OpenAI 转向脱离微软独立发展

OpenAI 刚刚取消了微软的独家授权，还放开了对企业客户的限制，结果微软股价在周三财报发布前就提前上涨了。

OpenAI just stripped Microsoft's exclusive license and they uncapped their enterprise business, and Microsoft's stock is paying for ahead of Wednesday's earning call.

但在这之前，那个搞 AlphaGo 的人居然融了十一亿美元，直接跳过大语言模型。

But before that, the AlphaGo guy raised $1,100,000,000 to skip LLMs entirely.

马斯克和阿尔特曼一起走进了奥克兰的法庭，而一家德国机器人初创公司则成功说服了宝马和百事，认为机器人做事前得先动脑子。

Elon Musk and Sam Altman have both walked into a courtroom in Oakland together, and a German robotics startup has convinced BMW and PepsiCo that robots should think before they act.

好吧。

Alright.

首先登场的是家叫 Secreact 的公司，总部在苏特加德。

First up, we have a Suttgard based startup called Secreact.

他们刚完成了一轮一亿一千万美元的 B 轮融资，就是要造出能在行动前模拟后果的机器人。

They just raised a $110,000,000 in a series b round of funding to build robots that simulate the consequences of their actions before they actually move.

这轮融资由 Headline 领投，Bullhound 和 Daphne 也参与了。

This whole round was led by headline, and they also had some participation from Bullhound, Daphne.

还有 Felix Capital，另外一些老股东比如 Airstreet 和 Credom 也跟投了。

They had Felix Capital, and then I think a bunch of their existing backers like Airstreet and Credom.

他们周日宣布的，这笔钱主要用在两件事上。

They announced Sunday and the money funds two things in particular.

第一，他们在波士顿开了新办公室，还在升级他们的Cortex 2.0——他们管这叫机器人的‘大脑’。

Number one, they're opening a Boston office and they're scaling their Cortex two point o, which they're calling kind of their robot brain.

Cortex 2.0特别有意思的地方在于……

This is what's interesting specifically about Cortex Cortex two point o.

它把一个世界模型直接嫁接到视觉-语言-动作这套系统上。

It bolts a world model onto a vision language action stack.

我们现在所有的机器人，AI就是看见东西，然后直接行动。

So, basically, all of the robots that we have today, the AI can just see things and then it picks.

但Cortex 2.0不一样，它先‘想一想’，再看、再动。

Cortex two is going to think first before it sees and and makes an action.

它会把每个可能的动作，先在物理和物体行为的模拟模型里跑一遍。

It runs possible actions through a learning model of physics and object behavior.

比如看到一堆书，它会想：我要是冲得太快撞上去，书会怎么倒？

So, you know, it's like looking at a stack of books, it's like, if I move forward too fast and bump that over, this is what's gonna happen.

如果我伸手去拿这本书，接下来会发生什么，它都能提前算出来。

If I move my arm to grab this book, this is what's gonna happen.

它能预判自己每个动作之后会引发什么连锁反应，比如物理上的变化，这在安全方面特别重要，能避免仓库里的货物被机器人撞坏。

So it's like predicting what its actions will you know, what what course what things will happen, the physics that will happen after it makes a certain movement, which is really interesting in safety and in, you know, making sure that stock inside of warehouses isn't getting destroyed by robots.

它真正在理解自己每个行为的后果，这点特别厉害。

They're really understanding the implications of their actions, which is very interesting.

另外，当它观察环境、决定行动时，会优先选择最有可能成功的方案，然后随着场景变化实时调整。

And in addition to this, when it is looking and deciding what to do, it's going to pick basically the action that is most likely to work, and then it's going to update in real time as the scene changes.

对吧？

Right?

因为在仓库里，机器人盯着一堆货准备拿的时候，或者在修车厂盯着一辆车的时候，它看的不是一张静态照片。

Because in a warehouse, when a robot's sitting there looking at, you know, a stack of product to go grab and move or when it's looking at, you know, a car in a repair shop, it's not looking at a picture.

它看的是实时变动的画面。

It's looking at a moving image.

周围的东西一直在动。

Things are constantly moving.

CEO是拉德·吉尔德，他之前谈过这个。

The CEO is Rad Gild, and he was talking about this.

他说：‘我们很早就押注，真正的机器人和AI不可能在实验室里搞出来。',

He said, quote, we bet early that you can't build real robotics, AI, in a lab.

你得靠真实场景的部署、量产落地、直面失败，用数据飞轮来驱动。'

You build it with a data flywheel fed by real deployments, shipping into production, living with the failures.

他们已经完成了超过十亿次真实的生产抓取任务，还有一大堆顶尖客户。

So they've already done over a billion real production picks, and they have a bunch of incredible customers.

客户包括宝马、戴姆勒卡车，还有百事可乐。

They have a BMW, Daimler Truck, and also PepsiCo.

这跟据说杰夫·贝佐斯的隐形AI实验室正在追的思路，本质上是一回事。

This is the same world model thesis basically that Jeff Bezos' Stealth AI Lab is reportedly chasing.

他们刚完成了一轮100亿美元的融资。

They have a $10,000,000,000 round.

彭博社上周刚曝出这个消息。

Bloomberg just flagged it last week.

我觉得咱们已经讲过了。

I think we covered it already.

不管怎样，2026年的机器人领域正变得特别有意思，这些世界模型我觉得会是其中的关键。

Anyways, robotics in 2026 is getting to be one of these really interesting areas, and these world models, I think are gonna be a huge part of that.

顺便说一句，咱们聊了这么久的世界模型，其实很多人还不太懂它到底是什么。

And just like as a one interesting thing, because we've been talking about these world models for a while, and I think a lot of people don't understand them.

像Runway这样的视频公司，据说一直在搞世界模型。

But we have video companies like Runway that has allegedly been working on a world model.

还有好多顶尖人才，这些年陆续从OpenAI、Anthropic这些大公司跳出来，专门做世界模型，但咱们平时根本听不到他们的动静。

We have a ton of the kind of like the top people that there's a bunch of big people that left, like, OpenAI and Anthropic and other places over the years to work on these world models, and we don't hear about them a lot.

所以我对这个特别期待。

So I'm really excited about this.

现在已经开始看到实际应用了。

We're starting to see the application.

我觉得随着机器人技术发展，这些世界模型迟早会冒出来，到时候我们才会恍然大悟——原来他们过去五年偷偷搞的东西，对现在人形机器人和其他机器人来说，简直是太关键了。

And I think, as robotics gets bigger, these world models are gonna come out of the woodwork, and we're gonna realize, oh my gosh, whatever they've been working on for the last, you know, five years is incredibly important and applicable to to what we need for humanoid and other robots today.

好的。

Okay.

还有另一件事，戴维·西尔弗你知道吧？就是那个在DeepMind打造出AlphaGo、AlphaZero和AlphaStar的大牛。

Another story is that David Silver, this is the guy who built AlphaGo, AlphaZero, and AlphaStar at DeepMind.

他刚给自己的新创业公司Ineffable Intelligence完成了11亿美元的种子轮融资，这个数额创下了纪录。

He just announced a record $1,100,000,000 seed round for his new startup, which is called Ineffable Intelligence.

公司估值达到了51亿美元。

The valuation on this is $5,100,000,000.

这是欧洲历史上规模最大的种子轮融资。

It is the largest seed round in European history.

这轮融资由红杉、光速、英伟达、DST全球、谷歌，还有英国主权人工智能基金联合领投。

It was co led by Sequoia and Lightspeed, NVIDIA, DST Index, Google, and the UK Sovereign AI Fund.

这些机构全都投了钱，所以这轮融资的规模真的超大。

All of them were writing checks into this, so this is a massive round.

而且这人在行业里绝对是个传奇人物。

Obviously, he's an absolute legend in the industry.

彭博社的记者威尔·马蒂斯最早拿到了这笔交易的细节，并且一直在跟进报道。

Bloomberg's reporter, Will Mathis, had the deal terms first and was kind of reporting on this.

他 basically 说，这家公司的名字本身就说明了一切。

And essentially, he says that the pitch is in the company's name.

CEO西尔弗认为，智能最核心的部分是他所说的‘不可言说’的东西——就是那种你根本没法用语言表达出来的东西。

The CEO, Silver, thinks that the most important part of intelligence is what he's calling ineffable, meaning you you literally can't capture them in language.

像LLM这种靠预测下一个词的模型，你知道的，它们终究会遇到瓶颈。

So LLMs, which are kind of next token prediction models, right, these are instead of, you know, human text or something, he's saying that those are gonna hit a ceiling.

而他的赌注是完全不同的另一条路。

And his bet is a different path entirely.

他押注的是大规模强化学习代理，这些代理能从自身经验中学习，构建世界模型，这正是他和里奇·萨顿去年提出的‘经验时代’。

He's betting on massive scale reinforcement learning agents that learn from their own experience, world models, and what he and Rich Sutton wrote up last year as the, quote, era of experience.

这其实特别有意思，因为这跟现在的Anthropic和OpenAI走的路子完全不一样。

Now this is really interesting because it's kind of a a different direction altogether from Anthropic and OpenAI right now.

而且，你刚才也听我说了，世界模型有多重要。

And, I mean, you just heard earlier I was talking about a lot of these world models and the importance of them.

所以挺有意思的是，我们觉得要想真正实现通用人工智能，或者让AI更上一层楼，可能得跳出大语言模型，转向世界模型。

So this is kind of it's interesting that we feel like in order to perhaps get to AGI or to get to the next level of AI, we're gonna have to move away from LLMs and possibly move into world models.

当然，这还是一种理论。

Now this is a theory.

但我们已经在实际用它了。

We're working with it.

说实话，我们能看到这理论里头巨大的潜力，所以我对它特别有信心。

I mean, we can see a ton of, potential in this theory, so I actually have a lot of confidence in this.

不过到目前为止，Anthropic和OpenAI的模型还是规模最大、用户最多的。

But, you know, to this point, Anthropic OpenAI, these are the models that have scaled the most.

它们现在确实是行业领头羊。

They have the most users, and they're they're kind of at the forefront.

但我一点都不意外，未来世界模型可能会开始跟它们正面竞争。

But I wouldn't be surprised if these world models start kinda kinda competing.

坦白讲，我在这事儿上是有切身利益的——因为当你真拿这些模型去开发实际应用时，光靠纯语言预训练的局限性很快就暴露无遗了。

If I'm being honest, I have some skin in this debate because when you actually build production apps on top of these models, the limits of just kind of pure language pre training shows up pretty fast.

帕特·格雷迪在红杉资本工作，他最近在他们的博客里引用了一句话，我一看就愣住了。

Pat Grady, he works over at Sequoia, and he put it in their he put a quote in their blog recently that I was like, oh, man.

这句话简直直击要害。

That it it's pretty pointed at this exact point.

他说，语言是对世界的精彩压缩。

He says, language is a beautiful compression of the world.

但它不是世界本身。

It is not the world.

我觉得这话特别到位。

And I think that's pretty accurate.

所以，如果Ineffable Intelligence的CEO西尔弗是对的，那未来十年的AI工具，跟过去三年完全不一样。

So if Silver, the CEO of ineffable intelligence, is right, then the next decade of AI tools looks nothing like the last three years.

但如果他错了，那有人就是把十亿美元直接烧了。

But if he's wrong, then somebody just lit a billion dollars on fire.

在我看来，投这笔钱的投资者，从来不是那种容易赌错的人，所以这事特别值得盯着看。

In my opinion, the investors who are putting money into this are not the kind that lose those bets often, so I think this is gonna be exciting to watch.

好吧。

Okay.

埃隆·马斯克和萨姆·阿尔特曼。

Elon Musk versus Sam Altman.

这事儿终于要上法庭了。

This is finally going to trial.

我们听了这么多八卦，看了他们来回互怼的推文，都快记不清多久了。

We've heard the drama and seen the tweets back and forth for, like, I don't know.

感觉像过了好几年似的。

It feels like forever.

都超过一年了。

Over a year.

对吧？

Right?

今天早上，陪审团遴选已经在奥克兰联邦法院开始了。

The jury selection started this morning at the Oakland Federal Courthouse.

主审法官是伊冯娜·冈萨雷斯·罗杰。

Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Roger was presiding.

明天就要开庭辩论了。

The open arguments are happening tomorrow.

NPR的鲍比·艾伦做了个前瞻报道，想了解完整时间线的话可以去看看。

NPR's Bobby Allen has a preview on this, basically, if you want the full timeline.

这场审判预计持续四周，证人名单简直太炸了——全是硅谷科技圈的大佬，马斯克、阿尔特曼、格雷格·布拉克曼全在列。

But the trial is scheduled to run four weeks, and the witness list I mean, this is just pure Silicon Valley tech drama, but we have Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Greg Brackmann.

还有萨提亚·纳德拉。

We have Satya Nadella.

他们一个都跑不掉，都得上庭作证，而且案子现在被大幅聚焦了。

All of them are expected to take the stand, and the case has been narrowed very dramatically.

最初马斯克在2024年提了大约26项指控。

Originally, there was about 26 claims that Musk filed in 2024.

没错。

So yeah.

天哪。

Jeez.

都两年了。

It's been, like, two years.

就剩下两个指控了。

Only two of those claims have survived.

不当得利和违反慈善信托。

Unjust enrichment and breach of charitable trust.

这场辩论的核心其实就是这个。

The arguments basically are gonna boil down to this.

埃隆·马斯克当初给OpenAI捐了上千万美元，那时候它还是个非营利组织。

Elon Musk donated tens of millions of dollars to OpenAI when it was a nonprofit.

但据他说，萨姆·阿尔特曼骗了他，把公司转成了营利性机构，现在估值快到一万亿美元了。

And then Sam Altman, according to him, defrauded him by converting it into a for profit now valued near a trillion dollars.

如果你是个关注AI政策的知识工作者，我觉得这事的意义远不止是他们俩的私人恩怨。

If you're a knowledge worker watching AI policy, I think this matters way beyond kind of this personal feud that we've seen play out.

戈麦斯·罗杰斯法官完全可以暂停OpenAI的营利化转型，或者重新定义非营利AI实验室如何变成商业实体，我觉得这会引发一连串连锁反应，影响到Anthropic，甚至下一代AI模型的发展。

Judge Gonzalez Rogers could effectively pause OpenAI's for profit conversion or rewrite the rules for how nonprofit AI labs become commercial entities, which I think, like, there's a lot of cascading impacts that could happen onto Anthropic and I think onto the next kind of gen of these AI models.

在X上，卡拉·斯威舍称这是‘决定AI最初非营利承诺是否还有意义’的案子。

Over on X, Kara Swisher called it, quote, the case that determines whether AI's foundational nonprofit promise means anything.

我觉得她说得挺准的。

I think that's kind of accurate.

如果你仔细看纳德拉的证词，尤其是那部分，我觉得真正关键的合作伙伴关系事实会在宣誓下浮出水面，再加上微软和OpenAI今天刚发的公告，这事儿肯定特别有料。

If you watch the Ned Nadella testimony in particular, I think that's where the actual partnership facts are gonna come out under oath, and it is going to be especially spicy given what Microsoft and OpenAI just announced today.

这事儿简直炸裂，不过咱们还是先聊聊微软和OpenAI今天刚宣布的动态吧。

So this is wild, but let's talk about what Microsoft and OpenAI just announced today.

OpenAI和微软宣布彻底改写他们之间这段推动了整个消费级AI革命的合作关系。

OpenAI and Microsoft announced a fundamental rewrite of the partnership that has powered most of the consumer AI revolution.

微软失去了独家使用OpenAI模型的权限，而OpenAI现在可以自由地在AWS、谷歌云，甚至任何地方销售自己的产品。

Microsoft loses its exclusive license to OpenAI's models, and OpenAI is now free to sell its products on AWS, Google Cloud, and basically anywhere it wants.

微软之前一直压着这事儿没动，我觉得OpenAI早就不爽了——你看看Anthropic，靠企业市场已经迅速火起来了。

So Microsoft was kind of holding this back for quite a while here, and I think OpenAI hated this because you saw Anthropic get massive adoption with enterprise.

微软将不再向OpenAI支付收入分成，而OpenAI给微软的分成现在设了上限。

Microsoft is going to stop paying revenue share to OpenAI, and OpenAI's revenue share to Microsoft is now capped.

以前是没有上限的。

Before, it was uncapped.

从现在到2030年，CNBC的海登·菲尔德、彭博社、《金融时报》都在报道这件事。

So running through 2030, CNBC's Hayden Field was reporting on this and Bloomberg, the Financial Times, information.

大家都在纷纷写文章讨论这个事。

Everyone was basically writing stories about this.

这事儿早就被炒得沸沸扬扬了。

It's it's been pretty wild widely reported on.

微软股价一度跌了5%，后来回升到跌2%左右。

Microsoft stock dropped about 5%, before pairing to around 2%.

就在同一则新闻出来后，亚马逊股价反而涨了1%。

Amazon was up 1% on this exact same headline.

在深入分析这背后的意义之前，我想先说说为什么我觉得看涨的观点正在被炒作——顺便给我的创业项目AI Box打个广告。

I think before we get into what this actually means and why I think, I think the bull case is being floated, perhaps, I wanna give a quick shout out to my own startup, which is AI Box.

如果你在为ChatGPT Plus、Claw、Gemini、Grok、Eleven Labs这些音频和图像模型付费，那你其实花的钱远远超出了必要。

If you're paying for ChatGPT Plus, Claw, Gemini, Grok, Eleven Labs for audio image, there's tons of these different models out there, you are spending way more than you need to be.

过去几年，我亲自创办了一家公司，叫AI Box。

Over the last couple years, I've personally built a company called AI Box.

这就是我推荐给那些总问我怎么用AI又不花上百万美元的朋友的方案。

This is what I recommend to my friends who keep asking how to actually use AI without spending a million dollars.

你可以在一个平台里访问80多个不同的AI模型。

You get access to over 80 different AI models in one place.

不仅能用上OpenAI、Anthropic、Google、xAI的所有主力模型，还能用上一大堆开源的顶尖模型。

You get every flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, plus you get a ton of open source heavy hitter models.

你可以根据手头的任务，自由选择最适合的模型，而不是被逼着用一个模型搞定所有事。

You pick the model that is the best for the task in front of you, so you're not forced to kind of, you know, use one model and use that for everything.

对吧？

Right?

Anthropic写文字确实厉害，但它没法生成图片。

Anthropic is awesome for text, but it doesn't generate images.

你得跑去ChatGPT，想提升音频质量又得去Eleven Labs，东奔西跑的。

So you gotta go over to ChatGPT, and then you wanna go use something to kind of scale up your audio, you gotta go over to Eleven Labs.

这些全都在一个地方搞定。

All of that is in one place.

我最兴奋的是我们上线的自动化构建器。

The thing that I'm the most excited about is the automation builder that we shipped.

你用大白话描述想要什么，它就能自动给你搭好流程。

You describe what you want in plain English, and it will build the workflow for you.

根本不用懂编程。

You don't need to know how to code.

也不用去折腾Zapier、N8N，或者学别的平台。

You don't need to wrestle with Zapier or N8N or learn any other platforms.

你只要说清楚想要什么，它就帮你建好。

You just describe what you want and it builds it.

而且每月只要8.99美元。

And it is $8.99 a month.

每月8.99美元。

$8.99.

所以如果你想把所有订阅都整合在一起，开始自动化你的实际工作，赶紧去试试 aibox.ai。

So if you wanna consolidate all of your subscriptions and start automating your real work, go check out aibox.ai.

描述里有链接。

There is a link in the description.

好的。

Okay.

咱们聊聊OpenAI和微软之间的事吧，因为OpenAI刚取消了微软的独家授权，我觉得这个决定背后影响很大。

Let's talk about what's going on with OpenAI and Microsoft because OpenAI just stripped Microsoft's exclusive license, and I think that there is a lot happening downstream of that decision.

从结构上讲，真正变化的是微软依然会是OpenAI的主要云合作伙伴。

Structurally, what actually changed is that Microsoft is going to remain OpenAI's primary cloud partner.

Azure在新产品发布上还是优先级最高，理论上是这样，但独家权没了。

Azure still gets first launch on new products, kind of in theory, but the exclusivity is gone.

OpenAI现在可以在任何云平台上提供服务，微软也不再对转售的产品向OpenAI支付分成了。

OpenAI can serve any product on any cloud, and Microsoft is no longer going to pay a revenue share back to OpenAI on resold products.

所以OpenAI给微软的收入分成还是20%，但现在设了上限，这个上限会持续到2030年。

So OpenAI's revenue share to Microsoft is still 20%, but it's now capped, and the cap runs through twenty thirty.

微软的IP授权能保留到2032年，但不再是独家的了。

So Microsoft keeps the IP license through 2032, but it is nonexclusive.

微软还保留着它27%的股权。

And Microsoft keeps its 27% equity stake.

据彭博社估算，这部分股权目前估值大约是1350亿美元。

It's currently valued at around a $135,000,000,000 according to Bloomberg.

不过市场对这个消息的反应，其实对微软不太有利。

The market read on this though, is actually kind of bad for Microsoft.

韦伯·布什的分析师丹·艾弗斯，平时对微软总是特别乐观，但今天早上他的报告里，观点完全反转了。

So Webb Bush's Dan Ives, is normally kind of a a permanent bull on everything Microsoft, he actually flipped the framing, in his note this morning.

他说，这笔交易实际上让OpenAI走上了更稳健的上市之路。

He said that the deal, quote, puts OpenAI in a strong path forward to going public.

他还提到，这对微软来说也是个好事，因为能让他们真正摆脱对OpenAI的技术依赖。

And he also said that it is a positive moment for Microsoft because it lets them, quote, develop tech independence from OpenAI.

他们还能跟Anthropic合作，比如一起做Copilot这类项目。

They also can do things like partner with Anthropic and, you know, for Copilot or something like that.

所以Ives觉得这是双赢，但你看看Kobechi在X上发的那篇帖子，直接贴了个股价下跌的图表。

So Ives is basically reading into it as both companies winning, but if you look at something like the Kobechi letter on X, they just posted a stock down chart with the line.

他们说，AI革命里最重要的这对搭档，现在正式变成开放式婚姻了。

They said the AI revolution's most important couple is officially open marriage.

我觉得这两种观点都在疯传，两种截然不同的解读。

I think both of these are are going kinda viral, both of these different takes.

对吧？

Right?

要么说这对谁都好，要么觉得这根本没那么牛。

Like, oh, it's good for everyone or maybe this isn't the greatest thing.

我觉得真正有意思的是第二层解读，表面报道其实漏掉了关键点。

I think the second order angles are where it gets really interesting and where I think the surface coverage is kind of missing the story.

首先，这个消息正好赶在微软发布第三季度财报的前两天出来。

First, this lands two days before Microsoft reports their q three fiscal earnings.

而且，Azure在固定汇率下的增长率被指引在37%到38%之间，比去年的40%明显放缓了。

And also, Azure's growth has been guided 37 to 38% in kind of constant currency, and that is decelerating from 40 the prior year.

微软一直把原因归咎于GPU供应不足。

And Microsoft has been blaming, you know, like the GPU supply.

天哪。

Like, oh, man.

我们想增长也增长不了。

We can't grow as much as we want.

就是这个GPU供应的问题。

There's this kind of g GPU supply problem.

如果周三的电话会还得解释，失去OpenAI独家分销权会对Azure未来的市场需求造成什么影响，那这个说法可就难圆了。

If Wednesday's call now, you know, has to also explain how losing exclusive OpenAI distribution affects forward Azure demand, that is a much harder story to spin.

其次，我觉得这其实正式宣告了4月13日那封泄露的OpenAI内部备忘录里提到的僵局结束了——当时OpenAI的营收负责人丹尼斯·德雷瑟跟全体员工说，和微软的合作‘限制了我们触达企业客户的能力’。

And second, I think, this is kind of the formal end of the standoff that leaked in the OpenAI internal memo on April 13 where OpenAI's revenue chief, Dennis Dresser, basically told all of the staff that the Microsoft partnership had, quote, limited our ability to reach enterprise customers.

我觉得亚马逊Bedrock的需求，说实话，简直吓人。

And I think that demand for the Amazon Bedrock offering was, quote, frankly staggering.

所以今天的公告，其实就是把OpenAI早就干的事儿给合法化了。

So today's announcement is essentially OpenAI legalizing what they were already doing.

我觉得第三点是，这还把FTC对当初OpenAI和微软合作结构的审查给拖延了。

And I think the third part of this is that this also kicks the can on FTC's review of the original OpenAI Microsoft structure.

非独家授权，反垄断机构查起来可就难多了。

A nonexclusive license is a much harder antitrust target.

我觉得这时间点，肯定不是巧合。

I think that timing is not a coincidence.

微软和OpenAI今天都说想‘简化合作’，我敢打赌，这其实就是企业套话，意思是我们得让监管机构没那么多把柄可抓。

Microsoft and OpenAI both said today they wanted to, quote, simplify the partnership, which I'm pretty sure is just like corporate speak for, you know, let's give the regulators less surface area to pull on.

他们其实就是说：咱们被盯上了。

So they're like, we're getting scrutinized.

赶紧把合作方式改一改。

Let's change the arrangement.

等政府那边——你知道的，他们办什么事都慢得要命——真轮到查的时候，这事儿早就洗得差不多了。

And then, you know, by the time the the government, which is insanely slow on anything, gets around to it, it's, you know, more a little more kosher.

所以，如果你要听看多微软这边的说法，那其实跟我观点正好相反。但如果你真想听，我觉得他们可能会说，微软其实没损失多少。

So now if you want the bull case for Microsoft on this, it's it's kind of the opposite of my opinion, but if if you want it, I think what you what you could say is that Microsoft didn't actually lose that much.

对吧？

You know?

他们还是保留了20%的股权。

They kept the 20% equity stake.

还有那个知识产权授权也留着呢。

They kept the IP license.

对吧？

You know?

他们还避开了利润分成的负担。

They kind of got off the hook for paying a revenue share.

本来他们也不想付，现在又顺手能往Copilot里塞Anthropic的云服务了——听说他们已经在内测了。

They didn't really wanna pay anyways, and they freed themselves to ship Anthropix Cloud inside of Copilot, which they are reportedly already piloting.

所以，这就是为什么有人觉得这事根本没那么严重的原因。

So that's kind of the bull case on why it's not really that big of a deal.

但就算有这些，我还是觉得微软今天才是真正的输家。

But even with all of that, I still think Microsoft is the big loser today.

独家销售渠道，这才是微软真正的护城河。

The exclusive sale channels, was, you know, Microsoft's actual moat.

持有OpenAI的股权当然不错，但它没法保护Azure的企业客户管线。

Equity in OpenAI is awesome, but it doesn't really protect Azure's enterprise pipeline.

过去两年Azure能超越AWS，根本原因就是OpenAI的绑定效应。

And the entire reason that Azure outgrew AWS over the last two years was the OpenAI lock in.

很多公司为了用上OpenAI最新的技术，不得不把业务迁到Azure，因为那时候只有那里能用。

So many companies were forced to move over to Azure if they wanted to get the latest and greatest from OpenAI because that was the only place it was going.

现在AWS可以拿同样的模型，靠价格和功能跟它正面竞争了，而两周前OpenAI那份备忘录，已经清楚说明了市场需求有多猛。

AWS now gets to compete on price and surface area with the exact same model, and the OpenAI memo from two weeks ago basically tells you exactly what demand looks like.

简直吓人。

It is staggering.

所以按OpenAI自己说的，我觉得接下来AWS那边肯定会迎来一波大迁徙。

So in OpenAI's own words, I think we're gonna see some really big movement over on AWS.

乌尔托米公司的布拉德·格舍纳一直强调，OpenAI 两年内就能做到一千亿美元的收入。就算他只说对了一半，那微软失去了独家分销权，损失的可不只是小数目。

Brad Gershner at Ultomir, has been basically pounding the drum that OpenAI is on a path to a $100,000,000,000 in revenue inside of a couple years, if he's even half right, then the company that just lost exclusive distribution, Microsoft, to that revenue stream, that's a pretty big hit.

最巧的是，就在同一天，萨姆·阿尔特曼、埃隆·马斯克和萨提亚·纳德拉三人一起走进了奥克兰法庭，准备打一场为期四周的官司。

So the last piece is that this is the partnership restructure on the same day that Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Satya Nadella are all walking into the Oakland courtroom for a four week trial.

如果你想知道AI商业的未来走向，今天这个信号再清楚不过了——OpenAI和微软联手垄断的时代，正式结束了。

And if you're trying to kind of read the future of AI as a business, I think today is one of the cleanest possible signals that the consolidated kind of OpenAI Microsoft era is over.

接下来，我们肯定会看到各大云服务商、模型公司、各种供应商之间，竞争和合作轮番上演。

These I think we're gonna see a lot more competition and deals play out across all of the different cloud providers, the different model providers, all of the different vendors.

总的来说，这对资本主义是好事。

And I think overall, this is good for, you know, capitalism.

对市场是好事。

It's good for the market.

对消费者也是好事。

It's good for consumers.

所以我挺高兴的。

So I'm happy with this.

好了。

Alright.

今天的内容就到这里。

That's the show for today.

如果你觉得有收获，麻烦在苹果播客留个评论，或者在Spotify上点个星星，这对我真的特别重要。

If you got something out of it, it would mean the world to me if you dropped a comment on Apple Podcasts or if you hit the stars over on Spotify.

在Spotify上点星星的地方是在‘关于’页面。

It's the about tab where you can kind of drop some stars on Spotify.

总之，非常感谢你收听。

Anyways, thank you so much for tuning in.

如果你想以每月8.99美元的价格，访问80多个AI模型，还能用纯英文直接搭建自动化流程，欢迎去看看我的创业项目aibox.ai。

If you wanna get access to over 80 AI models and an automation builder that runs on plain English for $8.99 a month, go check out my startup, aibox.ai.

链接在简介里。

A link is in the description.

咱们下期再见。

I'll catch you guys all in the next episode.