比特币市场动态：为何跌破6万美元可能已成过去

嘿，大家好。

Hey, hey, guys.

欢迎回到《少噪音，多信号》节目。

Welcome back to Less Noise, More Signal.

我确实答应过要准时给大家带来最新的比特币更新视频。

I did promise to bring you a new Bitcoin update video just in time.

所以，这就是今天的更新内容。

So this is it.

我这是在2026年7月9日录制的，显而易见。

I'm recording this on 09/07/2026, obviously.

对，我不会去聊Liquid Network以及最近发生的事。

And yeah, I'm not going to talk about the Liquid Network and what's been happening.

消息就是今晚在瑞士刚刚爆出来的。

We just the news just broke this night here over in Switzerland.

据说Liquid Network的联合桥接器被白帽黑客盗走了4000枚比特币。

Liquid Network supposedly 4,000 BTCs have been taken from their federated bridge, so to say, by white hat hackers.

他们好像在链上和Blockstream沟通，说等漏洞或者bug修好之后就把币还回来。

And they're sort of communicating with Blockstream on chain if they're going to return it once the vulnerability or the bugs have been fixed.

所以还挺让人兴奋的。

So quite exciting.

不过我暂时先不聊这个。

But I'm not going to talk about this just now.

我会和我的好同事、来自TBL（Bitcoin Layer）的Johan Bergmann一起讨论这件事。

I will be talking about this with my good colleague, Johan Bergmann from TBL, the Bitcoin Layer.

另外，今天晚些时候我们会录制那期视频，很快就能和大家见面。

Also later today, we'll record that video and it will be out quite soon.

所以也请大家留意一下。

So look out for this as well.

是的，也希望你们能一起观看。

And yeah, I would enjoy you guys watching in as well.

那么今天，按照之前的承诺，我想和大家聊聊比特币市场的最新动态。

So today, as promised, I want to talk about BTC market update.

在聊比特币之前，我必须先再提一下宏观环境。

And I can't talk about BTC without referencing macro again first.

大家应该刚看过我们发的简报吧？标题是《九月高瞻远瞩：特朗普的大计划》。

I mean, obviously we just had a newsletter recently published here, might have seen it, September high Trump has and have a bigger plan.

还没看过的朋友建议去读一读，或者看看我们录制的视频版，内容都在里面了。

Go read it if you haven't read it already or check out the grand plan video where we recorded things in video.

在那期内容里，我也已经谈到过比特币了。

And there I also talked about BTC already.

不过我想给大家更细致地更新一下比特币的情况。

But I want to give you a more granular update on BTC.

问题是，聊比特币不能只盯着比特币本身。

Now, thing is with BTC, we can't just talk about BTC itself.

大家现在看到的这张幻灯片，其实是我从银行那份日常工作里偷偷带过来的，我在那儿担任投资经理。

This slide that you're seeing here is really a slide that I sneaked in from my day job over at the bank that I work for as investment manager.

这也是我们在银行内部分析比特币的方式。

And this is how I analyze and we analyze Bitcoin as part of the bank.

我们经常被问到，比特币怎么估值？

We often get asked the question, how do you value Bitcoin?

然后我们一般会回答，可能不像传统股票那样去估值，但你可以给它定价，方法就是看这里这六个方块或矩形。

And then we're sort of answering, well, it's probably not that you value it in the sense as you do it with traditional equities, but you can price it and you can do so by looking at these six sort of quadrants or rectangles that you see here, these boxes.

我们就是这么做的。

This is how we do it.

宏观分析、技术分析，技术分析算是轻量级的，不算很深，但也是技术分析。

Macro analysis, technical analysis, light heavy lightweight, I would say not that deep, but still technical.

链上分析、情绪分析、叙事分析和需求分析。

On chain analysis, sentiment analysis, narrative analysis and demand analysis.

所以挺多的。

So a lot.

我想逐个方块过一遍，带你看看我们具体怎么操作。

And I want to tick each box now and take you through this and how we do it.

那我们先从宏观开始。

So let's turn to macro first.

这是怎么回事？

What's the thing?

我的意思是，让我快速重申一下我们在报告里已经写的内容。

I mean, let me quickly reiterate what we already wrote in our report.

现在最大的问题，可以说是油价上涨。跟2025年相比，油价相对低很多，现在因为战争而飙升，而且仍然处于高位。

The big problem right now, quote unquote, is really the higher oil prices, higher oil prices compared to what if you look at 2025, they've been comparatively a lot lower and now they spiked up because of the war and they're still sort of elevated.

正因为油价上涨，各国央行，尤其是美国，一直按兵不动。

And because of this, because of these higher oil prices, central banks have been staying put, like especially in The US.

再回到那个大计划视频或文章，我们解释了贝森特和特朗普他们真的想尽可能保持低利率，原因有很多，我们就不细说了。

Go again to the grand plan video or the article where we explained that like wash with Bessent and Trump, they really want to keep rates as low as possible because of different reasons we cannot get into.

我们在视频里已经讲过了。

We did already in the video.

但问题就在这里。

But then this is the thing.

央行，美联储，因为不确定性而按兵不动，不确定这些高油价是否会真正传导到核心通胀。

The central banks, the Fed, they're staying put because of this uncertainty, whether these higher oil prices will actually feed through into core inflation.

他们不确定，没人能知道。

They're not sure, nobody can know.

所以这就是他们目前暂停的原因。

And so that's why they're currently pausing.

如果你把那些讨论的政治因素放一边，这算是他们的首要原因。

That's sort of their number one reason if you want to set aside all the politics that's being discussed as well.

所以，因为这些央行目前暂停，不在短期端加息，这就给长期端带来了上行压力，尤其是在美国。

And so because these central banks are currently pausing and don't hike at the short end, upward pressure is being put on the long end, especially in The US.

我们看到的这种上行压力，就是因为这个。

The sort of the upward pressure that we're seeing is just because of this.

再加上我们看到的AI资本支出和政府支出，这些在我提到的文章里都解释过了，但那真的是主要原因。

In addition to AI CapEx spend that we're seeing and government spending, all explained in the article that I referenced, but that's really the primary reason.

而且，你知道，在市场看来，相对于基础经济的增长，沃什和贝森特可能采取了过于宽松的立场，这就是长期端在反抗的原因。

And, you know, wash and Besson in the eyes of the markets are arguably taking too much of an accommodative stance relative to growth that's going on in the underlying economy and that's why the long end is revolting.

这既相对于增长，也相对于，好吧，也许这种通胀会传导过来，所以你不能那么宽松，但央行又会说，我们不知道，所以我们不会这么做。

It's relative to the growth as well as to, okay, maybe this inflation will feed through so you cannot be as accommodative, but central banks are then again like, we don't know so that's why we're not going to do it.

所以这可能让央行面临政策失误的风险，或者它们就是太宽松了，系统里流动性太多了。

So this could be setting the central banks up for potential policy error or they are just too accommodative, too much liquidity in the system.

我们等着看会不会发生这种情况。

And we'll see if this has happened.

目前我们不这么认为，因为正如我们在报告和文章里解释的，我们认为油价没有明显迹象会传导到核心价格。

Currently we don't think so because as we explained in this report as well and in the article, we don't think that these oil prices that there are any clear signs that this is transitioning through into core prices.

所以这就是为什么我们认为央行目前的做法可能是对的。

And so that's why we think central banks are maybe doing the right thing as of now.

但问题是，为什么这些上升的长期收益率没有对风险资产造成进一步的下行压力呢？

But then the question is why is this not having further downside pressure on risk assets, these longer and yields that are rising.

我们在报告里也解释了这一点。

And again, we explain it in the report.

再强调一下，这是因为长期收益率主要是由经济增长驱动的，而不是通胀预期。

And just to reiterate, this is because long end yield have been driven mostly by growth and not so much by inflation expectation.

大概就是这么回事。

That's kind of like the thing.

所以，是的，我们快速看一下长期波动率怎么样？

And so, yeah, what can we look at just real quick if we we take a look here at long end volatility?

我的意思是，情况看起来还算可以。

I mean, things are still looking quite okay ish.

这是三十年期债券。

This is a thirty year bond.

它的波动率，隐含波动率，从八月份以来一直在下降。

It's volatility, implied volatility, and it has come down ever since August.

而且就在最近几天，它又下降了，过去五天都在下降，这说明市场并不担心债券价格已经见底，也不担心油价会真正传导过来。

And just also in the last few days, again, it has ticked down the last five days, which has shown market is not really worried about that bond prices have found a low and that oil could really seep through.

但这也是个问题，如果隐含波动率这么低，而事情的发展又不像市场预期的那样，那情况可能会失控。

But that's also a problem if implied volatility is so low and things are not turning out how the market expects, then things could kind of get out of hand.

另一个表明市场不太担心的迹象是今年。

And another indication that markets are not worried that much is this year.

这是债券的波动率指数。

It's the move index volatility for bonds.

这个其实就有点像债券市场的VIX指数。

This is also it's kind of like the equivalent equivalent to VIX.

它最近也在这个区间里来回震荡，而且过去几天也下降了。

And it's been chopping around in this range as well and has come down in the last few days as well.

所以这就是我们现在看到的所有问题。

And so this is all the problem that we're seeing now.

再说一次，这真的有可能往任何一个方向发展。

Again, this is really just it could be going either way.

我的意思是，如果我们看一下我们的流动性模型，让我看看能不能调出来。

I mean, if we look at our liquidity model and let me see if I can pull it up here.

这是我们自己内部的一个指标，用来衡量流动性的。

This is our own internal metric, how we measure liquidity.

这些是我们输入到这个模型里的一些参数。

These are some of the inputs here that we're putting into this model.

我们已经看到，在过去的五天里，尽管MOVE指数和收益率或者说隐含波动率已经下降了。

We can already see in the last five days, even though move and yields have or implied volatility has come down.

你看我们的蓝线，这是观察流动性走向最快的指标，它正在往下走。

I mean, our blue line here, which is like the fastest sort of indicator to see where liquidity is going, it's ticking down.

如果蓝线往下走，黄线可能也会跟着掉头，实际的流动性分数是黄线，不对，是白线。

And if blue is ticking down, yellow might then roll over and the actual liquidity score is here in yellow, in white, sorry.

我们可以看到，从八月底左右开始，我们又跌到了负值区域，不过那也不算太糟。

And we can see we are still ever since early or like late August, we have ticked down into negative territory again, which is not that bad.

我们之前有过更低，也有过更高的情况，但它仍然显示流动性。

I mean, we've been lower, we've been higher, but it still shows liquidity.

流动性仍然很充足，但从这个模型关注的短期时间框架来看，流动性可能会开始收紧，我们也不确定，但这只是我们跟踪的一些数据。

It is still ample, but on a very short, short term time frame, which this model is looking at, it looks like liquidity could be maybe rolling over, we don't know, but this is just stuff we're tracking as well.

然后我们跟踪的另一件事，还是同样的显示，让我把这个收起来。

And then the other thing that we're tracking here again, it's the same thing showing, let me put this away.

我想给你看看这个。

I want to show you this here.

这是我们提出的另一个模型。

It's another model that we come up with.

它追踪的是基础经济体的增长和通胀情况，同样是在一个非常短的时间框架内。

It tracks growth and inflation in the underlying economy again on a very short timeframe.

你可以看到，从八月初开始，通胀的冲击力度就一直在大幅上升。

And you can see ever since the beginning of August, like inflation impulses have been ticking up big time in that sense.

这里的走势相当陡峭。

It's quite a vertical here.

与此同时，经济增长却保持平稳。

And growth at the same time has been staying put.

正如我之前提到的，经济的基本面增长势头很强。

And as we know, as I said, the underlying growth in the economy is high.

名义GDP增速在6%左右，各项指标看起来都很不错，比如AI投资和资本开支都在增加。

Nominal GDP at 6%, everything seems to be going well, AI, CapEx spend.

但如果这条绿线开始下滑，我觉得这对股票和比特币这类风险资产就不是好消息了。因为到时候通胀预期可能会成为推高收益率的主要因素，这对风险资产来说就不再是利好。

But then if this were to tick lower, the green line, then I think this would not be good for risk assets like equities and Bitcoin, because then finally like inflation expectation could be the thing driving yields like to a bigger extent and then I think it would not be positive risk assets anymore.

所以，局势的走向其实就取决于这个指标的变化。

And so this is really the fate that is being decided here.

我们依然认为这条黄线不会涨得太高。

We still think that this yellow line will not go much, much higher.

不过对，我们需要继续观察，毕竟我们也无法确切知道未来会怎样，谁也没有水晶球能预知一切。

But yeah, we have to observe this and we couldn't really know as well because we have no crystal ball.

但大家心里要有个底，如果经济增长出现任何程度的恶化，风险资产可能会大跌。

But just to have this in mind, if growth starts to deteriorate in any sort of way, risk will probably tank.

另一方面，油价也可能随时因为来自特朗普政府的消息或其他因素而大幅跳空下跌。

On the other side, on the flip side, oil could also be gapping down any moment with the news coming from the Trump administration or whatever.

然后我觉得，如果这个差距缩小，比特币和黄金会再次大幅上涨，并且有所企稳。

And then I think if we saw this gap down, then BTC and gold would again be rallying quite significantly and catching a bit.

为什么会这样呢？

And why is this?

因为我们认为，由于对通胀的担忧，比特币和黄金的表现一直受到压制。

Because we believe that BTC and gold are sort of held kind of back in check because of the inflation fears.

如果情况真的像那样发展——比如油价显著回落——那么这些担忧就会烟消云散。

And if they would vein, which would be the case, if oil would come down again remarkably, then I think these fears would be done with.

所以我们要觉得黄金和比特币会表现不错。

And that's why we think gold and BTC would be doing quite well.

今年你看，它们俩的相关性还挺像样的。

And you can see for this year they've been correlated quite okay ish.

我是说，你看那条白线，那是油价在跌，但那时候比特币和黄金也跟着往下走了。

I mean, if you look the white line, this is oil coming down, but then BTC and gold were also coming down here.

这条是比特币，那条是黄金。

This is BTC, this is gold.

对于比特币，我觉得我们也处于这种特殊的熊市之中。

For BTC, think we're in this special bear market as well.

黄金之前可能也是因为实际利率也在下降，这反过来又对经济增长造成了压力。

Gold was probably because of real rates also coming down, which again was growth that was weighing on it.

所以相比之下，持有股票比持有黄金更合理。

So it makes more sense to be in equities and not gold.

但这次情况不同，当油价上涨时，比特币和黄金也跟着上涨了。

But then again, this time when oil moves higher, BTC and gold moved higher.

但我认为这种相关性可能会被打破，如果油价下跌，其他资产就会上涨。

But I think this correlation could potentially break if oil came down, the other things would go up.

是的。

Yes.

所以这就是我们想要呈现的宏观分析。

So this is really the analysis, the macro analysis that we want to have stand your way.

现在让我们转向技术面。

Now let's move over to the technical stuff.

这里我们也关注很多人都在关注的东西。

And here we also follow stuff that a lot of people are following as well.

这是牛市熊市、支撑位或阻力位区间。

This is a bull market bear bull or bear market support or resistance band.

在熊市中，它是阻力位区间。

In a bear market it's a resistance band.

在牛市中，它可能是支撑位区间，我们在这里一根大阳线直接突破，现在正在上方盘整，看起来不错。

In a bull market it might be a support band and we shot through this in one big green candle here and are now consolidating above, which is looking good.

只要我们还在这个位置，就没问题。

As long as we're up here, we're good.

但我们必须把它变成支撑位，才能真正说牛市回来了，因为正如我所说，这是牛市的支撑带，它需要起到支撑作用。

But we have to turn this into support to really say that the bull market is back because as I said, it's the bull market support band and it needs to act as support.

接下来我们还要看什么？

Now, what else are we looking at?

这些移动平均线，很多人也都在看。

All these moving averages like many people do.

目前对我们来说最有趣的移动平均线是十个月简单移动平均线，大概在74左右。

The most interesting moving average for us currently is the ten month SMA, which is around 74 ish or something.

对，74。

Yeah, 74.

你可以在这里看到，74.7。

You can see it here, seventy four seven.

我觉得比特币在接下来的几天或几周内可能会测试这个水平。

I think this is a level that BTC could be testing in the next few days and weeks.

它依然非常强劲，但我是说，是的，这是我们觉得有可能或者认为可能发生的情况。

It is remarkably strong still, but I mean, yeah, something that we would see possible or think it's possible.

再说一次，我们现在是处于牛市还是熊市，还是从熊市趋势过渡到牛市？

Again, are we in this bull market or bear market uptrend transitioning into a bull market?

我们确实这么认为。

We do think so.

我们今天晚些时候也会和Johan讨论这个。

We're discussing this with Johan later today as well.

我们想让你看看Joe Caldasares发的这个帖子。

One thing we want to point you to is this post by Joe Caldasares.

挺有意思的内容。

Just interesting stuff.

他最近问了Rock。

He recently asked Rock.

比特币现在已经连续十五天收盘价高于其两百日移动平均线。

Bitcoin has now closed above its two hundred day moving average for fifteen consecutive days.

这条橙色的线就是两百日均线。

The two hundred day average is this orange line here.

所以我们现在远高于它，而且已经连续十五天以上收盘在它上方，就像他要求的那样。

So we're quite above it and we have closed above it as he asked for for the last fifteen plus consecutive days.

从历史上看，比特币有没有再跌下去，创出新的熊市低点？

Historically, Bitcoin ever done go lower again to make a new market bear market low?

Grock的回答是没有。

And Grock answered no.

比特币从未在熊市中连续十五天以上收盘高于两百日均线，然后又创出新的周期低点。

Bitcoin has never closed above its two hundred day moving average for fifteen plus consecutive days in a bear market and then made a new cycle low.

所以这也挺有意思的。

So that's also quite interesting.

这是历史数据。

It's history.

虽然未来也可能打破，但这一点值得留意。

It can always fail, but something you want to keep in mind.

所以，是的，从技术面来看，情况看起来还是不错的。

And so, yeah, technical wise things are still looking good.

显然，我们有这些二十，我们有五十周均线，抱歉，五十周均线，我们还在和它较劲。

Obviously, we have these twenty we have the fifty day sorry, the fifty week moving average and we're still battling with this one.

我们还没有突破它。

We haven't gone through it.

我们甚至两次突破了它，但还没有把它变成支撑位。

We waked above it like even twice, but we haven't switched this into support.

所以这仍然是我们正在争夺的一个水平。

So this is still a level we are fighting with.

我认为82.5千也是我们在五月份触及的水平。

I think 82.5 ks was also the level that we hit here in May.

这次仍然是两百日均线。

This time it was still the two hundred day moving average.

我们被拒绝了，所以这次82.5对比特币来说是一个非常关键的水平。

We were rejected and this time so this 82.5 is a very important level for BTC.

对，我们认为这个价位迟早会被突破，甚至可能就在今年。

Yeah, we think it will be taken out at some point, maybe even this year.

这是我们的假设。

This is what we assume.

这也是我们的基准情景。

It's our base case.

不过，就像我们之前提到的，在进一步上涨之前先进行一段时间的盘整，肯定也是好事。

But maybe again, as we said, some consolidation before we move higher would certainly be also a good thing.

对。

Yes.

接下来看链上分析？

What's next on chain analysis?

所以我们也在看看，稍微快速过一下。

So we're looking at as well, maybe real quick.

这也有助于搞清楚，现在到底在发生什么？

This also helps to kind of see, Okay, what's happening now?

人们在链上都在做什么呢？

What are people doing on chain?

这里我们来看看一些模型，这些模型是我们的朋友在链上追踪的。

And here we turn to stuff that we're seeing also with models that our friends are tracking on chain mind here.

这个模型挺有意思的。

Interesting model.

它看的是已实现价格还是已实现利润？

Realized price or realized profit is this looking at?

很多人都在说，比特币涨了一波之后又停滞了。

And a lot of people were saying, yeah, I mean, we had this move with BTC up and then it kind of stalled again.

为什么会这样呢？

And why was this the case?

我觉得主要是因为很多聪明的资金投资者又抛售了。

I think it was mostly the case because a lot of smart money investors sold off again.

你在这里可以清楚地看到这一点。

And you can really see it here.

这是盈亏情况。

It's profit and loss.

这是按持有时间分组的已实现利润。

This is profit, realized profit by age cohorts.

有意思的是，如果你把一天到一周、一周到一个月、一个月到三个月这些持有期的人都去掉，也就是所有在过去三个月内买入比特币的人，你会发现几乎所有的获利了结和已实现利润都消失了。

And what's interesting, if you take off one day to one week, one week to one month, one month to three months, so all the people who have bought Bitcoin in the last three months, if you take all of them off, you can see almost all the profit taking and realized profit taking is going away.

这说明很多在夏季低点买入、当时猜测三季度或四季度可能会好转的人，

So this goes to show that a lot of people who have just bought during the summer lows who were speculating, Okay, maybe Q3, Q4 it could become better.

现在都在套现离场，这显然给比特币带来了抛售压力。

They are now all taking chips off the table, which obviously is sell pressure that Bitcoin has to work through.

这是从熊市转向牛市阶段的典型现象，就是有人过早卖出，可能真的太早了。

This is very typical in a phase where it's going from a bear market to a bull phase again, transitioning that you have people selling out early, potentially way too early.

不过，这就是我们看到的情况。

But yeah, this is just stuff we're seeing.

另一个可视化的方式是用Check On Chain这个工具，非常好用，按持有时间分组显示投资价值。

And another way to visualize this, it's a tool by Check On Chain, very great tool, invested value by cohort.

这个你每天都能查到。

You can check this for every day.

如果我们回到8月17号，这里有个像哈利法塔一样的塔形结构。

And if we go back here to August 17, we had this Burj Khalifa type tower here.

这些都是短期持有者在6万左右、6万4这个区域买入的，他们在这里筑起了一道墙。

This was all short term holders that bought in this sixty ks ish, 64 region, this wall that they built up here.

然后我们再看接下来几天，比特币价格继续往上走，我记得8月19号比特币真正开始大涨。

And if we now go through all the days that with BTC also then ticking higher, I think August 19 was when Bitcoin really rallied.

你会看到这道墙或者说这个塔形结构真的开始瓦解了，你在这里就能看到。

You saw this wall or this tower really come down, which means you see it here.

它在不断下降，不断下降，不断下降，一直到9月还在降，但降幅已经没那么大了。

It's coming lower, coming lower, coming lower, going to September, still going lower, but not that much anymore.

最近几天几乎停滞了。

It almost stalled in the last few days.

然后这里又筑起了一道墙，因为人们在这个价位，大概8万、7万7、7万8左右，又开始买入比特币了。

And then it was built up here again because people were buying BTC up with these prices here around 80 ks and 77 and 78 stuff.

你能清楚地看到，这也是我们观察到很多人抛售的时候，但市场已经降温了。

And you can really see this is also what we saw a lot of people sold off, but it had already cooled down.

这座哈利法塔已经不是哈利法塔了，可能变成了埃菲尔铁塔之类的，但它不会再大幅下跌，这也给我们一个信号。

This Burj Khalifa Tower is not Burj Khalifa anymore, maybe Tower Of Eiffel or whatever, but it's not going that much lower, which also is an indication for us.

也许这些游客和聪明钱人士，也就是交易员们，已经完成了他们的操作，这是个好现象，我们应该看到这一点。

Maybe these tourists and smart money guys, these traders have already done their job and this is a good thing you want to see.

所以比特币现在正在盘整，大概也是因为这个原因。

And that's why probably also Bitcoin is consolidating right now.

所以，对，这就是本期视频里想跟大家提到的链上数据。

So, yeah, this is the On-Chain stuff we wanted to reference in this video.

我们还有很多其他内容在关注，不过这部分我们会留到后面的视频里再详细讲。

We have a lot of other things that we're looking at, but we'll reference this in a later video for you.

希望在这个过程中大家能跟着我们一起学到东西。

I hope you learn with us along the way.

接下来要做什么呢？

What's next?

情绪分析。

Sentiment analysis.

我们看情绪的时候，具体看什么呢？

What are we checking when it comes to sentiment?

嗯，你可以看看大家都在关注的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数之类的数据。

Well, I mean, you can look at the crypto fear and greed index stuff that everybody is checking.

我们更倾向于观察交易者和投资者在期权持仓方面的动向。

We'd like to look at what traders and investors are doing when it comes options positioning.

我觉得这很能反映市场的情绪状态。

I think this is very telling of what the sentiment in the market is like.

这里我们可以看到未平仓合约量一直在上升，这意味着自7月以来，又有更多人开始加杠杆了。

And here we can look at open interest, which has been ticking higher, which means more people are taking on leverage again ever since July.

这个数字一直在走高。

This has been ticking high here.

蓝色线条一开始非常保守，但到了8月中旬，显然开始上升，因为大家觉得，好吧，是时候重新加杠杆了。

The blue line starting very conservatively, but then now mid August, obviously turning higher as people think, Okay, it's time to take up leverage again.

这里又经历了一波快速回调，这大概是好事。

We had a quick flush here again, which is probably good.

价格没有像火箭一样垂直暴涨，这是好事。

It's good that this is not like vertically shooting up.

未平仓合约应该始终保持谨慎上升的态势，这其实是个好迹象。

Open interest should always like very cautiously go up, which is rather a good sign.

这些头寸里大部分应该是多头仓位，因为我们也从图上能看出来。

Probably most of these things are long positions because we can also see it here.

比特币的资金费率从五月开始又变成正数了，这说明大家依然信任比特币作为资产。

The Bitcoin funding rate, it's been positive since May again, which goes to show people are still trusting in Bitcoin as the assets.

他们并没有失去信心。

They haven't lost trust.

我是说，在熊市最黑暗、最深的时候，资金费率是负的，因为那时候大家对比特币都失去了理智。

I mean, during the deep, deep, deep woods or just the deep times of the bear market, it was red because people were losing their heads over BTC.

他们的想法是，好吧，这玩意儿算是完了。

They were like, okay, this is done.

讽刺的是，这也正是比特币价格出现熊市反弹的时候。

Ironically, this is also when the Bitcoin price had its bear market counter rally.

但现在呢，我们又转绿了，这算是好事，而且现在还是绿的。

But then now again, we're turned green and which is kind of good and we're still green.

不过资金费率还没有高得离谱，这也说明市场情绪可能没有泡沫，但情况看起来还是不错的。

But funding rates are still not like astronomically high, which also goes to show maybe sentiment is there's no froth, but things are still looking good.

你也可以看看Coinbase溢价的情况。

The Coinbase premium stuff you can look at as well.

机构情绪现在怎么样呢？

How is institutional sentiment sort of going on?

我是说，整个夏天我们一直都很红。

I mean, we've been very red through all of summer.

四月份的时候，比特币也有过这波反弹，那时候我们有过一段不错的绿色时期。

We had great periods of green back in April when Bitcoin also had this counter rally.

现在呢，一些绿色又开始慢慢回来了。

And now some green is slowly coming back.

这也是个好迹象。

And this is also good.

我是说，Coinbase的折价幅度正在变得越来越小。

I mean, it's going it's very it's coming ever more shallow, the coinbase discount, so to say.

我们能看到溢价又出现了，而且势头在回升。

And we're seeing green like premium showing up again, picking up.

不过还没回到之前那种大幅溢价的水平，但在从熊市转向牛市的过渡期，看到一些正向信号还是必要的。

But it's not like back when when there was a lot of green, still sort of something you want to be seeing in a transition from a bear market to a bull market.

最后但同样重要的是，再次感谢我们朋友在TBL制作的优秀仪表盘，由Johan Bergmann打造，也就是比特币SKU。这是我们关注的指标之一，主要看交易员们的仓位是偏空还是偏多。

And last but not least, again, great dashboard by our friends over at TBL built by Johan Bergmann, Bitcoin SKU, stuff that we're looking at, just how negative or positive are our traders position.

从这里你可以看到，SKU已经再次大幅回升了。

And here you can see SKU has already moved up again quite significantly.

BTC的数值已经重新回到正值区间。

We're back above in positive territory with BTC.

我觉得MSTR的情况也差不多。

I think the same goes for MSTR.

我们切到这一页，先把比特币价格放一边。

When we go here, let's put away the Bitcoin price.

对，你看四个月和五个月的周期，我们已经回到正值区间了。

Yeah, you can see on a four months, five months time frame, we're back in positive territory.

MSTR更是高达7.8%，BTC是1.6%，这说明大家看空的意愿在减弱，这是个好消息。

MSTR even more so 7.8% and BTC 1.6%, which means, Okay, people are getting less bearish, which is a good sign to see.

如果我们回顾上一轮熊市，这就是我们要翻越的高墙。

And if we go back to the last bear market, this is all the wall you have to climb here.

大家看空的情绪越来越淡，直到最后转为看多。

People getting ever less bearish until at some point they turn bullish.

然后也许他们不会立刻又陷入那种极度的恐惧中。

And then maybe they're not pulling like turning bullish right away into astronomical fears again.

不过情绪回暖还是好事，这也说明市场情绪依然稳定且不错。

But it's still good that this is back which also goes to show sentiment is intact and is actually good.

所以这些也是我们想跟大家分享的内容。

So this is stuff we want to be showing you as well.

接下来看叙事分析。

Now the narrative analysis.

关于叙事方面有什么情况？

What's about narrative?

叙事和情绪指标非常接近。

Narrative and sentiment is quite close.

我觉得叙事这块更偏向定性分析。

Think narrative is very just qualitative.

现在大家是什么态度？

What is the current stance of people?

还有一个图表是Johan Bergmann做的，叫比特币状态图，他把BTC的情况分成了几个象限。

Another graph that Johan Bergmann has, the Bitcoin state graph, where he kind of clusters BTC into these quadrants.

那我们现在处在什么位置呢？

And then where are we at?

处于哪个阶段？

In what sort of stage?

他说我们刚刚走出怀疑阶段，这其实是件好事。

And he said, we're just coming out of disbelief, which is kind of a good thing.

我觉得大家一开始都不太相信这波上涨。

I think people were disbelieving this initial rally.

现在我们正进入希望阶段，这可能是好事，但也可能是再次出现回调、重新回到怀疑阶段的时候，目的是为了套住那些看涨的人，因为事情不应该这么简单。

And now we're just going over into hope territory, which is probably good and could be the time where we see another flush to go back in disbelief, to kind of trap the bulls now, which like it wouldn't be it shouldn't be that easy.

好了，我们又重新出发了。

Okay, we're going we're off to the races again.

这就是叙事分析的全部内容。

So this is it for the narrative analysis.

接下来我们看看最后一个部分，也就是我们也在做的需求分析。

Let's move over to the last box we have here, the demand analysis stuff we're also doing.

显然你可以看看MSTR，他们买了多少？

And obviously you can look at MSTR, how much are they buying?

我们知道他们已经重新开始购买了。

We know that they have already gone back to buying.

我觉得今天会再宣布买入4000个比特币。

I think 4,000 BTC will have another announcement today.

在瑞士这边大概12个左右。

Think 12 ish here in Switzerland.

我们还没看到迈克尔发任何帖子。

We have not yet to see Michael do any posts.

让我看看。

Let me see.

你可以在这里看到。

You can see it here.

另外，他知不知道这里全是AI生成的内容，说实话，尤其是我作为一个网球运动员。

Also, did he know it's all the AI slop here, which I have to be honest, especially me as a tennis player.

我喜欢那个，打败空头。

I like that one, beating the bears.

周末我又打了一场比赛，对手排名比我高四位，我赢了第一盘，然后输了。

I had another rally on the weekend against a player that was ranked four rankings better than me and I won the first set and then lost.

所以这个我喜欢。

And so this one I like.

走吧。

Let's go.

但现在回到正题。

But now back to the topic.

我在这里没看到什么动静。

I don't see anything happening here.

所以也许我们会看到他宣布另一次买入，但我们可以转向另一个有趣的模型，来自我们澳大利亚的朋友查尔斯·爱德华兹。

So maybe we'll see him announce another buy, but we can turn to another interesting model here by our friend over in Australia Charles Edwards.

我们之前请他上过节目。

We had him on the show here.

非常有意思。

Very interesting.

他追踪所有机构的真实机构买入情况，看这里的红线。

He tracks institutional buying across all institutions for real and see here the red line.

这是比特币的日度净流入数据。

This is the daily mind BTC.

然后你可以对比一下那些持有比特币的公司，看看他们是不是在买入，还有ETF的情况。

And then you can compare the treasury companies are they buying and the ETFs.

蓝色那条线呢，基本上就是所有买盘的总和。

And the blue line is then sort of the total of all.

你看，自从8月17号以来，数字又回到了正值区间，或者更准确地说，是重新超过了每日净流出的水平。

You see ever since August 17, we ticked up back into positive territory or rather I'd say back over the daily issued by minors.

然后通常情况就是这样，当它在这里变成绿色的时候。

And that always is then when it turns green here.

所以从机构净买入的角度来看，确实存在这种情况，相对于卖出或者矿工的生产活动来说，我得这么说。

So there is a sort of net institutional buying vis a vis the selling or the producing of miners also or the production of miners, I have to say.

所以，是的，这也是一个积极的信号。

And so, yeah, this is constructive as well.

我的意思是，我们希望看到这个指标上升，因为需求才是推动比特币价格的关键因素。

I mean, we want to see this tick higher because demand is what drives the Bitcoin price.

其实也很明显，只要这个指标往上走，价格就会跟着涨。

It's also sort of obvious and self evident that like, yeah, whenever this takes higher, the price takes higher.

所以这里面可能没太多新信息，但看到这些趋势能对上号，还是挺有意思的。

So maybe there's not that much information in there, but it's still kind of interesting to see that this all lines up.

对，还有一些比较明显的点大概就在这儿。

And yeah, some other obvious stuff is maybe here.

让我找找具体在哪儿。

Let me see where is it.

我想给大家看看这个。

I wanted to show you this.

这是追踪流入杠杆BTC产品的资金情况。

This is tracking BTC inflows into leveraged BTC products.

显然，当比特币上涨时，你也希望看到有人涌入杠杆产品。

Obviously, when Bitcoin is going higher, you also want to see like people going into leveraged products.

如果人们开始投资杠杆BTC产品，比如杠杆ETF，你就能感受到那种牛市情绪正在回归。

And if people are going to leveraged BTC products and like this is leveraged ETFs and you see sort of sentiment and then bull market sentiment is coming back.

所以这里你也能看到。

So you see it here as well.

而且这肯定得持续下去。

And this sort of certainly has to be sustained.

我的意思是，回到MSTR的需求分析。

I mean, demand analysis going back to MSTR.

有件事我想给你看。

One thing I wanted to show you is this.

这是追踪MSTR和BTC的对比，看是MSTR跑赢BTC，还是BTC跑赢MSTR，或者反过来。

This is tracking MSTR versus BTC and whether MSTR is outperforming BTC or BTC is outperforming MSTR or vice versa.

显然，在真正的牛市里，就像7月那样，还有2025年7月，我得说，以及2024年，绿色代表MSTR跑赢了BTC。

And obviously in a real bull market as we had in July still and then also in July 2025, I have to say, as well as in 2024, green means MSTR was outperforming BTC.

这里，当然，又在5月的反弹中，MSTR有过快速的、短暂的超额表现。

Here back obviously again in May in the counter rally, we had quick, quick outperformance by MSTR.

但从那以后，MSTR就再也没跑赢过BTC。

And ever since MSTR has not been outperforming BTC.

这也让很多人依然持怀疑态度。

And this is what makes a lot of people still skeptical.

他们的观点是，如果没有杠杆化的比特币股票（比如MSTR）来带动，比特币真的能进入牛市吗？

They argue, well, I mean, can Bitcoin really be in a bull market without MSTR being leveraged Bitcoin?

毕竟它现在并没有跑赢比特币。

Not not outperforming BTC.

所以这难道不意味着这是个假信号，比特币还没真正起飞吗？

So isn't that a sign that there's a false positive and, you know, Bitcoin is not off to the races yet?

对，迟早我们还是会看到它重新跑赢比特币的。

Well, yes, at some point we will want to see outperform Bitcoin again.

我觉得到时候自然会发生的。

I think it will also come in due time.

这次还没到那个阶段，不过早在七月我们就讨论过这个问题了，当时也做了个视频，也许我们可以把它贴在这里。

This time it's not yet the case, but we were already arguing back in July and in the video, maybe we can post it here.

如果你们之前看过，可能还有印象。

Maybe you guys remember if you have seen it.

这次不一定非得这样，因为我们之前拿它跟2021年和2022年从熊市里走出来的GBTC这个ETF产品做过对比。

This doesn't necessarily have to be the case this time around because we were looking at a comparison going back to GBTC, the ETF product way back here in 2022 and 2021 coming out of this bear market.

GBTC在最初的那几周甚至几个月里其实是跑输比特币的，之后才重新实现超越。

And GBTC was actually lagging behind in the first few weeks to months before then it started to outperform in Bitcoin again.

当然，它并不是一个带杠杆的产品，但它是当时大家非常期待的那种ETF产品。

Obviously, this was not really a leveraged product, but it was still this ETF product that everybody was hoping for.

大概就在那个时候，它赢得了诉讼并获得了批准，这才真正开始起飞。

And also somewhere around here, it got then approved that won its lawsuit and then it was really off to the races.

不过，确实一开始没跑在最前面。

But, yeah, it didn't start off first.

这次我觉得情况也差不多。

And this time around, I think it's similar.

在整个上一轮牛市里，MicroStrategy一直被视为一种加了杠杆的比特币产品。

MSTR through all of the last bull market, it was really touted to be this leveraged BTC product.

最近很多人对MicroStrategy批评得很厉害，说它让大家失望了，严重稀释了产品的价值，这在某种程度上确实不假。

We have a lot of people who have been very critical of cellular as of recent that they tell him, hey, you let us down and you really diluted the product, which is very much true to some extent.

所以这次也是，刚从我们经历的那个夏天走出来，当时大家普遍对 MSTR 持怀疑态度，比如担心它会不会破产之类的。

And so this time around, also coming out of this summer that we had where people were very skeptical of MSTR and like, is it going go bust and stuff?

我们可以清楚地看到，MSTR 已经不再是一个纯粹的杠杆工具了，因为它现在有了 SDR 带来的信用风险，结构也复杂多了，诸如此类的问题。

We can just see MSTR is not this pure play leverage instrument anymore because it has credit risk now with SDR, a lot more complexity and all these things.

这也是拖累 MSTR 表现的原因，所以我觉得它目前还在落后。

And this is also what's weighing on MSTR and that's why I think it's still lagging.

而且我们依然可以认为 BTC 表现不错，甚至可能已经进入了牛市阶段。

And we can still argue that BTC is doing well and might already be transitioning into the bull market.

所以这是我想给大家看的最后一个东西。

So this is just one last thing I wanted to show you.

我觉得目前就这些了。

I think this is pretty much it for now.

希望你们喜欢这个视频。

I hope you enjoyed the video.

好的。

Yeah.

如果喜欢的话，就给我们点个赞吧。

Give us the thumbs up or thumb up if you like.

老样子，欢迎在评论区留言。

Comment as always.

也感谢大家帮忙转发分享。

Appreciate sharing it around.

就像我们说的，我们相信比特币表现确实不错。

And as we said, we believe Bitcoin is really doing well.

它已经重新进入牛市区间，虽然这不意味着很快会涨到十万，但至少是积极的信号。

It's back going into bull market territory, which doesn't mean it will be at 100 ks anytime soon, but still it's constructive.

一切都在按我们预期的方向发展。

Everything looks as we want it to look.

所以，如果你还想重新入场，我觉得接下来的几周会提供这个机会。

And so, yeah, if you have to still get back into the market, I think the next few weeks will offer this opportunity.

在我工作的银行，我们也在做同样的事情。

We're also doing this at the bank that I work for.

最近几个月我们已经把大部分资金重新投入市场了，现在只打算把最后一点现金也投进去。

We have already applied a lot of the capital back into the markets over the recent months and now are looking to deploy just the last bit of cash.

另外我们还在关注一个很简单的东西，就是RSI，我们希望它能再降温一些。

And one thing we're looking at as well, just very easy here, RSI, you want to see this cool off a little further.

我们觉得短期内不太可能进入超卖区域，但也许可以在RSI和其他指标达到五十、四十左右的时候再进场。

We don't think we should get here to the oversold territory anytime soon, but maybe deploying then somewhere around the fifty, forty level here with RSI and the other metrics that we're looking at.

这可能是个不错的操作机会。

This could potentially be a good play.

好的，非常感谢大家。

So, yeah, thanks a lot, guys.

下次见。

See you around.

拜拜。

Bye.