#252 – 埃隆·马斯克：SpaceX、火星、特斯拉自动驾驶、无人驾驶、机器人技术与人工智能

这其实就是说，让我们把事情还原到最根本的原则，那些我们在基础层面上最确信为真的东西。

It's just it's it's really just saying, you know, let's let's boil something down to the most fundamental principles, the things that we are most confident are true at a foundational level.

这为你设定了公理基础，然后你从那里开始推理。

And that sets your at your sets your axiomatic base, and then you reason up from there.

接着，你会将你的结论与这些公理真理进行交叉验证。

And then you cross check your conclusion against the the axiomatic truth.

所以，物理学中的一些基本准则，比如你是否违反了能量或动量守恒之类的原则？

So, you know, some basics in physics would be like, are you violating conservation of energy or momentum or something like that?

你知道，如果违反了，那事情就不可能成功。

You know, then you you're it's not gonna work.

所以，这仅仅是为了确立这一点。

So that's, you know, so that's just to establish.

这有可能吗？

Is is it is it possible?

另一个很好的物理学工具是思考极限情况。

And another good physics tool is thinking about things in the limit.

如果你取某个特定的东西，将其放大到非常大的数量或缩小到非常小的数量，事情会如何变化？

If you if you take a particular thing and you scale it to a very large number or to a very small number, how does how do things change?

两者都包括，比如在你制造的产品数量上，或者在时间上？

Both, like, temper like, in number of things you manufacture or something like that and then in time?

是的。

Yeah.

比如说，以制造为例，我认为这是一个被严重低估的问题。

Like, let's say say, take an example of, like like, manufacturing, which I think is just a very underrated problem.

而且，正如我所说，将一款先进技术产品投入大规模生产，比

And and, like I said, it's much harder to take a advanced technology product and bring it into volume manufacturing than

一开始设计它要困难得多。

it is to design it in

首先。

the first place.

我的数量级。

My orders of magnitude.

所以，假设你正试图弄清楚，为什么这个零件或产品这么贵？

So so let's say you're trying to figure out is, like, why is this this part or product expensive?

是因为我们做了什么根本性的愚蠢事情，还是因为我们的产量太低？

Is it because of something fundamentally foolish that we're doing, or is it because our volume is too low?

于是你说，好吧。

And so then you say, okay.

如果我们每年产量达到一百万件呢？

Well, what if our volume was a million units a year?

它还是贵吗？

Is it still expensive?

这就是我所说的从极限角度思考问题。

That's what I mean by thinking about things in the limit.

如果每年一百万件时它仍然很贵，那么产量就不是你的产品昂贵的原因。

If it's still expensive at a million units a year, then volume is not the reason why your thing is expensive.

问题出在设计本身上。

There's something fundamental about design.

然后你就可以专注于减少复杂性之类的问题

And then you then can focus on the com reducing complexity or something like that in

在设计上吗？

the design?

通过设计改变零件，使其不再从根本上昂贵。

The design to change change the part to be something that is not fundamentally expensive.

但在航空领域，这很常见，因为单位产量相对较低。

But but, like, that's a common thing in rugby tree because the the unit volume is is relatively low.

所以一个常见的借口是，它很贵是因为我们的单位产量低。

And so a common excuse would be, well, it's expensive because our unit volume is low.

如果我们身处汽车行业或消费电子行业，成本就会更低。

And if we were in, like, automotive or something like that or consumer electronics, then our costs would be lower.

我说，好吧。

I'm like I'm like, okay.

假设我们现在每年生产一百万单位。

So let's say we now now you're making a million units a year.

它仍然昂贵吗？

Is it still expensive?

如果答案是肯定的，那么规模经济就不是问题。

If the answer is yes, then economies of scale are not the issue.

你会考虑到制造环节吗？

Do you throw into manufacturing?

你会考虑到供应链吗？

Do you throw, like, supply chain?

你谈到了资源、材料之类的东西。

You talked about resources and materials and stuff like that.

你会把这些因素也纳入从第一性原理出发的计算中吗？比如，我们得让这里的供应链运转起来？

Do you throw that into the calculation of trying to reason from first principles, like, we're gonna make the supply chain work here?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

然后材料成本，像这些东西，还是说

And then the cost of materials, things like that, or is that

太多了？

too much?

没错。

Exactly.

所以，另一个从极限角度思考问题的好例子是，如果你取任何产品、任何机器，比如火箭，然后说，

So, like, another like, a good example, like, of thinking about things in the limit is if you take any, you know, any any product, any machine or whatever, like take a rocket or whatever, and say,

如果你看

you've got if if you look

火箭的原材料，你会有铝、钢、钛、因科镍合金、特殊合金、铜等。

at the raw raw materials in the rocket so you're gonna have, like, an aluminum, steel, titanium, inconel, special specialty alloys, copper.

然后你问，这些材料中每种元素的组成成分重量是多少？它们的原材料价值是多少？

And and you say, what are the what what what's the weight of the constituent elements of of each of these elements, and what is their raw material value?

这设定了车辆成本的渐近下限，除非你改变材料本身。

And that sets the asymptotic limit for how low the cost of the vehicle can be unless you change the the materials.

所以当你这么做的时候，可以称之为所谓的‘魔法棒数字’之类的东西。

So and then when you do that, call it, like, maybe the magic wand number or something like that.

也就是说，如果你面前堆着一堆这些原材料，然后你挥动魔法棒，把原子重新排列成最终的形状。

So that would be like if you had the, you know, like, just a a pile of these raw materials here and you could wave the magic wand and rearrange the atoms into the final shape.

那这就是在不改变材料的情况下，制造这件东西的最低可能成本。

That would be the lowest possible cost that you could make this thing for unless you change the materials.

而这个数字通常都非常低。

So then and that is always a almost always a very low number.

那么，真正导致这些产品昂贵的原因，是你如何将原子排列成所需的形状。

So then the the what's actually causing these to be expensive is how you put the atoms into the desired shape.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，如果你不介意我稍微岔开一下话题，我经常和吉姆·凯勒交谈，他曾经和你共事过。

I actually if you don't mind me taking a tiny tangent, I had a I often talked to Jim Keller, who's somebody that worked with you

哦，是的。

as a Oh, yeah.

是啊。

Was a yeah.

他在特斯拉做得非常出色。

He did great work at Tesla.

所以我认为他延续了你目前正在谈论的这种思维方式。

So I suppose he carries the flame of the same kind of thinking that you're you're talking about now.

而且我觉得在特斯拉和SpaceX的员工身上也能看到同样的东西。

And I I guess I see that same thing at at Tesla and and SpaceX folks who work there.

他们逐渐学会了这种思维方式，几乎变得显而易见。

They kind of learn this way of thinking, and it kinda becomes obvious almost.

但不管怎样，我之前和他有过一场讨论——不是争论。

But, anyway, I had argument not argument.

他让我了解到制造特斯拉机器人可能有多便宜。

He educated me about how cheap it might be to manufacture a Tesla bot.

我们只是进行了一场讨论。

We just we had an argument.

如何降低机器人生产的规模成本？

What is how can you reduce the cost of scale of producing a robot?

因为我有机会在学术圈里与人形机器人，比如波士顿动力公司的产品，进行大量互动，它们的制造成本非常高。

Because so I've gotten a chance to interact quite a bit, obviously, in in the academic circles with humanoid robots, and then my Boston Dynamics, and stuff like that, and they're they're very expensive to to build.

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后吉姆给我上了一课，他说：好吧，这种第一性原理的思维方式，我们该如何降低制造成本？

And then Jim kinda schooled me on saying, like, okay, like, this kind of first principles thinking of how can we get the cost of manufacture down?

我想你是这么做的。

I suppose you do that.

你已经对特斯拉机器人以及所有那些传统上被视为复杂的系统，运用了这种思维方式。

You have done that kind of thinking for Tesla bot and for all kinds of all kinds of complex systems that are traditionally seen as complex.

你说，好吧。

And you say, okay.

我们该如何把一切简化到极致？

How can we simplify everything down?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你在制造方面非常出色，就能大规模生产，基本上可以把任何东西的成本降到接近其组成原材料的价值，再加上你需要授权的任何知识产权。

I I mean, I think if you if you are really good at manufacturing, you can basically make at high volume, you can basically make anything for a cost that asymptotically approaches the raw raw material value of the constituents plus any intellectual property that you need to license.

对。

Right.

任何东西。

Anything.

对。

Right.

但这很难。

But it's it's hard.

这并不是一件特别难的事，但任何东西都是可能的。

It's not like that's a very hard thing to do, but but it is possible for anything.

大规模生产的东西，就像我说的，成本可以趋近于其原材料价值加上知识产权许可费用。

Anything in volume can be made of, like I said, for a cost that asymptotically approaches its raw material constituents plus intellectual property license rights.

因此，在设计产品时，人们通常会从自己熟悉的工具、零件和方法出发，然后尝试用这些现有的工具和方法来创造产品。

So what will often happen in trying to design a product is is people will start with the tools and and parts and methods that they are familiar with and then and and try to create a product using their existing tools and methods.

另一种思考方式是，试着想象一个完美的产品或技术的柏拉图式理想形态，无论它是什么。

The other way to think about it is actually imagine the try to imagine the platonic ideal of the perfect product or technology, whatever it might be.

那么，什么是原子的最佳排列方式，才能构成最理想的产品呢？

And so what is this what what is the perfect arrangement of atoms that would be the the best possible product?

现在，让我们尝试找出如何将原子排列成那样的形状。

And now let us try to figure out how to get the atoms in that shape.

我的意思是，这听起来几乎像《瑞克和莫蒂》里的荒诞情节，但当你真正深入思考时，你就应该以这种方式去思考。

I mean, it's it sounds it's almost like a Rick and Morty absurd until you start to really think about it, and it you really should think about it in this way.

因为，没错。

Because Yeah.

如果你不以这种方式思考，就很容易被过去做事方式的惯性所左右。

Everything else is kind of if if you think you you might fall victim to the momentum of the way things were done in the past, unless you think in this way.

由于惯性的作用，人们会倾向于使用自己熟悉的工具和方法。

Well, just as a function of inertia, people will want to use the same tools and methods that they are familiar with.

他们只是会默认这么做。

They just that's what they'll do by default.

没错。

Yeah.

而这会导致结果局限于这些工具和方法能制造出的东西，却不太可能是完美产品的理想形态。

And then that that will lead to an outcome of things that can be made with those tools and methods, but is unlikely to be the platonic ideal of the perfect product.

所以，从两个方向思考问题是有好处的。

So then so that's why it's it's good to think of things in both directions.

比如，我们用现有的工具能做出什么？

So like, what can we build with the tools that we have?

但同时，那个完美的、理论上的理想产品应该是什么样子？

But then but but also what is the what is the perfect the theoretical perfect product look like?

而这个理论上的理想产品会是一个移动的目标，因为随着你不断学习，对完美产品的定义也会改变——因为你其实并不知道什么是完美的产品，但你可以成功地逼近一个更完美的产品。

And and that that theoretical perfect product is gonna be a moving target because as you learn more, the definition of or or or for that perfect product will will change because you don't actually know what the perfect product is, but you can successfully approximate a a a more perfect product.

所以，这样去思考：好的，那么我们需要什么样的工具、方法、材料等等，才能把原子排列成那样的形状？

So think about it like that and then saying, okay, now what tools, methods, materials, whatever do we need to create in order to get the atoms in that shape?

但人们很少这样思考，但这是一种强大的工具。

But but but people rarely think about it that way, but it's a powerful tool.

我应该提一下，才华横溢的西奥班·齐利斯正在和我们在一起，如果你听到上方传来智慧的声音，那就是她。

I should mention that the brilliant Siobhan Zillis is hanging hanging out with us in case you hear a voice of wisdom from from from outside, from up above.

好的。

Okay.

那么，让我问你关于火星的事。

So let me ask you about Mars.

你提到，在月球上建立基地进行科学研究将对科学大有裨益，但在这个看似不可能的领域中，真正的巨大飞跃是将人类送上火星。

You mentioned it would be great for science to put a base on the moon to do some research, but the truly big leap, again, in this category of seemingly impossible, is to put a human being on Mars.

你认为SpaceX什么时候能将人类送上火星？

When do you think SpaceX will land a human being on Mars?

最好的情况是大约五年。

Best case is about five years.

最坏的情况是十年。

Worst case, ten years.

从工程角度来看，决定性因素是什么？还是说这些并不是瓶颈？

What are the determining factors, would you say, from an engineering perspective, or is that that not the bottlenecks?

你知道，从根本上说，关键是设计好这艘飞行器。

You know, it's it's fundamentally, you know, engineering the the vehicle.

我的意思是，星舰是迄今为止制造过的最复杂、最先进的火箭，复杂程度可能高出一个数量级左右。

I mean, Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by, I don't know, order of magnitude or something like that.

这难度太大了。

It's a lot.

这真的是下一个层级的水平。

It's really next level.

因此，星舰的根本优化目标是降低每吨进入轨道的成本，最终是降低每吨到达火星表面的成本。

So and the fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars.

这听起来可能像是一个商业目标，但事实上，这才是需要优化的关键。

This may seem like a mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized.

当每吨到达火星表面的成本达到某个临界点时，我们就能负担得起建立一个自给自足的城市；而超过这个成本，我们就负担不起。

Like, there is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self sustaining city, And and and then above that, we cannot afford to do it.

所以现在，你花一万亿美金也飞不了火星。

So right right now, you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars.

不管多少钱，都买不到一张去火星的票。

Doesn't no amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars.

所以我们需要把成本降低到一个真正可行的水平。

So we need to get that above, you know, to get that, like, something that is actually possible at all.

但我们不只想在火星上插个旗、留下脚印，然后半个世纪都不再回去，就像我们对月球做的那样。

But but then but that's that's we we don't we don't just wanna have, you know, with Mars flags and footprints and then not come back for a half century like we did with the moon.

为了通过一个非常重要的重大过滤器，我认为我们必须成为多行星物种。

In in order to pass a very important great filter, I think we we need to be a multi planet species.

这听起来对很多人来说可能有点玄乎，但最终，随着时间推移，地球很可能会遭遇某种灾难——可能是人类自己造成的，也可能是像恐龙那样来自外部的事件。

This may sound somewhat esoteric to to a lot of people, but, like, eventually, given enough time, there's something the Earth is likely to experience some calamity that could be something that humans do to themselves or an external event like happened to the dinosaurs.

而且，如果这些都没发生，奇迹般地我们一直延续下去，那么太阳会逐渐膨胀，最终吞噬地球。

And but but, you know, eventually and and and if if none if if none of that happens and somehow magically we keep going, then the the sun will the sun is gradually expanding and will engulf the earth.

地球大概在五亿年后就会变得太热，不再适合生命生存。

And probably earth gets too hot for life in about five hundred million years.

这是一段很长的时间，但只比地球存在的时间长了10%。

It's a long time, but that's only 10% longer than Earth has been around.

所以，如果你想想当前的情况，这真的非常非凡，甚至让人难以置信。

And so if you think about, like, the the current situation, it's really remarkable and kind of hard to believe.

但地球已经存在了四十五亿年，而这是四十五亿年来第一次有可能将生命扩展到地球之外。

But Earth's been around four and a half billion years, and this is the first time in four and a half billion years that it's been possible to extend life beyond Earth.

这个机会之窗可能会持续很长时间，我希望如此，但也可能只开放很短的时间。

And that window of opportunity may be open for a long time, and I hope it is, but it also may be open for a short time.

我认为，我们应该在机会之窗还开着的时候迅速行动，以防它突然关闭。

And we should, I think, address wise for us to act quickly while the window is open, just in case it it closes.

是的。

Yeah.

核武器、大流行病，各种各样的威胁，确实如此。

The existence of nuclear weapons, pandemics, all kinds of threats Yeah.

这些应该能给我们一些动力。

Should should kind of give us some motivation.

我的意思是，文明可能轰然崩塌，也可能悄无声息地消亡，你知道吗？

I mean, civilization could get could die with a bang or a whimper, You know?

如果是因为人口结构崩溃而灭亡，那显然更像是一种悄无声息的消亡。

If it's a if it dies of demographic collapse, then it's more of a whimper, obviously.

但如果是第三次世界大战，那就更像是一场轰然巨响。

But and if it's World War three, it's more of a bang.

但这些都属于风险。

But but these are all risks.

我的意思是，重要的是要思考这些问题，把事情看作是概率，而不是确定性。

I mean, it's important to think of these things and just, you know, think of things as like probabilities, not certainties.

地球上发生糟糕事情的概率是存在的。

There's probability that something bad will happen on Earth.

我认为，未来很可能是美好的。

I I like I think most likely the future will be good.

但比如说，为了论证，每世纪有1%的概率会发生文明终结事件。

But there's, like, let's say, for argument's sake, a 1% chance per century of of a civilization ending event.

这其实是斯蒂芬·霍金的估计。

Like, that was Stephen Hawking's estimate.

我觉得他在这方面可能是对的。

I think he's he might be right about that.

所以，我们应该把这看作是成为多星球物种的事情。

So then, you know, we we should basically think of this like being a multi planet species.

这就像为生命本身购买保险。

It's like taking out insurance for life itself.

就像是为生命买人寿保险。

Like, life insurance for life.

哇。

Wow.

这怎么突然变成广告了。

This turned into an infomercial real quick.

为生命买人寿保险。

Life insurance for life.

是的。

Yes.

而且，我们可以把地球上的动植物带到火星，给这颗星球注入生命，让火星成为第二个有生命的星球，那将很棒。

And, you know, we we can bring the the creatures from, you know, plants and animals from Earth to Mars and breathe life into the planet and and have a second planet with with life, that would be great.

它们自己无法到达那里，你知道的。

They can't bring themselves there, you know.

如果我们不把它们带到火星，那么当太阳膨胀时，它们肯定都会灭绝，那就完了。

So if we don't bring them to Mars, then they will just for sure all die when the sun expands anyway, and then that'll be it.

你觉得是

Do you think is

建造火星文明最困难的方面是什么？

the most difficult aspect of building a civilization on Mars?

改造火星，从工程、财务、人类角度来说，如何让大量的人前往火星并且永远不再返回地球？

Terraforming Mars, like, from engineering perspective, from a financial perspective, human perspective, to get to get a large number of folks there who will never return back to Earth?

不。

No.

他们当然可以返回。

They could certainly return.

有些人会回到地球。

Some will return back to Earth.

他们会选择在那里度过余生。

They will choose to stay there for the rest of their lives.

是的。

Yeah.

很多人会这样。

Many will.

但我们需要那些去火星的宇宙飞船回来。

But we we, you know, we need the spaceships back, like the ones that go to Mars.

我们需要它们回来。

We need them back.

所以如果你愿意，你可以搭便车回来。

So you can hop on if you want, you know.

但这不可能让飞船不回来。

It's it's like but we can't just not have the spaceships come back.

那些东西很昂贵。

Those things are expensive.

我们需要它们回来。

We need them back.

我希望在旅途中能回来。

I'd like to come back during the trip.

我的意思是，你有考虑过改造火星这个方面吗？比如实际建设，你现在是不是太专注于飞船这一部分了，而这对于抵达火星至关重要？

I mean, do you think about the terraforming aspect, like, actually building are you so focused right now on the spaceships part that's so critical to

抵达火星？

get to Mars?

如果我们无法抵达火星，其他一切都无从谈起。

We absolutely if you can't get there, nothing else matters.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，正如我所说，我们不可能以极高的成本到达那里。

So and like I said, you you we can't get there with at some extraordinarily high cost.

我的意思是，目前将一吨物资送到火星表面的成本大约是十亿美元。

I mean, the current cost of, let's say, one ton to the surface of Mars is on the order of a billion dollars.

因为你不仅需要火箭、发射装置和其他一切设备。

So because you don't just need the rocket and the launch and everything.

你还需要隔热罩。

You need, like, heat shield.

你还需要导航系统。

You need, you know, guidance system.

你还需要深空通信系统。

You need deep space communications.

你还需要某种着陆系统。

You need some kind of landing system.

所以，目前粗略估算，每吨物资送到火星表面的成本大约是十亿美元。

So, like, rough approximation would be a billion dollars per ton to the surface of Mars right now.

这显然太昂贵了，无法建立一个自给自足的文明。

This is obviously way too expensive to create a self sustaining civilization.

所以我们需要将其成本降低到

So we need to improve that by

至少降低一千倍。

at least a factor of a thousand.

每吨一百万美元？

A million per ton?

是的。

Yes.

理想情况下，要远低于每吨一百万美元。

Ideally, less than much less than a million ton.

但如果不这样，你必须说：社会能负担得起，或者愿意为火星上的自给自足城市花多少钱？

But if it's not like, it's gotta be you have to say, like, well, how much can society afford to spend or want to just want to spend on a self sustaining city on Mars?

自给自足这一点很重要。

The self sustaining part is important.

关键是，当火星城市即使由于任何原因停止接收来自地球的飞船时仍能生存下去，这个关键门槛就已经被跨越了。

Like, it's just the the key threshold the the grateful will will have been passed when the city on Mars can survive even if the spaceships from Earth stop coming for any reason.

原因是什么并不重要。

It doesn't matter what the reason is.

但如果飞船因为任何原因停止到来，城市会衰亡还是会继续存在？

But if they stop coming for any reason, will it die out or will it not?

只要缺少任何一个关键要素，那就还不算数。

And if there's even one critical ingredient missing, then it still doesn't count.

就像你知道的，如果你在一次漫长的海上航行中，所有东西都备齐了，唯独缺了维生素C，那只是时间问题，你终将死去。

It's like, you know, if you're on a long sea voyage and you've got everything except vitamin c, and it's only a matter of time, you know, you're gonna die.

所以我们一定要让火星城市达到自给自足的状态。

So so we're gonna get Mars a Mars city to the point where it's self sustaining.

我不确定在我有生之年这真的会发生，但我希望至少能看到它获得巨大推动力。

I'm not sure this will really happen in my lifetime, but I I hope to see it at least have a lot of momentum.

那么你可能会问，建立一个自给自足的城市所需的最低吨位是多少？

And and then you could say, okay, what is the minimum tonnage necessary to have a self sustaining city?

关于这一点，存在很多不确定性。

And there's a lot of uncertainty about this.

你可能会说，我不知道。

You could say, like, I don't know.

可能至少需要一百万吨，因为你必须在火星上建立大量的基础设施。

It's probably at least a million tons because you have to set up a lot of infrastructure on on Mars.

正如我所说，要实现自给自足，就不能缺少任何东西，比如你需要半导体工厂。

Like I said, you can't be missing any anything that in order to be self sustaining, you can't be miss like, you need, you know, semiconductor fabs.

你需要铁矿石炼钢厂。

You need iron ore refineries.

你需要很多东西，你知道的。

Like, you need lots of things, you know.

而且火星的环境并不友好。

So and Mars is not super hospitable.

它是相对最不恶劣的行星，但绝对是个需要大修的星球。

It's it's the least inhospitable planet, but it's definitely a fixer upper of a planet.

在地球之外？

Outside of Earth?

是的。

Yes.

地球很不错。

Earth Earth is pretty good.

很简单。

Is, like, easy.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，我们还应该澄清一下是在太阳系内。

And also, I should we should clarify in the solar system.

是的。

Yes.

在太阳系内。

In the solar system.

那里可能有一些不错的度假胜地。

There might be nice, like, vacation spots.

那里可能有一些很棒的行星，但希望渺茫。

There might be some great planets out there, but it's hopeless.

很难到达吗？

Hard to get there?

是的。

Yeah.

简直太难了，这还是最少的说法。

Way way way way way too hard, to say the least.

让我对这一点提出不同看法。

Let me push back on that.

也不是完全反驳，而是一个突然的问题。

Not really a pushback, but a quick curveball of a question.

你之前提到过，物理是第一个出发点。

So you did mention physics as the the first starting point.

所以广义相对论允许虫洞的存在。

So general relativity allows for wormholes.

从技术上讲，它们是可以存在的。

They technically can exist.

你认为人类能否利用虫洞实现超光速旅行？

Do you think those can ever be leveraged by humans to travel faster than the speed of light?

你是说那个虫洞吗？

Well Are you saying The one whole

这一点是有争议的。

thing is is debatable.

目前，我们尚不知道任何能够超越光速的方法。

The the we currently do not know of any means of going faster than the speed of light.

确实有一些关于空间本身的构想。

There there is, like like, to there there are some ideas about having space.

比如，你并不是在空间中以光速移动，而是让空间本身运动，这就相当于扭曲了空间。

Like, so so you're gonna, like, move at the speed of light through through space, but if you can make space itself move, that that that's, like, that that's warping space.

空间本身是可以以超过光速的速度移动的。

Space is is capable of moving faster than the speed of light.

对。

Right.

比如宇宙大爆炸时，宇宙的膨胀速度远远超过了光速。

Like the universe in the Big Bang, universe expanded at much much more than the speed of light by a lot.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果这是可能的，扭曲空间所需的能量将是极其巨大的。

So but the if this is possible, the amount of energy required to dwarf space is so gigantic.

这令人难以想象。

It's boggles the mind.

所以你一直在研究推进技术，火箭推进还有多少创新空间？

So all the work you've done with propulsion, how much innovation is possible with rocket propulsion?

我的意思是，你见识过一切，并且在每个方面都不断进行创新。

Is this I mean, you've seen it all, and you're constantly innovating in every aspect.

有多大可能性？

How much is possible?

比如，你能不能 somehow 提升十倍？

Like, how much can you get 10 x somehow?

在物理学中，有没有什么方法可以显著提高发动机的效率之类的东西？

Is there something in there in physics that you can get significant improvement in terms of efficiency of engines and all those kinds of things?

正如我所说，真正的圣杯是一个完全且快速可重复使用的轨道系统。

Well, as I saying, like, the the really, the holy grail is a a fully and rapidly reusable orbital system.

目前，猎鹰九号是唯一可重复使用的火箭。

So right now, the Falcon nine is the only reusable rocket out there.

但它的助推器会返回并着陆。

But it but the the booster comes back and lands.

我相信你已经看过这些视频了。

I'm sure you've seen the videos.

我们能回收整流罩，但无法回收上面级。

And we get the noseconal fairing back, but we do not get the upper stage back.

这意味着我们建造上面级的最低成本仍然存在。

So that means that we have a minimum cost of of building an upper stage.

你可以把两级火箭想象成两架飞机，一架大的，一架小的。

You can think of, like, a two stage rocket of of sort of, like, two airplanes, like a big airplane and a small airplane.

我们能回收大飞机，但收不回小飞机。

And we get the big airplane back, but not the small airplane.

所以成本仍然很高，你知道，这个上面级至少要一千万美元。

And so it still costs a lot, you know, so that upper stage is, you know, at least $10,000,000.

而且助推器的重复使用程度，还没有达到我们理想的快速完全复用水平，相比之下整流罩的复用更好。

And then the degree of the the booster is not as reused is not as rapidly and completely reusable as we'd like in order of the fairings.

因此，不计间接成本，每次发射的最低边际成本大约在一千五百万到两千万美元之间。

So, you know, our our kind of minimum marginal cost not counting overhead for per flight is on the order of 15 to $20,000,000 maybe.

这已经非常出色了，远优于历史上任何火箭。

So that's that's extremely good for it's by far better than any rocket ever in history.

但通过完全快速的可重复使用技术，我们可以将每次进入轨道的成本降低一百倍。

But with full and rapid reusability, we can reduce the cost per time to orbit by a factor of a 100.

你就想象一下，如果你有一架飞机或者一辆车。

Just think of it like like imagine if you had an aircraft or something or a car.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

如果你每次开车都要买一辆新车，那会非常昂贵。

And if you had to buy a new car every time you went for a drive, it would be very expensive.

这简直太荒谬了。

It'd be silly, frankly.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但事实上，你只需要给车加油或充电，就能让一次出行的成本降低上千倍。

But but you in fact, you just refuel the car or recharge the car and that's makes your trip like, I don't know, a thousand times cheaper.

火箭也是同样的道理。

So it's the same for rockets.

如果你仔细看，制造这种能够进入轨道的复杂机器是非常困难的。

If you look, it's it's very difficult to make this complex machine that can go to orbit.

如果你不能重复使用它，而必须丢弃任何重要部件，成本就会大幅增加。

And so if you cannot reuse it and have to have to throw even any part of any significant part of it away, that massively increases the cost.

因此，理论上，星舰每次发射的成本可能低至一百万，甚至两百万美元左右，并能将超过一百吨的载荷送入轨道。

So, you know, Starship in theory could do a cost per launch of, like, a million, maybe $2,000,000 or something like that and and put over a 100 tons in orbit.

这太疯狂了。

This is crazy.

是的。

Yeah.

这太不可思议了。

So That's incredible.

所以你的意思是，相比某种理论物理学上的突破，实现完全可重复使用才是性价比最高的方式？

So you're saying like it's by far the biggest bang for the buck is to make it fully reusable versus like some kind of brilliant breakthrough in theoretical physics?

不。

No.

不。

No.

根本没有什么了不起的突破。

There's no there's no brilliant break no.

根本不需要，我们就是要让火箭可重复使用。

There's no it just make you we're gonna make the rock reusable.

这是一个极其困难的工程问题。

This is this is an extremely difficult engineering problem.

明白了。

Got

它。

it.

但不需要任何新的物理理论。

But no no new physics is required.

只需要卓越的工程。

Just brilliant engineering.

让我问一个稍微哲学一点的有趣问题。

Let me ask a slightly philosophical fun question.

得问一下。

Gotta ask.

我知道你专注于登陆火星，但一旦我们到了火星，你认为对于早期的人类文明来说，哪种政府形式、经济体系和政治制度会最有效？

I know you're focused on getting to Mars, but once we're there on Mars, what do you what form of government, economic system, political system do you think would work best for an early civilization of humans?

我的意思是，讨论这些话题的有趣之处在于，它也能帮助人们憧憬未来。

Is I mean, the the interesting reason to talk about this stuff, it also make helps people dream about the future.

我知道你非常关注短期的工程梦想，但我觉得，我不知道。

I know you're really focused about the short term engineering dream, but it's like, I don't know.

想象火星上真正存在一个文明，这给人们带来了某种感觉。

There's something about imagining an actual civilization on Mars that gives people Sure.

真的给人们带来了希望。

Really gives people hope.

这将是一个新的边疆，也是重新思考政府本质的机会，就像美国建国时所做的那样。

Well, it would be a new frontier and an opportunity to rethink the whole nature of government just as was done in the creation of The United States.

所以，我建议采用直接民主制，即人们直接对事务进行投票，而不是代议制民主。

So, I mean, I would suggest having direct democracy, like people who vote directly on things as opposed to representative democracy.

民主。

Democracy.

所以我认为代议制民主容易受到特殊利益的影响，以及政治家的操控之类的问题。

So representative democracy, I think, is too subject to a special interest and, you know, a coercion of the politicians and that kind of thing.

所以我建议实行直接民主。

So I I recommend that that there's just direct democracy.

人们直接对法律进行投票。

People vote on laws.

民众亲自对法律进行投票，而且法律必须足够简短，以便人们能够理解。

The population votes on laws themselves, and then the laws must be short enough that people can understand them.

是的。

Yeah.

然后，比如保持民众的充分知情，对所有关于他们所投票事项的信息做到完全透明。

And then, like, keeping a well informed populace, like, really being transparent about all the information about what they're voting for.

绝对透明。

Absolute transparency.

嗯。

Yeah.

而且别搞得像那些饼干提示一样烦人，

And not make it as annoying as those cookies where

我们得同意接受饼干。

we have to accept the cookies.

饼干。

Cookies.

就像总是那样，你知道的，每次点击接受饼干时，总会有点忐忑。

Like always, like, you know, there's, like, always, like, slight amount of trepidation when you click accept cookies.

我觉得，可能有那么一丁点几率，点完会打开通往地狱的传送门之类的东西。

Like, I feel as though there's, like, perhaps, like, like a very tiny chance that it'll open a portal to hell or something like that.

我就是这么想的。

That's exactly how I feel.

为什么他们为什么总想让我同意接受？

Why why do they why why do they keep wanting me to accept it?

他们要这个饼干干什么？

What do they want with this cookie?

好像有人因为点接受饼干而生气了什么的。

Like, somebody got upset with accepting cookies or something somewhere.

我的意思是，谁在乎呢？

I mean, who cares?

一直不停地接受这些饼干真是太烦人了。

Like, it's so annoying to keep keep accepting all these cookies.

对我来说，这只不过是

To me, this is just a

我得说好的，真棒。

a great I have to accept yes.

你拿走我的该死的饼干吧。

You can have my damn cookie.

我不在乎。

I don't care.

随便吧。

Whatever.

你最先从我这里听说的。

You heard it from me on first.

他接受你所有的该死的饼干。

He accepts all your damn cookies.

是的。

Yeah.

然后就开始问我。

And start asking me.

这很烦人。

It's annoying.

是的。

Yeah.

这只是个好主意被糟糕地实施的例子。

It's it's one example of implementation of a good idea done really horribly.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个有着良好初衷的人，比如出于隐私之类的考虑。

It's it's somebody who was like, there's some good intentions of, like, privacy or whatever.

但现在每个人都必须点击接受Cookie，你知道，有数十亿人不得不不断点击接受Cookie，这太烦人了。

But now everyone just has to tick accept cookies and it's not, you know, you have billions of people who have to keep clicking accept cookie and it's super annoying.

然后我们就干脆接受这些该死的Cookie了。

Then we just accept the damn cookie.

没关系。

It's fine.

我觉得，我们目前面临一个根本性问题，因为我们最近没有经历过像世界大战那样的重大事件，当然，我们都不希望有世界大战。

There is like, I think, a fundamental problem that we're because we've not really had a major, like, a world war or something like that in a while, and, obviously, we'd we'd like to not have world wars.

规则和法规缺乏一种净化机制。

The there's not been a cleansing function for rules and regulations.

所以战争确实起到过某种作用，那就是战后会对规则和法规进行一次重置。

So wars did have, you know, some sort of lining in that there would be a a reset on rules and regulations after a war.

所以第一次和第二次世界大战后，规则和制度都经历了巨大的更新。

So World Wars one and two, there were huge resets on rules and regulations.

现在，如果社会没有战争，就没有对规则和制度的清理或垃圾回收机制，那么规则和制度每年都会累积，因为它们是永恒的。

Now as if if the society society does not have a war that and there's no cleansing function or garbage collection for rules and regulations, then rules and regulations will accumulate every year because they're immortal.

虽然人类会死亡，但法律不会。

There's no actual humans die, but the laws don't.

所以我们需要一个针对规则和制度的垃圾回收机制。

So the we we need a garbage collection function for rules and regulations.

它们不应当因为某些规则和制度是出于善意而被永久保留，因为其中一些最终会适得其反。

They should not just be immortal because some of the rules and regulations that are put in place will be counterproductive.

这些规则起初是出于善意制定的，但结果却适得其反。

Done with good intentions, but counterproductive.

有时甚至不是出于善意制定的。

Sometimes not done with good intentions.

所以如果你每年都让规则和制度不断累积，数量越来越多，最终你将什么都做不了。

So if you just if rules and regulations just accumulate every year and you get more and more of them, then eventually you won't be able to do anything.

你就像是格列佛，被成千上万根细绳绑住。

You're just like Gulliver with, you know, tied down by thousands of little strings.

我们在美国，以及几乎所有历史悠久的经济体中都能看到这种情况：监管者和立法者每年都会制定新的规则和法规，却从不花力气去废除它们。

And we we see that in, you know, US and like like, basically, all all economies that have been around for for a while and and regulators and legislators create new rules and regulations every year, but they don't put effort into removing them.

我认为，努力废除规则和法规非常重要。

And I think that's very important that we put effort into removing rules and regulations.

但这变得很困难，因为一些特殊利益群体已经依赖于这些规则和法规，他们对这些规定有既得利益，因此会极力阻止它们被废除。

But it gets tough because you get special interests that then are dependent on like, they they have a, you know, a a vested interest in that whatever rule and regulation, and that they then they fight to not get it removed.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我认为宪法的问题在于，它就像C语言和Java的区别——没有内置的垃圾回收机制。

So it I mean, I guess the problem with the constitution is it's it's kinda like c versus Java because it doesn't have any garbage collection built in.

我觉得应该这样：当你第一次提到垃圾回收这个比喻时，我非常喜欢。

I think there should be I I when you first said that the the metaphor of garbage collection, I love that.

从编程的角度来看。

From a coding standpoint.

从编程的角度来看。

From a coding standpoint.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

如果法律本身内置了一种机制，规定它们在一段时间后自动失效，除非有人公开明确地为它们辩护，那会很有趣。

I it would be interesting if the laws themselves kinda had a built in thing where they kinda die after a while unless somebody explicitly publicly defends them.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，这并不是说必须有人去废除它们，而是它们会自行消亡。

So that that's sort of it's not like somebody has to kill them, they kinda die themselves.

它们会消失。

They disappear.

是的。

Yeah.

我不是要为Java辩护，但你知道，C++，你也可以在Python等语言中实现非常优秀的垃圾回收。

Not to defend Java or anything, but, you know, c plus plus, you know, you you could also have great great garbage collection in Python and so on.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，是的，有些事情需要发生，或者文明的血管就是会随着时间逐渐硬化。

So, yeah, something's good something needs to happen or or just the the civilizations arteries arteries just harden over time.

你越来越难做成事，因为每件事都有规则禁止。

And and you can just get less and less done because there's just a rule against everything.

所以我觉得，比如去火星也好，或者当然对于地球来说也好，我认为应该有一个主动的过程来删除规则和法规，并质疑它们的存在。

So so I think, like, don't know, for Mars or whatever, I'd say or even for, you know, obviously, for Earth as well, like, I think there should be an active process for removing rules and regulations and questioning their existence.

就像我们有一个创建规则和法规的函数，因为规则和法规也可以看作是运作文明的软件或代码行。

Just like, if we've got a function for creating rules and regulations because rules and regulations can also think of as like they're like software or lines of code for operating civilization.

这些就是规则和法规。

That's the rules and regulations.

所以很可能我们不应该只有规则和法规，而是只有代码积累，却没有代码删除。

So it's likely we shouldn't have rules and regulations, but the you have you have code accumulation, but no code removal.

久而久之，它就会变得陈旧臃肿，像垃圾软件一样。

And so it just gets to be become basically archaic bloatware after a while.

这使得事物难以进步。

And and it's just it makes it hard for things to progress.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

也许在火星上，任何一项法律都必须设定失效期限，需要通过主动投票才能继续保留。

Maybe Mars, you'd have, like, an you know, any given law must have a sunset, you know, and and and require active voting to keep restore to keep it up there.

你知道的吗？

You know?

我还应该说，这些只是我的一些建议或想法。

And I I should also say like and these are just, I don't know, recommendations or thoughts.

最终，火星上的人们将决定一切。

Ultimately, it will be up to the people on Mars to decide.

但我认为，废除一项法律应该比制定一项法律更容易，以克服法律的惯性。

But I I think it should be easier to remove a law than to add one because of the just to overcome the inertia of laws.

所以，举个例子，也许需要60%的投票才能让一项法律生效，但只需40%的投票就能废除它。

So maybe it's like, for argument's sake, you need, like, say, 60% vote to have a law take effect, but only a a 40% vote to remove it.

所以

So

让我来举个例子，你最近在Twitter上发了一个梗图，图里有一排小便池，一个人直接从头走到尾。

let me be the guy you you posted a meme on Twitter recently where there's the there's there's like a a row of urinals, a guy just walks all the way across.

然后他跟你聊加密货币。

And he tells you about crypto.

所以所以

So so

听我说，我的意思是，很多时候，我想这甚至可能是字面意义上的。

Listen, I I mean, that's how do we so many times, I think maybe even literally.

是的。

Yeah.

从技术角度来看，智能合约之类的概念还有空间吗？

You think technologically speaking, there's any room for ideas of smart contracts or or so on?

因为你提到了法律。

Because you mentioned laws.

这是将智能合约用于实施政府运作法律的一种有趣的应用方式。

That's an interesting implement use of things like smart contracts to implement the laws by which governments function.

比如，基于以太坊或某种支持智能合约的狗狗币的东西。

Like, something built on Ethereum or maybe a dog coin that enables smart contracts somehow.

我完全不明白这个智能合约是怎么回事。

I never I don't quite understand this whole smart contract thing.

你知道吗？

You know?

我的意思是，所以

I mean So

它是，我

it's I'm

我太笨了，理解不了智能合约。

too dumb to understand smart contracts.

这是个很好的说法。

That's a good line.

我的总体做法是，无论做什么交易或类似的事情，都要确保各方理解清晰。

I mean, my general approach to any kind of, like, deal or whatever is just make sure there's clarity of understanding.

这是最重要的事情。

That's the most important thing.

对。

Right.

而且要让任何交易都尽可能简短、简单，使用平实的语言，确保每个人都明白这就是交易内容。

And and just keep any kind of deal very very short and simple, plain language, and just make sure everyone understands this is the deal.

所以每个人都清楚了吗？

So everyone is it clear?

如果各种情况没有发生，会有什么后果？

And and and what are the consequences if various things don't happen?

但通常，交易——不管是商业交易还是其他——都太长、太复杂，过度法律化，毫无必要。

But usually, deal deals are, you know, business deals or whatever, are way too long and complex and overly lawyered and pointlessly.

你提到狗狗币是人民的货币。

You mentioned that Doge is the the people's coin.

是的。

Yeah.

你说过，SpaceX 可能真的会把狗狗币送上月球。

And you said that you were literally going SpaceX may consider literally putting a Dogecoin on the moon.

你们还在考虑这件事吗？

Is it is this something you're still considering?

也许去火星？

Mars, perhaps?

你觉得我们之前讨论过火星的政治体系，未来狗狗币会不会成为火星的官方货币？

Do you think there's some chance we've talked about political systems on Mars that Dogecoin is the the official currency of Mars at some point in the future?

我认为火星本身需要一种不同的货币，因为光速限制导致无法同步。

Well, I I think Mars itself will need to have a different currency because you can't synchronize due to speed of light Mhmm.

或者不容易同步。

Or not easily.

所以它必须完全独立于地球。

So it must be completely standalone from Earth.

嗯，没错。

Well, yeah.

因为火星在最近距离时，大约有四光分的距离。

Because the the Mars is at closest approach, it's four light minutes away roughly.

而在最远距离时，大约有二十光分，甚至更久。

And then at first approach, it's roughly twenty light minutes away, maybe a little more.

所以你不可能实现同步，你知道吗？如果存在二十分钟的光速延迟，而区块链只有一分钟的确认时间。

So you can't really have something synchronizing, you know, if you got if you got a twenty minute speed of light issue, if it's got a one minute blockchain.

它根本无法正常同步。

It's it's not gonna synchronize properly.

所以火星可能需要一种货币，我不确定火星会不会有加密货币这种东西，但看起来很有可能。

So Mars would need would I I don't know if Mars would have a cryptocurrency as a thing, but probably, seems likely.

但它会是火星上某种本地化的系统。

But it would be some kind of localized thing on Mars.

让你的人民自己决定。

And you let the people decide.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

火星的未来应该由火星人自己决定。

The the future of Mars should be up to the Martians.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为，加密货币是一种有趣的方法，可以减少被称为货币的数据库中的错误。

So but I think the cryptocurrency thing is an interesting approach to reducing the error in the the database that is called money.

你知道，因为PayPal，我对货币在日常实际运作中的本质有相当深入的理解。

You know, I think I have a pretty deep understanding of the of what money actually is on a practical day to day basis because of PayPal.

你知道，我们当时深入其中了。

You know, we really got in deep there.

而目前，从实际角度来看，货币系统实际上是一堆运行着老旧COBOL语言的异构大型机。

And right right now, the money system actually for, you know, practical purposes is is is really a bunch of heterogeneous mainframes running old COBOL.

好的。

Okay.

你是说字面意思吗？

You mean literally?

确实是字面意思。

That's Literally.

这确实就是正在发生的事。

That literally what's happening.

以批处理模式运行。

In batch mode.

好的。

Okay.

以批处理模式运行。

In batch mode.

是的。

Yeah.

那些不得不维护这段代码的可怜家伙们真惨。

Pretty the poor bastards who have to maintain that code.

明白吗？

Okay?

这太痛苦了，真是个麻烦。

That's a that's a pain to that's pain.

连Fortran都不是。

Not even Fortran.

是COBOL。

It's COBOL.

没错。

Yep.

就是COBOL。

It's COBOL.

就像这样，到2021年，银行还在购买大型机并运行着古老的COBOL代码。

It's like and they're still banks are still buying mainframes in 2021 and running ancient COBOL code.

你知道，美联储的系统可能比银行的还要老旧，他们用的也是老旧的COBOL大型机。

And, you know, the the Federal Reserve is like probably even older than the what the banks have and they have an old COBOL mainframe.

所以现在，政府实际上拥有对货币数据库的编辑权限。

And so now the and and so the government effectively has editing privileges on the on the money database.

他们利用这些编辑权限，随时印制更多钱。

And they use those editing privileges to make more money whenever they want.

这增加了货币数据库中的错误。

And this increases the error in the database that is money.

所以我认为，货币应该从信息论的角度来理解。

So if I think money should really be viewed through the lens of information theory.

它就像一个互联网连接一样。

And and so it's you're kinda like like an Internet connection.

比如，带宽是多少？你知道的，总比特率是多少？

Like, what's the bandwidth, you know, total bit rate?

延迟、抖动、丢包，你知道的，网络通信中的错误。

What is the latency, jitter, packet drop, you know, errors errors in network communication.

所以把钱想象成那样，基本上。

So think money like that, basically.

我认为这才是看待它的正确方式。

I think that's probably the right way to think of it.

然后说，从信息论的角度来看，什么样的系统能让经济运行得最好？

And and then say, what system from an information theory standpoint allows an economy to function the best?

加密货币试图减少政府通过稀释货币供应量而给货币带来的错误，这本质上是一种有害的税收形式。

And, you know, crypto is an attempt to reduce the the error in in in money that is contributed by governments diluting the money supply as basically a pernicious pernicious form of taxation.

因此，无论是通过通胀政策，还是像加密货币这样的实际技术，都让我们在交易、财富存储等实际系统方面进入了二十一世纪。

So both policy in terms of with inflation and actual, like, technological cobalt, like cryptocurrency takes us into the twenty first century in terms of the actual systems that allow you to do the transaction, to store wealth, all those kinds of things.

正如我所说，把钱看作信息。

Like I said, just think of money as information.

人们常常认为货币本身具有力量。

People often will think of money as having power in and of itself.

它没有。

It does not.

货币就是信息，它本身并不具有权力。

Money is is information, and it it does not have power in and of itself.

就像你说的，再次运用物理学的思维方式，从极限角度思考问题，是有帮助的。

Like, you know, again, applying the the physics tools of thinking about things in the limit is helpful.

如果你被困在一个热带岛屿上，即使你有一万亿美元，也是无用的，因为没有资源分配可言。

If you are stranded on a tropical island and you have a trillion dollars, it's useless because there's no there's no resource allocation.

货币是资源分配的数据库，但除了你自己之外，没有任何资源可以分配。

Money is a database for resource allocation, but there's no resource to allocate except yourself.

所以货币是无用的。

So money is useless.

如果你被困在荒岛上，没有食物，世界上所有的比特币都无法阻止你饿死。

If you're stranded on a desert Island with no food, you'd all the Bitcoin in the world will not stop you from starving.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，简单来说，把钱看作是跨时间和空间的资源分配数据库。

So so, like, just just think of money as as a database for resource allocation across time and space.

那么，这种数据库或数据系统应该采用什么样的系统、以什么形式存在，才能最有效呢？

And and then what what what system it is what what in what form should that that database or data system what what what would be most effective?

现在，比特币在当前形式下存在一个根本性问题，那就是它的交易吞吐量非常有限。

Now that there's a there is a fundamental issue with, say, Bitcoin in its current form in that it's the transaction volume is very limited.

而且，一笔交易获得充分确认所需的延迟时间太长，远超理想水平。

And the latency it's it's the latency for for a properly confirmed transaction is too is too long, much longer than you'd like.

因此，从交易吞吐量和延迟角度来看，它实际上并不理想。

So it's not it's actually not great from transaction volume standpoint or latency standpoint.

所以，它或许在解决货币数据库问题的某个方面是有用的，比如作为财富储存手段或相对债务的记账工具。

So it is perhaps useful as as to to solve an aspect of the money database problem, which is the sort of store of wealth or an an accounting of relative obligations, I suppose.

但它并不适合作为日常流通的货币。

But it is not useful as a currency, as a day to day currency.

但人们已经提出了不同的技术解决方案，比如闪电网络。

But people have proposed different technological solutions Like lightning.

嗯。

Yeah.

闪电网络以及其上的二层技术。

Lightning network and the layer two technologies on top of that.

我的意思是，这似乎全是一种权衡。

I mean, it's it's all it seems to be all kind of a trade off.

但关键是，不妨想想信息，想想什么样的数据库、什么样的基础设施能实现这一点。

But the point is, it's kind of brilliant to say that just think about an information, think about what kind of database, what kind of infrastructure enables that

就像你在运营一个经济体系，你需要某种东西来实现产品和服务之间高效的价值比例。

exchange like you're operating an economy and you need to have some thing that allows for the efficient to to have efficient value ratios between products and services.

你有海量的产品和服务，你不能仅仅依靠以物易物。

So you got this massive number of products and services, and you need to you can't just barter barter.

那会变得极其繁琐。

It's just like that would be extremely unwieldy.

所以你需要某种东西来提供商品和服务之间的交换比例。

So you need something that gives you the the an a ratio of exchange between goods and services.

然后是那种能让你跨时间转移义务的东西，比如债务。

And and then something that allows you to shift obligations across time, like debt.

债务和股权都是跨时间转移义务的工具。

Debt and equity shift obligations across time.

那么，什么在这方面做得最好呢？

Then what does what what does the best job of that?

我认为狗狗币有一些可取之处，尽管它显然是作为玩笑创建的，因为它实际上比比特币具有高得多的交易处理能力。

Part of the reason why I think there's some merit to Dogecoin, even though it was obviously created as a joke, is that it it actually does have a much higher transaction volume capability than Bitcoin.

而且，你知道，狗狗币的交易成本非常低。

And the, you know, the the the cost of doing a transaction, the the the Dogecoin fee is is very low.

现在，如果你想进行一笔比特币交易，这笔交易的价格非常高。

Like, now, you wanna do a a Bitcoin transaction, the price of doing that transaction is very high.

所以你无法有效地用它来完成大多数事情。

So you could not use it effectively for for most things.

而且它甚至也无法扩展到高交易量。

And nor nor could it even scale to a high volume.

当比特币在2008年左右刚推出时，互联网连接远不如今天这么好。

And and when when Bitcoin was, you know, started, I guess, around 2008 or something like that, the Internet connections were much worse than they are today.

我的意思是，2008年的网络状况差了不止一个数量级。

Like, order of magnitude I mean, it's just the way way worse, you know, in 2008.

所以，在2008年，采用较小的区块大小和较长的同步时间是有道理的。

So so, like, having us, you know, a small block size or whatever is, you know, and and a long synchronization time is made sense in 2008.

但到了2021年，或者往前推十年，这种设置就显得荒谬地低效了。

But to, you know, 2021 or fast forward ten years, it's like it's it's like comically low.

你知道吗？

You know?

我认为，让货币的发行量呈线性增长是有一定价值的。

It's so and I think there's some value to having a linear increase in the amount of currency that is generated.

因为如果一种货币过于通缩，或者说，如果人们预期这种货币的价值会随着时间上涨，就会不愿意花掉它。

So because some amount of the currency you'd like like, if a if a if a if currency is too deflationary or or, like, or should say if if a if a currency is expected to increase in value over time, you there's reluctance to spend it.

因为你心里会想：哦，我还是先持有，别花掉，因为它的稀缺性在随时间增加。

Because you're like, oh, I if I I'll just hold it and not spend it because its scarcity is increasing with time.