2026年科技从业者对AI的真实感受 | 年度AI情绪调查（诺阿·塞加尔）

这工作不适合你。

They ain't for you.

天哪。

My god.

这个结论挺有意思的，也是这项研究的一部分。

What an interesting takeaway and and part of this research.

大家看着这张图，肯定都在想，千万别学我，别干这行。

So I'm just looking at this chart just as people are seeing this, just like nobody everyone's like, nope, don't do what I do.

挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

就是说，咱们待会儿会聊到创始人是科技圈里最开心的人，但说实话，这工作压力真的很大，也挺难的。

Like, you know, we're gonna talk about how founders are the happiest people in tech, but still, it's like a very stressful hard job.

我挺惊讶的，没想到他们的推荐度居然是最低的。

I'm surprised it's like I'm surprised it's the least.

按理说，很多创始人都会觉得这是最疯狂、最艰难的工作吧。

Like, you would think many founders would be like, this is the craziest, gnarliest job.

你不该这么做。

You should not do this.

这事儿太糟了。

It sucks.

但有意思的是，他们虽然最不开心，却也最不太会推荐别人这么做。

But it's interesting they're the least unhappy they're the least least likely to recommend.

现在有一种很强的说法，认为当创始人从未有过这么好的时机。

There's a strong narrative right now that there's never been a better time to be a founder.

你做东西时不再那么依赖别人了。

You're a lot less reliant on other people to build.

关于单打独斗的创业者，或者双人创业的讨论特别多。

There's a ton of conversations around the solopreneur or the duopreneur.

对吧？

Right?

所以现在到处都在说，这正是当创始人的黄金时代。

So there's a ton of conversations around how this is the era to be a founder.

但那些 currently 在这个角色上的人，并不怎么热衷于推荐给别人。

And yet people who are currently in that role aren't very excited about recommending it to other people.

这背后还有另一层原因：职位越低，越不太愿意推荐自己的岗位。

There's also another layer to this, which is as you go down in seniority, you're less likely to recommend your role.

高管、副总裁，甚至总监，比普通员工更可能推荐自己的职位。

So execs, VPs, maybe even directors are sort of more likely to recommend their role than people who are ICs.

这点挺有意思的。

That's an interesting one.

我见过各种各样的解释。

I've seen all sorts of explanations for that.

比如有一种说法是，金字塔顶端的副总裁们从AI里获益更多，因为他们能借助AI处理大量信息和知识，工作轻松了不少。

One explanation for example is that at the top of the pyramid VPs are benefiting more from AI because they're getting all of this stream of information and knowledge being processed by AI, making their jobs a lot easier.

而普通员工却得各自埋头，忙着在公司内部开发一个个微型SaaS产品。

Whereas ICs are each scrambling to build all of these micro SaaS products within the companies they work for.

没人清楚别人到底在做什么。

No one knows what anyone else is doing.

有很多重复劳动。

There's lots of duplicative work.

现在做产品容易多了，但维护起来却难多了。

It's a lot easier to build products these days, but a lot harder to maintain them.

所以我感觉很多个体贡献者都有种感觉，就是踩着油门却在空挡，对吧？

And so I think a lot of ICs are feeling like there's a saying, full gas on neutral, right?

就像你把油门踩到底，但车子挂的是空挡。

Like you're pushing the pedal to the metal in your car, but you're in neutral gear.

结果哪儿也去不了。

You're not going anywhere.

我觉得现在很多个体贡献者对这些技术就是这种感觉。

I think that that's the feeling that a lot of ICs are having these days with these technologies.

我一直在不停地做东西，但就是感觉不到自己真正产生了影响。

Like I keep building these things, but I'm not having the impact I want.

别人都在做，但乱七八糟的，搞不清楚方向，真不值得了。

Everyone else is building to there's lots of confusion, and it's just not worth it anymore.

现在还流行一种说法，别让自己沦为永久的底层群体。

There's, like, this interesting also trend this you know, there's this whole meme of don't become part of the permanent underclass.

我觉得这种思路其实贯穿了整个讨论。

And I feel like there's like a few of these threads throughout this.

我就像是个产品经理，但现在已经太晚了。

And here it's like, okay, I'm like a PM, but like it's too late.

别走这条路了。

Don't do this.

这个职位的门正在关上。

Like the door is closing for this role.

形势在变。

Things are changing.

这不光是产品经理的问题。

And that's that's not just PM.

每个岗位都一样。

It's every role.

大家都觉得，也许我该换个方向了。

Everyone's just like, maybe I should do something else.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意，而且我觉得这挺让人遗憾的。

I would agree with that, and I think it's it's unfortunate.

过去，人们总被鼓励去学计算机，学编程。

I I feel like in the past, people were pushed to CS, to learn to code.

作为家长，现在我自己也不太知道该建议孩子做什么了。

I know that these days for myself as a parent, you know, I don't know what to tell my kids to do anymore.

我都不确定几年后还能有哪些岗位等着他们。

I'm not sure what roles will be there for them in just a few years.

现在这时代真是让人摸不着头脑。

These are very confusing times.

我觉得科技行业的员工也都有同样的感受。

And I think tech employees are feeling that as well.

他们根本不清楚自己未来会面临什么情况。

They don't understand what's in line for them in the future.

所以我们肯定没法跟别人推荐说，嘿，五年后这行肯定好得很。

So we certainly don't know to recommend to others like, yeah, you know, in five years, it's gonna be great.

那不如去搞塑料行业吧。

Get into plastics.

对。

Yeah.

好像谁都不知道该咋办。

It's like no one knows.

咱们先退一步看。

It's just like just like zoom out for a moment.

现在的变化真的太大了，简直让人难以置信。

It's just it's so insane how much change we're living through right now.

这种结果放在一两年前，我们根本想都不敢想。

We would not have like, this is not a result we would have seen a year or two ago.

这简直太不稳定、太不确定了。

This is like, so unstable and uncertain.

我觉得这对科技行业的人来说也是全新的体验。

And this is very new for people in tech, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

我习惯用生活中其他领域的比喻或例子来解释这些事。

I like to use certain metaphors or all sorts of examples from other areas in my life to explain these things.

我记得你以前采访过认知公司（Cognition）的联合创始人兼首席执行官斯科特·吴。

So I believe you spoke in the past to Scott Wu, the co founder and CEO of Cognition.

德文。

Devin.

他们就是开发德文的团队。

And they are the makers of Devin.

我记得他介绍这个产品时，提到过一个阶梯式的演进过程。

And I recall that when he described the product, he talks about this ladder that the product progressed on.

它从一个高中生的编程爱好者，一路成长为大学实习生，再变成初级工程师。

It went from a high school CS student to a college intern, to a junior engineer.

到现在，大概已经到了高级工程师或者资深工程师的水平。

And at this point, probably a senior or a staff level engineer.

我觉得我们都在看着这项技术一级一级往上爬，不断进步。

I would say that we are all watching this technology climb the rungs of this ladder and advance.

而我们感觉，这技术正在把脚下的梯子一节一节抽走。

And we feel like the technology is pulling those rungs from under us.

所以，我们爬得越高，职业安全感就越强，心里就越踏实。

And so the further we've gone up the ladder, the better we feel about our careers and the more stability we have.

但要是你还在梯子底下，那些梯子的横档就全在你脚下被抽掉了。

But the lower we are on that ladder, those rungs getting pulled under our feet.

所以也不难理解，我们不会建议任何人去爬这架梯子——因为横档都在消失。

And so it makes also sense that we wouldn't recommend, you know, being on that ladder to anyone else because the rungs are disappearing.

天啊，这些话题太多了，但我先挑几点说说，然后咱们接着看下一个要点。

Man, there's so much to talk about with all these, but let me point out a couple things as I look at this and then we can move on to the next takeaway.

其中一点挺有意思的，销售和项目经理这两个岗位，在‘不建议入行’的选项里算是情况最好的了，这确实挺让人意外的。

One is just like, you know, it's interesting that sales and PM are the least bad at don't get into this role, like that's interesting.

我之前真没料到会是这样。

I did not, I wouldn't have expected that.

销售人员对未来的职业前景没那么焦虑，项目经理也是。

Sales people, not as scared about the future of their role PM.

挺有意思的。

Interesting.

这里的观众真不少。

That's a big audience here.

没那么紧张了。

Not as scared.

就像你刚才说的，研究设计这块，大多数人都不这么做。

As you said, research design, the most don't do this.

作为研究人员，你刚才稍微提了一下，但我挺好奇的，看到这个结果你是什么感觉？

As a researcher, you touched on this a little bit, but I'm just curious, how does it feel seeing this result?

这

It's

很难受。

tough.

多年来，研究界一直面临很多担忧、创伤和焦虑，比如在决策层没有话语权、找不到工作的意义，还有像研究民主化这类问题——别人接手我们的工作，甚至最终取代我们。

I think the research community has lived with a lot of concerns and trauma and anxiety over the years around having a seat at the table, around finding meaning in our work, around topics like the democratization of research and other people taking on our roles and eventually replacing us.

看到这样的结果，确实让人很痛心。

It definitely hurts a lot to see this.

我认为，研究在未来产品开发中必须扮演一个非常重要的角色。

I think there's a very important role that research needs to play in the future of building products.

随着技术不断进步，我们反而应该更加谨慎地思考自己所构建的东西，而不是越来越轻率。

I think that as this technology progressive, we should become even more thoughtful about what we built rather than less thoughtful.

我听过这样的说法：做起来太便宜了，干脆直接做一千个原型，看看哪个能行。

I've heard the narratives around, it's so cheap to build, just build a thousand prototypes and see what works.

你最近应该也听人说过类似的话。

I think you've heard this in a recent conversation as well.

我觉得这样下去，大家只会更加筋疲力尽。

I would suggest that we're just gonna get even more burnt out that way.

就我个人而言，我不推荐这种做法。

I would not recommend that approach personally.

我认为研究和设计在提升可能性的上限方面都扮演着至关重要的角色。

I think research has a very and design has a very important part to play in raising the ceiling of what's possible.

而人工智能主要是在拉低门槛，却没把上限提上去。

Whereas AI has mostly lowered the bar, but it hasn't raised the ceiling.

我也能理解，为什么产品经理虽然自己未必想推荐这份工作，却更愿意建议别人去做——这其实说得通。

And I can also tell you that PMs being somewhat more likely to recommend their roles, even though they're not likely to recommend their roles does actually make sense to me.

我觉得这更像一个通才型的角色，跟其他那些岗位不太一样。

It's more of a generalist role I would claim than some of these other roles.

如果问我，AI时代正是通才的时代。

And this is the era of the generalist if you would ask me the AI era.

最让我意外的是销售和市场岗位，因为如果我们真处在某种SaaS寒冬里——虽然我个人不这么认为，但确实有人这么说——那销售和市场的人不该对推荐自己的岗位感到乐观才对。

I'm the most surprised by sales and go to market because if we are indeed in some sort of SaaS apocalypse, which I don't personally believe we are, but it's been said, then I don't think sales and go to market people should be feeling too great about recommending their roles.

但也许他们觉得，现阶段销售工作还是没法交给AI来做。

But but maybe they believe that, you know, sales at this point cannot be done by AI.

是的。

Yeah.

我这儿有太多想聊的了。

There's just like so much I wanna talk about here.

这里有个非常重要的点我要说清楚：这并不意味着设计或研究工作会消失。

It's important to note, this is a very important note that I'm going say here, this doesn't mean design is going away or research is going away.

这只是说，目前从事这些岗位的人，心里的想法是‘别这么做’。

This is just saying people in that role right now, the narrative in their head is don't do this.

这不代表这些工作就完了，可能只是我们一直听到的那些炒作而已。

Does not mean this is over because it could just be all this hype that we keep hearing.

说实话，我也曾通过邀请各种嘉宾，无意中助长了这种氛围。

Like, you know, I'm guilty of adding to it from various guests.

但归根结底，这反映的只是人们当下的真实感受。

But, you know, this may this is just how people feel.

这并不意味着事情就是这样的。

Doesn't mean this is what's happening.

完全正确。

A 100%.

这个科技领域独特的项目，核心就在于人们的感受。

This entire unique project in tech is all about how people feel.

它跟科技行业实际的工作状况没关系。

It's not about the realities of working in tech.

它讲的就是人的情绪，人们内心的感受。

It's it's about people's emotions, about how people feel.

我真的觉得，除了我们，没人能像这样把这些情绪表达出来。

I really do think no one other than us has really captured these emotions in the way that we have.

不过，这确实是个很好的提醒。

But, yeah, it's a great reminder.

这并不是现实的写照。

This is not an image of reality.

这反映的是当前科技行业里人们的真实感受。

This is an image of how people are feeling in tech right now.

我们还想再强调一个关键数据点。

Another quick data point that we wanna make sure to communicate here.

你刚才提到过这一点，但可能还没让大伙儿真正明白：我们问的是，你会推荐别人来从事你的这份工作吗？

You touched on this, but I don't know if you actually made this as as clear to people as it should be is so this is looking at would you recommend people get into my role?

我们还问了另一个问题：你对自己目前的角色感觉如何？

We also asked just how are you feeling about your role?

就是，你对自己的工作满意吗？

Like, are you happy being in this role?

结果是：我目前过得还行。

And the result there was I'm actually doing okay.

我很满意。

I'm happy.

我是产品经理。

I'm a PM.

我很开心自己是个设计研究员。

I'm happy a designer researcher.

就像你说的，表面看水温挺合适，但别下水。

So as you said, it's this kind of like the water's fine, but don't get in.

咱们再聊聊这点，确保大伙儿都明白。

Talk a little bit about that just to make sure that point is clear.

当我们问人们，他们是否喜欢自己的工作时——

When we ask people things like, are they enjoying their their job?

就像之前说的，大多数人还是回答，总体来说是的。

As we talked about earlier, most people said that overall, yes.

他们在岗位上过得挺开心的。

They're having fun in their role.

我觉得问题在于，大家现在的乐观情绪比以前低多了，对吧？

I think what's going on here is that, again, are lacking optimism compared to what they were, right?

乐观情绪确实下滑了。

Optimism has gone down.

现在人们对自己的职位感受，和他们职业生涯所取得的成就、在职业阶梯上的位置，跟他们预测一年、三年、五年后会怎样，这两者之间差距很大。

So there's a big difference between how people are feeling now about their role given what they've achieved in their careers and where they are on the ladder compared to what they're extrapolating might happen in a year, in three years, in five years.

而人们预测的未来，明显比他们当前的实际体验要悲观得多。

And what people are extrapolating might happen is clearly more negative than their current experiences.

所以总的来说，我们这个行业还算不错。

So yeah, I mean, all in all, we're doing okay as an industry.

大家确实享受这份工作。

We're enjoying.

也在尝试各种新东西。

We're trying new things.

我们正经历一场工作方式上的彻底变革。

We're experiencing a complete paradigm shift in how we work.

这种变化一开始挺有意思的，但很多人觉得，这方向似乎不太对头。

And that's fun for a while, but it it seems like people feel like this is not going in the best of directions.

当然，我希望我们都想错了。

And, of course, I hope we're all wrong.

我希望我们都想错了。

I hope we're all wrong.

我也是。

Me too.

我天生乐观，觉得一切都会好起来的。

As a natural optimist, I'm like, it's gonna be alright.

咱们走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

回头见。

I'll see you

下一个乐观派也是你。

next natural optimist too.

我意识到，到目前为止，我们还没怎么处在乐观的状态，所以希望我们也能慢慢进入那种心态。

And I'm realizing, like, so far, we haven't been in too much of optimism mode, so I hope we manage to get to some of that as well.

本集由Mercury赞助播出，这是一家深受超过30万创业者喜爱的全新银行服务，现在还推出了Command功能。

This episode is brought to you by Mercury, radically different banking loved by over 300,000 entrepreneurs, and now with Command.

我已经是Mercury的客户六年多了。

I've been a customer of Mercury's for over six years.

我从来没想过要换银行。

I have never once thought about leaving.

Mercury就像是由产品专家，而不是银行职员打造出来的银行服务。

Mercury is basically what happens when banking is built by product people, not by bankers.

他们让开票、转账、给团队成员设置虚拟卡片变得特别简单，甚至可以说很有趣。

They make it so easy, dare I say fun, to send invoices, move money around, set up virtual cards for folks on my team.

你的银行有API、原生命令行工具，或者支持AI的MCP服务器吗？

Does your bank have an API, a terminal native CLI, or an AI ready MCP server?

我觉得没有。

I don't think so.

最近，他们推出了Command，一个直接内嵌在Mercury里的对话式界面，相当于你的财务助手。

And just recently, they launched Command, a conversational interface built directly into Mercury, which acts as your financial operator.

我一直在用Command来转账，看看自己花得最多的是哪些类别，分析现金流，就在今天，我还用它查了过去一年从某个赞助商那里赚了多少钱。

I've been using Command to transfer money around to figure out what categories I've been spending the most money in, analyze my cash flows, and just today, I used it to find out how much I've made from a specific sponsor over the past year.

我只要问一句：过去一年我从X那里赚了多少钱？

I just ask, how much have I made from X over the past year?

十秒钟后，答案就出来了。

Ten seconds later I have an answer.

这简直太厉害了。

It is so freaking cool.

访问 mercury.com 了解更多，并在线几分钟内完成申请。

Visit mercury.com to learn more and apply online in minutes.

Mercury 是一家金融科技公司，银行业务由 Choice Financial Group 和 Column N.A. 成员提供，受 FDIC 保障。

Mercury is a fintech company not an FDIC insured bank, banking services provided through Choice Financial Group and column NA Members FDIC.

我们来聊聊第四点。

Let's talk about takeaway four.

我看了生产力、质量，还有人工智能带来的各种好处。

Looked at productivity, looked at quality, looked at just the kind of the upside of AI.

这个点让我特别感兴趣。

This was a very interesting one to me.

去年我们做了一项关于人工智能对生产力和工作质量影响的调查，当时人们普遍对这项技术持乐观态度，认为它不仅让工作更高效，

In last year's survey that we did on the impact of AI specifically on productivity and quality, people were rather bullish about the technology and how much better it makes them, not

而且更

just more

出色。

efficient, but better.

而这次，我们发现了一些有意思的结果。

And this time around, we saw some interesting findings.

我先说这一点。

Let me start with this.

这算是最初的观察，但它最终导向的结果，跟我原本预想的完全不一样。

And this is sort of the initial view but it leads to something very different than I thought would happen.

当我们直接问：你在工作中变得有多好？

When we simply ask the question, how much better are you at your job?

对于人工智能，答案毫无疑问是肯定的。

To AI Unequivocally the answer was yes.

你可以看到，97.2%的人表示AI让他们的工作表现更好，接近一半的人甚至说AI让他们变得明显或极其出色。

You can see here that 97.2 of people are saying that AI is making them better at their job and close to 50% of people are saying that AI is making them very much or extremely better at their job.

所以很明显，无论你怎么理解‘更好’——我们稍后会细说——大家都觉得AI确实产生了影响。

So it's very clear that high level, however you interpret better, which we'll get to in a second, people feel like AI has had an impact.

但当你深入探究这句话的真正含义，往下看一层，就会发现‘做得更好’其实和你想象的完全不一样。

But when you dive deeper into what that means and you go below the surface level as you can see here, we're doing better actually means something rather different than what you might think.

当我听到人们说他们‘做得更好’时，我原本以为是字面意思。

So when I heard people say they're doing better, I thought they meant that literally.

我以为是他们的工作质量提升了，AI帮助他们做出了更优质的结果。

I thought the quality of their work was better, that AI was contributing to better quality of work.

但事实上，情况恰恰相反。

In fact, it's the exact opposite.

我们从受访者那里听到了两个令人担忧的发现。

What we heard from people were two concerning things.

第一个是：我能更快地完成更多任务，但质量并没有提升。

The first is that I can do more faster, but not better.

所以，AI实际上拉低了工作成果的底线，让人能产出比以往多得多的内容——不管是代码提交、产品文档、研究项目还是原型，但这些成果的质量并没有提升。

So again, AI has sort of lowered the floor of what's possible and enabled people to put out a lot more work than they ever have before, whatever that work is, whether it's PRs, PRDs, research projects, prototypes, but they're not the output isn't of higher quality.

更令人担忧的是，我们听到的深层代价，其实是AI对思考和判断力的侵蚀。

And perhaps the even more concerning effect, which we heard about, the the deeper cost of all of this is the cost of using AI on thinking and judgment.

人们直接跟我们说：我的脑子正在退化。

People essentially told us my brain is rotting.

我的工作感觉变差了。

My work feels worse.

这跟最近我听说的一个现象有关，叫认知退化吗？

And this is related to phenomenon I've heard about recently, is it cognitive rot?

我听到的大概是这样一种情况：你一看见AI生成的初步结果，就下意识地接受了。

I think is what I've heard basically this phenomenon where you sort of see the initial output of an AI model and you sort of just accept it.

你不再去仔细审视它。

You don't apply your judgment to it.

你不再动脑去分析它，慢慢地，你对工作的参与感、主动性，就像被腐蚀一样逐渐瓦解了。

You don't apply your thinking to it, And you slowly let your mind, your involvement in your work, your agency sort of collapse into this rotting state, so to speak.

没错。

This yeah.

这个观点真有意思。

This is such an interesting takeaway.

这其实是个积极的一面。

Just, like, this is a positive.

这里面有积极的因素。

There's a positive note to this.

正如你所说，我正在看这些数据。

As you said, I'm looking at the numbers here.

82%的人表示，AI让他们的工作能力至少有所提升，近一半的人甚至说提升非常明显或极大，这可能和之前提到的那种分化现象有关。

82% of people say AI is making them at least moderately better at their job, and nearly 50% say very much or extremely better, which may correlate with that original, just this bifurcation.

那些觉得AI提升了自己工作能力的人，大概也是最有干劲的一群人。

Like, the people that feel like AI is making them better at their job, probably the people feel, like, most energized.

所以，不管这是否真实，我觉得还是有几个让人欣慰的点。

So whether it's true or not so I think there's a couple of happy points.

第一点，人们觉得AI让他们的工作能力提升了。

That's one, people feel AI is making them better.

他们确实有这种感觉。

They feel that.

所以这一点是真实的，哪怕实际情况可能并非如此。

So that's, you know, that's real, even if it may not be.

同时，我觉得他们也有自知之明。

And at the same time, I think they're self aware.

质量确实是个问题。

The quality is an issue.

而且我自己的编程能力和写战略文档的能力，可能也在退化。

And also I'm just maybe my I'm atrophying in my ability to say code or write strategy docs.

至少人们意识到这种情况正在发生，而不是一味觉得自己表现得特别出色。

So at least people are self aware that this is happening, not just I'm killing it.

我所有的东西都比以前更高质量，好太多了。

All my stuff is higher quality and it's much better than ever.

他们确实有自知之明，但话说回来，我作为认证教练，觉得光有自知之明还不够，还得采取行动。

They are self aware, but, you know, among other things, I'm a certified coach and I would suggest that beyond being self aware, we need to act Mhmm.

真的要付诸行动。

On this.

对于这种现象，我可以给出好几个解释。

There are several explanations I could give to this phenomenon.

其中一个可能是，人们对AI的蜜月期已经结束了。

One of them might be that the honeymoon period with AI is over.

我们以前觉得它完美无缺，简直是自切片面包以来最棒的发明，就是那种美国人常说的话。

You know, we thought it was perfect and, you know, the best thing that ever happened to us since sliced bread or whatever typical Americans say.

但现在我们明白了，它还没到那个地步。

But we've realized it's not quite there yet.

而且，没错，现在的模型其实是历史上最差的。

And, yes, the models are the worst they're ever gonna be.

它们只会越来越好，但离真正能让我们说‘我的工作质量大幅提升，都不用我怎么操心了’，还差得远呢。

They're only getting better, but there's still so much they need to get better before we can really say, yeah, like, my work is just so much better, and I don't need to be as involved with it.

你请了西蒙·威利森来做客，聊到大家担心技能退化，觉得自己学得不够，我们需要有意识地抵制这种趋势，别让大脑慢慢生锈。

You had Simon Willison on this show talking about how people are worried about skill atrophy, that they're not learning enough and that we need to be consciously resistant to this and not let ourselves cognitively rot.

我觉得这些数据表明，我们在这场对抗中稍微有点落了下风。

And I think this data suggests that we're losing that fight a little bit.

我们需要多花点精力去对抗这种认知退化，确保随着门槛不断提高、技术不断演进，我们能通过刻意练习、深度思考和独立判断来应对。

Need to put a little bit more energy into it, into fighting this cognitive rot that we're feeling and to make sure that as the bar continues to rise and this technology continues to evolve, that we're meeting that with deliberate practice, deliberate thinking, deliberate judgment.

大家在这方面真的做得不够好。

People are just so bad at that.

就像，如果有个一键搞定按钮，我肯定按下去。

Just like, if I have an easy button, I will press it.

我不行。

I no.

我知道不该吃，但我就是忍不住要吃那些多力多滋。

I shouldn't, but I'm just gonna gonna eat those Doritos.

所以我觉得这就是大家面临的挑战。

So that's the challenge, I think, for people.

就是因为有捷径可走，所以根本很难抗拒。

It's just like because you could do it the easy way, it's so hard to resist.

这又回到了那个不断抬高的门槛，大家就这么被卷进来了。

And that connects again to this ladder that's being raised that people are just getting into this stuff.

他们非得逼自己走难的路，才能真正学会怎么做。

It's just, they have to make themselves do it the hard way to learn how to do it for real.

我特别想知道，刚入行的年轻人是怎么学编程、写代码评审、从零开始写产品需求文档的——是靠自己动手，还是直接去问Claude。

And I'm really curious how that plays out with junior folks in the market learning how to actually code, how to do peer writing, how to write a PRD from scratch with your fingers versus talking to Claude about it.

是的。

Yeah.

这话题实在有太多可说的了。

There's so much to say here.

我觉得，人们有时候反而错过了那种‘觉得自己很聪明’的感觉。

Think the the more I think people miss feeling smart sometimes.

你懂的。

You know?

我以前还真觉得自己挺聪明的。

I think I I thought once upon a time about myself that I'm smart.

但后来你接触到这些模型，尤其是最近刚发布的 Fable Five，你就再也感觉不到自己有多聪明了。

And then you encounter these models, most recently Fable five that just came out for the second time, and you don't feel that smart anymore.

你那种曾经的掌控感和自信，慢慢就消失了。

You sort of lose the sense of self efficacy you used to have.

还有一点是，每次你让 AI 替你解决问题、跨过难关，它其实悄悄抬高了你对自我能力的期待值。

And the second thing to say about this is that every time you, you not the AI solve a problem and get over a barrier, it increases, it raises your baseline of self efficacy, of self confidence, of self belief.

可每当你把任务全丢给 AI，这个期待值就被拉低了，你的思考能力和判断力也在跟着退化，这问题可不小。

And every time you offload that to your favorite AI model, you're lowering that baseline and your thinking and your judgment is watching, and that's a serious problem.

所以，也许我们可以用这份报告里的一句话来总结，我特别喜欢这句话：生产力的提升是真实的，但工作质量和个人的敏锐度却在下滑。

So maybe just wrap up this takeaway, the sentence used in this report I love, I'll just read, the productivity gains are real, but the quality of the work and the sharpness of the person producing it are taking a hit.

没错。

Absolutely.

我们最后或许会谈到这点，但确实得盯紧这个趋势，好好找回自己的底气。

And maybe we'll get to this in the end, but we should keep a close eye on this and really try to work on our own self efficacy.

我们需要对人进行一些评估。

We need, like, evals for people.

人类是不是正在变成被评估的对象？

Like, are humans becoming Evals for people.

哦，我明白了。

Oh, I get it.

那我们就来这么做吧。

Let's let's do that.

你的聪明才智。

Your smartness.

好的。

Okay.

我们来聊聊第五点收获吧，我觉得这一点特别有意思。

Let's talk about takeaway number five, which I also thought was extremely interesting.

天哪。

My god.

这里面有太多有意思的东西了。

So much so much interesting in this.

我们来聊聊第五个要点。

Let's talk about the fifth takeaway.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得我们这个圈子里现在最主流的说法就是害怕被取代。

So I think the dominant narrative right now in in our community is is the fear of being replaced.

就像我们之前说的，很多科技行业的人确实担心自己会被取代，担心会被裁员。

And as we talked about, a lot of people in tech do fear and are worried that they're going to be replaced, that they're going to be laid off.

所以，如果我们问一个问题，选项里有‘我担心会被AI取代而丢掉工作’，那这个选项的得票率应该会很高。

And so it would make sense that if we had a question and one of the options to respond to that question were, I'm worried about losing my job to AI, that it would rank fairly high.

但当我们看这张幻灯片，看人们被问到‘你现在最担心什么？’的时候。

But when we look at this slide and when we look at when people are asked, you know, what are your concerns and what's bothering you right now?

在科技行业，你最害怕的是什么？

What what are you afraid of in tech?

被AI取代其实在这份清单里排倒数第二。

Losing my job to AI is actually second to last on that list.

真正跃居榜首的是，大家期望用同样的薪水做更多的事。

And instead, what we saw rise up to the top is the expectation to do more for the same pay.

我们每个人都像被不断挤压，越压越紧，要在更短的时间内完成更多任务，却拿同样的报酬。

It's almost as if we're we're all feeling like we're being squeezed and squeezed and squeezed some more to accomplish more things in less time for the same pay.

因此，过度劳累的担忧才是最突出的恐惧，紧随其后的是第二点——工作节奏已经变得难以承受。

And so that fear of being overworked is by far the dominant fear alongside the second item in this list, which is that the pace is becoming unsustainable.

所谓节奏，指的是工作的速度和对产出量的期待——每天都要交出多少成果，还有技术更新的速度，逼着你花大量时间去学新模型、新框架、新用法，而这自然挤占了你专注核心工作的宝贵时间。

And by pace, I mean both the pace of the work and the expectation of work velocity, just how much you have to put out a day, every single day, and the pace of change of the technology, which requires you to invest a significant amount of time in learning the new model, the new framework, the new way to use the technology, which of course takes away from your core focused working time.

这简直是个恶性循环，让你根本感觉不到自己在做任何有意义的事。

So it's sort of an evil downward spiral that really prevents you from feeling like you're able to accomplish anything of of meaning.

你只会觉得精疲力尽，压力山大。

You just feel very overworked, very tired.

我相信在座的每一位都完全能理解你刚才说的这些。

I'm confident everybody listening understands exactly what you're describing here.

这显然跟我们之前提到的倦怠问题直接相关。

Obviously connects to that burnout point we made earlier.

我用你帖子里的另一段话来总结一下。

I'll close this takeaway with another quick read from your post.

你的文笔真的太棒了，诺亚。

You're such an amazing writer, Noam.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我特别喜欢读你总结的学习心得，我就念这一段。

I love I love reading your your summaries of of what you learned, so I'll just read this.

AI带来的效率提升，全被转化成了新的期望。

The speed AI unlocked got plowed straight back into expectations.

每一轮进步都成了新的标准，而被迫达到这些标准的人，已经快喘不过气了。

Every game becomes a new baseline, and the people expected to hit it are running out of room to breathe.

我们什么时候能聊到这期里比较积极的部分呢？

When we can get to the optimistic parts of this of this episode.

也许我们会找到些什么。

Maybe we'll find something.

好的。

Okay.

咱们聊聊两个基本点吧，这部分还带点乐观色彩。

Let's talk about two basics, which has a a little bit of optimism.

是的。

Oh, yeah.

好。

Okay.

很多人心里其实都很矛盾。

A lot of ambivalence is

对。

Yeah.

关键在于

The way to

把它放好。

put it.

对。

Yeah.

我之前提到过这一点。

I I mentioned this earlier.

这个行业确实处于一种矛盾的状态。

The industry is definitely in a state of ambivalence.

我们试图捕捉大家现在在工作中感受到的各种情绪。

We we try to capture all of the emotions that people are feeling at work right now.

很高兴告诉大家，从这儿可以看到，排名前两位的情绪都是积极的，分别是好奇和兴奋。

And I am happy to report, as you can see here, that the top two emotions are positive emotions, curiosity, and excitement.

这太棒了。

And that's wonderful.

这确实让人乐观。

That is optimistic.

很高兴听到是这样。

I'm glad that's the case.

人们说他们对这项技术、它的能力，以及能实现的事情感到兴奋。

People are sharing that they're excited about the technology, about the capabilities, about what they're able to achieve.

他们对未来的可能性充满好奇，也想知道随着这些模型和系统不断演进，自己还能做些什么。

They're feeling curious about what the future might bring and what else they could do as these models and systems continue to evolve.

这真不错。

So that's wonderful.

但往下看这份清单，你会发现情绪其实很复杂，有正面的，也有负面的，还有中性的。

But as you go down this list, you can see that there is this very interesting mix of positive, negative, and neutral emotions.

人们还感到压力很大。

People are also feeling overwhelmed.

人们也感到矛盾。

People are feeling conflicted.

在某些方面，人们对AI帮他们卸下了一些负担感到如释重负。

People are feeling relieved in certain ways about, you know, what AI has taken from them in a in a good sense.

你知道吧。

You know?

他们能交给AI去处理的事情。

What they've been able to offload to AI.

还有人感到疲惫、筋疲力尽，拼命工作，像我们说的，心里不安、焦虑，但又带着希望。

And then people are feeling tired, burnt out, just working hard and hard as we said, uneasy, anxious, and then hopeful.

所以你看，这里的情绪种类非常多，真的很难说清楚到底发生了什么。

So as you can see, there is a wide variety of of emotions here, and it's it's really tough to to figure out what exactly is going on.

但我特别想提一点，尼哈尔·辛哈在和你的那期节目里提到过，我知道他是这个播客的朋友，也是产品领域和整个科技圈里非常了不起的领袖，他讲过‘微笑式疲惫’这个词。

But one thing I definitely wanted to mention, which Nikhyl Singhal mentioned in an episode with you, I know he's a friend of the pod and such an incredible leader in product and in general in the tech community, he talks about smiling exhaustion.

我特别喜欢这个词，因为它精准地捕捉到了这种矛盾心理。

And I just love that term because I think it captures this ambivalence.

过去的那种情绪、过去的那种倦怠，完全是灰暗的。

The old type of emotion, the old type of burnout was just completely grim.

你知道，那是一种源于疏离和耗尽的纯粹负面情绪。

You know, it it's it it it was all about these negative emotions that come from disengagement and exhaustion.

而如今，当尼哈尔谈到这种疲惫时，人们反而感觉像是重获新生。

Whereas now when Nikhyl talks about finding exhaustion, it's about people almost feeling reborn on the one hand.

你知道吗，我又在交付产品了。

You know, I'm shipping again.

我又在搞开发了。

I'm building.

我正用AI创造出一些了不起的东西。

I'm creating these incredible things with AI.

这可能是最令人兴奋的时代，但根本停不下来。

There's never been a more exciting time, but there's no off switch.

根本停不下来，节奏简直残酷到极点。

There's no off switch, and so the tempo is absolutely brutal.

规则每天都在不断重写。

The rules keep rewriting themselves every single day.

这种节奏真是毫不松懈。

It's a very relentless pace.

所以我们即使感到精疲力尽，还是强颜欢笑。

And so we're smiling through that exhaustion that that we're feeling.

我觉得，这比任何其他东西都更能体现那种矛盾心理。

And I think that captures the ambivalence more than than anything, really.

我觉得也有必要回头看看你之前提到的一个核心观点：其实有一半的人虽然工作非常辛苦，有时甚至筋疲力尽，但他们同时也非常投入，全身心扑在上面，对现状充满热情和动力。

I think it's also good to kinda come back to one of the core points you made earlier, that half of people are actually feeling very, like they are working very hard, probably exhausted at times, but they're also just like really into, they're going all in, feeling good, energized about where things are going.

所以在我们讨论这么多负面情绪的时候，千万别忘了这一点。

So I think it's important to always remember like, come back to that as we share all these negative elements.

其实有一大群人正享受这个时代，过得非常好。

There's actually a large group of people that are actually loving this time and doing super well.

确实如此。

There are.

我觉得最重要的是，我们常常太容易把事情想得非黑即白了。

I think more than anything, what I would like to highlight here is that, you know, we tend to think of things way too often in black and white Yeah.

这种二元对立的思维方式。

Terms.

我们总是把人分成两类：要么是充满热情的，要么就是悲观绝望的？

We see people as either people who are just full of hype or people who are, is it doomers?

这么叫对吗？

Would that be the right?

是的。

Yeah.

或者叫反对者，随便你怎么命名。但说实话，生活里事情从来都不是非黑即白的。

Or haters whatever you want What to call we're seeing here is that as always in life, if you ask me, things aren't as simple.

在伊莲娜·弗农提到的那些表面现象背后，我们每个人心里其实都住着一个乐观派，也藏着一点悲观者。

Behind that facade, behind the theatrics that Elena Vernon discussed, we all have both the hype person within us and the doomer to a certain extent.

我们之间的区别，只是各自拥有的这两种情绪比例不同罢了。

And the only difference between us is that we have different amounts of each.

我们不是非此即彼，而是充满了矛盾和纠结。

But we're not just one or the other, and there really is a ton of ambivalence.

我只是想让大家知道，这种感觉完全没问题。

And and I just want people to know that it's okay.

你懂的。

You know?

感到兴奋和好奇没问题，感到不知所措也没关系。

It's okay to be excited and curious, but also feel overwhelmed.

感到轻松又疲惫，这很正常。

It's okay to feel relieved and tired.

有点怨气，也是可以的。

It's okay to feel resentful.

即使总体上你对这项技术还是持积极态度。

Even if all in all, you feel positive about the technology.

这些情绪完全可以同时存在于我们心里。

Those emotions can coexist within us.

这再自然不过了。

It's very natural.

别让那种非此即彼的说法左右你，觉得你的情绪哪里不对——在当今这个时代，这些感受其实都完全可以理解。

Don't let this narrative that you're either or to to dominate and to convince you that anything's wrong with how you feel because really all of these emotions are very understandable given the times we're in.

这一点太重要了。

Such an important point.

我很喜欢你这么说。

I love that you said that.

接下来是第二个要点：我们分析你发现的这种分化时，专门看了哪些部门状况最好、哪些最差。

Okay, so the next takeaway, what we did here is when we were looking at this bifurcation that you found, we looked at just which functions are having the best time and worst time.

之前我们其实已经隐约提到过，现在确实有那么几个部门整体处境最艰难，幸福感也最低。

And we had a hint at this earlier, and it turns out there's a couple that are just overall having the worst time right now and feeling the least happy.

那我们来具体看看这些情况。

So let's get into that.

是的。

Yeah.

确实，毫无疑问。

So definitely, definitely.

顺便说一句，去年我们也看到过类似的情况。

And we saw this last year, by the way, as well.

我们发现设计师和研究人员的情绪最为消极。

We are seeing that designers and researchers are the most negative.

为了更清楚地说明我的意思，从这页幻灯片上可以看到，在AI带来的身份转变方面，设计师和研究人员感到被削弱或动摇的比例最高。

And just to clarify what I mean by that, what you can see in the slide is that when it comes to AI identity shifts, designers and researchers are the highest in feeling either destabilized or diminished.

在疲惫、压力大或焦虑这些情绪上，研究人员和设计师的负面感受也是最突出的。

When it comes to emotions like being tired, overwhelmed or anxious, researchers and designers lead the pack in a negative way of course.

至于担心被AI取代工作，研究人员和设计师的担忧程度也达到了最高水平。

When it comes to worries about losing one's job to AI, again, researchers and designers are pretty much as high as one can be.

最后，在类似净推荐值的指标上——也就是人们是否会向朋友或同事推荐自己的岗位——目前研究人员和设计师是最不愿意推荐自己职业的群体。

And then finally, when it comes to these NPS like scores of whether people would recommend their role to a friend or to a colleague, researchers and designers are the least likely to recommend entering their role at this point.

我们之前已经讨论过这一点。

We talked about this earlier.

我觉得这里也没什么好补充的了。

I don't know how much more there's to add here.

说到底，也不是说这个群体现在遇到了大麻烦。

Basically, it's again, it's not that this function is in big trouble necessarily.

这就是目前从事这个领域的人的真实感受。

It's this is how people in that function are feeling right now.

说实话，我并不客观，因为我本身就是研究和设计圈子里的人。

You know, I'm I'm not objective because I'm part of the research community and the design community.

如果可以的话，我想对这个圈子里的人说，我真心相信，现在是我们这些角色在产品中发挥关键作用的最重要时刻。

If I may, I just want to tell people that in this community that I truly and honestly believe that there's never been a more important time for our roles to manifest in the products that we build.

你之前和很多人聊过这个话题，Lenny，比如品味、工艺、品质这些概念。

You've talked about this with many people, Lenny, in in previous interviews about concept like taste, about concepts like craft, about concepts like quality.

我想到了像Carrie的CEO这样的人，她曾非常动人地谈过品质的重要性，以及如何打造产品。

I'm thinking of people like Carrie Linear's CEO who talked so beautifully about the importance of quality and how you build products.

我还想到像……

I'm thinking about people like like

Katie Dill就挺典型的。

Katie Dill comes to mind.

她和我们深入聊过品味、美感这些话题。

She had a we had a whole conversation around taste and beauty and about Dill.

最近，Anthropic公司Claude团队的设计负责人温珍妮，还有许多其他人都在谈论品味、判断力和设计的重要性。

Recently, Jenny Wen, who leads design for Claude at Anthropic, and so many other people who talk about the importance of taste, of judgment, of design.

所以我真心希望设计师和研究人员能重新找回对这个行业的信心，因为这个行业真的需要他们。

So I I honestly hope that designers and researchers make a comeback when it comes to how they feel about this industry because the industry needs them.

这个行业需要我们。

The industry needs us.

我希望明年能看到一些改变，这里向所有设计师和研究人员发出呼吁：行动起来，做好你们的工作，因为在这个时代，你们的价值无可替代。

And so I hope we see a change next year, and this is the call to all designers and researchers to get in there and do our thing because it's incredibly valuable at this era.

是的。

Yeah.

我最近和几个人聊过设计，特别是想搞清楚，为什么设计今天没能成为重要的价值点和差异化优势？毕竟AI在设计上表现得这么差。

I've been I've had a few conversations recently about just design and in particular just why why is design not a huge value add and differentiator today knowing AI is just so bad at it?

我们刚请了Codex应用的负责人来谈，为什么AI根本做不好设计，你一眼就能看出来这东西是AI设计的。

We just had the head of the Codex app on talking about why AI like AI is not good at design, and you could clearly tell AI designed this thing.

按理说，面对这么多AI生成的粗糙产物，现在正是设计成为企业核心竞争力的最佳时机。

And you would think this was the moment for design to become such a value add and differentiator for companies, seeing all this AI slop that's being produced.

所以我挺乐观的，因为大家都会越来越厌倦这些千篇一律的东西。

So I'm optimistic that'll emerge as people are like, I'm so sick and tired of all these generic things.

我真想做出点真正出色的东西。

I I wanna actually build something great.

没错。

Yeah.

而且，如果我没记错的话，你之前提到过，AI在设计上遇到的一些问题其实是可以解决的。

And moreover, if I recall correctly, you you in that conversation, talked about how some of the issues around AI doing design are perhaps tractable problems.

但有些问题根本无解，或者说，要解决起来难得多。

But some of them are even intractable, I I would say, or definitely much, much harder to solve for.

到目前为止，创造真正新颖、富有创意的体验，这项技术还远远做不到。

It's still the case that creating incredible novel creative experiences, not something that this technology is quite capable of.

所以咱们就等着看吧，但我真心希望明年设计和研究圈能转变态度，重新重视这个行业。

So we'll see what happens, but I I really do hope that the design and research community turn around and change their minds about the industry next year.

是的。

Yeah.

天哪。

Oh, man.

我都等不及要看明年会怎样了。

I can't wait to do next year already.

接下来会是什么样子？

What's it gonna be?

但如果你仔细看看那些担心被AI取代的岗位，其实有一个群体比谁都紧张，我觉得是数据分析师。

But if you actually look at the losing my job to AI bucket, there's actually a role that is even more worried about losing their job, and I believe that is data analytics.

我们的观点其实很接近，都是为了把意思说清楚，但这确实挺有意思的。

Our shades are kind of very similar to keep it to keep the message clear, but that's really interesting.

数据分析师才是最担心丢掉工作的那群人。

The data data analysts basically are the most worried about losing their job.

我觉得我们现在看到的能力真的太惊人了，是的。

I think we're we're seeing incredible capabilities Yeah.

正在不断涌现。

Come out.

有道理。

Makes sense.

对。

Yeah.

现在有这么多不同的模型可以用来做数据分析。

With the different the different models out there to to run data analysis.

我在科研领域也看到类似的情况。

I'm seeing this in the research realm as well.

我觉得我们在编程领域也正经历着巨大的进步。

I would suggest that we're also seeing incredible advancements in coding.

我原本以为工程类岗位的担忧会更明显，结果并不是这样。

So I was expecting engineering to be higher in certain places here, and it's not.

但这并不是在讨论AI在实际完成这些工作时能力到底有多强。

But again, this isn't about the objective reality of how far AI has come in terms of its capabilities doing each of these roles.

这讲的是这些岗位上的人们内心的真实感受。

This is about how people are feeling in these roles.

这些事情之间并没有一一对应的关系。

And there isn't a one to one correlation between those things.

说到这个，咱们聊聊谁最开心吧。

Speaking of that, let's talk about who the happiest people are.

谁过得最好？

Who's doing great?

谁状态最棒？

Who's doing best?

在科技行业里，最开心的人群，这一点从去年到今年都没变。

So the happiest people in tech, this is something that did not change between last year's survey and this year's.

依然是创业者和在小公司工作的人。

It's still founders and people who are working in smaller companies.

我得提一句，关于创业者，就像你之前说的，据我所知，当创始人是一份特别辛苦、全身心投入的工作。

And I do feel the need to say that when it comes to founders, to your point earlier, not that I know, but being a founder is an incredibly challenging, all encompassing job.

而且这里存在一定的选择偏差——这些受访者是目前还在运营中的初创公司创始人，而不是那些已经倒闭的创始人。

And there is a certain selection bias here in the sense that these are people who are currently in the active role of a founder in a startup that is still running rather than founders who had to shut down their startup or whatever it might be.

所以我想明确一下，我们讨论的是哪一类人。

So I just want to make that clear around who we're looking at.

不过确实，当我们看创始人，还有公司规模的时候，不管是乐观情绪、倦怠感、裁员担忧，还是是否愿意推荐这份工作，都能看到这些数据随着问题不同而上升或下降。

But yes, when we look at founders and when we look at, in this case, you're looking at company size as well, you can see that whether it's optimism, whether it's burnout, layoff worry, or whether people would recommend their job, you're seeing these increases or decreases depending on the question.

很明显，创始人在几乎所有指标上都排第一：71%的人感到乐观，最享受工作，倦怠感最低，裁员担忧最少，对AI的热情也最高。

It's very clear that founders are top of nearly every measure, they're 71% optimistic, they're enjoying their jobs the most, they have the lowest burnout, the lowest layoff worry, the most AI excitement.

虽然和其他因素相比，这个影响属于中等程度，但依然非常显著。

It's a medium sized effect compared to other effects we saw, but very significant.

不过话说回来，就算有所有权和自主权，创始人也并非没有局限——很多创始人仍然处于中度甚至轻度倦怠状态，有47%的创始人如此；而且正如我们之前说的，现在就连创始人自己也不太愿意推荐别人去当创始人，这点挺有意思的。

And that said, if we talk about founders, even having that ownership and even having that agency has its limits, founders are still, many founders are still moderately or at least moderately burnt out, forty seven percent of founders that would be and as we said earlier, even founders aren't very likely to recommend being a founder to other people right now, which is very interesting.

我觉得还有一点很重要，正如你提到的，现在网上流行一种说法，说现在是创业最好的时代。

I think it's also important to note, there's definitely this, as you said, this kind of meme of there's never been a better time to build.

有些人看到这些数据，可能会想：我得赶紧创业，这可是最棒的选择。

People may see this and be like, I gotta start a company, it's the best place to be.

现在可能正是大家对创业最兴奋的时刻，但等形势变得 tougher，这种热情说不定就会降温。

It may be this moment currently where people are feeling most excited about it, And then as the bubble, you know, I don't know if it's a bubble, but as things start to get harder, there may be a shift away from that.

到目前为止挺有意思的是，连续两年创始人都最开心，但我好奇如果市场变了，或者出现其他情况，会不会就不一样了。

This so far interesting that we've seen two years in a row founders are the happiest, but I wonder if that changes, if the market changes, if something, you know, that kind of thing.

但这并不意味着你只要当了创始人就会开心。

So this isn't saying you're going to be happy if you become a founder.

但连续两年，最明显的一个结论就是，无论从哪个维度看，创始人都最开心。

But it is really interesting that two years in a row, of all of the, like the most clear, one of the clearest takeaways is just founders seem to be happiest across every dimension.

是的。

Yeah.

还有公司规模也是个因素。

And then company size as well.

如果你在大公司工作，乐观情绪会更低。

Again, optimism goes down if you're working for a larger company.

你在大公司工作更容易感到疲惫。

You get more burnt out if you're working for a larger company.

你在大公司工作更担心被裁员，也更不太会推荐别人去你这样的岗位。

You're more worried about layoffs if you're working for a larger company, and you're less likely to recommend your role if you're working for a larger company.

这一点也一直保持稳定。

So that also remained consistent.

如果我们单看倦怠感，就能明显看出，从只有1到10人的初创公司，到拥有5000或10000人的大型企业，倦怠程度显著上升。

And if we look just at burnout specifically, then you can see very clearly here that burnout climbs in very significant ways in between working for a small one to 10 person startup and working for a 5,000 or 10,000 person enterprise company.

这太惊人了。

It's so wild.

这种趋势居然这么线性，真让人意外。

It's wild how linear this is.

就像你在这张图里指出的，中间没有明显波动，只有最后两点——

Like, there's no bump, and then those two at the end there, as you point out here in the chart,

它们其实都在误差范围内，统计上没差别。

they're statistically It's within margin of error.

是的。

Yeah.

但你看，这里的情绪就是一路往上走，根本不存在一个‘最佳规模’然后又回落的情况。

But it's like while here just like only goes up, there's not like a sweet spot and then it comes down again.

如果再回看之前的图表，情况完全一样，整个趋势非常线性，公司规模越大，情况就越糟。

And then if you go back to the previous chart, exactly the same thing, it's just like very linear, everything goes up and gets worse as your company size grows.

这太惊人了。

That's wild.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

我想强调一点，比如看倦怠感，即使最低的那档也还是相当高，对吧？

I would say one thing to highlight here, like if you look at burnout, for example, is that even the lowest is still fairly high, right?

所以我觉得，相比大公司，在初创企业工作的人倦怠感会轻一些，状态也更健康一些。

So I would say people are feeling somewhat less burnt out, somewhat healthier working for a startup.

但我认为，目前这种倦怠和焦虑的水平已经很令人担忧了。

But I would view these levels of burnout, of worry as worrisome.

我对科技行业当前的焦虑程度感到很不安。

I'm worried about the level of worry right now in tech.

这可不是什么好兆头。

Is not a good vibe.

你还记得吗？十年前我们在Airbnb认识的。

You know, you mentioned how we met a decade ago at Airbnb.

我当时就觉得，那会儿的氛围跟现在科技圈完全不一样。

I do feel like the vibe was very different than tech.

所以看到现在这些数据，我确实有点担心。

So I am a bit concerned about the numbers that we're seeing here.

但从相对角度来看，或许真该考虑换个方向，自己创业或者去小公司工作。

But yes, from a relative sense, a relative point of view, perhaps one should consider doing a shift and starting your own thing or working for a smaller company.

对，就是这样。

Yeah, exactly.

这会是我们其中一个重要的结论。

And that'll be one of the takeaways.

要是咱们也做个非科技行业的类似分析就好了，我特别好奇，你们觉得科技圈的人这么害怕、这么焦虑，其他行业呢？

You know what would be awesome is if we do one of these for non tech, I'm really curious just like you think people are scared and worried in tech.

我很想看看，比如蓝领工人或者其他领域的人，他们的压力是不是也差不多。

I'm so curious how that would compare to, you know, like, say, the blue collar folks or other functions.

我不确定咱们有没有这样的受众，但这个想法真的很有趣。

Like, I I don't know if we have the audience to do that, but that'd be really interesting.

我觉得我的空调维修师傅现在对自己的工作挺满意的。

I mean, I think my HVAC technician is feeling pretty great about his career right now.

佛罗里达现在热得不行。

Burning hot in Florida.

人人都需要空调。

Everyone needs air conditioning.

这情况短期内不会变。

That's not gonna change anytime soon.

所以没错，

So yeah,

这算是我们的一个收获吧。

can of our takeaways.

咱们真该去聊聊空调维修这个行业。

We should get into HVAC.

是的

Yeah.

要不我们开个

To start a

公司吧，真该这么做。

company We should do that.

开个

Start a

水管安装生意。

plumbing business.

天哪。

Oh, man.

好吧。

Okay.

我特别喜欢的是，再做一次调查时，我们开始发现一些始终成立的规律。

So what I love about this, doing the survey again is we're starting to find things that are consistently true.

下一个要点是另一个很好的例子，去年我们也看到过，关于管理者的问题。

And the next takeaway is another really good example that we saw last year too around managers.

我们来聊聊这个。

Let's get into that.

是的。

Yeah.

我想，可能很多人都已经意识到这一点了。

So, I mean, perhaps people are aware of this.

管理者的重要性真的非常大。

Managers matter a ton.

你的上司是谁，可能比你工作的其他任何特点都更重要。

Who your manager is probably matters more than most other characteristics of your role.

去年我们明确发现了这一点，今年再次验证了，那就是管理者的效能。

And we found this very explicitly last year and this year again, manager effectiveness.

所以我们基本上会问人们：你的上司称职吗？

So we basically ask people how effective is your manager?

你会怎么评价你的经理？

How would you rate your manager?

从这里可以看出，经理越有效，你越不容易倦怠，工作也越有成就感。

And what you can see here is that the more effective your manager is, the less burnt out you feel and the more you enjoy your job.

我们看到的这个影响是非常非常大的。

And this is a massive, massive effect that we're seeing.

比如，如果你的经理特别有效，你的工作满意度会高出大约65%，倦怠感也会明显降低。

So if you have an extremely effective manager, for example, you're reporting around 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout.

问题在于合格的经理太少了。

The problem is the supply.

只有大约四分之一的受访者认为自己的经理非常有效。

Only about 25% of the sample rates their manager as highly effective.

有36%的人认为自己的经理效率低下，这一点和去年相比几乎没有变化。

And 36% of the sample rated their managers as ineffective, which by the way is a very small change from last year.

所以，总体来看，人们对经理的评价并不高。

So we're seeing managers be rated not so well.

同时我们也发现，当管理者真的有效时——虽然这种情况远远不够多——他们对员工的满意度、倦怠感以及其他方面的影响简直惊人。

And at the same time, we're seeing that when managers are effective, which is clearly not often enough, the impact that has on people's enjoyment, burnout, and other aspects as well is incredible.

这太惊人了。

That's wild.

我觉得我们正在为这个世界带来全新的洞见，发现这些真相。

Like like, I think we're adding new insight into the world here and just finding this.

我以前从来没意识到，管理者的影响能这么大。

I like, I've never never seen this before, just how impactful a manager is.

我们总是听到一些零散的案例。

We always hear anecdotes.

总是听说，人们离职不是因为讨厌工作，而是因为讨厌上司。

We always hear, like, you know, people only leave they don't leave jobs.

他们离开的是自己的管理者。

They leave their manager.

但看到这些数据，才真正明白管理者的影响有多大。

But if this is wild just how much that impacts you.

显然，其中一个启示是，如果你现在过得不顺，就换个好点的经理。

And, clearly, one of the takeaways might be go, if you're having a bad time, find a better manager.

就像你说的，说起来容易做起来难。

As you said, easier said than done.

没错。

Yeah.

不过在继续之前，我想再提几点。

But there's a couple of things here I want to I want to also note before we move on.

首先，我们现在正处于扁平化时代。

First of all, we are in the era of the great flattening.

我们正处在创始人模式的时代。

We're in the era of founder mode.

现在每个人直接管理的下属比以往任何时候都多。

People have more direct reports now than ever before.

我们努力尽量保持组织扁平，减少层级。

We're trying to keep things as flat as possible and remove hierarchy.