为什么ChatGPT将成为下一个重要增长渠道（以及如何从中获利）| Brian Balfour（Reforge）

人们总是在抱怨。SEO已死，无法增长，口碑传播太难了。

Everyone's always complaining. SEO is dead. It can't grow. Word-of-mouth is so hard.

新分销平台的所有要素基本上都已具备。我预测，新的分销平台将是ChatGPT。有诸多迹象表明他们即将推出这个平台。

All of the ingredients for a new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT. There's a bunch of signals that they're about to launch that.

这对企业来说是个巨大的机会，要抓住它。

This is a huge opportunity for companies to get on it.

最终会变成囚徒困境。别自欺欺人地认为你可以不参与这场游戏。周期似乎越来越短，所以你实际拥有的时间更少。如果你不行动，你的竞争对手会转向新平台，而客户的期望也会改变。你无法选择退出

It ends up being a prisoner's dilemma. Don't trick yourself into thinking that you can't play the game. The cycles seem to be getting shorter and shorter, so you actually have a smaller amount of time. If you don't do it, your competitors are gonna go to the new platform and your customer expectations change. There is no opting out of

这场游戏。这是颠覆现有巨头的机会。

the game. This is the opportunity to disrupt an incumbent.

如果你是成熟企业，你可以多下注。但对初创公司来说，情况完全不同。你必须选择一个并

If you're a late stage company, you place multiple bets. For startups, it's a totally different ballgame. You have to choose one and

全力以赴。想想像Zynga这样的公司，它们在Facebook上成长起来，然后成为巨头。

go all in. Think about companies like Zynga that grew on Facebook and then became massive companies.

打造优秀产品是必要条件之一，但并不足够。实际上，真正的分水岭在于能否建立卓越的分销渠道。

Building a great product is one of those things that's necessary but not sufficient. And actually, the separation is between those that build really great distribution.

如果不是Jack J.

What would be the backup if not Jack J.

B. Keith，备选会是谁？我认为最有可能占据优势的人选其实是。

B. Keith? My hypothesis of who's best positioned would actually be.

今天，我的嘉宾是布莱恩·巴尔弗。布莱恩是Reforged的创始人兼CEO，这家公司是我长期以来的粉丝和支持对象。历史上，Reforged主要专注于教授产品和增长课程。但最近，他们转型开始打造自己的产品，包括一款名为Reforged Insights的产品，以及更多非常酷的东西即将推出。在加入Reforged之前，布莱恩曾在HubSpot负责增长业务。

Today, my guest is Brian Balfour. Brian is the founder and CEO of Reforged, a company that I've been a longtime fan and advocate of. Historically, Reforged has focused primarily on teaching courses on product and growth. But more recently, they've transitioned to building their own products, including a product called Reforged Insights and a bunch more really cool stuff coming very soon. Prior to Reforged, Brian led growth at HubSpot.

在他的职业生涯中，他见证了包括Facebook广告平台、Google广告和SEO、苹果应用商店在内的每一个主要分发渠道的兴衰。根据他的观察，他预测一个全新且强大的分发渠道将在未来六个月内出现，很可能围绕ChatGPT展开。新增长渠道的出现非常罕见。距离上一个渠道出现已经很久了，而那些认识到这一点并尽早抓住机会的人将获得最大的回报。因此，这是一件大事。

And over the course of his career, he has seen the rise and fall of every major distribution channel, including Facebook's ad platform, Google Ads and SEO, and the Apple App Store. Based on what he's seeing, he is predicting the emergence of a brand new and powerful distribution channel that will likely arise in the next six months centered most likely around ChatGPT. It is really rare for a new growth channel to open up. It's been a long time since the last one appeared, and the people who recognize this and hop on it early are the ones that reap the most rewards. So this is a huge deal.

在这次对话中，布莱恩分享了他的预测、他的观察、为什么这是一件大事，以及你现在应该采取的行动。我强烈建议你听完整个对话，并与你的团队讨论其影响。如果你喜欢这个播客，别忘了在你最喜欢的播客应用或YouTube上订阅和关注。此外，如果你成为我新闻通讯的年度订阅者，你将免费获得一系列令人难以置信的产品，为期一年，包括Lovable、Replic、Bold、n eight n、Linear、Superhuman、Descript、WhisperFlow、Gamma、Perplexity、Warp、Granola、Magic Patterns、Raycast、ChappyRD和Mobin。访问lenny'snewsletter.com并点击product pass查看详情。

In this conversation, Brian shares what he's predicting, what he's seeing, why this is a big deal, and what you should be doing about it right now. I highly recommend you listen to this full conversation and discuss the ramifications with your team. If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube. Also, if you become an annual subscriber of my newsletter, you get a bunch of incredible products for free for one year, including Lovable, Replic, Bold, n eight n, Linear, Superhuman, Descript, WhisperFlow, Gamma, Perplexity, Warp, Granola, Magic Patterns, Raycast, ChappyRD, and Mobin. Check it out at lenny'snewsletter.com and click product pass.

接下来，请欢迎布莱恩·巴尔弗。今天的节目由DX赞助，这是一个由顶尖研究人员设计的开发者智能平台。要在AI时代蓬勃发展，组织需要快速适应。但许多组织的领导者难以回答一些紧迫的问题，比如哪些工具在发挥作用？它们是如何被使用的？

With that, I bring you Brian Balfour. Today's episode is brought to you by DX, the developer intelligence platform designed by leading researchers. To thrive in the AI era, organizations need to adapt quickly. But many organization leaders struggle to answer pressing questions like which tools are working? How are they being used?

真正驱动价值的是什么？DX提供了领导者应对这一转变所需的数据和洞察。通过DX，像Dropbox、booking.com、Adyen和Intercom这样的公司可以深入了解AI如何为他们的开发者创造价值，以及AI对工程生产力产生了什么影响。了解更多信息，请访问DX的网站getdx.com/lenny。

What's actually driving value? DX provides the data and insights that leaders need to navigate this shift. With DX, companies like Dropbox, booking.com, Adyen, and Intercom get a deep understanding of how AI is providing value to their developers and what impact AI is having on engineering productivity. To learn more, visit DX's website at getdx.com/lenny. That's getdx.com/lenny.

本节目由Basecamp赞助。Basecamp是37 signals公司出品的著名直观项目管理系统。大多数项目管理系统要么功能不足，要么复杂得令人沮丧，但Basecamp却清晰明了。它简单易上手，易于组织，Basecamp的可视化工具帮助你清楚地看到每个人在做什么以及所有工作的进展情况。将所有文件和项目相关的对话直接与项目本身联系起来，这样你总能知道东西在哪里，而不必不断切换上下文。

This episode is brought to you by Basecamp. Basecamp is the famously straightforward project management system from 37 signals. Most project management systems are either inadequate or frustratingly complex, But Basecamp is refreshingly clear. It's simple to get started, easy to organize, and Basecamp's visual tools help you see exactly what everyone is working on and how all work is progressing. Keep all your files and conversations about projects directly connected to the projects themselves so that you always know where stuff is and you're not constantly switching contexts.

经营企业很难。管理你的项目应该很简单。我一直是37 signals所做工作的长期粉丝，非常高兴能与大家分享这一点。在basecamp.com/lenny注册一个免费账户。与Basecamp一起取得进展。

Running a business is hard. Managing your projects should be easy. I've been a longtime fan of what thirty seven signals has been up to, and I'm really excited to be sharing this with you. Sign up for a free account at basecamp.com/lenny. Get somewhere with Basecamp.

布莱恩，非常感谢你来到这里，欢迎回来

Brian, thank you so much for being here, and welcome back

播客。是的，谢谢邀请。对这次对话感到兴奋。我真的很期待

to the podcast. Yeah. Thanks for having me. Excited for this one. I'm really excited to

你的回归。我们直接进入主题。基本上，你发现了一个非常重要的趋势，或者说关于未来产品如何以不同方式增长的洞察，关于增长如何变化的洞察。我认为很多人需要听到这一点。所以我邀请你来分享你的观察。

have you back. We're just gonna dive right in. Essentially, you've uncovered a a really important trend, or insight about how products are gonna grow differently in the future, how growth is changing. And this is something that I think a lot of people need to hear. So I asked you to come on to share what you're seeing.

我也认为时机非常恰当。你说过，大概在未来六个月内情况可能会有重大变化。所以我真的很期待这次讨论。我们会把整个对话都聚焦在这个洞见上。为了铺垫，这个大概念究竟是什么？

I also think it was just very timely. I think you said, like, you're gonna say in the next, like, six months, things might significantly change. So I'm really excited to do this. We're gonna spend this whole conversation on this on this insight. To set us up, what is just the big idea?

什么是

What's the

这里的高层理念？就像你一样，我整个职业生涯都充满激情地研究初创企业，探索如何打造能在新市场中脱颖而出的制胜产品。随着时间的推移，我学到或者说经常听到很多人强调：要成功，就必须打造出卓越的产品。很多建议都归结于此。而我在职业生涯中多次碰壁后才真正明白，打造伟大产品虽是必要条件，却远远不够。

high level idea here? Just like you, I've spent my whole career just, like, really passionate about startups, you know, figuring out how to build products that win, that emerge in new markets. And, one of the things that I have, you know, learned over time or one of the things you hear a lot is from a lot of folks is, to win, you have to, like, really build a great product. A lot of the advice kind of boils onto that. And one of the things that I feel like I've banged my head against the wall in a lot of ways in my career is actually telling people that building a great product is one of those things that's necessary, but not sufficient.

真正的分水岭在于能否构建强大的分销网络。有位叫亚历克斯·兰普尔的普通合伙人——他在安德森·霍洛维茨基金工作——实际上在十年前，大概是2015年2月写过一篇博客。文章核心观点是：初创企业的本质是一场与时间赛跑的游戏，要在行业巨头模仿前建立起自己的分销渠道。对吧？

And actually, the separation is between those that build really great distribution. And so, this general partner, his name's Alex Rample. He's, at injuries and war Horowitz, actually wrote this blog post ten years ago, back in, like, I think, like, 02/2015. In the essence of the blog post, he basically says, one thing, which is that startups is a game of trying to get distribution before the incumbent can copy. Right?

这有点像宇宙逃逸速度的概念。基于这个观点——我认为它很好地概括了初创企业在分销领域的努力方向——我们现在所处的环境中，初创企业比巨头更快建立分销渠道的竞赛在很多方面都变得异常艰难，只有少数情况下稍显容易。如果我们分析变难的原因，许多创始人或从业者可能深有体会的一点是：当今行业巨头的模仿速度更快了。也就是说，你实现'逃逸速度'的时间窗口实际上缩小了。

So it's this kind of concept of escape velocity. And and so, you know, on that note, right, which I think is like a very good summary of, like, what you're trying to do in a startup in distribution is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups kinda getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier. But if we think about this the way that it's gotten harder and some of the things that probably a lot of founders or or folks working on the side that probably feel is that one is that incumbents can copy faster these days. Right? So that window that you have to get that escape velocity has actually shrunk.

它，它减少了。第二点是，我们过去几年所依赖的大量有机流量分发也大幅萎缩。大家都在讨论SEO的衰落和点击量的下降，但在其他一些案例中也能看到这种现象。对吧？许多社交平台实际上不再允许你向网站导流那么多流量了。

It's, it's decreased. The second thing is that a lot of the organic distribution that we've had, especially over the past few years, has really shrunk as well. So everybody's talking about the decline of SEO and clicks declining, but you also see it in some other cases. Right? A lot of these social platforms don't really let you send as much traffic to sites.

你知道，领英刚刚调整了算法，导致有机分发量急剧下降。显然，推特向X平台的转型也发生了。对吧？TikTok几乎一直都是这样。而第三个变得更困难的原因是，AI在编写软件方面确实很擅长，特别是在代码生成领域。

You know, LinkedIn just changed their algorithm, which has really dropped organic distribution. Obviously, the the Twitter to X transition that happened. Right? Like TikTok's almost always been like that. And then the third way that it's gotten harder is that AI is really good at writing software, right, in cogeneration.

所以每个人都感受到了这种竞争的无限加剧，尤其是在初创企业层面。YC每期都在批量孵化六个同质化项目。对吧？这就是最直观的感受。所以难度确实大大增加了。

And so everybody's kind of feeling this infinite increase of competition, especially at the startup level. And YC is pumping up six of the same thing every single cohort. Right? Like, that's what that's what it literally feels like. So it's gotten way harder.

这场游戏，这场突破临界点的游戏，已经变得困难得多。只有在极少数特殊案例中变得更容易，比如Cursor这样的项目，AI就像火花塞一样起到了催化作用。你写过关于赛车引擎的博客，我记得你提到过火花塞在引擎中的作用。对吧？

This game, this escape velocity game, has gotten a lot harder. It's gotten easier in some very exceptional cases, like a cursor or something where AI has kind of been like the spark. You know? I know you wrote, the blog post about the race car engine, and I think you said, like, there's, like, the spark plug in the engine. Right?

因此AI确实创造了一种新型的火花，激发了早期采用者的兴趣，在短时间内催生了一些新玩家。像Cursor这样的产品能在九个月甚至更短时间内抢占GitHub Copilot的市场份额，这种速度令人惊叹。对吧？变革就是如此迅猛。

And and so AI kind of really created that, a a new type of spark, a new type of interest of early adopters to to to fuel some some new players in a short period of time. Right? And so it's amazing to see something like Cursor overtake market share of something like GitHub Copilot in nine months or less. Right? Like, that that's how fast it happens.

这有点疯狂。但人们需要理解的关键是，好吧，如果这就是我正在参与的游戏，那么如何在现有巨头之前实现高速增长？有哪些方法可以做到这一点？并且真正搞清楚这些方法。

It's kinda crazy. But the main thing that people need to understand is, okay. Well, if that's the game I'm playing, right, how to get to steep velocity before the incumbent? Like, what are all the ways to do that? And and to really figure that out.

这有多种实现途径，但最主要的方式之一——我们反复观察到的最重要途径是：当新的分发平台出现时就会发生这种情况。因为新平台出现时，初创企业通常能最快抓住机会，而现有巨头反应较慢。这本质上给了初创企业参与这场游戏的机会。大约两年前（可能是18个月前），凯西·温特斯写过一篇关于人工智能技术变革的博客文章。

And there's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major major ways that we always see is that, this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge. And because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them. It's slower for the incumbents to move. It gives startups this opportunity essentially to play this game. So Casey Winters wrote this blog post about two years ago, maybe, like, eighteen months ago about, the AI technology shift.

他的核心观点是：AI技术变革至今尚未伴随分发渠道的变革。纵观历史，我们经历过互联网、云计算、移动端、社交媒体等多轮技术变革——其中有些催生了新的分发平台和产品推广方式，有些则没有。但最具影响力、最强大的变革总是伴随着新分发平台的出现。他的第二个关键观点是：这两者实际上并非同步发生。

And his key point was the AI technology shift has been a technology shift that has not come with a distribution shift yet. So if you look historically, we've had a bunch of technology shifts from, you know, the Internet, to the cloud, to mobile, to social, like all of these different types of things. And some of them come with distribution new distribution platforms, new ways to distribute products, and some of them don't. But the most powerful ones, the most impactful ones are the ones that do come with these new distribution platforms. And so, his second key point was that these two things don't actually happen at once.

通常先出现技术变革，随后才会出现分发渠道的变革。现在距离那篇文章已过去几年，我们正处于AI技术变革的进程中。而我观察到的是：新分发平台诞生的所有条件、所有要素正在逐步形成。我认为我们正处在一个转折点，很快就会见证这个平台的快速崛起。

Usually you get the technology shift, then you get the distribution shift a little bit later. So now we're a couple years from that post. We are a couple years into AI technology shift. And one of the things that I am seeing is all of the conditions, all of the ingredients for a new distribution platform to emerge are essentially happening. And so I think we're at an inflection point where we're going to see this emerge really fast.

大家需要知道的关键是：新分发平台的出现总会遵循相同的四步循环，这就像一场所有人都在参与的游戏。就像任何游戏一样，你需要了解游戏规则和步骤，才有机会获胜。这正是我再次亲历的事情——既有痛苦的教训，也有宝贵的经验。这也是我持续关注并经常讨论的话题。

And the key thing for everybody to know is that as new distribution platforms emerge, they follow the same four step cycle, and it's kind of a game that you're playing, that everybody's playing. And so just like any game, you kinda need to know the rules of the game. You need to know the steps of the game in order to have any sort of opportunity to win. And that's kinda like the the the thing that, the that I've lived through once again, both painfully and, also in good ways. And it's something that I'm keeping my eye on and something that I've been talking about.

在深入讨论四步循环之前，我想先暂停一下，看看你们对此是否有后续问题。

So before we go into that, you know, four step cycle, I figured I'll I'll pause there to see if you you have any follow-up questions on that.

明白了。这太精彩了。所以本质上你说的是：我们拥有所有这些增长途径——SEO、付费增长...

Okay. This is amazing. So, essentially, what you're saying is we've all these ways to grow. There's SEO. There's paid growth.

还有销售渠道。这些渠道存在已久，现在极度饱和。总有人在抱怨：SEO已死，

There's sales. All these channels have been around for a long time. They're extremely saturated. Everyone's always complaining. SEO is dead.

靠SEO无法增长了。口碑传播太难了，现在有太多优秀产品，竞争太激烈。

It can't grow with SEO anymore. It can't grow. Word-of-mouth is so hard. There's so many amazing things now. That's hard.

付费推广也困难重重，就像所有钱都被Taxorizing吸走了。

Paid is so hard. It's just it like, all this money Taxorizing.

是的，所有这些事情。

Yeah. All these things.

没错。这些饱和的渠道。而你说的是，现在出现了一个尚未饱和的新渠道，这对企业来说是个巨大的机会。你会谈到时机问题，因为甚至很难准确判断何时该全力投入。是这样吧。

Yeah. So all these saturated channels. And what you're saying is there's an emerging new channel that has not yet been saturated, and this is a huge opportunity for companies to get on it. And you'll talk about timing because it's a little tricky to even know exactly when to go big on this. That's right.

是的。但这可是大事。已经很久没有出现这种真正能用于增长（而非只是碰运气）的新方式了。好的。

Yeah. But that's a huge deal. This has been a long time since there's a new way to grow that you can actually use as a for growth and not just hope for the best. Okay.

对，就是

Yeah. That's

这样。你提到了周期，要不要透露下答案给点提示，还是

right. You get into the cycles, do you want to tease what the answer is just to give people a little hint, or do

想保持神秘？好吧，明确地说，我的预测是——目前还没有明确的赢家。我认为新的分发平台会是ChatGPT，某些方面人们可能已经觉得它正在发生，某些方面则不然。但比起我是否准确预测了赢家，更重要的是理解周期并评估如何决定在哪里押注以及如何押注——这点我知道我们会讨论，因为我的ChatGPT预测可能会出错。我认为会有两部分：他们如何处理ChatGPT搜索体验，但更重要的是他们在ChatGPT上推出的第三方平台。有很多信号表明他们即将推出。我相当确定会是ChatGPT。

you wanna keep it secret? Well, to be clear, right, like, okay. So, my prediction will we don't we don't have a clear winner yet. My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening, in some ways that it won't. But the thing that is less important or like that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly.

我更确定的是，某个新的分发平台将会出现，并遵循同样的四步周期。这才是关键。所以第一部分可能猜错，但对第二部分我非常有信心。

The thing that's more important is to under the stay in the cycle and and evaluate, like, how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know which I know we'll talk about because I I'm I could be wrong about the ChatGPT prediction and what's gonna happen there. There's I think there's gonna be two parts of it. There's going to be what they do with, like, a ChatGPT search experience, but I think the bigger thing will be whatever they do with launching a third party platform on top of chat ChatGPT. There's a bunch of signals that, they're about to, that they're about to launch that. I'm pretty sure it's gonna be ChatGPT.

我更加确信的是，某个新的分发平台将会崛起，并且它将遵循同样的四阶段周期。这才是关键所在。所以第一点可能出错，但对第二点我非常有把握。

The thing I'm way more sure about is that some new distribution platform will emerge, and it will follow the same four step cycle. That that that's kinda that's kind of the key. So could be wrong on the first piece. I am very confident on the second piece.

好的。绝妙的前瞻。我完全同意。如果真有这样的平台，现阶段非ChatGPT莫属。我们开始深入探讨吧。

Okay. Excellent foreshadowing. I completely agree. If it's anything, it would be ChatGPT at this point. Let's get into it.

平台通常遵循哪些发展周期？

What are the what are the cycles that, platforms generally follow?

是的。我会举一些例子来说明，但让我先解释这个循环的前四个步骤，然后我们会逐一讨论这些步骤的多个例子。这四个步骤本质上可以这样划分：第一步我称之为步骤零，即市场条件已经满足。步骤一是关于护城河的建立。

Yeah. And I'll give some examples of this, but let me explain the four, the first four step, the four steps of the cycle first, and then we'll go through a bunch of examples of all those individual steps. So the the four steps are essentially one is like I call a step zero. It's it's the the conditions of the market have been met. Step one is about a moat.

步骤二涉及平台开放，步骤三则是关于平台关闭以实现控制和货币化。让我简要解释每一步。步骤零是指竞争市场的条件已经成熟。这包含几个要素：首先是通常会出现一种共识，认为即将出现一个巨大的新领域。

Step two is about a platform opening, and step three is about, the platform closing for control and monetization. So let me kind of briefly explain each one. Step zero is about the competitive market being, met, the conditions being met. And there's a few part piece of this. One is that typically what happens is that a there is consensus that there is going to be this new huge category.

对吧？想想社交媒体、移动互联网这类事物。在当前情况下，就是像ChatGPT或Claude这样的AI聊天平台。虽然对这个领域有共识，但还没有明确的赢家。通常会有五到七个主要玩家在激烈竞争。

Right? Think social, think mobile, like all those types of things. And in this case, right, these AI, like chat platforms, like a chat GPT or a clock. So there's consensus about that, but there's no clear winner yet. And you typically have somewhere between five to seven, you know, major players really battling it out.

对吧？他们都在寻找那个关键优势——能帮助自己获胜的因素。因为从历史经验看，这种动态最终要么形成垄断，要么形成双头垄断。

Right? So and they're all kind of looking for what is the edge? What is the thing that is gonna that is going to to help me win? Because all of these dynamics, you in in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies. Right?

因此赌注非常大，竞争异常激烈。这就是步骤零。我想我们都同意当前正处于这种状态——OpenAI与Claude竞争，与Gemini竞争，还有谷歌和Meta即将推出的新团队等等。大量资本正在涌入。

And so the the stakes are really large, and so the competition is fierce. So that's kind of step zero. And I I think we could all agree that we are in that mode, you know, right now. We've got we've got OpenAI battling with Claude, battling with Gemini, and Google with whatever Meta comes out with new their new team, you know, so on and so forth. Like and there's huge amounts of capital.

共识已经形成，各方正处于激烈竞争中。这就是步骤零。步骤一则是这些玩家中有人识别出那个能建立防御性、帮助他们达到逃逸速度并成为该领域垄断者或双头垄断的护城河。一旦确定护城河是什么，他们就需要扩大这个优势。

There's consensus, like, all the types. They are in a fierce composition. So that's step zero. Step one is then, these players, somebody essentially identifies whatever the moat is, the thing that is going to help build them defensibility and help them hit escape velocity and become that monopoly or duopoly in that, single category. And once they figure out what that moat is, then they need to press the advantage.

对吧？他们需要尽可能快地积累这个护城河。通常单靠自己是做不到的，需要生态系统帮助——这往往意味着第三方内容创作者、应用开发者和其他企业。于是他们会建立一个内置激励机制的第三方平台。

Right? They need to figure out how to gather that moat as fast as humanly possible. And it tends to be that you can't do that by yourself. And so you kinda need the help of an ecosystem in order to gather more of that moat, and that typically comes down to third party content creators or app developers and other businesses. And so they all establish, like, a third party platform, right, that has some incentives built in.

通常价值交换是这样的：你在我的平台上开发，为平台增加更多用例和用户参与度，作为回报，我会给你相应补偿。

And usually, the value exchange is, hey. You develop on top of my platform. Right? You add more use cases, you know, more engagement, like, all of these things to my platform. And in Exchange, I'm gonna give you something in return.

这种补偿通常是为你的应用和业务提供新的分发渠道。但随着时间推移，我们会进入步骤三——平台关闭期。这时这些公司会开始收紧平台，这往往出于货币化和增长需求：要么是竞争性考虑，不想让他人利用自己的平台颠覆自己。

And usually that thing that's in Exchange is I'm gonna give you some new form of distribution for your application and for your business. But what essentially happens as we go over time is that we go into step three, which is the closing period, which is at some point, all of these companies end up starting to lock down the platform. And this tends to happen for reasons of monetization and growth. Right? They either competitively don't want somebody to use their own you know, platform to disrupt themselves.

就像早期Twitter对Vine和Periscope所做的那样——突然关闭这些服务。要么是需要更深层次的货币化方式，因为这些公司必须持续增长。

Like, we saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope. Right? Like, shutting those things down unceremoniously. Right? Or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, like, they have to grow.

要知道，谷歌就是典型的例子，越来越多的版面要么被广告占据，要么被他们自家的一方应用占用。关键在于，他们通过几种手段来收紧控制：要么彻底关闭某项服务；要么开发自家一方应用来吸收最高频的使用场景；或者第三，人为压制之前阶段给你的自然流量分发，迫使你转向付费机制以实现变现。

And, you know, Google's the classic example here of just more and more real estate has either been taken up by either ads or their own, you know, first party applications. And so that's the key is, like, they close it down by doing one of two by one of a few things. They either shut it down entirely. Two, they develop their own first party applications to absorb the the highest use cases. Or three, they artificially depress the organic distribution that they gave you in the step prior to push you towards paid mechanisms in order to monetize.

所以我觉得我们应该多举几个例子，但这基本上就是四个步骤的核心精髓，我先说到这里。

And so I think we should go through, like, multiple examples here, but that's kind of, like, the core essence of of the four steps, and so I'll I'll pause there.

太棒了。本质上就是要弄清楚什么能构建长期防御性——你的护城河是什么？把所有人都吸引进来。嘿，大家注意。

Awesome. So it's essentially figure out what's gonna make create defensibility long term. What's your moat? Bring everyone in. Hey, everyone.

欢迎来到Facebook。所有人都加入Facebook对吧？然后所有开发者都在Facebook上开发应用，吸引更多人加入Facebook。接着他们就说：好了，现在该付钱了。

Welcome to to Facebook. Everyone joins Facebook and that okay. And all the developers build on Facebook to bring in more people on Facebook. And then they're like, okay. Now you gotta pay.

开始收费了。但你已经深陷其中无法自拔，所有朋友都在这里，你只能继续待着。就是这样。

There's a toll. And but you love this so much and you're so hooked. All your friends are here. You may as well stick around. That's right.

没错。

That's right.

精彩。好吧，那举几个具体例子会很有帮助。

Amazing. Okay. So, yeah, a few examples would be great.

对，你刚才提到的就是第一个例子。这是我最先想到的案例，因为职业生涯早期我就亲历了这个循环——我创办的第一家公司正值Facebook平台爆发期，社交游戏和各种应用兴起，我完整经历了整个周期。

Yeah. So you you just hit on the first one. The fur this is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career. Like, one of my first companies was during the whole, the Facebook platform boom, you know, social gaming, all of those applications. And I lived the full cycle.

在很短时间内，我既经历了黄金时代，也经历了恐怖时期，过程非常痛苦。但这就是真实发生的事。让我们复盘这四个步骤：第零步，当时Facebook正与Myspace、Friendster等平台激烈厮杀。

In a very short period, I lived the the glory days and the just the absolute horror days, and and it was very painful. But this is exactly what happened. So let's go through the four steps. So step zero. Facebook was in a brutal battle with, Myspace, Friendster, and a few others.

人们已经忘了这段历史——当时其实有多家竞争者存在，而且那些竞争者规模都比Facebook大。2007年Facebook开放第三方平台时，竞争对手的用户量更多。但关键点在于，Facebook很早就洞悉了直接网络效应的价值，意识到这将形成真正的用户锁定。

People forget this. People forget that there was actually, like, a bunch of competitors at that time. And in fact, those competitors were bigger than Facebook at the time. They had more users back in 2007 when Facebook launched their third party platform. But one of the key things is that Facebook was very early to the insight about, the direct network effects and that, there's gonna create real lock in that.

朋友越多，全球网络覆盖越广，它就越能自我强化达到逃逸速度。当时他们推出平台时，规模可能只有MySpace或Friendster Orchid的四分之一或五分之一——这些都是当时的知名平台。但他们开放了第三方平台，价值交换条件是什么？

The the more friends, the more of the global network that was on there, the more that it was just gonna feed and and hit this escape velocity. And so at the time they launched their platform, I think they were maybe, like, one fourth, one fifth, the the size of, you know, something like me MySpace or even Friendster Orchid. Like, some of these are some of the names at that time. But they opened up their third party platform. And what was the value exchange?

他们找到第三方开发者说：'我们搭建了这个画布（他们当时称之为canvas），你们可以在上面放置任何应用、游戏等内容，并自由选择盈利方式。

They went to third party developers, they said, okay. We've created this canvas. They used to call it the canvas. And they were like, you could put anything in the canvas that you want, an app, a game, whatever. You can monetize in any way you want.

我们只对广告侧边栏的位置感兴趣。于是Facebook引发了疯狂的淘金热。哦对了，另一部分是：不仅允许你们入驻，我们还会开放所有通知渠道和信息流来推广你们的应用。

We just want this sidebar real estate on the ads. That's that's what we're really interested in. And so there is this mass mad gold rush on that Facebook. Oh, sorry. The other part of that was not only will you put it there, we're gonna give you access to all of these notification channels and feed to get distribution for your application.

这是另一关键点。于是开发者蜂拥而至，社交应用和游戏爆发式增长，病毒传播速度惊人。但最终他们逐步收回这些价值交换——先是声称要对画布内的收入抽成。

That was that was the other piece of it. And so you had this mad rush of developers coming in, and you had this huge, like, social application, social gaming boom. People just grew incredibly virally very fast. But eventually, essentially, what happened over time is they kept peeling back that value exchange. They first were like, ah, actually, you know, that those dollars that you're you're making inside that canvas area, well, we want a percentage of that.

他们调整规则后，又逐步缩减有机渠道的访问权限。最终将高频使用场景（如活动、照片等功能）全部收归第一方平台，实质上扼杀了第三方生态。

Right? And so they changed that. And then they figured out their, like, their ad systems, and then they started peeling back. You know, they started suppressing access to all of the organic channels that they had. Eventually, they went all the way towards absorbing the highest, you know, use case into their own first party platform, things like, first party applications, things like events, photos, all those types of things, and basically shut down the platform, for dead.

那些依托平台发展的公司，等到渠道关闭时，竞争对手早已被远远甩开——因为这些开发者带来的使用场景和用户群已帮他们筑起护城河。这种领先优势让他们可以放心收紧政策，类似案例还有很多。

And these companies that have basically built on top of this platform, you know, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, like all like identifying that moat. They were so far ahead, it didn't matter. It didn't matter what the other what the other folks, did at that point. And and that's what kind of really gives you, confidence to start closing down. But there's so many other examples of this, right, if if we go through it.

对吧？所以

Right? So

在举其他例子前，我想强调两点：一是他们理论上的护城河应该是社交图谱——只要掌握了所有好友关系，用户就不会离开。另外这是否属于自然发展过程？可能连他们自己最初都没预见到这种战略演变？

Before you get other examples, just something I'll highlight here. One is the moat they they identified in theory was the friend graph, I imagine. Just like once we have all your friends, you're not gonna wanna go anywhere. I imagine it's also important to note, you may not this is kind of like a natural thing that would happen if you build the thing and it grows and you're like, maybe we should change strategy. I imagine not everyone even knows this is what will happen and they kind of organically evolve their strategy?

还是说他们从一开始就制定了分步骤执行的计划？

Or do you think everyone's just like, this is our gonna be our plan step one, two, three, four?

这个问题可以换个角度：有人可能认为这些公司本质邪恶，但我的观点并非如此。真的不是这个意思。

I think a different version of that question is I think some people could sit here and interpret this as all these folks are evil. Right? And and that's not what I'm saying. Right? Like, that's actually not what I'm saying.

我想在这点上说得非常非常清楚，因为我认为，你们懂的，很多这种循环之所以发生，是由于竞争性和资本主义的动态与压力。正是同样的环境，使得在美国这里能够创造出惊人的新公司。所以这就像硬币的两面。你经历这种循环是因为这是一个竞争环境。你在想办法击败竞争对手，而这是击败对手的策略之一。

I wanna be very I wanna be very clear on that, because I think, you know, a lot of the a lot this cycle happens because of competitive and capitalistic, like, dynamics and pressures. It's it's the same environment that enables, like, creating amazing new companies, right, here in The US. So and and there's there's, like, two sides of the coin. And so you go through this cycle because it's a competitive environment. You're trying to figure out how to beat competitors, and this is one of the strategies to beat competitors.

但到了某个时候，你就必须持续增长。你仍然必须让那些数字增长。市场不会奖励停滞不前的公司。如果大家有注意到的话，你必须不断增长，所以他们必须不断寻找增长途径，同时防止自己被颠覆。对吧？

But at some point, like, you just have to continue growing. You still have you have to grow those dollars. Like, the the market does not reward flat companies. If anybody's noticed, like, you have to keep growing, and so they have to keep finding ways to grow as well as prevent their own disruption. Right?

他们可以变得如此庞大，可以为新开发者提供如此广泛的发行渠道。他们既不想促成自己的颠覆，也需要保持增长。所以我猜任何处于他们位置、拥有他们平台的人，都会遵循完全相同的策略和逻辑。而且你看，有时候这样做也确实对用户最有利。

They they can get so big, and they can give access so much access just of distribution to new developers. They don't want to enable, their own disruption as well as, like, that they need to keep growing. And so my guess is anybody who is kind of sitting in their shoes, you know, owning their platform is gonna follow the exact same playbook and the in in the exact same reasoning. And, you know, look. Sometimes it happens also because it actually is the best thing for the user.

Facebook的渠道确实变得非常垃圾信息泛滥，类似这些情况，这也是他们采取这种策略的部分原因。但老实说，这不是唯一的原因。对吧？很多情况下主要是出于这些其他考量。

Facebook's channels did get super spammy and, like, all of those things, and that was part of the reason, you know, they they play this. But let's be honest. It wasn't the only reason. Right? Like, a lot of it was a lot of it for was was for these other reasons.

所以我不认为这是邪恶的。你只需要知道如何参与这场游戏——这就是竞争，这就是商业。他们在对你出招，所以你也需要对他们出招。

And so I don't think it's evil. It's just you need to know how to play the you just need to know how to play the game. That that's competition. That's business. They're playing you, so you need to play them.

这听起来可能有点施虐倾向什么的，但这就是商业的本质。你正处于一场竞争游戏中。

Like, that felt like that that might be a little little sadistic or something, but but that is that is business. That's you're you're in a game of competition.

是的。本质上，激励机制将你引向这个方向。资本主义。资本主义就是这样运作的。没错。

Yeah. Essentially, the incentives are pointing you in this direction. Capitalism. This is how capitalism works. Yeah.

所以即使人们想避免，它也会把所有人都拉向这个方向。我们再举几个例子吧。

And so it'll pull everyone in this direction even if they they don't they wanna avoid it. Let's do a couple more examples.

好的。我们快速过一下。谷歌是个有趣的案例，因为它的过程持续了更长时间。懂我意思吗？

Yeah. We'll go through them quick. You know? I I think everybody's probably Google's an interesting one because it played out, over a much longer period of time. You know?

Facebook大约用了五年左右时间完成这个过程。谷歌则是非常缓慢地用了多年时间，但本质相同。对吧？早期与雅虎的激烈竞争。我不确定...

Facebook happened over the course of about in five ish years, something like that. Google kind of did it, like, very slowly over years, but, same thing. Right? Massive early massive competition against Yahoo. I don't know.

Altavista。我喜欢，你能说出所有这些名字。对吧？那甚至是在我那个时代之前。对吧？

Altavista. I like, of you name them all. Right? That was even before my that that was even before my time. Right?

他们是第一个真正识别这些数据护城河并激励网页开发者和内容创作者优化内容以适应其搜索算法的公司。这创造了一个极好的分发机制。大家都在某种程度上为他们构建内容和一切。但随着时间的推移，他们做了两件事：一是越来越多的版面变成了他们用来变现的广告位。

They were first to really identify these data moats and incentivizing essentially web developers content folks to optimize, you know, for their search algorithms. It create this great, great distribution mechanism. Everybody's kind of building content and everything, you know, for them. But over time, slowly but surely, right, they did two things. One is more and more of that real estate became ads that they were monetizing.

于是他们压制自然分发以推动人们点击广告，同时吸收了一批高价值的第一方用例，比如旅游，或者餐厅搜索这类服务。Yelp的前CEO和创始人就曾多次公开批评这些做法。同样的循环在移动领域也完全重现。iOS创造了一个新的分发机制。

So they're suppressing organic distribution in order to push people towards the ads, as well as absorbing a bunch of the highest value first party use cases, things like travel, you know, as an example, or even like, you know, like restaurant search and like all those types of things, you know, the Yelp, former Yelp CEO and founder has has been, you know, been out there saying a lot a lot of things about about these practices. So same same exact cycle. Mobile went through the exact same cycle. Right? IOS created a new distribution mechanism.

初期他们面临手机厂商间的激烈竞争，后来发现防御性在于应用生态。他们吸引了所有开发者，创建应用商店这类平台。但逐渐地，我们看到这方面的限制越来越多。最近在小规模场景也出现了同样情况。

They were in massive they they had a ton of competition among different phones when they first started on. They found the defensibility was more about the apps. They got in all the developers, created the the App Store, like, all of these types of things. But over time, we've seen more and more restrictions there on that front. And then most recently, right, like we've seen this happen in smaller places too.

以LinkedIn为例，先是经历了企业主页的浪潮。他们鼓励企业宣传主页吸引用户，积累粉丝。但现在企业主页几乎没有任何自然流量，因为他们都在推广告。

LinkedIn, as an example, first went through this wave with company pages. Right? They were like, ah, companies, you know, come on, promote your company page, bring in more users, like all that type of stuff. And then get get all these followers. And then, of course, they you get almost no distribution now through your company page, because they're pushing you towards ads.

最近他们对个人资料也这么做了——先是大力推动个人内容创作，推出思想领袖广告形式来变现这些帖子，现在又大幅缩减自然分发。这种现象既出现在大平台，也存在于小场景。但关键趋势是：这种循环周期正变得越来越短。

And then they recently just did this with personal profiles too, which is they really boosted distribution for individuals to create content for that platform. They then introduced the thought leader ad format, a way to monetize those those individual posts, and now you've seen them really pull back on that organic distribution. So this happens in big forms, and it happens, even in in smaller use cases as well. But once again, the steps of the cycle are exactly the same. And the key part about this too is it the broad trend is that the cycles seem to be getting shorter and shorter and shorter and shorter.

所以实际上你能参与游戏的时间窗口更小了。

So you actually have a smaller amount of time to play the game.

好的。关键在于，虽然结局可能对你不太妙，但在平台开放吸引用户的神奇阶段，你可以疯狂增长。你的意思是ChatGPT或其他平台即将进入这个阶段。

Okay. And the big here is, yes, this will end maybe not great for you, but there's this magical period when they're open to Yes. Customers and users where you can grow like crazy because they want everyone to come and they give you a distribution. And what you're saying essentially is ChatGPT potentially some other platform maybe, is about to enter this mode.

是的。不过在讨论ChatGPT前，人们意识到这点时的本能反应通常是：去他的，我不玩这个游戏。对吧？大多数人都是这种反应。

Yeah. Well, let me first before we get to ChatGPT, I think the natural reaction when when you first realize this, is screw them. I'm not playing that game. Right? Like, that that that's what I feel like most people, like, how how they react.

因为残酷的现实是，很多公司没能预见最后阶段，结果陷入困境。Facebook社交平台崩溃时无数公司被摧毁，苹果30%的抽成直接消灭了一批应用和商业模式，因为利润空间根本不够。

Right? Because, because the unfortunate truth is is that a lot of companies don't predict that last stage and end up in a really hard, hard position. Right? So many companies got completely killed during the crash of the Facebook social platform. Apple's 30% tax basically destroyed a bunch of types of applications and business models because it just you couldn't you feel like it was just wasn't like margin effective.

有那么多公司建立在SEO循环上，对吧？如果这是他们唯一的渠道，现在他们真的陷入大麻烦了。所有这些事情，对吧？所以我认为自然的反应是，作为一家初创公司或企业，我为什么要参与这个游戏呢？

All so many companies built on, you know, SEO loops, right? That are in serious, serious trouble right now if that's their only channel. So so all of these things. Right? And so I think the natural reaction is, yeah, like, like, why would I play this game if I'm a startup or or a company?

就像

Like

你甚至可以用ChatGPT作为例子看到这一点。对吧？他们刚刚推出了这些深度研究连接器，其中一个就是我的前公司HubSpot。如果你坐在HubSpot内部孤立地思考，你会想，为什么我要让所有数据通过ChatGPT可访问，并积累所有使用量呢？

and you can even see this with, like, ChatGPT as an example. Right? They just launched these, like, deep research connectors. One of them was my former company HubSpot. And, you know, if you sat inside HubSpot and you were just thinking in isolation, you would be like, well, why would I want to make all of my data accessible through chat GPT and have like all of the usage you start to accrue there.

对吧？孤立来看这并不合理，但我们不是在孤立的环境中运作。我们再次处于竞争环境中。如果你不这样做，你的竞争对手肯定会转向新平台，客户的期望也会改变，你必须满足这些期望。他们会开始期待你出现在这些新体验中。

Right? It doesn't really make sense in isolation, but we don't operate in isolation. Once again, we operate in a competitive environment. And what's going to happen is that if you don't do it, your competitors are going to certainly go to the new platform, and your customer expectations change, and you have to rise to those customers' expectations. They're going to start expecting you to be in these new experiences and all these things.

所以这最终变成了囚徒困境，对吧？就像你无法退出游戏，你必须参与。而且，早参与比晚参与要好，尤其是对初创公司来说。对吧？

And so it ends up being a prisoner's dilemma, Right? Which is like, you there is no opting out of the game. You have to play the game. And and so it's better to be early than than to be super late, to this game, especially if you are a start up. Right?

这有点像关键机会。我们会多谈一点如何更好地参与游戏，但早参与比晚参与要好。更难的部分是预见到周期的最后阶段，并在那个阶段到来之前找到如何退出。我认为这是关键部分。但让我先停在这里，然后我会谈谈ChatGPT和我的一些想法。

That that that's kind of like the the the key, that that's kind of like the key opportunity. And so we'll talk a little bit more about how to play the game more, but it's it's it's better to be early as well as than than the key the harder part about it is is anticipating that last stage of the cycle and figuring out how to sequence away from something before that last cycle comes. So I think that's the key part. But let me pause there, and then I'll talk a little bit about chat GPT and and some of my reasoning behind that.

酷。所以你的意思是，不仅有一个巨大的增长机会，如果你不利用它，你所在领域的其他人会。所以这不仅是一个机会，而且是你必须做的事情，因为你可能会错过机会。我想到了像Zynga这样的公司，它们在Facebook上成长并成为大公司。

Cool. So what you're saying is not only is there going to be this big opportunity to grow. If you don't take advantage of it, somebody in your space will. So it's not only there's an opportunity, but this is something you need to do because you might miss the boat. And I think about companies like Zynga that grew on Facebook and then became massive companies.

你知道，如果它们没有那样做，它们就会错过机会。其他人会抢走它们的午餐。我不知道。我现在在想Twitter上的Technology Bros播客TPPN，他们基本上在Twitter上发现可以创建这种直播，你整天都能在Twitter feed中看到，就像他们在广播一样，这是一个很酷的分发渠道。所以我认为这里有一个很大的号召，关于大多数正在出现的机会，你基本上需要关注。

And, you know, if they didn't do that, they would have missed the boat. Someone else would have eaten at lunch. I don't know. I'm thinking about the technology bros podcast on Twitter right now, TPPN, where they basically figured out on Twitter, you can create this, like, live stream and you see it all day in your Twitter feed just like, hey, they're broadcasting, and it's a really cool distribution channel. So so I think there's, a big call to arms here on most of just the opportunities emerging, and you basically need to pay attention.

你不能退出。没错。没错。好的。完全正确。

You can't opt out. That's right. That's right. Okay. Exactly.

Chat。是的。我们来谈谈ChatGPT。

Chat. Yeah. So let's talk ChatGPT.

你看，让我们梳理一下这个周期。我们现在正处于竞争激烈的环境中。就像我们提到的，ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini这些玩家都在激烈角逐。

So look. Like like, let's go through this cycle. We are right now. We're in that competitive environment. Like we said, like, all those players we talked about, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, all these folks, they're they are battling it out.

对吧？特别是过去一个月左右，我们从人才争夺战中就能看出来。目前还没有明确的赢家，但整个行业已形成共识。第二点是：护城河是什么？

Right? And and we've seen this with, you know, the talent awards, especially over the past, you know, month month or so. And and so there's no clear winner yet, but there's consensus around, the category. The second thing is then, okay. What's the moat?

护城河是否已被识别？谁最先识别或进展最快？我的假设是——现在这个观点比三个月前获得更多认同——真正的护城河在于上下文和记忆。这些模型本身若并列比较，产生的输出大同小异。真正的差异在于谁能掌握更多用户上下文，因为最佳输出=上下文+模型，这逐渐形成记忆的良性循环。

Has the moat been identified and who seems to have identified it the first or is furthest along? I think there's, you know, my hypothesis, and I think there's a lot more consensus around this now than there might have even been three months ago is that the moat is really about is about context and memory. You know, these models, you know, by themselves, if you compare them side by side, you know, they they kind of generate the same results. And so that the actual difference maker is which one has more of your context and and and because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output. And then and then that kind of starts to accrue to this loop around memory.

使用越频繁，系统存储的个性化记忆越多，进而产生更精准的上下文，输出质量更高。最终形成类似飞轮的增强回路。目前在这方面走得最远的无疑是ChatGPT。

The more you use it, the more it's able to store memory around you, which kind of feeds more personalized context, which produces better outputs. Right? And it ends up being an you know, another one of those flywheels, another one of those another one of those loops. And so if you look at who's farthest on this, it definitely is ChatGPT. Right?

他们最早布局记忆功能，大量投资各类数据连接器（本质是上下文连接器）来收集语境。用户行为数据已印证这点。不过有人反驳我的预测：谷歌和Gemini呢？他们通过Chrome等渠道拥有巨大分发优势。

Like, were kind of the first ones to memory. They've been investing a lot in these different types of data connectors, essentially context connectors, you know, gathering all of this context. And and so you can really start to see it in the usage. But the second thing is is in one of the pushbacks I've gotten on my prediction has been, well, what about, like, Google and Gemini? Like, they have so much distribution through Chrome and, like, all of this other stuff.

但Menlo Ventures的Didi Doss发布的留存数据显示——这也是我预测ChatGPT会胜出的第二个原因——历史经验表明，决胜关键从来不是短期分发量，而是留存率和参与度。谷歌当年胜在留存参与，Facebook早期规模虽小但留存碾压对手。

Right? But, it was, Didi Doss, who's a VC at Menlo Ventures, actually published some good data on retention of all of these different ones. And, I think the second reason I predict ChatGPT is, like, if you look at history once again, it was never the person who had the biggest distribution at the moment of time. It was the one that had the best retention and engagement. Google had the best retention and engagement over the others.

Didi的数据清晰显示：ChatGPT的留存曲线（你我都在 exhaustion 分析过）不仅显著高于其他平台，而且随时间推移持续上扬。记忆功能的效果开始显现，他们已形成罕见的微笑曲线。

Facebook had was smaller but had way better retention and engagement over the others. Right? So on and so forth. And so, the the data that Didi published, clearly showed that both the retention curves, which I know you and I have both written about at, you know, at exhaustion, level off at significant portions higher than all the other platforms as well as those retention curves have been shifting up dramatically over time. You can start to see the effects of of memory, and and they have the very elusive smile curve.

这种动态在我职业生涯中只见过几次，比如Slack等大赢家。这种曲线实在太难得了。

Right? The ones that you just like and the only other times I've seen, you know, all of those dynamics very few times in my career, and they tend to be the folks like Slack and and, like, all of the big winners. It's there it's just, like, so elusive.

补充说明微笑曲线：本质上指留存率随时间先升后降，但用户会回流并提高使用频次。

And the smile curve just to just to have people haven't done with that is essentially retention goes up over time. It goes down a little bit, and then you come back to it and you use it more.

没错。这通常是网络效应或其他机制的结果，是平台达到逃逸速度的早期信号。第三点虽然他们没明说，但各种迹象表明第三方平台即将推出。

Yeah. That's right. And it's usually the result of, some type of network effect or or something else. And and it and it's it's a early indicator that these folk that that that platform is on a trajectory to to hit escape velocity. The third piece is that and they haven't really hidden these, but there's all sorts of signals that they're about to launch a third party platform.

他们一直在招聘多个职位。我看到很多产品经理、工程师等岗位的招聘信息，都是围绕所谓的‘智能体平台’及相关组件。感觉这些厂商中迟早会有一家推出第三方平台，以满足各种使用场景的需求。这里会有价值交换——比如要让你的智能体高效运作，可能需要接入上下文、记忆和分发功能。

They've they've been hiring for a bunch of roles. I've seen multiple postings on, like, product manager, engineering roles, all that kind of stuff for, you know, quote, unquote, agent platform and all those pieces. And so it feels pretty inevitable that they will one of these players will need to launch a third party platform in order to, you know, serve all the possible use cases, you know, on these tools. There's gonna be some value exchange, which is like, hey. For your agent to be effective, you probably need access to the context and memory and distribution.

对吧？所以会有‘接入我们平台，我们提供这三项功能’的价值主张。这自然会吸引更多用户和使用量。我们将逐步经历这个发展周期的各个阶段。

Right? So there'll be some value issues of integrate to us, and we'll give you those three things. Right? Is Which gonna drive more users and more usage. And and we're gonna go through the steps of we're gonna go through the steps of the cycle.

其实现在就能看到苗头。他们开始与一些大厂商建立优先合作伙伴关系，这为小型第三方厂商铺平了道路。某种程度上给平台赋予了公信力——如果HubSpot和XYZ都在用，那我也该试试。

And you can already see this. Right? Like, you know, they're starting to form preferred partnerships, right, with some of the bigger players, which paves the way for smaller third party players. It kinda gives Lens credibility to the platform. It's like, well, if HubSpot and x y z are doing it, then I should probably do it too.

就是这种从众心理。但正因如此，我认为在所有这些平台中，ChatGPT目前最具优势。虽然总有人问‘那Claude呢？我很喜欢Claude，我就在用’。

It's it's like that type of that type of mentality. But that's why I think out of all of these platforms, ChatGPT has, the the best shot right now. And then and then a bunch of folks are always like, well, what about Claude? I really like Claude. I use Claude.

问题在于，ChatGPT目前的月活用户至少是Claude的10倍。作为开发者，当你比较这两个平台时，看到ChatGPT用户量多10倍且留存互动更好，在资源有限的情况下，优先开发哪个平台才是合理选择？这些就是我预测ChatGPT会胜出的部分原因。

Well, the problem with that is, like, I think ChatGPT at this point has, like, at least a 10x difference on MAUs. So if you're a developer, right, and you're comparing those two platforms and you're saying and you're looking at it you're like, well, ChatGPT has 10x the number of users and better retention engagement. It's like, what's the logical choice of which one you're going to prioritize your scarce resources on? Right? And so so those are just some of the reasons that my prediction is on ChatGPT.

在我写的相关博客文章中，我也自我反驳道：好吧，这里有几个ChatGPT可能不会胜出的理由。但我认为我们正处于这个发展周期阶段。虽然我的ChatGPT预测可能出错，但我非常确信我们将再次见证这个周期重演。

And, in in the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, okay. Here are some reasons why it might not be a ChatGPT. But but I think we're in that part of the cycle. That's my prediction. I might be wrong in the prediction of ChatPT ChatPT, but I really think I feel very confident we're gonna see this cycle play out again.

我有两个追问。第一，如果不是ChatGPT，备选会是谁？听起来可能是Gemini（谷歌）？

Two follow-up questions here. One is what's your what would be the backup if it's not ChatPT? It sounds like it might be Gemini, Google.

我认为最具潜力但尚未发力的其实是苹果。通过设备，他们基本上能洞察一切，拥有终极的上下文视角。他们占据着这个战略位置。

My hypothesis of who's best positioned but is not executing on it right now would actually be Apple. Through the the devices, they basically can see everything. So they have the ultimate view into your context. Right? They're they're they're sitting at that they're sitting at that level.

但我不清楚他们的具体计划。从执行层面看，或许他们会突然发布革命性产品。但目前没有任何外部信号显示这点，所以这个判断更多是基于用户生态位。其次我可能会选谷歌，因为他们掌握着邮件、搜索、Chrome和Android等关键场景的上下文与分发渠道。

But I don't know what they're doing. It's like from an execution standpoint, maybe they're gonna surprise us with something crazy magical. But I haven't we haven't seen any external signals around this. So so that's probably just based on on what real estate and where people live in the stock would own. And then I think right behind that, I would probably put I would probably put Google, because of owning the context of things like email and the the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and and those types of pieces.

很多人看好谷歌，但根据我使用他们所有产品的体验——回到留存率问题——如果查看内部数据，我猜会发现大量昙花一现的用户。他们把Gemini入口到处放置，我自己就误点过好几次。所以我推测他们大部分月活数据正是来自这种偶然点击。

But, and a lot of people point to them. But my experience with all of their products is, like, going back to the retention engagement thing is is that if we could take a look inside their metrics, I think what we would see is a bunch of flyby users in their mouths. Like, they're kind of sprinkling the Gemini bucket everywhere. And I'm I've I've, like, literally clicked on it accidentally multiple times. And so my guess is a huge portion of their mouths is is exactly that, of, like, what what's happening right now.

所以，你看，他们刚刚从温莎挖来了一个非常有才华的团队。

And so, you know, look. They just they they just acquired a very talented team from from Windsor.

只是团队。只是团队。

Just the team. Just the team.

部分团队。是的。我们拭目以待。事情正在以每周为单位发生剧变。看看他们是否能清晰把握这些优势，但如果ChatGPT策略得当，我认为他们的窗口期非常短暂——毕竟他们现在明显拥有突破性优势。

Part of the team. Yeah. We'll see. And and things are things are changing dramatically, you know, on a on a week to week basis. So we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way, but I think the window is very small for them if if if ChatGPT plays their cards right because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.

如果他们持续以正确方式施压，谷歌要在剩余时间内反击将会非常困难。

And, if they just keep pressing that advantage in in the right way, I think it's going to be very hard for Google to, counter in in the amount of time that's left.

关于Claude，我分享个内幕：我采访过Anthropic的产品总监Mike Krieger，直接问他'你们输给JET GPT后如何规划Claude的未来'。他明确承认对方确实抓住了风口机遇。

On the Claude piece, I'll just throw this nugget out. I had, Mike Krieger on the podcast, head of product CPO at Anthropic, and asked him just, you're you're losing to JET GPT. What do you how do you approach the future of of Claude? And he very specifically said, yes. They've caught lightning in a bottle.

根据我在Instagram的经验，胜败已定。所以我们专注Anthropic最擅长的领域——开发者工具、编程和后端系统。最近财报显示他们年收入接近百亿，在细分市场表现惊人。

This is just going to win based on what I've seen at Instagram. And so we are specifically focusing on what is Anthropic and collab incredibly good at, which is developer tools, coding back end stuff. So they're actually leaning more and more into that. And if you've seen the revenue recently, they're making, I don't know, like approaching 10,000,000,000 a year or some crazy amount of money. So they're actually doing super well just in a different use case.

这提醒了我们忽略的一点：在这个生态中始终存在并会涌现小型平台。就像社交领域LinkedIn的崛起，最终都会分化出细分市场。

Yeah. I'm glad you mentioned this because this brings up something that we skipped, which is there are smaller platforms that have existed and will also emerge in this environment as well. And and that's kind of like what you're alluding to is that this tends to happen is like things end up, you know, you know, growing into to more niches. Like, even if you look at social, right? Like LinkedIn emerged as a subset of of the social world.

但即使是这些新分销渠道的小平台，也会经历相同周期。举个极端例子：在线课程平台Udemy最初给创作者80%分成，吸引大量课程作者后，去年已将分成压缩至15-20%。

But I'll I'll but even on these smaller platforms, these new distribution channels, they they go through the same cycle. I'll I'll give something, you know, really, a a very opposite example of the ones that I gave. Like, look at the platform Udemy. Right? They they are a platform for course creators.

现在实际在25-30%左右。这是通过关闭自然流量来实现变现的典型案例。AI领域同样会上演——比如Cursor显然正在打造开发者代理平台，这将形成另一个小型产品生态。

Right? I don't know if most people know this, but when they started, their rev share to creators was something like 80% to creators. They started very high. And that brought on all the course creators, got their whole marketplace going, like so on and so forth. I believe it was about a year ago they announced that they're essentially pushing that rev share down to something like somewhere between 1520%.

最终会形成某些产品的专属竞技场。

They're somewhere at 2530%. So another example of they closed down organic distribution in order to monetize all that kind of stuff. And the same thing will happen in this AI world. I believe you know, cursor it's very clear, like, cursor is on a path to also probably create some type of agent platform, right, for developers. So that'll be like a smaller ecosystem to play in for, some some products.

感觉现在大家的策略都差不多，似乎每个人都想推出一个智能体平台。我猜其他一些横向生产力工具也会这么做，比如Notion、Airtable或monday.com之类的。所以未来会出现一些小平台，它们将重演我正在讨论的相同发展周期。不过说到最大的消费级平台，我认为ChatGPT目前最具突破性优势。其他平台则会专注于不同领域。

There's all sorts of it feels like everybody has the same strategy at this point as everybody wants to launch an agent platform. I imagine some of these other horizontal productivity tools will do the same thing, maybe like a Notion or an Airtable or like a monday.com or or something like that. So there there are there will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I am that I'm also discussing. But, yeah, in terms of, like, the biggest kind of consumer one that that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the the most escape velocity. And, and, yeah, others will focus on different areas.

需要说明的是，我很喜欢Claude。实际上我同时使用Claude和ChatGPT处理不同事务。我对这些工具都充满好感，目前的预测与我个人偏好无关。

And and just to be clear, I love Claude. I actually use both Claude and inject ChatGPT all for for different things. I I have lots of love to go around for all these tools. I'm not my prediction has no no bearing on which which product I I like the most right now.

我也喜欢Claude。你提出的关键点是正在形成多种分销渠道，其中很多会是垂直领域的。比如LinkedIn对这个播客的听众来说就是精准渠道，虽然它不像谷歌或Facebook那么庞大，但对我的特定需求极具价值。

I also love Claude. So I think with so the key point here you're making is that there's almost a a number of distribution channels emerging. Many of them will be niche. So I think of LinkedIn if I wanna like, LinkedIn for me is a very targeted audience for folks that listen to this podcast. So even though it's not, I don't know, Google or Facebook or whatever, it's still incredibly valuable for this specific thing that I do.

确实如此。更令人兴奋的是，这波AI浪潮将催生更多分销渠道。另外你提到大家都在开发智能体，最近播客嘉宾Brett Taylor正在开发Sierra，他让我明白了部分原因。

For sure. So I think this is even more interesting that there's gonna be a number of distribution channels that emerge out of this whole AI wave. The other thing I'll note real quick, you mentioned this idea of everyone's building agents. I just had Brett Taylor on the podcast who's building Sierra. And we actually he made me realize why everyone's building agents partly.

首先是基于结果的定价模式极具吸引力，因为可以明确量化智能体对业务投资回报率的影响。比如能清楚看到某个案例通过智能体节省了15美元，这种可归因的自动化服务允许按效果收费。

One is because the outcome based pricing that you can charge with agents is incredible because one, you can actually attribute their impact on your business' ROI. You can actually see this is saving an agent $15 because it solved the case. And it's attributable and it's autonomous. It's just doing it on its own. So with that, you can charge per outcome.

可以说'每次解决问题收费1美元'，这种盈利空间巨大，利润率会疯狂增长。

You can say, We'll charge you a dollar every time it solves an issue. So the monetization opportunity is huge and the margins go up like crazy.

我能就此提个问题吗？你认为这种模式在当前环境下能持续多久？毕竟现在人们是相对于纯人力成本来衡量这些结果。但随着竞争加剧，很可能会出现压价入局者，就像颠覆理论描述的那样。当然这也取决于基础设施和算力成本。

Do you can I just ask a question about that? Do you think that has longevity, in the sense that, that makes sense in the current environment that we're sitting in right now because people are kind of comparing these outcomes relative to what it costs them today with pure humans. But once again, competition comes in at some point. And so that feels like that creates a pretty ripe opportunity to, you know, undercut and come into and then then you have, like, whole all, like, the disruption theory kind of playing out as well. And so, it obviously depends on, like, the infrastructure costs and compute costs to to to run these things.

我只是好奇这究竟是短期现象还是长期趋势。

But I just wonder how much of that is, temporary versus versus something that'll be long term.

你是说单价会从1美元逐渐降到50美分、25美分，还是指会出现全新商业模式彻底颠覆现有方式？

So you're saying that dollar will come down to, like, 50¢, 25¢, or are you saying someone's gonna come with a whole new business model and disrupt that whole approach?

更倾向于前者。本质上就是竞争会逐渐侵蚀这个溢价空间。没错。

More the first. Yeah. Like, it's just competition erodes that away, essentially. Right? Yeah.

确实，这个观点很好。所以利润率会在一段时间内保持较高水平，然后才会下降。

Yeah. That's a good point. So margins will be higher for a while, and then they'll come down.

对。而且还有另一个因素，能创造持久的定价权。

Yeah. In there's, something else that, creates, like, durable pricing power.

对吧？我在想是不是...嗯...所以我在想那是什么

Right? I wonder if that yeah. So I wonder if what

就是这个。这是第二个部分。对，对。这大概就是那个假设的第二个组成部分，我感觉。

that is. The second piece of this. Yeah. Yeah. That's probably the second piece of that hypothesis, I I feel like.

嗯。

Yeah.

是的。我想那里的机会，护城河应该是数据，就像Cursor通过收集更多关于人们想要什么样的代码建议的反馈一样。理论上，CRFN随着时间的推移会积累越来越多的数据，形成某种网络效应。对，就是这样。

Yeah. I think I guess the opportunity there, the moat would be the data, like, similar to how Cursor is collecting more feedback on what is people want in their code suggestions. Maybe in theory, CRFN has more and more data over time, and there's kind of this network effect. Yeah. That's right.

没错。让我重新表述一下。我相信只要...

Yeah. So so let me revise that. Yeah. It's like, I believe in that as long

与Samote结合使用。

as it's paired with Samote.

这第二个部分。否则就会被竞争消磨掉。

This this second piece. Otherwise, it gets competed away.

嗯。好的，不错的题外话。好了，最后一个问题。

Yeah. Mhmm. Good tangent. Okay. One more question.

你预测机会出现的时间线是怎样的？就我们录制当天而言，你认为接下来会有什么进展？特别是ChatGPT应该开放哪些功能来启动这个平台，让所有人都能参与进来？

What's the what is your prediction on timeline for when things when the opportunity appears? And what do you predict as of the day we're recording? What do you predict will be the next couple things that open that Chat should be t, and let's just focus on that releases to start to open up this platform to get everyone in there?

好的。首先我要声明，在AI市场里任何关于时间节点的预测都极其困难——实际情况往往比预期来得更快。这就是我们应有的认知偏差：事情总是比你想象的更早发生。

Yeah. Well, look. I'll I'll first, give the disclaimer that I feel like any thoughts on timing in the AI market are very have been very hard to it there it's always shorter. That's where we should bias. It's always shorter than you think, of, like, when something's gonna happen.

至少从我目前的观察来看是这样。我的推测是：未来六个月我们将见证这个进程的下一个重大阶段。比如我们刚看到ChatGPT最新推出的智能体模式，这是个通用型智能体，它正在引导用户适应智能体概念，同时平台也在探索业务分层和商业模式。

Like, that's what it's felt like from the seat that I've been sitting in. And, but my guess is this, we're going to see the the next major steps of this play out over the next six months. And so I think we just saw one of the pieces drop around this, which was, their re which was Cheet Chat GPT's recently launched agent mode. And so it's kind of a general purpose agent. And I think that starts to introduce all of the users to using agents, and they're kind of figuring out and placing it in the different tiers and business models, all of those pieces.

但通用智能体不可能完美满足所有场景。原因有二：用户面对全能型工具反而无所适从——正因它们什么都能做，用户反而难以真正采纳。

But it's likely that no general purpose agent is going to fulfill all of the infinite use cases, successfully. And there's two reasons for this. Right? Users struggle with horizontal tools. They can do everything, and that's exactly why they struggle to adopt.

用户通常需要更具体的切入点。而且特定场景往往需要定制化界面、专属数据等要素才能完美服务目标群体。我认为他们的智能体模式是个开端，下一步可能会宣布平台计划——要么直接推出平台，要么先与优选合作伙伴（比如10-20家先行者）共同试水智能体接入。

And so they typically need more specific entry points. But also, the more specific use case you get, sometimes you need specific UI, specific data, like other specific ingredients, you know, to properly fulfill, that use case for, you know, for a given audience. And so I think their agent mode was a step in this direction. What I would expect to see play out next is that they will they will either launch they will announce the platform or what they're gonna now with preferred partners or what they're gonna announce versus is basically a set of preferred partners, the the guinea pigs. You know, an initial 10 to 20 folks that are, like, bringing agents, to their platform.

这种做法本质上是建立信用背书：通过与知名品牌的特约合作赋予平台公信力，从而吸引其他参与者加入。之后才是逐步开放平台——届时我们才能真正看清游戏规则，因为他们必须明确价值交换机制。

And, and what that does is it essentially once again, it's a credibility card. Right? You you do special deals with, some, like, right brand names to give, the platform credibility, and it kind of creates this desire from everybody else to come on, you know, to the to the platform. And then the step after that is starting to open up the platform. And this is where the real, you know, where we'll really start to figure out what this game is gonna look like because they basically have to define what the value exchange is.

他们究竟开放什么资源？提供哪些激励措施来吸引入驻？这是一条路径。另一条路径则是打造搜索的替代方案——比如在结果中深化溯源功能，或是像最近宣布的那样将购物功能原生集成到界面中。

What are they giving you access to? Right? And, like, what are what are they incentivizing you with to to come on to the platform? So that's one version of it. The other version of it is just like the replacement to search.

围绕这些功能他们会建立新的变现机制。这其实非常关键——回到关于记忆与语境的护城河理论：他们需要尽可能吸引用户使用免费服务，但鉴于AI的高成本，必须通过其他方式平衡。非订阅制的变现手段越多，就越能支撑免费服务。

There will probably be, you can also see them starting to make more moves here, which is, like, deeper attribution in some of the results, like, those types of pieces they're bringing in shopping. Right? Like, that's one of their recent announcements as well, kind of native into the UI. Essentially, they will form new monetization mechanisms around that stuff as well. And that's actually gonna be very important because, for them to going back to the moat around memory and context is that, you know, they they will want to incentivize as many people to their free tier as possible.

我认为接下来会沿两个方向推进：第三方开发者平台建设，以及内容生态（不管叫AEO还是GEO，反正行业还没统一术语）。要是已经定了术语记得告诉我。

But given the cost of AI, they have to cover it somehow, so they're gonna need some monetization mechanism. So the more that they can cover that free usage with things that aren't subscriptions, I think that probably also kind of feeds them out. So I think it those are some of the next steps on two different vectors, more of a, like, a third party developer platform and more of the, you know, kind of content, whatever you wanna call it, AEO, GEO. I don't know what acronym is. Every we've all decided on yet.

这些就是我对ChatGPT发展节点的预测。现在我想强调的是：当前阶段对创业者而言本质上是在下注——你们正在做战略押注。

Let me know if we have. And, and and I think those will be I think those will be the next the the next steps that we'll see. Now that's what I think for Jet GPT. I think the thing that we should talk about is, like, essentially, what I would advise folks, especially startups, is you're placing bets. At this part of the cycle, you're placing bets.

正如我所说，我们无法百分百确定谁是赢家。因此，在某个时间点，你终究需要做出决策，决定在哪里押注。在Facebook时代，所有那些其他社交网络也都推出了自己的平台。对吧？比如iOS有Android，还有Windows的一些失败尝试。

We don't the winner is a 100% guaranteed, as I mentioned. And so you essentially, at some point, will need to make some decisions about, you know, where to where to place your bets. In the Facebook days, all those all those other social networks, they also came out, you know, with their own platforms. Right? And, iOS had Android and some failed initiatives from Windows.

我甚至不记得那个平台叫什么了。但回顾过去，选择iPhone——实际上iOS是个明智之选。如果你只押注Android，可能会输；如果能同时在两个生态系统中布局，就可能成为赢家。但若仅押注iOS，同样可能获胜。

I don't even remember what that platform was called. Right? Like and you can look back and whoever placed their you know, the iPhone was actually a very and iOS is a good one, which is if you had only aligned your bets to Android, you probably lost. If you somehow find found a way to play on both ecosystems, you could be a winner. But if you only aligned to iOS, you could also be a winner.

对吧？所以iOS必须成为你押注策略的一部分才能赢。现在大家正处于这个周期，需要想清楚该把筹码放在哪里，如何进行押注。

Right? So, like, that's just right. Like, you you had to have iOS as part of your betting strategy in order to win. So everybody right now, like, you're probably at the cycle in in trying to figure out well, y'all need to everybody will need to figure out where are they gonna place their chips. How how are they gonna bet?

如何押注取决于你当前的市场地位。如果你是后期初创公司或成熟企业，就有余力分散押注，观望谁会成为赢家再全力支持——这是你们的奢侈。但风险在于，现有企业有时会犹豫太久才做决定，这是他们需要回答的关键问题。而初创公司面临的问题则完全不同。

And depending on how you bet really depends on, what your current position is in the marketplace. You know, if you're a late stage startup, let's start with that, or like a late stage company, you can afford the luxury to place multiple bets and spread your chips and wait it out a little bit to see who the winner is and then really throw your muscle behind that winner. You have that luxury a little bit. And of course but the risk of that is that sometimes the incumbents wait too long to to make that decision, and and that's, like, kind of the key key question they will need to answer. The key question for startups is totally different.

你们没有分散筹码的奢侈，必须孤注一掷。资源有限，市场关注度稀缺，这完全是另一种游戏规则。

You don't have the luxury to spread your chips. Like, you have to go all in. You have to choose one and go all in. You you have scarce resources, scarce attention from the market. And so it's a totally different ballgame.

当然，高风险高回报。这就是初创公司的押注策略。你需要制定自己的策略，然后我们会讨论如何评估选择正确路径——但现阶段我们都像是刚进赌场。

Higher risk, higher reward for sure. And that's part of the betting strategy for startups. And so that's kind of what you have to do is you kind of have to figure out your betting strategy. And then we talk a little bit about how you might evaluate and pick the right course for you. But, but that's where we're all at right now is we're we're kind of we're we just entered the casino.

刚兑换了筹码，现在需要决定在哪些赌桌下注。

We just cashed put some cash in for some chips, and now we've now we've gotta figure out, you know, what tables and and where to to place those chips.

这个比喻太棒了。为了让听众、创始人和产品团队明确该做什么，核心建议就是：整合ChatGPT，或许还有Gemini，如果苹果推出产品也要跟进。实际整合他们发布的任何功能——可能是登录系统

I love this analogy. Okay. So just to be crystal clear about what listeners should do, what founders should do, product teams should do, the advice here essentially is, integrate with and ChatGPT, maybe Gemini, maybe if Apple has something. It's like, actually integrate with with what they launch. So it could be a a login thing.

可能是搜索功能，可能

It could be a search thing. It could

是

be a

连接并吸收你的上下文记忆。这里的建议是，你需要这样做，因为这很可能是大多数公司开始发展的方式，而你的竞争对手可能会超越你。

connect and suck up your memory in context. The advice here is is you need to do this because this is potentially the way that most companies will start to grow, and your competitors may overtake you.

对，对。如果我们要简化它，本质上就是参与游戏。不要退出游戏。不要欺骗自己认为你无法参与游戏。

Yeah. Yeah. If we had to, like, really simplify it, it's essentially play the game. Don't opt out of the game. Don't don't trick yourself into thinking that you can't play the game.

这是第一点。第二点，无论你押注于谁，都要集中下注。因为回顾过去，所有的失败者都是那些试图用稀缺资源同时玩多个游戏的人，这对早期初创企业来说往往行不通。所以这两点：参与游戏。

That's number one. And then number two, no matter who you bet on, just make it a focused bet. Because the the all like, if you look back, all the failures are the ones that tried to, you know, play multiple games at at once with scarce resources, and that just tends to never work if you're you're an early stage startup. So those two things. Play the game.

集中下注。

Put a focused bet.

本集节目由Miro赞助播出。每天，新的头条新闻都在吓唬我们，说AI将以各种方式取代我们的工作，引发了许多焦虑和恐惧。但Miro最近的一项调查讲述了一个不同的故事。76%的人认为AI可以有益于他们的工作，但超过50%的人不知道何时使用它。Miro的创新工作空间是一个智能平台，将人与AI聚集在一个共享空间中，共同完成出色的工作。

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你在HubSpot长期担任增长负责人。你以HubSpot为例，他们为什么要集成？为什么要放弃所有数据让JGB吸收，以至于你永远不需要去HubSpot？你只是通过他们的代理工作。

So you were head of growth at at HubSpot for a long time. So and you gave that as an example, HubSpot. Why would they integrate? Why would they give away all their data so that JGB can suck it up and you never have to go to HubSpot? You're just working through their agent.

你在HubSpot会同意吗？我们必须这样做。这是我们必须要参与的游戏。

You're would you at HubSpot be like, yes. We gotta do this. This is the game we gotta play.

是的，百分之百同意。这正是我认为他们在做的事情。而且，明确地说，我并没有与HubSpot的任何人讨论过这个问题，也没有与Darmesh谈过。

Yeah. A 100%. And that's exactly what I think you see them doing. And, look, to be very clear, I have not talked to anybody at HubSpot about this. I have not talked to Darmesh about this.

但达梅什也公开谈论过这一点。正确的做法是，即便你不完全理解周期如何演变，也不清楚退出策略具体是什么，一旦决定退出，最好是尽早行动。明确自己需要制定退出策略，并在过程中逐步完善，而非拖延至最后一刻才仓促应对。我认为这正是他们所采取的策略——尽可能早地布局，虽然我们可能暂时看不清他们在这个周期中的具体退出路径，但这确实是个相当精明的做法。

But, Darmesh, I think, has also, like, published publicly published about this. But that the right thing to do is essentially even though you don't you you understand how the cycle plays out and you don't necessarily under what understand what your exit strategy is, once you get out. It's better to be early, know that you need to figure out an exit strategy and figure out that exit strategy along the way versus waiting and then being super late and and then and then know what the exit strategy is. And and I think that's essentially what that's exact that's exactly what you see them see them doing. They're trying to be as early to this stuff as as possible, and I think it's a I think it's a pretty smart play even though we might not necessarily see, like, what what the exit strategy is out of this cycle for them.

回到对话开始时你引用的那句精彩语录——应该是亚历克斯·兰帕尔说的——初创公司要赢，就得在现有巨头复制它们之前找到分销渠道。你这里说的正是初创企业颠覆老牌公司的机会，比如有人可能借此颠覆Salesforce、ServiceNow这些老牌企业。

So going back to that amazing quote that you shared at the beginning of the conversation by, I think it was Alex Rampaul Yep. Of that startups win by finding a distribution channel before the incumbent copies of them. And what you're saying here is this is the opportunity for startups to disrupt an incumbent. This is the opportunity for someone to disrupt Salesforce, I don't know, ServiceNow, all these guys that have been around for a long time. Yeah.

这将成为

It's gonna be one of

主要途径之一。你看，已经有些玩家达到了逃逸速度，比如Cursor这类公司。实现逃逸速度有多种方式，但主要方法之一就是将自己绑定到新平台上。

the major ones. Now look. You've already seen players that are have been able to hit this escape velocity, you know, the the cursors and stuff of the world. And and so there once again, there's multiple ways to hit that escape velocity, but this is gonna be one of this is one of the major ways to do it is to basically hit yourself to a new platform. Look.

其实你自己就这么做过——早早押注Substack，做了专注的选择。

You did it yourself, actually. You hitched yourself to sub stack super early. You took a focus bet. Yeah. Yeah.

刚突然想到这个例子——你的专注押注让你获得了远超后来者的回报。现在细想，这其实是个绝佳的元案例。对，这就是...

I was like, I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focus bet, and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that kinda came later. And I think that's actually a great meta example here as as I sit here and think about this. Yeah. That's actually the way

我当初转投Substack时就是这么想的。感觉浪潮正在兴起，就算平台抽成或存在不足，我也要乘上这波浪潮。结果确实很成功。

I thought about when I was moving to substack. Just like, I feel like there's this wave rising, and I wanna ride this wave even if it maybe it's not the best place or may you know, they take a cut, all that stuff. Yeah. But it worked out really well. That's right.

效果远超预期。说实话，刚开始时我甚至觉得自己入场太晚了。

And I think it worked out very well. It worked out really well. And to be honest, it it felt like it was too late the when I started When

你入场时觉得

you when you entered? It felt

太晚了吗？

too late?

是的。哦，同样的工作。

Yes. Oh, same work.

那是什么？对于后来加入的人来说，总觉得为时已晚。比如硅谷——抱歉，马克·安德森有句名言，他说，我八十年代来到硅谷时，

What's that? It always feels too late, I think, to people that join. Like, Silicon Valley or sorry. Marc Andreessen has this famous quote. He's like, I came to Silicon Valley in the eighties.

以为一切都结束了。太迟了。我错过了所有机会。这很公平。是的。

I thought it was over. It was too late. I missed all the opportunities. That's fair. Yeah.

所以没错。当时有很多做得非常好的时事通讯，订阅量达百万。

So yeah. There were just a lot of newsletters that were doing really well. Million subscribers.

我就想，哇。那你现在会对想加入Substack的人说什么？

I'm like, wow. And what do you say to people now who wanna join Substack?

让我们从这个例子中学习。很多时候当人们觉得为时已晚时，其实绝对不晚，一切才刚开始——尤其是如果你整天泡在推特上听这类播客，被这个所有人都在讨论某事的泡沫包围时。实际上，每天你听到的东西可能只有1%的人真正了解。

Let's learn from this example. A lot of times when people think that it's too late, it's it's definitely not too late, it's always only just getting started, especially if you're, like, on Twitter all day listening to podcasts like this where we're surrounded with this bubble of everyone talking about something when in reality, like, 1% of people know anything about what you're hearing about every day.

是啊。这太有意思了。

Yeah. Yeah. That's so interesting.

好的。回到建议上来，假设有人正坐在那里和经理谈话，布莱恩刚刚分享了所有这些令人震撼的建议。我们必须选择战场，选择平台。你会建议他们如何决定把赌注押在哪里？

Okay. So coming back to the advice, say someone is sitting there and talking to their manager, Brian just shared all this mind blowing advice. We gotta pick our battles. We gotta pick our platform. What would your advice be for them to decide where to where to place their bets?

对。我认为这是个很好的问题，因为再次强调——先抛开我的个人预测不谈——我会鼓励每个人都从第一性原理出发思考：他们的受众是谁、产品是什么、公司处于什么阶段，所有这些现有的优劣势。但如果要归结为几个标准，我主要会考虑：选择新分销渠道和新平台时，第一点（回到之前说的）用户留存率和平台参与深度是比单纯用户数量或注册量这类虚荣指标更好的信号。

Yeah. So I think this is a great question because once again, you know, put my personal prediction aside for a second, and and I would encourage everybody to think about it from first principles from their like, who their audience is, what their product is, what stage of company they're at, like, all the all those there's current strengths and weaknesses. You gotta take all this into account. But if I had to boil it down to a few criteria, the main things I would think about is when you're looking at new distribution channels and new platforms to choose on, one, kind of going back to what we said before, is the better signal is retention and depth of engagement of the users on this platform than it is like pure kind of user level, like, some some other, like, number of sign ups, know, one one of those vanity metrics. So look at that number one.

第二点是用户质量和平台变现能力。最鲜明的例子就是iOS和Android——尽管如今Android设备占比约70%，但市场份额按美元计算只有30%，iOS则完全相反。这又回到我们早先说的：如果只押注Android可能就输了，但即便iOS用户基数较小，只押注iOS仍能最终获胜。

Number two is there's some element of user quality and ability to monetize the users on this platform. I think the starkest example here would be iOS and Android. It's like even though even today, it's something like Android has seventy seventy some percent of devices, but only 30% of the market share by dollars, and it's the exact flip, for iOS. So it kinda goes back to what we were talking about earlier, which was if you bet on Android only, you probably lost. But if you bet on iOS only, even though smaller user base, you could you you were still able to parlay that into a win, later.

第三点需要关注的是，随着这些平台的出现，只需分析其价值交换机制。明白吗？即他们提供什么激励让你在其平台上开发？所有这些平台都像一场游戏，谁能最好地理解规则并利用规则套利，谁就能占据优势。最后，我的第四条标准纯粹是规模因素。

The third thing to look at is as these platforms emerge, just analyze what the value exchange is. Right? So what are they giving you to incentivize you to develop on their platform? And, and, like, all these platforms are a bit of a it's a bit of a game of whoever understands the rules and how to arbitrage the rules the best, right, tend to be the ones with the with the edge, and figure that out. And then and then finally, fourth on my criteria would be pure scale.

对吧？显然，即使具备前三个条件，但如果存在200倍的规模和势头差距，那你大概率会选择更大的平台。但最重要的是，当你运用这些标准时，这实际上是你思考如何入局的逻辑。而一旦入局，就必须立即开始考虑如何退场。

Right? Obviously, even if you have those other three, but there's, you know, 200 x difference in in scale and and momentum, then, like, obviously, you probably opt to choose, the the bigger platform. But last but not least is as you go through these criteria, this is this these are how you think through entering the game. You know? And once you enter the game, then you immediately need to move to starting to think about how do you exit the game.

要清楚最后一步终将到来——未来某个时刻会出现变现闭环，那时你就需要制定退出策略。这包括：如何掌控用户体验或工作流的关键环节？如何积累主流平台缺乏的特定场景数据？或是如何创建不同类型的微网络效应？诸如此类。

Knowing once again that that that last step is going to come at some point in the future that there's gonna be some closure for monetization, then that's where you have to start thinking through your strategy to exit. And that comes down to things like, okay, well, how are you going to own a important part of the user experience or workflow? Or how are you going to accumulate specialized data in context that the major platforms don't have? Or how do you create different types of micro network effects? Like, all of these types of things.

所以再次强调，虽然存在入场标准，但当你确定自己已入局后，就必须立即转向思考：既然这一切终将发生，我的退出计划是什么？

So just once again, though there is the entrance criteria, but once you figure that out and you feel like you're in the game, you immediate immediately need to move towards, okay. You know, what what what's my exit plan here knowing this is all coming?

有趣的是，你描述的模型也可以理解为在LLM之上构建战略，成为GPT封装者。因为本质上，这项技术能让你创造出惊人的产品（比如Cursor）。但有人会质疑：你只是个封装者，利润都被上游赚走，任何人都能复制你——长期来看你的护城河在哪里？

It's interesting that another way to think about this model you've described is building the strategy of building on top of LLMs and becoming a GPT rapper. Because essentially, this tech allows you to, say, create a cursor that is incredible. And then you could argue, oh, you're just going to be this rapper and why wouldn't anyone like they're getting all the money here. Everyone can copy you. Like, what's your defensibility long term?

答案在于：你能否在这个基础上逐步构建护城河，使自己长期增值而不依赖底层技术？所以同样的框架完全可以应用于GPT封装业务——就用这个委婉说法吧。

And the answer is what is the moat you will build over time sitting on top of this thing that will make you more and more valuable long term and not have to rely on this thing. So it feels like you could use the same framework for building a GPT wrapper business. Yep. To use that euphemism. Yep.

假设有人现在就想下注，他们能做什么？是开发一个让大语言模型吸收数据的MCP（最小可行产品）吗？这是当前唯一能做的事吗？还是说现在平台尚未释放真正有价值的功能，为时尚早？

Say someone is sitting there today, is there anything they can do to start making a bet? Is it simply creating an MCP that allows LMs to suck in your data? Is that the one thing you could do today? Is there anything else that's available today to start using these platforms, or is it just a little too early and they haven't released the good stuff yet?

可能确实有点为时过早。我们正处在临界点，但我正在思考：如果某个平台推出新功能，我们该如何评估？诸如此类的问题。当然也可以尝试与这些公司建立亲密关系——

It might be just, like, a tad too early. Like, we're, like, right on that edge, but, you know, some of the questions I'm asking myself is I I like, I'm kind of going through all of these these players and where our customers and target audience live, and I'm asking myself, you know, the question, okay. If this player launched, you know, some type of platform, like, how would we evaluate it? You know, so on and so forth. It's hard to you can also try to cozy up, to these folks.

我敢押上大部分身家打赌：如果我们能坐在OpenAI前台，肯定会发现他们正在与潜在优先开发者密谈。有些人确实有机会建立特权关系，如果你处于这个位置，务必打好这张牌。多数早期图表业务都依赖于此。除此之外，在平台正式开放前，我们能做的确实有限——必须等他们明确价值交换机制和开放权限。

I would place a large portion of my net worth right now that if we could sit in the open AI offices, like, at that front desk, that they are having, you know, meetings with potential preferred developers, like, talking about that we could probably sit there and and and log it. So I I do think some people are going to be in a place to develop, preferred relationships and and make a note. And if you're you're in that spot, then you you should definitely play that card. A lot of early stage charts will be in that card place. Other than that, I would say, we we still need like, once they launch these platforms, it's like, we you can't do much else until you really kind of know what the the value exchange is and what they're gonna expose, for you.

但同时要做好随时战略转向、全力投入的准备。这可能是最困难的部分——当机会出现时必须极速抓住。而领导者往往难以下决心，因为不愿让团队在未知中感到剧烈动荡，毕竟现有项目都已铺开...

But also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in. I think that's probably one of the hardest parts of this is that, these things emerge, you have to capitalize extremely quickly. And a lot of times, it's just it's hard for leaders to do that because they don't want to create a feeling of whiplash into the unknown. We've got all these projects in play. They all you you know all the things.

所以我认为这大概是我们目前能做的最后一部分了，相对于只是，你知道的，在一切新情况出现时保持跟进。

So I think that's, I think that's probably the the the last part of what what we can be doing right now versus just, you know, kinda staying on top of everything as as it emerges.

你刚才说的让我想起，我最近注意到ChatGPT给我的通讯稿带来的流量比Twitter还多，感觉这种变化是最近才发生的。我之前完全没意识到，直到查看推荐来源才发现——ChatGPT？这到底是怎么回事？虽然和你讨论的版本不同，但本质上类似，理论上我本可以阻止ChatGPT访问...虽然我也不知道具体怎么操作。

As you were talking, this reminded me, I recently noticed that ChatGPT is driving me to my newsletter more traffic than Twitter, and I feel like that recently shifted. I didn't even know this was a thing until I just started looking through my referrals. I'm like, ChatGPT. What the hell is going on there? And I think it's like a different version of what you're talking about, but essentially, it's like, in theory, I could block chat GPT from I don't know.

我甚至不确定在Substack上能否实现

I don't even know if I can from the You

可以的，现在Substack确实有这个设置选项。对，我刚看到那个功能。

can in you can in Substack now. Yeah. I just saw that setting in there. Yeah.

明白了，有意思。这面临类似的抉择：是让它推荐我的内容告诉人们'去看看这个'更好，还是直接屏蔽？按照你的观点，也是我的感受...

Okay. Oh, interesting. But that's the a similar kind of decision is, like, is it better for me for it to be recommending my stuff and telling people, hey. Go check this thing out, or is it better to block it off? And I think per your point, and then this is how the way I felt.

干脆全盘接受。就像，这挺好的。与其让别人抢占市场份额，不如让流量来自Lenny的通讯稿。

Like, take it all. Just, like, it's good. It'll it's it that, it's better that it's, like, from Lenny's newsletter than something else. So someone else will come in and eat that market share.

没错。如果你不行动，别人就会占据这个空间。

Yeah. That's right. Yeah. Like, if if you if you don't do it, you know, somebody else's. Yeah.

我认为这也是所有主流媒体出版商当前真正面临的困境。

And I think and and I think that's also kinda what all the major media publishers are really contending with right now.

看来我需要和你签个授权协议了...好吧，我想完全跑个题，我们原本没计划讨论这个。

I guess I need a licensing deal in your check, so anyway. Okay. I I wanna go on a totally different tangent. We weren't planning to talk about this. I know that, I said this.

虽然说过要专注这个话题，但开始录音前你提到的事我觉得听众会非常感兴趣——你们Reforger现在真正开发可购买的SaaS产品了？不只是课程。不知道大家是否了解，我们必须说清楚：现在有针对产品团队的实际产品了。

We're gonna be fully focused on this one topic, but there's something you mentioned to me before we start recording that I think will be really interesting to a lot of people. So you guys at Reforger now building actual SaaS products that people can buy. It's not just courses. I don't know if people know that, but let's make sure people understand this. There's actually products for product teams.

或许可以简单解释一下。但我觉得最有趣的是，你现在与许多公司合作销售AI工具。你注意到那些真正擅长采用AI工具并从中获益的公司与那些做不到的公司之间存在巨大差异。请谈谈你观察到的现象，因为这理论上会对那些在采用AI工具和实现收益方面遇到困难的公司非常有帮助。

So maybe just explain that briefly. But the thing that I think is really interesting here is you work with a lot of companies now selling them AI tools. And you have noticed a very big difference between the companies that are really good at adopting AI tools and seeing gains from them from those that don't. Talk about just what you see there and because this is, in theory, gonna be really helpful to companies that are struggling with adopting AI tools and seeing gains.

好的。我先快速解释一下这个转型过程，让大家更容易理解。你知道，我最初创立Reforged是出于一个兴趣——那些在高速成长公司前线奋斗的优秀领导者们拥有大量宝贵知识，我希望以实用方式将这些知识编码传递给他人。最初我们通过课程、内容和产品等形式来实现这一点。

Yeah. Just to quickly explain that tran transition so it it makes sense for people, which is, you know, I started reforged just with, the interest that there was all these incredible leaders out there growing, you know, on the front lines of some of the fastest growing companies. And they have all this amazing knowledge, and I wanted to encode it in useful and practical practical ways for others. Right? And that took the form of courses and content and product and all that kind of stuff at the beginning.

在这个过程中，大家不断要求我们开发工具来实践所教授的内容。因为就像任何事情一样，你可以无限学习——听我的播客、Lenny的播客等等，但如果不付诸行动，就无法创造真正价值。长期以来人们一直要求我们填补这个缺口，但我们始终拒绝。

And along the way, everybody kept asking us to essentially build the tools to implement what we taught. Because with anything, it's like you can learn as much as you want. You can listen to my podcast, your podcast, Lenny, like whatever as much as you want, but if you don't actually put it into action and implement it, then it's not really going to create value. Right? And so people kept asking us to to really close that gap, and we said no for the longest time.

直到约两年前AI技术出现拐点时，我们突然意识到：现在不仅可以将知识编码成内容，还能融入我们自用的软件工具中。于是我们开始大力投入，为AI原生产品团队开发新平台。首个产品Reforged Insights就像AI产品研究员，聚合所有渠道的反馈并用AI分析，帮你探索数据，还能识别现有反馈中的空白，自动生成研究方案来获取全新洞察，形成完整闭环。

Then about a couple years ago, when AI really started to inflect, it really created this moment that, oh, wow. Now we there's this opportunity not just to encode this knowledge into content, but also into the products, the software, the tools that we use ourselves. And so we started to take a really big bet on that and and started to develop this this new platform for AI native product teams. The first product we launched is called is called, Reforged Insights, which acts like your AI product researcher, kind of aggregates all the feedback from all the sources, uses AI to analyze it, helps you explore it, but also, will start to identify, like, what are the gaps, the things that you don't have in your feedback today and auto generate the research to go gather all those net new insights. So complete the full cycle.

年底前我们还将推出该平台的另外两个主要产品，这个留待以后讨论。这就是我们的历程。我们通过两个视角观察企业转型：一是作为工具供应商，二是十年来企业一直通过我们的学习产品寻求转型。大多数公司不是来买课程的，而是为了解决重大商业问题或转型需求。

We're gonna watch two other major products as part of this platform before the end of the year, but, we'll we'll save that for some some future episode. So that's kind of been our our journey. And so we've seen inside companies that are going through this transformation from two perspectives. One is obviously selling in that tools, but the other perspective is for ten years, companies have been coming, to us to help them drive some sort of transformation with our learning product. You know, most people most companies are not coming to us to, just like throw a bunch of courses in front of they're they're trying to solve some big business problem, some transformation.

过去这些需求可能是：'我们需要解决增长问题'，或是'要从销售驱动转向产品驱动'，或是'需要将项目经理转型为产品经理'这类具体挑战。

Now that used to be things like, we've gotta figure out this growth thing. Right? Or I'm going from sales led to product led or, you know, I'm turning I have more project managers, and I need to transition to product managers. Right? Like, something like that.

他们正经历某种商业转型，将我们视为转型伙伴。我们参与过许多这类转型。而现在所有人面临的转型是：如何变得更AI原生？如何有效采用这些技术？

Like or there's some business problem. They're going through some transformation, and they they saw us as part of that transformation, and we got to partake in quite a few of those types of transformation. Now, of course, the transformation that everybody's going through is, okay. How do I become more AI native? How how do I adopt this stuff?

我们从两个视角都观察到企业应对方式的巨大差异。想必大家都见过那些CEO发布的所谓'AI宣言备忘录'，用夸张方式宣称'我们现在是AI原生公司了'。

And and so we've seen a pretty wide spectrum in from both perspectives of how companies are approaching this. And I'm sure everybody's seen the, like, AI I call we've been calling them, like, the AI manifesto memos from CEOs out there that proclaim we are now AI native. You know? It's some grandiose way. Right?

但幕后支撑这些宣言和行政命令的实际措施存在惊人差异。我想指出几个关键点：最有效的是建立严格约束条件。虽然沟通、指定负责人、设置激励措施（比如纳入职级体系或绩效考核）都很重要，但真正产生效果的是那些设定硬性约束的公司。

There's behind the scenes, there's actually some incredibly stark differences in the actual teeth of what backs up those memos and backs up those executive decrees that, you know, we should all be, you know, AI. And and so just to kind of point out, a few of them, which is, one is that, there I think the most impactful thing, that you can do is form really hard constraints. So a lot what what you there's there's other parts that's like, okay. Wanna communicate this. You wanna establish an owner of who's going to drive this.

比如我们合作过的一家公司，他们根据同规模收入、团队阶段设定了一个基准约束：'我们要做到其他公司五分之一的人力效率'。

You want to build in incentives and rewards. And you see this all playing out in things like building it into your career ladders. Or some people are starting to introduce this as questions into their performance reviews, all those types of pieces. But the thing that is actually moving the needle are the companies that are defining incredibly hard constraints. So one company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes, for their stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one fifth.

我们每个职能部门的规模将缩减至五分之一。这一举措实际上设置了人员编制上限，迫使人们必须寻找采用人工智能的方法来替代原有工作。这是其一。你可能还见过其他公司的类似做法，我记不清具体是哪家了。

Each of our functions will be one fifth the size. And and what that did is it created a constraint that you couldn't hire above that level, and it forced people to essentially find ways to adopt AI and and and do things to to to replace that. So that was one. You've seen these other ones. I can't remember from what company.

可能是Shopify或其他公司规定：在证明无法通过AI达成目标前，禁止新增编制。这是另一种硬性约束。但微观层面也存在约束，比如高管们会要求'没有三个原型就不进行产品评审'这类规定。这才是最棘手的部分。

This might have been Shopify or another who was like, you are not allowed new headcount until you prove to us that you are not able to accomplish this, with AI. That's like another hard constraint. But you also see these other constraints on the smaller level, which is, you know, executives saying, I will not do a product review, or review a PRD unless it comes with three prototypes. You know, some some something like that. And so that's that's the hardest one.

这些都是重大约束。但我观察到最根本的变化——也是区分顶尖转型者与普通企业的关键——在于能否做出最艰难的决定。这个决定往往涉及人员裁撤。每次转型中，我们都会看到三类人：引领变革的'催化剂'群体，他们自主进行各种实验尝试。

But those are the biggest constraints. But I think the biggest change that I'm seeing is and and the things that separates out the the top few percent making this change and and everybody else is, is essentially making the hardest decisions. And that hardest decision is going to come down to exiting people. So in every transformation, what we see is essentially three groups of folks. You see your, we call them the catalysts, the people kind of leading the charge, the people who are experimenting, you know, doing this on their own, time, like all that kind of stuff.

其次是'转变者'群体。这些人能够完成转型适应，但需要明确的架构指引和授权许可。

You then have, your, what we call your converts. These are folks that will make the transformation. They will adapt. But they need structure. They need permission.

他们需要清晰的路线图和计划。这并非负面评价，只是不同人的工作方式差异。

They need a clear outline. They need a clear plan. Right? And I don't say this in a negative way. It's just that that's how some people operate.

因此我们之前讨论的政令授权、明确预算、奖励机制等就派上用场。但总会有一定比例的'锚定者'存在，他们消极怠工，

Right? And so that's where things like, all the things that we were talking about before, which was the decree, the permission, the clear budgets, the rewards, all of those types of things. But then inevitably, have a certain percentage that are anchors. Right? And they're dragging their feet.

在暗中制造阻力。各公司对待这类人员的策略差异显著：有的选择被动磨合，有的则设定硬性截止日——要么在X日前完成转型，要么离开。

They're kind of, you know, silently creating friction in the background, and like all those pieces. And there's a big difference in how I think companies are treating and thinking about their strategy for those folks. One group is kind of like, ah, we're going to work with them very passively. Others have set a hard deadline. They're like, either make the they're going to either make the transformation by x date, or we're gonna exit folks.

许多人认为这种做法过于严苛，尤其从员工视角。但让我以CEO角度解释：重视AI转型的企业视此为根本性文化变革，而非简单工具升级。

And a lot of people look at this as being really harsh. I think a lot of people would think that, especially individuals. But let me kind of explain it from a as more of like a CEO perspective. A lot of these companies are seeing this AI transformation, the the ones that are taking it more seriously as this isn't adopting new tools. This isn't a light change.

这彻底改变了企业运作方式。当30%或更多员工以不同文化模式运作时，组织就会失衡。文化凝聚力需要高度一致性，

This is a fundamental culture change of how we operate as a company. Right? And you can't have 30%, whatever meaningful number of it is of your company trying to operate in a completely different way, in a in a completely different culture. Cultures thrive on density. Right?

这也是为什么优秀企业文化常带有' cult '特质。从这角度看，为确保成功与员工整体利益，我们必须遵循相同文化原则。若有人不再契合，就需要制定退出方案。

And that's why they're sometimes the best ones feel like cults. You know? And and so as a result, from that perspective, it's like, hey. Like, we for us to be successful, for this to be the best thing for all employees, we all need to be operating around the same culture of principles and stuff. And if that's not you anymore, then we're defining a plan to exit it.

但我要说，在我们观察的公司中，采取这种强硬立场的不足10%。不过这些公司往往是进展最快、采用率最高且成效最显著的。虽然还有很多其他方面可以探讨，但这大致是我们从众多不同公司中观察到的高层概况。

But I would say that less than 10% of companies we see are taking this hard stance. But I would say they are probably the ones that are farthest along, getting the most adoption, and are seeing the most results, of the ones that are taking those hard stances. So there's a bunch of other stuff I could talk about, but that's kind of the high level of kind of what we've what we've seen across a bunch of different companies.

这实在太有趣了。很高兴我们谈到这个话题。我即将发布一篇通讯文章——可能在本期节目之前——其中涉及许多这方面的建议。我期待你们能持续分享这些企业洞察。

That is incredibly interesting. I'm glad we went there. There's a I have a newsletter post coming out soon, probably before this episode that touches on some a lot of advice along these lines. I I'm excited for you guys to keep seeing these insights into companies and sharing more

因为这是，

of those because this is,

我认为许多人正在寻求的答案。就像'我们公司运转不太顺畅，总听说别人效率突飞猛进，这些企业运作得更高效，但对我们却无效'这类困惑。所以这类建议正是大众所需要的。

I think, what a lot of people are looking for. Just like things aren't quite clicking at our company. We keep hearing everyone getting so much more productive. All these companies are running more efficiently and it's not working here. So I think this is the kind of advice a lot of people are looking for.

感谢分享这些见解。Brian，在进入激动人心的快问快答环节前，你还有其他想补充的内容吗？还有什么想留给听众的？

So thank you for sharing all that. Brian, is there anything else that you wanted to touch on? Anything else you wanted to leave listeners with before we get to our very exciting lightning round?

其实关于这个话题还有两点。哦，我们该...应该说的是，大概还有两个要点：第一，作为正在收听的CEO，大多数高管其实根本不清楚公司内部AI应用的真实情况。许多发布过相关指令的高管以为转型在自然发生。

Well, actually, just a couple more points on this topic. Oh, We should we should go. Is like, is there's probably two more things I would say about this. One is that, so if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place in in in inside their companies. I think a lot a lot of executives who have done these decrees and all that kind of stuff think it's kind of happening naturally.

但我们同时接触两类群体：大量终端用户和众多高管。从产品经理、工程师等实际使用者那里，我们最常听到的问题是——比如当某人使用原型工具时，我们会问'团队里还有多少人在用这个？'，90%的回答都是'大概就我和另外一个人，其他人都没开始用'。

But we talk to both groups. We talk to tons of end users, and we talk to tons of executives. The story we hear from the end users, the PMs, the hinge, all that kind of stuff that we talk to kind of using all this stuff, one of the main questions we ask them is, you know, if somebody if we're talking to somebody who's picked up a prototyping tool, say, well, how many other people on the product and design team are using this? Almost 90% of the time, it's like, ah, it's like me and this one other person, and everybody else hasn't, like, taken it up. Right?

这种认知断层非常严重。有个典型案例（不便透露名称），这家众所周知的科技先锋公司，其CEO公开宣称要实现AI原生。但我们采访他们的一位首席产品经理时发现——

And so there's a huge disconnect. And we heard one story, and I won't I can't say the name, but the it's a company we all know. It's a major tech company, tech forward company. CEO's been out there talking about being AI native. We talked to one of their, like, print you know, principal PMs.

这位早期采用原型工具的PM将作品分享给设计师和工程经理后，事情被层层上报至副总裁，引发大量讨论。但一个月后，项目依然停滞不前。

Person was early to the prototyping tools. This person shared a prototype with the designer, the Inge Manager. The designer and Inge Manager escalated it to the VPs. It caused this whole conversation. Month later, kind of the it was, kind of still stalling out.

后来这位PM在某次CEO参加的聚会上，向CEO汇报了这个原型实验。CEO反应热烈：'太棒了！现在进展到哪步了？'当得知具体情况时，这位CEO完全不知情。

This PM happened to then, you know, attend a happy hour where the the CEO was at and, approached the CEO and told the the CEO about the experiment that, they were running with prototyping and stuff. And the CEO was like, this is fantastic. Like, why you know, like like, where is it at right now? I was like, oh, well, x you know, x y z happened. And the CEO had no idea.

然后CEO就说，好吧，让我来处理。结果第二天事情就发生了。所以第一点是，你必须深入基层了解这些情况。像Shopify这样的优秀企业正在实际测量采用率和使用情况。

And then and then the CEO was like, okay. Let me take care of it. And then the next day, it it happened. So there one is that there you have to go to the Ground Floor on this stuff. Some of the best companies like Shopify and others are measuring actual adoption and usage.

他们甚至采取了极端措施，从最基础的层面收集大量信号。但这恰恰说明——虽然我不想用所谓的'创始人模式'来形容——面对如此大规模的转型，你不仅要深挖产品细节，更要深入理解转型本质才能真正推动落地。这是第一点。第二点来自我们播客《不请自来的反馈》中Farid Masovat的金句。

They've gone to the extreme, like, kind of on that on that front to to get a bunch of signals in close to the ground. But it's just that it just goes to show that, this is you know, I don't think we wanna talk about quote unquote founder mode, but, the reality is is it's not just about getting into the weeds of your product, but with something this sizable, you gotta get into the weeds of the transformation to, like, really understand what's going on and adopt it. So that that's point number one. The second point I would say is, Farid, on, we do this podcast, called unsolicited feedback. Know, Farid Masovat had this great quote on it.

他说：听着，系统最慢的环节决定了整体输出速度。这句话让我印象深刻，因为它千真万确。如果把AI应用看作系统，每个环节都可能拖慢进程——可能是缺乏权限、预算不足、认知欠缺等各种因素。

He was like, look. The slowest your output is, constrained by the slowest part of your system. And, and I thought that was that stuck in my head because it's absolutely true. And so if you think about AI adoption as a system, there's all parts of the system that could be slowing adoption. It might be that people don't feel permission, or they don't have the budget, or they don't have the knowledge, or destruct all these types of things.

对吧？但多数情况下，IT、法务、采购这些部门往往成为摩擦最严重的瓶颈，决定着整体节奏。在产品团队里也能看到这种现象——随着工程师效率提升，产品经理反而成了新瓶颈，这正是系统局部加速的必然结果。

Right? But in a lot of these cases, it's things like IT, legal, procurement, are the slowest part of the the friction and are kind of setting the pace of all of this output. And you can also see this in, in just product teams, which is, you know, a lot of there's been all this talk about, you know, product managers are becoming the new bottleneck because engineers are speeding up. Well, that's because people are speeding up one part of the product system and not the other parts. Which makes sense.

毕竟企业优先给工程师配置工具，因为他们人数最多成本最高。但产品是设计、产品管理和工程共同输出的结果。这个系统存在的意义不是生产代码，而是交付产品，对吧？

Like, they adopted all of this tooling for engineers because they're the biggest headcount and the most expensive and, like, all that type of stuff. But product is an output of design PMs and engineering. The system is there not to produce code. It's to ship product. Right?

产品交付取决于这三个要素的协同。如果只加速其中一环，瓶颈就会转移到其他环节，整个系统的产出效率其实并未提升。所以必须认清两点：基层实际发生着什么？以及系统中最慢的环节在哪里？

And and shipping product is the function of those three things. So if you just accelerate one part of the system, you're just going to move to the bottleneck to another part. And your actual product output, the output of the system doesn't accelerate either. So I think you really got to un people have to really understand those two things. It's like, what is actually happening on the ground floor and what what is the slowest part?

到底是什么在阻碍采用速度？如果你真心想要推动转型，就必须毫不留情地攻克这些瓶颈。

What is the thing that is causing, you know, the slowest part of the adoption? Just, like, attack attack them ruthlessly if if you're really serious about making this transition.

我们正经历着多么疯狂的时代啊。

What a wild time we're living through.

确实是个疯狂的时代。

It is a wild time.

这就像...我们明明有那么多方法...

It's just like what? We had all these ways that we all

说习惯用。好吧。

say used to. Okay.

我们就是这么做的。

This is how we do it.

是啊是啊。这既让人兴奋又让人精疲力尽，老兄。我就是这么想的。

Yeah. Yeah. It's it's exciting and exhausting at the same time, man. That's how that's how I think about it.

这描述道路的方式真简单。对啊。天哪。好吧。布莱恩，在我们进入一个非常...

That's such a simple way of describing the road. Yeah. Oh my god. Okay. Brian, is there anything else before we get to a very

激动人心的环节前，就这样吧。我们来玩快问快答。

exciting That's it. Let's do lightning round.

来吧

Let's do

闪电战开始。

a zap zap.

好。叮叮叮。好了。布莱恩，我有五个问题要问你，准备好了吗？

Yeah. Ding ding ding. Alright. Brian, I've got five questions for you. Are you ready?

来吧，放马过来。

Let's do it. Let's do it.

好的。你最常向别人推荐的两三本书是什么？

Okay. What are two or three books that you find yourself recommending most to other people?

说实话，自从有了第二个孩子后，我就没时间完整读完一本书了。嗯。所以从完整阅读的角度来说，我确实没能做到。不过我经常主动阅读的内容，就像其他资讯一样，我要推荐的是Altimeter Capital的Jamin Ball写的精彩通讯《Clouded Judgment》，它混合了市场观点和市场统计数据，对我把握市场脉搏非常有用。最近我还读了一些NFX的材料，关于这些话题的内容都相当不错。我和James Currier有很多共鸣。

My my god honest answer is that I have not had the time to finish an entire book since I had my second child. Mhmm. So from a complete book standpoint, I have not I have not been able to, things that I've been you know, that I actively read on a regular basis, just like other content out there, that I'll throw out there is, gosh, Jamin Ball from Altimeter Capital writes this great newsletter called Clouded Judgment, which is kind of a mixture of market thoughts as well as, like, market stats, that, like that's really useful to help me keep a pulse on the market. You know, I was just reading through some, like, stuff from NFX that was, that that's been pretty good lately on all of this. I know James Currier and I share.

我们在社交领域经历过很多相似的周期，所以我对那些内容很有认同感。不知道算不算推荐，这两类是我很爱读的。另外我还想推荐另一个播客，是Spark Capital的两位合伙人Nabil Hyatt（我早在波士顿时期就认识他）和Frazier做的。抱歉，

We lived a lot of the same, cycles through social and stuff, so I tend to identify with that. So I don't know. Those are two things that, that I love reading. And, sorry, I'll give one more shout out to a different podcast, which is from, from two guys at Spark Capital, Nabil Hyatt, which I know from my early Boston days and Frazier. Sorry.

我一时想不起Frazier的姓氏了，他曾在OpenAI担任产品主管。他们的播客形式很棒，就是两人即兴讨论各种想法。是的，我强烈推荐这个节目，我非常喜欢。

I'm blanking on the last name right now who was head of product at OpenAI. They've got a great format where it's just those two riffing on some ideas and stuff. And, I, yeah, highly suggest that one. I I like that one a lot.

分享一个改变我阅读习惯的小技巧。长寿专家Brian Johnson有个改善睡眠的建议，包括睡前阅读十分钟

Here's my reading tip that has changed my reading habits. Brian Johnson, the longevity guy, he has this advice for better sleep, which includes before you go to sleep, read for ten minutes

在床上阅读。这确实能助眠。但问题是临睡前读的内容我能记住多少？你觉得你能记住吗？

in bed. Does put you to sleep. Part of like I retain anything that I read that close to bed, Do you feel like you retain it?

我能记住。我读的是小说。如果是非虚构类作品就...哦抱歉。

I do. I do. I'm reading fiction. Like, it's nonfiction. You wanna sorry.

对。你应该读些轻松的内容，不是那种需要学习的。所以我选择读小说，感觉很好。而且知道这能改善睡眠让我更有动力。实际上

Yeah. You wanna read something calm, not like I'm learning. So I'm reading I'm reading fiction, and it's really nice. And knowing that this is gonna help me sleep better makes me motivated. It's actually

这是一种激励。存在奖励机制。对。他们讨论过用奖励来促成行为改变。

There's an incentive. There's a reward there. The reward. Yeah. They're talking about rewards and creating behavior change.

没错。这么做的根本原因是想要降低静息心率，帮助减缓心跳。

Yeah. Exactly. And the the reason to do it is this whole thing is you wanna get to low resting heart rate, and then help slow your resting heart.

关于这方面我还有些其他助眠建议，如果你想了解我们可以下次再聊

So I've got some other sleep tips on that front if you wanna go down that path, but we'll save that

为你准备的。这将用于第三期播客。好的。下一个问题。你最近有没有特别喜欢的电影或电视剧？

for you. That'll be for the third podcast. Okay. Next question. Do have a favorite recent movie or TV show that you really see recently enjoyed?

虽然不是新剧，但我刚重看了《硅谷》，已经很久没看了。前几季的情节让我感到痛苦，因为在我的第一次创业中几乎经历了所有那些时刻，比如聘请白发CEO、融资在最后一刻泡汤等等疯狂的事情。但回顾这部剧，我发现他们写的一些额外细节和内容非常出色，让我觉得真的很棒。所以我最近一直在看。另一部纯粹为了放松娱乐、让大脑放空的是欧文·威尔逊在Apple TV的新剧《Stick》，讲述他饰演前职业高尔夫球手的故事。

It's not new, but I just rewatched Silicon Valley, that I hadn't watched in a number of times. And it's, it's painful because, like, the first few seasons, I went through almost every one of those moments in my first startup, like, hiring the gray haired CEO, the funding falling through at the last second, like, all the crazy stuff. But kinda going back and watching that, I like, there is just some extra nuances and stuff that I feel like they wrote really well that, that, you know, that I thought was that I thought was really good. So I've I've really been, watching that. The other thing is that I've watched is just more of, like, a just pure entertainment kind of calming thing, kind of turn the brain off is is Owen Wilson's new show on Apple TV, Stick, which is about him as a former professional golfer and and all that.

知道吗？我不会剧透，但这是一部非常轻松、略带趣味的好剧。

You know? I I won't ruin the show and stuff, but it's a nice it's a very nice, calming, little bit fun type type of show.

我在Apple TV上看到过这部剧。也许该去看看。好建议。你最近有没有发现特别喜爱的产品？可以是小工具。

I've been seeing that on my Apple TV. Maybe I should check it out. Good tip. Do you have a favorite product you recently discovered that you really love? It could be a gadget.

可以是手机应用、电脑软件，或者什么都不是。你可以说没有。

It could be a app on your phone. It could be something in your computer. It could be nothing at all. You can't see

虽然看不见，但我刚更新了整个设备。现在我用的是UltraGear超宽曲面屏，配了一张很棒的升降桌，品牌应该是Ergonafis。

it, but I do have, I just changed my whole setup. So now I have a, UltraGear super wide curved, screen Oh. With a very nice standing desk from, I believe, it's called Ergonafis or Nice. Yes. It's a Yeah.

拼写是E R G O N O F I S。这张升降桌设计简洁、非常稳固且安静，用起来很享受。

I think it's Ergonafis, E R G O N O F I S. And it's a very nice, sleek, standing desk, very stable, very quiet, very much enjoying. Excellent tip.

还有现在的显示器。非常酷。最后两个问题。你有经常回顾的人生格言吗？无论是工作还是生活中，遇到困难时或平时会想到的，可以分享给大家的？

And the and the current monitor. Very cool. Okay. Two more questions. Do you have a life motto that you often come back to and find useful in work or in life, something you share with folks, something that you think about when times are hard or just generally?

虽然现在有点老生常谈，但我以前在某个地方贴过'竞技场中的人'那句话。特别是在这个瞬息万变的时代，竞争激烈但机遇无限。我真的很尊重并享受这场游戏，喜欢和那些在竞技场中探索、钻研的人共处。

Look. It's a little cliche at this point, but I used to, somewhere around here, I used to have the quote, printed out about, you know, the man in the arena. Right? It's just like, just lots of lots of rare you know, especially in times like this where so many things are changing and, there's so much competition, but so much opportunity for great. I just I really both respect and enjoy, you know, the game and spending time with folks that are kind of in the arena figuring this stuff out, tinkering with things, and, and just yeah.

这就是我经常回顾的信念。在Reforged工作十年了——这是我生命中相当长的一段时间，我们经历过辉煌也度过艰难。所以我总会想起这个理念。

That's that's kinda a lot what I come keep coming back to, especially, you know, been out at Reforged for ten years. That's a that's a good portion of my life, and we've gone through some great periods and some tough periods. And, so I I tend to come back to that.

这正是《重铸》与其他众多内容和建议的区别所在。这是身处竞技场中的人们分享的智慧，而非仅仅是一群影响者的言论。令人遗憾的是查马斯把这件事搞砸了。

And that's what's always separated Reforged from so much other content and advices. It's people in the arena sharing their wisdom, not just bunch of influencers. And it's sad that Chamath made that

那段引用确实尴尬。我知道。我明白。正因如此我才说现在这话有点陈词滥调令人不适。

quote so cringey. I know. I know. That's why I know. That's that's why that's why I said it's a little cliche cringe right now.

是啊。把大家都拖下水了。最后一个问题。布莱恩，你不知道，你在亚当·费舍曼播客中分享的育儿建议深刻影响了我的育儿哲学，特别是你关于独立性的那段话。

Yeah. Screwed it up for everyone. Yeah. Final question. Brian, you don't know this, but your parenting advice on Adam Fisherman's podcast really impacted my parenting philosophy, specifically this line you had about independence.

哦。

Oh.

我很希望你能分享一下关于培养孩子独立性的见解。虽然我记不清具体出处了，但核心理念是：从孩子出生到十八岁离家，父母的职责就是逐步培养他们的独立性。这意味着要不断寻找机会让他们随着年龄增长做出更大更冒险的决定，父母作为后盾支持这些选择，但最终要让他们自主决策，直到十八岁时成为完全独立的个体。

And I'd love for you to just share that insight about how you think about raising kids. Yeah. And I wish I could remember where I grabbed this from so I could attribute it properly. So but, basically, the philosophy is like your job as if you think about going from when they're born until they're essentially 18 and, you know, leave the home, your job as a parent is to essentially make them more and more independent. And so what that involves is continuously looking for opportunities for them to make even bigger and riskier decisions, for themselves as they grow up, and you're there as, support to those decisions, but letting them make those decisions on their own so that by the time they're 18, they are a fully independent person able to think through those decisions themselves.

现在我儿子们还小，一个五岁一个三岁，不可能让他们做生死攸关或购房之类的决定。但这个年龄的小事也很重要，比如我五岁半的大儿子开始对金钱产生好奇——钱怎么花、东西从哪来、怎么赚钱。我们不再直接给他买东西，而是用他爷爷奶奶给的钱教他消费后果。

Now look like my sons are young. Right? They're five and three, so it's not like I'm having them make, you know, life and death decisions or where we might buy our next house or or stuff like that. But it's even small things at this age of, you know, my my oldest, like, and a half is really starting to learn and get curious about, like, money and how you spend money and where new things come from and how you you earn money. And and, and so rather than just, like, buying things for him, you know, we've he's got, like, money from his grandparents and stuff saved up, and we're trying we can be like, okay.

比如他可以买某样东西，但要花掉自己的积蓄。当他弄坏东西时，这也是教育契机。关键是把零到十八岁看作独立性培养的连续过程，父母作为支持者，目标是在孩子成年时将替他们做决定的比例降为零。这个理念自从我接触后就一直铭记于心。

Like, you can buy that thing, but you're gonna spend this and try to, like, teach him the consequences and, like, all that kind of stuff. And then when he breaks something right? Like so it's just small things like that, but thinking about the time from zero to 18 as the spectrum of independence and being, a supporting role in what you're essentially doing, you're you're trying to move as many decisions you as many the percentage of decisions you make for them down to zero by the time that they're 18. Like, and that's that's kind of something that, I've kinda I've kept in the back of my head since since really seeing that.

感谢分享。我事先没告诉你会问这个问题，所以...

Thank you for sharing that. I know I didn't tell you that I was gonna ask you about this, so that was

这个描述很精彩。我完全不记得那期播客具体内容了，但经你提醒——没错，就是这个理念，而且确实是个好方法。

a beautiful way of describing it. Yeah. I didn't know where I I couldn't remember that whole podcast. I had no idea what I said, but you you can That was it. But that but that's a good one.

是啊。

Yeah.

布莱恩，最后两个问题。如果想联系你，大家可以在哪里找到你？你们提供的产品在哪里可以找到，有什么想宣传的吗？另外，听众们怎样才能帮到你？

Brian, two final questions. Where can folks find you if they wanna reach out? What where can they find the products you guys offer, whatever you wanna plug? And, also, how can listeners be useful to you?

请访问reforged.com。看看我们的新产品，比如Reforged Insights。它们都在网站上。你可以找到我个人以及我的文章，包括今天我们讨论的很多内容，现在都在Substack上。

Check out reforged.com. Check out our new products, like Reforged Insights. They're on the website. You can find me personally, my writing, including a bunch of the stuff that we talked about today. Now on Substack.

我最近刚搬家。你可以访问我的个人网站brianbalfour.com，那里有一些信息，或者直接去blog.brianbalfour.com，我所有的新文章都在那里发布。但最主要的就这两部分。最后还有一点，就像我提到的，我以前和Farid Masavat一起工作，他以前用Slack。我们刚做了一个有趣的播客。

So I just recently moved. So you can either go to my website, brianbalfour.com, where I have some info or just, blog.brianbalfour.com, where, all of my new writing is taking place. But, those are the two major pieces. Last but not least is that, as I mentioned, Farid Masavat, who I used to work with, he used to Slack. We just have we have this fun podcast.

我们俩每隔几周就会在上面闲聊，就像在吃晚餐时讨论各种产品和战略之类的话题。对我们来说这是一种有趣的模式。如果你喜欢这类内容，这个播客叫《不请自来的反馈》，我们会给那些从未要求的人提供反馈和建议。

The two of us get on there and riff like we were having dinner every couple weeks about different, like, product and strategy, types of things. And so it's a it's it's a fun format for us. So if that's something you enjoy, it's called unsolicited feedback where we give feedback and advice to nobody that ever asked for it. So

太棒了。这名字起得好。瑞恩，非常感谢你今天来参加节目。

Amazing. Yeah. Title. Ryan, thank you so much for being here.

是的。再次感谢邀请我。这次很棒。大家再见。

Yeah. Thanks for having me again. This is great. Bye, everyone.

非常感谢大家的收听。如果你觉得本期节目有价值，可以在Apple Podcasts、Spotify或你喜欢的播客应用上订阅我们的节目。也请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，这真的能帮助其他听众发现这个播客。你可以在lennyspodcast.com上找到所有往期节目或了解更多关于节目的信息。下期节目再见。

Thank you so much for listening. If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review, as that really helps other listeners find the podcast. You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com. See you in the next episode.