西方网络与中国网络

不，让我们以中国作为结尾，因为这是个巨大的未知数。

No, let's finish on China because that's a huge wild card.

未来二十年那里会发生什么？

What happens there in the next twenty years?

存在西方网络和中国网络。

There's a Western net and there's a China net.

西方网络包括西欧、美国和自由世界，围绕美元、英语、西方法律和西方技术运转。

The Western net is Western Europe and The United States and the free world, and it revolves around the US dollar, the English language, Western law, and Western technology.

它由谷歌、脸书、推特、苹果、美国最高法院（使用英语）和亚马逊主导。

And it is dominated by Google and Facebook and Twitter and Apple and the US Supreme Court in English and Amazon.

过去二十年来这一体系一直在加强。

And that's been getting stronger for the past twenty years.

事实上，它随着互联网开始形成，并且变得越来越强大。

In fact, mean, it started to form with the internet and it just got stronger and stronger.

然后就是中国的防火墙。

And then there's the Great Wall Of China.

在防火墙后面，他们屏蔽了推特。

And behind the Great Wall Of China, they block Twitter.

他们屏蔽了脸书。

They block Facebook.

他们屏蔽了谷歌。

They block Google.

对于苹果公司，他们保持着一种爱恨交加的关系。

Apple, they have a love hate relationship with.

但他们封锁了大多数其他东西。

But they block most of these other things.

他们有自己的微博、微信、阿里巴巴和支付宝。

And they have their own Weibo and WeChat and Alibaba and Alipay.

他们不想要谷歌支付。

They don't want Google Pay.

他们也不想要苹果支付，对吧？

They don't want Apple Pay, right?

他们拥有人民币、中文、中国法律和中国文化。

And they have the CNY, the RMB, and they have the Chinese language, and they have Chinese law, and they have the Chinese culture.

这就是中国的影响力范围。

So there's the China sphere of influence.

还有西方的影响力范围。

There's the Western sphere of influence.

这种格局已经持续相当长时间了，超过十年，可能有二十年，而且越来越强化。

That has been that way for quite a while, more than a decade, probably twenty years, it's been getting stronger and stronger.

虽然一直如此，但在互联网革命后我们才明显注意到，因为你看到了VPN、防火墙之类的东西，对吧？

It was always that way, but it became visible to us after the internet revolution because you saw the VPNs and the firewalls and the like, right?

信息流动是受控的。

There is a controlled flow of information.

你刚才看到的中国打压行动导致了中国资本外流。

What you just saw with the China crackdown is it drove a China exodus.

这导致了比特币挖矿和比特币持有从中国大规模撤离。

It drove an exodus of Bitcoin mining and Bitcoin holdings from China.

这是过去四年里逐渐形成的趋势。

That has been gradually coming for the past four years.

而这次在大约四到六周的时间内出现了相当激进的加速。

And this was a pretty aggressive acceleration of that in about a four week to six week timeframe.

这意味着什么？

What does that mean?

这意味着在中国比特币网络上持有数十亿美元数字资产的人们不得不抛售。

It means that people holding billions of dollars of digital property on a Bitcoin network in China, they had to sell it.

他们不得不匆忙以折扣价强制平仓。

They had to force liquidate it in a hurry at a discount.

赢家是那些买入比特币的人。

The winners were the people that bought the Bitcoin.

我的公司以37,000美元的价格买入了价值5亿美元的比特币。

My company bought 500,000,000 worth of Bitcoin at 37,000.

我本愿意出双倍价格。

I would've paid double.

我甚至愿意出三倍价格。

I would've paid triple.

我们本来就要买的。

We were gonna buy it.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以我们才是受益者。

So we're the beneficiaries.

卖给我的人当时是迫于压力匆忙出手的。

The people that sold it to me, they had to sell it under pressure, in a hurry.

当时比特币矿机设备占整个挖矿市场的一半份额。

And then the Bitcoin mining equipment, the Bitcoin miners had half the mining market.

年产值高达100亿美元。

It was worth $10,000,000,000 a year.

他们当时正以每年100%的速度增长。

They were growing at a 100% a year.

对他们来说本可能价值万亿美元。

It would've been worth a trillion dollars to them.

他们不得不离开中国。

They had to leave China.

比特币矿工网络是比特币的安全保障网络。

The Bitcoin mining network is the security network of Bitcoin.

现在它正迁移到西伯利亚、冰岛、加拿大、美国、德克萨斯州、萨尔瓦多、阿根廷和非洲。

Now it's going to Siberia and Iceland and Canada and The US and Texas and El Salvador and Argentina and Africa.

这对世界其他地区是有益的。

It's a benefit to the rest of the world.

这对中国来说是损失。

It's a loss to China.

但你知道，就像谷歌地图一样，中国的损失就是世界其他地区的收益，明白吗？

But you know, so is Google Maps, a loss to China and a benefit to the rest of the world, you know?

所以当中国人发现DD网络在追踪遥测数据时，就将其关闭了。

So when the Chinese found out that DD was tracking telemetry of the DD network and they shut them down.

好吧，这是个负面消息，但安卓系统会追踪遥测数据。

Okay, well, that's a negative, but Android tracks telemetry.

如果你关闭它导致无法追踪遥测数据，就得不到指导驾驶的AI，只能自行开发。

And if you shut it down and you can't track telemetry, you don't get the AI that tells you how to drive and you have to develop it yourself.

所以我们的观点是要自主完成这一切，中国人基本上已经将数字资产推向比特币化。

So the view is we're just gonna do all that ourself, The Chinese have basically driven digital property to form Bitcoin out.

他们会尝试用数字人民币替代，但这不是用数字资产替代实体资产。

They will try to replace it with the Chinese CBDC, but they're not replacing property with digital property.

他们是在用数字货币替代数字资产。

They're replacing digital property with digital currency.

这种数字货币每年贬值20%到25%。

The digital currency is losing 20 to 25% of its value a year.

他们根本不拥有数字资产。

They don't have any digital property.

数字资产网络的控制权将转移到西方。

Control of the digital property network is gonna shift to the West.

这对我们有利。

Good for us.

对西方有利。

Good for the West.

对美式价值观有利。

Good for the American way.

对美元和世界储备货币地位有利，因为这意味着——我坚信最终会有50亿人接入西方网络。

Good for the US dollars and reserve currency of the world, because what that means is, I gotta believe 5,000,000,000 people end up on the Western net.

中国互联网已有十五亿用户。

There's already one and a half billion on the China net.

我猜如果再增加十亿，关键问题在于：中国会是二十五亿而西方五十五亿，还是中国二十亿西方六十亿？

And I guess if they get another billion, the big question is, is it two and a half billion on China and five and a half billion on the Western or is it two and six?

大概就是这类情况。

It's something like that.

但我押注西方互联网，布莱恩。

But I bet on the Western net, Brian.

因为谷歌是国家资产，苹果是国家资产，所有应用公司都是国家资产。

Because Google is a national asset and Apple is a national asset, but all the application companies, they're all national assets.

如果你要在市场经济、分散式资本主义与熊彼特式的创造性破坏之间下注，或者押注中央计划经济，最终你会选择市场经济——因为它符合达尔文法则。

And if you got a bet between the market economy and decentralized capitalism and creative destruction, ala Schumpeter, or you bet on central planning economy, ultimately you bet on the market economy because it's Darwinian.

世界上没有一个受过教育的人会认为应该让一群大学辍学生来掌管美国科技产业。

There's not a single educated person in the world that would've put a bunch of college dropouts in charge of the tech industry in The US.

比尔·盖茨是辍学生。

Bill Gates is a dropout.

马克·扎克伯格是辍学生。

Mark Zuckerberg is a dropout.

拉里·埃里森是辍学生。

Larry Ellison is a dropout.

史蒂夫·乔布斯是辍学生。

Steve Jobs is a dropout.

迈克尔·戴尔是辍学生。

Michael Dell is a dropout.

世界上有许多大学辍学生掌握着巨大权力。

A lot of college dropouts with a lot of power in the world.

通常中央集权经济体会让那些来自名牌大学的博士和硕士来掌管事务。

And normally centralized economies put people with PhDs and master's degrees from good universities in charge of stuff.

有时也会有来自名校的聪明人。

And sometimes there's intelligent people from good universities.

很多时候他们之所以做正确的事，是因为被辍学生教训了，或者被市场经济打击了——由于傲慢自大而遭到当头棒喝，某个他们不认同的行为摧毁了他们构建的世界完美模型，这才促使他们做出反应。

A lot of times if they do the right thing, it's because they got beat up by dropouts or they got beat up by the market economy and they had their head handed to them because they got arrogant and someone doing something that they disagreed with blows up their beautiful model of the world and they react.

其结果就是自然选择，并朝着更好的方向进化。

And the result is natural selection and evolution towards something better.