"现金是垃圾，比特币才是数字黄金。" ——迈克尔·塞勒

听着，我今天想和你聊聊比特币。

Look, I wanna talk to you about Bitcoin today.

我想简单告诉你我第一次听说比特币的经过，因为这涉及到你的一位朋友。

I wanna briefly tell you when I first heard about Bitcoin because it involves a friend of yours.

2013年，我辞去银行业工作后正在做我的节目《伦敦真实》。

In 2013, I was doing my show London Real after I quit my job in banking.

实在受不了那份工作了。

Couldn't take it anymore.

当时我听说有个叫比特币的东西，就在推特上发文问：谁能给我讲讲这个工具？

And I'd heard about this thing called Bitcoin and I put out on Twitter, who's the one that can tell me about this instrument?

在伦敦有个名字反复被提及，就是麦克斯·凯泽。

And this one name came up in London and it was Max Kaiser.

经过几轮推特互动，我们互相试探摸底后，麦克斯来到了我在肖尔迪奇的厨房。

And so after a couple of tweets back and forth, as we called each other out and sized each other up, Max showed up in my kitchen here in Shoreditch.

当时我不知道我们会不会打起来，结果我们做了场直播。

And I didn't know if we were gonna have a fight or what, and we had a broadcast.

整整九十分钟，麦克斯给我恶补了比特币知识。

And for ninety minutes, Max schooled me on Bitcoin.

我记得当时以85英镑的价格买了两枚，还抱怨没有做市商，订单簿系统也不完善。

And I think I just bought two for £85 I was complaining, there was no market makers, the order book system.

麦克斯真的把这事讲透了。

And Max really laid it out.

这就是我第一次真正接触比特币的经历。

And that my first really experience with it.

那期节目现在还能看到，如今看来依然引人入胜。

And that episode is still up, it's fascinating to watch now.

然后我不知道该怎么处理它。

And then I didn't know what to do with it.

于是在2015年、17年和19年，安德烈亚斯·安东诺普洛斯回归后，总会向我们讲述正在发生的事，以及货币未来可能的样子。

And so in 2015, 'seventeen and 'nineteen, Andreas Antonopoulos came back and would always tell us about what was happening and what it could be in the future of money.

但再次强调，这并没有吸引到我。

But again, it didn't hook me.

直到今年我开始关注DeFi领域的动态时，才回想起90年代我在华尔街从事的工作。

And it wasn't until this year when I started looking at what was going on in DeFi that I got reminded about what I was doing on Wall Street in the '90s.

我当时就想，天啊这太疯狂了，因为我三十年前就在做这些事，而现在轮到别人了。

And I thought, wow, this is crazy because I used to do this thirty years ago and now other people are.

这些我们可以稍后再聊。

And we can talk about that stuff later.

说说你对比特币的经历吧，我知道你2013年就听说过它，但我觉得直到去年你才真正看清它。

Tell me about your experience with Bitcoin because I know you knew of it back in 2013, but I think it wasn't till last year where you really saw it.

在我的职业生涯中，我执掌MicroStrategy这家企业软件公司已有三十年。

In my professional life, I've run MicroStrategy, which is an enterprise software company for thirty years.

我是一家上市公司CEO。

And I'm a public company CEO.

我的大部分精力都消耗在与甲骨文、IBM、微软和SAP的竞争上，向全球客户推销企业软件。

And most of my mental energy was consumed by competing against Oracle and IBM and Microsoft and SAP and selling enterprise software to everybody on earth.

我的部分职责是管理财务，MicroStrategy的财务策略主要是非常保守的传统企业策略——持有现金和短期主权债务。

Part of what I did was run a treasury and our treasury and micro strategy primarily consisted of a very conservative conventional corporate strategy of hold cash and short dated sovereign debt.

这就是我长期以来的做法。

And that's what I did for a long time.

偶尔，当我们动用那些国库现金时，我们会回购自家股票。

And occasionally, when we take that treasury cash, we buy our own stock back.

但我们没有用它来推进其他投资计划。

But we didn't pursue any other investment agenda with it.

在我的私人生活中，我是一名私人投资者，主要投资科技领域。

In my private life, I was a private investor and there I was a tech investor.

我买过苹果、亚马逊、脸书和谷歌的股票。

I bought Apple, I bought Amazon, I bought Facebook, I bought Google.

我曾撰文解释为何投资这些公司以及移动浪潮。

I wrote about why I bought those things and the mobile wave.

但简而言之，我认为本世纪最佳的投资理念是：投资那些正在将文明中的产品、服务或某种理念数字化的网络，然后耐心等待。

But the summary is the best investment ideas of the century, I believe, are you buy into a digital network that is dematerializing a product or a service or some kind of idea in a civilization and you wait.

比如脸书将友谊数字化，苹果将你手中能握持的一切数字化。

Like Facebook dematerialized friendship and Apple dematerialized everything you can hold in your hand.

它让钱包、相机和照片数字化，谷歌让信息、书籍和视频数字化，亚马逊则让实体店面数字化。

It dematerialized wallets and cameras and photos, and Google dematerialized information and books and video, and Amazon dematerialized storefronts.

这些实现数字化的网络在互联网时代蓬勃发展。

And so those digital networks that dematerialize things, they grew through the web era.

这个故事我们都耳熟能详。

And we know that story.

当移动时代来临，所有这些软件都移动化了。

And then when the mobile era came along, all that software mobilized.

很快，你手中就拥有了名为亚马逊的商店和名为iBooks的图书馆。

And pretty soon you had a store in your hand called Amazon and you had a library in your hand called iBooks.

你手中还拥有了名为Facebook的友谊和人际关系。

And you had friendship and relationships in your hand called Facebook.

你手中还有一台相机，你知道的，可能每部移动设备都如此，还有录音机之类的功能，苹果产品就是如此。

And you had a camera in your hand, you know, and probably every other mobile device, a tape recorder, the like, and Apple.

我就这样度过了大约十年。

And I kind of rode that way for a decade.

2020年时，我知道比特币的存在。

And in 2020, I knew Bitcoin was around.

我知道有些人用比特币做这做那。

I knew some people used Bitcoin for something or other.

我还觉得能在市场上押注谁会赢得选举挺酷的。

I also you know, thought it was kind of cool that you could go on markets and bet on who's gonna win an election.

如果你还记得这事的话。

If you remember that.

我觉得在线扑克也很酷。

And I thought online poker was cool.

我觉得有很多很酷的东西，但我把它们归类为新鲜玩意儿。

And I thought there were a lot of things that were cool, but I classified them as novelties.

我把苹果、亚马逊、Facebook、谷歌归类为基于数字网络的优质投资。

I classified Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google as good investments based on a digital network.

而我的专业做法是投资短期国债。

And my professional approach was I invest in short dated treasuries.

2020年3月疫情爆发时，货币供应量开始以三倍于正常速度增长。

Then March 2020 hit, the money supply started expanding at three times the normal rate.

我们经历了封锁，导致商业街关闭，而华尔街却呈现V型复苏。

We had lockdowns, which shut down Main Street, and we had a V shaped recovery in Wall Street.

于是在3月至6月间，当我目睹华尔街复苏时，如果你观察过去12个月的标准普尔指数和股市走势，就会发现它一路向右上方攀升。

And so between March and June, as I watched Wall Street recover, and if you look at the S and P index and the stock market for the past twelve months, it's just straight up into the right.

仿佛根本不存在危机。

It's like there is no crisis.

但如果你生活在商业街，那里的经济至今仍未恢复。

And if you're living on Main Street, Main Street hasn't recovered.

邮轮业尚未重启，航空业遭受重创，酒店业元气大伤，许多制造业举步维艰，劳动力短缺问题严重，供应链危机普遍存在，物资也出现短缺。

I mean, the cruise lines aren't up and running, the airlines have been impaired, the hotels are impaired, lots of manufacturing business are struggling, there's rampant problems in getting labor, there's rampant supply chain issues and there's shortages.

华尔街复苏与商业街萧条之间的这种割裂，让我开始质疑自己对货币的认知。

And so that dichotomy between the recovery of Wall Street and the impairment of Main Street caused me to question my premises about money.

我首先质疑的是对财政政策的理解。

I started by questioning my premises about treasury policy.

布莱恩，我持有5.5亿美元现金，但收益率却是0%。

Brian, I had $550,000,000 in cash and it was yielding 0% interest.

当美联储表示'我们甚至没考虑过加息'时，传递的信息就是：未来四年，你这5亿美元只能获得零利率，而且必须接受。

And when the Fed said, We're not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates, the message was, For the next four years, you'll get zero percent interest on $500,000,000 and you'll like it.

随后我开始思考，同时观察华尔街的复苏。

Then I started thinking, then I watched Wall Street recover.

如果看标准普尔指数过去12个月的表现，布莱恩，它实际上涨了37%。

And if the S and P If we actually look at S and P performance over the last twelve months, it's up 37%, Brian.

假设你拥有十亿美元并以现金形式持有，那么你的收益是0%。

And so if you had a billion dollars and you held it in cash, you're up 0%.

如果你投资于标普指数，那么你的收益是37%。

And if you held it in S and P index, you're up 37%.

如果你将这十亿美元现金用于购买黄金，那么你的收益是负72个基点。

If you took the same billion dollars of cash and you bought gold, you're up minus 72 basis points.

也就是说你的收益是0%。

That is you're up 0%.

如果你投资比特币，那么你的收益是269%。

If you invested in Bitcoin, you're up 269%.

那么世界试图传达给你的信息是什么？

So what is the message, right, that the world's trying to tell you?

那就是我们扩大了货币供应量。

It's that we expanded the money supply.

如果你的长期储蓄策略是将钱以美元或欧元形式存入银行账户，那么你的钱实际上损失了约37%的购买力，对吧？

If you're holding, if your long term savings strategy is putting your money in a bank account as dollars or euros, then your money lost, call it 37% of its purchasing power, right?

如果你将资金投入ETF或标普指数，你的钱保住了购买力。

If you put your money into an ETF or S and P index, your money held its purchasing power.

如果你将资金投入比特币，它获得了更强的购买力。

If you put your money into Bitcoin, it gained purchasing power.

所以作为一个企业受托人，我手握五亿美元资金。

So as a corporate fiduciary, I got half a billion dollars.

我该怎么做？

What am I gonna do?

既然知道货币在贬值而利率为零，我可不想持有现金，这相当于实际收益为负。

Well, I don't wanna hold it in cash when I know that the currency is being devalued and the interest rate is zero, that's a negative real yield.

如果用CPI计算负实际收益，你可能会对自己说，哦，实际收益只是负2%，或者现在CPI是5%，实际收益就是负5%。

If you calculate negative real yield based on CPI, you might say to yourself, Oh, it's only minus 2% negative real yield, or minus the CPI now is like 5%, minus 5% negative real yield.

但如果根据资产通胀来计算通胀率，一篮子公司的资产通胀率高达37%。

But if you calculate inflation based upon asset inflation, the asset inflation rate for a portfolio of companies is 37%.

所以你的实际收益是负37%。

So your negative real yield is minus 37%.

72法则告诉我们，按照这个速度，两年内你的钱就会缩水一半。

And the rule of 72 tells you that you lose half your money in two years at that rate.

哇。

Wow.

十年内你会损失90%的资金。

You lose 90% of your money in ten years.

所以当实际收益跌到负37%时，Brian，就像你把我的按摩浴缸水温调到250度，我立马跳了出来。

So when the negative real yield got to minus 37%, Brian, it's kind of like you crank the temperature up in my hot tub to two fifty degrees and I jumped out.

那么我是怎么发现比特币的呢？

So how did I discover Bitcoin?

答案是直到2020年3月这对我都不是个问题。

The answer is it wasn't a problem for me until March 2020.

它曾是个机会，但我有其他选择，而且这个机会并不足以让我改变人生轨迹去投入其中。

It was an opportunity, but I had other opportunities and it wasn't a clear enough opportunity that I would change my life in order to go do this thing.

但在2020年3月，大型科技股行情走到了尽头。

But in March 2020, the big tech trade came to its end.

亚马逊股价曾达到每股3200美元。

Amazon was $3,200 a share.

我从每股300美元一直写到它涨到3200美元。

Well, I wrote it from $300 a share to $3,200 a share.

它不可能再从那个基础上再涨10倍或20倍。

It wasn't gonna go up by a factor of 10 or 20 from there.

苹果、亚马逊、Facebook、谷歌是被公认的数字垄断企业和主导网络，到2020年3月至6月期间，就连22岁的出租车司机都能告诉你这些是赢家。

Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google were acknowledged digital monopolies and dominant networks, every 22 year old taxi cab driver could have told you that those were the winners by March to June 2020.

那么你会把钱投到哪里？

So where are you gonna put your money?

我的意思是，大型科技公司不是什么引人注目的新事物，而是已被理解的事物。

I mean, big tech is not like the compelling new thing, it's the understood thing.

布莱恩，作为一名科技投资者，我的策略是投资那些全世界都需要、无人能阻挡、但99%的人都不理解的东西。

My strategy as a tech investor, Brian, is you buy something that everybody in the world needs, nobody can stop, and 99% of the world doesn't understand.

这就是2011年或2012年的Facebook，或是谷歌或亚马逊的定义。

And that would be the definition of Facebook in 2011 or 2012 or Google or Amazon.

如果你回顾2010年，就能看出苹果、亚马逊、Facebook、谷歌势不可挡。

If you go back to 2010, you could see Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google are unstoppable.

人人都需要它们。

Everybody needs them.

然而华尔街98%的人都会告诉你，当苹果股价翻倍时，你应该卖掉一些锁定利润，并分散投资到惠普、IBM等其他公司。

And yet 98% of the people on Wall Street would have told you when Apple doubles, you should sell some, take off the top, and you should diversify into HP and IBM and other.

当科技股占你投资组合超过20%时，你应该减持科技股，转向非科技领域进行分散投资。

And when technology is more than 20% of your portfolio, you should sell technology and you should diversify into non technology.

因此，在这种情况下，多元化意味着卖出赢家买入输家。

So the diversification in that case is selling the winner to buy the losers.

当然，愚蠢的是苹果公司占据了全球每家手机公司150%的利润。

And of course, the idiocy is Apple became 150% of the profit of every mobile phone company in the world.

世界上其他公司都在亏本与苹果竞争，而苹果赚走了所有的钱，明白吗？

Everybody else in the world lost money to compete with Apple, which made all the money, okay?

这就是为什么你不能从行业霸主身上分散投资。

That's why you don't diversify from the category killer.

亚马逊赢了，沃尔玛保持第二，而世界上其他零售商在那十年间都输了。

Amazon won, Walmart stayed that, you know, was like a number two, and every other retailer in the world lost in that decade timeframe.

所以在这个行业内卖出赢家买入输家毫无意义。

So selling the winner to buy the losers within this sector doesn't make any sense.

华尔街投资者有种傲慢和愚蠢的说法：'你的科技股敞口太大了'。

And there's a certain arrogance and foolishness from a Wall Street investor that says, You have too much tech exposure.

你上过MIT，我也上过MIT。

You went to MIT, I went to MIT.

我观察到的是，纵观历史，从迦太基人对阵罗马人开始，所有成长型公司都是科技公司。

What I observed is every growth company in history of the world, going back to the Carthaginians versus the Romans, they were all tech companies.

当罗马人击败迦太基人时，他们靠的是技术。

When the Romans beat the Carthaginians, they did it with technology.

你看，当卡夫、亨氏、标准石油、卡内基钢铁、安德鲁·梅隆和美国铝业公司成功时，它们都是科技公司。

You know, when Kraft and Heinz and Standard Oil and Carnegie Steel and Andrew Mellon and Aluminum Company of America, when they won, they were technology companies.

AT&T和通用电气也曾是科技公司。

AT and T, General Electric were technology companies.

通用汽车曾是一家科技公司。

General Motors was a technology company.

从未有过不依赖技术就能将小事做成大事的企业家。

There was never such thing as an entrepreneur that took a small thing and made it into a huge thing without technology.

所以只有那些忘记公司如何建立的第三代投资者才会认为它不是科技公司。

So it's only the third generation of investors that have forgotten how the company was built that think it's a non technology company.

归根结底，当某事物不再颠覆世界时，其增长就会放缓，最终形成垄断。

So bottom line, you know, something is no longer disrupting the world, its growth slows down, it becomes a monopoly.

2020年3月或4月时我说过：大型科技股交易已是拥挤交易，持有现金是愚蠢的做法。

When I got to March or April 2020, what I said was, The big tech trade is a crowded trade, and holding cash is a foolish idea.

主权债务已不再具有储值功能。

Sovereign debt is no longer a store of value.

债券市场已经失灵。

Bonds are broken.

我们正处于信贷周期的尾声。

We're at the end of a credit cycle.

我的股票每股90美元。

My stock was $90 a share.

布莱恩，我每股持有60美元现金。

I had $60 a share in cash, Brian.

整个公司每股价值30美元。

The entire company was worth $30 a share.

当我询问投资者时，他们说：现金就是垃圾，对吧？

And the investors, when I asked them said, Cash is trash, right?

把它还给我们。

Give it back to us.

于是我遭遇了这场存在主义危机。

And so I hit this existential crisis.

我不得不去学习。

I had to go study.

我遇到了问题。

I had a problem.

我需要一个解决方案。

I needed a solution.

而我们当时面临两个选择。

And we were gonna take one, two paths.

我们要么退还所有资本，这样每股股票价值将维持在30到60美元之间，但公司会失去资本基础，年增长率为0%，还要与亚马逊、脸书、苹果和谷歌竞争。

We either had to give back all the capital and we would've had 30 to $60 a share worth of the stock in a company with no capital base that was growing 0% a year, competing against Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Google.

祝你好运吧。

Good luck with that.

要么我们得把钱投资到能在货币通胀环境下保值或创造价值的项目上。

Or we had to invest the money in something which was gonna hold value or create value in a monetary inflation environment.

于是我们开始寻找。

And so we did a search.

我们考虑过黄金。

We considered gold.

我们考虑过科技股。

We considered tech stocks.

我已经描述过为何我认为科技股是个拥挤的交易领域。

I already described where I thought tech stock was a crowded trade.

这已经是过去式了。

It was already done.

在十九世纪，购买黄金是个好主意。

Buying gold was a good idea in the nineteenth century.

到了二十世纪，黄金就显得太慢了。

In the twentieth century, it's too slow.

进入二十一世纪后，黄金看起来已经过时了。

In the twenty first century, it's looking antiquated.

我说，我想要类似黄金的东西，但希望是建立在大型科技网络上的数字黄金。

Well, I said, I want something like gold, but I want digital gold on a big tech network.

如果我能将重达3万磅、价值十亿美元的黄金数字化会怎样？

What if I could take a billion dollars of gold that weighs 30,000 pounds?

如果我能将这些黄金非物质化，使其以光速传输且毫无重量会怎样？

What if I could take that, dematerialize that gold so it moves at the speed of light, It weighs nothing.

如果我用开放协议包装它，使其可编程会怎样？

What if I wrapped it with an open protocol so I could program it?

如果我能编程让iPhone或网络服务器在这块数字黄金上每秒处理百万笔交易，以光速移动并赋予其智能会怎样？

And what if I could program my iPhone or my web server to do a million transactions a second on the block of digital gold, move it at the speed of light and make it brilliant, smart.

然后我引入摩尔定律，它就会变得越来越智能、快速和强大。

And then I plug Moore's law into it and it just kept getting smarter and faster and stronger.

过去二十年所有成功企业的秘诀——谷歌就是如此，越来越智能、快速和强大。

Well, I mean, the secret to everything that worked in the last twenty years, Google, smarter, faster, stronger.

谷歌地图，它能知道车流的方向。

Google maps, it knows which way the traffic goes.

它能识别交通堵塞。

It knows it's a traffic jam.

它会为你绕开拥堵路段。

It routes you around the traffic jam.

它还会和你对话。

It'll talk to you.

它几乎能替你开车。

It'll nearly drive your car for you.

这可比Ram McNally地图强多了。

It's a better idea than Ram McNally maps.

所以Ram McNally值5千万或5亿，而谷歌凭借地图就值500亿，对吧？

That's why Ram McNally is worth 50,000,000 or 500,000,000 and Google's worth 50,000,000,000 with Google maps, right?

就凭这一点。

That one thing.

你的iPhone更智能、更快、更强。

Your iPhone's smarter, faster, stronger.

iBooks，更智能、更快、更强。

IBooks, smarter, faster, stronger.

Apple Music，更智能、更快、更强。

Apple Music, smarter, faster, stronger.

所以我想，给我一块在更智能更快更强的科技网络上的非物质化黄金吧。

So I thought, give me a block of dematerialized gold on a big tech network that's smarter, faster, stronger.

我在哪里能找到那个？

Where do I find that?

加密货币。

Crypto.

加密货币创造了数字黄金，而比特币本质上就是大型技术网络上的数字黄金，但现在它满足了我所有的标准。

Crypto created digital gold and Bitcoin is in essence, digital gold on a big tech network, but now it checked all my criteria.

这是全世界每个人都需要的、没人能阻止、也没人真正理解的东西。

It's something everybody in the world needs, nobody can stop, and nobody understands.

在2020年3月，可以说你入场很早。

In March 2020, you could say, you got there early.

马克斯·凯泽会告诉你，是啊，你本应该在2013年就搞明白的。

Max Kaiser will tell you, Yeah, you should have figured it out back in 2013.

但关键是到2020年时，它已经是个价值2000亿美元的东西了。

But the point is by 2020, it was a $200,000,000,000 thing.

世界上99%的人并不真正理解它。

99% of the world doesn't really understand it.

在一个去中心化的开放货币协议上，如何理解数字财产？过去五千年里没有任何事物能与之类比。

How do you understand digital property on an open monetary protocol that's decentralized when there is no metaphor, there is no analogy to it in the last five thousand years.

一个全新的事物。

A new thing.

没人理解它。

Nobody understood it.

但每个人都需要它，对吧？

Everybody needs it, right?

它是去中心化的。

It's decentralized.

没人能阻止它，对吧？

Nobody's gonna stop it, right?

他们可能会减缓它的发展。

They might slow it down.

他们可能会散布恐慌情绪，但那正是美妙的三重检验标准。

They might FUD it, but that was the beautiful triple check criteria.

我当时说，我面临一个5亿美元的问题。

And I said, I have a $500,000,000 problem.

我想我要买一些。

I think I'm gonna buy me some.

这就是我发现比特币的经过。

So that's how I discovered Bitcoin.

这就是为什么它在2020年成为我世界里最重要的事情。

And that's why it became the most important thing in my world in the 2020.