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以下是与谷歌和Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊的对话。现在快速提一下这些赞助商。详情请查看描述或访问lexfreeman.com/sponsors。这是支持本播客的最佳方式。我们有Tax Network USA处理税务问题,BetterHelp提供心理健康服务,Element补充电解质,Shopify助力在线销售,以及AG one每日复合维生素饮品。
The following is a conversation with Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google and Alphabet. And now a quick few second mention of these sponsor. Check them out in the description or at lexfreeman.com/sponsors. It's the best way to support this podcast. We got Tax Network USA for taxes, BetterHelp for mental health, Element for electrolytes, Shopify for selling stuff online, and AG one for your daily multivitamin drink.
明智选择吧,朋友们。现在进入正题。你可以跳过赞助环节,但如果跳过,请仍去看看我们的赞助商。我喜欢他们的产品,或许你也会。
Choose wisely, my friends. And now onto the phalatteries. You can skip them if you like, but if you do, please still check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too.
若因任何事想联系我,请访问lexriemann.com/contact。好了,开始吧。本期由Tax Network USA赞助,这是一家专注于为个人和小企业解决税务问题的全方位服务公司。记得在准备罗马帝国那期节目时,我多次遇到关于罗马帝国复杂税收算法的严谨讨论。
If If you you want to get in touch with me for whatever reason, go to lexriemann.com/contact. Alright. Let's go. This episode is brought to you by Tax Network USA, a full service tax firm focused on solving tax problems for individuals and for small businesses. I remember when I was preparing for the Roman Empire episode, I came across a lot of places where there was a rigorous discussion about the intricate tax collection algorithms used by the Roman Empire.
我用'算法'这个词是因为本质上存在一个系统流程,根据你的地理位置、身份、职业等各种因素确定应纳税额。可悲的是,早期这些规则本为保护个人而赋予其权力,但当规则过于复杂时,官僚体系和中央权力就开始滥用规则,个人因无法理解复杂性而丧失权力——这就是为什么你需要注册会计师和事务所来应对复杂税务。总之他们很专业,今天就可以免费咨询他们的策略师。
The reason I use the word algorithms is basically, there's a systematic process for determining how much you owe based on your location, based on your status, based on your job, based on all these kinds of factors. It's sad, but those rules in the early days initially give power to the individual because they protect the individual. But when they become too complicated, then the bureaucracy, the centralized power starts to abuse its power by using the rules, and then the individual loses power because they can't figure out the complexity of the rules, and that's essentially why you need the CPAs and the firms to figure out the complexity. Anyway, these guys are good. Talk with one of their strategists for free today.
致电+1 809581000或访问tnusa.com/lex。本期由BetterHelp(拼写h-e-l-p)赞助。最近在旧金山见到许多有趣的人,此行部分是为庆祝约书亚·巴赫和新成立的加州机器意识研究所(顺便强烈推荐你们去看看)。
Call +1 809581000, or go to tnusa.com/lex. This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp, spelled h e l p help. I got to recently meet a lot of interesting people when I visited San Francisco. Was there in part to celebrate Yoshua Bach and the newly launched California Institute for Machine Consciousness. I, by the way, encourage you to check it out.
应该是cimc.ai。在那里我与许多杰出人士交谈,其中一位研究生正在研究所谓的'黑暗三联征'——自恋、马基雅维利主义和精神病态这三种人格特质。有那么一瞬间,我甚至希望自己当初选择了研究人类心智的道路。或许通过AI、编程、系统构建,乃至现在的播客,我最终还是迂回实现了这个梦想。说这些是因为这些课题研究的是人类心智的极端表现,而极端不过是复杂系统的边缘。
I think it's cimc.ai. And there, I talked to a lot of brilliant people, and one of them was a grad student studying the so called dark triad. These are the three personality traits of narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. A little bit for a brief moment, it made me wish I took that path of studying the human mind, And perhaps that is the indirect way through all the AI, through all the programming, through all the building of systems, and now with the podcast, maybe I somehow sneaked up to that dream in the end. Anyway, I say all that because these topics are studying the extremes of the human mind, but of course, the extremes are just the edges of an incredibly complicated system.
通过谈话疗法来研究和反思这些心智过程实在令人着迷。你可以访问betterhelp.com/lex,首月享受优惠。本期还由Element赞助——我每日饮用的零糖美味电解质冲剂。
That's just so fascinating to study, to reflect on, to put a mirror to all those processes that you do through talk therapy. They're just fascinating. Anyway, you can check them out at betterhelp.com/lex and save on your first month. That's betterhelp.com/lex. This episode is also brought to you by Element, my daily zero sugar and delicious electrolyte mix.
我不想深入讨论,但确实有很多研究表明:当大脑钠含量降低时,人类认知处理速度会下降多少?反应时间会延迟多少?钠和钾在化学层面上对大脑运作至关重要。
I'm not gonna go down the rabbit hole, but there's a lot of interesting studies that measure the decreased performance of the human brain. So cognitive processing speed, for example. By what amount does it decrease? Reaction time, by what amount does it decrease when you decrease the brain's sodium levels, for example. Sodium and potassium really are important on a chemical level for the functioning of the human brain.
纵观历史,人类早就明白水的价值,但'脱水'作为医学概念直到19世纪才出现。看看医学史就会觉得我们过去懂得太少,这也让我意识到:相对于未来百年千年的认知,我们现在知道的仍微乎其微。人体这个生物系统复杂得惊人,而我们有时却对健康疾病等问题表现出十足把握,想想挺有趣的。现在任意消费即可获赠免费试用装。
Now obviously, all throughout human history, people understood the value of water, but as a medical concept, the concept of dehydration only came about in the nineteenth century. If we just look at the history of medicine, it's kind of hilarious how little we knew before, and it makes me think we know very little now relative to what we will know in a hundred and a thousand years. The human body, the biological system of the human body is incredibly complicated. So for us to have the certainty that we sometimes exude about the human body, about what we understand about disease, about health, it's kinda funny. Anyway, get a sample pack for free with any purchase.
访问drinkelement.com/lex尝试。本期还由Shopify赞助——这个平台能让任何人在任何地方开设精美网店。再次声明,我经常这样:不聊Shopify本身,而是聊其CEO托比。就像我之前提到的约书亚·巴赫和新成立的加州机器意识研究所,托比也是该机构的重要支持者。
Try it at drinkelement.com/lex. This episode is also brought to you by Shopify, a platform designed for anyone to sell anywhere with a great looking online store. Once again, I do this often where I don't just or at all talk about Shopify, instead talk about the CEO of Shopify, Toby. He once again, like I mentioned, with Yoshua Bach and newly launched CIMC, California Institute of Machine Consciousness. He's a big supporter of that too.
很多人问我为什么还没和他一起做播客。我也不知道。相信很快会有机会,毕竟我很久没见到他了。来自各行各业的人们都深深敬佩他的智慧、经商之道以及他的人格魅力。总之,不知为何在此提及,还是回到正题吧。
And a bunch of people have asked me why I have not done a podcast with him yet. I don't know either. I'm sure it's gonna happen soon, and I haven't seen him in quite a while. A lot of people from a lot of walks of life deeply respect him for his intellect, for the way he does business, and just for the human being he is. So, anyway, not sure why I mentioned that here, but back to what this is supposed to be.
你可以像我一样在lxtreatment.com/shop上在线卖T恤。开店超级简单,我几分钟就搞定了。还能说什么呢?你也该试试。
You can sell shirts online like I did at lxtreatment.com/shop. Super easy to set up a store. I did in a few minutes. What else can I say? You should do it too.
前往shopify.com/luxe(全小写)注册1美元月试用期,即刻将事业提升至新高度。本期节目也由AG1赞助——一款支持健康与巅峰表现的每日全能饮品。前几天我在德克萨斯酷热中练习柔术时,首先意识到这段武道之旅何其漫长而充实,两个人类试图折断对方肢体的博弈谜题,加上摔跤与缠斗部分,实在引人入胜。
Sign up for $1 per month trial period at shopify.com/luxe. That's all lowercase. Go to shopify.com/luxe to take your business to the next level today. This episode is also brought to you by AG one, an all in one daily drink to support better health and peak performance. I was training jujitsu the other day in that wonderful Texas heat, and I was reminded, first of all, how long my journey with Jitsu has been and how fulfilling it has been, how interesting the exploration of the puzzle of two humans trying to break each other's arms and legs, plus the wrestling and the grappling component.
杠杆、力量、速度如何被化解,如何通过技巧而非蛮力(通常用错地方的力气)控制人体,这些都很有意思。毕竟我有时会连续数周不训练,心肺功能立刻显疲态。
Really interesting. Leverage, power, speed, how all that could be neutralized. How to control a human body with leverage or technique as opposed to raw generally misapplied strength, I should say. Anyway, because there are times where there's long stretches of weeks where I don't train. You feel it in the cardio.
几轮对抗后呼吸就变得短促,疲惫让头脑昏沉,你会更趋保守以免陷入被动,不必在精疲力竭后苦战脱困。那天训练完回家,我享用了一罐冰镇AG1。注册drinkag1.com/lex可获赠一个月鱼油补给。这里是Lex Freedom播客。
You do a bunch of rounds, and you just the breaths are shallow. You feel like the mind is hazy from exhaustion, that you're a little bit more risk averse because you don't wanna end up in a bad position, have to battle out of that bad position after many rounds of exhausting battles. And after that training session when I got home, I enjoyed a nice cold AG one. They'll give you a one month supply of fish oil when you sign up at drinkag1.com/lex. This is the Lex Freedom Podcast.
支持我们请查看简介或访问lexfreeman.com/sponsors的赞助商信息。现在有请桑达尔·皮查伊。你的人生故事激励了无数人,包括我。你在印度长大,全家住着简陋的两居室,几乎接触不到科技。
To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfreeman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, here's Sundar Bachai. Your life story is inspiring to a lot of people. It's inspiring to me. You grew up in India, whole family living in a humble two room apartment, very little, almost no access to technology.
从这般起点,你最终领导着市值2万亿美元的科技公司。如果穿越回去告诉12岁的桑达尔这个未来,你觉得那个孩子会作何反应?
And from those humble beginnings, you rose to lead a $2,000,000,000,000 technology company. So if you could travel back in time and told that, let's say, 12 year old Sundar, that you're now leading one of the largest companies in human history, what do you think that young kid would say?
我大概会一笑置之。那时候觉得这太天方夜谭了。首先你得给我解释什么是互联网——毕竟1984年我12岁时,电脑对我而言...
I would have probably laughed it off. You know, probably too far fetched to imagine or believe at that time. You would have to explain the Internet first. For sure. I mean, computers to me at that time, you know, I was 12 in 1984.
可能那时我已开始阅读相关书籍了。
So probably, you know, by then, I had started reading about them.
我还没见过电脑。带我去看看你的童年吧。你知道,我成长在...
I hadn't seen one. What was that place like? Take me to your childhood. You know, I grew
在印度南部的金奈长大。那是个美丽繁华的城市,人潮涌动,充满活力。你知道的,简单的生活里,最怀念的就是在家门外打板球的时光。
up in Chennai. It's in South Of India. It's a beautiful bustling city. Lots of people, lots of energy. You know, simple life, definitely, like, fond memories of playing cricket outside the home.
我们直接在街上打球。街坊的孩子们都会出来,赤着脚玩到天黑看不见为止。有车经过时,我们就暂停比赛,等车开过去继续打——你可以想象那个画面。
We just used to play on the streets. All the neighborhood kids would come out, and we would play till it got dark, and we couldn't play anymore barefoot. Traffic would come. We would just stop the game. Everything would drive through, and you would just continue playing, right, just to kinda get the visual in your head.
现在回想起来,前电脑时代确实有很多空闲时间。如今反而要刻意寻找那种宁静。那时候我通过报纸书籍接触世界信息。我祖父在邮局工作,对我影响很大。
You know, precomputers is a lot of free time now I now that I think about it. Now you have to go and seek that quiet solitude or something. Newspapers, books is how I gained access to the world's information at that time, if you will. My grandfather was a big influence. He worked in the post office.
他的语言能力极强,英语说得漂亮,至今他的字迹仍是我见过最工整的。他文笔清晰,谈吐不凡,就这样引领我走进了书的世界。
He was so good with language. His English, you know, his handwriting till today is the most beautiful handwriting I've ever seen. He would write so clearly. He was so articulate. And so he kinda got me introduced into books.
他热衷政治,所以我们无话不谈。家里到处都是书——通俗小说、严肃文学,从安·兰德的著作到哲学书籍再到低俗犯罪小说。书籍是我生命的重要部分,后来加入谷歌也不意外,因为谷歌'整合全球信息'的使命一直深深触动我,那种对知识的渴望早已刻在骨子里。
He loved politics, so we we could talk about anything. And, you know, that was there in my family throughout. So lots of books, trashy books, good books, everything from Iron Rand to books on philosophy to stupid crime novels. So books was a big part of my life, but that kind of this whole it's not surprising I ended up at Google because Google's mission kind of always resonated deeply with me. This access to knowledge, I was hungry for it.
童年回忆确实美好。虽然当时获取知识的途径有限,但已是我们最大的助力。科技方面则要漫长等待——我常说起家里等了五年才装上电话,但这只是冰山一角。
But definitely have, you know, fond memories of my childhood. Access to knowledge was there, so that's the help we had. You know, every aspect of technology, had to wait for a while. I've obviously spoken before about how long it took for us to get a phone, about five years, but it's not the only thing. A telephone.
当时要排五年队才能装一部转盘电话。
There was a five year waiting list, and we got a rotary telephone.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但这彻底改变了我们的生活。邻居会来我家打电话联系亲人。以前我要花两小时去医院取验血报告,经常白跑一趟被告知'还没好,明天再来',又得花两小时回去。后来这事五分钟就能搞定。
But it dramatically changed our lives. You know, people would come to our house to make calls to their loved ones. You know, I I would have to go all the way to the hospital to get blood test records, and it would take two hours to go. And they would say, sorry. It's not ready.
作为孩子,我那时就深刻意识到科技改变生活的力量。要知道,我们那时候连自来水都没有。
Come back the next day. Two hours to come back. And that became a five minute thing. So as a kid, like, even this light bulb went in my head, you know, this power of technology to kinda change people's lives. We had no running water.
你知道,那是一场严重的旱灾。所以他们用卡车运水,每户大概能分到八桶。我和我弟弟,有时还有我妈,就会排队领水,然后搬回家。多年以后,我们有了自来水,还有了热水器,可以洗热水澡了。我是说,对我来说,每件事都是这样分阶段实现的。
You know, it was a massive drought. So they would get water in these trucks, maybe eight buckets per household. So me and my brother, sometimes my mom, we would wait in line, get that, and bring it back home. Many years later, like, we had running water, and we had a water heater, and you could get hot water to take a shower. I mean, like so, you know, for me, everything was discrete like that.
所以我一直有种切身体会,就是科技如何能戏剧性地改变你的生活,以及它带来的机遇。这成了我成长过程中潜移默化的感悟。我真的亲眼见证并感受过这种变化。明白吗?比如我们花了很长时间才说服我爸买录像机。
And so I've always had this thing, you know, firsthand feeling of, like, how technology can dramatically change, like, your life and, like, the opportunity it brings. So, you know, that was kind of a subliminal takeaway for me throughout growing up. And, you know, I I kinda actually observed it and felt it. You know? So we had to convince my dad for a long time to get a a VCR.
你知道录像机是什么吗?知道?我这是在试探你的年龄呢。对,因为在那之前,你基本上只能看一个电视频道。
Do you know what a VCR is? Yeah? I'm trying to date you now. Yeah. You know, because before that, you only had, like, kinda one TV channel.
嗯哼,对吧?就那样。等到我高三的时候,我们才买了录像机。
Mhmm. Right? That's it. And so, you know, you can watch movies or something like that. But this is by the time I was in twelfth grade, we got a VCR.
知道吗?是台松下牌的,我们得去某家可能走私进来的店铺才买到。但之后就能录世界杯足球赛,租录像带看电影之类的。这些零散的记忆让我深刻体会到,获得科技如何能带来生活的飞跃。
You know? It was a, like, a Panasonic, which we had to go to some, like, shop, which had kinda smuggled it in, I guess, and that's where we bought a VCR. But then being able to record, like, a World Cup football game and then or, like, get put, like, videotapes and watch movies, like, all that. So, like, you know, I had these discrete memories growing up. And so, you know, always left me with the feeling of, like, how getting access to technology drives that step change in your life.
我觉得第一次用上热水的体验永远无法被超越。
I don't think you'll ever be able to equal the first time you get hot water.
那种打开水龙头就有热水的便利?确实。
To have that convenience of going and opening a tap and have hot water come out? Yeah.
有意思。我们对进步习以为常。纵观人类历史,看看那些描绘两千年GDP的曲线,会发现工业革命后指数级增长。但我们视之为理所当然,忘了走了多远。我们既难以理解现状有多美好,也低估了技术迭代的速度。
It's interesting. We take for granted the progress we've made. If you look at human history, just those plots that look at GDP across two thousand years, and you see that exponential growth to where most of the progress happened since the industrial revolution, And we just take for granted. We forget how how far we've gone. So our ability to understand how great we have it and also how quickly technology can improve is quite poor.
噢,这太不可思议了。如今我回到印度,移动互联网的力量——看到这种跨越式发展简直令人震撼。
Oh, I mean, it's it's extraordinary. You know, I go back to India now, the power of mobile. You know, it's mind blowing to see the progress through the
时间的长河确实神奇。对于那些仰望你、被你的故事激励的全球年轻人,对于那些想成为下一个桑达尔·皮查伊、想要创业创造世界影响力的人,你会给出什么建议?
arc of time. It's phenomenal. What advice would you give to young folks listening to this all over the world who look up to you and find your story inspiring? Who wanna be maybe the next Sundar Bachai? Who wanna start, create companies, build something that has a lot of impact in the world?
看吧。一路上你确实需要很多运气,但显然也得做出明智选择。你在思考自己想做什么。你的大脑在给你信号。但当你做事时,我认为重要的是要倾听内心,看看你是否真正乐在其中。
Look. It's you have a lot of luck along the way, but you obviously have to make smart choices. You're thinking about what you wanna do. Your brain is telling you something. But when you do things, I think it's important to kinda get that listen to your heart and see whether you actually enjoy doing it.
对吧?那种热爱所做的事的感觉会让一切变得轻松许多,你会看到最好的自己。说起来容易做起来难。我觉得找到热爱之事很难。但在确定人生方向时,比起理性思考,我更建议多听听内心的声音——这大概是我最想告诉人们的建议之一。
Right? That that feeling of if you love what you do, it's so much easier, and you're going to see the best version of yourself. It's easier said than done. I think it's tough to find things you love doing. But I think kind of listening to your heart a bit more than your mind in terms of figuring out what you wanna do, I think I think is one of the best things I would tell people.
第二点是,我人生不同阶段都刻意与比我优秀的人共事。就像你坐在房间里与人交谈时,突然产生'哇'的惊叹感。这种体验很重要。让自己处于能力被不断挑战的环境中,我认为这才是成长的关键。所以要主动踏入不适区。
The second thing is, I mean, trying to work with people who you feel at various points in my life, I worked with people who I felt were better than me. Like, kind of like, you know, you almost are sitting in a room talking to someone, and they're like, wow. Like, you know, you know, and you want that feeling a few times. Trying to get yourself in a position where you're working with people who you feel are kind of, like, stretching your abilities is what helps you grow, I think. So putting yourself in uncomfortable situations.
往往你会因此惊艳到自己。所以保持开放心态,主动置身这样的处境,或许是另一点建议
And I think often, you'll surprise yourself. So I think being open minded enough to kind of put yourself in those positions is maybe maybe another thing
我想问。从旁观者角度看你的故事,我注意到你谦逊、善良。通常像你这样攀上领导层巅峰的人,在残酷竞争中往往会变得有点混蛋。而你始终保持着平衡、谦卑、倾听所有人的处事智慧,我们该从中领悟什么?
I would say. What lessons can we learn maybe from an outsider perspective for me, looking at your story and gotten to know you a bit, you're humble. You're kind. Usually, when I think of somebody who has had a journey like yours and climbs to the very top of leadership, they're use in a cutthroat world, they're usually gonna be a bit of an asshole. So what wisdom were we supposed to draw from the fact that your general approach of is of balance of humility, of kindness listening to everybody?
你的秘诀究竟是什么?
What's what's what's your secret?
我也会生气会沮丧。在工作等场景中,我和大家有着相同情绪。但有几点很重要
I do get angry. I do get frustrated. I I have the same emotions all of us do, right, in the context of work and everything. But a few things. Right?
经过这些年,我悟透了激发他人潜力的最佳方式。找到那些有使命感、追求卓越的同行者,用共同愿景激励他们——这样往往能成就非凡
I I I think, you know, I over time, I figured out the best way to get the most out of people. You know, you kinda find mission oriented people who are in the shared journey, who have this inner drive to excellence to do the best. And and, you know, you kinda motivate people, and and and you can you can achieve a lot that way. Right? And so it it often tends to work out that way.
当然我也失控过。只是频率可能比常人低些。随着年岁增长愈发少见,因为...我发现根本没必要
But have there been times, like, you know, I loo lose it? Yeah. But, you know, not maybe less often than others. And maybe over the years, less and less so because, you know, I I find it's not needed
靠发火解决不了问题?
to achieve what you need to do. So losing your shit has not been productive?
是啊。这种情况并不常见。我觉得人们会对那种情况做出反应。是的。他们可能会采取行动来应对,比如,你实际上希望他们做正确的事。
Yeah. Less often than not. I think people respond to that. Yeah. They may do stuff to react to that, like, what you you actually want them to do the right thing.
而且,所以,你知道,可能有点像体育。懂吗?我是个体育迷。在足球领域,教练们...人们经常谈论的是人员管理。
And and and so, you know, maybe there's a bit of, like, sports. You know? You know, I'm a sports fan. In football, coaches in soccer that football. You know, people people often talk about, like, man management.
对吧?伟大的教练都擅长这个。我认为我们生活中也有这种元素。你如何让共事的人发挥出最佳状态?
Right? Great coaches do. Right? I think there is an element of that in our lives. How do you get the best out of the people you work with?
有时候,你合作的人非常执着于达成目标。如果他们做错了事,他们比你更难受。所以你要用不同方式对待他们。偶尔也会遇到需要明确告知'这样不行'的人,但我发现这种情况其实不多。
You know, at times, you're working with people who who are so committed to achieving. If they've done something wrong, they feel it more than you you do. Right? So you treat them differently than you know, occasionally, are people who you need to clearly let them know, like, that wasn't okay or whatever it is, but I've often found that not to be the case.
有时候在正确时机说出的正确话语,只要说得坚定,就能产生深远的影响。
And sometimes the right words at the right time, spoken firmly, can reverberate through time.
还有时候是未说出口的话。嗯。人们有时能看出来你不高兴,即使你不说。所以有时候沉默传递的信息更强烈。
Also, sometimes the unspoken words. Mhmm. You know, people can sometimes see that, like, you know, you're unhappy without you saying it. And so sometimes the silence can deliver that message even more.
有时候少即是多。史上最伟大的足球运动员是谁?梅西、C罗、贝利还是马拉多纳?
Sometimes less is more. Who's the greatest soccer player of all time? Messi or Ronaldo or Pele or Maradona?
关于这个问题,我要...
I'm gonna make, you know, in this question
这会是个政治正确的回答吗?
Is this gonna be a political answer?
我不会...我...我会说出真实的答案,因为...
I'm gonna no. I I will I I will tell the truthful answer because
所以它是
the the So it's
一团糟。好吧。确实。你知道,这很有趣,因为我儿子是C罗的铁杆粉丝。
messy. Okay. Right. It is. You know, it's been interesting because my son is a big Cristiano Ronaldo fan.
所以我们不得不一起看国家德比,你知道的,带着那种氛围。我太敬佩C罗了。我是说,我从未见过哪个运动员对那种卓越如此执着,他是史上最伟大的球员之一。
And so we've had to watch El Classico's together, you know, with with that dynamic in there. I so admire C. R. Simmons. I mean, I've never seen an athlete more committed to that kind of excellence, and so he's one of the all time greats.
但对我来说,梅西才是那个人。是的。
But, you know, for me, Messi is it. Yeah.
当我看到利昂·梅西时,你会对人类能达到那种伟大、天才和艺术性的水平感到敬畏。艺术性。我们稍后会讨论人工智能,也许还有机器人技术这类东西。那种天才水平,我很长时间内都不确定AI能否匹敌。这就是伟大的典范。
When I see Leon Leon Messi, you just are in awe that humans are able to achieve that level of greatness and genius and artistry. Artistry. When we talk, we'll talk about AI, maybe robotics, and this kind of stuff. That level of genius, I'm not sure you can possibly match by AI in a long time. It's just an example of greatness.
其他领域也有那种伟大,但在体育中,你能直观地看到它,这是独一无二的。那种时机把握、移动,就是天才。
And you have that kind of greatness in other disciplines, but in sport, you get to visually see it unlike anything else. And just the the timing, the movement, this is genius.
我有机会几周前看到他。他在圣何塞比赛。嗯。对阵地震队。我去看了比赛。是个球迷,有好座位,知道他会下半场出场,希望如此。
I had the chance to see him couple weeks ago. He played in San Jose Mhmm. So against the Quake. So I went to see it, see the game. Was a fan on the had good seats, knew where he would play in the second half, hopefully.
即使在他这个年纪,只要看他拿球时的移动,你知道,你说得对。那种特别的品质。很难描述,但当你
And even at his age, just watching him when he gets the ball, that movement, you know, you you're right. That special quality. It's tough to describe, but you feel it when
看到时就能感受到。是的。他依然宝刀未老。如果我们给人类历史上所有技术创新排名——也许追溯到一万两千年前的人类文明史,按它们带来的生产力倍增效应来排。我们可以选电力或工业革命的机械化劳动,或者一千年前的第一次农业革命。
you see it. Yeah. He's still got it. If we rank all the technological innovations throughout human history let's go back maybe the history of human civilizations twelve thousand years ago, and you rank them by the how much of a productivity multiplier they've been. So we can go to electricity or the labor mechanization of the industrial revolution, or we can go back to the first agricultural revolution to a thousand years ago.
在那个长长的发明列表中,你认为AI在一千年后的历史书写中,有机会成为头号生产力倍增器吗?
In that long list of inventions, do you think AI, when history is written a thousand years from now, do you think it has a chance to be the number one productivity multiplier?
这是个很好的问题。你看,很多年前,大概是2017或2018年,我当时说过,人工智能将是人类有史以来研发的最深远的技术,其影响将超越火或电。我必须坚持自己的观点。
It's a great question. Look. Many years ago, I think it might have been 2017 or 2018, you know, I I said at the time, like, you know, AI is the most profound technology humanity will ever work on. It'll be more profound than fire or electricity. I have to back myself.
我现在依然这么认为。当你提出这个问题时,我在想,我们是否存在近因偏差?就像在体育界,人们总容易把眼前看到的选手称为最伟大的。
I, you know, I still think that's the case. You know, when you asked this question, I'm I was thinking, well, do we have a recency bias? Right? You know? Like, in sports, it's very tempting to call the current person you're seeing the greatest Yes.
那么是否存在这种偏差?从第一性原理出发,我认为人工智能的影响将超越所有那些发明。我虽未亲身经历那些时代,
Player. Right? And and so is there a recency bias? And, you know, I do think, from first principles, I would argue AI will be bigger than all of those. I didn't live through those moments.
但两年前我经历手术时突然意识到,人类曾有过没有麻醉剂的时代。那一刻我觉得,麻醉术堪称人类最伟大的发明。我们无法真正体会那些时代的生存状态,但电力、互联网这些基础性发明确实重塑了万物。
You know, two years ago, I had to go through a surgery, and then I processed that there was a point in time people didn't have anesthesia when they went through these procedures. At that moment, I was like, that has got to be the greatest invention humanity has ever ever done. Right? So, look, we we don't know what it is to have lived through those times. But, you know, many of what you're talking about were kind of this general things which pretty much affected everything, you know, electricity or Internet, etcetera.
但从未有哪种技术像AI这样:发展如此迅猛,能力边界未知,且具备递归自我提升的特性。
But I don't think we've ever dealt with a technology, both which is progressing so fast, becoming so capable. It's not clear what the ceiling is. And the main unique it's recursively self improving. Right? It's capable of that.
它将成为首个能显著加速创造本身的技术——自主改进、实现目标的能力使其独树一帜。我认为其最终影响力将远超以往所有发明。当然,这也带来许多需要审慎思考的课题。
And so the fact it is going it's the first technology will kind of dramatically accelerate creation itself, like creating things, building new things, can can improve and achieve things on its own, right, I think, like, puts it in a different league. Right? And so different league. And so I think the impact it'll end up having will far surpass everything we've seen before. Obviously, with that comes a lot of important things to think and wrestle with, but I definitely think that'll end up being the case.
尤其是当AI能在自身研究领域实现超人类表现时——这个开放性问题意味着,技术或许能实现自我迭代超越昨日版本。
Especially if it gets to the point of where we can achieve superhuman performance on the AI research itself. So So it's a technology that may that's an open question, but it may be able to achieve a level to where the technology itself can create itself better than it it could yesterday.
就像AlphaGo的
It's like the move 37 of alpha research or whatever it is. Right? Like, you know, when when when yeah. You're right. When when it can do novel self directed research, obviously, for a long time, we'll we'll have, hopefully, always humans in the loop and all that stuff, and these are complex questions to talk about.
第37手妙着。当AI能开展自主定向研究时——当然长期来看人类仍需参与监管——但底层技术的演进令人震撼。就像观看AlphaGo从零开始,一日之内突飞猛进;或是观察语言模型在不同训练阶段的输出演变,既令人振奋又略带不安。
But, yes, I think the underlying technology you know, I've said this. Like, if you watched seeing Alpha go, start from scratch, be clueless, and, like, become better through the course of a day, you know, like, you know, kind of, like, kind of, like, you know, really hits you when you see that happen. Even our, like, the v o three models, if you sample the models when they were, like, 30% done and 60% done and looked at what they were generating, and you kinda see how it all comes together, it's kind of like, I would say, it's kinda inspiring, a little bit unsettling, right, as a as a human. So all of that is true, I think.
工业革命和电力革命的有趣之处在于,就像新石器时代农业革命不仅仅是定居种植,还催生了整套技术体系。这些变革从来不是单一技术突破,而是引发层层涟漪效应。
Well, the interesting thing of the industrial revolution, electricity, like you mentioned, you can go back to the, again, the agriculture the first agriculture revolution. There's what's called the Neolithic package or the first agricultural revolution. It wasn't just that the nomads settled down and started planting food, but all this other kinds of technology was born from that, and it's included in this package. So it wasn't one piece of technology. It's there's these ripple effects, second and third order effects that happen.
从看似愚蠢的事物,比如愚蠢的陶器能储存液体和食物,到我们有些习以为常的社会等级和政治等级。于是,早期的政府形成了。因为事实证明,如果人类停止迁徙并有剩余食物,他们就会开始感到无聊,并发明出各种有趣的制度。接着贸易出现了,这被证明是极其深远的事物。正如我所说,政府意味着随之而来的第二、第三级效应,包括那个‘包裹’令人难以置信且可能极其复杂。
Everything from something silly, like silly, profound, like pottery that can store liquids and food, to something we kinda take for granted, but social hierarchies, and political hierarchy. So, like, early government was formed. Because it turns out if humans stop moving and have some surplus food, they start coming up with, they get bored, and they start coming up with interesting systems. And then trade emerges, which turns out to be a really profound thing. And like I said, government there I mean, there's just second and third order effects from that, including that package is incredible and probably extremely difficult.
如果你让游牧部落的人预测这些,那是不可能的。这很难预测。但话说回来,你认为在所谓的‘AI包裹’中,我们早期可能会看到哪些东西?
If if you ask one of the people in the nomadic tribes to predict that, it would be impossible. It's difficult to predict. But all that said, what do you think are some of the early things we might see in the, quote, unquote, AI package?
我的意思是,大部分可能我们今天还不知道,但就像,你知道,我们现在能切实开始看到的一件事是,显然,随着编码的进步,你已经有所体会。在脑海中将其转化为现实存在的事物会变得如此容易。那将成为‘包裹’的一部分。对吧?就像,它将赋予几乎全人类表达自我的能力。
I mean, most of it probably we don't know today, but, like, you know, the one thing which we can tangibly start seeing now is, you know, obviously, with the coding progress, you got a sense of it. It's gonna be so easy to imagine, like, in your head translating that into things that exist. That'll be part of the package. Right? Like, it's gonna empower almost all of humanity to kinda express themselves.
也许过去你可以用语言表达,但就像,你可以将事物构建成现实。对吧?你知道?也许今天还做不到完全。我们正处于‘氛围编码’的早期阶段。
Maybe in the past, you could have expressed with words, but, like, you could kinda build things into existence. Right? You know? Maybe not fully today. We are at the early stages of vibe coding.
你知道,我对人们用v o three在网上发布的东西感到惊讶。嗯。但这需要一些工作。对吧?你必须把一系列提示拼接起来,但这一切都会变得更好。
You know, I've been amazed at what people have put out online with v o three. Mhmm. But it takes a bit of work. Right? You have to stitch together a set of prompts, but all this is gonna get better.
我一直在想的是,这是它最糟糕的时候。对吧?在任何给定的时刻。
The thing I always think about, this is the worst it'll ever be. Right? Like, any given moment in time.
是的。这很有趣。你把它作为第一个想到的。那么,创造力的指数级增长?
Yeah. It's interesting. You went there as kind of a first thought. So the exponential increase of access to creativity?
软件创造。你是在创建一个程序,一个要与他人分享的内容,未来的游戏,所有这些,就像,变得无限可能。
Software creation. Are you creating a program, a piece of content for to be shared with others, games down the line, all of that, like, just becomes infinitely more possible.
嗯,我认为最重要的是它让这变得可及。它解锁了全球80亿人的认知能力。
Well, I think the big thing is that it makes it accessible. It unlocks the cognitive capabilities of the entire 8,000,000,000.
不。我同意。看。想想四十年前,也许在美国,只有五个人能做你正在做的事。嗯。
No. I agree. Look. Think about forty years ago, maybe in The US, there were five people who could do what you were doing. Mhmm.
比如,去做个采访。懂吗?但今天想想YouTube和其他平台,有多少人正在这么做?
Like, go do a interview. You know? And you know? But today, think about with YouTube and other other products, etcetera. Like, how many more people are doing it?
所以我认为这就是技术的力量。互联网催生了博客,让更多声音被听见。而AI时代,这个数字不会是几十万,而是数千万甚至上亿人,以更深刻的方式向世界输出内容。
So I think this is what technology does. Right? Like, when the Internet created blogs, you know, you heard from so many more people. So I think but but with AI, I think that number won't be in the few hundreds of thousands. It'll be tens of millions of people, maybe even a billion people, like, putting out things into the world in a a a deeper way.
这会彻底改变创意生态,让很多人不安。比如福克斯、MSNBC、CNN就非常担忧——难道随便一个穿西装的人都能做到?还有YouTube上成千上万的创作者?这让他们如坐针毡。
And I think it'll change the landscape of creativity, It makes a lot of people nervous. Like, for example, whatever, Fox, MSNBC, CNN are really nervous about this part. Like, you you mean this dude in a suit could just do this? And and you and YouTube and and and thousands of others, tens of thousands, millions of other creators can do the same kind of thing. That makes him nervous.
现在NoBook LM出品的播客,质量比我做过的任何节目都要高出5到10倍。
And now you you get a podcast from NoBook LM. It's about five to 10 times better than any podcast I've ever done.
才怪,不过...
Not true, but
虽然是玩笑,但可能成真。作为播客爱好者而非主持人,如果AI能做出顶级节目,我会立刻停更转当听众。
I'm joking at this time, but maybe not, and that changes. You have to evolve. Because I on the podcasting front, I'm a fan of podcasts much more than I am a fan of being a host or whatever. If there's great podcasts that are both AIs, I'll just stop doing this podcast. I'll listen to that podcast.
但你必须进化适应,这种变革让人惶恐,却也令人兴奋。
But you have to evolve, and you have to change, and that makes people really nervous, I think. But it's also really exciting future.
唯一要补充的是:就像国际象棋,没人会看Stockfish对弈AlphaGo,但卡尔森对古克什就精彩得多。未来我们会消费更多AI内容,但真正珍贵的体验仍将来自人性光芒——就像我们之前讨论梅西带球时的感动。
The only thing I may say is I do think, like, in a world in which there are two AI, I think people value and choose just like in chess, you and I would never watch Stockfish 10 or whatever and AlphaGo play against each like, it would be boring for us to watch. But Magnus Carlsen and Gukesh, that game would be much more fascinating to watch. So it's tough to say. Like, one way to say is you'll have a lot more content, and so you will be listening to AI generated content because sometimes it's efficient, etcetera. But the premium experiences you value might be a version of, like, the human essence wherever it comes through, going back to what we talked earlier about watching Messi dribble the ball.
也许某天机器带球胜过梅西,但能否唤起同等情感?这值得玩味。
I don't know. One day, I'm sure a machine will dribble much better than Messi, but I don't know whether it would evoke that same emotion in us. So I think that'll be fascinating to see.
播客和有声书的信息获取功能可能被AI取代,但人类消化信息时的挣扎、与情感意识的交融才更动人。想查史料就用Gemini,想看人类解读历史?那就来找我们。
I think the element of podcasting or audiobooks that is about information gathering Yeah. That part might be removed, or that might be more efficiently and in a compelling way done by AI. But then it'll be just nice to hear humans struggle with the information, contend with the information, try to internalize it, combine it with the complexity of our own emotions and consciousness and all that kind of stuff. But if you actually wanna find out about a a piece of history, you go to Gemini. If you wanna see Lex struggle with that history, then you look or other humans, you look you you look at that.
但关键在于它将改变——并持续改变我们探索信息、消费信息以及创造信息的方式本质。就像YouTube彻底颠覆了一切,改变了新闻业那样。这正是我们社会正在艰难应对的变化。
But that the point is it's going to change the nature, continue to change the nature of how we discover information, how we consume the information, how we create that information. The same way that YouTube changed everything completely, changed news. It and that's something our society is struggling with.
是啊。YouTube听着,YouTube赋能了——你比任何人都清楚——它让无数创作者得以发声。我毫不怀疑我们将赋能比以往更多的电影人。
Yeah. YouTube look. YouTube enabled, I mean, you know this better than anyone else. It's enabled so many creators. There is no doubt in me that, like, we will enable more filmmakers than than I've ever been.
对吧?你会让更多人获得创作力量。我认为这其中被低估的是扩张性的一面。这将以前所未有的方式释放人类创造力,虽然目前还难以完全理解。
Right? You're gonna empower a lot more people. So I think there's an expansionary aspect of this, which is underestimated, I think. I think it'll unleash human creativity in a way that hasn't been seen before. It's tough to internalize.
唯一能理解的方式就是——如果你把五十或四十年代的人突然放到YouTube面前,我敢说他们会震惊到失语。同样地,未来十到二十年的可能性也会让我们目瞪口呆。
The only way it is if you if you brought someone from the fifties or forties and just put them in front of YouTube, you know, I think it would blow their mind away. Similarly, I think we would get blown away by what's possible in a ten to twenty year time frame.
你认为未来多久——我们设定个时间点——优质内容中50%会由AI生成?比如VO四五六代?
Do you think there's a future? How many years out is it that let's say, let's put a mark on it, 50% of content in a comp good content. 50% of good content is generated by v o four, five, six.
这要看具体领域。就像现在电影中的CGI技术,既有擅用它的伟大导演,也有完全不用它的电影人——观众都各有所爱。
You know, I think it depends on what it is for. Like, you know, maybe if you look at movies today with CGI, there are great filmmakers. Like, you still look at, like, who the directors are and who use it. There are filmmakers who don't use it at all. You value that.
想象詹姆斯·卡梅隆这样的导演掌握这些工具会怎样。但未来会有更多内容创作者,就像如今作家用Google Docs写作时根本不会特意在意这个工具本身。
There are people who use it incredibly. You know, think about somebody like a James Cameron, like, what he would do with these tools in his hands. But I think there'll be a lot more content creator. Like, just like writers today use Google Docs and not think about the fact that they are using a tool like that. Like, people will be using the future versions of these things.
对他们来说这根本不是什么大不了的事。
Like, it won't be a big deal at all to them.
我有幸结识达伦·阿罗诺夫斯基。看他这样的天才——在AI技术尚未出现的年代就拍出《圆周率》这样的杰作,如今积极探索用AI创作震撼电影,这个过程非常有趣。
I've gotten a chance to get to know Darren Aronofsky. Well, he's been really leaning in and trying to figure it's it's fun to watch a genius who came up before any of this was even remotely possible. He created Pie, one of my favorite movies, and from there, just continued to create a really interesting variety of movies. And now he's trying to see how can AI be used to create compelling films. You have people like that.
还有像多尔兄弟这样AI原生的先锋派。阿罗诺夫斯基和多尔兄弟都在社会接受度的边缘创作,无论是性议题还是暴力元素——既保持艺术家的锋芒,又不失格调,始终把握着那条微妙的界限。
You have people who've gotta just know edgier folks that are AI first, like Dohr Brothers. Both Aronofsky and Dohr Brothers create at the edge of the Overton window of society. You know, they push whether it's sexuality or or violence. It's edgy, like artists are, but it's still classy. It doesn't cross that line, whatever that line is.
你知道,亨特·S·汤普森有句名言,要找到边界在哪里,唯一的方法就是越过它。我认为对艺术家来说确实如此,这某种程度上就是他们的使命。喜剧演员和艺术家就是要跨越那条界限。
You know, Hunter S. Thompson has this line that the the only way to find out where the edge, where the line is, is by crossing it. And I think for artists, that's true. That's kind of their purpose sometimes. Comedians and artists just cross that line.
我想知道你是否能评论下这让谷歌所处的微妙位置。因为谷歌的界限可能和这些艺术家不同。特别是关于Vio和Flow,你如何看待既要允许艺术家创作疯狂作品,又要承担不让作品过于疯狂的责任?
I wonder if you can comment on the weird place that puts Google. Because Google's line is probably different than some of these artists. What what's your how do you think about, specifically, Vio and Flow, about, like, how to allow artists to do crazy shit, but also, like, the responsibility of, like, not for it not to be too crazy.
这是个很好的问题。你看,你提到达伦的部分——他显然是个有远见的人,对吧?
I mean, it's a great question. Look. Part of you mentioned Darren. You know, he's a clear visionary. Right?
我们早期在Vio上与他合作的部分原因,正是因为他能预见未来并受其启发,为创意人士指明如何用它表达自我的道路。我认为允许艺术自由表达是我们社会最重要的价值观之一。
Part of the reason we work started working with him early on Vio is he's one of those people who's able to kinda see that future, get inspired by it, and kinda showing the way for how creative people Mhmm. Can express themselves with it. Look. I think when it comes to allowing artistic free expression, that is one of the most important values in our society. Right?
艺术家始终是推动边界、拓展思想前沿的人。所以这将成为我们坚持的重要价值观。我们会提供工具交给艺术家使用,那些API我几乎视作基础设施——就像供电给人们时,你不会预先限制它的用途。
I think, you know, artists have always been the ones to push push boundaries, expand the frontiers of thought. And so, look, I think I think that's going to be an important value we have. So I think we will provide tools and put it in the hands of artists for them to use and put out their work. Those APIs, I mean, I almost think of that as infrastructure. Just like when you provide electricity to people or something, you want them to use it, and, like, you're not thinking about the use cases on top of it.
所以这是支画笔。
So It's a paintbrush.
没错。显然需要有些底线,社会需要从根本上界定什么可行什么不可行。我们会负责任,但艺术自由表达确实是我们应该努力捍卫的价值观。
Yeah. And and so I think that's how, obviously, there have to be some things. And, you know, society needs to decide at a a fundamental level what's okay, what's not. We'll be responsible with it. But I do think, you know, when it comes to artistic free expression, I think that's one of those values we should work hard to defend.
能否谈谈早期Gemini版本在回答内容上较为谨慎?我惊喜地发现Gemini 2.5 Pro在这方面放松了很多——最近我研究成吉思汗和阿兹特克历史时,涉及大量暴力内容,早期版本总会问'你确定要了解这个吗?',而现在它能客观详实地探讨人类历史的黑暗篇章。
I wonder if you can comment on maybe earlier versions of Gemini were a little bit careful on the kinda things you would be willing to answer. I just wanna comment on I was really surprised and pleasantly surprised and enjoyed the fact that Gemini two five pro is a lot less careful in a good sense. Don't ask me why, but I've been doing a lot of research on Genghis Khan and the the Aztecs. So there's a lot of violence there in that history. It's a very violent history.
一战二战的研究也是如此。现在Gemini能以细致入微的视角讨论这些艰难历史,效果很好。但谷歌必须把握其中分寸,我想知道这种大规模处理各种奇怪查询的工程挑战——如何让Gemini既能说(请原谅我的用词)疯狂的话,又不至于太疯狂?
I've also been doing a lot of research on World War one and World War two. And earlier versions of Gemini were very basically, this kind of sense, are you sure you wanna learn about this? And now it's actually very factual, objective, talks about very difficult parts of human history, and does so with nuance and depth. It's it's been really nice. But there's a line there that I guess Google has to kinda walk.
能否具体谈谈这个挑战?在允许Gemini表达的同时,如何控制那个'疯狂度'的界限?
I wonder if it's and it's also an engineering challenge, how to how to do that at scale across all the weird queries that people ask. What can you just speak to that challenge? How do you allow Gemini to say again, forgive, pardon my French, crazy shit, but not too not not too crazy?
我认为这里的一个深刻见解是,随着模型能力不断提升,它们确实非常擅长处理这类问题。对吧?某种程度上,或许一年前这些模型还不够成熟,所以会频繁做出些愚蠢行为。当时我们试图处理那些边缘案例,但应对方式若有误,问题就会叠加。而2.5版本让我们特别发现,当模型跨越某个智能与复杂度的临界点后,它们就能很好地推理这些微妙问题。
I think one of the good insights here has been, as the models are getting more capable, the models are really good at this stuff. Right? And so I think in some ways, maybe a year ago, the models weren't fully there, so they would also do stupid things more often. And so, you know, you're trying to handle those edge cases, but then you make a mistake in how you handle those edge cases and it compounds. But I think with 2.5, what we particularly found is once the models cross a certain level of intelligence and sophistication, you know, they are they are able to reason through these nuanced issues pretty well.
我相信用户真正渴望这个。对吧?就像人们希望尽可能直接接触原始模型那样。但我觉得这是个值得深思的领域。
And I think users really want that. Right? Like, you know, you want as much access to the raw model as possible. Right? But I think it's a great area to think about.
长期来看,我们应该逐步开放更直接的访问权限。比如允许用户自定义提示词,让他们进行实验探索等等。这是个重要方向。但根本上,我们要以科学视角思考——我说的科学是指像对待数学或物理那样。从第一性原理出发,让模型从底层建立对世界的推理能力和细微理解,这才是正确的构建方式。
Like, you know, over time, you know, we should allow more and more closer access to it. Maybe obviously, let people custom prompts if they wanted to and, like, you know, and, you know, experiment with it, etcetera. I I think that's an important direction. But, look, the first principles we wanna think about it is, you know, from a scientific standpoint, like, making sure the models and I'm saying scientific in the sense of, like, how you would approach math or physics or something like that. From first principles, having the models reason about the world, be nuanced, etcetera, you know, from the ground up is the right way to build these things.
对吧?而不是让部分人类在上面硬编码规则。这就是我们坚持的发展方向,未来也会持续推动。
Right? Not like some subset of humans kinda hard coding things on top of it. So I think it's the direction we've been taking, and I think you'll see us continue to push in that direction.
没错。我其实做了个实验——把详细笔记交给Gemini,问它能否提出笔记之外的新问题。它的表现不断让我惊讶,真的出乎意料。
Yeah. I actually asked I gave these notes. I took extensive notes, and I gave them to Gemini and said, can you ask a novel question that's not in these notes? And it wrote Gemini continues to really surprise me. Really surprise me.
这太美妙了。这个模型令人惊叹。它生成的问题是:'桑达尔你向世界宣布Gemini每月处理480万亿token,在这座干草堆里藏着哪五个字能改变人生?'这就是Gemini式提问。
It's been really beautiful. It's an incredible model. The the question it's it it generated was you, meaning Sundar, told the world Gemini is churning out 480,000,000,000,000 tokens a month. What's the most life changing five word sentence hiding in that haystack? That's a Gemini question.
虽然你可能无法回答,但它让我意识到:每个token都在为全球用户提供微小瞬间。就像学习过程——人们因好奇提问,获得答案,这确实可能改变人生。
But it made it gave me a sense. I don't think you can answer that. But it gave me it may it woke me up to, like, all of these tokens are providing little moments for people across the globe. So that's like learning. That those tokens are people are curious, they ask a question, and they find something out, and it truly could be life changing.
确实如此。多年前我对搜索就有同样感受。这些月度token量在过去十二个月增长了50倍。
Oh, it is. I look. You know? I had the same feeling about search many, many years ago. You you know, you you definitely you know, these tokens per month has, like, grown 50 times in the last twelve months.
顺便确认下,这个数据准确吗?
Is that accurate, by the way,
本季度的?没错,数据准确。很高兴它答对了。
this quarter? Okay. Know, it is. It is accurate. I'm glad it got it right.
但要知道,十二个月前那个数字是每月9.7万亿个token。对吧?现在已经涨到了4.8美元。这是50倍的增长。人类的好奇心没有止境,我认为这是一个标志性时刻。
But, you know, that number was 9,700,000,000,000.0 tokens per month twelve months ago. Right? It's gone gone up to $4.80. You know, it's a 50 x increase. So there's no limit to human curiosity, and I think it's it's one of those moments.
或许今天还没达到,但未来某天可能会有一个五字短语揭示宇宙本质或类似意义深远的东西。不过我认为我们离那还有段距离。
Maybe I don't think it is there today, but maybe one day, there's a five word phrase which says what the actual universe is or something like that and something very meaningful, but I don't think we are quite there yet.
你认为扩展定律在AI预训练和后训练方面仍然坚挺吗?反过来说,你预计AI发展会遭遇瓶颈吗?是否存在这样的瓶颈?
Do you think the scaling laws are holding strong on There's a lot of ways to describe the scaling laws for AI, but on the pretraining and the post training fronts. So the flip side of that, do you anticipate AI progress will hit a wall? Is there a wall?
这是我们珍视的茶水间话题。偶尔我会和来访的Demis,或是Cora、Jeff、Noam、Sergei等团队成员坐下来讨论。我们看到的提升空间还很大。
You know, it's a cherished micro kitchen conversation. Once in a while, I have it, you know, like, when Demis is visiting or, you know, if Demis, Cora, Jeff, Noam, Sergei, a bunch of our people, like, you know, we sit and, you know, you know, talk about this. Right? And look. I we see a lot of headroom ahead.
我们在所有方面都实现了优化改进——预训练、后训练、测试计算、工具使用,并逐步增强代理性。比如VO3的物理理解能力就远超VO1版本。
Right? I think we've been able to optimize and improve on all fronts. Right? Pre training, post training, test time, compute, tool use, right, over time, making these more agentic. So getting these models to be more general world models in that direction like v o three, You know, the physics understanding is dramatically better than what v o one or something like that was.
从各个维度都能明显看到进步。更重要的是,我有幸与全球顶尖研究者共事,他们认为仍有巨大提升空间。
So you kind of see on all those dimensions. I I feel, you know, progress is very obvious to see. And I feel like there is significant headroom. More importantly, you know, I'm fortunate to work with some of the best researchers on the planet. Right?
因此未来发展令人振奋。虽然每年投入十倍算力时都会质疑能否取得进展,但当下我坚信来年将取得重大突破。
They think there is more headroom to be had here. And so I think we have an exciting trajectory ahead. It's tougher to say you know, each year, I sit and say, okay. We are gonna throw 10 x more compute over the course of next year at it, and, like, will we see progress? Sitting here today, I feel like the year ahead will have a lot of progress.
你是否感受到算力、数据或创意方面的限制?还是说所有领域都在全速前进?
And do you feel any limitations, like, or the bottlenecks, compute limited, data limited, idea limited? Do you feel any of those limitations, or is it full steam ahead on all fronts?
某种程度上受限于算力。这就是为什么我们推出Flash NanoFlash专业版而非终极版——每代产品能使专业版达到终极版90%性能,但终极版服务成本过高。我们的策略是让新一代专业版达到前代终极版水平。
I think it's compute limited in this sense. Right? Like, you know, we can all part of the reason you've seen us do flash NanoFlash in pro models, but not an ultra model. It's like for each generation, we feel like we've been able to get the pro model at, like, I don't know, 90% of ultra's capability, but ultra would be a a lot more, like, slow and lot more expensive to serve. But what we've been able to do is to go to the next generation and make the next generation's pro as good as the previous generation's Ultra Yeah.
同时确保其响应速度和使用便捷性。扩展定律确实有效,但用户最常使用的模型往往比我们能提供的最高性能落后几个月——因为后者难以保证速度和易用性。
But be able to serve it in a way that it's fast and you can use it and so on. So I do think scaling laws are working, but it's tough to get at any given time. The models we all use the most is maybe, like, a few months behind the maximum capability we can deliver. Right? Because that won't be the fastest, easiest to use, etcetera.
此外,就智能而言,衡量所谓的‘性能’变得越来越困难。因为,你知道,可以认为Gemini Flash由于延迟问题,其实际影响力可能远超Pro版本。它已经非常智能了。我的意思是,有时候延迟可能比智能更重要,特别是当Flash的智能只是稍逊一筹时。
Also, that's in terms of intelligence. It becomes harder and harder to measure performance, in quotes. Because, you know, you could argue Gemini Flash is much more impactful than Pro just because of the latency. It's super intelligent already. I mean, sometimes, like, latency is maybe more important than intelligence, especially when the intelligence is just a little bit less in Flash.
不,它仍然是一个极其聪明的模型。
Not it's still incredibly smart model.
是啊。
Yeah.
因此你现在必须开始衡量影响力,然后感觉基准测试越来越难以捕捉模型的智能、模型的有效性、实用性,以及模型在现实世界中的真正价值。另一个厨房问题。很多人都在讨论AGI(人工通用智能)或ASI(人工超级智能)的时间表。AGI大致定义是在人类主要追求领域中达到人类专家水平的能力,而ASI则是AGI通过自我改进迅速超越后的形态。
And so you you have to now start measuring impact, and then it feels like benchmarks are less and less capable of capturing the intelligence of models, the effectiveness of models, the usefulness, the real world usefulness of models. Another kitchen question. So lots of folks are talking about timelines for AGI or ASI, artificial superintelligence. So AGI, loosely defined, is basically human expert level at a lot of the main fields of pursuit for humans. And ASI is what AGI becomes presumably quickly by being able to self improve.
即在所有人类学科领域内智力远超人类。你认为我们何时能实现AGI?2030年有可能吗?
So becoming far superior in intelligence across all these disciplines in humans. When do you think we'll have AGI? Is 2030 a possibility?
还有另一个术语我们应该提一下。我不知道是谁最先使用的,可能是Karpathy提出的AJI。你听说过AJI吗?人工锯齿智能(Artificial Jagged Intelligence)。
There's one other term we should throw in there. I don't know who who used it first. Maybe Karpathy did AJI. Have you have you heard AJI? The artificial jagged intelligence.
有时候感觉确实如此,对吧?既有进步,你能看到它们能做什么,但又能轻易发现它们在数字字母识别或计算草莓中字母‘r’的数量这类简单问题上出错,似乎大多数模型都会被这类问题难倒。
Sometimes feels that way. Right? Both there are progress and you see what they can do. And then, like, you can trivially find they make numeric letters or, like, you know, counting r's in strawberry or something which seems to trip up most models or whatever it is. Right?
所以也许我们应该加入这个术语。我觉得我们正处于AJI阶段——进展显著但某些方面仍不完善,总体上看进步巨大。但如果你问2030年前能否实现AGI?听着,我们不断在重新定义AGI的标准。
So so maybe we should throw that term in there. I I feel like we are in the AJI phase where, like, dramatic progress, some things don't work well, but overall, you know, you're seeing lots of progress. But if your question is, will will it happen by 2030? Look. We constantly move the line of what it means to be AGI.
如今已有一些瞬间能瞥见它的影子,比如坐在旧金山街头的Waymo车里,看它穿梭于人群之中;或是通过Gemini Live提问‘我邻居这栋瘦长的建筑是什么?’结果发现那其实是路灯而非建筑。
There are moments today, you know, like sitting in a Waymo in a San Francisco street with all the crowds and the people and kinda work its way through. I see glimpses of it there. The car is sometimes kinda impatient, trying to work its way using Astra, like in Gemini Live or seeing you know, asking questions about the world. What's this skinny building doing in my neighborhood? It's a streetlight, not a building.
你会看到这些灵光一现,所以我使用AGI这个词——但同时你也清楚我们离真正的AGI还很远。这两种体验同时存在。我会回答你的问题,但也要说:我几乎觉得这个术语本身并不重要。
You you see glimpses. That's why I use the word AGI because then you see stuff which obviously, you know, we are far from AGI too. So you have both experiences simultaneously happening to you. I'll answer your question, but I'll also throw out this. I almost feel the term doesn't matter.
据我所知,到2030年将会有如此巨大的进步。我们将不得不应对这些进步带来的后果,无论是积极的溢出效应还是伴随而来的大规模负面溢出效应,到2030年2月时这些影响会非常显著。这是我深信不疑的。对吧?无论我们如何争论这个时间点,或许Gemini能回答2030年那个关键时刻是什么,但我认为进步将是戏剧性的。
What I know is by 2030, there'll be such dramatic progress. We'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positives both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 02/1930. So that I strongly feel. Right? Whatever we may be arguing about the term, or maybe Gemini can answer what that moment is in time in 2030, but I think the progress will be dramatic.
对吧?这是我坚信的。AI会认为它在2030年达到了通用人工智能吗?我认为我们会稍稍落后于这个时间线。对吧?
Right? So that I believe in. Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline. Right?
所以我认为这需要更长一点时间。令人惊叹的是,早在2010年Google DeepMind初期,他们就谈论过用二十年时间框架实现通用人工智能,现在看来这相当耐人寻味。但你知道,对我来说,整件事——看到Google Brain在2012年的成果,以及我们在2014年收购DeepMind时(就在2012年我们所在位置附近),Jeff Dean展示了神经网络能识别猫图片并加以确认的图像。对吧?这就是早期版本的大脑。对吧?
So I think it'll take a bit longer. It's amazing in the early days of Google DeepMind in 2010, they talked about a twenty year time frame to achieve AGI, so which is which is kind of fascinating to see. But, you know, I for me, the whole thing, seeing what Google Brain did in 2012 and when we acquired DeepMind in 2014, right close to where we are sitting in 2012, you know, Jeff Dean showed the image of when the neural networks could recognize a picture of a cat, right, and identify it. You know, this is the early versions of brain. Right?
因此,你知道,我们当时都谈论需要几十年。我不认为我们能在2030年前完全实现。所以我的感觉是略晚于那个时间点,但我要强调定义本身并不重要,因为你将在多个维度见证令人震撼的进步。也许AI能创作视频。作为社会,我们必须建立某种体系来共识这是AI生成内容,并以特定方式披露,否则如何区分现实?
And so, you know, we all talked about couple decades. I don't think we'll quite get there by 2030. So my sense is it's slightly after that, but I I would stress it doesn't matter, like, what that definition is because you will have mind blowing progress on many dimensions. Maybe AI can create videos. We have to figure out, as a society, how do we we need some system by which we all agree that this is AI generated, and we have to disclose it in a certain way because how do you distinguish reality otherwise?
是的。你提到的许多观点都很有趣。首先回顾Google Brain这段现在感觉遥远的历史——那是在TensorFlow公开发布开源之前。工具链也很重要,结合GitHub的代码共享能力。
Yeah. There's so many interesting things you said. So first of just looking back at this recent, now feels like distant history with Google Brain. I mean, that was before TensorFlow, before TensorFlow was made public and open sourced. So the tooling matters too, combined with GitHub ability to share code.
接着出现了注意力机制、Transformer和现在的扩散模型,未来可能还会出现某个事后看来简单却改变一切的新理念。那可能是训练后的推理时间创新。我记得Chad Cian发推说,谷歌距离完全赢得AI竞赛只差一个伟大的用户界面——意思是UI至关重要,就像Logan Cooper Patrick最近常讨论的那样。
Then you have the ideas of attention transformers and the diffusion now, and then there might be a new idea that seems simple in retrospect, but will change everything. And that could be the post training, the inference time innovations. And I think Chad Cian tweeted that Google is just one great UI from completely winning the AI race. Meaning, like, UI is a huge part of it. Like, how that intelligence I think Logan Cooper Patrick likes to talk about this right now.
它是个大语言模型,但何时会演变成我们讨论的交付系统而非单一模型?没错。系统如何自我展现、如何面向世界呈现也极其重要。
It's an LLM, but it become like, when is it gonna become a system where you're talking about shipping systems versus shipping a particular model? Yeah. That matters too, how the system is manifest itself and how it presents itself to the world. That really, really matters.
哦,极其重要。简单的UI创新曾改变世界。对吧?我完全认同这点。未来几年我们将看到更多进展,因为我认为AI本身正在UI领域进入自我改进轨道。
Oh, hugely so. There are simple UI innovations which have changed the world. Right? And I absolutely think so. We will see a lot more progress in the next couple of years as I think AI itself on a self improving track for UI itself.
就像现在,我们限制了模型能力。模型还无法完全通过UI向人类表达自己。但细想之下,是我们用这种方式框住了它们。既然这些模型能编程,它们理应能写出最佳交互界面来表达思想。
Like, you know, today Yes. We are, like, constraining the models. The models can't quite express themselves in terms of the UI too to people. But that is, like, you know, if you think about it, we've kind of boxed them in that way. But given these models can code, you know, they should be able to write the best interfaces to express their ideas
嗯。
Mhmm.
随着时间的推移。对吧?
Over time. Right?
这个想法太不可思议了。所以他们的API已经是开放的。你可以创建一个非常棒的代理系统,持续改进你与AI对话的方式。是的。但这需要很多
That is incredible idea. So their API is already open. So you you create a really nice agentic system that continuously improves the way you can be talking to an AI. Yeah. But it a lot
这些功能都体现在界面上,当然还有谷歌一直在推动的令人难以置信的多模态界面特性。这些模型天生就是多模态的。它们可以轻松接收任何格式的内容,并以任何格式输出。它们能设计出优秀的用户界面。随着时间的推移,它们可能会比你自己更了解你的偏好。
of that is in the interface, and then, of course, the incredible multimodal aspect of the interface that Google's been pushing. These models are natively multimodal. They can easily take content from any format, put it in any format. They can write a good user interface. They probably understand your preferences better that over time.
就像,你知道的,所以所有这些都像是未来的进化方向。对吧?这又回到了我们对话开始的地方。我觉得未来几年会有巨大的变革。
Like, you know and so so all this is, like, the evolution ahead. Right? And so that goes back to where we started the conversation. I felt like I think there'll be dramatic evolutions in the years ahead.
也许再问一个厨房问题。关于p(毁灭)这个更荒谬的概念。AI社区中那些哲学倾向的人会思考AGI以及ASI可能毁灭整个人类文明的概率。我认为我的p(毁灭)大约是10%。你有没有想过ASI带来的这种长期威胁?
Maybe one more kitchen question. This even further ridiculous concept of p doom. So the philosophically minded folks in the AI community think about the probability that AGI and then ASI might destroy all of human civilization. I would say my p doom is about 10%. Do you ever think about this kind of long term threat of ASI?
你的p(毁灭)会是多少呢?
And what would your PDOM be?
听着,我的意思是,当然想过。我一直对AI感到非常兴奋,但我也始终认为这项技术需要我们积极思考风险,并非常努力地引导它朝着好的方向发展。关于p(毁灭)的问题,你知道的,这可能会让你觉得不意外,这可能是另一个偶尔会在微型厨房讨论中出现的话题。
Look. I mean, for sure. Look. I've both been very excited about AI, but I've always felt this is a technology, you know, you have to actively think about the risks and work very, very hard to harness it in a way that it it all works out well. On the PDOM question, look, it's you know, it wouldn't surprise you to say that's probably another MicroKitchen conversation that pops up once in a while.
对吧?考虑到这项技术的强大,也许退一步说,当你运营一个大型组织时,如果你能某种程度上协调组织的激励机制,你几乎可以实现任何目标。对吧?就像,如果你能让所有人都朝着一个目标,以一种非常专注、使命驱动的方式前进,你几乎可以成就任何事情。但要以这种方式组织全人类是非常困难的。
Right? And given how powerful the technology is, maybe stepping back, you know, when you're running a large organization, if you can kinda align the incentives of the organization, you can achieve pretty much anything. Right? Like, you know, if you can get kinda people all marching in towards, like, a goal in a very focused way, in a mission driven way, you can pretty much achieve anything. But it's very tough to organize all of humanity that way.
但我认为,如果自由度足够高,在某个时刻,全人类会共同确保这种情况不会发生。对吧?因此,我认为我们实际上会在这方面取得更多进展。所以讽刺的是,这里存在一种自我调节的机制。我认为如果人类集体致力于解决一个问题,无论是什么问题,我认为我们都能做到。
But I think if freedom is actually high, at some point, all of humanity is, like, aligned in making sure that's not the case. Right? And so we'll actually make more progress against it, I think. So the irony is so there is a self modulating aspect there. Like, I think if humanity collectively puts their mind to solving a problem, whatever it is, I think we can get there.
正因为如此,你知道的,我我我我对p(毁灭)的情景持乐观态度,但这并不意味着我认为潜在风险实际上很低。但我对人类能够挺身而出应对那一刻充满信心。
So because of that, you know, I I I I think I'm optimistic on the PDOM scenarios, but that doesn't mean I think the underlying risk is actually pretty high. But I'm you know, I have a lot of faith in humanity kind of rising up to the to meet that moment.
说得非常非常到位。我的意思是,当威胁变得更具体、更真实时,人类确实会团结起来,把事情处理好。另外,我认为人们不常谈论的是没有AI时的毁灭概率。人类还有很多其他方式可以自我毁灭,而AI很可能会帮助我们变得更聪明、更友善、更高效。它将帮助世界上更多地区繁荣发展,减少资源限制,这往往是军事冲突和紧张局势的根源。
That's really, really well put. I mean, as the threat becomes more concrete and real, humans do really come together and get their shit together. Well, the other thing I think people don't often talk about is probability of doom without AI. So there's all these other ways that humans can destroy themselves, and it's very possible, at least I believe so, that AI will help us become smarter, kinder to each other, more efficient. It'll help more parts of the world flourish where it wouldn't be less resource constrained, which is often a source of military conflict and tensions and so on.
因此,我们还必须考虑没有AI时的毁灭概率是多少?有AI的毁灭概率和没有AI的毁灭概率。因为AI很可能是拯救我们、拯救人类文明免于其他威胁的关键。
So we also have to load into that what's the p doom without AI? With a p doom with AI and p doom without AI. Because it's very possible that AI will be the thing that saves us, saves human civilizations from all the other threats.
我同意你的观点。我觉得这很有见地。听着,我觉得要解决一些最棘手的问题,有AI的帮助会很好,比如Pear这样的助手,对吧?
I agree with you. I think I think it's insightful. Look. I felt, like, to make progress on some of the toughest problems would be good to have AI, like, Pear helping you. Right?
而且,你知道,这确实引起了我的共鸣。
And and, like, you know, so that resonates with me for sure.
是啊。稍等一下。去趟洗手间?
Yeah. Quick pause. Bathroom break?
我知道。好的,我们去吧。
I know. Alright. Let's do that.
如果Notebook LM能像我今天看到的Beam一样引人入胜,如果它也能有同样的吸引力
If Notebook LM was the same compel like, what I saw today with Beam, if it was compelling in the same kind of way
Beam怎么样?简直让我大开眼界。
How was Beam? Blew my mind.
太不可思议了。我没想到这居然可能。没想到
It was incredible. I didn't think it's possible. Didn't think
你能想象吗,比如美国总统和中国主席能像BEAM那样,他们的实时翻译运作良好?他们坐在一起交谈,就能取得更多进展。
Can you imagine, like, the US president and the Chinese president being able to do something like BEAM Mhmm. With their live meat translation working well? So they're both sitting and talking, make progress a bit more.
是的。跟听众说明一下,我们刚短暂休息去了洗手间,现在在讨论我做的演示。我们可能会以某种方式把它发布到某个地方,也许就在这里。我有机会体验了Beam,那种真实感真的很难用语言形容——仅仅用了六个摄像头,太不可思议了。
Yeah. Just for people listening, we took a quick bathroom break, and now we're talking about the demo I did. We'll probably post it somewhere, somehow, maybe here. The I got a chance to experience Beam, and it was it's hard to it's hard to describe in words how real it felt with just, what is it, six cameras. It's incredible.
这太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
这是最难描述的产品之一,即便我们用幻灯片展示等等,人们也不太能理解。就像,你无法真正知道它是什么。你必须亲身体验。
It's it's one of the toughest products of you can't quite describe it to people even when we show it in slides, etcetera. Like, you don't know what it is. You have to kind of experience it.
在世界领导人层面,在政治、地缘政治方面,有一种非常特别的东西。我们再次研究二战,如果张伯伦能亲自会见斯大林,能避免多少损失。有时候我也很难向人们解释清楚,为什么我认为世界领导人亲自会面如此重要。这听起来可能有点天真,但面对面确实有某种魔力。而通过Beam,我感受到了同样的东西,却无法用语言表达。
On the world leaders front, on politics, geopolitics, there there's something really special. Again, we're studying World War two and how much could have been saved if Chamberlain met Stalin in person. And I sometimes also struggle explaining to people, articulating why I believe meeting in person for world leaders is powerful. It just seems naive to say that, but there is something there in person. And with Beam, I I felt that same thing, and then I'm unable to explain.
我只能像个孩子一样不断重复:你看上去好真实。懂吗?我不知道这是否会让会议更高效,但它确实让会议更……就像你有时更想去办公室而不是远程工作的原因一样,那种人与人之间的联系。我说不清那到底是什么。
All I kept doing is what, like, a child does. You look real. You know? And, I mean, I don't know if that makes meetings more productive or so on, but it certainly makes them more the the same reason you wanna show up to work versus remote sometimes, that human connection. I don't know what that is.
很难用语言描述。伟大团队合作完成某件事时,有种超越团队效率或纸面数据的美妙之处。人生中最美好的时刻往往发生在工作中——与团队为同一个艰难目标奋斗数月,那种体验无与伦比。
It's hard to it's hard to put into words. There's some there's something beautiful about great teams collaborating on a thing that's that's not captured by the productivity of that team or by whatever on paper. Some of the most beautiful moments you experience in life is at work. Pursuing a difficult thing together for many months, there's nothing like it.
你们共同奋战,是的。这样确实会建立深厚的纽带,
You're in the trenches, and Yeah. You do form bonds that way,
确实如此。
for sure.
而能够远程实现那种亲临现场的体验,我不知道...这真是种深刻的满足感。我个人其实讨厌大多数会议——因为很多会议组织不当,缺乏明确目标。但这是会议管理的问题,不是沟通本身的问题。
And to be able to do that, like, somewhat remotely in that same personal touch, I don't know. That's a deeply fulfilling thing. I know a lot of people I I personally hate meetings because a significant percent of meetings when done poorly are are don't don't serve a clear purpose. So but that's a meeting problem. That's not a communication problem.
如果能提升那些必要会议的沟通质量,那就太棒了。所以,是的,我被背后精妙的工程技术震撼了。接下来我们就能看到它会产生什么影响,这非常有趣——但单就工程而言已经令人叹服,真的印象深刻。
If you could improve the communication for the meetings that are useful, that's just incredible. So, yeah, I was blown away by the great engineering behind it. And then we we get to see what impact that has. That's really interesting, but just incredible engineering. Really impressive.
不,确实如此。而且,我们会通过多年的努力让它变得越来越普及。但即便在个人生活层面,抛开工作会议不谈,想象一位祖母与远方的孙辈通过这种方式互动——虽然没有什么能替代面对面相见,但你知道,现实往往不允许。
No. It is. And, we'll work hard over the years to make it more and more accessible. But, yeah, even on a personal front, outside of work meetings, you know, a grandmother who's far away from our grandchild and being able to, you know, have that kind of an interaction, right, all of that, I think, will end up being very mean nothing substitutes being in person. You know, it's not always possible.
比如驻外士兵试图与家人联系的情景。正是这些需求在激励着我们前行。
You know, you could be a soldier deployed, try trying to talk to your loved ones. So I think, you know, so that's what inspires us.
去年我们散步时虽然没聊这个,但我记得当时看到大量分析师和专家的文章,声称桑达尔·皮查伊应该下台,因为舆论认为谷歌彻底输掉了AI竞赛,在这个快速演进的技术领域失去了魔力。而一年后的今天简直疯狂——你展示了过去一年发布的所有成果图表,Gemini Pro如今在多个基准测试和产品中领先,这太不可思议了。
When you and I hung out last year and took a walk, I remember I don't think we talked about this, but I remember, you know, outside of that, seeing dozens of articles written by analysts and experts and so on that Sundar Pichai should step down because the perception was that Google was definitively losing the AI race, has lost its magic touch in the rapidly evolving technological landscape. And now a year later, it's crazy. You showed this plot of all the things that were shipped over the past year. It's incredible. And Gemini Pro is winning across many benchmarks and products as we sit here today.
请谈谈这段经历:从铺天盖地指责'你不配领导谷歌''谷歌完蛋了'的舆论,到如今谷歌重夺领先地位。期间的低谷时刻有哪些?
So take me through that experience when there's all these articles saying, you're the wrong guy to lead Google through this. Google is lost. It's done. It's over to today where Google is winning again. What were some low points during that time?
说来话长。作为CEO,我最重要的战略就是确保公司以'AI优先'的方式推进所有事务,为负责任地开发通用人工智能奠定基础,同时确保我们推出的产品能切实造福用户。
Look. I I mean, lots to unpack. You know, obviously, like, main bet I made as a CEO was to really, you know, make sure the company was approaching everything in a AI first way, really, you know, setting ourselves up to develop AGI responsibly. Right? And and and make sure we are putting out products which which embodies that things that are very, very useful for people.
其实即便在去年最艰难的时刻,我对内部研发进展也心中有数。比如早已决策合并Brain和DeepMind团队成立Google DeepMind,又如十年前我们就决定投资TPU芯片——那时就知道要构建大规模模型。
So, look, I I knew even through moments like that last year, you know, I had a good sense of what we were building internally. Right? So I'd already made, you know, many important decisions, you know, bringing together teams of the caliber of brain and DeepMind and setting up Google DeepMind. There were things like we made the decision to invest in TPUs ten years ago. So we knew we were scaling up and building big models.
面对这种处境时,我有两个特质:擅长屏蔽噪音区分信号。你潜水吗?没有?
Anytime you're in a situation like that, a few aspects. I'm good at tuning out noise, right, separating signal from noise. Do you scuba dive? Like, have you No. No.
虽然技术不好,但我潜过几次。有时海面波涛汹涌,但只要下潜一英尺,就会进入全世界最宁静的空间——经营谷歌也是类似的道理。
You know, it's amazing. Like, I'm not good at it, but I've done it a few times. But but sometimes you jump in the ocean, it's so choppy. But you go down one feet under, it's the calmest thing in the entire universe. Right?
就像执教巴萨或皇马,赛季表现总有起伏。但关键在于,我始终专注于识别真正重要的信号。
So there's a version of that. Right? Like, you know, running Google, you know, you may as well be coaching Barcelona or Real Madrid. Right? Like, you know Yeah.
(笑)没错。我确实擅长过滤噪音,同时保持对关键信号的敏锐捕捉。
You have a bad season. So there are aspects to that. But, you know, like, look, I I'm good at tuning out the noise. I do watch out for signals. You know?
关键在于区分信号与噪音。外界有时会有优秀的人提出宝贵意见,你需要倾听并吸收这些反馈。但在内部,你要明白自己正在做一系列重大决策,对吧?
It's important to separate the signal from the noise. So there are good people sometimes making good points outside, so you wanna listen to it. You wanna take that feedback in. But, you know, internally, like, you know, you're making a set of consequential decisions. Right?
作为领导者,你会做很多决策。其中大多无关紧要——虽然起初感觉并非如此,但随着时间推移你会明白这点。日常决策多数并不重要,只是为了维持运转而做。
As leaders, you're making a lot of decisions. Many of them are, like, inconsequential. Like, it feels like but over time, you learn that. Most of the decisions you're making on a day to day basis doesn't matter. Like, you have to make them, and you're making them just to keep things moving.
但必须做出少数关键决策。我们当时组建了合适的团队和领导者,拥有世界级的研究人员,正在训练Gemini模型。
But you have to make a few consequential decisions. Right? And and we had set up the right teams, right leaders. We had world class researchers. We were training Gemini.
外界可能没意识到某些内部因素,比如TPU芯片虽强大,但我们需要时间扩大其规模。要获得足够算力,实际部署足够多的TPU需要过程。
Internally, there are factors which were, for example, outside people may not have appreciated. I mean, TPUs are amazing, but we had to ramp up TPUs too. That took time. Right? And and to scale, actually having enough TPUs to get the compute needed.
但我能清晰看到内部的发展轨迹。这个时刻让我无比兴奋——作为公司未来十年、二十年的重大机遇,其潜力远超过去成就。我认为我们的准备比全球大多数企业都更充分。
But I could see internally the trajectory we were on. And and be you know, I was so excited internally about the possible to me, this moment felt like one of the biggest opportunities ahead for us as a company, that the opportunity space ahead over the next decade, next twenty years is bigger than what has happened in the past. And I thought we were set up, like, better than most companies in the world to go realize that vision.
你们必须做出重大而果敢的决策,比如合并DeepMind和Brain团队。以我对人性的了解,这必然涉及多方自尊心,团队融合极其困难,肯定需要做出艰难抉择。
I mean, you had to make some consequential, bold decisions. Like, you mentioned the merger of DeepMind and Brain. Maybe it's my perspective, just knowing humans. I'm sure there's a lot of egos involved. It's very difficult to merge teams, and I'm sure there are some hard decisions to be made.
能否分享你的决策思考过程?如何最终拍板?其中有哪些痛苦点?又是如何化解的?
Can you take me through your process of how you think through that? Do you go to pull the trigger and make that decision? Maybe what were some painful points? How do you navigate those
动荡局面?我们很幸运拥有两支顶尖团队,但你说得对——这就像有人要求把斯坦福和MIT合并组建顶级院系,谈何容易?
turbulent waters? Look, we were fortunate to have two world class teams, but you're right. Like, it's like somebody coming and telling to you, take Stanford and MIT Right. And then put them together and create a great department. Right?
说起来容易做起来难。所幸我们拥有非凡的团队,双方各有所长但运作模式迥异。
And and easier said than done. But we are fortunate. You know, phenomenal teams. Both had their strengths, you know, but they were run very differently. Right?
Brain团队项目多元、自下而上,产出了许多重要突破;DeepMind当时对AGI发展有明确愿景。关键时刻,Jeff表达了回归科研本源的意愿——他认为管理工作占据太多时间。
Like, Brain was kind of a lot of diverse projects, bottoms up, and out of it came a lot of important research breakthroughs. DeepMind at the time had a strong vision of how you wanna build AGI, and so they were pursuing their direction. But I think through those moments, luckily tapping into you know, Jeff had expressed a desire to be more to go back to more of a scientific individual contributor roots. You know? He felt like management was taking up too much of his time.
而且,自然地,我认为德米斯当时在运营DeepMind,是那个位置的不二人选。但你说得对,我们确实花了一些时间让团队融合。要归功于德米斯、杰夫、科莱等优秀人才,他们竭尽全力在组建团队时融合双方的优势。
And and and Demis, naturally, I think, you know, was running DeepMind and was a natural choice there. But I think it was you're right. You know, it took us a while to bring the teams together. Credit to Demis, Jeff, Corai, all the great people there. They worked super hard to combine the best of both worlds when you set up that team.
整合过程中难免有些辗转反侧的夜晚。我们耐心推进以确保长期效果——对吧?当时局势变化很快,压力确实显而易见。
A few sleepless nights here and there as we put that thing together. We were patient in how we did it so that it works well for the long term. Right? And and some of that in that moment, I think, yes. With things moving fast, I think you definitely felt the pressure.
但这次过渡我们完成得很好。他们显然正在做惊人的工作,未来还会有更多突破。
But I think we pulled off that transition well. And, you know, I think I think, you know, they've obviously doing incredible work, and there's a lot more incredible things ahead coming from them.
就像我们讨论过的,你在并购期间和应对舆论时都保持着冷静克制的风度。有没有某个瞬间挫折感爆发过?比如不得不比平时更严厉地对待大家?
Like we talked about, you have a very calm, even tempered, respectful demeanor During that time, whether it's the merger or just dealing with the noise, didn't were there times where frustration boiled over? Like, did you have to go a bit more intense on everybody than you usually would?
可能吧。确实有过全力推进的时刻。但当你满怀激情投入工作时,难免会有分歧和争论——这都是高强度协作的常态。
Probably. You know, probably. You're right. I think I think in the sense that, you know, there was a moment where we were all driving hard. But when you're in the trenches working with passion, you're gonna have days, right, you disagree, you argue, but, like, all that, I mean, just part of the course of working intensely.
归根结底,我们做这些是因为被其影响力驱动。对很多人来说这是长期征程,激动人心的时刻远多于压力时刻——就像今年初,我连续两天庆祝杰夫·芬顿和德米斯、约翰·詹珀分别获得诺贝尔奖。
Right? And, you know, at the end of the day, all of us are doing what we are doing because the the impact it can have, we are motivated by it. It's like, you know, for many of us, this has been a long term journey, and so it's been super exciting. The positive moments far outweigh the kind of stressful moments. Just early this year, I had a chance to celebrate back to back over two days, like, you know, Nobel Prize for Jeff Fenton and the next day, a Nobel Prize for Demis and John Jumper.
与这样的人共事本身就充满激励。
You know, you worked with people like that. All that is super inspiring.
有没有需要你强势拍板的情况?比如必须表明'我是CEO,就这么执行'?
Is there something, like, with you where you had to, like, put your foot down maybe with less versus more, or, like, I'm the CEO, and we're may we're doing this.
就像之前说的关键决策——当人们激烈反对时,最终你需要明确决断并要求大家执行。可以保留意见,但必须承诺共同推进。
To my earlier point about consequential decisions you make, there are decisions you make. People can disagree pretty vehemently. And but at some point, like, you know, you make a clear decision, and you you just ask people to commit. Right? Like, you know, you can disagree, but it's time to disagree and commit so that we can get moving.
无论是强势决策还是其他方式,这都是必要过程。只要冷静坚定地做决定,时间会赢得尊重。我发现充分倾听各方意见后清晰决断,在会议中特别有效。
And whether it's put putting the foot down or, you know, like, you know, it's it's a natural part of what all of us have to do, and, you know, I think you can do that calmly and be very firm in the direction you're making the decision. And I think if you're clear, actually, people over time respect that. Right? Like, you know, if you can make decisions with clarity, I find it very effective in meetings where you're making such decisions to hear everyone out. I think it's important when you can to hear everyone out.
有时你听到的内容实际上会影响你的思考方式,你会与之共处并做出决定。有时你会有明确的信念,然后表态说,听着,这就是我的感受,这是我的信念,你基本上就是押注于此,然后继续前进。
Sometimes what you're hearing actually influences how you think about, and you're resting with it and making a decision. Sometimes you have a clear conviction, and you state, look. I I you know, this is how I feel, and, you know, this is my conviction, and you kinda place the bet, you move on.
有这样的重大决策吗?我直觉上认为合并就是那个重大决策。
Are there big decisions like that? I'm kind of intuitively assume the merger was the big one.
我认为那是个非常重要的决定,对公司来说是为了应对当下时刻。我们必须确保我们正在这么做并且做得好。那是个影响深远的决定。还有很多其他事情。我们建立了AI基础设施团队,真正去应对当下,扩大我们所需的计算能力,并真正将公司不同部门的团队聚集起来,推动前进。
I think that was a very important decision, you know, for for the company to to meet the moment. I think we had to make sure we were we were doing that and doing that well. I think that was a consequential decision. There were many other things. We set up AI infrastructure team, like, to really go meet the moment to scale up the compute we needed to and really brought teams from disparate parts of the company, kinda created it to to move forward.
你知道,让人们一起工作,无论是在伦敦与DeepMind,还是在我们称为Gradient Canopy的地方,也就是山景城Google DeepMind团队所在的地方。但我最喜欢的时刻之一是我每周多次步行到Gradient Canopy大楼,那里我们的顶尖研究人员正在研究模型。谢尔盖经常在那里。对吧?就是看看模型的最新进展,观察损失曲线。
You know, bringing people like, getting people to kinda work together physically, both in London with DeepMind and what we call gradient canopy, which is where the mountain view Google DeepMind teams are. But one of my favorite moments is I routinely walk multiple times per week to the Graining Canopy Building where our top researchers are working on the models. Sergei is often there amongst them. Right? Like, you know, just, you know, looking at, you know, getting an update on the models, seeing the loss curves.
所以所有这些,我认为让团队重新聚集在一起的那种文化能量,最终也发挥了很大作用。
So all that, I think that cultural part of getting the teams together back with that energy, I think, ended up playing a big role too.
那最近增加AI模式的决策呢?谷歌搜索可以说是互联网的门户页面。它是个传奇般的极简主义设计,只有十个蓝色链接。人们想到互联网时就会想到那个页面。现在你们开始改变它了。
What about the decision to recently add AI mode? So Google Search is the, as they say, the front page of the Internet. It's like a legendary minimalist thing with 10 blue links. Like, that's when people think Internet, they think that page. And now you're starting to mess with that.
所以AI模式是一个单独的标签,然后在搜索结果中整合AI,我肯定在会议上关于这个有过一些争论。
So the AI mode, which is a separate tab, and then integrating AI in the results, I'm sure there were some battles in meetings on that one.
听着,某种程度上,当移动时代到来时,人们想要更多问题的答案。所以我们一直在不断进化,但你说得对。现在这个时刻,因为底层技术变得更强大,这种进化是必要的。AI可以提供很多背景信息。
Look. You know, in some ways, when mobile came, you know, people wanted answers to more questions. So we've kind of constantly evolving it, but you're right. This moment, you know, that evolution because the underlying technology is becoming much more capable. You know, you can have AI give a lot of context.
对吧?但我们重要的设计目标之一是,当你使用谷歌搜索时,你会得到很多背景信息,但你也会在网络上发现很多东西。这在AI模式和AI概览中都是如此。在我们之前的对话中,我们仍然提供链接访问,但可以把AI看作是一个提供背景和摘要的层次。在AI模式下,你甚至可以与它进行对话。
You know? But one of our important design goals, though, is when you come to Google search, you're going to get a lot of context, but you're gonna go and find a lot of things out on the web. So that will be true in AI mode, in AI overviews, and so on. Prior to our earlier conversation, we are still giving you access to links, but think of the AI as a layer which is giving you context, summary. Maybe in AI mode, you can have a dialogue with it back and forth Mhmm.
在你的探索过程中。对吧?但通过这一切,你正在了解世界上有什么。所以这些核心原则不会改变,但我认为AI模式让我们能够在那里部署我们最好的模型。对吧?
On your journey. Right? And but through it all, you're kind of learning what's out there in the world. So those core principles don't change, but I think AI mode allows us to push the we have our best models there. Right?
那些将搜索作为深度工具使用的模型,实际上,对于你提出的每个查询,都会进行某种扩散,执行多次搜索,以某种方式整合这些知识,让你能够去获取你想要的内容。对吧?这这就是我们的思考方式。
Models which are using search as a deep tool, really, for every query you're asking, kind of fanning out, doing multiple searches, like, kind of assembling that knowledge in a way so you can go and consume what you want to. Right? And and and that's how we think about it.
我刚听了一大堆伊丽莎白·莉兹·里德的讲解。描述一下这个。你提到的两点让我印象深刻。一是你谈到的查询扩散,我之前甚至没想过这一点,就是将网络上大量内容整合到一个地方供你使用的强大功能。是的,它提供了这样的上下文,让你可以决定接下来访问哪个页面。
I gotta just listen to a bunch of Elizabeth Liz Reid Yeah. Describe this. Two things stood out to me that you mentioned. One thing is what you were talking about is the query fan out, which I didn't even think about before, is the the the powerful aspect of integrating a bunch of stuff on the web for you in one place. So, yes, it provides that context so that you can decide which page to then go on to.
另一个真正重要的事情,与我们之前讨论的生产力倍增有关,她提到的是语言。所以有一点你可能不太理解的是,通过AI模式,对于非英语用户来说,你在推理过程中可以让英语网站变得可访问,就像你在试图弄清楚自己在寻找什么一样。当然,一旦你进入一个页面,可以使用基本的翻译功能。但是那个理解的过程,如果你能共情世界上大部分不说英语的人,他们的网络在原语言中要小得多。
The other really, really big thing speaks to the earlier in terms of productivity multiply that we're talking about that she mentioned was language. So one of the things you don't quite understand is it through AI mode, you make for non English speakers, you make sort of, let's say, English language websites accessible by in the reasoning process as you try to figure out what you're looking for. Of course, once you show up to a page, can use a basic translate. Yeah. But that process of figuring it out, if you empathize with a large part of the world that doesn't speak English, their, like, web, is much smaller in that original language.
因此,它再次释放了那里巨大的认知能力。我们在这里,有所有博主和记者在写关于AI模式的文章,你可能觉得理所当然。但你忘记了,现在因为Gemini在翻译方面非常出色,这解锁了新的可能。
And so it unlocks, again, unlocks that huge cognitive capacity there. They we don't you know, you take for granted here with all the bloggers and the journalists writing about AI mode. You forget that this now unlocks because Gemini is really good at translation.
不,确实如此。我是说,多模态、翻译、它的推理能力,我们正在显著提升工具的使用。就像,我把这种力量融入到搜索流程中,我觉得... 看,我对AI概览超级兴奋。
No. It is. I mean, the multimodality, the translation, its ability to reason, we are dramatically improving tool use. Like, I as of putting that power in the flow of search, I I think look. I'm I'm super excited with AI overviews.
我们已经看到产品变得好多了。我们现在用各种用户指标来衡量它。显然它推动了产品的强劲增长。而且,你知道,我们一直在测试AI模式。现在已经有数百万人在使用它,早期的数据非常令人鼓舞。
We've we've seen the product has gotten much better. We now we measure it using all kinds of user metrics. It's obviously driven strong growth of the product. And, you know, we've been testing AI mode. You know, it's now in the hands of millions of people, and the early metrics are very encouraging.
所以,看,我对搜索的下一章感到兴奋。
So, look, I I I'm excited about this next chapter chapter of search.
对于那些没有考虑到或意识到这一点的人。所以有10个蓝色链接,顶部是AI概览,提供了一个很好的总结。你可以展开它。你有来源和链接。
For people who are not thinking through or aware of this. So there's the 10 blue links with the AI overview on top that provides a nice summarization. You could expand it. And you have sources and links Links.
现在,是的。嵌入式的。是的。我相信,至少莉兹...
Now Yep. Embedded. Yeah. I believe, at least Liz
是这么说的,我其实没注意到,但AI概览里也有广告。我不认为AI模式里有广告。AI模式里有广告吗?所以,你觉得什么时候... 我是说,没关系。
said so, I actually didn't notice it, but there's ads in the AI overview also. I don't think there's ads in AI mode. When ads in AI mode? So when when do you think? I mean, it's okay.
可以说在九十年代,我记得那些动态GIF广告横幅,点击后会跳转到一些与内容毫不相关的可疑网站。AdSense彻底改变了广告业,它是近代最伟大的发明之一,因为它让我们能免费使用各种服务。广告支撑了许多强大服务的运转。在最佳状态下,它不仅能展示相关广告,更重要的是以一种不会过度打扰用户的方式呈现。
We should say that in the nineties, I remember the animated GIFs, banner GIFs that take you to some shady websites that have nothing to do with anything. AdSense revolutionized advertisement. It's one of the greatest inventions in in recent history because it allows us for free to have access to all these kinds of services. So ads fuel a lot of really powerful services. And at its best, it's showing you relevant ads, but also very importantly, in a way that's not super annoying.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧?要以优雅的方式。那么你认为何时能在AI模式中加入广告?从优雅不扰民的角度来看,这会是什么样子?
Right? In a classy way. So when do you think it's possible to add ads into AI mode, and what does that look like from a classy, non annoying perspective?
两点。AI模式初期,我们显然会更关注原生体验以确保正确性。广告的根本价值在于它能让数十亿人获得服务。其次,我们始终严肃对待广告是因为将其视为商业信息——但它仍是信息。因此我们对其采用相同的质量标准。
Two things. Early part of AI mode, we'll obviously focus more on the organic experience to make sure we are getting it right. I think the fundamental value of ads are it enables access to deploy the services to billions of people. Second is ads are the reason we've always taken ads seriously is we view ads as commercial information, but it's still information. And so we bring the same quality metrics to it.
结合之前关于AI的讨论,我认为AI本身将帮助我们逐步探索最佳实现方式。由于我们提供了上下文支持,这将创造更多解释空间——比如'这是商业信息'。就像现在播客主会在特定节点插入广告,并摸索最适合的方式。这些经验都可供借鉴。
I think with AI mode, to our earlier conversation about I think AI itself will help us, over time, figure out, you know, the best way to do it. I I think given we are giving context around everything, we I think it'll give us more opportunities to also explain, okay. Here's some commercial information. Like, today, as a podcaster, you do it at certain spots, and you probably figure out what's best in your podcast. I I think so there are aspects of that.
但用户对商业信息的需求本质不变,企业连接用户的诉求在AI时代依然存在。不过我们会重新思考形式——就像YouTube现在采用订阅与广告混合模式。随着我们全面推出订阅服务,最优点位也会相应变化。
But I think, you know, I think the underlying need of people value commercial information, businesses are trying to connect to users, all that doesn't change in an AI moment. But, look, we will rethink it. You've seen us in YouTube now do a mixture of subscription and ads. Like, obviously, you know, we we are now introducing subscription offerings across everything. And so as part of that, we can opt the optimization point will end up being a different place as well.
你认为未来AI模式会完全取代'十大蓝链+AI概览'模式吗?
Do you see a trajectory in the possible future where AI mode completely replaces the TenBlue Links plus AI overview?
当前计划是将AI模式设为独立标签页供深度体验,但尚未达到主搜索页的成熟度。随着功能完善,我们会逐步迁移至主页。可以视作一个连续进程:AI模式提供前沿体验,而验证有效的功能将溢出到主搜索的AI概览中。
Our current plan is AI mode is going to be there as a separate tab for people who really wanna experience that, but it's not yet at the level where our main search page is. But as features work, we'll keep migrating it to the main page. And so you can view it as a continuum. AI model will offer you the bleeding edge experience, but it'll things that work will keep overflowing to AI overviews in the main main experience.
也就是说AI模式仍会引导用户访问人类创建的网页。
And the idea that AI mode will still take you to the web, to the human created web.
是的。这将是我们核心的设计原则。
Yes. That's gonna be a core design principle for us.
所以实际上,如果用户做出决定,没错,是他们主导这一切。
So really, if users decide, right, they drive this.
是啊。
Yeah.
这既令人兴奋,又有点让人担忧它可能改变互联网。因为谷歌一直以特定的外观和理念主导着互联网的定义。而随着转向AI模式,这完全是另一种体验。我记得莉兹提到过,你们说过现在人们会提出更多问题,更长的问题。
It's just exciting, a little bit scary that it might change the Internet. Because you Google has been dominating with a very specific look and idea of what it means to have the Internet. And to as you move to AI mode, I mean, I it's just a different experience. I think Liz was talking about I think you've mentioned that you ask more questions, you ask longer questions.
完全不同的提问类型。
Dramatically different types of questions.
没错。它实际上激发了好奇心。就我个人而言,我一直在向这个黑箱机器——不管它到底是什么——提出更多问题。AI概览功能很有趣,因为我仍然重视人类创造的内容,最终我还是想回到人类创建的网页上。
Yeah. Like, it actually fuels curiosity. Like, I think it's for me, I've been asking just a much larger number of questions of this black box machine, let's say, whatever it is. And and with AI overview, it's interesting because I still value the human I still ultimately wanna end up on the human created web.
但就像你说的,上下文确实有帮助。它能让我们提供更高质量的推荐。明白吗?这样人们找到所需内容的几率就大得多。他们是在探索。
But I like you said, the context really helps. It helps us deliver higher quality referrals. Right? You know, where people are like, they have much higher likelihood of finding what they're looking for. They're exploring.
他们充满好奇。他们的需求得到更好的满足。我们所有的数据指标都显示了这一点。
They're curious. Their intent is getting satisfied more. So all that's what all our metrics show.
这让创建网络内容的人类感到紧张。记者们已经够紧张了——就像我们提到的,CNN因为播客而紧张。这让人感到不安。
It makes the humans that create the web nervous. The journalists are getting they've already been nervous. Like we mentioned, CNN is nervous because of podcasts. It makes people nervous.
听着,我认为新闻和 journalism 在未来仍将扮演重要角色。我们对此非常重视。明白吗?事实上,我认为随着时间的推移,我们公司能因此形成差异化优势。
Look. I I I think news and journalism will play an important role, you know, in the future. We're pretty committed to it. Right? And so I think making sure that ecosystem in fact, I think we'll be able to differentiate ourselves as a company over time because of our commitment there.
所以这是...这是我认为非常有价值的事情。在设计过程中,我们会继续优先考虑这些方法。
So it's it's it's something I think, you know, I definitely value a lot. And and as we are designing, we'll continue prioritizing approaches.
我相信对于那些有需求的人来说,他们可以拥有一个经过精细调校的AI模型,专门生产吸引眼球的争议性内容,这将取代现有的新闻业。这是对新闻业的一记重击。请原谅我这么说。但我发现,如果你在寻找对事物的强烈批评,Gemini非常擅长提供这类内容。哦,绝对如此。
I'm sure for the people who want, they can have a fine tuned AI model that's clickbait hit pieces that will replace current journalism. That's a shot at journalism. Forgive me. But I I find that if you're looking for really strong criticism of things, that Gemini is very good at providing that. Oh, absolutely.
目前它比任何人类作品都强。人们担心随着AI系统越来越强大,赞助商会介入并试图控制AI模型的输出,从而引入偏见。但就目前而言,AI提供的客观批评远胜于传统新闻。当然,有人会争辩说记者仍有价值。但说实话,我们在开放互联网上获得的众包新闻同样极具影响力。
It's better than anything they for now, I mean, people are concerned that there would be bias that's introduced, that as the AI systems become more and more powerful, there's incentive from sponsors to roll in and try to control the output of the AI models. But for now, the objective criticism that's provided is way better than journalism. Of course, the argument is the journalists are still valuable. But then, I don't know, the crowdsourced journalism that we get on the open Internet is also very, very powerful.
我认为这些都极其重要。获得大量众包信息固然是好事,但高质量新闻确实有其不可替代的价值,对吧?而且我觉得这些是相辅相成的。这就是我的看法。
I feel like they're all super important things. I think it's good that you get a lot of crowdsourced information coming in, but I feel like there is real value for high quality journalism. Right? And and I think these are all complementary. I think, like, I view this.
我自己也经常主动寻找关于事物的客观报道。有时你从网上阅读的众筹来源中能获得更多背景信息,但我认为两者最终都扮演着极其重要的角色。
I find myself constantly seeking out also, like, try to find objective reporting on on things too. And and sometimes you get more context from the crowdfunded sources you read online, but I think both end up playing a super important role.
所以你之前稍微提到过这个问题。Demis也讨论过。这有点像网络中将越来越专注于为智能体提供信息的那部分。我们可以将其视为网络的两个层次:一个服务于人类。
So there's you've spoken a little about about this. Demis talked about this. It's sort of the the slice of the web that will increasingly become about providing information for agents. So we can think about it as, like, two layers of the web. One is for humans.
另一个服务于智能体。你认为AI智能体专属的网络会随时间发展壮大吗?你认为未来五到十年,那些为人类消费而创建的、由人类创作的内容还会保持长期价值吗?还是说最终一切都会属于智能体?就像现在...
One is for agents. Do you see the AI agents? Do do you see the one that's for AI agents growing over time? Do you see there still being long term five, ten years value for the human created human created for the purpose of human consumption web, or will it all be agents in the end? Today, like,
并非所有人都这样,但你知道,去大型零售店逛通道、享受购物乐趣,或者在杂货店挑选食物等等。我们同时也进行网购,享受配送服务对吧?所以两者是互补的,餐馆等行业也是如此。因此我认为随着时间的推移,面向人类的网站也会变得更好。
not everyone does, but, you know, you you go to a you go to a big retail store, you love walking the aisle, you love shopping, or grocery store, picking out food, etcetera. We're also online shopping, and they're delivering. Right? So both are complementary, and, like, that's true for restaurants, etcetera. So I do feel like over time, websites will also get better for humans.
它们的设计会更精良,AI可能会为人类设计出更好的界面。所以我预期网络会变得更加丰富、有趣且易用。与此同时,我认为会出现一个智能体主导的网络,这方面也在取得很大进展。当然需要解决商业价值和激励机制问题,让人们愿意参与其中。
They will be better designed. AI might actually design them better for humans. So I I expect the web to get a lot richer and more interesting and better to use. At the same time, I think there'll be an agentic web, which is also making a lot of progress. And you have to solve the business value and the incentives to make that work well, right, like, for people to participate in it.
但我认为两者将共存。显然,智能体可能不需要——确切地说是不需要——与人类相同的设计和交互范式。但我认为两者都将持续存在。
But I think both will coexist. And, obviously, the agents may not need the same I mean, not may not. They won't need the same design and the UI paradigms which humans need to interact with. But I think both will both will be there.
我必须问问你对Chrome的看法。就我个人而言,Google Chrome可能是——我不确定该怎么排名。但在这个诱惑下(虽然可能带点近因偏差),我认为它确实名列前茅。
I have to ask you about Chrome. I have to say, for me personally, Google Chrome was probably I don't know. I I would like to see where I would rank it. But in this temptation and this is not a recency bias, although it might be a little bit. But I think it's up there.
对我而言,它可能是史上排名前三、甚至首屈一指的软件。这太不可思议了,真的令人惊叹。浏览器是我们通往网络的窗口,而Chrome多年来持续领先,甚至在初期当行业停滞时就推动了创新前沿,至今仍在不断挑战极限。它持续提升性能表现,极致高效,并保持不断创新,还有其Chromium的核心特质。
Top three, maybe the number one piece of software for me of all time. This is incredible. It's really incredible. The browser is our window to the web, and Chrome really continued for many years, but even initially to push the innovation on that front when it was stale, and it continues to challenge. It continues to make it more performant, so efficient, and just innovate constantly, and the the the Chromium aspect of it.
总之,当Chrome还是个疯狂想法时,你是推动它的先驱之一——这个想法可能曾饱受批评与质疑。能否讲讲推动Chrome背后的故事?你当时的愿景是什么?
Anyway, you were one of the pioneers of Chrome pushing for it when it was an insane idea, probably one of the ideas that was criticized and doubted and so on. So can you tell me the story of what it took to push for Chrome? What was your vision?
要知道,那是个充满变革的时代。大约2004年末到2005年,随着Ajax技术出现,网络突然变得动态化。短短几个月内,Flickr、Gmail、谷歌地图相继问世。原本简单的文本网页和基础HTML,正演变成丰富的动态应用。
Look. It was such a dynamic time, you know, around 02/2004, 2005 with Ajax, the web suddenly becoming dynamic. In a matter of few months, Flickr, Gmail, Google Maps, all kinda came into existence. Right? Like, the fact that you have an interactive dynamic web, the web was evolving from simple text pages, simple HTML to rich dynamic applications.
但与此同时,你能看出浏览器本不是为那个时代设计的。JavaScript运行极其缓慢,浏览器远未达到成为现代丰富网络的操作系统的标准——而这正是我们看到的机遇。
But at the same time, you could see the browser was never meant for that world. Right? Like, JavaScript execution was super slow. You know, the browser was far away from being an operating system for that rich modern web, which is coming into coming into place. So that's the opportunity we saw.
我们组建了杰出的初创团队。至今记得WebKit内核首次运行时的惊人速度。我们怀揣明确的愿景:将操作系统核心原理引入浏览器。
Like, you know, it's an amazing early team. I still remember the day we got a shell on WebKit running and how fast it was. You know, we had a clear vision for building a browser. Like, we wanted to bring core OS principles into the browser. Right?
于是我们构建了安全的浏览器沙箱,每个标签页独立运行——这些现在司空见惯,但当时非常超前。我们在丹麦奥胡斯发现了一支杰出团队,其领导者开发了V8 JavaScript引擎
Like, so we built a secure browser sandbox. Each tab was its own not these things are common now, but at the time, like, it was pretty unique. We found an amazing team in Aarhus, Denmark with a leader who built a v eight, the JavaScript VM
嗯。
Mhmm.
其速度是当时其他引擎的25倍。顺便说,我们将其全部开源并整合进Chromium。我们坚信网络体验可以更流畅、更安全。命名为'Chrome'正是因为当时浏览器界面日益臃肿——我们决心做减法。
Which at the time was 25 times faster than any other JavaScript VM out there. And by the way, you're right. We open sourced it all and, you know, and put it in Chromium too. But we really thought the web could work much better, you know, much faster, and you could be much safer browsing the web. And the name Chrome came was because we literally felt people were like, the the the the Chrome of the browser was getting clunkier.
这就是项目的起源。虽然我现在谈论Chrome难免带有偏爱,但这是我经历过最棒的产品从零打造过程,团队里有我的联合创始人等杰出伙伴,留下了珍贵回忆。
We wanted to minimize it. And so that was the origins of the project. Definitely, obviously, highly biased person here talking about Chrome. But, you know, it's the most fun I've had building a product from the ground up, and, you know, it it was an extraordinary team. Had my cofounders in the project, like, terrific, so definite fond memories.
对不了解背景的观众说——桑达尔,可以说没有你就没有Chrome。当然背后有许多杰出工程师,但在公司内部推动这个看似疯狂的想法(众所周知开发浏览器极其困难)需要莫大勇气。
So for people who don't know, Sundar, I mean, it is probably fair to say that you're the reason we have Chrome. Yes. I know there's a lot of incredible engineers, but pushing for it inside a company that probably was opposing it because it's a crazy idea. Because as everybody probably knows, it's incredibly difficult to build a browser.
是的。你看,当时埃里克是CEO。我觉得与其说他应该做什么,不如说是他第一次真正意识到开发浏览器这件事有多疯狂。
Yeah. Look. I Eric was the CEO at that time. I think it it was less that he was supposed to. He kinda first time knew what a crazy thing it is to go build a browser.
所以他显然觉得,你知道,真正想开发浏览器确实有疯狂的一面。但他非常支持。所有创始人都是这样,一旦我们开始构建产品并实际使用,看到它变得多好之后,大家就真正投入改进产品,进展非常迅速。
And so he definitely was like, this is you know, there was a crazy aspect to actually wanting to go build a browser. But he was very supportive. You know, everyone, the founders, were I think once we started, you know, building something and we could use it and see how much better, from then on, like, you know, you're you're really tinkering with the product and making it better, it came to life pretty fast.
你从中汲取了什么智慧?关于早期坚持一个最终具有革命性的疯狂想法?对未来类似的疯狂想法有什么建议?
What wisdom do you draw from that? From pushing through on a crazy idea in the early days that ends up being revolutionary? What for future crazy ideas like it?
拉里和谢尔盖对此有清晰阐述。我很早就内化了这个理念:从事登月般的宏伟项目时,首先能吸引最优秀的人才,这是天然优势;其次由于目标过于宏大,几乎没有竞争者涉足相同领域。
I mean, this this is something Larry and Sergei articulated clearly. I really internalized this early on, which is, you know, their whole feeling around working on moonshots, like, as a way when you work on something very ambitious, first of all, it attracts the best people. Right? So that's an advantage you get. Number two, because it's so ambitious, you don't have others working on something crazy.
这样你们就独占赛道。就像自动驾驶领域那样。第三,即使最终只完成目标的80%,也已经是巨大成功。这就是我给人们的建议。
So you pretty much have the path to yourselves. Right? It's like way more on self driving. Number three, it is even if you end up quite not accomplishing what you set out to do and you end up doing 80% of it, you'll end up being a terrific success. So so, you know, that's the advice I would give people.
对吧?追求宏大构想具有所有这些优势。虽然风险高,但人们往往没有充分认识到这些优势。
Right? I think, like, you know, it's just aiming for big ideas. It has all these advantages. And and it's risky, but it also has all these advantages, which people I don't think fully internalize.
你提到最疯狂的登月项目之一Waymo。十多年前我第一次看到Waymo自动驾驶汽车时,那是我对机器人技术的顿悟时刻,让我更加热爱这个领域,看到了未来图景。我真心感激这个项目及其象征意义。
I mean, you mentioned one of the craziest, biggest moonshots, which is Waymo. It's one of when I first saw over a decade ago a Waymo vehicle, Google self driving car vehicle, it was it was for me, it was an moment for robotics. It made me fall in love with robotics even more than before. It gave me a glimpse into the future, so it's incredible. I'm truly grateful for that project, for what it symbolizes.
但这同样是个疯狂计划。正如你提到的潜水比喻,Waymo长期不理会外界噪音,专注提升系统性能,扩大运营范围。首先祝贺达成1000万次付费自动驾驶里程。你从Waymo项目中学到了哪些关于坚持的启示?
But it's also a crazy moonshot. It's for for a long time, Waymo has been just like you mentioned with scuba diving, just not listening to anybody, just calmly improving the system better and better, more testing, just expanding the operational domain more and more. First of congrats on 10,000,000 paid robotaxi rides. What lessons do you take from Waymo about, like, the the the perseverance, the persistence on that project?
我为Waymo取得的进展深感自豪。我们始终坚信最后20%的难度——常说前80%容易,最后20%要花80%时间。我们清楚Waymo正处于这个阶段,但早有心理准备。
I look really proud of the progress we have had with Waymo. One of the things I think we were very committed to, you know, the final 20% can look like I mean, we always say, right, the first 80% is easy. The final 20% takes 80% of the time. I think we definitely were were working through that phase with Waymo, but I was aware of that. So but, you know, we knew we were at that stage.
尽管存在许多自动驾驶公司,我们深知技术差距所在。实际上,就在外界质疑Waymo时,我们反而决定加大投入。这看似反直觉,但谷歌本质是深度技术公司,Waymo正是打造优秀AI机器人的实践。
We knew we were the technology gap between while there were many people many other self driving companies, we knew the technology gap was there. In fact, at right at the moment when others were doubting Waymo is when, I don't know, made the decision to invest more in Waymo. Right? Because so so in some ways, it's it's counterintuitive. But I think, look, we've always been a deep technology company and, like, you know, Waymo is a version of kinda building a AI robot that works well.
因此我们被这类问题所吸引,那里的团队水平,你知道的,是现象级的团队。我知道你非常密切关注这个领域。我在和一个深谙此道的人交谈。但很明显它会成功。当然,还有更多工作要做。
And so we get attracted to problems like that, the caliber of the teams there, you know, phenomenal teams. And so I know you follow the space super closely. You know, I'm talking to someone who knows the space well. But it was very obvious it's gonna get there. And, you know, there's still more work to do.
但这是个很好的例子,我们始终优先考虑既保持雄心又确保安全。嗯。对吧?我们同等重视两者,并全力以赴,对目前的进展和用户对体验的热爱感到无比欣喜。今年我们确实扩大了很多规模,2026年还会继续扩展。
But we you know, it's a good example where we always prioritized being ambitious and safety at the same time. Mhmm. Right? And and and equally committed to both and and pushed hard and, you know, couldn't be more thrilled with how it's working, how much people love love the experience. And it this year, it's definitely we've scaled up a lot, and we'll continue scaling up in '26.
话说回来,竞争正在加剧。尽管Technica是竞争对手,但你一直与埃隆保持友好,其实你和很多科技CEO关系都不错。这种互相尊重的态度你怎么看待特斯拉的机器人出租车计划?你认为这是竞争吗?
That said, the competition is heating up. You've been friendly with Elon even though Technica is a competitor, but you've been friendly with a lot of tech CEOs. In that way, just showing respect towards them and so on. What what do you think about the robotaxi efforts that Tesla is doing? Do see it as competition?
你怎么想?你喜欢这种竞争吗?
What do you think? Do you like the competition?
作为谷歌,我们是最早也是SpaceX最大的支持者之一。对吧?我们对SpaceX的成就感到兴奋,也很幸运能作为公司投资者参与其中。而且我们并不直接与特斯拉竞争。
We are one of the earliest and biggest backers of SpaceX as Google. Right? So, you know, thrilled with what SpaceX is doing and fortunate to be investors as a company there. Right? And and, look, we don't compete with Tesla directly.
我们不造车等等。我们研发的是L4-L5级自动驾驶系统,打造通用型Waymo驾驶系统,适用于多种场景。他们显然也在推进特斯拉自动驾驶。
We are not making cars, etcetera. Right? We are building l four five autonomy. We're building a Waymo driver, which is general purpose and can be used in many settings. They are obviously working on making Tesla self driving too.
我默认埃隆做任何事都会成功。这对我来说毋庸置疑。但这个领域如此广阔——想想交通出行市场的机会空间,Waymo驾驶系统是能应用于多种场景的通用技术。
I've just assumed it's a de facto that Elon would succeed in whatever he does. So, like, you know, I I you know, that that that is not something I question. So but I think we are so far from these spaces are such vast spaces. Like, I I think think about transportation, the opportunity space. The Waymo Driver is a general purpose technology we can apply in many situations.
所以这是片广袤的蓝海。在所有未来场景中,我相信特斯拉会成功,Waymo也会蓬勃发展。
So you have a vast green space. In all future scenarios, I see Tesla doing well and, you know, Waymo doing well.
就像我们讨论新石器时代包裹时说的,当历史书写所谓AI包裹时,自动驾驶汽车很可能是颠覆一切的重大变革。想象未来一二十年间,从人工驾驶到自动驾驶的彻底转变,其影响可能远超我们预期,彻底改变人类出行方式。这种可能性及其二阶三阶效应,正如你现在特斯拉身上看到的,很可能也会在Alphabet内部显现,无论是Waymo还是Gemini机器人项目,都可能将你们引入机器人技术的其他领域。
Like we mentioned with the Neolithic package, I think it's very possible that in the quote, unquote AI package when the history is written, autonomous vehicles, self driving cars, is like the big thing that changes everything. Imagine over a period of decade or two, just a complete transition from manually driven to autonomous, in ways we went we might not predict. It might change the way we move about the world completely. So that you know, the possibility of that, and then the second and third order effects, as you're seeing now with Tesla, very possibly you would see some internally with Alphabet, maybe Waymo, maybe some of the Gemini robotics stuff. It might lead you into the other domains of robotics.
别忘了Waymo本质上是个机器人。
Because we should remember that Waymo's a robot.
嗯。
Mhmm.
它恰好是四个轮子的。所以你说下一个重大突破,我们也可以将其纳入AI包中。重大时刻可能出现在机器人领域。你认为那会是什么样子?
It just happens to be on four wheels. So you you said that the next big thing, we can also throw that into AI package. The big moment might be in the space of robotics. What do you think that would look like?
Demis和谷歌DeepMind团队非常专注于Gemini机器人技术。对吧?所以我们肯定在很好地构建底层模型。我们在那里有很多投资,我认为我们在该领域的研究也相当前沿。所以我们肯定在推动这个方向。
Demis and the Google DeepMind team is very focused on Gemini robotics. Right? So we are definitely building the underlying models well. So we have a lot of investments there, and I think we're also pretty cutting edge in our research there. So we are definitely driving that direction.
显然我们正在考虑机器人技术的应用。我们会认真对待。今天我们正在与几家公司合作,但这是一个我会说请继续关注的领域。我们尚未完全对外阐述我们的计划,但这是我们肯定致力于推动大量进展的领域。我认为AI最终将推动机器人技术的巨大进步。
We obviously are thinking about applications in robotics. We'll we'll kind of work seriously. We are partnering with a few companies today, but it's an area I would say stay tuned. We are, you know, we are yet to fully articulate our plans outside, but it's an area we are definitely committed to driving a a lot of progress. But I think AI ends up driving that massive progress in robotics.
这个领域已经被阻碍了一段时间。我的意思是,硬件已经取得了非凡的进展。软件一直是挑战,但现在有了AI和我们正在构建的通用模型,我们正在构建这些模型,让它们以安全、通用的方式在现实世界中工作,这是我们正在大力推动的前沿。
The field has been held back for for a while. I mean, hardware has made extraordinary progress. The software had been the challenge, but, you know, with AI now and the and and the and the generalized models we are building, you know, we are building these models, getting them to work in the real world in a safe way, in a generalized way is the frontier we're pushing pretty hard on.
嗯,很高兴看到模型和不同团队整合到所有都在推动构建一个世界模型。所以从所有这些不同的角度,多模态,你最终试图让Gemini做同样的事情,这将使AI模式在回答你的问题时非常有效,这需要一种世界模型,同样的事情将帮助机器人在物理世界中有用。所以一切都是对齐的。
Well, it's really nice to see that the models and the different teams integrated to where all of them are pushing towards one world model that's being built. So from all these different angles, multimodal, you're ultimately trying to get Gemini the same thing that would make AI mode really effective in answering your questions, which requires a kind of world model, is the same kind of thing that would help a robot be useful in the physical world. So everything is aligned.
这正是使这一刻如此独特的原因,因为经营一家公司,你第一次可以以一种非常深入的横向方式进行一项投资。在此基础上,你可以推动多个业务前进。对吧?你知道,这正是我们在谷歌和Alphabet所做的。对吧?
That that is what makes this moment so unique because running a company, for the first time, you can do one investment in a very deep horizontal way. On top of it, you can, like, drive multiple businesses forward. Right? And, you know, and that's that's effectively what we are doing in Google and Alphabet. Right?
是的。一切都像提前计划好一样汇聚在一起,但当然不是。一切都是分布式的。我的意思是,如果Gmail和Sheets以及所有这些其他令人难以置信的服务,我可以为Gmail唱赞歌多年。我的意思是,它彻底改变了电子邮件。
Yeah. It's all coming together like it was planned ahead of time, but it's not, of course. It's all distributed. I mean, if Gmail and Sheets and all these other incredible services, I can sing Gmail praises for years. I mean, it just just revolutionized email.
但当你开始将AI Gemini集成到Gmail中时,我的意思是,那是另一回事。说到生产力倍增器,人们抱怨电子邮件,但那改变了一切。电子邮件,就像电子邮件的发明改变了一切,而且它已经成熟。有一些人试图革新电子邮件,其中一些是在Gmail之上,但那已经成熟,可以进行创新,不仅仅是垃圾邮件过滤,但你展示了非常棒的演示
But the moment you start to integrate AI Gemini into Gmail, I mean, that's the other thing. Speaking of productivity multiplier, people complain about email, but that changed everything. Email, like the invention of email changed everything, and it's been ripe. There's been a few folks trying to revolutionize email, some of them on top of Gmail, But that's, like, ripe for innovation, not just spam filtering, but you you the demo the really nice demo of
个性化回复。对吧?
Personalized responses. Right?
个性化回应。一开始,我对此感到非常糟糕。但后来我意识到,感到难过并没有什么不对,因为你举的例子是当朋友问起,比如你去某个徒步地点时,有什么建议吗?他们只是搜索你所有的信息来给出好建议,然后你再锦上添花,可能加上一些关爱或友情之类的。
Personalized responses. And it at first, I was like at first, I felt really bad about that. But then I realized that there's nothing wrong to feel bad about because when you the example you gave is when a friend asks, you know, you went to whatever hiking location. Would you have any advice? And they just search us through all your information to give them good advice, and then you put the cherry on top, maybe some love or whatever, camaraderie.
但信息层面的知识传递确实为你代劳了。
But it the informational aspect, the knowledge transfer does for you.
我认为会有重要的时刻。比如,就像今天,如果你亲手写一张卡片寄给别人,那是件特别的事。同样地,对朋友来说,也许你的朋友写信说他过得不好之类的。你知道,这些是你想节省时间的时刻。
I think there'll be important moments. Like, it should be like, today, if you write a card in your own handwriting and send it to someone, that's a special thing. Similarly, there'll be a time I mean, to to your friends, maybe your friend wrote and said he's not doing well or something. You know, those are moments you wanna save your times
嗯。
Mhmm.
为了写点什么,主动联系。但你知道,比如要求提供你旅行的所有细节,对我来说,让AI助手来帮你很有意义。对吧?所以我认为两者都很重要,但我对这个方向感到兴奋。是的。
For writing something, reaching out. But, you know, like saying, give me all the details of the trip you took, you know, to me makes a lot of sense for a AI assistant to help you. Right? And so I think both are important, but I think I think I'm excited about that direction. Yeah.
我认为最终,它给了我们人类更多时间去做我们认为有意义的事情。我想这让很多人感到害怕,因为我们将不得不问自己一个难题:我们觉得什么是有意义的?我相信有答案。我是说,这是关于存在意义的老问题,你必须试着弄清楚。那最终可能是养育子女,或在艺术、写作等某些领域发挥创造力,它挑战你去思考,你知道,这是个好问题,问问自己:在我的生活中,什么带给我最大的快乐和满足感?
I think ultimately, it gives more time for us humans to do the things we humans find meaningful. And I think it scares a lot of people because we're gonna have to ask ourselves the hard question of, like, what do we find meaningful? And I'm sure there's answers. I mean, it's the old question of the meaning meaning of existence is you you have to try to figure that out. That might be ultimately parenting or being creative in some domains of art or writing, and it it challenges to to to like, you know, it's a good question of to ask yourself, like, in my life, what is the thing that brings me most joy and fulfillment?
如果我能真正把更多时间集中在那上面,那将非常强大。
And if I'm able to actually focus more time on that, that's really powerful.
我认为那是,你知道,那是圣杯。如果你做对了,我认为能让更多人找到那个。
I think that's the, you know, that's the holy grail. If you get this right, I think it allows more people to find that.
我必须问你,在编程方面,AI在编程上越来越出色。Gemini,无论是AgenTic还是LLM,都令人难以置信。所以很多程序员非常担心他们会失业。他们应该有多担心?他们应该如何调整,才能在这个越来越多代码由AI编写的新世界中蓬勃发展?
I have to ask you, on the programming front, AI is getting really good at programming. Gemini, both the AgenTic and just the LLM has been incredible. So a lot of programmers are really worried that their jobs they will lose their jobs. How worried should they be, and how should they adjust so they can be thriving in this new world where more and more code is written by AI?
我认为有几件事。看看谷歌,你知道,我们已经公布了统计数据,比如现在30%的代码使用了AI生成的建议之类的。但最重要的指标,我们仔细衡量的是:由于AI,我们公司的工程速度提高了多少?对吧?这很难衡量,我们试图严格地衡量它。
I think a few things. Looking at Google, you know, we've given way stats around, like, you know, 30% of code now uses, like, AI generated suggestions or whatever it is. But the most important metric, and we carefully measure this, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI? Right? And it's, like, tough to measure, and we kinda rigorously try to measure it.
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根据我们的估算,这一数字现已达到10%。对吧?目前在整个公司范围内,我们通过使用AI实现了10%的工程效率提升。但我们计划明年招聘更多工程师。对吧?
And our estimates are that that number is now at 10%. Right? Like, now across the company, we've accomplished a 10% engineering velocity increase using AI. But we plan to hire engineers more engineers next year. Right?
因为我们的可操作机会空间也在扩大。对吧?嗯。所以我认为,至少在近中期,对许多工程师来说,它能释放越来越多的...即使在工程和编码中,有些环节本身就充满乐趣。比如设计工作。
So you because the opportunity space of what we can do is expanding too. Right? Mhmm. And so I think, hopefully, you know, for at least the near to midterm, for many engineers, it frees up more and more of the you know, even in engineering and coding, there are aspects which are so much fun. You're designing.
你在做架构。你在解决问题。当然也有很多枯燥的苦力活。但希望它能消除大量这类工作,让编程变得更有趣,给你更多时间进行创造、解决问题、与同事头脑风暴等等。对吧?
You're architecting. You're solving a problem. There's a lot of grunt work, you know, which all goes hand in hand. But it hopefully takes a lot of that away, makes it even more fun to code, frees you up more time to create, problem solve, brainstorm with your fellow colleagues, and so on. Right?
这就是其中的机遇。其次,我认为这将把创造力赋予更多人,意味着人们会创造更多。也就是说会有更多工程师做更多事情。虽然难以完全预测,但就目前而言,人们采用这些工具后会成为更好的程序员。就像现在下棋的人比以往任何时候都多。
So that's that's the opportunity there. And second, I think, like, you know, it'll attract, It'll put the creative power in more people's hands, which means people will create more. That means there'll be more engineers doing more things. So it's tough to fully predict, but, you know, I I think in general in this moment, it feels like, you know, know, people adopt these tools and be better programmers. Like, there are more people playing chess now than ever before.
对吧?至少从谷歌内部来看,我觉得这个趋势是积极的。所以我会建议他们多探讨这个问题。
Right? So, you know, it feels positive that way to me, at least speaking from within a Google context. So I would, you know, talk to them about it.
根据我的见闻,很多优秀程序员正在生成大量代码。是的。他们的生产力...虽然不总是会用到所有代码,你知道,还是需要...
I still I just know anecdotally, a lot of great programmers are generating a lot of code. Yeah. So their productivity they're not always using all the code just you know, there's still a
大量
lot of
编辑工作。但即便对我这样把编程当副业的人来说,效率也提升了五倍。即使是像谷歌这样影响大量用户的大型代码库,我想很快生产力还会进一步提升。
editing. But, like, even for me, I mean, it's still programming as a side thing. I think I'm, like, five x more productive. I don't I I think that's even for a large code base that's touching a lot of users like Google's does, I'm imagining, like, very soon that productivity should be going up even more.
真正的突破将来自我们使智能体能力更加强大。嗯。对的。我认为这会开启下一波大浪潮。10%已经是惊人的数字了。
The big unlock will be as we make the agent capabilities much more robust. Mhmm. Right. I think that's what unlocks that next big wave. I think the 10% is, like, a massive number.
想象一下,如果我明天宣布能让拥有数万名工程师的大型组织提升10%的生产力,这数字非常了不起。这与其他网站统计的'多少比例代码由AI生成'不同,我指的是整体实际生产力。真正的生产效率。对吧?
Like, know, if tomorrow, like, I showed up and said, like you can improve, like, a large organization's productivity by 10% when you have tens of thousands of engineers, that's a phenomenal number. And, you know, that's different than what other site has statistics saying, like, you know, like, this percentage of code is now written by AI. I'm talking more about, like, overall Actual productivity. The actual productivity. Right?
工程生产力其实是两个不同的概念,哪个才是更重要的指标呢?不过我认为情况会好转的。对吧?我觉得没有哪个工程师会在突然获得双倍效率后,只是单纯增加产出量。你们会创造出更多有价值的东西。
Engineering productivity, which is two different things and and which is the more important metric. And but I think it'll get better. Right? And, like, you know, I think there's no engineer who tomorrow, if you magically became two x more productive, you're just gonna create more things. You're gonna create more value added things.
所以我认为你们会从工作中获得更多满足感。对吧?而且这里面涉及很多
And so I think they you'll you'll find more satisfaction in your job. Right? So And there's a lot
方面。我是说,谷歌的实际代码库可能会因此改进——因为AI辅助会让代码更标准化,更便于人员在代码库中导航。而这反过来又会让AI更好地理解整个代码库,从而提升工程效能。所以我最近经常使用Cursor
of aspects. I mean, the actual Google code base might just improve because it'll become more standardized, more easier for people to move about the code base because AI will help with that. And therefore, that will also allow the AI to understand the entire code base better, which makes the engineering aspect and so I've been using cursor a lot
没错。
Yeah.
作为配合Gemini等模型的编程工具。它的强大之处在于能感知整个代码库,这让你可以向它提问,也让智能代理能在代码库中高效运作。这简直是巨大的突破。
As as a way to program with Gemini and other models. It's like, it one of its powerful things is it's aware of the entire code base, and that allows you to ask questions of it, it allows the agents to move about that code base in a really powerful way. I mean, that's a huge unlock.
想象一下代码迁移、重构旧代码库这些场景。重构。对。我是说,想想看当我们能以比现在更优质、更稳健的方式完成这些工作时...
Think about, like, you know, migrations, refactoring old code bases. Refactoring. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, think think about, like, you know, once we can do all this in a much better, more robust way than where we are today.
我觉得最终所有代码都会用JavaScript编写并在Chrome里运行。趋势就是这样的。说个有趣的,谷歌以严苛的工程师编码面试著称。在AI时代,你觉得这种面试形式会怎么改变?白板面试总不可能允许使用提示词吧?
I think in the end, everything will be written in JavaScript and run run-in Chrome. I think it's all going to that direction. I mean, just for fun, Google has legendary code coding interviews, like rigorous interviews for the engineers. How can you comment on how that has changed in the era of AI? It's just such a weird you know, the whiteboard interview, I assume, is not allowed to have some prompts.
这问题提得好。听着,我们确实会保留至少一轮现场面试环节。对,就是要确保应聘者基本功扎实。我认为这些基础能力始终重要。
Such a a good question. Look. I do think, you know, we're making sure, you know, we'll we'll introduce at least one round of in person interviews for people Yeah. Just to make sure the fundamentals are there. I think they'll end up being important.
但善用工具同样是关键能力。如果能用这些工具生成更优质的代码,我认为这是种优势。所以总体来看,我觉得这是巨大的进步。
But it's an equally important skill. Look. If you can use these tools to generate better code, like, you know, I think I think that's an asset. And so, you know, I think so overall, I think it's a it's a massive positive.
氛围型编码工程师。那你建议对编程感兴趣的学生仍然接受计算机科学的正规大学教育吗?你怎么看?
Vibe coding engineer. Do you recommend peep people students interested in programming still get an education in computer science, college education? What do you think?
我会的。如果你对计算机科学有热情,我会建议你继续。要知道,计算机科学显然远不止编程本身。所以我支持。我仍然不认为应该改变你追求的方向。
I do. If you have a passion for computer science, I would. You know, computer science is obviously a lot more than programming alone. So I would. I still don't think I would change what you pursue.
我认为AI将横向影响所有领域。具体方式很难预测。所以任何能培养良好第一性原理思维的教育,我认为都是优质教育。
I think AI will horizontally allow impact every field. It's pretty tough to predict in what ways. So any education in which you're learning good first principles thinking, I think is good education.
你们彻底改变了网页浏览体验。多年来革新了许多领域。Android改变了游戏规则,这是个令人惊叹的操作系统。关于Android我们聊上几个小时都不为过。
You've revolutionized web browsing. You've revolutionized a lot of things over the years. Android changed the game. It's an incredible operating system. We could talk for hours about Android.
Android的未来会是什么样子?随着Android XR的加入,能够实现增强现实、混合现实和物理世界中的虚拟现实,它是否会变得越来越以AI为中心?
What does the future of Android look like? Is it is it possible it becomes more and more AI centric, especially now that you throw into the mix Android XR with being able to do augmented reality and mixed reality and virtual reality in the physical world?
你看,计算领域最伟大的创新往往发生在范式转换时期。对吧?就像图形用户界面(GUI)的出现,后来移动设备上的多点触控和语音交互。同样地,我认为AR就是下一个范式。但实现优质AR的系统集成挑战确实非常大。
You know, the best innovations in computing have come when you're through a paradigm IO change. Right? Like, you know, when when with GUI and then with the graphical user interface and then with multi touch in the context of mobile voice later on. Similarly, I feel like, you know, AR is that next paradigm. I think it was held back both the system integration challenges of making good AR is very, very hard.
第二点是必须依赖AI,否则交互方式会过于复杂。要实现自然无缝的新范式交互,AI至关重要。这就是为什么Project Astra对Android XR生态如此关键。当我使用这些眼镜时,总惊叹于它们即将带来的实用性。
The second thing is you need AI to actually kind of otherwise, the IO is too complicated. For you to have a natural seamless IO to that paradigm, AI ends up being super important. And so this is why Project Astra ends up being super critical for that Android XR world. But it is I think when you use glasses and, you know, always been amazed, like, at at the how useful these things are going to be. So I look.
这对Android是真正的机遇。XR是其重要载体,但移动操作系统也值得重新构想。应用和快捷方式不会消失,但操作系统层面需要更智能的代理——能理解你的意图,从重复操作中学习,不断适应你。这才是我们需要突破的方向。
I think it's a real opportunity for Android. I think XR is one way it'll kinda really come to life, But I think there's an opportunity to rethink the mobile OS too. Right? I think we've been kind of living in this paradigm of, like, apps and shortcuts, all that won't go away. But, again, like, if you're trying to get stuff done at an operating system level, you know, it needs to be more agent take so that you can kind of describe what you want to do or, like, it proactively understands what you're trying to do, learns from how you're doing things over and over again, and kinda is adapting to you, all that is kind of, like, the unlock we need to go and do.
配合基础、高效、极简的UI。我有幸试戴过这些眼镜,体验惊人。那些微小细节难以言表——零延迟,一切流畅运行。
With a basic, efficient, minimalist UI. I've gotten a chance to try the glasses, and they're incredible. It's the little stuff. It's hard to put into words, but no latency. It just works.
就连那个查看地图的小演示:低头抬头间过渡丝滑,显示的信息量恰到好处——既不会分散对外界的注意力,又能在需要时提供必要上下文。要实现这些,必须解决大量系统问题,确保AI整合后的整体体验。每个操作都能唤起处理基本问题的智能代理
Even that little map demo where you look down and you look up, and there's a very smooth transition between the two and useful very small amount of useful information is shown to you. Enough not to distract from the world outside, but enough to provide a bit of context when you need it. And some of that in order to bring that into reality, you have to solve a lot of the OS problems to make sure it works when you're integrating the AI into the whole thing. So every everything you do launches an agent that answers some basic question
为你服务。登月计划啊。我太喜欢这个设想了。
for you. Moonshot. You know? I I love it.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
不,但你知道,我认为我们其实已经...这比其他天马行空的想法更接近现实。我们预计今年晚些时候会向开发者提供课程,明年面向消费科学领域。所以这是个激动人心的时刻。
No. But but, you know, I think we are you know, but it's much closer to reality than other moonshots. You know, we expect to have classes in the hands of developers later this year and and, know, in consumer science next year. So it's an exciting time.
是啊,执行得极其出色。Beam那套东西...有时候真说不准,有人在Beam演示视频的热评里说:'这东西要么五周内被砍掉,要么五年内彻底改变所有会议模式'。谷歌尝试了太多项目,有时很遗憾会砍掉很有前景的,毕竟要专注的领域太多了。
Yeah. Well, extremely well executed. Beam, all the stuff, you know, because I sometimes you don't know, like, somebody commented on a top comment on one of the demos of Beam. They said this will either be killed off in five weeks or revolutionize all meetings in five years. And there's very much Google tries so many things and sometimes, sadly, kills off very promising projects, but because there's so many other things to focus on.
我用了好多谷歌产品。Google Voice现在还在用,真高兴它没被砍掉,还活着。谢谢啊。
I use I use so many Google products. Google Voice, still use. I'm so glad that's not being killed off. That's still alive. Thank you.
感谢所有守护它的人,因为这产品太棒了。他们不断创新,我要列个清单表达感谢:搜索不用说了,谷歌彻底革新了它;Chrome浏览器——这些话题都能聊上好几小时。
Whoever is defending that because it's it's it's awesome. And it's great. They keep innovating. I I just wanna list off just as a big thank you. So search, obviously, Google revolutionized Chrome, and all of these could be multi hour conversations.
Gmail我夸了十几年,地图是惊人的技术革新,Android我们聊过,YouTube也聊过,AdSense、谷歌翻译。对学者来说,谷歌学术堪称神器,还有图书扫描计划——让全世界知识触手可及,哪怕是小众领域。更别说DeepMind的AlphaZero、AlphaFold、AlphaEvolve,光AlphaEvolve我就能说上几天。
Gmail, I've been singing Gmail praises forever. Maps, incredible technological innovation and revolutionizing mapping. Android, like we talked about, YouTube, like we talked about, AdSense, Google Translate, for the academic mind, the Google Scholar is incredible when with the book and also the scanning of the books. So making all the world's knowledge accessible, even with that knowledge is a kind of niche thing, which Google Scholar is. And then obviously, with DeepMind, with AlphaZero, AlphaFold, AlphaEvolve, I could talk forever about AlphaEvolve.
这些都令人震撼。今年发布这些成果时,正逢那些唱衰谷歌的雄文问世。我们聊过的自动驾驶先驱、量子计算——还有低调改变世界的潜水技术。
That's mind blowing. All of that released. And as part of that set of things you released in this year, when those brilliant articles were written about Google is done. And like we talked about pioneering self driving cars and quantum computing, which could be another thing that is low key, is scuba diving. It's way to changing the world forever.
再来个茶水间问题:如果你造出AGI(人工通用智能),会问它什么?当谷歌真的创造出能回答任何问题的AGI时,你准备和它探讨什么话题?
So another pod has slash micro kitchen question. If you build AGI, what kind of question would you ask it? What what would you what would you want to talk about? Definitively, Google has created AGI that can basically answer any question. What topic are you going to?
在哪里?它在哪里?你要去哪里?
What where where is it? Where is it? Where are you going?
好问题。到那时它可能已经能主动告诉我该知道的事了。但如果要提问,我认为它能以出乎意料的方式帮我们更好地理解自己。现在人们就在用产品这么做,而在AGI语境下,这种能力会非常强大——无论是个人层面还是普世人性层面。
It's a great question. Maybe it's proactive by then and should tell me a few things I should know. But I think if I were to ask it, I think it'll help us understand ourselves much better in a way that'll surprise us, I think. And so maybe that's you already see people do it with the products, and so but, you know, in a AGI context, I think that'll be pretty powerful. At a personal level or or general human nature?
在个人层面上,比如你与AGI对话。是的,我认为它有可能以一种非常深刻的方式理解你,甚至达到一种深邃的程度。当然,也存在更显而易见的可能性,比如它或许能帮助我们更好地理解宇宙,从而拓展人类认知的边界。
At a personal level, like you talking to AGI. Yeah. I think I think, you know, there is some chance it'll it'll kinda understand you in a in a very deep way. I think, you know, in a profound way, that's a possibility. I I think there is also the obvious thing of, like, maybe it helps us understand the universe better, you know, in a way that expands the frontiers of our understanding of the world.
这确实令人无比兴奋。但说实话,我真的不确定。毕竟我尚未接触过如此强大的存在,不过这些可能性确实都存在。
That is something super exciting. But, look, I I really don't know. I think, you know, I haven't I haven't had access to something that powerful yet, but I think those are all possibilities.
我认为在个人层面,提出关于自我的问题——比如'什么让我快乐'这类连续追问——可能会让我们惊讶地发现,通过这种问答探索,我们能触及某些深刻真理,就像艺术杰作、伟大书籍或与挚友交谈时那种'事后恍然大悟'的顿悟时刻。但对我而言,首要问题是:宇宙中存在多少外星文明?百分之百会问这个。
I think that on the personal level, asking questions about yourself could a sequence of questions like that about what makes me happy. I think we would be very surprised to learn that those kind of the a sequence of questions and answers, we might explore some profound truths in a way that sometimes art reveals to us, great books reveal to us, great conversations with loved ones reveal, things that are obvious in retrospect, but are nice when they're said. But for me, number one question is about how many alien civilizations are there. 100%. Are they That's gonna be your first question.
第一问:现存与已消亡的外星文明数量?可能还会追问:它们距离多远?是否构成威胁?如果根本不存在外星文明,或只有细菌级生命却无高等文明,原因何在?
Number one, how many living in dead alien civilizations? Maybe a bunch of follow ups, like how close are they? Are they dangerous? If if there's no alien civilizations, why? Or if there's no advanced alien civilizations, bacteria like life everywhere, why?
阻碍文明进阶的壁垒是什么?是否因为当智慧发展到一定程度时,竞争机制虽催生高等文明,却必然引发军事冲突最终导致自我毁灭?我打算深入探讨这类...
What is the barrier preventing it from getting to that? Is it because that there's that when you get sufficiently intelligent, you end up destroying ourselves because you need competition in order to develop an advanced civilization? And when you have competition, it's going to lead to military conflict, and conflict eventually kills everybody. I don't know. I'm gonna have that kind
关于费米悖论的解答
of discussion. Answer to the Fermi Paradox.
没错。进行实质性讨论。不过现在听你回答后,我意识到这或许不是最具建设性的提问——毕竟不确定这类信息能带来什么实际改变。但这或许印证了Liz提到的人类普遍好奇心:我们渴望认知世界,而AI让全球信息更易获取,甚至能进一步满足我们日益增长的好奇心,让我们更深入地探索世界与自我。
Yeah. Exactly. And, like, have a real discussion about it. I'm not sure if it's a I'm realizing now with your answer is a more productive answer because I'm not sure what I'm gonna do with that information, but maybe it speaks to the general human curiosity that Liz talked about, that we're all just really curious, and making the world's information accessible allows our curiosity to be satiated some with AI even more. We can be more and more curious and learn more about the world, about ourselves.
在此过程中,我常思考——不知你能否评论——是否有可能衡量人类知识广度和深度的拓展(而非GDP增长)?就像谷歌搜索带来的变革,如今Gemini等AI模式延续的这种影响,确实难以量化。
And in so doing and I always wonder if I don't know if you can comment on, like, is it possible to measure the not the GDP productivity increase like we talked about, but maybe the whatever that increases, the the breadth and depth of human knowledge that Google has unlocked with Google Search and now with AI mode with Gemini is a difficult thing to measure.
多年前MIT有项研究估算谷歌搜索的影响力,结论是平均每人每年因此创造的价值相当于数千美元。这类效益确实存在,但...
Many years ago, there was a I think it was MIT study. They just estimated the impact of Google search, and they basically said it's the equivalent to on a per person basis, it's few thousands of dollars per year per person. Right? Like, it's the value that got created per year. Right?
要准确捕捉这些价值很困难。随着技术前沿不断推进,人们容易将其视为理所当然。比如AlphaFold的长期价值,又该如何衡量呢?
And and but it's, yeah, it's tough to capture these things. Right? Like, you kind of take it take it for granted as these things come, and and the frontier keeps moving. But, you know, how do you measure the value of something like AlphaFold over time? Right?
然后然后然后诸如此类。所以它是
And and and and so on. So it's
还有学习带来的生活质量提升。我得说,比如用AI完成部分编程工作后,不知为何我对编程更兴奋了。知识探索和世界发现也是如此,它让你更热爱生活。
And also the increase in quality of life when you learn more. I have to say, like, with some of the programming I do done by AI, for some reason, I'm more excited to program. Yeah. And so the same with knowledge, with discovering things about the world. It makes you more excited to be alive.
这会让你更保持好奇心——你越好奇,生活和体验世界就越精彩。虽然很难说这是否提升工作效率,但带来的生活幸福感可能远超生产力增益。这些事物确实提升了生活质量,只是难以量化。
It makes you more curious to and it keeps the more curious you are, the more exciting it is to live and experience the world. And it's very hard to I don't know if that makes you more productive. It probably not nearly as much as it makes you happy to be alive. And that's a hard thing to measure. The quality of life increases some of these things do.
当AI在人类所有领域都越来越强时,你认为什么特质最能让人类保持独特性?
As AI continues to get better and better at everything that humans do, what do you think is the biggest thing that makes us humans special?
听着。我我我觉得...人类本质的核心在于我们的意识,那些让我们独一无二的特质。也许界限会随时间模糊,这很难表述清楚。但我希望随着资源日益丰富,世界逐渐摆脱零和博弈的桎梏。
Look. I I I think stuff taught I mean, the essence of humanity, there's something about, you know, the consciousness we have, what makes us uniquely human. Maybe the lines will blur over time, and and it's tough to articulate. But I hope hopefully, you know, we live in a world where if you make resources more plentiful and make the world lesser of a zero sum game over time. Right?
虽然现在不是零和游戏,但在资源受限环境下人们常这样认为。所以我希望人性独有的价值——同理心、善意等能更多涌现,这是我的理想愿景。
And and which it's not, but, you know, in a resource constrained environment, people perceive it to be right. And and and so I hope the the values of what makes us uniquely human, empathy, kindness, all that surfaces more is the aspirational hope I have.
是的。这不仅放大了同情心,还有好奇心。那些关于存在意义的调侃辩论,以及DeepMind正在做的惊人科学探索——即便AI能帮我们解决问题,人类仍会继续探索科学、数学、物理领域的根本问题,有时问题本身才是真正的难题。
Yeah. It multiplies the compassion, but also the curiosity. Just the the banter, the debates we'll have about the meaning of it all, and I I I also think in the scientific domains, all the incredible work that DeepMind is doing, I think we'll still continue to to play, to explore scientific questions, mathematical questions, physics questions, even as AI gets better and better at helping us solve some of the questions. Sometimes the question itself is a really difficult thing.
无论是提出正确的新问题,寻找答案,还是这个自我发现的过程都会持续推进。早期与联合科学家和AlphaEvolve的工作就令人无比振奋。
Both the right new questions to ask and the answers to them and and and the self discovery process, which it'll drive, I think. You know, our early work with both coscientists and AlphaEvolve, just just super exciting to see. What gives
你对人类文明未来最抱有希望的是什么?
you hope about the future of human civilization?
听着。我向来是个乐观主义者。纵观人类文明历程,我们在诸多方面持续让世界变得更好。每个时代都有重大挑战需要应对,但若问自己愿意出生在现在还是过去任何时期?我的答案几乎总是当下。
Look. I've always I'm I'm I'm an optimist, and, you know, I I I look at now if you were to say you take the journey of human civilization, it's been you know, we've relentlessly made the world better, right, in many ways. At any given moment in time, there are big issues to work through. It may look, but, you know, I always ask myself the question, would you have been born now or any other time in the past? I most often not most often, almost always would rather be born now.
对吧?你懂吗?这就是人类文明所取得的非凡成就。对吧?而且,就像,你知道的,我们一直在某种程度上让世界变得更美好。
Right? You know? And so that's the extraordinary thing the human civilization has accomplished. Right? And, like, you know, and we've we've kind of constantly made the world a better place.
因此有种感觉告诉我,作为人类,我们总能集体崛起推动那个前沿向前发展。所以我预计未来也不会有什么不同。
And so something tells me, as humanity, we always rise collectively to drive that frontier forward. So I expect it to be no different in the future.
我完全同意你的观点。能活在这个时代我真心感激,同时也对未来充满期待。而你和这里杰出团队的工作,正是我对未来兴奋的重要原因之一。所以谢谢你们。感谢你们打造的所有酷炫产品,请别关停Google Voice。
I agree with you totally. I'm truly grateful to be alive in this moment, and I'm also really excited for the future. And the work you and the incredible teams here are doing is one of the big reasons I'm excited for the future. So thank you. Thank you for all the cool products you've built, and please don't kill Google Voice.
谢谢你,祖拉。
Thank you, Zula.
我们不会的。嗯。感谢你
We won't. Yeah. Thank you for
今天的交谈。这次对话太棒了。
talking today. This was incredible.
谢谢。非常愉快。感激不尽。
Thank you. Real pleasure. Appreciate it.
感谢收听与桑达尔·皮查伊的对话。支持本播客请查看简介中的赞助商或访问lexfreedman.com/sponsors。在这次对话前不久,我有机会体验了几个让我震惊的演示——工程实现令人印象深刻。第一个演示是Google Beam,第二个是XR眼镜。
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Sundar Pichai. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfreedman.com/sponsors. Shortly before this conversation, I got a chance to get a couple of demos that frankly blew my mind. The engineering was really impressive. The first demo was Google Beam, and the second demo was the XR glasses.
部分内容被拍摄下来,所以我想在此插入一些视频片段。
And some of it was caught on video, so I thought I would include here some of those video clips.
嘿,莱克斯。我是安德鲁,负责Google Beam团队,我们很兴奋能为你展示演示。我们将向你展示——我认为是——某种新事物的雏形。这就是我们的构想。
Hey, Lex. My name's Andrew. I lead the Google Beam team, and we're gonna be excited to show you a demo. We're gonna show you, I think, a glimpse of something new. So that's the idea.
一种连接的方式,一种让你无论身处何地都能与关心的人感受到彼此存在的方式。这就是Google Beam。这是我们构建的一个开发平台。这里有一个Google Beam的原型机,走廊那头还有一台。
A way to connect, a way to feel present from anywhere with anybody you care about. Here's Google Beam. This is a development platform that we've built. So there's a prototype here of Google Beam. There's one right down the hallway.
我马上过去启动它。我们将共同体验这个技术。我们会重新回到同一个房间里。太棒了。
I'm gonna go down and turn that on in a second. We're gonna experience it together. We'll be back in the same room. Wonderful.
哇哦。好吧。嘿,
Woah. Okay. Hey,
兰斯。我们到了。
Lance. Here we are.
好了。这已经是真实的了。哇。
Alright. This is real already. Wow.
这是真实的。哇。很高兴见到你。这是Google Beam。嗯哼。
This is real. Wow. Good to see you. This is Google Beam. Uh-huh.
我们试图让它感觉就像你和我可以在世界任何地方,但当这些魔法窗口打开时,我们又重聚了。我看到你的方式和你看到我的完全一样。几乎就像我们正坐在同一张桌子旁。比如,向你学习,与你交谈,共进晚餐,了解你。
We're trying to make it feel like you and I could be anywhere in the world, but when these magic windows open, we're back together. I see you exactly the same way you see me. It's almost like we're sitting at the table sharing a table together. Like, learn from you, talk to you, share a meal with you, get to know you.
所以你能感受到这种深度。
So you could feel the depth of this.
是的。很高兴认识你。哇。
Yeah. Great to meet you. Wow.
对于那些可能无法想象这看起来像什么的人来说,有一个3D版本。它看起来很真实。你看上去很真实。
So for people who probably can't even imagine what this looks like, there's a there's a three d version. It looks real. You look real.
在我看来,对你而言它显得很真实。
It looks to me, it looks real to you.
看起来你像是从屏幕里走出来一样。
It looks like you're coming out of the screen.
一旦进入Beam,我们很快会相信我们真的在一起。
We we quickly believe, once we're in Beam, that we're just together.
比如,你
Like, you
适应之后,你会自然而然地习惯以这种方式看世界,也会习惯这样与人相见。但本质上,通过这些神奇的屏幕,从世界任何角落都能实现。
settle into it, you're naturally attuned to seeing the world like this, and you just get used to seeing people this way. But literally, from anywhere in the world with these magic screens.
这太不可思议了。
This is incredible.
这是项精巧的技术。
It's a neat technology.
哇。我之前看过演示视频,但远不及亲身体验。我记得在某个演示视频下,YouTube热门评论说:我要高清干嘛?我正想关掉摄像头呢——而此刻感觉就像摄像头真的关闭了,我们同处一室。这体验太有说服力了。
Wow. So I saw demos of this, but they don't come close to the experience of this. I think one of the top YouTube comments on one of the demos I saw was like, why would I want a high definition? I'm trying to turn off the camera, this actually is this feels like the camera has been turned off and we're just in the same room together. This is really compelling.
没错。我知道现在时间也有点晚了,所以带了点心以防你有点饿。不过
That's right. I I know it's kinda late in the day too, so I brought you a snack just in case you're a little bit hungry. But
那你能把它推得更远些吗?然后就变成
So what can you push it farther and it just becomes
我们试试让它在房间之间漂浮,你知道,就像从我的房间飘进去那样。
let's let's try to float it between rooms, you know, it kinda it from my room into
然后然后你会看到我的手,我手的深度。
And then and then you see my hand, the depth of my hand.
当然。是的。哇哦。当然。没错。
Of course. Yes. Wow. Of course. Yeah.
感觉就像你试试这个。试着和我击掌,几乎有种触碰的感觉。对。几乎能感觉到是的。因为你太专注了,你知道,那应该是个击掌,感觉就像你能以那种方式连接。
It feels like you Try this. Try give me a high five, and there's almost a sensation of feeling touch. Yeah. Almost feel Yes. Because you're so attuned to, you know, that should be a high five, it feeling like you could connect with that way.
所以这有点像一种神奇的体验。
So it's kind of a magical experience.
哦,这真的很棒。这个要多少钱?
Oh, this is really nice. How much does it cost?
是的。我们有很多公司在测试它。我们刚刚宣布很快会将它作为一系列产品引入办公室。有些公司在帮我们制造这些屏幕。但最终,我认为这几乎会出现在每块屏幕上。
Yeah. We do we've a lot of companies testing it. We just announced that we're gonna be bringing it to offices soon as a set of products. We've got some companies helping us build these screens. But eventually, I think this will be in almost every screen.
我什么都没穿。好吧,澄清一下,我穿着西装打着领带。我是穿着衣服的。这不是CGI。除此之外,很酷。
There's nothing I'm not wearing anything. Well, I'm wearing a suit, tie, to clarify. I am wearing clothes. This is not CGI. But outside of that, cool.
而且音频效果非常好,你可以以同样的三维方式看到我。
And the audio is really good, and you can see me in the same three-dimensional way.
是的。音频是空间化的。所以如果我在这里说话,听起来当然就像从这里发出的。你知道,如果我移到房间另一侧。这些微妙的线索,这些对拉近人们的距离真的很重要。
Yeah. The audio is spatialized. So if I'm talking from here of course, it sounds like I'm talking from here. You know, if I move to the other side of the room. So these little subtle cues, these really matter to bring people together.
所有非语言信息、所有情感,那些现今缺失的部分,都在这里了。我们将其重新纳入系统。
All the nonverbals, all the emotion, the things that are lost today, here it is. We put it back into the system.
你搞定了这个
You pulled this It
感觉就像
feels like
天啊。他们真的做到了。而且我还看到整合了翻译功能对吧?就是这个。
Holy shit. They pulled it off. And integrated into this, I saw the translation also. Right? This is the Yeah.
我们准备了很多功能。让我展示几个很酷的。咱们一起做些协作。或许可以评审你最近的某个项目——毕竟你我经常合作,虽然现实中同处一室,但借助这个超级能力,我还能带其他...对,东西进来。
We've got a bunch of things. Let let me show you a couple kind of cool things. Let's do a little bit of work together. Maybe we could critique one of your latest So, you know, it's you and I work together, so of course, we're in the same room, but with this superpower, I can bring other Yeah. Things in here with me.
这感觉很棒。我们可以并肩而坐,一起观看内容或工作。团队甚至在这个系统里共享过餐食。但当你体验过这种临场感后,就会想加入更多超能力。
And it's it's nice. It you know, it's like we could sit together, we could watch something, we could work. We've shared meals as a team together in this system, but once you do the presence aspect of this, you wanna bring some other superpowers to it.
所以你们能一起审查代码?
And so you could do review code together?
没错,正是这样。我正在做幻灯片,或许你能帮我看看这个。
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. I've got some slides I'm working on. You know, maybe you could help me with this.
暂时盯着我看。我会滑回中心位置——其实我没动,但系统会自动调整我们的位置,知道我们...
Keep your eyes on me for a second. I'll slide back into the center. I didn't really move, but the system just kind of puts us in the right spot and knows where we
需要...噢,所以你转向笔记本时,系统就移动你,然后自动完成叠加?
need to Oh, so you just turn to your laptop, the system moves you, and then it does the overlay automatically?
它某种程度上改变了房间的形态,将物品置于它们需要的位置。每样东西在房间里都有其归属,都具备存在感或空间一致性,这让我们感觉彼此以及与其他事物同在。
It kind of morphs the room to put things in the spot that they need to be in. Everything has a place in the room. Everything has a sense of presence or spatial consistency, and that kind of makes it feel like we're together with us and other things.
我我还想说,你不仅是三维的。感觉你像是从屏幕里探出身来。声音也像是从屏幕里传出。你不只是以三维形态存在于那个世界。对。
I I should also say, you're not just three-dimensional. It feels like you're leaning, like, out of the screen. You hear, like, coming out of the screen. You're not just in that world three-dimensional. Yeah.
没错。天啊。移回中心位置。好的。好的。
Exactly. Holy crap. Move back to center. Okay. Okay.
是啊。是啊。
Yeah. Yeah.
让我来解释原理。你可能已经了解基本概念,但有两个关键点。是的。我们整合了两项非常困难的技术。其一是AI视频模型。
Let let me tell you how this works. You probably already have the the premise of it, but there's two things. Yeah. Two really hard things that we put together. One is a AI video model.
所以这里有一组摄像头——你之前问过肯尼斯这些。六个彩色摄像头就像现在的网络摄像头,拍摄视频流输入我们的AI模型,将其转化为你和我的三维视频。这本质上是个光场,因此你可以从任意视角观察这个交互式三维视频。
So there's a set of cameras. You asked Kenneth about those earlier. There's six color cameras, just like webcams that we have today, taking video streams and feeding them into our AI model and turning that into a three d video of you and I. It's effectively a light field. So it's kind of an interactive three d video that you can see from any perspective.
这些数据会传输到第二个组件——光场显示器。这个过程是双向的:我在光场显示器里看到你,你也在你的光场显示器里看到我。这些本质上是平板电视或显示屏,但具有立体感、深度感,尺寸准确。你能看到正确的阴影和光线效果。
That's transmitted over to the second thing, and that's a light field display. And it's happening bidirectionally. I see you and you see me both in our light field displays. These are effectively flat televisions or flat displays, but they have the sense of dimensionality, depth, size is correct. You can see shadows and lighting are correct.
嗯。从你的视角看一切都准确无误。所以如果你稍微移动而保持静止,你会看到不同的视角。原本被遮挡的部分会显现,阴影也会以应有的方式移动。
Mhmm. And everything's correct from your vantage point. So if you move around ever so slightly and I hold still, you see a different perspective here. You see kind of things that were occluded become reveal. You see shadows that, you know, move in the way they should move.
所有这些都通过我们的AI视频模型为你实时计算生成。它基于你的眼球位置,判断应该将正确场景放置在光场显示器的哪个位置,才能让你产生身临其境的感觉。
All of that's computed and generated using our AI video model for you. It's based on your eye position, where does the right scene need to be placed in this light field display for you just to feel present?
这是实时的。毫无延迟。我完全没看到你卡顿。
It's real time. No latency. I'm not seeing you weren't freezing up at all.
不,不。我希望不是。我认为这是你我之间实时的互动。这才是真正沟通所需要的。
No. No. I hope not. I think it's it's you and I together real time. That's what you need for real communication.
而且是在一个高质量的水平上
And at a at a quality level
太棒了。
awesome.
真实。
Realistic.
可以实现三个人一起吗?这种方式也会朝那个方向发展吗?
Is it possible to do three people? Like, is that gonna move that way also?
是的。让我给你演示一下。如果她加入我们的房间,嗯,你可以看到她,也可以看到我。如果人再多些,你最终会失去临场感。
Yeah. Let me let me kinda show you. So if if she enters the room with us Mhmm. You can see her, you can see me. And if we had more people, you eventually lose a sense of presence.
你会把人物缩小,失去比例感。所以可以想象窗口能容纳一定数量的人。如果想容纳一大群人,比如会议室或大房间,就需要更宽的窗口。如果只想看奶奶和孩子们,可以用小窗口。这样每个人都有座位,都有归属感,保持这种临场感。
You kinda shrink people down, you lose a sense of scale. So think of it as the window fits a certain number of people. If you wanna fit a big group of people, you want, you know, the boardroom or the big room, you need, like, a much wider window. If you wanna see, you know, just grandma and the kids, you can do smaller windows. So everybody has a seat at the table or everybody has a sense of where they belong and there's kind of this sense of presence that's obeyed.
如果人太多,就会退回到我们熟悉的二维模式,人物像瓷砖一样随意摆放。
If you have too many people, you kind of go back to like two d metaphors that we're used to, people and tiles placed anywhere.
关于我看到的画面,你们
For the image I'm seeing, did you
必须
have to
需要扫描吗?
get scanned?
我是说,我不扫描也能看到你。所以如果不需穿戴任何设备、无需预先扫描就简单多了。你只需按本来的方式行事,没人需要学习或佩戴任何东西。
I I mean, I see you without being scanned. So it's just so much easier if you don't have to wear anything, you don't have to pre scan. You just do it the way it's supposed to happen without anybody having to learn anything or put anything
我以为你们必须解决扫描问题,但这里不需要。只是摄像头,只是视觉。
I thought you had to solve the the scanning problem, but here, you don't. It's just cameras. It's just vision.
是视频。对。我们不是要近似模拟你,因为你每天的每个举动都很重要。比如我割伤自己、别个胸针,所有这些关于你的小细节,都会自然呈现。
It's video. Yeah. We're not trying to kind of make an approximation of you because everything you do every day matters, you know. I cut myself anything, I put on a pin. All the little kind of, you know, aspects of you, those just happen.
我们没时间扫描或捕捉这些细节、装扮虚拟形象。我们就是以真实面貌出现,所有信息都会如实传输到——
We don't have the time to scan or kinda capture those or dress avatars. We we kind of appear as we appear, and so all that's transmitted truthfully at the top of
克里斯,怎么
Chris, How
样?
are doing?
很高兴见到你。
Good to meet you.
幸会。正如马克斯提到的,
Nice to meet you. So as Max mentioned,
我们
we got
这里的智能眼镜。我们以一副优质眼镜为基础,时尚、轻便、佩戴舒适。然后我们思考,如何在此基础上构建出色的技术和体验?Android XR平台的核心原则之一,就是打造多模态对话设备,所见即所得,所听即所闻。因此配备了摄像头、扬声器,以及多个麦克风用于说话人隔离。
the eyeglasses here. We start with a foundation of great glasses, something stylish, lightweight, wearable. And we say, how can we build great technology and experiences on top of that? One of the core tenets of the Android XR platform, this idea of a multimodal conversational device, see what you see, hear what you hear. So you've got a camera, you've got speakers, multiple microphones for speaker isolation.
我会让你们亲自试试。对,抱歉。把它唤醒
I'll give you a chance to try these yourself. Yeah. Sorry. Woke it
那边。
up there.
哇哦。没错。首先映入眼帘的是一个极其简洁直观的主屏幕。
Woah. Yeah. So the first thing you see is a super simple, straightforward home screen.
是的。所以
Yes. So
你应该能看到时间、天气和日历安排。这个设计旨在成为你全天快速浏览信息的综合站。希望能让你轻松获取所需后立即回到手头事务。想象一下:点亮屏幕,快速扫视信息,然后继续前行。此刻你完全可以进行自然对话。
you probably see the time, the weather, calendar appointments there. This is designed to be sort of your one stop shop for quick glanceable information throughout the day. Want to do something that's easy to get what you need and then go back to what you're doing. So you can imagine turning on the display, getting that quick glance, then, continuing on your way. You can be fully conversational at this point.
你可以,比如询问这些画作的问题。可以随时打断,提出追问。就像之前说的,如果想暂停,只需轻点右侧这里。
You can, ask questions, for example, about the paintings. You can interrupt. You can ask follow-up questions. And as I mentioned before, if you want to at any time pause, you just tap there on the right.
Gemini,这幅画多少钱?
Gemini, how much does this painting cost?
这幅画名为《1875年利斯菲利普桥》,作者阿尔芒·纪尧姆。看起来是印刷品,在找不到卖家的情况下无法确定其价格。
The painting is called the Bridge of Lis Philippe 1875 by Armand Guillaume. It appears to be a print, and it would be impossible to know its cost without finding the seller.
好吧。所以这是赝品。我明白了。为什么人类愿意为画作花这么多钱?
Okay. So this is fake. I understand. Why do humans pay so much money for paintings?
人们愿意为画作支付高价是因为其艺术价值。艺术家表示这是难得的佳作,值得他学习鉴赏。为了节省时间,我还有几样东西想展示给你看。你能再次长按侧面让Gemini进入休眠吗?就是这样。
People pay a lot for paintings because of their artistic merit. The artist is saying it's a decent rarity and for the appreciation he learned. So a few more things that I wanna show you just for sake of time. Could you go ahead and long press on the side again to to sleep Gemini there? There you go.
你上周有没有碰巧看Google IO大会?看了的话,可能短暂见过台上演示的Google Maps体验。
Did you catch Google IO last week by any chance? Yes. So you might have seen on stage the Google Maps experience very briefly.
我
I
想让你今天有机会感受一下那种体验。想象你正走在街上,如果像平时走路那样抬头直视前方,就能获得逐向导航提示。这样你就能感知到
wanted to give you a chance to get a sense of what that feels like today. You can imagine you're walking down the street. If you look up like you're walking straight ahead, you get quick turn by turn directions. So you have a sense of
哇。什么
Woah. What
下一个
the next
转弯是怎样的。
turn is like.
不错。保持
Nice. Keeping
手机放在口袋里。
your phone in your pocket.
哦,这设计太直观了。
Oh, that's so intuitive.
有时候你需要那种快速的确认感,对吧。
Sometimes you need that quick sense of which Yeah.
是那个
Is the
正确的方式。有时候。
right way. Sometimes.
对。所以假设
Yeah. So you let's say
你正走过来
you're coming
地铁出站,从出租车下来,你只需低头看脚。我们已设置好从俄语翻译成英语的功能。
out subway, getting out of a cab, you can just glance down at your feet. We have it set up to translate from Russian to English.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我想该轮到我戴眼镜了。嗯。如果你不介意可以和我说话。
I think I get to wear the glasses. Mhmm. You can speak to me if you don't mind.
我会说俄语。
I can speak Russian.
我挺好的。你怎么样?有点想爆粗口,想说些不合时宜的话。
I'm doing well. How are you doing? Tempted to swear, tempted to say inappropriate things.
我看到它能实时转录,显然,基于不同语言及主谓顺序差异,有时会有轻微延迟,但这简直就像现实世界的字幕一样。
I see it transcribed in real time, and so obviously, you know, based on the different languages and sequence of subjects and verbs, there's a slight delay sometimes, but it's really just like subtitles for the real world.
太酷了。谢谢分享。好了,回到我这边。希望你们看我像《2001太空漫游》里猿人面对黑石碑那样震惊的样子还算有趣。
Cool. Thank you for this. Alright. Back to me. Hopefully, watching videos of me having my mind blown, like the apes in 2001 Space Odyssey playing with a monolith was somewhat interesting.
如我所言,我深受震撼。现在我想,如果允许的话,我可以对这期节目做些补充评论。在与桑达尔·皮查伊的对话中,我们探讨了'新石器时代包裹'的概念——这是约一万两千年前第一次农业革命伴随的创新集合,包括社会等级形成、早期原始政府形态、劳动分工、动植物驯化、初期贸易形式,以及人类大规模协作(比如建造金字塔和哥贝克力石阵所需的那种协作)。我认为这或许是讨论改变人类历史发明的正确方式——不是作为单一发明,而是作为伴随而来的创新与变革网络。我在节目中提到的'生产力乘数框架',就是量化这些发明影响力的好方法。
Like I said, I was very impressed. And now I thought, if it's okay, I could make a few additional comments about the episode and just in general. In this conversation with Sundar Pichai, I discussed the concept of the Neolithic package, is the set of innovations that came along with the first agricultural revolution about twelve thousand years ago, which included the formation of social hierarchies, the early primitive forms of government, labor specialization, domestication of plants and animals, early forms of trade, large scale cooperations of humans, like that required to build, yes, the pyramids and temples, like Gobekli Tepe. I think this may be the right way to actually talk about the inventions that changed human history, not just as a single invention, but as a kind of network of innovations and transformations that came along with it. And the productivity multiplier framework that I mentioned in the episode, I think is a nice way to try to concretize the impact of each of these inventions under consideration.
我们必须记住,在这个快速衍生发明的网络中,每个节点本身都是生产力乘数——有些是叠加效应,有些是倍增效应。因此某种意义上,当评估发明对人类历史的影响时,这个包裹网络的规模才是关键。现代 discourse 中最常被提及的重大变革时期,当属工业革命乃至二十世纪的计算机或互联网,大概因为现代人最容易直观感受这些技术的指数级影响。
And we have to remember that each node in the network of the sort of fast follow on inventions is in itself a productivity multiplier. Some are additive, some are multiplicative. So in some sense, the size of the network in the package is the thing that matters when you're trying to rank the impact of inventions on human history. The easy picks for the period of biggest transformation, at least instead of modern day discourse, is the industrial revolution or even in the twentieth century, the computer or the Internet. I think it's because it's easiest to intuit for modern day humans, the impact, the exponential impact of those technologies.
但最近(虽然这个想法周周在变),通过大量阅读古代人类历史,我认为最重要的发明当属第一次农业革命——那个催生人类文明的新石器时代包裹。正是它启动了人类集体智慧机器的规模化,让我们成为接下来一万年技术进步的'启动程序'(当然包括AI及其衍生技术)。当然有人会辩称'发明'一词不适用于农业革命——尤瓦尔·赫拉利就认为真正的发明者是少数植物物种(小麦、水稻和马铃薯)。
But recently, I suppose this changes week to week, but I have been doing a lot of reading on ancient human history. So recently, my pick for the number one invention would have to be the first agricultural revolution, the neolithic package that led to the formation of human civilizations. That's what enabled the scaling of the collective intelligence machine of humanity, and for us to become the early bootloader for the next ten thousand years of technological progress, which, yes, includes AI, and the tech that builds on top of AI. And of course, it could be argued that the word invention doesn't properly apply to the agriculture revolution. I think actually Yuval Noah Harari argues that it wasn't the humans who were the inventors, but a handful of plant species, namely wheat, rice, and potatoes.
这个观点固然公允,但正如我说的,我乐在其中。在这里我把整个地球视为持续演化的系统,并在此语境下使用'发明'一词。当我们追问人类进步对数坐标图上最大跃升点时,AI/AGI/ASI最终会占据榜首吗?鉴于其将带来的发明网络规模,我认为可能性极大。
This is strictly a fair perspective, but I'm having fun, like I said, with this discussion. Here, I just think of the entire earth as a system that continuously transforms, and I'm using the term invention in that context. Asking the question of when was the biggest leap on the log scale plot of human progress? Will AI, AGI, ASI eventually take the number one spot in this ranking? I think it has a very good chance to do so, due again to the size of the network of inventions that will come along with it.
我们在播客中讨论过所谓'AI包裹'可能包含的内容,但还有更多可能性(包括之前与Dari Amadeh探讨的生物创新和科学进展)。这期节目让我特别兴奋的是近期可能实现的突破:通过教育和机器翻译,解锁全人类80亿大脑的认知潜力,让知识获取和创新过程民主化。语言技术确实是重大解锁键,但'AI包裹'还包含更多——比如与Dario讨论的治愈所有人类重大疾病(他在《慈智机器》文中重点提及)。
I think we discussed in this podcast the kind of things that would be included in the so called AI package, but I think there's a lot more possibilities, including discussed in previous podcasts, in many previous podcasts, including with Dari Amadeh talking on the biological innovation side, the science progress side. In this podcast, I think we talk about something that I'm particularly excited about in the near term, which is unlocking the cognitive capacity of the entire landscape of brains that is the human species, making it more accessible through education and through machine translation, making information, knowledge, and rapid learning and innovation process accessible to more humans, to the entire 8,000,000,000, if you will. So I do think language or machine translation apply to all the different methods that we use on the Internet to discover knowledge is big unlock. But there are a lot of other stuff in the so called AI package, like discussed with Dario, curing all major human diseases. He really focuses on that in the Machines of Love and Grace essay.
人类程序员将迎来生产力巨跃——从'人在回路'的半自主编程,到由超级AI研究员自我迭代开发。自动驾驶等领域将产生深远影响,当AI系统能充分理解并交互人类世界时,许多人工控制系统将实现全自主。考虑到交通对人类文明的基石作用,其影响将远超经济层面。
I think there will be huge leaps in productivity for human programmers and semi autonomous human programmers, so humans in the loop, but most of the programming is done by AI agents. And then moving that towards a superhuman AI researcher that's doing the research that develops and programs the AI system in itself. I think there'll be huge transformative effects from autonomous vehicles. These are the things that we maybe don't immediately understand or we understand from an economics perspective, but there will be a point when AI systems are able to interpret, understand, interact with the human world to a sufficient degree to where many of the manually controlled human in the loop systems we rely on become fully autonomous. I think mobility is such a big part of human civilization that there will be effects on that, that they're not just economic, but are social, cultural, and so on.
还能列举很多:AI参与艺术创作、政府职能数字化及AI化(减少腐败/提升效率)、人类向赛博格持续演化...随着AI能力增强,'人在回路'的共生状态将愈发显著。
And there's a lot more things I could talk about for a long time. So, obviously, the integration, utilization of AI in the creation of art, film, music. I think the digitalization and automating basic functions of government and then integrating AI into that process, thereby decreasing corruption and cost and increasing transparency and efficiency. I think we as humans, individual humans will continue to transition further and further into cyborgs. So if there's already a AI in the loop of the human condition, and that will become increasingly so as AI becomes more powerful.
我最期待的是科学大突破——不仅是医学,更在基础物理领域,这将带来能源革命,提升我们成为卡尔达肖夫一级文明的可能性,进而开启星际探索。短期内,就像工业革命催生专业分工那样,AI可能引发'去专业化'浪潮——当AI在特定领域超越人类时,整合AI的通才型人类将更具价值。这种认知方式的转变,或许会让我们更崇尚'通晓百艺'的生存哲学。
The thing I'm obviously really excited about is major breakthroughs in science, and not just on the medical front, but on physics, fundamental physics, which would then lead to energy breakthroughs, increasing the chance that we become, we actually become a Kardashev type one civilization, and then enabling us in so doing to do interstellar exploration of space, and colonization of space. I think they're also in the near term, much like with the industrial revolution that led to rapid specialization of skills, of expertise, there might be a great sort of despecialization. So as the AI AI system become superhuman experts at particular fields, there might be greater and greater value to being the integrator of AIs, for humans to be sort of generalists. And so the great value of the human mind will come from the generalists, not the specialists. That's a real possibility that that changes the way we are about the world, that we wanna know a little bit of a lot of things, and move about the world in that way.
当跨越某个临界点时,我们作为集体智慧、作为人类物种的身份可能会发生彻底的转变。顺便一提,在思考人类历史上最伟大的发明时——权当一点趣味——我们必须记住所有发明都是相互构建的,因此我们需要观察那个增量,即在人类指数级进步曲线上(我认为无法完美衡量)的阶跃变化。实际上,我们可以追溯地球生命的整个历史,之前的播客嘉宾尼克·莱恩在其著作《生命跃升》中出色地列举了地球生命进化过程中的十大发明,如DNA、光合作用、复杂细胞、性、运动、视觉等各类突破。我记不全书中的完整清单,但这些发明与人类体验相距甚远,以至于我对这些特定发明的生产力倍增的直觉完全失效,需要不同的框架来理解这些进化发明的意义。地球生命的起源,甚至宇宙大爆炸本身,当然是为后续一切奠定基础的元初发明。
That could have, when passing a certain threshold, a complete shift in who we are as a collective intelligence, as a as a human species. Also as an aside, when thinking about the invention that was the greatest in human history, again for a bit of fun, we have to remember that all of them build on top of each other, and so we need to look at the delta, the step change on the, I would say, impossibly to perfectly measure plot of exponential human progress. Really, we can go back to the entire history of life on Earth, and previous podcast guest, Nick Lane, does a great job of this in his book Life Ascending, listing these 10 major inventions throughout the evolution of life on Earth, like DNA, photosynthesis, complex cells, sex, movement, sight, all those kinds of things. I forget the full list that's on there, but I think that's so far from the human experience that my intuition about, let's say, productivity multipliers of those particular invention completely breaks down, and a different framework is needed to understand the impact of these inventions of evolution. The origin of life on earth, or even the big bang itself, of course, is the OG invention that set the stage for all the rest of it.
在这之下可能还存在更多尚未发现的底层支撑。总之,各位人类同胞,我们生活在有趣的时代。我确实相信人类积极发展路径的数量多于消极路径,但优势并不明显。所以我们千万别搞砸了。现在,请允许我以法国哲学家让·德拉布鲁埃尔的话作为结束。
And there are probably many more turtles under that, which are yet to be discovered. So anyway, we live in interesting times, fellow humans. I do believe the set of positive trajectories for humanity outnumber the set of negative trajectories, but not by much. So let's not mess this up. And now, let me leave you with some words from French philosopher, Jean Delabruere.
奇迹往往诞生于困境之中。感谢收听,期待下次相见。
Out of difficulties, grow miracles. Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
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