成为有意识的领导者：无惧领导，找到人生的目标函数，提升愿景与战略能力 | 约翰·马克·尼科尔（Uber、Waymo、DoorDash）

他不会去爬小山。

He doesn't climb hills.

他会找到更高的山峰，并带你一起去。

He finds bigger mountains and will bring you there.

因此，沿着这个思路，如果有人来找你，想培养这些技能，想提升战略和远见能力——这几乎是每个产品领导者和每位管理者都希望提升的方面。

So along these lines, say someone comes to you and wants to build these skills, wants to get better at strategy, wants to get better at vision, which is something basically every product leader is trying to get better at and every leader wants to get better at.

你通常会给出什么建议？

What advice do you generally share?

一个人该如何在这些方面取得进步？

How does one improve in these areas?

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我很感谢你的夸奖。

I appreciate the compliment.

谢谢你，布伦特。

Thank you, Brent.

那真是句很棒的话。

That was a great quote.

嗯，我的意思是，没有什么神奇的工具包或手册。

Well, yeah, I mean, there's no, like, magic toolkit or manual.

你知道的。

You know?

我早就放弃了那种想法，觉得只要读完一本书，就能找到那个完美而 elusive 的答案，来解决生活中困扰你的任何问题。

I I've I've long ago given up on the notion that, I'm one book away from the the perfect elusive answer to whatever, you know, plagues you in life.

当然，关于战略的书有很多，你也知道，你会深入这些内容。

And, there's obviously lots of books about strategy, and, you know, you get into all that.

对我来说，有几件事一直很有帮助。

I guess for me, a couple of things have been helpful.

一个是，你之前提到过，找到一个你真正热衷的使命。

One is, you mentioned earlier finding a mission that you're really passionate about.

我觉得，要我想出一个改善医疗体系的策略，这对我来说会很难。

Like, I think it'll be hard for me to come up with a strategy for improving the health care system.

就像，我敢肯定。

Like, it's like, I bet sure.

这很重要。

It's important.

我希望有人能去做，能搞清楚怎么应对HIPAA和所有那些问题，但对我来说，这根本不是我要做的事。

I hope someone does it and figures out how to deal with HIPAA and whatever all the stuff, but it's like, it's just not for me.

这并不是我人生的目标、使命和愿景。

It's not my purpose, mission, and vision in life.

所以第一步是，我是否在一个我充满热情的领域和产品方向上工作？

And so step one is like, am I working at a place and in a product area in which I have a tremendous amount of passion?

对吧？

Right?

因为对我来说，这才是推动我突破、找到策略的动力和燃料。

Because for me, that is the fuel and the motivation that helps me break through to getting the strategy.

这就是第一步。

That's like the the first step.

所以我觉得自己特别幸运，因为像这样，彻底改变交通方式、汽车拥有模式，以及自动驾驶、车型设计和城市未来的发展，都是我非常热衷的领域。

So that's where I feel enormously lucky because, again, like this, you know, revolutionizing transportation and car ownership and what happens with autonomy and form factors and future of cities is something that I'm super excited about.

我会想到我的女儿们长大后，能生活在一个更安全、更环保的世界里，诸如此类的事情，对吧？

I think about my daughters growing up and having a, you know, a different world to live in that's safer and more environmentally friendly, all this stuff, right?

每当我想到，我所做的事情可能真正影响到她们的未来以及其他人的生活，我就感到无比激动。

And like, I get really jazzed when I think about, wow, the work I do could actually impact their future lives and other people.

天啊，我现在都能感觉到鸡皮疙瘩起来了。

And it's like, woah, I can feel the chills right now.

这真的超级有动力。

It's just like super motivating.

所以第一步就是让自己真正兴奋起来。

So that's the first place just getting myself kind of fired up.

接下来，我觉得有帮助的是，我已经深度投入其中。

And then the next thing, I guess, it's been helpful is, you know, I've deeply immersed myself.

你知道，我也没有在加密货币、生成式AI这些东西之间频繁跳转。

You know, I have it's also, you know, I haven't really jumped around between, you know, crypto and GenAI and all this stuff.

很多人确实会那样做。

And a lot of people do that.

很好。

Great.

这没什么不对的。

Nothing wrong with that.

但你知道，我过去十年主要专注于出行领域，中间也短暂涉足过餐饮科技和配送方面，但这些都与最后一公里物流密切相关。

But you know, I've been in this, you know, largely focused on mobility, you know, space for ten years now, with some stents over in the restaurant tech and delivery side, but very related in terms of last mile logistics.

所以，如果你只在一个领域工作了六个月左右，想要制定出一个出色的策略是很难的。

And so, you know, I think it's hard to come up with a great strategy if you've only been working in an area for like six months or so.

你知道，像这种问题特别需要细致深入的理解。

You know, it's like it's like especially things like this, which are been nuanced.

比如共享出行就是一个非常难攻克的难题。

Like shared rides is another good example where it's a super hard problem to crack.

而且，长时间深入钻研这一点，是取得成功的前提。

And like, you know, it's like going deep on that for a long time is is a precursor to being successful.

我想说的另一点是，人们总在谈论第一性原理思维，但如果这其中有道理，我认为就像马斯克会问：为什么火箭发射要花几十亿美元？根本没必要把材料都扔掉，诸如此类。

The other thing I would say, though, is, like, know, people always talk about first principles thinking, but if there's truth in it, I think, you know, that's like, you know, when and like when Elon's like, well, why does the rocket cost, you know, gazillion dollars to launch and, you know, like, there's no reason they have to throw away the materials and, you know, it's all blah blah blah.

举个例子，我们为什么需要一辆4000磅重的车来运送一个人行驶三英里？

You know, one example might be, why do we need a 4,000 pound vehicle to move a human three miles?

好吧。

Okay.

或者甚至运送两三个乘客，对吧？

Well or even a couple humans, right?

我们用Uber拼车或者共享出行，对吧？

We do an Uber Pool or a share, right?

你可以一次运送两三个乘客。

And you move two humans or three humans.

即便如此，这依然相当低效，对吧？

Even then, like, that's pretty inefficient, right?

如果你想想那里的物理原理，比如能量消耗，我觉得你可能会想到自行车、滑板车之类的其他东西，对吧？

If you think about, like, just the physics there of, like, the energy expenditure, right, it's like and that's where I think, you know, you might come up with bikes and scooters and little other things, right?

当然，也不是总在下雨，当你需要车的时候。

And sure, it's not always it's raining if you want the car.

但这恰恰是一个例子，说明要质疑事物为何如此存在。

But that's sort of an example of, like, questioning, like, why are things the way they are?

然后进一步思考，这些事物的存在方式是否在某些方面极其低效或不够优化，对吧？

And then are is the way they are like super inefficient or like not optimal from in some sense, right?

而这常常是发现机会的入口，让你看到，也许事情可以不一样。

And that is often a doorway to opportunity, right, to see, okay, well, maybe things could be different.

所以我可以把这一点延伸到更大的层面，展望未来。

And so I can extend that, you know, at larger level to the future, you know.

我通常的做法就是，嗯，关于登山这件事，我只是闭上眼睛，尽可能远地想象未来。

My general thing is just like, yeah, the mountain thing is like, I try to just like close my eyes and imagine the future as far out as I can.

比如五年后、十年后，等等。

You know, it's like five years from now, ten years from now, whatever.

然后要形成一个非常鲜明的画面，想象它是什么样子。

And it's like develop a really salient picture of what that looks like.

你知道，突然想到，我们其实现在就可以这么做。

You know, it's like, it's like, oh, wait, so we could do this right now.

没关系，十年后，旧金山会是什么样子？

It's okay, you know, ten years from now, what could San Francisco look like?

或者任何一座城市。

Or some city.

停车位会变成什么样？

What happens to the parking spaces?

还会有停车楼吗？

Are there still parking garages?

那些地方会变成公园吗？

Are those parks now?

你知道，未来的交通方式会是什么？

You know, what are the modes of transport?

像是自动驾驶的公交车，连接人们与自行车和滑板车？

Are like bus like things that are autonomous that are connecting people to bikes and scooters?

还有，人们是怎么生活的？

And, you know, how are people living?

他们会住在更远的郊区吗？因为自动驾驶，他们能住上更好的房子，然后每天通勤进城？

Do they live in the far suburbs even more because autonomy and they have a nicer house and they come in?

还是说所有空间都被重新利用，城市生活其实更便宜了，因为我们把一切压缩在一起，等等等等。

Or is all the space repurposed and actually it's cheaper to live in the city because we compact things, blah, blah, blah.

这甚至不是关于找到正确的方案。

You know, it's not even about having the right one.

更重要的是，去构想一种让你热血沸腾的未来图景。

It's more just like kind of developing some sort of, you know, picture of the future that gets you fired up.

对吧？

Right?

然后，是的，你得去清晰地表达出来，传递出去，让人们愿意和你一起踏上这段旅程。

And then, yeah, you gotta go, like, you know, articulate that and communicate it and get people to come on the journey with you.

但基于这个愿景，首先需要思考的是，十年、二十年后，什么才是真正会成立的？

But like from that picture, it's like, well, first principle, what's going to be true, you know, ten, twenty years from now?

自动驾驶是必然的。

Well, autonomy is like a given.

我认为大多数人应该都会同意这一点。

I think most people would probably agree with that.

而且，我们很可能仅靠摄像头和多激光雷达就能解决这个问题，毕竟人类没有激光雷达，车辆和传感器的成本也会下降。

And, you know, we'll probably solve it with just cameras and multi LiDAR because humans don't have LiDAR, you know, the cost of vehicles and sensors will come down.

远程支持的成本也会降低。

Remote support will come down.

总有一天，它会变得非常便宜。

And at some point, it'll be super cheap.

于是，如果我能推演下去，这就会成为现实。

And it's like, okay, if I can extrapolate that, will be a thing.

这跟哪个玩家最终胜出无关。

Separate from which player wins.

我不是说我能预测哪些公司会在这个领域胜出。

I'm not saying I can predict, you know, the ecosystem of companies that will win here.

更重要的是底层的动态机制，对吧？

It's more about just the underlying dynamics, right?

然后，这会是其中之一。

And then, you know, that would be one.

另一个则是，共享出行。

And then the other one would be, yeah, sharing away.

很多人会想，一旦我们有了便宜的自动驾驶汽车，每个人在城市里都会拥有自己的超廉价Uber、特斯拉之类的，但事实是，这行不通，因为那样我们会遇到所谓的‘诱导需求’概念，也就是经济学家所说的：以前短信每条50美分的时候，你发多少条？而现在免费了，你一天发上百万条。

It's like, well, a lot of people are like, oh, well, once we have cheap autonomous cars, like, everybody just have their own super cheap Uber, Tesla, or whatever it is here on the city, and you're like, well, that doesn't work because then we're gonna hit this induced demand concept, right, which is like what economists call it when like, yeah, you used to when text messages cost 50¢ apiece, how many did you send, right, versus now when it's free, it's in a million.

同样的道理，当高速公路增加一条车道时，交通状况还是会和以前一样糟糕，因为更多人选择开车。

Same thing when they add a lane to a highway, right, the traffic just gets just as bad as before because more people drive and so forth.

所以，如果我们让大量单人乘坐的超廉价自动驾驶汽车充斥街道，只会比现在更加拥堵。

So if we flood the streets with super cheap autonomous cars with single occupancy, we're just going to have even more gridlock than we do right now.

也许我们会像无聊公司那样挖隧道，但那可能性更小。

Maybe we'll do the boring company thing and dig tunnels and but that's even likely.

对。

Right.

所以对我来说，从第一性原理来看，共享出行将继续成为未来交通的重要组成部分，以及其他模式，比如回到三英里的问题。

So then that from for me, it's like, well, from first principles, shared rides is going to continue to be an important part of the future of transportation and other modalities where, yeah, back to the three mile thing.

就像可能会有各种形式的自行车、滑板车和小型高尔夫球车之类的东西，无论我们最终会造出什么，对吧？

It's like, well, there probably will be various form factors of bikes, scooters, and little mini golf cart things and whatever we end up building, right?

所以，这可以说是我想问题的一种方式，也就是，未来哪些事情很可能是真的，然后这些又如何引导出一个潜在的生态系统和策略，关于我们可能为实现未来而构建的东西？

And so that's kind of, I hope, an example of how I kind of think about, right, like, what are the likely things to be true in the future, And then how does that lead to a potential kind of ecosystem and strategy around what we might build, you know, towards that future?

这很棒，因为每个人都能做到。

This is great because this is something everyone can do.

大家都在谈论制定愿景、描绘愿景、传达愿景。

And there's all this talk of, like, creating a vision, painting a vision, communicating a vision.

而你所描述的，正是如何真正坐下来思考未来可能是什么样子。

And what you're describing is how to actually sit there and think about what it might look like.

就像坐着，闭上眼睛，在脑海中想象未来五到十年，真正的未来会是什么样子？

Like, sit there, close your eyes, and in your head, visualize in the next five or ten years, what does the future actually look like?

你是以‘如果我们推出这个产品并做出改变’的前提来思考的，还是即使我们不在，未来也大概会朝哪个方向发展？

And do you do this in a state of if we were to do this product and change, or is it just even if we're not around, here's where the future is gonna go most likely?

你通常会采取哪种方向？

Is which which direction do you usually take?

是的，这是个好问题。

Yeah, that's a good question.

我的意思是，你两种方式都可以尝试。

I mean, you could probably do either.

我通常喜欢从‘农民’的角度出发，也就是撇开我自身，世界会朝什么方向发展？

I typically like to start with the farmer, which is just like what will the world move towards absent me?

我只是试图从宏观视角，看看我认为的趋势、轨迹和未来会发生什么。

Just trying to pick a, you know, kind of bird's eye view of what I think is the trajectories are and trends and what's going to happen.

然后，是的，你可以加上一个视角：如果我们开发XYZ产品或采取这种策略，我们如何影响结果或从中受益？

And then, yeah, you could apply a lens of, okay, if we were to build product XYZ, or have this strategy, how might we influence the outcome or benefit from it?

或者，你知道，这是否与那个方向一致？

Or, you know, is it in congruence with that?

还是说，这与之相冲突，试图去改变它？

Or is it, you know, rubbing against that and trying to change that?

两种方式都可能不错。

Either could be good.

对吧？

Right?

你可能会说，这是顺风还是逆风。

You might say we're gonna it's a tailwind or a headwind.

你知道，两者都是可以克服的，但了解这些因素之间的关系是有好处的。

You know, both are overcomeable, but, like, having some awareness of of the relationship between those things is is good.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，比如交通领域，Uber，理论上更容易想象那样的未来，以及它可能有多令人兴奋，相比之下，一个B2B的SaaS薪酬应用或者某个照片分享类应用就没那么明显。

And I think, like, you know, transportation, Uber, it's like, in theory, it might be easier to visualize that future and how exciting that might be versus a b to b SaaS payroll app or some, like, photo sharing thing.

但另一方面，也未必如此。

But on the other hand, not not necessarily.

对吧？

Right?

比如，十年后，人们将如何获得报酬？

Like, in but in the future, ten years, how are people gonna be paid?

人们如何在公司工作？

How do people work at companies?

我认为，无论你做什么产品，都有机会做到这一点。

Like, I think there's an opportunity to do that no matter what you're building.

你到底是不是真的在做这件事？

How do you actually is this something you actually do?

你就坐在办公室里，闭上眼睛，只是想象吗？

You just sit there in the office, close your eyes, and just imagine?

这是否是一个更迭代的过程，需要你和团队一起进行？

Is this more of an iterative process where you get with your team?

你到底该如何实际实践这一点？

Like, how do you actually practice this?

是的。

Yeah.

这可不是那种你能在一天中挤出三十分钟，应付一堆OKR评审、随机的一对一会议和各种会议就能搞定的事情。

It's not like something you can just schedule thirty minutes for in the middle of your day of packed OKR reviews and random one on ones and meetings.

你知道，如果我不是已经有个大致框架、准备进入团队协作阶段，我更喜欢先自己一个人做。

You know, it's like, I like to do it on my own first if I, you know, unless it's something that I already have a kind of outline for and I'm ready to move into a team space.

所以对我来说，就是，嗯，我能不能找到一个安静、沉思的空间，对吧？

So for me, it's like, yeah, like, can I get into a quiet, contemplative space, right?

所以，我喜欢去跑步，这自然能激发我的灵感；或者去马林县徒步，有时我会一边走一边思考，或者记点东西，或者录个语音备忘录，来启动思路。

So yeah, I like to go for a run, and that obviously gives me ideas, or I'll go for a hike up in, you know, Marin, and sometimes I'll just like think of stuff or jot something down or make a voice note while I'm doing that, you know, to kind of get things going.

但总的来说，对我来说，第一步就是摆脱日常的混乱。

But yeah, like the first step for me is just getting out of the craziness of day to day.

在我看来，简直难以置信，有多少产品经理和各级领导者，整天排满了一连串的会议，三十分钟的评审，一个重要的议题，时间一到就匆匆赶去下一个，回一堆邮件，再硬塞进几个PRD。

Like to me, it's still insane, like how many product manager leaders of all kinds, right, just run the schedule of, like, back to back meetings, you know, thirty minute reviews, a big meaty topic, run out of time, run to the next thing, answer a bunch of emails, and then cram some PRDs in there.

你知道，这根本行不通，对吧？

And like it's like, you know, it doesn't work, right?

所以我非常支持腾出时间，首先是为自己留出几个小时，不管怎样，远离日常的纷扰，进入那种五年、十年后的思维状态。

And so I'm a big fan of carving out time, again, first for myself, couple hours, you know, whatever, where I can just like get out of the day to day craziness and, you know, get into that headspace of five, ten years from now, right?

这是一种完全不同的状态，所以你需要过渡到这种状态。

It's just a different place, so you need to transition to that.

然后，再把这种想法带到团队中。

And then yeah, bring that to Teams.

如果我脑子里已经有了关于未来交通的一些初步构想，我可能会和一群同事分享，然后我们一起花上一段时间共同探讨。

Like if I have like an outline of that kind of future of transportation in my head, I might share that with a group of folks and we'll come together also for some extended period of time.

我们最近就有一个周一全天的活动，八个人到办公室讨论市场的未来，效果非常好。

Like we recently had an all day Monday thing where eight of us came into the office to talk about future of Marketplace, and it was super productive.

就是，笔记本都合上了。

Was like, you know, laptops down.

我们要一整天都围在白板前一起工作。

We're going to spend all day together on a whiteboard.

这简直成了一门失传的技艺。

It's like a lost art.

连白板都不用了。

Don't even use the whiteboards anymore.

但是啊。

So but yeah.

从那里开始，就是让更多人参与进来，然后你可以逐步迭代。

And then from there, it's like getting more people, and then and then you can kinda iterate on it.

对吧？

Right?

我曾经有一些对未来的设想，然后有人指出其中有些地方不太对，或者有更好的想法，于是你就进入了共同创造的阶段。

So I had some vision of the future, and someone points out something that, you know, is a little bit, you know, off with it or it has a better idea or, know, you kind of you're then you move into cocreation.

但我非常喜欢这种方式。

But I love that.

就像皮克斯所说的‘智囊团’，如果你读过艾克哈特·莫勒的书，就会知道他们是如何构思《玩具总动员》和《头脑特工队》这些作品的——就是一群人围坐在一起，自由地碰撞想法。

It's like, you know, the the Pixar calls the brain trust, right, when if you read Eckhart Molle's book, right, where, like, how they come up with Toy Story and Inside Out and all these things, right, is like they have this group of people that just sits around riffing on ideas.

而且，同样地，这里没有任何评判。

And, again, there's there's no judgment.

没有人执着于自己是对的。

There's no attachment to being right.

他们处于一种共同创造的空间里，只是彼此一起探索、即兴发挥。

There's no, you know, they're in a co creative sort of space where they're just, like, co exploring and and riffing with each other.

我喜欢和别的产品经理、工程师以及数据科学家一起处在这样的空间里。

And I I love to be in that space with, you know, with other PMs and engineers and and data scientists.

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我开始尝试做的一件事很难，但我发现非常有价值：开车时不开收音机，也不听任何播客。

Something I've started to do, which is hard, but I find really valuable is when I'm driving to not play anything on the radio, not listen to any podcasts.

是的。

Mhmm.

这感觉很不自然，就像在说：哦，这真难。

And it's so unnatural, and it's like, oh, this is hard.

我只是不想让我的大脑空转，你其实并不信任你的大脑能去到一个有趣的地方，但它总会去。

Like, I just I don't want my brain to just go like, it you don't want you don't trust your brain to go to a place that's fun, but it always does.

最后总是会发现：哦，刚才突然冒出来的这个想法真有意思。

It always ends up being like, oh, that was so interesting just to, like, think of this idea that just came up.

所以我一直在尝试这样做，这其实是一件很简单的事情。

So I've been trying to do that, and that's, such a simple thing to do.

就别打开任何东西。

Just don't turn anything off.

不过，告诉人们不要收听你的播客，对你的播客业务可不太有利。

Well, it's not really good for your podcast business to tell people

别放弃。

not to lose.

好了，各位。

Okay, everyone.

我们剪辑到这里。

We're cutting this.

我发现每次外出时听伦尼的播客都非常有帮助。

What I find really helpful is playing Lenny's podcast every time I'm out and about.

不。

No.

但你说的有一定道理，那就是外面总有很多内容可以去追求。

But there's something to what you said, which is, there's always a lot of content out there to pursue.

我曾经陷入过那种状态，觉得越多内容越好，但事实上，你现在有一段时间根本没在听任何东西，比如去徒步时不去听播客或音乐，或者在通勤时也什么都不听，看看会发生什么。

And I have been in that mode where I'm like, yeah, more content, more and then but, yeah, actually, somewhere you spend a lot of time now, like, not listening to anything, you know, go on a hike where you don't listen to a podcast or music or, yeah, your commute and see what happens.

你可能会感到惊讶。

You might be surprised.

是的。

Yeah.

而且最后总是会觉得，哦，那真不错。

And it always ends up being like, oh, that was cool.

而且，你知道的，淋浴时的灵感、这些想法都是这么来的。

And, you know, that's where shower ideas come from and all these things.

也许可以看看，在你最近的头脑风暴会议中，有没有什么出人意料或全新的想法产生？

Maybe just to see if there's something here, is there in this meeting that you have, this ideation brainstorming meeting, is there anything that came out of that that was, like, really surprising or new from a recent experience?

有没有什么让你忍不住说‘哇’的发现？

Is there anything there just like, oh, wow.

我们真正发现了未来的一个潜在复杂点，这需要我们以不同的方式去思考。

We really uncovered this potential wrinkle of the future that we really need to think about differently.

嗯，也许不是一个具体的复杂点，但我们现在大量思考的一件事是，我很幸运能参与制定优步出行业务未来三年左右的产品或整体技术战略。

Well, it wasn't maybe a specific wrinkle, but one of the things that we're thinking a lot about, I've I'm fortunate to be involved in trying to, help, develop and articulate kind of a multiyear, three year sort of product or overall straight tech strategy for the mobility business at Uber.

对我们来说，其中一个重要的领悟是，当我们逐渐远离UberX这种相对简单的世界时，对吧？UberX曾经非常简单。

And one of the, I guess, big ahas for us is, you know, as we move away from the kind of, in some ways, simpler world of UberX, right, being the predominant product, which is, you know, it used to be pretty simple, right?

它就像是司机一侧的计价器，对吧？

You it's kind of like a taxi meter on the driver side, right?

每个人都会根据时间和距离来计费。

There's a time and distance rate that everybody gets.

而在乘客一侧，虽然会有一些基于供需关系的高峰定价，但归根结底，它只是一个产品。

And then on the rider side, it's like, sure, there's some surge pricing based on supply and demand, but you know, it's one product.

它非常直接明了。

It's pretty straightforward.

因此，未来多模式出行在需求端和供给端的融合，使得市场平台的构建变得更加复杂和具有挑战性。

And so, you know, this future of multimodality and on the both demand side and the supply side is what makes Marketplace like even more complex and challenging to build.

因此，现在我们平台上有了出租车、车队提供商，还开始加入waymotes、机组人员等其他服务，我们必须构建一个能够识别这些不同供应类型、了解哪些供应适合哪些行程、并能综合考虑成本、质量和行程分配的市场机制。

And so it's kind of all this around like, okay, well, you know, now that we have taxis in the platform, and we have fleet providers, and we're starting to add waymotes and crews and other things, you know, we have to have a marketplace that's aware of those different types of supply and, you know, which ones might be available for what trips and how to think about cost and quality and kind of allocation of trips and all that.

而在需求端，我们有各种不同的产品，比如拼车、预约用车、舒适型、X型，还有优先服务等等。

And then on the demand side, it's like, yeah, we've got all these different products like shared rides and reserved rides and, you know, comfort and x and, you know, priority.

那么，我们该如何思考这些产品之间的定价关系呢？

And it's like, how do we think about how to price those relative to each other?

对吧？

Right?

我们该如何决定向哪个用户展示哪种产品？

How do we think about which ones to show which user?

你该怎么考虑排序以及其他相关因素呢？

You know, how do you think about the ranking and the and so forth?

而且这一切都会反过来影响定价和匹配机制本身。

And and then that all has, you know, feedback loops into the to the pricing and matching itself as well.

所以，当我思考Uber未来市场的动态时，真的会感到震撼。

So the the dynamics of the thing when I think about the future of marketplace at Uber is like, woah.

你知道，这就像是，我认为从来没有人构建过这样的系统。

You know, it's like and I don't think anyone's ever built that.

这正是它最酷的地方。

That's a super cool thing about it.

我认为我们拥有全球最棒的物流交易平台技术，我们打造了别人从未建成过的东西。

I think we have the best logistics marketplace tech on the planet, and we've built something that no one else has ever built.

而且，与数字交易平台相比，我们面对的是完全不同的现实世界需求。

And, you know, relative to like digital marketplaces, for example, just different physical world requirements.

而我刚才描述的下一个阶段，即考虑不同类型供给和不同需求渠道，进一步增加了复杂性。

And then this next arc of what I described of thinking about, you know, different types of supply and different kind of demand channels just adds even more to that.

所以，是的，但我的意思是，我想我们得思考所有这些内容，思考供给与需求如何相互关联。

So, yeah, the but the was like, I guess, yeah, we gotta think about all that stuff and think about how the supply and demand relate to each other.

天啊。

Oh my god.

是的。

Yeah.

这会很酷。

It's gonna be cool.

现在它只是一个无限分布的市场。

It's just a infinitely sited marketplace now.

太疯狂了。

That's wild.

我想再强调一下你之前分享的关于如何提升战略和远见的一点：那就是深入钻研一个主题。

One last nugget I wanted to just reinforce that you shared about how to become better at strategy and vision developing great and interesting and innovative strategy and vision is going really deep on a topic.

所以你在这个领域已经待了很久了。

So you you've been in the space for a long time.

保罗·格雷厄姆好像提到过一个概念，叫‘你的首要想法’之类的，意思是，无论你的首要想法是什么，只要你能不断思考它，让它始终萦绕在心头，保持单一的核心焦点，你就更有可能产生新的、有趣的想法，因为当你开车时听伦尼的播客，你的大脑会持续地处理它。

There's this idea that Paul Graham talks about, I think, called your top idea or something like that, that when you have one like, whatever your top ideas, the more you can just think about that and keep that top of mind as you go about your day and just have one core focus, the more likely it is you're gonna come up with new interesting ideas because your brain's gonna keep working on it when you're driving around listening to Lenny's podcast.

开玩笑的。

Just kidding.

或者去徒步旅行。

Or going on a hike.

所以我认为这是一个非常重要的观点：如果你发现自己难以制定出出色的战略或愿景，正面临困难，部分原因可能是你没有在这一领域投入足够的时间。

So I think that's a really important point is, like, if you're finding you can't you're not coming up with a great strategy or vision and just, like, having struggles, part of it might just be you're not spending enough time in that space.

你对问题领域的探索还不够深入。

You're not going deep enough in the problem area.

一种方法就是在这个领域深耕十年。

One approach is just spend, like, a decade in that space.

我这么说的时候，是不是也让我想起自己不得不这样做的经历？

Is there is there anything else just comes up as I say that I've just had to do that?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，从宏观层面来看，也许确实需要在某个领域待上十年。

Well, there's also that's at the macro level, maybe spending ten years in a space.

但从微观层面来说，回到之前说的：别把一天搞得支离破碎。

But at the micro level, back to kinda like, don't defrag your day.

别只安排三十分钟的会议，你知道的，二十到三十分钟的会议，却涉及二十个不同的主题。

Don't just do the thirty minute meetings, you know, twenty, thirty minute meetings on on 20 different topics.

有时候，这是优先要做的，你确实得这么做。

Like, Sometimes it's brought first and, like, you gotta do that.

你有一个庞大的团队。

You have a large team.

我当然会跨团队进行审核。

Like, I do obviously review across teams.

我不是说某些日子我不这么做，但关键是，我最重要的几件事是什么？

I'm not saying I don't do that on some days, but it's like, yeah, like, what are my top few things?

对吧？

Right?

我觉得你说得对。

Like, I think, like, you're right.

好像早期PayPal的彼得·蒂尔也提到过这一点。

Think it was Peter Thieler from the early PayPal guys talked about that too.

对吧？

Right?

比如，深入钻研，让一个人或一位领导者真正负责公司的一项核心深度事务，全身心投入其中。

Like, going really deep and having a person or a a leader, like, really responsible for one core deep thing for the company, and that's, like, something they immerse themselves in.

所以在微观层面，这对我来说意味着，我不会有一份包含20件事的待办清单，对吧？

And so in the micro, that that to me again translates to, yeah, I don't have a to list of 20 things, right?

我尽量把待办事项聚焦在三件最重要、最具杠杆效应的事情上，这些事能对公司整体产生广泛影响，然后就像你说的，专注于其中最重要的一件事，反复琢磨。

I try to have a to list of three of the most important, highest leverage things that could, you know, kind of have impact broadly across the company, and then try just like you said, like, let that one top thing marinate and and and chew on it.

我太喜欢这个观点了。

I love that.

我最近发了一篇帖子，讲各种提高效率的小技巧，其中我觉得特别有用的一点是，每天开始和每周开始时，都写下我必须完成的一到三件事。

And I I recently had a post about how to be all these productivity tricks, and one of the things that I find really helpful is at the beginning of each day and also the beginning of each week, just write down here's the one to three things that I need to do and get done.

其他事情呢？我可能有一份很长的清单，但真正关键的就是这三件事。

And everything else like, I might have this really long list, but here's the three things.

只要完成了这三件，生活就会很顺利。

If I get done, life will be good.

我已经做了很多了。

I've done a lot.

我确实完成了一些非常重要且出色的事情。

I've accomplished really great important things.

完全正确。

Totally.

我曾经试过一次大卫·艾伦的GTD方法，就是那个特别复杂的组织系统。

I tried to do the David Allen GTD thing once, you know, the super complicated, you know, organization system.

对我来说，那种结构太繁琐了。

It's just like, it was too much structure for me.

我根本做不到。

Like, I couldn't do it.

他说，到了一天结束时，你其实只需要明确接下来三件最重要的事，然后还有一个可以定期浏览的随机待办清单，就这样。

He's like, at the end of day, when you said this right, there are basically three things that I need to do next, and then there's, like, just some random backlog that I can just scan through periodically, and that's it.

这样就已经能解决大部分问题了。

That gets you most of the way.

这太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

我二十年前读过那本书，到现在还有一些理念仍然让我受益并加以运用。

I read that book, like, twenty years ago at this point, and there's just, like, elements that still make things, like, I leverage and benefit from.

即使你不去完整地执行整个系统。

Like, even if you don't process do the whole thing.

那本书我推荐大家读，因为只要你从中吸取一两点，生活就会变好。

Like, that book, I recommend people read because there's just, like if you pick a couple things from there, your life gets better.

让我印象最深的是‘待办’这个概念：比如你给设计师发邮件，说，嘿。

The things that have stuck with me, the main one is this waiting for concept of if you're waiting if you, like, email your designer and, like, hey.

我需要你审核一下这个产品。

I need you to review this product.

就简单记下：等待Dan审核设计。

Just, like, note, waiting for Dan to review design.

把这类事项写下来，而不是放在脑子里，真的帮了我大忙。

And just having that thread written down and not in your head really helped me.

完全对。

Totally.

是的。

Yeah.

总之，我不会继续谈这个了。

Anyway, I'm not gonna go on that.

不管你们用什么结构，我觉得这本书给我最大的启发是：如果事情只在你脑子里，那你就完了。

Of, like, the not whatever structure you use, I think the most powerful takeaway from that book for me was if it's in your head, you're screwed.

因为你得同时记着各种事情、保持创造力、规划未来的事务，还要记得去药房买东西。

Because it's like you're trying to keep track of stuff and be creative and come up with future transportation and remember to pick up something from the pharmacy.

这简直就是一场灾难的配方。

It's like, doesn't it's just not it's a recipe for disaster.

这个‘空杯心态’的概念，你知道的，初学者的心态。

Like, this whole idea of, like, empty mind, you know, beginner's mind.

但你首先得把所有待办事项从脑子里清空。

Well, you have to empty the mind of all the to dos first.

先把它们都写下来。

Just get that out

在脑子里。

of the head.

没错。

Absolutely.

我觉得是‘心如止水’。

I think it was mind like water.

这个说法让我印象深刻。

That's the one that stuck with me.

是的。

Yeah.

你需要记住的任何事都不能留在脑子里。

Where nothing you need to remember can be in your head.

必须写下来。

It needs to be written down.

Anyway，我们别在这儿展开一场完整的效率播客了。

Anyway, let's not go into a whole productivity podcast here.

完美。

Perfect.

所以我们谈到了愿景战略。

So we talked about vision strategy.

一般来说，人们在愿景战略上面临两个问题。

So there's kind of like classically two problems people have with vision strategy.

一个是：我如何才能做得更好？

One is how do I get better at it?

另一个是：我需要真正把事情做完。

The other is just like, I need to actually get shit done.

我不能把所有时间都花在思考愿景上。

I can't spend all my time thinking about vision.

你对如何找到这种平衡有非常独到的见解，你也亲眼见过愿景与执行结合得好和不好的情况。

You have a really good take on how to find this balance, and you've seen it work well and not well, just vision versus execution.

我什么时候该聚焦宏大愿景？

When do I go big vision?

我该花多少时间在愿景上，而不是直接去做事、执行、执行、再执行？

How much do I spend vision versus just get shit done, execute, execute, execute?

你能分享一下，你是如何学会找到这种平衡的吗？你见过哪些有效和无效的做法？

What could you share about just what you learned about how to find that balance and what you've seen work and not work?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你无论偏向哪个极端都可能走得太远。

I think you can go too far either direction.

对吧？

Right?

生活中的一切都是关于在两种对立力量之间找到平衡。

You could it's like everything in life is about balancing the polarity between two opposing forces.

在这个问题上，就是说，如果你过于偏向执行和理论那一端。

And so in this one, it's like, yeah, you go too hard in division and theory land.

我知道早期的Uber就曾出现过这种情况，还是回到定价的未来问题，当时我们让所有数据科学家和博士们进房间待了两周。

You know, I've seen that go off the axle at early Uber where, again, back to the future of pricing, it's like, you know, we have all the data scientists and PhDs walked in a room for two weeks.

有一张漂亮的白板图。

There's a beautiful whiteboard diagram.

它长什么样？

What did it look like?

然后就会想，我们到底该怎么实际构建这个东西？

And then it's like, well, how do we actually build this thing?

工程师们会说，这简直是在煮沸整片海洋，你知道吗？

And engineers are like like, this is like boiling the ocean, you know?

你会陷入这样的困境：听起来理论上很棒，但我完全不知道该怎么开始执行。

And, like, you just get wrapped around the axle of like, well, that sounds really good in theory, but I have no idea how to even start executing on this.

所以这可能是我们过于偏向愿景和理论那一端的例子。

So that's probably an example of like we tilted a little too far towards, you know, the vision theory land.

你描述的是最初那个打造优秀搜索定价算法的计划吗？

And this was, you're describing like the original plan to make a really good search pricing algorithm?

是的，这个计划旨在整合我们做司机定价的方式，比如按时间和距离计费，同时还有激励措施，比如如果你每周开车达到一定小时数，就能获得奖金。

Yeah, this was a plan to try to bring together, you know, say how we do driver pricing, you know, time and distance rates, but also, you know, we do incentives for drivers where it's like if you drive this many hours a week, you get a bonus.

然后还有动态加价，以及如何把这些系统非常复杂地整合在一起。

Then there's also surge pricing and like how to tie all those systems together in a very

这种做法有点像是，

sophisticated This sort of was,

你知道的，大概是在2017年左右，当时只是

you know, you know, back in 2017 or something, and it was just

有点过于理想化了。

a it is winged a little

太偏向理论了。

too hard into theory land.

我们有时候还是会有这种倾向。

And and we we still have that bias sometimes.

我们经常开玩笑说市场平台的事，尤其是和其他团队交流的时候。

You know, we joke about marketplace, you know, especially when we talk about with other teams.

你知道，他们正试图在市场平台上做整合。

You know, they're trying to integrate in the marketplace.

假设他们推出了车队或团队这样的全新产品，你知道的。

Let's say they add, you know, fleets or, you know, teams as a big new product.

对吧？

Right?

然后市场团队就会说，你们有没有考虑过，如果团队需求增长到那个程度，两年后可能出现的某个随机问题啊，诸如此类的，你知道的，随便什么？

And then marketplace people would be like, well, have you thought about this one random problem that could happen two years from now if Teams become this much of demand and blah blah blah, you know, whatever?

我们确实有时候会在这方面钻牛角尖。

And it's just like we we do get wrapped around the axle on that on that sometimes.

但未来定价就是一个很好的例子，别太早地倒推到三年前。

But So the the future price is a very good example, rewindle too far into three one.

但你也可能过度偏向执行层面。

But you get you could probably go too far into execution land too.

据我所知，DoorDash 有时就会这样，我们以前甚至半开玩笑地说过。

And I'd say, you know, DoorDash, in my experience, would do that sometimes where we used to actually even half joke there.

我们一些领导者会说，这就像：准备好了，开火，再瞄准。

Some of us leaders would be like, it's like, ready, fire, aim.

那时候人们会说，我就直接撞墙算了。

And it was like people would be like, I'm just gonna run through a wall.

我不知道那是不是该撞的墙，但至少我知道自己在撞墙。

I have no idea if that's the right wall to run through, but at least I know I'm running through a wall.

所以，是的，我认为关键在于平衡。

So, yeah, I think it's it's about balance.

而且，你能调整吗？

And it's, you know, can you can you adjust?

再说一遍，这是动态的。

Again, it's dynamic.

我觉得有时候你需要深入反思：我们的产品战略到底是什么？

I think there's times where you're soul searching sort of what is our product strategy?

你知道，我们得转型。

You know, we got to pivot.

也许你是个初创公司，但你还没开始运作，这时候你就得思考一下，然后就会觉得，好吧，稍微松一松油门，放缓执行节奏，转而专注于战略和愿景。

Maybe you're a startup, but you're not working, you want to think about, and then it's like, okay, well, off the pull off the gas a little bit, ease up on the execution, and let's lean into, you know, the strategy vision piece.

然后，当战略愿景已经基本确定，至少在未来六个月或一年内是这样时，

And then there's time for the strategy vision is pretty baked, at least for the next whatever, six months, year.

这时候就该说，好吧，

And it's like, okay.

全速前进。

Pedal to the metal.

我们只管去执行。

Let's just go execute.

把事情搞定。

Let's get it done.

我刚去参加了在大通中心举办的收购主题播客活动，扎克伯格和Spotify的CEO都在场。

I just went to this acquired podcast event at the Chase Center with and Zuck was there, and the CEO of Spotify was there too.

有两件小事让我想起了你之前说的。

And there's two two quick anecdotes that you remind me of.

一个是扎克伯格提到，一旦Facebook和扎克伯格团队达成一致，明确了方向，无论前方出现多少堵墙，很快就会出现一个形似人形的洞，因为他们会直接冲过去，完成必须完成的事情。

One is Zuck talked about how once Facebook and Zuck and the team align on here's where we're going, no matter how many walls appear in front of them, there's gonna be a mark shaped, hole in the wall very soon because they're just gonna run through and get things done that they need to get done.

我真的很喜欢这种心态：一旦我们确定了方向，就会直接撞穿这些障碍。

And I really love that mentality of, like, once we're sure where we're going, we're gonna bust through these walls.

这太棒了。

That's awesome.

另一个是Spotify的一个非常有趣的价值观。

The other is a really interesting value at Spotify.

丹尼尔·埃克分享了这一点。

So Daniel Ek shared this.

他说，在Spotify，我们有一个核心价值观。

He said he said at Spotify, we have this core value.

空谈无用。

Talk is cheap.

当你听到这句话时，可能会觉得它在说谈话没有价值，但实际上他们将其视为一种美德。

And when you hear that, you think it's saying talk is not valuable, and it's actually they look at it as a virtue.

空谈无用。

Talk is cheap.

我们可以先讨论，这几乎不花钱，比起实际开发要便宜得多。

We can talk, and it costs us no money, very little money compared to building something.

因此，Spotify 花了大量时间来完善他们的想法，反复讨论，直到确信某件事是正确的。

So they actually spent a lot of time in Spotify refining their ideas and discussing until they're really sure something is right.

你对这个有什么看法吗？

And I guess any reaction to that?

因为我觉得这非常有趣。

Because I thought that was really interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

我非常喜欢这一点。

I love that.

这几乎是一种不同的风格，我想到了贝佐斯说过的话，他说我喜欢一份清晰的文档和一场混乱的会议。

It's almost a a different flavor of, I think, the Bezos saying of you know, he's like, I like a crisp a crisp doc and a messy meeting.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

整个亚马逊的做法，你有那个三页或七页的叙述性文档。

The whole Amazon thing, and you have the, you know, the three page or seven page narrative.

它写得清晰得就像天使在高处歌唱。

It's, you know, written with the clarity of angels singing from on high.

至少，它能清晰地描述问题、日期、事件或未来之类的。

At least, you know, describing, yeah, the problems, date, event or future or whatever.

所以它非常清晰、有条理，而且表达得非常好。

And so it's, like, super crisp and organized and, you know, well articulated.

然后你可能会开一个会，把文档拆开讨论，畅所欲言，这让我想到了这一点。

And then you might have a meeting where you pick it apart and you talk a lot, you know, that's what made me think of that.

是的。

Yeah.

太棒了。

Awesome.

好的。

Okay.

我还想花点时间讨论几件事。

Couple more things I wanna spend some time on.

一是你曾任职于多家非常有趣且成功实现高速增长的公司，比如DoorDash、Uber和Waymo。

One is you've worked at a lot of really interesting successful hyper growth companies, DoorDash, Uber, Waymo.

你也曾在金融行业工作过一段时间。

You're also in finance for a while.

我想挑其中几段经历聊聊，看看你从中获得了哪些经验或教训，或许对大家会有所启发。

I wanna pick on a few of these and just see what's a lesson you took away or what's an experience from that time that might be interesting or helpful to people.

当然。

Sure.

你提到过一些关于DoorDash的事。

So you talk about DoorDash a bit.

你在DoorDash工作期间，最大的收获是什么？

What, what did you take away from your time at DoorDash?

你在那儿看到了什么让你觉得‘哇’的事情吗？

What's something you saw there that either is like, wow.

是那种特别酷、我想在未来尝试的事情，还是他们做得不够好的地方，让我学到要避免什么？

That's a really cool thing I wanna do in the future, or here's something they weren't amazing at that I learned not to try to avoid?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

能够见识不同的地方，汲取你最喜欢的部分，真的非常棒。

It's really amazing to get to see different places and kind of pick the best of what you like.

而且，另一点是，对我而言，这又回到了没有对错之分。

And and also, there's the other thing is it back to, like, for me, it's no right or wrong.

只是差异而已，各有优劣。

It's just, like, differences, like, have pros and cons.

对吧？

Right?

事情总是有两面性。

There's always, two sides of the coin.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我觉得关于Uber和DoorDash有趣的是，首先回到它们的使命和战略。

So, like, what's interesting, I think, about Uber and DoorDash is first, back to the mission and the strategy.

它们有着不同的基因。

They started with different DNA.

对吧？

Right?

比如，Uber最初是使用黑色轿车，你知道的，在机场那些本来没载客的车，但重点更在于乘客。

So, like, you know, Uber started with you know, it was still, like, utilized black cars, so, you know, at the airport that were, like, not doing trips, but it was more about the riders.

对吧？

Right?

不管你怎么看待它的起源故事，你知道，Travis和 whoever，都能在巴黎叫到车。

It was like whatever origin story you believe, you know, Travis and whoever, you know, could get a ride in Paris.

对吧？

Right?

然后它就变成了比出租车更好之类的。

And so then it was about, like, you know, better than taxi and all this stuff.

对吧？

Right?

但它非常以乘客为中心。

But it was very rider centric.

从这个意义上说，它是以消费者为中心的。

It was consumer centric in that sense.

对吧？

Right?

所以，很长一段时间里，我认为优步把这个理念推向了极端。

And so, you know, for a long time, I think Uber kind of took that too far.

你走到了两个极端。

You got to the polarities.

比如，司机就是大宗商品，你知道的，诸如此类的话。

Like, drivers are commodity, you know, blah blah blah.

他们不得不扭转这种局面，开始真正加大对司机端的投入。

And they had to flip that back and start, you know, really investing more on the driver side of the marketplace.

但你看DoorDash，托尼是在他父母的餐厅厨房里长大的，而DoorDash的核心理念是如何帮助小企业更成功？

But you look at DoorDash, and it's like, you know, Tony grew up in his parents' restaurant kitchen, and, you know, the DoorDash thesis was how can we help small businesses be more successful?

配送只是DoorDash这种更宏观目标的首次实现，对吧？

And delivery was just the first instantiation of that sort of meta purpose of DoorDash, right?

因此，他们更注重商户端，而不是消费者端。

And so they're much more merchant centric as opposed to consumer centric.

对吧？

Right?

顺便说一下，Uber最初以打车业务起家，这种以消费者为中心的理念后来也延伸到了Uber Eats，对吧？

By the way, the consumer centricism of Uber that started with rides then translated to Eats, right?

我认为Uber刚做Eats时，想法就是让伦尼能吃到很棒的泰餐、寿司，有更多选择，但选择本身只是为了让伦尼拥有更好的用餐体验。

I think when Uber started with Eats, it was like, well, we just want Lenny to have some great Thai food and, you know, sushi and have some options, but selection is is a means to Lenny having a great, you know, eater experience.

而DoorDash以商家为中心，他们的目标是让这座城市里的每一家泰国餐厅都能成功并入驻DoorDash。

Whereas DoorDash, with their merchant focus, is like, we want every Thai restaurant in this city to be successful and be on DoorDash.

因此，他们追求丰富选择的动机是希望所有商家都能繁荣发展、生存下去。

So their motivation for selection is we want all of the merchants to thrive and survive.

而这恰好也带来了更优质的选择。

And so that happens to give you better selection as a result.

但他们的初衷却截然不同，对吧？

But the motivation was very different, right?

所以我常打个比方：Uber之于Amazon，就像DoorDash之于Shopify，

So the analogy I use is like Uber is to Amazon as DoorDash is to Shopify,

如果这个类比

if that

说得通的话，对吧？

makes sense, right?

Amazon一直以来都更侧重消费者。

Amazon has always been more consumer focused.

Shopify 显然非常注重商家。

Shopify is obviously very merchant focused.

有意思。

Interesting.

顺便说一句，这两种策略都没有对错之分，都是可行的。

And by the way, either of those, again, there's no right or wrong, is a fine strategy.

它们都是很棒的公司。

They're both great companies.

我其实不知道你是否能同时做到这两点，对吧？

And I actually don't know if you could do both, right?

比如，能否同时像 Amazon 和 Shopify 一样，既专注于消费者，又构建所有商家和餐饮科技？也许有足够的资源和时间可以做到，但那样会失去焦点。

Like, is it possible to be Amazon and Shopify to really focus on, you know, consumers and build all the merchant restaurant tech and, you know, maybe with with enough resources and time, but it it that that would lose focus.

所以这里存在一种权衡。

So it's like there's a trade off there.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

在Airbnb，我们总是会思考：我们应该优化房东体验吗？

That's like, at Airbnb, there's always this, should we optimize for hosts?

我们应该优化客人体验吗？

Should we optimize for guests?

而每次都会出现这种情况：这一次，客人最重要。

And there's always this, like, this time, guests are most important.

现在，房东赚的钱更多，你知道的，需要在平台上做出这些权衡决策。

Right right now, hosts more money make, you know, make these trade off decisions in the marketplace.

是的。

Yeah.

所以有趣的是，在Uber，你的观点是Uber始终非常注重司机，而DoorDash从基因上就非常注重商家。

So it's interesting that at Uber, your insight there is Uber is always very writer focused, DoorDash was from its DNA, was very merchant focused.

你还提到，在DoorDash，有一种心态就是先行动，再思考方向。

You also talk about at DoorDash, there's this mentality of just, like, going before figuring out where to go.

这里还有什么更值得借鉴的地方吗？无论是作为警示还是教训？

Is there anything more there that might be helpful either as a cautionary tale or as a lesson?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是一种平衡。

I think it's a it's a balance.

我不想花几周时间反复斟酌该选择哪扇门穿过。

It's back to, like, I don't wanna deliberate and pontificate for weeks on end about which door I should run through.

也不想走向另一个极端，只花三十秒思考该做什么，然后就一味地冲出去。

And I don't wanna go to other extreme and just, like, you know, spend thirty seconds thinking about what to do and just go, go, go.

所以关键是找到那种恰到好处的中间状态。

So it's like finding that that kind of happy medium.

如果非得选一个，我宁愿偏向于冲破一堵墙，而不是什么也不做，因为你至少能从中学到东西，要么取得进展，要么没有。

If I had to pick one, I'd rather bias towards running through a wall than not doing anything because you still get learnings from that, and you either make progress or you don't.

这会给你反馈，然后你可以接着去冲另一堵墙。

And that gives you feedback, and you can run through another wall as a result.

所以我认为最大的失败情况可能是过于犹豫，长时间不采取行动。

So I think the biggest failure case is probably, erring on the other side of, deliberating too long without action.

那Waymo呢？

What about Waymo?

从那段经历中，你学到了什么？是希望更多地去做的，还是希望避免的？

What's something that you took away from that experience as a thing that you wanna do more of or something you wanna try to avoid?

你知道，Waymo，你可能在旧金山见过他们吧？

You know, Waymo is, you know, you've probably seen people in San Francisco, right?

现在他们在旧金山非常普遍，到处都能看到他们的车。

They're they're quite prolific now in terms of, you know, they're all over San Francisco, and you see them all the time.

但我也不确定。

And I'm I'm not sure.

我都想不起来上一次看到一辆自动驾驶汽车是什么时候了。

I can't remember the last time I saw one toad.

所以，我不想说他们已经完全解决了自动驾驶，但他们确实在大规模运行，且现实中的干预极少。

So, you know, they I don't wanna say that, you know, they've solved self driving, but they are, you know, obviously driving at scale with very minimal, at least real world intervention.

你看，单从外观上根本无法判断这些车背后有多少人在默默提供指导或支持。

Like, you know, you can't tell by looking at the cars how many humans behind the scenes might be, you know, helping provide guidance to the car or whatever.

但没错，我觉得Waymo真正了不起的地方在于，他们基本已经解决了自动驾驶的问题，对吧？

But but yeah, I would say what's really interesting about Waymo is they've they've largely solved the self driving piece, right?

但他们确实做到了这一点，对吧？

However, they've done that, right?

而且是在旧金山这样复杂的环境中，你看到他们在雾中、雨中、水洼里行驶，简直让人惊叹，太酷了。

And we and in a complex environment like San Francisco, and they you see them driving in fog and rain and puddles and like, you know, it's like, wow, that's pretty cool.

但我觉得Waymo当时在学习的，也是我想帮他们理解的是，在测试场上开发自动驾驶汽车，和规模化运营成千上万辆车，如何管理、清洁、充电、维护，完全是两个不同的问题。

But I think what what what Waymo was learning, and I was trying to help them learn is that, you know, building a self driving car on a test track is a very different problem statement than scaling a fleet of thousands of cars, and how do you operate them, clean them, charge them, maintain them?

然后，你还要怎么构建一个网约车网络？

And then how do you build a rideshare network?

也就是说，得开发一个App，获取用户，做经典的用户增长，还要考虑平台匹配、定价这些事。

It's like, okay, we got to build an app, and we got to acquire users and do classic growth stuff, and, you know, think about that marketplace and matching and pricing.

而这些，完全是完全不同的技能，对吧？

And you know, those are like very different skills, right?

所以，这就像是在提醒，这些是不同的事情。

And so, it's like, you know, warning that those are different things.

想要招聘这样的人才并围绕这一点建立文化，说实话，可能很难。

And trying to hire for that and build culture around that was probably was was hard, honestly.

你知道，你就像是和宿主生物完全不同的东西。

Know, it's just like you're kind of a different, you know, thing than the host organism.

宿主生物的大部分人都痴迷于感知、规划，以及所有核心的自动驾驶技术。

You know, most of the host organism is obsessed with, like, perception and planning and, you know, kind of all the core autonomy pieces.

而如果你是商业化团队的人，你会想：我要靠这个东西赚钱。

And you're like, if the commercialization people are there, it's like, well, I'm gonna make money with this thing.

所以我认为，这正是一个例子，说明你对Waymo的整体愿景是打造Waymo One。

And so I think, you know, it's that that's an example where, like, your overall vision with, say, Waymo is is to build Waymo One.

你知道，你必须意识到，它远不止是一个东西。

You know, it's like you gotta just be mindful that it's more than just one.

它包含多个支柱。

There's multiple pillars of that.

对吧？

Right?

还有自动驾驶这一块。

There's the self driving piece.

还有大规模部署车辆、融资、运营车队、获取需求、让乘客上车等等。

There's, you know, getting a lot of cars at scale, financing them, operating the fleet, getting the demand, filling the cars with people.

对吧？

Right?

然后，所有这些都得整合在一起。

And then, you know, it has to all come together.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

你担任Waymo自动驾驶打车商业化产品的负责人，这真是太有趣了，现在我们终于绕回了原点。

It's so interesting that you were, your your title is lead product for commercialization of autonomous autonomous ride hailing at Waymo, and now we've come full circle.

我们现在在Uber了。

We're at Uber.

从某种意义上说，这将成为人们呼叫Waymo的方式。

It's that's gonna be, in a sense, the way that people call Waymo.

所以你见证了这一领域的两个方面，这真的很有意思。

And so it's so interesting that you've seen both sides of this.

是的。

Yeah.

好吧，我们拭目以待会发生什么。

Well, we'll we'll see what happens.

我觉得，你知道，嗯。

I think, you know, the yeah.

Uber在剥离自动驾驶技术部门（Advanced Technologies Group）后，退出了自动驾驶业务，对吧？

Uber got out of the autonomy business, right, when it divested Autonomous Technologies Group Advanced Technologies Group.

而现在，我们的明确策略是做一个聚合平台，对吧？

And right now, you know, our kind of stated, you know, strategy is to be an aggregator, right?

所以我们正在与Waymo、Cruise、Motional以及中国其他的公司合作。

So it's like we are partnering with Waymo, with Cruise, Motional, others in China, etcetera.

然后，我们的想法是让平台上的每一辆车都接入，真的如此。

And then, you know, the idea is to have every vehicle on the platform, really, right?

不管它是不是自动驾驶的。

It's autonomous or not.

然后，利用平台的力量。

And then, yeah, use the power of the platform.

我们拥有庞大的需求基础。

We have this big demand base.

我们有大量的乘客。

We have a lot of riders.

所以我认为，你看到的是，Weimoto和其他公司都在想：好吧，既然我们已经开发出了自动驾驶技术，那么接下来我们如何实现盈利呢？

And so I think, you know, what you're seeing is, you know, Weimoto and others are like, okay, now that we've developed autonomy, you know, what's the path like to, you know, profitability for us, right?

所以他们可以独自发展，尝试构建一个网约车网络。

And so they can go it alone and try to build a rideshare network.

而Weimoto正在通过Weimoto One做这件事。

And, you know, Weimoto is doing that with Weimoto One.

但你知道，这可能需要相当长的时间。

And but, you know, it might it turns out it takes a while.

你知道，这挺有趣的。

You know, it's funny.

我觉得工程师们也总是对别人为什么花这么长时间解决工程问题感到怀疑。

People I feel like engineers too are always, like, skeptical of why other people's engineering problems take so much work.

对吧？

Right?

比如，Waymo的工程师可能会想，Uber真有那么多成千上万的工程师吗？

Like, you know, there'd be engineers at Waymo that'd be like, does Uber have so many thousands of engineers?

开发一个网约车应用能有多难？

How hard can it be to build a rideshare app?

但你知道，当你审视优步成功的原因时，我们过去十年不断完善的，首先是前面提到的市场平台技术，还有我们如何管理庞大的乘客群体，提供乘客支持、司机支持、物流服务，以及帮助资助电动汽车、与监管机构和城市合作，确保我们拥有安全且便捷的上下车点，诸如此类，不一而足。

But, you know, when you look at what made Uber successful, you know, what we've been perfecting for the last decade, a, the marketplace tech that I alluded to earlier, but also, yeah, like how we manage a large rider base and doing rider support and driver support and logistics and, you know, all of the, you know, helping finance electric vehicles and working with regulators and cities and making sure we have safe and accessible pickup points and, like, so on and on and on.

对吧？

Right?

就像你不知道，这些只是冰山一角，当你想着‘我只要叫个网约车就行了’的时候，根本不会意识到这些背后的工作量。

And it's like, you know, those are all the the depth of the iceberg that you don't really realize or think of when you're like, oh, I can just pull the ride share up.

对吧？

Right?

你知道吗？

You know?

特斯拉发布了他们的Figma设计和一些财报，所有人都炸了。

Tesla publishes their Figma design and some, you know, earnings report, and everyone goes crazy.

哇哦。

Like, wow.

好吧。

Okay.