本集简介
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很多产品团队和创始人会开发出某个产品。
A lot of product teams, a lot of founders build something.
它开始展现出一些成功迹象,但突然之间就停止增长了。
It starts to show some success, and then all of sudden it just stops growing.
为了诊断增长放缓的原因,我会问一系列问题。
There's a series of questions that I ask to diagnose why is growth slowing.
第一个问题是:客户是否在流失?
The first question is, are customers leaving?
想想他们为了使用产品所经历的重重考验。
Think about the gauntlet they went through to get to the product.
他们是怎么知道我的产品的?
How did they even find out about me?
这本身就已经很难且不太可能了。
That was hard already and improbable.
他们并没有只是从首页离开,这同样不太可能,而是来到了定价页面。
They didn't just bounce off the homepage, which is again improbable, and they got to the pricing page.
这并没有吓跑他们。
That didn't scare them off.
他们实际上有预算,并且买下了这个愚蠢的东西。
They actually had the budget and bought the stupid thing.
经历了这一切,显然说明他们希望它能成功,但他们却说:不。
And after all of that, which clearly means they wanted it to work, they're like, no.
再见。
Bye.
什么?
What?
从情感上讲,你得停下来想一想:等等。
Like like, just on an emotional level, you gotta go, wait a minute.
这太糟糕了。
That's terrible.
第二步是定价和定位。
Step two is pricing, positioning.
你的定价太低了,因为你只是随便猜的,而且从来没调整过。
Your prices are way too low because you just guessed and you haven't changed them.
经常发生的情况是,你提价了,但注册量却没变化。
What often happens is you raise prices and sign ups don't change.
想象一家有上千名员工、年收入四亿美元的公司,或者其他类似的规模。
Think about a company with a thousand employees and 400,000,000 in revenue or whatever.
如果他们看到一个每月2美元的产品,甚至每月100美元的产品,心里就会想:这肯定不够好。
If they see a product that's $2 a month or even $100 a month, thought is like, that can't be good enough.
我们把这场对话定位为如何应对增长停滞,但它同样适用于如何实现更大增长。
We position this conversation as how to deal with stalled growth, but it's actually just as useful for how do I grow more.
你现在知道哪些渠道已经饱和,哪些还没有吗?
Do you know right now which channels are saturated and which aren't?
你不能永远只依赖营销。
You can't just rely on marketing forever.
仅仅增加一个小小的功能,然后指望靠投放谷歌广告就能成功,是行不通的。
Just adding one little feature and then hoping we can flog AdWords is not going to work.
接下来会发生什么?
What comes next?
最后一个问题:你真的需要增长吗?
The last question is, do you need to grow?
我们都听过这句话:如果你不增长,你就是在死亡。
We all have heard the phrase, if you're not growing, you're dying.
这真的对吗?还是说这只是投资者用来让创始人即使在不该增长时也拼命增长的说法?
Is that true, or is that the kind of thing that investors use to make founders try to grow even when they shouldn't?
今天,我的嘉宾是杰森·科恩。
Today, my guest is Jason Cohen.
杰森是一位四次创业者,其中包括两家独角兽公司,其中之一是WP Engine。
Jason is a four time founder, including two unicorns, one being WP Engine.
他不仅是一位非凡的构建者和企业家,还是一位杰出的作家,乐于分享产品智慧。
He's not just an incredible builder and entrepreneur, he's also an incredible writer and share of product wisdom.
他已经在网络上分享自己的建议超过二十年了。
He's been sharing his advice online for over twenty years now.
我长期以来一直是Jason的忠实粉丝,能邀请他来做客播客真是太棒了。
I've been a huge fan of Jason's from afar for so long and it was such a treat to have him on the podcast.
我们本可以聊上一千个话题,我肯定会再请他回来。
There are a million things we could have talked about, and I'm definitely going to have him back.
在这次对话中,我们全程讨论了他关于产品增长停滞时该怎么做的一套非常实用且富有帮助的框架。
In this conversation we spent the entire time talking about his very actionable and very helpful framework for what to do when your product's growth stalls.
我觉得他看待这个问题的方式极其务实、真实且可操作,如果你正在寻找如何重燃产品增长或加速产品增长的思路,听完这次对话,你的大脑一定会充满灵感。
I found his way of looking at the problem incredibly practical and real and actionable, and if you're looking for ideas for how to rekindle your product's growth, or just accelerate the growth of your product, you're gonna walk away from this conversation with your mind buzzing.
另外,我要补充的是,经过二十年的在线博客写作,Jason即将出版他的第一本正式书籍。
Also, I'll add that after twenty years of blogging online, Jason is about to publish his very first real book.
这本书名叫《隐形倍增器》。
It's called hidden multipliers.
你现在可以在hiddenmultipliers.com上预购。
You can now preorder online at hiddenmultipliers.com.
我打算买上一大堆。
I am gonna grab a bunch.
我打赌听完这场对话后,你也会这么想。
I bet after listening to this conversation you will too.
如果你喜欢这个播客,别忘了在你最喜欢的播客应用或YouTube上订阅并关注。
If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.
如果你成为我通讯的内部订阅者,你将免费获得超过20款出色产品的全年使用权,包括Lovable、Replid、Bolt、Gamma、N8N、Linear、Devon、PostHoc、Superhuman、Descript、WhisperFlow、Perplexity、Warp、Granolah、Magic Pattern、Drake、Gastro、Pure、Demobin和Stripe Atlas的全年免费服务。
And if you become an insider subscriber of my newsletter, you get a year free of over 20 incredible products, including a year free of lovable, Replid, Bolt, Gamma, N8N, Linear, Devon, PostHoc, Superhuman, Descript, WhisperFlow, Perplexity, Warp, Granolah, Magic Pattern, Drake, Gastro, Pure, Demobin, and Stripe Atlas.
前往lenny'snewsletter.com,点击Product Pass。
Head on over to lenny'snewsletter.com and click product pass.
好了,接下来在短暂的广告之后,我为大家带来Jason Cohen的对话。
With that, I bring you Jason Cohen after a short word from our sponsors.
本集由Ten Web赞助播出,这家公司早在ChatGPT出现之前就开创了AI建站技术。
This episode is brought to you by ten web, the company that pioneered AI website building before ChatGPT.
在过去三年里,已有超过两百万个网站通过10Web的Vibe Coding平台生成。
In the last three years, over 2,000,000 websites have been generated with 10Web's vibe coding platform.
10Web的Vibe Coding平台是构建网站的强大方式。
10Web's vibe coding platform is a powerful way to build websites.
把它想象成适用于WordPress的前端和后端版Lovable。
Think of it as lovable for WordPress, front end and back end.
用户可以构建任何复杂程度的网站,包括电商、作品集、信息网站、博客,并且自带WordPress管理面板和数千个即用型插件。
Users can build any website at any complexity, ecommerce, portfolios, information websites, blogs, and it comes with a WordPress admin panel and thousands of ready to use plugins.
10Web还为SaaS公司、市场平台、托管服务商、MSPs和代理机构提供网站生成的API即服务。
10Web also offers website generation as an API as a service for SaaS companies, marketplaces, hosting providers, MSPs, MSPs, and agencies.
SaaS公司可以通过API嵌入该功能,让用户直接在其平台内启动AI生成的网站,并连接到他们自己的数据。
SaaS companies can embed it via API so that users can launch AI generated sites directly inside of their platform connected to their own data.
代理机构和MSPs可以获得白标仪表板,用于管理客户并以自己的品牌转售服务。
Agencies and MSPs can get a white label dashboard to manage clients and resell under their brand.
托管服务商可以在自己的基础设施上自行托管API构建器。
Hosting providers can self host the API builder on their own infrastructure.
前往10web.io/lenny并使用代码LENNY获取专属免费额度,以及API或白标解决方案的30%折扣。
Check it out at 10web.iolennie and use code LENNY for exclusive free credits and 30% off API or white labeled solutions.
网址是10web.io/lenny。
That's the number 10, we b .io/lenny.
将 vibe 编程平台作为 API。
Vibe coding platform as an API.
本集由 Strela 赞助,Strela 是为 AI 时代打造的客户研究平台。
This episode is brought to you by Strela, the customer research platform built for the AI era.
关于用户研究,真相是这样的。
Here's the truth about user research.
它从未如此重要,也从未如此痛苦。
It's never been more important or more painful.
团队希望了解客户为何如此行事。
Teams wanna understand why customers do what they do.
但招募用户、进行访谈和分析洞察需要数周时间。
But recruiting users, running interviews, and analyzing insights takes weeks.
等到结果出来时,采取行动的时机已经错过。
By the time the results are in, the moment to act has passed.
Strela 改变了这一切。
Strela changes that.
这是首个利用人工智能自动进行并分析深度访谈的平台,为每个团队带来快速且持续的用户研究。
It's the first platform that uses AI to run and analyze in-depth interviews automatically, bringing fast and continuous user research to every team.
Strela 的 AI 主持人会提出真实的跟进问题,在回答模糊时深入探究,并在几小时内而非数周内,从数百场对话中提炼出模式。
Strela's AI moderator asks real follow-up questions, probing deeper when answers are vague, and surfaces patterns across hundreds of conversations all in a few hours, not weeks.
亚马逊和 Duolingo 等公司的产品、设计和研究团队已开始使用 Strela 进行 Figma 原型测试、概念验证和客户旅程研究,无需等待下一个迭代,即可在一夜之间获得洞察。
Product, design, and research teams at companies like Amazon and Duolingo are already using Strela for Figma prototype testing, concept validation, and customer journey research, getting insights overnight instead of waiting for the next sprint.
如果你的团队希望以你发布产品的速度了解客户,请试用 Strela。
If your team wants to understand customers at the speed you ship products, try Strela.
前往 strela.iolenny 开启你的下一项研究。
Run your next study at strela.iolenny.
那就是 strela.iolenny。
That's strella.iolenny.
杰森,非常感谢你来到这里,欢迎来到本播客。
Jason, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.
谢谢。
Thank you.
能来到这里我感到非常荣幸。
It's an honor to be here.
很高兴你能来。
It's an honor to have you here.
我早就想邀请你来这个播客了。
I have wanted to get you on this podcast for so long.
你不仅是一位杰出的构建者和创始人,还是一位非常出色的沟通者。
You are both an incredible builder and a founder, and you're such a great communicator.
你一直在smartbear.com上写作,我早就想了解这段背后的故事了。
You have been writing at smartbear.com, which I wanna get the backstory on for so long.
顺便问一下,你在那里写了多久了?
How long have you been writing there, by the way?
差不多二十年了。
Almost twenty years.
我开始写博客的时候, blogging 还很流行。
I started when blogging was cool.
我还在等博客重新变得流行起来,但还没到那时候。
And I'm still I'm waiting for blogging to come back and be cool again, but it's not yet.
我觉得博客挺酷的。
I think it is cool.
现在通讯简报很流行。
Newsletters are cool now.
是的。
Yeah.
通讯简报很流行。
Newsletters are cool.
好吧。
Okay.
我不知道你有没有注意到,Twitter 现在在鼓励长文写作。
I don't know if you saw Twitter now as encouraging long form writing.
它有个类似文章的功能。
There's, like, this articles feature.
所以我觉得这很酷。
So I think it's cool.
我觉得你挺过来了。
I think you've survived.
是的。
Yes.
没关系。
That's Okay.
我刚才也在和Gemini聊,想弄清楚你写了多少篇文章。
I was also talking to Gemini trying to figure out how many posts you've written.
我说,数一下smartbear.com上有多少篇博客文章。
Was like, count the number of blog posts on a smartbear.com.
你有没有大概感觉你在那里写了多少东西?
How many do you have a sense of how many things you've written on there?
是的。
Yeah.
没那么多。
It's not that many.
大概有一百篇左右,我觉得其中有大约一百五十到两百篇是我引以为傲的,总共可能有三百到三百五十篇。
It's something like maybe a 100 and well, I would say between a hundred and fifty and two hundred that I'm proud of and probably about 300, three fifty.
这些是在大约十八年里完成的。
And that's it over, you know, about eighteen years.
这是因为我只写深度长文。
And that's because I only write in-depth somewhere long.
不是所有文章都长,但也没有短的,我想。
Not all are long, but none are short, I guess.
我一直以来都有个原则,尽管人们说你应该经常写作,不只是为了算法,但在我刚起步的2000年代,他们总是说,哦,是的。
And I've always had a rule even though you're supposed to write really regularly and not just for algorithms, but they used to say, again, back in the aughts where I started, oh, yeah.
你需要非常规律地更新,这样读者才知道什么时候期待你的内容,并把它们融入自己的日常生活。
It needs to be, like, really regular so people know when to expect your thing, and they they plug it into their day and all this.
所以一直以来,人们都说你应该保持规律,但我从没做到,因为我的态度一直是:只有当我能拿出最好的作品时,我才会发布。
So it's always been true that you should be that that you should be regular, and I never was because my attitude was was always, I will only put out stuff if if it's the best that I can do.
好坏或是否有用,由读者来决定。
It's up to the reader to decide if it's good or useful.
如果我没有这种感觉,我就不会发布。
And if so if I don't have that, I'm just not gonna publish.
事情就是这么回事。
That's the way it is.
所以有些年份,我全年只发布一两次。
And so there's years where I publish once or twice only the whole year.
也许那段时间我太忙了,或者没精力。
Maybe I was busy or didn't have the energy.
其他年份,是的,我发了大约四十次左右。
Other years where, yeah, I posted, you know, 40 times or something.
但即便如此,那也只是因为我无法做到那种规模的事情。
But even then, it's only that because I can't I can't do something of that magnitude.
同时,我也在这段时间里发现了独角兽,并且运营了它们。
And also found unicorns, which I did during that same time and run them.
你知道的。
You know?
我没法同时做这些事情,还产出这么多。
I can't do that all at the same time, and produce a lot.
所以数量更少,但希望质量更好,当然,这取决于读者的看法。
So it's fewer and hopefully better, but that's in the eye of the reader, of course.
我喜欢你说‘我已经做了300次,不算多’的时候。
I like when you say, I've I've done 300, not too many.
但那可不是在十八年里都这样。
Well, not for eighteen years.
真的吗?
That right?
在这段时间里,你
Like, over that time, you
但我认为这正是我想说的,我觉得这也是我学到的一个非常重要的教训。
But I think this actually this is where I was gonna go, but I think this is a really important lesson I've also learned.
我过去总是告诉别人,在网上成功写作以及内容创作的关键是质量和一致性。
I always used to tell people the the key to being successful writing stuff online and just content in general is quality and consistency.
但我越来越意识到,实际上只有质量才重要,一致性并不重要。
But I've just more and more realized quality is actually the only thing that matters, and the consistency doesn't matter.
所以唯一的区别是,你写得越少,内容就必须越出色。
So the only difference is, like, the more rarely you write, the more awesome it has
才行。
to be.
这压力真大。
It is a lot of pressure.
我有这种感觉。
I feel that.
然后我会告诉自己,这种想法只会让你根本写不出任何东西,这可不好。
And then I tell myself, you that will just prevent you from writing anything, and that's not good.
所以,是的,你总是希望你创作的每一样东西都是你迄今为止最好的作品。
So, yeah, you tend to want everything you make to be the best thing you've ever made.
一方面,我想坚持这一点,因为它能激励我保持高水平,不让标准下滑。
And on the one hand, I wanna hold on to that because it it's motivation to be good and not to let the bar slip.
但另一方面,你可能会陷入瘫痪,这显然不好。
On the other hand, you you can go into paralysis, which is obviously bad.
所以,是的,我仍然在为此挣扎,但我认为这就是其中的张力。
So, yeah, I I still struggle with that, but I think that's that is the tension.
好的。
Okay.
你有大约300篇帖子,其中200篇你感到自豪,这为我们提供了很多方向。
So with 300 ish posts, 200 you're proud of, there are so many directions we can go.
我挑出了几篇,想花主要时间讨论它们。
There's a few that I've picked that I wanna spend most of our time on.
第一点是,你对增长停滞有着非常务实的应对方式。
The first is you have a really pragmatic way of approaching, growth stalling.
我想花时间探讨这一点,是因为很多产品团队和创业者都会做出一些产品,起初取得了一些成功,开始增长,但突然间就停滞了。
And the reason I want to spend time here is because a lot of product teams, lot of founders build something, it starts to show some success, it's going, it's growing, and all of sudden it just stops growing.
我认为这是最痛苦的经历之一,而且我从未找到过一种方法来思考如何解决这个问题,因为我觉得很多人都会想,好吧,看来这个行不通,我们换点别的吧。
And I think that's one of the most painful things to go through, and there's never, I've never come across a way to think about how do I solve this, because I think a lot of people are just like, okay, I guess that is not working, let's move on to something else.
你对这个问题有一套非常具体的方法。
You have a very specific way of approaching this problem.
我想读一段威尔·史密斯的话,自从我读到这句话后,它就一直印在我心里,因为它太真实了。
And I want to read actually a quote from Will Smith, and this is something that has stuck with me ever since I read it, because it's so true.
在他的自传中,他有这样一句话。
So in his biography, he has this line.
人们问他当名人是什么感觉?
People ask him what's it like to be famous?
他的回答是:变得出名很棒,但当名人则是一把双刃剑。
And his answer is, becoming famous is amazing, Being famous is a mixed bag.
失去名气则非常痛苦。
Losing fame is miserable.
这真有趣。
That's funny.
首先,我认为很多人现在正经历着这种情况。
So first of all, I think a lot of people are experiencing this right now.
有很多公司拥有不错的产品,但它们的增长已经放缓了。
You have a lot of companies that have reasonable products, and they've their their growth has slowed.
为什么?
Why?
可能是经济原因,因为实际情况并没有很多指标显示的那么好。
Could be the economy because it's not as good as a lot of indicators say.
我们都明白,比如,就业状况并没有指标显示的那么乐观。
We all know that, for example, jobs are not as good as the indicators say.
也可能是由于人工智能,或者对人工智能的威胁或期待,诸如此类的原因。
It could be because AI or the threat of AI or the expectation of the of AI, blah blah blah.
谁知道呢?
Who knows?
也可能只是因为规模问题。
Also can just be size.
当你变大时,增长会放缓,因为你知道,你不可能每年都翻两倍,所以它会慢下来。
As you get bigger, growth slows because, you know what, you're not gonna grow two x a year forever, so it slows.
有些纯粹是机械性的问题。
There's, like, just mechanical things.
所以增长放缓的原因有很多。
So there's many reasons why things slow.
有时候会突然发生,尽管那时可能有一些事件,比如算法变了,或者发生了什么别的事。
And sometimes it's all of a sudden, although then maybe there's some event like an algorithm changes or, you know, something happens.
但事实上,我认为更常见的情况是,它只是慢慢变慢。
But, actually, I think what's really common is it just slowly gets slower.
换句话说,它在减速。
In other words, it decelerates.
但我不太会说它悄然而至,因为大多数人一直在关注增长,所以它并不隐蔽。
But just it it it kinda I don't I wouldn't say sneaks up on you because most people are looking at growth all the time, so it's not sneaky.
但它确实是比较渐进的。
But it is it is sort of, a little bit more gradual.
对吧?
Right?
就像你感觉像是在泥里跑步一样。
Just like you just feel more like you're running through mud.
天哪。
Like, oh god.
我们仍然做了这么多工作,但产生的影响却没那么大了。
We're just still doing so much work, and it's not having as much of an impact.
所以,这就是我看到的情况。
And so, that's what I see.
当我这么说的时候,意思是,我创办了四家公司。
And when I say that's what I see, so I've built four companies.
最后一家公司是独角兽企业。
The last one is a unicorn.
再之前那家也是独角兽企业。
The one before that is also a unicorn.
他们的前端框架,上一个用的是 Bootstrap。
Their boot the the the previous one was Bootstrap.
这个是风险投资支持的,我投资过大约60家初创公司。
This one was VC funded, and I've invested in about 60 startups.
其中一些完全失败了。
Some of them failed completely.
一些非常成功。
Some of them were very successful.
一些处于中间状态,因为,当然,对吧?
Some of them middle because, of course right?
所以当我这么说时,这就是我所指的背景和含义。
And so when I say that's what I've seen, this that's the the context of what I mean by what I've seen.
所以,与其说是一份清单,不如说有一系列问题,我会用它们来诊断为什么这个项目的增长放缓了,因为这些因素中,如果第一个问题没解决,后面的问题再解决也没用。
So there's a there's, I wouldn't say a checklist, but there's a there's a series of of questions that I asked to to diagnose why is growth slowing in this order because it's one of these things where the first one that's a problem, if you don't fix that, it doesn't matter if you fix one of the ones below.
就像你有一个营销漏斗,某个环节彻底崩溃了,然后你却想:好吧,我只把底部稍微调整一下。
Just like if, I don't know, maybe if you had a marketing funnel and there's a step where everything falls apart, and you're like, well, I'll I'll just, tune the bottom of it a little.
这根本行不通。
It's like, that's not gonna work.
这不会带来足够的帮助。
It's not gonna help enough.
你必须先解决最关键的问题。
Like, you gotta you gotta go over the biggest issue.
所以这个问题是按这个顺序排列的。
So this is in that sort of order.
第一个问题是:我们的客户是否在流失,也就是客户流失率。
So the first question is, is our customers leaving, I e, logo churn.
对吧?
Right?
可以用MRR来计算流失率,但为了简单起见,我们先说客户流失。
Churn with m.
你也可以用MRR来计算流失率,但为了简单起见,我们就说客户流失。
You can do churn with MRR too, but just for simplicity, let's say, let's say with customers.
这是一个最糟糕的问题,原因有几点。
And it's the worst problem for a couple of reasons.
一是事情发生后你什么都做不了。
One is there's nothing you can do about it once it happens.
他们已经走了。
Like, they're gone.
无法挽回,也无法增加他们的收入。
There's no saving them, increasing their revenue.
未来你根本无能为力。
Like, there there's nothing in the future you can do.
而且,这常常与负面评价或其他社交媒体上的问题相关,这又是另一种阻碍增长的因素。
Also, it's often correlated with things like negative reviews or other things on social media, which is another kind of preventing growth.
所以这就像双重打击:他们不在了,还可能在 actively 伤害你的增长,真的很糟。
So it's kind of the two two, a two punch thing of, like, they're not here, and they may be, like, actively hurting your growth, so that sucks.
这个数据是无可否认的,我想谈谈这一点,因为这里有一个我特别喜欢的、不寻常但很多人觉得有用的指标。
The math is undeniable, which I wanna talk about because this is something where there's a metric I like that is unusual and, people find useful.
但在我说这个指标之前,还有一件让人直觉上难以接受的事,那就是客户说:这个产品,我不想要。
But before I get to the metric, there's also this kind of visceral thing, which is the customer's saying this product, I don't want it.
当我想到他们为了接触到这个产品所经历的种种困难时,他们到底是怎么发现我的呢?
And when I think about the gauntlet they got they went through to get to the product, they how do they even find out about me?
光是看到广告或听到消息就已经很难了,几乎不可能。
That was hard already and improbable that they see an ad or hear it.
然后他们还点击了,这同样不太可能。
And then they clicked, which is improbable.
接着他们没有直接从首页离开,这又是一次小概率事件。
And then they they didn't just bounce off the homepage, which is again improbable.
他们实际上心里想:哦,是的。
They actually were like, oh, yeah.
这听起来不错。
This sounds pretty good.
然后他们来到了定价页面,而这个页面并没有吓跑他们。
And then they got to the pricing page, and that didn't scare them off.
他们真的有预算,并且买了这个愚蠢的东西。
They actually had the budget and bought the stupid thing.
然后他们经历了入职流程,投入了时间等等。
Then they went through onboarding and invested their time, etcetera, etcetera.
这是一条极其艰难的关卡,几乎没人能走完。
That is a crazy gauntlet that almost no one gets through.
而在经历了这一切之后——这显然说明他们希望产品能成功——他们却说:不。
And after all of that, which clearly means they wanted it to work, they're like, no.
再见。
Bye.
什么?
What?
从情感层面来说,你必须停下来想一想:等等。
Like like, just on a just on an emotional level, you gotta go, Wait a minute.
这太糟糕了。
That's terrible.
我从根本上没有兑现我许下的承诺,或者他们认为我许下的承诺,不管这是产品问题还是沟通问题。
I'm I'm fundamentally not fulfilling whatever promise I made or they thought I made, which is whether that's a product issue or communication issue.
好的。
Okay.
他们说,虽然有各种原因,但无论如何,某种根本性的问题确实存在——作为一个产品人,我的目标是做出别人愿意购买和使用的产品。
They're like, there's lots of but one way or another, like, something is really fundamentally broken just in terms of, like, I'm a product person, so what I wanna do is make a product that other people wanna buy and use.
如果他们不买账,不管数据怎么说,我都觉得我们辜负了使命,辜负了客户,等等。
And if they don't, like, no matter what the metrics say, I'm, you know, I'm a I'm we're failing our mission, our customers, whatever.
所以,甚至就凭这种非数学层面的理由,都会让人惊呼:天啊。
So there's just even that nonmathematical reason to go, oh my god.
对吧?
Right?
所以,对我来说,这已经足够成为理由了。
So, so to me, that's already enough reason.
但数据本身也非常有意思。
But the the the math is very interesting.
我发现,当我跟人交谈时,尤其是在推特这类平台上,人们只是随意聊他们正在做的事,我会说一些像‘每月流失率超过3%简直太糟糕了’这样的话。
And what I find is when I talk to people, especially on Twitter or something where people are just, you know, yapping around whatever they're doing, you you say thing I say things like, you know, anything above 3% per month cancellation is is is terrible.
人们会说,哦,不会吧。
And people are like, oh, no.
没关系的。
It's okay.
5%没问题。
Five is fine.
7%、6%,人人都在谈论他们的情况,但这些都太抽象了。
Seven, six, everyone's yapping about what they and it's very abstract.
谁说4%就一定比5%差很多呢?
Like, who who is four much worse than five?
我不知道。
Like, I don't know.
我还听别人说啊说的。
And I heard someone else and blah blah blah.
所以这非常模糊、粗略,我不知道该怎么说。
So it's very, I don't know, like like, generic and rough.
所以我更喜欢用另一个指标,它基于我认为人们往往忽视的一个观点:流失率的增长速度超过营销增长。
So there's a different metric that I like to use, which is which which, which keys off of this idea that I think, again, people don't appreciate, which is cancellations grow faster than marketing.
因此,流失会压倒公司的增长,使其停滞不前,也就是说,增长会放缓,直到你根本无法再增长为止。
And so cancellations overpower the growth of the company and slow it to a halt, I e growth slows, right, to where you literally cannot grow anymore.
由于流失的存在,你的公司规模存在一个绝对的上限。
There's a maximum ceiling of how big you could ever be, thanks to cancellations.
当你清楚这个数字时,它会变得真实、直观,甚至令人恐惧。
And when you know what that number is, it's much more real and visceral and scary.
为了说明我刚才说的话,想象一下任何一家公司,假设你一夜之间将现有付费客户数量翻了三倍。
And so just to try to justify what I just said, just imagine any company and imagine you just tripled the number of customers that are there and paying.
同样是类型的客户,同样是年龄段的用户,只是数量翻了三倍,对吧?
And the same kind, the same age, you know, just the same kind of stuff just tripled, right, overnight.
那么下个月,营销能带来比上个月更多的新客户吗?
So the next month, would marketing deliver more new customers than a month before?
不。
No.
因为你的所有营销努力都不在乎你有多少客户。
Because marketing doesn't none of your marketing efforts care how many customers you have.
谷歌广告带来的潜在客户数量不变,SEO也是如此,这些营销手段根本不关心你规模有多大。
AdWords delivers the same number of leads and, you know, SEO delivers the same like, it it does not care how big you are, these these these efforts.
所以你仍然会和上个月一样以相同的速率增长。
So you're you're you're still gonna be growing at the same rate as you were the previous month.
但取消订阅的绝对数量会翻三倍,因为你有5%的取消率,而客户总数翻了三倍。
But cancellations in absolute terms, like the number of customers who leave, will triple because you have 5% cancellation and triple it.
好的。
Okay.
所以,三倍数量的5%仍然是三倍。
So still 5% of a tripled number is triple.
对吧?
Right?
所以重点是,即使你一切做得都对,流失率也会随着你的增长而自动上升,但营销不会。
Like so this is the point is that cancellations automatically grow as you grow even if you're doing everything right, but marketing doesn't.
营销的增长速度只取决于你能多快地改进营销。
Marketing grows only as fast as you can improve marketing.
我们都知道,这实际上相当困难。
We all know that's quite hard, actually.
它是线性的。
It's linear.
找到非琐碎的新渠道很难。
It's hard to find new channels that aren't trivial.
比如,这很难。
Like, it's hard.
当然,我们还是会去做,但这确实很难,而流失率会随着你的增长自动上升。
And, of course, we're gonna do it, but, like, it it's hard, whereas cancellations grow automatically as you grow.
对吧?
Right?
因此,由于这个原因,取消订阅的数量总会超过营销增长。
So cancellations always overtake marketing for this reason.
这里的比喻就像是一个漏水的桶,你是否能加足够的水来跟上漏水的速度?
Like, metaphor here is a leaky bucket where are you adding enough water to keep up with the leak essentially?
但不同的是,这些漏水点会自动增加,而这一点人们往往没有意识到。
Except the leaks automatically increase, and that's what people don't appreciate.
嗯。
Mhmm.
因为这是你整个客户基数的百分比。
Because it's a percentage of your entire customer base.
是的。
Yes.
所以在营销方面,我们常说,我每个月新增了100个潜在客户。
So we say when in marketing, we say things like, I'm adding a 100 leads a month.
但在取消订阅方面,我们却说5%。
But in cancellations, we say 5%.
你为什么说百分比?
Why'd you say percent?
因为这取决于你的规模,而且是指数增长的。
Because it's based on your size, and it's exponential.
5%就是指数增长的意思。
That's what 5% is an exponential.
所以你所能达到的最大规模是有限的。
And and so there's this maximum size you could ever be.
当流失率等于增长率时,就是那个临界点。
It's when churn equals growth.
对吧?
Right?
也就是说,你该怎么计算这个临界点呢?
Like, that's that's the so how would you compute that?
其实很简单,假设你每个月有5%的流失率。
It's actually quite simple because let's say you have this 5% per month.
我们先拿一个数字来举例。
Just let's take a number.
所以,新客户数量除以流失率就是结果。
So it's simply the amount of new customers you add divided by that cancellation rate.
这个数值就是上限。
That is the amount that that is the limit.
假设你每个月新增100名客户,流失率为5%。
So let's suppose you add a 100 customers a month and you have 5% cancellation.
所以100除以5%等于2000。
So a 100 divided by 5% is 2,000.
这样的公司客户数量永远不会超过2000人。
So a company like that will never have more than 2,000 customers.
顺便说一下,当你接近这个数字时,增长会变得非常缓慢,因为你虽然引入了一批新客户,但几乎同样多的客户流失了,所以增长在放缓。
And by the way, as you approach that number, growth is very slow because you bring in a bunch of customers and almost the same number leave, so growth is slowing.
是的。
Uh-huh.
看。
Look.
我们已经弄清楚了为什么所有SaaS公司的增长都会自动放缓。
We've diagnosed why growth slows automatically at all SaaS companies.
所以这就是为什么这是第一件事,因为它是一个非常严格的上限,意味着人们并不想要你的产品。
So that's why this is the first thing because it's so it's such a hard cap limit, and it means that people don't want your product.
比如,这是它最重要的两个原因。
Like, these are two reasons why it's the most important thing.
为了澄清一下,这是客户流失。
Just to clarify, this is logo churn.
这是指客户数量,而不是收入流失?
This is, like, number of customers, not revenue churn?
是的。
Yeah.
好吧,太好了。
Well Cool.
这既是客户流失率,也是收入流失率。
It is both logo churn and revenue churn.
做同样的计算。
Do the same math.
你可以说成是收入流入除以收入取消率,或者客户数量。
You could say dollars in divided by dollars cancellation rate or number of code.
我一直用客户数量来简化表达,因为当你看到它并说‘哇’的时候。
I've been saying number of customers just to keep it simple because I think when when you look at it and say, wow.
我们永远不会有超过2000个客户。
We will never have more than 2,000 customers.
这真的让人有种强烈的震撼感,天哪。
It's just such a, like, a, like, a visceral, oh my god.
我们得对此做点什么。
We gotta do something about that.
你知道的?
You know?
当然,你可以做的一件事是加大营销力度,但这一点你已经知道了。
Now, of course, one thing you could do is have more marketing, but you know that already.
如果增长放缓了,你已经在想:我如何从营销中获得更多的回报?
If growth is slowing, you're already thinking, how do I get more out of marketing?
你早就知道这一点。
You knew that.
关键是,客户流失是一个硬性限制,它在拉低你的数据,同时还带来其他许多糟糕的后果或副作用,这就是为什么它如此重要。
The point is that cancellation is this hard limit pulling you down with these other really bad either implications or side effects, which is why it's so important.
不错。
Cool.
当你提到营销时,为了澄清一下,这实际上包括了所有增长相关的工作,比如产品驱动增长(PLG)、营销和销售。
And when you say marketing, just to clarify, this includes basically all growth work, PLG stuff, marketing, sales.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
对。
Yeah.
PLG不错,但你仍然需要营销来最初吸引用户。
PLG is nice, but that doesn't you still need marketing to bring the people in in the first place.
PLG只是意味着除非你拓展或涉及其他细分市场,否则不需要销售人员。
PLG just means there's not a salesperson unless you're expanding or some other segment.
好的。
Cool.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像是吸引新客户的整个渠道。
It's like the whole bucket of just bringing new customers in.
对。
Yeah.
太棒了。
Awesome.
是的。
Yeah.
所以好吧。
So okay.
所以假设你同意,比如,我不喜欢客户流失。
So assuming you agree, like, yeah, I don't like customers leaving.
这很糟糕。
That sucks.
所以,显然,你想找出他们取消的原因并采取措施。
So, obviously, you wanna find out why they're canceling and do something about it.
而这里的根本问题是,他们不想告诉你。
And the the the kind of root issue here is they don't wanna tell you.
他们已经打算离开了。
Like, they're already out the door.
他们已经不再在心理上对你投入了。
They've already, like, stopped investing in you, like, mentally.
所以我最不想做的就是花时间陪你,或者认真思考并和你一起诊断原因。
So the last thing I wanna do is spend time with you or, like, really think about it and diagnose it with you.
关于这一点,我有个有趣的故事要分享。
And, I have a funny story about this for myself.
在SmartBear,人们会取消订阅。
So, at SmartBear, people would cancel.
我们设置了一个表单和一个下拉菜单。
We put up this form and and, a drop down list.
你知道的?
You know?
太贵了。
Too expensive.
项目结束了。
Project ended.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
你知道吧?
You know?
我们做了一些小事情来收集数据。
There's little stuff like we do so we could gather data.
其中有一个选项的选择比其他选项多。
And, one of them did have more, more selection than the than the rest.
我意识到它是列表中的第一个,于是我想到,会不会人们只是随便选第一个呢?
And I realized it was the first one on the list, and I thought, I wonder if people are just picking the first one.
于是我们把列表随机化了,让每个人看到的顺序都不同,结果现在所有选项都被平等选择了。
So then then we randomized the list so everyone saw a different order of the list, and now all the items were picked equally.
哦,是这样。
Like, oh.
对。
Right.
这完全是噪音。
It's complete noise.
我知道其他公司也做过类似的事情,结果都一样,这真是一个全球性的现象。
And, I know other companies have done similar things also with the similar results that this is this is a global phenomenon.
所以,好吧。
So okay.
那你该怎么办呢?
So what do you do?
关键是,这很难。
Like, point is it's hard.
对吧?
Right?
所以第一件事是,你要问开放式问题。
So the first thing is you wanna ask open ended questions.
我知道你只想得到一个列表,但这就是问题所在。
I I know it's want to just get a list, but this is the problem.
至少用开放式问题,我的意思是,大多数人可能不会回答,但至少你可能会得到一些他们自发生成的内容。
At least with open ended questions, I mean, most people won't answer, but at least you might be able to get some kind of thing that they generated.
当你这样做时,错误的做法是问‘你为什么取消?’
And when you do this, the the wrong way is to ask why did you cancel?
因为,再次强调,这会让对方给出一个非常简单的答案,比如预算,而这个答案可能真也可能不真。
Because, again, this allows them to say something really simple like budget, which may or may not be true.
我稍后会谈到这一点。
I'll get to that in a second.
你应该问的是:‘是什么让你决定取消?’
What you wanna do is say, what made you cancel?
换句话说,是产品、情况或任何其他因素导致了取消?
In other words, what about the product or situation or whatever caused the cancellation?
仅仅这样表达,你就能获得好得多的结果。
Just phrasing it that way, you get much better results.
这个方法是我从一家叫Groove的公司借鉴来的,他们在网上有一个关于此事的精彩案例研究。
And I stole this from a company called Groove who has this great case study online about this very thing.
他们发过一封邮件,是一封非常出色的邮件。
They had an email that they sent out, which is a very a great email.
他们一开始问的是:你为什么取消?
And and they started by asking why did you cancel.
他们只得到了10%的有用回复。
They got 10% usable responses.
他们把同样的邮件改成‘是什么让你取消的?’,有用回复就提升到了20%。
They changed it same email to why what made you cancel, and it's 20% usable responses.
所以,这似乎有一些数据表明这个做法是不错的。
So this is this is there's, like, I guess, maybe some anic data that this is a good idea.
但关键是,你真正希望他们思考的是产品本身,而不是随便找一个借口。
But the point is you really want them thinking about the product and not just coming up with an excuse.
接下来,当你有幸能和他们交谈几次时,你一定要尽可能深入地挖掘,因为大多数人根本不愿意开口。
The next thing is when you when you can the few times you do talk to them, so you wanna, like, go into, you know, delve as as far as you can into there because most people won't talk.
你很容易被他们最初给出的回答迷惑,然后就认为这就是答案了。
The temptation is to hear what they generate at first and say that's the answer.
一个非常常见的回答是:太贵了。
So, like, a really common one is it's too expensive.
我认为,任何看过任何公司取消数据的人都会同意,'太贵了'通常是首要原因,或者至少是前三名的原因之一,但这从来都不是真正的原因。
I think anyone who's looked at cancellation data at any company will agree that too expensive is often the number one or at least, like, top three reason in one form or another, and that is never ever ever the reason.
我怎么知道的?
How do I know?
因为他们已经看过你的主页,读过所有内容,了解了你的承诺,查看了定价页面,然后决定购买。
Because they already looked at your homepage, read all the stuff, saw what you promised, looked at the pricing page, and decided to buy it.
这意味着,他们心中对产品的认知并不觉得太贵。
That means it, whatever's in their mind of what it is, is not too expensive.
他们已经通过行动做出了决定。
It was they already decided with their actions.
那并不贵。
It was not too expensive.
发生了其他事情,比如你没有兑现他们认为你做出的承诺,或者别的地方出了问题。
Something else happened like, but you didn't fulfill the promise that at least they thought you made or something else didn't work.
或者你知道的?
Or you know?
现在他们可能预算减少了,但这并不意味着你的产品太贵。
Now it is possible they lost budget, but that doesn't mean you're too expensive.
这意味着他们的预算减少了。
That means they lost budget.
这是完全不同的原因。
That's a very different reason.
对吧?
Right?
这并不是说你太贵了,这有点像在医疗领域发生的情况。
That's not that you're so it's sort of like this happens in in health care, for example.
当有人去世时,医生必须写出所谓的直接死因,也就是他们究竟是怎么死的?
So when someone dies, a doctor has to write the what's called the proximate cause, which is what why did they actually die?
但你还要试着写下真正的原因。
But then you try to also write down the real reason.
比如说,有人来就诊,直接死因是呼吸停止。
So let's say someone comes in and they the the approximate cause of death is they stop breathing.
好吧,你可以就此打住,这就像是听到‘太贵了’就认为问题到此为止了。
Well, you could stop there, and that's like listening to It's Expensive and going, that's it.
那么,他们为什么会停止呼吸呢?
Well, why did they stop breathing?
因为他们开车撞上了电线杆,伤势严重,最终导致停止呼吸。
Because they they had they they ran their car into a telephone pole and were injured so much that eventually they stopped breathing.
他们为什么会开车撞上电线杆?
Why did they run their car into a telephone pole?
因为他们开车时晕过去了。
Because they passed out at the wheel.
他们为什么会开车时晕过去?
Why did they pass out at the wheel?
因为他们患有未被诊断出的糖尿病。
Because they had undiagnosed diabetes.
现在我们总算摸到关键了。
Now we're getting somewhere.
这仍然不是一个单一的根本原因。
It still isn't just one root cause.
另外,顺便说一句,我讨厌‘根本原因’这个概念。
Another as a sidebar, I hate the idea of a root cause.
复杂系统没有单一的根本原因。
Complex systems do not have one root cause.
它们通常有许多相互关联的因素,可以用来更早地发现、改变、减少问题,而不是只有一个根本原因。
They often have many interlocking things that could be done to detect earlier or to change it or to reduce or and not one root cause.
所以,对我而言,根本原因分析本身就是错误的。
So root cause analysis to me is, by the way, an incorrect thing.
我现在正在用医疗保健的例子解释为什么。
I'm explaining why right now with the health care.
对吧?
Right?
因为,那未被诊断的情况又怎么说呢?
Because well, what about the sign diagnosed?
也许问题的一部分在于我们的医疗系统缺乏预防性,另一部分也是如此,但他们根本就没去看医生。
Well, maybe part of the problem is we have a health care system that isn't preventative, and part of it is that, but they didn't go to the doctor anyway.
而且,你知道的,好吧。
And, you know, okay.
所以有很多事情可以做,来预防这种情况或让它变得更好。
So there's all kinds of things that could be useful and interesting to prevent this or make it better.
这才是重点。
That's the point.
分析应该关注这一系列因素,而不是单一的根源。
That's what an analysis should be, is this array of things, not the root cause.
无论如何,未被诊断出的糖尿病比呼吸停止更可能是主要原因。
Anyway, something along the lines of undiagnosed diabetes is much more of a cause than stopped breathing.
所以当我们说‘太贵了,这就是原因’时,你是在犯一个错误。
So when we say, it's too expensive and, that's the reason, you're making this fallacy.
你得深入去看,他们确实需要这些东西,但它们和他们使用的线性方法不匹配。
You gotta go into, well, they wanted this stuff, but it didn't work with linear, which is what they use.
它只在Jira上有效。
It only works with Jira.
因此,缺乏集成。
And so there's a lack of integration.
也许我们应该开发这个集成,也许不该。
Now maybe we should write that integration, maybe we shouldn't.
当然,这取决于我们听到多少关于它的消息。
Of course, it depends on how much we hear about it.
而且,你知道,当然还取决于其他因素,但这就是原因。
And, you know, of course, it's gonna depend on other things, but that's the reason.
不是因为它昂贵。
Not it is expensive.
对吧?
Right?
所以,这种想法是,甚至不深入根本原因,而是说‘次级原因’。
And so so this idea of, like, getting into not even the root cause, but let's say rooter causes.
根源。
The roots.
以及流程。
And the process.
是的。
Yeah.
它们更接近根源。
They're more root.
我想有些人可能会说五个为什么,然后用这个来敷衍我刚才说的内容。
I think some people probably say five whys and just paper over what I just said with that.
也许吧,但我只是想说,我们别对这个问题想得太简单了,因为五个为什么有时暗示着在层层追问的尽头存在一个根本原因。
Maybe so, but I just, know, you let's not be so simplistic about that because, again, five whys sometimes implies that there's some root cause at the bottom of the whys.
让我们更明智一点,别那么肤浅地看待这个问题。
Let let's be a little bit more let's be a little more smart about that.
所以,不管怎样,这些东西都太贵了。
So, anyway, these things too expensive.
这不是原因。
This is not it.
也许项目结束真的就是项目结束。
Maybe project ended really is project ended.
好的。
Okay.
但即使在那里,我今天在某个创业者论坛上看到,有人说了是的。
But even there, I see just today today on a on a on an entrepreneur forum on on I am on, someone said, yeah.
你知道,我们开始看到越来越多的人把项目结束作为原因,因此对此我们无能为力。
You know, we're starting to see more people have project ended as the reason, and so there's nothing we can do about that.
但你看,这是错误的。
Now see, that's incorrect.
只有当你只关注表面原因——也就是项目结束时,这才是对的。
That's only true if you only look at the proximate thing, which is project ended.
你没错,你确实无法阻止那个项目结束。
You're correct that you can't make that project not end exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
好吧。
Okay.
但等一下。
But wait a minute.
如果你的软件更成功,项目也更成功,它还会结束吗?还是说这实际上表明你的产品不够有用,没完成它的使命?
If your software was more successful and the project was more successful, would it have ended, or is that actually an indicator that your product wasn't that useful or didn't do its job?
有可能。
It's possible.
比如在这种情况下,谁知道呢?
Like, in this case, who knows?
对吧?
Right?
但确实有可能,这其实是你的责任。
But that's possible that it really is your fault.
另一个例子是,你选择了你要瞄准的目标细分市场。
Another example is, but you picked what target segments you were going after.
你有没有选择一个更容易销售的市场细分,比如小企业和消费者,而小企业经常倒闭,项目也就此结束等等。
Did you pick, like, a market segment that was easier to sell to, but their projects end like small business and consumers where very often the small business does go out of business where the project ends, etcetera.
因为当事情规模小时,它们的波动性很高,很多因素都可能让它们偏离轨道等等。
Because when things are small, they're they're, you know, have high variance and lots of things can knock them off the the path and so on.
那么,这是你选择错误的理想客户画像或目标市场造成的吗?
And so is it your fault for picking the wrong ideal customer profile or target segment?
所以,就这一个项目案例而言,严格来说,这并不是你的错。
And so, yes, that one case of that one project, that's not your fault, quote, unquote.
但如果你这么说,你就是在忽视这件事或许还有改进空间这一事实。
But by saying that you're you're you're just, like, ignoring the fact that there is maybe something to do about it.
不过,所有这些都只是可能而已。
Now all this is maybe.
这些都并不能证明你应该改变你的市场。
None of this proves you should, like, change your market.
对吧?
Right?
但当你声称我们对此无能为力时,你实际上是在关上那些可能正确的解决之道的大门。
But but the fact but when you say it's, there's nothing we can do about it, you are you are closing the door on these things that might be the right thing.
而且,正如我猜想,在座许多听者都清楚,你选择的市场细分与你的留存率密切相关,因为不同群体的行为方式截然不同。
And very often, as I think probably a lot of people here on this on this listening to this know, the market segment you pick has a lot to do with your retention rate because everyone acts differently.
对吧?
Right?
所以,总之,这个话题确实很复杂,但我总觉得人们常常犯这个错误:不承担责任,只听第一反应就认定那就是原因,这其实是不对的。
And so, anyway, so I I know it's it's a it's a lot on this topic, but I just feel constantly people make this particular mistake of not not getting you know, not you know, just, like, advocating responsibility or just listening to the first thing they they hear and saying that's the reason and and that's not right.
所以,倾听是关键。
So that's that's the big thing about listening.
另一点是,当客户遇到困难但尚未取消时,你必须主动询问。
Another thing is you gotta ask when people are in trouble but not yet canceled.
你或许还能挽救他们。
You might be able to save them.
你当然可以了解更多,因为你能和他们交流。
You certainly can learn more because you can talk to them.
他们还没有对你关闭大门。
Like, they're they're they're not shut off yet from you.
所以这可能是他们从未上传过数据,因此没有取得成功。
So this might be they never uploaded their data, so they're not being successful.
他们频繁联系技术支持。
They are calling tech support too much.
他们遇到麻烦了。
They're in trouble.
他们联系技术支持的次数太少。
They're not calling tech support enough.
他们缺乏参与感。
They they they're they're not engaged.
他们有一段时间没有登录了。
They didn't log in for a while.
比如,有很多情况,当然,这些细节会因产品而异,但确实存在一些与取消相关的信号。
Like, there's all kinds of things where where now, of course, this is all gonna the details are gonna depend on the product, obviously, but there are signals that are correlated with cancellation.
如果你有大量的数据,你可以直接将这些信号与取消行为关联起来,并尝试精确地提取出来。
Now if you have a lot of data, you can literally correlate signals with cancellation and try to extract that, you know you know, precisely.
但即使没有数据,你也可以进行推测。
But even without data, you can guess.
通过推测并形成理论,然后据此采取行动。
And guessing and having a theory acting accordingly.
随着你获得越来越多的数据,不断调整你的理论,这是一种即使在没有数据的情况下也明智的做法。
And as you get more data adjusting your theory, this is a this is a wise way to proceed even without data.
所以,如果你能在他们偏离正常体验路径、陷入困境时及时发现,那就是采取行动的最佳时机。
So if you can catch them when they seem like they're off the happy path, they're in trouble, like, that's that's a better time to do it.
关于这种检测,我最后想说的是,如果你不知道该做什么,或者在其他条件都相同的情况下,那就重点关注用户引导环节。
And then the last thing I would say about about about this detection is if you don't know what to do or all else being equal, then focus on onboarding.
几乎所有公司在用户注册后的第一天、前三十天或前九十天(具体视情况而定)都会出现大量流失。
All almost all companies have a whole lot more cancellation in the first day, thirty days, ninety days, depends.
对吧?
Right?
但第一个阶段比客户整个生命周期的其余部分都重要。
But the first period than the whole rest of the customer's life.
而且,小的注册流程改动可能会对取消率产生巨大影响,而后期就不一定了。
And, also, small changes in the onboarding can have large effects on cancellation, whereas later on, that's not necessarily true.
可能是这样,但不一定成立。
It could be, but it's not necessarily true.
所以,一个非常极端的例子是,如果你做过YouTube视频——我知道你做过,但如果有听众做过,你就会看到观众的留存率,也就是视频观看的留存曲线,它在最初的三十秒内会急剧下降,简直让人难以置信。
So, a really dramatic version of this is if you've ever done YouTube videos, which I know, I mean, I know you have, but if if a listener has ever done YouTube video and you see the retention, quote, unquote, of the of the viewer in a YouTube video, it has this thing where it it falls, like, just so much you can't believe in the first thirty seconds.
如果视频质量不错,之后留存率就会趋于平稳,因为观众已经决定继续看下去了。
And then if if it's a decent video, it'll flatten out as people, you know, decide to watch the video.
所以在这种看起来很陡峭的曲线中,对于那些已经看了十五分钟的人,你或许能做点什么来让他们坚持到结尾,但这对最终有多少人看完的影响不会很大。
So in that in that crazy looking curve, for the people that have watched it for fifteen minutes, maybe there's something you could do to keep a few of them staying to the end, but that's not gonna change very much how many people get to the end.
而对我来说,虽然我只做过几个视频,但我看到的情况是,大约50%的观众在前三十秒就离开了。
Whereas, like, for me, I've only done a few, but I what what I see is about 50% fall off in the first thirty seconds.
如果我能把留存率从50%提升到55%,虽然最后只剩下20%的人坚持到底,但对于一段较长的视频来说,这已经很不错了。
Well, if I can get that from 50% to 55% stay, that's an additional and and at the end of of the line, I only have 20% still there, which is pretty good for a long longer video.
但如果我能把初始留存率从50%提升到55%,最终坚持到底的人数可能就会从20%增加到25%。
But if I get it from 50 to 55, I might get it go from 20 to 25% staying.
换句话说,如果我在前端能把流失率降低10%——也许我做不到大幅改善,但稍微提升一点,最终的留存率就可能增加30%。
In other words, if I shift to 10% at the front, which maybe I could do, like, I can't be dramatic, but maybe a little, then in the output, I might be able to increase it by 30%.
所以这是一个巨大的改变。
So that's a huge change.
在SaaS领域,正如我们都知道的,如果用户早早离开,不仅不好,而且极其不盈利,因为你花了大量成本获取他们,但他们却没坚持到足够长的时间来回报你的投入,更别提盈利了。
And so in the SaaS equivalent is, as we all know, if they leave early, not only is it bad, but it's super unprofitable because you spent all this money to acquire them, and then they never stayed around long enough to pay it back, much less to be profitable.
所以,如果你能在注册流程中稍作优化,或者略微提升注册转化率,长期来看,这将极大地提升收入和利润,因为你帮助用户取得了成功。
So if you can do a little bit in the onboarding or shift the onboarding percentage a little bit, it pays off enormously in revenue and profit over time by by, by making them successful.
因此,如果你不知道该从哪里入手,注册流程是个不错的切入点。
And, so, again, if you don't know what to do, onboarding is is a good bet.
即使你已经知道该做什么,我仍然会赌注册流程是最值得投入的方向。
And even if you do know what to do, I'll I'll still bet that onboarding is a good bet for where to go.
天哪。
Oh, man.
我很高兴我们花了这么多时间讨论LogoChurn这个非常具体的初始步骤,因为你描述得如此生动。
I'm so happy we're spending so much time on this very specific first step of LogoChurn because the way you described it is so visceral.
你付出了太多努力。
You've spent it took so much.
这个客户已经走到了这么远,简直难以置信。
It's like impossible how far this customer got already.
他们已经在使用你的产品了。
Like, they are using your product.
是的。
Yeah.
他们基本理解了产品,却还是决定离开,真是太残酷了。
They understand it mostly, and then they still decide to leave so brutal
当他们说离开是因为价格时,你真的会相信吗?
the way You're gonna believe them when they say it's because of the cost?
对吧?
Right?
这么一说,根本说不通。
Like, it just doesn't even make sense when you put it that way.
对吧?
Right?
让我来总结一下你分享的建议,因为这太棒了。
So let me let me kind of summarize the advice you shared here because this is so good.
第一步是查看客户流失情况。
So step one is look at logo churn.
要理解这个问题有多严重,以及为什么你需要在这里花时间,就要看这个, basically 做个计算。
The way to understand and essentially to understand how big of a problem this is and why you need to spend time here is look at this, basically do the math.
你新获得的客户数量除以取消率是多少。
What's how many new customers you're getting divided by the cancellation rate.
这基本上能告诉你,如果这个比例不变,你最终最多能拥有多少客户?
And that essentially tells you what's like, if that doesn't change, what's the maximum number of customers you will ever have?
没错。
Exactly.
那会是一个令人沮丧的数字。
That's gonna be a sad number.
然后问题是,好吧。
And then the question is, okay.
好的。
Cool.
我该如何降低取消率?
How do I reduce the cancellation rate?
当然,如你所说,每个人都想要更多新客户。
Obviously, as you said, everyone wants new customers, more new customers.
是的。
Yeah.
而且你知道,你本来就会这么做,但你有一个上限。
And you'll I know you're gonna do that anyway, but you got this cap.
没错。
Exactly.
好的。
Okay.
所以你刚才分享的几点内容。
So the way so a few things you've shared here.
一是,你没有让用户从多个选项中选择取消原因,而是采用了自由填写的方式。
One is instead of asking people an option multiple choice, why did you decide to cancel?
你把问题改成:‘你是怎么想的?’
You make it free form, and you make the question how would you just say it?
是什么让你决定取消?
Was it what made you What made you cancel.
是什么让你决定取消?
What made you cancel?
是的。
Yeah.
很好。
Great.
对。
Yeah.
然后你可以利用人工智能来帮助总结这些内容,我想,而不是
And then you could use AI to help summarize these things, I imagine, instead of
对。
Yeah.
我觉得在AI处理这类调查问题时,是这样的。
I think what I find with AI is this with this sort of thing, with surveys Yeah.
就是这个。
Is this.
AI擅长提取主题。
AI is good at picking out themes.
对。
Yeah.
它在识别可操作的细节方面表现不佳。
It is bad at picking out details that are actionable.
当
When
我说AI时,当然指的是大语言模型,这大概也是我们在处理自然语言时所指的意思。
I say AI, of course, I mean LLMs, which is probably what we mean when we when we're looking at natural language.
对吧?
Right?
如果你仔细想想,这其实很合理,因为大语言模型本质上是一个平均化机器。
And if you think about it, it sort of makes sense because the LLM is an averaging machine.
对吧?
Right?
它预测的是最有可能出现的结果,这本质上是一种平均化的机制。
It's predicting the most likely that's an averaging kind of a thing.
因此,当你需要的是某种平均结果时,它通常表现得相当不错。
And so when what you're looking for is a kind of average, it's usually pretty good.
所以是摘要、主题和核心思想。
So summarization, topics, themes.
但当你想知道什么是有趣而非普通的时,它在这方面其实很糟糕。
But when you're asking for, like, what is interesting and not average, it's actually pretty bad at it.
我找到的一个有点用的方法是:是的,我会先问它关于主题的问题,然后我会说,现在把每个属于这些主题的具体细节都挑出来。
One, one way that I found that's sort of useful is, yes, I'll ask it about themes, but then I'll say, now pick out every specific detail that goes under one of these themes.
把它们和谁说的、相关链接等信息放在一起,诸如此类。
Put it along with, like, which customer said it and the link to know, blah blah blah.
所以你得不断尝试,调整它。
So you have to, you know, play with this to tune it.
对吧?
Right?
但像这样的方式,能让人类仍然看到那些细节,而正是这些细节能触发你的灵感。
But, like, that kind of thing so that a human being can then still see the detail, which is what triggers in your mind.
等等。
Wait a minute.
但这意味着我们应该这么做。
But that means we should do that.
对吧?
Right?
因为主题不会做到这一点。
Because the topics won't do that.
主题只会是我已经知道的内容。
The topics will be I already know what the topics will be.
它会是类似‘不知道怎么完成这个集成’这样的内容。
It'll be stuff like, couldn't figure out how to do this, this integration.
对吧?
Right?
这些主题实际上可能并不会让人感到惊讶。
Like, the the the the topics are actually not going to be that surprising probably.
真正能触发行动、可操作的内容或模式的,是这些细节。
It's the details that are gonna be the triggers for action actionable stuff or patterns or something like that.
所以,是的,AI并不是没用的,但也没听起来那么有用。
So, yeah, AI is not useless, but it's not as useful as it sounds.
不过,还是最好把所有这些内容都读一遍。
It's probably still a good idea to just read all this stuff.
尽管AI可能能帮忙整理一下,你知道,很多人语法都不太好。
Although AI might be able to clean up, you know, may people's grammar's bad.
这是一种奇怪的语言。
It's a weird language.
好的。
Okay.
是的。
Yes.
他们会觉得,这真烦人。
They're like, that's annoying.
你可以把这些地方整理得更清楚些。
You could clean that up.
但出于这个原因,我不会依赖AI来替我思考。
But I wouldn't rely on AI to do the thinking for that reason.
这真是非常好的建议。
That's such such good advice.
实际上,我很快会发布一篇非常棒的客座文章,里面提供了一系列具体的技术,帮助避免AI产生幻觉或在这些特定的综合工作中给出糟糕的结果。
Actually, I have a really cool guest post coming out soon that gives a bunch of really specific techniques to avoid AI hallucinating or just giving you really bad results from this very specific synthesis work.
因为事实证明,AI在诚实面对某些问题上其实很不靠谱。
Because it turns out AI is very not great at actually being honest about some of the stuff.
如果这篇文章在本节目播出前发布,我们会附上链接。
That's we'll link to it if it comes out before this.
而且我觉得在现实生活中,除非是超级消费类应用,否则大多数人遇到的这类取消量并不高。
And like I think in real life, most people don't have that much, the volume of these cancellations, unless it's like a super consumer app, is not that high.
所以你根本不需要AI来做这件事,只需亲自阅读,然后这就引出了你的下一条建议——本质上是‘五个为什么’,但又不是传统的‘五个为什么’,你需要强迫自己深入挖掘用户取消的真实原因,可能不是价格问题,也不是项目结束了,背后一定有更深层的原因。
So you don't even need AI for this, just like read it, and then this is like, it's like way to your next piece of advice, which is essentially the five whys but not the five whys, where you kind of force yourself to dig into what's the real reason that forced them to cancel, it's probably not pricing, it's probably not the project ended, there's something deeper.
而且
And
第三条建议是尽早抓住用户,趁他们流失前介入。
then advice number three is try to catch people early, Try to catch them before they churn.
如果你的客户不多,这会容易很多。
If you don't have a lot of customers, it's lot easier.
如果你的客户很多,那显然就更难了。
If you have a lot, it's obviously harder.
一直有个所谓的‘圣杯’想法,就是开发一个产品,能监控指标并告诉你某个用户即将取消订阅。
There's always been this, like, holy grail idea of a product that just, like, watches metrics and tells you this person is going to cancel.
我还没见过这样的产品。
I haven't seen that.
我认为这其实并不难。
What I would say is it's it it is it is not hard.
你不需要很多客户,就能去和那些遇到问题的用户聊聊。
You don't need a lot of customers into to go talk to the ones who are in trouble.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你需要大量数据或客户,才能从数学上确定哪些行为与取消服务相关,从而明智地分配你的精力,这时你就需要更多数据。
You do need a lot of data or customers to mathematically know what behaviors are correlated with cancel and therefore to spend your time wisely, then you need a lot more data.
但正如你所说,即使你拥有这些数据,也不清楚某种机制性的东西是否真的那么重要。
But to your point, even if you have the data, it's not entirely clear whether some kind of mechanistic thing is all that important.
我看待这个问题的一种方式是,这其实是非常常见的建议。
One way I look at it is, you know, it's it's very common advice.
你应该争取更多优质客户,减少劣质客户。
You should try to get more good customers and fewer bad customers.
当然,你应该这么做。
Of course, you should.
因此,他们说,你应该找出优质客户的共同点。
And so, therefore, it they say, you should see what the good customers have in common.
但这句话还没说完,因为优质客户的很多共同点,劣质客户也具备,因为这些只是你的客户普遍会做的事情。
But that's not the end of the sentence because a lot of the things that good customers have in common, they also have in common with the bad customers because it's just what your customers do.
这不过是每个人都会做的事。
It's just what anybody does.
所以关键是找出好客户和差客户之间的不同之处。
So it's what the good customers have in common that are different from what the bad customers have in common.
好的。
Okay.
因此,从这个角度来看,必须同时考虑这两方面,否则你只是得到了一些无用的相关性。
So with that in mind, this kind of like it has to be both or else you're you're sort of not getting you're just getting correlations that are that are not helpful.
取消行为,或者与遇到困难的客户交谈,是这一思路的另一种应用。
The cancellations or or or talking to people who are in trouble is is another application of that.
那么,哪些因素与最终选择取消的客户相关,而不仅仅是你知道的那些?
So what is correlated with people who actually end up canceling, not just what know?
所以,我认为如果加上另一面,这种思维方式是正确的。
And so, I think that mindset is is correct if if you add the other side of that to it.
非常重要的细微差别。
Really important nuance.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
然后最后一步,为了总结一下,是用户引导。
And then the final step just to close this out is onboarding.
专注于用户引导和激活。
Work on onboarding activation.
是的。
Yeah.
这个播客中反复出现的一个主题就是,在每一个维度上改进用户引导和激活都有巨大的力量。
Something that's one of the most recurring themes on this podcast is just the power across every dimension of improving onboarding, improving activation.
没错。
Yep.
太棒了。
Sweet.
好的。
Okay.
所以这只是第一步,如果你的增长已经放缓,这一步就已经充满价值了。
So this is just step one, which is already full of gold if your growth has slowed.
所以第一步是关注你的客户流失率,即有多少客户离开、取消你的产品。
So step one is focus on are your logo churn, the number of customers leaving, people leaving, actually canceling your your product.
所以我基本上是从一个问题的角度来看待它。
So I I kinda look at it question.
所以第一个问题是,客户流失得太多了吗?
So, like, the first question is, are are people leaving too much?
因为如果你的中小企业月流失率是2%,那已经不错了。
Because if your if your monthly cancellation is 2% for SMB, that's good.
所以你可以尝试去改善,但既然已经不错了,继续优化可能仍然是个好主意。
So you could try to work on it, but since it's already good, it's still probably a good idea to work.
对你来说,投入这方面的回报率可能仍然不错,但你也可能面临收益递减,这未必是真正的原因,或者也不太可能再进一步降低。
It's it's probably a good ROI for you to work on it, but it's possible that you're got diminishing returns and that this isn't really the reason or it's not really reasonable for it to go.
我的意思是,中小企业的流失率能低到什么程度?
I mean, how low can it go for SMB?
就像有个底线,你可能已经接近它了。
Like, there's some floor and you might be near it.
所以第一个问题是,流失率是不是太高了?要设定一个阈值,低于人们通常愿意接受的水平。
So the first question is, like, is is logo churn too high and trying to set a threshold that, you know, lower than what people normally wanna do.
接下来我要问的是定价是否合理,当然,定价这个话题一直都很有趣,我知道。
So the next the next question I have is is the pricing correct, which, of course, pricing is a perennially interesting topic, I know.
有一个有趣的现象,尤其是对于新公司,定价通常都太低了。
There's this funny thing of, especially with newer companies that the pricing is always too low.
并不总是这样,但这是常见的情况。
It's not always, but, like, that's the common thing.
帕特里克·坎贝尔掌握了4200个初创公司的数据点,你好好想想。
Patrick Campbell who has 4,200 data points about startups, Let that sink in a little.
他有一句很棒的名言,大概是这样的。
Has this great quote, which goes like this.
你的定价太低了,因为你只是随便猜的,而且从来没改过。
Your prices are way too low because you just guessed and you haven't changed them.
就像,如果你真的深入去看,你会发现,要么我们只是照搬了竞争对手的做法,就这样了,要么我们因为某些原因加了点或减了点,这 probably 不太好。
It's like, yeah, if you really, like, look look deep within, you realize, like, yeah, or we just picked whatever our competitors are doing and and and that's it, or we added or subtracted something because reasons and That's probably not good.
人们因为显而易见的原因不敢定价,但如果我们抛开情绪因素——不管它们对不对——人们通常给出的经济理由是,他们脑子里有个微观经济学的供需曲线模型。
And people are scared to rate prices for obvious reasons, but the but the if we set aside the emotional reasons, whether they're correct or not, the the sort of economic reason people normally give is they have in their mind this eek this microeconomic supply and demand curve thing.
需求曲线表明,如果你提价,需求就会下降。
And the demand curve says that if you raise the price, demand goes down.
这就是为什么主曲线总是朝那个方向走的原因。
That's why the main curve is always going that way.
对吧?
Right?
所以他们理解。
And so they understand.
我觉得每个人都懂。
I think everyone understands.
对。
Right.
但也许你把价格提高了10%,而注册用户只减少了5%。
But maybe you raise prices by 10%, but sign ups go down only 5%.
所以总体来看,这样更好。
So overall, it's better.
但相反的情况也可能发生,如果我处在需求曲线的另一侧,好吧。
But the opposite could happen too if I'm on the other side of the demand curve and okay.
所以这就是大多数人对它的理解。
So that's that's how most people think of it.
然而,实际情况并非如此。
However, this is not how it works.
这正是微观经济学入门教材中描述的方式。
So that's how it works in micro microeconomics one zero one textbooks.
但在现实世界中,这往往并不成立。
That's not how it works in the real world often.
所以通常发生的情况是,你提价了,但注册用户数量却没有变化。
So what usually what often happens is you raise prices and sign ups don't change.
当我说到注册量时,我的意思是每月的注册数量,你知道的,就是注册率上升了。
When I say sign ups, I mean, they're, like, sign ups per month, you know, the rate sign, or sign ups go up.
这种情况经常发生。
This happens all the time.
甚至对于像在Twitter上做些奇怪项目的独立创业者来说,这种情况也屡见不鲜。
Even even for, like, solopreneurs on Twitter who have, you know, strange projects or everything, happens all the time.
他们提高了价格。
They raise prices.
他们说:'我本来很害怕,但结果注册量反而上升了。'
They're like, I was scared, but then then sinus went up.
我曾经跟一个家伙聊过。
I once talked to a guy.
这真的特别有趣。
This is this is really funny.
我不会说出他的名字,以免泄露他的身份。
I'm I'm not I'm gonna not say the name to protect the protect the name.
对吧?
Right?
但他卖的产品主要是面向企业与政府机构,也就是大公司。
But but, but, so he had a product that that he was selling essentially to enterprise and government, so larger companies.
在我看来,价格太低了。
And it was, to me, way too cheap.
所以他这么说:是的。
So he said something like, yeah.
我收300美元。
I charge $300.
每月300美元?
Like, $300 a month?
这远远不够。
That's not enough.
他说:不是的。
He goes, no.
每年。
Per year.
他们说,好吧。
They're like, okay.
等等。
Wait.
我说,好吧。
I said, okay.
你能不能告诉我,你们每周有多少注册用户?
Just do me a like, how many sign ups do you get a week?
他说,一两个吧,因为这是企业级市场,而且是个初创公司。
And he's like, one or two because this is enterprise, and it was a start up.
我说,好吧。
I said, okay.
为了好玩,你把定价从按月改回按年试试。
Just for fun, just change it from per month per year to per month.
换句话说,我们把价格提高了12倍。
So in other words, we're 12 x ing the price.
对吧?
Right?
所以他照做了,但每周还是只有一两个客户。
So he did, and he still got one or two per week.
就像什么都没变一样。
Like, nothing changed.
我说,好吧。
I'm like, okay.
那你接下来打算怎么做?
What what are you gonna do next?
他回答,天哪。
And he goes, oh my gosh.
现在我的利润多了很多。
Well, now I have so much more money in profits.
我打算雇一个工程师。
I'm gonna, like, hire an engineer.
我要做这个市场营销。
I'm gonna do this marketing.
我说,等等。
And I'm like, time out.
你要做的就是再次提价。
What you're gonna do is raise prices again.
你刚告诉我你把价格提高了12倍,但没有任何明显的变化。
Like, you just told me you you 12 x the price and nothing observable changed.
这意味着你还没到价格的极限。
That means you're not near the price yet.
对吧?
Right?
你不一定非得再提高10倍。
You're gonna you don't have to 10 x it again necessarily.
也许涨两倍,或者涨50%,但你还没做完。
Maybe two x, maybe 50%, but, like, you're not done.
我的意思是,你当然也可以做那些其他事情,但关于价格的事还没完。
I mean, you can do those other things too, but you're not done with the price.
他们甚至根本没想过这一点。
Like, it didn't even occur to them still.
好吧。
Okay.
那为什么会这样呢?
So why does this happen?
原因是定价在选择市场。
The reason is that pricing selects the market.
所以,如果你只把市场看作是预算非常有限、几乎做不了什么、也得不到多少价值的人群,那么确实,如果你提价,你会失去一部分这样的客户。
So if you only think of the market as people with very limited budgets, barely can do anything, not getting much value out of it, then it is true that if you raise prices, you'll get fewer of them.
因为他们本来就没从产品中获得多少价值。
Because they were never getting that much value out of it anyway.
他们没那么多钱。
They don't have that much money.
所以如果你提价,他们就走了。
So if you raise prices, they're gone.
但想想一家中等规模的公司吧。
But think about just even a midsize company.
别提大企业了。
Forget about enterprise.
就想想一家有一千名员工、年收入四亿美元左右的公司。
Just think about a company with a thousand employees and 400,000,000 in revenue or whatever.
如果他们看到一款每月两美元、甚至每月一百美元的产品,他们的想法是:这肯定不够好。
And, if they see a product that's, you know, $2 a month or even a $100 a month, Their thought is like, that can't be good enough.
他们还不够成熟。
They're not mature enough.
这解决不了太多问题。
It's not gonna do enough.
支持服务也不会够好。
The support's not gonna be good enough.
他们可能没有良好的治理政策,或者其他我们需要的东西,你知道的,诸如此类。
They probably don't have good governance policies or other things that we need, you know, etcetera.
不管是不是真的,反正看起来就是这样,因为这是低质量、廉价的,面向中小企业的。
Whether that's true or not, like, this is what it looks like because it's low quality, cheap, whatever, aimed at SMB.
所以他们就是不会购买。
So they just won't buy.
他们根本不在考虑这个产品的需求范围内。
They're not in the market for the thing.
所以,说他们有一个需求曲线,觉得因为便宜就都会想要,这是不对的。
So it's not true that they have this demand curve where, oh, since it's cheap, they all want it.
那是微观经济学曲线的说法。
That's what that's what micro economics curve says.
因为它太便宜了,所以他们都应该想要。
It's so cheap that they should all want it.
不。
No.
他们不会。
They don't.
他们都不想要,因为看起来很糟糕。
None of them want it because it looks bad.
所以当价格进入符合他们需求的范围时,他们的需求实际上会上升。
So as it gets into a price range that makes sense for the kinds of things that they need, then their demand actually goes up.
在合适的价位区间内,需求可以保持高位。
Then it can stay up while it's in a good range.
当然,到了某个时候,价格就超出了他们的承受范围。
And then, of course, at some point, you are priced out of them.
这类公司会说:看。
That that particular kind of company is like, look.
我不会每年花1000万美元在它上面。
I'm not gonna spend $10,000,000 a year on it.
你在开玩笑吧?
Are you kidding?
所以,是的,它确实会下降并消失。
So, yes, it does slope down and go away.
所以它不是一个正常的曲线,而是先上升,然后保持一段时间,再下降。
So it's not a normal curve, but it is like it slopes up and then it's something and slopes down.
谁知道它到底是什么形状?
Who knows exactly what it looks what what shape it is?
恐怕我们都没人知道。
Probably none of us know.
但它更像一个平顶山,而不是教科书里那种直线上升再下降的线。
But it's more like a mesa and not a line that goes up to down like we like in the textbook.
对于这个市场来说,只有最低端——你甚至可以说在指标上最差的那部分——才受到你所担心的宏观经济趋势影响。
For that market, it's only the very lowest, you might even say worst in terms of metrics, end of the market that has the macroeconomic slope that you're worried about.
所以当你提价时,你就进入了另一个市场,这就是为什么注册量会上升或保持稳定的原因。
So what happens is you raise prices and you enter a different market, and that's why the signups go up or okay.
无论如何,你留下的是一个更差的市场。
You leave behind perhaps a worse market anyway.
当然,每个人都会告诉你,他们付得越多,留存率就越高。
And, of course, everyone will tell you, you know, the more they pay, the higher retention is.
而且,你知道,当你收费更高时,所有那些方面都会变得更好。
And then, you know, like, all the all the kinds of stuff goes better when you when you, when you charge more.
所以这个问题是定价是否正确。
So this question is pricing correct.
当我问这个问题时,这就是我脑海中的想法。
This is kind of what what's in my mind when I ask that question.
因为答案很可能是否定的,因为定价非常困难。
It's like because probably the answer is no because pricing is very hard.
定价既是一门艺术,也是一门科学。
It's just as much art as it is science.
你之前请过一些在定价方面非常出色的人来分享。
You've had some really good people on here on pricing.
事实上,好到我都买了那些人提到的书,因为我太喜欢这些访谈了。
In fact, so good that I bought some of the books that those people have talked about because I I love the interview so much.
对吧?
Right?
所以,我真的相信这些观点。
So so, like, so I I believe in all that.
没有问题,没问题。
No pro no problem.
我相信这一点。
I believe in it.
然而,他们也说,定价既是艺术也是科学,非常难掌握,而且一旦你确定了定价,世界就会发生变化。
Nevertheless, they also say it's art and science, and it's it's it's very difficult to, and and also once you auger it in, the world changes.
比如,五到十年后,市场就不同了。
Like, five, ten years later, the market is different.
世界变了,所以定价依然不明确。
The world's different, and so it's still it's still unclear.
此外,价格不仅仅是网页上显示的数字。
Also, price is not just the number on the web page.
很容易这么认为。
It's easy to think that.
对吧?
Right?
但它的结构同样重要。
But how it's structured is just as important.
产品的定位也同样重要。
How the product's positioned is just as important.
比如,我以前写过的一个例子,这个案例实际上发生在我生活中,但我修改了故事,让它变得简单、真实、清晰,而无需涉及太多细节。
So for example, the the this example I've written about before, online is, this example, it actually was something that, that I that happened in my life, but I I changed the story to make it, like, simple and and and real and clear without having to get into lots of detail.
所以,这个故事版本是:这家公司在仅仅通过不同方式描述产品的情况下,将同一产品的价格提高了八倍。
So the the the sort of story version is, how this company was able to charge eight times as much for the same product just by talking about it differently.
仅仅通过不同的定位,价格就提高了八倍。
So just by positioning it differently, eight times as much.
再说一遍,这事发生在我身上,但太复杂了。
Again, this happened to me, but it's it's too complicated.
那些细节并不有趣,不值得关心。
It's not not interest those details are not interesting.
所以假设有一家公司叫Double Down,它的理念是通过提高效率将你的AdWords成本减半。
So say there's this company called Double Down, and the idea is that it halves the cost of your AdWords because it makes it so efficient.
这就是网页上所写的。
So that's what it says on the web page.
将你的AdWords成本减半,这是一个非常棒的卖点。
Cut your AdWords cost in half, which is a very good pitch.
对吧?
Isn't it?
简单明了,明显有价值。
Simple, obviously valuable.
但当你想象一下,假设我是一个客户,每月在AdWords上花费4万美元。
But when you think so let's suppose, I've I'm a customer, and I spend $40,000 a month on AdWords.
我愿意为Double Down支付多少钱?
What am I willing to pay for Double Down?
如果你真的把我的AdWords费用减半,那好吧,我省了两万美元,但我不会给Double Down两万美元,因为那样我就没省钱了。
Well, if you do cut my AdWords in half, then, alright, I saved I saved 20 k, but I'm not willing to give 20 k to Double Down because then I'm not saving any money.
要想真正省钱,我得让Double Down拿少一点钱。
In order to actually save money, I need to get Double Down less money.
少多少呢?
How much less?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们就说四分之一吧。
Let's just call it a quarter.
所以我付给Double Down五千美元,省下两万美元。
So I pay Double Down 5 k to save 20.
所以我实际上省了十五万美元。
So I'm save I'm really saving 15.
Double Down每月赚5000美元。
Double Down's making 5 k a month.
这很不错。
That's pretty good.
在这个每月5美元的价格点上,大家都挺满意的。
Everyone's pretty happy at this $5 a month price point.
所以这没什么问题。
So there's nothing wrong with this.
没人做错什么。
No one's doing anything wrong.
这是一家完全合理的公司。
Like, that's a perfectly valid company.
然而,想想看,到了年底,CMO或首席产品官在向CEO汇报时可能面临的两种情况。
However, think about these two situations that the CMO might be or the chief product officer might be in in talking to the CEO at the end of the year.
第一种情况是:我们开始使用Double Down这个工具,它把我们的成本降低了一半。
Well, scenario one goes, we started using this tool double down and it halved our costs.
所以我们能把这笔钱花在其他事情上。
So we got we able to spend that money on some other stuff.
我们节省了资金。
We were able to save money.
CEO会说,太好了。
And the CEO go would say, great.
这很好。
That's good.
我们会续订,听到这个我很高兴。
Let's we're gonna renew, and I'm happy to hear it.
同样,这里没有任何问题。
Again, nothing wrong here.
但让我们换一个完全不同的角度。
But let's take a different tact altogether.
CEO更想听到什么?
What does the CEO wanna hear more?
增长还是省钱?
Growth or saves money?
两者都很好。
Both are good.
我知道哪个对公司更有利:能扩大市场份额、增强竞争力,同时提升公司价值,那就是增长。
I know which one is healthier for the company, increases market share, is better competitively, and also makes the company more valuable, it's the growth.
所以我们真正希望首席营销官告诉CEO的是,我提升了公司的增长率,而不仅仅是节省了钱。
So what we'd really like the CMO to tell the CEO is I increase the growth rate of the company, not so much I save money.
那样会好得多。
That would be way better.
这就是我们如何通过Double Down来实现这一点。
So here's how we could do that with Double Down.
是的。
Yes.
Double Down有成本,但这意味着目前公司每获取一个潜在客户要支付200美元。
Double Down has the cost, but what that means is right now right now, the company is paying $200 per lead.
我们称它们为潜在客户吧。
Let's call them leads.
对吧?
Right?
不管这个输出的是什么。
Whatever whatever this is outputting.
对吧?
Right?
如果我知道每个潜在客户的成本,我就能用同样的钱获得两倍的潜在客户。
Well, if I have the cost of a lead, I could get twice the leads for the same money.
我本来就已经愿意为每个潜在客户花200美元,而且每个月已经为此支出4万美元了。
I'm already willing to spend $200 a lead, and I'm already spending 40 k a month for it.
所以如果Double Down能把成本减半,就意味着我能获得更多潜在客户。
So if double down halves the cost, it means I can get more leads.
所以我推广Double Down的方式就是:每月潜在客户数量翻倍。
So what I the way I could pitch double down is double the leads per month with period.
如果我愿意为这个数量的潜在客户花费4万美元,那么为了将潜在客户数量翻倍,我愿意花多少钱?
Now if I'm willing to spend 40 k for this number of leads, how much am I willing to spend to double the leads?
4万美元。
40 k.
我刚说过,我愿意为这个数量的潜在客户花费4万美元。
I just said I'm willing to spend 40 k for this number of leads.
所以翻倍的话,我愿意花4万美元来实现翻倍。
So doubling it, I'm willing to spend 40 k to double it.
所以如果我给Double Down4万美元,而不是5千美元用于同一个产品,因为潜在客户的成本更低了。
So if I give double down 40 k, not 5 for the same product, which is the leads are cheaper.
但现在的卖点是,我用4万美元获得了双倍的潜在客户,而不是只花5千美元。
But the now the pitch is I doubled the leads for 40 k instead of instead of having the cost for 5 k.
所以Double Down拿到了8倍的金额,因为它为这个产品拿到了4万美元,而不是5千美元。
So Double Down gets 8 x the money because it gets 40 k for this product, not 8 not not 5 k for this product.
精彩的故事。
Amazing story.
每个人都很高兴,因为CEO问:‘你做了什么?’
And everyone's happy because the CEO goes, what did you do?
他们说:‘天哪。’
And they said, like, oh my god.
我让线索翻倍了。
I doubled leads.
什么?
What?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,在保持相同的投资回报率、相同的客户获取成本的情况下,我让线索翻倍了。
I mean, at the same at the same at the same ROI as we had before, same CAC, I doubled leads.
CEO问:‘我们怎么能多做点这样的事?’
CEO goes, how could we do more of that?
我的意思是,一切都变得好太多了。
Like, I mean, just everything is so much better.
同一个产品。
Same product.
我知道这有点夸张,等等,因为我只是想说明一个观点。
I know it's a little bit of an exaggeration, etcetera, because I'm trying to make a point.
对吧?
Right?
但关键点,或者说最重要的点是,定价不仅仅是页面上的那个数字。
But the but the the big point is, or the the largest point is pricing is not just the number on the page.
它是定位。
It's positioning.
它是他们的预算如何运作。
It's how their budgets work.
它是如何结构化的。
It's how it's structured.
比如,它是按网站计费,还是按使用量计费,或是按座位计费,所有这些都属于定价的一部分。
Like, it's per site or it's per usage or it's per seat or it's per all of this stuff is part of what pricing is.
而且,即使价格或产品相同,根据其结构方式的不同,它可能显得公平合理,也可能显得不公平或太贵等等。
And often, even if it's the same price or the same product, depending on how that's structured, it either seems fair and and and good or it seems like unfair and too expensive or whatever.
因此,特别在定位方面,给产品经理的重要启示是:多推销公司所重视的东西,比如增长。
And so in particular with the positioning, the big lesson for product managers is sell more of what the company values like growth.
它不一定是增长。
It doesn't have to be growth.
也可能是其他东西。
It could be something else.
比如客户留存率,或者他们在市场中的竞争力。
Their the retention for their customers, their competitive how competitive they are in the market.
比如,他们可能重视的各种因素有很多。
Like, there's various things they could value.
增长是一个显而易见的例子。
Growth is an obvious one.
要向他们推销的是,他们会获得更多他们所重视的东西,而不是强调节省、削减、投资回报率、节省时间、省钱或更高效。
Sell them that they're gonna get more of what they value as opposed to saving, cutting, ROI, saves time, saves money, more efficient.
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