本集简介
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你最近决定加入Twitter。
You decided to join Twitter recently.
你发布了第一条推文。
You put out your first tweet.
马克·安德森转推了这条推文,并说:这是最优秀的AI首席执行官,但却没人知道。
Marc Andreessen, quote tweeted it and said, this is the best AI CEO nobody knows.
我们最出色的工作都是独自默默完成的。
Our best work is done alone and quietly.
你每花一分钟写给公众看的内容,就少了一分钟用来专注于你的客户和
Every minute you're writing something for public consumption, you're not focusing your very limited time that you have on your customers and
你的产品。
your product.
你正在构建我们未来几年将要生活的许多东西。
You're building a lot of the future that we're gonna be living in.
接下来的几年会是什么样子?
What does the next couple years look like?
我们解决像癌症这样的难题,直接与这场AI热潮相关。
Us solving some of these impossible problems like cancer are directly gonna be related to this AI boom.
人类整体的痛苦程度将显著降低。
Net suffering in humanity overall should go down significantly.
在这个播客中出现的一个观点是,AI恰好在关键时刻来拯救我们。
A thread that has emerged on this podcast is that AI is coming just in time to save us.
未来五到十年,AI真正的影响将体现在农业、采矿和建筑领域。
The real impact of AI in the next five to ten years really is gonna be in farming, mining, construction.
建筑。
Construction.
这些行业需要自动化。
These industries, they need autonomy.
再晚就来不及了。
And it couldn't come soon enough.
如果你看看农民,他们的平均年龄在五十多岁。
If you look at farmers, the average age of a farmer is in their late fifties.
十年后这会意味着什么?
What does that mean in ten years from now?
人们对人工智能将如何影响世界感到很多焦虑。
There's lot of anxiety about what AI is going to do to the world.
恐惧的核心根源是误解。
The core root of fear is misunderstanding.
如果你在家对人工智能感到非常焦虑,最好的做法是花时间去了解它,你会很快看到它的局限性。
If you at home are very anxious about AI, the best thing that you can do is spend time to understand, and you will quickly see the limitations.
去了解它,然后主动推动这项技术用于善事。
Get to know it, then actively make the technology be used for good.
今天我的嘉宾是Qasar Younis,Applied Intuition的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
Today my guest is Qasar Younis, co founder and CEO of Applied Intuition.
你可能从未听说过Qasar或Applied Intuition。
You have probably never heard of Qasar or Applied Intuition.
这是我见过的最重要、最不为人知的AI公司及其首席执行官。
This is the most important under the radar AI company and CEO that I've ever come across.
这是一家估值150亿美元的公司,在过去十年里一直低调发展。
It's a $15,000,000,000 company that has been growing quietly over the last decade.
他们的业务是将人工智能应用于各种车辆,比如汽车、拖拉机、飞机、潜艇、采矿设备等等。
What they do is they add AI to vehicles, like cars, tractors, planes, submarines, mining rigs, and a lot more.
前20大汽车制造商中有18家是他们的客户,此外还包括全球最大的建筑、采矿和卡车公司,以及美国国防部。
18 out of the top 20 automakers are customers as well as the biggest global construction, mining, and trucking companies, also the Department of Defense.
他们本质上就像是没有硬件的Waymo或特斯拉。
They're basically Waymo or Tesla, but without the hardware.
Qasar本人出生在巴基斯坦的一个农场,后来在底特律长大,职业生涯始于通用汽车,之后又在博世工作。
Qasar himself was born on a farm in Pakistan, grew up in Detroit, started his career as an engineer at GM and then at Bosch.
在创立Applied Intuition之前,他还创办过几家公司。
He then went on to start a couple companies before starting Applied Intuition.
我非常喜欢这一期的内容,非常期待把它带给你们。
I love everything about this episode, and I am so excited to bring it to you.
别忘了访问lennysproductfast.com,那里为Lenny的通讯订阅者提供了独家的超值优惠。
Don't forget to check out lennysproductfast.com for an incredible set of deals available exclusively to Lenny's newsletter subscribers.
在短暂介绍我们的精彩赞助商之后,我们马上进入正题。
Let's get into it after a short word from our wonderful sponsors.
本集由Omni赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Omni.
如今,许多产品团队正在讨论如何推出AI分析功能。
Many product teams today are in the process of debating how to ship AI analytics.
困难之处显而易见。
The hard part is obvious.
让大语言模型在生产环境中猜测SQL语句,会是一团糟,完全是个糟糕的主意。
Having an LLM guess at SQL in production is a huge mess and just a bad idea.
Omni采取了不同的方法。
Omni takes a different approach.
他们内置了语义层,因此当你嵌入他们的分析功能时,AI真正理解的是你的业务定义,而不仅仅是原始数据表。
They have a semantic layer built in so that when you embed their analytics, the AI actually knows your business definitions, not just your raw tables.
你可以在任何内容上线前测试查询、验证推理逻辑,并锁定权限。
You can test queries, validate the reasoning, and lock down permissions before anything hits production.
如果你想在产品中集成AI分析功能,又不想从零开始构建整个技术栈,欢迎访问 omni.co/leni 申请为期三周的免费试用。
If you want AI analytics in your product without building the whole stack from scratch, check out omni.co/leni for a free three week trial.
Perplexity、DBT 和 BuzzFeed 等公司都在使用 Omni,为客户提供可信赖的分析功能。
Companies like Perplexity, DBT, and BuzzFeed use Omni to ship analytics their customers can trust.
访问 omni.co/leni 了解更多。
That's omni.co/leni.
我的播客嘉宾和我都喜欢讨论工艺、品味、自主性以及产品市场契合度。
My podcast guests and I love talking about craft and taste and agency and product market fit.
你知道我们最不喜欢聊什么吗?
You know what we don't love talking about?
SOC 2。
SOC two.
这时候就轮到 Vanta 出场了。
That's where Vanta comes in.
Vanta 帮助各种规模的企业快速实现合规,并通过行业领先的AI、自动化和持续监控保持合规状态。
Vanta helps companies of all sizes get compliant fast and stay that way with industry leading AI, automation, and continuous monitoring.
无论你是刚开始应对首个SOC 2或ISO 27001的初创公司,还是正在管理供应商风险的企业。
Whether you're a startup tackling your first SOC two or ISO twenty seven zero zero one or an enterprise managing vendor risk.
Vanta的信任管理平台让这一过程更快、更简单、更具可扩展性。
Vanta's trust management platform makes it quicker, easier, and more scalable.
Vanta还能帮助你将安全问卷的完成速度提升至原来的五倍,从而更快赢得更大的交易。
Vanta also helps you complete security questionnaires up to five times faster so that you can win bigger deals sooner.
结果如何?
The result?
根据最近的IDC研究,Vanta的客户每年节省了超过50万美元,且生产效率提高了三倍。
According to a recent IDC study, Vanta customers slashed over $500,000 a year and are three times more productive.
建立信任不是可选项。
Establishing trust isn't optional.
Vanta让这一过程自动化。
Vanta makes it automatic.
在vanta.com/lenny上享受1000美元优惠。
Get $1,000 off at vanta.com/lenny.
卡萨尔,非常感谢你来到这里。
Qasar, thank you so much for being here.
欢迎来到这个播客。
Welcome to the podcast.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
你正在构建我们未来将生活的许多东西,而人们可能甚至意识不到这一点。
You're basically building a lot of the future that we're going be living in and people may not even realize this.
这其中有两面性。
And there's two sides to this.
一方面,让我问你一个问题。
On the one side, let me ask you this question.
如果一切顺利,随着人工智能和物理人工智能的兴起,未来几年对人们来说会是什么样子?
If things go really well, what does the next couple years look like for people with the emergence of AI, with physical AI?
未来的愿景是什么?
What's the vision of the future?
让我先谈一下更广泛的AI观点,然后再具体谈谈物理AI。
Let me take the broader AI point and then the the the micro the more specific one on physical AI.
从宏观角度看,我觉得这就像工业革命。
Macro, I I think think about this like the industrial revolution.
对吧?
Right?
如果你坐在19世纪末,确实有很多因工业革命而产生的负面问题,我们可以聚焦于这些。
So if you're sitting, let's say, in the late eighteen hundreds, there's a lot of you know, we can focus on a lot of bad things that happened because of the Industrial Revolution.
对吧?
Right?
比如童工、垄断的兴起,以及战争带来的种种滥用。
You have child labor, and you have monopolies emerging, and you have abuse of you know, your your wars end up happening.
但如果没有工业革命所带来的价值和好处,我们今天的生活几乎是难以想象的,比如前所未有的广泛医疗保障。
But there's also it's an almost almost unimaginable present without the values and without without the kind of benefits we got out of the industrial revolution, which is broader access to health care like we've never seen before.
比如商品的获取,像我们习以为常的家居供暖和制冷这些物质条件。
Like, access to goods, material goods, things like we take for granted, like heating and cooling your home.
有一个很棒的YouTube频道,专门收集德国战俘写的信件
There there's this there there's this great YouTube kind of channel that focuses on POW letters from Germans
谁
who
这些战俘在二十世纪四十年代初看到美国,并写信回德国,描述他们作为战俘所看到的一切。
are seeing America in the early forties, and they're writing letters back to Germany about what they're seeing as they're basically, you know, prisoners of war.
他们对沿途火车经过的小镇灯火通明、到处都是汽车的景象感到震惊。
And they're kind of blown away that the towns that they roll by in these trains as they're going to their POW camps are all lit up or that there's cars everywhere.
二战期间,80%的德国城镇都没有电力。
80% of German towns in World War two did not have electricity.
这简直令人难以置信,因为我们总是默认所有这些技术都是平等普及的。
And that's kind of a mind bending kind of thing because we just assume all this stuff, all this technology is equally distributed.
积极的一面是,我们这些富裕或能接触到技术的人所享有的东西,其实每个人都应该能获得。
So the positive version is these things that we, let's say folks who are wealthy or folks who have access to technology, these things everybody has access to.
比如,有一个专门针对你的教练,而不是那种提供泛泛而谈回答的普通理疗师。
The fact like simply having somebody who's a coach to you and having that coach very specifically to you, not a generic you know, chatty PT that's giving fairly generic answers.
这是一件非常有力的事情。
That is a very powerful thing.
我认为,像癌症这样的难题的解决,将直接与这场人工智能浪潮相关。
I think us solving some of these impossible problems like cancer are directly gonna be related to this AI boom.
因此,我认为人类整体的痛苦,就像工业革命一样,总体上会下降,并且会显著下降。
So I think net suffering in humanity, I think, just like the industrial revolution, overall, should go down and should go down significantly.
我从根本上持乐观态度,认为技术会带来这种积极影响。
And I'm a fundamental optimist in that view that technology will bring that that that that that positivity.
在物理人工智能领域,当你拥有自己的汽车,拥有四肢和感官,能够驾驶时,你会把这些事情视为理所当然。
In physical AI specifically, again, you know, when you when you have things like your you have your own car and you have the ability you have your limbs and you have your your senses and you can drive, you take these kind of things for granted.
你跳上车,去商店购物。
You jump in your car and you go to the store.
对于残障人士或无力负担车辆的人来说,获得近乎免费或免费的出行能力意义重大。
For somebody who maybe is disabled or somebody who doesn't have the money to afford a vehicle, access to mobility that's nearly free or is free is a big deal.
而像让自动驾驶汽车对所有人免费这样的简单例子,将如何改变这个世界——你生活在卢旺达,离最近的医院有两小时路程,这至关重要。
And that, like, simple example of making self driving cars free for everybody and how that would change the planet, you live in Rwanda and you are two hours from the nearest hospital, that matters.
这确实是非常非常真实的。
That's in a very, very true way.
因此,我认为许多对人工智能的负面看法来自那些生活条件极其优越的人。
And so I think a lot of, let's say, the negativity around AI comes from people who, frankly speaking, are living in a very, very good existence.
当你生活在社会的另一端时,是的,我并不是那种天真地认为技术没有任何负面影响的人。
And when you live on the other edge of society, yes, and I'm not like some naive person who thinks that there's no downsides of technology.
我们可以讨论这些问题。
We we can discuss that.
但我只是看到积极的一面要多得多。
But I I I just see there's a a lot more positive.
所以当你问这个问题时,未来三到五年会怎样?
So when you ask that question, what's the next forget three to five years.
未来二十年会怎样?
What's the next twenty years?
那些我们习以为常的糟糕事物,突然间就不存在了。
These things that we take for granted that are bad suddenly are not there.
我认为某些疾病、某些基本服务的获取障碍突然就开始消失了。
And I think I think certain diseases, certain accessibility to basic services suddenly start going away.
是的。
Yeah.
最后一个例子是,你可以几乎免费地给任何人发消息。
One last example that is you take just the fact that you can message people basically for free.
你知道,对于年纪大一点的人来说。
You know, for people old enough.
这并不是常态。
Like, this is not the norm.
我们来自巴基斯坦。
We came from Pakistan.
我们甚至无法与巴基斯坦联系,因为长途电话费用太高,只能靠手写信件交流。
We couldn't even communicate back to Pakistan because the long distance, you know, was so expensive, and so it was handwritten letters.
今天,你可以几乎免费地联系地球上任何一个人。
Today, you can basically contact anybody on the planet basically for free.
这显然有明显的弊端。
There's obvious downsides for that.
但也有许多好处,比如能够几乎免费地与你关心和爱的人保持联系。
But there there's a lot of upsides for that, which is being in touch with people that you care about and you love basically for free.
因此,我认为人工智能有能力以接近免费的成本将这种丰富性带给更多的人。
And so I think AI has the ability to bring this abundance to many, many more people at a near free cost.
另一方面,正如你所指出的,人们对人工智能将如何影响世界、影响工作和机器人感到非常焦虑。
On the flip side of this, as you pointed out, there's a lot of there's a lot of anxiety about what AI is gonna do to the world, to jobs, robots.
现在有一些来自中国的视频,展示了一些机器人或类似双节棍的装置,就像股市一样。
There are, these videos coming out of China with these robots or nunchucks, like the stock market.
是的。
Right.
你知道吗?
I feel you know what?
我觉得双节棍工会对此义愤填膺。
I feel the nunchuck union is up at arms with that.
他们怎么敢?
How dare they?
是的。
Yeah.
但你知道,这很可怕。
But it's, you know, it's scary.
而且你知道,市场对这些情况的反应越来越强烈,比如‘天啊’。
And the, you know, the market's reacting more and more to the just like, oh, wow.
这些公司不可能长期生存下去。
These companies are not going to survive long term.
再次,作为这一领域的核心人物并参与构建许多将引领我们走向未来的技术,你如何看待未来几年的发展?你乐观吗?是什么让你保持乐观?对于那些希望在这一时期保持平静的人,你有什么建议吗?
Again, being at the center of this and building a lot of the stuff that will get us there, how do you envision that couple of years playing out, like are you optimistic, what keeps you optimistic, any advice to people that to help them kind of stay, you know, calm through this period.
所以,有两个不同的问题:一是对技术变革的焦虑,二是公众投资者对所持股票的反应。
So so the two separate things, anxiety around technical shift and then the public investors reacting to specific stocks they've held.
我们必须把这两者区分开来。
We have to separate those things.
是的。
Yeah.
让我们分别讨论它们。
So let's talk about them separately.
关于第一个问题,你知道,恐惧的核心根源是误解。
On the first one, you know, the the the core root of fear is is misunderstanding.
如果你在家对AI以某种形式影响你的工作感到非常焦虑,最好的做法是花时间去了解它。
And I think the if you at home are very anxious about the impact of AI in some variant on your own job, the best thing that you can do is spend time to understand it.
你会很快看到它的局限性。
And you will quickly see the limitations.
YouTube上有一些很棒的视频,比如试图通过把杯子倒过来让Gemini理解什么是杯子,然后他们又用Chatty Bitty做了类似实验。
There's some great videos on YouTube, which are, like, you know, trying to get Gemini to understand what a cup is by just holding it upside down, and it, like, really and then they do it with, you know, chatty bitty.
所以,如果这场革命真的要来,你知道,AI统治者们首先得弄明白杯子的顶部和底部。
So it's like, if the if the revolution is coming, you know, the AI overlords have to first understand, like, the top and bottom of a cup.
因此你会意识到,你可以看到那些挥舞着双节棍的人形机器人视频,它们是预编程的,制作这段视频的成本高达1500万美元。
And so you realize that you can see the video of nunchuck wielding humanoids, which are preprogrammed, and they cost $15,000,000 to do that video.
是的。
Yeah.
那是真的。
That that is true.
这并不是假的。
It's not it's not fake.
我并没有暗示这是假的。
I'm not I'm not implying it's fake.
但它也不是你的大脑填补空白时所想象的那种情况。
But it's also not what your brain kind of fills in the gaps.
你看到挥舞双节棍的机器人,就会觉得这些是具有自主意识的生物,而不是一堆被编程执行特定动作的马达。
You see nunchuck robots, and you just feel like, well, the gap you know, these these are sentient beings that are at their own volition going rather than it's a bunch of motors that have been programmed to do a certain thing.
如果你想真正感到震撼,就去汽车工厂看看,我们已经这样做了二十五年。
If you really wanna be impressed, you go to a car factory, and we've been doing that for twenty five years.
我们有非常先进的机器人,以极快的速度制造产品。
We have very, very advanced robots moving extremely fast to build things.
为什么我们对汽车工厂没有焦虑,却对双节棍机器人感到焦虑?是因为人类不喜欢这种‘缺口’——我们能理解焊接机器人的缺口。
And why are we don't we have anxiety about the car factory, but we have anxiety about the nunchuck robots is because the human being doesn't like, that gap, we understand the gap of a, you know, of a welding robot.
你会说,哦,好吧。
You say, oh, okay.
那是个机器人。
That's a robot.
它被编程来完成这个焊接任务,但我们作为生活在世界中的个体,却并不了解其中的技术细节。
It's been programmed to make this weld, but we don't know the techno we as just as an individual human being living in, you know, in the world.
你不知道那个双节棍机器人是如何被制造出来的,于是你用焦虑和恐惧来填补这个空白。
You don't know how that robot was made to do that nunchuck thing, and so you substitute that with anxiety and fear.
所以我恳请你去更多地了解这项技术,这样你就能看到它的边界。
And so I would really implore you to, you know, kind of learn more about the technology, and you start seeing the edges.
但这是否削弱了你所关注的核心问题——即社会是否会受到根本性伤害,这总体上对社会是好是坏?
Now does that take away from the most fundamental thing that you're getting at the string that you're pulling at, which is, like, is society going to be fundamentally harmed, and is this, you know, net net bad for society?
我认为在任何技术变革中,比如WhatsApp的出现,就是一个例子。
I think in any technical shift, the emergence of WhatsApp, This is a example.
有些人因此受到了伤害。
There are people who are damaged by that.
literally 一些公司消失了,同时也有不少人因这项技术的出现而受到伤害。
Literally companies that go away, but also humans who are damaged by the advent of that technology.
因此,我认为作为社会成员和社会领导者,我们可以以某种方式引导这种趋势。
And so I think as members of society and as leaders in society, we can kind of move that funnel in whichever way.
技术,首先请去掉‘人工智能’这个词。
Technology first remove the word AI.
‘人工智能’是个充满情感色彩的词,因为它裹挟着你并不了解的东西。
AI is such a emotional word because it's wrapped in these things you don't know.
于是,这种恐惧便逐渐扭曲了。
And so that fear then kind of deforms.
所以我们只说‘技术’吧。
So let's just say technology.
你知道的?
You know?
所以我认为,关键在于我们自己要认识到,这项技术既可以用于善,也可以用于恶。
So the so so I think it's it's up to us to recognize this technology can be used for good and technology can be used for bad.
我认为,这才是真正的重点所在。
And I think that's where really the focus is.
所以去了解它,然后作为参与者积极推动技术用于善处——无论你是创始人,还是公司里的普通员工,抑或普通公民。
So get to know it, and then actively make the technology be used for good as a participant, whether you're a founder or all the way as an individual employee or citizen of a large company.
至于问题的第二部分,关于公众投资者之类的,我并没有专门的研究,但这是我个人的推测,也是实际发生的情况。
Then on the second part of the question about, you know, public investors and stuff, this is my I don't have any, you know, particular research on this, but this is what my guess is what's actually happened.
除了工程师这个身份——用更准确的话说,这是我核心的身份之外,我还在哈佛读过MBA。
Beyond being an engineer, which is my my core identity for the lack of a better word, I was also I did an MBA at Harvard.
那是我第一次意识到,我并非出身于非常非常富裕的家庭。
And so that was the first time that this, let's say, I didn't come from very, you know, very, very kind of wealthy upbringings.
当我进入哈佛时,第一次看到了那个世界——人们拥有私人飞机之类的生活。
This is the first time when I went to Harvard, I saw like, you know, that world, that world of people having, like, private jets and stuff.
这对我来说是一次非常震撼的体验。
It was a really eye opening experience for me.
但我接触到的现实世界是高金融以及高金融是如何运作的。
But the real world I was exposed to was high finance and how high finance works.
你可能会像我从前远观时那样认为,对冲基金或大型公开股权基金的人们极其细致且深思熟虑。
And you might think, as I did from far away, that folks in at hedge funds or at large, you know, public equities funds are extremely nuanced and thoughtful.
他们就像在白板上使用极其深奥甚至可能是理论性的数学,来推算是否应该买入或卖出Figma。
And they are like, you know, on whiteboards with, you know, you know, extremely deep and and oh, maybe even theoretical math to figure out should they buy or sell, you know, Figma.
但实际情况并非如此。
And that's not actually how it works.
我的意思是,这些人实际上做的是——在这个特定情况下,我认为他们只是买卖股票。
I mean, it really what these folks are is and in this specific case, I think what's happening is they are they buy and sell stock.
他们是聪明人,也确实很努力。
They are smart people, and they do work hard.
我并不是想否定这一点。
It's not to take take that away.
但他们并没有你所想象的、那些坐在纽约摩天大楼里的人应有的根本性优势。
But they they don't have a fundamental edge that you would assume that somebody who sits in, you know, Skyscraper in New York has.
顺便说一下,这就是为什么散户投资者已经成为市场中如此活跃且重要的部分。
And by the way, that's why retail investors have have have become such a active and and and and kind of significant part of the market.
因此,这些人去找了人工智能顾问,还去找了这些公司的实际开发人员,然后对他们说:嘿。
So those folks have gone to AI consultants and have gone to people who are literally developers, at these firms, and they'll do something like, hey.
你能不能在一周内给我开发一个这样的应用?
Why don't you build me this app in a week?
然后,这家咨询公司会回来一个应用,看起来有点像Figma或者其他某种网页应用。
And then, you know, this, like, consultancy will come back with an app, which kinda looks like maybe a Figma or another you know, some some some web app.
于是,那个对冲基金经理就会说:嗯,如果这家公司真的坐在那里,他们会说:不行。
And so that hedge fund manager, they're like, well and then, you know, if if the company was sitting there, they would say, no.
不行。
No.
这看起来虽然像我的应用,但其实根本不是我的应用。
This is this just looks like my app, but this is actually not my app.
它的深度不够。
It's not as deep.
它没有所有这些功能。
It doesn't have all these things.
它与所有这些其他系统都有集成。
There's integrations with all these other systems.
但对于普通投资者来说,他们会说,是的,但这个应用只花了几个星期或一个月就开发出来了。
But for the public investor buy, they're like, Yeah, but it only took a few weeks or a month to build this.
你们却花了500名工程师好几年才做出来。
It took you 500 engineers for a couple of years.
这个AI东西可能是真的。
This AI thing could be real.
我在X上读到的那些关于靠‘氛围编程’就能取代十亿美元公司的说法,也许确实如此。
And the things I'm reading on X about just vibe coding your way to replace billion dollar companies, that might be the case.
市场立即对此风险进行了定价。
And the market immediately prices in that risk.
这就是抛售的由来。
And that's where that sell off comes from.
这并不一定意味着所有这些都成立,就在过去24小时内,我认识一位非常谨慎的投资者——我不能说出他的名字——他说现在正是买入的时机,因为这些公司实际上并不会消失。
That doesn't necessarily mean all of those I mean, just within the last twenty four hours, I had a that's I I would I I can't say his name, but it a very, let's say, calibrated investor who said this is the time to buy because these companies are not actually going away.
所以我认为,社会中的这两种焦虑和市场抛售是两件完全不同的事情。
And and and so I think those are two anxiety within society and the sell off are two very different things.
它们由不同的原因驱动。
They're motivated by different things.
它们都属于更大的AI叙事的一部分,但我不会把这两者混为一谈。
They're part of the larger AI narrative, but I wouldn't conflate those two things.
对冲基金投资者并不是在想:我担心社会问题。
It's not that the the hedge fund investor is like, I'm worried about society.
抛售ServiceNow。
Sell ServiceNow.
这和那种情况是不一样的。
Like, it's it's there there's the the it's it's different than that.
至少这是我个人的看法。
At least that's my impression.
这就是我们一直在讨论的超额收益。
This is the alpha we've been talking about.
现在是买入的时候了。
Time to buy.
这并不是投资建议。
This is not investment advice.
但这确实是很好的建议。
But that's really good advice.
我认为真正的建议是战胜恐惧,我能感受到这种焦虑,尤其是当我去密歇根时,你知道的,远离硅谷的圈层。
I think the real advice is to to fight fear, and I feel that anxiety, especially when I go to Michigan and I I you know, outside of people in the Silicon Valley bubble.
试着去了解一点你害怕的技术,你就会开始看到一些端倪。
It's like just just try to learn a little bit about the technology that you're afraid of, and and you'll start seeing some of the the edges.
我很欣赏你关于自动驾驶汽车本质上是机器人的观点。
I love your point about how self driving cars are essentially robots.
我们不这么叫它们,但它们确实是机器人。
We don't call them that, but they're robots.
当然。
Absolutely.
你看到一个拿着双节棍的机器人。
And you see a nunchuck wielding robot.
一辆自动驾驶汽车做坏事已经可能非常危险。
A self driving car doing bad things is could be very dangerous already.
所以这是一个非常好的重新思考:如果你只是把它看作另一个机器人,这对我们真的很有帮助。
And so that's a really good reframe that if you just think of it, it's just another robot, and it's been really good for us.
顺便说一下,以自动驾驶为例,不管你如何分析自动驾驶公司提供的统计数据,它们都比人类驾驶员安全得多。
And by the way, the self driving thing as an example, you know, whichever way you slice the statistics that are available from self driving companies, they're supremely, supremely more safe than human drivers.
我相信再过二三十年,不会太久,我们会回过头来看,就像我们现在看待童工一样。
And I I do believe in twenty or thirty years, not that much longer, we'll look back and we'll kind of be like it's kind of like we think about child labor.
你知道,在工业革命之后,那是很正常的事。
You know, a post industrial revolution, that was a normal thing.
你会让上中学的孩子去工作。
You would send kids who are in middle school to go work.
今天在第三世界国家仍然发生着这种情况。
It happens in third world countries today.
这其中并没有太多情感因素。
It's there isn't a lot of emotion behind it.
并不被认为是剥削,因为你别无选择。
Is not considered to be exploitative because you have no choice.
你知道,每个人都会这样,我认为再过二十五年、三十年,我们会回过头来看,发现人们当时只是疲惫不堪、受情绪影响,经历了极度压力和创伤性的人生事件后,就上了车。
You know, everyone just and I think we'll look back in twenty five, thirty years where, like, people were just, like, tired, under the influence, you know, after, like, extremely stressed, going through a traumatic life, you know, experience, and then they jump in into a car.
这真是太疯狂了。
Like, that that that's it's it is crazy.
每个人都应该真正从情感上思考一下。
And and just for everyone, everyone should really emotionally think about.
仅在美国,明年就会有超过三万人死于这些事故。
Just in The United States, over thirty thousand people will die in the next year from these accidents.
老斯大林说过一句话:一个人死亡是悲剧,一百万人死亡就成了统计数据。
The old Stalin line, it's like, one death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic.
我们只是让这个数字从耳边溜过,心想,哦,三万人而已。
And we just let the statistic kinda go over our head like, oh, it's thirty thousand people.
但如果你曾经与经历过类似车祸悲剧的家庭交谈过,那真是难以置信。
But if you ever have talked to a family of somebody who went through a tragedy like a car accident, it isn't it's unbelievable.
于是,你对人工智能和机器人恐惧的感觉瞬间消失,你真正看到了人类的代价,意识到其实我们自己开车根本没道理。
And and and, you know, you you suddenly all the fear of AI robots goes away, and you really see that human impact, and you realize, like, actually, us driving doesn't make sense.
这纯粹只是因为有人会因此丧命。
And it's not for any other reason than literally people die.
我已经成为一个狂热的特斯拉车主,现在我几乎一直在用自动驾驶功能。
I've become a a huge I have a Tesla and the self I've just used self driving all the time now.
就在几个月前,这项技术变得非常可靠,以前让人紧张,现在却让人惊叹,这真是太棒了。
Just like a few months ago, we got very good, and it's It used to be nerve racking, now it's like, wow, this is
而且你并不是把开车当作工作。
much better And you're not using You're not doing driving as a job.
想象一下,如果你是一名卡车司机,或在矿场工作,或从事其他类似高危任务,有一点智能辅助,能帮你分担风险,那简直太了不起了。
Imagine if you're a commercial truck driver, or you work in a mine, or you work, you know, like there, a little bit of intelligence, a helping hand in that very dangerous task, it's incredible.
我认为人类大脑中有一种特性,当你提到自动驾驶卡车的现实时,人们立刻就会想:那卡车司机的工作怎么办?
And I think there's something about the human brain where when you bring up that reality of self driving trucks, the immediate people are like, well, what about the trucking jobs?
不用说,根本没人愿意做这份工作。
Needless to say, we don't have enough people who want to do that job.
所以先把这一点放在一边。
So leave that fact to the side.
我认为你真正应该关注的是,卡车事故导致人们丧生这一事实。
I think the fact that you really focus on is the fact that people die from trucking accidents.
就像我们常说的,不能因噎废食。
Like, we we do like, we can't, you know, throw out the baby with the bathwater.
所以我恳请所有思考人工智能、特别是实体人工智能的人,始终意识到你的原始大脑是被数万年乃至数十万年野外生存的本能所塑造的——当你听到灌木丛中的沙沙声,你会立刻以为是蛇,因为我们的祖先就是这样被编程的。
And so I think I implore everybody, you know, who thinks about AI broadly and physical AI specifically to always recognize that your monkey brain is programmed because of thousands of years of being in you know, hundreds of thousands of years of living out in the wild and being in cave that when you hear the rustle in the bush, that is you think it's a snake because that's what our ancestors were programmed.
所以现在,当新事物进入我们的认知时,你的第一反应并不是:如果矿山实现自动化,那不是会失去工作吗?
So now when something new enters our psyche, your your your view isn't, well, if if mining if if mines became autonomous, well, wouldn't that lose jobs?
实际上,那些是让人丧命的糟糕工作。
It's like, those are awful jobs that people die in.
最有力的证据就是人们并不愿意从事这些工作。
And the best evidence is that people don't wanna work in them.
这才是最有力的证据。
Like, that's the best evidence.
根本没人争着要去偏远矿区工作。
Like, no nobody's clamoring to go work in a in a mine in a remote area.
因此,人工智能可以帮助让这种现实变得好得多。
And so intelligence can help make that reality much, much better.
人们正在看到人工智能在软件层面以各种方式取得进展。
People are seeing AI advance in all these different ways on the software side.
他们看到一个又一个模型被发布。
They see all these models being released.
它现在正在主导100%的代码编写。
It's driving a 100% of people's code now.
你真正酷的地方在于,你能看到这一领域的硬件层面。
What's really cool about you is you see the hardware side of this.
我认为对我们生活影响最大的变化之一,可能是机器人四处走动为我们做事。
And I think one of the biggest changes to our lives will probably be robots walking around doing things for us.
你有没有感觉到,机器人日常出现在我们身边离我们有多近?
Do you have a sense of just how close we are to just robots around us day to day?
所以我认为这里的表述方式再次很重要,这是一个连续谱。
So I would think about the framing here matters again on a spectrum.
比如,我们周围已经有机器人了,像扫地机器人,能在你睡觉时清洁地毯。
So there are robots around us like Zumbas, like clean your carpet while you're sleeping.
当你煮咖啡时,周围也有机器人。
There's robots around you when you make a coffee.
那是一种自动化机器,它接收输入,然后根据你的需求执行一系列操作。
There's that's an automated machine that is taking an input and doing a bunch of things based on your, you know, your what you what you need.
所以你真正讨论的是,我们能多快地沿着这个谱系前进,达到拥有一个能在极少引导下完成多项任务的机器人?
So what you're really talking about is how fast can you go up that spectrum to where you have a robot that can take on lots of tasks with little guidance?
我是这样想的:假设这个播客不是发生在2026年,而是发生在2006年。
And the way that I would think about this is, let's say we're sitting in this podcast is happening not in 2026, but 2006.
你是在问我关于手机的同一个问题。
And you're asking me the same question about mobile.
你说,手机正在兴起。
And you say, well, mobile is coming.
记住,这是在iPhone推出之前,iPhone是2007年发布的。
This is, remember, pre iPhone, which comes out in o seven.
每个人都在用翻盖手机。
Everyone has got those flip phones.
所以我们已经有一些移动设备了。
So we have some we have mobile.
这并不是说完全一无所有,对吧?
It's not like a completely you know?
所以我们身边已经有一些机器人了。
So we have some robots around us already.
但就像说,好吧。
But like it's like, okay.
那么,我们什么时候能有呢?你在2006年问我这个问题。
So what when are we gonna and you asked me in 2006.
我们什么时候才能拥有那种无所不能的《星际迷航》手机?
When are we gonna get that Star Trek phone that can do everything?
当时我认为,我根本不知道一年后iPhone就要问世了。
And I think at that time, I would say because I don't even know the iPhone is coming a year later.
我会说,莱尼,我真的不知道。
I would say, well, Lenny, I don't I don't know.
也许是一到五年吧。
Maybe it's one to five years.
而五年后,Uber、WhatsApp、Instagram、Snapchat这些产品都出现了,被数以百万计的人广泛使用。
And if it's not five years later that Uber, WhatsApp, Instagram, Snapchat are all products, and they're being consumed by many, many, many millions of people.
那么,当你回想2006年的时候,会发生什么?
So what happens when you think about sitting in 2006?
为什么你的大脑无法预见到Instagram会出现?
And why can't your brain figure out that Instagram is coming?
没有具备应用商店、前后双摄像头、普遍可用且大量人拥有的手机,Instagram 是很难想象的。
Instagram is very hard to even conceive without phones that have an App Store, have cameras on both sides, are available, generally available, that lots of people have it.
而且人们已经习惯于使用社交网络。
And the fact that people are comfortable being on social networks.
在2006年,这还处于早期阶段。
In 2006, it's still an early thing.
那时推特还没出现,脸书也不算强大。
This is pre Twitter and Facebook is not that big.
当时我的空间还在,但它并不是那种私密型社区。
And Myspace is, but it's not the same type of private kind of community.
所以我想表达的是,我认为这种变化可能来得很快,但它的形态和载体却很难预测,就像很难预见到 Instagram 会出现一样,因为那种特定硬件中的智能——关键在于‘普遍可用’——将极大地影响使用场景。
And so so the the the the point I'm making is I think it can come pretty fast, but the way and the form factor it'll come is hard to pick just like it's hard to figure out Instagram's gonna happen because the the the intelligence in that particular type of hardware, which will be generally available, that's a keyword, generally available, is really gonna impact the use cases.
所以我认为最早出现的最明显的应用场景,将是那些投入产出比最高的场景。
So I think the most obvious use cases that will come early are going to be use cases where you get the most amount of bang for buck.
而投入产出比最高的就是自动驾驶汽车,或者智能采矿机器人——也就是智能采矿车辆。
And the bang for buck is a car that drives itself or a mining robot, which is a mining vehicle, which is now intelligent.
原因是,制造这种大型挖土机械所需的全部工程工作已经完成了。
And the reason is all that, let's say, engineering required to make this giant machine that moves dirt has already been done.
这些工作在过去五十年到六十年间已经完成了。
It's been done over the last you know, fifty, sixty years.
所以你只需要为它注入一点点智能,并利用那些公司和人们早已开发出的一切。
So then you're just inputting a little bit of intelligence into it and leveraging everything else that that that the, you know, companies and and and and kind of people have developed.
所以我认为,我可不是在推销自己的书。
So I think I mean, and I'm not just, you know, pitching my own book.
我们的公司是一家物理AI公司。
I mean, we're a physical AI company.
我始终相信,我们的情感大脑之所以偏爱人形概念,是因为我们是灵长类动物。
I I I continue to believe that we're I think our brain emotionally loves the humanoid concept because of we're monkeys.
但更实际地说,真正要做的是把智能融入我们周围已有的各种事物中。
And but, actually, just, like, more pragmatically, it's actually just putting intelligence into things that already exist all around us.
我认为,一旦实现这一点,新的应用就会涌现出来,我想我们会在五到七年后开始看到这些应用。
And I think and then once that happens, the new applications will emerge, which I think we'll talk about in five to seven years, which will be which we'll start seeing.
那我们就直接往前看五年到七年,看看那时现实会是什么样子,然后也许我们可以从那里开始展望未来。
So let's let's just move forward five to seven years, and let's see what reality exists, and then maybe we can try to jump into the future from there.
我认为,总的来说,如今全球每一家汽车公司都在研发类似特斯拉FSD的产品。
I think generally speaking, every every single car company on the planet right now is working on a product that's like a Tesla FSD product.
每一家汽车公司,无一例外。
Every single car company there with without exception.
许多公司正在开发这类产品的不同版本,它们将依靠低成本的传感器套件实现完全自动驾驶。
Many, many companies are working in versions of that that will become fully autonomous within a cheap sensor suite.
所以,为了简化一切,特斯拉方案与Waymo方案的根本区别在于:Waymo方案使用大量传感器、大量计算资源和高精地图。
So the the fundamental difference, just to simplify it all, the Tesla approach versus the Waymo approach, just to really keep it simple, is the Waymo approach has lots of sensors and lots of compute and maps.
而特斯拉的方案则传感器极少,不依赖地图,也不使用高精地图。
And the Tesla version is very few sensors, no maps, no high fidelity maps.
我这里只是做一般性概括。
I'm just generalizing here.
而且成本更低,姑且这么说法。
And cheaper compete for the lack of better word.
特斯拉的这种产品,在行业内被称为L2++产品,将会无处不在,因为它确实更便宜,而且不需要高精地图。
And the Tesla version of a product, this is in the industry, it's called an l two plus plus product, is gonna be available everywhere because it's literally cheaper, and it doesn't require, like, HD maps.
Waymo的产品在地理受限的区域内表现更好。
The Waymo product functions better in a geographically constrained area.
所以,如果向前推进五年,这两种技术都会变得更加普及。
So you fast forward five years, both of these types of technologies will be much more ubiquitous.
L2++和L4技术将变得更加普及,不仅限于湾区或中国部分地区,而是真正覆盖全球。
L two plus plus and l four will be much more ubiquitous, not only in the Bay Area or in parts of China, but really globally.
全球都有公司正在研发这项技术。
There are companies working on this globally.
那么,你现在还记得吗?以前车载导航系统可是个大卖点。
So now do you I don't know if you remember, but nav systems used to be a big deal in cars.
是的。
Yeah.
那时候,人们要花几千美元购买导航系统,它几乎是人人都想要的功能。
You would pay thousands of dollars, and nav systems were kind of the thing that everybody wanted.
我们现在正处在一个关键时刻,人们愿意为半自动驾驶汽车支付数千美元。
We're at that moment for l two plus plus systems where, like, people are willing to pay thousands of dollars for an a semiautomated vehicle.
这不会需要太长时间。
It will not be a long time.
你已经看到在中国发生了这种情况,这种自动驾驶产品的价格压力正在下降,可以说几乎免费了。
You're already seeing this happen in China where the downward pricing pressure for that autonomous product, for the lack of a better word, will become close to free.
所以再过五到七年,每辆车都会具备某种级别的自动驾驶功能。
So now you fast forward five to seven years, and every car has some level of autonomy.
所以你现在必须在心理上接受这样一个现实:每个买车的人,都会直接获得FSD功能。
So now you have to, like, mentally live in that reality that everybody who's buying a car, they just get FSD with it.
现在你开始看到一个不同的世界,因为普通人不再怀疑自动驾驶是否属于某个公司。
Now you start seeing a different world because now the average person isn't wondering is self driving in a company.
他们一直在使用它。
They use it all the time.
他们不再疑惑导航系统是什么,就像CarPlay和Android Auto出现一样,这一切都显得非常自然。
They don't wonder are Navs and so what you have in Nav systems is a CarPlay emerges and Android Auto emerges, and it's very natural.
人们会说,哦,我有手机。
People are like, oh, I have my phone.
我只要插上就行了。
I just plug it in.
这并不是一场巨大的革命,但CarPlay和Android Auto的变革实际上非常巨大。
And and it wasn't a big revolution, but the CarPlay and Android Auto revolution is actually huge.
它为你的汽车带来了免费的导航和免费的应用程序,并且已经非常普及。
It brings free navigation and free applications to your car, and it's fairly ubiquitous.
所以,我认为在五到七年后,完全自动驾驶将成为每个人期待的标准。
So And I think the next thing that happens in five to seven years is then full autonomy becomes the thing that everyone expects.
因此,我认为这一切都会带来伤害和死亡的明显减少,因为有某种智能在帮助你、帮助你的乘客。
And so I think and all of that, and you will see a clear decrease in injuries and death because of that, because you have some intelligence helping you help help your audience.
不过,我再次使用消费级汽车的类比,只是为了让人更容易理解,但建筑领域也是如此。
Now, again, I am using the consumer vehicle analogies just so people can understand it, but this is the same in construction.
采矿领域也是如此。
It's the same in mining.
在国防领域也是如此。
It's the same in defense.
在每一个这些垂直领域都是如此。
It's the it's in every one of these verticals.
这些大型物理机器与人类互动,人机协作才是未来。
There's these big physical machines that humans are interacting with that teaming up with that machine is the future.
仅仅通过你与机器互动——不是把它当成有意识的生命体,而是把它看作是你想要完成某项任务时的物理代理——这种生产力的释放带来了许多难以想象的改变。
The productivity unlock from just you looking at a machine, not like a sentient being, but but but almost like an a physical agent of something you're trying to accomplish unlocks things that I think are very hard to think about.
所以我喜欢像Motebook这样的东西,我也喜欢所谓的OpenClaw革命——尽管这个说法可能不够准确。
So I I love, you know, you know, things like Motebook, and I love the, let's say, OpenClaw revolution that's happening for the lack of a better word.
但我认为,这种巨大影响目前仍只涉及社会中非常小的一部分。
But I think the big impact, that's still that's still such a small part of society.
我衡量影响力的标准是,比如你去底特律机场,在登机口坐下。
My my my my barometer of impact is, like, you go to, you know, the the Detroit Airport, and you sit in a gate.
然后你环顾四周,心想:这里有多少人正在使用OpenClaw?
And you look around, and you're like, how many people here are using OpenClaw?
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这就像,让我深入了解一下,也许你是唯一知道这是什么的人。
And it's like, let me look into, like like, you might be the only person who knows what that is.
而其他人呢,他们都在过自己的生活。
And and whereas everybody, they're living their lives there.
所以对他们来说,人工智能的影响实际上会体现在这个物理世界中。
And and so it's like to them, actually, the the impact of AI is gonna be in this physical physical world.
我看到你也有的一些,是的。
I see you also have a you have some yeah.
就是这样。
There you go.
出去。
Out.
我信服了。
I'm a convert.
OpenClaw。
OpenClaw.
给你。
There you go.
完美。
Perfect.
彼得很快就要上线这个机器人了,我这边有一些不对称的加成。
Like, Peter's coming on the bot soon, I got some some lopsided plus.
是的。
Yes.
我认为,未来五到十年人工智能真正的影响将体现在农业、采矿、建筑和自动驾驶卡车领域。
I think I think the real impact of AI in the next five to ten years really is gonna be in farming, in mining, in construction, in self driving trucks.
这才是你能产生真正影响的地方。
That's where you're gonna have a real impact.
不过我觉得,尽管我很喜欢这些平台上发生的一切,但它们仍然只局限于开发者,以及社会中非常非常小的一部分人群。
Though I think I mean, I I I love the stuff that's happening on on these platforms, but it's still segregated to, like, frankly, developers and some some a small very, very small part of society.
我原本没打算在这里待这么久,但这实在太有趣了,我认为让人们听到像你这样的人对未来的看法非常重要。
I wasn't planning to spend so much time here, but this is extremely interesting, and I think it's important for people to hear from folks like you about where things are heading.
因为正如我所说,每个人都只是在问:到底发生了什么?
Because as I said, everyone's just like, what is happening?
我的未来会怎样?
What is gonna be my future?
工作这件事非常有趣,最近这个播客中出现的一个观点是,人们担心AI会夺走他们的工作,但事实上,AI的到来恰逢其时,能够拯救我们,因为人口正在减少,人们正在老龄化,我们需要某种东西来帮助应对这个问题。
The jobs piece is really interesting, and a thread that has emerged on this podcast recently is that people are afraid AI will take their jobs, but in reality, AI is coming just in time to save us because populations are declining, people are aging, and we need something to help us there.
我知道这正是你和——哦,马尔克也谈过的话题,你和他们关系很近。
I know this is something you and, like, this is something Marc talked about, and you're really close to them.
帮帮我们,让我们对AI不会夺走我们的工作、反而会拯救我们这一点感觉更好一些。
Help help us feel better about just how AI isn't gonna take our jobs and actually gonna save save us.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,坦率地说,这些行业确实需要自主性。
I think I think, honestly speaking, these industries, like, they need autonomy.
我的意思是,这来得再及时不过了,说实话。
I mean and and and and and it and it couldn't come soon enough, frankly speaking.
这不是人们在争夺那些卡车司机的工作。
This is not like people are not fighting for those trucking jobs.
如果你看看农民,农民的平均年龄在五十五六岁左右。
If you look at farmers, the average age of a farmer is in their late fifties, 58 or so.
那么十年后这意味着什么?
What what does that mean in ten years from now?
这意味着许多农民将会退休,如果他们还没退休的话。
That means many of those farmers are going to be retiring if they're not already retired.
再过二十年,我们会面临更大的问题。
And twenty years, we have even a bigger a bigger problem.
顺便说一句,每个行业都是如此。
That, by the way, is every verticals like that.
我的假设是,不同于有些人说的,比如麦当劳招不到人,或者本地服务找不到人,人都去哪儿了?
And I you know, my hypothesis here, but unlike you know, sometimes people say, like, you know, McDonald's can't hire or, like, you know, the the mind local query can't hire and where are all the people?
人其实还在那里。
The people are still here.
我认为这种权衡已经不值得了。
I think they just the trade off is just not worth it anymore.
在二十世纪八九十年代,跑长途卡车工作意味着家庭必须做出牺牲——父亲一走就是好几天甚至几周。
In the nineteen eighties and the nineteen nineties, doing the long haul trucking job was what the family has to sacrifice, the father not being there for for days and weeks on end.
而今天,同样的工薪家庭可以做出这样的选择,说:你知道吗?
And today, that same working class family has can make that decision and say, you know what?
我宁愿去开Uber或者DoorDash。
I will drive for Uber or DoorDash.
我愿意这么做,因为我可以随时关掉应用去接孩子,我把这个放在首位。
And I'm willing to do that because I can turn that app off and pick up my kid, and I prioritize that.
我认为,这种在现实世界中的智能革命,才是真正能填补这些缺口的原因,而不是整个行业突然消失并被自动化取代。
The the that is where I think this, you know, this this kind of intelligence kind of revolution in the real world is really, I think, is gonna fill those gaps in rather than, like, an entire industry suddenly gone, and it's just automated.
我不相信那种未来,主要是因为用机器人完全取代一个行业,现实中的复杂性仍然太高。
This is this is this is this is I I don't believe that future, mainly because the realities of actually, you know, replacing an entire industry with robots is is is still well, that's too complex.
总有一天会发生,但不会在近期内发生。
One day it will happen, but it's not happening anytime soon.
但到那时,整个社会都会不同。
But the entire society will be different by that point.
而且我认为,再次以工业革命作为很好的例子。
And I think, again, use the industrial revolution as as a good version of that.
我,你知道,之前的问题,如果我不是人工智能生态系统中的一员,却有这种焦虑,我该如何应对?
I the, you know, the the earlier question, if I'm somebody who is not in the AI ecosystem and I have this anxiety, and how would I deal with it?
阅读历史书籍是真正理解社会如何应对这一问题的好方法。
Reading history books is a great way to really understand how society deals with this.
而且有很多相关文献。
And there there's a lot of literature.
因为工业革命不像基督教诞生之初那样,当时很少有人写作,也很少有人阅读。
Because industrial revolution doesn't happen like, you know, in the dawn of Christianity where not many people are writing and not many people are reading.
有很多人在写作。
Lots of people are writing.
在过去的一百五十年里,有很多人在阅读。
Lots of people are reading in the in in the last hundred and fifty years.
你可以阅读那些受到工业革命影响的人以及从中受益的人的著作,总体而言,这是一段非常积极的经历。
And you can read both the people who are impacted by the industrial revolution, people who are benefiting from the and writ large, it's a very positive experience.
但这并不意味着,同样地,没有负面影响。
And that doesn't mean there again, there are downsides.
我们应该减轻这些负面影响。
We should mitigate the downsides.
但我们不能做的是,这或许是美国或全球社会整体的一种倾向,即我们想要踩下刹车——再次强调,不要说AI,要说技术。
But the thing that we can't do, and this is maybe specifically as America or society as as the the global population as a whole, there's this impetus to say, like, we gotta pump this brake on, again, don't say AI, say technology.
对技术踩下刹车。
Pump this brake on technology.
问题是,美国经济最终会陷入停滞,这对劳动力市场最底层的影响远超其他人。
The issue then is the American economy really ends up stuttering, and that impacts the lowest end of the labor market labor market way more than anybody else.
因此,为了帮助最边缘化的人群,我们反而最严重地伤害了他们。
And so in the attempt to help the people who are the most marginalized, we actually hurt them the most.
你知道,欧洲和美国之间的统计数据是非常明确的。
And the the, you know, the the the statistics between Europe and America are, you know, been have been have been are pretty explicit.
但在过去十年中,美国经济实际上以快得多的速度增长了。
But in the last decade, basically, the American economy is is now, you know, grown at a much higher pace.
而这种增长并非来自密歇根州的底特律。
And that growth hasn't come from, you know, Detroit, Michigan.
这种增长来自山景城,也来自森尼韦尔。
That growth has come from Mountain View, and it's come from Sunnyvale.
它来自湾区。
It's come from the Bay Area.
这另一种说法是,这是因为新兴前沿技术的发展。
And which is another way of saying it's because of new frontier technologies.
因此,由于害怕意外后果而对前沿技术施加限制,实际上会对那些试图帮助最弱势群体的人造成切实的负面影响。
So putting brakes on frontier technologies because we're afraid of unintended consequences will actually have real intended consequences on people who are trying to help the most.
而现实是非常根本的。
And the reality is very, very fundamental.
在一个不照顾美国普通工人和普通民众的未来,我们将面临更大的问题。
In a future that does not take care of the average worker and the average person in America, we'll have much bigger problems.
所以我们需要一个能考虑到这一点的解决方案。
So we need a solution that takes that into account.
但这个解决方案不仅仅是踩刹车,说人工智能不好,或者前沿技术不好,或者技术不好,或者其他你不喜欢的任何东西。
But that solution isn't just pump the brakes, AI is bad, or frontier technology is bad, or technology is bad, or whatever, you know, whatever thing that you you don't like.
我认为这会产生非常、非常糟糕的后果。
I think that that that'll have really, really bad consequences.
我们不踩刹车的原因之一,只是出于对中国和与中国竞争的恐惧。
One of the reasons that we don't pump the brakes is just fear of China and competition with China.
最近的例子就是那种手柄机器人,让人惊呼:‘天哪。’
The nunchuck robots being a recent example of like, oh, shit.
我知道你对中国构成的威胁以及他们做事方式的看法有点反主流。
And I know you have kind of a contrarian take on just how much of a threat China is and how they're approaching things.
简而言之,我们公司最近读了一本书叫《华为之家》,这是一本非常棒、有趣的书。
The summary version of this is I think the way you we we recently read as a company, we read this book House of Huawei, which is this really great, interesting book.
华为是一家非常了不起的公司,因为它制造了出色的技术。
And Huawei is a really amazing company for the reason that it makes great technology.
但华为有大约十万人,其中四分之一是共产党员。
But the couple 100,000 people that work at Huawei, about a quarter of them are members of the Communist Party.
华为的目标并不是追求利润或股东回报。
And Huawei's goal is not to grow profits or shareholders.
这是一家私营企业。
It's a private company.
它实际上是国家的延伸。
It's really an extension of the state.
所以, literally,‘华为’这个名字意味着中国的雄心。
So literally, the name Huawei means China's ambition.
想象一下,如果你有一家名为‘MAGA’的公司,其中一半或四分之一的员工属于某个政党。
So imagine if you had a company called, you know, MAGA, and half of the company or a quarter of the company was a certain political party.
他们说,我们的目标不是盈利,我们的目标只是扩张——它甚至已经不再是公司了。
And they said our goal isn't to make profits or to our goal is just the expansion of it's not even a company anymore.
它变成了别的东西。
It's it's it's something else.
对吧?
Right?
所以我认为,当我们——具体来说,当我们提到美国人时,我们对中国的理解是错误的。
And so I think we incorrectly when we I mean, specifically speak of Americans, we think about China.
我们把自己的市场和公司观念投射到中国身上。
We impart our understanding of markets and companies onto China.
所以我们认为华为既然生产手机,就一定和苹果一样。
So we think Huawei, since they make phones, they must be just like Apple.
不是这样的。
It's like, no.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
实际上,华为和苹果根本不一样。
Actually, there's not that's not like Apple at all.
所以,我想对所有关注中国、尤其是带着焦虑看待中国的人说,你们并不是在将公司与公司做比较。
And so I think the first thing I would implore everybody who thinks about China, especially with anxiety in America, is you're not comparing companies to companies.
这根本不是苹果对苹果。
This is this is not apples to apples.
这非常、非常不同。
This is very, very different.
所以,与其认为OpenAI在和DeepSeek竞争,不如说OpenAI是在和中国政府竞争。
And so imagine instead of thinking OpenAI is competing against, you know, DeepSeek, you say OpenAI is competing against the Chinese government.
与其说苹果在和华为竞争,不如说苹果是在和中国政府竞争。
Instead of Apple competing against Huawei, Apple's competing against the Chinese government.
你甚至可以去掉‘中国政府’这个词。
And you can even remove the word Chinese government.
‘政府’这个词最能定义这个组织的性质,但它并不是一个以盈利为目的、私有、独立的团体,共同开展项目来开发和销售产品。
Government is the best word to to define what this organization is, but it's not a for profit privately owned independent group of people who are working on projects together to build build products to to market.
所以,这是第一件非常重要的事。
So that's the first very important thing.
你不能把中国当作另一个美国、另一个欧洲或其他任何地方来对待。
You cannot treat China like another America or another Europe or another whatever.
第二点是,如果你的目标不是盈利,你就能做出惊人的研究,而且非常有说服力。
Number two is if your goal isn't to make profits, you can do incredible research, and it can be extremely compelling.
但正如我们所见,如果一个系统不可持续,那它也不是一家公司。
But like we've seen, if you're if the if the if the system is not sustainable, that's also not a company.
这是不可持续的。
That's not sustainable.
让我举一个非常鲜明的例子。
Let me give a very stark example of that.
中国电动汽车被高度赞誉为一种极其有趣的产品。
Chinese EVs are really lauded as being this exceptionally interesting product.
对吧?
Right?
你不断看到大量相当肤浅的分析,说看中国多厉害、多糟糕。
And and and you constantly get the streamer of, I would say, fairly shallow analysis, which says, look how good China is and look how bad.
慕尼黑、底特律、东京,还有太阳能,这些都是全球汽车业的中心。
Munich, Detroit, Tokyo, solar, the other others epicenters for automotive globally.
在美国有一家中国式的电动汽车公司。
There is a Chinese EV like company in America.
它叫Rivian。
It's called Rivian.
它生产很棒的产品,但制造这些产品时亏损严重。
Makes great products, but they lose a lot of money making those products.
因此,这家公司的估值并不高。
And therefore, the company is not very highly valued.
我觉得如果你说湾区前50或前100家公司,我不确定Rivian是否能进入这个名单。
I think if you said top 50 or top 100 companies in the Bay Area, I'm not sure Rivian would really even make that list.
这并不是因为产品不好,或者Rivian的员工无能或不努力。
And it's not that the products are bad or the people at Rivian are incompetent or they're not working hard.
只是这个行业本身非常艰难。
It's just the business is a tough business.
电动汽车业务在汽车行业是一个艰难的行业。
The EV business in automotive is a tough business.
那么我们该如何面对这些现实呢?
So how can we hold these realities?
所以我们说,看看这些中国电动汽车公司有多厉害,再看看本土团队有多差。
So we say, look how amazing these Chinese EV companies are, and look how bad the home team is.
这只是因为本土团队是被当作一家企业来评估的。
It's just because the home team is being assessed for being a business.
它必须盈利。
It has to make profits.
因为它做不到,所以受到公众投资者的猛烈抨击。
And because it doesn't, it gets hammered by public investors.
另一件事甚至算不上一家公司。
The other thing is not even a company.
如果我们进行公平对比,你会发现美国只是必须造出优秀的电动汽车。
Now let's if we do it apples to apples, you'll see America just has has to build great EVs.
这意味着,如果把特斯拉和其他所有公司加在一起,而且我们不在乎利润,我认为美国会推出非常出色的产品,甚至会有令人惊叹的产品。
That means Tesla and everybody else combined, and we don't care about profits, I think America would field some very good products, and there would be wow products.
所以这些比较其实非常不准确,我认为这造成了误解。
So it's the the comparisons are really, really off, and I think that's creates a misunderstanding.
我想,也许最根本的哲学问题是:
I think, you know, then the low maybe the most philosophical question.
中国能成功吗?
Can China succeed?
这是否意味着美国必须失败,或者反过来?
And does that mean America has to fail or vice versa?
如果你相信开放和自由的市场,你就相信每个人都能在这些市场中取得成功。
If you believe in open and free markets, you believe everybody can succeed in those markets.
这一点在过去一百多年里已经被证明了。
And that's been proven for over a hundred years.
我认为我们现在所经历的是:中国如何在这个生态系统中发挥作用?
And I think what we're experiencing right now is how does China play in that ecosystem?
因为我主张开放和自由的市场,而这些并不是开放和自由的市场。
Because I set open and free markets, and those are not open and free markets.
但这并不意味着我们必须处于对抗关系。
And so but that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to have an antagonistic relationship.
这当然不意味着中国无能。
It certainly doesn't mean that China's incompetent.
这更不意味着我们不需要关注它,不需要投入我们的注意力。
And it certainly doesn't mean that it's not doesn't warrant our attention and that our our kind of, let's say, focus.
但这也不是一对一的比较。
But it's also not a one to one comparison.
我认为我们在暗示这是一对一比较时,必须非常谨慎。
I think we should be very careful in implying it's a one to one comparison.
顺便说一句,这种五分钟的解释永远无法传达给坐在密歇根州底特律机场等航班的普通人。
And by the way, that, like, five minute explanation is never gonna get to the average person sitting at an airport in Detroit, Michigan waiting for their flight.
他们所接触的全部信息就是‘中国很糟糕’。
They just all they consume is China bad.
就像,根本不是那样的。
Like, it's like, that's not it's not like that.
事情没那么简单。
It's not that it's not that simple.
这要复杂得多。
It's way more nuanced.
本集由Lovable赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Lovable.
他们不仅是历史上增长最快的公司,我经常使用,而且我再怎么推荐都不为过。
Not only are they the fastest growing company in history, I use it regularly, and I could not recommend it more highly.
如果你曾经有过开发应用的想法但不知从何入手,Lovable就是为你准备的。
If you've ever had an idea for an app but didn't know where to start, Lovable is for you.
Lovable让你只需与AI聊天,就能构建出可用的应用和网站。
Lovable lets you build working apps and websites by simply chatting with AI.
然后你可以对其进行自定义、添加自动化功能,并部署到真实域名上。
Then you can customize it, add automations, and deploy it to a live domain.
它非常适合正在快速搭建工具的营销人员、原型设计新想法的产品经理,以及正在启动下一个创业项目的创始人。
It's perfect for marketers spinning up tools, product managers prototyping new ideas, and founders launching their next business.
与无代码工具不同,Lovable 并不是关于静态页面的。
Unlike no code tools, Lovable isn't about static pages.
它能构建具有真实功能的完整应用程序。
It builds full apps with real functionality.
而且速度很快。
And it's fast.
过去需要数周、数月甚至数年才能完成的工作,现在一个周末就能搞定。
What used to take weeks, months, or years, you can now do over a weekend.
所以,如果你一直搁置了一个想法,现在就是让它实现的时候了。
So if you've been sitting on an idea, now is the time to bring it to life.
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Get started for free at lovable.dev.
那就是 lovable.dev。
That's lovable.dev.
所以你最近决定加入Twitter,并发布了你的第一条推文。
So you decided to join Twitter recently, put out your first tweet.
你的第一条推文只是说:‘嗨,我要开始发推了’,这条推文获得了大约两百万次浏览,马斯克回复了你,马克·安德森转推并评论说:‘这是最伟大的AI创始人,却没人知道,关注他获取免费的内幕信息。’
Your first tweet was just like, hello I'm gonna start tweeting, that tweet got like 2,000,000 views, Elon replied to you, Marc Andreessen, quote tweeted it and said this is the best AI CEO nobody knows, follow for the free alpha.
著名投资人埃拉德·吉尔将你描述为AI领域最成功却最低调的公司。
Elad Gil, famed investor, describes you as the most successful, most quiet company in AI.
对我来说,这非常有趣,因为大多数创始人被建议要‘公开构建’、积累粉丝、高调宣传、不断谈论自己在做什么,而你却反其道而行之,完全不引人注目,保持安静,持续构建、构建、再构建,直到后来才决定:好了,现在是时候讲述我们的故事了。
And to me this is really interesting because most founders are told, build in public, build a following, be loud, get out there, talk all the time about what you're doing, you did the opposite, you're very into the radar, stay quiet, build, build, build, and then decided later, okay now time, it's time to talk about our story.
所以我认为这种反主流叙事非常有趣,我相信会激励许多创始人不再觉得必须这么做。
I So think this counter narrative is really interesting, and I think will inspire a lot of founders to not feel like they have to do this.
你当初保持沉默、默默起步的哲学是什么?
What was your just philosophy of just start staying quiet and then starting?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
这是个很好的观点。
It's it's a it's a great point.
首先,这是有意为之,而且如果由我决定,我们会一直这样下去。
So number one, it was intentional, and and I think if it was up to me, it would we would do that forever.
我们深受像伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样公司的启发,而不是像硅谷的热门公司那样。
I think we're very much inspired by folks more like a Berkshire Hathaway and less like, you know, let's say, a Silicon Valley darling.
我会解释我为什么改变了看法,但在其他创始人立即照搬这条建议之前,我要说明:我能这么做,是因为我在业内已经有一定知名度。
And the I'll I'll tell tell why I changed the views and then just but before some founders go and take that advice, you know, immediately without without really thinking about it, I can do that because I'm known in the ecosystem.
我认识这些人的个人。
You know, I know these folks personally.
所以我并不需要建立一个让埃拉德记住我、想到我的公众形象。
And so I don't need to have a brand out there that is getting Elad to remember me and think about me.
如果我是在创办前两家公司时,还没在YC中崭露头角,知名度很低的话。
And so if you're if I'm doing my first two companies, were a lot less known is before I really became to YC.
所以,我们公司的所有价值观都可以归结为两个词:激进的实用主义。
So you know, all of our company values can be reduced to these two words of radical pragmatism.
所以在采纳建议之前,确保它适用于你的情况。
So before you take the advice, make sure it applies to your situation.
其中一个原因是,我们的投资者兼朋友纳瓦尔说,名声本身就像一种工具,而且非常强大。
One of the reasons and Naval, who's one of our investors and and a friend, says, fame itself is like a tool and it's and it's powerful.
如果你没有人脉,但能积累一批追随者,那将是招募员工、吸引投资者支持你的使命,以及吸引客户的一个绝佳方式。
Now if you don't have a network and you can get a following, that's a fantastic way to get to recruit people to your company, to recruit investors to your mission, and then, of course, you know, the customers.
但对我们来说,我认为十多年前这并不是一个硬性要求。
And so but for us and I think I think that wasn't a hard requirement, you know, ten ten plus years ago.
另一点是,我认为彼得和我,就像那句老话所说,人生往往是先做事情,然后再为自己的行为找理由。
The other thing is I think Peter and I you know, the the old saying about life is kind of like you do things and then you rationalize the thing that you do.
对吧?
Right?
所以从根本上说,我和我的联合创始人彼得·卢德维希,都不太能从做非常公开的事情中获得情感上的满足。
So I think fundamentally, Peter and I, we don't get a lot of my cofounder Peter Ludwig, we don't get a lot of emotional satisfaction out of doing very public things.
如果我要当个纸上心理学家,试图深入挖掘背后的根本原因,超越‘专注于客户、专注于产品’这种理性观点的话——
And I think if I was really to play armchair psychologist and really try to get to the root of why beyond the rational view, which is focus on your customers, focus on the product.
你每花一分钟做播客,每花一分钟发一条X动态,每花一分钟写公开内容,你就少了一分钟用来专注在客户和产品上,而你的时间是非常有限的。
Every minute you're doing a podcast, every minute you're doing an x post, every minute you're writing something for public consumption, you're not focusing your very limited time that you have on your customers and your product.
最终,这才是唯一能产生实际成果的事情。
And, ultimately, that's the only thing that's gonna produce and yield results.
但如今的现实情况是,即使像我们这样已经有一定知名度的公司,或者像我这样在生态圈里被人熟知的人,仍然希望把更广泛的信息传播出去。
But the but the the the, you know, the the reality of the situation today, know, 2026, is even a company like us that's known or or somebody like me that's known in the ecosystem, you still wanna get that broader message out.
这就是我在X上稍微提到的一点内容。
That's what I talk a little bit a little bit about on on on x.
这确实是一种反主流的观点,但并不是为了反主流而反主流。
So it's a it's it is definitely contrarian, but it's not just contrarian for contrarian sake.
它在一定程度上反映了我们自身的心理。
It plays a little bit of our of our own psychology.
我想再补充一点,我从小成长的经历是,我是个移民。
And then I would say just to just to finish that thought there is, you know, I grew up you know, I'm an immigrant.
我小时候从巴基斯坦来到美国。
I came to The US from Pakistan when I was a kid.
有个有点奇怪的名字,你会觉得,你知道的,我从小在密歇根州的底特律和沃伦长大,给所有在家的人说一下。
Have a little bit of a weird name, and you feel like, you know, anybody I grew up in in in Detroit and Warren, Michigan specifically for all those at home.
当你感觉自己稍微有点被社会边缘化,或者不属于主流,这种感觉会引发一些人的共鸣,但并不是每个人都感同身受,你会对主流持高度怀疑态度。
And when you feel that you're a little bit on the edge of society or you're not maybe in the mainstream, and this is, you know, resonates with some people, that's not as as resonate with everybody, you feel very skeptical of the mainstream.
这些年来,你一直站在外面。
These are just on the outside for so long.
我认为,很多创始人的心理状态其实都可以追溯到这种被排斥的感觉。
And I think you can trace a bunch of founders' psychology to this feeling of being an outcast, actually.
于是你发现自己身处一种境地,比如成了YC的首席运营官。
And so then you find yourself in a situation where you're like the y you know, c COO of YC.
而‘我是个局外人’这种叙事,确实是这样的。
And the narrative of I'm an outsider is like yeah.
我不确定还有什么比当YC的首席运营官更‘主流’的了。
Like, I don't know if there's anything more inside than being, you know, the YC COO.
对吧?
Right?
所以我认为,在我的职业生涯中,这种和解也必须发生,也许这本身就有点奇怪。
So I think, that reconciliation, I think, over the over my career also has has has had to happen, which is like maybe that's just kind of a weird weird kind of thing.
因此,当我与马可·安德森、埃尔德或其他任何人交谈时,他们认为你应该把过去的包袱和创伤留在背后。
And so when I talked to, you know, Marc Andreessen, who who's who really pushed me to go go online or Elad or whoever it is, their view is leave your baggage and your trauma, you know, in the background.
让我们更务实一点。
And, really, let's let's think more pragmatically.
而这里的务实做法是,无论我是否喜欢做这些事情,从根本上说,它有助于传播信息。
And the pragmatic thing here is whether I like to do these types of things or not, fundamentally, it helps get the message out.
这个信息可以非常微小且狭隘,比如物理AI和机器如何变得智能,也可以非常宏大,即我们正在经历的这场根本性变革在社会中带来了什么变化。
And the message can be something very small and myopic, like what's happening in physical AI and machines become intelligent, or much larger, which is what's what's happening in society through this, you know, fundamental change that we're going through.
我有幸经历了或说见证了完整的经济光谱。
I I I've had the rare privilege or the, you know, experience of seeing the full economic spectrum.
我真的看到了两个极端,我真的是认真的。
You know, I've I've really seen the extreme ends of both sides, and and truly, I I really mean that.
所以像马可这样亲近我们公司的人会说,这些想法值得传播出去,而不仅仅是为了推广你的公司或类似的东西。
And so somebody like Marc, who is close to our our our company says, well, that's a those are some ideas that are worth getting out beyond just, you know, you're there promoting whatever some you know, your company or something like that.
而这一点我确实认同,那就是关于理念的辩论与讨论,以及这些技术变革对社会造成的影响。
And and that I actually I that I can get behind, which is like the debate and discussion about ideas and what's happening to our society because of these technical changes.
所以,我就在这里了。
And so, you know, here I am.
太棒了。
Amazing.
好的。
Okay.
我想跟进几个方向。
So there's a few threads I want to follow there.
一方面,你提到在Y Combinator担任COO时,近距离接触了很多初创公司,这是你第三个自己创办的公司。
One is, were, as you said, COO at Y Combinator, you saw a lot of startups up close, you had, this is your third startup on your own.
我经常听到你说,成功的公司几乎总是很早就展现出势头。
Something that I hear you talk about is that successful companies almost always show traction very early.
很多创始人却说:不,继续坚持,也许我们就像Figma或Notion那样,四年之后才能找到出路。
A lot of founders here are like, no, just keep fighting and maybe we'll be the next Figma Notion four years in, we'll figure it out.
你在那里有什么经验?对于那些早期没有看到增长的创始人,你有什么建议?
What's your experience there, and what's your advice to founders who aren't seeing traction early?
微妙之处。
Nuance.
我的意思是,如果我要再创办一家公司,我会把它命名为‘微妙’。
I mean, if I was starting another company, I'd call it Nuance.
对吧?
Right?
我认为你说的是对的。
So the the the I think what you're saying is correct.
我始终相信,优秀的企业通常在早期就能展现出增长势头,并能持续十年以上。
I've I I continue to believe that I think good companies tend to be tend to have traction fairly early and then just sustain it for a decade plus.
对于那些正在苦苦挣扎的创始人,假设你在听,你已经创业两年了,却在筹集资金、打造第一款真正被消费者或企业喜爱的产品上遇到困难——无论是通过关注还是收入,两年都是最艰难的时期。
To the founders that's toiling, let's say if I you're listening and you're about two years into your company and and you're maybe having a tough time building getting money and building that first product that consumers or or businesses really love, either through attention or dollars, two years is a very is the difficult time.
我使用的经验法则是:如果从市场获得的信息没有让我越来越清晰地看到一条具体路径,我就会考虑重新开始。
The heuristic that I would use is if I'm not if the information I'm getting from the market is not informing me on a more and more specific path, I would consider resetting.
我所说的‘重置’,通常是带着YC的身份,见过成百上千家公司后得出的结论:很多时候,创业的基石——也就是联合创始人的组合——根本就是错的。
And what I mean by reset is oftentimes and this is wearing my YC hat, seeing hundreds and thousands of companies, is oftentimes is like the cofounding, literally the foundation upon which the house is built is not correct.
想象一下,你建了一栋房子,每次你放一杯水上去,它都会从桌上滑落掉到地上,你难道一直在调整桌子吗?
It's like, imagine you built this house, and every time you put a cup of water and it slides off the table and it falls on the ground, and you're do you keep adjusting the table?
也许问题根本出在地基上。
It's like, maybe the foundation is actually wrong.
整个房子都歪了。
The whole house is off kilter.
这个地基可能不仅仅是你的联合创始人。
And that foundation might not only be your cofounders.
也可能是你所处的市场。
It could be the market that you're in.
也可能是你当前的人生阶段,以及你愿意为这件事投入多少努力来使其成功。
It could be the phase of life that you're in and the amount of effort that you're willing to put into that thing in order to make it successful.
公司失败的原因有很多。
There's a bunch of reasons that a company can fail.
你必须能够承认:我不知道原因是什么。
And you have to be able to somehow say, I don't know what is the reason.
我只能在这里彻底重置了。
I'm just gonna have to hard reset here.
我想对创始人说的一点是,创建一个属于创始人的社群本身。
One thing I would tell founders, and I tell is creating a founder class in itself.
曾在Applied Intuition工作过的人,现在都在创办自己的公司。
People who've worked at Applied Intuition are now starting their own companies.
你知道,我们有一千多名工程师,随着时间推移,他们都在创办自己的企业。
You know, we have a thousand plus engineers and over time, they they're they're they're starting their own firms.
我对他们所有人说:想象一下,你第一次创业的头三年,结果就是零。
And I say to all of them is, just imagine the first time you're gonna do a startup for the first three year, it's a zero.
彻底放下对成功的期待,把自己当成一名手艺人。
Just rid yourself of the expectation that it's gonna be successful and that you're really and you're you're a craftsperson.
如果这是一档关于木工的播客,你说你做的第一张桌子摇摇晃晃,你不会说:那去Crate and Barrel上班吧。
If we were make if we're if this is a woodworking podcast and you said, you know, the first table that you built was, you know, what was wobbly, you wouldn't say, well, go work at Crate and Barrel.
你会说,哦,这是第一张桌子。
You'd say, oh, that's the first table.
我们会继续努力。
We're gonna we're gonna keep at it.
当创始人本身就是一种肌肉,你需要锻炼这种肌肉。
Being a founder is its own muscle, and you want to exercise that muscle.
但我认为很多创始人,尤其是在创业初期,给自己施加了巨大的压力,希望一上来就做到完美,反而错过了第一轮真正能获得的东西——学习和锻炼这种肌肉。
But I think a lot of founders, especially early in their founding career, put such an incredible pressure on themselves to make it great out of the gate that they actually miss the thing that you're getting in that first round, which is learning and building that muscle.
还有第二轮、第三轮。
And the second, third time.
我认为我的第三家公司最成功,并不是偶然。
And I I think it's not random that my third company is the most successful company.
我认为这很常见,你经常会看到这种情况。
I think I think that's the I think and that you see that more often than not.
确实有一些基金几乎专门投资于多次创业的创始人,正是出于这个原因。
There are funds which are almost exclusively focused on multi time founders, right, for for for this reason.
我喜欢这个建议的地方在于,最好的想法往往来自于你期望值很低的时候。
What I love about that advice is often the best ideas come from when you're you have low expectations.
你只是在玩玩而已。
You're just playing around.
你只是在捣鼓。
You're just tinkering.
你并不是想着我要打造下一个伟大的、我不知道的,谷歌。
You're not like, I'm gonna build the next great, I don't know, Google.
你只是在享受乐趣。
It's just you having fun.
而正是这样,我才找到了我现在所处的这个领域、这条道路,OpenClaw 就是一个很好的例子。
And that that's, like, how I found this world that I'm in right now, this path, and OpenClaw is a good example of that.
我认为这个建议之所以这么难执行,是因为当你听到这番话时,如果你正身处所谓的战争中,你会想:这些人在说什么啊?享受乐趣?
I think what's why that advice is so difficult is if you hear this and you're like, you know, you're in you're in the you're in the proverbial war, you're like, what the hell are these people talking about having fun?
我觉得这真的很难。
I think this this this is hard.
因此,你必须在脑海中同时保持这些看似对立或冲突的观点——它们极其重要,你应该全力以赴,但同时又没那么重要。
And so you have to, like, hold these contra like, contrasting kind of or conflicting views in your head, which is like, it's deeply very, very important, and you should give it your all, and it's also not that important.
要协调并维持这种平衡,真的非常困难。
And that's a really hard thing to reconcile and keep keep in balance.
你当初处理这家公司的方式,就是那样保持沉默,我认为这非常有帮助,因为你没有。
And the way that you approached this company where you stayed quiet like that, I think helps a lot where you're not.
没错。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
就像在YC时,当我成为COO,我告诉萨姆·阿尔特曼(他是总裁),我们先别对外宣布这件事,至少一年内不要。
It's it like, the you know, even like at YC when I became COO, I I told Sam Sam Altman was the president, and I told Sam, let's not announce this for, like, a year.
因为,如果合伙人并不希望我担任COO,那这件事就算不上成功。
Because, you know, if the partners don't want me to be COO, it's not a successful thing.
我不需要面对公众的审视和压力,比如为什么你只当了六个月的COO之类的。
I, you know, I don't have the pressure of the public of public scrutiny that, you know, why were you COO only for six months or something like that?
我认为,作为创始人和作为一个人,你必须对自己非常诚实,这些事情很重要。
And I think you have to be very honest with yourself as a founder and as a human being that those things matter.
别人对你的看法很重要,它会影响你自己。
What people think about you matter, and it impacts yourself.
而且你要处在聚光灯下。
And be having the spotlight on you.
你知道,我总是说,在融资之前、在雇佣员工之前,调整方向是非常容易的。
You know, the the I always say it's very easy to pivot before you raise money and before you have employees.
没人会在意。
No nobody cares.
一旦你融资了,更重要的是,一旦你雇佣了员工,员工们是带着一个明确的使命加入的。
The moment you raise money and the more importantly, the moment you hire employees employees joined a very specific mission.
当你走进办公室,里面有十个人。
And you go and you you walk into the office, and there's 10 of them.
你对他们说:伙计们,结果发现这个方向是错的。
You say, guys, turns out this isn't wrong.
我们正在转向一个不同的使命。
We're going on a different mission.
想象一下,如果这是一场战争。
Imagine if this was war.
这简直太荒谬了。
It's like, what the hell?
我们刚刚还在攻打那座山头,现在却说那座山头根本不重要。
We just we're attacking that hill, and now we just say that hill is not important.
你怎么知道下一座山头就重要呢?
Like, how do you know the next hill is important?
作为领导者,你会失去很多信誉。
And you, as a lead, you lose a lot of credibility.
这不仅仅是因为作为领导者显得不可信这么表面的问题。
And And it's not only for the superficialness of being a credible leader.
更实际的是,当你非常公开地做这些事时,创业公司就变成了你的身份。
It's a practical nature of when you're very, very public, they become the the startup becomes your identity.
然后突然间,你不得不承认,那件事其实并不正确。
And then suddenly, you're you're having to reconcile that actually that thing is not correct.
所以我们公司有这些核心价值观。
So it's it is one of our our our we have these core values in the company.
在公司早期,我曾经有一句话说:我们最好的工作是在独处和安静中完成的。
And in in early in the company, I used to have this line which says, our best work is done alone and quietly.
我深深相信这一点。
And I I deeply believe that.
所以对于创始人来说,我会这样看待它。
And and so founders, I would I would think of it that way.
但这出于实际的考虑。
But it's for pragmatic reasons.
并不是因为躲在聚光灯外很酷。
It's not like some just because it's cool to be under the radar.
它只是让你能稍微更安静地工作。
It's it's it's just allows you to maybe work in a bit more peace.
我非常喜欢你迄今为止分享的这些核心价值观。
I love these core values you've shared so far.
最后一个,最好的工作是独自安静地完成的。
This last one, the best work is done alone quietly.
我完全赞同这一点。
I'm so on board with that.
你之前提到的另一个是激进的实用主义。
Radical pragmatism is the other one you shared earlier.
还有没有其他几个?
Are there are there a couple more there?
这些真的是珍宝。
These are these are gems.
是的。
Yeah.
这些可以说是元价值观。
We Those are like, I would say the meta values.
我们有一些非常具体的运营原则。
We have very specific, let's say, operating principles.
这些建议非常实际,是我能给创始人们的最实用的建议。
And this is real, as tactical as advice I can give to founders.
当你刚开始取得一些进展时,就确立你的价值观。
Come up with your values when you're getting a little bit of traction.
我这么说的原因是,在早期阶段,你确立价值观的方式不是像哲学家那样思考:‘我们应该有什么样的价值观?’
And the reason I say that is early enough where you And the way you come up with the values is not like, what values should we have as philosophers?
不,不是那样的。
No, no.
你应该弄清楚:我们为什么能成功?
You should figure out why are we being successful?
直接写下那五到十项让你取得成功的具体原因。
Literally write down the five to 10 things that are the reasons you are being successful.
这些就是你的价值观,然后你就可以去阅读和反思了。
And those become your values and you kind of read.
所以我们这么做了。
And so we did that.
因此,我们的第一条原则是速度至上。
And so our first one was going to speed above everything.
就是我们要快。
And it was like us being fast.
第二条是永远不要让客户失望。
The second one is like never disappoint the customer.
技术精通。
Technical mastery.
高产出很重要。
High output matters.
比如一些不那么明显的,像多笑。
Like, all the way down to, like, you know, ones that are not obvious, like laugh a lot.
从公司创立之初,这就是我们的核心价值观。
That's been our core value from at the beginning of the company's history.
当你在处理高强度的工作时,如果你没有保持冷静、拥有全局观的能力,那么笑声和幽默也能提供一种微妙的反馈,让你不至于只说‘这太糟了’,而能说‘这还不是最好的’。
And it's like when you're working in intense things, if you don't have the ability to keep grounded, have perspective, laughter and humor also is a way to get subtle feedback and a slightly different taste than this sucks, you can say it's not the best.
这实际上是在构建一种框架,让人们学会如何在公司内部彼此相处。
And and that is slightly so you're you're really creating the framework in which people are learning how to behave with each other within the company.
所以今天,这些价值观对我们而言几乎就像指导原则一样。
And so today, the values really serve us as almost like a they're like guiding principles.
因此,我们每周都会举办新团队会议,彼得和我都会与所有新成员见面。
And so I you know, we do new team meetings that every week, Peter and I, we meet all the all the new team members.
我们几乎总是会以某种深度和细节来讨论这些价值观。
And we're almost always just talking about the values in in some some level of detail and depth.
是的。
Yeah.
另一个价值观是:一半的工作在于跟进。
Another value, half of the work is follow-up.
比如做笔记和后续跟进。
Like, just taking notes and following up.
这就是商业的本质。
That is the business.
并没有那么复杂。
It's not more complex than that.
多笑是我最喜欢的新公司价值观。
Laugh a lot is my new favorite company value.
听起来是个很棒的工作地方。
Sounds like a wonderful place to work.
关于最后一点,有一本刚刚由Stripe Press出版的书,讲的是维护工作,以及维护在工作中多么重要却常被忽视。
And on the last piece there, there's this book that just came out by Stripe Press about maintenance and how valuable and underappreciated the maintenance part of work is?
完全正确。
Absolutely.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,如果你从我的一些理念中能得出一个启示,比如我们一开始聊到的,为什么‘推广’这个词会有这么多负面含义。
I think, like, if there if there's a takeaway that you get from, let's say, a bit of my philosophy on on, where we, you know, we started the conversation around, like, why you know, being promotional has all these negative connotations in it.
但我确实很谨慎使用这个词。
But I'm, yeah, I'm careful using that word.
但为什么不推广呢?
But why not be promotional?
因为任何事情都有代价。
It's because there's costs to everything.
所以,如果你能专注于技艺,把产品做得非常好,并且认真倾听客户的声音,你就更有可能取得成功。
And so if you can focus on the craft and making the product really, really good and really listening to your customers, you have a much higher likelihood of success.
然后你就可以再进一步去扩大规模。
And and then you can you can always then go and and and scale that.
这其中就包含了你提到的那部分内容。
A part of that is the thing that you're talking about.
维护,或者用另一种说法,我的背景是汽车工程。
Maintenance or another version of in in you know, my my roots are in automotive engineering.
汽车工程实际上是一场关于质量的实践。
And automotive engineering is actually a exercise in quality.
这正是它的本质——你正在大规模地制造这些极其复杂的机器。
That's that's really what it's you're you're building these very complex machines at scale.
人们总说火箭极其复杂。
You people talk about rockets being really, really complex.
你只需要每隔几天发射一次火箭就行了。
You only gotta send up a rocket even at the highest like, once every couple of days.
而你每三十秒就要生产一辆汽车,还得让它成本极低,并且在全球范围内具有竞争力。
You're making a car every thirty seconds, and you have to make it extremely cheap, and it's globally competitive.
因此,你会深入理解工厂运作的细节和细微之处。
So the you really get into the nuance and minutiae of how a factory runs.
而工厂的核心是安全和维护。
And a factory is about safety and maintenance.
其实并没有太多复杂的东西。
It is not there's not a lot of complex things.
这只是因为,当你拆解什么是运营上的强大时,就会明白。
It's just you know, it's like when you when you break down what is being operationally, strong.
运营上的强大就是关注少数几件事,并确保你把这些事做得非常好。
Operationally strong is keeping an eye on a handful of things and make sure you're doing them really, really good.
我就是那种相信这句格言的人:无法掌控自己的人,不配去领导他人。
And I'm I'm one of those believers that there there's this adage is a man who cannot command himself is not fit to command others.
而维护这一方面,正是其中的一部分。
And it's like that maintenance aspect is a part of that.
对吧?
Right?
就像,如果你在自己的工作中保持自律,维护好你的团队,维护好公司,产品几乎就是从整个系统中自然涌现出来的。
It's like, well, if you maintain yourself in your own work, you maintain the your team, you maintain the company, the products are almost they they come out of all of that that that system.
我认为很多创始人并没有把公司看作一个系统,或者几乎像一台机器。
And I think a lot of founders don't think about their company as a system or almost as a machine.
但我恳请你这样去看,因为那样你才会真正专注于这台机器的工艺,建造它,让它更洁净、更精密。
But I I would implore you to do that because then you really focus on the craft of the machine and building the machine and making it more hygienic and and and and and making it more well tuned.
就像你会遇到一些特别爱车的人,他们真的会 obsess 于汽车的保养。
Just like, you know, you'll you'll meet people who really love cars, and they they really obsess about the maintenance of cars.
你知道的吗?
You know?
比如,他们会细致地清洁驾驶座底下,就像我平时保养自己的车一样。
Like like, they will they will detail, like, underneath the driver's seat as somebody who details my own cars.
没人会去看那里,但这种做法背后是同一种理念——非常重视工艺,而且坦白说,你的时间有限,很难既专注于某件事,又让公司保持整洁有序。
Like, nobody's gonna look at that, but it's under that same ethos of of really caring a lot about the craft and being a a a and frankly speaking, since you have limited amount of time, it's hard to really care about x and also making your making your companies hygienic.
在公司发展的不同阶段,你应该做不同的事情,但这就是一种基本理念。
And and there's different reasons at different points of your company that you should do different things, but that's kind of a little bit of the ethos.
我喜欢这一点,它不断回归到保持安静,专注于做事,而不是空谈。
I love how it keeps coming back to just staying quiet, working just working on the thing and not talking about it.
你刚才最后那一点让我想到,成绩自然会水到渠成。
Your point last point there makes me think of that the score takes care of itself.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
乔·蒙塔纳实际上是我们的一位投资者。
So Joe Montana is actually one of our investors.
在我们的D轮之后,估值会水到渠成。
In our series d post, the post was the valuation takes care of itself.
我们确实属于这一类。
Like, very much we fall into that category.
有时候人们会来我们的办公室,说:哇,你们的办公室真干净。
And it's like it's like, you know, sometimes people will come to our office and they'll say, oh, like, it's like such a clean office.
你们一定有个庞大的保洁团队吧。
You guys must have, like, this giant cleaning staff.
但实际上,是我们自己打扫办公室。
And it's like, actually, we clean our office.
就像我在日本时提到的,日本学校里就是这样。
The just like in Japanese school, as I mentioned, I lived in Japan.
就像学生会自己打扫学校。
Like, the students clean their clean their own schools.
我们每周都会进行一次清洁禅修,每个人都会清理自己周围的区域。
We have a cleaning zen every week, and everyone cleans the area around them.
我认为重要的是,这种理念还意味着不要过分沉溺于自己的叙事中,比如‘我是斯坦福的软件工程师,我做人工智能’。
And I think it's important that, like, there's something about this ethos of, like, also, like, not getting so wrapped up in your own narrative of, like, I'm a Stanford software engineer, and I do AI.
就像,把自己的桌子收拾干净。
It's like, clean up your desk.
所以有一些类似这样的基本事情。
So there's, like, some, like, basic things like that.
我不知道这种更大的哲学到底是什么,但它确实是我们逐渐追求的一种理念。
And I don't know what that larger philosophy is, but it is a philosophy that we we we kinda drive towards.
我认为,我们引以为傲的一点——虽然听起来有点疯狂——就是公司历史上从未花过任何一笔融资款,这听起来几乎像是编出来的。
And I think, like, you know, our claim to fame, which is kind of a crazy, you know, reality is we've never spent any money we've ever raised, you know, in the history of the company, which is kind of it almost sounds like it's made up.
公司已经快十年了,拥有上千名工程师。
It's the company is almost ten years old, you know, a thousand engineers plus.
所以我们是一家在不使用所筹集资金的情况下正常运营的企业。
And so we're a functioning business without using capital that we've raised.
我认为这和我们打扫办公室 somehow 有联系。
And I think it's somehow connected to us cleaning the office.
我不知道是怎么联系的。
I don't I don't know how.
但这些打扫的开销都算进去了。
But it's all these cleaning costs.
对吧?
Right?
这一切
It all
都说得通。
makes sense.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我们仍然有专人负责清洁,但我们的员工也对自己的周围环境保持警觉。
We still have people, like, you know, clean, but we also are our employees also are aware of their surroundings.
我认为,安静独处、整理桌面与写出优秀的软件之间有着直接的联系。
And I think there's a direct line between be quiet and alone and clean your desk and well written software.
我不知道那究竟是什么,但这一切都属于同一个脉络。
And I don't know what that thing is, but it's all falls in the same arc.
我知道你们为了保持整洁,也有不穿鞋进入的政策。
I know you also have a no shoe policy for that same reason to keep things clean.
是的。
Yeah.
这也受到日本的影响。
And it also influenced by Japan.
我想我曾在日本工作过,那时我们的办公室布局也很相似。
I think the the you I worked there, and we we had a similar office setup.
另一种思考方式可能是,因为我只是想把我所知道的一切都传授给创始人,我觉得这就是我的责任,毕竟这些信息如此有限,而每个人实际上都在摸索着前进。
The other the other other way to think about this maybe as again, if I'm just trying to impart everything I've known to founders because I feel like that's my you know, that that's who that's who that that information is so limited, and everyone's kind of trying to make it up, frankly
说起来。
speaking.
阿尔法。
The alpha.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
我恳请各位创始人,努力汲取日本、德国、中国、底特律和硅谷的最佳经验。
Is I would implore you as a founder to really try to take the best of Japan and the best of Germany, the best of China, the best of Detroit, the best of Silicon Valley.
有时候人们会引用史蒂夫·乔布斯的那句话,然后严重曲解它,说伟大的艺术家都是剽窃者。
And and, you know, I think sometimes people take that Steve Jobs line, and they really, like, you know, deform it where they say, like, great artists steal.
他真正想说的是,这个观点更谦逊的版本是:保持谦逊,向周围的一切学习。
What he's really talking about is is, like, the less the less magnanimous version of that is be humble and learn from everything around you.
作为领导者,要博学多才。
And as a leader and be well rounded.
我认为阅读应该是这样的,你知道,查理·芒格说过,我从未见过任何非常成功的人不一直阅读,我也完全属于这一类。
I think like reading is should be you know, I I I there's a Charlie Munger line where he says, I've never met anybody very, very successful who doesn't read all the time, and I, like, very much fall into that category as well.
所以如果你去深入思考为什么是这样,为什么读纸质书会让你成为一个更好的创始人?
And so if you, like, unpack why that is, like, why does reading a physical book make you a better founder?
我就直接问这个问题:我不是在读,尤其是我的阅读理念是读老书。
Like, I just, like, ask that question in the most direct way is I'm not reading you know, if you especially my my ethos of reading is read old books.
不要读任何新书。
Don't read anything new.
读老书,因为时间已经过滤掉了大量噪音。
Read read old books because time has filtered out a lot of the noise.
所以你能获得大量有价值的讯息。
So you get a lot of signal.
在你的一生中,你可能会读上千本书。
And in your life, you you're gonna a thousand books, maybe, you'll read.
在最好的情况下,你大概会读50到100本书,这对普通人来说已经相当惊人了。
Like, in the best case scenario, you're gonna read probably 50 to a 100 books, which is kinda crazy for the average person.
所以你读的书不会很多,那就别读低质量的内容。
So you're not gonna read many, so don't read low quality content.
世界上确实存在一些真正的人类思想基石。
You read there are there are true pillars of of kind of of human ideas out there.
你吸收这些思想,然后由你自己去解读,这些思想如何反映在你所领导的事业或开发的技术上。
You consume those ideas, and then it's up to you to interpret how those ideas then reflect upon the business that you're leading or the technology that you're developing.
我坚信阅读像《马尔科姆·X自传》这样的书会让你成为一个更好的创业者。
I absolutely believe reading a book like Malcolm X's autobiography will make you a better founder.
而且这整个过程,从《清净禅》到《洁净外套》,都是相通的。
And it's not and again, it's like the whole Cleaning Zen all the way to Clean Coat.
这并不是直接一一对应的。
It's not directly one to one related.
我们总是想要这种非常简单的如果那么的陈述。
I think we always want these very simple if then statements.
但我认为,作为一个全面发展的创始人,理解你周围的社会和历史, somehow 能让你打造出更好的产品。
But I think being a well rounded founder where you understand society around you and history around you, that somehow makes you build a better product.
我不清楚具体怎么和为什么,但我认为这绝对是正确的。
And don't know how and how and why, but I think it absolutely is true.
我确实看到了那里存在某种联系。
I I I do see a connection there.
像查理·芒格这样的人,虽然不是AI领域的创始人,但也相信这一点,我认为这背后存在某种模式。
Then And people like Charlie Munger who are not an AI founder, obviously, also believe that, and I I think so that there's some some pattern there.
这很有趣。
Like, it's interesting.
这是一样的。
This is the same.
这是对大语言模型的一种隐喻。
It's a metaphor for LLMs.
你把所有数据都喂给他。
You feed all his data.
不知怎的,它们几乎变得有意识了。
Somehow they become almost conscious.
这是怎么发生的?
How does that happen?
没人能完全理解。
No one no one fully knows.
你和马克·安德森在思维方式和内容消费方式上如此相似,这真有意思。
It's so interesting how similar you are to Marc Andreessen and your way of thinking and the way you consume content.
就像,我们都秃顶。
Like, there's a We're both bald.
这里有一条线索,说明了什么是真正成功的关键要素。
There's a thread here of just here's how here's here's important ingredients to being really successful.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,Marc,你知道,我们足够幸运,可以自己选择投资者,这确实是一种特权。
I mean, Marc, I mean, you know, we're we're fortunate enough to choose, you know, our investors, and and that's a true privilege.
我在第一家创业公司时并没有这种待遇。
I didn't have that in my first company.
我们花了好几年时间。
We spent years.
我们一分钱都没融到。
We didn't raise a dollar.
所以,我当然非常珍惜这一点。
So I don't I'd I'd certainly appreciate it.
但如果说我曾经有过导师,Marc 就属于那种类型。
But, you know, if I've ever had, like, a a mentor, you know, Marc would fall into that category.
所以在 Applied 之前我就认识他了,我们经常争论和交流。
And so I knew him before Applied, and we we debated and talked a lot.
我认为马克试图也是这样的。
And I think Marc is also like that.
对吧?
Right?
他实际上会大量阅读我们这个小行业之外的内容。
He really consumes content actually outside of this little industry that we're in.
我认为这让他成为一个更好的投资者。
And and then I think it makes him actually a better investor.
是的。
Yeah.
我们会推荐大家去你的网站。
You're we'll point people to your website.
你列了一份你推荐和喜爱的书单,非常长,而且和通常看到的很不一样。
You have a list of the books that you recommend and love, and it's very long and very not what you often see.
我忍不住想问,有没有哪几本书对你思想和生活影响最大?
I can't help but just ask, are there a few books that have most influenced your thinking, most influenced your life?
是的。
Yeah.
这份书单是我经过深思熟虑才整理出来的。
That list is like, I've very thoughtful been thoughtful about about that.
我之所以用《马尔科姆·X自传》这样的书作为例子,是因为我知道它并不在榜单前列。
And the reason I I I use books like hit the, you know, the autobiography of Malcolm X as an example is I know that's not on the top of the list.
如果我说《高产出管理》或者安迪·格鲁夫的经典著作,大家肯定都知道。
Everyone's gonna you know, if I say high output management, classic Andy Grove That's right.
你们都了解这些。
You guys know that.
所以这部分是书单里的。
So it's partly book here.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
这既是表演的一部分,为了让你感到有趣,同时也为你提供新的信息。
It's, like, partly the theatrics of also entertaining you, but also giving you new information as a as a as a listener.
我觉得,我目前正在读的这些书,是一些比较随意的选书。
I think, like, a good the books I'm currently reading, this is kind of a random, you know, slot of books.
比如,我正在读一本新出的《编码氛围》这本书,我们整个公司都在重读,这本书某种程度上违背了我的思维惯性。
Like, I'm reading the the vibe coding book that came out that where our whole company's re reading that, which is a new book, and it kinda goes against my grain of my heuristic.
但《万病之王》这本关于癌症的书,是一本绝佳的书。
But The Emperor of All Maladies, the cancer book, fantastic book.
我快读完了。
I'm almost done with it.
我觉得它改变了我的思维方式。
I think it changes the way I think.
读完它之后,你会改变看待问题的方式,我认为这才是终极的检验标准。
Like, read that and it changes the way and I think that's the ultimate test.
当一段材料改变了你对生活的原有认知时,这就是好的。
When a piece of material changes your existing framing on life, this is good.
在大语言模型的使用场景中,这在某种程度上相关,因为多样化的数据能让您对世界的理解更加丰富和细腻,因此更好。
In the LLM use case, this is somehow related in the sense of diverse data makes your understanding of the world more rich and nuanced, and therefore, it's better.
但确实。
But yeah.
所以,我总是受到启发,去提供更古怪的例子,而不是那些显而易见的。
So, like, I'm always inspired to give, like, more wacky kind of examples rather than than the other obvious ones.
但那些显而易见的例子,我觉得其实并不够戏剧化,我认为山姆·沃尔顿的《美国制造》是一本不可思议的书。
But the obvious ones that I find really wasn't wasn't, you know, wasn't being theatrical, I think Sam Walton's book, Made in America, is a unbelievable book.
它非常好。
It's very, very good.
他是在临终前写下的这本书。
He wrote it on his deathbed.
你知道,我的美国之旅也非常好。
You know, my American Journey is also very good.
保罗的书。
Paul's book.
它不在我的网站上,但真的很好。
It's not it's not on my website, but it's it's really good.
你知道,我一直在努力连接这些线索,从我们作为穴居人到现在生活在硅谷、作为风险投资支持的AI公司创始人。
You know, I I'm I'm I'm somebody who tries to connect some of these dots from, like, us being, you know, cave people to now, like, living in, you know you know, Silicon Valley working as a venture backed AI company founder.
因此,像《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》这样的书真的名列前茅。
And so guns books like Guns, Germs, and Steel really are top of that list.
一本很棒的书,或者《崩溃》,也是同一个作者写的。
A fantastic fantastic book or Collapse, also same author.
是的。
So yeah.
但我对创始人们想说的是:去读这些书吧。
But my my my point to the to to founders is read the stuff.
你仍然可以去实体书店。
You can still go to physical bookstores.
读一些既古老又备受推崇、而你却完全不了解的著作。
Read the stuff that is both old and well regarded and you know nothing about.
我经常在寻找下一本要读的书时,想起我是怎么选中《SPQR》这本关于罗马历史的书的——当时我想,我对罗马历史其实知之甚少。
I often when I'm trying to find the next book to read, like, remember the way I picked up SPQR, which is the book on on Roman history, was like I was like, I don't actually know a lot about Roman history.
我只知道一些宏观的内容。
I know the high level stuff.
想想宇宙中所有那些领域吧,从哲学到历史,从耆那教到日本封建国家的兴起。
So, like, think about all the ideas in the universe from philosophy to history to, Jainism to the rise of Japan as a feudal state.
找找那些你真正不了解的领域,然后去找到那个领域里最好的书。
Like areas you don't really know, and then just find the best book in that space.
我觉得这样你就能慢慢填补知识的空白了。
And I think you just start filling in the blanks.
所以,我常常就是用这种方式来理解一个生态系统:我到底对什么一无所知?
And so often, that's kind of like the way that I grok the ecosystem is like, what don't I know anything about?
然后让我去找到那个领域里最好的资料。
And let me co find the best piece of material in in in that.
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