本集简介
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以下是与亚马逊和蓝色起源创始人杰夫·贝佐斯的对话。
The following is a conversation with Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin.
这是他第一次进行这种类型且如此长时间的对话。
This is his first time doing a conversation of this kind and of this length.
正如他告诉我的,我们本可以轻松地聊上更多小时,我相信我们以后还会再聊。
And as he told me, it felt like we could have easily talked for many more hours, and I'm sure we will.
现在简要提及一下每位赞助商。
And now a quick few second mention of each sponsor.
请在描述中查看他们。
Check them out in the description.
这是支持这个播客的最佳方式。
It's the best way to support this podcast.
我们使用Notion进行团队协作,使用Policygenius购买保险,使用MasterClass学习,使用Eight Sleep小憩,以及使用InsideTracker获取生物数据。
We got Notion for team collaboration, Policygenius for insurance, MasterClass for learning, Eight Sleep for naps, and InsideTracker for biological data.
朋友们,请明智选择。
Choose wisely, my friends.
另外,如果你想要加入我们出色的团队,我们一直在招聘,详情请访问 lexfreedman.com/hiring。
Also, if you want to work with our amazing team, we're always hiring, go to lexfreedman.com/hiring.
如果你因为其他原因想联系我,比如推荐嘉宾,可以访问 lexfreedman.com/contact,就像和外星人联系一样。
And if you wanna get in touch with me for other reasons, like guest suggestions, you can go to lexfreedman.com/contact, like with the aliens.
但这次是和我联系。
But in this case, it's with me.
现在进入完整的广告播报环节。
And now on to the full ad reads.
中间始终没有插播广告。
There's always no ads in the middle.
我努力让这些内容有趣,但如果你非得跳过,朋友们,请依然去了解一下我们的赞助商。
I try to make this interesting, but if you must skip them, friends, please still check out our sponsors.
我喜欢他们的产品。
I enjoy their stuff.
也许你也会喜欢。
Maybe you will too.
本节目由Notion赞助,这是一款我用了很久的笔记应用,但它不仅仅用于记笔记。
This show is brought to you by Notion, a note taking app that I've been using forever, but it's not just for note taking.
它还用于团队协作,而且已经这么做了很久。
It's also for team collaboration, and it's been doing that forever.
但最近,它还新增了Notion AI工具提供的AI功能。
But recently, it also has the extra added AI capabilities with the Notion AI tool.
显然,每个人都想弄清楚如何将LLM的进展、持续进步、加速进步以及无尽的LLM进步融入我们的日常工作生活中。
Obviously, everybody's trying to figure out how to integrate the progress with LLMs, the continued progress, the accelerating progress, the boundless progress with LLMs into our productive lives.
对我来说,显然,记笔记、将文字写在纸上,是解决智力难题、思考问题、设计事物、总结内容、解读信息等过程的一部分。
To me, obviously, the note taking, the putting words onto paper as part of the process of figuring out intellectual puzzles, of thinking through things, designing things, summarizing things, interpreting things, all of that.
这就是写作的过程。
That's the writing process.
将AI整合到这一过程中,帮助你就像有个伙伴一样,显然是非常有力的。
And integrating AI into that to help you, almost like a buddy, is obviously empowering.
但这里有个界面问题:如何做好这一点。
But there's an interface question, how to do that well.
对我来说,Notion 在这方面比迄今为止我用过的任何工具都更出色。
And to me, Notion does that better than any tool I've used so far.
Notion AI 现在可以利用你维基、项目、文档和会议笔记中的信息,即时回答你的问题。
Notion AI can now give you instant answers to your questions using information from across your Wiki, projects, docs, and meeting notes.
前往 notion.com/lex 免费试用 Notion AI。
Try Notion AI for free when you go to notion.com/lex.
全部小写:notion.com/lex,今天就体验 Notion AI 的强大功能。
That's all lowercase, notion.com/lex to try the power of Notion AI today.
本节目还由 Policygenius 赞助,这是一个寻找和购买人寿保险的平台。
This show is also brought to you by Policygenius, a marketplace for finding and buying life insurance.
我几乎每一次对话,无论以何种方式,都会思考、探索、斟酌一个简单的事实:我们的死亡性,所有体验的有限性,人类体验的有限性,以及构成人类体验的每一种经历——无论是好是坏。
Almost every single conversation I have in different ways, I ponder, I explore, I deliberate the simple fact of our mortality, the finiteness of every experience, the human experience, but every experience that makes up the human experience, the good and the bad.
我认为提出这个话题很重要,因为对于人类这种会自我反思的生物来说,这正是一个重大问题,尤其是对于那些试图解开人类处境之谜的人。
I think bringing that up as a topic is important because it is one of the big questions for the introspecting animal that is a human being, for somebody who's trying to figure out the puzzle of the human condition.
为什么它必须结束?
Why does it have to end?
它必须结束,这是一件好事吗?
Is it good that it has to end?
它的终结这一事实,如何影响我们睁开眼睛感受体验之美时,每一个瞬间的丰富性?
How does the fact of it ending play with the richness of the experience of every moment that we feel when we open our eyes to the beauty of that experience?
这些问题很好,但它们也能让你进入正确的思维状态,去探索其他问题。
Those are good questions, but they also put you in the right mindset to explore the other questions.
工程的细节、商业和科学的细节,所有这些在以思考自身死亡为背景时,都会变得更为真切、更加突出。
The details of engineering, the details of business and science, all of that are somehow made more visceral, more intensely salient when grounded in the context of pondering one's own mortality.
这就是我尝试这样做的原因。
That's why I tried to do it.
我想,Policygenius希望你思考自己的死亡,并为此采取行动——这是一种务实的角度。
And I guess Policygenius wants you to ponder your mortality and do something about it, a pragmatic angle.
通过Policygenius,你可以找到每年仅需292美元即可获得100万美元保障的寿险保单。
With Policygenius, you can find life insurance policies that start at just $292 a year for $1,000,000 of coverage.
前往policygenius.com/lex,或点击描述中的链接,获取免费的寿险报价,看看你能节省多少。
Head to policygenius.com/lex or click the link in the description to get your free life insurance quotes and see how much you could save.
这是 policygenius.com/lex。
That's policygenius.com/lex.
本节目还由 MasterClass 赞助。
This show is also brought to you by MasterClass.
每月 10 美元,即可获得通配通行证,观看全球顶尖人物在各自领域的课程。
$10 a month gets you an all access pass to watch courses from the best people in the world in their particular thing.
这才是你应该学习的方式。
That's how you should learn.
你应该想办法去聆听、接近那些在你感兴趣领域中最出色的人。
You should try to find a way to listen to, to get close to the people that are the best at a thing that you're interested in.
这并不是学习的唯一方式。
That's not the only way to learn.
教科书、教程、讲座和关于某个主题的书籍都很不错。
Textbooks, tutorials, lectures, books about a thing are good.
但真正实践这些事的人,不仅在他们的解释中透露出一些东西,更体现在他们构建解释的方式、思考如何用词语引导解释的形成,而当你聆听这些大师课程时,所有这些都会变得格外清晰。
But the doers of the thing reveal something not just in their explanations, but in how they construct the explanations, how they think about the words that lead to the formation of the explanations, and all of that becomes salient when you just listen to these master classes.
现在成为老师的是那些实践者,但他们首先都是实践者。
It's the doers that now have become teachers, but they were doers first.
总之,克里斯·哈特菲尔德、威尔·赖特、卡洛斯·桑塔纳、丹尼尔·内格雷诺、尼尔·盖曼、马丁·斯科塞斯。
Anyway, Chris Hatfield, Will Wright, Carlos Santana, Daniel Negreno, Neil Gaiman, Martin Scorsese.
我真希望能在这档播客里和马丁·斯科塞斯聊聊。
I would love to talk to Martin Scorsese in this podcast.
可供选择的课程实在太多了。
There's just a lot of classes to choose from.
我提到的这些是我个人特别喜欢的,但可能还有许多其他不错的课程。
The ones I mentioned are the ones I've personally enjoyed, but maybe there's many others.
也许你可以写信给我,推荐一些对你影响特别大的课程。
Maybe you can write to me and recommend ones that were really impactful to you.
在 masterclass.com/lexpod 注册,即可无限访问所有大师课,并享受年度会员额外15%的折扣。
Get unlimited access to every master class and get an additional 15% off an annual membership at masterclass.com/lexpod.
网址是 masterclass.com/lexpod。
That's masterclass.com/lexpod.
本集节目还由Eight Sleep赞助。
This episode is also brought to you by Eight Sleep.
我不明白为什么我说话这么轻声细语,但每当我提到Eight Sleep,我就会想到自己小憩时的情景,以及那时笼罩四周的宁静平和。
I don't know why I'm speaking like this quietly because when I mention Eight Sleep, I think about myself napping and the calm peace that overtakes my surrounding environment when I'm napping.
在冰冷的床上盖着温暖的毯子,这简直是天堂的一小部分。
On a cold bed with a warm blanket, it's a little sampling of heaven.
无论我此刻感觉如何,哪怕我正为某件事感到极度糟糕。
No matter how I'm feeling, I could be feeling totally shitty about whatever thing.
我可能很生气。
I could be angry.
我可能很难过。
I could be sad.
我可能感到孤独。
I could be lonely.
所有这些情绪。
All of these things.
人类思维所能经历的各种情绪轨迹,最终都会得到化解。
All of the different emotional trajectories that the human mind can take you on somehow get all resolved.
打个好盹之后,所有的结都会解开,一切又变得简单起来。
The knots get untied, and everything becomes simple again after a good nap.
所以,朋友们,请认真对待小睡。
So take the naps seriously, friends.
它们是治愈生活中诸多烦恼的良方。
They are the cure for many of life's ills.
如果你想像我一样,以正确的方式小睡,那就应该使用Eight Sleep。
And if you wanna do your naps the way I do my naps, the right way, you should use Eight Sleep.
前往 8sleep.com/lex,即可享受专属优惠。
Check it out and get special savings when you go to 8sleep.com/lex.
本节目还由InsideTracker赞助,这是我用来追踪身体生物数据的服务。
This show is also brought to you by InsideTracker, a service I use to track biological data that comes from my body.
这台复杂而层级分明的生物机器,会发出无穷无尽的信号,而我们在做健康、生活方式、饮食或其他生活决策时,却大多忽视了这些信号。
This complex hierarchical biological machine that provides an infinity of signals, most of which are ignored when we make health, lifestyle, diet, whatever decisions, life decisions.
未来正在设计机器学习系统,这些系统不会忽视这些信号,而是利用这些信号,将它们与当今最前沿的科学研究相结合,为你提供关于如何生活的建议。
The future is designing systems, machine learning systems that don't ignore those signals, that leverage those signals, combine them, integrate them with the best scientific work of the day to give you advice on what to do with your life.
而InsideTracker正在朝着这个在我看来充满光明的未来迈进。
And InsideTracker is taking steps towards that bright to me, future.
他们通过你的血液数据、DNA数据、健身追踪器数据等,为你提供生活方式建议。
So they're using data from your blood, from DNA data, fitness tracker data, all of that to give you lifestyle recommendations.
我非常高兴他们正在推动这类工作向前发展。
I'm really glad they are pushing this kind of work forward.
访问insidetracker.com/lex,即可享受限时特惠。
Get special savings for a limited time when you go to insidetracker.com/lex.
这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。
This is the Lex Fridman podcast.
现在,亲爱的朋友,有请杰夫·贝佐斯。
And now, dear friends, here's Jeff Bezos.
你童年时在德克萨斯州的牧场里和外祖父度过了很多时光。
You spent a lot of your childhood with your grandfather on a ranch here in Texas.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我听说你在牧场干了很多活。
And I heard you had a a lot of work to do around the ranch.
那你记得在那里做过最酷的工作是什么?
So what's the coolest job you remember doing there?
哇。
Wow.
最酷的。
Coolest.
最有趣的。
Most interesting.
最难忘的。
Most memorable.
最难忘的。
Most memorable.
最有影响力的一次。
Most impactful.
那是一个真正运作的牧场。
Was a real it's a real working ranch.
我和我从四岁到十六岁,每年夏天都在那个牧场度过。
My and I I spent all my summers on that ranch from age four to 16.
在那些夏天,我祖父真的带着我。
And my grandfather was really taking me those in the summers.
在早期的夏天,他让我假装在牧场帮忙。
In the in the early summers, he was letting me pretend to help on the ranch.
因为当然,一个四岁的孩子在现实生活中是负担,而不是帮手。
Cause of course, a four year old is a burden, not a help in real life.
他其实只是看着我,照顾我。
He can really just watching me and taking care of me.
他这么做是因为我妈妈太年轻了。
And he was doing that because my mom was so young.
她17岁就生了我,所以他算是给她一点喘息的空间。
She had me when she was 17, and so he was sort of giving her a break.
我的祖父母会在这些夏天带我去那里。
And my grandmother and my grandfather would take me for these summers.
但随着我渐渐长大,我实际上开始在牧场帮忙,而且我非常喜欢。
But as I got a little older, I actually was helpful on the ranch, and I loved it.
我整天待在那里,我的祖父对我影响巨大,是我生命中的重要因素。
I was out there like, my grandfather had a huge influence on me, huge factor in my life.
我做了牧场里所有该做的工作。
I did all the jobs you would do on a ranch.
我修过风车,铺设过围栏和管道,做过所有牧场主会做的事,给动物打疫苗,等等。
I've fixed windmills and laid fences and pipelines and, know, done all the things that any rancher would do, vaccinated the animals, everything.
但后来,我祖母去世时我大约12岁,我仍然继续去牧场。
But we had a you know, my grandfather after my grandmother died, I was about 12, and I kept coming to the ranch.
那时就只剩下他和我,只有我们两个人。
So it was then it was just him and me, just the two of us.
他完全沉迷于肥皂剧《我们的日子》。
And he was completely addicted to the soap opera, the days of our lives.
我们每天大约下午一点都会回到牧场的房子,看《我们的日子》。
And we would go back to the ranch house every day around 1PM or so to watch days of our lives.
如沙漏中的沙子,我们的日子就这样流逝。
Like sands through an hourglass, so are the days of our lives.
只是想象那个画面,两个人
Just the image of that, the two
坐在那里
girls sitting there
看着肥皂剧
watching a soap opera
又大又疯狂的狗。
Big and crazy dogs.
那对我来说是一段非常塑造人生的经历。
It was really a very formative experience for me.
但对我来说,关键在于,我从中学到的宝贵财富是,我的祖父非常能干。
But the key thing about it for me, the the the great gift I got from it was that my grandfather was so resourceful.
你知道,他所有事情都自己动手。
You know, he did everything himself.
他自制了兽医工具。
He made his own veterinary tools.
他会制作缝合牛只的针线。
He would make needles to suture the cattle up with.
比如,他会找一小段金属丝,加热后锤打变薄,钻个孔,再磨尖。
Like, he would find a little piece of wire and heat it up and pound it thin and drill a hole in it and sharpen it.
所以在牧场上学到的东西,和在城市里长大所学的完全不同。
So you learn different things on a ranch than you would learn, you know, growing up in a city.
所以是自力更生。
So self reliance.
是的。
Yeah.
就像明白,只要有足够的毅力和创造力,就能解决问题。
Like figuring out that you can solve problems with enough persistence and ingenuity.
我祖父买了一台D6推土机,那是台大型推土机,他花5000美元买下的,因为当时它完全坏了。
My grandfather bought a d six bulldozer, which is a big bulldozer, and he got it for $5,000 because it was completely broken down.
那是一台1955年的卡特彼勒D6推土机。
It was like a 1955 Caterpillar d six bulldozer.
我知道如果买新的,价格肯定超过十万美元。
Knew it would have cost, I don't know, more than a $100,000.
我们整个夏天都在修理那台推土机。
And we spent an entire summer fixing, like repairing that bulldozer.
我们会通过邮购订购变速箱的大齿轮,它们运到后,
And we'd, you know, use mail order to to buy big gears for the transmission, and they'd show up.
因为太重了搬不动,我们就得自己搭一个起重机。
They'd be too heavy to move, so we'd have to build a crane.
就是这种解决问题的思维方式。
You know, just that kind of kind of that problem solving mentality.
他做得特别有力量。
He had it so powerfully.
你知道吗?
You know?
他所有事情都是自己做的,他根本不会打电话找别人。
He he did all of his own he just he he didn't pick up the phone and call somebody.
他会自己想办法解决。
He would figure it out on his own.
他自己做兽医的工作,你知道吗?
He doing his own veterinary work, you know?
但一想到你们俩在修理D6推土机,然后下午一点钟休息一下看
But just the image of the two of you fixing a d six bulldozer and then going in for a little break at 1PM to watch
肥皂剧。
soap opera.
躺在地板上。
Laying on the floor.
他就是这样看电视的。
That's how he watched TV.
是的。
Yeah.
他真是一个非常了不起的人。
He was a really, really remarkable guy.
这就是我想象克林特·伊斯特伍德的样子,你知道的,那些西部片里,当他不在做他那些事的时候。
That's how I imagine Clint Eastwood also You know, all those westerns when he's when he's not doing what he's doing.
他只是在看肥皂剧。
He's just watching soap operas.
好吧。
Alright.
我读到说,你是在小时候对太空和太空探索产生兴趣的。
I read that you fell in love with the idea of space and space exploration when
你当时
you were
五岁的时候,看着尼尔·阿姆斯特朗在月球上行走。
five, watching Neil Armstrong walking on the moon.
所以请让我请你回顾一下那个时代的历史背景和影响。
So let me ask you to look back at the historical context and impact of that.
从1957年到1969年,苏联和美国之间的太空竞赛,在许多方面都堪称史诗级。
So the space race from 1957 to 1969 between The Soviet Union and The US was, in many ways, epic.
那是一连串迅速发生的戏剧性事件。
It was a rapid sequence of dramatic events.
第一颗人造卫星进入太空,第一位人类进入太空,第一次太空行走,第一次无人登月,随后双方都经历了失败、爆炸和死亡,最终迎来了第一位人类踏上月球。
First satellite to space, first human to space, first spacewalk, first uncrewed landing on the moon, then some failures, explosions, deaths on both sides, actually, and then the first human walking on the moon.
在那个时代,那短短的十二年里,有哪些让你深受鼓舞的时刻或感悟?
What are some of the more inspiring moments or insights you take away from that time, those few years, that just twelve years?
嗯,那里有太多令人振奋的地方了。
Well, I mean, there's so much inspiring there.
其中一个值得铭记的深刻见解,来自冯·布劳恩的一句名言:我越来越谨慎地使用‘不可能’这个词。
You know, one of the great things to take away from that, one of the great von Braun quotes is, I have I have come to use the word impossible with great caution.
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
因此,阿波罗计划的大故事就是,人们曾经用‘登月’来形容不可能完成的事情。
And so that's kind of the big story of Apollo is that things you know, the going to the moon was literally an analogy that people used for something that's impossible.
你知道的?
You know?
哦,是的。
Oh, yeah.
你会在人类登上月球的时候再做这件事。
You'll do that when when, you know, men walk on the moon.
是的
Yeah.
当然,这件事最终发生了。
And of course, it finally happened.
所以,我认为由于太空竞赛,这个时间被提前了。
So, you know, I think it was pulled forward in time because of the space race.
我认为,考虑到地缘政治影响以及投入的资源,情况确实如此。
I think, you know, with the geopolitical implications and, you know, how much resource was put into it.
你知道吗?在高峰期,这个项目每年将GDP的2%到3%投入到阿波罗计划中。
You know, at the peak, that program was spending, you know, two or 3% of GDP on the Apollo program.
投入了如此多的资源,我认为它被提前实现了。
So much resource that I think it was pulled forward in time.
我们实际上是在所谓该做这件事之前就完成了它。
Know, we kind of did it ahead of when we quote unquote should have done it.
是的。
Yeah.
因此,从这个角度看,它也是一项技术奇迹。
And so in that way, it's also a technical marvel.
我的意思是,这真的令人难以置信。
I mean, it's truly incredible.
你知道,这就像二十世纪建造金字塔一样的壮举。
It's, you know, it's the twentieth century version of building the pyramids or something.
你知道,这是一个非凡的成就,因为它被提前实现,完成了以前被认为不可能的事情,理应跻身人类伟大成就的殿堂。
It's, you know, it's an achievement that because it was pulled forward in time, because it did something that had previously been thought impossible, It rightly deserves its place as, you know, in the pantheon of great human achievements.
当然,你把蓝色起源公司正在研发的项目和火箭以一些参与者的姓名命名。
And of course, you named the projects, the rockets that Blue Origin is working on after some of the folks involved.
是的。
Yeah.
我不明白我为什么没叫它‘新加加林’。
I don't understand why I didn't say New Gagarin.
这是
Is that
命名中带有美国中心主义倾向。
There's an American bias in the naming.
我很抱歉。
I apologize.
这非常奇怪。
It's very strange.
莱克斯。
Lex.
只是想问问
Just asking for
替朋友问的。
a friend.
解释一下。
Clarify.
不过,我非常崇拜加加林。
I'm a big fan of Gagarin's, though.
事实上,我认为他在太空中说的第一句话非常了不起。
Fact, I I think his his first words in space, I think, are incredible.
你知道,据称他说:‘天啊,它是蓝色的。’
He, you know, he purportedly said, my God, it's blue.
这真的让人印象深刻。
And that really drives home.
没有人从太空中见过地球。
No one had seen the Earth from space.
没有人知道我们生活在一颗蓝色的星球上。
No one knew that we were on this blue planet.
是的。
Yeah.
没有人知道从外面看它是什么样子。
No one knew what it looked like from out there.
加加林是第一个看到它的人。
And Gagarin was the first person to see it.
我常想到的一件事是,对于加加林、格伦以及所有参与早期任务的人来说,那些日子是多么危险。
One of the things I think about is how dangerous those early days were for Gagarin, for for Glenn, for everybody involved.
他们当时承担的风险究竟有多大?
Like, how how big of a risk they were all taking?
他们承担了巨大的风险。
They were taking huge risks.
我不确定苏联人对加加林的飞行有什么看法,但我认为美国人认为艾伦·谢泼德的飞行——也就是新谢泼德号命名所纪念的那次飞行——作为第一位进入太空的美国人,他进行的亚轨道飞行,成功率大约只有75%。
I'm not sure what the Soviets thought about Gagarin's flight, but I think that the Americans thought that the Alan Shepard flight, the flight that, you know, New Shepard is named after, the first American in space, he went on his suborbital flight, they thought he had about a 75% chance of success.
所以,你知道,这风险相当大,有25%的失败概率。
So, you know, that's a pretty big risk, a 25% risk.
有趣的是,艾伦·谢泼德的名气并没有约翰·格伦那么大。
It's it's kinda interesting that Alan Shepard is not quite as famous as John Glenn.
对于不了解的人,艾伦·谢泼德是第一位
So for people who don't know, Alan Shepard is the first
宇航员。
astronaut.
第一位进入太空的美国人。
The first American in space.
美国人在亚轨道飞行。
American in suborbital flight.
对。
Correct.
然后是第一次轨道飞行
And and then the first orbital flight
约翰·格伦是第一个绕地球飞行的美国人。
is John Glenn is the first American to orbit the Earth.
顺便说一下,我有一封约翰·格伦写的非常迷人、温馨、令人惊叹的信,我把它装裱起来挂在办公室墙上。
By the way, I have the most charming, sweet, incredible letter from John Glenn, which I have framed and hang on my office wall.
他在信里告诉我,他多么感激我们以他的名字命名了新格伦号。
Where he tells me how grateful he is that we have named New Glenn after him.
他在去世前大约一周给我寄了这封信。
And he sent me that letter about a week before he died.
这真的非常感人。
And it's really incredible.
这封信也很有趣。
It's also a very funny letter.
他写信说,这是一封来自最初的格伦关于新格伦的信。
He's writing and he says, you know, this is a letter about New Glenn from the original Glenn.
他很有幽默感,对此感到非常开心和感激。
And he's just he's got a great sense of humor, he's very he's very happy about it and grateful.
这真的很温馨。
It's very sweet.
他有没有说‘附言:别搞砸了’,还是说那只是
Does he say PS don't mess this up, or is that
他没有。
he doesn't.
让我显得很厉害。
Make me look good.
他不会那样做的。
He doesn't do that.
但是,约翰,无论你在哪里,我们都会支持你。
But but but John, wherever you are, we got you covered.
很好。
Good.
那么,让我们回到太空的大局观。
So so back to maybe the big picture of space.
当你仰望星空,胸怀远大时,你希望人类在未来的几百、几千年里在太空中走向怎样的未来?
When you look up at the stars and think big, what do you hope is the future of humanity hundreds, thousands of years from now out in space?
我希望能看到,有整整一万亿人类生活在太阳系中。
I would love to see, you know, a a, you know, a trillion humans living in the solar system.
如果我们有一万亿人口,那么在任何时刻,我们都会拥有上千个莫扎特和上千个爱因斯坦。
If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, a thousand Mozarts and a thousand Einsteins.
那样的话,我们的太阳系将充满生命、智慧与活力。
That would you know, our solar system would be full of life and intelligence and energy.
凭借太阳系中所有的资源,我们完全能够支撑如此庞大的文明。
And we can easily support a civilization that large with all of the resources in the solar system.
那么,你认为那会是什么样子?
So what what do you think that looks like?
巨大的太空站?
Giant space stations?
是的。
Yeah.
实现这一愿景的唯一途径就是建造巨大的太空站。
The only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations.
你知道,行星表面实在是太小了。
You know, the planetary surfaces are just way too small.
所以,我的意思是,除非你把它们改造成巨大的太空站之类的东西?
So you can I mean, unless you turn them into giant space stations or something?
但没错,我们会从月球、近地天体和小行星带等地获取材料,建造巨大的奥尼尔式殖民地,人们将生活在其中。
But but, yeah, we will take materials from the moon and from near Earth objects and from the asteroid belt and so on, And we'll build giant O'Neill style colonies and people will live in those.
它们相比行星表面有许多优势。
And they have a lot of advantages over planetary surfaces.
你可以让它们旋转以产生地球般的重力。
You can spin them to get normal earth gravity.
你可以把它们放在任何你想放的地方。
You can put them where you want them.
我认为大多数人会想住在地球附近,不一定是地球轨道上,而是在地球附近的轨道区域。
I think most people are gonna wanna live near earth, not necessarily in earth orbit, but in, you know, earth but near earth vicinity orbits.
这样他们就能相对快速地在空间站和地球之间往返。
And so they can move, you know, relatively quickly back and forth between their station and Earth.
所以,我认为很多人,尤其是在早期阶段,并不想完全放弃地球。
So but I don't I think a lot of people, especially in the early stages, are not gonna wanna give up Earth altogether.
他们去地球度假。
They they go to Earth for vacation.
是的。
Yeah.
就像你可能会去黄石国家公园度假一样。
Same way that, you know, you might go to to Yellowstone National Park for vacation.
人们将能够选择生活在地球上还是太空中,但他们能在太空中使用比在地球上多得多的能量和物质资源。
People will and the and no one and people will get to choose whether they live on Earth or whether they live in space, but they'll be able to use much more energy and much more material resource in space than they would be able to use on Earth.
你提出的一个有趣想法是把重工业移出地球。
One of the interesting ideas you had is to move the heavy industry away from Earth.
有些人有时认为,太空探索与赞美地球是相互冲突的,我们应该专注于保护地球。
So people sometimes have this idea that somehow space exploration is in conflict with the celebration of the planet Earth, that we should focus on preserving Earth.
而基本的观点是,太空旅行和太空探索才是保护地球的方式。
And and basically, idea is that space travel and space exploration is the way to preserve Earth.
没错。
Exactly.
这颗星球上,我们已经向所有行星发送了无人探测器。
This planet, we've sent robotic probes to all the planets.
我们知道,这是最好的一颗。
We know that this is the good one.
是的。
Yeah.
并不是要偏袒什么,
Not to play favorites or anything,
但地球确实是最好的星球。
but The Earth really is the good planet.
它真的很奇妙。
It's an it's it's amazing.
我们这里的生态系统,所有的生命、茂盛的植物、水资源,等等,一切都令人惊叹。
The ecosystem we have here, all of the life and the lush the plant life and, you know, the water resources, everything.
这个星球真的非同寻常。
This planet is really extraordinary.
当然,我们是在这个星球上进化而来的,所以它自然最适合我们。
And of course, we evolved on this planet, so of course, it's perfect for us.
但它也同样适合地球上所有的高级生命形式,所有的动物等等。
But it's also perfect for all the advanced life forms on this planet, all the animals and so on.
因此,这是一颗瑰宝。
And so this is a gem.
我们确实需要好好保护它。
We do need to take care of it.
随着我们进入人类世,随着人类变得越来越先进、庞大且对地球影响深远,当我们在这颗星球上不断前行时,我们将会需要消耗大量能源。
And as we enter the Anthropocene, as we get as we humans have gotten so sophisticated and large and impactful as we stride across this planet, you know, it's that is gonna as we continue, we want to use a lot of energy.
我们希望人均能源消耗量很大。
We want to use a lot of energy per capita.
我们已经取得了惊人的成就。
We've gotten amazing things.
我们不想倒退。
We we don't want to go backwards.
你知道,所谓的好日子,大多只是一种幻觉。
You know, if you think about the good old days, they're mostly an illusion.
在几乎所有方面,今天绝大多数人的生活都比五十年前或一百年前更好。
Like, in almost every way, life is better for almost everyone today than it was, say, fifty years ago or a hundred years.
总的来说,我们的生活比祖父母辈、曾祖父母辈的生活都要好得多。
We all we live better lives by and large than our grandparents did and their grandparents did and so on.
你可以在全球文盲率、全球贫困率和全球婴儿死亡率中看到这一点。
And you can see that in global illiteracy rates, global poverty rates, global infant mortality rates.
几乎你选择的任何指标,我们都比过去更好。
Like almost any metric you choose, we're better off than we used to be.
我们拥有了抗生素以及各种挽救生命的医疗护理,等等等等。
We get you know, antibiotics and all kinds of life saving medical care and so on and so on.
只有一件事在倒退,那就是自然世界。
And there's one thing that is moving backwards and it's the natural world.
事实上,五百年前,在工业时代之前,自然世界是原始而纯净的。
So it is a fact that five hundred years ago, pre industrial age, the natural world was pristine.
那真是令人惊叹。
It was incredible.
我们用一些这种原始的美丽,换来了作为先进社会所拥有的所有这些福祉。
And we have traded some of that pristine beauty for all of these other gifts that we have as an advanced society.
但我们可以两者兼得。
And we can have both.
但要做到这一点,我们必须进入太空。
But to do that, we have to go to space.
而所有这些中最根本的衡量标准是人均能源消耗。
And all of this really the most fundamental measure is energy usage per capita.
当你看到这一点时,你确实希望继续使用越来越多的能源。
And when you look at, you know, you do want to continue to use more and more energy.
这将在许多方面让您的生活变得更好。
It is going to make your life better in so many ways.
但这最终与生活在一颗有限的星球上是不相容的。
But that's not compatible ultimately with living on a finite planet.
因此,我们必须进入太阳系。
And so we have to go out into the solar system.
关于何时必须这样做,或许可以争论,但你无法合理地否认是否必须这样做。
And and really, could argue about when you have to do that, but you can't credibly argue about whether you have to do that.
最终,我们必须这么做。
Eventually, we have to do that.
没错。
Exactly.
嗯,你平时不太提这个,但让我
Well, you don't often talk about it, but let me
关于蓝色环形和轨道礁这两个太空基础设施项目,我想问问你的看法。
ask you on that topic about the Blue Ring and the Orbital Reef space infrastructure projects.
你对它们的愿景是什么?
What's your vision for these?
蓝色环形是一种非常有趣的航天器,设计用于将最多3000公斤的载荷送入地球同步轨道或月球附近。
So Blue Ring is a very interesting spacecraft that is designed to take up to 3,000 kilograms of payload up to geosynchronous orbit or in lunar vicinity.
它配备了两种不同的推进系统。
It has two different kinds of propulsion.
它既有化学推进,也有电推进。
It has chemical propulsion and it has electric propulsion.
因此,你可以用蓝色环形以几种不同的方式执行任务。
And so it can you can be you can use Blue Ring in a couple of different ways.
你可以用电力推进缓慢地移动,比如前往地球同步轨道,这可能需要一百天或一百五十天,具体取决于你携带的质量。
You can slowly move, let's say, to geosynchronous orbit using electric propulsion that might take, you know, a hundred days or a hundred and fifty days depending on how much mass you're carrying.
然后保留你的化学推进系统,以便在地球同步轨道上快速改变轨道。
And then and reserve your chemical propulsion so that you can change orbits quickly in geosynchronous orbit.
或者你可以先使用化学推进快速抵达地球同步轨道,然后再用电力推进缓慢调整你的地球同步轨道。
Or you can use the chemical propulsion first to quickly get up to geosynchronous and then use your electrical propulsion to slowly change your geosynchronous orbit.
Blue Ring 具有几个有趣的特性。
Blue Ring has a couple of interesting features.
它为这些有效载荷提供多种服务。
It provides a lot of services to these payloads.
因此,有效载荷可以是一个大型载荷,也可以是多个小型载荷。
So the payload it could be one large payload or it can be a number of small payloads.
它提供热管理。
And it provides thermal management.
它提供电力。
It provides electric power.
它提供计算能力和通信服务。
It provides compute, provides communications.
因此,当你为Blue Ring设计有效载荷时,无需自己解决所有这些问题。
And so when you design a payload for Blue Ring, you don't have it's you don't have to figure out all of those things on your own.
所以,制造抗辐射的计算系统是一件非常复杂的事情。
So kind of radiation tolerant compute is a complicated thing to do.
因此,Blue Ring上配备了异常大量的抗辐射计算资源,你的有效载荷在需要时可以直接使用。
And so we have an unusually large amount of radiation tolerant compute onboard Blue Ring, and you can your payload can just use that when it needs to.
所以,它实际上提供了一系列服务。
So it's a it's sort of all these services.
它就像一组API接口。
It's, you know, it's it's like a set of APIs.
这有点像亚马逊云服务,但专为空间应用设计。
It's a little bit like Amazon Web Services, but for Space.
适用于需要在地球附近或月球附近移动的空间有效载荷。
Space payloads that need to move about in Earth vicinity or lunar vicinity.
AWSS。
AWSS.
所以是太空中的计算能力。
So so compute in space.
你需要一枚巨大的化学火箭将有效载荷送入轨道,然后会有这些管理员出现,也就是Blue Ring,它负责管理各种计算资源。
So you get you get a giant chemical rocket to get a payload out to orbit, then you have these admins that show up, this Blue Ring thing that manages various things like compute.
没错。
Exactly.
它还能提供运输服务,将你转移到不同的轨道。
And it can it can also provide transportation and move you around to different orbits.
包括载人吗?你觉得呢?
Including humans, you you think?
不。
No.
但Blue Ring并不是设计用来运送人类的。
But Blue Ring is not designed to move humans around.
它的设计是用来运输有效载荷的。
It's designed to move payloads around.
好的。
Okay.
我们还在研制一个月球着陆器,当然,它的设计目标是将人类送上月球表面。
So we're also building a lunar lander, which is, of course, designed to land humans on the surface of the moon.
我想问问你关于这个的事。
I wanna ask you about that.
让我先退回到过去再说。
Well, let me let me actually just step back to the old days.
你当年在普林斯顿时,曾立志成为理论物理学家。
You were at Princeton with aspirations to be a theoretical physicist.
是的。
Yeah.
是什么吸引你投身物理学的?你后来为什么改变主意,没有成为著名的理论物理学家杰夫·贝索斯呢?
What attracted you to physics, and why did you change your mind and not become why why are not Jeff Bezos, the famous theoretical physicist?
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我非常喜欢物理,因此学习了物理和计算机科学。
So I loved physics, and I studied physics and computer science.
我当时正沿着物理这条路走下去。
And I was proceeding along along the physics path.
我计划主修物理。
I was planning to major in physics.
我想成为一名理论物理学家。
And I wanted to be a theoretical physicist.
而计算机科学只是我出于兴趣在做的事情。
And I and the computer science was sort of something I was doing for fun.
我真的很喜欢它。
I really loved it.
我在编程和相关事务上非常出色,非常喜欢所有的计算机科学课程。
And I and I was very good at the the programming and doing those things, I enjoyed all my computer science classes immensely.
但我真的决心成为一名理论物理学家。
But I really was determined to be a theoretical physicist.
这就是我当初选择普林斯顿的原因。
That's why I went to Princeton in the first place.
然后我意识到,我只会成为一个平庸的理论物理学家。
It was definitely And then I realized I was going to be a mediocre theoretical physicist.
在我的课堂上,比如量子力学之类的课程里,有几个人能轻松完成那些对我来说极其困难的事情。
And there were a few people in my classes, like in quantum mechanics and so on, who they could effortlessly do things that were so difficult for me.
我意识到,你知道,聪明的方式有千千万万种。
And I realized, like, you know, there are a thousand ways to be smart.
是的。
Mhmm.
而理论物理并不是那种只有顶尖的百分之几才能推动领域前沿的学科。
And to be a really you know, theoretical physics is not one of those fields where the you know, only the top few percent actually move the state of the art forward.
是的。
Mhmm.
这是一种你必须天生具备特定思维方式的领域。
It's one of those things where you you have to be really just your brain has to be wired in a certain way.
当时有个人,就是这些天才之一,让我彻底醒悟了。
And there was a guy named one of these people who was convinced me.
他本意并不是要说服我,但通过观察他,我意识到自己不该去当理论物理学家。
He didn't mean to convince me, but just by observing him, he convinced me that I should not try to be a theoretical physicist.
他叫约桑塔。
His name was Yosanta.
约桑塔来自斯里兰卡。
And Yosanta was from Sri Lanka.
他是我见过的最聪明的人之一。
And he's he was one of the most brilliant people I'd ever met.
有一晚,我和朋友乔在做一套非常难的偏微分方程习题。
My friend Joe and I were working on a very difficult partial differential equations problem set one night.
其中有一道题,我们花了三个小时都没做出来。
And there was one problem that we worked on for three hours.
我们完全没有任何进展。
And we made no headway whatsoever.
我们同时抬头对视,异口同声地说:‘圣诞老人。’
And we looked up at each other at the same time and we said, Santa.
于是我们去了Yo Santa的宿舍,是的。
So we went to Yo Santa's dorm room Yeah.
他在那里。
And he was there.
他几乎总是在那里。
He was almost always there.
我们对他说:‘Yo Santa,我们在这道偏微分方程上卡住了。’
And we said, Yo Santa, we're having trouble solving this partial differential equation.
您能帮我们看一下吗?
Would you mind taking a look?
他说:‘当然可以。’
And he said, of course.
顺便说一句,他是最谦逊、最善良的人。
By the way, he was the most humble, most kind person.
于是他看了看我们的题目,盯着看了几秒钟,大概十秒左右,然后说:余弦。
And so he took our he looked at our problem, and he stared at it for just a few seconds, maybe ten seconds, and he said, cosine.
我说:什么意思,Yo Santa?
And I said, what do you mean, Yosonta?
你说余弦是什么意思?
What do mean cosine?
他说:这就是答案。
He said, that's the answer.
我说:不,不,别开玩笑了。
And I said, no, no, come on.
他说:我给你演示一下。
And he said, me show you.
他拿出一张纸,写下了三页的方程式。
And he took out some paper, and he wrote down three pages of equations.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
所有项都相互抵消了。
Everything canceled out.
是的。
Mhmm.
答案就是余弦。
And the answer was Cosine.
我说,约桑塔,你是在脑子里算出来的吗?
And I said, Josanta, did you do that in your head?
他说,哦,不是。
And he said, oh, no.
那根本不可能。
That would be impossible.
几年前,我解决过一个类似的问题,我能把这个题目映射到那个问题上。
A few years ago, I solved a similar problem, and I could map this problem onto that problem.
于是很明显,答案就是余弦。
And then it was immediately obvious that the answer was Cosine.
我有过几次这样的经历,当你有这样的体验时,你会意识到,也许成为一名理论物理学家并不是宇宙为你安排的道路。
I had a few you know, you have an experience like that, you realize maybe being a theoretical physicist isn't sure isn't what you're you're you're what the universe wants you to be.
于是我转到了计算机科学,你知道,这对我来说非常成功。
And so I switched to computer science, and and, you know, that worked out really well for me.
我喜欢它。
I enjoy it.
直到今天我依然喜欢它。
I still enjoy it today.
是的。
Yeah.
要成为一名出色的物理学家,尤其是在应用物理领域,你需要一种特定的直觉。
There's a particular kind of intuition you need to be a great physicist in applied to physics.
我认为如今所需的数学能力已经非常高了。
I think the mathematical skill required today is so high.
如今,要成为一名成功的理论物理学家,你必须是世界级的数学家。
You have to be a world class mathematician to be a successful theoretical physicist today.
而且,你知道,你可能还需要其他技能,比如直觉、横向思维等等。
And it's not, you know, it you probably need other skills too, intuition, lateral thinking, and so on.
但如果没有顶尖的数学能力,你很难取得成功。
But without the without just top notch math skills, you're unlikely to be successful.
还有视觉化能力,必须能够真正进行这类思想实验。
And visualization skill, have to be able to really kinda do these kind of thought experiments.
如果你真的想要卓越的创造力,沃尔特·艾萨克森曾写到过你。
And if you wanted truly great creativity actually, Walter Isaacson writes about you.
它让你置身于
It puts you on
与爱因斯坦同等的水平。
the same level as Einstein.
嗯,他这么说真是太客气了。
Well, he's he's that's very kind.
我是个发明家。
I have I'm an inventor.
如果你要概括我是谁,我本质上是个发明家。
If you if you wanna boil down what I am, I'm really an inventor.
我观察事物,能想出非传统的解决方案,然后我可以为某个问题提出一百个这样的非传统方案。
And I look at things and I can come up with atypical solutions and, you know, and then I can create a 100 such atypical solutions for something.
其中九十九个可能经不起推敲。
99 of them may not survive, you know, scrutiny.
但那一百个中有一个可能行得通,然后你就可以从那里继续推进。
But one of those 100 is like, maybe there is maybe that might work, and then you can keep going from there.
这种横向思维,这种在高维空间中的创造力——搜索空间非常庞大——这就是我的发明能力所在。
So that kind of lateral thinking, that kind of inventiveness in a high dimensionality space where the search space is very large, that's where my inventive skills come.
我更愿意把自己定义为一个发明家,而不是其他任何身份。
That's the thing I'm if if I I self identify as an inventor more than anything else.
是的。
Yeah.
沃尔特·艾萨克森以各种方式描述了这种创造力与孩童般的探索精神的结合,而你至今仍保持着这一切。如果让你研究自己的大脑、进行内省,你会怎么想?
And he describes in all kinds of different ways Walter Eisenhower does that creativity combined with childlike wander that you've maintained still to this day, all of that combined together, is there like, if you were to study your own brain, introspect, how do you think?
你的思维过程是怎样的?
What's your thinking process like?
我们来谈谈把想法写在纸上的过程
We'll talk about the writing process of putting it down on paper
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
这在亚马逊是非常严谨且著名的。
Which is quite rigorous and famous at Amazon.
但当你坐下来,无论是独自一人还是与他人一起,思考这个高维空间并寻找创意解决方案、前进的创意路径时,你是怎么做的?
But how do you when you sit down, maybe alone, maybe with others, and thinking through this high dimensional space and looking for creative solutions, creative paths forward.
关于这个过程,你有什么可以分享的吗?
Is there something you could say about that process?
这是个非常好的问题,老实说,我不知道它是如何运作的。
It's such a good question, and I honestly don't know how it works.
如果我知道的话,我会试着解释它。
If I did, I would try to explain it.
我知道这个过程涉及大量的探索。
I know it involves lots of wandering.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,当我坐下来解决一个问题时,我知道自己并不知道最终会走向哪里。
So I you know, when I sit down to work on a problem, I know I don't know where I'm going.
因此,想要直线前进、追求效率,效率和创新实际上是相互矛盾的,因为真正的创新——不是渐进式的改进。
So to to go in a straight line, to be efficient, efficiency and invention are sort of at odds because invention real invention, not incremental improvement.
渐进式的改进在每一项事业和你所做的每件事中都至关重要。
Incremental improvement is so important in in every endeavor and everything you do.
你也必须努力工作,让事情变得更好一点点。
You have to work hard on also just making things a little bit better.
但我所说的是真正的创新,真正的横向思维。
But I'm talking about real invention, real lateral thinking.
这需要探索。
That requires wandering.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
你必须允许自己自由探索。
And you have to give yourself permission to wander.
我认为很多人觉得漫无目的的探索效率低下,比如当我坐下来开会时,如果我们在解决一个问题,我根本不知道会议会持续多久。
I think a lot of people, they feel like wandering is inefficient and should you know, like, when when I sit down at a meeting, I don't know how long the meeting is gonna take if we're trying to solve a problem.
因为如果我知道了,那就意味着我早已知道一条直达解决方案的直线路径。
Because if I did, then I'd already I could I'd know there's some kind of straight line that we're drawing to the solution.
现实是我们可能需要长时间地探索。
The reality is we may have to wander for a long time.
我喜欢群体性的创新。
And I do like group invention.
我认为没有什么比和一群聪明的人围在白板前,一起头脑风暴、提出想法、反驳这些想法、再针对反驳提出解决方案,如此反复来回更令人愉快了。
I think there's really nothing more fun than sitting at a whiteboard with a numb you know, a group of smart people and spitballing and coming up with new ideas and objections to those ideas and then solutions to the objections and going back and forth.
有时候你半夜醒来有了一个想法,有时候你和一群人坐下来反复讨论,这两种方式都让人非常愉悦。
So like, you know, sometimes you wake up with an idea in the middle of the night, and sometimes you sit down with a group of people and go back and forth, and both things are really pleasurable.
嗯。
Mhmm.
当你漫游时,我认为关键的一点是能察觉到一个好想法,或许去发现那个好想法的雏形,并抓住这条线索。
And when you wander, I think one key thing is to notice a good idea and to to to maybe to notice the kernel of a good idea, maybe pull up that string.
因为我不认为好想法是完整成型后才出现的。
Because I I don't think good ideas come fully formed.
完全正确。
A 100% right.
事实上,当我产生一个自认为不错的想法,并且它通过了我内心最初的审视,准备向别人讲述时,嗯。
In fact, when I come up with what I think is a good idea, and it survives kind of the first level of scrutiny, you know, that I do in my own head, and I'm ready to tell somebody else about the idea Mhmm.
我常常会说,你很容易就能找到这个想法的种种反驳之处。
I will often say, look, it is gonna be really easy for you to find rejections to this idea.
但请和我一起探讨。
But work with me.
这里面有东西。
There's something there.
那里有东西。
There's something there.
那就是直觉。
And that is intuition.
是的。
Yeah.
因为一开始很容易扼杀新想法,因为它们确实存在太多容易被质疑的地方。
You because it's really easy to kill new ideas in the beginning, because they do have so many there's so many easy objections to them.
所以你需要提前提醒别人,说:我知道要把这个想法完善起来需要很多努力。
So you need to you need to kind of forewarn people and say, look, I know it's gonna take a lot of work to get this to a fully formed idea.
让我们开始吧。
Let's get started on that.
这会很有趣。
It'll be fun.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以你骨子里还是有那种理解余弦的能力。
So you got that ability to say cosine in you somewhere after all.
也许不是在数学上,
Maybe not on math,
而是在别的领域。
but In a different domain.
是的。
Yeah.
聪明的方式有上千种,当我四处走动、遇见人们时,我总在寻找他们聪明在哪儿。
There are a thousand ways to be smart, by the And that is a really like, when I go around, you know, and and I meet people, I'm always looking for the way that they're smart.
你会发现,正是这一点让世界如此有趣和精彩,因为智商并不是单一的。
And you find it is that's one of the things that makes the world so interesting and fun is that it is not it's not like IQ is a single Yep.
维度。
Dimension.
有些人以如此独特的方式聪明着。
There are people who are smart in so such unique ways.
是的。
Yeah.
你刚刚给我的回应,就像有人在互联网上骂我是傻瓜时那样。
You just gave me a good response as when somebody calls me an idiot on the Internet.
你知道的?
You know?
先生,聪明的方式有千千万万种。
There's a thousand ways to be smart, sir.
嗯,我可以告诉你,但成功的途径有百万种。
Well, might tell you, yeah, but there are million to be ways to be done.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
我觉得这是马克·吐温的名言。
I feel like that's a Mark Twain quote.
好的。
Okay.
行吧。
Alright.
你带我参观了蓝色起源火箭工厂和位于历史性的卡纳维拉尔角的发射场。
You gave me an amazing tour of Blue Origin rocket factory and launch complex in the historic Cape Canaveral.
新格伦火箭——我们之前讨论过的那枚大型火箭——正在这里建造,并将从这里发射。
That's where New Glenn, the the big rocket we talked about is being built and will launch.
你能解释一下新格伦火箭是什么,并告诉我一些关于它工作原理的有趣技术细节吗?
Can you explain what the New Glenn rocket is and tell me some interesting technical aspects of how it works?
当然。
Sure.
新格伦是一种大型重型运载火箭。
New Glenn is a very large heavy lift launch vehicle.
它能将约45公吨的有效载荷送入近地轨道,属于非常庞大的级别。
It'll take about 45 metric tons to LEO, very very large class.
它的推力大约是土星五号火箭的一半,略多于一半。
It's about half the thrust, a little more than half the thrust of the Saturn five rocket.
因此,它在发射时的推力约为390万磅。
So it's about 3,900,000 pounds of thrust on lift off.
助推器配备了七台BE-4发动机。
The booster has seven BE four engines.
每台发动机产生的推力略高于55万磅。
The each engine generates a little more than 550,000 pounds of thrust.
发动机使用液化天然气(LNG)作为燃料,液氧(LOX)作为氧化剂。
The engines are fueled by liquid natural gas, liquefied natural gas, LNG, as the fuel and LOX as the oxidizer.
它采用的是富氧分级燃烧循环。
The cycle is an ox rich stage combustion cycle.
这种循环最初是由俄罗斯人开创的。
It's a cycle that was really pioneered by the Russians.
这是一种非常优秀的循环方式。
It's a very good cycle.
这款发动机还将为火神火箭的第一级提供动力,火神火箭是联合发射联盟的火箭。
And that engine is also going to power the first stage of the Vulcan rocket, which is the United Launch Alliance rocket.
然后,新格伦火箭的第二级由两台BE3U发动机提供动力,这是我们的新谢泼德液氢发动机的上面级版本。
Then the second stage of New Glenn is powered by two BE3U engines, which is a upper stage variant of our New Shepard liquid hydrogen engine.
因此,BE3U发动机的推力为160,000磅。
So the BE3U has 160,000 pounds of thrust.
所以两台这样的发动机,总推力为320,000磅。
So two of those, 320,000 pounds of thrust.
氢气是非常优秀的上面级推进剂,因为它具有极高的比冲。
And hydrogen is a very good propellant for upper stages because it has very high ISP.
但在我看来,氢气并不适合作为助推级推进剂,因为那样会使火箭级变得过于庞大。
It's not a great propellant in my view for booster stages because the stages then get physically so large.
氢气具有极高的比冲,但液氢的密度非常低。
Hydrogen has very high ISP, but liquid hydrogen is very is not dense at all.
因此,如果你需要储存数千磅的液氢,你的液氢储罐将会变得非常大。
So to store liquid hydrogen, you know, if you need to store many thousands of pounds of liquid hydrogen, your tanks, your liquid hydrogen tank gets very large.
所以你确实能从更高的比冲中获得更大好处。
So you really you get more benefit from the higher ISP, the specific impulse.
在第二级上,更高的比冲能带来更大优势。
You get more benefit from the higher specific impulse on the second stage.
而这一级携带的推进剂较少,因此不会出现几何尺寸极其庞大的储罐。
And that stage carries less propellant, so you don't get such geometrically gigantic tanks.
德尔塔四号就是一款完全使用氢燃料的运载火箭。
The Delta four is an example of a vehicle that is all hydrogen.
它的助推级也使用氢燃料。
The booster stage is also hydrogen.
我认为这是一款非常有效的火箭,但从来都不是成本效益很高的。
And I think that it's a very effective vehicle, but it never was very cost effective.
所以它在操作上非常强大,但成本效益不高。
So it's operationally very capable, but not very cost effective.
因此,体积大也会增加成本。
So size is also costly.
尺寸越大,成本越高。
Size is costly.
所以这很有趣。
So it's interesting.
火箭都喜欢越大越好。
Rockets love to be big.
是的。
Mhmm.
一切都会表现得更好。
Everything works better.
你这话是什么意思?
What do you mean by that?
你以前跟我提过这个。
You've told me that before.
听起来很壮观,
It sounds epic,
但真的是这样吗?
but was it?
我的意思是,当你观察火箭发动机的物理原理,以及考虑寄生质量时,情况并非如此。比如你有一个航电系统,也就是制导与控制系统。
I mean, when you look at the kind of the physics of rocket engines, and also when you look at parasitic mass, it doesn't if you have let's say you have an avionic system, so you have a guidance and control system.
无论对于巨型火箭还是微型火箭,这个系统的质量和体积都差不多。
That is going to be about the same mass and size for a giant rocket as it is going to be for a tiny rocket.
因此,这种寄生质量在制造小型火箭时影响巨大,但在制造大型火箭时却微不足道。
And so that's just parasitic mass that is very consequential if you're building a very small rocket, but is trivial if you're building a very large rocket.
所以你有寄生质量这个问题。
So you have the parasitic mass thing.
再比如,火箭发动机有涡轮泵。
And then if you look at, for example, rocket engines have turbo pumps.
它们必须将燃料和氧化剂加压到极高的压力,才能注入燃烧室进行燃烧。
They have to pressurize the fuel and the oxidizer up to a very high pressure level in order to inject it into the thrust chamber where it burns.
这些泵,实际上所有旋转机械,都会随着尺寸增大而变得更加高效。
And those pumps, all rotating machines in fact, get more efficient as they get larger.
所以,非常小的涡轮泵制造起来非常具有挑战性。
So really tiny turbo pumps are very challenging to manufacture.
而且,任何类型的间隙,比如壳体和加压燃料的旋转叶轮之间的间隙,
And any kind of gaps, you know, are like between the housing, for example, and the rotating impeller that pressurizes the fuel.
那里必须留有一些间隙。
There has to be some gap there.
你不能让这些部件相互刮擦。
You can't have those parts scraping against one another.
这些间隙会导致效率下降。
And those gaps drive inefficiencies.
所以,如果你有一个非常大的涡轮泵,这些间隙在百分比上就会变得非常小。
And so, you know, if you have a very large turbo pump, those gaps in percentage terms end up being very small.
因此,你会有很多喜欢大型火箭的地方,而对小型火箭则会感到厌恶。
And so there's a bunch of things that you end up loving about having a large rocket and that you end up hating for a small rocket.
但这个规则有一个巨大的例外,那就是制造。
But there's a giant exception to this rule, and it is manufacturing.
所以制造大型结构非常非常具有挑战性。
So manufacturing large structures is very, very challenging.
这真是让人头疼。
It's a pain in the butt.
因此,如果你在制造小型火箭发动机,你可以用手移动所有部件。
And so, you know, it's just you know, if you have if you're making a small rocket engine, you can move all the pieces by hand.
你可以在桌子上组装它。
You could assemble it on a table.
一个人就能完成。
One person can do it.
你不需要起重机、重型吊装设备、专用工具等等。
You don't need cranes and heavy lift operations and tooling and so on and so on.
当你开始建造大型物体、基础设施,比如发射台和所有这些设施时。
When you start building big objects, infrastructure, civil infrastructure, just like the launch pad and the you know, all this.
我们去参观了发射台,带你看了,你能看到它有多么宏伟。
We we went and visited and took you to the launch pad, and you can see it's so monumental.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此。
It is.
因此,这些事情从工程角度,以及从施工和成本角度来看,都变成了巨大的工程。
And so just these things become major undertakings, both from an engineering point of view, but also from a construction and cost point of view.
甚至发射台的地基。
And even the the foundation of the launch pad.
我的意思是,这是佛罗里达。
I mean, this is Florida.
这不是沼泽地吗?
Like, isn't it like swampland?
那得打多深啊
Like, how deep do At have to
卡纳维拉尔角,是的。
Cape Canaveral Yeah.
大多数发射台都建在海边,因为出于安全考虑,你希望火箭飞越海洋。
Infected most ocean, you know most launch pads are on beaches somewhere in the ocean side because you want to launch over water for safety reasons.
是的。
The yes.
你得打下数十根、数百根桩基,深度要达到50英尺、100英尺甚至150英尺,才能为这些巨大的结构提供足够的承载力,没错。
You have to drive pilings, you know, dozens and dozens and dozens of pilings, you know, 50, a 100, a 150 feet deep to get enough structural integrity for these very large you know, it's it's yes.
这些项目最终都变成了重大的土木工程。
These turn into major civil engineering projects.
我必须说,那个工厂的方方面面都太酷了。
I just have to say everything about that factory is pretty badass.
你提到设备,规模越大,就越显得宏伟。
You said tooling, The bigger it gets, the more the more epic it is.
这确实让它变得宏伟。
It does make it epic.
看它真的很有趣。
It's fun to look at.
这让人感到谦卑
It's It's humbling
因为人类相比之下实在太渺小了。
also because, you know, humans are so small compared to it.
我们正在建造这些庞大的机器,它们将巨大的化学能量压缩在极其紧凑的结构中。
We are building these enormous machines that are harnessing enormous amounts of chemical power, you know, in very, very compact packages.
这真的非同寻常。
It's truly extraordinary.
但还有各种不同的部件和你所知道的所涉及的材料。
But then there's all the different components and that you you know, the materials involved.
你能描述一下火箭所用材料中有什么特别之处吗?它必须尽可能轻,同时还要能承受高温和恶劣环境。
Is there something interesting that you can describe about the materials that's comprised of the rocket so it has to be as light as possible, I guess, whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions.
是的
Yeah.
我有时会跟遇到的其他火箭工程师玩一个小游戏:哪些东西会让上世纪六十年代的工程师感到震惊?
I play a little kind of game sometimes with other rocket people that I run into where so what are the things that would amaze the nineteen sixties engineers?
嗯。
Mhmm.
比如,有什么变化?
Like, what's changed?
因为是的。
Because Yeah.
令人惊讶的是,火箭技术的一些重大成就并没有改变。
Surprisingly, some of rocketry's greatest hits have not changed.
他们仍然能立即认出我们今天做的很多东西,这正是他们在六十年代开创的。
They are still they would recognize immediately a lot of what we do today, and it's exactly what they pioneered back in the sixties.
但有一些事情已经改变了。
But a few things have changed.
你知道,碳复合材料的使用今天大不相同了。
You know, the use of carbon composites is is very different today.
你知道,我们现在可以制造非常精密的设备——你见过我们的碳纤维缠绕机,它能制造巨大的整流罩。
You know, we can build very sophisticated you saw our carbon tape laying machine that builds the giant fairings.
我们可以用碳复合材料制造出这些极其轻盈、刚性极强的整流罩结构,这是他们当年根本无法想象的。
And we can build these incredibly light, very stiff fairing structures out of carbon composite material that they could not have dreamed of.
我的意思是,这种材料的效率和结构效率远高于任何金属材料或其他材料。
I mean, the the efficiency, the structural efficiency of that material is so high compared to any, you know, metallic material you might use or anything else.
所以这是第一点。
So that's one.
铝锂合金以及摩擦搅拌焊接铝锂合金的能力。
Aluminum lithium and the ability to friction stir weld aluminum lithium.
你还记得我给你展示过的摩擦搅拌焊接技术吗?
Do you remember the friction stir welding that I showed you?
这是一种了不起的技术。
This is a remarkable technology.
这项技术几十年前就被发明了,但直到最近二三十年才变得非常实用。
Was invented decades ago, but has become very practical over just the last couple of decades.
它不是用热量来焊接两块金属,而是直接将两块金属搅拌融合在一起。
And instead of using heat to weld two pieces of metal together, it literally stirs the two pieces.
有一个针以特定速度旋转,你将这个针放在想要焊接的两块金属板之间,然后以非常精确的速度移动它。它并不靠加热材料来焊接,而是因摩擦产生少量热量,但并不多。
There's a pin that rotates at a certain rate and you put that pin between the two plates of metal that you want to weld together and then you move it at a very precise speed And instead of heating the material it heats it a little bit because of friction, but not very much.
在完成摩擦搅拌焊接后,你几乎可以立即触摸材料,它只是微微发热。
You can literally immediately after welding with stir friction welding, you can touch the material and it's just barely warm.
它实际上是将分子搅拌在一起。
It's it literally stirs the molecules together.
这非常了不起。
It's quite extraordinary.
温度相对较低,而我猜高温会使材料出现弱点。
Relatively low temperature, and I guess high temperature is what makes them the the that's the weak that makes it a weak point.
没错。
Exactly.
在传统焊接技术中,无论材料本身的强度特性如何,焊接处往往会形成薄弱区域。
So in with traditional with traditional welding techniques, you may have whatever the underlying strength characteristics of the material are, you end up with weak regions where you weld.
而通过摩擦搅拌焊接,焊缝的强度与母材完全相当。
And with friction stir welding, the welds are just as strong as the bulk material.
所以它真的让你能够做到,比如你在建造一个加压罐时,像为我们的助推级建造一个大型液化天然气罐。
So it really allows you and so because when you're you know, let's say you're building a tank you're gonna pressurize, you know, a large, you know, liquid natural gas tank for our for our booster stage, for example.
如果你用传统方法焊接,你就得调整焊缝边缘的尺寸和这些部件的厚度,以补偿焊接造成的损伤,这会大大增加油箱的重量。
You know, if you are welding that with traditional methods, you have to size those weld lands, the thickness of those pieces with that knockdown for whatever damage you're doing with the weld, and that's gonna add a lot of weight to that tank.
我的意思是,仅看整流罩,它所呈现的复杂形状就是这样,而且。
I mean, even just looking at the fairings, the result of that, the the complex shape that it takes and Yeah.
而且,它要完成的功能其实非常惊人,因为有些人不知道它位于火箭顶部,是设计来分离的。
And, like, what it's supposed to do is is kind of incredible because some people don't know it's on top of the rocket, it's gonna fall apart.
这是它的任务,但它在需要时必须保持坚固。
That's its task, but it has to stay strong sometimes
是的。
Yes.
然后在需要时消失。
And then disappear when it needs to.
没错。
That's right.
这是一项非常困难的任务。
Which is a very difficult task.
是的。
Yes.
当你需要某物在必须完全失效之前保持100%的完整性时,它必须一直连接到准备分离的那一刻。
When you need something that needs to have 100% integrity until it needs to have 0% integrity, it needs to stay attached until it's ready to go away.
当它分离时,必须彻底消失。
And then when it goes away, it has to go away completely.
你用爆炸装置来实现这一点。
You use explosive charges for that.
因此,这是在需要时分离结构的一种非常可靠的方式。
And so it's a very robust way of separating structure when you need to.
爆炸。
Exploding.
对。
Yeah.
一点点炸药,就能直接切断整个连接。
Little tiny bits of explosive material, and it just it'll sever the whole connection.
所以如果你想从100%的结构完整性瞬间变为零,那就用炸药。
So if you wanna go from 100% structural integrity to zero as fast as possible, it's explosives.
用炸药。
Use explosives.
这整个东西简直太酷了。
Entirety of this thing is so badass.
好的。
Okay.
所以我们回到两个阶段。
So we're back to the two stages.
第一级是可重复使用的。
So the the first stage is reusable.
是的。
Yeah.
第二级是一次性的。
Second stage is expendable.
第二级使用液氢和液氧,因此我们可以利用更高的比冲。
Second stage is liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen, so we could take advantage of the higher specific impulse.
第一级在海洋中的着陆平台上着陆,返回后进行维护,为下一次任务做准备。
The the first stage lands downrange on a landing platform in the ocean, comes back for maintenance, and get ready to do the next mission.
我的意思是,问题有一百万个,但第二级也有实现可重复使用的方法吗?
I mean, there's a million questions, but also, is there a path towards reusability for the second stage?
有的,我们知道怎么做。
There is, and we know how to do that.
目前,我们专注于制造第二级,使其尽可能便宜。
Right now, we're gonna work on manufacturing that second stage to make it as inexpensive as possible.
对于第二级,大致有两种路径。
Sort of two paths for a second stage.
一种是让它可重复使用,另一种是竭尽全力降低成本,以便可以负担得起将其耗尽。
Make it reusable or work really hard to make it inexpensive so you can afford to expend it.
而且这种权衡实际上并不明显哪个更好。
And that trade is actually not obvious which one is better.
即使是成本方面,甚至是时间方面,成本也是如此。
Even in terms of cost, even like time Even in terms of cost.
我谈的是成本。
I'm talking about cost.
你知道吗,进入轨道的航天飞行已经是一个解决了的问题。
Is it you know, spaceflight getting into orbit is a solved problem.
我们在五十年代和六十年代就已经解决了这个问题。
We solved it back in, you know, the fifties and sixties.
你这让它听起来太简单了。
You're making it sound easy.
唯一有趣的问题是大幅降低进入轨道的成本,如果你能做到这一点,就能开启大量新的可能性,让许多初创公司和其他人都能参与其中。
The only thing that the only interesting problem is dramatically reducing the cost of access to orbit, which is if you can do that, you open up a bunch of new, you know, endeavors that lots of startup companies everybody else can do.
因此,我们的目标之一就是成为这一行业的一部分,降低进入轨道的成本,从而迎来一个太空探索的复兴与黄金时代,让每个人都能从事各种有趣的太空事业。
So that's we really that's our one of our missions is to, you know, be part of this industry and lower the cost to orbit so that there can be, you know, a kind of a renaissance, golden age of people doing all kinds of interesting things in space.
我喜欢你说的,进入轨道是个已经解决的问题。
I like how you said getting to orbit is a solved problem.
唯一有趣的事情就是降低成本。
It's just the only interesting thing is reducing the cost.
你能用这种方式描述人类文明面临的每一个问题吗?
You know you can describe every single problem facing human civilization that way?
物理学家会说,所有问题都已经被解决了。
Physicists will say, everything is a solved problem.
我们已经解决了所有问题。
We've solved everything.
剩下的,就像卢瑟福说的,只是集邮而已。
The rest is just well, as the Rutherford said that, it's just stamp collecting.
最伟大的创新、发明和智慧,其实都体现在成本降低的阶段。
There is just a detailed Some of the greatest innovations and inventions and, you know, brilliance is in that cost reduction stage.
对吧?
Right?
你有着长期致力于降低成本的经历。
And you've you've had a long career of cost reduction.
当然。
For sure.
当你想想,降低成本到底意味着什么?
And if, you know, when you what does cost reduction really mean?
它意味着发明一种更好的方法。
It means inventing a better way.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
对吧?
Right?
当你发明了一种更好的方法时,你就让整个世界变得更富裕。
And when you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer.
所以,你知道,不管那是多少年前,有人发明了犁。
So, you know, whatever it was, I don't know how many thousands of years ago, somebody invented the plow.
嗯。
Mhmm.
当他们发明犁的时候,他们让整个世界变得更富裕,因为他们让农业变得更便宜。
And when they invented the plow, they made the whole world richer because they made farming less expensive.
所以,发明更好的方法是一件大事。
And so it it is a big deal to to invent better ways.
世界就是这样变得更富裕的。
That's how the world gets richer.
那么,在努力实现新格伦火箭首次发射的过程中,你在制造和工程方面面临哪些最大的挑战?
So what are some of the the biggest challenges on the manufacturing side, on the engineering side that you're facing in working to get to the first launch of New Glenn?
首次发射是一回事。
The first launch is one thing.
我们将在2024年,也就是今年内完成它。
We'll and we'll do that in 2024 coming up in this coming year.
真正更大的挑战是确保我们的工厂能够高效地实现规模化生产。
The real thing that's the bigger challenge is making sure that our factory is efficiently manufacturing at rate.
也就是规模化生产。
So rate production.
假设你想每年发射24次新格伦火箭,
So consider if you want to launch New Glenn, you know, 24 times a year.
你需要每月制造两个上面级,因为它们是一次性的,也就是说每两周就要完成一个。
You need to manufacture a upper stage, since they're expendable, every twice a month, you need to do one every two weeks.
因此,你的所有制造设施、流程、检验技术、验收测试以及所有环节都必须达到规模化运行的水平。
So you need to be you need to have all of your manufacturing facilities and processes and inspection techniques and acceptance tests and everything operating at rate.
规模化制造的难度至少不亚于最初设计火箭本身。
And rate manufacturing is at least as difficult as designing the vehicle in the first place.
同样的道理。
And the same thing.
每个上面级都配备两台BE3U发动机。
So every every upper stage has two BE3U engines.
所以这些发动机,如果你每个月要发射两次,就需要每月四台发动机。
So those engines, you know, you need if you're going to launch the vehicle twice a month, you need four engines a month.
所以你每周都需要一台发动机。
So you need an engine every week.
因此,这些发动机必须能够按速率生产。
So you need to be that engine needs to be being produced at rate.
而且要实现这一点,你需要完成所有相关的工作。
And and that's a and there's all of the things that you need to do that.
合适的机床、夹具、人员、工艺等等。
All the right machine tools, all the right fixtures, the right people, process, etcetera.
制造首件是一回事。
So it's one thing to build a first article.
对吧?
Right?
所以,为了首次发射新格伦号,你需要生产出首件。
So that's, know, to launch New Glenn for the first time, you need to produce a first article.
但那并不是最难的部分。
But that's not the hard part.
最难的部分是幕后为建立能够批量生产新格伦火箭的工厂所做的一切工作。
The hard part is everything that's going on behind the scenes to build a factory that can produce New Glenn's at rate.
所以第一个的生产方式要能支持第二个、第三个、第四个、第五个的生产,还有第二个你
So the first one is produced in a way that's enables the production of the second, third, and the fourth, and the fifth, and the second You
你可以把首件产品看作是推动整个批量制造技术前进的动力。
could think of the first article as kind of pushing it it pushes all of the rate manufacturing technology along.
换句话说,它实际上是一个测试件,用来检验你的制造技术是否可行。
You know, in other words, it's kind of the, you know, it's the test article in a way that's testing out your your manufacturing technologies.
制造才是最大的挑战。
The manufacturing is the big challenge.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是,我不想让人觉得其中任何一部分是容易的。
I mean, I don't want to make it sound like any of it is easy.
我的意思是,设计发动机和所有这些工作的人,确实每一件事都很困难。
I mean, the people who are designing the engines and all this, all of it is hard for sure.
但目前的挑战是全力以赴实现规模化制造,并以高效的方式做到这一点。
But the but the challenge right now is driving really hard to get to is to get to rate manufacturing and to do that in an efficient way.
再次回到我们的成本问题。
Again, kind of back to our cost point.
如果你以低效的方式实现规模化制造,那你其实并没有真正解决成本问题,可能也没有真正推动技术进步。
If you get to rate manufacturing in an inefficient way, you haven't really solved the cost problem and maybe you haven't really moved the state of the art forward.
所有这些都必须围绕推动技术前沿展开。
All this has to be about moving the state of the art forward.
有更容易做的生意。
There are easier easier businesses to do.
我总是告诉人们,如果你只是想赚钱,比如开一家咸味零食公司之类的,你知道,你
I always tell people, look, if you are trying to make money, you know, like, start a salty snack food company or something, you know, you
把这个想法记下来。
You write that idea down.
比如,做一批莱克·弗里德曼牌薯片。
Like, make the Lex Fridman potato chips.
你知道的,好吧。
You know, this Okay.
别这么说。
Don't don't say it.
别人会拿走这个点子的。
People are going to steal it.
但确实很难。
But, yeah, it's hard.
你明白我的意思吗?
You see what I'm saying?
这个行业的每一件事都不容易,但自有其回报。
It's like there's nothing easy about this business and but but it's its own reward.
这很迷人,值得去做,很有意义。所以,我不是想贬低薯片公司,但我认为它们没那么有意义。
It's it's it's fascinating, it's worthwhile, it's meaningful, And so, you know, I don't want to pick on salty snack food companies, but I think it's less meaningful.
你知道,归根结底,你并不会成就什么了不起的事情,是的。
You know, at the end of the day, you're not going to have accomplished something amazing Yeah.
即使你因此赚了很多钱。
There's even if you do make a lot of money out of it.
对。
Yeah.
太空探索这个所谓的商业,本质上是完全不同的。
There's something fundamentally different about the quote unquote business of space exploration.
是的。
Yeah.
当然了。
It's a For sure.
这是人类的一项宏伟事业。
It's a grand project of humanity.
没错。
Yes.
这是人类的一项伟大挑战。
It's one of humanity's grand challenges.
尤其是当你展望登月、登陆火星、建造巨大的奥尼尔殖民地,并解锁所有这些可能性时——我可能活不到看到这些成果的那一天。
And especially as you look at going to the moon and going to Mars and building giant O'Neill colonies and unlocking all the you know, I won't live long enough to see the fruits of this.
但这些成果来自于开辟通往太空的道路,建立基础设施。
But the fruits of this come from building a road to space, getting the infrastructure.
我给你打个比方。
I'll give you an analogy.
当我创办亚马逊时,我不需要自己开发支付系统。
When I started Amazon, I didn't have to develop a payment system.
它已经存在了。
It already existed.
它叫做信用卡。
It was called the credit card.
我不需要自己开发物流系统来配送包裹。
I didn't have to develop a transportation system to deliver the packages.
它已经存在了。
It already existed.
它被称为邮政服务、皇家邮政、德国邮政等等。
It was called the postal service and Royal Mail and Deutsche Post and so on.
所以所有这些繁重的基础设施都已经就位,我可以站在它们的肩膀上。
So all this heavy lifting infrastructure was already in place and I could stand on its shoulders.
这就是为什么当你回顾互联网时,顺便说一下,另一个巨大的基础设施在1994年左右就已经存在了。
And that's why when you look at the Internet, you know and by the way, another giant piece of infrastructure that was around in the early I'm taking you back to like 1994.
人们当时使用拨号调制解调器,而互联网是搭在长途电话网络上的。
People were using dial up modems and heavy it was piggybacking on top of the long distance phone network.
这就是互联网的运作方式,人们通过它访问服务器等等。
That's how the Internet that's, you know, how people were accessing servers and so on.
如果当时没有这些基础设施,要部署它们需要数千亿美元的资本支出。
And that again, if if that hadn't existed, it would have been hundreds of billions of CapEx to to put that out there.
没有任何初创公司能完成这件事。
No startup company could have done that.
因此,如果你看看过去二十年互联网领域的活力,问题就在于,你看,两个住在宿舍的学生就能创办一家成功的互联网公司,做出惊人的成就,因为他们不必去建造重型基础设施。
And so the problem, you know, you see in if you look at the dynamism in the Internet space over the last twenty years, it's because, you know, you see, like, two kids in a dorm room could start an Internet company that could be successful and do amazing things because they didn't have to build heavy infrastructure.
这些基础设施已经存在了。
It was already there.
这正是我想做的。
And that's what I want to do.
我把我从亚马逊赚到的钱拿来建设重型基础设施,让下一代——我的孩子和他们的孩子——能够利用这些基础设施。
I take, you know, my Amazon winnings and use that to build heavy infrastructure so that the next generation, you know, my the generation that's my children and their children, these, you know, those generations can then use that heavy infrastructure.
那时就会有太空创业者在宿舍里起步。
Then there'll be space entrepreneurs who start in their dorm room.
是的。
Yeah.
当你看到一家极具价值的太空公司是从宿舍里起步的,那就是一个成功的标志,说明我们已经建好了足够的基础设施,让创造力和想象力得以真正释放。
Like, that that will be a marker of success when you can have a really valuable space company started in a dorm room, then we know that we've built enough infrastructure so that ingenuity and imagination can really be unleashed.
我觉得这非常令人兴奋。
I find that very exciting.
当然,孩子们就会把这一切坚实的基础设施视为理所当然。
As they will, of course, as kids do, take all of this hard infrastructure ability for granted.
当然。
Of course.
这正是企业家精神。
Which is That's entrepreneurial spirit.
这是一位发明家最大的梦想,是的。
That's a an inventor's greatest dream Yeah.
他们的发明如此成功,以至于有一天人们会将其视为理所当然。
Is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted.
没人再把亚马逊当作一项发明了。
You know, nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore.
也没人把客户评价当作一项发明了。
Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an invention.
我们率先推出了客户评价,但现在它们已经变得如此普遍。
We pioneered customer reviews, but now they're so commonplace.
一键购物也是如此。
Same thing with one click shopping and so on.
是的。
Yeah.
但这是一种赞美。
But that's a compliment.
这就是你发明的东西,被如此多的人广泛而有益地使用,以至于他们把它视为理所当然。
That's how, you know, you invent something that's so used, so beneficially used by so many people that they take it for granted.
我不觉得没人会这样想。
I don't know about nobody.
每次使用亚马逊时,我仍然感到惊叹。
Every time I use Amazon, I'm still amazed.
这到底是怎么做到的?
How does this work?
物流系统。
The logistics.
的的
The the
嗯,你这样说明你是个非常好奇的探索者。
Well, you you that that proves you're a very curious explorer.
好的。
Alright.
好的。
Alright.
回到火箭的话题。
Back to rockets.
时间线。
Timeline.
你提到2024年。
You said 2024.
就目前情况来看,首次试射和‘逃生探索者’登陆火星的任务仍然可能吗?
As it stands now, are both the first test launch and the launch of the Escapade Explorers to Mars still possible?
2024年?
In 2024?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得是的。
I think so.
毫无疑问,第一次发射肯定会有,至于Escapade是否能赶上,我们还得看看。
For sure, the first launch, and then we'll see if if Escapade goes on that or not.
我觉得第一次发射肯定能成,也希望Escapade能一起。
I think that the first launch for sure, and I hope Escapade too.
希望?
Hope?
我只是不确定最终会安排哪个任务。
Well, I just don't know which mission is is actually gonna be slated on.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我们也有一些其他可能搭载在首次任务上的载荷。
So we also have other things that might go on that first mission.
哦,我明白了。
Oh, I got it.
但你还是对发射计划持乐观态度,对吧?
But you're optimistic that the launches will still
哦,对于新格伦火箭的首次发射,我非常乐观,相信会在2024年进行,但我无法100%确定首次发射会搭载哪个有效载荷。
Oh, the first launch I'm very optimistic that the first launch of New Glenn will be in 2024, and I'm just not a 100% certain what payload will be on that first launch.
你为此感到紧张吗?
Are you nervous about it?
你在开玩笑吗?
Are you kidding?
我对此非常紧张。
I'm extremely nervous about it.
天啊。
Oh, man.
百分之百。
A 100%.
每次我去观看新谢泼德号或其他飞行器的发射时,我总是会感到紧张。
I've you know, every every launch I go to, you know, for New Shepard, for other vehicles too, I'm always nervous for these launches.
但当然了。
But, yes, for sure.
第一次发射却一点都不紧张,那恐怕是有点不正常了,我觉得。
A first launch, to have no nervousness about that would be, you know, some sign of derangement, I think.
所以。
So.
我得去现场观看发射,那场面真的很壮观。
Well, I got to visit the launch, but it's pretty I mean, it's epic.
我们已经进行了大量的地面测试和模拟。
You know, we have done a tremendous amount of ground testing, a tremendous amount of simulation.
所以,你知道,我们可能在飞行中遇到的许多问题都已经解决了。
So, you know, a lot of the problems that we might find in flight have been resolved.
但有些问题只有在飞行中才能发现。
But there are some problems you can only find in flight.
所以,你懂的,祈祷好运吧。
So, you know, cross your fingers.
我向你保证,不管发生什么,你观看时都会觉得有趣。
I guarantee you, you'll you'll have fun watching it no matter what happens.
100%。
100%.
当它完全组装好后,就会升空。
When the thing is fully assembled, it comes up.
是的。
Yeah.
运输起竖装置,就是起竖装置。
The transporter erector The erector.
对于这种规模的火箭,仅运输起竖装置就已经非常了不起了。
Just transporter erector for a rocket of this scale Yeah.
这真是非同寻常。
Is extraordinary.
那是一台了不起的机器。
That's an incredible machine.
运载火箭水平运输出去,然后逐渐
Vehicle travels out horizontally and then kind
是的。
of Yeah.
你知道的,竖立起来,
You know, comes up and
需要几个小时吗?
Over a few hours?
是的。
Yeah.
看着真美。
It's a beautiful thing to watch.
说到这个,如果这让你紧张的话,我不知道你是否还记得,你曾乘坐新谢泼德号执行过它的首次载人飞行。
Speaking of which, if that makes you nervous, I don't know if you remember, but you were aboard New Shepard on its first crewed flight.
那次体验怎么样?
How was that experience?
你当时害怕吗?
Were you were you terrified then?
说来奇怪,我并没有。
You know, strangely, I wasn't.
你知道,你乘坐
You know, I You ride
火箭。
the rocket.
确实如此。
It's true.
好的。
Okay.
我看过其他人乘坐火箭,但比起我自己在火箭里时,我反而更紧张。
I've watched other people riding the rocket, and I'm more nervous than when I was inside the rocket myself.
当我告诉妈妈我要参加第一次飞行时,这是一场很难开口的对话。
It was a difficult conversation to have with my mother when I told her I was gonna go on the first one.
不仅我要去,我还打算带上我弟弟。
And not only was I gonna go, but I was gonna bring my brother too.
跟妈妈谈这种事真的很困难。
This is a tough conversation to have with a mom.
当我告诉她时,她沉默了很久。
And There's a long pause when
你告诉她的时候。
you told her.
她问:‘你们两个都去?’
She's like, both of you?
这是一次难以置信的体验,我们在舱内笑个不停,你知道的,我们一点也不紧张。
It was an incredible experience, and we were we were laughing in inside the capsule and, you know, we're not nervous.
地面上的人为我们非常紧张。
The people on the ground were very nervous for us.
这次经历中最情感强烈的一部分,其实发生在飞行之前。
It was actually one of the most emotionally powerful parts of the experience was not happened even before the flight.
凌晨四点半,我和弟弟正准备前往发射场,劳伦将用她的直升机送我们去,我们正准备出发。
At 04:30 in the morning, brother and I are getting ready to go to the launch site, and Lauren is gonna take us there in her helicopter, we're getting ready to leave.
我们走出德克萨斯州西部发射设施旁的牧场房屋。
And we go outside outside the ranch house there in West Texas where the launch facility is.
我们的家人——我的孩子们、我弟弟的孩子们、我们的父母和亲密朋友——都聚集在那里,向我们道别。
And all of our family, my kids and my brother's kids and our, you know, our parents and close friends are assembled there and they're saying goodbye to us.
但他们似乎觉得,也许这是在和我们永别。
But they're kind of saying, maybe they think they're saying goodbye to us forever.
是的。
Mhmm.
而且,我们可能没意识到这一点,但从他们的脸上明显能看出他们有多紧张,那种情绪是真实的。
And, you know, we might not have felt that way, it was obvious from their faces how nervous they were that they felt that way.
这感觉非常强烈,因为它让我们仿佛置身于一场十周年的追悼会。
And it was sort of powerful because it allowed us to see it was almost like a ten year old memorial service or something.
在那一刻,你能真切感受到自己被多么深爱着,那真的太棒了。
Like, you could feel how loved you were in that moment, and it was it was really amazing.
是的。
Yeah.
而且,这本身也有一种史诗般的气魄。
And, I mean, there's just a epic nature to it too.
上升过程,以及在失重状态下的漂浮,我告诉你一件非常有趣的事。
The ascent, the floating in zero gravity I'll tell you something very interesting.
失重的感觉非常自然。
Zero gravity feels very natural.
我不确定这是否是因为我们,你知道的,就像回到了子宫一样,或者
I don't know if it's because we're, you know, it's like return to the womb You're or
一个外星人,但我想那就是你刚才说的意思。
an alien, but that's I think that's what I think that's what you just said.
在失重状态下感觉非常自然。
It feels so natural to be in zero g.
真的很有意思。
Was really interesting.
当人们谈论全景效应、从太空中俯瞰地球时,我强烈地感受到了那种情绪。
And then when people talk about the overview effect and seeing Earth from space, I had that feeling very powerfully.
我想每个人都感受到了。
I think everyone did.
你会看到地球是多么脆弱。
You see how fragile the Earth is.
如果你不是环保主义者,这会让你成为其中之一。
If you're not an environmentalist, it will make you one.
吉姆·洛弗尔有一句名言,你知道,他从太空中回望地球时意识到:你不是在死后去天堂,而是在出生时就进入了天堂。
The great Jim Lovell quote, you know, he looked back at the Earth from space and he said he realized, you don't go to heaven when you die, you go to heaven when you're born.
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