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您正在收听《零售声音碎片》。
You're listening to Retail Sound Bites.
大家好,欢迎收听凯度零售声音碎片播客,本期是2月2日那一周的节目。
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Kantar Retail Sound Bites podcast for the week of February 2.
我是巴里·托马斯,凯度全球高级思想领袖,主要为客户提供全球零售、营销和未来商业领域的咨询服务。
I'm Barry Thomas, our senior global thought leader serving clients on global commerce, marketing, and future commerce, tenants topics.
非常感谢您收听本期节目,我的搭档蕾切尔·达顿也会全程陪伴大家。
Thank you so much for tuning in and joining us on every podcast is my pod partner, Rachel Dalton.
大家好。
Hi, everyone.
我是蕾切尔·达顿,凯度美洲区零售洞察负责人。
I'm Rachel Dalton, head of retail insights for The Americas here at Kantar.
我们的播客旨在分享北美及全球零售和餐饮行业的最新洞察与实用信息。
Our podcast is intended to share knowledge and insights on both North America and international retail and restaurant verticals.
每期节目我们都会先回顾过去两周内最具创新性和影响力的行业动态,然后邀请凯度专家或特邀嘉宾,深入探讨当前商业领域的重要议题。
We kick off each podcast with the news and notes section to share innovative and impactful stories from the past two weeks, and then we introduce our Kantar experts or guest speakers to share insights on critical topics in commerce today.
今天,我们非常高兴邀请到食品研究所的管理合伙人兼首席执行官蔡秉翰。
And today, we are very pleased to welcome, Brian Choi, managing partner and CEO of The Food Institute.
不过在那之前,还是交给巴里,来正式开启我们的新闻与动态环节。
But first, back over to you, Barry, to officially kick us off with our news and notes.
没问题。
Glad to do it.
布莱恩真的很棒。
Brian is awesome.
很高兴他今天能来参加。
So glad to have him on today.
对了,蕾切尔,说说你这个周末。
And a little bit about the weekend, Rachel.
我刚从佛罗里达州的杰克逊维尔回来。
I just came back from Jacksonville, Florida.
很高兴跟大家分享一下那边的天气情况。
I'm pleased to report the weather.
这时候真该大家都来佛罗里达。
This is this is when we all need to be in Florida.
没错,Rachel。
I mean, Rachel Yes.
就是啊,
It's, like
你知道的,
you know, it's
温度才65度。
65 degrees.
阳光明媚。
It's sunny.
到处都是加拿大和中西部、东北部的车牌。
All the Canadian license plates, all the Midwest, so many from the Northeast.
夏天当然不想待这儿,但现在真是时候了,Rachel。
I mean, you you don't wanna be down there in the summer, but now is the time, Rachel.
那真是美极了。
So it was just beautiful.
你一定会喜欢的。
You would have liked it.
另外呢,我当时在学开船什么的。
Then secondly, you know, I was learning how to drive a boat or something.
是的。
Yes.
特别有意思。
Very exciting.
这可是个全新的挑战啊,巴里。
That's a whole new challenge, Barry.
没错。
Yes.
我得说,我开得比莱斯利强一点,连她自己都承认了。
And I will say I'm a little better at that than Leslie, even she stated that.
但船是没有刹车的,蕾切尔。
But there's no there's no brakes on a boat, Rachel.
我之前还真不知道。
I didn't know that, actually.
是的。
Yes.
挺有意思的。
Interesting.
明白了。
Okay.
你只能往前开、挂空挡、或者倒车。
You just kinda go forward, neutral, reverse.
很多时候都是在空挡里晃悠。
There's a lot of neutral going on.
挺有意思的。
Interesting.
而且停船还挺难的。
And parking is kinda hard.
最后要提一下,我们和八个朋友在杰克逊维尔聚了一次。
The last last thing to mention is we got together with, like, eight of our friends down in Jacksonville.
我们看了 yacht rock 这个大牌乐队,他们来自亚特兰大。
We saw, you know, yacht rock, the big yacht rock group, which is out of Atlanta.
Rachel 特别搞笑。
And Rachel was so funny.
我感觉自己一下子变年轻了,因为现场观众里全是七十岁、八十岁的老人,都在跟着唱 Brandy。
I felt so young because I would say the audience I have never seen so many 70 year olds, 80 year olds singing brandy.
就是那样。
Like that.
我们都忍不住说,哎呀。
I mean, we were all like, hey.
我们这群人其实还挺年轻的。
Like, we're we're kinda young here.
这不错。
This is good.
所以你看,就是这样。
So there you go.
听起来真有意思。
Well, that sounds like a blast.
对。
Yeah.
我记得好几年前,我去佛罗里达参加过一个会议。
I remember a number of years back, I went to a conference in Florida.
那会儿正好是二月。
It was smack in the February.
这儿冷得要命。
It was so cold here.
我一下飞机,差点哭了。
And I was, like, almost crying when I got off the plate.
我特别渴望温暖和阳光。
I was so happy for warmth and sun.
不过呢,我其实也喜欢雪。
But, I mean, I do love the snow.
雪很漂亮,冬天我也享受它,但今年实在太冷了。
It is beautiful, and I enjoy it in the winter, but it's been a a very cold one this year.
所以我挺期待天气转暖,至少能升到零度以上。
So I'm kinda looking forward to when it breaks and we have some warm at least above freezing temperatures.
那确实不错。
That would be good.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
不过,我们上个周末过得特别开心。
But, yeah, we we had a great weekend.
因为天气实在太冷,我二儿子的滑雪俱乐部周五晚上活动取消了,所以我们这个周末过得比较轻松。
Due to the extremely cold temperatures, my middle son's ski club was was postponed on Friday night, so we, had kind of a more relaxing, weekend.
不过我们参加了两场网球比赛。
But we had a couple tennis tournaments.
我大儿子和二儿子现在都参加USTA的赛事了。
My oldest and my middle both play now in USTA tournaments.
一场在纽约,一场在新泽西。
One in New York this weekend, one in New Jersey.
于是我和我丈夫分工合作,各自去照看一场。
So my husband and I divided and conquered, those.
特别有意思。
It was very fun.
之后我们还去看了一场本地的篮球赛。
And then we did a little, local basketball game.
我们住得离费尔菲尔德大学和昆尼皮亚克大学都很近。
So we're close to Fairfield University, Quinnipiac, University.
所以我们和孩子们一起做了这些,特别开心,之后还吃了点鸡翅,算是家庭晚餐后的小放松。
So we did that with the kids, which is a blast, and and did, a little wings after a little family dinner kind of thing.
整个周末过得特别轻松,真是太好了。
So it was, a very chill kinda weekend, which was great.
天哪,蕾切尔。
God, Rachel.
我以前也说过,当别人问我,你最羡慕什么的时候,
People I've said this before, but when people say, well, what are you jealous of?
我最羡慕像蕾切尔这样有孩子的家庭。
I'm jealous of people like Rachel with the kids.
去看网球比赛,为他们加油,然后再去篮球场,这些真的特别有意思。
I mean, that's so much fun going to the tennis match, cheering them on, and then heading over to basketball, etcetera.
这些才是真正珍贵的回忆。
I mean, those are some of the very best memories.
我真的超爱听你分享这些日常。
I I just I just love your updates.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Thank you.
好的,拉切尔。
Alright, Rachel.
那我们开始说说新闻和动态吧,六条新闻动态。
Well, let's get off to news and notes, six pack of news and notes.
我先讲一个,至少在领英上,可能是我发过被转发最多的帖子。
I'm gonna start it off with probably a story that, for me, at least on LinkedIn, is the most ever forwarded on story I think I've ever posted on LinkedIn.
我想想,呃,这个帖子大概被转发了十五次。
I think I had, excuse me, maybe 15 forwards on this post.
哇。
Wow.
天哪。
Woah.
我当时在看这个报道。
Like, I was I was looking at it.
我到底在这儿做得怎么样?
I got, what am I doing good here?
其实重点不在我,而是路透社对沃尔玛药房的报道做得特别出色。
So I was it's less about me, but Reuters did a phenomenal job at just talking about Walmart's pharmacy.
沃尔玛药房本来就是吸引客流和创造价值的关键,他们最近提高薪酬的举措,恰恰体现了他们的规模和人才优势。
I mean, Walmart Pharmacy is such a driver for traffic and value, and their latest, you know, pay move is is kind of just speaking to their scale and talent advantage.
他们正在提高药房技术员的薪资。
They're boosting pay for pharmacy technicians.
我的意思是,这些员工
I mean, these are the people that
才是真正承担大量工作的人
are really doing much of
时薪能达到四十几美元。
the work with earning up to $40 to $42 an hour.
新的团队主管岗位平均时薪接近30美元。
And the new team lead roles are averaging nearly $30 an hour.
相比之下,如果你看看CVS和沃尔格林的药剂师助理薪资,大概也就16到18美元左右。
So by comparison, if you think look at, you know, pharmacy tech pay at CVS and Walgreens, you know, that's kinda closer to, you know, around 16 to maybe $18 an hour.
这不仅仅是工资问题。
So it's more than a wage story.
这是零售业融入医疗健康带来的增长与规模效应。
It's a growth and scale story as health care comes to retail.
我们知道,人才就是战略,而沃尔玛正是利用自己的规模优势提升了行业标准。
As we know, talent is a strategy, and they're just Walmart's just using that scale to raise the bar.
我想特别提一下。
I do wanna give a little shout out.
我们有个新的GLP-1研究,由Lee主导,一直在持续更新数据。
You know, we have this new GLP one study that we're constantly refreshing waves that lee leads.
你知道吗,推动患者换药并带动购物的头号药房是哪家?
And guess what is the number one pharmacy that is driving switcher switching, you know, with shopping?
是沃尔玛。
It's Walmart.
当GLP-1使用者开始使用这类药物时,他们最常换去的药房就是沃尔玛,瑞秋,因为这些药和配套服务都是打包在一起的。
When GLP users go on GLP one, the number one retailer they generally switch to just because of the drugs and everything around that's bundled to them is Walmart, Rachel.
他们的药房业务简直太强势了。
I mean, they are just killing it with their pharmacy.
没错。
Yeah.
要知道,在美国,医疗健康才是真正的主战场。
I mean and that's the place to win is health care, as we know in The US.
市场上有几家大玩家。
Like, there there are the big players.
沃尔玛和亚马逊正打算大举切入,因为这个行业确实需要变革。
Walmart and Amazon are looking to really disrupt because it needs disruption.
这是一步真正的战略棋局。
And, that's a real strategic play.
现在全国上下都缺人手,尤其是医疗行业,这事儿我们都知道。
Like, it and we and there's, you know, we have labor shortages across the country, especially in health care.
如果你能留住优秀的药房技术员和医疗人员,那确实是个非常关键的优势。
So if you can keep really great, you know, pharmacy technicians and, health care employees in your ecosystem, that's a huge kind of winning strategy there.
这步棋确实很聪明。
So definitely very smart move.
亚马逊在医疗业务上也一直在悄悄布局。
And, you know, Amazon, of course, is doing a a lot behind, their health care initiatives as well.
这对零售商来说,机会真的很大。
So huge opportunities, for for retailers.
没错。
So yeah.
巴里,我第一条新闻是来自《商业内幕》的,讲的是TikTok的最新动态。
So, Barry, my first piece of news is, on a Business Insider, and it's about the TikTok announcement.
终于,TikTok把部分美国资产出售给一个投资集团的交易正式完成了。
You know, finally, the deal has closed, to sell a part of, TikTok's US assets to a group of investors.
字节跳动作为TikTok的母公司,将保留不到20%的股份,也就是19.9%。
So ByteDance, which is TikTok's parent company, will retain just under 20% shares, like nineteen nine 19.9% share of the company.
但这笔交易本质上是一个由三家主要投资者组成的合资企业,每家各占TikTok15%的股份。
But the deal is basically a joint venture made up of three main investors that will each own 15% of the stake in TikTok.
一家是甲骨文公司。
That's Oracle.
一家是私募股权公司银湖资本,还有一家是总部位于阿布扎比的MGX投资公司。
That's a private equity firm Silver Lake, and it's the investment firm MGX, which is based out of Abu Dhabi.
其余约35.1%的股份,则由一个投资者联盟持有。
And then the rest of the company, about 35.1% share, will be owned by a consortium of investors.
还有一些个人投资者,比如迈克尔·戴尔家族的投资机构也持有股份。
And there's some individuals like Michael Dell's family investments are owning shares as well.
但这个合资企业的核心目的,是为了保障美国用户的隐私数据,建立信任,提升安全性。
But, basically, the whole point of this joint venture is to secure US user data, bring trust, more safety.
他们关注的主要是内容审核这类问题。
They're looking at content moderation and things like that.
字节跳动仍然会参与其中,负责抖音小店、广告和营销,这很好,但也实现了美国政府当初的目标——保护美国用户,看来确实做到了。
ByteDance will still be involved, with TikTok shop, with all of the advertising and marketing, which is great, but then it does enable the the goal of the of the US government was, again, protecting, US users, and it looks like that has happened.
所以这真是一个令人振奋的进展。
So pretty exciting move forward.
你知道吗,抖音小店,蕾切尔,真的特别重要。
You know, TikTok shop, Rachel, is just so important.
说白了,它已经是全球前五大电商增长渠道之一了。
I mean, generally, that's a top five ecommerce growth chain, let's just call it.
我看到过不同的数据,去年销售额超过了两千亿美元。
I've seen different numbers, over $20,000,000,000 last year.
我现在就能列出十家快消品公司,它们现在都有专门团队在对接抖音小店。
I can name right now 10 CPGs that have a team now calling on TikTok shop.
你想想看。
Think about that.
真的吗?
What?
是的
Yeah.
没错
Right.
正逐渐成为一个真正的链条
Kinda becoming a real chain.
我上周刚听说一件事
Now there is a I did hear just last week.
他们在供应链管理上有些变动,正在把品牌方转到自己的供应链解决方案上,这引发了一些问题
There's a bit of disruption happening, with how they're managing the supply chain, and they're kinda moving, you know, brands to their own supply chain solution that is causing some issues.
但说实话,电商这事儿我们聊了好久了
But, gosh, I mean, commerce, we talked about it forever.
对吧
Right?
你知道的,Rachel,关于中国
You know, Rachel, about China.
中国。
China.
现在确实已经到这儿了。
Well, it's kinda here now.
对吧?
Right?
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
当然了。
Definitely.
它已经变得非常庞大了,我们都知道,社交平台和社群建设现在才是关键,尤其是品牌曝光的重要途径。
It's it's become huge, and and we know the social space and building communities is kind of where it's at, especially for discovery for brand discovery.
所以,确实是令人振奋的消息。
So, yeah, exciting exciting news.
那我继续围绕这个主题,Rachel,讲讲腾讯进军中国市场的动向。
Well, I'm gonna keep it on the theme, Rachel, of China coming in from Tencent.
这是个每日综合资讯平台。
This is a pan daily.
如果你想了解亚洲和中国正在发生什么,PanDaily 绝对是首选。
If you ever wanted to, like, just know what kinda what's happening in Asia and China, PanDaily is fantastic.
这回讲的是腾讯,他们在测试一个叫‘Party Party’的东西——我发音可能不太准,Rachel——这标志着他们正大力进军AI驱动的社交网络。
So this is, about Tencent, and they're testing what's called, and I'm sure I'm pronouncing this not correctly, Rachel, a party a party, which is signaling a push into AI powered social networking.
他们把AI当作一个‘代理’融入社交场景,让群体互动和AI参与自然融合,这显然是他们在社交AI领域的新赌注。
And so this is where they have the AI, let's just call it agent into the social space that blends group interaction with AI participation, signaling its latest bet on social AI.
咱们在美国这边还没怎么看到这种趋势,但你知道的,中国在这方面通常都比Rachel领先一步。
Now see, we're not seeing that so much in The States, but it's usually you know, China's way ahead of Rachel.
对吧?
Right?
跟传统的一对一聊天机器人不同,腾讯是把AI嵌入多人社交场景里来实现这一切的。
So unlike traditional chatbots that focus on one to one conversations, which we're all familiar with, Tencent is using a multi sort of user social space to to do all this with.
在这个环境里,社交AI能主动参与你的群聊。
Within this environment, basically, the social AI can actively participate in your group chats.
它还能帮你润色消息,对吧,Rachel?
It will help right right, Rachel?
它能调节气氛,不管这具体指的是什么。
It helps set the mood, whatever that means.
这个我们先跳过,不细说了。
We'll we'll skip to ask about that.
就像个活动策划,或者更像一个……
Like a party planner or like a like like a more.
没错。
Yes.
还能执行各种任务。
And execute tasks.
它能当你们群聊里的智能助手,比如一家人共用的群组。
It can, you know, function as a smart assistant for your group chat, you know, let's say, a shared family space.
它能提醒群组成员完成某些活动。
It can set reminders for the group to do certain activities.
它还能帮着组织群组挑战。
It can help organize group challenges.
它能读取数据,帮你完成群组健身签到,协调各种活动。
It can read data and and help you with group fitness check ins and help coordinate activities.
我的意思是,社交AI,Rachel,就像中国流行的社交电商,也许这接下来也会在这里流行起来。
I mean, social AI, Rachel, just like social commerce in China, Maybe that's what's next over here.
你觉得呢?
What do you think?
对。
Yeah.
确实挺有意思的。
I mean, really interesting.
这简直是科技AI和人类渴望在社群中社交互动的完美结合,把大家聚在了一起。
It's sort of the perfect blend, right, of that tech AI and humans, like, wanting to interact socially in a community and pulling them together.
太有意思了。
Super interesting.
这可能也是我们未来的趋势,确实挺有意思的。
That's probably on the horizon for us as well, but that's very interesting.
挺酷的。
Pretty cool.
对。
Yeah.
真的很酷。
Very cool.
好的。
Okay.
接下来我要说的,是《华尔街日报》上关于亚马逊的一则公告,最近他们发了好几个消息。
So for me, next out of The Wall Street Journal, is the announcement on Amazon of which there have been a a bunch of announcements lately.
但这一条是关于杂货的。
But this one, is with regards to groceries.
所以,大概两周前他们宣布了,要关闭所有15家Amazon Go门店,以及57家Amazon Fresh门店。
So the announcement, oh, about two weeks ago now maybe, is that it's closing 15 of its Amazon Go stores, which is all of the Amazon Go stores and 57 Amazon Fresh stores.
同时,他们将重新聚焦杂货业务,重点放在当日送达服务上——这在亚马逊网站上已经大力推行,同时也扩大Whole Foods的门店网络。
And basically re refocusing its grocery strategy on same day delivery, which, which you're really leaning into on amazon.com, but also expanding Whole Foods Markets.
他们计划新开一些门店,继续扩展Whole Foods的规模。
There are plans to open, stores and continuing to expand Whole Foods.
亚马逊坦言,这些实体店始终没能打造出一个可规模化、有差异化优势的模式。
And Amazon basically cited it what it really wasn't able to create, like, a scalable differentiated model with these stores.
不过,他们打算把部分Fresh门店改造成Whole Foods。
But they will convert some of the fresh stores to Whole Foods.
他们将全力押注当日送达服务,我觉得这才是他们的核心战略,毕竟亚马逊在物流配送上本来就是行家。
They're really gonna lean into same day delivery, which I think is really their big bet because we know Amazon is an expert in fulfillment.
他们完全可以利用自己的配送网络,让线上购物几乎和去实体店购物一样快,你下单后,东西能快到你刚想出门去买,它就到家了。
And so they can really leverage their, their, fulfillment network to be be almost like it's brick and mortar and be able to deliver something to you almost as quickly as you can run out to the brick and mortar to get it.
我觉得,这正是亚马逊现在的方向,他们正全力以赴往这个方向走。
I mean, that's kind of, I think, where it's at with Amazon, and that's where they're they're really leaning hard.
目前,当日送达服务覆盖了大约2300个美国城市和城镇,但他们肯定会继续扩展,让更多人能把杂货和日用品一起下单配送。
Right now, same day delivery serves about 2,300 US cities and towns, but they're certainly going to expand and offer more opportunities for people to get groceries and general merchandise together in one basket.
另外还有一个消息,他们在芝加哥市场正测试一家超大型实体店,面积有23万平方英尺,卖的东西特别全——杂货、日用品、现成餐食什么都有。
And then, of course, another announcement was that that big big box brick and mortar that it's doing a test and learn around in the Chicago market, like a 230,000 square foot big box store that will sell everything, groceries, general merchandise, like fresh prepared foods, etcetera.
所以现在还不确定最后会怎样。
So not sure what will happen.
毕竟亚马逊一向喜欢不断试错、摸索,看看哪里能打开局面、实现增长,咱们就拭目以待吧。
I mean, Amazon is always testing and learning and trying to figure out where they can break in and grow, so we'll see there.
但说到杂货业务,他们确实在整合上走得更远,未来很明显会大力押注Whole Foods和当日送达服务。
But for grocery, for sure, they're further ahead with the integration plan, and it sounds like they're really gonna be leaning in heavily with Whole Foods and same day delivery going forward.
这个故事真有意思,Rachel。
Love this story, Rachel.
你最快的看法是什么?
What's your quick take?
我的看法是,嗯……
I mean, to me, like, hey.
这可不是失败。
This isn't failure.
我的意思是,亚马逊现在跟沃尔玛的竞争越来越激烈了,尤其是把门店当成了配送中心。
I mean, you know, Amazon, know, is competing more and more with Walmart, you know, based on, you know, stores as a fulfillment center.
我觉得他们已经学到了不少东西。
I think they just learned a lot.
那接下来他们会怎么做呢?
And what are they gonna do?
他们会进一步加码电商,这点你刚才也说了,确实合理。
Well, they're gonna, you know, double down on ecommerce, which you said, which makes sense.
至于这个新概念会怎样,谁也说不准。
And then they're who knows what happens with this new concept?
你说呢?
I mean, what do you think?
我觉得亚马逊的优势在于它的技术平台,还有它打造的物流网络,用来跟美国邮政、UPS和联邦快递这些公司竞争。
Well, I think where Amazon plays and where Amazon's point of difference is is its technology platform and then the fulfillment network that he has built out to compete with, like, the postal service in The US and UPS and FedEx.
他们已经达到了那个水平。
They're they're they're they're they're at that level.
所以他们才能跟沃尔玛竞争。
So that's where they can compete against Walmart.
他们能跟沃尔玛竞争。
They can compete against Walmart.
没错。
Yes.
他们没有实体门店,但拥有配送网络,可以模拟甚至创造同样的优势。
They don't have the physical brick and mortar, but they have the the distribution network which can mimic that and, and create that that opportunity for it.
你能想象吗?想要的东西一小时内就能送到家门口。
Can you imagine getting anything you want within an hour to your doorstep?
这比你开车、找停车位、取货、再开车回家还要快。
That's probably less time than it will take to drive and park, pick something up, and drive home.
目前还不是所有商品都能做到,但我相信,他们的长期愿景就是实现这一点,像在其他领域一样,在生鲜杂货上也占据优势。
So they're not there yet on every product, but that, I believe, is their their vision in the long term is to be able to get there and be able to compete in grocery in the way that they can compete.
哇哦。
Wow.
你肯定是为某家电商公司做报道吧。
Well, you must cover ecommerce for someone.
没错。
I must.
是的。
I do.
确实如此。
I do.
巴里,我就是做这个的。
Barry, I do.
我负责报道电商,这话题挺有意思的。
I cover ecommerce, so it's a fun fun topic.
亚马逊,你知道的。
Amazon You know.
你知道的。
You you know.
好吧。
Alright.
我觉得我最后一个故事还挺有意思的。
My last story, I think, is kind of a fun story.
我的意思是,这个话题真的让我特别着迷。
I mean, I just find the the topic fascinating.
这个想法源于我研究达沃斯世界经济论坛上发生的事。
This came out of just me studying what was happening at the World Economic Forum with Davos.
就是,那边到底在发生什么?
Like, kind of, you know, what's happening over there?
还有,人工智能的下一步会怎样?
And what's happening with kind of what's next for AI?
我写了一篇博客,讲的是为什么品牌和零售商现在就得为通用人工智能到来后的世界做好准备。
And I I kinda wrote a blog on this, which is, about why brands and retailers must plan now for the day after AGI.
你知道,AGI,也就是通用人工智能。
You know, AGI, artificial general intelligence.
这指的是那些能执行大量认知任务的AI系统,水平达到甚至超越人类,比如跨领域学习、推理、规划和自主行动,跟我们现在常见的那种专用AI工具完全不同。
You know, that kind of refers to systems, AI systems that are capable of performing so many, you know, cognitive tasks at or beyond human levels, including learning across domains, reasoning, planning, and acting autonomously, which are very different than those narrow AI tools we often have today.
所以,这类系统被预期会以智能代理的方式运作。
So, you know, these systems are expected to operate as agents.
它们能设定目标、协调工作流程、做出并执行决策。
They'll set goals, coordinate workflows, execute decisions.
我们现在其实已经看到一些这样的代理在发挥作用了。
We're already seeing this now with some agents.
所以在达沃斯,他们直接说:看吧。
And so at Davos, they just said, look.
大家的共识其实很明确。
The consensus, you know, was kinda clear.
这种技术很可能在接下来两到五年内就会到来。
This is coming anywhere within the next, you know, arguably two to five years.
而且它可能不会像某一天突然宣布:嘿。
And it may not be a day like, hey.
就是1月9号,AGI来了。
It's it's January 9.
AGI已经出现了。
AGI is here.
它的到来可能是悄无声息的。
It may be quiet, as it's approaching.
在某些情况下,它其实已经悄然存在了。
And in some cases, it's it's kinda maybe already here.
所以你真得让组织里的一些人开始思考这个问题。
And so you do wanna have some of your organization thinking about this.
比如,谁在负责我们组织未来的战略布局?
Like, who are the people in the organization that are leading my future back initiatives?
我们得想想,五年后、三年后,肯定得提前布局。
Where we're thinking, you know, five years out or three years out, certainly.
正因为如此,我大致梳理出了四个我们正在探索的准备方向。
And, you know, because of that, I kinda outlined, four preparation areas that, we're kinda learning about.
其中一个就是,AI正在推动AGI从洞察转向执行。
And one of those is just, you know, AI is definitely shifting AGI, especially from insight to execution.
这显然是一个核心趋势,正在逐渐显现。
That's a central theme, you know, coming in.
这些AGI系统会先做出决策,然后自动执行。
And so these these AGI, you know, they'll inform decisions and then execute them.
所以你现在作为领导者,就应该立刻开始试点智能代理辅助的工作流程,无论是在媒体、电商、预测还是其他领域,把它当成一种全新的运营模式。
And so what you can do now is just a leader is just wanna be piloting agent augmented workflows now, like this second, across media, across ecommerce, across forecasting, and kind of think of it as a new operating model.
这能帮你逐步培养应对AGI的能力。
And that's gonna help you build muscles, for AGI.
顺便说一句,确实有一些公司,蕾切尔,已经在现在就开始招聘AGI相关人才了。
And and by the way, you know, there's some companies, Rachel, like, seriously, there's some companies hiring for AGI right now.
事实上,我之前在一次大型演讲中也展示过这个情况。
In fact, showed this to some people at a big presentation.
他们当时就惊了。
They were kinda like, woah.
对啊。
Yeah.
谷歌已经在悄悄招人,积极准备,走在最前面了。
Google kinda hiring, kinda preparing for this, kinda leading this.
我不知道你怎么想,但这件事真的挺重要的。
So I don't know what you think, but it's kind of important.
非常重要。
It's very important.
这是一场彻底的变革,会影响快消品、零售,乃至所有行业的商业模式。
It's a complete transformation and shift to all business models across CPG, across retail, across really all businesses entirely.
没错。
So, yes.
我觉得,公司应该把更多时间投入到未来的战略布局上,远超过现在实际投入的,因为这场变革太深刻了,会彻底改变一切。
I mean, I think it should be a a much larger portion of a company's time spent on that future back planning than maybe that that is even in place today, in my opinion, because it's so transformative and will really change everything.
颠覆商业模式,改变员工在公司里的角色等等。
Break business models, change, change people's roles in companies, etcetera.
所以这真是个极其重要的议题。
So it's just a hugely important topic.
他们不会用自动化取代我们,蕾切尔。
They're not gonna automate us, Rachel.
不会。
Not
还没到那一步。
yet.
对。
No.
还没到那一步。
Not yet.
还没到那一步。
Not yet.
好吧。
Alright.
接下来是来自《纽约时报》的最后一条新闻和动态,巴里。
Last piece of news and notes out of the New York Times, Barry.
这条新闻吸引了我,因为我坐过一次Waymo的车。
This caught my eye because I I I was in one of these Waymo cars.
我不知道你有没有坐过Waymo的车。
I don't know if you've ever gone into a Waymo car.
那是辆自动驾驶汽车。
It's a self driving car.
它属于Alphabet,也就是谷歌的母公司。
It's owned by Alphabet, Google's parent company.
这篇报道提到,Waymo筹集了160亿美元,用于全球扩张,并计划今年在20多个城市开始由安全驾驶员陪同的测试。
And this particular article talked about how it raised $16,000,000,000 to expand globally and that it plans to begin testing with a safety driver in more than 20 cities this year.
报道还说,Waymo去年的乘车次数增长了三倍多,达到了1500万次。
And the article also talked about Waymo, that it more than tripled the number of rides it delivered last year to 15,000,000.
这事最早是2020年在凤凰城启动的,我去年去那里参加一个会议时,就和一位同事坐过几次Waymo。
It started back in in 2020 in Phoenix, which is where I actually took a couple of Waymo drives when I was out there for a conference last year, with one of my colleagues.
真是让人惊叹。
And, wow.
是不是特别神奇?
Was it amazing?
后来他们又扩展到了旧金山、亚特兰大、洛杉矶、迈阿密、得克萨斯的奥斯汀,而且在美国其他地方还会继续扩大服务。
They but they've since expanded to San Francisco, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Miami, Austin, Texas, and it will continue to expand services here in The US.
比如,他们正在研究长途高速路段的自动驾驶,还计划在全球推广,像伦敦和东京,文章里就提到了这两个城市。
For example, it's looking at longer highway drives, and then it's looking at launching globally, as as I said, in London and Tokyo are are two of the cities that were cited in in the article.
这真的太酷了。
So it's very cool.
你就像叫出租车一样叫Waymo,但车上根本没人开车。
You hail, you know, hail Waymo like a cab, but there's no driver.
全靠技术搞定。
It's all technology.
你只要在应用里输入目的地,它就会把你送到地方,然后你再叫它回来接你。
And you put in your location in the app, and it drops you off at your location, and you call it back to pick you up.
这太不可思议了。
It's wild.
亲身体验一次真的特别棒。
That it's it was such a cool experience to try.
拉切尔,我们在亚特兰大到处都能看到它们。
Rachel, we're seeing them all over Atlanta.
前几天我打车去机场的时候,坐了一辆优步,
It's I was in I was in a Uber the other day, you know, heading to the airport, and I was with the Uber.
我就问司机:你觉得怎么样?
I said, what do you think?
他说:现在这种车越来越多了。
And he's like, there's just more and more of them.
不过在亚特兰大,至少有些车还是有司机的。
Now some of them, at least in Atlanta, they still have the human driver.
有些车就没有司机。
Some, they don't.
我的意思是,对你来说,你感觉怎么样?
I mean, for you, like, how are you feeling?
你当时紧张吗?
Were you nervous?
天哪。
Like, oh my gosh.
所以,是的,确实有点。
That's why well, yes.
我有点紧张,特别是当你需要左转或者遇到红灯的时候,它真能停下来吗?
I a little bit, especially, like I'm like, especially when you make a left or there's a stoplight, is it really gonna stop?
但它确实停了,整个体验特别棒。
Like but it did, and it was very cool.
我把我的体验拍成了视频。
I took videos of my experience.
我根本没想好该选谁当司机。
I had no driver in mind.
这事儿太疯狂了。
It was just so wild.
交通和配送的未来,其实已经来了,挺有意思的。
The future of, of transport, right, and delivery is is kinda here, so it's interesting.
确实如此。
It is.
我之前听一位未来学家说,希望我有生之年能见到我的孙子孙女。
I was listening to a futurist, and he was saying, you know, probably my grandchildren hopefully, I'll meet them one day.
将来我们的孙子辈看到停车场,大概只会觉得:他们当时怎么想的?
Well, our grandchildren will probably look at parking lots one day and and just think, what were they thinking?
为什么要停车呢?
Why why did you park cars?
到底是为什么,要这么做?
Like, how why did you do that?
它能自动泊车。
Parks itself.
你为什么要学这个?
Like, why are you learning to do that?
是的。
Yeah.
好的,巴里。
Alright, Barry.
今天我很高兴邀请到布莱恩·蔡加入我们。
Well, I'm very excited to have, Brian Choi join us today.
布莱恩是食品研究所的管理合伙人兼首席执行官,该机构是食品行业新闻、数据和市场趋势的权威来源。
Brian is the managing partner and CEO of The Food Institute, which is the leading source for food industry news, data, and market trends.
布莱恩在食品行业拥有丰富的金融管理经验,曾任职于投资银行、咨询公司和私募股权领域。
Brian is an experienced financial executive in the food industry, having previously worked in investment banking, consulting, and private equity.
布莱恩为多家食品饮料企业担任战略顾问,也被公认为食品行业的权威专家和思想领袖,曾亮相《华尔街日报》、彭博社、CNBC和BBC等国际媒体。
Brian serves as a strategic adviser to multiple food and beverage organizations, and he's also recognized as a leading food industry expert and thought leader and has appeared on international media networks such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNBC, and the BBC.
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Brian,很高兴再次见到你,欢迎来到我们的播客。
Brian, so excited to see you again, and, welcome to our podcast.
是的。
Yeah.
很好。
Great.
谢谢你们邀请我。
And thanks for having me.
我对今天的讨论特别期待。
Super excited about today's discussion.
Brian,我想问你一个问题。
Well, Brian, I I, just wanna ask you.
你现在在哪儿连线呢?
Where are you calling from?
拉切尔那边冷得要命。
Rachel's up there where it's freezing.
积雪有好几英尺厚。
There's, like, feet feet of snow.
在亚特兰大,我们可没这情况。
Here in Atlanta, we don't have that.
我在新泽西北部,确实下了不少雪。
Well, I I'm in Northern New Jersey, so we did get hit with, you know, quite a bit of snow.
大概有十六英寸吧。
Think about 16 inches.
是的。
Yeah.
差不多连续两天都被大雪困在家里了。
So we were snowed in for pretty much a couple of days.
我们两个孩子可高兴了。
Our our our two kids, they loved it.
他们还得去上学。
They had to go to school.
所以是放了雪假,对吧?
Got a snow day, right, out of it.
是的。
Yeah.
不过好在雪都清理干净了,终于能把车开出去,重新上路了。
But glad glad it's been, you know, been cleared out and we can finally take our car outside and and drive again.
所以。
So
对。
Yeah.
真厉害。
Wow.
天哪。
Man.
是的。
Yeah.
我们昨天过了土拨鼠日,你知道的,就是那个传统,嗯。
Well, we had the groundhog, you know, yesterday, Groundhog Day or Mhmm.
结果嘛,也不意外,还得再熬六个星期的冬天。
Ended, you know, we, of course, no surprise, have six more weeks of winter.
所以我对这个结果一点都不惊讶。
So I wasn't too surprised about that.
这冰就是不肯化。
The ice is just not going away.
是的。
Yeah.
希望天快点暖和起来。
Hopefully, it'll warm up soon.
对。
Yeah.
亚特兰大那边也下了雪。
We did have snow in Atlanta.
想特别提一下这场雪。
Just wanna give a shout out to snow.
我们这儿在
Here in the
周末的时候。
weekend.
雪量没到十六英尺,大概十六英寸吧。
It was not 16, feet, maybe 16 inches.
所以。
So
太棒了。
Awesome.
好的。
Alright.
布莱恩,我先开个头,聊聊2026年吧。
Well, Brian, I I just wanted to kick us off, and just, talk about 2026.
当你展望今年的前景时,消费品和零售行业的领导者们最忽视的那个宏观信号是什么?
And, when you look at your outlook going forward this year, what is the single macro signal, that CPG and retail leaders, are still underestimating?
为什么现在这个信号比以后更重要?
And, why does it matter now rather than later?
确实如此。
Yeah.
不是的。
No.
这个问题问得太好了。
That's that's such a great question.
我是个数据控。
I I'm a data guy.
你知道的。
You know?
以前做投资银行的时候,我总是盯着数据,因为数据从来不会骗人,它总能指向真相。
I you know, when I did investment banking privately, I'm always looking at numbers, and, the data always points to where the truth is.
对吧?
Right?
所以呢,作为一家媒体公司,我能看到其他很多媒体平台在说什么。
And so it's one thing, you know, I I you know, being a media company, I see what a lot of the other media platforms, you know, what they're saying.
大家普遍很乐观,我觉得这挺好。
There's a lot of optimism, which is I think it's great.
乐观总是件好事。
It's always great to be be optimistic.
但我最关注的那个数据点,是消费者的真实状态。
But the one data point, I'm hyper focused on where the consumer is.
我们之前也跟你们聊过,就是看消费者对自己财务状况的感受,以及他们对未来六到十二个月美国经济前景的看法。
And this is something that, we've we've spoken to you guys about just looking at, you know, how the consumer is feeling about their own financial situation and how they're feeling about, you know, the prospects of The US economy over the next six to twelve months.
如果从长期来看,这个数字其实挺低的。
And, you know, it's it's pretty low, you know, if you look at a long term perspective.
我记得以前在华尔街和做私募的时候,密歇根大学消费者信心指数每个月都稳稳地在100左右,那才是常态。
Like, I remember, you know, back when I was working, you know, in my Wall Street days and private equity days, it was normal to see the University of Michigan consumer confidence around a 100 consistently on a month to month now you know, month to month basis.
现在大概在50左右。
Today, that's around 50.
对吧?
Right?
如果从几十年的长期趋势来看,消费者信心一旦持续落在50附近,通常就意味着经济低迷。
And if you cut look at the long term perspective of consumer confidence over multi decades, whenever the the consumer confidence was consistently around the 50 range, it usually signaled a depressed growth.
你明白吗?
You know?
我觉得这就是关键点。
And, you know, I think that is the one thing.
你知道,美国经济有三分之二靠消费者驱动。
It's you know, The US economy is two thirds of the other consumer.
所以,我觉得很多食品饮料公司都忽略了消费者手头有多紧。
And so, I think the one thing that a lot of food and beverage companies are overlooking is how financially strapped the consumer is.
即使在今天,我刚看了些新闻头条。
Even in today's you know, I was reading the headlines.
百事公司打算把乐事和墨西哥卷饼这些薯片的价格下调15%,因为销量上不去,消费者一直在抱怨价格太高。
Pepsi, you know, planning on cutting, their price on Lay's and Burritos, potato chips by 15% because volume growth, there's not you know, and consumers have been complaining about about prices.
这可是个不小的举动,要知道,百事可是全球最大的快消品公司之一,这说明他们对消费者现状真的挺担忧的。
Like, that's that's a that's a pretty big step that, you know, one of the largest CPG companies what their what, you know, what the the concerns that they have around the state of the consumer.
对吧?
Right?
所以我觉得最关键的就是,得先搞清楚消费者现在到底是什么情况,然后食品饮料公司才能据此制定策略。
So, so that's the one thing I think I'm, it'd be it'd be really good to just focus on where the consumer is, and then for food and beverage companies to kind of strategize around where the consumer is.
对吧?
Right?
不管是走性价比路线,还是调整定价,或者真正提升消费者感受到的价值,都得围绕消费者的需求来。
Whether it's, you know, going more the value route, may maybe it's more about, you know, maybe it's a cost adjust adjustment, or really delivering that perceived value.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这就是最关键的一点,我们后面在播客里还会继续聊这个话题。
I think that's the one thing, which, you know, I know we'll be we'll be, talking about later in the in the podcast.
但消费者确实特别看重性价比。
But, yeah, consumers are value obsessed.
如果非得用一个词或者两个词来形容2026年的消费者,那就是‘看重性价比’。
If there's one word, or two words that I was I would say, in 2026, the consumer is value obsessed.
这点毫无疑问,布莱恩。
No question about it, Brian.
那我们不妨就这个点再深入聊聊。
So let's build on that for a moment.
你知道,我们在凯度经常讨论美国市场的两极分化,K型经济,以及品牌该如何调整策略。
You know, we, at Kantar, we're talking a lot about the bifurcation of America, the k shaped economy, and how brands need to think and act differently.
我们甚至已经整理出专门的章节和操作指南,尤其是在应对Z世代时,这一点尤其关键。
We have, like, chapters and playbooks on that, and I think it's especially important with Gen Z.
Z世代的消费能力,跟我们X世代相比,大概只有三分之一左右。
I mean, Gen Z's purchasing power versus, like me, Gen X, is about one third less.
他们就是没那么多钱,你知道的。
They just have you know?
所以,很多快消品类的潜在市场规模实际上变小了,但我们还是希望它们能提升销量。
So, subsequently, the addressable market of a lot of CPG categories is just less, but we still want them to grow units.
那你们那边给食品饮料品牌提了哪些建议?这个话题现在可太热了。
So kinda what's what are you kinda seeing and sharing over there to food and beverage brands on this, like, such a hot topic?
是的。
Yeah.
说到Z世代,他们行为背后的影响因素特别有意思,我们都清楚,我有两个孩子。
So, you know, as it relates to Gen Z, they, what's really interesting when you look at the behavior patterns of what is influencing behavior and we all know that, you know, I have two kids.
他们花大量时间在设备上——说出来有点不好意思。
They are spending a lot of time kind of ashamed to admit this.
他们一直在刷手机。
They're on on devices.
对吧?
Right?
所以,他们深受媒体和社交媒体的影响。
So they're influenced by media, by social media.
你知道吗,我们孩子还是对K-pop和《恶魔猎人》着迷得不得了。
You know, our kids are, they they're still obsessed with k pop demon hunter k pop demon hunters.
对吧?
Right?
所以,他们主要受媒体影响,这一点很明显。
So so a lot you know, they're influenced by by by by media.
尤其是针对Z世代,真正能打动他们的,是出现在他们日常最常使用的那些媒介里。
And so particularly around Gen Z, what really moves moves the needle is, connecting with that demographic in the mediums in which they spend a lot of their time.
对吧?
Right?
跟我们父母那一代不一样,他们不是特别在意价格、价格、价格。
They're not really necessarily, like, you know, with my with my parents, they're it's all you know, they're very focused on price, price, price, price.
对吧?
Right?
他们经常去好市多。
You know, they're going to Costco.
他们去山姆会员店,价格才是决定购买的关键。
They're going to Sam's Club, and price is the the the main, determining factor.
但对Z世代来说,他们深受自己关注的网红影响。
But with the Gen Z demographic, they are very much influenced by the influencers by which they by which they follow.
对吧?
Right?
所以对他们来说,购物决策的考量不止是价格。
And so for them, the calculus on on purchasing behavior is not just about price.
没错。
Yes.
价格当然重要,但他们更希望和产品产生共鸣,不管是食品、饮料,还是餐饮门店。
Price is important, but they they need to feel connected with the product, whether it's a food product, whether it's a beverage product, whether it's a food service, you know, establishment.
他们需要的是一种超越价格和性价比的深层连接。
They need to be feel connected in a deeper way than purely of that, like, a price or value, criteria.
所以说,这事儿挺有意思的。
So, you know, it it's it's very it's very interesting.
再往下看,Gen Alpha这一代受这种影响更明显。
If you go even further down, the Gen Alpha, they're even more they're even more influenced, you know, by that.
每个年龄段的消费者都不一样。
So, every demographic is different.
针对每个群体,策略都得完全不同,这确实很有挑战性。
The strategy has to be very different for each of the demo, demographic cohorts, and it's it's it's challenging.
对吧?
Right?
你得面对三四个甚至五个完全不同的消费群体。
It's it's like you have, you know, three, four, five different consumer groups.
得根据每个群体的具体需求,制定专门的营销策略。
You need to have a have a very specific strategy to to to target, each of those demographics depending on their consumer needs states.
不过,食品饮料行业一向能应对这种挑战,我相信到2026年,企业们都能快速适应。
So, but, yeah, you know, it's with food and beverage always rises to to the challenge, and, you know, I'm sure the companies will be able to adapt, quite quickly in 2026.
也许就一点建议,布莱恩。
Maybe just one build, Brian.
我们看到的一个亮点是,去年在奥兰多举行的CAGNY展会上,所有快消品公司都提到了高端化,真的挺明显的。
One bright spot that we see, especially from the CAGNY presentations last year where all the CPGs present down in Orlando, premiumization, man.
也就是说,高收入群体正在推动整个经济的60%。
I mean, like, that upper income consumer is driving, you know, 60% of the economy.
当时现场的氛围非常积极。
There was a lot of positivity there.
今年我们还会继续关注这个趋势,但说实话,这确实是个亮眼的方向。
We'll be back again this year covering that, but I I I that is a bright spot.
没错。
Yes.
我完全同意你的看法。
So I I I agree with you.
他们确实在持续消费,但我想提一点,这一点在媒体上几乎没人讨论过。
They are they're continuing to spend, but I would say and this is something that I haven't really seen a lot of media attention on.
对。
Mhmm.
他们也越来越受价值的影响。
They are being also more influenced by value.
对他们来说,价值的定义不一样。
Value for them is a different definition.
对吧?
Right?
你知道,对于美国中部和低收入群体来说,他们对价格非常敏感。
You know, for for Middle America, lower income consumers, they're extremely price conscious.
但就连高收入消费者,也越来越受到Bites的影响。
But even that upper echelon of the consumer, they are also more and more being influenced by by Bites.
比如你看沃尔玛,再看好市多,增长最快的消费群体之一就是高收入人群。
When you look at Walmart, for example, when you look at Costco, they're one of the fastest growing consumer demographics is that upper income consumer.
五年前、十年前,他们根本不会去沃尔玛购物。
You know, five, ten years ago, they they weren't shopping at Walmart.
他们也不怎么去好市多。
They weren't they weren't really shopping at Costco.
对吧?
Right?
但现在我们看到,就连这个群体也在寻找一种所谓的价值感。
But now we're seeing even that demographic, finding, I would say, perceived value.
对吧?
Right?
如果你能在好市多以八折买到高端葡萄酒,这种价格优势就会改变他们的消费行为。
If you can buy a higher end wine at a Costco at 20% discount, that that moves that that causes behavioral change.
所以,我觉得2024年主打的是对价格的敏感度。
So, you know, if I were to if I would I would say 2024 was about value consciousness.
而2025年,一直到2026年,我前面提到的那个词——价值执念,会更明显。
2025 and and going into 2026, I I you know, that that term I I used it earlier, value obsession.
目前,价值,尤其是感知到的价值,正在驱动所有消费群体。
We're seeing value and specifically perceived value being driving all consumer demographics, you know, right now.
至于最顶层的1%,他们当然不会受这些影响,想怎么买就怎么买。
Now the top 1%, obviously, they're not you know, they're doing whatever.
对吧?
Right?
他们大部分财富都挂在股市上,这一点我想再强调一下,尤其是高收入群体。
They have, so one other point I wanted to make about this upper, you know, the upper, the top end of the consumer range, a lot of their wealth is tied up in the stock market.
没错。
Mhmm.
现在股市已经接近历史最高点了。
We are near all time highs.
标普500指数今早刚突破七千点,我想是这样。
S and P 500 just crossed, I think, 7,000 this this morning.
对吧?
Right?
你看债券市场,收益率都在下滑。
When you look at the bond market, the its yields are down.
你懂的。
You know?
所以我的意思是,现在的资产价格已经完美定价了,我们正处在美国历史上最长的一轮牛市之一,甚至可能是有史以来最长的。
So my my point is asset prices are priced to perfection right now, and we are coming on one of the longest bull markets in US history, if not the the longest.
那我为什么要提这个呢?
So why do I bring that up?
如果市场出现任何一点波动,资产价格可能会下跌。
If there's any sort of volatility that that starts to creep up in in in in the markets, we might see asset prices go down.
对吧?
Right?
我不是在预测市场会崩盘,但如果股市真的下跌,这部分消费者的心态肯定会受到更大冲击。
And so if I and I'd say I'm I'm not I'm not predicting a a a crash in the markets, but if asset prices at the stock market, you know, goes down, you know, the psychology of of that end of the consumer will be even more impacted.
对吧?
Right?
所以这是我最关注的一点。
And and so that's the one thing I would I would keep definitely keep an eye on.
看看股市的价值,看看债市的表现,还有房地产价格,你也得留意。
Look at look at the value of the stock market, look at the value of the bond market, look at, you know, real you know, even real estate prices.
如果咱们看到市场开始有点下滑,那会对高端消费者的行为产生巨大影响。
Like, if we start to see that ship ship down a little bit, it's gonna cause a huge change in behavior amongst that kind of top end of the consumer.
所以,这确实会是挺有意思的一年。
So, yeah, it's a it's a it's it it it'll be an interesting year.
你知道的。
You know?
我觉得正确的做法,也是更稳妥的策略,就是做最坏的打算,但保持乐观。
It'll be, you know, I think this the right strategy or the prudent strategy, prepare for the worst, but be optimistic.
要乐观,但也要更灵活应对。
You know, be optimistic and but be much more agile.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得,即使在2026年这么早的阶段,市场已经开始出现一些变化了。
And, I think we're starting to see some shifts in the market right now even at this early stage in 2026.
布莱恩,我想聊聊2026年,因为你之前也提到过,这是挑战者品牌崛起的一年。
Brian, I wanna talk a little bit about, 2026 because you've also used the term, it's the year of the challenger brand.
是的
Yeah.
我们能不能聊聊挑战者品牌,它们现在在结构上比老牌品牌强在哪里?
And, can we talk a little bit about challenger brands and what they are doing structurally better than incumbent brands right now?
是的
Yeah.
这是个好问题。
That's that's question.
是的
Yeah.
我和我们的共同朋友桑尼·坎塔尔在冬季幻想展上见面时,正在做一场关于2026年宏观趋势的演讲。
We, I was with, our our mutual, friend, Sunny Kantar, at the Winter Fantasy Fair Show, and we were delivering a presentation on the macro trends in in 2026.
我们一开始就说,今年是挑战者品牌之年。
And, you know, we we led with that this year being the challenger brand.
挑战者品牌通常规模比那些大牌巨头小得多。
So challenger brands are companies that are generally a lot smaller than than the big incumbent brands.
它们非常灵活,能根据消费者的需求快速调整和转型。
They're very agile, in terms in terms of, you know, shifting and pivoting depending on where the consumer is.
它们在营销和数字媒体方面更懂行,清楚知道自己目标人群是谁。
They're usually much more savvy savvy with with, you know, marketing, digital media, understanding, like, who their their target demographic is.
第四,它们和消费者建立了更深层次的连接。
And fourth, they're connecting with their consumer in a deeper in a deep in a deeper way.
所以我们在这个研究所发现的是,消费者的偏好正在发生变化。
So what we're finding here at the institute is that consumers are tired of is is changing.
巴里,你和我以前在播客里也聊过这个话题。
Barry, you and I have spoken about this, you know you know, in on on previous podcast.
创新的节奏,取决于消费者的需求,他们追求新东西的速度,比父母那一代快多了。
So the innovation cycle, where the consumer is, they're looking for it's it's almost like they're looking for something new at a faster pace than than, you know, their their their parents or their in the older generations.
他们想要新的口味。
They want new flavors.
他们希望有更多样化的选择。
They let they want a lot more variety.
而现在市场上大公司提供的东西,根本满足不了消费者对变化、创新、新口味和刺激的无尽渴望。
And what the market is offering right now in terms of the big and company, it's it's not satisfying their insatiable desire for change, for innovation, for new flavors, for excitement.
对吧?
Right?
但新兴品牌恰恰提供了这些。
The challenger brands are offering that.
比如他们推出的 Goodles 这类产品。
You know, they're offering, products, and I I bring up, like, for example, Goodles.
对吧?
Right?
就是那种更健康的通心粉奶酪品牌。
And, you know, the the the the better for you mac and cheese brand.
对吧?
Right?
凯洛格的通心粉奶酪,到底垄断这个市场多少年了?
How many decades has Kraft Mac and Cheese really dominated that that segment of the market?
对吧?
Right?
而且那本来就是种安慰食品。
And and it was comfort food.
说实话,我自己有时候也会吃。
And and, you know, I I sometimes, you know, consume consume that as well.
但如果有个更好的品牌,用料更健康、品质更高、风味更有创新,那作为消费者,我和其他人就会想:嘿。
But if there's a better brand that is is is healthier, it's better quality, you know, ingredients, offers more flavor innovation, you know, that's causing me as a consumer and the consumer at large to be like, hey.
我宁愿多花点钱,买一个不仅更健康、还能带来新口味体验的产品。
Like, you know, I'll I'd rather be, paying a little bit more, but, you know, for a product that is not only better for me, but it also, you know, adds a little bit more flavor innovation.
对吧?
Right?
所以这只是其中一个例子。
So they're just one, you know, one example.
还有另一个,比如 Simple Mills。
You know, another, you is know, Simple Mills.
他们去年被Flowers Food收购了,是一款更健康的饼干。
They got bought up by Flowers Food, you know, last year, a better for you cracker.
对吧?
Right?
你明白吧?
You know?
他们真正抓住了目标人群,尤其是家庭中的女性,那些希望给孩子提供更健康零食的妈妈们。
And, you know, really, they they they connected with their target demographic, you know, families, especially female, you know, female, like, that females that that are in families and they wanna, you know, wanna feed their kids kids better better a better for you snack.
这些正是正在挑战行业巨头的新兴品牌。
Like, these are these are the challenger brands that that are out out competing the big incumbents.
对吧?
Right?
我的观点是,消费者已经准备好接受改变了。
And so, the consumer is ready for change is my point.
我觉得新兴品牌正在抓住这个机会,提供了更高的感知价值。
And and challenger brands are, I think, rising to the occasion, and they're they're delivering a better perceived value.
我说的是‘感知到的价值’。
And I I said perceived.
对吧?
Right?
因为消费者愿意多花点钱,只要产品能带来不一样的体验。
You so because consumers are willing to pay a little bit more if it if it offers a differentiated experience.
现在这些新兴品牌正是这么做的,真的很让人振奋。
That's what challenger brands are are are are are doing right now, and it's exciting.
这正是我今天在食品饮料行业看到的最令人兴奋的一点。
And that's one of the the the the exciting things I I I see in the food and beverage industry today.
我同意。
I agree.
去年Banquet做了一项研究,显示新兴品牌虽然只占了1%的销售额,却贡献了至少40%的增长。
I mean, mean, last year, Banquet had a really good study about, you know, 1% of revenues coming from challenger brands in this country, but at least 40% of the growth.
真的没想到。
Like, woah.
怎么回事?
What's happening?
我觉得这简直让人震惊。
And I find it just shocking.
现代苏打水根本不是那两大巨头发明的。
I mean, that modern soda was not invented was not invented by the two juggernauts.
我到现在还有点难以置信,布莱恩。
I mean, I just I'm still kinda wrapping my head around that, Brian.
我不太确定。
I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
没错。
Absolutely.
而且很多因素其实都是慢慢积累起来的。
And and and a lot of it was, like it it was it's a culmination of things.
对吧?
Right?
这不是单靠某一个原因,我觉得是因为那些大公司多年来一直赚得盆满钵满,所以他们就觉得,嗯……
It's not just one thing that's you know, I think because they you know, the big incumbents have just been so profitable for so many years and so many decades, they're like, hey.
我们干嘛要改配方呢?
Why do we need why do why do we need to change the formula?
但消费者,尤其是从新冠疫情开始,我觉得那是个转折点,消费者突然意识到……
But the consumer, as we've seen, really since COVID, I would say the COVID was a you know, a defining moment, you know, for for consumers where it was like, yeah.
他们开始想,天啊。
They're like, wow.
我到底在干嘛?
What what what am I what am I doing?
我这一生到底在忙些什么?
It's it's it's what am I doing with my life?
我该怎么养活我的家人?
How am I feeding my family?
我想感觉更好一些。
I wanna be I wanna be, you know, feeling better.
我想吃得更健康。
I wanna be eating healthier.
我想少喝点酒。
I wanna be drinking less alcohol.
这确实是个关键转折点,消费者开始认真思考:
So that really was, like, the I I think a a key moment that consumers were really thinking about, hey.
他们想改变。
They wanna change.
他们想变得更好。
They wanna change for the better.
对吧?
Right?
再加上新一届政府推动的MAHA运动,你也知道,
Then you have even, you know, with the new administration, you know, the the the focus on the whole MAHA movement.
对吧?
Right?
而且我知道我们待会儿还会聊到新的膳食金字塔,但这也正在深刻改变产品的生产方式,还有餐饮服务场所——比如开始用牛油替代植物油,
And and and it's you know, that's also I know we're gonna be talking about that later with the new food pyramid, but that's also causing significant change in, in the way products are manufactured, in in the way food service establishments, like, you know, shifting out seed oils in, you know, with with beef tallow.
我们看到这种趋势越来越多,消费者也确实想要这样的产品。
Like, we're seeing more and more of that, and consumers want that.
挺有意思的。
It it's interesting.
我之前看到一个广告,那家餐饮店在宣传说:
Like, I was I was looking at one commercial, and the food service establishment were they were promoting, hey.
我们特地推出牛油炸薯条。
We have specifically beef tallow fries.
对吧?
Right?
所以他们用这个,是因为消费者在往这个方向走。
And so they're using it because it's moving the consumer.
消费者对这个挺好奇的。
Consumers are curious there.
比如说,
Like, hey.
也许不只是味道更好,还跟新的膳食指南更吻合。
Maybe, you know, not only does it taste better for them, but maybe, you know, they're it's kind of aligning with the new food pyramid.
对吧?
Right?
这算是一种更健康的产品。
And it's a it's a quote better for you, you know, type of type of product.
这是多种因素共同作用的结果,真正推动了这场变革,让它成了焦点。
So it's a combination a culmination of factors, right, that's, you know, really, really kind of driving driving this change and bringing it to the forefront.
这点毫无疑问。
No question.
我再补充一点,然后Rachel,该你提问了。
Just one last build on that, and then, Rachel, let's get you in here for a question.
我觉得这件事宣传得还不够。
I just don't think it's being publicized enough.
我是说,新的膳食指南,政府政策都已经跟上了。
I mean, the new food pyramid, I mean, government policy is following that.
但好像没多少人在讨论这个。
I don't think enough people are talking about that.
比如SNAP,这在快消品行业挺重要的。
For example, snap snap, which kinda matters in the FMCG world.
没错。
Absolutely.
饮料领域也一样重要。
It matters for beverages.
我的意思是,现在至少有二十个州,比如佛罗里达,都已经这么做了。
I mean, snap now in at least 20 states, big ones like Florida Mhmm.
得克萨斯州这些地方,直接告诉你含糖饮料和其他饮品对健康有害。
Texas, they are they're basically telling you soda and other Yeah.
产品对健康有危害。
Products are hazardous for your health.
没错。
Yes.
你根本买不到这些产品。
And you cannot buy them.
这在我们国家历史上可是头一回。
I mean, that's never happened in the history of this country before.
想想这事儿,真有点不可思议。
And I just like, that's a bit wild to think about.
所以我总觉得,那食物金字塔,有些人就随便应付一句,哦,是吧。
So I just think the food pyramid, some people are just kinda like, oh, yeah.
等一下。
Hold on a minute.
这其实影响着资金的流向,你知道的。
Like, it's influencing, like, you know, financial flow.
总之,Rachel,我就想提一下这件事。
So, anyway, Rachel, I just wanted to mention that.
对。
Yeah.
我倒是很想接着聊一聊这个新版的膳食金字塔。
I mean, I'd love to build on that and talk a little bit more about the new food food pyramid.
也许我们可以问问Brian,你觉得大型快消品公司应对这个变化最大的难点会在哪儿?
And maybe we can talk a bit to Brian of where do you think the real friction point will be for large CPGs trying to respond to this.
是的。
Yeah.
这问题确实挺复杂的。
It's it's it's such a it's a complex question.
每家公司都有自己的不同策略。
Every company has a different different strategy.
我觉得那些更支持特朗普和RFK的公司,还有他们的管理层,其实一直走在变革的前列。
I would say that the companies and the leadership of these companies that are more aligned with, you know, with Trump and and and RFK, they've been they're you know, they've been more, like, leading the change.
还有一些食品饮料公司立场没那么明确,它们现在就在观望,想着……
I think there are other food and beverage companies that, are less aligned, and, they're, you know, they're thinking, okay.
可能它们在关注中期选举的情况。
Maybe, you know, they're they're looking at sort of, like, the midterm elections.
对吧?
Right?
比如,万一政权转向民主党那边,新政府会多大力度推动实施,或者鼓励大家向这个新食物金字塔靠拢,这些都会影响它们的决策。
Like, with the with, you know, with the potential shift, you know, to the democratic side and, you know, what that will mean in terms of, like, how aggressive, you know, a new administration, if that were to come come to pass, would be on on implementation or sort of, like, encouraging kind of more more shifts in in towards that kind of the the the new new food food pyramid.
所以我觉得,董事会里头其实正在悄悄算这笔账。
So I think there is a there is a math there's some math happening, like, you know, within board board board rooms, you know, on that.
我想强调的一点是,这个新食物金字塔已经被左右两派都高度政治化了。
The of you know, I think the the the one point that I I that I wanted to make is that this whole new food permit has been highly politicized, both from the right and the left.
你看看旧版膳食指南和新版膳食指南的核心内容,大部分其实是一致的。
When you look at the core components of the old food permit versus the new food the new food permit, the majority is pretty consistent.
对吧?
Right?
所以我觉得,消费者和食品饮料公司都该意识到,新版和旧版膳食指南的相似之处远多于差异。
So, you know, I think it's important for, you know, for consumers and for, you know, food and beverage companies to recognize that there's a lot more similarity than differences you know, within within the food per you know, food pyramid.
对吧?
Right?
还是建议每天摄入大约2000卡路里。
It's still a 2,000 calorie around, 2,000 calorie diet.
还是强调吃真正的食物。
It's still, you know, emphasizing, you know, real food.
对吧?
Right?
真正的蛋白质。
Real protein.
它更强调减少超加工食品,限制饮酒,多吃水果蔬菜,每天吃两到四份,或者三到五份。
It's emphasizing, you know, less ultra processed foods, you know, limiting alcohol, eating eating, you know, you know, fruits and vegetables, like, two to four servings or three to five servings.
所以,其实相似的地方远多于不同之处。
So there's a lot more similarity.
至于争议点,比如左派那边,他们不认为红肉饮食和高脂饮食能算得上真正的健康饮食。
Now where there is some contention or disagreements, you know, for those that are on on the left, they don't they don't believe that a red meat diet, you know, and a full fat diet is something that, like, you know, is consistent with the with with that with the, quote, healthy healthy diet.
美国心脏协会和其他一些独立机构也持这种观点。
And this is, you know, from the American Heart Association and other independent organizations as well.
他们更倾向于植物性蛋白,还有用种子油替代其他油脂。
They they lean more towards kind of plant, you know, plant protein, the use of seed oils rather than.
这背后其实是理念的差异,也涉及对数据和科学证据的不同解读。
Again, it's it's it's it's a difference in philosophy and also, you know, interpreting the actual data and the scientific evidence.
对吧?
Right?
所以这是其中一点。
So that is one.
第二个是,巴里,你刚才提到过这个。
A second one is, you know, Barry, you you you mentioned this.
在新的食品标准下,他们对超加工食品的关注简直到了极致。
The alt the the it they're hyper focused at ultra processed food under the new food food permit.
对吧?
Right?
他们声称超加工食品对健康有害,并且把这种危害和慢性病直接联系起来。
So, you know, they're they're they're making the claim that ultra processed ultra processed foods, it's it's detrimental to your health, and they're making the link to chronic disease.
他们把超加工食品和慢性病的关系说得非常明确。
Like, the they're they're making a strong connection to chronic diseases.
对吧?
Right?
那我会把所有加工食品都归为坏的吗?
So, would I classify all all, you know, processed foods as bad?
不会。
No.
对吧?
Right?
但很多人觉得,根据新规定,所有加工食品都被一概归为‘不健康’一类。
But there is perception that under the new under the new guidelines, they're putting all processed foods in sort of, like, a, quote, bad category.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这种说法不公平。
And so which I I I don't think is I I don't think is fair.
对吧?
Right?
这也是一个有争议的点。
So that's also a point, you know, point of contention.
是的。
But yeah.
不对。
No.
我觉得这更多是政治问题。
I I I think, I think it's more about politics.
媒体上很多说法其实跟政治有关,而不是事实本身。
A lot a lot of the rhetoric around media is more about politics and what's actually real.
再强调一下,呃。
And and, you know, again, just emphasizing, hey.
其实相似的地方比不同之处多得多。
There's more a lot more similarities, you know, than than differences.
我还忘了提一点,就是新的膳食金字塔对全谷物的重视程度降低了。
One other point I I forgot to mention is that under the new food pyramid, if there is less, emphasis on whole grains.
对吧?
Right?
如果你还记得旧的膳食金字塔,底座是全谷物,大概建议每天吃五到七份。
So if you remember the the, the old food pyramid, you had the base was, like, whole grains, you know, whether it was five to seven surfing, that's about the the number.
现在他们说,呃。
They're now saying, hey.
减少摄入,多吃点蛋白质,或者真正的食物。
Reduce that and eat more protein, or real protein or real food.
对吧?
Right?
这也算是一个转变。
That's that's also, like, a a shift as well.
所以你看,新膳食金字塔把整个结构给翻过来了,挺有意思的。
So, you know, it's interesting how they inverted the under the new food pyramid, inverted the the pyramid.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这其实是一种表态。
I think it was a statement.
但我还是要强调一下。
But, again, I I I I emphasize, hey.
其实旧版和新版金字塔之间的共同点,远比差异多得多。
This is there's a lot more similarities than than differences between the old and the new pyramid.
所以
So
但确实很有趣。
But totally interesting.
这个观点特别有意思。
That's a really interesting point.
其实,新旧金字塔之间的相似之处远多于差异,我觉得这是个非常独特的见解。
Just there are there are more similarities than differences, which I think is a really, really unique point.
另外,新的食物金字塔也契合了当下消费者越来越关注健康与养生的趋势,正如你之前说的,布莱恩,这确实是重点。
Then the other thing too is the new food pyramid is also in line with kind of the wave of shoppers and consumers we see that are focused on their health and their wellness, which is a a big focal point, as you said too, Brian.
比如那些新兴品牌,它们之所以能成功,很大程度上是因为透明的配料表和新颖的成分,而且很多产品都更注重健康和养生。
Like, challenger brands, so much of what they're what they're winning on is transparency of ingredients and new unique ingredients, and many of them are, have a healthier sort of wellness profile.
所以,我觉得这些趋势正在慢慢汇聚在一起。
And so, there's a lot converging there, I think.
是的。
Yeah.
挺有意思的是,我还没看到像百事公司这样的企业的相关数据。
It it'll be interesting to see, and I have yet to see data, you know, for for companies like like Pepsi.
他们推出了全新的Naked薯片。
You know, they came out with their with their new naked chips.
对吧?
Right?
比如去掉食用色素,包装也少点花里胡哨的,这会挺值得关注的,因为——
So picking up you know, taking out the the food dyes and and keep keeping the packaging more, you know, less kinda flashy with kinda it'll it'll be interesting because,
你
you
说实话,不管是之前的政府还是现在的政府,大多数美国人根本就没怎么遵循过那个食物金字塔。
know, let's be honest, like, between the between even under the old like, the previous administration and and this administration, a lot of consumers really they didn't really, most most Americans didn't really follow the food pyramid.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道的。
You know?
对吧?
Let's right?
所以这大概不是你日常生活中特别在意的事。
So It probably wasn't it's not a top of mind thing in your day.
你知道,年初的时候大家谈新年决心,这种话题挺不错的。
You know, it's it's great it's great to talk about at the beginning of the year, people making New Year's resolutions and, you know, whatever.
但说实话,消费者的习惯很少会因为年份更替或政府更迭就发生巨大变化。
But, like, you know, consumer behavior rarely changes dramatically from from year to year or administration of issues.
所以。
So
但是。
but
像多力多滋这种零食的配方如果真有调整,我在想……
with the with the changes in in the in the formulation of products like a Doritos chip, I'm I'm wondering.
我正等着看实际效果会怎么样。
I'm I'm I'm waiting to see what the actual results are.
对吧?
Right?
消费者,尤其是年轻人,特别容易被颜色吸引。
Consumers are especially kind of the young demographic, they they're moved by colors.
对吧?
Right?
他们也被包装吸引,比如那种花里胡哨的包装。
They're moved by packaging, like flashy pack you know, packaging.
所以我很好奇,这个点其实没怎么被公司或者媒体认真讨论过,你知道的。
And so I'm wondering if if, yeah, it's it's I don't think this is this this point is really, really, talked about a lot, you know, with within companies or, like, in in media.
比如多力多滋辣奶酪味薯片,颜色稍微改一点点。
Just a small shift in the color from, like, a, you know, like, the the Doritos hot nacho chips.
如果是普通薯片,这变化看起来不大,但如果你面对的是个五岁、八岁的小孩,他们看到两种不同颜色,就会有明显反应,你知道的。
If it's a plain chip, I it it might seem like a small change, but, you know, when you're when you have, like, a five you know, like, a 10 year old or an eight year old and they see two different like, they don't you know, they're moved by that.
对吧?
You know?
他们就喜欢这种颜色。
They like those colors.
对吧?
Right?
你懂的。
You know?
至于味道,他们早就习惯了那些成分,你知道的,就是那些被认为不健康的配料。
And the taste they're used to the taste of, you know, of these ingredients that that, you know, that are perceived as as being unhealthy.
咱们走着瞧吧。
So we'll we'll see.
这事儿可不小。
It's it's a big deal.
我觉得这事的影响会比大多数公司和高管想象的要大得多。
I I think this is gonna be a lot a bigger deal than most companies and and executives.
他们觉得会有影响,但嘛,咱们还是走着瞧吧。
They they they think it will have, but, you know, we'll see.
我不确定你们对此有什么看法。
I don't know if you guys have any opinion on that.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实是一个转型期。
I mean, it's a it's a it's a transition time.
我认为,任何大型快消品公司最关键的就是要紧紧跟住消费者,了解他们的需求。
I think the the key for any big CPG is really to be very, very in tune with their consumer and follow their consumer.
如果他们能紧跟消费者,注意到变化,再加上AI技术能精准定位到每个人,那这就成了一场真正的战略博弈——得确保能服务好不同层次、不同世代的消费者,就像你刚才说的,布莱恩。
So if they're following their consumer and they're seeing shifts and with with AI and and and the the ability to, like, pinpoint down to that individual person, I think it's just gonna be a real strategic, you know, game to be able to ensure they're servicing all of their consumers at all different levels of kind of that wellness journey and generations as you as you pointed out too, Brian.
所以。
So
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Absolutely.
巴里,你之前在食品研究所的网络研讨会上谈过整个酒精行业,对吧?
And and, and, Barry, you were on a on a on a webinar previously at you the Food Institute talking about the whole alcohol industry.
没错吧?
Right?
这真是巨大的转变。
Like, what a huge shift.
这根本不是什么一时潮流。
This is this is this is not a this is not, like, a a fad.
这是年轻一代饮酒习惯的根本性转变。
This is a generational shift in in consumption of of of alcohol.
年轻人群根本不再喝酒了。
And that young you know, the young demographics, they they are not drinking.
他们正在远离父母和祖父母那一代人常喝的那些产品。
They are they they're shying away from, you know, from, you know, the, the, you know, the products that the parents and grandparents, you know, they they consumed.
所以,这确实是个巨大的变化。
And so, you know, it's, it's it's it's a big it's a big change.
你知道的吧。
You know?
最终会怎样我们还得走着看,但企业必须精准锁定自己的消费者,灵活调整产品、宣传和沟通方式,贴合这些目标人群。
And, we'll see how this ultimately kinda where it ultimately shakes out, but, companies really need to be hyperfocused on who their consumer is and being able to adapt products and the messaging and the communication to those to those, target demographics.
布莱恩,我想为我们的对话做个收尾。
Brian, I wanted to just finish us off in our conversation.
当你把健康趋势、成本压力和风味全球化联系起来的时候,
And, you know, when you connect, like, health evolution, value pressure, flavor globalization?
到2026年,一个成功的食品或饮料产品应该是什么样子?
What does a winning food or beverage product actually look like in 2026?
这是个好问题。
That's a great question.
我觉得关键在于不能搞一刀切。
I I think it's it's not it's it's a strategy of you can't have the one size fits all.
对吧?
Right?
其实没有哪一款产品是万能的。
I don't you know, there's no one product.
总的来说,你得找一种对健康更有益的食品或饮料,不过这个说法本身挺宽泛的。
Like, I I would say in broad strokes, you're looking for a food and beverage product that is better for you, again, like, that's a very loose term.
对吧?
Right?
我觉得这会是一个关键方向,食品饮料行业必须重点关注这一点。
But I think that's that's gonna be a a key, a a key sort of a a focus that should be a key focus for for, for food and beverage.
消费者看重的是 perceived value,但不同人对价值的理解不一样,有些人觉得价格低就是值,
It's gonna be one of perceived value so that not you know, for the you know, for some consumers, that might be a lower price point.
另一些人则希望产品比市场上现有的多点什么。
For another, it it might be adding a little bit more than what is currently out, you know, out there in the marketplace.
可能是健康功效,也可能是独特的风味,或者来自全球的口味创新。
So so whether it's a health component, maybe it's a, you know, different type of flavor or global flavors.
第三点,消费者想要的是体验。
And and I would say three, like, consumers want experience.
对吧?
Right?
他们早就厌倦了千篇一律的东西。
Like, they're tired of the same old same old.
对吧?
Right?
当我看看那些公司时,咱们不妨换个角度,看看餐饮服务这一块。
And and and, you know, when I look at, you know, companies like, you know what you know, let's let's even shift to the kind of food service side.
你看看Kava在做些什么,他们可是在颠覆传统,你说是不是?
When you look at what, you know, what what Kava's doing, they are disrupting that's you know?
而且他们的价格并不便宜。
And and and and it's not it's not cheap.
你知道的。
You know?
他们的定价比Chipotle还要高。
They have a higher price point than a Chipotle.
对吧?
Right?
但他们推出了新口味。
But they're offering new flavors.
用的食材也更健康。
They're offering better for you sort of ingredients.
你知道的。
You know?
而且他们的创新能力真的特别强。
And and, yeah, their their innovation pipeline is just amazing.
时不时就推出新的限时新品。
Like, they're coming up with new flavors, like LTOs all the time.
关键是要跟上消费者变化的步伐。
And so it's being able to, you know, innovate at the pace of where your consumer is.
不同人群的需求可能不一样,但消费者都期待新鲜感。
And that might mean different different things depending on the target demographic, but consumers want innovation.
他们希望在吃喝中也能感受到这种体验。
They want to experience that in what they're eating and drinking.
所以,总的来说,这就是食品饮料公司在2026年成功的秘诀。
So I would say those in in very broad strokes are, you know, the winning formula for food and beverage companies in 2026.
Brian,今天这场对话真的很棒。
Well, Brian, this has been a great conversation.
很高兴今天能邀请到你,非常感谢你参与我们的节目。
I'm really happy to have had you on today, and, thanks so much for joining us.
是的。
Yeah.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
谢谢你,Brian。
Thank you, Brian.
和你们聊天特别开心。
Was great chatting with you guys.
另外,谢谢。
And, yeah, thank you.
好的,巴里。
Alright, Barry.
和布莱恩的这次对话真是受益匪浅。
Well, really insightful discussion with Brian.
很高兴请他来做客。
I'm so happy to have him on.
我们最近刚和食品研究所合作过他们的网络研讨会和播客项目,能继续合作确实很棒。
I know we were recently a part of The Food Institute's webinars and and podcast opportunities, so it's it's great to, to collaborate with them for sure.
接下来给大家分享我们的五大要点。
So here for our audience is our top five.
第一,我们谈到了消费者展望和价值导向,随着2026年逐步推进,这一点越来越明显。
Number one, we talked about the consumer outlook and the value mindset, that we're seeing as we move further into 2026.
布莱恩提到消费者信心疲软,他认为这一点被快消品和零售业的领导者们严重低估了。
And Brian, was talking about weak consumer confidence, and he believes it remains underappreciated by CPG and retail leaders.
我们谈到了密歇根大学消费者信心指数徘徊在50左右,而历史平均水平是100。
We talked about the University of Michigan confidence index hovering near 50 versus the historical norm of a 100.
消费者正承受着经济压力,正如布赖恩所说,他们越来越注重性价比。
Consumers are under financial pressure, increasingly value obsessed is what Brian said.
现在的性价比要么体现在更低的价格上,也可能体现在能让人觉得物有所值的质量上。
And value now means either lower prices, but also it could mean quality that justifies the cost.
这一点我们在凯度经常提到。
So we always talk about that at Kantar.
我们一直强调,性价比不只是价格低,这一点在2026年还会持续下去。
It's it's always value beyond price, and and that's certainly, continuing into, 2026.
我们还简单聊了百事公司对乐事薯片和零食的降价,这其实反映了我们当前所处的现实。
And we talked a little bit about PepsiCo's price cuts on Lay's chips and snacks really reflecting the reality that we're in.
第二点,我们讨论了Z世代、Alpha世代和年长消费者之间的差异。
Number two, we talked a bit about demographic differences between Gen Z, Gen Alpha, and older shoppers.
消费者的行为正变得越来越分散。
Consumer behavior is increasingly fragmented.
从年龄来看,Z世代的购买力大约比X世代低三分之一,但他们的影响力依然很大,尤其受到社交媒体、创作者社群以及品牌真实性的影响,而不仅仅是价格。
By age, Gen Z has roughly one third less purchasing power than Gen X, but remains highly influential, particularly driven by social media and and the kind of creator community and the importance of brand authenticity beyond just price.
所以对这一代人来说,价值就体现在这些方面。
So that's where the value is for the that generation.
而年长的消费者更倾向于通过好市多、山姆会员店这样的渠道来省钱。
And then older consumers prioritize savings through channels like Costco, Sam's Club.
再来看年轻一代,比如我儿子这一代,属于Alpha世代。
And then you have your younger consumers like my my son's, Gen Alpha.
他们天生就是数字原住民,这进一步说明,针对不同群体制定精准的营销策略,远比一刀切的广告更重要。
They're more digitally native, reinforcing the need for just sharply differentiated strategies by cohort rather than broad one size fits all marketing.
第三点,我们谈到了高端化与性价比的结合。
And number three, we talked about premiumization meets value.
高收入群体的消费依然占到总支出的六成左右,但就连他们也在重新定义‘性价比’,思考这对他们来说到底意味着什么。
So upper income consumers still account for somewhere around 60% spend, but even this group is redefining value and the importance of what value means to them.
高收入消费者现在越来越多地转向沃尔玛和好市多,去买那些他们觉得物有所值的高端商品,比如打折的高端葡萄酒,我们就举过这个例子。
High income shoppers are increasingly turning to Walmart and also Costco for premium items at perceived deals, like discounted high end wines was one of the examples that we talked about.
不过,消费能力与资产市场紧密相关,在当前这个资产主导的经济中,高端需求很容易受到市场波动的影响。
However, spending power is closely tied to, asset markets, in this asset economy we're in, leaving premium demand vulnerable to volatility in those markets.
所以,面向高端消费者的品牌必须保持灵活,准备好应对持续的变化。
So brands targeting premium consumers must stay agile and prepare for, you know, continued shifts.
Brian提到的第四点,他说2026年将是挑战者品牌的元年。
Number four that Brian talked about, he talked about, this year, 2026, as the year of the challenger brand.
我本来觉得过去三年已经是挑战者品牌的时代了,但他根据他们观察到的所有趋势,坚信今年情况会更明显——这些品牌会继续超越老牌企业,行动更快,创新更大胆、更激进,也在数字和社交媒体上与消费者建立更紧密、更真实的连接。
I mean, I thought the last three years were the challenger brand years, but he really believes that based on everything they're seeing, more of the same this year, they're gonna continue to outpace incumbents, move faster, innovate more boldly, more daring, and connecting maybe better and more authentically on digital and social channels.
他举的谷歌的例子特别典型,想想卡夫的通心粉和奶酪,现在发生了什么变化。
And certainly his Google's example is a fantastic one as you think about kind of, you know, Kraft and mac and cheese and what's happening there.
很多这类挑战者品牌,其实更受Yuka用户的青睐。
And so many of those challenger brands, they're just preferred by Yuka.
这个应用正在发生深刻的变化。
And that, you know, that app is really changing.
它确实正在改变人们的购物方式。
It's certainly changing how people shop.
所以我觉得,这其实是个很好的提醒,说明挑战型品牌的发展势头还在继续。
And so, I just thought that was a, you know, a good reminder that this momentum with challenger brands continues.
然后第六点,或者该说第五点吧,他最后提到了饮食指南和相关政策。
And then number six, just kinda or I should say, number five, just, kind of rounding up here is he talked about, you know, dietary guidelines, you know, policy.
我们聊了聊新的食物金字塔,结果很明显,真正天然的食物、在家做饭才是赢家,也就是蛋白质、水果和蔬菜这些,同时消费者对超加工食品、糖分的兴趣确实在下降,这也跟政府的策略息息相关。
We discussed, you know, the new, food pyramid and how, you know, who wins here is kinda real food, cooking at home, which is sort of, you know, preferred with that narrative, protein, fruits, and vegetables, and, you know, definitely reducing the consumer interest in ultra processed foods and sugar and then how that's relating to government strategy.
你懂的。
You know?
现在连SNAP项目都开始禁止购买含糖饮料了,哪怕是零卡路里的调味饮料,因为里面有人工添加剂——这在那些大州可是个重大转变。
Now we have SNAP, which, for example, is banning soft drink consumption even, like, you know, zero flavored soft drinks because of the artificial ingredients, which is a real sea change in in very big states.
这么说吧,现代健康、食物金字塔,还有消费者的需求,都迎来了一个新时代。
And so, it's a it's a new day, if you will, for modern health, the food pyramid, and customers want change.
他们确实更想要健康的选择。
They definitely want healthier.
他们也期待新的口味。
They want new flavors.
他们想要来自全球的灵感和实实在在的创新,围绕更健康的生活方式。
They want global inspiration and visible innovation, around better for you.
食品和饮料领域现在有很多动向,他们确实做得非常到位。
So plenty going on in food and beverages, and and, certainly, they do a great job covering it.
太棒了,巴里。
Awesome, Barry.
好了,这期节目到这里就结束了。
Well, that does bring us to the end of this episode.
感谢来自食品研究所的布莱恩参与我们的讨论。
Thank you to Brian, from The Food Institute for for joining our discussion.
希望你们喜欢本期节目。
We hope you enjoyed our show.
一如既往,感谢收听卡特尔零售声音片段播客。
And as always, thanks for listening to the Kantar Retail Sound Bites podcast.
我们也非常希望你们能在收听的平台给我们打分和留言评价。
And we'd love for you to rate and review us on wherever you're listening.
那太好了。
That would be fantastic.
你们随时可以在LinkedIn上联系我和拉切尔,特别要感谢维多利亚负责制作和推广我们的播客,让这一切成为可能。
You can always reach out to, Rachel and I on LinkedIn, and especially wanna thank Victoria for producing and marketing our podcast and really just making it happen.
谢谢大家,我们两周后再见。
So thank you, everyone, and we'll see you in two weeks.
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