比特币刚刚发出卖出信号，为何我依然看多？

嘿，各位，欢迎回到《少噪音，多信号》。

Hey, guys, welcome back to Less Noise, More Signal.

我想在银行上班和在家工作的间隙，再给你们带来一个更新。

I want to hit you with another update just in between the days that I'm also working at the bank, but then also at home.

所以我觉得现在有点压力，因为事情进展很快，得再给你们一个更新。

And so I feel like I feel kind of sort of pressured now to have you have another update given that things have been moving fast.

过去几周我们一直很乐观，很多同行也这样，这很正常。

We've been quite bullish the last few weeks as many of our peers rightly so.

我的意思是，比特币的价格已经证明了我们是对的。

I mean, the Bitcoin price has given us or has proved us right in that sense.

所以我们想知道，或者你们可能也想知道，接下来它会怎么走，还有那些可能拖累比特币的宏观因素是怎么回事。

And so we wanna know where it's or you guys also might be interested in knowing where is it going next and what's up with all the macro stuff that's also happening that might be a drag for Bitcoin.

我们需要担心吗？

Do we have to be afraid?

这波涨势能持续下去吗？

Can this rally continue?

我们想在这里说说我们的真实想法。

We want to give our genuine thoughts here.

所以如果我们放大看比特币的价格，可以看到，它一直在积累看涨的势头。

And so if we zoom into the Bitcoin price, you can see, I mean, it's been building up some bullish momentum.

可以说，我们又回到了看涨的区域。

We're back in bullish territory, so to say.

我的意思是，这些均线显示趋势还没有反转，但我们重新站上了这些均线，现在希望能把它们确立为支撑位。

I mean, the trend has not reversed yet with these averages, but we reconquered them and we now hopefully will establish them as support.

我们也认为，这里一个好的区域当然是五十周均线，就是那条紫线，还有十个月均线。

This is also what we believe a good area is certainly the fifty week moving average here, the purple line, and then also the ten move month moving average.

我们一直在这些均线之上。

We've been above it.

所以从技术面来看，这是非常积极的。

And so from a technical setup, this is very positive in that sense.

而且就像我们说的，我们很可能会再次测试至少那条紫线。

And as we said, it's highly likely that we will test at least the purple line again.

但情况看起来不错，我们甚至可能守住这条线，那样的话就真的要大干一场了。

But things look bright that we could even hold this line and then we would really be off to the races, I guess.

我们还看到了一些其他的确认信号。

We've seen some other confirmation as well.

我们来看看chainmind.io，这是他的仪表盘，也是我们的一个朋友。

If we go here on chainmind.io, his dashboard, a friend of ours as well.

我们之前请他上过节目。

We had him on the show.

我们还会再请他来的。

We'll get him back on as well.

他在链上分析方面做得非常出色，而且就是用这些图表来做的。

I mean, he's doing phenomenal work here with On Chain Analysis and just doing it with these graphs here.

所以我们很乐意借用他的一些图表。

And so we can kindly use some of these graphs.

你可以看到，这里是MVRV动量。

And you can see here, this is MVRV Momentum.

所以很明显，市场价值与已实现价值这个指标，是在告诉你普通比特币持有者的未实现盈亏情况。

So obviously Market Value to Realized Value kind of showing you where is unrealized losses and profits going with the average Bitcoin holder.

当这个指标再次变绿时，说明又有更多人处于盈利状态，这是个好兆头。

And with this turns green again, it just shows more people are again sort of in profit, which a good sign.

所以你可以看到，通常当这个指标重新回到绿色区域时，熊市往往就结束了。

And so here you can see usually when this moves back into green territory, the bear market was usually over.

在之前的熊市中，我们也见过这种情况。

And now we had it in previous bears.

你可以看到，我们重新回到了绿色区域。

You can see we moved back into green territory.

在2018年牛市之后，我们也见过这种情况。

We had it after the 2018 bull market.

当然，2020年新冠疫情给我们来了个措手不及，算是完全不同的情况。

Obviously, we had 2020 COVID, which kind of threw a wrench or threw us a curveball, so to say, which is a different situation altogether.

但上一次熊市，我们走出来之后，基本上一直处于绿色状态，大概一直到2024年8月吧。

But then also the last bear market, we came out of it and then we were green all the way through pretty much, I guess, maybe here in August 2024.

我们又经历了一些下跌的日子。

We had some red days again.

但这从某种意义上说非常有建设性。

But this is very constructive in that sense.

这恰恰说明，至少在未来十二到十八个月里，会有更多积极的表现。

It just goes to show that there is more positivity to be expected in the next twelve to eighteen months at least.

所以，这些都是非常有趣的东西。

And so very interesting stuff.

这些是我们想传达的内容，也是为了把时间框架搞清楚。

This is stuff we want to get across just to also get the time frames correct.

现在，再看看最近几天比特币的情况，我们可以切换到TradingView，查看日线图，最近三天都是阴线，红色蜡烛。

Now, again, what's happening with Bitcoin in the last few days, we can switch over to trading view again, check the daily chart here, ETC in the last three days at negative candles, red candles.

对我们来说，这也很合理，在这样的大涨之后，我们很可能会在这里形成局部顶部。

This was also quite logical to us that we would probably put the local top here after this huge move up in a few days as well.

为什么这么说呢？

And why so?

我是说，你可能也看到了。

I mean, you've seen it maybe as well.

如果我们回到X平台，本杰明·科恩，一位很棒的分析师，是个真诚的人。

If we move back to X, Benjamin Cohen, a great analyst, genuine guy.

我们之前请他上过节目。

We had him on the show before.

我们现在正在努力再次邀请他上节目。

We're currently working on getting him back on the show.

少一些噪音，多一些信号。

Less noise, more signal as well.

但他昨天发了这个，标题是“比特币，我哪里错了”。

But just kind of he he posted this yesterday, Bitcoin where I went wrong.

这有点像一篇道歉帖，他在道歉，说，对不起，各位，为之前的错误判断道歉。

And it was kind of this apology post where he was apology was sending out his apology and saying, well, sorry, guys, apologizing for being wrong.

我觉得犯错完全没问题，尤其是像他这样的人。

I mean, it's perfectly Okay to be wrong, especially with a guy like him.

他真是个了不起的分析师，知识渊博，而且很有智慧。

He's such a great analyst and had so much knowledge and just wisdom.

所以看到这个确实很有意思，但这也很能反映当前的市场情绪。

And so it's just interesting to see this, but this kind of like depicts the sentiment quite well.

所以对我们来说，很自然地会认为，价格会先稍微停滞一下，然后回落到某些水平，重新调整。

And so for us, it was only logical that with this, we will probably stall out a little and then go back to some levels and recalibrate.

就像我们说的，我们关注的水平大概在八万左右，或者七万八，那也是我认为目前两百日均线所在的位置。

And as we said, the level that we're looking for is around 80 ks I guess or 78 ks that's also where the I think, two hundred day moving average is at right now.

短期持有者的成本基础，以及一些非常关键的水平，真正的市场均值，都在那个区域。

And the cost basis of the short term holders and just very interesting levels, true market mean they're all in that territory.

如果我在这里打开两百日均线，你就能看到。

You can see it here if I toggle on the two hundred day moving average.

我觉得这就是我们在周线图上讨论的那个水平。

That's, I think, the level that we were talking about here on the weekly chart.

现在这个位置，已经低了很多了。

This is now this is way down.

我觉得应该是这样。

I guess it should be.

对，应该就是这个水平。

Yeah, it should be really much this level.

抱歉，显然是五十周移动平均线。

Sorry, the fifty week moving average, obviously.

这就是我们以78为目标的那个水平。

That's the level that we were targeting with the 78.

所以，是的，挺有意思的。

So yeah, interesting stuff.

从这个角度看，一切似乎都还行。

In that sense, everything seems to be okay ish.

现在，我们还能看到什么呢？

Now, what else can we see?

我的意思是，有趣的是我们看到比特币的流入，比特币ETF，它们仍然吸引大量资金流入。

I mean, what's interesting is that we see a Bitcoin flows, the Bitcoin ETFs, they're still pulling in a lot of flows.

而昨天或者最近这几天，就像我们看到的那样，对比特币来说并不是很好。

And yesterday or the last few days, as we've seen, they've not been really good for Bitcoin.

总的来说，价格一直在下跌，但资金流入依然相当强劲。

Generally, the price has been down, but still flows have been coming in quite strong.

虽然有所回落，但流入量还是很大。

They retracted a little, but they're still going heavy.

这向我们展示了这些ETF持有者，他们现在很重要。

And this kind of shows to us these ETF holders, which are important by now.

他们的成本价大概在84000美元左右，差不多这个水平。

Their cost basis is also around 84 ks ish, something around this.

我的意思是，如果他们继续持有，并且有更多资金流入而没有卖出，那就说明他们并不是想现在获利了结或者保本退出的人。

I mean, that's important if they hold and if there are more inflows and no selling, that kind of shows that these are not the ones that now want to realize profits and break break even and stuff.

所以他们是真的想坚持到行情上涨。

So they really want to hang on for the rally.

所以这里确实也有一些有趣的事情在发生。

So certainly interesting things happening here as well.

现在，如果我们再来看宏观层面，因为很多人会说，好吧，比特币看起来确实很有建设性。

Now, again, if we move over to macro, because a lot of people would be arguing, okay, Bitcoin, it looks very constructive.

我们回到了所有移动平均线之上，处于牛市区域，但宏观方面，我们面临所有这些不利因素，这确实不太好。

We're above all these moving averages back in bull territory, but then macro, we have all these headwinds and stuff that's really not good.

那么，如果宏观环境不好，我们怎么能看好比特币呢？

And so how can we be bullish Bitcoin if macro is not all right?

我同意这个观点，我想深入探讨一下，因为这是TBL流动性周期指标。

And I mean, I second that idea and I want to get into this because this is a TBL liquidity cycle indicator.

我想我们之前展示过这个。

I think we've shown it before.

这是由我们在TBL（比特币层）的好朋友们整理和制作的，包括Nick Badia、Johan Bergwijn，我们和他们定期制作这个视频。

It's organized and put together by our great friends over at the TBL, the Bitcoin layer, Nick Badia, Johan Bergwijn, with whom we do this regular video.

十月份还会有另一期。

There will be another one following in October.

所以请留意这一期。

So look out for this one.

所以就在几天前，也就是9月11日，他们发布了一个负流动性信号。

And so they printed a negative liquidity dot just a couple of days ago on September 11.

你可以在这里看到。

You can see it here.

那是一个负向的脉冲信号，一个红点，按照他们的模型，这意味着要卖出比特币。

That was a negative impulse dot, a red dot, which means in their model sell Bitcoin.

但显然，他们并不是在建议这么做。

But obviously they're not advising it as such.

他们只是展示这个信号。

They're just showing this.

而且我们认为这非常有意思。

And we think it's very interesting.

这正好表明流动性正在转向下行。

It just shows that liquidity is kind of turning down.

你也能看出为什么会这样。

And you can also see why this is happening.

如果我们看这里，流动性仪表盘，你就能看到这确实是因为这些输入。

If we go here, the liquidity dashboard, you can really see it's because of these inputs.

这个指标已经上升了。

The move has moved higher.

美元也稍微上涨了。

The dollar has moved a little higher.

这些都在拖累那个综合指标，最终导致这个指标出现了红点。

And these are all dragging indicators in that overall composite indicator that then make sure this thing has printed a red dot.

所以问题是，这里发生了什么？

And so the question is, Okay, what's happening here?

比特币自从出现这个红点以来，实际上已经上涨了。

Bitcoin ever since this red dot has actually moved higher.

所以问题是，流动性发生了什么变化？

And so the question is, what's happening with liquidity?

我们还会面临更多阻力吗？

Are we in for some more headwinds?

也许是的，但话说回来，因为比特币在打印绿色点，或者说不是绿色点，而是在打印绿色蜡烛，也许这表明比特币在发出信号，可能还有更多流动性即将到来，就在眼前。

Maybe yes, but maybe then again, because Bitcoin is printing green dots or not green dots, but is printing green candles, maybe shows us Bitcoin is signaling something that there might be more liquidity coming and is around the corner.

那么，是什么在推动这一切呢？

And so what could be driving this?

我是说，对我们来说有很多因素。

I mean, a lot of things for us.

总结一下，我们认为现在在利率方面有一个相当好的布局，或者说几乎可以说是完美定价。

And just to summarize this, we think there's now quite a good set up in the sense of interest rates or I would say price to perfection almost.

而且我认为这可能会逆转。

And I think this could be reversing.

如果这种情况逆转，那么比特币肯定会表现良好。

And if that reverses, then Bitcoin could definitely be doing well.

我们怎么论证这一点呢？

And how would we argue this?

你可以看到这一点。

And you can see this.

这是我们正在搭建的仪表盘，你可以看到，一年后的有效终端利率几乎高了100个基点。

This is our dashboard that we're building here and you can see effective terminal rates for interest rates one year out is almost 100 basis points higher.

所以这个终端利率相当高，而且要达到这个水平还有一段路要走。

And so that is quite a terminal rate and a way to get there.

这意味着，未来十二个月里，市场已经定价了更多的加息。

And so this means basically that more hikes are being priced across the next twelve months.

如果我们看这里，特别是今年最后两次会议，我们有很高的概率，74%和接近80%，会看到在那两次会议期间再加息25个基点。

And if we look here, especially this year with the last two meetings, we have a high chance this is 74% and almost 80% that we'll see another 25 basis point hike during those meetings.

所以市场真的认为美联储会加息。

And so the market really thinks that interest rates will be hiking or will be hiked by the Fed.

这可能就是宏观因素，再次成为很多人提到的逆风。

And that's why probably macro as again, this is the headwind that a lot of people speak of.

在这种情况下，比特币怎么能表现好呢？

How can Bitcoin do well in that scenario?

我们想指出，在2023年1月、2月，比特币刚从FTX熊市中走出来，我们也看到了一根巨大的阳线，然后在那段时间里我们进行了盘整。

We want to point out that back in February, January 2023, when Bitcoin was coming out of this FTX bear market and we put in a huge green candle as well, then we consolidated during this period.

当时美联储也在加息。

We also had the Fed raking hikes.

你可以把它输入到OpenAI的GDP或者Cloud，或者你用的任何工具里。

You can type it into open a jet GDP or cloud or whatever you're using.

它会直接显示给你看。

It will show it to you.

那段时间美联储也在加息，而比特币……

The Fed also raked hike back in that period and Bitcoin.

它并没有大幅暴跌。

It didn't tank like enormously.

实际上是在横盘整理。

It was actually consolidating.

所以比特币也可能出现类似的情况。

And so something like this could also be possible for Bitcoin.

也许现在不会大幅上涨，但会横盘整理。

Maybe not a huge move up just now, but consolidation.

所以，即使这是基本情景，我们也认为现在继续持有比特币是合理的，因为我们看到市场甚至可能反转，不得不重新消化部分加息预期，那样的话比特币真的会飙升。

And so if that is even the base case, that's why we think it makes sense to remain invested and hold on to BTC for now, because we see the possibility that this could even reverse, that the market will have to price out some of these hikes again and then that would actually send Bitcoin soaring.

这是肯定的。

That's for sure.

那我们为什么这么认为呢？

And why do we think so?

我是说，再说一次，正如我们所说，市场对加息已经几乎完美定价了，就像我们看到的，有很多关于加息的预期。

I mean, again, as we said, we are almost priced to perfection when it comes to these interest rate hikes, as we've seen here, a lot of expectation that there will be these hikes.

而且我们认为，这一切可能主要是由现在的油价驱动的，因为人们预期油价会更高。

And all of this is probably driven in our view by oil prices right now, because people expect oil they're higher.

这就是为什么，由于这些高油价，正如你在这里看到的，问题在于这会传导到通胀和油价上。

And that's why because of these high oil prices, as you can see here, the problem is that this will feed through into inflation and oil prices.

是的，九月份油价确实上涨了，这是我们没有预料到的，尤其是在之前这么高的水平之后。

Yeah, they have gone higher in September, something we did not expect after this high sort of here.

我们原本以为会有更低的低点，但结果出现了更高的低点。

And we thought there's going to be lower lows but then we had this higher low.

我们仍然认为，与今年四月相比，这是一个更高的低点。

We still think it's a higher low compared to April of this year.

但后来，确实对股市和比特币造成了一些拖累和压力。

But then yeah, has dragged or put some drag on equities and some pressure on equities and BTC as well.

那么接下来会怎么走呢？

And now where are we going next?

我们觉得，在“少噪音，多信号”这里，情况很可能会再次反转，因为我们感觉特朗普……

And we think here over at Less Noise, More Sigma, it's high like it's likely that this could reverse again because we just feel like Trump.

是的，他可能被迫缓和战争局势，或者至少尝试推动一些和平谈判，从而压低油价。

Yeah, he might be forced to kind of de escalate the war situation or at least try to get some truth working and still bring oil prices lower in that sense.

另外，还有可能增加供应。

And also there's the possibility of more supply coming online.

这就是为什么我们认为，如果油价不再上涨，那么利率自然也会下降。

That's why we think if oil will not move higher again, then obviously interest rates will come down as well.

你可以从供应贡献中看到这一点。

And you can see it here with the supply contribution.

这真的是目前对石油来说最重要的事情。

This is really pretty much the most important thing right now for oil.

需求方面的影响没那么大。

It's not a demand stuff that much.

主要还是供应的问题，供应有点受限。

It's really supply thing, which maybe supply which is kind of constrained.

但如果供应增加，那会是利好的。

But if there's more supply coming online, that would be bullish.

而且中国的情况也不好说，可能需求会有所抑制，那样的话也是净正面，因为需求减少可能对应供应减少。

And you never know about China, maybe restraining some of their demand and that would then also be net positive because less demand meets maybe less supply.

但那样也还是好事。

But that's still good.

所以，是的，我们认为现在利率可能被过度定价了。

And so, yeah, we see a lot of possibility for interest rates to maybe be overly priced right now.

一旦利率回落，那将是利好的。

And once they come back, that will be bullish.

要留意特朗普的C会议，今天也正好在开，他们今天有会议。

Watch out for the Trump C meeting, which is also happening just today and their meeting today.

结果还没出来。

It's not out.

可能等这个发布的时候，我们已经知道一些情况了。

Maybe by the time this is published, we will already know some stuff.

也许特朗普也会借这个会议来缓和局势，然后让油价再降下来。

Maybe Trump also uses this as a meeting to deescalate and then kind of bring oil prices down again.

你永远不知道，特朗普可能一条推文就能让油价暴跌，然后推高比特币和其他风险资产，因为也有可能他是在利用最近这波油价上涨作为跟中国谈判的筹码，他知道九月底要跟中国会面。

You never know if Trump is just one tweet away from him tweeting something and then oil could just tank and send Bitcoin and other risk assets higher, because it could also be that he was really using this recent sort of rally in oil prices as some negotiation tactic now with China, where he knew he will be meeting with China by the end of September.

所以油价高一点，他谈判时可能更有底气，因为他可以说，嘿，你们得跟伊朗合作，不然你们也不好过，因为你们从伊朗进口大量石油，你们中国那边。

And so with higher oil prices, he can maybe have some more leverage in negotiation because then he can say, hey guys, you need to work with Iran because otherwise you also are bad off because you import a lot of oil from Iran and you guys over in China.

所以这大概也是特朗普在这里用的策略。

And so that's probably also the tactics that Trump is using here.

对，我们等着瞧吧。

So yeah, we'll see.

这些都是猜测，但我们只是想让你知道，这种情况是有可能发生的。

This is all speculation but we just wanted to put it across to you that this could be happening.

所以，如果是这样的话，我们认为，就像我们之前说的，通胀会下降。

And so yeah, if that were the case, then we think, as already said, inflation would be moving down.

我们觉得，其中一些可能已经在两年期和十年期通胀互换中有所体现，或者我们可能已经看到了这种迹象。

We feel like some of it might already be signaling or might be we might already be seeing this here in two year, ten year inflation swaps.

它们已经下降了。

They have come down.

最近几天它们略有回升，但五年期通胀互换也下降了。

They ticked up a little in the last few days, but also five year inflation swap, they have come down.

这确实是通胀预期在下降。

And that's really the inflation expectations that are coming down.

所以如果它们持续下降，那么情况实际上可能会很好。

And so if they are ticking down, then things could actually look good.

最后我们想给你看的是，当我们转到这个脚本时，这里也有一个。

And the last thing that we wanted to show you is also here when we move over to this script.

这显示的是什么？

What is this showing?

这实际上显示的是收益率曲线的平坦化或陡峭化，这一点非常重要。

This is really showing a flattening or a steepening in the yield curve, which is very important.

显然，我们之前经历了很多熊市平坦化，也就是两年期收益率在上升，但上升速度比长期和十年期收益率更快。

And obviously we had a lot of flattening in the bear in the yield curve, a bear flattening, which means two year yields were rising, but they were rising faster than the long and ten year yields.

所以这就是为什么它对流动性有轻微的负面影响。

And so that's why it's marginally negative for liquidity.

现在我们已经可以看到这里有一点重新陡峭化的迹象。

And now we can already see here a little re steepening.

这还没有转化为熊市陡峭化，如果那样的话又会是好事，因为那实际上表明两年期收益率已经消化了加息预期，利率可能也会被消化掉加息的影响。

It has not yet translated into a bear steepening, which would then again be good because it would actually show that two year yields things are priced out and interest rates could then be priced out interest rate hikes.

但你看，这里就能看到。

But yeah, I mean, you can see it here.

也许这已经是反转的迹象，这正好说明了我们刚才提到的，利率可能不会大幅上升。

Maybe this is already a reversal, which goes to show the same thing that we just said, that interest rates might not be headed that much higher.

对，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

所以就是这样。

So that was it.

这是我们这边的一个快速更新。

Just quick update from our side.

我们还在继续研究模型。

We're still working on models.

我们还在做很多事情，为了减少噪音、增强信号，并且把所有东西都纳入我们自己的体系里，这样我们就能把这些成果带给你们，让你们从中受益。

We're still working on a lot of things for less noise, more signal and to have everything proprietary under our umbrella, so to say, so that we can then put it to you guys and you can benefit from this.

所以请继续关注，很快会有更多更新。

So stay tuned for more updates soon.

不过与此同时，我希望这个快速更新对你有帮助，虽然我可能有点不在状态，因为脑子里事情比较多。

But in the meantime, I hope this quick update, even though maybe I was a little bit under the weather, so to say, because there's a lot of things on my mind.

希望这个也能帮到你。

I hope this helped as well.

所以请点个赞，喜欢这个视频的话，分享给你的朋友，有问题就留言。

And so please give it a thumbs up, like the video, share with your friends, comment if you have questions.

这对我们很有帮助，那我们下次见。

This helps us and then see you next time.

非常感谢大家。

Thanks a lot, guys.

再见。

Bye.