MacroVoices 第511期 Robert Kahn：2026年地缘政治展望

但总体而言，双方都承诺退一步，正如我所说，放下武器。

But by and large, there was a commitment by both sides to step back, as I say, to put down their arms.

我认为这相当持久。

I think this is pretty durable.

因此，在这方面，我对2026年的展望比以前更加积极。

And so in that regard, I think my outlook going to 2026 is somewhat more constructive than it was before.

这其中部分原因确实是坏消息成了好消息，因为从美国的角度来看，对这些关键材料的依赖程度之深，远超大多数人此前的认知，从国防材料到高端技术，再到日常消费品皆是如此。

Now part of that is indeed it's a kind of bad news is good news because from a US perspective, the dependence on these rare materials and is really profound in ways that I don't think everyone fully appreciated from defense material to high end technologies to everyday consumer products.

而且这种依赖不会很快消失。

And it's not going away soon.

你不可能简单地决定一年内就建立起一个具有竞争力的产业。

You can't just sort of decide we're gonna stand up that industry and be competitive in a year.

根据我们与客户和该领域专家的交流，这需要五到七年的时间。

This could be from all our clients we talk to, from the experts in the area, this is a five to seven year deal.

因此，我不确定美国是否已经认定，目前暂停是明智之举。

And so I'm not sure to the extent The US has decided that a pause makes sense at this point.

我不确定在六到九个月内会发生变化。

I'm not sure that changes in six or nine months.

因此，展望未来，我认为在2026年全年，中美之间的冲突作为市场波动的地缘政治驱动因素，将不如2025年那么显著，而我原本以为它会如此。

And so as I look down the road, I think surely for the course of 2026, the conflict between The US and China is gonna be less of a geopolitical driver of volatility than in 2025, and that I thought it was going to be.

对于你提到的这一点，我完全同意：许多人所担心的即将到来的与俄罗斯的战争，我认为并不是一个真正的风险。

Well, couldn't agree with you more on the point that the coming war with Russia that so many people fear, I don't think is a serious risk.

我这样说是因为，尽管这一点尚未登上头条，但美国军方中有很多聪明人清楚地认识到，美国不可能在任何一场与中国的实际冲突中获胜，因为中国掌握了所有主动权。

And I say that for the simple reason that although it may not be in the headlines yet, there are plenty of people in the US military that are smart enough to recognize that The US could not possibly win any kind of kinetic conflict with China because they hold all the cards.

我认为这很令人悲哀，但事实确实如此。

I think it's very sad that that's true, but it is true.

有一位名叫克雷格·廷代尔的澳大利亚企业家最近写了一篇关于这个问题的精彩文章，自从伊万霍矿产公司的首席执行官罗伯特·弗里德兰转发后，这篇文章开始广泛传播，获得了大量关注。

There's a Australian entrepreneur called Craig Tyndale who recently wrote an excellent piece about this, which is really starting to go viral after Robert Friedland, the CEO of Ivanhoe Mines, had retweeted it, and it's, it's getting a lot of circulation.

我们将在本周的研究摘要中收录这篇文章，以便我们的听众参考。

We'll put that in this week's research roundup for the benefit of our listeners.

但我想利用剩下的时间，集中探讨最困难的问题：天啊，我们在这次访谈中讨论了这么多不同的主题。

But I wanna take the remaining time that we have and really focus on the hardest question, which is, boy, so many different subjects we've talked about in this interview.

我们如何将这一切与你的实际职位联系起来？你的职位并不是地缘政治，而是全球宏观主管。

How do we assimilate all of this to your actual job title, which is not geopolitics, but you're managing director of global macro?

这对市场意味着什么？人们该如何配置资产，以应对我们所讨论的这些复杂的棋局？

What does this mean for markets, and how do people position to consider all of these complex chess pieces that we're talking about?

我认为这听起来可能有点自吹自擂，但我确信地缘政治将继续是市场波动的重要驱动因素。

Well, I do think I know this is gonna sound self serving, but I'm pretty convinced that geopolitics is gonna remain a very important driver of market volatility.

这在2025年无疑是一个关键议题，我认为这种情况还会持续下去。

That was certainly a story in 2025, and I think that that continues to be the case.

其中一部分原因在于总统推动重大变革的抱负、他的管理风格，以及由此带来的波动和不确定性。

Some of that is the president, his ambitions of enacting major change, his own management style and some of the volatility, and uncertainty.

这个‘不确定性’一词需要特别强调。

And that word needs to be stressed, uncertainty that it creates.

对吧？

Right?

这种不确定性会严重阻碍长期、不可逆的投资决策，无论是在美国还是其他地方，这种影响将持续存在。

And that's a killer for making long term irreversible investments, whether in The US or elsewhere, and that will continue to to play an important role.

所以我认为地缘政治仍然重要，这是第一点。

So I think geopolitics still matters, number one.

我认为，展望2026年，我们之前已略微提及过可负担性辩论和中期选举，最关键的问题是这一届政府如何应对这些脱节现象。

I think that as I look at 2026, and we've touched a little bit about on some of this in terms of the affordability debate and the midterms, I think the one critical question is how this administration responds to disconnects.

我认为总统确实有一个愿景，希望恢复美国以制造业为驱动的未来。

I think the president does have a vision that he that he would be able to restore a manufacturing driven future for The US.

但我认为他的政策并不能让我们实现这一目标。

I don't think his policies get us there.

但当关税、产业政策等措施未能带来他期望的结果时，他会转向什么？

But what happens as that disconnect between tariffs and and the and industrial policies and all of this don't generate the results he wants, what does he turn to?

如果可负担性成为选民强烈关注的问题，并归咎于他的政府，他会转向什么？

If affordability becomes an intensified concern for which the voters hold his administration, does he turn to?

他会采取更非传统的政策吗？

Does he adopt more unorthodox policies?

他会退缩吗？

Does he step back?

我认为这些将是未来几个月的关键问题。

These are gonna be critical questions I think in coming months.

但这么说的同时，我不希望让人觉得这仅仅是关于这一届政府和这位总统的问题。

But as saying that, I don't wanna make it sound like this is just a question of this administration and this president.

我总是喜欢说，特朗普总统既是当前我们所处时代的症状，也是其成因。

I like to always say that president Trump is both symptom and cause of the current moment that we live in.

对吧？

Right?

他是在美国人对自二战以来建立和发展的开放市场体系失去信心的时期成长起来的。

That he in it came of political age after a period in which Americans were losing confidence in the open market systems that we had produced and built up since World War two.

我认为这其中一部分是全球化带来的动荡和错位，以及那些失利者感受到未来前景黯淡的不满。

Some of that I think was the disruptions, the dislocations from globalization, and the discontent from those who were losing out, who felt their futures were not as strong.

另一部分则是来自冲击的挑战，比如全球金融危机、新冠疫情等。

Some of it was the challenges from shocks, the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and the like.

我认为还有一部分是社交媒体，它改变了我们的对话方式。

Some of it I think is social media, right, in the way in which it's changed our dialogues.

但这种政策、发展和大趋势的混合，我认为创造了一种不安全感和冲突的意图。

But that mix of policies and developments and big trends, I think has created a sense of insecurity and a sense of conflict intention.

而总统在某种程度上理解了这一点，并顺势而为。

And the president in a sense understood that and in a sense rode that wave.

现在我认为他加速了这一过程。

Now I think he's been an accelerant to that process.

但你知道，这引发了这样一个问题：有多少是特朗普本人的问题，又有多少是所谓的‘特朗普主义’？

But, you know, I think it raises the question of of how much of this is president Trump, and how much of this, if you will, is Trumpism?

即使他不再担任总统后，这些因素又会持续多久？

How much of this is likely to persist even after his time as president?

我认为这些问题非常有趣。

I think those are really interesting questions.

我喜欢认为，我们在某种意义上正处于一场地缘政治衰退之中。

I like to think that we are in some sense in a geopolitical recession.

我所说的这意味着什么？

What do I mean by that?

这并非完全是一场经济衰退，但有一种时间上的类比，即我们的政治未能帮助我们解决重大问题，也没有以应有的方式将我们凝聚在一起。

It's not quite an economic recession, but there's this analogy of a sense in time which our politics are not helping us solve big problems, are not bringing us together in ways.

我们必须找到更好的方法来实现这一点。

We've gotta find better ways to do that.

所以，如果你问我未来前景如何，一方面，我看到美国经济依然相当有韧性，并在许多重要方面充满活力，但与此同时，我认为当前的政策组合也在很大程度上错失了机遇。

So if you're asking me what does the outlook hold, well, on the one hand, I see in a US economy that remains pretty resilient, and it's very dynamic in important ways, but yet I think is also leaving a lot on the table, if you will, by its current policy mix.

在创新和活力方面做出了牺牲，而我认为这将带来一些持久的后果。

Sacrificing in terms of innovation and dynamism in ways that I think are gonna have some lasting consequences.

因此，我认为关键在于我们能否找到更好的方式团结起来，共同应对我们即将面临的挑战，寻求两党合作的解决方案。

So I think it's can we find ways of coming together better and finding bipartisan and and, you know, solutions to the challenges we're gonna face.

我认为这是一个重大问题，可能在未来几年内逐渐明朗，但其影响甚至会超越这个时间段。

I think this is a big question that will probably get answered over the next several years, but even beyond that.

关于我们正在观察的一些趋势，你知道，黄金价格正在疯狂上涨。

With respect to some of the trends that we're seeing, you know, price of gold is going crazy.

但我们并没有看到原油价格出现大幅上涨。

We're not seeing any big upside in crude oil prices.

我认为这很可能是因为总统努力朝相反方向干预。

I think that's probably because of the president's efforts to intervene in the opposite direction.

除了那些已经显而易见的趋势外，还有哪些重要的趋势是我们的听众应该了解或思考的投资相关问题？

Are there any significant trends that are not already obvious that our listeners should know about or think about in terms of investments?

好吧，我来发表一点看法。

Well, I'm gonna make one comment.

这是一个经济学家的观点，但我认为它关乎投资策略：回到我们之前关于美联储的讨论，美联储未来降息的决策在很大程度上取决于他们所认为的中性利率，也就是一些经济学家所说的 r*，即适合经济的实际利率。

It's an economist comment, but I think it speaks to an investment strategy, which is and we taking it back to our Fed conversation, you know, the what the Fed does down the road in terms of interest rate cuts depends lot on what they see as what they call the neutral rate or what some economists call r star, which is the real interest rate that is right for the economy.

我们刚刚经历了一个二十年的时期，当时适合经济实现充分就业的中期利率持续下降，并在一段时间内处于极低水平。

You know, we've just been through a twenty year period where the sort of medium term interest rate that was right for the economy to be at full employment was coming down and for some time was very low.

我们称之为大缓和时期。

We called it the great moderation.

我们早已习惯了极低的利率和低廉的资本成本。

We got very used to having very low interest rates and a low cost of capital.

这对美国的增长起到了巨大的推动作用。

It was a big source of growth for The US.

我认为，今天我们所讨论的这些因素——包括碎片化，以及对美国作为投资环境的看法可能发生逆转，这些都导致资本成本上升。

I would argue now that the things we've been talking about today that include fragmentation, that include maybe some reversal of views on The US as an investment environment, which makes capital more costly.

我们不再能像过去那样拥有庞大的全球储蓄池。

We won't have the giant pool of global savings to the same extent we did we have had in the past.

所有这些都与人口结构有关。

All of that is demographics.

这些都与更高的r*（中性利率）一致。

These are all consistent with a higher r star.

换句话说，从中期来看，利率从根本上讲必须高于过去水平。

In other words, that interest rates fundamentally will have to be higher in the medium term now than they have been in the past.

这是一项有争议的陈述。

Now that is a controversial statement.

即使在美联储内部，也有像纽约联储的约翰·威廉姆斯这样的人，他认为利率可以回落到疫情前的水平。

Even within the fed, there are people like John Williams, the New York fed, who thinks that rates can go back down to where they were before the pandemic.

而达拉斯联储的洛里·洛根等人则说：不，不，不。

Others like Lori Logan at the Dallas fed says, no, no, no.

我们的均衡利率很可能更高。

Our stars could quite possibly be higher.

换句话说，资本成本必须更高。

In other words, the cost of capital will have to be higher.

这对住房成本有深远影响，对更广泛的投资也有深远影响。

It has profound implications for the cost of housing, it has profound implications for investment more broadly.

这一切尚无定论，但如果我要说，我们今天的对话为你提供了若干重要理由，让你在假设利率会回落到过去几十年水平时保持谨慎。

The verdict is out on all of that, but if I had to say that our conversation today gives you some important reasons to be cautious in assuming that rates can go back down to where they were over the last couple of decades.

我非常感谢你这次精彩的访谈，但在你离开之前，我想问一下你的老板伊恩·布雷默。

Well, I can't thank you enough for a terrific interview, but before I let you go, I wanna ask you about your boss, Ian Bremmer.

我知道他在年初有两个非常重要的优先事项。

I know he has two super high priorities going into the beginning of the year.

当然，第一个是接受我们长期的邀请，来做一次MacroVoices访谈，但紧随其后的是，他还发布了这份年度风险报告，告诉人们来年需要注意什么。

Of course, the first one is accepting our long standing invitation to do a MacroVoices interview, But right behind that, he also publishes this annual top risks piece, which kinda tells people what to watch out for in the coming year.

这份报告什么时候发布？谁可以获取？

When does that come out, and who is it available to?

一般来说，对于想要更多了解 Eurasia Group 或关注您工作的人，他们该如何做呢？

And in general, for people who want to learn more about Eurasia Group or follow your work, how can they do so?

谢谢您提到这一点。

Well, thanks for bringing that up.

我一定会告诉 Yin，让他跟进我们今天的这次对话。

I'll definitely tell Yin that he should follow-up on this conversation we've had today.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们在我们的年度风险展望上投入了大量工作。

We put a tremendous amount of work into, our top risks outlook.

这其实不是风险，而更像是一种愿景。

It's not really a risk, it's really our our vision.

这是我们对世界未来走向的基准预测，但我们特别关注那些投资者、政治领袖等尚未充分认识到的发展趋势，因此我们称之为年度顶级风险。

So it's our base cases for how we think the world is going to go, but we do focus on developments that are not fully appreciated by investors, by political leaders and the like, and that's why we call it top risks.

它将在一月初发布，我想大概是第三天左右。

It'll come out the beginning of the January, so I think that's around the third.

说实话，去年是个很奇怪的年份。

Last year was a weird one, to be honest.

在某些方面，我们可能已经忘记了，但过去，顶级风险通常关注遥远的战争或重大的全球地缘政治趋势。

In some ways, we maybe forget that, but, you know, in the past, times, top risks would focus on faraway wars or big geopolitical global trends.

去年，大多数风险都与美国有关，涉及新总统的政策将如何改变世界。

Last year, most of the risks had to do with The US, had to do with how a new president's policies would change the world.

我们谈到了关税和移民。

So we talked about tariffs and immigration.

我们谈到了规范和法治。

We talked about norms and rule of law.

我们还谈到了放松监管以及类似的问题，所有这些都一直是投资者关注的焦点。

We talked about deregulation and those kind of issues, and all of that remained front and center for investors.

你知道，我们还没决定。

You know, we haven't decided yet.

我不想抢在伊恩前面说这些，但我确实认为，当我们展望未来，并回顾今天讨论的内容时，美国仍然是这些辩论的核心，无论好坏。

I wouldn't wanna front run Ian on all of this, but I certainly think that as we look ahead and given if you think about what we've just been talking about today, The US remains at the center there of these debates, good and bad.

会有一些胜利。

There will be some wins.

并非所有都是问题，但我确实认为，我们正处在一个美国致力于重塑全球贸易与投资规则的世界中，这一切的影响将持续存在。

They won't all be all be problems, But I do think we're kind of in a world where The US desire to rewire the rules for global trade and investment will continue, and and the implications of all that.

这对我们国家、政治、宪法权利、法治等方面意味着什么。

What it means for us in terms of a country, on our politics, on our constitutional rights, and rule of law, and the like.

所有这些问题在2026年对我们所有人来说仍将是核心要务。

All of those issues will continue to be of central importance for all of us in 2026.

请关注我们年初发布的顶级风险报告，我很乐意与大家讨论。

Stay tuned for our top risk report at the beginning, and and I'm happy to talk about it.

我们在网站上发布了这份报告。

We we put it on the website.

我们发布了大量面向公众的文件，甚至还有木偶。

We have a lot of public facing documents and even puppets.

请持续关注。

So please tune in.

网址是eurasiagroup.net。

It's eurasiagroup.net.

各位，网站仍然是eurasiagroup.net。

And again, folks, the website is eurasiagroup.net.

帕特里克·萨雷扎和我将继续带来《宏观之声》的后续节目，敬请关注macrovoices.com。

Patrick Sarezna and I will be back as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

现在回到您的主持人埃里克·汤森德和帕特里克·苏雷扎。

Now back to your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna.

埃里克，很高兴罗伯特再次做客节目。

Eric, it was great to have Robert back on the show.

听众们，你们可以在研究周报邮件中找到本周赛后交易的下载链接。

Listeners, you're gonna find the download link for that postgame trade of the week in your research roundup email.

如果你还没有收到研究周报邮件，那就意味着你尚未在macrovoices.com注册。

If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com.

请访问我们的主页macrovoices.com，点击罗伯特照片上方的红色按钮，标注为‘寻找下载内容’。

Just go to our homepage macrovoices.com and click on the red button over Robert's picture saying looking for the downloads.

帕特里克，本周的交易周重点是什么？

Patrick, what's on deck for the trade of

本周的交易周重点是什么？

the week this week?

埃里克，罗伯特·卡内斯的采访中真正凸显的是，石油背景已变得高度政治化且不稳定。

Eric, what really came through in Robert Cannes' interview is how politicized and unstable the oil backdrop has become.

白宫正专注于在中期选举前将汽油价格维持在低位，与此同时，俄罗斯、乌克兰、委内瑞拉以及更广泛的地缘政治动荡仍在幕后，随时可能使能源价格急剧上涨。

The White House is laser focused on keeping gasoline prices down into the midterms, while at the same time, you've got Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela, and broader geopolitical shocks in the background that could easily send energy prices sharply higher.

这正是我不愿在原油上押注方向的行情类型。

This is exactly the kind of regime where I don't want to pick a direction in crude.

我想做波动率。

I wanna own volatility.

第一页的图表显示，原油正处于关键的技术转折点。

The chart on page two shows how oil is at a key technical inflection point.

要么低点支撑引发强劲反弹，要么跌破新低，打开通往下一更低水平的大门。

Either the low holds for a sharp rebound or a break to a fresh low opens the floodgate for the next level down.

由于油价处于图表第3页所示的拐点位置，而我们的原油波动率尚未出现显著上升，仍处于过去四个月的交易区间内，这表明长期伽马策略的价格仍然相对合理。

As oil trades at this inflection point, as seen on the chart on page three, we have not seen a material jump in oil volatility as we remain in the trade ranges of the previous four months, suggesting long gamma is still reasonably priced.

为了在不持方向性观点的情况下，对未来三十天内原油的大幅波动进行表达，我正在构建一个宽幅为3美元的长期铁鹰价差策略。

To express the view on a sizable move in crude oil over the next thirty days without taking a directional stance, I'm structuring a long iron condor using $3 wide wings.

具体而言，我买入了2026年1月14日到期的53/50看跌期权价差和58/61看涨期权价差，总净债务为1美元。

Specifically, I'm buying the 01/14/2026 expiration, the 53 by 50 put spread, and the 58 by 61 call spread for a combined net debit of a dollar.

这两个垂直价差的宽度均为3美元，若原油价格在任一外侧行权价附近收盘，最大收益为2美元；若原油价格在两个内侧行权价之间到期，两个价差均作废，则最大损失为1美元。

Both verticals are three dollars wide for a maximum payoff of $2 if we finish in the money on either wing against a defined maximum loss of a dollar if crude oil expires between the inner strikes and both spreads expire worthless.

换句话说，我投入1美元，构建了一个多波动率结构，可在任一方向突破时获得2美元收益。

In other words, I'm laying out $1 to make two dollars in a long vol structure that monetizes a break in either direction.

详细信息已在图表手册的第4页中列出。

The details are broken down on page four of the chart deck.

帕特里克，在大格局交易的每个星期一，你的网络研讨会都会向散户投资者讲解如何执行我们本周的最新交易。

Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week.

对于希望深入了解如何执行这些交易的听众，请不要错过在bigpicturetrading.com申请为期14天的免费试用。

For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a fourteen day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com.

现在让我们深入分析赛后图表集。

Now let's dive in to the postgame chart deck.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

让我们来看看股票市场。

Let's dive into the equity markets.

帕特里克，我对股市短期前景没有强烈看法，除了可能要说，市场普遍预期的年末圣诞行情将推动股价创历史新高，但这一行情至今尚未出现，所以如果它真要发生，最好赶紧来了。

Patrick, I don't have a strong opinion on the short term outlook for the stock market other than perhaps to say that the widely anticipated Santa Claus rally into new all time highs at the year end, well, it hasn't happened yet, so if it's supposed to happen, I guess it better happen soon.

相反，我想利用这段时间放眼更宏观的图景，思考2026年整个市场——不仅仅是股市——可能呈现的格局，以及我认为最佳的交易机会在哪里。

I'm gonna use this time instead to zoom out to the much bigger picture of what I'm thinking 2026 on whole should look like for all markets, not just equities, and where I think the best trades are gonna be.

从交易中学到的一点是，要识别并抓住那些极其罕见的时刻——市场给你一个确定性，而市场尚未对此定价，因为人们难以理解它。

If there's anything I've learned from trading, it's to recognize and seize those extremely rare moments where the market hands you a certainty that markets have yet to discount because it's difficult for people to get their heads around it.

新冠疫情就是一个完美的例子。

The COVID pandemic was a perfect example.

到2020年2月1日时，全球大流行必然发生、原油价格必然崩盘，这一点已毫无疑问，但市场直到3月才开始反应，这真是市场送来的厚礼，许多宏观声音的听众和我自己都从中获得了丰厚回报。

By 02/01/2020, it was absolutely certain that a global pandemic was coming and that crude oil prices had to collapse, but the market didn't even start to respond until the March, a true gift from the market that many Macro Voices listeners and I myself profited from handsomely.

在认真思考吉姆·比安科上周的评论后，我意识到美联储可能犯下鸽派政策错误，这一情况正变得确定。

After really thinking about Jim Bianco's comments last week, I'm struck with the realization that a dovish policy error by the Fed and might become certain.

未来几周我们需要关注官员们、点阵图、政策沟通等，但我几乎已经完全确信，2026年鸽派政策错误将不可避免且必然发生。

We'll have to watch the players, the dots, the messaging, and so forth over the next few weeks, but I'm close to getting to full conviction that a dovish policy error is inevitable and certain in 2026.

不过我还没完全下定论，坦白说，无论是特朗普总统还是他即将任命的新美联储主席，都不太可能听从吉姆·比安科的警告——即长期利率可能因通胀担忧而反弹，尤其是当政策利率被下调或过度激进地下调时。

Now I'm not quite there yet, and let's face it folks, neither president Trump nor his new Fed chair, whoever that turns out to be, are likely to heed Jim Bianco's warnings that the back of the curve could very well revolt with higher rates out of inflation fears in reaction to a cut in policy rates or excessively aggressive cuts to policy rates.

所以他们会 aggressively 降息，因为这是特朗普想要的，而他也不会任命一个不忠于这一立场的人担任主席。

So they're gonna cut policy rates aggressively because that's what Trump wants, and he's not gonna put a chair in who's not going to be loyal to that.

就这样了。

End of story.

所以，如果真发生这种情况，我预测结果会很糟糕。

So I predict that's going to end badly if that's what happens.

我不知道这需要多久，也不知道最终结果会怎样，但我确信，如果美联储真的像我预期的那样，在2026年由新主席推动大幅降息，并且在屋内的‘成年人’开始强烈反对这些降息举措后仍继续这么做，那将创造一个与新冠疫情时期同等规模的绝佳交易机会——一个市场尚未定价的确定性机会。

Now I have no idea how long it's gonna take or what the outcome will be, but I'm convinced that the Fed, if they really cut rates aggressively as I expect the chair is going to push for in 2026, if they continue to do that well beyond the point where the grown ups in the room start dissenting loudly that those cuts are imprudent, it's going to set up an incredible trading opportunity on the same scale as that COVID opportunity where you've got a certain outcome that hasn't yet been discounted by markets.

目前仍存在的反对观点，我依然能看到，就是罗伯特·卡恩在今天专访中提出的观点，这实际上呼应了吉姆·比安科上周的说法：美联储不仅仅只是主席。

The counterargument that's still there, and I still see it, is the one that Robert Kahn made in today's feature interview, which is and it was actually echoing what Jim Bianco said last week, which is the Fed is more than just the chair.

正如吉姆·比安科上周所提到的，点阵图显示，许多现任投票成员——也就是当前的投票成员——

And as Jim Bianco mentioned last week, the dot plots show that a lot of the voting members, that's the current voting members.

记住，当美联储主席在五月更替时，投票成员名单也会发生变化。

Remember, the voting member roster changes when the Fed chair changes in May.

当前的投票成员中，许多人明确表示，他们认为在刚刚完成的那次降息之后，不应再进行任何进一步的降息。

The current voting members, a lot of them were really signaling that they don't think there should be any more rate cuts after the one they just did.

所以当前委员会的立场是这样，但我觉得与此同时，迹象已经非常明显：任何不参与政策利率降息阵营的人，都将面临特朗普总统的报复怒火。

So that's where the current board sits, but I think at the same time, the handwriting is pretty clear on the wall that anybody who doesn't join in the policy rate cutting party is gonna bear the wrath of revenge from president Trump.

所以我希望再观望一段时间，因为坦白说，我并不觉得有紧迫性去错失一次交易机会。

So I wanna wait this out a little bit longer because frankly, I don't feel any great urgency to miss a trade.

我记得那次新冠疫情相关的交易。

I remember that COVID trade.

去年一月，我恐慌地拼命抛售原油期货，尽我所能快速卖出，以为市场随时会醒悟到原油价格必然下跌的明显现实。

I was panicking in that last January to sell crude oil futures just as hard and as fast as I possibly could, thinking the market was gonna wake up in any moment to the obvious reality that crude oil had to go lower.

但市场花了一个多月才开始对下行趋势做出反应。

Took more than a month before the market even started to react to the downside.

最初，市场继续上涨，直到二月大部分时间都完全无视明显即将发生的事情，我不得不经历了一次非常痛苦的亏损。

I actually had to go through a very painful loss initially as the market continued to rally into most of February completely blind to what was obviously coming.

所以我认为没有必要急于进入我所考虑的这种交易，因为我们还不知道理事们作为一个整体将会采取什么行动。

So I don't think there's any rush to get into the kind of trade that I'm thinking about because we don't yet know what the governors as a group are going to do.

但特别是如果我们开始看到更多信号表明，群体共识将追随主席的意愿，而我认为，如果我正确解读了这些迹象，这正是我们正在走向的方向。

But especially if we start to see more messaging suggesting that the group consensus is gonna follow what the chair wants, and I think that's the direction if I'm reading the the tea leaves correctly here, I think that's the direction we're headed in.

这让我觉得，我们可能会迎来一个明确的宽松政策失误的时机。

It says to me that maybe we get a setup where you know for sure that there's gonna be a dovish policy error.

你知道，这需要几个月才能显现出来。

You know it's gonna take months for it to play out.

你知道这是一种非共识观点，或者人们对此并没有很强的信念，而这给了你时间来规划交易。

You know that that's a a non consensus view or that people don't have really strong conviction about that, and it gives you time to plan a trade.

所以这就引出了关键问题。

So that takes you to the key question.

这笔交易是什么？

What is the trade?

做多黄金是显而易见的答案，但正因为这太明显了，意味着这已经是一个非常拥挤的交易，如果市场有任何恐慌导致热钱迅速撤离，这笔交易很容易大幅回调。

Well, long gold is the painfully obvious answer, but because it's painfully obvious, that means it's already a very, very crowded trade that could easily retrace hard to the downside if anything panics the hot money out of that trade because it's already been on for so long.

这就把我们带回了真正关键的问题。

So that brings you back to the real key question.

那个尚未有人想到、或大多数人还没想到的差异化观点交易是什么？如果美联储真的犯下鸽派政策错误，这种交易能带来巨大回报。

What's the variant perception trade that nobody's thought of yet or that most people haven't thought of yet that delivers a grand slam if the Fed commits a dovish policy error?

你可以参考吉姆·比安科的观点。

Well, you could go to the Jim Bianco.

我不会说这是他的预测，因为他并没有做出预测，但你可以考虑后端收益率曲线反弹的风险情景，并通过曲线变陡交易来押注。

I won't say prediction because he didn't make a prediction, but you could take the risk scenario of the back end of the curve revolting and you could bet with, let's say, a curve steepener.

等等。

Well, wait a minute.

我们并不确定这一定会是市场反应。

We don't know for sure that that's gonna be the reaction.

这仅仅是吉姆提出的一种可能情景。

That was just one scenario that Jim suggested was possible.

那么，如果美联储出现严重的鸽派政策失误，哪种结果会必然带来不对称的巨额回报？

So what's the certain outcome if there is a serious dovish policy error on the Fed's part that asymmetrically delivers a grand slam return?

帕特里克，你还有好几周时间来解决你的不对称交易挑战。

Patrick, I think you've got many weeks left to figure out for your asymmetric trading challenge.

那个不对称的‘全垒打’交易到底是什么？

What's that grand slam asymmetric trade?

因为我觉得 somewhere 就存在这样一个交易。

Because I think there is one there somewhere.

我只是现在还不知道它是什么。

I just don't know what it is yet.

再说一遍，朋友们，我还没有那个价值六万亿美元问题的答案，但我计划在未来几周内努力找出答案。

Again, folks, I don't have the answer to that $64,000,000,000,000 question, but I do plan to spend the next several weeks trying to figure it out.

再次强调，我目前还没有完全确信这种政策失误是不可避免的，因为美联储其他投票成员可能会反抗。

Again, the caveat is I'm not yet completely convinced that that policy error is inevitable because there might be a revolt from the other voting members of the Fed.

但如果主席如愿以偿，或者特朗普总统能够影响委员会其他成员，我认为这种政策失误非常可能发生，甚至可能成为必然，而一旦它成为必然，我就想已经弄清楚那是什么

But if the chair has their way or if president Trump is able to, influence the rest of the committee, I think that policy error is very likely and could become certain, and if it does become certain, I wanna have already figured out what is the that

全垒打交易。

grand slam trade.

还不知道。

Don't know yet.

帕特里克，我欢迎你的想法。

Patrick, I welcome your ideas.

好吧，埃里克，正如你所暗示的，2026年确实可能面临显著的波动，但让我们先观察接下来几周，看看短期内会发生什么。

Well, Eric, there certainly is the potential for some substantial volatility in the 2026 year like you're suggesting, but let's frame the next few weeks and see what's gonna happen here on the short term.

我们有两个大幅缩短的假期周，交易量会明显下降，而期权到期的伽马效应可能在假期期间对市场产生压制作用。

We have two substantially shortened holiday weeks where volumes materially back off while there clearly is options expiration gamma that can potentially play a role in pinning the market over those holiday periods.

虽然这让我倾向于认为假期期间市场将处于区间震荡，但还有一个意外因素，那就是人工智能市场的裂缝。

While this makes me likely wanna call this a trade range bound market over the holidays, there's a curveball, and the curveball is the cracks in the AI market.

在第6页，我列出了半导体ETF，它实际上已跌破其50日移动平均线，甲骨文、博通等公司的一些负面新闻所引发的抛售压力，正在开始对这一领域施压。

On page six, I have the semiconductor ETF, which is actually breaking back down below its fifty day moving average, and the selling pressure driven by some of the headlines from Oracle and Broadcom and and more is actually starting to stress this space.

这些公司的市值极其庞大，如果我们突然看到英伟达跌破更低低点，或出现类似其他因素，必将严重拖累标普500指数，使其远离高位。

We're talking about such huge market capitalization in these names that if we suddenly saw Nvidia break to a lower low or any other type of factor like this, it would certainly be a huge drag on the S and P 500 that would keep it well off of its highs.

总体而言，我认为发生重大崩盘的风险并不高，但你必须密切关注这些AI股票，因为如果这意外成为波动性的催化剂，我们就必须做好某种结构性对冲的准备。

Now overall, I don't think that there's a high risk of a major breakdown, but you gotta watch these AI stocks because if this somehow turns into a volatility catalyst, we have to be prepared with some sort of structural hedging.

我想留给听众几个需要关注的简单关键水平。

I want to leave listeners with a couple of simple levels to watch.

如果SMH半导体指数跌破340，同时标普500指数也跌破6700点，那就打开了一个更动荡环境的大门，我会对此保持高度警惕，防范下行风险。

If the SMH semiconductor index starts breaking below 340 and the S and P 500 rolls over through the 6,700 level at the same time, that opens a door for much more volatile environment and would have me firmly on guard for downside risk.

好了，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们来谈谈美元。

Let's dive into the dollar.

嗯，帕特里克，迪克西的抛售仍在继续，价格已形成一个我们此前在《宏观之声》中预期的明确下行通道。

Well, Patrick, the Dixie sell off continues in what has now become a well established downward price channel, just as we anticipated here on Macro Voices.

我的展望依然看跌，但前提是特朗普和贝森特若发布重大政策声明，可能瞬间改变这一态势。

My outlook remains bearish with the caveat that a big policy announcement from Trump and Bessent could change that in a heartbeat.

但如果没有政策声明，在我看来，趋势显然是下行的，并且可能会持续下去。

But absent a policy announcement, looks to me like, you know, the trend is down and is probably gonna continue.

嗯，埃里克，过去一年美元的主要下行趋势非常清晰，包括最近几周美元再次跌破了50日移动均线。

Well, Eric, over the last year, the primary downtrend of the dollar is very clear, including the last few weeks that has had the dollar weaken back below the fifty day moving average.

在我看来，98是一个关键水平需要关注。

And in my mind, 98 is a critical level to watch.

因为如果这个水平被跌破，美元可能会出现下行加速。

Because if that level is broken, we have the potential for a dollar downside acceleration.

同时，如果这个水平没有被跌破，那么整个回调仍然只是斐波那契回撤，为美元在年底前保持区间震荡留下了空间。

At the same time, if that isn't broken, this entire pullback would still just be a Fibonacci retracement, leaving the window open for the dollar to remain in a trade range to finish off the year.

总体而言，虽然我认为2026年美元空头仍有充分的反弹空间，但考虑到目前在货币或财政方面没有重大新闻，我们也很可能反弹至99附近、靠近50日均线后，在此区间盘整至年底。

Overall, I while I do think that 2026 has plenty of room for the dollar bear to re resume, it is entirely plausible that we bounce back to 99 toward the fifty day moving average and settle in here for the rest of the year considering there are no major news announcements on the monetary or fiscal side.

好了，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们得聊聊石油。

We gotta touch on oil.

周一和周二原油期货的抛售非同小可。

Monday and Tuesday's sell off in crude oil futures was a big deal.

别被这种错误的逻辑迷惑了，等等。

Now don't fall for the false logic that, well, wait a minute.

你知道，4月8日和5月5日，WTI原油价格都曾测试过55美元这个水平。

You know, April 8 and then again May 5, we had tests of that same $55 handle on WTI.

当时没撑住，所以现在也不会撑住。

It didn't last then, so it's not gonna last now.

等等。

Wait a minute.

这根本是拿苹果和橘子做比较。

That's comparing apples to oranges.

那些都是日内恐慌，由新闻头条引发，市场在盘中反转后收盘价高于57美元，形成巨大的锤子线，而当时只是在盘中测试了55美元水平。

Those were intraday panics based on headline news that painted gigantic hammer candles after the market reversed intraday and closed above 57 in both cases after testing a 55 handle midday.

本周二下午，我们的收盘价接近当日低点，仅仅略高于55美元几厘。

Tuesday afternoon this week, we closed near the low of the day, just barely a few ticks above 55 even.

所以，这是一次新的收盘低点，我不知道上一次是什么时候了。

So that was a new closing low for, I don't know, since how long.

它超出了我图表的左侧边缘。

It goes off the left edge of my my chart here.

我得扩大图表或向左滚动才能弄清楚这一点。

I'd have to, expand it or scroll, left to figure that one out.

它告诉我，可能还有一波下跌在酝酿中，我们还没看到这次下跌的最低点。

It says to me that maybe a move lower is in the works, and we haven't seen the worst of this yet.

与此同时，我们看到的反弹——首先，反弹是不可避免的，但这次反弹看起来相当健康。

Now at the same time, the bounce that we've seen well, first of all, a bounce was inevitable, but the bounce is looking reasonably healthy.

我们一路涨到了八日均线，然后回落到五日均线，截至录制时，我们仍高于五日均线，WTI价格在56.25附近。我们必须突破约58的WTI水平，才能站上短期均线，表明情况有所好转。

We got all the way up to the eight day moving average, then came back down to the five, and as of recording time, we're still above that five day moving average at 56 spot 25 WTI, we really need to get above 58 WTI or so in order to get above the short term moving averages to say that, oh, okay.

这次反弹似乎有持续的动力。

It looks like this rally has legs.

至少在短期内，底部可能已经形成。

Maybe the the bottom is in at least for the short term.

截至录制时，特别是如果我们仍保持在八日均线56.88下方——这是二月合约的价格。

As of, recording time, especially if we stay below the, eight day moving average at 56 spot 88, and that's on the February contract.

我已经从一月合约切换到了二月合约。

I've rolled over now from, January onto the February contract.

如果我们无法突破这一水平，我认为价格可能会再次回落至新的更低低点。

If we can't get above that level, I think we could be headed back now down to new lower lows.

如果我们收盘低于55美元，我认为这可能预示着价格将进一步下跌，甚至可能测试50美元。

And if we close below 55, I think it could signal a move lower maybe to test 50 even.

同样，我不确定具体会发生什么。

Again, I don't know exactly what's gonna happen.

市场消息可能瞬间改变局势，但我认为特朗普总统非常有动力在11月大选前压低能源价格。

It could change in a heartbeat on news, but I think president Trump is very, very strongly incented to try to keep energy prices down through the November elections.

我认为这就是他如此努力推动乌克兰和俄罗斯达成和平的原因之一。

I think that's one of the reasons he's working so hard to get peace with Ukraine and Russia.

我认为他希望找到一个理由放松对俄罗斯的制裁，让更多的俄罗斯石油流入市场，以缓解价格负担危机——而这才是影响他在中期选举中表现的最关键因素。

I think it's because he wants to have an excuse to relax sanctions on Russia and let more of that Russian oil flow to help solve the affordability crisis, which is really what's going to affect him in the midterm elections more than anything else.

话虽如此，我应该说，我确实开始在原油交易中少量建多仓，因为当我看到价格一度跌破55美元时，实在忍不住了。

Now having said all of that, what I should say is I did start to nibble on the long side of the oil trade here because I couldn't resist that $55 number when I saw it actually, go below $55, for a minute.

我提前买入了一些时间价差，具体是12月26日和12月27日的时间价差，以每桶1.75美元的正向市场价差购入。

I went ahead and bought some time spreads, specifically the December 26, December 27 time spreads, which I was able to get for a dollar 75 contango.

因此，买入这个价差时的价差为-1.75美元，而到录音时已回升至1.47美元。

So that's minus 1.75 to buy that spread in contango, already back up to a dollar 47 at recording time.

这样做的理由是，原油期货曲线的特性决定了有三种可能的结果。

The rationale there is this nature of the crude oil futures curve is such that, you know, there are three possible outcomes.

如果出现另一场地缘政治动荡，我们可能会看到明显的反向市场回归。

We we could see a return to pronounced backwardation if there's another geopolitical upset.

在这种情况下，我做多这些时间价差的交易就是一次全垒打，因为我是在一个相对陡峭的正向市场中买入的，每月约15美分，全年价差为1.75美元。

In that case, my trade here going long those time spreads is a grand slam because I'm buying them in a reasonably steep contango of, oh, I don't know, about 15¢ per month at a dollar 75 on the year.

所以我买入的是一个相对陡峭的正向市场。

So it's a reasonably steep contango that I'm buying.

如果出现地缘政治升级，我认为可能会转为深度反向市场，但如果没有，而当前结构保持不变，那么曲线前十二个月的情况是：初期略有反向市场，随后转为轻微正向市场。

I think it might go into steep backwardation if we get a geopolitical escalation, but if we don't and we keep the current structure, right now, the first twelve months of the curve, because there's a little bit of backwardation at the beginning of the curve, then there's a little bit of contango.

最终，第一年的整体结果仍为净正向市场。

It ends up being a net contango in that first year out.

但一年后，你将看到从当前主力合约1月26日到1月27日的12个月价差约为12美分的正向市场。

But one year out, you're looking at about 12¢ of contango on that twelve month spread from January 26, which is the current front month contract, to January 27.

我买入的12个月价差是-1.75美元，而当前市场价差是12美分。

The twelve month spread that that I bought was minus one spot 75 compared to 12¢.

所以，如果我们只是回到当前市场水平，我的价差就会从1.75美元的正向市场缩小到12美分。

So if we just get back to the current market, I go from $1.75 contango to 12¢.

这已经是一笔巨大的收益了。

That's a great big gain right there.

我不需要市场转向反向市场，这笔交易就已经能盈利。

I don't need a shift into backwardation in order for the trade to be profitable.

当然，第三种可能的结果是，整个曲线全面进入结构性正向市场，并且正向市场程度进一步加深，到该价差到期时，正向幅度将超过1.75美元。

Now, of course, the third potential outcome is that we get into a full structural contango all the way to the front of the curve, and that contango deepens from here, and it's more than a dollar 75 by the time that spread is ready to expire.

什么时候？

When?

就在感恩节过后不久，那时市场应该已经消化了选举结束的影响。

Right around just after Thanksgiving when the market should be discounting the the elections being over.

所以我认为从多头角度来说，Z6到Z7的价差时机很不错。

So I think the timing on that z six, z seven spread from the long side is pretty good.

我很满意我以1.75美元的价格入场。

I like the entry that I got at $1.75.

正如我所说，价格已经回到1.47美元了。

As I said, it's already back to $1.47.

如果我能以比2美元更陡峭的升水买入，我也不感到意外。

I won't be surprised if I get a chance to buy it at maybe even steeper contango than $2.

如果发生这种情况，我会继续买入。

I'll buy more if that happens.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

但只有当市场从当前水平进一步跌至更低时，才会出现这种情况。

But, that would only be if the market plumbs even deeper lows from here.

如果到明年感恩节之前，这种升水都没有至少有所收窄，我会感到惊讶，但这种情况始终是有可能的。

Getting all the way to next Thanksgiving without that contango at least flattening somewhat will surprise me, but it's always possible.

埃里克，就像我在本周交易建议中提到的，我预期会有大幅波动。

Eric, like I suggested in the trade of the week, I am expecting substantial volatility.

我们直接回测了解放日的低点，这是一个关键转折点：要么这条支撑线得以维持，我们将迎来显著反弹，油价可能轻松上涨五美元以上；要么任何技术性破位都会让我们陷入无人区，止损单和抛压将导致油价持续下行。

We did a direct retest of the lows from Liberation Day, and this is an inflection point where either this support line holds, and we're gonna get a material bounce that could see easily five plus dollars on the upside of oil, or any technical breakdown puts us in no man's land where simply stop losses and selling pressure will just kinda spill oil to the downside.

无论如何，这条支撑线都非常重要，我们将在接下来的几个交易日内看到它是否被突破。

One way or another, this is a very important support line, we're and gonna see whether it's broken here within the next few trading sessions.

现在，埃里克，黄金表现强劲。

Now, Eric, gold's been strong.

你对此有何看法？

What's your thoughts here?

嗯，这波上涨正如我们在MacroVoices上所预期的那样。

Well, the move higher seems to be on just as we anticipated here on MacroVoices.

市场最初在接近4400美元的前所有高位遭遇了强劲阻力。

The market initially rejected the strong resistance level at the previous all time high just below 4,400.

天啊。

Oh my god.

这意味着什么？

What does it mean?

这意味着什么？

What does it mean?

这意味着，各位。

It means this folks.

准备好了吗？

Ready?

请鼓掌。

Drum roll please.

这就是为什么它被称为阻力位。

That's why they call it a resistance level.

很清楚。

Pretty clear.

很简单。

Pretty simple.

我们会一直撞上这个阻力位，直到突破它或出现更明确的拒绝信号。

And we're gonna bump our head on that resistance level until we break through it or until we get a firmer rejection.

但到目前为止，我看到的是一个良好、稳定、明确的短期上涨价格通道。

But so far, what I see is a nice, steady, well established short term upward price channel.

趋势是向上的。

The trend is up.

我们正在撞上之前的历史最高点4400。

We're bumping our heads on the previous all time high at 4,400.

当然，我们是。

Of course, we are.

这可能会持续得久一点。

It might last a little longer.

在结束之前，我们可能会看到价格略微回落，但我预计我们最终会突破它。

We might see a dip a little lower before it's over, but I anticipate we'll probably break above it.

如果我们真的突破了4400并收于其上方，下一个目标位是49.30到51.40美元，具体取决于你从哪个低点开始计算这个上涨幅度。

If we do, if we get a close above 4,400, the next measured move target is $49.30 to $51.40 depending on where you measure the beginning of that move from in terms of which low you go back to in order to start the, the measured move upward.

如果我们能收于4400上方，那么至少还有500美元的上涨空间，我认为我们很可能做到。

So there's another $500 at least of upside if we can get that close above 4,400, and I think we probably will.

让我们拭目以待吧。

Let's cross our fingers and see what happens.

目前黄金交易在52周高点，但与此同时，我们也看到铂金、钯金和白银都大幅上涨。

Well, here we have gold trading at its fifty two week highs, but at the same time, we saw platinum, palladium, and silver all rip.

整个贵金属市场都在飙升，这无疑为黄金突破并创下新的52周高点打开了窗口。

The entire precious metals market is is running, which certainly leaves the window open for gold to join the party with a break to fresh new fifty two week highs.

在这个假期缩短的时期，如果美元没有立即下跌，黄金是否会先在之前的高点附近反复试探，从而为2026年的行情积蓄力量？

The big question in this holiday shortened period, and especially if the dollar doesn't immediately break down, does gold initially just bump its head along this previous high and just consolidate into setting this up for a 2026 move?

目前，整个贵金属市场都非常火热。

Right now, the entire precious metals market is so hot.

在第10页，我展示了白银图表，它清晰地显示出价格在上方的指数级飙升。

On page 10, I have that silver chart, which is just showing this exponential rip on the upside.

我们离70美元大关仅一步之遥。

We're a stone throw away from that 70 level.

在这一阶段，白银仍然是贵金属领域中的明星，而且无疑推动了市场对金属的整体情绪。

At this stage, silver continues to be the rock star in the precious metal space, and, and it's certainly driving the sentiment toward, the metals.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Eric.

我们来谈谈铀。

Let's touch on uranium.

当然，听众们肯定已经听腻了我反复说：我对长期基本面不可能更看好了。

Well, as listeners, I'm sure, are getting sick of hearing me say, I couldn't possibly be more bullish about the long term fundamentals.

上周我提到，URA的周线随机指标表现非常出色，但日线随机指标上周仍处于超买区域。

Last week, I mentioned the weekly stochastics are really looking great as a setup on URA, but, boy, the daily stochastics were still overbought last week.

这一周，由于与AI板块同步下跌，我们的日线和周线随机指标都回到了超卖区域。

Well, this week's sell off in sympathy with the AI baskets took us back down to both daily and weekly stochastics in oversold territory.

这为上涨走势创造了良好的启动条件，但风险依然在于AI板块可能出现恐慌性抛售。

That's a great setup for a move higher to begin, but the risk is still a panic out of the AI trade.

在录制时，我们看到标普500期货正再次接近关键的50日移动平均线，出现了一些回调迹象。

We're seeing a little bit of rollover here with the, at recording time, the S and P 500 futures are flirting right with that key fifty day moving average again.

如果我们大幅跌破该水平，尤其是跌破了目前位于6670的100日移动平均线，我就会非常担心AI交易正在解除头寸，并可能让铀矿股一路暴跌。

If we end up moving substantially below it, and especially if we take out the hundred day moving average, which is now up to six six seven zero, if we took that out to the downside, I'd start to get really worried that the AI trade is unwinding and could take the u miners way the hell down with them.

但除此之外，我认为这是一个看涨的形态。

But outside of that, I think this is a bullish setup.

我正在加仓URA和其他铀矿股，你知道，我可能错了，但我认为这是一个不错的布局。

I'm, adding to my lungs on URA and other uranium miners here, and, you know, I could be wrong, but I think it's a good setup.

不过，更安全的交易方式是关注铀现货（UN）。

The safer play, though, would be on u spot UN.

那是实物铀信托基金。

That's the physical uranium trust.

它的上行杠杆不会像矿股那么大，但我认为它的下行风险要小得多，因为它直接与铀的现货价格挂钩。

Won't have as much upside leverage as the miners will, but I think it's a much safer play in terms of much more limited downside because that's tied directly to the spot price of uranium.

所以，安全型投资，或者说如果你愿意把它看作一种安全的投机多头，那就是做多现货。

So the safety play or or the safety speculative long play, if you wanna think of that as a safety play, is long spot.

更具风险的交易是做多URA，而我认为它的形态看起来不错。

The more risky play is long URA, and I think it looks like a good setup.

帕特里克，你怎么看？

Patrick, what do you think?

嗯，埃里克，从技术面上看，URA 曾试图突破其50日移动平均线，并接近上次下跌幅度的50%回撤位。

Well, Eric, technically, we had a scenario where the URA tried to break back above its fifty day moving average and approached its 50% retracement of the last decline.

有趣的是，当铀价在这里反转下跌时，其发生的时间窗口与半导体开始崩盘的窗口非常相似。

And what's interesting here is that as uranium here just rolled over, it did so in the similar window from which the semiconductor started to break down.

我对这个铀故事的一个更大担忧是：它在多大程度上被与AI故事和数据中心电力故事捆绑在一起了？

And one of my bigger concerns about this uranium story is how much is it being basketed with the AI story and the data center power story?

因为如果我们看到AI板块出现派发，这是否会引发对这些铀股的抛售压力，而不管它们长期看涨的基本面如何？

Because if we see distribution in the AI basket, will it result in selling pressure in these uranium names irrespective of their long term bullish positioning?

总体而言，这种相关性可能是我更大的担忧。

Overall, that correlation is probably my bigger concern.

在现阶段，最重要的是观察前低是否能够守住，以及铀价能否独立走强，还是会继续与大盘同步波动。

At this stage, one of the most important things is to watch whether the previous low can hold and whether or not it can march the beat of its own drum or whether it's gonna be basketed with the rest.

帕特里克，在我们结束本周节目之前，我们来看一下十年期国债收益率图表。

Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that ten year treasury note chart.

最后，十年期国债，我们现在看到价格在五十日均线之上盘整。

And finally, that ten year, we saw the consolidation now above the fifty day moving average.

六个月来首次，我们看到收益率创出新高并站稳了这一高点。

And for the first time in six months, we have seen yields make a higher high and holding the that turn.

因此，我们现在看到的是一种非常明确的趋势转变，这种趋势自今年下半年以来一直存在。

So what we now see is a very clear shift in the trend that's been in place for the second half of this year.

这种趋势是否会延续到2026年，是需要解答的谜题。

Will this perpetuate in 2026 is the puzzle to solve.

各位，如果你喜欢帕特里克的图表资料，可以通过免费试用《宏观视角交易》获取每周每天的更新。

Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading.

详细信息在幻灯片的最后几页，或者直接访问 bigpicturetrading.com。

The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com.

帕特里克，告诉他们本周的研究摘要中会包含哪些内容。

Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup.

在本周的研究摘要中，你会找到今天访谈的全文，以及我们在赛后讨论过的周交易图表集，还包括我们觉得有趣的几篇文章链接。

Well, in this week's research roundup, you're gonna find the transcript for today's interview as well as the trade of the week chartbook that we just discussed here in the postgame, including a link to a number of articles that we found interesting.

你将在本周的研究综述中找到这个链接以及更多内容。

You're gonna find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup.

本期节目到这里就结束了。

That does it for this week's episode.

我们非常感谢听众们的反馈和支持，也始终在寻找改进节目质量的建议。

We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners, and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better.

对于那些撰写或经营市场相关博客并希望与我们的听众分享内容的听众，请发送邮件至 researchroundup@macrovoices.com，我们将考虑将其纳入每周的分发内容中。

Now for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com, and we will consider it for our weekly distributions.

如果你还没有，请在 X 平台关注我们的主账号 Macro Voices，以获取所有最新动态和发布内容。

If you have not already, follow our main account on x at Macro Voices for all the most recent updates and releases.

你也可以在 X 平台关注 Eric，账号是 Eric s Townsend。

You can also follow Eric on x at Eric s Townsend.

Eric 是用 K 拼写的。

That's Eric spelled with a k.

你也可以关注我，账号是 Patrick Sarezna。

You can also follow me at Patrick Sarezna.

代表埃里克·汤森德和我本人，感谢您的收听，我们下周再见。

On behalf of Eric Townsend and myself, thank you for listening, and we'll see you all next week.

本期《宏观之声》到此结束。

That concludes this edition of Macro Voices.

请每周准时收听，聆听金融与宏观经济学领域最杰出思想者的专题访谈。

Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics.

《宏观之声》由 bigpicturetrading.com 赞助播出，该网站是交易者在线教育的全球领先平台。

Macro Voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the Internet's premier source of online education for traders.

请访问 bigpicturetrading.com 了解更多信息。

Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information.

请在 macrovoices.com 注册您的免费账户。

Please register your free account at macrovoices.com.

注册后，您将收到我们免费的每周研究速递邮件，内含我们特邀嘉宾提供的支持性文档，以及我们的志愿者研究团队每周在互联网上精选的最优质的免费金融内容。

Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the Internet each week.

您还将获得访问我们免费听众讨论论坛和研究图书馆的权限。

You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library.

注册用户越多，我们就能为未来的节目招募到更多知名嘉宾。

And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high profile feature interview guests for future programs.

所以，如果你还没有注册，请立即在 macrovoices.com 免费注册一个账户。

So please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already.

你可以在 iTunes 上订阅 Macro Voices，每周免费自动接收节目到你的移动设备。

You can subscribe to Macro Voices on iTunes to have Macro Voices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge.

你可以将问题发送至 mailbag@macrovoices.com，我们会在节目中的‘听众来信’环节不定期回答你的问题。

You can email questions for the program to mailbag@macrovoices.com, and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment.

Macro Voices 仅提供信息和娱乐用途。

Macro Voices is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Macro Voices 上提供的信息不应被视为投资建议。

The information presented on Macro Voices should not be construed as investment advice.

在做出投资决策之前，请务必咨询持牌投资专业人士。

Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions.

Macro Voices 中表达的观点和意见仅为嘉宾个人观点，不一定反映节目主持人或赞助商的立场。

The views and opinions expressed on Macro Voices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors.

Macro Voices 及其制作方、赞助方和主持人 Eric Townsend 与 Patrick Suresna 对因基于 Macro Voices 上所呈现的信息或观点所作投资决策而导致的损失不承担任何责任。

Macro Voices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna, shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Macro Voices.

Macro Voices 得到 bigpicturetrading.com 的赞助以及 fourth turning capital management LLC 的资金支持才得以实现。

Macro Voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com and by funding from fourth turning capital management LLC.

如需更多信息，请访问 macrovoices.com。

For more information, visit macrovoices.com.