九月徒步旅行？特朗普、贝森特和沃什有更宏大的计划

嘿，欢迎回到《少噪音，多信号》。

Hey, welcome back to Less Noise, More Signal.

我觉得是时候在周末前再给你发一个视频了，这个周末我可能会非常忙。

Thought it's time to hit you with another video right before the weekend, a weekend which is probably going to be very busy for me.

我不知道你怎么样，但对我来说，最近周末就是烤酸面包，然后打很多网球，当然还有疯狂用AI。

I don't know about you, but, yeah, weekends for me are all about for me, at least, are all about, baking sourdough bread as of recently and then also playing a lot of tennis, but then also obviously token maxing.

试各种AI的东西，我是说，我一直有错失恐惧症，就是觉得我得更频繁地用这些。

Trying out all the AI stuff, I mean, get I've been getting FOMO and just like, kinda I need to use this more often.

我不知道你怎么样，尤其是现在ChatGPT刚发布了Astra。

I don't know about you, especially now that Astra Astra has just been announced by ChatGTP.

不知道你看到没有。

I don't know if you have seen it.

它很快就会对ChatGPT的专业版和商业版用户开放。

It will become available soon for pro and business, users of ChatGTP.

所以我非常期待这个。

So I'm very much looking forward to this one.

就像我在这里给你看的，不知道你有没有见过这个。

As I can show you here, I don't know if you have seen this.

这是Perplexity发的一个帖子。

This is a post by Perplexity.

他们用某个研究能力测试WAINDR评估了GPT-6 Astra，据说排名挺高的，比Claude的Fable 5还要好。

They evaluated GPT-six Astra on some research proficiency test, WAINDR, and it's supposedly ranking quite high, better than Fable five by Claude.

Anthropic那边的人可不这么认为。

Anthropic, others are not agreeing.

Artificial analysis这里说他们还是落后于Anthropic和Claude Fable。不过我们等着瞧吧。

Artificial analysis here says they're still lagging behind Anthropic and Claude Fable, But we'll see.

我自己会去试试，到时候大概能回来汇报一下。

I mean, I will try it out myself and then at some point I can probably report back.

不过这就是我周末在干的事。

But this is what I am doing on weekends.

工作日当然也会用，但到了周末就得疯狂刷token了。

Obviously during the week I use it as well, but then on weekends I have to do token maxing.

不知道你有没有看过我最近采访的那个中国女孩，叫季黄，我记得是。

I don't know if you have seen my recent interview with the Chinese girl, Ji Huang, I think.

我甚至都不太记得她的名字，太难记了，但她真的很棒。

I don't even remember her name hard, but she was great.

你一定要听听这个。

You have to listen to this.

我不记得她的名字，不是因为不记得她，而是因为名字太难念了。

And I don't remember her name because, I don't remember her, but just because the name is very hard.

毕竟是中文名字嘛。

It's a Chinese one after all.

对，去看看吧。

But yeah, go check it out.

我会把链接放在简介里。

I'll link it in the description.

是的。

Yes.

不过今天这期视频，我准备了不少幻灯片内容，想给大家展示一下。

But for today's video, I have quite a packed slide deck and stuff that I want to show to you.

这可能是比较长的一期视频，但我们会回答我手头的一些问题。

It's probably going to be one of the longer videos, but we're going to answer some of the questions I have here with me.

比特币熊市结束了吗？

Is the Bitcoin bear market over?

这是大家都在思考的问题。

That's a question everybody is pondering over.

美联储九月会加息吗？

Is the Fed going to hike rates in September?

还有，最近这轮货币贬值交易，是最后一局还是能持续下去？

And is the latest or last inning of the debasement trade, is it one with legs?

这也是我们想在这里回答的问题。

That's also something we want to answer here.

所以，在杰克逊霍尔会议之后，加上最近美联储官员的表态，加息概率一度飙升到60%，现在又稍微回落了一些。

And so, I mean, after Jackson Hole meeting and all the recent Fed response or representatives that were speaking, Fed hiking odds have spiked up and they've been at 60 and now they've come slightly down.

现在就是抛硬币，五五开，美联储九月份到底加不加息。

It's a coin toss right now, fiftyfifty, whether the Fed will be hiking rates in September.

我是说，沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上就为这一切定下了基调。

I mean, Warsh set the scene for it all back in his Jackson Hole meeting.

而且他当时非常鹰派。

And I mean, he was very hawkish.

他发表了一番鹰派言论，试图真的让市场替他完成紧缩，这在某种程度上可能又奏效了，直到几天后沃勒讲话。

He had this hawk talk on, tried to really get the markets to do the tightening for him, which to some extent probably worked out again until maybe Waller spoke a few days later.

这个我们待会儿也会讲到。

We'll cover this as well in a sec.

但这大概就是他主要的目标。

But then, that's probably his main sort of goal here.

而在“少噪音，多信号”看来，我们认为沃什这种鹰派言论真的只是说说而已，他不会付诸行动，我们猜。

And at less noise, more signal, we think this hawkish rhetoric by Warsh is really just talk that he's not going to walk, we guess.

他其实是想控制住长端收益率。

He's really trying to keep the long end under control.

就像我们之前说的，让市场替他完成一部分紧缩工作，这样美联储在九月份可能根本不需要加息。

And as we already said, let markets do some of the tightening for him, reducing the need for the Fed to hike at all in September.

这就是我们真正的看法。

That's really what we believe.

那我们怎么知道他不是在虚张声势呢？

And how do we know he's not bluffing?

杰克逊霍尔演讲中有一句话透露了一些线索。

We had one little sentence that sprung out of the Jackson Hole speech that gave us some clues.

你可以在这张幻灯片上看到。

And you can see it here on the slide.

他说：“我希望我们对经济的理解能精确到，可以提供一个机械且经过验证的答案，让像泰勒规则这样简单的函数能被严格依赖。”

He said, I wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical tried and true answer that some simple function like a Taylor Rule could be rigorously relied upon.

这句话很有深意，因为他实际上是在贬低泰勒规则，抱歉我说了粗话。

And so that was quite telling because what he was doing here, he was kind of shitting, sorry for my language, on the Taylor Rule.

为什么？

Why?

因为泰勒规则目前建议，或者说美联储实际上应该加息大约100个基点。

Because the Taylor Rule is currently suggesting that we should or the Fed should actually raise rates by about 100 basis points.

所以通过否定这个框架，他试图让那些主张更紧缩政策、并引用泰勒规则来支持自己观点的批评者们闭嘴。

And so by discrediting that framework, he kind of tried to shut up all the critics who are arguing for tighter policy and turn to this sort of Taylor Rule to argue this.

我觉得这就是沃什在某种程度上暴露了他的底牌。

And so that's I think where Warsh revealed some of it or his hand, so to say.

而且说到底，沃什也得看市场的脸色。

And I mean, Warsh in the end, he's also beholden to the markets.

市场是怎么说的呢？

What are the markets saying?

我们之前说过，市场对于是否需要加息这件事有点拿不定主意。

We already said they're sort of indecisive about whether markets need a rate hike or not.

有些人显然在担心潜在的风险。

Some people are obviously pointing to potential wrench.

由于特朗普和伊朗之间的紧张关系再度升级，油价又开始上涨了。

Oil has been moving higher again following renewed tensions between Trump and Iran.

我的意思是，重点不是油价又回到了每桶90美元。

And I mean, point is not that oil is back at $90 per barrel.

通胀担忧上升并不是因为这个。

That's not why inflation concerns are rising.

更多是像那些敏锐的观察者说的，油价相对于2025年初和整个2025年一直处于高位，持续了很长时间，这让人担心。你看这张幻灯片，2025年我们油价还在60多美元的低位。

It's more that like astute observers are saying, well, it's worrying that prices have remained elevated relative to the beginning and all of 2025 for a prolonged period that you can see here on the slide and 2025, we were quite low in the 60 area.

现在显然飙升了，跟2025年比，我们仍然处于高位。

And now we spiked up obviously, and we're still, elevated, when we compare to 2025.

所以他们就说，因为这种高位，油价向核心通胀传导的风险相当高。

And that's why they're arguing because of this elevated state, the risk of a spillover effect of like oil into core inflation is quite high.

这才是他们真正担心的。

And that's really what they're fearing.

而且这对美联储来说会是个问题。

And would be a problem for the Fed.

如果通胀出现在核心价格里，那即使按他们自己的标准，他们也得上调利率。

If inflation were to show up in core prices, they would have to raise rates even by their own standards.

不过我觉得这也有点被夸大了。

Now, I think this is also somewhat overblown.

我们在“少噪音，多信号”这个节目里，并不认为这些油价会传导到核心商品上。

We at Less Noise, More Signal don't really think that these oil prices will feed into core goods.

我们也没有水晶球，但这只是我们的直觉。

I mean, we don't have a crystal ball, but it's just sort of our intuition.

而且到目前为止，它们也没有传导过去。

And they haven't had so far.

所以问题就是，为什么它们应该传导过去呢？

And so the question is, why should they?

当然，油价确实处于高位，但还有其他因素在起作用。

And obviously it's true, they are elevated, but then there's other things going on.

你得看核心通胀指标里的所有组成部分，其他部分可能真的会显示出进一步的通货紧缩。

You have to look at the entire component set of the core inflation metric and others in there could really be showing further disinflation.

所以这一切可能会相互抵消。

And that's why it could all be compensated.

这也是克里斯托弗·沃勒州长最近在发表经济展望演讲时所说的，或者说他暗示的意思。

And that's also what Governor Christopher Waller just recently said or was kind of insinuating when he was giving his economic outlook speech.

他承认，与2026年初相比，能源价格的上涨是实实在在的，它就在那里，不能靠说辞就把它抹掉。

And he acknowledged that the increase in energy prices relative to the start of 2026 is tangible and it's here and it can't be talked away.

但他的讲话听起来并不像是在为加息做准备。

But still his message did not really sound like one that is preparing for a rate hike.

对，因为他表示，目前看不到能源价格真正传导到核心通胀的迹象。

Yeah, just because he says it's nowhere to be seen that this is actually feeding through into core.

而且到目前为止也确实没有。

And so far it hasn't.

说到底，现在真正的问题是：接下来会发生什么？

And I mean, in the end now the question is really, Okay, what's going to happen?

有一个指标可以参考。

Now, is something you can look at.

克利夫兰联储的通胀预测也印证了这一点。

Cleveland Fed inflation now cast is telling that story as well.

所以即使整体CPI可能会有点热，克利夫兰联储的预测模型仍然预计核心CPI和PCE会低于预期或符合预期，不会偏离现有的通缩路径。

So even though there might be some hot inflation with headline CPI coming through, now cast of the Cleveland Fed is still expecting core CPI as well as PCE to come in lower or just within expectations and not really leave this sort of disinflationary path it's already on.

所以这确实是我们需要关注的事情。

And so this is certainly something we want to look at.

沃勒给了我们另一个线索，也让我们感觉到他其实不太愿意加息。

Waller gave us another clue, kind of gave us some ideas that he's also not really fond of raising rates.

他在接受路透社采访时说，不想给出具体数字，但如果三个月的数据达到2.8，那也没问题。

He actually said in a Reuters interview, don't want to put a number on it, but if the three month number gets to 2.8, that's fine.

他显然说的是PCE。

And he was obviously talking about PCE.

所以他给了我们一个大概的计划，他对每月环比增长约0.3%的数据感到满意。

And so he was giving us sort of this game plan that he's comfortable with a reading of roughly 0.3 month over month increase.

再回到核心PCE，目前预计的涨幅是多少？

Again, if we go back to the core PCE, which is coming in, what is the expected sort of rise here?

预期是0.27，这会低于每月环比0.3%的预期。

It's expected 0.27, which would be below the 0.3 month over month expectation.

所以我觉得沃勒和沃什一样，是在给我们铺路，把一切都安排妥当。

And so I think Waller, similar to Warsh, is trying to set us up here and just put everything in place.

一旦这些数据出来，一切都会顺理成章地到位，他们就能轻松过关，不用加息了。

Once these data points will come in, everything will just neatly fall in place and they will have a clean sheet and they will not have to raise rates.

所以接下来会很有意思。

And so it's gonna be interesting.

当然，官方的核心PCE数据要等到美联储会议结束后才会公布。

Obviously, official core PCE is coming in right only after the Fed meeting has already taken place.

你可以看到，美联储的决策是在9月16日，而官方的8月PCE数据要两周后才出来。

You can see it here, the Fed decision is gonna be on September 16 and the official August PCE is only gonna be coming in two weeks later.

不过我们会在9月10日先看PPI，也就是生产者价格指数。

But we will be looking at PPE already, producer price index, September 10.

这会给我们一些线索，如果PPI比预期高或者高很多，那么PCE也可能跟着走高。

This will give us some clues if that should come in hotter than or a lot hotter than expected then PCE could also be hotter.

但没错，我们仍然认为这种情况不会发生，所以接下来的线索肯定是在9月10日和11日。

But yeah, we remain of the belief that this is not going to happen and so the next clues we will get is certainly September tenth and eleventh.

而且从比特币和其他风险资产的表现来看，我们认为这也某种程度上表明市场，尤其是这些投资者，相信通胀不会再次抬头。

And the way BTC and other risk assets are performing, this is also somewhat of an indication we believe that market the market, especially these investors are of the belief that, again, inflation is not coming through.

我们稍后会在那个视频里看看通胀互换。

We'll be looking at inflation swaps later in that video.

不过现在让我们进入下一个话题。

But let's move on now to the next topic.

我的意思是，通胀担忧真的很让人反感。

I mean, it is really disgusting inflation fears.

市场担心利率可能会因为通胀上升而被上调。

Markets are worried about interest rates that they could be hiked because of inflation going up.

目前市场中另一个担忧或顾虑是长期收益率已经大幅上升。

The other worry or the other concern that is in markets currently is long term yields that have been rising quite significantly.

所以很多人会说，嘿，长期收益率不断攀升，这对股票和风险资产怎么能持续呢？

And so a lot of people are like, hey, with long term yields rising ever more, how can this be sustainable for equities and risk assets?

可能不行，对吧？

Probably can't, right?

所以他们显然有理由担心。

And so they're obviously rightly worried.

在讨论长期收益率上升的原因之前，

Now we before we want to talk about the reasons for these long term yields rising.

我们想先梳理一下大局，整体规划和战略，因为所有事情都是相互关联的。

We want to lay out the grand scheme here, the grand plan, the grand strategy, I think because everything is connected.

短期利率、长期利率、国债回购、地下室交易，还有美元，所有这些。

Short term rates, long term rates, Treasury buybacks, the basement trade, everything, the dollar.

如果我们放大来看，理解了当前正在发生的事情，我们就会受到这个大局的启发。

And so if zoom in and we have this understanding of what's happening right now, we are informed by this.

正因如此，我们显然会受到这个计划的影响，因为我们觉得自己理解了大局或大战略。

And then that's why we're obviously biased by this plan given that we feel like we understand the grand scheme or the grand strategy.

这就是为什么我们认为，所有这些关键人物——沃什、沃勒、贝森特、特朗普——都在试图引导叙事，把一切安排到位，以便他们的想法显得合理。

That's why we then think, all these moving pieces, Warsh, Waller, Bessent, Trump, they're all trying to talk to narrative and put things into place so they're justified in their thinking.

那么他们为什么要这样做呢？

And so why are they doing this?

正如我们之前所说的，我们认为沃什会尽可能长时间地阻止短期利率上升，即使出现某种经济通胀的迹象，他也会总是试图找到不这么做的理由。

As we have argued before, we think Warsh will try to prevent short term interest rates from rising as long as possible, Even if some sort of economy inflation is showing up, you will always try to find reasons not to do so.

如果条件允许，他甚至可能更倾向于降息。

And if conditions allow it, you might even prefer to cut interest rates.

为什么会这样呢？

And why is this the case?

我们认为沃什很可能与特朗普政府的一个更广泛的目标保持一致，如果不是主要目标的话，我们认为这个目标就是削弱美元，作为其对华经济回应的一部分，有点像对中国的反击。

We believe Warsh is likely aligned with one of the Trump administration's broader objectives, if not the main objective, which we believe is weakening the dollar as part of its economic response to China, sort of a counter attack to China.

我们会在以后的视频中讨论这个，但布雷特·泽泽和其他人显然已经讨论了很多，人们一直在指出，中国正在系统性地贬值其货币，从而试图提振其出口。

We'll talk on this in a later video, but it's obviously being talked about a lot by Brett Zetzer and other people, and people have been pointing out that China is systematically devaluing its currency, thereby trying to boost its exports.

在过去几个月里，他们的出口疯狂增长，从而真的试图在竞争上超越欧洲和美国的伟大产业。

They have gone up crazily in the last couple of months and thereby really trying to outcompete great industries in Europe and The US.

这不再关乎劣质产品了。

And it's not about like rubbish products anymore.

这也关乎前沿的人工智能实验室，或者能源和电池、汽车，所有这些在我们日常生活中非常奢侈且重要的东西。

It's also about frontier AI labs or energy and batteries, cars, all these very like luxury and really important stuff in our daily lives.

所以这就是为什么这很重要。

And that's why it's important.

我们在和伊莎贝尔·卡明斯卡的视频里聊过这个。

And we talked about this in our video with Isabel Kaminska.

我们也和马文·巴斯讨论过。

We talked about it with Marvin Barth.

所以去听听那些视频吧，它们会给你拼图碎片，让你真正理解这件事。

So go listen to this videos that will give you the puzzle pieces to need to really understand this.

就像我说的，我们还会专门做一期视频来深入讲这个话题。

And as said, there will be another video that we'll do exclusively on this topic as well.

所以我觉得这真的是这里的策略——让美元贬值，来对冲人民币正在进行的贬值。

And so I think that's really the strategy here, devaluing the dollar to kind of counteract the devaluation of the Chinese yuan that's going on.

所以你得把这三驾马车看作是在推行这个策略的代表，特朗普、沃什和贝森特。

And so you have to think of the strategy of the three horsemen as you can see that are trying to put this strategy into practice here, Trump, Warsh and Bessent.

我们就把他们当作这个策略的代表。

We have these as the representatives of that.

任何随之而来的通胀影响、潜在的资产泡沫，以及由此产生的扭曲，我认为在这个框架下都是必要的，也是追求这个更广泛目标所必须付出的代价。

And any sort of inflationary consequences and potential asset bubbles and just distortions that are coming along with this or may follow from this, I think they are necessary in that framework and do as a necessary price to pay in pursuit of this broader objective.

所以理解这一点非常重要。

And so that's very important to understand.

现在，明白了这一点，我们想转向收益率这个话题。

Now, yeah, with that in mind, we want to turn to this yield story.

为什么长期收益率会上升呢？

Why are long end yields rising at all?

我是说，市场上有各种理论，但事实是，三骑士中的贝森特可能面临最艰巨的任务。

I mean, there's a bunch of theories out there and is, the matter of the fact is that because of this Bessent of the three horsemen probably has it the hardest, has the hardest job.

这也是为什么他声音最大，努力确保自己的观点和策略被理解，并希望市场与他保持一致，尽管像特鲁金·米勒这样的人至少在公开场合表示不同意，也许私下里不是这样，我们不得而知。

And that's why he's also the most vocal and really trying to make sure he gets his story and his sort of also strategy across and wants to get the market in line with him, even though people like Trucking Miller and others are disagreeing at least upfront, maybe not behind the scenes, we don't know.

但确实，这就是关键所在。

But yeah, that's really the thing.

所以，他控制长期收益率的目标将是一项艰巨的任务，因为我们这么认为，贝森特自己也清楚这一点。

So his goal of keeping long and under control will be this mammoth task going forward because we think and Bessent knows this as well.

他在其他视频里也承认过，目前有好几个结构性因素在推高长期收益率。

He has acknowledged it in other videos that there are several structural forces that are currently at play pushing long term yields higher.

其中有些我们想在这里单独拎出来说说。

And some of them we want to carve out here.

很明显，油价上涨加剧了对通胀上升的担忧。

Obviously it's the elevated oil prices feeding fears of higher inflation.

这个我们之前聊过。

We talked about this before.

其实是从战争开始的，美国打击伊朗。

It really started with the war, US tax Iran.

我们看这张图，有人指出这就是收益率走高的原因。

We see here this chart, somebody was pointing out that this is the explanation for why yields are ticking higher.

这是唯一的原因。

It's the sole explanation.

我觉得可能只是部分原因，但跟往常一样，现实生活里的事情更复杂，不是非黑即白的。

I mean, it's probably part of it, but as always, things in the real life, it's more complicated and not as black and white.

所以我们认为还有其他原因。

And so we think there's other reasons.

我的意思是，有些人指出的另一个原因其实是期限溢价在上升。

And I mean, another reason that some people are pointing to is really a rising term premium.

这是什么意思呢？

What does this mean?

期限溢价就是说债券投资者或者债券持有者，可以说，真的想要更高的收益率，并且预期持有长期债务会获得更高的收益率。

Like term premium is just bond investors or bond holders, so to say, really wanting higher yields and expecting higher yields to hold longer term debt.

这可能有各种原因。

And that can have various reasons.

其中一个原因可能只是美联储目前没有真正提高短期利率，而是保持平稳。

One of them might just be because the Fed is currently not really raising rates at short and keeping it flat.

因此，至少作为补偿，他们预期长期端的收益率会更高。

And that's why at least they in compensation expect higher yields at the long end of the curve.

这是原因之一，即对未来利率路径的不确定性仍然存在，尤其是在沃什领导下的美联储现在改变方向，不再真正进行前瞻性指引的情况下，这种不确定性也感觉有些摇摆不定。

That's one of the reasons it's remaining uncertainty about future path of interest rates, something which is also feel kind of in flux, especially with the Federal Reserve under Warsh now changing course and not really doing forward guidance anymore.

所以不确定性看起来确实增加了。

And that's why uncertainty seemingly has increased.

还有对未来长期债券发行增加的担忧，这些发行是为了通过某种债务货币化来弥补赤字，这也是原因之一。

It's also concerns over future increases in long term bond issuance to fund the deficit through sort of debt monetization and that's one of the reasons.

如果你想更详细地了解这一点，我们想让你看看这位先生写的这篇文章。

I mean, if you want to understand this in more detail, we want to point you to this article here by this gentleman here.

很棒的人，他最近那篇《风险的价格》文章。

Great guy, The Price of Risk, this recent article he had.

让我想想，我们来谈谈杰克逊霍尔前夕的债券收益率。

Let me see, let's talk about bond yields on the eve of Jackson Hole.

这篇文章是几天前发布的，但真的很好。

So it's been published a few days ago, but really great.

你可以再读一遍。

You can reread it.

在文章结尾，他确实在强调，债券持有者要求高得多的利率。

I mean, here at the end, he's really arguing, but it's bondholders demand a much higher interest rate.

更高的利息支付增加了赤字，形成了赤字不断扩大的恶性循环。

The higher interest rate payments increase the deficit and creates a vicious cycle of higher deficits.

债券持有人要求更高的收益率，赤字就更大，故事就这样一直延续下去。

A bondholders requiring higher yields, a higher deficit and on goes the story.

很多比特币圈子里的人都在说，这其实就是唯一的故事——收益率上升是因为政府再也还不起债了。

I mean, lot of Bitcoin are talking about that this is really the sole story here that yields are rising because government can't afford to pay its debt anymore.

我们并不太相信那种偏向现代货币理论的说法。

We don't really believe that sort of leaning to the MMT.

你会听到说政府有自己的货币，总能名义上为债务融资。

You hear that government has its own currency and they can always nominally finance their debt.

显然，这是以牺牲储户的利益为代价的，但他们就是这么做的。

Obviously it's at the cost or at the detriment to the detrimental of the saver, but that's how they're doing it.

对，但话说回来，这确实是个问题。

Yeah, but then again, it is a problem.

这张很棒的图表正好说明了这一点。

This great chart shows this here.

美

U.

国

S.

净利息支付占GDP的比重，又在往上走了。

Net interest payment as a percentage of GDP, I mean, it's ticking higher again.

我们又回到了上世纪八九十年代的水平。

And we're back to where we were in the 1980s or 1990s.

这可不是什么好事。

And this is not great.

而且短期内看不到任何能让这个数字降下来的解决办法。

And there's no sort of solution in sight that this could get lower anytime soon.

所以我觉得，债券持有人确实在担心这个，而这种不确定性正在推高长期收益率。

And so that's why I think it's true that bondholders are sort of worried about this and that this uncertainty is feeding long end yields.

他说的也是这个意思。

And so that's what he's saying as well.

在我看来，最近期限溢价的上升，最好的解释是对未来发行量的担忧，以及对波动性传染和由此形成的这种反馈循环的担忧。

In my opinion, the recent rise in the term premium is best explained by fears of future issuance and a fear of contagious volatility and this sort of feedback loop that is created here.

所以这就是他主张的观点。

And so that's what he's arguing.

然后，是的，我们还可以提到另一个我认为非常重要的话题，它正在上升，或者说导致了这些收益率的上升。

And then, yeah, we can also point to another topic I think which is very important and rising or is responsible for these yields rising.

那就是人工智能投资周期，它持续支持着更强劲的经济增长。

It's the AI investment cycle which continues to support stronger economic growth.

这里的论点实际上是，人工智能投资周期正在创造所有这些经济增长。

And here the argument is really that it's like AI investment cycle is creating all that economic growth.

这就是为什么收益率必须调整，显然。

And that's why the yield has to adjust, obviously.

是的，确实如此。

And yeah, it is true.

我们最近看到，GDP相当高。

We've seen it recently that GDP is quite high.

如果我们看美联储，亚特兰大联储的GDP预测，本季度的预期是……

If we go to the Fed, Atlanta Fed GDP now, can see for this quarter is expected.

预计GDP增长4.7%。

The estimate is 4.7% GDP growth.

这简直太惊人了。

This is just astonishing.

这跟持续进行的人工智能投资周期有关。

It's got to do with that in AI investment cycle, which continues.

那么显然，情况就是这样。

Then obviously, yeah, the case is this.

如果所有这些都需要资金支持，而且都是通过债务来融资的，我们一会儿会谈到这一点，那么这就会跟国债收益率形成竞争。

If all of this has to funded and it's all funded through debt and we'll get to this in a minute, then this is sort of competing with Treasury yields.

供应越多，债券价格就越低，所以收益率就越高。

The more supply is coming online, lower prices with the bonds, and that's why yields are going higher.

这就是我们在这里看到的实际情况。

And so this is really what we can see here.

公司债券的发行量在整个2026年一直都很高，稍微高了一点。

Corporate bond issuance, it's been elevated all throughout 2026, a little bit higher.

我们这里没有2025年全年的数据，但这足以说明发行量确实更高了。

We don't have all of 2025 here, but it goes to show that it is higher.

而且，在7月稍微低了一些之后，8月又回升了。

Also, it ticked up in August again after being a little lower in July.

可能是夏季的影响吧。

Summer wipes probably.

但确实，你能明显看到这种情况真的在发生。

But yeah, you can really see that this is really happening here.

这就是为什么看到这一点如此重要。

And then that's why this is so important to see.

所以，是的，你能看到我们刚才指出的所有这些原因。

And so, yeah, you can see all of these reasons that we just pointed out here.

我们又列了一遍。

We listed them again.

我觉得这些都是长期收益率上升的各种原因。

These are all the different reasons, I think, for why long end yields are rising.

那我们现在觉得哪个是最重要的，哪个才是真正推动这一切的？

Now, what do we think which is the most important one, which is really the one driving everything?

我是说，这些可能都有道理。

I mean, there's probably truth to all of it.

在我们看来，我觉得真正的原因是期限溢价上升，因为大家担心未来的发行量。

In our view, I think it is really the rising term premium because of future issuance concerns.

但这并不意味着美国马上就会违约。

But this doesn't mean that there's like a default just around the corner with The US.

这只是债券持有人自然会担心的事情。

It's just a natural thing that bondholders are kind of worried about this.

然后我觉得还有AI投资周期，这真的是推动收益率上涨的因素。

And then I think it's also the AI investment cycle, which is really the one driving yields here.

所以大概就是这两个。

So these are sort of two.

一个确实是债务和财政方面的担忧，另一个则是推动收益率上升的增长因素。

The one is really like, okay, debt fiscal sort of concerns and the other one is growth that is feeding these yields.

而且更多的增长最终对股市是有利的。

And more growth is actually in the end good for equities.

所以这就是为什么讨论不同风险资产正在发生什么或前景如何会很有趣。

And so that's why it's interesting to say what's happening or what is the outlook here for different risk assets.

我们在这里也谈到了这一点。

We also talked about this here.

我的意思是，快速回到那个问题，那么，收益率上升，这对风险资产来说不是问题吗？

I mean, because going quickly back to the question, then be okay, higher yields, isn't that a problem for risk assets?

如果收益率继续攀升，它们不应该被压垮吗？

Shouldn't they get crushed if they just keep on marching higher?

正如你从我们展示的内容中已经可以推断出的，这确实取决于什么是收益率最重要的边际驱动因素。

And as you can already infer from what we're showing here, it really depends on what is the most important marginal driver of yields.

如果是油价上涨和通胀上升，那显然对股市不利，因为如果通胀过高，利率最终不得不被上调。

If it's elevated oil prices and inflation, this would not be good for equities, obviously, because if there's too much inflation at some point, interest rates would have to be risen and would have to be raised, would have to say.

那样的话，就会对股票和其他风险资产造成压力。

And then that would weigh on equities and other risk assets.

但再说回来，如果这真的是因为人工智能投资交易带来的支撑，那么你可以说，这正是股票需要的，尤其是现在标普500里很多都是人工智能交易和人工智能相关的投资。

But again, if it's really the support from the AI investment trade, then you can say, well, that's exactly what equities need, especially nowadays that much of the S and P 500 is dominated by AI trade investments and AI plays.

所以那根本不是什么问题。

And so that would not be really a wrench at all.

实际上反而会是个推动力。

It would actually be a boost.

所以这真的取决于你相信什么。

And so it really depends what you believe.

我们之前也说过这一点。

Again, we said it here.

股票的风险回报比已经有所恶化了。

The risk reward for equities has somewhat deteriorated.

你可以在这里看到。

You can see it here.

我觉得蓝线是标普500。

I think the blue line is the S and P 500.

它一直有点波动，来回下跌，这可能说明这些较高的收益率现在正在对股市造成压力。

It has been kind of wobbly and just dropping around, which goes to show maybe these higher yields are now weighing on equities.

我们确实认为，实际利率上升才是真正在压制这些股票，但还没到让它们大幅回调或真正下跌的程度，不过我们也不能说这种情况不可能发生。

We do believe it's also the real interest rates that have come up that are really weighing on these equities, just not as much or not that much to the point that these equities will kind of correct and really go down, we don't say cannot happen.

所以我觉得，如果你一整年都在股市里，现在因为看到这些情况而变得稍微谨慎一些，那大概没错。

And that's why I think, yeah, if you have been in equities all year long and then now getting a little bit more defensive because of what we're seeing here is probably not wrong.

但话说回来，还有其他资产，比如黄金和比特币，这些硬资产，我们认为在当前这种环境下表现不错，尽管我们也会说比特币是风险资产，实际利率上升对黄金不利。

But then again, there's other assets, gold and Bitcoin, hard assets and we believe that they're doing well in a scenario like right now, even though we would also say Bitcoin is a risk asset, real interest rates going higher is bad for gold.

这难道不是在跟这些资产作对吗？

Isn't that sort of playing against these assets?

但话说回来，我们认为，关于货币贬值交易的讨论等等，这些正在推动黄金和比特币上涨。

But then again, we believe that these sort of the talk about the debasement trade and everything, this is fueling gold and Bitcoin.

而且在某种程度上，我的意思是，比特币目前表现更好一些。

And to some extent, I mean, Bitcoin is better off at this point in time.

那我为什么这么说呢？

And why would I say so?

不是因为我是比特币的铁杆粉丝，而是因为我真的觉得比特币正在走出大约十个月的熊市，而且可能已经准备好对债务贬值、国债回购这些叙事做出强烈反应。

Not because I'm a diehard Bitcoiner at heart, but because I genuinely believe Bitcoin is emerging from a roughly ten month bear market and maybe positioned to respond strongly to improving narratives around debt debasement and treasury buybacks and stuff like this.

我们已经看到这种情况了。

We've already seen this.

另外，因为熊市现在看起来真的已经差不多到头了，所以这可能是最好的选择。

Also because the bear market is really seemingly exhausted by now and that's why it's probably the best play.

所以在这一切当中，就目前这个时点来看，我觉得如果股市在这种环境下还能表现不错，或者只是来回震荡，我是说在长期收益率这么高的情况下，那比特币的表现会更好。

And so in all of this, just right now at this snapshot, I would argue that if equities are doing still well in a period like this or if they chop around, I mean, with these elevated long term yields, then BTC is going to do an even better.

所以比特币应该更受青睐。

And that's why BTC should be favored.

这可能在几个月后、几周后就会改变。

This can change in a few months time, a few weeks time.

几个月前可不是这样，那时候比特币看起来还真的处于熊市下跌趋势中。

This wasn't the case a few months back when Bitcoin was seemingly really still in its bear market downtrend.

但就在最近几周，情况发生了变化，所以事情正在改变。

But this has just switched now in the last few weeks and that's why things are changing.

我们还会做一期视频，深入探讨比特币，用我们手头所有的工具来分析目前的情况。

We will have another video on this where we deep dive and go into Bitcoin more closely and try to analyze with all the tools that we have, how things are looking.

我们真的已经进入牛市了吗？

Have we really entered the bull market yet?

简单来说，我们认为还没有。

Short, story here, we don't think we have.

比特币还有一些障碍需要突破，但前景看起来非常光明。

There's still, some hurdles that Bitcoin has to take out, but it's looking very good and bright.

而且我们认为，底部基本上已经确认了。

And in our view I think the bottom is really in.

我们不太相信价格会再跌破六万了。

We don't really believe that we're going below 60 ks anymore.

七月的低点很可能就是整个熊市的周期低点。

The July low was really probably the cycle low, the bear market cycle low.

我们不觉得中期选举有那么重要，尽管很多人认为这可能是又一个让比特币下跌的因素。

We don't think the midterms are that important even though a lot of people think this could be one more thing that is bringing Bitcoin down.

所以是的，我们真的觉得你应该这样看待它。

So yeah, we really think that's how you have to think about it.

这并不意味着比特币现在不会再次小幅回调，但我们认为低点已经出现，正如我们所说，这是周期低点。

And this doesn't mean that Bitcoin can still kind of now retrace a little again, but we think that the lows are in the cycle low, as we said.

所以是的，我们会在接下来几天录制的另一个视频里更详细地解释这一点。

So yeah, we're going to explain this in more details in the other video that we're going to record over the next few days.

现在，在这个视频的剩余部分，我们想转向货币贬值交易，因为黄金和比特币，这两者在这里都有点相关。

Now for the remainder of this video, we wanna turn to the debasement trade because it's gold and Bitcoin, both of these are kind of relevant here.

是的，那么这个货币贬值交易，它真的是一种需要防范的交易还是制度？

Yeah, so is this debasement trade thing, is it really a trade or a regime that you have to protect against?

我的意思是，这是我们最近在一个X Space上被问到的问题。

I mean, that was a question that we were recently asked on a X space that we had.

然后另一个问题是，它现在还有后劲吗？

And then the other question is like, does it have legs now?

这个贬值交易是已经真正开始了，还是说现在已经退潮了，今年剩下的时间里不会再有什么表现？

Is the basement trade or has it really started and now has already retreated and it's not really going to play for the remainder of this year.

它确实会在年底前发挥作用。

It does play a fact going into the end of the year.

但也许先看看大局。

But maybe first, a big picture.

如果你回顾历史，这绝对是一个自古以来就存在的模式。

If you look back in history, it's definitely a regime that has been going on since ancient times.

货币贬值跟人类历史一样古老。

Currency debasement is as old as human history.

我们在你身后书架上那本书里详细讲过，就是《比特币启蒙》。

We elaborated on this on the book that you see behind me on the shelf, the Bitcoin enlightenment.

这本书主要讲的就是政府如何总是试图贬值自己的货币。

This is really all about this showing how governments have always tried to debase their currency.

很多其他书也谈过这个，但我们觉得我们找到了一些独特的故事和内容可以分享。

And a lot of other books have talked about this, but we think we found some unique stories and stuff to share.

这里我想提一个人，就是“铜鼻子爵士”。

One thing that I can just bring up here is Sir Coppernose.

不知道你有没有听说过这个人。

I don't know if you have heard about that guy.

他就是亨利八世。

It's Henry VIII.

他是英国早期的国王。

He was a king in Great Britain, early England.

他之所以出名，或者说后来被称为“铜鼻子爵士”，是因为他当时用的好像是银币或者金币。

And he was really becoming famously or he became famous for being Sir Copper Nose because he had, I think silver coins or gold coins.

具体我记不太清了。

I don't recall exactly.

我记得好像是银币。

I think it was silver.

然后他把这些银币熔化，掺了铜进去。

And then he melted them down and he mixed it with copper.

因为硬币上那个鼻子有点凸出来。

At some point, because on the coin itself, the nose was kind of standing a little bit up in that sense.

然后硬币在跟布料之类的东西摩擦时，鼻子那块就被磨掉了。

And then when the coins were weighing against or just like going against like cloth and stuff that was kind of shiveled off.

后来你就能看到硬币上鼻子那个位置露出铜色来。

And at some point you could see the copper shining through the part of the nose on the coin itself.

所以大家就发现了，哎呀，他这是在偷偷降低我们的钱币成色啊。

And that's why people then figured out, hey, he's actually debasing us here.

于是他就得了这个外号，叫“铜鼻子爵士”。

And that's where he gained this moniker, the Sir Copper No.

这只是书里的一个小故事。

So that's just one story we have in the book.

我们还有很多类似的故事，如果你还没看过的话，可以去看看。

We have many other such stories so check it out if you haven't already.

不过话说回来，我们相信现在这个时代，尤其是当下，事情正在加速发展。

But then that being said, as said, we believe things are accelerating in our times and especially right now.

为什么会这样呢？

Why is this the case?

我觉得我可以在这里给你展示一下。

And I think I can show it to you right here.

让我看看。

Let me see.

有一件事很明显，就是这个。

One thing is obviously this here.

我得找一下。

I'll have to find it.

就是债务负担，又达到了历史高位。

It's debt loads, which is at historical highs again.

这张图显示的是美国债务占GDP的比例，到2025年大约是120%。

This is showing US debt to GDP, which is around 120 as of 2025.

我觉得到2026年，这个数字还会更高。

I think in 2026, we're even higher.

我们现在是122。

We're at one hundred twenty twenty two right now.

这里有点滞后。

This is lagging a little bit here.

对，这个数字非常高，尤其是从历史来看。

But yeah, this is very high, especially if you look historically.

我们二战结束后也到过这个水平，我一会儿再细说。

We've been here right after World War II again, and I'll come back to this in a minute.

但这肯定是其中一个因素。

But this is certainly one thing.

债务摆在这儿，需要再融资。

Debt is here and needs to be refinanced.

另一个就是我们之前聊过的人工智能军备竞赛。

And the other thing is the AI arms race that we already talked about.

实际上，整个人工智能军备竞赛也是靠债务来支撑的。

It's the fact that all of the AI arms race is really funded through debt as well.

你可以在这里看到，超大规模企业的年度资本支出这些年确实大幅增长，而且预计到2031年还会继续增长。

You can see it here, hyperscalers, hyperscalers annual CapEx has really ramped up significantly over the years and it's projected to ramp up even more going to 2031.

所以，从某种意义上说，这些都是需要创造出来的资金。

And so this is all money that needs to be created in that sense.

或者换个说法，所有这些资本支出和资金都必须从暗处浮出水面。

Or like, I have to say it differently, like all of this needs to be followed that CapEx and capital has to come out of hiding.

这也就是为什么收益率可能会走高，因为资本真的在努力为这些提供资金，而更多的资本正在推高收益率。

Again, that's why probably yields are going higher because capital is really trying to fund this and more capital is driving yields.

但同样重要的是，因为其中很多是债务，需要再融资和展期。

But then again, it's also important that because a lot of this is debt, it needs to be refinanced and rolled over.

这就是为什么我认为，需要的流动性数量可能会达到我们几年前无法想象的程度。

That's why I think not a lot of liquidity will be needed in numbers we can have never been able to fathom maybe a few years ago.

因为你看，这里已经达到了1万亿美元的资本支出，而且只是刚刚开始。

Because already if you look at this, we're reaching this is 1,000,000,000,000 in CapEx just funded.

这太疯狂了。

That's crazy.

总计将达到7.6万亿美元，预计会得到资金支持。

And in total it will be 7,600,000,000,000, which is projected to be funded.

而且，这些资金也需要滚动续期。

And again, that needs to be rolled.

所以我们认为，创造流动性非常重要。

And that's why we think so important that liquidity is being created.

这又回到了贝森特和沃什的话题上。

It just goes back again to Bessent, Warsh.

这就是为什么短期和长期的利率都需要控制在一定范围内。

That's why interest rate need to be kind of kept in check on the short as well as the long term.

政府必须介入，真正引导经济，确保一切正常运转。

And the government has to intervene and really steer the economy just to make sure everything is all right.

银行有足够的资产负债表来为这一切提供资金并进行滚动。

Banks have the balance sheet to finance all of this and roll all of this.

私人机构也有能力做到这一点。

Private institutions have the capacity to do this.

所以这就是为什么我们认为流动性会增加。

And so that's why we think liquidity will increase.

我们这里说的流动性，其实就像比特币层那帮人定义的那样，我们觉得这是一种滚动债务的方式，也就是经济滚动债务的能力。

And we were really defining liquidity here like the people over at the TBL, the Bitcoin layer, we're really thinking this is a way to roll things, the capacity of the economy to roll things.

这也是为什么你想让经济热起来，因为经济好的时候，你更容易滚动这些债务。

And that's also why you want to run an economy hot because the economy is doing well.

现在我要说的是，你更有能力也更有条件去持续滚动这些债务。

And now I say you're more prone and have the ability to roll this debt continuously.

所以我觉得像黄金和比特币这样的东西会表现不错。

And that's why I think stuff like gold and Bitcoin will be doing well.

所以这就是为什么贬值交易现在依然活跃，因为这是历史上一个独特的时刻。

And so that's why the debasement trade is alive and doing well just as we speak, because that's a unique snapshot in history.

我们以前从来没有遇到过这种情况。

We've never had that before.

现在真的正在发生。

This is really right now going on.