你的现金和债券正在为债务危机买单

这当然是个大问题，也是我们投资理念的核心部分。

This is this is, of course, the big question and also the main part of our investment philosophy.

所以我们相信，而且如果你看数据的话，这一点也很明显。

And so so we believe, and and it's it's pretty obvious if if you look at the data.

我们生活在一个老龄化社会，需要越来越多的债务来维持增长。

So we live in an aging society that needs ever more debt to keep growing.

举个例子，很多人把中国看作某种增长奇迹。

So, if you take this also the nice example, a lot of people see China as some kind of growth miracle.

但如果你看他们的劳动力，它缩水的速度比日本、德国，甚至比美国和欧洲还要快。

But if you look at their labor force, it's shrinking even faster than in Japan, in Germany, than in micro and US.

所以，老龄化对GDP增长是不利的。

So, aging is a negative for GDP growth.

没人愿意接受这一点。

Nobody accepts that.

没有人会因为说这种话而赢得选举。

Nobody wins elections by saying this is the case.

那所有这些政客和政策制定者会怎么做呢？

So what do all these politicians and policymakers do?

他们会积累更多债务来维持增长，因为否则的话，老龄化本身就会慢慢吞噬你的经济。

They accumulate more debt to continue to keep growing because otherwise, this whole aging part will literally eat your economy away.

这意味着，债务现在已经是GDP增长的主要引擎了，甚至对中国这样的国家来说也是如此。

Now, this means that that is now the main engine of GDP growth in general, even for a country like China.

所以问题不再是我们要怎样增长得更快？

And that means that the question is not how are we going to grow faster?

我们怎样更好地利用资源，让人们过上更好的生活，拥有更多财富之类的？

How are we going to use our means better that people have a better life, more wealth, whatever?

不，问题是我们要怎样确保这种靠债务驱动的增长模式不会崩溃？

No, the question is how do we make sure that this debt driven growth model does not fall apart?

然后游戏规则就变了，因为你会看到，实际上也是这样，八月就是一个例子。

And then the rules of the game change because then you see, and you see that in practice, and August was an example of that.

然后你会看到，政策制定者做决定的时候，依据的不是通胀水平，也不是失业率本身，而是我们所说的债务可持续性。

Then you see that policymakers will make decisions not based on inflation levels, not based on unemployment per se, but on debt sustainability as we call it.

那么，怎么才能实现债务可持续呢？

Now, how can you create debt sustainability?

首先，作为政府，你可以减少开支。

First, as a government, you can spend less.

但正如我们所见，这不太可能。

Well, that is not possible as we've seen.

你可以提高税收，但只能提高到一定程度。

You can raise taxes, but only to a certain amount.

然后人们——这是个热门话题，尤其是在荷兰，最近提出了新的财富收益税。

And then people, and this is a hot topic, especially now in The Netherlands with the new proposed tax on wealth gains.

很多人最终会搬到资本税较低的地方去。

Lot of people will in the end move somewhere else where capital is taxed less.

所以，你需要一个非常直接的招数，那就是提高通胀，因为通胀会稀释名义债务水平，并在利率过高时压低利率，因为低利率提高了债务的可负担性，而通胀则抹去部分债务。

So, then you need a very straightforward trick, and that is increase inflation because that inflates away the nominal debt levels, and push down interest rates when they go too high, because low interest rates increase the affordability of debt, and inflation erases part of that debt.

所以，如果你相信长期平均利率会保持低位或更低——这是个定义问题——而通胀会保持高位或更高，不管怎样，高于央行官方目标的2%，那么你就会遇到一个非常棘手的组合：低利率和高通胀。

So if you believe that interest rates on average in the longer run will be low or lower, this is a definition question, and inflation will be high or higher, again, whatever, so higher than the 2% that central banks officially target, then you have a very nasty mix of low interest rates and high inflation.

那我何必还要存钱呢？

So why would I save if I don't have to?

我为什么要买债券？

Why would I buy bonds?

因为它们会贬值。

Because they will lose purchasing power.

这就是问题的关键。

And that is your whole chimpanzee.

很多人以为法国或者美国会违约。

A lot of people think that French will default or The United States will default.

它们不会，但问题恰恰就在这里。

They won't, but that is exactly the problem.

它们会印钞来压低利率，导致通胀，而你存在银行里的钱、你的债务或者养老金里的债券，实际上都在为此买单。

They will print money to push down interest rates, creating inflation, and you with your money in the bank or your debts or bonds in your pension fund are literally paying the price.

所以我们不喜欢这样。

So that is we don't like it.

我觉得我们不相信末日情景，但这就是金融体系的运作方式。

I think we don't believe in doom scenarios, but this is the way financial system works.

而且我不想持有那些90%以上可能会失去购买力的资产，因为投资的全部意义就是增长或者至少保护购买力。

And I don't want to hold assets that will 90%, 90% sure lose purchasing power because the whole idea of investing is grow or at least protect purchasing power.

增长或者保护你的那块蛋糕。

Grow or protect your pie.

没错，就是这样。

But that's exactly right.

这就是很多人不明白的地方，因为他们只考虑名义价值，名义上你银行账户里的一万欧元或者十万欧元还是那么多。

I mean, that's what a lot of people don't get, you know, because they think just in nominal terms and nominally like your 10,000 Euro or 100,000 Euro on in your bank account still remain the same.

但实际上，跟其他商品相比，比如你提到的实物商品、硬资产、稳健货币资产，这些资产确实会失去实际购买力。

But then like in real terms, these things against other goods, like the real goods and assets, the hard assets, the sound money assets that you mentioned against these, they definitely lose real purchasing power.

我觉得这就是很多人还需要理解的地方。

And that's I think where it needs to click still with a lot of people.

现在越来越多人理解了，像比特币这样的东西在近几年帮了忙，但很多人还是需要恍然大悟。

It does ever more and I think topics like Bitcoin, you know, have helped in the in the recent years, but it's still something that needs to kinda where the penny needs to drop for many people.

你提到了资本利得税或者财富税的事情。

You mentioned the thing with the capital gains tax, know, or wealth tax.

我也不太清楚。

Like, I don't know.

你能稍微详细说说吗？

Can you elaborate on this a little?

因为我

Because I

觉得

think like

其他国家也在讨论这些。

there's also happening in other countries, these discussions.

而且我感觉在欧洲，有很多关于交易税的讨论，就是将来每笔股票交易都要交税。

And I feel like in Europe, were a lot of discussions about like a transactional tax, you know, where at some point every equity transaction would be taxed.

我觉得现在还没实施，但将来他们可能会推出各种不同的税，因为他们不得不这么做。

I think it's not the case yet, but they will probably come up with different taxes at some point because they have to.

播客结束之后想接收更多信息吗？

Want to signal after the episode ends?

每周我们都会发布一篇“少噪音，多信号”的Substack跟进文章，总结每期节目的重点和关键观点，并分享我们自己的见解。

Every week we publish a lessnoise, more signal substack follow-up for each episode where we summarize the key points and ideas that matter and give you our own tape on what it all means.

更多背景，更多细节，更多信号。

More context, more nuance, more signal.

今天就订阅Substack上的“少噪音，多信号”，让你始终领先一步。

Subscribe to lessnoise, more signal on Substack today and stay one step ahead.

正如之前提到的，在一个债务驱动的世界里，提高税收是降低预算赤字的选择之一。

As mentioned in a debt driven world, raising taxes is one of the options to lower the budget deficits, for example.

当然，具体怎么实施就是另一个问题了。

And then, of course, it's a choice of how to do that.

你看，在荷兰，我们的资本利得税是36%，是在实现收益时征收的。

You see, in The Netherlands, we have a capital gain tax when realized of 36%.

所以这个税率真的非常高。

So that is really, really high.

比如我们的邻国比利时，在部分投资组合上只收10%。

For example, Belgium, our neighbor, it's 10% on some parts of the portfolio.

所以，这是其中一点。

So, that is one thing.

所以，36%已经相当高了，对吧？

So, 36% is already pretty massive, right?

而且基本上，他们把整个征税系统搞得一团糟。

And basically, they messed up the whole system, how to collect that tax.

然后有个法官说，你们不能再这样做了。

Then there was a judge that says, You cannot do that like this anymore.

他们必须改变。

They had to change.

在荷兰，唯一的要求就是税收总收入不能下降。

And the only thing in The Netherlands is that the total amount of tax income cannot go down.

这就是政策制定者真正关注的重点。

That is the literal focus of policymakers.

现在他们在做什么呢？他们说，好吧，我们要对大部分投资组合实现收益时征税，但对比特币和实物黄金不征。

Now, what are doing now is they say, okay, we are going to introduce this tax for when realize gains for most of your portfolio, but for Bitcoin and physical gold, not.

所以，如果你购买比特币ETF或黄金ETF，实现收益时就要交税。

So if you buy a Bitcoin ETF or gold ETF, you get taxed when you realize that gain.

但如果你把实物黄金放在瑞士的保险柜里，真正拥有它，那么你每年都要为纸面收益交税。

But if you hold it in a fold in Switzerland, so you have the real thing, then you get taxed every year on paper gains.

所以现在有大量的抗议声，说为什么你们要区别对待不同的资产，尤其是那些实际所有权至关重要的资产。

So there's now this massive outcry that why are you discriminating between different assets, and also to those assets where the actual ownership is crucial.

所以是的，我能想象加密货币行业和黄金行业真的很生气，我也理解他们为什么生气。

So yeah, I can imagine that the crypto industry and the gold industry, they're really angry, and I can understand why.

事情就是这样。

So there's the thing.

然后还有未实现收益。

And then you have the unrealized gains.

所以纸面收益是要交税的。

So the paper gains are taxed.

这意味着你实际上会打断复利效应，因为你必须卖出。

That means you literally disrupt the compounding effect because you have to sell.

如果你全额投资了，你就得卖掉一些比特币或黄金来支付这些税。

If you're fully invested, you have to sell some of your Bitcoin or whatever gold to to pay for those taxes.

这也是我觉得有趣的地方，复利对每个人来说都是一样的。

And that is also what I find interesting that compounding is the same for everyone.

无论你投资100欧元还是1000万欧元，复利都是帮助你长期保持购买力的关键。

If you invest with a €100 or for 10,000,000, the compounding is what helps you preserve purchasing power in the long run.

而我的政府决定粗暴地干预这种复利效应，因为他们每年必须从这个方面获得40亿的税收。

And my government has decided to brutally intervene in that compounding effect because they have to have 4,000,000,000 of tax income from this side every year.

所以，这真的很愚蠢，因为你无法计算它，因为它还取决于市场。

So, it's really stupid because you cannot calculate on it because it also depends on markets.

但现在你有这两个世界。

But now you have these two worlds.

所以，账面收益和已实现收益。

So, paper gains and realized gains.

那么现在的问题当然是，比特币和黄金被排除在已实现收益之外，这难道是巧合吗？

And now the question, of course, is, is it a coincidence that Bitcoin and gold are left outside the realized gain part?

当然，这引发了很多疑问。

And of course, this raises a lot of questions.

但这就是现在正在发生的事情。

But this is now what is happening.

所以36%高得吓人。

So 36% is disturbingly high.

而且现在有两种税收制度，比特币和黄金可以说是处在税收制度的不利一端。

And now you also have the two kinds of tax systems, and then Bitcoin and gold are on the wrong end of the tax system, so to say.