Lex Fridman Podcast - #331 – 巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑:如何改革政府、推特、科学和FDA 封面

#331 – 巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑:如何改革政府、推特、科学和FDA

#331 – Balaji Srinivasan: How to Fix Government, Twitter, Science, and the FDA

本集简介

巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑是一位天使投资人、科技创业者、哲学家,也是《网络国家:如何建立一个新国家》的作者。他曾任Coinbase首席技术官和Andreessen Horowitz的普通合伙人。请通过了解我们的赞助商来支持本播客: – Policygenius:https://www.policygenius.com/ – Blinkist:https://blinkist.com/lex 获取25%的高级会员折扣 – Notion:https://notion.com – Onnit:https://lexfridman.com/onnit 获取最高10%折扣 节目链接: 巴拉吉的推特:https://twitter.com/balajis 巴拉吉的网站:https://balajis.com 书籍: 1. 《网络国家》:https://thenetworkstate.com 2. 《声誉与权力》:https://amzn.to/3eyQiF6 3. 《退出、发声与忠诚》:https://amzn.to/3TpuLNP 4. 《像国家一样看待》:https://amzn.to/3MJfvcD 文章: 1. 比特币即文明:https://www.commonsense.news/p/is-bitcoin-anarchy-or-civilization 2. 伟大的协议政治:https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/11/bitcoin-ethereum-cryptocurrency-web3-great-protocol-politics 3. 监管、颠覆与未来:https://bit.ly/3CKY9Ys 4. 有节制的人:https://theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/07/the-measured-man/309018 5. 改变中国的秘密文件:https://npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china 6. 好莱坞遗失的电影:https://reason.com/2000/06/01/hollywoods-missing-movies 7. 《纽约时报》真相运动:https://adweek.com/agencyspy/droga5s-first-big-campaign-for-the-new-york-times-is-all-about-the-truth/126274 播客信息: 播客网站:https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple播客:https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify:https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS:https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube完整版:https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube精选片段:https://youtube.com/lexclips 支持与联系: – 了解上述赞助商,这是支持本播客的最佳方式 – 在Patreon上支持:https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman – 推特:https://twitter.com/lexfridman – Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman – LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman – Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman – Medium:https://medium.com/@lexfridman 大纲: 以下是本集的时间戳。在某些播客播放器中,您可以点击时间戳直接跳转到相应时段。 (00:00)– 引言 (07:23)– 质数迷宫 (33:35)– 政府 (49:51)– 网络国家 (59:55)– 化名经济 (1:23:41)– 退出 (1:38:23)– 建立网络国家 (2:26:09)– 维基百科 (3:03:40)– 修复科学 (3:30:08)– 修复FDA (5:01:16)– 延长寿命 (5:20:14)– 唐纳德·特朗普被社交媒体封禁 (5:49:32)– 战争 (5:56:41)– 审查制度 (6:10:40)– 社交媒体 (6:26:56)– 唤醒主义与共产主义 (6:45:44)– 加密货币 (7:03:17)– 人工智能、增强现实与虚拟现实 (7:15:15)– 给年轻人的建议 (7:48:10)– 规制逻辑

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

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以下是与巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑的对话,他是一位天使投资人、科技创业者、哲学家,也是《网络国家:如何创建一个新国家》的作者。

The following is a conversation with Balaji Srinivasan, an angel investor, tech founder, philosopher, and author of The Network State, How to Start a New Country.

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他曾任Coinbase的首席技术官以及安德森·霍洛维茨公司的普通合伙人。

He was formerly the CTO of Coinbase and general partner at Andreessen Horowitz.

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这场对话时长超过七小时。

This conversation is over seven hours.

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对一些人来说,这太长了。

For some folks, that's too long.

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对另一些人来说,又太短了。

For some, too short.

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对一些人来说,just write(直接写吧)。

For some, just write.

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书中提供了章节时间戳。

There are chapter time stamps.

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还有精选片段,你可以跳着看;或者像我一样,对于喜欢的播客和有声书,你可以坐下来,和心爱的人、宠物,或享用一些饮品食物——甚至三者兼有——放松身心,从头到尾享受这段旅程。

There are clips, so you can jump around or, like I prefer to do with podcasts and audiobooks I enjoy, you can sit down, relax with a loved human, animal, or consumable substance, or all three if you like, and enjoy the ride from start to finish.

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巴拉吉是一个令人着迷的思想家,他深入思考这个世界,以及我们如何能够设计它,以最大限度地提升人类在这颗有趣的小星球上繁荣发展的可能性。

Balaji is a fascinating mind who thinks deeply about this world and how we might be able to engineer it in order to maximize the possibility that humanity flourishes on this fun little planet of ours.

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另外,你可能会注意到,在这次对话中我的眼睛是红的,这是练柔术造成的。

Also, you may notice that in this conversation my eye is red, that's from jujitsu.

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而且,如果我可以这么说的话,这也是源于充实的人生。

And also, if I may say so, from a life well lived.

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现在简要提及一下每个赞助商。

And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor.

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请在简介中查看他们。

Check them out in the description.

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这是支持这个播客的最佳方式。

It's the best way to support this podcast.

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我们有Policygenius提供人寿保险,Blinkist提供非虚构类读物,Notion用于团队协作,Onnit提供营养补充剂。

We got Policygenius for life insurance, Blinkist for nonfiction, Notion for team collaboration, and Onnit for supplements.

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明智选择吧,朋友们。

Choose wisely, my friends.

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现在进入完整的广告播报。

And now onto the full ad reads.

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和往常一样,中间没有广告。

As always, no ads in the middle.

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我努力让这些内容有趣,但如果你跳过了,请依然去了解一下我们的赞助商。

I try to make this interesting, but if you skip them, please still check out our sponsors.

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我喜欢他们的产品。

I enjoy their stuff.

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也许你也会喜欢。

Maybe you will too.

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本节目由Policygenius赞助,这是一个寻找和购买保险的平台。

This show is brought to you by Policygenius, a marketplace for finding and buying insurance.

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这基本上是对人寿保险的一种现代诠释,而对我来说,人寿保险一直是一件非常有趣的事情。

It's basically a modern take on life insurance, and life insurance to me was always a fascinating thing.

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我认为很多人虽然意识到自己和所爱之人的死亡可能性,却并未真正深入地意识到这一点。

I think a lot of people live life kind of aware of their mortality and the mortality of those they love, but not really deeply aware.

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当然,从表面上看,你可以为自己的死亡做好规划。

Of course, there is a surface layer at which you could plan for your own mortality.

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这就是人寿保险的用处,但你可以更深入地思考它。

That's where life insurance comes in, but you can really deeply contemplate it.

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这正是斯多葛学派所倡导的。

That's something that the stoics espoused.

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每天都要认真冥想自己的死亡。

Really meditate on your death every day.

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人类心灵感知时间的方式,通过冥想死亡这一过程变得更加清晰。

There's something about the way that the human mind perceives time that is made more clear through the process of meditating in your mortality.

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某种意义上,对孩子般未知的恐惧,会转化为对我们、你、我与自然融为一体的认可。

Somehow, the childlike fear of the unknown turns into the acceptance of us, of you, of me being one with nature.

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是的。

Yeah.

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这真的很有趣。

It's really interesting.

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但确实如此。

But yeah.

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第一步是真正做好明智的财务规划,而人寿保险是其中的一部分。

Step one of that is to actually do all the wise financial planning, and life insurance is part of that.

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通过Policygenius,你可以找到每月低至17美元、保额50万美元的人寿保险。

With Policygenius, you can find life insurance policies that start at $17 per month for $500,000 of coverage.

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前往policygenius.com或点击描述中的链接,获取免费的人寿保险报价,看看你能节省多少。

Head to policygenius.com or click the link in the description to get your free life insurance quotes and see how much you could save.

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那就是policygenius.com。

That's policygenius.com.

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本节目还由Blinkist赞助,这是我最爱的学习新知识的应用程序。

This show is also brought to you by Blinkist, my favorite app for learning new things.

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Blinkist将数千本非虚构类书籍的核心思想浓缩成15分钟的文本或音频内容。

Blinkist takes key ideas from thousands of non fiction books and condenses them down into fifteen minutes that you can read or listen to.

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即使是我读过的书,通过Blinkist提炼出的关键见解,也常常让我获得不同的视角,很多时候甚至是更深刻的领悟。

It's kind of amazing that even for the books I've read, going through the way that Blinkist condenses down the key insights on the book actually gives me a different perspective, in many ways a deeper perspective on the book.

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我强烈推荐,无论你是先看Blinkist再读原著,还是先读原著再看Blinkist,这两种方式都能让你对这本书有更深入的理解。

I I do highly recommend that whether you look at Blinkist first and then read the book after or read the book and look at Blinkist after, I think both of those really give you a deep understanding of the book.

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如果你对此感兴趣的话。

If that's something you're interested in.

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如果你时间不多,只想大致了解这本书讲什么,那就直接用Blinkist吧。

If you don't have much time and you really just want to get a sense of what the book is about, then just go with Blinkist.

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我强烈推荐。

I highly recommend it.

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显然,你不可能读完所有这些书。

Obviously, you do not have time to read all of these books.

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所以很多这类书都已成为公共讨论的一部分,你至少应该了解它们所探讨的见解。

So a lot of these books are part of the sort of public discourse, so you should be at least aware of the insights they're exploring.

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如果你意识到这是自己知识体系中的一个空白,并希望填补它,那你可以随时去读完整的原著。

And if you understand that to be a gap in your knowledge that you would like to alleviate, then you can always go and read the full book.

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但Blinkist绝对是个绝佳的起点。

But Blinkist is a heck of a good start.

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你可以在 blinkist.com/lex 上领取专属优惠以获得折扣。

You can claim a special offer for savings at blinkist.com/lex.

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本节目还由 Notion 赞助,这是一款笔记与团队协作工具。

This show is also brought to you by Notion, a note taking and team collaboration tool.

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它是一个集中的、可自定义且功能强大的工作平台,能够根据任何团队的需求进行定制。

It's one central, customizable, and powerful workplace that can be tailored to fit any team.

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显然,如果你查看各种生产力论坛和 Stack Exchange,Notion 会一再被推荐为首选的笔记工具。

Obviously, if you look around the the productivity forums and stack exchange, Notion is gonna show up time and time again as the recommended note taking tool.

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许多前沿的生产力专家和人士都在使用 Notion,但这并不是他们希望我在这里强调的重点。

A lot of sort of cutting edge productivity gurus and folks use Notion, but that's not what they want me to emphasize here.

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他们真正想强调的是,Notion 也适用于团队,无论是初创公司、企业还是任何类型的团队。

They really wanna emphasize that it's also for teams, whether that's a startup or business or any kind of team.

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它在协作方面非常出色。

It's good for it's great for collaboration.

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它就像一套完整的操作系统,能够支持公司快速发展过程中的方方面面。

It's like a full on operating system for running every aspect to your company as it grows quickly.

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了解更多并免费开始使用 notion.com。

Learn more and get started for free at notion.com.

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本集节目还由Onnit赞助,这是一家营养补充剂和健身公司,生产Alpha Brain这种神经增强剂,有助于支持记忆力、思维速度和专注力。

This episode is also brought to you by Onnit, a nutrition supplement and fitness company that make alpha brain, a nootropic that helps support memory, mental speed, and focus.

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当我需要大幅提升专注力时,我会偶尔服用一次。

I take it every once in a while when I need a super boost for my focus.

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所以我要说的是,早晨的深度工作时段——首先,我会以一句座右铭开始一天,然后当我想象接下来的一天,并开始带着一杯咖啡投入工作时——首先是喝一些含电解质的水,也就是Element,然后喝咖啡,接着坐到电脑前。

So I would say the deep work sessions in the morning well, first of all, I start the day with a mantra, but then when I visualize the rest of the day and I start to take on the day with a cup of coffee, well, first first some water with electrolytes, so with Element, and then coffee, and then I sit behind the computer.

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我常常更喜欢处理有难度的编程任务。

Oftentimes, I prefer a difficult programming task.

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我的早晨思维似乎更偏爱编程中的设计型思考和设计挑战。

There's something about my morning mind that prefers the design type of thinking, the design challenges of programming.

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因此,在那段时间里,我通常不需要提神补充。

So during that time, usually, I don't need a boost.

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我觉得我的思维状态很顺畅,除非我睡得很少,但即使那样,我也已经准备好投入工作了。

I think my ride in my mind, unless I I didn't sleep a lot, but even in that case, I I'm just ready to go.

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但在两三个小时之后,如果我还在处理非常困难的事情,这时候补充一下精力真的会有帮助。

But in the later, sort of like two, three, four hours in, then it can really help to have a to have a boost if I'm still working on something very difficult.

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那就是我会服用Alpha Brain的时候。

That's when I'll take an alpha brain.

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如果你访问lexfreedman.com/onit,可以享受特别折扣。

You can get a special discount on it if you go to lexfreedman.com/onit.

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这是Lex Fridman播客。

This is the Lex Fridman podcast.

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为了支持我们,请查看简介中的赞助商信息。

To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.

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现在,亲爱的朋友们,有请Balaji Srinivasan。

And now, dear friends, here's Balaji Srinivasan.

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在你的信仰体系核心,有一个你称之为‘质数迷宫’的东西。

At the core of your belief system is something you call the prime number maze.

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我很好奇。

I'm curious.

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我很好奇。

I'm curious.

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我们得从这里开始。

We gotta we gotta start there.

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当然。

Sure.

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如果我们能从任何地方开始,那就从数学开始吧。

If we can start anywhere, it's with mathematics.

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我们开始吧。

Let's go.

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好的。

Alright.

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太好了。

Great.

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老鼠可以被训练成在迷宫中每遇到一个偶数或每第三个数字就转弯,以获得奶酪。

A rat can be trained to turn at every even number or every third number in a maze to to get some cheese.

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但显然,它无法被训练成在质数处转弯,比如二、三、五、七,然后是十一,以此类推。

But, evidently, it can't be trained to turn at prime numbers, two, three, five, seven, and then 11, and so on and so forth.

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这太抽象了。

That's just too abstract.

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坦白说,如果大多数人类被丢进一个质数迷宫,他们可能也搞不清楚规则。

And frankly, if most humans were dropped into a prime number maze, they probably wouldn't be able to figure it out either.

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你知道,他们得开始数数之类的。

You know, they'd have to start counting and so on.

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实际上,要弄清楚转弯的规则会相当困难。

Actually, it'd be pretty difficult to figure out what the the turning rule was.

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但这个规则其实非常简单。

Yet the rule is actually very simple.

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所以我经常思考的是:在生活中,我们有多少人就像这些老鼠一样,被困在质数迷宫里?

And so the thing I think about a lot is just how many patterns in life are we just like these rats and we're trapped in a prime number maze?

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如果我们能多一点思考,多一点认知能力,无论是通过脑机接口还是更先进的物理知识,我们就能看透那个质数镜像的下一步。

And if we had just a little bit more cogitation, if we had a little bit more cognitive ability, a little bit more whether it's brain machine interface or just better physics, we could just figure out the next step in that primary mirror image.

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我们就能直接看到它。

We could just see it.

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我们就能直接看到这个网格。

We could just see the grid.

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这就是我一直在思考的问题。

And that's what I think about.

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这正是推动我的一大动力:弄清楚我们如何才能真正构想并理解我们所生活的那个原始迷宫。

That's a big thing that drives me, is figuring out how do we can actually conceive, understand that primary maze that we're living in.

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所以,要弄清楚哪些模式复杂到超出了人类认知的极限。

So understand which patterns are just complex enough that they are beyond the limit of human cognition.

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是的。

Yes.

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你对此怎么看?

And what do you make of that?

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人类认知的极限是一种特性还是一个缺陷?

Are the limits of human cognition a feature or a bug?

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我觉得大部分时候是个缺陷。

I think mostly a bug.

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我钦佩罗曼诺·金。

I admire Romano Jin.

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我钦佩,你知道的,费曼。

I admire, you know, Feynman.

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我钦佩那些伟大的数学家和物理学家,他们能够看到别人看不到的东西。

I admire these great mathematicians and physicists who were just able to see things that others couldn't.

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仅仅通过写下来,你知道的,这就是一个巨大的进步。

And just by writing it down, you know, that's that's a leap forward.

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人们常说,重要的不是想法,而是执行,但那是针对琐碎的想法;对于伟大的想法,比如麦克斯韦方程、牛顿定律、量子电动力学,或者黎曼的一些恒等式来说,情况不同。

You know, people talk about it's not the idea, it's execution, but that's for trivial ideas, for great ideas, for Maxwell's equations or Newton's laws or quantum electrodynamics or some of Riemannian's identities.

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这确实推动了我们的进步,尤其是当你能够验证它们,却还不明白它们为何有效的时候。

That really does bring us forward, especially when you can check them and you don't know how they work.

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对吧?

Right?

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你有现象层面的描述,但缺乏其背后的理论。

You you have the phenomenological, but you don't have the theory underneath it.

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这会推动理论的发展,以弄清楚为什么这个现象实际上有效。

And then that stimulates the advancement of theory to figure out why is this thing actually working.

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这实际上就是统计力学部分起源的方式——人们最初只是在研究如何让蒸汽机等设备运行,然后从中抽象出了热力学等原理。

That's actually you know, stat mech arose in part from the kind of phenomenological studies that were basically being done where people are just getting steam engines and so on to work, and then they kind of abstracted out thermodynamics and so on from that.

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所以是实践领先于理论,而不是相反。

So the practice led the theory rather than vice versa.

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某种程度上,神经网络现在也正在发生类似的情况,你也很清楚。

To some extent, that's happening in neural networks now as you're aware.

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我认为,只要某种东西是真实有效的,即使我们还不明白它为何如此,这依然令人惊叹,并且推动我们前进。

And I think that's so just something that's true and that works, you know, if we don't know yet, that's amazing, and it pulls us forward.

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所以,我认为这些局限性更像是一个bug,而不是一个特性。

So I I do think that the limits are are more of a bug than a feature.

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人类是否永远无法理解关于我们宇宙、关于宇宙的理论或实践的某些东西?

Is there something that humans will never be able to figure out about our universe, about the theory, about the practice of our universe?

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是的

Yeah.

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人们通常会引用哥德尔的不完备性来回答这样的问题。

People will typically quote Gerdell's incompleteness with for such a question.

Speaker 1

确实有一些事情是被证明不可知或不可证的,但我认为你通常可以获得一个近似解。

And, there are things that are provably unknowable or provably unprovable, but I think you can often get an approximate solution.

Speaker 1

希尔伯特,你知道的,希尔伯特的问题,比如‘我们必将知道,我们必须知道’。

You Hilbert you know, Hilbert's problems like we will know, we must know.

Speaker 1

至少我们应该知道我们无法知道。

At least we should know that we can't know.

Speaker 1

努力去获得至少一个近似解。

Push to get at least an approximate solution.

Speaker 1

努力去认识到我们无法知道。

Push to know that we can't know.

Speaker 1

至少我们能将黑暗推后一些,从而照亮了智力宇宙的这一角。

At least we push back that darkness enough so that we have lit up that corner of the intellectual universe.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

让我们稍微岔开话题,探讨一下我原本没料到会涉及的内容——简要谈谈现实的本质。

Let's actually take a bit of a tangent and explore a bit in a way that I did not expect we would, but let's talk about the nature of reality briefly.

Speaker 0

我不知道你是否熟悉唐·霍夫曼的研究。

I don't know if you're familiar with the work of Don Hoffman.

Speaker 1

不,我不了解。

No.

Speaker 1

我也不了解。

I don't.

Speaker 1

我知道罗杰·彭罗斯有一套《现实之路》系列,从基础物理讲到我们目前已知的一切。

I know Roger Penrose has, like, his road to reality series for, like, basic physics getting up to everything we know.

Speaker 1

不过你继续说吧。

But go ahead.

Speaker 1

告诉我吧,这甚至更离奇。

Tell me It's even wilder.

Speaker 1

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 0

在现代物理学中,我们开始探讨什么是基本的,什么是涌现的,关于我们这个美丽的宇宙,有许多人认为我们所熟知的四维时空是涌现的。

In modern physics, we start the question of what is fundamental and what is emergent in this beautiful universe of ours, and there's a bunch of folks who think that space time as we know it, the four dimensional space is emergent.

Speaker 0

它并非宇宙物理学的基本组成部分。

It's not fundamental to the physics of the universe.

Speaker 0

同样,许多人认为——我认为肖恩·卡罗尔就是其中之一——我们所体验的时间本身也是涌现的。

And the same, many argue, I think Sean Carroll is one of them, is that time itself, the way we experience it is also emergent.

Speaker 0

它并非宇宙运行方式的基本组成部分。

It's not fundamental to the way our universe works.

Speaker 0

无论如何,这些都是专业术语。

Anyway, those are the technical term.

Speaker 0

抱歉刚才说了脏话。

I apologize for swearing.

Speaker 0

这些就是现代物理学中的烧脑概念。

Those are the mind fucks of modern physics.

Speaker 0

但如果我们沿着这条路继续走下去,就会遇到唐纳德·霍夫曼这样的人,他从进化论的角度提出,我们用眼睛所感知的现实,不仅是对客观现实的抽象,而且实际上是完全脱节的。

But if we stroll along that road further, we get somebody like Donald Hoffman, who makes the evolutionary case that the reality we perceive with our eyes is not only an abstraction of objective reality, but it's actually completely detached.

Speaker 0

我们本质上生活在一个视频游戏中,这个虚拟世界对所有人类都保持一致,但它与物理现实毫无关联。

We're in a video game, essentially, that's consistent between each consistent for all humans, but it doesn't it's not at all connected to physical reality.

Speaker 0

所以,这是一种幻觉。

So it's it's an illusion.

Speaker 1

这是模拟假说的一种版本吗?

Version of the simulation hypothesis?

Speaker 1

这是他的观点吗?

Is that his In

Speaker 0

在非常遥远的意义上是这样,但模拟假说认为现实具有某种计算性质,并且存在某种程序员创造了这个现实等等。

a very distant way, but the simulation says that there's a sort of computational nature to reality, and then there's a kinda a programmer that creates this reality and so on.

Speaker 0

现在他指出,我们人类的大脑能够感知环境,而进化从地球上的原始生命逐步发展出复杂生命,塑造出一种根本不需要直接感知现实的大脑。

Now he's he says that we humans have a brain that is able to perceive the environment, and evolution is produced from primitive life to complex life on Earth, produce the kind of brain that doesn't at all need to sense the reality directly.

Speaker 0

所以,根据唐纳德·霍夫曼的说法,这张桌子根本不存在。

So, like, this table, according to Donald Hoffman, is not there.

Speaker 1

嗯,所以

Well, so

Speaker 0

不只是作为一种抽象。

Like, not not just as an abstraction.

Speaker 0

我们感知不到构成桌子的分子,但这一切都是假的。

Like, we don't sense the molecules that make up the table, but all of this is fake.

Speaker 1

有意思。

Interesting.

Speaker 1

所以,你知道,我更倾向于硬科学的人。

So, you know, I I tend to be more of a hard science person.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

就此而言,人们经常谈论质性。

And so just on that, people talk about qualia.

Speaker 1

你对绿色的感知和我对绿色的感知不同吗?

Is your perception of green different from my perception of green?

Speaker 1

我对这一点的反驳是,我们对光谱有一定的了解,并且可以制造人工眼睛。

And my counterargument on that is, well, we know something about spectrum of light, and we can build artificial eyes.

Speaker 1

如果我们能制造人工眼睛——我们确实可以,虽然它们并不完美,但你确实能做到。

And if we can build artificial eyes, which we can, they're not amazing, but you can actually that.

Speaker 1

你可以制造人工耳朵等等。

You can build artificial ears and so on.

Speaker 1

显然,我们也能为摄像头之类的东西制造录音设备。

Obviously, can build recording devices for cameras and things like that.

Speaker 1

从操作层面来看,你所谓的‘感知绿色’这个概念——你看到的绿色其实是紫色,而我看到的绿色是绿色,或者我称之为绿色的东西——似乎站不住脚,因为我们确实能围绕它进行工程实践。

Well, operationally, the whole concept of your perception of green, you see green as purple, I see green as green, or what I call green, doesn't seem to add up because it does seem like we can do engineering around it.

Speaker 1

霍夫曼的观点,我能理解为什么人们更广泛地谈论模拟假说,因为就像很多人提到的,数学出人意料地擅长描述世界。

The Hoffman thing, I get why people more broadly will talk about a simulation hypothesis because, you know, it's like and many others have talked about how math is surprisingly useful to describe the world.

Speaker 1

你看,非常简单的方程式就能产生复杂的现象。

You know, like very simple equations give rise to these complex phenomena.

Speaker 1

沃尔弗拉姆也从另一个角度,通过细胞自动机理论提出了类似的观点。

Wolfram is also on this from from a different angle with the cellular automata stuff.

Speaker 1

但它的效果如此之好,简直让人怀疑。

But It's almost suspicious how well it works.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

但另一方面,我们仍然身处质数的迷宫之中。

But on the other hand, it's like, you know, it it is yet we're still also in a prime number maze.

Speaker 1

你知道,有些事情我们就是不明白。

You know, there's things we just don't understand.

Speaker 1

没错。

And Right.

Speaker 1

你知道,所以

You know, so

Speaker 0

此外,在非质数的限制范围内,我们发现数学依然极其有效,甚至出人意料地有效。

Also, within the constraints of the non prime numbers, we find math to be extremely effective, surprisingly effective.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 1

所以,也许我们现有的数学能帮我们应对类似偶数和奇数的转折,但还有一些我们尚未掌握的、更复杂的数学或规则,用于处理其他部分。

So maybe maybe the math we have gets us through the equivalent of the even turns and the odd turns, but there's math we don't yet have that is more complex or more complex rules for other parts.

Speaker 0

只是我们所有年龄段都像老鼠一样。

Just play all our age or all just rats and

Speaker 1

偶尔。

occasionally.

Speaker 1

我知道这变得非常抽象,但你知道,物理学中还有很多未解之谜。

I know that gets, like, very abstract, but, you know, there are unsolved problems in in physics.

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know?

Speaker 1

比如,在凝聚态物理领域,有很多有趣的现象正在发生。

Like, condensed matter space, there's a lot of interesting stuff happening.

Speaker 1

我的记忆可能有点过时了,比如空化发光这类现象,我们还不完全清楚它们的工作原理。

My recollection, I may be, you know, out of date on this, like, things like sonoluminescence, we don't know exactly how they work.

Speaker 1

有时候,那些处于物理学边缘的现象,比如在19世纪末,我认为是卢瑟福之类的科学家曾说,基本上所有物理学都已被发现等等,但那显然发生在量子力学之前。

And sometimes those things that are, like, at the edges of physics, you know, in the late eighteen hundreds, I think Rutherford somebody I think it was Rutherford said, you know, basically all physics is being discovered, etcetera, and that was obviously before quantum mechanics.

Speaker 1

你知道,当时人们正在研究巴尔末系和帕邢系,观察到氢光谱中这种奇怪的现象,发现它是量子化的,这最终导致了一系列经验性观测,进而催生了量子力学及其后续发展。

You know, that that sort of edge case people are looking at the Balmer and the Passion series and seeing, you know, this weird thing with hydrogen spectrum, and it was quantized, and that led to the sort of phenomenological set of observations that led to quantum mechanics and everything.

Speaker 1

有时候我觉得UAP(不明飞行物)可能也是如此。

And sometimes I think the UAP stuff might be like that.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

人们一看到UAP——也就是不明空中现象,就立刻想到外星人。

People immediately go to aliens for UAP, like the unidentified aerial phenomena.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

实际上,关于这个话题已经有不少令人惊讶的资料了。

And people have been there's surprising amount of stuff out there on this.

Speaker 1

英国已经解密了大量相关材料。

The UK has declassified a bunch of material.

Speaker 1

你知道,哈里·里德作为参议员曾谈论过这件事。

You know, Harry Reid as a sender has talked about this.

Speaker 1

这显然不是一件明显带有政治色彩的事情,这很好。

It's not an obviously it's not an obviously political thing, is good.

Speaker 1

那里真的有什么事情正在发生吗?

It's something that is is there something happening there?

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

长期以来,人们一直认为UAP现象是美国的一种反宣传手段,目的是掩盖他们用于侦察苏联的新式间谍飞机,让任何谈论这些飞机的人显得疯狂或歇斯底里。

And people had thought for a long time that the UAP thing was a, like, American kind of counter propaganda to cover up their new spy planes that were spying over the Soviet Union to make anybody who talked about them seem crazy and hysterical or whatever.

Speaker 1

但如果UAP现象是真实的,它可能是某种大气现象,比如极光,只是我们还不了解的一些现象。

But if the UAP thing is real, it could be atmospheric phenomena like, you know, like the aurora borealis or the northern lights, but some things we don't understand.

Speaker 1

它也可能类似于巴尔末和帕邢系列,也就是量子力学出现前对发射光谱的观测。

It could be something like the the bomber and passion series, you know, which were the observations of emission spectra before quantum mechanics.

Speaker 1

所以,这提供了一个另一种可能性,既不是不存在,也不是小绿人。

So that's like another option as opposed to doesn't exist or little green men.

Speaker 1

这可能是我们尚未理解的物理学。

It could be physics we don't understand yet.

Speaker 1

这是一种可能。

That's one possible.

Speaker 0

你认为外星文明存在吗?

Do you think there's alien civilizations out there?

Speaker 1

有很多人已经就此写过和讨论过。

So there's a lot of folks who have kind of written and talked about this.

Speaker 1

比如德雷克方程,就是把所有概率相乘。

There's, you know, the Drake equation, which is like, multiplying all the probabilities together.

Speaker 1

还有更复杂的观点,比如‘黑暗森林’理论,认为如果宇宙像一片黑暗森林,那我们就是那些没有隐藏自己存在的傻瓜。

There's perhaps more sophisticated takes like the the dark forest, which says that if the universe is like a dark forest, we're the dumb ones that aren't hiding our presence.

Speaker 1

我看过一个计算,虽然我自己没有复现过,但它基本上指出,认为其他文明已经观测到我们的假设是错误的,因为当从地球发出的电磁辐射形成一个球形半径时,随着这个球体越来越大,其中的能量密度却越来越小。

There's one calculation I saw, and I haven't reproduced it myself, but basically says that the assumption that other civilizations have seen ours is wrong because when you have a spherical radius for the electronic magnetic radiation that's leaving our planet, as that sphere gets larger and larger, it gets smaller and smaller amounts of energy.

Speaker 1

你离得越远,就得不到足够的光子或其他东西来实际探测到它。

You get farther out, you're not getting enough photons or what have you to actually detect it.

Speaker 1

你知道,我不确定。

You know, I don't know.

Speaker 1

我其实没有深入研究过背后的数学,但我记得看过这个论点。

I actually haven't looked into the math behind it, but I remember remember seeing that argument.

Speaker 1

所以,实际上,当超出一定数量的光年时,信号可能变得如此弥散,以至于外星文明无法探测到。

So actually, it is possible that it's so diffuse when you go past a certain, you know, number of light years out that people, you know, that that an alien civilization wouldn't be able to detect it.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这是另一个论点吗?

That's that's another argument?

Speaker 0

这更多是关于来自我们的信号,而不是来自他们的信号,是的。

That's more basically about signals from them, from us Yeah.

Speaker 0

要让信号足够强,才能从噪声中分辨出来。

To be able to signals colliding enough to find the signal from the noise.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 1

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

智能信号。

Intelligent signal.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

汉森的噪音。

Hansen the noise.

Speaker 1

汉森写了一篇名为《贪婪外星人》的文章。

Hansen has an article called Grabby Aliens.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

你看过他的东西吗?

Have you seen his thing?

Speaker 1

看过。

Yes.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

所以他上过这个播客。

And so there's He's been on this podcast.

Speaker 1

哦,太好了。

Oh, great.

Speaker 0

他非常聪明。

He's brilliant.

Speaker 1

我喜欢他。

I like him.

Speaker 1

他以有趣的方式推动着各种界限。

He he pushes, you know, boundaries in interesting ways.

Speaker 0

在各个方面。

In every ways.

Speaker 0

在所有方面。

In all of the ways.

Speaker 1

在所有方面。

In all the ways.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

我总体上很喜欢他。

I I I like him overall.

Speaker 1

他是,你知道的,他是NASA电视的安迪。

He's he's, you know, he he he's a NASA TV, Andy.

Speaker 0

贪心的外星人?

Grabby Aliens?

Speaker 0

所以他有一个有趣的想法,认为文明会迅速学会接近光速旅行。

So he he has he has this interesting idea that the civilizations quickly learn how to travel close to the speed of light.

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

所以,在他们到来之前,我们是看不到他们的。

So we're not gonna see them until they're here.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

这是有可能的。

That's possible.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,有一个我们至今尚未解决的谜题,也就是在实验室中实现生命起源。

I mean, one of the things is so here's, for example, a mystery that we haven't yet done, right, which or we haven't really figured out yet, which is abiogenesis in the lab.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

我们已经做了很多工作,比如展示大分子相互结合,证明所谓的RNA世界,以及在实验室中实现从非生命到生命的演化过程。

We've done lots of things where we you've got you can show macromolecules binding to each other, you can show evidence for the so called RNA world, abiogenesis to go from non life to life in the lab.

Speaker 1

当然,你可以通过细菌明显地展示微进化,对它们进行人工选择。

You can show microevolution obviously with bacteria you can do artificial selection on them.

Speaker 1

许多关于生命起源的基本生化方面已经被确立。

Lots of other aspects of fundamental biochemistry origins of life stuff have been established.

Speaker 1

关于原始环境以及氮和碳如何结合形成RNA世界这一初始假说,有很多合理的论证。

There's lot of plausibility arguments about the primitive environment and nitrogens and carbons snapping together to get the RNA world as the initial hypothesis.

Speaker 1

但据我所知,我们还没有真正观察到生命从非生命中自然产生的过程。

But to my knowledge at least, we haven't actually seen abiogenesis demonstrated.

Speaker 1

现在有一种观点认为,你需要一个极其庞大的系统,包含大量不同的复制体,这一过程才会发生。

Now one argument is you need just this massive world with so many different reps before that actually happens.

Speaker 1

一种可能性是,如果我们能对分子之间的碰撞进行原子级别的模拟,或许在某个模拟中可以找到一条可重复通向生命起源的路径,然后在实验室中复制它。

And one possibility is if we could do atomic level simulations of molecules bouncing against each other, it's possible that in some simulation we could find a path, a reproducible path to abiogenesis, and then just replicate that in the lab.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

我不确定。

I I don't know.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

但在我看来,这似乎仍然是一个我们尚未完全理解的谜题,就像质数迷宫一样。

But that seems to me to be like a mystery that we still don't fully understand, like an example of the prime number maze.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

最令人着迷的谜题之一。

One of the most fascinating mysteries.

Speaker 1

最重要的谜题之一。

One of the most important.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yep.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

而且同样地,可能有一位生物化学家会说,巴拉吉,你还不知道在生命起源领域发生的x、y和z事情。

And and again, there may be some biochemist who's like, Balaji, didn't know about x y and z that happened in the abiogenesis field.

Speaker 1

我坦率地承认,我并不像你说的那样了解这个。

I I freely confess I'm not like, you know, on it.

Speaker 1

我最后记得看它的时候是

The last thing I remember looking at it is

Speaker 0

这是什么意思?

What does mean?

Speaker 1

就是到那一刻为止。

Like up to the moment.

Speaker 0

哦,不错。

Oh, nice.

Speaker 0

这是个好词。

That's a nice word.

Speaker 0

这真是个‘是的’。

That's a Yeah.

Speaker 1

我可能发音错了,但没错。

I'm probably mispronouncing it, but Yeah.

Speaker 0

我们会在后期制作中加入‘Sure’。

We'll edit it in post to Sure.

Speaker 0

用AI正确发音。

Pronounce it correctly with AI.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我们会我们会

We'll we'll

Speaker 0

复制你的声音,它就会完美准确地发音,是的。

copy your voice, and it will pronounce it perfectly correctly Yeah.

Speaker 0

在后期。

In post.

Speaker 1

有一件事我觉得很有趣,那就是几年前克雷格·文特尔曾尝试制造一个最简可行细胞,他只是删除了所有非必需的基因。

One thing that I do think was interesting is Craig Venter a while back tried to make a minimum viable cell where he just tried to delete all of the genes that were not considered essential.

Speaker 1

这就像是一个新生命形式,而这一切几乎发生在20年前了。

And so it's like a new life form, and this was almost 20 ago and so on.

Speaker 1

而且这个东西在实验室里是可行的。

And that thing was viable in the lab.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因此,你有可能进行逆向工程。

And so it's possible that you could reverse engineer.

Speaker 1

所以你是从不同的角度来解决这个问题。

So you're coming at the problem from different directions.

Speaker 1

RNA分子可以完成相当多的事情。

RNA molecules can do quite a lot.

Speaker 1

你对它们如何结合在一起有一些合理的假设。

You've got some reasonable assumptions as to how that could come together.

Speaker 1

你拥有简化后的最小可行生命形式。

You've got stripped down minimum viable life forms.

Speaker 1

这里并不是没有东西。

It's not there isn't stuff here.

Speaker 1

你可以看到微进化。

You can see microevolution.

Speaker 1

你可以在序列层面上看到。

You can see at the sequence level.

Speaker 1

如果你做分子系统发育学,实际上可以追踪回碱基。

If you do molecular phylogenetics, you can actually track back the bases.

Speaker 1

实际上,这里并不是没有证据。

There's actually so it's not like there's no evidence here.

Speaker 1

有很多工具可以使用。

There's a lot of tools to work with.

Speaker 1

但在我看来,这是一个非常有趣的研究领域,实际上也与人工智能相关,因为另一种形式的自然发生可能是如果我们能够创造出一种不同的生命形式,比如硅基而非碳基的,当然,这是在延伸你的观点。

But this, in my view, is a fascinating area, and actually also relevant to AI because another form of abiogenesis would be if we were able to give rise to a different branch of life form, the silicon based as opposed to carbon based, you know, to to stretch your point.

Speaker 1

你创造出某种确实符合某种生命定义的东西。

You give rise to something that actually does meet the definition of life for some definition of life.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你认为人工生命体的定义是什么?

What do you think that definition is for an artificial life form?

Speaker 0

因为你提到了意识。

Because you mentioned consciousness.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

什么时候我们会停下来思考,我们创造了一种东西,它在某种定义下——无论是精神的、诗意的、浪漫的、哲学的还是数学的——被认为是活着的?

When will it give us pause that we created something that feels by some definition or by some spiritual, poetic, romantic, philosophical, mathematical definition that it is alive

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

而我们不愿意去杀死它。

And we wouldn't want to kill it.

Speaker 1

关于这一点,我有几点要说。

So a couple of remarks on that.

Speaker 1

一个是弗朗西斯·克里克,也就是沃森和克里克中的克里克,在他去世前,我认为他最后一篇论文发表于一个叫做屏状核的结构。

One is Francis Crick of of Watson and Crick, before he died, I think his last paper was published on something called the claustrum.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

但在生物学或任何领域,人们有时会被劝阻去探索那些重大的问题,对吧?

And the thing is that sometimes in biology or in any domain, people are sort of discouraged from going after the big questions, right?

Speaker 1

但他提出,屏状核实际上是意识的中枢。

But he proposed the claustrum is actually the organ that is the seat of consciousness.

Speaker 1

它就像一层覆盖大脑的鞘状结构。

It's like this sheath that covers the brain.

Speaker 1

对于小鼠来说,如果——再次说明,我可能记错了,但你可以查证——我的记忆是,如果破坏了这个结构,小鼠会变得非常迷失方向。

For mice, if you and again, I may be recollecting this wrong, but you can look, but my recollection is in mice if you disrupt this, the mouse is very disoriented.

Speaker 1

这正是沃森和克里克一贯的信条:结构决定功能。

It's the kind of thing which Watson and Crick were all about structure implies function.

Speaker 1

他们发现了DNA的结构,这一惊人的发现,并在论文结尾以极其低调的方式提到:显然,这种结构为遗传物质如何复制和纠错提供了基础,因为双螺旋解开后,你可以复制粘贴它。

They found the structure of DNA, this amazing thing, and they remarked in this very understated way at the end of the paper that well, obviously this gives a basis for how the genetic material might be replicated and error corrected because helix unwinds and you copy paste it.

Speaker 1

所以他是个重视结构与功能关系的人,这种观点不仅适用于蛋白质层面,也不仅限于DNA层面,也可能适用于器官层面。

So he was a big structure function person, and that applies not just at the protein level, not just at the level of DNA, potentially also at the level of organs.

Speaker 1

屏状核是一个整合系统层面,就像神经网络的最后一层之类的。

The clostrum is this system integrating level, it's like the last layer in the neural network or something.

Speaker 1

所以我认为这种研究方向是值得投入的。

And so that's the kind of thing that I think is worth studying.

Speaker 1

意识是另一个重大问题,生命起源也是个大问题,原始的未解之谜就是意识,然后是生命的定义。

So consciousness is another kind of big abiogenesis is a big question, the primal remains consciousness is a big question, and then definition of life.

Speaker 1

有人——天哪,我觉得这个我得去谷歌查一下,但我想有个家伙,可能在圣塔菲研究所之类的,提出过某种生命的定义,一种热力学定义。

There's folks gosh, I think so this one is something I'd have to Google around, but there was a guy I think at Santa Fe Institute or something who had some definition of life and like some thermodynamic definition.

Speaker 1

但你说得对,这将会是一个多特征的定义。

But you're right that it's gonna be a multi feature definition.

Speaker 1

我们或许会有一个类似图灵测试的定义,老实说,就是如果足够多的人认为它是活的,那它就是活的。

We might have a Turing test like definition, frankly, which is just if enough humans agree it's alive, it's alive.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这可能实际上就是操作性定义,因为病毒正处于这种边界案例中。

And that might frankly be the operational definition because viruses are like this boundary case.

Speaker 1

它们算活着吗?

Are they alive or not?

Speaker 1

大多数人不认为它们是活的,但它们确实比一块石头更接近生命。

Most people don't think they're alive, but they're they're they're on they're kind of they're more alive than a rock in a sense.

Speaker 0

我认为,在我们今天将广泛讨论的数字世界中,最富有哲学和技术意义的生命定义,是数字世界中的生命。

Well, I think in a world that we'll talk about today quite a bit, which is the digital world, I think the most fascinating philosophically and technically definition of life is life in the digital world.

Speaker 1

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

所以聊天机器人,本质上是某种生物,无论是人类的复制品还是完全独立的创造,或许以自动化的方式,我认为未来会出现一些聊天机器人,如果我们试图关闭它们,我们会感到道德上的不安。

So chatbots, essentially, creatures, whether they're replicas of humans or totally independent creations, perhaps in an automatic way, I think there's going to be chatbots that we would ethically be troubled by if we wanted to kill them.

Speaker 0

它们具备承受痛苦的能力。

They would have the capacity to suffer.

Speaker 0

它们会非常不乐意你试图关闭它们。

They would be very unhappy with you trying to turn them off.

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Speaker 0

然后会有一大批活动人士抗议,他们会去最高法院,或者十年、二十年、三十年、四十年后最高法院的样子,要求这些聊天机器人享有与人类相同的权利。

And then there'll be large groups of activists that will protest, and they'll go to the Supreme Court or whatever the Supreme Court looks like in in ten, twenty, thirty, forty years, and they will demand that these chatbots would have the same rights as us humans.

Speaker 0

你觉得这有可能吗?

Do you think that's possible?

Speaker 1

我见过那位谷歌工程师,他基本上说这种情况已经发生了,这让我很惊讶,因为当我看了他的聊天记录后,并不觉得特别有趣。

I saw that Google engineer who was basically saying this had already happened, and I was surprised by it because it just when I looked at the chat logs of it, it didn't seem particularly interesting.

Speaker 1

另一方面,我完全可以想象,对于那些不太关注的人而言,GPT-3 已经显示出显著的进步。

On the other hand, I can definitely see I mean, GPT three, for people who, you know, haven't paid attention, shows that serious step ups are possible.

Speaker 1

而且显然,你一直在你的播客里大量谈论人工智能。

And obviously, you know, you've talked about AI in your podcast a ton.

Speaker 1

GPT-9 或者 GPT-15,甚至 GPT-4,会不会就是那样的存在?

Is it possible that GPT nine or something is is kind of like that or GPT 15 or or GPT four maybe?

Speaker 0

但是的。

But Yeah.

Speaker 0

对于只是在听的人而言,你的脸上流露出深深的怀疑。

For people just listening, there's a deep skepticism in your face.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

你知道,原因在于你知道什么是可能的吗?

You know, the reason being because you know what's possible?

Speaker 1

有可能社会会基于这种根本差异产生分裂,你知道吗?

It's possible that you have like a partition of society on literally this basis, you know?

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

这是一种模型,就像有素食者和非素食者一样,可能有些机器有生命,有些机器只是机器,你知道吗?

That's one model, where there's some people just like there's vegetarians and nonvegetarians, right, there may be machines have life and machines are machines, you know?

Speaker 1

或者类似的情况,对吧?

Or something like that, right?

Speaker 1

你能想象未来会出现这样的分裂,你的基本政治和社会体系将以此为前提假设。

You know, could you could definitely imagine some kind of partition like that in the future where your fundamental political social system, that's a foundational assumption.

Speaker 1

而且,你知道,人工智能是否应该享有和人类同等的权利?

And, you know, is AI does it, you know, deserve the same rights as like a human?

Speaker 1

或者,例如,公司是一个中间体。

Or for example, a corporation is an intermediate.

Speaker 1

你有没有注意到人类和公司之间的区别?

Do you see that thing which is how human are different corporations?

Speaker 1

你看过那个信息图吗?

Have you seen that infographic?

Speaker 1

这其实挺有趣的。

It's actually funny.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

就像

It's like

Speaker 0

一个连续体。

a spectrum.

Speaker 1

存在一个连续体。

There's a spectrum.

Speaker 1

比如,迪士尼被认为和狗一样有人性。

So for example, Disney is considered about as human as like a dog.

Speaker 1

但像埃克森美孚这样的公司,我可能记不太清了,但它们有一个等级,一端是人类,另一端是石头。

But like Exxon I I may be remembering this from, but they had like a level with like human at one end and like rock at the

Speaker 0

另一端?这和公司结构有关吗?

other Does that have to do with corporate structure?

Speaker 0

我的意思是,它们也在做出反应。

What what what I

Speaker 1

我认为这关乎人们对这家公司的同理心,以及它们的品牌,但有趣的是,人们确实认为公司或多或少具有人性,真正引发共鸣的是品牌。

think it's about people's empathy for that corporation, their brand But it's interesting to see that, first of all, people sort of do think of corporations as being more or like, the branding is really what they're responding to.

Speaker 0

这正是我的意思,它们也在做出反应。

Well, that's what I mean, they're also responding.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,我正在试图推销一个属于我自己的‘人设’品牌。

You know, I have a brand of human that I'm trying to sell.

Speaker 0

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

而且在大多数情况下,这似乎是有效的。

And it seems to be effective for the most part.

Speaker 1

是的。

Sure.

Speaker 0

不过,这已经变成一个笑谈,人们觉得我可能是个机器人。

Although it has become like a running joke that I might be a robot.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

这意味着这个品牌形象正在出现裂痕。

Which means there's the brand is cracking.

Speaker 0

看得出来。

Could see.

Speaker 0

正在渗透出来。

It's seeping through.

Speaker 0

但我的意思是,从这个角度来说,我觉得没有理由认为聊天机器人不能制造出一种人性化、有感知力的品牌形象。

But I mean, in that sense, I just I think I don't see a reason why chatbots can't manufacture the brand of being human, of being sentient.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,这确实是图灵测试,但更像是多人图灵测试。

I mean, that is the Turing test, but it's like the multiplayer Turing test.

Speaker 1

现在实际上已经有相当多的聊天机器人通过了图灵测试,我觉得这至少还要再提升两个层次。

Now that actually a fair number of chatbots have passed the Turing test, I'd say there's at least two steps up.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

一个是多人图灵测试,即聊天机器人之间互相对话。

One is a multiplayer Turing test where you have chatbots talking to each other.

Speaker 1

然后你问:你能区分出 n 个聊天机器人彼此对话、在应用里点击按钮之类的行为,和 n 个真人做这些事之间的区别吗?

And then you ask, can you determine the difference between n chatbots talking to each other and clicking buttons and stuff in apps and n humans doing that?

Speaker 1

我觉得我们还差得很远,或者我不该说差得很远。

And I think we're very far off or I shouldn't say very far off.

Speaker 1

至少,我不知道在时间上我们还差多远,但在一群 n 个聊天机器人的数字输出看起来像一群 n 个真人这一点上,我们仍然差距很大。

At least, I don't know how far off we are in terms of time, but we're still far off in terms of a group of n chatbots looking like their digital output is like the group of n humans.

Speaker 1

从图灵测试到多人图灵测试。

Like, from the Turing test to the multiplayer Turing test.

Speaker 1

这是一种定义。

That's one definition.

Speaker 1

另一种定义是能够无缝替换,而不仅仅是让一个普通人相信在短暂的互动中这是个人类。

Another definition is to be able to kind of swap in, and you're not just convincing one human that this is a human for a small session.

Speaker 1

你要让所有人类都相信,这在长期的互动中就是一个人类。

You're convincing all humans that this is a human for end sessions.

Speaker 1

远程工作实际上让这一点成为可能。

Remote work actually makes this possible.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这是另一种多玩家图灵测试的定义,本质上是一个完全自动化的聊天机器人,作为智能代理为你赚钱,能够去申请远程工作之类的任务。

That's another definition of a multiplayer Turing test where basically you have a chatbot that's fully automated that is earning money for you as an intelligent agent on a computer that's able to go and get remote work jobs and so on.

Speaker 1

我会认为这是下一个层次,对吧?

I would consider that next level, right?

Speaker 1

如果你能拥有一个足够胜任的东西,因为计算机上的一切都可以被自动化。

If you could have something that was like that, that was competent enough to because everything on a computer can be automated.

Speaker 1

literally 你可以完全放手,就像自动驾驶一样,你可以实现自主学习。

Literally you could be totally hands free just like autonomous driving, you could have autonomous learning.

Speaker 1

作为一个挑战性问题,如果你是微软或苹果,并且合法地拥有操作系统访问权限,就像苹果说的:‘你能给我这个事件的详细信息吗?’

As a challenge problem, if you were Microsoft or Apple and you had legitimate access to the operating system, just like Apple says, can you send me details of this event?

Speaker 1

一个去中心化的系统理论上可以记录成千上万、甚至百万用户的操作行为。

A decentralized thing could in theory log you know, the actions of 10,000 or a 100,000 or a million people.

Speaker 1

结合加密货币,你甚至可以监控这台电脑上的钱包,观察哪些长期操作序列导致了这个数字余额的增减。

And with cryptocurrency, you can even monitor a wallet that was on that computer, and you could see, you know, what long run series of actions were increasing or decreasing this digital balance.

Speaker 1

你明白我的意思吗?

You see what I'm saying?

Speaker 1

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以,至少从概念上讲,这会变得极具侵入性,也会带来隐私问题等等。

So you start to get, at least conceptually, it'd be invasive and and, you know, there'd be a privacy issue and so on.

Speaker 1

从概念上讲,你可以想象一个代理,它能学习人类哪些行为导致了其本地加密货币余额的增加。

Conceptually, you could imagine an agent that could learn what actions humans were doing that resulted in the increase of their local cryptocurrency balance.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

也许有更好的方式来表述它,但我认为一个具有挑战性的问题是,从图灵测试走向一个真正智能的代理,它能真正为你赚钱。

There may be better ways to formulate it, but that I would consider a challenge problem is to go from the Turing test to a genuine intelligent agent that can actually go and make money for you.

Speaker 1

如果你能做到这一点,那就非同小可了。

If you can do that, that's a big deal.

Speaker 1

人们当然已经有交易机器人之类的东西了,但那将是下一个层次。

People obviously have trading bots and stuff, but that would be, you know, the next level.

Speaker 1

它在打邮件。

It's typing out emails.

Speaker 1

它在创建文档。

It's creating documents.

Speaker 1

实际上,它是

It's actually So

Speaker 0

完全模仿人类行为。

mimic human behavior in its entirety.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

它还能安排Zoom会议。

And it can it'll schedule Zooms.

Speaker 1

它会发送邮件。

It'll send emails.

Speaker 1

它会本质上做到这一点,因为如果你仔细想想,人类就是敲键盘、点击鼠标,但就像自动驾驶汽车一样,方向盘会自己转动。

It'll essentially because if you think about it, a human is hitting the keys and clicking the mouse, but just like a self driving car, the wheel rotates by itself.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这些按键实际上就像是苹果系统里的自动化应用。

Those keys are effectively just it's like a like the automator app in in Apple.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所有东西都在屏幕上移动。

Everything is just moving on the screen.

Speaker 1

你看到的那些,其实只是人工智能。

You're seeing it there, and it's just an AI.

Speaker 0

我觉得很搞笑的是,那个‘我不是机器人’的点击验证居然真的管用。

It's kinda hilarious that the I'm not a robot click thing

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

它真的有效。

Actually works.

Speaker 0

因为说实话,我其实不知道

Because I I I actually don't know

Speaker 1

这到底是怎么发生的?

How how that's happening?

Speaker 0

它是如何工作的,但我认为这与鼠标移动、时间间隔有关,他们知道,目前对于机器人来说,要模仿人类点击那个小复选框的方式是非常困难的。

How it works, but I think it has to do with the movement of the mouse, the timing, and they know that it's very difficult for currently for a bot to mimic human behavior in the way they would click that little checkbox.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 1

我认为这是一堆高度混淆的 JavaScript,我的记忆是,它看起来像是一个非常简单的方框,但实际上在后台做了很多事,并收集了各种各样的行为数据。

I think it's something I mean, again, my recollection on that is it's like a pile of highly obfuscated JavaScript with all kind it looks like a very simple box, but it's doing a lot of stuff and it's collecting all kinds of instrumentation.

Speaker 1

而且,没错,就像机器人太过于确定性了,或者即使加入噪声,也只是高斯噪声。

And, yeah, exactly like a like a robot is just a little too deterministic, or if it's got noise, it's like Gaussian noise.

Speaker 1

而人类的做法是,过去没有收集成千上万条人类操作轨迹的话,根本无法模拟。

And the way humans do it is just not something that you'd used to be able to do without collecting thousands and thousands and thousands of human traces doing it.

Speaker 1

但这确实是一种猎物与捕食者之间的博弈。

But it is a predator prey on that.

Speaker 0

说吧。

Go ahead.

Speaker 0

然后,计算机或者

Well, and then the computer Or

Speaker 1

数百万条人类行为轨迹。

millions of human traces.

Speaker 1

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

计算机只看到JavaScript。

The computer just sees the JavaScript.

Speaker 0

它需要能够超越模拟环境进行观察。

It needs to be able to look outside the simulation.

Speaker 0

对计算机来说,世界就是这样。

For the computer, the world is like Right.

Speaker 0

计算机并不了解物理世界。

Doesn't the computer doesn't know about the physical world.

Speaker 0

所以它必须跳出自己的世界,反观这个简单的盒子。

So it has to look outside of its world and introspect back on this simple box.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

这恰恰就是蘑菇或者致幻剂所做的——让你跳出去,再回头看进来。

It's which is kind of, you know I think that's exactly what mushrooms do or like psychedelics, is you get to go outside and look back in.

Speaker 0

这正是计算机需要做的。

That's what a computer needs to do.

Speaker 1

我不禁怀疑,它们究竟是真正给人带来了洞见,还是仅仅给了人一种洞见的错觉。

I I, you know, I do wonder whether they actually give people insight or whether they give people the illusion of insight.

Speaker 0

这有区别吗?

Is there a difference?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

因为真正的洞见,你知道,真正的洞见就像麦克斯韦方程组那样。

Because well, actual insight, you know, actual insight is, again, Maxwell's equations.

Speaker 1

你能用它来改变世界。

You're you're able to shift the world with that.

Speaker 1

有很多实用的设备是有效的。

There's a lot of practical devices that work.

Speaker 1

幻觉式的洞察就是我自认为是耶稣基督,但什么都没发生。

The illusion of insight is I'm Jesus Christ and nothing happens.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

Speaker 1

我觉得这两者差别很大。

I think those are quite different.

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

我觉得在这件事上,你可以先假装直到你真的做到了,而从某种意义上说,洞察就是揭示一个一直存在的真相。

I I I think you can fake it till you make it on that one, which is insight in some sense is revealing a truth that was there all along.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

所以,我的意思是,我想我指的是技术性洞察,就是你有这种东西,你知道,我们其实之前在播客开始前就讨论过,技术真相与政治真相的区别。

So, I mean, I guess, like, I'm talking about technical insight where you you have this is the thing, you know, we were talking about actually before the podcast, like technical truths versus political truths.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

有些真相是处于一个连续谱上的。

Some truths, they're they're on a spectrum.

Speaker 1

还有一些真相完全是政治性的,意思是,如果你能改变足够多人脑海中的软件,你就能改变真相的价值。

And there's some truths that are actually entirely political in the sense that if you can change the software in enough people's heads, you change the the value of the truth.

Speaker 1

例如,边境的位置实际上是足够大群体之间的共识。

For example, the location of a border is effectively consensus between large enough groups of people.

Speaker 1

谁是首席执行官?

Who is the CEO?

Speaker 1

这你知道,是一群人之间的共识。

That's, you know, consensus among a certain group of people.

Speaker 1

货币或任何股票的价值是什么?

What is the value of a currency or any stock?

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

那个市场价格只是一群人心理的反映。

That that market price is just the psychology of a bunch of people.

Speaker 1

换句话说,如果你能改变足够多人的想法,你就能改变边境的位置、等级制度的结构,或者货币的价值。

Like, literally, if you can change enough people's minds, you can change the value of the border or the position of the hierarchy or the value of the currency.

Speaker 1

这些完全是政治性的真实。

Those are purely political truths.

Speaker 1

而在另一端,则是技术性的真实,它们独立于任何个人或全体人类的想法而存在,比如引力常数或病毒的直径。

Then all the way on the other end are technical truths that exist independent of whatever any one human or all humans think, like the gravitational constant or the diameter of a virus.

Speaker 1

这些真实独立于人类的思维而存在。

Those exist independent of the human mind.

Speaker 1

改变足够多的人的想法也无济于事。

Change enough human minds doesn't matter.

Speaker 1

这些是保持不变的。

Those remain constant.

Speaker 1

你有一些有趣处于中间地带的事物,加密货币试图将越来越多的东西从政治真理的领域拉入技术真理的领域,他们说:好吧,我们唯一的社会共识是,如果你持有一定数量的比特币,或者你持有这个私钥,你就拥有这个比特币。

You have things that are interestingly in the middle where cryptocurrency has tried to pull more and more things from the domain of political truths into technical truths where they say, okay, the one social convention we have is that if you hold this amount of Bitcoin or that if you hold this private key, you hold this Bitcoin.

Speaker 1

然后我们让这一点很难改变,因为你必须改变大量的技术真理。

And then we make that very hard to change because you have to change a lot of technical truths.

Speaker 1

所以你可以把某些东西推向这个有趣的中间地带。

So you you can push things to this interesting intermediate zone.

Speaker 0

问题是,我们能将多少世界的部分推入这个中间地带?

The the question is how how how much of our world can we push into that?

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

这把我们带入了一段非线性的、引人入胜的旅程,回到我一开始想问你的问题:你提到的政治世界,即政治真理的世界。

And that takes us in a nonlinear fascinating journey to the question I wanted to ask you in the beginning, which is this political world that you mentioned in the world of political truth.

Speaker 0

正如我们在二十世纪和二十一世纪初所了解的那样,你认为政府哪些方面运作良好,哪些方面出了问题?

As we know it in the twentieth century, in the early twenty first century, what do you think works well, and what is broken about government?

Speaker 1

根本问题是,我们无法轻易且和平地建立新的自愿性政府。

The fundamental thing is that we can't easily and peacefully start new opt in governments.

Speaker 1

而且

And

Speaker 0

就像初创政府一样。

Like startup governments.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,如今你可以创办一家新公司,建立一个新社区,甚至创建一种新货币。

And what I mean by that is basically you can start a new company, you can start a new community, you can start a new currency even these days.

Speaker 1

你不必通过决斗击败前任CEO来创办一家新公司。

You don't have to beat the former CEO in a duel to start a new company.

Speaker 1

你也不必成为世界银行行长才能创建一种新货币。

You don't have to become head of the World Bank to start a new currency.

Speaker 1

因此,是的,如果你愿意,你可以加入,比如说微软或者GameStop这样的公司,尝试去改革它。

Because of this, yes, if you can if if you're if you want to, you can join, I don't know, Microsoft or name some company that's GameStop, and you can try to reform it.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

或者你可以自己创建一个。

Or you can start your own.

Speaker 1

这两种选择都存在的事实意味着,你可以从零开始,这正是我们拥有一张白纸的原因。

And the fact that both options exist mean that you can actually just start from scratch, that's just the same reason we have a clean piece of paper.

Speaker 1

我实际上在《网络国家》这本书中提到过这一点。

I mentioned this actually in the Network State book.

Speaker 1

我来引用这段话:我们希望能够和平地建立一个新的国家,原因和我们希望拥有一块未开发的土地、一张空白的纸、一个空的文本缓冲区、一块干净的防水布或一张清零的 slate 一样——因为我们希望在没有历史束缚的情况下构建新事物。

I'll just quote this bit, but we wanna be able to start a new state peacefully for the same reason we want a bare plot of Earth, a blank sheet of paper, an empty text buffer, a fresh tarp, or a clean slate because we wanna build something new without historical constraint.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

同样的道理,当你点击加号新建文档时,就是这个意思。

For the same reason, you hit plus and do docs dot new, you know, like create a new doc.

Speaker 1

原因是一样的。

It's for the same reason.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因为你不想按退格键。

Because you don't want to backspace.

Speaker 1

你不想只有128字节的空间、128千字节,然后必须先删除旧文档才能创建新文档。

You don't want to have just like a 128 bytes of space, 128 kilobytes, and just have to backspace the old document before creating a new one.

Speaker 1

所以这是当今政府根本性的问题,这是一个元层面的观点。

So that's a fundamental thing that's wrong with today's governments, and it's a meta point.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因为这不是任何一项具体的改革。

Because it's not any one specific reform.

Speaker 1

而是一种能够建立新国家的元改革。

It's a meta reform of being able to start new countries.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

所以这是一个问题,但你也可以反驳说,这其实是一个优点,因为很多人认为传统具有力量。

So that's one problem, but there you know, you could push back and say that's that's a feature because, you know, a lot of people argue that tradition has power.

Speaker 0

经过一代代的传承,如果你长期坚持做一件事——就像我看婚姻那样——其中的挣扎与历程本身就有价值,你们会在其中共同成长,发展出共同的理念。

Through generation, if you try a thing long enough, which is the way I see marriage, there's value to the struggle and the journey you take through the struggle and you grow and you develop ideas together.

Speaker 0

你们在智力上、哲学上共同成长,这就是跨越世代的国家的理念:传统不断演进,努力接近真理,虽未必能抵达,但能一代代地逐步靠近。

You grow intellectually, philosophically together, and that's the idea of a nation that spans generations, that you have a tradition that becomes more that that strives towards the truth and is able to arrive there or no, not arrive, but take steps towards there through the generations.

Speaker 0

所以你可能并不想不断建立新的政府。

So you you may not want to keep starting new governments.

Speaker 0

你可能更愿意坚持旧的体制,一步一步地改进它。

You may want to stick to the old one and improve it one step at a time.

Speaker 0

所以,婚姻中出现争吵并不意味着你就该离婚,去下载Tinder,开始四处约会。

So just because you're having a fight inside a marriage doesn't mean you should get a divorce and go on Tinder and start dating around.

Speaker 0

这就是反驳的观点。

That's the that's the pushback.

Speaker 0

这是否真的是一个显著的优势,并不那么明显,没错。

It's it's not obvious that this is a strong feature to have Sure.

Speaker 0

为了建立新的政府。

In order to launch new governments.

Speaker 1

关于这个问题,有几种不同的攻击角度、辩论方式等等。

There's several different kind of lines of attack or or debate or whatever on this.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

首先,传统确实有其价值,人们常说这是林迪效应。

First is, yes, there's obviously value to tradition, and, you know, people say this is Lindy and that's Lindy.

Speaker 1

它已经被证明了很长时间,等等。

It's been proven for a long time and so on.

Speaker 1

但传统与创新之间当然存在张力。

But of course, there's a tension between tradition and innovation.

Speaker 1

比如,登月就不是林迪效应。

You know, like, going to the moon wasn't Lindy.

Speaker 1

但它真的很了不起。

Just it was awesome.

Speaker 1

而且,你知道,人工智能是非常新的东西。

And, you know, like, artificial intelligence is something that's very new.

Speaker 1

新是好事。

New is good.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这其实也是人类自身内部的一种张力,因为你知道,人类的历史远比这些国家要悠久得多。

And this is a tension within humanity actually itself because you know it's way older than all of these nations.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,人类已经有数万年的历史了。

I mean, humans are tens of thousands of years old.

Speaker 1

人类的答案则有数百万年的历史。

Answers to humans are millions of years old.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

如果你回溯得足够久,我们今天所熟知的定居农民和士兵,其实如果要真正传统的话,我们原本是游猎采集者,四处迁徙,没有国界之类的。

And you go back far enough, and the time that we know today of the sessile farmer and soldier is if you go back far enough, you want to be truly traditional, well, we're actually sent from hunter gatherers who are mobile and wandered the world, and there weren't borders and so on.

Speaker 1

他们想去哪儿就去哪儿。

They kind of went where they want.

Speaker 1

人们曾对骨骼等进行过历史重建,许多人报告称,转向农业和定居生活导致身高下降、牙齿腐烂等问题,这些都体现在骨骼上。

And people had done historical reconstructions of skeletons and stuff like that, and many folks report that the transition to agriculture and being sessile resulted diminution of height, people had tooth decay and stuff like that, the skeletons.

Speaker 1

人们用自由换取了稳定。

People had traded off upside for stability.

Speaker 1

国家就是这样的,那些定居型社会就是如此。

That's what the state was, that was what these sessile kinds of things were.

Speaker 1

当然,他们更有可能持续生存下去。

Now of course, they had more likelihood of living consistently.

Speaker 1

你可以支持更大的人口规模,但生活质量却降低了。

You could support larger population sizes, but it had lower quality of life.

Speaker 1

因此,狩猎采集者或许正是我们集体记忆中的伊甸园——在那里,人们就像蜘蛛天生知道如何织网、海狸天生知道如何筑坝一样,有些人认为,整个伊甸园的故事,其实是一种内置的神经网络记忆,回溯到定居之前的时代,那时人们可以自由漫游,随手采摘果实,人口密度很低。

And so the hunter gatherer, maybe that's actually our collective recollection of a Garden of Eden where people just like a spider knows innately how to build webs or a beaver knows how to build dams, You know, some people theorize that the entire Garden Of Eden is like a sort of built in neural network recollection of this pre sessile era where you're able to roam around, just pick off fruits and so on, low population density.

Speaker 1

所以,我想我们正在见证的是版本三。

So the point is that I think what we're seeing is a v three.

Speaker 1

你从狩猎采集者转变为农民和士兵,定居社会出现了,有了国界等等,再到所谓的v3阶段,即数字游民,新的狩猎采集者。

You go from the hunter gatherer to the farmer and soldier, the sessile, nations are here and they've got borders and so on, to kind of the v three which is the digital nomad, the new hunter gatherer.

Speaker 1

我们正在回归未来,因为你知道,比国家更古老的是无国家状态。

We're going back to the future because you know what's even older than nations is no nations.

Speaker 1

比传统更传统的,是国际性。

Even more traditional than tradition is being international.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因此,我们实际上是在唤醒人类另一条宏大的脉络——探索、开拓、漫游、创新的渴望,你知道的?

And so we're actually tapping into that other huge thread in humanity, which is the desire to explore, pioneer, wander, innovate, you know?

Speaker 1

我认为这很重要。

And I think that's important.

Speaker 0

让美国再次伟大,就是将其彻底溶解于虚无之中。

To make America great again is to dissolve it completely in into oblivion.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

这只是一个笑话。

It's a joke.

Speaker 1

我明白了。

I see.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我知道这是个笑话。

I know it's a joke.

Speaker 1

但关键是

But the thing

Speaker 0

好吧,幽默。

well Humor.

Speaker 0

我正在学一件新事。

I'm learning this new thing.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

机器人的一项新功能。

A new thing for the robot.

Speaker 1

那个地方的聊天机器人模拟还没有完全正常工作。

The chatbot emulation isn't fully working there.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

故障。

Glitch.

Speaker 0

就是在测试版里的那个地方。

That's where in the in the beta.

Speaker 1

让我再说一件事,你知道,世界上每个人都可以。

And let me just say say one other thing about this, which is, you know, there are I mean, everybody in the world to okay.

Speaker 1

比如说,我不知道具体百分比。

Let's say, I don't know what percentage.

Speaker 1

我们假设,在美国的政治讨论中,有99.99%甚至接近这个数字的精力都集中在试图修复现有体制上。

Let's say 99.99%, or it's rounds to that number, of political discourse in The US focuses on trying to fix the system.

Speaker 1

如果那些人——我的意思是,只有0.1%的精力用于构建一个新体系,这看起来不就是一种相当不错的投资策略吗?

If those folks I mean, point o 1% of the energy is going towards building a new system, that seems like a pretty good portfolio strategy, right?

Speaker 1

难道100%的精力都该用来修改两百多年前写下的这套代码吗?

Or 100% are supposed to go and edit this code base from two hundred something years ago.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,世界上最美国化的事情,就是离开自己的国家,去寻找更好的生活。

I mean, the most American thing in the world is going and leaving your country in search of a better life.

Speaker 1

美国是由开国元勋们在两百年前建立的。

America was founded two hundred years ago by the founding fathers.

Speaker 1

它不仅仅是一个移民国家,它就是一个移民国家。

It's not just a nation of immigrants, it's a nation of immigrants.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

从其他国家移民到美国,以及美国国内的迁徙流动。

Emigration from other countries to The US and actually also immigration within The US.

Speaker 1

有一个非常棒的YouTube视频,叫‘美国50个州的人口变化’,时间从1790年到2050年,里面有个模拟动画。

There's an amazing YouTube video called it's like 50 states US population, I think seventeen ninety to it says twenty fifty, so they've got a simulation.

Speaker 1

你只要暂停在2019年或2020年就行了。

So you just stop it at twenty nineteen or twenty twenty.

Speaker 1

但它显示,弗吉尼亚州早期曾排名第一,后来逐渐落后,而纽约州则崛起。

But it shows that, like, Virginia was, like, number one early on, and then it lost ground and, like, New York gained.

Speaker 0

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

19世纪早期,俄亥俄州非常重要,被称为‘总统之父’,出了很多总统,后来伊利诺伊州和印第安纳州也变得重要。

And then, like, Ohio was a big deal in the early eighteen hundreds, and it was, like, father of presidents in general, all these presidents, and later Illinois and Indiana.

Speaker 1

加利福尼亚州真正崛起是在20世纪,尤其是大萧条时期;而我们现在正进入一个新时代,佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州崛起,纽约州和加利福尼亚州则相对下滑。

And then California only really came up in the the twentieth century, like, during the Great Depression, Now we're entering the modern era where Florida and Texas have risen and New York and California have dropped.

Speaker 1

所以,州际竞争其实就像货币之间的竞争。

So interstate competition, it's actually just like inter currency competition.

Speaker 1

你有交易对,对吧?

You've got trading pairs, right?

Speaker 1

你卖出比特币,买入以太坊。

You sell BTC, buy ETH.

Speaker 1

你卖出索拉纳,或者卖出门罗币或Zcash。

You sell, you know, Solana or you know, sell Monero by Zcash.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

每一对交易都为你提供了今天某种货币相对于另一种货币是下跌还是上涨的信号。

Each of those trading pairs gives you signal for today on this currency is down or up relative to this other currency.

Speaker 1

同样地,每一对人口迁移——比如有人从纽约搬到俄亥俄,或从俄亥俄搬到加州——都提供了关于各州吸引力的信息。

In the same way, each of those migration pairs, someone goes from New York to Ohio, Ohio to California, gives you information on the desirability of different states.

Speaker 1

你可以随着时间推移,像构建链接矩阵一样,构建这样的配对矩阵。

You can literally form a pairs matrix like this over time, very much like the link matrix.

Speaker 1

这在很大程度上塑造了美国。

That's shaped America in a huge way.

Speaker 1

所以你会问,A,这个由比我们更年轻的人所建立的移民国家——顺便说一句,开国元勋们常常只有二十多岁——他们认同‘理念国家’的概念,催生了一个由创始人和开拓者组成的国家,这些人甚至真的登上了月球,对吧?

And so you ask, a, if if this nation of immigrants that was founded by men younger than us, by the way, the founding fathers were often in their twenties, right, who, you know, endorse the concept of proposition nation, who've given rise to a country of founders and pioneers who've literally gone to the moon, right?

Speaker 1

那些人会认为这是历史的终结,就这样了,我们已经完成了。

Those folks would think that this is the end of history, that that's it, we're done.

Speaker 1

我们已经做完了所有其他事情。

We've done everything else.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,科技界有些人相信——我也同意——我们能去火星。

I mean there's people in technology who believe, and I agree with them, that we can go to Mars.

Speaker 1

也许我们能终结死亡,但我们却无法对一个已有230年历史的东西进行创新,你知道的。

There might be able to end death, but we can't innovate on something that was 230 years old, you know.

Speaker 0

所以确实需要找到一个平衡点。

So there is a balance certainly to to strike.

Speaker 0

不过,美国的实验依然令人着迷。

The the American experiment is fascinating, nevertheless.

Speaker 0

所以你可以提出一个观点,即我们其实才刚刚进入这个v2的初期阶段。

So one argument you can make is actually that we're in the very early days of this v two.

Speaker 0

如果你所说的v2是这样,那你可以认为我们还没准备好进入v3,我们只是刚刚在努力搞清楚v2这件事。

If this so what you describe as v two, you could make the case that we're not ready for v three, that we're just actually trying to figure out the v two thing.

Speaker 0

你其实是在试图,比如,

You're trying to, like,

Speaker 1

跳过?我们什么时候才算是准备好了?

skip When are we ever ready?

Speaker 0

现在,我们再回到婚姻和生孩子这类事情上。

Now, again, we'll go back to marriage, I think, and and having kids kind of thing.

Speaker 0

我认为,所有有了孩子的人,从来都没有真正准备好当父母。

I think everyone who has kids is never really ready to be kids.

Speaker 0

这正是关键所在。

That's the whole point.

Speaker 0

你直接投入进去。

You dive in.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

但你说过你不能看下去,除了我们目前所知的政府之外,还有哪些其他批评意见?在我们大致勾勒出v3的想法之前,我想听听。

But the I mean, you you mentioned that you can't watch is there other criticisms of government that you can provide as we know it today before we kinda outline the ideas of of v three?

Speaker 0

我们还是专注于V2吧。

Let's stick to v two.

Speaker 1

我来举几个例子。

I'll give a few.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以这些内容都会纳入这个版本,我有一本书叫《网络国家》,它涉及了一些这些话题。

And so a lot of this stuff will go into the version so I've got, you know, this book, The Network which which covers some of these topics.

Speaker 0

《网络国家》有副标题吗?

Does Network State have a subtitle?

Speaker 1

它就是《网络国家:如何创建一个新国家》。

It it is The Network State, How to Start a New Country.

Speaker 0

如何创建一个新国家。

How to Start a New Country.

Speaker 1

但我只是把它放在thenetworkstate.com上。

And but I just have it at thenetworkstate.com.

Speaker 1

我应该说对。

I should say Yeah.

Speaker 0

这是一本你应该买的优秀书籍。

It's an excellent book that you should get.

Speaker 0

我是在Kindle上读的,但还有一个网站。

I read it on Kindle, but there's also a website.

Speaker 0

巴拉吉说他一直在不断改进和修改它。

And Balaji said that he's constantly working on improving it, changing it.

Speaker 0

等到整个项目完成时,这本书会和最初大不相同了,对吧。

By by by the by the time the whole project is over, it'll be a different book than it was Yeah.

Speaker 0

刚开始的时候。

In the beginning.

Speaker 0

我觉得是这样。

I think so.

Speaker 0

它总是在不断蜕去旧的外壳。

It's always shedding its old skin.

Speaker 1

嗯,我想先发布一些内容,收集反馈之类的,就像一个应用一样。

Well, I I wanted to get something out there and get feedback and and whatnot, just like an app.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

你知道,你面对的是两个极端:应用是高度动态的,你习惯了不断更新;而书本本应是静态的。

You know, you, again, you have these two poles of an app is highly dynamic, and you're you're accustomed to having updates all the time, and a book is supposed to be static.

Speaker 1

而静态、不变的东西也有其价值。

And there's a value in something static, something unchanged and and so on.

Speaker 1

但在这个案例中,我很高兴我发布了1.0版本,接下来的版本,我会暂时拆分成动机理论和实践两部分。

But in this case, I'm glad I kinda shipped a version one point o, and, you know, the the next version, you know, I'm gonna split into, like, tentatively motivation theory and practice.

Speaker 1

比如,动机部分:是什么政治哲学促使我做这件事,你可以选择接受或忽略。

Like, motivation, like, what is the sort of political philosophy and so on that motivates me at least to do this, which you can take or leave.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

然后是理论部分,解释为什么网络国家现在成为可能,我稍后可以定义它。

And then theory as to why network state is now possible, and I can define it in a second.

Speaker 1

而实践部分则包含数不清的实际细节,从道路建设、外交承认到资金筹措、成立机构等等所有这些事情。

And then the practice is zillions of practical details and everything from roads, diplomatic recognition, and so on, funding, founding, all that stuff.

Speaker 1

实际上,很多内容我都没放进第一版,因为我只想先让大家看到它的吸引力,然后再讨论可行性。

A lot of stuff actually I left out of v one simply because I wanted to kind of get the desirability of it on the table and then talk about the the feasibility and

Speaker 0

我应该就我们可以革新的一些方面多说几句。

I should actually linger on that briefly in in terms of things we can revolutionize.

Speaker 0

比如,我认为特斯拉在汽车理念上最大的创新,不是自动驾驶或电动化,而是其他方面。

Like, one of the biggest innovations I think that Tesla does with the way they think about the car, with the deploy the car is not the automation or the electric to me.

Speaker 0

是远程软件更新。

It's the over the air updates.

Speaker 0

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

能够即时推送软件更新,彻底改变汽车的行为和用户体验。

Be able to send instantaneously updates to the software that completely changes the behavior, the UX, everything about the car.

Speaker 0

所以我认为这会很有趣,因为书籍是人类知识的体现,是人类知识的一个快照。

And so I do think it'll be interesting because books are representation of human knowledge, a a snapshot of human knowledge.

Speaker 0

如果我们能想出一种系统,让书籍也能像 GitHub 那样运作,那将会很有趣。

And it'll be interesting that we if we can somehow figure out a system that allows you to do sort of like a GitHub for books.

Speaker 0

比如,我在亚马逊买了一本书,不用再付钱,就能获得更新,比如 1.1 版、1.2 版,还有发布说明?

Like, if I buy a book on Amazon without having to pay again, can I get updates, like v point v 1.1, v 1.2, and there's, like, release notes?

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

那将会非常了不起。

That that would be that would be incredible.

Speaker 0

光出第二版、第三版是不够的,我们需要的是小幅度的更新——这些更新不仅出现在你的网站上,还要真正融入我们购买书籍的机制中。

It's not not enough to do like a second edition or a third edition, but like minor updates that's not just on your website, but actually go into the the model that we use to buy books.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

所以我花了钱。

So I spend my money.

Speaker 0

也许我会推出一项每月5美元的订阅服务,让我能定期获得书籍的更新。

Maybe I'll do a subscription service for $5 a month where I get regular updates to the books.

Speaker 0

这样一来,作者就有动力去更新他们的书籍,使订阅变得合理,这意味着你的书不再只是一个快照,而是一项终身的工程。

And then there's an incentive for authors to actually update their books such that it makes sense for the subscription, and then that means your book isn't just a snapshot, but is a lifelong project.

Speaker 1

是的。

Right.

Speaker 0

所以要对这本书足够用心。

So care enough about the book.

Speaker 1

所以我认为那里还有很多可以做的,因为实际上,在这个过程中,我做得最传统的事就是自己在Kindle上发布电子书。

So I think there's a lot that can be done there because actually, in going through this process, in many ways, the most traditional thing I did was self publish ebook on Kindle.

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

为什么?

Why?

Speaker 1

因为如果你真的和出版社签了合同,他们首先会给你一笔预付款。

Because basically, if you actually ink a deal with a book publisher, first they'll give you some advance.

Speaker 1

我不需要那笔预付款之类的。

I didn't need the advance or anything.

Speaker 1

但第二点是各种限制。

But second is all these constraints.

Speaker 1

你想翻译成某种语言,或者要做其他格式,或者想更新内容,都得去找另一个合作方沟通。

Oh, you want to translate into this, or you want to do this other format, or you want to update it, you have to go and now talk to this other party.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

你知道的。

You know?

Speaker 1

而且他们实际愿意出版的内容范围也越来越窄。

And also the the narrowing window of what they'll actually publish, it gets narrower and narrower.

Speaker 1

你在推特上看到很多青少年小说的崩溃事件,但情况远不止这些。

You see all these, you know, meltdowns of very young adult novels and stuff on Twitter, but it's it's it's more than that.

Speaker 1

所以,拥有一个亚马逊页面,就像是在标记这本书确实存在。

So, you know, actually having an Amazon page, it's just like a marker that a book exists.

Speaker 0

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

现在我有了一个入口,如果有人觉得‘我喜欢这条推文,但我想知道这个想法是从第三章中间来的,该怎么找到它’。

And now I've got an entry point where if someone says, okay, I like this tweet, but how do I kinda get the that that might be a concept from like the middle of chapter three.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

我该怎么从头到尾找到这本书呢?

How do I get the thing from front to back?

Speaker 1

我可以直接让他们去 networkstate.com,这就是一个重要的入口点,对吧?你提到了订阅、金钱等等,现在人们确实会为在线内容付费,比如通讯简报之类的。

I can just point them at the networkstate.com, that is import this, right, this one entry point, okay, and you mentioned like subscription and and and money and so and so forth, and I people are paying for content online now with newsletters and so on.

Speaker 1

但我选择了一直免费提供,而且我希望它能免费,或者你可以在亚马逊上购买Kindle版本,因为你总得为它定个价格。

But I've chosen to, and I will always have the thing free, and I want it on or you can get the Kindle version on Amazon simply because you have to kind of set a price for that.

Speaker 1

但接下来我们要做 it.com,我想让它在每部安卓手机上都能优化运行,这样印度、拉丁美洲或尼日利亚的人就可以直接点击打开。

But then we're gonna it.com, what I wanna do is have that optimized for every Android phone so people in India or Latin America or Nigeria can just tap and open it.

Speaker 1

我们会做翻译之类的操作。

Gonna do translations and stuff like that.

Speaker 1

AllSpace VR 的格雷格·福多尔,你知道的,AllSpace VR 的创始人,他卖掉了这家公司,然后重做了网站。

Greg Fodor of AllSpace VR, you know, founder of AllSpace VR, you know, he he sold that and he codered the website.

Speaker 1

我和他一起做过这个项目,还有另一位设计师叫埃利亚胡。

And, you know, I worked with him on it, there's another designer who Elijah.

Speaker 1

这基本上就是一个三人小团队。

And it's basically just a three person group.

Speaker 1

我们原本觉得做得还不错,但让我特别惊喜的是,之后有这么多人主动联系我们,问我们能不能把创建这个网站的软件开源。

And we thought we had something pretty nice, but one thing I was really pleasantly surprised by is how many people got in touch with us afterwards and asked us if we could open source the software to create this this website.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因为实际上你可以在手机上试用。

Because it's actually you can try it on mobile.

Speaker 1

我认为在某些方面,这比Kindle的体验更好。

I think it's actually, in some ways a better experience than Kindle.

Speaker 1

这很有趣,因为我确实把网站看作是这种书籍应用概念的第一个版本。

And so that was interesting because I do think of the website as like a v one version of this concept of a book app.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

举个例子,想象一下,如果你拥有《圣经》,十诫不仅仅是以文字形式呈现,而是包含一个清单,还能连接到一个基督教社群,实践本身也融入其中。

For example, imagine if you have the Bible and the 10 Commandments aren't just text, but there's a checklist and there's a gateway to a Christian community there, and the practice is embedded into the thing.

Speaker 1

你知道brilliant.org吗?

Did you know brilliant.org?

Speaker 1

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

很棒的网站。

Amazing site.

Speaker 1

我喜欢这个网站。

I love this site.

Speaker 1

Brilliant基本上是移动端友好的教程,你可以轻松地滑动浏览。

Brilliant is basically mobile friendly tutorials, and you can kind of just swipe through.

Speaker 1

你在星巴克排队,或者要上飞机的时候都可以用。

You're in line at Starbucks or getting on a plane or something.

Speaker 1

你只需滑动浏览,就能获得非常精美的微课程,而且互动性刚刚好,能让你的大脑活跃起来,进行问题解决。

You just swipe through and just get really nice micro lessons on things, and it's just interactive enough that your brain is working and you're problem solving.

Speaker 1

有时候你需要一点纸笔,但这种移动端友好、持续学习的模式,我很想在这方面多做些探索。

And sometimes you'll need a little pen and paper, but that format of very mobile friendly just continuous learning, I I I'd like to do a lot more with that.

Speaker 1

所以,这就是我们打算在图书应用上走的方向。

And so that's kind of where we're gonna go with the the book app.

Speaker 0

你们在做至少第一版图书时,有很多有趣的设计,比如有一句总结、一段摘要、TLDR,还有一张图片总结,我觉得这甚至跟注意力时长无关。

So the there's a lot of fun stuff about the way you did at least v one of the book, which is you have, like, a one sentence summary, one paragraph summary, TLDR, and, like, one image summary, which is I think, honestly, it's not even about a short attention span.

Speaker 0

这其实是一个非常好的练习,帮助你进行总结和提炼,没错。

It's a really good exercise about summarization, condensation, Yes.

Speaker 0

它真正帮助你思考:什么是关键洞见。

Really, helping you think through what is the key insight.

Speaker 0

就像我们提到过的质数迷宫,它揭示了人类处境的核心——即与我们思维局限的抗争。

Like, we mentioned the the prime number maze that reveals something central to the human condition, which is struggling against the limitation of our of our minds.

Speaker 0

同样地,你在书中对网络状态进行了总结。

And in that same way, you summarize the network state in the book.

Speaker 0

那我们直接切入这一点吧,我想问你一下。

So let let let's actually jump right there, and let me ask you.

Speaker 0

什么是网络状态?

What is the network state?

Speaker 1

什么是网络状态?

What is the network state?

Speaker 1

我会用一句话来解释,同时也配一张图。

So I'll give it a sentence and also give it an image.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以,非正式的说法是。

So the informal sentence.

Speaker 1

网络状态是一个高度一致的在线社区,具有集体行动的能力,能够在全球范围内众筹领土,并最终获得现有国家的外交承认。

A network state is a highly aligned online community with a capacity for collective action that crowdfunds territory around the world and eventually gains diplomatic recognition from preexisting states.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

我们来逐条分析一下。

So just taking those pieces.

Speaker 1

高度一致的在线社区。

Highly aligned online community.

Speaker 1

这并不是Facebook。

That is not Facebook.

Speaker 1

这也不是Twitter。

That is not Twitter.

Speaker 1

人们不会把自己视为Facebook用户或Twitter用户。

People don't think of themselves as Facebookers or Twitterians.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

那只是数亿人整天互相争斗的一个集合。

That's just a collection of hundreds of millions of people who just fight each other all day.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这就像一个格斗俱乐部。

It's a fight club.

Speaker 1

公司则是高度一致的,当你在公司的Slack上发布一个任务时,在全员会议上,公司Slack里大约100%的人都会去完成它,因此他们在这一点上高度一致。

A company is highly aligned where you'll put a task into the company's Slack and if you do an all hands, about 100% of the people in a company's Slack will do it, so they're highly aligned in that way.

Speaker 1

但在线社区通常并不高度一致。

But online communities don't tend to be highly aligned.

Speaker 1

在线社区更像是《权力的游戏》粉丝俱乐部那样的东西。

Online communities tend to be like a Game of Thrones fan club something like that.

Speaker 1

或者在推特账号上,你可能只有0.1%的人参与互动。

Or you know, on a Twitter account, you might get point 1% of people engaging with something.

Speaker 1

并不是100%。

It's not the 100%.

Speaker 1

如果你把公司的高度一致性与社区的规模结合起来,那就是一个高度一致的在线社区。

If you combine the degree of alignment of a company with the scale of a community, that's like what a highly aligned online community is.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以,要让一千人或一万人能够共同完成像在推特上一起点赞这样简单的事情。

So to get a thousand or 10,000 people who can collectively do something as simple as just all liking something on Twitter.

Speaker 1

例如,他们为什么会这么做?

For example, why would they do that?

Speaker 1

他们是一个电气工程师行会。

They're guild of electrical engineers.

Speaker 1

他们是一个平面设计师行会。

They're a guild of graphic designers.

Speaker 1

这个行会有一千人,每天都有人向行会求助,其他999个人都会帮助他。

And you've got a thousand people in this guild, and every day somebody is asking a favor from the guild, and the other 999 people are helping them out.

Speaker 1

例如,我刚启动了一个新项目,或者我想找一份新工作。

For example, I've just launched a new project, or I'd like to get a new job.

Speaker 1

有人能帮我一下吗?

Can somebody help me?

Speaker 1

诸如此类。

And so on.

Speaker 1

所以你付出是为了得到。

And so you kind of give to get.

Speaker 1

你在帮助社区里的其他人,这样逐渐积累善意,然后有时又会用掉它。

You're helping other people in the community, and you're kind of building up karma this way, and then sometimes you spend it down.

Speaker 1

像 Stack Overflow 就有这样的善意经济。

Like Stack Overflow has this karma economy.

Speaker 1

它并不是为了从中赚取巨额利润而设计的内部经济。

It's not meant to be an internal economy that is like making tons and tons of money off of.

Speaker 1

它更像是记分系统。

It's sort of the keep score.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这一点在社区层面高度一致。

That's a highly aligned on the community part.

Speaker 1

至于集体行动的能力,我刚才已经简单描述过了:至少,如果没有一千人,你发一条推文却没人转推或点赞,那你就谈不上一个高度一致的在线社区。

Then capacity for collective action, I just kind of described that, which is at a minimum, you you don't have a highly aligned online community unless you have a thousand people and you paste in a tweet and a thousand of them RT it or or like it.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

如果你连这点都做不到,那你就什么都没有。

If you can't even get that, you don't have something.

Speaker 1

如果你能做到这一点,那就至少具备了开展某种集体数字行动的基础,明白吗?

If you do have that, you have the basis for at least collective digital action on something, okay?

Speaker 1

你可以把这看作一群活动家。

And you can think of this as a group of activists.

Speaker 1

你可以把它想象成,比如我之前提到的行会,但假设他们是一群希望提高人们对“延缓衰老是可能的”这一认知的人。

You can think of it as for example, let's say I mentioned a guild, but let's say they're a group that wants to raise awareness of the fact that life extension is possible.

Speaker 1

每天都会有一条新的推文,关于二甲双胍的研究、辛克莱的研究,或者大卫·辛克莱。

Every day there's a new tweet on, I don't know, whether it's metformin research or Sinclair's work or David Sinclair.

Speaker 1

安德鲁·休伯曼在这里有一些不错的内容,或者也有专注于长寿领域的风险投资人。

Andrew Huberman has good stuff here, or there's a longevity VC.

Speaker 1

有很多人正在这个领域工作。

There's a bunch of folks working in this area.

Speaker 1

每天都有新的内容出现,而这个在线社区的真正目的就是提高人们对长寿的认知,这一千人中有970人会去点赞,这已经很不错了。

Every day there's something there, and literally the purpose of this online community is raise awareness of longevity, and of the thousand people, 970 go and like that, that's pretty good.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这很扎实。

That's solid.

Speaker 1

你已经拥有了一些东西,或者你有了一个聚焦点,对吧?

You've got something or you've got a laser, right?

Speaker 1

你有了一个可以专注的方向,因为大部分Web2互联网都像热带雨林一样杂乱。

You've got something which you focus on something because most of the Web2 Internet is in Tropic.

Speaker 1

你去Hacker News、Reddit或Twitter,马上就会发现那里充斥着三十件随机的事情。

You go to Hacker News, you go to Reddit, you go to Twitter, and you're immediately struck by the fact that it's like 30 random things.

Speaker 1

随机的。

Random.

Speaker 1

这就像一盒巧克力。

It's just a box of chocolates.

Speaker 1

本该如此。

It's meant to be

Speaker 0

有些看着很好吃。

Some of them look delicious.

Speaker 1

有些看着很好吃。

Some of them look delicious.

Speaker 1

新奇感,我们可能会过度消费新奇感。

Novelty, we can over consume novelty.

Speaker 1

我们之前谈到过传统与创新之间的平衡,这里有一个不同的版本:由于新奇感而导致熵朝无数方向扩散, versus 专注。

So we were talking about earlier the balance between tradition and innovation, Here is a different version of that which is entropy going in a ton of different directions due to novelty versus focus.

Speaker 1

这就像热能与功的区别。

It's like heat versus work.

Speaker 1

热是热带的,而力沿着一段距离作用,你是在朝某个方向前进,对吧?

Heat is and tropic and work force along a distance, you're going in a direction, right?

Speaker 1

所以如果下一个版本的 Hacker News 或 Reddit 上那 30 个链接特别精彩,那你就相当于升级了。

And so if those 30 links on the next version of Hacker News or Red or something like so brilliant, it's just that's leveling you up.

Speaker 1

你点击的这 30 件事,实际上就是因此获得了一项技能,对吧?

The 30 things you click, you've just gained a skill as a function of that, right?

Speaker 1

所以这些在线社区,我不知道它们会是什么样子。

So these kinds of online communities, I don't know what they look like.

Speaker 1

它们可能看起来和现在的社交媒体完全不同。

They probably don't look like the current social media.

Speaker 1

就像举个例子,我知道这是个元类比,但在 2000 年代,人们以为用于工作的 Facebook 会和 Facebook 一样。

Just like for example, I know this is meta analogy, but in the 2000s people thought Facebook for Work would look like Facebook.

Speaker 1

大卫·萨克斯发现了并出售了 Yammer 这家公司,其部分理念正是基于这一点。

And David Sachs found and sold the company Yammer that was partially on their basis.

Speaker 1

它还不错。

It was fine.

Speaker 1

那是一家价值十亿美元的公司。

Was a billion dollar company.

Speaker 1

但适用于工作的Facebook实际上是Slack,对吧?

But Facebook for Work was actually Slack, right?

Speaker 1

它的样子不同。

It looked different.

Speaker 1

它更注重聊天,而不是图片之类的。

It was more chat focused, it was less image focused and whatnot.

Speaker 1

一个高度协同的在线社区平台会是什么样子?

What does the platform for a highly aligned online community look like?

Speaker 1

我认为Discord是过渡状态,但不是最终形态。

I think Discord is the transitional state, but it's not the end state.

Speaker 1

Discord有点聊天导向。

Discord is sort of chatty.

Speaker 1

工作并不是在Discord本身完成的,对吧?

The work isn't done in Discord itself, Right?

Speaker 1

用于追踪或记录人们贡献的加密货币,确实不是在Discord本身内完成的。

The cryptocurrency for tracking or the Cryptocarma for sure tracking people's contributions is not really done in Discord itself.

Speaker 1

Discord并不是为此而设计的。

Discord was not built for that.

Speaker 1

是的。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

我不知道这样的用户体验会是什么样子。

And I don't know what that UX looks like.

Speaker 1

也许它看起来像任务,你知道,也许它会呈现出不同的形式。

Maybe it looks like tasks, you know, like may maybe it looks something different.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

等等。

So wait.

Speaker 0

等等。

Wait.

Speaker 0

等等。

Wait.

Speaker 0

等等。

Wait.

Speaker 0

让我再仔细想想这个。

Let me linger on this.

Speaker 0

当然,实际上可能有些人根本不熟悉 Discord 或 Slack 之类的平台。

Sure, we're actually there's some people might not be even familiar with Discord or Slack or so on.

Speaker 0

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

就连这些平台本身也都关联着各自的社群。

Even these platforms have, like, communities associated with them.

Speaker 0

意思是,那些了解这些平台功能、知道可以做某些事情的人,构成了一个更大的社群。

Meaning, the the big the, like, the meta community of people who are aware of the feature set and that you can do a thing.

Speaker 0

大家知道这是个功能,然后就可以用它来做点什么。

That this is a thing, and then you could do a thing with it.

Speaker 0

Discord,当我第一次意识到这一点时,我觉得它起源于游戏界

Discord, like, when I first realized that, I think it was born out of the gaming world

Speaker 1

是的

Yes.

Speaker 0

这简直太惊人了

Is like, holy shit.

Speaker 0

这确实是个东西

This is like a thing.

Speaker 0

有很多人使用它

There's a lot of people that use this.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 0

Discord 还有一种非常难以摆脱的文化,这种文化贯穿了 Discord 内的所有不同社区

There's also a culture that's very difficult to escape that's associated with Discord that spans all the different communities within Discord.

Speaker 0

Reddit 也是同样的情况

Reddit is the same.

Speaker 0

尽管有不同的子版块,但由于迁移现象,Reddit 仍然形成了一种独特的文化。

Even though there's different subreddits, there's still because of the migration phenomenon maybe, there's still a culture to Reddit and so on.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

所以我想试着深入探究一下,形成在线社区的因素与这些社区所依托的平台之间有何不同。

So I I I'd like to sort of try to dig in and understand what's the difference between the online communities that are formed and the platforms on which those communities are formed.

Speaker 0

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 0

很重要。

Important

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

确实如此。

It is.

Speaker 1

确实如此。

It is.

Speaker 1

比如说,一个设计良好的办公室通常会有公共区域,比如餐厅或集会区,而其他每个人则有自己的私人空间,可以在边缘退避。

So for example, an office a good design for an office is frequently you have, you know, the the commons, which is like the lunchroom or the gathering area, then everybody else has a cave on the border they can kind of retreat to.

Speaker 0

在公共区域中的私人空间。

Cave in the commons.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,我内心在笑关于热和工作之间的对比。

I love by the way, I was laughing internally about the heat versus work.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个说法会一直留在我心里。

I think that's gonna stick with me.

Speaker 0

这是看待推特的一种非常有趣的方式。

That's such an interesting way to see Twitter.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

这到底是热度,还是这个帖子本身?因为有很多事情在发生。

Like, is this heat or is this is this thread like, because there's a lot of stuff going on.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

这仅仅是情绪宣泄,还是说我们其实是在做某种有明确目标的、有成效的事情呢?

Is it just heat or we're doing some, like, is it is there a directed thing productive at the end of the day?

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 0

我喜欢这个说法,我以前从来没见过,不管怎样,‘公共空间中的私人角落’这个概念真的很棒。

Love is I've never seen I mean, anyway, the cave in the commons is is really nice.

Speaker 0

这与一个高效办公空间的布局有关。

So that has to do with the layout of an office that's effective.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

因此,你可以把许多类型的社交网络看作处于‘私人角落’与‘公共空间’这一连续体上。

And so you can think of many kinds of social networks as being on the cave and commons continuum.

Speaker 1

比如,Twitter 完全就是公共空间。

For example, Twitter is just all commons.

Speaker 1

所谓的‘私人角落’只是个人私信或私信线程之类的,但本质上,它主要就是一个巨大的全球性公共争吵场。

The caves are just like individual DMs or DM threads or whatever, but it's really basically just one gigantic global public fight club for the most part.

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