MacroVoices #536 Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us

自2019年以来，成长股和价值股的表现差距已经明显失效了。

Growth versus value has failed here a lot since 2019.

过去一周出现了显著变化。

Big move over the last week.

幅度很大。

Big move.

我觉得这可能是价值股强势反弹的开端，只要你想想巴菲特这样的投资者。

And I think this is the beginning of a colossal move over toward value because if you think of value companies like, if you look at Buffett.

巴菲特和伯克希尔最近一周的表现远远领先，因为他们持有大量拥有实物资产的公司，比如西方石油、埃克森美孚这类企业。

Buffett, Berkshire, big outperformance the last week or so from Berkshire, but they own a lot of companies that control hard assets, the Occidentals, Petroleum's of the world.

对吧？

Right?

现在很多价值股都掌控着石油、天然气、原材料这些资源，这部分市场其实被严重低估了。

So value companies, many of them today control oil and gas, natural gas, materials, and so that's a really colossal under owned part of the market.

现在纳斯达克100指数里有四万亿美元，大部分都是成长股，再加上一波又一波的科技公司IPO，市场对科技股的配置已经严重过头了。一旦轮动启动，资金肯定会大规模从成长股转向价值股。

And so if you have 41,000,000,000,000 on the Nasdaq 100, which is a lot of that's growth stocks, and you got these big IPOs and kind of like a massive overdose in the market on technology, when this rotation comes, you're gonna see a big move out of growth into value.

这周已经明显开始了，我觉得后面还有更大的空间。

You can see it's really started this week, and I see a lot more ahead.

再看第12页，你会发现标普500里头大量科技股正在往罗素2000转移，那个楔形结构正在被打破，这势头相当强劲。

And then on slide 12, if you look at right there, big move out of the S and P 500, which is a lot of tech stocks over toward the Russell 2,000, and you gotta you're breaking that down wedge there, which I think is pretty powerful move.

如果市场涌入太多新股，新发行的股票和债券把大量资金抽走，资金就会大规模从标普500回流到罗素2000。

So if you go into a period where there's too many IPOs that are coming in, there's too much money being sucked out of the market with new offerings and bond deals, You'll see a great migration out of the S and P back over toward the Russell two thousand.

这也是这个策略里很重要的一环。

And so that's an important part of this trade.

下一个要看的是第14页的油服板块。

The the next one is oil services on slide number 14.

今年表现非常突出。

Big outperformance this year.

里面有不少价值型公司，比如威德福、斯伦贝谢这些大厂。

A lot of value names in there, the Weatherfords of the world, the Schlumberger's.

它们手握大量优质资产。

They control a lot of valuable assets.

斯伦贝谢这家公司的AI潜力，可以说是当今市场上我见过的最令人兴奋的投资机会之一。

The artificial intelligence potential of Schlumberger or SLB is literally one of the most exciting trades or investments I can think of in the market today.

大家都盯着芯片股。

Everyone's in the chips.

人们得开始想想，还有哪些领域能从人工智能中受益。

People have to start thinking of other parts of the market they're gonna benefit from artificial intelligence.

油服行业就是其中一个大机会，你看看它相对于标普500的强劲表现就明白了。

The oil services is a big one, and you could see their big outperformance versus the S and P.

拉里，咱们继续聊聊AI这个话题。

Larry, let's stay on that AI theme.

还有哪些行业会从人工智能中受益？

What other parts of the market are beneficiaries of artificial intelligence?

埃里克，看第18页的图表。

Erik, number 18 slide.

这个简直让人震惊。

This is the mind blower.

对吧？

Right?

过去三十年，我们一直被灌输，尤其是最近十年，说婴儿潮一代都要八十岁了。

So over the last thirty years, we've been lectured and lectured, especially the last ten years, that the baby boomers are turning 80 years old.

实际上，普通婴儿潮一代大概七十岁左右。

The average boomer is probably 70, 70 years old.

他们掌控着七万九千亿美元的财富。

They control 79,000,000,000,000 of wealth.

华尔街一直在告诉我们，必须投资医疗保健。

Wall Street's been lecturing us, you have to belong healthcare.

过去十五年、二十年，每个分析师都在反复强调这一点。

Every analyst has been preaching this for the last fifteen, twenty years.

可结果呢？尽管婴儿潮一代人数庞大，医疗保健在标普500中的占比却从16%降到了8%。

And lo and behold, health care as a percentage of the S and P 500 has gone from sixteen percent to eight percent with all of these baby boomers.

其中一个加速的原因是，人们正在抛售医疗股，为科技股腾出空间，比如SpaceX这样的公司。

One of the reasons why it's accelerating is that people are selling health care stocks to make room for tech stocks, right, to make room for the SpaceXs of the world.

所以医疗板块相对于科技板块来说便宜得非常有吸引力，这种状况其实从2000年就开始了。

So the cheapness of health care relative to tech is extremely attractive, and it goes back to the year 2000.

就像你说的，那会儿AOL和时代华纳合并，市场出现了一个大转折，从2000年到2002年，医疗和必需消费品彻底压过了科技股。

Like you said, with that AOL Time Warner deal, you kinda had a big break, and health care and staples really destroyed technology from 2000 to 2002.

但归根结底，现在的医疗板块在市场里还是便宜得离谱，过去两个月，不仅有人抛售医疗股来给科技股腾空间，还有大量量化动量型投资者在进场。

But at the end of the day, health care today is such a cheap part of the market, and you've had in the last two months, you've had not only people selling health care to make room for tech stocks, but you've had a lot of quantitative momentum players in the market.

你猜他们干了什么？

And guess what they're doing?

他们一路做多高动量股票，比如半导体，同时做空低动量的必需消费品和医疗股。

They've been going long momentum, which is what we call high momentum stocks like semiconductors, and they've been short, low momentum, staples and health care.

这简直就是完美风暴。

So it's like a perfect storm.

量化交易者在推高这种低价效应，与此同时，还有不少资产管理人为了给那些大型科技IPO让路，不断减持医疗股。

You've got a lot of quants playing this game that are they're really creating incredible cheapness in the health care space, but at the same time, you have a lot of asset managers that are selling down health care to make room for all these big tech IPOs.

在我看来，这为未来五年创造了一个巨大的机会。

To me, this creates a colossal opportunity, an incredible opportunity looking forward for the next five years.

你应该减少科技股的持仓，转而增加对医疗保健板块的配置。

You want to be selling down your exposure to technology and increasing your to health care.

Erik，看一下第20页的幻灯片。

Look at slide number 20, Erik.

看看这个动量因子的表现。

Look at this factor momentum momentum factor.

它跟以往的市场周期相比，已经严重偏离了正常水平。

It's way, way out of whack relative to the previous regimes.

所以再次强调，动量策略现在很明显：大家都做多高动量股票，比如半导体，同时做空医疗保健。从这里可以看到，我们正处在极为罕见的区间。我认为，随着月底和季度末临近，尤其是进入下半年，市场很可能会出现一次大规模转向——从高动量的半导体和激进成长股，转向低动量的医疗保健板块。

And so once again, momentum, you see there everyone's long aggressive momentum, which is the semiconductors, everyone's short healthcare, and as you can see here, we're at very rare territory, and I think with quarter end month end coming up at the end of the month into the second half of the year, the probability that we have a huge turn here, I think, is a very high probability of a move out of high momentum into low momentum, so out of the semiconductors and aggressive growth over toward health care.

我觉得下半年，医疗保健板块会是大赢家。

I think it's gonna be a big winner in the second half of the year.

Larry，你说的这些我完全认同，但我还想从另一个角度跟你探讨一下：现在有太多人盯着这个市场说，AI和计算机现在这么聪明。但我的反应是，等等，发明人工智能的人类本身也极其聪明，而那些真正创造这一切的顶尖人才，他们正在把股票尽快卖给接盘侠。

Larry, everything you're saying is really resonating for me, but it's from a different angle I wanna run past you, which is so many tourists are looking at this saying, but AI and computers are so smart now, and my reaction is, wait a minute, the humans who invented artificial intelligence are pretty darn smart too, and what they all seem to be doing, the very smartest of them, ones who truly invented this stuff, is they're selling their equity to bag holders as fast as they can.

目前Anthropic、OpenAI和SpaceX这些大型科技私有独角兽公司，要么准备上市，要么像谷歌那样在进行二次发售，竞争非常激烈。

There's a race on right now between Anthropic and OpenAI and SpaceX, All of these big technology private unicorn companies are either going public or in the case of Google doing secondaries.

好像所有人都在同时把股票卖给散户。

Seems like everybody's trying to sell stock to retail at the same time.

我这样理解对吗？这其实是在印证你刚才说的，从动量转向价值的过程？

Am I interpreting that correctly as reinforcing what you just said about this transfer from momentum to value?

没错。

Yes.

杰克·博格尔要是还在，怕是要气得从棺材里翻过身来。

Jack Bogle, God rest his soul, is rolling over in his grave.

标普500当初设计出来的时候，初衷是再好不过了，可被动投资者现在把它给搞垮了。

The S and P five hundred was constructed and invented with the best of intentions, and passive investors have crushed it.

标普500、纳斯达克，这些都只是被动指数。

The S and P five hundred, the Nasdaq, these are passive indexes.

以前，那些主动管理资金的基金经理手里的钱，比这些指数多得多。

In the old days, active managers that run money had more capital than these indexes.

今天我有个理论，我们在书里提过，埃里克——当被动投资占比达到60%、65%的时候，就意味着有太多资金被锁在那些从不思考的指数里了。

Today, I have a theory that we laid out in our book, Erik, is that once you get near 60%, 65% passive versus active, All that means is so much capital is in indexes that are not thinking.

他们只是被动持有这些股票。

They're just owning things.

一旦这样下去，这些指数就会变得越来越容易被操控。

When that happens, the indexes can become more and more and more gameable.

你现在就能在标普500的成分股调整中看到这种现象。

And you're seeing this on S and P 500 inclusion.

比如露露柠檬这种股票，一旦被纳入标普500。

Stocks like Lululemon come into the S and P 500.

所有懂行的人都提前知道，早就抢着买进去了。

Everybody the in the know crowd knows this, and they buy it up ahead of time.

IPO的情况也是同样的道理。

And so the same thing with these IPOs.

西海岸的亿万富翁投资者、风投机构，他们早就盯上了SpaceX这类公司。

The billionaire investors on the West Coast, the venture capital people, they have Think of SpaceX.

对吧？

Right?

2019年估值三百亿美元。

$30,000,000,000 valuation in 2019.

从三百亿涨到现在上市时的一万八千亿。

30,000,000,000 to now 1,800,000,000,000 when it comes public.

等它们上市后，像纳斯达克和标普这些指数会迅速把它们纳入，接下来一年就会发生。

And so when they come public and they they are accelerating these these IPOs into the indexes like you saw with the Nasdaq, the S and P, it's gonna be over the next year.

被动投资者成了接盘侠，对手却是那些早已参与这些IPO、深耕十年的亿万富翁投资者。

So passive investors are the bag holders up against really billionaire investors that have been in these IPOs for a decade now and maturing.

以前微软上市时估值还不到十亿美元。

In the old days, Microsoft came public at less than $1,000,000,000.

对吧？

Right?

Facebook上市时估值已经是一千亿了。

Facebook came public at 100,000,000,000.

对吧？

Right?

现在公司上市时的估值已经高达1.8万亿美元了。

And now companies are coming public at 1,800,000,000,000.

这简直是完全违背常理。

It's a colossal failure of common sense.

这样下去，指数基金迟早要被毁掉。

They're gonna destroy indexing.

明白吗？

Okay?

本来应该有规则来阻止这种事，可现在规则却被改得偏向让亿万富翁把股票甩给散户。

Because there should be rules against this, but the rules are being bent in favor of letting the billionaires dump stock in the hands of retail.

这感觉确实就是正在发生的事。

That sure feels like what's going on.

我们翻到第21页吧。

Let's move on to page 21.

直观外科是什么？

What's intuitive surgical?

上周，埃里克，我们跟一个亿万富翁家族办公室开了场私密会议。

So last week, Erik, we hosted a private call with a billionaire family office.

我通常会搞这种‘对决’，把一个看多和一个看空的专家请到同一个Zoom会议室里。

And what I try to do is I do these cage matches where I get a good bull and a good bear in the room, in like a Zoom room.

我把这叫作‘对决’。

And I call them the cage matches.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

他们吵得你死我活。

They fight to the death.

简直笑死人了，但真的能学到很多东西。

It's absolutely hilarious, but you learn so much.

想想医疗行业吧。

And think about health care.

刚才我们聊的那些，大家普遍看多、一路买入的势头，现在却在抛售医疗股，你就看看Intuitive Surgical就知道了。

Everything we talked about five minutes ago with everyone's long momentum been selling down health care, look at Intuitive Surgical.

当你跟那些在家族办公室、专注人工智能医疗领域的人交谈时。

And then when you talk to people in the family office space that are in artificial intelligence medical sector.

对吧？

Right?

这些亿万富翁家族办公室的人，可是坐在前排的。

So billionaire family office, they're on the front row seat.

他们在这一领域的信息优势，远超大多数投资者。

The intelligence that they have relative to most investors in that sector is off the charts.

他们跟我提到，特别看好像美敦力、百特这样的公司，你知道为什么吗？

And they made the point to me that they love the surgicals of the world, the Baxter's, because guess what?

你就想想Intuitive这家公司。

Just think of intuitive.

他们掌握着最顶尖的数据。

They have the best data.

最好的数据，就像十年前的特斯拉一样。

The best data so think of like Tesla ten, twenty years ago or ten years ago.

他们把全球所有道路系统的数据都收集起来了，现在这些数据全在特斯拉手里。

What they've done with the data on the roads, like every road system in the world now, all that data is in the hands of Tesla.

对吧？

Right?

Intuitive Surgical 也是同样的情况。

Same thing with Intuitive Surgical.

现在的医生用机器人可以给其他国家的病人做手术，而未来人工智能的发展中，真正能从中获益最大的，就是像 Intuitive 这样掌握着宝贵数据的公司。

Doctors today with robotics can operate on patients in other countries, and the data in the future of artificial intelligence, the big beneficiaries are companies like Intuitive that have that incredibly valuable data.

我觉得这一点，正如我之前说的，是人工智能医疗领域顶级家族办公室都在跟我强调的。

I think and I'm hearing this from the, like I said, the top family offices in the AI medical field.

这些股票被忽视了，持仓的人太少了。

These socks are unloved, under owned.

大家都挤在芯片股里。

Everyone's in the chips.

如果你现在在200周均线附近买入Intuitive Surgical，在我们看来，这简直是绝佳的买入机会，因为未来五到十年，数据加上人工智能的驱动，会把Intuitive Surgical变成一台赚钱机器。

And if you buy Intuitive Surgical now on the two hundred week moving average, to us, that's a really screaming buy because over the next ten years, five years, the data and the artificial intelligence that's gonna take that data, it's gonna turn Intuitive Surgical into a absolute profit beast.

第22页提到的电气石油是什么？

What's tourmaline oil on page 22?

明白了。

Okay.

这是最后一个想法。

That's our last idea.

上周我们接触的另一个家族办公室，我们和对冲基金、共同基金以及养老基金都有Bloomberg聊天群，平时在纽约也会办这种投资点子晚餐会。

So another family office that we spoke to last week, we have a Bloomberg chat with hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds, and we do these ideas dinners in New York.

下周我们要去多伦多和蒙特利尔。

Next week, we're gonna be in Toronto and Montreal.

过去十天里，我们把一些大型石油对冲基金、共同基金和养老基金聚在一起，讨论了被困天然气的问题。

And so the last ten days, we got some of these big oil hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds in a room, and we had a about trapped gas.

这将是下一个AI投资方向。

This is the next artificial intelligence play.

你想想看。

So think about this.

未来五年，全球计划建成八百到一千个数据中心。

There's supposed to be 800 to a thousand data centers built over the next five years and around the world.

总投入高达五千亿美元。

5,000,000,000,000 of spending.

对吧？

Right?

有些数据中心建的位置不对，就是人们常说的‘别建在我家后院’。

Some of those data centers are in the wrong places, what we call NIMBY, not my backyard.

对吧？

Right?

因此，全国各地都在对建在不合适地点的数据中心出现抵制情绪。

And so you're seeing some political pushback around the country for data centers that are in the wrong places.

你猜怎么着？

Guess what?

像加拿大的Tourmaline这样的公司，手里就有天然气资源。

There are companies like Tourmaline in Canada that have gas.

这些气被困住了。

It's trapped.

很难开采出来。

It's difficult to get to.

未来五到十年，加拿大尤其是得克萨斯州这些被困的天然气都将被开发利用，变得极其值钱——你可以把数据中心建过去，就近用天然气发电，把原本因为运输困难而几乎没价值的天然气充分利用起来。

Over the next five, ten years, all of this trapped gas in Canada, especially in Texas, is gonna be harnessed and extremely valuable because you're gonna be able to take those data centers and move them in and create a, like, a private turbine near that natural gas and really harness that cheap, relatively worthless natural gas because it's trapped.

所以，你把原本困住的天然气，变成了数据中心可用的能源。

And so you're taking trapped gas, and you're making it available to data centers.

现在，Tourmaline公司正在和大型云服务商洽谈合作。

And tourmaline's in discussion with hyperscalers right now.

我觉得，未来五到十年，这会是最佳的投资机会之一，再加上当前的政治背景。

I think this is one of the best trades over the next five, ten years, plus the political backdrop.

加拿大的基尔尼地区对这种投资理念的抵触要小得多。

Kearny in Canada relative to is far less hostile to this investment philosophy.

最后一点，这场战争——大型对冲基金在聊天里反复跟我们提到，伊拉克战争、霍尔木兹海峡和液化天然气，正在让美国和加拿大的天然气变得比以往任何时候都更值钱。

And the last thing is with the war, the one of the points that the big hedge funds have been making to us in the chat, this war in Iraq and the Strait Of Hormuz and LNG, what it's doing is it's making US natural gas and Canadian natural gas much more valuable.

如果你是全球液化天然气买家，而你的天然气被困在中东，那你就惨了。

Because if you're a global buyer of LNG and your and your gas has been trapped in The Middle East, you know, you're burnt.

你肯定不开心。

You're not happy.

这简直就像美国袭击了伊朗，但实际上，他们抬高了美国和加拿大天然气资产的价值。

And it's almost like America, you know, attacked Iran, but what they've actually done is they've increased the value of US and Canadian gas assets.

我不确定这是否是故意的，但你想想全球液化天然气买家的处境。

I don't know if that was intentional, but think about the buyers of natural gas globally of LNG.

未来五到十年，图尔马林和美国天然气出口商将从中获得巨大收益。

It's gonna benefit tourmaline and US natural gas exporters dramatically over the next five, ten years.

我觉得图尔马林的下跌空间只有20%。

I think your I think tourmaline, your downside's 20%.

而上涨空间能达到200%。

Your upside's 200%.

我现在想转到你演示文稿的最后一页，第23页，也就是Sprout实物铀信托。

I wanna move on now to your final slide in the deck, slide 23, which is the Sprout Physical Uranium Trust.

我想请你再深入讲讲这个话题，顺便也聊聊铀矿企业，因为说实话，我在听市场说话的时候确实需要一些帮助，我待会儿会解释为什么。

I'm gonna ask you to expand this topic a little bit more to also include the uranium miners, if we could talk about that as well, because I've gotta tell you, I need some help listening when markets speak, and I'll tell you exactly why.

我对铀和铀矿企业长期看多，态度再坚定不过了，因为即便不考虑那些小型模块化反应堆和先进核反应堆，目前核能领域的消息面也已经好到不能再好了。

I couldn't possibly be more long term bullish on uranium and uranium miners because I think the nuclear news flow couldn't possibly be better even before you consider all these SMRs and advanced reactors and all that stuff.

我们早就面临铀供应缺口的问题，单是维持现有在运反应堆的运转，就已经不够用了，更别说那些还没建起来的了。

We already had a uranium deficit on the horizon that just to run the reactors that are already in place that haven't been built yet.

所以，从长期来看，我看不出有什么理由不看多，只有一个例外——这个领域向来是散户参与度高、波动剧烈的典型。

So I just can't think of any reason not to be bullish long term except for one thing, which is this is a famously high retail participation, high volatility sector.

Sprott铀信托基金可能还好，但铀矿股确实是散户扎堆、价格剧烈波动的板块。

Not so much the Sprott uranium trust, but the miners are a really high volatility, high retail participation sector.

如果我们刚才聊到的那些动量股正站在大幅抛售的边缘，而市场又出现系统性风险事件，比如伊朗局势进一步恶化，引发一连串负面冲击，我真不敢想象铀矿股会遭到怎样的重创。

And if what we just talked about a few minutes ago about the momentum stocks maybe being right on the precipice of a big sell off, if we get a broad market risk event, if this Iran war gets worse and it leads to a bunch of negative events in the market, I can't imagine the uranium miners not getting slammed by that.

遇到这种情况，你会怎么应对？

What do you do in a situation like that?

一方面，我确实极度看多；但另一方面，我也非常担心市场接下来可能发生的变故。

You know, I could be super bullish on one hand, but I'm really concerned about what could happen in the market next.

我在啤酒陷阱的讨论中一直在想，我们总是在铀矿产品本身和相关公司之间来回切换，比如卡梅科、下一代企业、丹尼森矿业这些公司。

So what I've been thinking about at the Beer Trap support, we go back and forth between the uranium commodity and the companies, you know, the Camecos of the world, the next gens, the Denison mines.

当市场短期表现不佳时，比如霍尔木兹海峡局势紧张、通胀压力等各种因素袭来，就像你之前说的，埃里克，高贝塔板块往往比原材料本身跌得更惨。

And what I try to do is when the market when I don't like the market short term in terms of straight of Hormuz, in terms of all kinds of things coming at us with inflation, like you said, Erik, high beta sectors get hammered much more than the commodity or in general.

铀矿和黄金矿业股都是典型的高贝塔板块。

So uranium, gold miners, they're a very high beta sector.

但现在有趣的是，SRUUF今年到目前为止跌了5%，快6%了，而卡梅科股价却还涨了4%。

But what's interesting with uranium now, the SRUUF, it's down 5% year to date, almost six, but Cameco's up 4% still.

所以，当原材料表现落后时，我就特别兴奋，我觉得现在该买UR和M或者NUKZ这类持有这些公司的ETF了。

So the underperformance of the commodity gets me excited right now, and I think I want to buy the UR and M or the NUKZ, which is the ETFs that own these companies.

我想等市场再跌一点，像去年四五月2025年贸易战期间那种程度的回调时再出手。

I want to buy them on a little bit more pain like we had last April, May 2025 with the trade war.

你看这些回撤幅度，埃里克，你真是说到点子上了。

You look at the drawdowns, like you just like you nailed it, Erik.

这些公司确实特别容易受到市场波动的影响。

These companies really are susceptible to market volatility.

所以如果你预期未来会有波动，最好先持有铀矿原料，等市场出现大幅回调时再转投矿业公司。

And so you wanna be in the commodity if you expect volatility ahead, and then you wanna rotate into the miners during that big kind of huge drawdown in the market.

两周前我们办了一场电话会议，邀请了铀领域一家知名家族办公室的人，他提到了几个非常关键的观点。

So we hosted a call two weeks ago with a famous family office in the uranium space, and he made a couple of great points.

首先，他完全认同你关于2027到2028年供需缺口的看法。

First of all, he completely agrees with you around the 02/2728 deficits.

但我觉得他讲得最吸引人的，是关于供需关系的分析。

And but I think the sexiest part of his story is supply and demand.

他跟我提到一点，我也从全球一些最顶尖的投资者那里听到了类似说法：在供应端，像NextGen、Cameco、Denison这些公司，往往对产能的承诺过于乐观。

And it's the point that he made to me, and I'm hearing I'm hearing this from some of the most sophisticated investors in the world, and that is on the supply side, the next gens, the Camecos, the Denizens, they tend to overpromise on production.

比如，那座预计在本十年后期投产的新矿，很多熟悉铀行业的家族办公室都认为，他们很可能把投产时间提前了一到两年。

And so, for example, that next gen mine that's supposed to come on in later this decade, a lot of the people a lot of the family offices that are close to the uranium space think that they're probably exaggerating by a year or two.

所以未来几年的供应其实存在隐患，根源就在于这些公司对产能的夸大预测。

And so you have a supply problem because of because of the kind of over exaggeration of production in the years to come.

这就是供应端真正的问题所在。

So that that's where the supply problem is.

从需求端来看，我们在美国做的事情已经非常明显了。

On the demand side, it's so obvious with what we're doing in The United States.

我们得建新核电站，这可是关乎国家安全的大事，未来两三年内，核能发电肯定会大力扩张。

We need we need to build I mean, The United States, this is a real this is a real national security problem, and so we're gonna really ramp up nuclear power the next two, three years in terms of in terms of nuclear power plants.

但这需要时间。

It's gonna take a while.

对吧？

Right?

全球范围内，各国的态度也变得更积极了，比如德国、日本这些国家。

And around the world, countries are more friendly now, the Germanys of the world, the Japans of the world.

所以，需求正在快速上升。

So you have this increase of demand that's coming at us.

而供应却跟不上，下一代核电站要等到投产，还得等上好几年。

You've a shortness of supply, the amount by the time that it's going to take NextGen to get that facility up and running.

再加上人才大量流失的问题。

And then you have the big brain drain.

说到人才流失，你就想想萨斯喀彻温省，还有全球各地的铀矿资源。

So if you think of brain drain, think of, like, Saskatchewan, and think of, like, uranium assets around the world.

这些地方都不好去。

They're hard to get to.

有环保法规的限制，而且很多人才已经转去做比特币挖矿了。

There's environmental regulations, and a lot of the talent has moved into Bitcoin mining, for example.

通常在长期的熊市里——那种持续五到十年、特别艰难的熊市——最顶尖的工程师、最聪明的人才，都会离开这个行业，转投全球其他热门领域，比如人工智能或者比特币挖矿。

Like, a lot of times what happens in bear markets is that the bear markets over five or ten years that are really grueling, nasty bear markets, they actually you see the best engineers, the best intelligence, the best brainpower kinda leaves the sector for other hot parts of the markets around the world, whether it be artificial intelligence or whether it be Bitcoin mining.

对我来说，这才是这个故事里最吸引人的部分。

And so to me, that's a really sexy part of the story.

所以这又回到了一个供应问题。

And so that's once again, that's a supply issue.

我们正面临2028到2029年一场巨大的供需危机。

So we're looking at 02/2829 with a massive supply demand problem.

所以SRUUF，我们在第一季度行情上涨时，已经卖出了一些。

So SRUUF, we sold some in our trade alerts in the first quarter on that kind of move up.

我们一直在低位买入，而且我觉得未来两三年的前景非常明朗。

We're buying we've been buying down here, and, you know, I really see a beautiful outlook over the next two, three years.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

这个故事里最重要的一环，其实是长期合约买家。

The most important part of the story is the contract buyers.

那些大型电力公司过去十年一直按兵不动，毕竟之前的熊市让他们养成了不轻易抢购铀矿的习惯。

The contract buyers, the major utilities, they've been sitting on their hands the last decade because once again, the bear market conditioned them to really not panic buy on uranium.

但如果你去跟一线的人聊，比如那些贴近市场、真正深入前线的大型家族办公室，你会发现，这些合约买家其实已经在暗中开始紧张了。

But when you talk to people on the front lines, the big family offices that are close and really on the front lines, boots on the ground type people, they see the contract buyers really starting to get nervous behind the scenes.

接下来，采购量肯定会迅速上升。

You're gonna see the ramp up in purchases.

换句话说，铀市场根本不是现货市场。

In other words, uranium's not a spot market.

在大宗商品领域，根本就没有期货交易。

Like in the commodity market, there's no futures.

所以在未来十二到十八个月内，这些合同买家必须加大采购力度，因为他们已经看清了供需失衡的问题。

So these contract buyers are really gonna have to step up the next twelve to eighteen months because they see the supply and demand problem.

因此，目前铀矿的投资回报比是我见过的最具吸引力的入场时机之一。

So the risk reward in uranium now is absolutely one of the most attractive entry points for the commodity that I've ever seen.

但你的看法是，现在就投资铀矿，等那种还没发生的痛苦出现后再转向矿业股。

But your take on it is invest in the commodity now, rotate into the miners only after the pain that hasn't quite happened yet.

去年贸易战的时候，我们就见过这种情况。

And that's what we saw last year with the trade war.

简直荒唐至极。

It was just absolutely ridiculous.

整个板块都被疯狂抛售。

The sector was viciously for sale.

2024年夏天日元危机、套利交易崩盘时，情况也是一模一样。

Same thing in the summer of two thousand twenty four with the Japanese yen crisis, the carry trade blow up.

在这两次事件中，我都想说的是，这个商品——

In both instances, the commodity I'm sorry.

铀矿生产商的股价在很短的时间内就跌了百分之四十到四十五。

Well, I should say the producers on the uranium side were down like 40%, 45% in a short very short order.

就像你刚才说的，散户、游客，还有那些扛不住压力的投资者都在场，这就好比打扑克时有人突然加注，市场突然剧烈波动也是同样的道理。

Because once again, like you said, retail, tourists, some weak hands at the table, and all that means is you know, imagine you're playing a poker game, somebody does a big raise, and that's like the same thing as a big shock in the market.

市场一有剧烈震荡，很多投机者就被吓回去了，转身就走。

A shock in the market knocks a lot of the tourists back on the bus, and then they leave and go home.

他们干脆收手回家。

They take their ball and go home.

拉里，真的非常感谢你再次带来这么精彩的访谈。

Well, Larry, I can't thank you enough for another terrific interview.

在你走之前，能不能简单说说你在《熊陷阱报告》里为机构投资者做些什么？

Before I let you go, let's just touch on what you do at the Bear Traps Report for our institutional audience.

你还是《当市场说话时，如何倾听》这本书的作者，我觉得这可能是金融类书籍里最棒的书名了。

You're also a bestselling author of what I think is the best title for a finance book ever conceived, which is How to Listen When Markets Speak.

我真的很为埃里克感到骄傲。

Well, I'm really proud of Erik.

真不敢相信，我们这两本书加起来销量已经突破一百万册了，一本叫《常识的惨败》，另一本叫《当市场说话时，如何倾听》。

I mean, can't believe that that we have two books with now about a million copies sold, over a million copies, with the colossal failure of common sense and how to listen when markets speak.

非常感谢你，也感谢全世界所有支持我们的人。

I'm so grateful to you and all of our supporters around the world.

网址是 infothebearetrapsreport.com。

It's infothebearetrapsreport.com.

我们为 Macro Voices 的听众提供优惠，因为这毕竟是一个面向机构的投资平台，我们致力于普及信息，但同时也希望让小额投资者负担得起。

What we do for Macro Voices audiences, we give people discounts because once again, it's an institutional platform where we share information, democratize information, but we want to make it affordable for the smaller investor

没错。

as well.

网址是 beartrapsreport.com。

That's at beartrapsreport.com.

帕特里克·塞雷萨和我会继续回来， Macro Voices 将在这里，macrovoices.com，持续为您播出。

Patrick Ceresna and I will be back as Macro Voices continues right here at macrovoices.com.

现在回到您的主持人，埃里克·汤森和帕特里克·塞雷萨。

Now back to your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

Erik，很高兴Larry又回来了。

Erik, it was great to have Larry back on the show.

各位听众，本周的交易精选下载链接已经在你们的Research Roundup邮件里了。

Now, listeners, you're gonna find the download link for this week's trade of the week in your Research Roundup email.

如果你没收到Research Roundup邮件，说明你还没在macrovoices.com上注册。

If you don't have a Research Roundup email, it means you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com.

直接去我们首页，点击Larry照片上方那个红色按钮，上面写着‘寻找下载内容’。

Just go to our homepage and click on the red button over Larry's picture saying, Looking for the Downloads.

Patrick，这周你的交易精选是什么？

Patrick, what's on deck for your trade

这周的交易精选是什么？

of the week this week?

Larry McDonald认为，我们可能正进入一个全新的市场阶段，资金会从拥挤的成长股和动量股撤出，重新流向价值股、实物资产和那些被忽视的板块。

Larry McDonald's argument was that we may be entering a very different market regime where the leadership shifts away from crowded growth and momentum stocks and back toward value, hard assets and under owned sectors that have been left behind.

他特别提到的一个典型例子就是医疗健康行业。

One of the clearest examples he highlighted was health care.

尽管老龄化婴儿潮一代长期来看为医疗行业提供支撑，但投资者纷纷涌向人工智能、半导体和大型科技股，导致医疗板块被大幅抛售。

Despite the long term demographic support from aging baby boomers, health care has been aggressively sold down as investors crowded into AI, semiconductors, and mega cap technology.

因此，与其追逐那些已经吸走大部分投机资金的板块，本周的交易标的聚焦于布局医疗板块的轮动反弹——这是目前市场中被严重忽视且最不受待见的领域之一。

So rather than chasing the sectors that have already absorbed the majority of this speculative capital, this week's Trade of the Week is about positioning for a rotation back into health care, one of the most under owned and unloved parts of the market.

从交易结构上看，我打算通过医疗板块ETF（XLV）来表达这一观点。

From a trade construction standpoint, I want to express the view through the XLV, the health care sector ETF.

目前XLV的收盘价约为152.85美元，主要策略就是直接持有股票，参与这场看似正在启动的医疗板块轮动行情。

With XLV closing around a $152.85, the primary position is simply to own the shares and participate in what appears to be an emerging rotation back into health care.

不过，考虑到整体股市波动风险依然存在，我打算叠加一个低成本的期权领口策略，在控制短期下行风险的同时，保留上行参与的空间。

Now because broader equity market volatility remains a risk, I want to overlay a low cost option collar structure to define the near term downside while still leaving room for upside participation.

具体来说，我计划买入8月1日到期、行权价194.5美元的看跌期权，成本大约1.90美元，这个价位接近三月和四月的低点，构成了一个合理的下行保护位。

Specifically, I'm looking at buying the 08/01/1945 put for roughly a dollar 90, which sits near the March and April lows and creates a logical downside protection level.

为了对冲成本，我卖出8月1日到期、行权价196.5美元的备兑看涨期权，权利金约为1.24美元。

To help finance that hedge, I'm selling the 08/01/1965 covered call for around a dollar 24.

这样算下来，净对冲成本降至约66美分，在持股基础上构建了一个成本高效、风险可控的领口策略。

That reduces the net hedge cost to approximately 66¢, creating a carry efficient collar around the long stock position.

核心思路是在把握医疗板块轮动机会的同时，通过期权市场为仓位设定一个短期的风险预算。

The idea is to maintain strategic equity exposure to the health care rotation while using the options market to define a short term risk budget around the position.

从收益结构来看，保护性看跌期权将下行风险锁定在145美元，持仓至到期的最大损失约为每股8.51美元；而上方的备兑看涨期权则将收益上限设在165美元左右，未来几个月仍保留约11.49美元的上涨空间。

From a payoff perspective, the protective put defines the downside floor to $145 limiting risk through expiration to approximately $8.51 per share, while on the upside, the covered call caps gains to about a $165, leaving approximately $11.49 of upside potential over the next few months.

最终形成的是一个以持股为主、叠加期权对冲的策略，既能防范短期市场波动，又能在XLV继续突破时充分捕捉上行潜力。

The result is a stock first investment in a potential health care rotation with a defined risk option overlay designed to protect against short term market turbulence while still allowing meaningful upside if the XLV continues to break out.

帕特里克，每周一在《宏观交易》的网络研讨会上，你都会向散户投资者详解我们最新一期的交易策略。

Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week.

如果听众想更深入地了解如何操作这些交易，别错过在bigpicturetrading.com申请为期十四天的免费试用。

For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a fourteen day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com.

接下来，我们进入赛后图表分析。

Now let's dive into the postgame chart deck.

好的，埃里克。

Alright, Erik.

我们来聊聊股市情况。

Let's dive into the equity markets.

你心里在想什么？

What's on your mind?

股市的涨势终于破了，但我认为这跟霍尔木兹危机没什么关系。

Well, the stock market rally finally broke, but I don't think the Hormuz crisis had anything to do with it.

尽管和平谈判彻底破裂，局势也大幅升级，油价却完全没有明显上涨。

Oil hasn't seen any meaningful upside response despite a complete failure of the peace deal negotiations and a major kinetic escalation.

作为长期投资者，我觉得我们该退一步，看看2027年可能会带来什么。

As a long term investor, I think we need to step back and look at the big picture of what 2027 could bring.

我们即将迎来有史以来最大的三笔IPO，我说的是真的很大——最大的一笔是沙特阿美，募资250亿美元。

We've got the three biggest IPOs ever, ever I mean, by a lot, the biggest one ever was 25,000,000,000 Saudi Aramco.

现在我们要面对的是万亿级估值的公司，单笔IPO募资高达800亿美元，SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic这三家都在未来六个月左右准备上市。

Now we're talking about trillion dollar capitalizations, $80,000,000,000 raise on a single IPO, and there's three of them on that scale between SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all on deck in the next probably six months.

那么，这两千到两千五百亿美元的募资资金从哪儿来？

So where is the 200 to $250,000,000,000 of immediate capital raises?

这笔钱到底会从哪里流出？

Where's that money going to come from?

当然，这些新股会和其他股票竞争资本配置。

Well, of course, it's going to compete with other equities, the rest of the stock market for capital allocation.

但我觉得最关键的是，全球最聪明的资金——那些科技公司的亿万富翁、创始人，像马斯克、阿尔特曼这些人——他们居然在同一时间决定，要把手里的私人股权卖给公众投资者，至少我是这么看的。

I think the biggest tell here though is all the smartest money in the world, the billionaires that run these companies, the founders, the Elon Musks, the Sam Altmans, these guys are all at the same moment deciding their next move should be to sell their private equity to public market bag holders or at least that's the way I'm seeing this.

不过，帕特里克，我觉得真正重要的不是这些IPO本身。

But I don't think the real story is the IPOs, Patrick.

我觉得问题出在这些股票的抛压上。

I think it's the overhang in those stocks.

如果你不太了解这个词，‘抛压’指的是受限股的数量。

For anyone not familiar with that term, overhang refers to the number of restricted shares.

这些公司的创始人和早期投资的风投，他们在IPO时持有的股份都是受限的，但锁定期一过，这些股份就会解禁。

The founders, the venture capitalists that funded the early stage development of these companies, their shares are all restricted at the time of the IPO, but they all come out of lockup.

以SpaceX为例，按比较激进的估计，解禁时间可能在2026年底左右。

In the case of SpaceX, on a pretty aggressive schedule, it's before the end of twenty twenty six, I think, around December or so.

所以别太在意那区区两千到两千五百亿美元的IPO募资额了。

So don't worry about the paltry little 200 to $250,000,000,000 of IPO direct raises.

想想看，到2027年底，将有三万亿美元的限售股解禁。

Think about the $3,000,000,000,000 of restricted shares that are going to be unlocked by the end of twenty twenty seven.

这里一万亿，那里一万亿，咱们说的可是真金白银。

A trillion here, a trillion there, you know, we're talking about real money folks.

meanwhile，伊朗局势可不太妙。

The Iran conflict meanwhile is not going well.

你不妨想象一下，2027年会是什么样子。

So just think about what 2027 is going to look like.

届时会有三万亿美元的股票解禁，一旦市场下跌，很多人肯定会忍不住抛售套现，毕竟他们在这类非流动性私募股权里熬了这么多年，也该拿回点收益了。

There's going to be $3,000,000,000,000 of equity that's being unlocked that people will be tempted, especially if markets are selling off, to get the heck out of and cash in, you know, collect their winnings from from the last however many years they've been in those private equities as a illiquid investment.

如果伊朗局势继续恶化，2027年的美国政局又会是什么样？

If the Iran conflict continues to not go well, well, what's The US political picture going to look like in 2027?

如果民主党在十一月的大选中拿下国会两院，我们很可能看到更多弹劾案、党派僵局，再加上三万亿内部持股集中解禁，全都撞在一块儿。

If the Democrats take both houses of Congress in the November election, we'd probably be looking at more impeachments, partisan gridlock, and 3,000,000,000,000 of insider shares coming out of lockup all at the same time.

这听起来简直就是一场大规模恐慌抛售的导火索。

Sounds like a recipe for maybe a lot of people panicking and just getting the heck out of the stock market.

所以我觉得，当我们认真看待2027年的前景时，其实有一个非常强劲的看跌情景，但很多人还没意识到。

So I think as we really consider what the outlook for 2027 is, there's a bear case that's pretty darn strong that I don't think a lot of people are thinking about.

埃里克，我完全同意你的看法，IPO肯定会成为整个夏天到第三季度的主线，关键在于它们能不能成功融到资。

Well, Erik, I will completely agree with you that the IPOs are going to be the story for the entire summer going into the third quarter and whether they'll be able to raise that capital.

不过我想专门聊聊图表，最近标普指数从7600点回落，测试了50日均线附近的7300点。

But I wanna specifically speak to the charts here for a moment because we had this correction from 7,600 down to testing 7,300 on the S and P along its fifty day moving average.

在我看来，这次回调非常关键，因为之前多头有足够的缓冲空间，能扛住这种抛售而不引发系统性抛压。

To me, this is a very key pullback because the bulls had a pretty good cushion, and they could absorb this type of a sell off without triggering systematic selling.

现在我们还处在关键节点——如果多头能挺过SpaceX的IPO，守住7300点，市场仍有希望反弹回前期高点，维持整体高位。

And we are still at that moment where if the bulls can get past the SpaceX IPO and keep the market pinned to the 7,300 area, then we could still see a rally in the markets back to its previous highs and and generally keep the market elevated.

但反过来，如果7300点守不住，系统性抛售就会启动。

I say that because if 7,300 on the other end is given out, there this is where we're gonna see some systematic selling kick in.

当然，没人能精确知道量化趋势跟踪基金从哪里开始卖，但很多人估计，标普指数一跌到7300左右，它们就会动手。

Obviously, there's no clarity exactly where CTAs kick in and are selling, but many estimate that that selling kicks in around 7,300 on the S and P.

所以如果市场再进一步走弱，可能会触发高达一千亿到一千五百亿美元的抛售，形成恶性循环——因为CTA基金会被迫平仓。

And so if we see any further deterioration, we may see as much as $100 to $150,000,000,000 to sell that would be a feedback mechanism of selling as CTAs would be forced to liquidate.

这种系统性抛售会真的发生吗，还是多头能守住关键点位？

Are we going to see that systematic selling kick in, or will the bulls be able to keep it above the trigger points?

从技术面来看，这正是我们需要解开的难题。

This is the puzzle to solve here technically.

目前我倾向于相信多头，毕竟SpaceX上市就在眼前，很多原本打算做结构性减仓的人应该已经出手了。

At this moment, I'm going to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt because here we are right before the SpaceX IPO, and many people that are funding this would have already done their structural selling.

所以这里很可能成为关键支撑位，我们必须密切留意。

So it might very well be a key support line where we're definitely going to watch.

不过，如果7300点失守，系统性抛售占了上风，标普指数重新测试7000点也不是没可能。

Now, the one thing I will say, if 7,300 does give out and systematic selling does dominate, the trip to retest 7,000 on the S and P could be in the cards.

那就会形成从高点到低点10%的回调。

That would be that 10% pullback from peak to trough.

现在这还不是我最看好的情形，但我们已经站在悬崖边上，一旦系统性抛售启动，7000点就是最合理的第一个目标。

At this moment, that's not my favorite scenario, but we are at the edge of that cliff, and if that systematic selling kicks in, that would be a logical first target.

好了，Erik。

Alright, Erik.

我们来聊聊美元吧。

Let's talk about this US dollar.

美元的涨势终于突破了99.5，这周又回到了100的阻力位。

Well, the dollar rally finally pushed through 99 and a half on the Dixie, up to resistance again at a 100 this week.

我早就料到会这样，结果果然如我所料。

I anticipated that that would be the case, and that's exactly what happened.

我觉得伊朗局势很可能会进一步升级。

I think the Iran conflict is likely to escalate from here.

如果真那样，美元至少还有可能冲到101.5。

If it does, I think there's more upside at least to $1.00 1 and a half on the Dixie.

美元迟早会见顶回落，而且可能跌得挺猛，但还没到那一步。

The dollar's eventually gonna top out and roll over and probably roll over hard, but not yet.

我觉得只有当伊朗冲突真正缓和下来，美元才会见顶，之后可能会有很长一段下跌空间，不过现在还没到那时候。

I think it's when the Iran conflict is really and truly winding down that we see the dollar top out, and then I think it probably has a long way to go to the downside, but I don't think we're there yet.

Erik，美元这事儿确实是个关键问题，它最近表现得非常强势，现在都快逼近52周新高了。

This is certainly the puzzle to solve here, Erik, on the dollar because it has been behaving very bullishly, and we are now approaching the fifty two week highs.

如果美元这次强势突破，创出新高，可能会在各个市场引发连锁反应，因为美元走强对其他资产价格的影响是全方位的。

And if the dollar here bullishly breaks to fresh new highs here on a bull impulse, it could send shock waves through the inter markets as a dollar bull can certainly has all sorts of implications on other asset pricing.

最近外汇市场一直很平静，几乎没什么动静，所以一旦突然出现突破，肯定会让不少交易员措手不及。

It's been a very stable, boring currency market, and there's been very little to nothing happening here, which means that if we did suddenly get a breakout, that would certainly catch a lot of traders off guard.

我们现在正好在这些高位附近交易。

We are right now trading right up along those highs.

欧元已经跌到了1.16以下。

That Euro's been weakening below $1.16.

现在关键要看这个阻力位到底能不能撑住，还是说美元接下来还会继续冲向102甚至103。

This is certainly a moment to see whether resistance actually holds or whether or not the US dollar has that journey to 102 or 103 ahead of it.

好了，Erik。

All right, Erik.

咱们来聊聊原油吧。

We got to talk crude oil here.

特朗普总统真该拿个奥斯卡，他光靠嘴就能把油价压下去，尽管所有事实都表明冲突远未结束，上周军事行动还明显升级了，但截至录播时，油价从上周五收盘以来连一美元都没涨。

Well, President Trump deserves an Oscar for his ability to jawbone the oil market down in the face of all the facts and evidence suggesting the conflict is far from over and with considerable kinetic escalation in the last week alone resulting in exactly zero increase at least as of recording time in oil prices whatsoever since last Friday's close.

自从上周五收盘以来，我们一点都没涨。

We're not up 1p over last Friday's close.

之前跌了不少。

We've been down quite a bit.

后来稍微回弹了一点，但上周五的说法是，协议马上就要签了。

We've recovered some of that downside, but the story last Friday was supposedly a deal was close at hand.

我们原本以为这周周一到周三就会正式签署。

We expected that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of this week is when the final signing was going to happen.

和平就在眼前。

Peace was close at hand.

上周五就是这么传的。

That was the story Friday.

从那以后，局势急剧升级了。

Since then, we've had a major escalation.

海峡再次完全封锁，军事冲突加剧，但油价纹丝不动。

The straits completely closed again, kinetic escalation, and oil prices are flat.

本周二，CNN统计了特朗普总统声称伊朗和平协议即将达成的次数。

On Tuesday of this week, CNN cataloged the number of times president Trump has said a peace deal with Iran is now imminent.

就快成了。

It's just around the corner.

就差几个小细节没敲定，和平协议就到手了。

All we have is just a few little details to work out and we've got the peace deal.

自2月28日以来，他一共说了38次。

He said that a total of 38 times since February 28.

我觉得现在应该是39次了，因为周二之后他又说了一次。

I think it's actually 39 now because there's been one since Tuesday.

所以我的推测是，投机者已经被吓出市场了。

So my hypothesis here is speculators have been scared out of the market.

为什么总统这么一通喊话，效果就这么好？

Why all of this jawboning by the president is so effective?

我不太确定，但看起来确实管用。

I'm not sure, but it seems to be working.

这把投机者吓得纷纷离场了。

It's scaring the speculators out of the market.

从价格走势就能看得很清楚，每次他这么说，声称和平协议就在眼前，油价就又被压低一次。

We're seeing clearly in the price action that every time he does this and says there's another peace deal at hand, it pushes oil prices back down lower.

说实话，这种招数居然真管用，但它确实有效。

It's amazing to me that that works, but it works.

实物市场并不具备前瞻性。

So the physical market is not forward looking.

我们没必要等到库存和储油罐真的耗尽，才看到实物市场重新定价。

We don't need to see the physical market reprice anything until we actually exhaust those buffers and storage tanks and so forth.

一旦这些储备用光了，实物市场就必须重新平衡，才能顺利交割月度期货合约。

Once that's exhausted, the physical market does need to rebalance in order to close the monthly futures contract.

供需关系必须重新调整。

There has to be a rebalancing of supply and demand.

通常情况下，投机者会提前预判这种结果，抢先布局，让价格慢慢上涨，直到实物市场最终完成供需平衡时，达到高潮。

Normally what happens is that outcome would be anticipated by speculators who would front run it, resulting in a gradual ramp up to a final crescendo when the physical market finally rebalances supply and demand.

我觉得，这些Truth Social上的帖子会继续让投机者望而却步，你知道的，随便一发就能让市场瞬间跌掉十块钱。

My expectation is speculators are going to continue to stay scared out of the market by all these truth social posts, which, you know, hey, they take a $10 bite out of the market in an instant.

如果你是投机者，肯定不想在不确定下一条Truth Social帖子什么时候出现的情况下还持有多头头寸，而且你心里也隐隐觉得，可能真有人手握内幕消息，而你正在跟他们对赌。

If you're a speculator, you don't want to be long in an environment when you don't know when the next truth social post is and you have at least a gut feeling that maybe some people do have that inside information and you're trading against them.

meanwhile，市场情绪调查显示，现在超过七成的市场参与者都预期价格会很快下跌。

Meanwhile, sentiment surveys say that over 75% of market participants now expect lower prices and soon.

但如果他们都错了——我觉得他们大概率会错，那一旦被证明是错的，市场反扑起来会极其猛烈。

Now, if they're all wrong, and I think they probably will be proven wrong, the repositioning will be extremely violent once they're proven wrong.

所以当真正的游戏开始时，也就是当实物市场不得不靠价格机制来解决供需失衡的时候，那些投机者很可能会一窝蜂地冲进来。

So when it suddenly becomes game on time, in other words, when the physical market really does have to resolve an imbalance that can only be resolved through the price mechanism, the specs, I think, will pile in all at once.

他们一直不敢进场。

They've been afraid to get in this market.

这种恐惧会从担心被下一条Truth Social帖子套住，转变为害怕错过有史以来最大的价格暴涨。

That fear, I think, will shift from fear of getting trapped by the next Truth Social post into fear of missing out on the biggest price spike of all time.

这意味着，一旦实物市场真的引发价格飙升，那些本该提前几周就布局的投机者，会同时一拥而入。

So that means that when the physical market forces a price spike, when it comes, you're going to see the speculators that normally would have front run it by several weeks all diving in at once.

所有人都在同一时间涌进来，我觉得结果可能是，一旦价格飙升，它的突然性和剧烈程度会远超以往——毕竟之前那些言论把投机者都吓跑了。

Everybody piles on at the same time, and I think the result could be that it makes that price spike when it happens both much more sudden and much more violent than it would have been without all the jawboning scaring specs out of the market.

这一切都基于我个人的判断：我们离和平协议还远得很，而且根本不可能达成真正的协议，因为核问题上的分歧根本无法调和。

All of this is predicated on my personal analysis that we're nowhere close to a peace deal and that we can't realistically come to one because disagreement on the nuclear file is frankly irreconcilable.

但如果我错了，而市场上另外那70%的人是对的，那下周就会迎来重大和平协议。

Now, if I'm wrong about that and the other 70% of the market are right, then the big piece deal wins next week.

一切都和平了。

It's all peace.

一切结束了。

Everything's over.

那完全是另一种局面。

You know, it's a completely different outlook.

我觉得这种可能性微乎其微，不过嘛，我也可能错。

I see that as profoundly unlikely, but hey, I could be wrong.

我以前也犯过错。

I've been wrong before.

埃里克，说到原油的走势图，特别有意思的是，价格现在被压缩成一个巨大的水平三角形态。

Well, Erik, when we're talking about oil's chart, it is fascinating how this is coiled up into one big horizontal triangle pattern.

我们看到，价格区间越来越窄，尽管像现在这样频繁出现五到七美元的波动，确实很难准确衡量。

As we've seen, it become coiled into a tighter and tighter range, even though it's hard to measure that when you're seeing $5.06 $7 swings this often.

但关键问题是，会是什么因素触发这个三角形态突破呢？

But really, the question is going to be what will be the catalyst for a potential breakout out of this triangle formation?

突破后价格大概会往哪儿走？

Where would it likely go?

有些人猜测，如果突然达成和平协议，原油价格可能会跌到80美元以下，但事实上，全球库存已经大幅下降，未来油价很可能维持在更高水平。

Now, some people speculate that if suddenly there was a peace deal that we could see $80 or less on crude, but there has structurally been a huge inventory depletion and there is a higher level of oil that is likely to be with us.

所以很值得观察的是，会不会有那么一刻，市场突然意识到和平协议比所有人预期的都要遥远，导致油价重新冲破100美元的心理关口——我觉得这会是个关键节点，可能引发一波抢购潮，推动油价进一步上涨。

So it'd be very interesting to see whether there will be this one moment where everyone realizes that a peace deal is much farther than everyone expects, and it causes oil to break back above the 100 handle, which I think is psychologically going to be a breaking point that could create rush back into oil and drive a potential advance.

不过我现在还不指望这种情况马上发生，但你要知道，只要中东地区突然爆发导弹袭击，大家意识到这问题比想象中持久得多，这种触发点随时可能出现。

Now, I'm not looking for that just yet, but listen, we can get that kind of a trigger at any point if we see missiles flying in The Middle East and everyone recognizes that this problem is going to last longer than everyone expects.

好了，埃里克。

All right, Erik.

我们来聊聊黄金吧。

Let's touch on gold here.

上周我就提醒过，金价已经逼近200日均线支撑位4415美元，我当时就说这个位置撑不住，还特别警告说，一旦跌破这个关键均线，价格很可能会加速下行，直逼三个月前的低点4100美元。

Well, I warned last week that we were teetering on the two hundred day moving average support level at 44.15, which I said I did not expect to hold, and I further cautioned that taking out that critical two hundred day moving average would likely result in an acceleration of downside price action toward the prior low at 4,100 from about three months ago.

结果真就发生了。

Well, that's exactly what happened.

现在金价已经跌破4100，截至录音时最低到了4047美元。

We've already taken out 4,100 to the downside with the low print so far as of recording time at forty forty seven, four zero four seven.

4100这个支撑位应该能带来一些短暂的喘息，甚至可能反弹一下，但如果霍尔木兹海峡的问题迟迟得不到解决，我觉得价格还有进一步下跌的空间。

That 41 support line ought to be good for at least a little pause here, maybe a bounce, but if Hormuz remains unresolved, I think there's plenty of room for lower prices still.

说实话，如果霍尔木兹危机一直拖到年底，金价测试3000美元这个整数关口，我一点都不觉得意外。

Frankly, if we were to see the Hormuz crisis extend all the way to the end of the calendar year, I don't think 3,000 is out of the question for the gold market to test that 3,000 round number support by the end of the year.

当然，这得建立在霍尔木兹危机长期持续的前提下，但这种可能性不能排除。

Now that would only happen if we were to see a prolonged extension of the Hormuz crisis, but I don't think that's out of the question.

埃里克，这一个多月来我们一直在说黄金的价格走势非常分散，而过去这一周，卖压明显加速了。

Well, Erik, on this show for over a month, we've been talking about how distributive the price action has been on gold, and so this last one week was a definitive acceleration of that selling.

对我来说很明显，我们经历了一个为期两年的牛市，那是一波异常强劲的上涨，最后以一段漂亮的抛物线式飙升收尾。

What's clear to me is that we went through a two year bull market that was an extraordinary impulse hire that ended with a beautiful parabolic rise at the tail end.

现在我们已经进入调整期六个月了，目前面临的阻力不小。

We're now six months into a correction, and at this stage, there is a lot of headwinds.

利率上升、美元走强，这些通常都是黄金的利空因素，而且短期内这些趋势似乎都不会逆转。

You have higher interest rates, a rising dollar, things that typically are headwinds for gold, and then probably no imminent turn in those trends.

所以在当前阶段，认为黄金会继续维持震荡整理，是最可能的发展路径。

And so at this stage, expecting gold to continue to remain in this consolidation phase is the path of least resistance.

更大的问题是，它还能跌到多低？

The bigger question is how low can it go?

你提到3000这个点位。

Know you're suggesting 3,000.

我觉得现阶段最合理的短期目标，是回看去年十月的低点，大约在3900左右。

I think for now the most logical short term target is looking back at the October lows, which were around 3,900.

如果这个位置也守不住，那2025年初出现过的3400附近的关键整理区域，就会成为下一个支撑位。

And if that doesn't hold, there's key consolidation levels that happened earlier in 2025 around that 3,400 level.

这些都算是短期内可能的下行目标，逻辑上说得通。

Those would be all kind of logical downside targets for short term moves.

从大方向看，黄金迟早会迎来一个绝佳的买入机会，但看起来今年夏天对它来说会相当艰难。

Now, overall, there's going to be an extraordinary buying opportunity in gold, but it really does look like the summer is going to be rather challenging for it.

我们真正要关注的是，到了下半年，那个转折点究竟会在哪里出现。

We'll really be looking for where is that turning point once we get into the second half of the year.

所以，埃里克，你对铀矿有什么看法？

So Erik, what are your thoughts here on uranium?

我们节目的常听者都知道，我长期始终非常看多，但过去几周我一直提醒，这个市场已经显出过热迹象，一旦市场出现系统性风险，铀矿股很容易大幅下跌。

Well, our regular listeners know, I remain and I will always remain super bullish long term, but I've been warning for several weeks now that this market felt toppy and that a broad market risk event could easily drive uranium miners much lower.

这周发生的情况，完全就是我之前担心的那样。

Well, that's exactly what played out this week.

这正是我过去几周在《宏观之声》里反复表达的担忧。

It's the exact scenario that I've been expressing concern about here on Macro Voices for the last few weeks.

上周五标普500大幅下跌，而铀矿股跌幅更大，周二又是如此。

We saw the S and P 500 down hard on Friday and uranium down even harder on a percentage basis and again on Tuesday.

我依然看好铀的基本面，但要是AI泡沫破裂，股市整体进入熊市，铀板块很可能会像2024年到2025年4月那样经历一次大洗牌。

Now, I still love the fundamentals, but hey, a popping of the AI bubble and a broad bear market in in stocks could easily mean a washout for uranium on the scale of the 2024 into April 2025 period.

说实话，那时候2024年底的基本面其实非常好，只是市场根本没在意。

Frankly, the fundamentals were terrific then at the end of 2024, but it just wasn't registering.

这个板块波动特别大，散户参与度一向很高。

This is a very volatile sector with famously high retail participation.

如果看到投资者被强制平仓，从股市撤出，那对铀矿股来说可能就是一场灾难。

If we see people getting margin called out of the stock market, I think it could be a real disaster scenario for the uranium miners.

这丝毫不会改变我的长期基本面判断，作为长期投资者，我依然认为铀是十年一遇的机会，但在这波行情结束前，我预计还会继续下跌，所以我一点不着急加仓我的长期持有头寸，说实话，现在还不是时候。

Doesn't change my fundamental outlook one iota, but as a long term investor, I still believe uranium is opportunity of the decade, but I'm bracing myself for more downside before this is over, and I'm not in any rush to start adding to my long term buy and hold positions in uranium because frankly, don't think it's time yet.

我觉得在走出这场风暴之前，市场可能还会经历更多震荡。

I think that there could be considerable more turbulence before we're out of this storm.

有意思的是，铀作为大宗商品表现得有点疲软，但铀矿股的抛售周期确实明显加速了。

What's interesting to me is that uranium has been a little bit weak as a commodity, but certainly we have seen the distribution cycle in uranium stocks really accelerate here.

而且这波抛售正好和黄金矿股开始下跌的时间点吻合。

And it really does look like it happened the same time as the gold miners started to sell.

所以现阶段，我们正处于某种派发周期之中。

And so we really at this stage are in the midst of some sort of distribution cycle.

回头看2024到2025年那段时期，铀矿股的牛市逻辑也特别强劲。

When we look back at uranium stocks back in 2024 and '25, the bull story was also super strong.

但那时候，URA指数曾经历过两次幅度在35%到40%之间的盘整。

But in that period, the URA managed to have two consolidations in the 35 to 40% variety.

因此，我们现在很可能正处在类似的市场调整阶段。

And so the idea here that we are in the midst of this style of a market correction is very likely.

现在关键就是看它会跌到什么位置、多深为止。

And so now it's just a matter of seeing where and how low it goes.

之后我们会寻找技术面上的底部形态，为下一轮重要买入机会做准备。

And then we'll be looking for the technical bottoming formations for the potential next key buying opportunities.

总体来看，铀的基本面依然非常乐观。

And that's the thing that overall things are very bullish fundamentally for uranium.

所以真正值得关注的是，股价什么时候才会开始表现出新一轮上涨行情的迹象。

So the question becomes when do the stocks start to behave like there's another bull impulse coming on the upside, and that's gonna be the thing to watch.

帕特里克，在结束本周的播客之前，我们来看看十年期国债的走势图。

Patrick, before we wrap up this week's podcast, let's hit that ten year treasury note chart.

过去一个月，价格基本在4.45到4.65之间震荡整理。

We've basically been trading in a consolidation for the last month, pinned between $4.45 to four sixty five.

总体来看，利率和由油价驱动的通胀预期之间有着非常清晰的关联性。

Overall, there's been a very clear and distinct correlation between rates and inflation expectations driven by oil.

所以现在要解开的谜题是：如果油价因为某种原因再次出现上涨行情并突破上方阻力，这种关联还会不会继续生效？

And so the puzzle to solve here is that if oil, for whatever reason, did have another bull impulse on the upside and broke out on there, would we see it impact the rates markets again and that correlation stay true?

这才是我们需要关注的重点。

That is the thing to watch.

从长远来看，这迟早会是个显而易见的买入机会，但眼下，考虑到当前的地缘政治和宏观环境，还太早去预测收益率见顶或债券见底。

Overall, at some stage, are going to be a no brainer buy, but at this moment, with the current geopolitical and macro backdrop, I think it's very premature to be looking for a peak in these yields and lows and bonds just yet.

因此，目前我保持中立，静静观察，尊重当前收益率的上升趋势依然有效。

And so at this stage, I'm staying very neutral and observing and respecting that this prevailing uptrend in yields is still intact.

各位，如果你喜欢帕特里克的图表分析，可以通过免费试用Big Picture Trading，每天都能收到他的最新报告。

Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading.

详细内容在幻灯片的最后几页，或者直接访问 bigpicturetrading.com。

The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com.

帕特里克，跟大家说说这周的研究简报里都有什么内容。

Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup.

这周的研究简报里，你会找到今天访谈的完整文字稿，还有我们刚才在赛后讨论的周度交易图表集，里面附了不少我们觉得有意思的文章链接。

Well, in this week's research roundup, you're gonna find the transcript for today's interview as well as the trade of the week chartbook that we just discussed here in the postgame, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting.

这些链接，还有更多内容，都会放在这周的研究简报里。

You're gonna find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup.

这周的节目就到这里了。

That does it for this week's episode.

非常感谢各位听众的反馈和支持，我们也一直在想怎么把节目做得更好。

We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners, and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better.

如果你是做市场分析或写博客的，想把内容分享给我们的听众，可以发邮件到 researchroundup@macrovoices.com，我们会考虑放进每周的推送里。

And for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com, and we will consider it for our weekly distributions.

如果你还没关注的话，记得在 X 上关注我们的主账号 Macro Voices，获取最新动态和更新。

If you have not already, follow our main account on x at Macro Voices for all the most recent updates and releases.

你也可以在X上关注Eric，账号是Eric S Townsend。

You can also follow Eric on X at Eric S Townsend.

这个名字是E-R-I-C，用的是K字母。

That's Eric spelled with a k.

你还可以关注我，账号是Patrick Ceresna。

You could also follow me at Patrick Ceresna.

代表Erik Townsend和我本人，感谢大家收听，我们下周再见。

On behalf of Erik Townsend and myself, thank you for listening, and we'll see you all next week.

以上就是本期Macro Voices的全部内容。

That concludes this edition of Macro Voices.

每周记得收听，我们会邀请金融和宏观经济学领域最杰出的专家进行深度访谈。

Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics.

Macro Voices由bigpicturetrading.com赞助播出，这是全球交易者首选的在线教育平台。

Macro Voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the Internet's premier source of online education for traders.

更多详情请访问bigpicturetrading.com。

Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information.

请到 macrovoices.com 免费注册一个账户。

Please register your free account at macrovoices.com.

注册后，您每周都会收到我们的免费研究简报邮件，里面包含嘉宾提供的参考资料，以及我们志愿者研究团队每周从网上精选的优质免费财经内容。

Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the Internet each week.

您还将获得访问我们免费听众讨论区和研究资料库的权限。

You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library.

注册用户越多，我们就能邀请到更多知名嘉宾参与未来的节目。

And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high profile feature interview guests for future programs.

如果您还没注册，现在就去 macrovoices.com 免费注册吧。

So please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already.

您可以在 iTunes 上订阅 Macro Voices，每周节目会自动推送到您的移动设备，完全免费。

You can subscribe to Macro Voices on iTunes to have Macro Voices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge.

如果您有疑问，可以发邮件到 mailbagmacrovoices.com，我们会在‘听众来信’环节不定期挑选回答。

You can email questions for the program to mailbagmacrovoices dot com, and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our Mailbag segment.

Macro Voices 的内容仅供信息参考和娱乐使用。

Macro Voices is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Macro Voices 上提供的信息不应被视为投资建议。

The information presented on Macro Voices should not be construed as investment advice.

在做出投资决策前，请务必咨询持牌投资专业人士。

Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions.

Macro Voices 上表达的观点和意见属于嘉宾个人，不一定代表节目主持人或赞助方的立场。

The views and opinions expressed on Macro Voices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors.

Macro Voices 及其制作方、赞助方和主持人 Erik Townsend 与 Patrick Ceresna，不对听众依据本节目内容做出投资决策而导致的损失承担责任。

Macro Voices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Macro Voices.

Macro Voices 的制作得益于 bigpicturetrading.com 的赞助以及 Fourth Turning Capital Management LLC 的资金支持。

Macro Voices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com and by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management LLC.

如需更多信息，请访问 macrovoices.com。

For more information, visit macrovoices.com.