股市历史上被高估。接下来会发生什么？

如果你回到2022年，再看向2023年初，那时候出现了收益率曲线倒挂。

If you go back to 2022 and you go back to heading into 2023, you had the inverted yield curve.

当时所有人都慌了，觉得这会是经济衰退的信号。

Everyone was freaking out that that was gonna be the signal for a recession.

那时候我们非常乐观，因为我们知道，关于收益率向市场传递什么信号的那套理论，尤其是从历史研究的角度来看，其实是有问题的。

At the time, we were very bullish knowing that the whole framework around what yields actually signal to the market is just is just a especially for kind of the historical study of how that would have been.

那是一种非常错位的可贷资金理论式的现实。

It it it is it is a very misplaced loanable funds type reality.

收益率之所以走高，是因为存在一个固定的资本池，每个人都想从这个固定资本池里分一杯羹。

The yields are pushing higher because there's this fixed pool of capital, and everyone's trying to, you know, get their share out of that fixed pool of capital.

但实际情况并不是这样。

It's not how it works.

货币是内生的。

Money is endogenous.

政府从外部增加金融资产。

Government adds financial assets exogenously.

所以，你知道，所有这些说法，放在1969年、1970年，也就是可兑换性结束之前，那都是很有力的论据，但今天不是这样了。

So, you know, all of that can just be like, those would have been great arguments in 1969 before convertibility, know, in 1970 before convertibility ended, but it's not today.

所以，是的，我们已经不生活在那个现实里了。

So, is, we don't live in that reality anymore.

那么，再想想利率上升以及这到底意味着什么，你知道，就像我说的，今年我们增加了1.7万亿美元的利息收入。

In in terms of then thinking about rates pushing higher and and what that actually means, you know, like I said, we're at 1,700,000,000,000 of of interest income being added this year.

从现在起，每次加息都会立刻增加250亿美元，然后在几年后，当债券到期时，这个数字会扩大到750亿美元。

Every rate hike from this point forward is an immediate 25,000,000,000 plus that will then expand into 75,000,000,000 after a couple after a couple years when when maturity happens.

从商业周期的角度来看，这真是巨额的收入增加。

You have just a massive add for income from the business cycle standpoint.

然后最后，你知道，我会怎么看我们现在所处的位置。

And then finally then, you know, how I would look at things in terms of where we're at.

我会关注信贷的走向。

I would pay attention to where credit is headed.

一旦你开始超过某个水平，就看看H.8银行信贷数据。

And once you start getting above about so just look at the h dot eight bank credit data.

我这儿说的是长期。

Once you get I'm talking long term here.

一旦银行信贷的年增长率超过10%到12%，你就开始进入那种需要信贷无限扩张的动态，也就是说需要无限加速，这显然是不可能的。

Once you get about above 10 to 12% acceleration, so year over year change in in bank credit, that's when you start just getting into dynamics where you need credit to expand indefinitely, which means you need acceleration indefinitely, which obviously you can't get.

你会碰到一个极限，当私人债务占GDP的比例足够大时，我们已经接近那个区间了，即使私人债务每年还在增长，但如果增速没有加快，你仔细算一下增长数学，第二年实际上从信贷周期中得不到更多增长，这通常又发生在H.8数据年增长率10%到12%左右的时候。

You hit a limit, and when private debt, to GDP is sufficient enough, large enough, which we're close to that that range, even even if private debt grows year over year, if it's not accelerating when you actually break down the growth math, you actually don't get more growth from the credit cycle the year after, and that usually happens again right around 10 to 12% in the year over year change on the h dot eight data.

我是怎么看这个的，你知道，泡沫在哪里，这就是明斯基周期的概念，泡沫可能正在那些NDFI贷款中形成。

How I would view this in terms of what's, you know, where kind of the bubble, and this is kind of the Minsky, cycle idea, the bubble itself probably forming in those NDFI loans.

这是资金流入那些涨得最快的资产的渠道。

This is the channel by which, you know, we're seeing a lot of the funding take place for the fastest rising assets.

然后你得关注财政。

And then you gotta pay attention to fiscal.

这个周期可以持续很长时间，资本破坏的深度将取决于财政状况。

The cycle itself can be supported for a very long time, and the the depth of capital destruction that happens will be dependent on where fiscal is at.

而目前，由于关税退款已经发生。

And as it stands right now, because of the the refunds from the the tariff refunds that have taken place.

我们已经看到了财政方面的良好提振，所以，你知道，我认为至少未来六个月，我们应该有一个稳定的宏观经济周期前景。

We've we've seen a nice boost in fiscal, and and so, you know, I I see at least the next six months, we should have a stable macroeconomic cycle outlook.

但也有一些短期因素，实际上当我们进入九月时，只是从季节性角度来看，我稍后可以解释这些，这些因素目前确实对资产构成一些风险，相对于我刚才描绘的相当乐观的画面。

But there there are short term factors where actually as we enter into September, just kinda seasonality wise, and I can explain those in a second, that that do pose some risks to to to assets right now from what I'm, you know, painting as a as a pretty cheery picture.

所以我先在这里停一下，听听大家的反馈，但我想最后再说一下我现在看到的一些事情。

So I I will I'll pause here, get some feedback, but I do wanna finish off with, know, a couple things that I'm seeing right now.

对，没错。

No, exactly.

这正是我想说的，因为确实有这些季节性效应，你知道，我想到美国即将到来的报税季，通常在我的领域里，这会导致流动性离开系统，你知道，抽走系统里的一些空气。

That's what I was gonna where I was gonna go because like there are these seasonality effects, you know, with I think about tax season that's coming in The United States, is usually associated with, even in my world with liquidity leaving the system, you know, and sucking some of the air out of the system.

所以但你再次告诉我，九月份的财政流入异常强劲。

So but you're telling me again, then the fiscal flows in September have been unusually strong.

我想回到新冠疫情时期，如果你比较一下的话。

I think going back to the COVID area, like if you compare it.

那么这如何与你刚才所说的相呼应，并可能缓解一些可能即将到来的问题呢？

So how does that kind of juxtapose with what you just said and potentially alleviate some of the problems that might be coming our way or?

对，关于短期框架，我喜欢用的方法是，你知道，我已经给你讲了长期的宏观布局。

Yeah, so the framework on the short run that I like to use, you know, so I I gave you kind of the longer term macro layout.

我们已经讨论过这些，以及为什么我现在整体看涨。

We've talked about that and and why I'm I'm just bullish overall right now.

长期来看，风险资产。

Risk assets longer term.

再说一次，你可以等到2027年春天再来找我。

And again, you know, come come talk to me in in spring twenty twenty seven.

到时候看看情况如何。

Let's see where we're at.

我们可以到时候再更新一下，看看进展。

We can we can refresh then and see where that's at.

但在短期内，我关注的是价格在哪里。

But in in in the short run, what I'm what I'm looking at is where is price at?

所以我主要看标普500指数。

So I'm thinking just s s and p 500.

现在的价格相对于财政流动的公平价值应该处在什么位置？

Where is price at relative to where where kind of the the fair value of fiscal flow should have it at.

这是第一件事。

That's the first thing.

对这个问题的回答是，我们现在明显高估了。

The the answer to that is we're just way overpriced right now.

嗯，从历史角度看是高估了。

Well, like, historically overpriced.

但这不一定是个问题，因为你得看另外两个因素。

But that's not necessarily a problem because you have to look at the other two components.

是否有更多资金流入私营部门？

Are there more flows coming into the private sector?

我们是否看到加速？

Are are we seeing an acceleration?

到目前为止，确切地说是到周三为止。

Up until now, literally up until Wednesday.

是的，确实如此。

Yes, we have.

周三就要来了。

It's coming up Wednesday.

然后第二点，另一个因素是，根据我们做的数学模型，政府每向私营部门投入一美元，大约需要一年时间，价格才能完全吸收这一美元。

And then two, the the other factor is it it it takes time for, you know, based on the mathematic models we've done, for every dollar that gets spent into the private sector from the government sector, takes about a year for that price to fully be a dollar fully be absorbed in price.

那么，是否还有未吸收的美元积压，仍在被计入价格？

And so, are there is there still a backlog of unabsorbed, dollars that are still being priced in?

我们是否还有来自那方面的动能？

Do we still have momentum from that side?

答案是肯定的。

The answer is yes.

所以我们仍然看到这个大规模加速正在发生，而这个吸收机制，你知道，还有美元留在管道里待消化。

So we still are seeing this massive acceleration that happened at this point and this absorption mechanism, you know, dollars left in the pipe to add.

除此之外，还有信贷周期，当财政支持减弱时，它也能提供支撑。

On top of that, there is the credit cycle as well that can add support when when fiscal is is is waning.

但那些都被高估了。

But all of those were overpriced.

另外两件事我们得检查的是，管道里还剩多少燃料，然后里面的量会不会开始减速？

The other two things we gotta check on is how much fuel is left in the in the in the line, and then is the amount that's in there gonna start to decelerate?

两个问题的答案都是肯定的。

The answer is yes on both fronts.

所以我们会看到，九月份会有一次大的税收抽水，这就是为什么人们会谈论季节性。

So we're gonna get yes, on the big tax drain that's gonna take place in September, which is why, you know, people talk about seasonality.

嗯，那就是季节性。

Well, that that is seasonality.

这就是为什么每年他们都说，五月卖出然后离开，因为那是在四月的税收压力之后，然后你最终会看到历史上夏天出现的横盘市场。

That that is why every year they say, you know, sell in May and go away because that follows the April tax strain that happens, and then you end up getting this sideways market that plays out in the summer historically.

然后历史上市场表现最差的时期是九月底到十月初。

And then the other the worst performing part of the market historically is at the end of September heading into October.

为什么？

Why?

因为这时候是财政年度结束，而且这个时间段会有税务流失。

Because you get the fiscal end of year that takes place, and you get the tax drains that take place at this time frame.

所以你有两个潜在的破裂点。

And so you're getting two pieces kind of breakage that are potential.

你只需要问自己一个问题：当前的市场环境有多脆弱？

And the question you just gotta ask yourself, well, how brittle is the current market landscape?

是像2008年那样脆弱吗？

Well, is it 2008 brittle?

不是。

No.

2008年，2008年10月，一切都崩溃了。

2008, October 2008, everything collapses.

为什么？

Why?

因为2008年财政年度结束时的税务流失，砰的一声。

Because you get the fiscal year end tax drain, 2008, bam.

这个市场本来就容易崩。

It is a market ready to break anyway.

我们现在到了那个地步吗？

Are we there?

没有。

No.

但是我们现在是不是严重高估了？

But are we vastly overpriced?

会不会出现回调，回到平均水平？

Could we get a reset back down to the mean?

我觉得从现在到十月份，市场暂停一下是合理的。

I think that makes sense from now until October to get a pause.

也许就是横盘。

Maybe it's sideways.

也许我们就在横盘整理。

Maybe we just consolidate sideways.

现在是不是我该大举押注未来几个月还会再涨10%的时候？

Is this a time where I'm gonna be betting big that we're gonna get another 10% run up in the coming months?

不是。

No.

那我是不是在押注市场必须得跌15%？

Am I betting that we have to have a 15% collapse?

也不是。

No.

如果非要二选一的话，我觉得现在可能更倾向于下跌，稍微保守一点比较好。

If I had to choose one or the other, I would say probably the collapse at this point in time probably be a little bit more risk averse here.

留点现金。

Raise some cash.

我的意思是，现在利率这么高，持有现金其实挺划算的。

I mean, you're getting a great deal on cash right now with where rates are at.

你知道，像这样的东西你拿个一两周就行了。

You know, you'd hold something like that for for a couple weeks.

那么，你会看到这种情况如何发展？

Well, what will you see this play out?

我觉得，这是更明智的做法。

I mean, I I I think that is the the smarter on the smarter play