#422 – 马克·库班：鲨鱼坦克、多元化公平包容与觉醒主义辩论、埃隆·马斯克、政治与毒品

所以我想，当你睡在地板上，还有六个男生在一起时，会容易一点。

So I suppose when you're sleeping on the floor and there's six guys, it's a little bit easier.

真的很容易。

It's really easy.

对吧？

Right?

特别是当你被解雇了，没有工作，还得晚上当酒吧侍者来付账单的时候。

Particularly when you get fired and you don't have a job, you know, and you're looking at bartending at night to try to pay the bills.

所以对我来说并不难，但你说得对，这归根结底是准备的问题。

And so it wasn't hard for me, but to your point, it it really comes down to preparation.

你知道，如果这件事对你足够重要，你就会存钱。

You know, if it's important enough to you, you'll save the money.

你会放弃，你知道的，任何你需要放弃的东西来存下这笔钱。

You'll give up, you know, whatever it is you need to give up to put the money aside.

如果你有责任，你会努力去了解这个行业，这样当你创业时，就已经做好了准备。

If you have obligations, you'll put in the work to learn as much as you can about that industry, so that when you start your business, you're prepared.

而且你总可以在晚上、周末，或者任何有空的时间，比如午餐时间，开始打电话，看看是否有人愿意给你开支票，转账给你，购买你所销售的东西。

And you can always, you know, at night, on weekends, whenever you find time, lunch, start making the calls to find out if people will write you a check, you know, transfer you money to buy whatever it is you're selling.

通过做这些事情，你可以让自己处于成功的位置。

And by doing those things, you can put yourself in a position to succeed.

有些人只是觉得，好吧，吉罗尼莫，我正从悬崖边一跃而下，开始创业。

It's where people just think, okay, you know, Geronimo, I'm leafing off the edge of a cliff, and I'm starting a business.

这很难。

That's tough.

但有时候，这确实就是你做事的方式。

But sometimes that's like the way you do it, though.

任何情况都有其对应的例子。

There's always examples of any situation or situation.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

但这些都是零散的例证。

Mean But Anecdotal evidence for everything.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果你要进入一个新行业，除非你真的、真的、真的、真的、真的非常幸运，否则一定会遇到竞争。

But if you're if you're going into a new business, you're gonna have competition unless you're really, really, really, really, really lucky.

而这些竞争者不会只是说：‘好吧，让莱克马尔去收拾她吧。’

And that competition is not gonna just say, okay, let Lexar Mark just kick her ass.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你必须做好准备，想想该如何应对这些竞争。

And so you've gotta be prepared on how you're gonna deal with that competition.

你认为美国为什么有这么多人怀有创业梦想并付诸行动呢？

What what do you think that is about America that has so many people who have that dream and act on that dream of starting a business?

我觉得，我们有一种崇尚消费和更多拥有的文化。

You know, I think we've just got a culture of consumption and more.

你知道吗？

You know?

要想获得更多，你就得知道，创业能带来最大的潜在回报和最大的时间杠杆，但同时也伴随着最大的风险。

And to get more, you've got to you know, creating a business gives you the greatest potential upside and the greatest leverage on your time, but it also creates the most risk.

所以这个资本主义体系，相比之下有很多要素。

So that capitalist machine, there's a lot of elements by contrast.

对法律的尊重，比如创业者可以相信，如果他们成功了，法律会保护他们。

The respect for the law, like an entrepreneur can trust that if they pull it off the law, it will protect them.

不会有一个政府。

There won't be a government.

希望这种情况仍然成立。

Hopefully, that's still the case.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯

Well

嗯。

Yeah.

总是有嗯。

There's always Yeah.

我们与其他国家的对比。

Us versus other countries.

是的。

Yes.

你说得对。

You're right.

对。

Right.

所以我们与其他国家的对比。

So us versus other countries.

比如，乔·拜登本人曾对我说过，那是在他担任副总统时组织的一次创业峰会。

Like, Joe Biden of all people said to me, it was at an entrepreneurship conference that when he was vice president, he had put together.

我们一群来自《创智赢家》的人去了那里，与来自世界各地的年轻创业者交流。

And we had gone up there from bunch of us from Shark Tank to talk to young entrepreneurs from around the world.

他跟我说，马克，你知道吗？我去过世界上每一个国家，唯一让我们与众不同的就是创业精神。

And he said to me, Mark, you know, the one thing that separate I've been to every country around the world, and the one thing that separates us is entrepreneurship.

我们是世界上最具创业精神的国家，没有任何其他国家能与我们相提并论。

We're the most entrepreneurial country in the world, and there's no one else who's even close.

当你审视世界上那些最大的公司的起源时，大部分背后都有一个美国式的创业故事。

And when you look at the origin of our big you know, the biggest companies in the world for the most part, there's an American origin story somewhere behind there.

我觉得，这种模式就这样不断自我延续下去。

And I think, you know, that just gets perpetuated on itself.

我们看到了那些霍雷肖·阿尔杰式的故事。

We see those Horatio stories.

我们看到了像杰夫·贝佐斯、史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的人物，而这些人正是我们想要效仿的对象。

We see examples of the Jeff Bezos of the world, the Steve Jobs of the world, and those are the types of people we we want to copy.

是的。

Yeah.

我们要非常谨慎，努力弄清楚那到底是什么，因为我们不想失去它。

We wanna be really careful and try to really figure out what that is, because we don't wanna lose that.

当然。

For sure.

我们要保护它，不管怎样，你知道的。

We wanna protect it, whatever, you know.

这涉及很多关于政府该怎么做、大政府还是小政府、什么样的政策才正确的讨论，但同时也关乎文化，比如我们所推崇的。

And that's a lot of the discussions about what's the right way to do government, big government, small government, what's the right policies, but but also culture, like, we celebrate.

让我困扰的一件事是，我们对那些敢于冒险并取得成功的创业者，庆祝得还不够。

One of the things that troubles me is that we don't enough celebrate the the entrepreneurs that take risks and the entrepreneurs that succeed.

似乎一旦涉及成功，尤其是财富，就会立刻引发不信任、批评和诸如此类的反应。

It seems like success, especially when it comes to wealth, is immediately matched with distrust and criticism and all that kind of stuff.

这确实在改变，因为你可以回溯到仅仅十二年前。

It's changing for sure because, you know, you can go back just twelve years.

对吧？

Right?

传统媒体主导了，比如说，2002年到2012年。

Traditional media dominated, let's just say, '2 through 2012.

你知道，那是线性电视的巅峰时期。

You know, that was the peak of linear television.

你知道，报纸虽然没那么强势，但依然有一定的广度和深度。

You know, newspapers weren't as strong, but they still had some some breadth and depth to them.

然后社交媒体出现了，每个人都可以在自己的小天地里玩耍，与和自己想法相同的人分享观点。

And then social media comes along, and everybody gets to play in their own sandbox and share opinions with people who think just like them.

这还给了他们放大这些情绪的机会，我认为这就是庆祝企业家精神真正开始减弱的原因。

And that and it also gives them the opportunity to amplify those feelings, and I think that's where celebrating entrepreneurs really started to subside some.

一直都有进步派的人认为亿万富翁不好，或者百万富翁不好，这取决于不同时期，但你并没有持续看到这种现象。

There were always people who were progressive that were like billionaires are bad or millionaires are bad depending on the time period, but you didn't really see it on an ongoing basis.

对吧？

Right?

这不会出现在晚间新闻里。

It wasn't going be on the evening news.

它不会出现在报纸的头版上。

It wasn't going to be in the front page of the newspaper.

它只会出现在你读一本书时有人提到，或者你读一本杂志时有文章谈论这个进步运动或那个进步举措，不管是什么，或者政治党派。

It was going to be if you read a book and someone talked about it, or you read a magazine and there was an article talking about, you know, this progressive movement or that progressive move, whatever it may be, you know, and then or political parties.

但现在，这一切都成为社交媒体的焦点。

But now, all of that is front and center in social media.

我们正在努力理解

And we're trying to figure it

如何应对这些人群和它们的病毒式传播。

out how we deal with the with the mobs of people and the virality of it all.

我认为我们会找到立足点，再次开始庆祝卓越。

I think we'll find our footing and start celebrating greatness again.

我的意思是，这正是我做《创智赢家》的全部原因。

Well, I mean, that's the whole reason I do Shark Tank.

没错。

That's true.

这个节目颂扬了企业家。

That show celebrates the entrepreneur.

没错。

That's true.

这是唯一一个在每一集的每一分钟里，我们都庆祝美国梦的地方。

It's the only place where every single minute of every single episode, we, you know, we celebrate the American dream.

我做这个节目的原因是我们向全国，甚至全世界传播这个信息。

And the reason I do it is we tell the entire country, and it's shown around the world even.

我们为美国梦做了绝佳的广告，我都数不清有多少个国家在播了。

We you know, we're we're amazing advertising for the American dream, I don't even know how many countries.

但每次有人从爱荷华州的达文波特或爱达荷州的凯奇姆走上那块地毯时，都会给所有观看的七岁、八岁、九岁、十岁、十二岁的孩子传递一个信息：如果他们能从凯奇姆，爱达荷州做到，你也可以。

But every time somebody walks onto that carpet from Dubuque, Iowa or Ketchum, Idaho, you know, that sends a message to every kid who's watching, seven, eight, nine, 10, 12 year old kid, that if they can do it from Ketchum, Idaho, you can do it.

如果他们能有这个点子并获得投资，甚至只是向鲨鱼们展示，让全美国都看到，你也可以做到。

If they can have this idea and get a deal or even present to the sharks and have all of America see it, you can do it.

这让我感到自豪。

And that I mean, I'm proud of that.

这十五年简直太疯狂了。

The fifteen years of that is just it's just been insane.

现在孩子们会走过来对我说：‘我五岁或十岁时就开始看你了，因为从《鲨鱼坦克》中学到了东西，所以我开了家公司。’

You know, now kids walk up to me and go, yeah, I started watching you when I was five or 10, and I started a business because I learned about it from Shark Tank.

所以，我觉得，我们不仅是在推销它、庆祝它，还在传递它。

And so, you know, I think, you know, we're being sell it celebrates it, and we convey it.

我认为这不会消失，但我们仍需为支持它而应对不同的挑战。

And I don't think it's going away, but there are different battles we have to fight to support it.

是的。

Yeah.

我甚至喜欢那些明显很糟糕的商业创意。

I love even when the business idea is obviously horrible.

仅仅是敢于站出来的勇气。

Just the just just the guts to step up.

敢于到场。

To be there.

相信自己，真正去追求。

To believe in yourself, to really reach.

我的意思是，这才是最重要的。

I mean, that's what matters.

我的意思是，一些最好的商业点子，可能连你和《创智赢家》都会觉得好笑。

I mean, because, like, some of the best business ideas are probably maybe even you and Shark Tank will laugh at.

当然了。

Oh, for sure.

毫无疑问。

You know, without question.

那些好的项目，我们不可能每个都认出来，而有时候，我们的一句话反而会激励人们更加努力去实现目标，这也没关系。

The good ones, we're not gonna recognize every good one, and then sometimes we'll just motivate people to work even harder to get it done because of what we say to them, and and that's fine too.

你知道的。

You know?

我们曾经拒绝过一些非常成功的案例。

There's been great success stories that we said no to.

在你参与《鲨鱼坦克》时，有哪些让你印象深刻的创业项目？

What stands out as like a memorable business on you've been pitched on Shark Tank.

记忆中最棒的是哪一个？

What what's the best one that stands out in memory?

没有最棒的那一个。

There's no best one.

对吧？

Right?

它们都各不相同。

They're all different.

我想，它们各自都有其独特之处。

They're all best in their own way, I guess.

有些项目很蠢，你知道的，我们还没遇到过那种改变世界、震撼全球的项目。

They're stupid ones, and, you know, we haven't had any, you know, world earth world changing, earth shattering ones.

对吧？

Right?

因为那些企业根本不适合《创智赢家》。

Because those aren't gonna apply to Shark Tank.

他们不需要我们。

They don't need us.

对吧？

Right?

你知道的。

You know?

所以我们通常接触到的都是在某些方面需要帮助的企业。

So we typically get businesses that need some help at some level or another.

但我也有错过的一些项目，比如Spike Ball。

But there's ones I've passed that I wish like spike ball.

你知道Spike Ball是什么吗？

Do know what spike ball is?

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以这只是一个可以放在海滩上的反弹网，你有这些黄色的球，玩一种你懂的竞技游戏，但他们做得非常成功。

So it's just rebounding net that you can put on the beach, you have these yellow balls, and you play a game of you know, it's just competitive game, but they're killing it.

所以如果你去纽约或洛杉矶的海滩，你会看到孩子们一直在玩。

So if you go to beaches in New York or LA, you'll see kids playing it all the time.

这是一个很有趣的游戏，我真希望当初和他们做了这笔交易。

And it it was a fun game that I wish I had done a deal with.

还有其他一些例子。

There's and there's been others.

而且你拒绝了。

And you passed.

我也拒绝了。

And I passed.

他们当时已经取得了一些进展，想建立斯派克球联盟，还希望我当联盟主席。

They they were getting some traction, and they wanted to create leagues, spikeball leagues, and they wanted me to be the commissioner.

但我不想当一个新斯派克球联盟的主席。

And I don't want to be a commissioner of a new spikeball league.

所以你得凭直觉判断，这个能规模化吗？

So you have to kind of have this gut feeling of will this scale?

这个能引起人们的共鸣吗？

Will this click with people?

是的。

Yeah.

它能被保护吗？

Can it be protected?

它有差异化吗？

Is it differentiated?

它是不是让你觉得，嗯，我怎么就没想到这一点？

Is it something that makes me think, you know, why didn't I think of that?

嗯。

Mhmm.

或者它只是一个稳健的生意，能给创始人带来回报，但可能还不足以给投资者带来足够回报。

Or is it just a good solid business that's gonna pay a return to the the founder and may not be enough of a business to return to an investor.

嗯。

Yeah.

我想你真正想问的是，这个能规模化吗？

And and I guess the question you're trying to see, will this scale?

有潜力。

There's promise.

这个潜力能变成大事业吗？

Will the promise materialize into a big thing?

你看，我根本不关心它会不会变成大事业。

Well, see, I don't even care if it's gonna be a big thing.

对吧？

Right?

这完全取决于创业者本身。

It it because it's all relative to the entrepreneur.

我们有个来自匹兹堡的19岁女孩，叫莱尼，她带来了一个简单的糖磨砂膏，这东西并没有什么特别出彩的地方。

We had a 19 year old from Pittsburgh, Laney, who came on with this simple sugar scrub, and there was nothing outrageously special about it.

我没觉得它能变成一亿美元的生意。

I didn't see it becoming a $100,000,000 business.

我觉得它能变成一个两百零三万或五百万美元的生意，足以支付她的开销。

I thought it could become a $2.03, $5,000,000 business that paid the bills for her.

而那已经足够好了。

And that that was good enough.

节目播出六个月后，她给我打了电话。

And, you know, six months after the show aired, she called me up.

她说，马克，我银行里有一百万美元了。

She goes, Mark, I've got a million dollars in the bank.

我接下来该做什么？

What am I going to do?

我说，好好享受吧。

I'm like, enjoy it.

留出钱缴税，然后回去工作。

Put aside money for your taxes, and go back to work.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道的。

You know?

所以它不一定非得是个大生意。

And so it doesn't have to be a huge business.

只要能让创业者开心就行。

It's just gotta be one that makes the entrepreneur happy.

但还有估值这一部分。

But then there's the valuation piece.

我的意思是，没错。

I mean Right.

很多创业者都会高估自己的价值。

Do do a lot of the entrepreneurs overvalue

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Of course.

生意？

Business?

是啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这本来就是它的本质。

I mean, that's that's the nature of it.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这正是《鲨鱼坦克》里最激烈的冲突所在，那就是估值问题。

I mean, and that that's really where the biggest conflicts in Shark Tank happen, that's an evaluation.

他们，你知道，他们觉得这是有史以来最好的生意。

They, you know, they they think this is the best business ever.

你知道，我们曾经有一对夫妇来过，他们有个给猫舌头刮毛的工具。

You know, there we had one lady, couple that came on, and they had this scraper for cat's tongues.

对吧？

Right?

不错。

Nice.

怪异。

Bizarre.

可能是最奇怪的提案之一。

Most one of the the most bizarre pitch ever.

我喜欢这个。

I love it.

你知道，他们给出了一个荒谬的估值，之所以能上节目，是因为节目本身搞笑有趣，而不是因为这真是个好生意。

You know, and they had this insane valuation, and it was on because it was corny and fun TV, not because it was a good business.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

好吧。

Okay.

你没看到它的潜力。

You didn't see the potential.

完全没有。

None.

是啊。

Yeah.

完全没有。

None.

这里有个

There's a

世界上有很多猫，马克。

lot of cats in the world, Mark.

是的。

Yes.

是。

Are.

它们没有我也会做得很好。

They'll go do very well without me.

那么，你怎么确定一家企业的价值呢？无论是在《鲨鱼坦克》上，还是普遍情况下？

So how do you determine the value of a business, whether it's on Shark Tank or just in general?

其实非常简单。

It's actually really easy.

对吧？

Right?

所以，举个例子，一家估值为100万美元的企业，如果我想用10万美元购买该公司10%的股份，那么为了让我收回成本，这家公司必须能够产生10万美元的税后现金流，并且能够分配给股东。

So if you take just to use an example, a business that's valued at $1,000,000, and I want to buy 10% of that company for a $100,000, then in order for me to get my money back, they've got to be able to generate a $100,000 in after tax cash flow that they're able to distribute.

它们能做到吗？还是做不到？

Can they do it or can they not?

对吧？

Right?

如果企业估值是200万美元，不管估值多少，它们都需要产生相应数额的税后现金，才能向投资者返还这笔资金。

And if it's a $2,000,000 value whatever the valuation is, that's how much cash, after tax cash, they have to generate to return that money to investors.

或者另一种选择是，你觉得这个企业有可能被收购吗？

Or the other option is do they you know, do I see this as business potentially having an exit?

对吧？

Right?

他们是否拥有某种独特的技术，或者有什么特别之处，能让其他公司想收购他们？

Do they have some unique technology, or do they have something specific about them that some other company would want to acquire?

那么现金流就没那么重要了——我不是说它不重要，但它不会主导估值。

Then the cash flow isn't as as not I don't wanna say important, but isn't going to guide the valuation.

你怎么知道一家公司会被收购呢？

And how do you know if a company's gonna be acquired?

所以是技术，比如专利，还有团队？

So it's the technology, like the patents, but also the team?

是的。

Is it Yeah.

可能是以上任何一种情况。

It could be any of the above.

对吧？

Right?

它可能是一家超级产品公司，我认为会大获成功。

It could be it could be a super products company that I think is going to take off.

你怎么知道他们能否赚钱？

And how do you know if they can generate the money?

那这个……你刚才说得好像很简单。

What's what's the Well, this You made it sound easy.

嗯。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这个人能卖得出去吗？

I mean, is can the person sell?

你知道的？

You know?

如果不是他们，我能做吗？

And if not them, can I do it?

或者我团队中的人替他们做？

Or someone on my team do it for them?

所以你在观察这个人。

So you're looking at the person.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

是的。

Yeah.

爱德华·芭芭拉·科克尔是最棒的。

Edward Barbara Corker is the best.

她只要看一个人，听他们讲二十分钟，就能知道这个人能不能胜任这份工作？

She can look at a person and hear them talk for twenty minutes and know, can that person do the job and do the work?

你能看出他们是不是在吹牛吗？

Can you tell if they're full of shit or not?

关于创业者，他们就像我们说的那样，往往会高估自己，可能过度推销自己。

So one of the things with entrepreneurs, they're kind of, like we said, overvaluing, so they're maybe overselling themselves.

但同时，他们在对市场的理解上也可能是在胡说八道，

But also, they might be full of shit in terms of their understanding of the market or also,

是的。

like yeah.

或者夸大他们打算做的事情，诸如此类的情况。

Or exaggerating what they're thinking to do, all that kind of stuff.

你能看穿这些吗？

Can you see through that?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

通过提问就能知道。

Just by asking questions.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道的。

You know?

如果他们在某种程度上是妄想的，或者在另一些方面是误导的，我就会直接指出问题。

So if if they are delusional at some level or misleading at another level, I'm gonna I'm gonna call them on it.

你知道的。

You know?

你会看到一些人来推销保健品，说能治愈癌症之类的，或者吹嘘某种最新潮流，声称不用做任何运动就能增强核心力量。

So you get people trying to sell supplements that come on there, and it's a cure for cancer or whatever it may be, Or there's this latest fad that, you know, increases your core strength without doing any exercises.

知道吗？

Know?

这种 crap，我会直接驳斥，狠狠打击他们。

Shit like that, I'm just going to bounce I'm going to pound on them.

对吧？

Right?

你看，我仍然喜欢这个。

See, I still love that.

我仍然喜欢尝试的过程。

I still love the trying.

不。

No.

你知道，我得给他们一些认可。

I you know, give them credit.

对吧？

Right?

因为他们知道全美国都会看到，而且他们已经自我欺骗，深信不疑。

Because they know all of America's going to see it, and they've deluded themselves to believe the story so strongly.

我的意思是，创业本身就有一种妄想的成分。

I mean, there's a delusional aspect to entrepreneurship.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我看到的就是这样。

Like, you just I see.

那真是个好问题。

That that's a great question.

你必须有野心，某种程度上抛开现实，才能相信自己能创建一家价值10万亿美元的公司吗？

Do you have to be ambitious and, you know, set aside reality at some level to think that you can create a company that could be worth $10,101,000,000,000 dollars?

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

某种程度上，因为你并不知道。

At some level, because you don't know.

一切都是不确定的。

It's all uncertainty.

但我认为，如果你妄想的话，这反而会拖累你。

But I think if you're delusional, that works against you.

因为一切都要立足于现实。

You because everything's grounded in reality.

你必须付诸行动。

You've got to execute.

你必须产出成果。

You've got to produce.

你可以有远见。

You know, you can have a vision.

对吧？

Right?

你可以这么说：这就是我想达到的目标，这就是我的使命，或者这是我的核心原则，但你仍然必须执行商业计划，而大多数人正是在这里失败的。

And you can say, this is where I wanna get to, and that's my mission, or this is my driving principle, but you still gotta execute on the business plan, and that that's where most people fail.

是的。

Yeah.

你得有点双轨思维，我想。

You have to be kinda two brained, I guess.

当你思考产品的具体细节、如何设计、如何理解基本原理、如何构建产品、成本多少时，你必须能够切换到现实模式。

You have to be able to dip into reality when you're thinking about, like, the specifics of the product, how to design things, how to like, you know, the first principles, the basics of how to build the thing, how much it's gonna cost, all that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你连基本功都做不到，就不可能做好更大的事情。

I mean, because if you can't do the basics, you're not gonna be able to do the bigger things.

同时，创业者常做的一件事，我总是提醒我合作的每个人：我们都容易欺骗自己。

And at the same time, you've gotta be one of the things that entrepreneurs do that I I always try to remind any that I work with on is we all tend to lie to ourselves.

我们的产品更大、更快、更便宜，仿佛这是一种一成不变的固定状态。

Our product is bigger, faster, cheaper, this or that, as if that is a finite situation that's never going to change.

对吧？

Right?

但总有人，我称之为超越型公司。

And there's always somebody, I call them leapfrog businesses.

那些与你竞争的人，如果你做了a、b或c，他们就会试图做c、d和e。

There's whoever's competing against you, you know, if you do a, b, or c, they're going to try to do c, d, and e.

对吧？

Right?

你最好做好准备应对这种情况，否则他们也会倒闭。

And you better be prepared for that to come because otherwise, they're out of business too.

所以你从来都不是在真空中运作。

So you're never in a vacuum.

你总是在与一些你甚至不知道存在的、数量可能无限的创业者竞争，他们正试图

You're always competing against sometimes an unlimited number of entrepreneurs that you don't even know exist who are trying

打败你。

to kick your ass.

而这一切的棘手之处在于，你可能需要频繁地调整方向，尤其是在初期。

And the tricky part of all this too is you might need to frequently pivot, especially in the beginning.

希望不要这样。

Hopefully not.

所以你觉得，一开始的产品应该是能让你走得很久的那个东西吗？

So you think, like, in the beginning, the product you have should be the thing that carries you a long time?

是的。

Yeah.

因为，我的意思是，那是你最危险的时刻。

Because, I mean, that's that's your riskiest point in time.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你做了充分的准备，包括出去验证产品与市场的契合度，你就应该有信心能够卖得出去。

And so if you've done your homework, which includes going out there and testing product market fit, you should have confidence that you're going to be able to sell it.

但如果你没做足功课，就出去卖你那个东西，而且你融资了，只是为了之后再转型，那你已经表明你根本看不懂市场。

Now if you didn't do your homework and you go out there and you sell whatever it is, then and you've raised money or whatever just to pivot, you've already shown that you haven't been able to read the market.

所以并不是说转型一定不行，或者从来都不行。

And so it's not that pivots can't work and always don't work.

它们可能行，但大多数情况下，它们都不行。

They can, but more often than not, they don't.

你之所以要转型，是有原因的。

You pivot for a reason.

那是因为你犯了一个巨大的错误。

That's because you made a huge mistake.

我的意思其实是那些微小的转型，也就是对某个东西的迭代开发。

Well, I also mean like the the the micro pivots, which is like iterative development of a thing.

哦，哦，是的。

Oh, Oh, yeah.

那不是的。

That's not yeah.

只是迭代而已。

Just iterations.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，创业或经营任何企业都是持续迭代的过程。

You know, entrepreneurship being having any business is just continuous iteration.

持续不断地。

Continuous.

你的产品、销售话术、广告宣传，还有引入新技术，比如如何使用或不使用人工智能，在哪里使用，谁才是合适的人选。

Your product, your sales pitch, your advertising, you know, introducing new technology, how do you use AI or not use AI, where do you use it, what person's the right person.

有无数个接触点，你必须实时重新评估，保持敏捷，适应并做出改变。

There's there's just a million touch points, you know, that you're always reevaluating in real time that you have to be agile and adapt and change.

但特别是在软件领域，商业模式似乎也能迅速演变。

But especially in software, it feels like business model can evolve really quickly too.

比如，你打算怎么靠这个赚钱？

Like, how are gonna make money on this?

对于软件来说确实如此，因为任何数字化的东西都可以在一瞬间改变。

With software for sure because, you know, anything digital because it can change in a millisecond.

说到这个，你是怎么赚到第一个十亿美元的？

Speaking of which, how did you make your first billion?

所以我和我的合伙人托德·瓦格纳会一起吃午餐，地点是在达拉斯普雷斯顿霍洛的加利福尼亚比萨厨房。

So my partner, Todd Wagner, and I would get together for lunches, and we're at California Pizza Kitchen in Preston Hollow in Dallas.

他谈到我们如何能利用这个新事物——互联网（那是1994年底、1995年初），来收听印第安纳大学的篮球比赛，因为那是我们上学的地方。

And he was talking about how we could use this new thing called the Internet, this is late ninety four, early ninety five, to be able to listen to Indiana University basketball games, because that's where we went to school.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他说，当我们听比赛时，我们会请一位在印第安纳州布卢明顿的人把免提电话放在收音机旁，然后我们在达拉斯也放一部免提电话，旁边摆上六瓶或十二瓶啤酒，围坐在一起听比赛，因为当时没有别的办法能听到比赛。

And he was like, look, when we would listen to games, we would have somebody in Bloomington, Indiana have a speakerphone next to a radio, and then we would have a speakerphone in Dallas and, you know, six pack or 12 pack of beer, and we sit around listening to the game because there was no other way to listen to it.

于是我便说，好吧。

So I was like, okay.

我的第一家公司在Microsolutions，我之前写过软件，做过网络集成，所以对这些操作我很熟悉。

My first company, Microsolutions, you know, I'd written software, done network integration, and so I was comfortable digging into it.

于是我便说，好吧。

And so I'm like, okay.

我们来试试吧。

Let's give it a try.

于是我们创办了一家名为AudioNet的公司，成为互联网上第一家流媒体内容公司。

So we started this company called AudioNet and effectively became the first streaming content company on the Internet.

我们当时想，好吧。

And it we're like, okay.

我们不确定该如何盈利，但最终还是成功了。

We're not sure how we're gonna make this work, but we were able to make it work.

我们开始接触电台、电视台、音乐公司等，最初只有音频的audionet.com在1998年演变为包含音频和视频的broadcast.com，成为当时互联网上最大的多媒体网站，并于1998年7月上市。

And we started going to radio stations and TV stations and, you know, music labels and everything and evolved audionet.com, which was only audio at the beginning, to broadcast.com in 1998, which was audio and video, and became the largest multimedia site on the Internet, took it public on in July 1998.

它在上市首日创下了当时股市历史上最大的涨幅纪录。

It had the largest first day jump in the history of the stock market at the time.

一年后，我们以57亿美元的雅虎股票将其出售给了雅虎。

And then a year later, we sold it to Yahoo for $5,700,000,000 in Yahoo stock.

我当时持有公司大约30%的股份，左右吧。

And I owned, you know, right around 30% of the company, give or take.

所以扣完税后，这笔钱就让我实现了财富自由。

So after taxes, that's what got me there.

嗯，那里有很多问题。

Well, there's a lot of questions there.

所以从技术角度来看，你听起来好像这很容易，但你确实写了代码，而在互联网早期，你是怎么想办法创建这种产品——最初只有音频，然后是视频的？

So the technical challenge of that, you're making it sound easy, but you wrote code, but still in the early days of the Internet, how do you figure out how to create this kind of product of of of of just audio at first and then video at first?

很多次迭代。

A lot of iterations.

对吧？

Right?

就像你提到的那样。

Like you talked about.

我们从我家第二间卧室开始， setup 了一台服务器。

We started in the second bedroom of my house, set up a server.

我弄了一条ISDN线路，那是128k的带宽，安装了Netscape服务器，然后开始使用各种支持渐进式加载的文件格式，让用户连接到服务器进行渐进式下载，这样你可以在音频下载到电脑的同时就开始收听。

I got an ISDN line, which was a 128 k line, and set up downloaded Netscape server, and then started using different file formats that were progressive loading and allowing people to connect to the server and do a progressive download so that the audio you can listen to the audio while it was downloading onto your PC.

是的。

Yeah.

卡顿得很厉害吗？

Was it super choppy?

所以你当时在尝试弄清楚如何

So you're trying to figure out how

当然要这么做。

to do For sure.

它会缓冲。

It would buffer.

是的，确实如此。

It was yeah.

虽然不好，但总算开始了。

Was it it wasn't good, but it was a start.

但已经足够好了，因为这是第一种

But it was good enough because it's the first kind

嗯，没错。

of Yeah.

因为当时没有其他竞争对手。

Because there was no other competition.

对吧？

Right?

根本没人做这个，没错。

There was nobody else doing Yeah.

所以当时我就想，好吧，我可以获取这个、这个或者这个。

And so it was like, okay, I can get access to this, this, or this.

然后有一些第三方软件公司，比如Zing和Progressive Networks，它们把这进一步推进了一步。

And then there were some third party software companies, Zing and Progressive Networks and others that were that took it a little bit further.

于是我们与它们合作，我开始去当地的广播电台， literally 我们会架设一台服务器。

So we partnered with them, and I started going to local radio stations where literally we would set up a server.

服务器旁边，我放了一台49美元的收音机，那是我能找到的最高端的FM收音机，我们用两根模拟线缆将收音机的音频信号输出接入服务器，进行编码，然后通过audionet.com提供出来。

Right next to it, I had a $49 radio, the highest FM radio that I could find, and we take the output of the audio signal from the radio with these two analog cables, plug it into the server, encode it, and make it available from audionet.com.

之后我会去UUNet的公告板上发帖。

Then I would go on UUNet bulletin boards.

我会去CompuServe。

I would go on CompuServe.

我会去Prodigy。

I would go on Prodigy.

我会去AOL。

I would go on AOL.

我会去任何能找到人的地方。

I'd go wherever I could find bodies.

我会说，好吧。

And I'd say, okay.

我们有一个电台，达拉斯的KLIF。

We've got this radio station, KLIF in Dallas.

它播放达拉斯的体育、新闻和政治内容。

It's got Dallas sports and Dallas news and politics.

如果你在办公室或达拉斯以外的地方，可以连接到audionet.com，现在你就可以按需收听这些内容。

And if you're in an office or you're outside of Dallas, connect to audionet.com, and now you can listen to these things on demand.

这就是我们起步的方式。

And that's how we started.

我们从一个广播电台开始，然后变成五个，接着是十个，再后来是视频内容，当时法律不同，所以我们能直接去买CD。

And it started with one radio station, and then it was five, then it was 10, then it was video content, then it the laws were different then, so we could literally go out and buy CDs

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后把它们托管，让人们随意收听各种音乐。

And host them, and just let people listen to whatever music.

在接下来的四年里，我们的用户从每天10个增长到100个、1000个、几十万，最后达到一百万。

And we went from, you know, 10 users a day to a 100 to a thousand to hundreds of thousands to a million over those next four years.

你们是怎么找到用户的？

How did you find the users?

是靠口碑吗？

Is it word-of-mouth?

口碑。

Word-of-mouth.

只是口口相传。

Just word-of-mouth.

广告一分钱都没花。

Didn't spend a penny on advertising.

所以你当时关注的是获取广播电台

So the thing you were focusing on is getting the radio stations

还有这些吗？

and all that?

广播、电视，任何内容都可以。

Radio and TV, anything, any content at all.

你们有

Did you

打电话吗？

pick up the phone?

你们做了什么？

What'd you do?

你怎么做到的

How'd you

我会尽可能到处去找，那是公共领域的，我会去买录像带或磁带，不管是什么。

I would wherever I could, like, that was public domain, I'd go out and buy a video or a cassette, whatever it was.

你知道的吗？

You know?

那是在数字千年版权法案（DMCA）1990年生效之前的事。

And this was before the the DMs, the Digital Minimum Copyright Act of '90 whenever it kicked in.

所以，任何音频内容，我们都会放到网上，让人们可以收听。

So literally anything that was audio, we would put online so people could listen to it.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你想想在上班的人，他们很可能没有收音机，即使有，也收不到信号。

And if you think about somebody at work, they didn't have a radio most likely, and if you did, you couldn't get reception.

肯定没有电视，但你有电脑，而且有可用的带宽。

Definitely didn't have a TV, but you had a PC, and you had bandwidth available to you.

当时公司还没有设置防火墙之类的措施，因此我们在办公室白天的在线收听量急剧增长。

And the companies weren't up on firewalls or anything at that point in time, so our in office listening during the day just exploded.

因为坐在你旁边的人，你在听什么？

Because whoever's sitting next to you, what are you listening to?

对吧？

Right?

这就是它的开端。

And that was the start of it.

然后，你知道，在1998年初，我们开始加入视频和其他内容，最终拥有了数千台服务器。

And then, you know, in early ninety eight, we started adding video and just other things, and we had ended up with thousands of servers.

那时候还没有云服务，我们只是把所有这些组件拼凑起来，让系统运行起来。

You know, there was no cloud back then, and just pulling together all those pieces to make it work.

但我们真正赚钱的地方，是利用我们构建的网络，去接触企业客户，告诉他们：看，现在是1996、97、98年，要与全球员工沟通，他们通常会去一个配备卫星上行设备的礼堂，然后让员工前往配备卫星下行设备的剧院、宴会厅或酒店，来播放产品发布等内容。

But where we really made our money was by taking that network that we had built and then going to corporations and saying, look, you know, it's 1996, 9798, and to communicate with your worldwide employees, what they would do is they would go to an auditorium that had a satellite uplink, and then they would have people go to theaters or ballrooms and hotels that had satellite downlinks, and then would broadcast, you know, the product introductions, whatever.

所以我们对他们说：你们花数百万美元去触达所有员工，其实完全可以用更便宜的方式做到。

And so we said to them, look, you're paying millions of dollars to reach all your employees when you can do it.

付给我们五十万美元，我们就能通过他们工作中的电脑完成。

Pay us a half $1,000,000, and we'll do it just on their PCs at work.

所以当英特尔发布P90电脑时，我们向他们收取了两百万美元之类的费用。

So we did you know, when Intel announced the p 90 PC, we, you know, charged them $2,000,000 or whatever to do that.

当摩托罗拉发布新手机或新产品时，我们会向他们收费。

When Motorola announced a new phone or a new product, we would charge them.

因此，我们利用消费端作为网络的原型验证，然后将这些经验应用到企业客户身上，这就是我们的收入来源。

And so we used the consumer side to do a proof of concept for the network, and then we would take that knowledge and go to corporations, and that's how we made our revenue.

在企业这边也存在一些销售工作。

And there's some selling there with the corporations.

是的。

Yeah.

那里确实需要大量销售，但我们为他们节省了大量资金。

A lot of selling there, but we're saving them so much money.

是的。

Yeah.

他们都是科技公司。

And they were technology companies.

他们希望被视为技术前沿的公司。

They wanted to be perceived as being leading edge.

没错。

Yep.

所以这是双赢。

And so it was win win.

需要多少技术能力？

How much technical savvy was required?

你说过有很多服务器。

You said a bunch of servers.

比如，你们在哪个阶段会增加更多工程师？

Like, at which point do you get more engineers?

你们自己能理解并完成多少？

How much did you understand could do yourself?

当你不能再独自完成所有工作时，需要具备多少技术能力，才能足够了解该雇佣什么样的人来持续构建和创新？

And then also, once you can't do it all yourself, how much technical savvy is required to understand enough to hire the right people to keep building this and innovate?

所有技术工作都是我亲自做的，然后我们一个接一个地雇佣工程师来实现它。

I did all the technology, and then we hired engineer after engineer after engineer to implement it.

哇。

And so Wow.

是的。

Yeah.

从搭建组播网络到软件，再到各种不同的东西。

From putting together a multicast network to software to just all these different things.

这会不会很吓人？

Was this like a scary thing?

就像它是

Like It's

令人恐惧的。

terrifying.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

因为当我们成长时，要跟上规模，我们实际上是在购买现成的PC，随着技术进步，还会购买服务器卡、硬盘等，而这些设备会故障，我们必须手动处理——那时候还没有机器学习来分析如何分配服务器资源。

Because as we were growing, trying to keep up the scale, and literally, we're buying off the shelf PCs and then, you know, server cards as the technology advanced and hard drives and things would fail, and we would have to you know, we didn't have machine learning back then to do an analysis of, you know, how to distribute server, you know, resources.

所以，你知道，有一段时间，比尔·克林顿和莫妮卡·莱温斯基的事情发生了。

So, you know, like, there was there was a time when Bill Clinton and all the Monica Lewinsky stuff happened.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们发布了对他的采访录音之类的。

They released the audio of their interviews of him or something like that.

对吧？

Right?

就在那件事公布的时候，我知道公司里的每个人都会想听那段录音。

And we literally I knew at that point in time when that was released, everybody at work was going to want to listen to it.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Yep.

所以我们不得不关闭正在运行芝加哥小熊队比赛的服务器。

So we had to take down servers that were doing Chicago Cubs baseball.

对吧？

Right?

你知道的。

You know?

我们只能临时做这些决定，因为当时没有工具可以分析或进行预测。

And just make all these on the fly decisions because there was no we didn't have the tools to analyze or predict be predictive.

但没错，这一切都是由技术和营销驱动的。

But, yeah, it was it was all technology driven and marketing.

雅虎收购这件事，你能讲讲吗？

The acquisition by Yahoo, can you tell the story of that?

但更广泛地说，在这个互联网泡沫的背景下，这是人类历史上一个非常有趣的部分。

But also in the broader context of this Internet bubble, this is a fascinating part of human history.

是的。

Yeah.

在收购方面，我们是互联网上最大的媒体网站，而且遥遥领先。

So on the acquisition side, we were the largest media site on the Internet, and it wasn't close.

没有任何人能与我们相比。

There was nobody close.

我们就像当时的YouTube，相对而言，我们的规模是竞争对手的十倍，因为根本没人能与我们竞争。

We were YouTube, and relatively speaking, we would be 10 x YouTube relative to the competition because there was nobody there.

因此，雅虎、美国在线等公司都意识到，它们需要一个多媒体组件，而我们拥有基础设施、销售团队等所有资源。

And so it became obvious to Yahoo, AOL, and others that they needed a multimedia component, and we had the infrastructure, sales, all that stuff.

所以，雅虎在我们1998年上市前后——我想应该是上市前——投资了大约200万美元，这让我们与他们建立了联系。

And so Yahoo, when we went public in '98, or right before, I think it was, they made an investment of, like, $2,000,000, which gave us a connection to them.

上市之后，他们决定必须拥有多媒体业务。

And then after we went public, they decided they needed to have multimedia.

所以我们在1999年4月达成了协议，而交易实际完成是在2000年7月。

And so in April '99, we made a deal, and then July 2000 is when it closed.

你能给我解释一下之后你做的那些复杂操作吗？

And can you explain to me the trickiness of what you did after that?

哦，那个领子期权？

Oh, the the the collar?

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

当我们卖给雅虎时，交易价格是57亿美元的股票，而不是现金。

So when we sold to Yahoo, we sold for $5,700,000,000 in stock, not cash.

所以，在出售微解决方案公司后，我拿到了那笔钱。

And so I looked at you know, after Microsolutions, when I sold that, I took that money.

起初，我告诉我的经纪人，我想像一个60岁的老人那样投资，因为我希望保护这笔资金。

And initially, I I told my broker I wanted to invest like a 60 year old man because I wanted to protect it.

是的。

Yeah.

但他开始问我各种关于这些技术的问题，而我对这些技术很了解，比如我安装过的网络。

But then he started asking me all kinds of questions about all these technologies that I understood, like networks I had installed.

我们一度成为全国前20大系统集成商之一。

We had become one of the top 20, let's say, systems integrators in the country.

有一段时间，我们是全国最大的IBM令牌环网络安装商。

At one point in time, we're the largest IBM token ring installer in the country.

这太疯狂了。

It was crazy.

对吧？

Right?

Banyan。

Banyan.

哇。

Wow.

这名字真是让人怀念过去。

The name blast from the past.

我的意思是，总之，当时那些华尔街的银行家或者更准确说是分析师们会给我打电话，因为他们会问我的经纪人：‘他对这个产品了解多少？’

I mean, so anyway, so these Wall Street bankers or analysts rather that were the big analysts of the time would call me up because they would ask my broker, what does he know about this product?

而我全都了解它们，知道哪些能用哪些不能用。

And I knew them all, what was working and not working.

对吧？

Right?

所以那些有效的，你知道，我说那是在运作，我看到股票他们说点什么，股票就会涨20美元。

And so the ones that work, you know, I say that's working, I see the stock they say something, the stock would go up $20.

对吧？

Right?

所以我就想，嗯，我的经纪人就说，你需要比他们更了解这个。

So I'm like, well and my broker's like, you need to you know this better than they do.

你需要投资。

You need to invest.

于是我开始买卖股票，那是1990年，我赚得风生水起。

So I started buying and selling stocks, and this was in 1990 and was just killing it.

在接下来的四年里，我每年的收益高达百分之八十、九十甚至一百%，以至于有个人来找我，想用我的交易记录来成立一只对冲基金，我们就这样做了，但我九个月后就卖掉了。

I was making eighty, ninety, a 100% a year over those next four years to the point where a guy came in and asked to use my trading history to start a hedge fund, which we did, and I sold within nine months.

那真是太棒了。

It was great.

对吧？

Right?

但重点是，当我们卖给雅虎时，我已经积累了丰富的股票交易经验。

But the point being as it goes forward, so when we sold to Yahoo, I already had a lot of experience trading stocks.

我亲眼见证了多个泡沫的兴起与破灭。

And I had seen different bubbles come and go.

有个人电脑制造商的泡沫，也有网络设备制造商的泡沫。

A bubble for PC manufacturers, a bubble for networking manufacturers.

它们一路飙升，然后在炒作过后，或者被别人超越之后，又直线下跌。

They went up, up, up, up, up, and then they came straight down after the hype, or somebody just leapfrogged.

所以当我们卖给雅虎时，我觉得我的名字旁边有个B。

And so when we sold to Yahoo, I was like, I've got a B next to my name.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这对我来说就足够了，也是我想要的。

That's all I need or all I want.

我不想太贪心。

I don't want to be greedy.

我以前见过这样的故事：股票变得极度泡沫化，然后直线下跌。

And I'd seen this story before where stocks get really frothy and go straight down.

我知道这一点，因为我的全部资产都投入了股票，所以我需要找到一种方法来对冲并保护它。

And I knew that because all of what I had was in stock, I needed to find a way to collar it and protect it.

因此，凭借我对股票、交易和期权的了解，我和我的经纪人一起做空了一个包含雅虎股票的指数。

So understanding stocks and trading and options and all that, my broker and I, we went and shorted an index that had Yahoo in it.

当时的规定是，不能做空任何包含超过5%该股票的指数。

And so the law at the time was you couldn't short any indexes that had more than 5% of that stock in it.

对吧？

Right?

关于雅虎股票的任何人的部分。

That of anyone's of the Yahoo stock.

于是我拿出了当时我所有的大约两千万美元，做空了那个指数。

And so I took pretty much 20 some million dollars, everything I had at the time, and I shorted the index.

这很有趣，因为这是基于你对这是一场泡沫的判断。

This is fascinating, by the way, because it's based on your estimation that this is a bubble.

或者只是我不想要贪婪。

Or just my not wanting to be greedy.

当然。

Sure.

所以，这类事情的基础是你不想贪婪。

So you're the foundation of this kind of thing is you don't want to be greedy.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我需要多少钱？

I mean, how much money do I need?

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Yeah.

你知道的。

You know?

其他人说，哦，我觉得股价还会继续涨，涨得更高。

Where other people were saying, oh, I think it go up higher, higher, higher.

我当时上了CNBC，告诉他们我做了什么，而他们说，雅虎股票自从我做了领口期权策略后已经大幅上涨了。

I was like, I I went on CNBC, and I told them what I had done, and they were like and Yahoo stock had gone up significantly from the time I had had collared.

其中一个人，乔·科南，也在那里，问：‘雅虎股价又涨了百分之几十，你现在不觉得蠢吗？’

And one of the guys, Joe Kernan, was on there, don't you feel stupid now that Yahoo stock has gone up, you know, x percent more?

我说：‘是啊。'

I'm like, yeah.

我坐在自己的喷气式飞机上，感觉真蠢。

I feel real stupid sitting on my jet.

是啊。

Yeah.

但所以我说，泡沫在根本上是源于这种贪婪。

But so you I mean, there is some fundamental way in which bubbles are based on this greed.

当然了。

Oh, for sure.

当然了。

For sure.

是啊。

Yeah.

我以前就见过这种情况。

And I'd seen it before.

对吧？

Right?