Markets Weekly June 17

朋友们，大家好。

Hello, my friends.

今天是6月17日。

Today is June 17.

我是约瑟夫，这里是每周市场综述。

My name is Joseph, and this is markets weekly.

这周我们要聊三件事。

This week, we're gonna talk about three things.

首先，我们要讨论这波涨势是不是终于要结束了。

First, we're gonna talk about whether or not the rally is finally over.

其次，我们会更新一下财政部一般账户（TGA）是如何被重新补充的。

Secondly, we will give an update on how the TGA is being refilled.

最后，我们会回顾一下过去一周央行的表态，而且这次表态还挺多的。

And lastly, we'll review some of the central bank speak that happened this past week, and there was a lot of it.

好的。

Okay.

先从这波上涨说起。

Starting with the rally.

过去几周，大家也看到了，股市只涨不跌。

Now, over the past few weeks, as we've seen, the stock market only goes up.

在我看来，这是个非常非常危险的信号。

And from my perspective, that's been a very, very dangerous, development.

你肯定不希望股市一路直线上涨，因为那说明市场有点狂热，有点不稳定。

You never want the stock market to go straight up because that that suggests that there's some sort of mania, some sort of instability.

而且通常，就像珠穆朗玛峰一样，如果一边看起来直上直下，另一边往往会有很多向下的波动。

And usually, you know, just like Mount Everest, if it looks like it's going straight up on one side, on the other side, it's oftentimes a lot of downward volatility.

现在，我尊重的一些非常聪明的人认为我们应该非常谨慎，他们是从期权的角度来看待这个问题的。

Now, some of the really smart people that I respect are thinking that we should be really cautious, and they're looking at this from the perspective of options.

就像我们通过GameStop的伽马挤压等事件学到的，期权在推动股价方面起着重要作用。

So as we've all learned through the, for example, GameStop gamma squeeze and so forth, options play a big role in driving stock prices.

周五，我们看到指数略有下跌，而这正好赶上了一个重要的期权到期日。

On Friday, we saw the indexes down a bit and that coincided with a major options expiry.

在期权世界里，有周度期权、月度到期的期权，但真正的大规模期权到期日是季度性的。

So in the options world, you have weekly options, you had monthly expiring options, but the really big options expiry dates are quarterly.

这些到期日通常有大量的未平仓合约。

So that's Those are the expiration dates that are, that have a lot of open interest.

我从研究像Jim Carsohn、Spark Gamma、SqueezeMetrix这些非常聪明的人那里学到，期权影响底层股票市场的机制是通过做市商的对冲操作。

Now, what I've learned from studying really smart people like Jim Carsohn, Spark Gamma, SqueezeMetrix is that the mechanism through which the options affect the underlying, stock market is through market maker hedging.

从结构上看，真正的资金投资者持有看跌期权多头和看涨期权空头。

So structurally speaking, the real money investors, they are long puts and short calls.

假设你管理一个十亿美元的投资组合。

So let's say that you manage a billion dollar portfolio.

那你得对冲一些下行风险。

Well, you gotta hedge some of that downside.

对吧？

Right?

所以你会去买看跌期权。

So you go and you buy puts.

可能为了抵消一些买看跌期权的成本，或者赚点收入，你会卖出看涨期权。

And maybe to offset some of the costs of the puts and maybe to earn a little bit of income, you sell calls.

但你的看涨期权是有保护的，因为你实际持有那些标的股票。

But your calls are covered because you actually own the underlying stocks.

当大资金机构这样结构性操作时，显然他们得跟别人交易，而那个人通常是做市商。

Now, with when the real money community does this in a structural way, obviously, they have to trade with someone and that someone is usually a market maker.

所以做市商接下了这笔交易的另一边。

So market makers take the other side of this trade.

他们做空看跌期权，做多看涨期权。

They are short puts and long calls.

但做市商跟投机者不一样。

But market makers are are not like, speculators.

他们不是想通过方向性敞口来赚钱。

They they're not trying to get make money through directional exposure.

他们想赚的是交易手续费。

What they're trying to do is to make money off of the transaction fees.

所以当他们持有期权多头或空头时，他们会通过买卖标的资产来对冲。

And so when they're when they are either long options or short options, they go and they hedge that by buying or selling the the underlying.

比如说，假设那些真正的资金投资者从做市商那里买了一大堆看跌期权。

For example, let's say the let's say the real money investors, of course, bought a whole bunch of puts from the market makers.

那么做市商就是看跌期权的卖方。

So the market makers are short puts.

这意味着如果股市下跌，看跌期权会变得更值钱，也就是说，做市商在卖出的看跌期权上会亏损更多。

Now, that means that if the stock market goes down, well, the puts become more valuable, that is to say the short puts, become more of a loss towards for the market makers.

但做市商不想押注方向，他们只想赚取手续费。

Now the market makers, they don't want to speculate on direction, they're only there to make their fees.

所以当他们卖出看跌期权时，他们必须通过做空股票来对冲。

So when they are short puts, they have to hedge themselves by shorting stocks.

好的。

Okay.

所以这意味着，当市场下跌时，从做市商的角度来看，他们在卖出的看跌期权上亏钱，但在做空的股票上赚钱，所以他们是对冲的。

So the mark so that means that when the market declines, from the market bankers perspective, they are losing money on their short puts, but they're making money on their short stock, so they are so they are hedged.

现在的问题是，根据他们的期权敞口，他们需要卖出多少股票？

Now now the question is, of course, how much stock do they have to sell, given their options exposure?

这实际上会有很大的变化。

Now that is actually going to vary a lot.

这取决于隐含波动率在哪里，当然，还有距离到期日还有多少天。

It's going to vary, depending upon where implied volatility is, and of course, how many days they are left towards expiry.

因为距离到期日越远，期权最终变成实值的可能性就越大，所以做空看跌期权的做市商可能会面临亏损。

Because the more days there are towards expiry, the more probability it is that eventually the options will end up in the money, and so the market maker who is short puts might end up with a loss.

所以当距离到期日还有很长时间时，在其他条件相同的情况下，我例子中做空看跌期权的做市商需要卖出更多的股票。

So when there's a lot of time towards expiry, the all things equal, the market maker who is short puts in my example is gonna have to short more stock.

但随着期权到期日的临近，看跌期权变成实值的时间越来越少。

But as we approach options expiry, there's less and less time for that put position to become in the money.

所以当我们接近这些大型期权到期日时，结构性做空看跌期权的做市商群体必须逐步买回他们为对冲该头寸而卖出的股票。

So as we approach these big options expiry days, the market making community who was structurally short puts has to gradually buy back, the stock they sold to hedge that position.

这些资金流在期权到期前对市场非常有利。

And those flows are very supportive for the market heading into these option expiries.

不过要说明的是，市场波动可能很大，交易商的持仓情况也可能各不相同。

Now, to be clear, the market can move a lot and the dealers can be be positioned differently.

但这次期权到期前，股价一路直线上涨，所以那些看跌期权变得越来越不值钱了。

But now as we go into this options expiry though, the stock bracket has gone straight up, and so those puts are becoming less and less valuable.

而且随着时间推移，它们变成实值的可能性也越来越小。

And as time as time declines, also less and less likely to to be in the money.

所以期权做市商正在买回他们最初卖出的股票空头头寸，这在过去一段时间里对市场形成了支撑。

And so the options makers are buying back their short stock position that they had initially initiated, and that's been supportive for the market over the past time.

不过，在六月份期权到期之后，未平仓合约基本被清理和重置了，所以那些资金流会暂时消失，这样市场出现下跌的可能性就增加了。

So, now though, after June options expiry, the open interest is is more or less cleaned and reset, and so there's more of a so those flows go away for a while, and so there's more of a possibility, for us to have some, downside moves.

现在期权市场还有第二件事，我来播放一段对TD的吉姆的采访。

Now, the second thing that's happening in the options market, and, I'll play this interview from from Jim with TD now.

最后，波动率上升了。

Lastly, vol up.

波动率供应开始变得不稳定。

Vol supply is becoming unpinned.

所有那些做空看涨期权的人，都对着自己的股票卖出了看涨期权。

Calls all the call short interest people wrote calls against all their stock.

所有那些一直在进行的波动率卖出。

All the, selling of vol that's been happening.

现在正被股票回购挤压出局。

It is now, being squeezed out by stock replacement.

你知道这些看涨期权有多便宜。

You know how cheap these calls are.

市场上存在波动率买盘的基本面支撑。

There's a fundamental basis for vol bid out there.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

你现在看到了。

You're seeing it.

我们看到大量大宗订单涌入，买入波动率，分布在各个不同的部分。

We're seeing big block orders coming in buying vol and all kinds of different parts of the distribution.

交易商手里的波动率已经不再被压制了。

Vol in dealers hands is no longer pinned.

它正在迅速离开那个位置，这是个危险的局面。

It is quickly moving away from that place, and that is a dangerous recipe.

在真正的资金投资圈里，有很多人在卖出看涨期权，所以他们成了市场上波动率的结构性供应方。

You have a lot of people in the real money investment community that that are selling calls, and so they are a structural supply of volatility in the markets.

现在，再从做市商的角度来看一下。

Now, look at this from a market maker's perspective again.

很多真正的资金投资者在卖出看涨期权，这意味着做市商群体持有大量看涨期权。

So a lot of real money people are selling calls, so that means the market making community is long calls.

所以做市商基本上是多头伽马。

So that means the market maker is basically long gamma.

假设现在就是这种情况。

So let's say that that's the position right now.

假设股市稍微上涨一点。

Let's say that the stock market rises a bit.

如果股市稍微上涨，那意味着做市商们，嗯，他们从看涨期权多头仓位中赚了一点钱。

Well, if the stock market rises a bit, that means that the the market makers, well, they're making a little bit of money off their long call position.

但当然，他们不是靠预测方向来赚钱的。

But of course, they're not in the business of speculating on direction.

他们只是为了赚取手续费。

They're there simply for their fees.

所以当市场稍微上涨，他们的看涨期权多头仓位价值增加时，他们会卖出标的资产来对冲。

So as the market rises a bit and their long call position increases in value, they sell the underlying, to offset that.

这给市场带来了稳定性。

So that provides stability in the market.

所以当波动率供应充足，或者说隐含波动率真的很低时，主要指数很难大幅波动，因为一旦波动，做市商就会反向操作来稳定市场。

So when vol is well supplied or that is to say with implied vol is really low, it's more difficult for the major indexes to move a lot, simply because as it moves, the market makers push against that move to stabilize it.

但吉姆现在说的是，因为有这么多人，你知道，做YOLO式的看涨期权押注，或者只是通过不断买入更多看涨期权来投机，这压倒了市场上结构性看涨期权卖家的波动率供应。

But, what Jim is saying now is that because we have all these people who are doing, you know, YOLO call bets or maybe just speculating by buying more and more calls, it's overwhelming the supply of of volatility, the structural call sellers in the markets.

这推高了隐含波动率，从而允许指数出现更大的波动。

And that's making well implied volatility go higher and that permits larger moves in the index.

这也是未来需要谨慎的另一个潜在原因。

And that's another potential reason to be cautious going forward.

这并不意味着市场会崩盘，但确实表明一些支撑市场的因素似乎已经不存在了。

It doesn't mean we're gonna crash, but but it does mean that some of the things that have been supporting the market don't seem to be there anymore.

好的。

Okay.

我们要讨论的第二件事是补充财政部一般账户。

The second thing we're gonna talk about is refilling the treasury general account.

之前我们提到过，财政部一般账户大约有200亿美元，美国财政部的目标是在本月底前将其提高到约5500亿美元，很多人担心这笔钱会从银行系统中抽走，也就是说会造成流动性紧缩，对市场产生负面影响。

Now, earlier we talked about that the treasury general account was around $20,000,000,000 and the US treasury had a goal to raise that to, about $550,000,000,000 by the end of this month, and many people were worried that that money would come out of the banking system, that is to say it would be a liquidity drain and that would have a negative impact on the market.

不过，截至周五，财政部一般账户已经大幅上升。

Well, as of Friday, the treasury general account has risen significantly.

它从大约200亿美元的低点上升到了2500亿美元。

It's gone from, you know, the low of of about 20,000,000,000 to 250,000,000,000.

所以财政部一般账户已经进行了有意义的重建。

So there's been a meaningful rebuild in the treasury general account.

与此同时，看起来逆回购工具的规模下降了很多。

And at the same time, it looks like the reverse repo facility has declined a lot.

所以，实际上这周它首次跌破了两万亿美元，这是很长时间以来的第一次。

So it, actually broke below $2,000,000,000,000 for the first time in a long time this past week.

这两件事放在一起看，说明到目前为止，财政部一般账户的重建大部分并不是来自银行体系，而是来自逆回购工具里的资金，这对市场来说当然是中性的。

Now that together suggests that so far, a big chunk of the rebuild in the treasury general account has not come out of the banking sector, but it's come out of money in the reverse repo facility, which is of course neutral for markets.

所以，之前担心的流动性抽离似乎并没有发生。

So that feared liquidity drain doesn't seem to have happened.

现在，我觉得这有几个原因，而且我们在解读逆回购工具的变化时也需要谨慎。

Now, think there's a couple reasons for this, and we also have to be cautious when we interpret what's happening with the reverse repo facility.

首先，你知道，市场上对这次流动性撤出有很多担忧。

First off, you know, there was a lot of concern in the markets of of this liquidity withdrawal.

我们有大投行写了一些吓人的报告，说可能会发生什么。

We we had big investment banks writing, scary pieces as to what could potentially happen.

而美联储和财政部实际上对市场动态很了解，并且会做出相应的回应。

And the Fed and the Treasury, they are actually in tune with what happens in the markets, and they respond to it.

债务上限解决后，美国财政部发表声明，调整了补充财政部一般账户的计划。

And after the debt ceiling was resolved, the US Treasury came out with a statement, modifying their plans for refilling the TGA.

最初他们计划在六月底前发行5500亿美元，后来下调到大约4250亿美元。

Initially, they had planned sold in 550,000,000,000 by the end of June, they revised that down to about $4.25.

所以他们降低了目标，变得不那么激进了。

So they lowered their target to become more less ambitious.

其次，他们调整了票据发行，更侧重于超短期票据。

And secondly, they adjusted their bill issuance to focus more on the very short dated bills.

我看这个情况，觉得他们这么做可能是想吸引更多货币市场基金来购买这些票据。

Now, I look at this and I'm thinking that they're probably doing this because they want to attract more money market funds to purchase the bills.

货币市场基金对购买较长期票据有些犹豫，因为他们不确定利率的走向。

Now, money market funds have expressed some hesitation in purchasing longer dated bills because they don't know the path of interest rates.

他们不想买，比如说，六个月期的票据，然后发现美联储加息比预期更激进。

They don't want to buy, let's say, a six month bill and then see that the Fed is actually much more aggressive in their rate hikes than expected.

那样的话，他们就会面临一些亏损，他们不喜欢那样。

Then they would, they would be sitting on some losses and they don't like that.

所以财政部解决这个担忧的一个办法，就是发行大量期限很短的国库券，比如说六周的。

So one of the ways that the treasury could overcome that concern is to issue a whole bunch of bills that are very short dated, let's say, six weeks.

他们确实这么做了，这可能会让货币市场基金更愿意参与国库券拍卖。

So they've done that and that that's I that could help money market funds participate more in bill auctions.

不过，我并不认为所有这些资金都来自逆回购工具，我仍然觉得一部分会来自银行体系，一部分会来自逆回购工具。

Now, I don't actually think that all of this is coming out of the RRP, and and I still think that part of it will come out of the banking system and part of it will come out of the RRP.

对于逆回购工具的下降，你得非常谨慎地解读，因为这不一定意味着货币基金去买国库券了。

Now, the drop in the RRP, you have to be very cautious interpreting it because it's not necessarily money funds going to buy bills.

很可能首先是因为6月15日是企业季度纳税日。

It's very likely first that on June 15, we had a, you know, quarterly corporate tax payment date.

而货币市场基金基本上就是企业财务主管手里的大笔现金。

And money market funds are basically just, you know, big lots of cash, for corporate treasurers.

所以当企业财务主管要交税时，他们会从货币市场基金里取钱，然后去支付给美国政府。

So when a corporate treasurer wants to make tax payments, they go and they, take money out of their money market fund and then go and pay the US government.

然后货币市场基金就从逆回购工具里取钱，交给企业财务主管，企业财务主管再用这笔钱去交税。

So, the money market fund then takes money out of the IRP, gives it to the corporate treasurer, and the corporate treasurer then pays taxes.

这是其中的一部分原因。

That's part of it.

第二个原因是，6月15日有一笔大规模的国债付息结算。

The second part of it is that on June 15, we had a major coupon settlement.

这意味着交易商们支付了大量长期国债的款项。

So that means that a whole lot lot of long dated treasuries were paid for by the dealer community.

交易商们支付这些国债购买款项的方式，是在回购市场上借款，而回购市场上最大的出借人当然就是货币市场基金。

The way that the dealer community pays for these, coupon purchases is by borrowing in the repo market, and the biggest lender in the repo market is of course, the money market funds.

这一点我们也可以从公开数据中看到。

And we see this in publicly available data as well.

6月15日回购量激增，这很可能表明货币市场基金从逆回购工具中取出资金，借给交易商，然后交易商用这些资金来结算他们对美国财政部的付款。

Repo volumes spiked high on June 15, and that likely suggests that money market funds were taking money out of the reverse repo facility and lending it to, dealers who then took the money to settle, their payments to the US treasury.

所以从某种意义上说，这确实在消耗逆回购工具，但这些消耗往往是暂时的，而由国债发行引起的消耗则持续时间更长，因为回购贷款通常是隔夜的。

So in a sense, it is draining the RRP, but these drains tend to be temporary, whereas the drains coming from bills tend to be longer dated since the repo loans tend to be overnight.

一旦购买了国债的交易商将这些国债卖给他们的客户，他们就不再需要从货币市场基金那里借钱了。

And once dealers, who bought the treasury securities sell them to their clients, they no longer need to borrow money from the money market funds anymore.

所以我预计本周逆回购工具的使用量会回升到两万亿美元以上，但随着时间的推移，从逆回购工具中流出的资金会比预期的更多，因为财政部正在调整其发行策略来鼓励这种情况。

So I would expect the reverse repo facility bounce to bounce back above $2,000,000,000,000, this week, but over time though, there's gonna be, there there's going to be more money coming out of the reverse repo facility than expected because the treasury is adjusting their issuance to encourage that.

现在，我们要讨论的最后一件事是过去一周所有央行的表态。

Now, the last thing we'll talk about is all the central bank speak we have that happened this past week.

我们召开了欧洲央行会议，也从英国央行和美联储理事沃勒那里得到了一些有用的信息。

So we had the ECB meeting, and we also had, some good information from the Bank of England and, Fed governor Waller.

欧洲央行加息了25个基点，在新闻发布会上，拉加德女士强烈暗示他们将在下次会议上再次加息。

So the ECB hiked 25 basis points and during the press conference, Madame Lagarde strongly strongly signaled that they're they're gonna hike again the next meeting.

那么，他们为什么要加息呢？

Now, why are they hiking?

说实话，这跟我们在世界各地看到的情况是一样的。

Well, honestly, it's it's the same thing we see throughout the world.

通胀一直居高不下，他们的工具似乎没有达到预期的效果。

Inflation has been stubbornly high and their tools don't seem to be working as well as they thought they would.

欧洲央行尤其担心工资增长。

The ECB in particular is very concerned about wage growth.

所以欧元区的工资增长非常强劲，大约5%，而且不仅如此，生产率还在下降。

So wage growth in the Eurozone, has been very strong about 5%, and not just that, productivity has been declining.

所以这和我们在澳大利亚看到的情况是一样的，我们之前讨论过。

So this is the same thing that's happening in Australia, which we talked about earlier.

所以如果你付给工人更多的钱，而工人生产的却更少，那么你的劳动力成本就在上升。

So if you're paying a worker more money and the workers producing less, then your labor costs are rising.

这意味着，你知道，基本上你面临的情况是，工资的膨胀程度超过了工资增长本身所暗示的，这可能会影响到经济的其他部分，比如服务业通胀，这似乎就是他们现在正在经历的情况。

And that means that, you know, that that means that basically you have a situation where your wages are inflating more than than is suggested by wage growth, and that could feed into other other parts of the economy like services inflation, which seems to be what they're doing right now.

所以他们试图提前应对这个问题。

And so they're trying to get ahead of this.

到目前为止，很多通胀都来自能源和食品等领域，这些正在下降，但工资方面似乎很顽固，就像美国和其他许多国家一样。

A lot of inflation so far has been in things like energy and food, that's coming down, but the wages side that seems resilient just like it is in The US and many other countries as well.

例如，英国央行最近暗示，他们也将不得不比预期更大幅度地加息。

Bank of England, for example, recently is suggesting that they're going to have to hike rates higher than expected as well.

为什么？

Why?

同样的问题。

Same problem.

工资增长依然非常强劲，上个季度甚至似乎还在加速。

Wage growth continues to be very strong and even seem to accelerate this last quarter.

我们面临全球性的劳动力短缺，部分原因是人口结构变化。

We have a global labor shortage driven in part by demographics.

所以，尽管这些央行努力尝试，他们还是很难压低工资，因为即使他们试图减缓经济活动，但加入劳动力市场的人不如以前多了。

And so, try as they try as they are, these central banks are having trouble getting wages lower because even as they're trying to slow down economic activity, you know, we just don't have as many people joining labor force as as we used to.

所以这会是个长期问题。

So, that's going to be a persistent problem.

最后，回到美联储，美联储理事沃勒发表了一次非常鹰派的讲话。

And lastly, coming back to the Fed, we had Fed governor Waller give a speech that was very hawkish.

你们可能也发现了，沃勒是个大鹰派。

As you guys may have found out, Waller is a great hawk.

最近，沃勒在谈论金融稳定和货币政策之间的权衡。

Now, Waller is talking about the trade off more recently, between financial stability and monetary policy.

有一种观点认为，如果你加息加得太猛，虽然能控制住通胀，但可能会在金融系统里搞出问题来，那也不好。

There is a line of thinking that if you hike rates too aggressively, well, you could get inflation under control, but then you risk breaking something in the financial system and, that would be bad too.

所以你得在对抗通胀和金融稳定之间找到平衡。

So you have to balance this pursuit of fighting inflation with financial stability.

现在，沃勒也提到了这一点，但他同时指出，今年早些时候，我们放缓了加息步伐，是因为担心银行业不稳定，也许银行会在放贷上大幅收缩。

Now, Waller is is nodding to this, but then he's also noting that, you know, earlier in the year, we we moderated our rate hike path because we're worried about instability in the banking sector and perhaps that the banks might retrench a lot in their lending.

所以从某种意义上说，我们不需要像之前想的那么多次加息。

And so in a sense, we won't need as many rate hikes as we thought earlier.

然后他说，嗯，我们其实不太确定银行是否因为三月份的事情而收紧了贷款。

Then he says that, well, we it's not really clear that we've seen banks tightening their lending, due to what happened in March.

他们一直都很紧。

Now they have always been tight.

他们已经在过去几个月里，因为经济放缓和利率上升而收紧贷款了，但三月份的事件似乎并没有带来那么大的影响。

They have already been tightening their lending for several months in response to a slowing economy and higher interest rates, but it doesn't seem like the March episode is having that big of an impact on it.

所以，也许我们今年早些时候的那种谨慎是没有必要的。

So so, you know, maybe that caution we had earlier in the year isn't warranted.

他接着说，你知道，我们不能仅仅因为少数几个在管理银行方面做得非常糟糕的人，就改变货币政策的实施方式。

He then goes on to say that, you know, we really can't conduct monetary policy simply because, we really shouldn't change the conduct conduct of monetary policy simply because we have a of a few people, who did a really bad job in managing their bank.

我们必须根据通胀目标来实施货币政策，不能仅仅因为一些人搞砸了就改变我们的政策实施方式。

You know, we have to conduct monetary policy, with in light of our inflation mandate and not just change it because, change how we conduct policy simply because some people screwed up.

我还想指出，最新的点阵图显示，联邦公开市场委员会几乎所有成员都同意今年进一步加息，这告诉我，他们在观察银行体系的数据时，并没有看到显著的恶化。

And I would also note though that the most recent dot plot had basically everyone on the FOMC signing up for for more rate hikes this year, and that tells me that they are looking at the data in their in their banking system, and they're not actually not seeing significant deterioration either.

所以他们才放心地预期更多加息。

So that's why they're comfortable in pricing in more hikes.

这也是我在四月份写到的内容。

And this is also what I wrote about in April.

现在看来，这正在成为现实。

So, it looks like it's coming to fruition.

好的。

Okay.

这就是我今天准备的全部内容。

So that's all I've prepared for today.

如果你喜欢我做的内容，记得点赞和订阅。

If you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe.

当然，如果你想了解更多关于金融体系和市场的知识，可以看看我的免费在线课程，或者访问我的博客fedguide.com。

And of course, if you're interested in learning more about the financial system and markets, check out my free online courses or my blog at fedguide.com.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢大家。

Thanks so much, guys.

下次再聊。

Talk to you soon.