Limitless Podcast - 埃隆的新芯片或将真正取代英伟达(特斯拉AI5) 封面

埃隆的新芯片或将真正取代英伟达(特斯拉AI5)

Elon's New Chip Could Actually Dethrone Nvidia (Tesla AI5)

本集简介

本期节目我们将探讨特斯拉革命性的AI5芯片,这款被埃隆·马斯克誉为性能超越前代40倍的人工智能芯片,如何为Robotaxi自动驾驶出租车和Optimus人形机器人等产品带来颠覆性变革。同时我们还将重点解析Megablock能源系统——这项旨在释放50%闲置能源、重塑能源行业格局的创新技术。跟随我们一同解读马斯克构建特斯拉协同生态的宏伟蓝图。 ------🌌 无限前沿总部:收听与关注通道 ⬇️ https://limitless.bankless.com/ https://x.com/LimitlessFT ------ 时间轴 0:00 特斯拉AI芯片的崛起 1:33 AI芯片产业格局 9:32 未来电池技术 16:15 Megapack如何驱动未来 20:44 能源分配革命 22:16 社区互动与反馈 ------ 相关资源 Josh: https://x.com/Josh_Kale Ejaaz: https://x.com/cryptopunk7213 ------ 非财务或税务建议。投资声明详见: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

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Speaker 0

埃隆又在玩《权力的游戏》了,这次他发布了一款新的AI芯片,将为他的Robotaxi、新款特斯拉擎天柱以及他目前推出的所有设备和汽车提供动力。这件事之所以如此重要,是因为它将直接与英伟达竞争。他正冲着黄仁勋的喉咙而来。但在其他消息中,他还发布了这款名为Mega Block的新产品,它由超级电池组组成,可以为从家庭到大型城镇的一切供电。但这件事如此重要的原因是,它将解锁美国和世界目前无法获取的50%的能源和电力,这一点非常、非常重要。

Elon is playing Game of Thrones yet again, this time releasing a new AI chip that is gonna power his Robotaxi, his new Tesla Optimus Primes, and all of his devices and cars that he launches right now. And the reason why this is so important is this is gonna contend directly with NVIDIA. He's coming for Jensen Huang's throat. But in other news, he also released this new product called the Mega Block, which consists of mega packs, which can power everything from homes to massive towns. But the reason why this is so important is it's gonna unlock 50% of the energy and power that The US and the world currently does not have access to, and that is so, so important.

Speaker 0

但首先从这些名为特斯拉AI五芯片的新AI芯片开始,据称它比他们目前的AI四芯片要好40倍。但别只听我说,听听他本人怎么说。

But starting off with these new AI chips called Tesla's AI five chip, which is supposedly meant to be 40 times better than their current AI four chips. But don't take my word for it. Take it from the man himself.

Speaker 1

我们正在最终确定AI五的设计,这将是从AI四的一次巨大飞跃。在某些指标上,AI五的改进将比AI四好40倍。哇,所以是40%,40倍。而这正是因为我们以非常精细的级别紧密协作于AI软件和AI硬件。

And we're finalize finalizing the design of AI five, which will be an immense jump from AI four. By some metrics, the improvement in AI five will be 40 times better than AI four. Wow. So 40%, 40 times. And and this is because we work so closely at a very fine grade level on the AI software and the AI hardware.

Speaker 0

乔什,我知道你观看了整个关于AI五芯片和Transformer内容的演示。在我们继续之前,我想听听你的看法。

Josh, know that you watched the entire presentation for the AI five chips and for the transformer stuff. I wanna hear your take before we go any further.

Speaker 2

是的。我们一次说一件事。我们先说AI芯片,因为它们太棒了。所以AI芯片自公司成立以来一直是特斯拉的重要组成部分。当汽车需要自动驾驶时,意味着你需要大量的处理能力,需要这些芯片在车辆本地运行强大的推理能力。

Yeah. We'll start one thing at a time. We'll do the AI chips first because those are freaking awesome. So AI chips have been big a big part of Tesla since the beginning of the company. When you require autopilot in cars, it means you need a lot of processing, a lot of inference power on these chips to run locally on the vehicles.

Speaker 2

AI五是他们一直在研发的自然延伸。所以如果你拥有过特斯拉,你会熟悉特斯拉的芯片,他们从AI一开始,升级到2.5、三、三点五,现在我们到了第四代,目前所有车辆都在搭载。硬件五在策略上略有变化,因为之前特斯拉在AI和芯片制造领域有两个专家团队。他们有Dojo团队,负责构建商业基础设施部门,然后还有AI芯片基础设施团队,负责制造实际装入车辆的芯片。他们最近做的是将这两个团队合并为一个单一的AI制造团队,他们现在只专注于AI五和AI六。

AI five is the natural extension of what they've been working on. So if you've owned a Tesla, you're familiar with the Tesla, they started with AI one, they went up to 2.5, three, three point five, now we're at four, which is currently shipping on all vehicles. Hardware five is a slight change in the strategy because previously, Tesla had these two domains of experts in the world of AI and chip fabrication. They had their dojo team, which was building this, like, commercial infrastructure arm, and then they had the AI chip infrastructure team, what that was building the chips that actually went in the vehicles. What they did recently is they merged the two together into a single AI fabrication team, and they are working solely on AI five and AI six.

Speaker 2

那么AI五有什么特别之处?嗯,除了比目前运行在车辆上的AI四快得多,正如埃隆刚刚描述的那样,AI五还有一个有趣的特点,他们开始将其用于数据中心的实时推理。所以AI五带来的一个有趣变化,我认为很多人不会意识到,我想把它和苹果联系起来,就是他们现在拥有了这种硬件芯片的垂直整合。所以阿贾兹,如果你还记得,苹果以前在MacBook上使用英特尔芯片。当你有一台MacBook Pro时,你用的是英特尔芯片,它运行得很好,直到苹果推出了M系列芯片。

Now what makes AI five so special? Well, aside from it being much faster than AI four, which is currently running on vehicles, like Elon just described, AI five also does this interesting thing where they're starting to actually use it for real time inference in data centers as well. So an interesting thing that happens with AI five that I don't think a lot of people are going to recognize, and I wanna kind of draw a tie to Apple, is that they they now own the vertical integration of this hardware chip. So Ajaz, if you remember previously, Apple used to use Intel chips for their MacBooks. When you had a MacBook Pro, you used an Intel chip, and it worked really well until Apple rolled out the m series chips.

Speaker 2

当他们把那些芯片放进MacBook时,我突然不再需要我那65磅重的PC来渲染视频了。我只需要我那小小的MacBook,电池续航翻倍,处理能力翻了两番,设备的各个方面都变得好得多,因为它被垂直整合到了系统中。他们拥有从硬件到软件及中间所有环节的完整技术栈。这就是特斯拉在机器人领域的M1芯片尝试。所以特斯拉目前有两个现实计算分支,即现实世界计算,那就是他们汽车中的自动驾驶和机器人中的自动驾驶。

And when they put those chips in a MacBook, suddenly I no longer needed my 65 pound PC to render a video. All I needed was my tiny little MacBook, and my battery life doubled, the processing power quadrupled, everything about the device got so much better because it was vertically integrated into the system. They own the entire stack from the hardware to software and everything between. This is Tesla's attempt at the m one chip, but for robotics. So Tesla currently has two arms of real compute, real world compute, and that's their autonomy in the cars and autonomy in the robots.

Speaker 2

AI5,以及不久之后的AI6,将是实际运行在这两个东西中的芯片。这是一个通用芯片,旨在为任何类型的自主硬件设备运行本地推理,而且它会非常快,非常令人印象深刻,并且足够小,可以装进所有这些较小的设备中。所以我认为这就是为什么这件事很重要,这非常像是苹果M系列芯片的时刻,但是对特斯拉而言,我认为这真的很酷,超级超级令人兴奋。

AI five, and shortly soon after, AI six will be the actual chip that runs in both of those things. It's a universal chip that exists to run local inference on any sort of autonomous hardware device, and it's gonna be really freaking fast, really impressive, and it'll it'll be small enough that it could fit into all of these smaller devices. So I think that's why this is a big deal, is this is very much Apple's m series chip moment, but for Tesla, which I think is really cool and super, super exciting.

Speaker 0

是的。我读了一些关于这个新芯片的重要统计数据,我读到它基本上可以服务高达2500亿参数的模型,Josh,这并不是我们在这个节目中提到过的最大的模型。我们一直在谈论来自中国的,比如Kimi K2之类的万亿参数模型。但我认为这里重要的部分是这些芯片带来的效率。我相信一旦他们开始大规模生产,这理论上将是每功率瓦特成本最低的硅芯片。

Yeah. I was reading up on a few of, like, the important stats about this new chip, and I read that it can basically service up to 250,000,000,000 parameter models, which isn't the largest models we've ever quoted on this show, Josh. We've been talking about, like, trillion parameter models coming from, like, the likes of, I don't know, Kimi k two out of China and stuff like that. But I think the important part here is the efficiency that comes from these chips. I believe this is, the cheapest silicon per power watt chip that would exist theoretically once they start, mass producing it.

Speaker 0

我认为它预计在2026年由台积电(TSMC)生产,Josh,台积电接近另一个AI硬件巨头,对吧?那就是英伟达(NVIDIA)。这让我开始整体思考英伟达,它基本上扼守着一些最大玩家所需的任何种类的AI GPU或芯片,对吧?

I think it's slated for 2026, out of TSMC, which is close to another big AI hardware giant, Josh. Right? And and that is NVIDIA. And and it got me thinking about NVIDIA as a as a whole, which basically has had the linchpin on any kind of AI GPU or chip that is needed from some of the biggest players. Right?

Speaker 0

OpenAI、Anthropic、谷歌,他们都使用并依赖英伟达,这家小公司(不是小公司,但)通过台积电在台湾的一个小岛上制造所有这些东西。所以从未真正有过什么主要的竞争对手。中国因为无法获得英伟达的东西而有过一些尝试,但他们从未真正取得任何进展。而现在我们看到了一个真正的王座挑战者,它尚未完全成形,但有计划这样做。

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, they all use, and rely on NVIDIA, this tiny company which is producing all these kinds of things. Not tiny company, but is manufacturing all these kinds of things on a tiny island in Taiwan via TSMC. And so there's never really been some kind of major competitor. There have been a a few attempts at this out of China because they haven't had access to NVIDIA stuff, but they've never really gotten anywhere. And now we're seeing a a real challenger to the throne, which hasn't materialized just yet, but has plans to do that.

Speaker 0

我看了这个视频,它真的很好地总结了埃隆在这里试图实现的目标,也许我们可以很快地播放一下。

And I was checking out this video, which, really kind of, like, summarizes what Elon is trying to pull off here, and maybe we can play it super quickly.

Speaker 3

这就像是,所有这些小组件如何组合成星座?然后你发现,哦,这个Optimus团队这么说,Robotex是这个和这个和这个。哦,我们其实不需要这个英伟达的东西。我们可以把它建造成一个芯片,然后它就匹配了三星的星座。然后我们再稍微调整一下。

It's like, what constellation of all these little components fits? And then you figure out, oh, this Optimus team says this, and Robotex is this and this and this. Oh, we actually don't need this NVIDIA thing. We can build this into one chip, and then it matches the Samsung constellation. And then we tweak it a little bit more.

Speaker 3

砰。这就是我所说的现实工程。

Boom. And that's what I mean with reality engineering.

Speaker 0

所以他这里指的是特斯拉当前的设备配置,以及他们制造的所有设备和机器,这些都需要采用不同架构的芯片,对吧?正如你之前提到的,乔什,至少从八月份开始(这已经是公开信息),埃隆已经开始将他那些开发不同芯片架构的团队合并成一个团队,专注于打造一个超级芯片。说我智商低也行,但我立刻想到的是钢铁侠胸口那种闪闪发光的玻璃。我在想象一个全能核心,基本上可以为任何东西供电,从他们的机器人出租车到正在宣传的擎天柱机器人等等。

So what he's referencing here is the current setup for Tesla and all the devices and machines that they build, is it all requires different chips with slightly different architectures. Right? And as you mentioned earlier, Josh, since kind of like August, at least that's been public knowledge, he's he being Elon has started merging all of his teams that are building these different kind of chip architectures into one team to focus on creating one mega chip and call me a low IQ person. But the thing that immediately pops into my head is the iron man kind of like sparkling glass that's in the center of his chest. I'm thinking of this all powerful core that basically can power anything from his robotaxis to his Optimus Prime robots, which are being teased and stuff like that.

Speaker 0

我认为这非常强大。内部构建这将是一项巨大的投资,可能也是非常冒险的尝试,但可能没有人比埃隆更适合这项工作了。我的意思是,乔什,你也这么认为吗?还是我现在有点过于幻想脑了?

And I think that that is super powerful. Building that in house is gonna be a huge investment and probably a very risky endeavor, but probably there's no one better for the job than Elon. I mean, Josh, do do you think similarly, or am I kind of, like, being too much in my fantasy brain right now?

Speaker 2

不。不。不。没错。没错。

No. No. No. That's right. That's right.

Speaker 2

他们会做到的。他们会做到的。这将是非凡的。AI五在原始计算能力方面将会非常强大,比AI四强大约八倍。我相信,被宣传为真正改变游戏规则的是AI六。

They're going to do it. They're going to do it. It's going to be remarkable. AI five is going to be pretty great in terms of raw compute, about eight times more powerful than AI four. AI six, I believe, is what has been teased as being the real game changer.

Speaker 2

那才是我们将真正看到世界开始转变的地方。那很可能就是与擎天柱一起在马斯克那里的那个。那将是你在世界各地都有全功能机器人出租车的时候。我确实认为我可能有一点不同意,即我不确定它是否是英伟达杀手,或者是否会从英伟达那里夺取任何市场份额,除了特斯拉给英伟达的订单之外。因为如果你是一家公司,你真正想要的只是GPU,你真正想要的只是计算能力和智能。所以,如果特斯拉能够创造无限的数量,如果他们能够垂直扩展并创造出比他们能从英伟达购买的更多的芯片,他们很可能只会留给自己用。

That's where we're really gonna see the world start to shift. That's probably gonna be the one at Masquel with Optimus. That's gonna be the one where you have full robotaxis all around the world. I do think that I might disagree in one point, in the sense that I don't know if it's an NVIDIA killer, or if it's going to take any sort of market share from NVIDIA, outside of just the sales that Tesla gives to NVIDIA, because if you're if you're a company, all you really want is GPUs, and all you really want is compute and intelligence. So if Tesla's able to create an infinite amount, if they're able to scale this vertically and create more than they're able to buy from NVIDIA, they'll probably just keep them for themselves.

Speaker 2

所以也许英伟达会失去特斯拉的采购订单,但我看不出特斯拉有任何理由实际将它们卖给其他人,因为拥有如此强大的计算能力在一个屋檐下,并且使其效率最大化,好处太大了。所以他们不仅会有多得多的芯片,而且这些芯片的能效、功率效率都会高得多,所有方面都会变得好很多很多。

So maybe Nvidia loses the purchase orders from Tesla, but I don't see any reason for Tesla to actually sell them to anybody else, because it's such a benefit to have that much compute power under one roof, and for it to be maximally efficient. So not only are they gonna have a ton more chips, but the chips are gonna be a lot more energy efficient, power efficient, like all of the the things will just be much, much better.

Speaker 0

所以我明白你的观点。我认为我之所以会反对这一点,是因为埃隆似乎表现出一种行为模式:如果某样东西没有按照他那种完美的规格来建造,他就会非常恼火,然后直接自己内部建造。对吧?如果他无法以任何方式外包的话。我们上周报道时就看到了这一点,星链收购了一家公司,这基本上让他们获得了疯狂的频谱宽带接入,现在将允许他所有最终将在太空中部署的卫星,通过激光向我们的手机传输信号,无论你在哪里都能获得优质5G和互联网接入。

So so I see your point of view. I think why I would argue against that is Elon seems to exhibit a behavior where if something isn't built to his kind of perfect specification, he gets super annoyed and just builds it in house. Right? If he can't, like, outsource that in any way. We saw that last week when we covered, Starlink's, acquisition of a company which basically gives them access to crazy spectrum broadband, which will now allow all his satellites, which he's eventually gonna be, releasing in space to beam down lasers to our cell phones and get access to premium five g and Internet access wherever the hell you are.

Speaker 0

对吧?如果你还没看那期节目,一定要去看看。所以我感觉他可能会恼火到直接全力以赴,直击英伟达的要害,但我同意。如果没有必要的商业理由,他可能不会这么做。

Right? You If haven't seen that episode, definitely go and check that out. So I have a feeling that he might get annoyed enough to to to just go whole hog and go for NVIDIA's throat, but I I agree. Like, if there's no necessary business means, he probably won't.

Speaker 2

是的。如果我是特斯拉,并且我拥有无限的计算能力,可以通过自己制造来生成,我会全部拿下。我想要所有的芯片。我不会把它们给任何人。这是我的新竞争优势。

Yeah. If I'm if I'm Tesla and I have infinite compute power that I can generate myself by making it, I'm taking all of it. I want all of the chips. I'm not giving that to anybody else. That's my new competitive advantage.

Speaker 2

和苹果类似,就像现在你在他们所有的移动设备上看到的那样,新iPhone的单线程处理器相当于手机中的M4 Max,这简直令人难以置信,如此小的设备中竟有如此高的效率和计算能力。所以特斯拉放弃这一点似乎不太可能,但是,天啊,当他们真正实现时,这将是一个巨大的突破。而且这甚至不是特斯拉本周唯一的新闻。我的意思是,你提到了MegaBlock,对吧?他们正在推进的新能源项目?你想不想解释一下这项新技术是怎么回事?

And similar to Apple, like, now you see it in all their mobile like, the new iPhone, a single threaded processor from the new iPhone is equivalent to the m four max in a phone, which is just unbelievable, like, efficiency and compute power in such a small device. So for app for Tesla to give that up seems unlikely, but, my god, what a huge unlock it's gonna be when they actually make it. And this isn't even the only Tesla news this week. I mean, you teased the the MegaBlock, right, the new energy thing that they have going on? Do you wanna just to kind of explain what's going on with this this new technology?

Speaker 2

因为对我来说,这甚至比芯片更令人兴奋。这相当酷。

Because this to me, this is even more exciting than the chips. This is pretty cool.

Speaker 0

好吧,乔希,我有点想让你替我解释一下。我的意思是,看看这些图片,就像直接摆在我面前一样。对吧?好的。好的。

Well, Josh, I kind of want you to explain it for me. I mean, look at these images that are, like, staring at me in the face. Right? Okay. Okay.

Speaker 0

所以让我给你我的,让我给你我的,左曲线观点。对吧?酷。这些看起来像是七十年代的变形金刚式的小玩意儿。看起来像一个老式数据中心。

So let me give you my, let me give you my, left curve, take. Right? Cool. These look like some nineteen seventies transformer type gizmos here. It looks like a old school data center.

Speaker 0

这看起来无聊得要命,乔希。我在嗯哼。我在看什么?兆瓦时是什么,为什么它很重要?

It looks boring as hell, Josh. What am I Mhmm. What am I staring at? What's a megawatt per hour, and why is it important?

Speaker 2

是的。好的。所以我们可以先定义几个对本部分很重要的概念,比如千瓦(缩写为kW),这是功率的速率单位。你可以把它想象成类似于英里每小时,但用于电力。然后我们有千瓦时(kWh),这是能量单位,类似于汽车的燃油加仑数。

Yeah. Okay. So we can maybe define a few things that are gonna be important for this segment, which is a kilowatt, which is shown k w, and that's the rate. It's kind of like you could think of each as, like, miles per hour, but for power. And then we have kilowatt hours, which are k w h, and that's the amount of energy, which is kind of like gallons of fuel for a car.

Speaker 2

接着还有兆瓦和兆瓦时,它们分别是千瓦和千瓦时的一千倍。所以就是千瓦、兆瓦、千瓦时、兆瓦时。简单的参照物比如:手机电池有10瓦时,也就是0.01千瓦时。电动汽车如特斯拉的电池有75千瓦时,依此类推。平均每个家庭每月使用约855千瓦时。

And then we have megawatts and megawatt hours, which are just a thousand times multiple on those. So kilowatts, megawatts, kilowatt hours, megawatt hours. And the easy anchors are kind of like a phone battery has 10 watt hours, which is point zero one kilowatt hours. A battery on an electric car, like a Tesla, has 75 kilowatt hours, and so on and so forth. So the average home uses about 855 of these kilowatt hours per month.

Speaker 2

这相当于每天约28.5千瓦时,约1.2千瓦的持续功耗。这就是我们理解这一切的基本框架。MegaBlock做了一件很酷的事情,他们将这些电池组模块化了。所以一个MegaBlock里面包含一个MegaPack。一个MegaPack内部存储了大量能量,并且能够大规模部署以支持电网。

That's about 28 and a half kilowatt hours per day, about 1.2 kilowatts of continuous draw. So that's kind of how we can frame all of this. MegaBlock did a really cool thing where they modularized these battery packs. So within a MegaBlock is a MegaPack. A MegaPack has a bunch of energy stored inside, and it is able to be deployed at scale to subsidize the grid.

Speaker 2

所以MegaBlock本质上就像是——你几乎可以把它想象成一个小型核反应堆,只是它实际上不自己发电,只是分配能量。当今电网的一个主要问题是我们发了很多电,但并没有充分利用。实际上有一张图表我想在这些视频中展示,如果你不介意调出来看看,它显示了我们使用的能量相对于生产量的比例。你看,在图表中,我们实际使用的能量占我们拥有能量的比例只有30%到50%。我们使用的能量如此之少,仅仅是因为电网效率不高。

So what the Mega Block is is really just you just you could think of like a small nuclear reactor almost, except it doesn't actually generate its own energy, it just distributes the energy. And a lot of the problem with the grid that we have today is that we're generating a lot of energy, we're just not using a lot of it. And there's actually a chart that I wanted to show in one of these these videos, if you don't mind pulling it up, which shows the amount of energy that we use relative to the amount that we produce. So you see, EJES, in the chart, the amount of energy that we're actually using relative to the amount that we have, it's like 30 to 50%. We're using such a low amount of energy, and that's just because we don't have good efficiency in the grid.

Speaker 2

它的工作原理,以及现在演示中这个人正在描述的,你可以看到它如何稍微上移。电网必须适应能源消耗的最高点,无论你在世界何处。所以如果能源需求出现巨大峰值,他们需要满足这个需求以避免停电,这意味着他们必须将大量资源集中到一个地方,而这不一定是最有效率的地方,只是那个在特定时间有高需求的地方。这些MegaPack和MegaBlock的作用就是补贴这种需求。

The way it works, and what the person in this presentation is describing right now, is you could see how it shifts up a little bit. The grid has to accommodate for the highest point of energy consumption, no matter where you are in the world. So if there's a huge blip in energy demand, they need to meet that energy demand so there's no blackouts, which means they have to pour a lot of resources into one place, and it's not necessarily the most efficient place. It's just the place that has a lot of demand draw at one specific time. What these Mega Packs do and what these Mega Blocks do is they subsidize that demand.

Speaker 2

我把MegaBlock和MegaPack搞混了,但基本上就是你可以将其中一个设备部署到一个区域,它能够以平滑我们刚才看到的那条波动曲线的方式来补贴电网。例如,当前AI数据训练中心面临的一个大问题就是几乎不可能获得所需的能量。这非常困难,不是因为能量不存在,而是因为我们没有有效的方式将其输送到地方。所以这些MegaBlock的存在就是为了存储能量,然后以一种平滑这些曲线的方式释放到电网上,让你能够常规化地优化更高的能源消耗。

So I'm getting all my Mega Blocks and Mega Packs confused, but basically what it is is you can drop one of these things into an area, and it can subsidize the grid in a way that will smooth out that bumpy line that we just saw. One of the big things and the big problems that we have with current AI data training centers, for example, is getting the amount of energy that is required to these places is nearly impossible. It's so hard, and it's not because the energy doesn't exist, it's because we don't have an efficient way to get it to the place. So these Mega Blocks exist as a way to store that energy and then release it onto the grid in a way that smooths out those curves and allows you to optimize for more energy consumption on a regular basis.

Speaker 0

这太酷了。我在想其他方法来理解通过这些设备传输的电力规模有多大。你提到这些Mega Bloks基本上将由这些叫做Mega Packs的东西组成,对吧?然后我就想,好吧,这些单独的mega packs到底有多强大?

That's super cool. I I was thinking of other ways that I can kind of, like, understand the magnitude of power that's gonna be kind of, like, fueled through one of these. And you mentioned that these Mega Bloks are basically gonna be composed of these things called Mega Packs. Right? And then I was like, well, okay, how powerful are these individual mega packs?

Speaker 0

我查了一下,仅一个mega pack就足以供应170个普通美国家庭大约一天的用电量,这太疯狂了,对吧?然后我就想,好吧,那这和一辆特斯拉汽车的电量相比如何呢?Josh,你知道你有一辆这样的车,相当于67个这样的mega pack。所以我试图思考,随着Elon不断将这些能源权衡整合成一个超级高效的东西,这些是如何叠加起来的。

And I was looking it up and one mega pack alone is enough, to power 170 average American homes for about a day, which is insane. Right? And then I was like, okay. Well, what is that compared to the amount of power that's in a single Tesla car, which, you know, you own one of these, Josh, and it's 67 of them. So I I'm trying to think about, like, how this kind of, like, stacks upon each other as, like, Elon, like, keeps kind of, like, rolling all these, like, energy trade offs into one super efficient thing.

Speaker 0

我设想了一个世界,你可以在沙漠中央或资源匮乏的地方建立一个城市,让那里的人们形成一个完全正常运转的社会,仅靠这些mega packs就能自给自足。这也让我想到,当我们最终实现熟练的太空旅行,登陆不同星球时,我们可能能够用一些这样的MegaPaks为所有这些提供动力,在我看来这超级超级酷。

And I kind of, like, envision a world where you can kind of create a city in the middle of a desert or somewhere where it's very resource scarce and have a fully functioning society, of people out there that can just kind of, like, survive on their own with these mega packs. It also gets me thinking about eventually when we end up, with, you know, proficient space travel and we end up landing on different planets and stuff, we could probably be able to power all of this from some of these MegaPaks, which is super, super cool in my opinion.

Speaker 2

是的。而且不要忽视我们仍然需要为这些MegaBlocks供电的事实。所以MegaBlocks只是电池,它们实际上不产生任何净新能源。但如果你能向这些区块供应能源,那么它们将处理所有其余的事情。

Yeah. And it's not not to discount the fact that we still need to power these MegaBlocks. So the MegaBlocks are just batteries. They don't actually generate any net new energy. But in the case that you can supply energy to these blocks, well, they will take care of all the rest.

Speaker 2

就像你说的,在基础设施不足或大量基础设施被摧毁的地方,你可以将这些插入发电源,它就会处理其余的事情。是的。这是一个非常酷的紧凑装置。我的意思是,四个mega packs组成一个区块,然后每个区块提供约20兆瓦时的电力。这是一个巨大的量,而他们能够实际部署这些设备的速度,我认为是最有趣的事情之一。

And like you said, eJets, where there's a place where there's not a lot of infrastructure available, where a lot of infrastructure gets wiped out, you could just plug these into a electricity generating source, and it will take care of the rest. Yep. And it's a really cool compact thing. I mean, it's four mega packs, they turn them into one block, and then that one block provides about 20 megawatt hours per block. And it's a it's a huge amount, and the speed at which they're able to actually deploy these, I think, is one of the most interesting things.

Speaker 2

在演示中他们说可以在20天内部署一个这样的设备,这意味着如果有足够多的设备,可以在20天内达到千兆瓦的能源。如果你还记得我们过去的节目,一些数据中心,如OpenAI的Giants数据中心或XAI的Colossus数据中心,它们实际上目标是一千兆瓦或两千兆瓦的能源,这是一个巨大的量,现在可以通过这些Mega Blocks非常非常快速地部署。所以这不仅是一种补贴电网的强大方式,还能解锁我们以前无法获得的能源。我认为很多时候我们说(我也曾犯过这个错误),我们没有足够的能源,现实是我们确实没有,但如果我们合理分配,我们可以拥有更多,因为我们几乎损失了一半的能源到电网的低效中,这有望随着时间的推移缓解这个问题。

Where in the presentation they said they can get one of these deployed in twenty days, and that means with enough of them, can get up to a gigawatt of energy in twenty days. And if you'll remember from our past episodes, a few of the data centers, OpenAI's Giants Data Center or XAI's Colossus Data Center, they're actually targeting for one gigawatt or two gigawatt of of energy, which is a huge amount that can now be deployed very, very quickly with these Mega Blocks. So it's a really powerful way of not only subsidizing the grid, but unlocking energy that we previously would not have access to. I think a lot of the times we say, and I've been guilty of this, we don't have enough energy, and the reality is we don't, but we could have a lot more if we just distribute it properly, because we are losing half of it, almost half of it, to just inefficiencies in the grid, and this will hopefully smooth that out over time.

Speaker 0

作为一个经常讨论AI的节目,特别是AI模型,我们提到过预训练一些这些模型需要多少能源和计算资源,对吧?嗯。我想知道是否有更高效的方法,可以使用这些Mega Blocks或Mega Packs(随你怎么称呼)来训练模型。前几天我看到有人在X上有一个很好的观点,他基本上说,在夜间通常更难训练或预训练一些这些AI模型,因为出于多种原因效率不高。

Being a show where we discuss AI a lot, particularly AI models, and we've mentioned how much energy and compute it requires to pretrain some of these models. Right? Mhmm. I'm wondering whether there are more efficient ways that we can train models using these Mega Blocks or these Mega Packs, whichever one you wanna consider. I saw someone kind of, like, have a a a good take on on X the other day where he basically said, at nighttime, typically, it's harder to train some of these or pre train some of these AI models because it's not as efficient at for many different reasons.

Speaker 0

例如,它可能会更酷。如果你能提供一些这些超级电池组或超级电池块,并持续训练某些模型,我认为我们会开始看到一些这样的东西,我想说的是巨像二号。我很好奇这是否与埃隆正在建设的新数据中心有任何重叠。它现在在哪里?在德克萨斯州吗?

For example, it it might be cooler. And if you could supply some of these mega packs or these mega blocks and have that continually train certain models, I think that we'll start to see some of these things, in colossus two was the point I was gonna make. And I'm curious whether there is any kind of like overlap with Elon's new data center that he's building out. Where is it now? Is it in Texas?

Speaker 0

在奥斯汀?

In Austin?

Speaker 2

我相信是在田纳西州。

I believe it's Tennessee.

Speaker 0

田纳西州。好的。酷。是的。我很好奇他是否可能开始将特斯拉正在建造的这些不同组件应用到他的AI驱动项目中。

Tennessee. Okay. Cool. Yeah. I'm I'm curious whether he might start implementing a bunch of these different components that he's building with Tesla into some of his AI driven efforts.

Speaker 2

是的。我确信他们会这样做。因为如果你还记得,虽然我忘了具体比例,但几乎所有的电力都来自超级电池组,而超级电池块只是它的增强版,这主要是因为电网电力并不总是完全平稳,当你同时启动和关闭10万个GPU时,能量波动非常大且迅速,他们需要一种方法来平滑这种波动,所以超级电池组解决了这个问题。现在有了超级电池块,就像是打了激素的版本。它能将巨大能量平稳输送到这些数据中心,不会搞砸任何一次训练运行。

Yeah. I'm sure they will be. Because if you remember, I think I forget what percentage of it was, but almost all the electricity that went into the Colossus one structure in, the first factory was from MegaPaks, and a MegaBlock is just a juiced up steroid version of that, and it's mostly because I mean, in their case, the the issue was that grid power isn't always completely smooth, and when you're powering up and down a 100,000 GPUs at once, the energy swings are very large, very quick, and they needed a way to smooth that out, so the MegaPack solved that. Now with the MegaBlock, it's just like that on steroids. It is a tremendous amount of energy that you can smooth out into these data centers that doesn't mess up a single training run.

Speaker 2

还有一个惊人的数据,他们提到这些可以在20天内部署完成,但200个这样的站点就能使美国总发电量增加20%,而无需建造任何新的热力发电机。这只是通过更好地利用我们已有的资源。所以如果这些东西开始大规模部署,它能对我们拥有的能源量和每千瓦成本产生巨大影响,更重要的是,比我们总是讨论但不需要新建太阳能农场或燃气轮机等能源来源更高效,因为我们已经有能源了。只是需要更高效地部署,这正是超级电池组所做的,这也是为什么它如此重要——如果大规模部署,我们可能会看到每千瓦成本大幅下降,而且它们可以非常快速地部署到数据中心。所以如果有人需要大量电力,就不必费尽周折去获取能源。

And there's this crazy stat, I mean, mentioned they can be rolled out in twenty days, but 200 of these sites would enable a 20% increase in total US electricity generation without building a single new thermal generator. It's just by better utilizing what we already have. So if these things start to get deployed at scale, it can seriously make a huge impact in the amount of energy that we have and the cost per kilowatt more efficient, more importantly, than we always talk about without actually needing to spin up more solar farms or gas turbines or whatever type of energy source we need because we have it. It's just a matter of just deploying it more efficiently, and that's exactly what Megapack does, and that's why it's really it's so important because if this gets rolled out at scale, we could see the cost per kilowatt drop very, very much, and also they can be rolled out to data centers very, very quickly. So in the case that someone needs a lot of power, well, don't have to go through hell and back to get some energy there.

Speaker 2

他们只需部署一个这样的大家伙就能搞定所有电力需求。好的,那么EJOS,我们已经讨论了为什么这如此重要,但我知道他们为实现这个目标做了一些相当惊人的事情,希望你能给我们详细介绍一下。

They could just roll one of these bad boys out and and juice it all up. Okay. So, EJOS, we kind of talked about why this is so important, but I understand that they did some pretty amazing things in order to achieve this that you can hopefully walk us through.

Speaker 0

好吧,听着。我是宝可梦的超级粉丝,主要原因是因为这些宝可梦卡片拥有一些史上最酷的数据,看起来我们的超级包三号也具备这些特性。所以现在介绍宝可梦卡片版的超级包三号:每小时可提供5兆瓦可用交流电能。它的重量轻松达到86,000磅。

Well, okay. Listen. I'm a massive fan of Pokemon, and the main reason why I was is because these Pokemon cards have some of the coolest stats ever, and it seems like we have it for the mega pack three. So introducing the Pokemon card version of the mega pack mega pack three, five megawatts per hour of usable, AC energy. Its weight is a casual 86,000 pounds.

Speaker 0

这个我觉得超级有趣。它的工作温度范围在零下40摄氏度到60摄氏度之间。基本上它对任何温度波动都免疫。你可以——

This I found super interesting. It operates, between minus 40 degrees Celsius to 60 degrees Celsius. So basically it's impervious to any temperature fluctuation. You can have-

Speaker 2

范围真大。

It's big range.

Speaker 0

反正基本都是工业化生产的。这,这是一个巨大的范围。超级包三号75%的质量是电池单元。鉴于上周刚做完苹果专题节目,乔什,这个数据基本上也适用于即将在几天后送达我大楼的新款iPhone Air。我好像看到这里正在形成一个趋势,挺酷的。

Pretty much manufactured anyway. That's, that's a, a humongous, range. And 75% of the mass of a Mega Pack three is battery cells. Now having come hot off, the Apple episode last week, Josh, where that stat basically rings true for the new iPhone air that's gonna be delivered to my, building in about a couple of days time. I I kinda see a trend, developing here, which is pretty cool.

Speaker 0

一个单独的模块就重如一辆赛博卡车。这些东西比我想象的要大得多。我原以为这可能像是一种宇航员可能会穿的喷气背包类的东西,但也许那是在第三代版本中。它将部分使用特斯拉在内华达州新建的、每小时7吉瓦时的LFP电池工厂的电池单元,该工厂将于2025年底上线。这很酷,因为我们在这个节目上已经多次谈论过这个新电池工厂,但我们从未真正理解过他将这些电池单元用于何处的策略。

A single module weighs as much as a Cybertruck. These things are much larger than I thought. Kinda thought this might be like a kind of like a jet pack type thing that astronauts might wear, but maybe that's in in in v three. And it will partly use battery cells from Tesla's new seven gigawatt an hour LFP battery facility in Nevada coming late online in 2025. That's cool because we've spoken about this new battery facility quite a bunch of times on this show, but we've never really kind of, like, understood maybe the strategy of where he's feeding a bunch of these cells.

Speaker 0

这很可能也是其主要输出用途之一。超级酷。我现在有点明白为什么埃隆今天早上要额外购买价值10亿美元的股票了,那新闻刚出来。挺搞笑的。

This is probably one of the major outlets, that will get there as well. Super cool. And I kind of understand now why Elon is buying a billion dollars worth of additional shares, this morning that news broke. Pretty hilarious.

Speaker 2

股价表现也相当不错。我觉得大家都很兴奋。这就是那种情况:是的。如果世界上有任何公司能实现这些事情中的任何一件,那都将是重大新闻,而现在有一家公司正处在所有这些事情的最前沿。我的意思是,AI五芯片是一项不可思议的工程壮举。

Stock price is doing pretty good as well. I think people are excited. This is one of those cases where Yes. If any company in the world were to achieve any of these things, it would be massive news, and there's one company that's at the forefront doing all of these things. I mean, the AI five chip is is an incredible feat of engineering.

Speaker 2

还没完成呢。他们还在完成设计过程,但假设他们像往常一样交付,可能会晚一些,但假设他们做到了,这将是项非凡的技术,它将驱动我们看到的第一批人形机器人四处行走。现在他们还在推出这个能源计划来补贴一直不稳定、维护不当的电网,看到这些创新的进展真是太棒了,不仅是他们推出的速度有多快,效果有多好。我的意思是,每一个新产品发布都是同类中最好的,我看不出短期内会有变化,所以现在是看涨的好时机。对特斯拉、对他们整个生态系统、对同样受益的x AI团队来说,都是看涨的好时机。

It's not done yet. They're finishing the design process, but assuming they do deliver like they always do, maybe it'll it'll probably be late, but assuming they do, it's gonna be a remarkable piece of tech, and it's gonna run a ton of the very first humanoid robots that we see walking around. And now they're also rolling out this this energy plan to subsidize the grid that's been faltering and hasn't been, like, upkept correctly, and it's just it's it's amazing to see the progress of some of these innovations and not only how quickly they're rolling it out, how effective they are. I mean, every single one of these new product rollouts is the best in class, and I don't see that changing anytime soon, so I it's a good time to be bullish. It's a good time to be bullish on Tesla, on the entire ecosystem around them, the x AI team who also benefits from this.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,你会开始看到很多垂直整合,它们如何相互促进,在这个美好的生态系统中互相帮助,这让我很兴奋。哥们儿,这真是好东西。这些东西一旦规模化运作,将会改变世界,尤其是超级模块。我的意思是,这太重大了。

I mean, there's a lot of all you start to see all of the vertical integration, how it all feeds into each other, and they all help each other in this this really nice ecosystem, and it gets me fired up. I mean, this is good stuff, dude. This is these things, when they work at scale, will change the world, particularly the mega block. I mean, this is this is huge.

Speaker 0

很长一段时间里,我觉得用电或者更确切地说,用太阳能电力为一切供电的想法似乎像个噱头。主要原因不是太阳能不够强大,而是它的分布太糟糕了。现在我们有了一个能明显更高效分配这种能源的工具,精确来说是50%的能源效率。所以,我对此超级兴奋。

For a long time, I think the idea of electricity or rather, like, solar powered electricity powering everything kinda seemed like a gimmick. And the major reason for that wasn't because solar wasn't powerful enough. It's because the distribution of it sucked. And now we have a vehicle that can clearly distribute this energy way more efficiently, 50%, of energy to be precise. So, I'm super excited about this.

Speaker 0

希望如果你在听这个,这对你是有教育意义的,你学到了关于埃隆·马斯克的新东西,他似乎现在每隔几周就发布颠覆性的技术,Josh。我非常看好特斯拉。它可能是我除了部分加密货币之外持有量最大的股票。

And hopefully, if you were listening to this, this was educational for you and you learned something new about Elon Musk, who seems to be releasing, paradigm shifting technologies every couple of weeks now, Josh. I'm very bullish, Tesla. It is probably the stock that I own in the largest quantity outside of some of my crypto stuff.

Speaker 2

哦,不错。好的。

Oh, nice. Okay.

Speaker 0

哦是啊。哥们儿,我怎么能不看涨呢?我们大概50%的节目都在讨论它。我很高兴。

Oh yeah. Dude, how can I not be bullish? We talk about it about 50% of episodes. Am. I'm glad.

Speaker 0

嗯,你

Well, you

Speaker 2

永远不知道谁真正参与其中。对吧?

never know who's actually on board. Right?

Speaker 0

比如,我很高兴听到这个。不,我是...我是...我已经全身心投入其中了。所以我超级兴奋,也很期待看到未来的发展。但再说一次,如果你觉得有更好的话题值得我们讨论,如果埃隆发布了什么或正在谈论什么我们遗漏了的内容,你觉得因为我们特斯拉持仓太重而没覆盖到,或者有需要介绍的竞争对手,请联系我们。

Like, I'm glad to hear this. No. I am I am I've got my skin, teeth, and bones in the game. So I'm I'm super pumped about this and I'm excited to see where it goes. But again, if you think that there is a better topic that we could be discussing, if there's something that Elon has released or is talking about that we've missed and that you think we're we're not covering because our Tesla bags are consuming us and there's a competitor that needs to be described, reach out to us.

Speaker 0

我们的私信是开放的。评论区也是开放的。我们也喜欢听取反馈,特别是那些辛辣的、与我们意见相左的、想听不同观点的反馈。乔希和我,我们喜欢争论,但主要还是同意我们讨论的很多

Our DMs are open. Our comments are open. We also like hearing feedback, particularly the feedback that is spicy, that disagrees with us, that wants to hear different takes. Josh and I, we like to fight, but mainly we agree with a lot of the

Speaker 2

内容。

stuff that we discuss.

Speaker 0

我们讨论的都是自己喜欢的话题。如果你还想听其他内容,请随时联系我们。点赞、订阅、分享给你的朋友,我们下期再见。

We kind of discuss topics that we enjoy. And if there's anything else that you would like to hear about, please reach out. Like, subscribe, share with your friends, and we will see you on the next one.

Speaker 2

下期可能是关于Meta Connect。本周将有一期重要的硬件节目,千万别错过。会是很重磅的一期。太棒了。感谢大家观看。

Which will probably be Meta Connect. Big hardware episode coming this week, so don't don't miss it. It's gonna be a big one. Hell yeah. Thank you guys for watching.

Speaker 2

我们下期再见。

We'll see you guys in the next one.

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