稳定币可能打破银行的最后一个垄断

显然，我认为稳定币非常重要。

Obviously, I I think Stablecoins are really important.

这也是我创办一个专门关注稳定币的博客的原因之一。

It's one of the reasons I started a dedicated blog with a peg

一直在关注它们。

following them.

但你知道，我越来越觉得稳定币是美国实施国家战略的一种工具。

But, you know, increasingly, I I I I just think Stablecoins are a a mechanism for statecraft by The US.

我认为它们的最终目的是让美国既能保住美元的地位，又能避免其他国家通过持有美债来影响美元体系，从而让世界继续使用美元。

The ultimate, you know, purpose of them, I think, is to have the The US to have its cake and eat it in terms of ensuring that the world can still be a dollar user.

而欧元美元体系最终取决于各国如何管理其离岸美元负债。

But without the downside that countries outside of your you know, outside The US end up collecting all these treasuries to to effectively create to to the euro dollar system is ultimately a function of of of how, you know, people manage their euro their dollar liabilities offshore.

这也是美国国债在海外需求旺盛的重要原因之一。

And that is one of the big demands points for for US Treasuries sitting abroad.

而且，你知道，我刚刚为《每日电讯报》写了一篇专栏，谈到我认为很多人没有意识到这一点，尤其是在2008年金融危机来临之前。

And, you know, I just did a column for the f for the Telegraph about how I don't think a lot of people appreciate that coming into 2008.

那时候，外国持有的美国国债比例已经超过了50%。

That was the point where foreign holdings of US treasuries had, like, tipped over 50%.

而且在比特币的思维里，50%是关键数字，对吧，控制权的关键。

And, you know, in the Bitcoin mindset, you know, 50 is, like, the key number, right, for control.

你可以有点

You can kind of

有点像是51%攻击。

can kind Just 1% attack.

51%。

51%.

如果超过50%的国债和债务被外国人持有，那他们就能在你的政治中发挥远超应有的影响力，因为他们基本上可以像英国那样，抵制他们不喜欢的政策，进行债券义警行动。

If more than like 50% of your treasuries and debt is owned by foreigners, like, they have an they get to exercise a far more like, an overly influential kind of role in in the in your in your politics because they can basically, like, The UK, boycott policy for bond vigilantism that they don't like and doesn't suit them.

所以你会失去对财政框架的控制，而且在这个担心外国影响和媒体的时代，我觉得很奇怪，居然有人会乐意鼓励外国人持有你的债券。

So you kind of lose control of how you manage your fiscal, you know, framework because and and, you know, in the era of, worrying about foreign influence and media and all this stuff, it's crazy to me that anyone would be happily encouraging foreign ownership of your bonds.

因为这实际上就像给了他们投票权。

Because it is effectively like giving voting power.

而且，你在海外持有的资产是没法征税的。

Moreover, you can't tax holdings abroad.

这是主权国家的一个奇怪特点：主权国家能收利息，但你没法对那部分收益征税，因为关键就在于，如果你发行4%的债券然后征税，那它就不是4%的债券了，这种模糊性是个政治问题。

Like, that's one of the weird sovereign quirks is that sovereigns get to collect coupon, and and you can't tax those earnings because the whole point is that, you know, otherwise, there's the repercussions of that if you if you issue a 4% bond and then you tax it, well, then it's not a 4% bond and this is an ambiguity that is political.

所以在国际层面上，你没法对它们征税。

So on an international basis, you have to keep you can't tax them.

但在国内发行时，你就可以。

But when you issue them domestically, you can.

你可以对债券的收益和收入征税，这给了政府很大的权力，因为它实际上通过税收控制了利率。

You can tax the revenue and the income from bonds, which gives the government a lot of power because it controls the interest rate through taxation effectively.

所以你发行4%的债券，但你要征20%的税。

So you issue a 4% bond, but you tax 20% of it.

那它真的还是

Like, is it really

4%的债券吗？

a 4% bond.

而且你还能把它循环利用。

And you're getting to recycle it.

所以这和稳定币的联系在于，如果你能建立一个系统，把在岸发行的、你可以征税的国债都汇集起来，然后发行这些流动性代币。

So so how it connects to Stablecoins is like, if you can, like, create a system that pools all the treasury bonds onshore in your jurisdiction issued by companies that you can tax, and they're issuing these, like, liquid tokens.

全世界都可以使用这些代币，但不必持有底层资产。

The world can use the tokens, but they don't have to hold the underlying.

这样就能两全其美。

So you get the best of both worlds.

这就是宏大的愿景。

That is the big vision.

这能让你重新掌控自己的财政，嗯，对。

It allows you to claims back control of your your your kind of fiscal Mhmm.

你可以重新设计财政自主权，从别人手里夺回来，同时保持货币霸权，却没有那些负面影响。

You you would you you you engineer fiscal autonomy again and you take it back from like you you maintain currency hegemony but without the downsides.

我的意思是，这就是愿景。

Mean, that's that's the vision.

我觉得贝松比任何人都更明白这一点。

And I think Besson understands that more than anybody.

没错。

Exactly.

我觉得说到泰达币，你知道，就是最大的持有者。

I think with regards to Tether, you know, like the biggest holder.

我的意思是，他们从技术上来说还是离岸的。

I mean, they are still sort of technically off shore.

但他们确实在美国建立了这个实体。

And and but they have built this entity in The US.

那是他们试图把业务带回岸上的方式吗？还是说，就是……

Is that where they try to bring them onshore or, like, yeah, just

嗯，我觉得总得有个开始。

Well, I think you have to start somewhere.

所以，如果你在做稳定币，你记得你的主要竞争对手是谁吗？

So if you are like, you remember, who is the big with Stablecoins, who are you competing against?

所以你是在跟那些根深蒂固的银行巨头竞争，你不可能取代它们。从国内的角度来看，稳定币根本不可能起步，因为你没法在支付上产生什么优势。

So you're competing the with the entrenched incumbents who are the banks, and you're not gonna displace displace like, it would have been impossible to get Stablecoins sort of going from the from a from a domestic standpoint because there isn't really a payments advantage that you can generate.

实际上，稳定币的全部意义在于为新兴市场以及那些货币不稳定的地区的人们提供——

And really, the whole whole point of Stablecoins is providing emerging markets and people with dodgy, you know, currencies that

就是——

are

那些管理不善的货币，给他们提供美元的稳定性和获取美元的渠道。

badly managed, giving them the stability of the dollar and access to it.

但同时又没有那些弊端。你知道，欧洲美元市场的问题在于，它获取美元的途径是通过一个系统，你必须依赖那些外国机构，相信它们会妥善管理自己的负债，但它们没有，你知道，它们创造了相对于储备过多的美元，最后基本上就破产了。

But without the without the downsides of being liable for you know, the problem with the euro dollar market was that that that the way it get engineered access to the dollar was through a system where you that you had to depend on the you had to trust these, like, foreign institutions that they wouldn't that they would manage their liabilities properly and they didn't, you know, and so they created too many dollars relative to the backing and and basically went bankrupt.

稳定币的美妙之处在于，你可以设计出使用美元的方式，而不用担心这些问题，因为你控制着底层资产，所以泰达就是为满足新兴市场的这些需求而生的，这正是推动稳定币发展的动力。

The beauty of stablecoins is that you can like engineer usage of the dollar without any of those concerns because you control the underlying and and you and and so Teva is born out of servicing those needs in the emerging markets, and that is what gives the momentum to Stablecoins.

现在，显然，在挑战银行的同时，你不可能从美国做到这一点，尤其是如果有一个对比特币不友好的政府，你知道，在比特币和加密货币发展的绝大部分时间里，监管态度基本上是不积极的。

Now, obviously, to do that whilst you are challenging the banks, you're not gonna be able to do that from The US, especially if you have a regime a regime, like an administration that is hostile to Bitcoin, which is what, you know, for the majority of the time that Bitcoin's coming, you know, crypto's coming up is majority of the regulatory kind of attitude was was was not positive.

所以你必须利用外部机制来启动整个事情。

So you have to kind of and you have to use external mechanisms to to just bootstrap to bootstrap the whole thing.

但现在既然已经起步了，你会发现Tether越来越往岸上转移了。

But I think now that it's been bootstrapped, you see that Tether has increasingly, you know, migrated back onshore.

他们想合法化，我称之为‘迈克尔·柯里昂效应’，就是努力洗白。

They're trying to legitimate they're going I call it sort of like the Michael Corleone effect where, you know, we're trying to go legit.

而且很快，是的，他们现在总部在萨尔瓦多。

And and soon enough, yes, they're based out of El Salvador.

我觉得目前这对他们有用，因为要保持在新兴市场的份额，我觉得还是有很多人不信任美国政府。

I think that is currently useful for them because to maintain to maintain market share in in emerging markets, I think there's still a lot of people out there who don't trust the US government.

他们想要美元，但又不想受那些合规约束。

They want access to the dollar without, like, the compliance.

所以在萨尔瓦多，就给人一种模糊感，搞不清他们到底为谁服务。

So being in El Salvador kind of creates a sort of an ambiguity over who who they really serve.

话虽如此，随着Tether越来越受财政部控制，冻结伊朗和委内瑞拉的稳定币，我觉得那种模糊感现在已经完全消失了。

That said, with with Teva increasingly under the thumb of the Treasury and freezing Iranian Stablecoins, Venezuelan Stablecoins, I don't think there's any I I think that ambiguity's gone out the window now.

所以现在在萨尔瓦多注册的好处正在大幅减少，因为他们现在很明显了。我想他们会保留萨尔瓦多的注册，直到特朗普政府之后谁接班的不确定性消除为止。

So there's the the upside of being registered in El Salvador now is is is diminishing massively because they're obvious now I would I would imagine they maintain the El Salvador listing for as long as there's uncertainty over who takes over after the Trump administration.

因为如果遇到一个不友好的加密货币政府，那这就是对美国政府政治变化的一种对冲。

Because if if you get a hostile, you know, crypto administration, it's it's a hedge against whatever happens politically, I think, in The US.

对。

So Mhmm.

目前，他们两边的好处都占到了。

At the moment, they have the best of both worlds.

他们在萨尔瓦多注册，但也在美国设有子公司。

They have El Salvador, but they also have subsidiaries, you know, in The US.

他们有霍华德·卢特尼克。

They have Howard Lutnick.

他们还有……而且现在也在大举进入黄金代币市场。

They have they have they have and they've they're now piling into the golden gold token market as well.

所以，泰达到底是谁，这才是问题。

So who are Teva really is the question.

我是说，他们到底是谁？

I mean, who are they?

我有点觉得他们自己也有点像国家层面的操盘手。

I kinda think they're they're a bit state crafty in their own way.

而且我觉得他们做的很多事情，其实都是在美国政府的默许下进行的。

And I think a lot of what they do is done with the with the blessing of The US Government.

你觉得《清晰法案》在这其中有多重要？

What do you think how what's the importance of the Clarity Act in all of this?

我的意思是，《天才法案》是不是更偏向稳定币？

I mean, the Genius Act, was was it more catered towards Stablecoins?

那《清晰法案》呢？

And what about Clarity now?

因为据我所知，今年早些时候这个法案通过的可能性还挺大的。

Because like, from what I can see, there was high chance earlier in the year that this would pass.

现在在Polymarket上的概率可能降到20%了，你知道吗？

Now we're down to maybe 20% on Polymarket odds, you know?

所以很多人就觉得，好吧，这个可能不会来了。

And so a a lot of people are like, okay, this might not be coming.

然后一些犹豫不决的人和加密货币圈的人觉得，不，这肯定会来的。

Then some indeciders and crypto people feel like, no, it's it's it's obvious that this will come.

但话说回来，这到底有什么关系呢？

But yeah, what's the relevance at all?

那你觉得它会通过吗，还是说？

And and do you think it will pass or or like?

我觉得，不管怎样，Genius法案都会为稳定币建立一个框架。

So I think genius either way establishes framework for Stablecoins.

Clarity法案的关键在于，稳定币能在多大程度上受益于更广泛的加密货币生态系统。

Clarity is is really about what degree Stablecoins can kind of benefit from the wider crypto ecosystem.

而其中最重要的部分是，它们能在多大程度上提高收益率。

And to what degree the most important part of it is to what degree they can enhance yields.

并且能和银行竞争。

And and and and compete with banks.

银行对此非常担心，因为这自然会抢走他们的生意，他们不得不——比如说，G-SIB银行，让我惊讶的是，他们一年期以下的平均存款，居然还是零利率。

And banks are very concerned about this because naturally that's gonna eat their lunch and they would have to I for example, G SIB banks, it's amazing to me that the average deposit that they have under a year, they still pay zero interest on it.

作为一个欧洲人，我觉得这在当前的利率环境下简直不可思议。

Like that to me is as a European, that's insane in the current, like, interest rate environment.

就是说，虽然我们利息不高，但存款确实是有利息的。

It's like, okay, we don't get much interest but we get we do get interest on deposits.

这反映了美国大型银行（G-SIB）的实力。

And that that that is that is and that reflects the power of the g sip banks in in The US.

他们拥有大量的流动性和资金池。

They have so much liquidity, so much access to float.

不过，这是他们真正有优势的最后一个领域了。

It's their last domain though in terms of where they have a real advantage.

他们的牌照让他们在这个资金池上拥有真正的优势。

Their license gives them a real advantage over this float.

如果稳定币进入市场，因为其他方面他们已经被竞争打败了，你知道，自2008年以来，他们很多其他利润中心都被市场开放有意地竞争掉了。

And if Stablecoins come in because everything else, they've been kind of out competed on, like, it's, you know, a lot of their other profit centers have since 2008 been kind of purposefully out competed by opening up the markets.

所以，资金池是他们最后的真正垄断。

So flow is their last real monopoly.

如果你设计出稳定币，而这些稳定币能开始打破那种不付存款人利息的垄断局面，因为它们突然创造了一种场景，让你可以有流动性强的资金流，而且这种资金流还会根据流动性的供需动态变化而支付利息。

And if you engineer Stablecoins and those Stablecoins can start, like, breaking up the the the the kind of a merger around, you know, not paying depositors because they suddenly engineer a scenario where you can have liquid liquid flow, which also pays interest because it responds so dynamically to to supply and demand for liquidity.

这对银行体系来说是个威胁。

That's a threat to the banking system.

基本上，这打破了他们的最后一个垄断。

Like, it basically un unhinges their last monopoly.

我认为，这就是我们看到的Clarity背后的银行游说力量。

And and I think that's, you know so what we're seeing with Clarity is just the lobbying power of the banks.