Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 10/15/26

在今天的电话会议上，他说客户每个月会转移近4万亿美元的现金。

On today's call, he said clients move nearly $4,000,000,000,000 in cash each month.

我们还有另一个观察要补充。

We're short for another observation.

通过互换连接使用AI的交易员比其他活跃交易员持有更多现金，因为他们正在为下一笔投资做准备。

Traders using AI through swaps connections hold more cash than other active traders because they're preparing for the next investment.

这并不能证明AI总是有利于现金余额，但它削弱了那种认为使用AI会自动减少嘉信理财现金的假设。

That doesn't prove AI will always benefit cash balances, but it undermines the assumption that AI use automatically drains Schwab's cash.

而且你看，本季度总客户资产增长了15%，这是有原因的。

And look, there's a reason total client assets increased by 15% this quarter.

新开了120万个经纪账户。

1,200,000 new brokerage accounts were open.

嘉信理财财富咨询的净流入增长了55%。

Schwab Wealth Advisory net flows increased 55%.

客户正在把更多的钱投入到人工咨询上。

Customers are committing more money to human advice.

与此同时，投资者也在质疑AI是否会取代它。

At the same time, investors are questioning whether AI will replace it.

在我看来，这不太可能。

Doesn't look like it to me.

嘉信的其他业务也在贡献增长，资产管理和行政费用上涨了14%，超出了预期。

Swabs other businesses are contributing to asset management and administration fees rose 14% ahead of expectations.

交易收入增长了16%。

Trading revenue increased 16%.

日均交易量比去年跃升了44%，达到1070万笔，尽管比第二季度略有回落。

Daily average trades jumped 44% from last year to 10,700,000, even after cooling down a bit from the second quarter.

沃斯特表示，AI将开发者生产力提高了约25%，帮助公司在控制成本的同时进行再投资。

Worcester said AI has improved developer productivity by about 25%, helping the company reinvest while controlling its costs.

嘉信本季度还回购了5亿美元的自有股票。

Schwab also repurchased $500,000,000 of its own stock in the quarter.

今年到目前为止，截至9月，他们回购了近40亿美元的股票。

So far this year, they bought back nearly $4,000,000,000 worth of stock through September.

这确实很厉害。

That's impressive.

在证券投资组合中仍然有机会。

There's still an opportunity in the security portfolio.

首席财务官弗雷德·达什表示，SWAP大约有1900亿美元的证券收益率不到2%。

CFO, Fred Dashi, says SWAP is roughly a $190,000,000,000 securities yielding less than 2%.

随着这些投资到期，你完全可以相信SWAP会获得更高的收益率。

As those investments roll off, you better believe SWAP will get much higher yields.

另外，还有估值方面的因素。

Plus, there's the valuation.

股价为94美元时，嘉信理财的市盈率不到今年预期收益的15倍，也略低于明年预期的12倍。

At $94, Schwab trades at less than 15 times this year's earnings estimates and just under 12 times next year's numbers.

考虑到这些数字所体现的增长率，这确实相当便宜，其增长率超过了大多数主要银行股。

That's pretty darn cheap given the numbers are putting up in that growth rate, which runs raise around most of the major bank stocks.

总结一下。

Here's the bottom line.

每次华尔街不看好嘉信理财，结果都证明是个绝佳的买入机会。

Every time Wall Street counts Charles Schwab out, it's proven to be a great buying opportunity.

我觉得春天因为AI替代的担忧而卖出这只股票是错的，现在因为MetaMuse的担忧而卖出也是错的。

I think it was wrong to sell the stock on AI displacement fears in the spring, and it's wrong to sell it on MetaMuse worries today.

这家公司可是在创纪录地吸引新资产啊。

This is a franchise that's bringing in record new assets for heaven's sake.

我唯一的遗憾是，嘉信理财的股价已经从低点开始反弹了。

My only regret is that Schwab stock has already started rebounding off its lows.

嘿。

Hey.

也许它还会再跌一次，给你一个更好的入场点。

Maybe it'll get hit again and give you a better entry point.

我觉得这只股票会和我之前让你们买的那两只一样出色，而且这次是我一个人推荐的。

I think this one will be every bit as grand as the last two I told you to get a piece of, and I'm recommending it all by myself.

这和Muse一点关系都没有。

Muse had nothing to do with it.

《疯狂金钱》节目休息时间又回来了。

Mad Money's back here for the break.

接下来，消费者现在可能手头紧，但克莱默发现了两只可能上涨的服装股。

Coming up, the consumer may be strapped right now, but Cramer's found two apparel stocks that could be set to run.

接下来。

Next.

CNBC变革者，聚焦那些勇于创新、大胆领导并正在改变商业格局的女性。

CNBC changemakers, spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly, and are transforming business.

你认识正在改写未来的人吗？

Do you know someone who is rewriting the future?

2027年榜单的提名现已开放，请访问changemakersnominations.cnbc.com。

Nominations for the twenty twenty seven list are open now at changemakersnominations.cnbc.com.

我一直在寻找新点子，这周一下子来了两个，几乎是从天而降。

I'm always searching for new ideas, and this week got not one, but two of them practically came out of nowhere.

多亏了一些非常严格的分析师上调评级。

Thanks to some very rigorous analyst upgrades.

VF公司和Contour Brands，这两家服装公司我之前一直拿不定主意，这周它们都获得了重大的评级上调。

The f corp and contour brands, a pair of apparel companies that I've been on the fence about, they both caught major upgrades this week.

我觉得这两家看起来很有意思。

These look very interesting to me.

在利率和油价都在上涨的时候，我真的觉得，嘿。

At a time of rising interest rates and rising oil prices, I really think, hey.

咱们来点服装行业的投资吧。

Let's get some apparel exposure.

但这两家可能值得关注。

But these two just might be worth it.

让我一个一个给你分析，告诉你为什么我这么感兴趣。

Let me walk you through them one by one to show you why I'm so intrigued.

先从VF公司说起，你可能知道它是The North Face的母公司，还有Timberland，以及一堆小品牌，主要是户外服装和鞋类。

Start with VF Corp, which you may know is the North Face fans, Timberland among a bunch of smaller brands, lots of outerwear and footwear.

周二早上，VF公司不是一次，而是两次获得评级上调。

On Tuesday morning, VF Corp not not one, but two upgrades.

这本身就是一个很好的信号。

That in itself is pretty great tell.

首先，把股票从持有上调到买入，目标价从14美元提高到20美元。

First, took the stock from hold to buy, raising his price target from 14 to $20.

上调的时候，股价还不到16美元。

At the time of the upgrade, the stock was just under $16.

然后Piper Sandler把股票从中性上调到增持，基本上又是从持有到买入，目标价从16美元提高到20美元。

Then Piper Sandler took the stock from mutual to overweight, basically hold to buy again, and raised the price target from 16 to $20.

真正打动我的是Piper的这次上调，因为这是基于他们年度青少年调查的结果。

It's the piper upgrade that really moved me because this was in response to their annual teen survey.

这是一份我一直密切关注的很棒的研究。

A fantastic piece of research that I always follow closely.

如果青少年调查说买VF Corp，那我得告诉你，买买买。

If the teen survey says buy the f corp, then I gotta tell you, buy buy buy.

不过，先让我解释一下这里的情况。

First though, let me explain the setup here.

F公司在上一个十年，从2009年到2019年，表现非常出色。

The f corp had a spectacular run last decade from 2009 to 2019.

股价从十几美元一路飙升，在2020年第一个交易日的盘中高点达到了100美元。

The stock soared from the high teens all the way to 100 at its intraday high on the first day...

2020年的第一个交易日。

Trading day of 2020.

然后疫情来了，股价，嗯，可以说是被彻底打垮了，直到2020年底和2021年初才强劲反弹。

Then COVID hit and the stock, well, it just got obliterated before it came roaring back in late twenty twenty and early twenty twenty one.

但在接下来的三年里，VF公司的表现非常糟糕。

But for the next three years, VF Corp was just a miserable performance.

和许多其他电力公司一样。

Like many other power companies.

当世界恢复正常、消费者口味改变时，他们措手不及。

They got caught with their pants down when the world went back to normal and consumer taste change.

2023年年中，当股价又跌回十几美元时，董事会终于请来了新的CEO。

In mid twenty twenty three, when the stock was back down to the teens, the board finally brought in a new CEO.

Bracken Darrell，他是我们节目的粉丝，在罗技国际长期任职期间创造了巨大的价值，这也是他经常上我们节目的原因。

Bracken Darrell, fan of the show here, who created a tremendous amount of value in a long tenure at Logitech International, which is what he always came on for.

然而，即使是一位出色的CEO，也无法一夜之间扭转一个受损的业务。

However, even a great CEO can't turn around a damaged business overnight.

最初几年，他只是在努力止血，通过出售表现不佳的品牌来清理资产负债表。

First first couple years, he was just trying to stem the bleeding, clean up the balance sheet by selling off underperforming brands.

就在VF Corp看起来站稳脚跟的时候，去年春天他们又遭到了总统关税的沉重打击。

Just when it looked like VF Corp had found its footing, they got brutalized by the president's tariffs in the spring of last year.

但真正的问题一直是Vans。

But the real problem here has always been Vans.

这个滑板鞋品牌在2010年代推动了股价的惊人上涨。

This skateboarding sneaker brand fueled the stock's incredible gains in the 2010...

在2010年代，但Vans多年前就达到了顶峰，从那以后一直在失去市场份额。

In the twenty tens, but vans peaked years ago, and it's been losing market share ever since.

2023年，其固定汇率销售额下降了8%。

In 2023, its constant currency sales growth was down 8%.

好的。

Alright.

2024年，下降了25%。

2024, down 25%.

2025年，下降了15%。

In 2025, it was down 15%.

在财年……

In the fiscal...

2026财年，三月份下降了11%。

2026 fiscal year, and in March, it was down 11%.

到这个时候，Vans的销售额相比2022财年的峰值几乎腰斩。

By this point, fan sales have been nearly cut in half from the peak in fiscal twenty twenty two.

与此同时，The North Face在过去几年一直稳步增长。

Meanwhile, the North Face has been growing consistently for the past several years.

Timberland这几年也表现不错。

Timberland's been putting up good numbers for a couple years now too.

但范斯的疲软表现就像他们脖子上挂着一只信天翁，拖累着他们。

But the weakness in fans is an albatross around their neck.

VF公司上次在7月发布财报时，范斯按固定汇率计算仍下跌了9%。

The last time VF Corp reported in July, Vance was still down 9% on a constant currency basis.

我提这些是因为周二Truist和Piper Sandler上调了VF公司的评级，而他们都提到了范斯的改善。

I bring all this up because when Truist and Piper Sandler upgraded the f corp the f corp on Tuesday, they both cited improvement from Vance.

记住，Piper的评级上调是基于那份重要的青少年调查。

And remember, Piper's upgrade came from that all important teen survey.

青少年都在穿范斯。

Teens are wearing Vans.

他们为什么对这个长期低迷的运动鞋品牌这么有信心？

Why are they so confident about this long suffering sneaker brand?

Piper的青少年调查显示，非运动品牌越来越受欢迎。

Piper's teen survey showed that nonathletic brands are growing in popularity.

运动休闲风潮已经结束了。

The age of athleisure, it's over.

具体到Vans，在经历了多年的下滑之后，它稳定在了最新调查中男性青少年第七大鞋类品牌的位置，并且在高收入男性青少年中从第十位上升到了第九位。

For Vans specifically, after years of sinking the race, it stabilized the number seven footwear brand for male teens in the latest survey, and it moved up from number 10 to number nine among, upper income male teens.

与此同时，Vans的重要零售合作伙伴PacSun在高收入青少年中排名第四，而去年秋天是第八，2025年春天是第十三。

Meanwhile, PacSun, a key retail partner for Vans, came in as the number four brand among upper income teens and from number eight last fall and 13 in spring of twenty twenty five.

滑板鞋可能要卷土重来了？

I mean, the skaters maybe making a comeback?

当然，VF集团不仅仅只有Vans。

Of course, VF Corpse is more than just Vans.

Chamberlain首次进入高收入青少年运动鞋品牌前十，这是该调查历史上的第一次。

Chamberlain broke into the top 10 athletic footwear brands for all upper income teens for the first time in the survey's history.

这一点很重要。

Important.

最后，The North Face自2024年春天以来首次进入高收入青少年运动服装品牌前十。

Finally, the North Face made the top 10 athletic clothing brands for upper income teens for the first time since the spring of twenty twenty four.

它在那个类别中排名第九。

It came in at number nine in the category.

除了青少年调查之外，Piper还指出了两点。

Beyond the teen survey, Piper called out two things.

第一，VF集团的三大顶级品牌在九月份的网站和门店客流量都很强劲。

First, all three of VF Corp's top brands saw strong web and foot traffic in September.

第二，他们看到Vans的批发业务在最近几周有所改善，这得益于一系列强劲的新产品。

Second, they see Vans wholesale business improving in recent weeks, thanks to a strong set of new products.

在VF集团七月份的报告里，Vans的批发业务表现非常糟糕。

Wholesale was horrific for Vans when VF Corp reported July.

综合来看，Piper的分析师们，由Anna Andreba领导，认为现在是买入VF集团的时候了，他们说，用他们的话说，股价已经“脱离了低点”，但仍然“被低估”，而且被高估的……

Put it all together in the Piper and analysts led by, Anna Andreba think that it's time to buy VF Corp, which they say is, quote, off the lows, but it's still under owned, end quote, by elevated boat...

被高估的短缺，对人们来说是个问题。

Elevated shortages to boot people.

我们之前看空这只股票。

We bet against this thing.

那听起来真是个错误。

That sounds like a real mistake.

好的。

Alright.

再看看这家旅游公司的更新情况？

How about this tourist update?

他们提出了类似的观点，只是没有青少年调查的硬数据支持。

They make a similar argument just without the hard data from the teen survey.

这两家公司都提到了估值问题，这很合理，因为VF Corp今年的市盈率只有16倍，远低于标普500指数的平均水平。

Both firms called out the valuation, which makes sense since VF Corp trades at just 16 times this year's earnings estimates well below the S and P 500 in the aggregate.

总之，Advance的情况终于好转了，这只股票绝对值得入手。

In the end, advance is finally improving, then this one's definitely a winner.

Rack和Dowell也认为，它确实是一只赢家股。

Rack and Dowell, we think in himself is indeed a winner.

好的。

Alright.

接下来我们聊聊Contour Brands，这是VF Corp在2019年分拆出来的牛仔业务。

Now let's talk Contour Brands, the denim business that was actually spun off by VF Corp in 2019.

他们拥有Wrangler和Lee Jeans，虽然他们打算在不久的将来以高达十亿美元的价格出售Lee品牌。

They own Wrangler and Lee Jeans, although they're they're selling the Lee's brand for up to a billion dollars not too distant future.

去年，Contour收购了Helly Hansen，那个户外工装品牌，我管它叫Helly h。

Last year, Contour bought Helly Hansen, the outdoor workwear brand that I call Helly h.

乔，我特别喜欢那个品牌。

I was a big fan of that, Joe.

我爱他们的雨衣，那种厚实的防水外套。

I love the raincoats, real thick slickers.

再说一次，这只股票在2025年初达到顶峰之前一直表现很好。

Once again, this used to be a great stock before it peaked in early twenty twenty five.

从那以后，股价一直难以站稳脚跟，在五十多和八十多之间来回波动，五十多和八十多。

Ever since the stock has struggled to find its footing, bouncing back and forth between the fifties and the eighties, the fifties and the eighties.

Jefferies上调了Contour的评级，这是对牛仔布品类整体看涨观点的一部分，这个品类最近突然加速增长。

Jefferies upgraded Contour is part of a broader bullish call in the denim category, which has suddenly accelerated.

不过，Levi's是更好的交易选择。

I mean, Levi's a better trade than that though.

杰富瑞的分析师认为这是一种有潜力的新时尚趋势。

The analysts at Jefferies think this is a new fashion trend that has legs.

就像我们看到Vans复苏一样，运动休闲风已经过时了，休闲化和怀旧风正在流行。

Similar to what we see with the recovery in Vans, athleisure's out, casualization, nostalgia are in.

他们认为李维斯和Contour会是最大的赢家，这也是为什么他们把Contour的评级从持有上调到买入，目标价从82美元提高到89美元。

They see Levi Strauss and contours the big winners, which is why they upgraded Contour from hold to buy, raising their price target from 82 to 89.

对于一只交易在七十多美元的股票来说，这已经很不错了。

Pretty good for a stock that's trading in the low seventies.

杰富瑞看好Wrangler的业务，而且他们很喜欢Contour计划进行4亿美元的加速回购。

Jefferies likes the Wrangler business here, and they love that Contour plans to do a $400,000,000 accelerated buyback.

这相当于市值的10%左右。

That's equal to about 10% of the market cap.

考虑到股价还不到盈利的14倍，这是一笔明智的投资。

With the stock at just under 14 times earnings, that's a smart investment.

我觉得Helly Hansen是一个很棒的增长品牌，完全还没被开发，一旦他们完成那笔Lead Gen的出售，它就会成为更大的业务板块。

I throw in that Helly Hansen is a fantastic growth brand, totally unexploited, that will become a larger piece of the pie the moment they close in that lead gen sale.

通常，在这个商业周期阶段，我不太愿意推荐服装股。

Normally, hesitate to recommend apparel stocks at this point in the business cycle.

但VF集团和Contour，它们从高点大幅回落，目前估值低迷。

But VF Corp and Contour, they've come down dramatically from their highs, and they're trading at depressed valuations.

我觉得市场环境已经反映了这些因素。

I think the environment's baked in.

它们的特殊情况是对典型的服装周期具有免疫力。

Their special situation was immunity to the typical apparel cycle.

它们就是今天上涨的那种股票。

They're the kind of stuff that went up today.

所以，这就是底线。

So here's the bottom line.

这些升级改变了我对VF集团和Contour的看法。

These upgrades have changed my mind about VF Corp and Contour.

在这个价位，我认为它们都值得买入。

Down here, I think they're both buys.

好的。

Alright.

我们来接听一些电话。

Let's take some calls.

先从加利福尼亚的卢开始。

Let's start with Lou in California.

卢。

Lou.

你好，吉姆。

Hello, Jim.

谢谢你接听我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

我关注你很多年了，从1996年你在华尔街的深刻评论开始。

I followed you for years going back to your insightful commentary in 1996 of the street.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我订阅了很久了。

I was a longtime subscriber.

谢谢。

Thank you.

不过我的问题是，不客气。

My question though is, you're welcome.

不过我的问题更多是关于人，而不是利润。

My question, though, is more about people than profits.

昨天，Netflix宣布裁员近一千人，约占其员工总数的6%，这是一个很大的数字，而此前在2022年他们已经裁掉了大约450人。

Yesterday, Netflix announced layoffs of nearly a thousand employees, roughly 6% of its workforce, which is a big number, after already laying off some 450 people in 2022.

吉姆，尤其是在这些困难时期，你如何为这些裁员对忠诚员工及其家庭造成的毁灭性影响辩护？

Jim, and especially in these difficult times, how do you justify the devastating impact these layoffs have on loyal employees and their families?

那到底要到什么程度，让股东价值最大化才会比那些最初帮助创造价值的人的生活更重要呢？

And at what point does maximizing shareholder value become more important than the lives of the very people who helped create that value in the first place?

嗯，我跟你说，卢，我创办过很多企业，也不幸裁过很多人，同时也雇过很多人，有时候你不得不这么做。

Well, I tell you, Lou, having started a lot of business and unfortunately having laid off a lot of people and also hire a lot of people, sometimes you have to do it.

我觉得Netflix，他们……

I think that Netflix, they're...

他们有不同的技术。

They've got different technology.

他们是一家非常聪明的公司。

They're a very smart company.

如果他们觉得这些人可以被替代，我想他们会这么做，因为他们的股价在下跌，而且他们……

If they feel these people can be replaced, I think they're gonna do it because their stocks down and they...

因为他们……

Because they...

人们觉得他们最近表现不太好。

People feel they haven't been doing that well.

我明白你的意思。

I hear you.

我因为必须保住机构而不得不裁员的情况，次数多得数不清，因为机构必须得维持下去。

I mean, I the number of times I've had to fire people, because I had to save the institution, because the institution had to be preserved is great.

你可能会说，奈飞，别闹了。

You may say, well, Netflix, come on.

他们赚了很多钱。

They're making a lot of money.

但他们和其他很多公司一样，也面临压力，他们只是在做他们认为对的事情。

But they're under pressure, like a lot of other companies, and they're doing what they think is right.

我希望他们给了员工很好的遣散费。

I hope they gave the people great severance packages.

那可能是唯一的亮点。

That could be the saving grace.

但我明白你的意思。

But I I hear you.

你心地真好。

You got a big heart.

我们连线一下佛罗里达的萨尔。

Let's go to Sal in Florida, please.

萨尔。

Sal.

吉姆，我想让你知道，你的节目是当今电视上最有见识、最好的节目。

Jim, I want you to know you have the most knowledgeable and best show on television today.

我拥有电视上最好的团队，是他们让我看起来很有见识。

I have the best staff on television today, and they make me look knowledgeable.

不过还是谢谢你。

But I thank you.

我会把你说的话告诉团队里的每个人，真的很感谢。

I'm gonna tell everyone on the staff that you said that, and I really appreciate it.

萨尔，有什么可以帮你的？

How can I help you, Sal?

吉姆，10月28号，Jersey Mike's要发财报了。

Jim, on October 28, Jersey Mike has their earnings.

我是你在电视上采访他们CEO的时候买的。

I purchased it when you had the CEO on TV.

当时股价大概24美元。

The stock was around $24.

现在跌了不少。

It's come down a lot.

我现在应该加仓，还是再等等？

Should I add more to my position now, or should I wait?

我相信查理·莫里森。

I believe in Charlie Morrison.

最近行情确实不好，但餐饮股突然火起来了。

This has been a bad tape, but suddenly the restaurants have caught fire.

像Texas Roadhouse、Cheesecake Factory这些。

Texas Roadhouse, Cheesecake.

好吃。

Yum.

我这是在冒险表态。

I'm I'm sticking my neck out.

天哪。

Oh my god.

但是，是的，我觉得你应该在他们公布业绩之前买一些。

But, yes, I think you should buy some before they before they report.

我觉得这是一家非常非常好的公司。

I think it's a very, very good company.

接下来我们连线德州的沃尔特。

I'm gonna go to Walter in Texas, please.

沃尔特。

Walter.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

太棒了。

Booyah.

太棒了，沃尔特。

Booyah, Walter.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

吉姆，林赛一家人都在这儿呢。

You got the whole Lindsay family here, Jim.

我们是第一次来，但关注你们很久了。

We're first time long time.

我们是你们的忠实粉丝。

We're big fans.

好的，伙计。

Alright, bud.

咱们开始吧。

Let's hit it.

好的，伙计。

Alright, buddy.

本着高端、高品质多元化的精神……

In the spirit of high class...

我们有一位零售商，已经持有一段时间了。

You know, high quality diversification, we have a retailer who's been holding for a while.

我只需要知道我们是继续持有，还是换成别的。

I just need to know if we need to keep holding it or transition something different.

现在就是家得宝。

Now be Home Depot.

好的。

Alright.

我希望你继续持有。

I want you to keep holding it.

我知道这在我的旅行信托里一直让我很头疼。

I know that it's been a source of pain for me at my travel trust.

我之前卖了个更高的价格。

I was able to sell something much higher.

最近它一直没什么动静，但今天表现不错。

It's been doing nothing of late but it did have a good day today.

收益率有3%。

Yields 3%.

如果利率下降的话。

We get rates down.

你今天也看到了，利率下降会带来什么。

You saw what happens if rates come down today.

你也看到了可能发生的情况。

You saw what can go on.

这只股票涨了百分之四点五。

This stop went up four and a half percent.

我觉得家得宝未来会有更好的表现。

I think much better things are ahead for Home Depot.

好的。

All right.

VF集团和Contour通常都从高点回落了。

Both VF Corp and Contour have come down usually from their highs.

我觉得这两个都是买入、买入、买入。

I think they're both Buy buy buy.

还有更多《疯狂金钱》的内容。

There's much more Mad Money.

而且我认为，一位曾经的消费品巨头即将获得分析师的升级评级。

And I think some analyst upgrades are on the way for one former CPG darling.

我会解释为什么我认为你应该在评级之前就买入这只股票。

I'll explain why I think you should get in on the stock ahead of them.

今天投资俱乐部会议时，我们没能回答所有你想问的问题，所以我现在再回答一些俱乐部成员的市场提问。

Then we didn't get all the questions we wished you when we were doing that investing club meeting today, so I'm taking some more market queries from club members.

顺便说一句，去我名字下的字母X，你会看到全部内容。

Hey, by the way, go to letter x under my name, you'll see the whole thing.

而且你可以打电话或者注册参加。

And all your call or you can sign up for it.

今晚的闪电回合，所有来电都是快问快答。

All your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round.

所以请继续关注克拉默。

So stay with Cramer.

让我告诉你华尔街分析师是怎么运作的。

Let me tell you the way Wall Street analysts work.

华尔街雇佣分析师是为了获得股票业务和投资银行业务。

Wall Street hires analysts in order to get stock business and investment banking business.

分析师覆盖多家公司，经常对他们认为最好的公司做出有力的判断。

Analysts cover groups of companies making often powerful calls on what they think are the best ones.

和许多同行不同，我其实觉得分析师们干得相当不错。

Unlike many of my contemporaries, I actually think the analysts do a pretty good job.

他们让你及时了解公司情况，尤其是在公司发布财报的时候。

They keep you up on company, especially when they report earnings.

如果说有什么弱点，那就是他们觉得必须保持自己的存在感。

If there's a weakness, it's that they feel compelled to stay relevant.

在投资机构里，保持存在感是什么意思呢？

What does it mean to stay relevant in an investment house?

你需要有新东西。

You need newness.

你需要有人能带动销售人员，让他们去给客户打电话，不管是老客户还是那些对这家公司态度不冷不热的人。

You need somebody that can grab salespeople and get them to make calls to customers, both the regulars and the people who've been lukewarm to the firm.

他们的电话也能帮你开新账户。

Their calls can help you open accounts too.

这得有值得聊的新鲜事。

It's something newsworthy to talk about.

所以，如果你是个想往上爬的分析师，你就去找一只没什么大人物关注的股票，然后大力推荐它。

So if you're an analyst who wants to boost your career, you find a stock that no one of any import is sponsoring and you pound the table on it.

把它变成你的招牌。

You make it yours.

我提这个，是因为我觉得金佰利公司的股票马上就要发生这种情况了。

Bring this up because I think that's about to happen with the stock of Kimberly Clark.

多年来，金佰利——不是宝洁，也不是高露洁——一直是我们所说的消费品包装类公司中的明星。

For years and years, Kimberly Clark, that Procter Gamma, not Colgate, was the star of what we call the consumer packaged goods cohort.

它曾是创新者，推出了舒洁面巾纸这样的杀手级产品，还不断上调股息。

It was an innovator, catering killer, ever to Kleenex, and a serial dividend booster.

但随着时间的推移，这家公司迷失了方向，竞争力大不如前，资产负债表也不太好，国际战略又笨重，而与此同时，整个行业在海外市场都表现得很出色。

But over time, this company lost its way and became a much less competitive force with an not so beautiful balance sheet and an unwieldy international strategy at a time when the rest of the industry was killing it overseas.

七年前，金佰利任命迈克·舒为CEO，给了他一个任务：清理问题，推动增长。

Then seven years ago, Kimberly Clark appointed Mike Shu CEO, giving him a mandate to clean things up and get some growth going.

这花了好长时间，因为要修的东西太多了。

Took a long time because there was a lot to fix.

但即便如此，公司的增长也没达到华尔街的期望。

But even then, the company didn't have the growth that Wall Street was hoping for.

然后在2025年，舒决定收购Kenview，也就是强生旗下的旧消费者健康业务。

Then in 2025, Shue decided to buy Kenview, which is j and j's old consumer health business.

他拿到了一个很好的价格，因为卫生与公众服务部部长罗伯特·肯尼迪 Jr. 一直声称泰诺，肯维最大的品牌之一，可能与自闭症有关。

He got a great price because health and human services secretary Robert f Kennedy junior kept claiming that Tylenol, one of Kenview's biggest brands may be linked to autism.

据我所知，这完全没有证据，但肯尼迪就是不肯罢休。

As far as I know, there's zero evidence for this, but Kennedy just wouldn't stop.

股价因此受到重创，就在这时金佰利出手了，拿到了一个很好的价格，尤其是他们主要是用自己的股票来收购肯维。

Stock got hammered, and that's when Kimberly Clark stepped in, getting a great price, especially since they're primarily paying for Kenview with their own stock.

两家公司差不多一年前就同意合并了，但一直受到全球监管机构的阻挠。

The two companies agreed to the merger almost a year ago, but it's been held by regulators across the globe.

他们一个接一个地通过了审批，中国昨天刚刚批准。

One by one, they've been satisfied with China just giving approval yesterday.

巴西今晚也无条件批准了。

Brazil gave it unconditional approval this evening.

这是最后一个大的障碍了。

That's the last big one left.

我觉得这笔交易现在实际上已经接近……

I think this deal is actually now within...

我觉得大概几周内就能完成交易了。

I I got line of sight for me a couple weeks of closing.

肯维的股票会在两到三周内消失。

Cambria stock will disappear in two weeks or three weeks.

嗯，我觉得那时候就会发生。

Well, I think that's when it's gonna happen.

然后你就可以在金佰利旗下拥有这些知名品牌了。

And then you can own these well known brands under the Kimberly umbrella.

我们为什么喜欢这笔交易？

Why do we like this deal?

因为强生其实不太在乎它那些增长较慢的消费品。

Because J and J didn't really care for its slower growing consumer products on.

当你有那么多快速增长的处方药时，谁还会在乎泰诺呢？

Who cares about Tylenol when you have so many fast growing prescription drugs?

你知道我喜欢强生。

You know I like J and J.

这就是强生分拆出坎布里亚的原因。

And that is why J and J spun off CamBu.

但这家新独立的公司并没有真正的俱乐部评分或电商策略，这导致它几乎立刻遭到多家激进股东的攻击，他们成功推动了出售。

But the newly independent company didn't really have a club score or ecommerce strategy, which caused almost immediately be attacked by multiple activist shareholders who campaigned successfully for sale.

对金佰利来说，这是完美的契合。

For Kimberly Clark is a perfect fit.

这就是为什么舒尔斯迅速介入。

That's why shoes swooped in.

现在这笔交易即将完成。

Now the deal's on the verge of closing.

我认为分析师们会争相推荐这家令人兴奋的新公司，它拥有大家熟知的优秀品牌，可能就在你的药箱里。

I think the analyst will fall all over themselves to recommend this newly exciting company with great brands that everybody knows probably in your medicine chest.

在分析师群体中，这里有很大的发展空间。

There's a lot of runway among the analyst community here.

有七位分析师给出持有评级，一位给出卖出评级，而大型公司中只有三位建议买入。

There are seven analysts with a hold, one with a sell, and only three among the large firms they recommend buying.

这对分析师来说简直是完美的配对。

That is perfect analyst Tinder.

而且，公司今天重申了业绩指引，进一步巩固了这一点。

Plus, company reaffirmed its guidance today, cementing it.

虽然之前有过失望，但以后不会再有了。

There were still, but there won't be any more disappointments like we've had.

过去三个季度表现平平，甚至不算太好。

The last three quarters have just been okay to not that great.

这就是为什么股价跌到了九十多美元。

And that's why, the stock fell to the mid nineties.

今天收盘价是104美元。

Close today at a 104.

一年前它交易在123美元，所以我觉得你并没有错过太多。

It traded a 123 a year ago, so I don't think you've missed much.

目前收益率大约在5%。

Still yields about five.

这就是为什么我们在今天的月度电话会议上，强烈推荐投资俱乐部成员关注……

That's why we pushed investing club members hard on the...

关注金佰利公司。

On Kimberly Clark at our monthly call today.

我已经准备好听到金佰利带来的那种令人安心的持有感了。

I'm all set to hear the moopheless sound of holding by Kimberly.

我敢打赌销售人员也会喜欢它。

I'm betting the sales people will love it too.

他们终于有了一个新名字来替代宝洁，宝洁刚刚经历了一波大涨。

They'll finally have a new name to replace Procter and Gamble, which just had a monster run.

到了这个时候，他们想要一些新鲜的东西。

At this point, they want something fresh.

而且它也更便宜。

It's also cheaper.

金佰利正在等待一个支持者。

Kimberly's waiting for a champion.

我觉得两周之内就能找到。

I think it will find one within the fortnight.

这就是底线。

Here's the bottom line.

华尔街就是这么运作的。

This is just how the street works.

现在去试试从中赚点钱吧。

Now go try to make some money from it.

不过不是作为交易，而是作为投资，因为我相信金佰利的升级即将到来，你想赶在它们之前入场。

Not as a trade, though, as an investment because I'm confident these Kimberly Clark upgrades are coming, and you wanna get in ahead of them.

《疯狂金钱》广告之后回来。

Mad Money's back after the break.

接下来，他是华尔街反应最快的人，所以我们要让他来

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the

然后闪电回合就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

闪电回合开始，连线德州的Rich。

Ski decked on the lightning round with Rich in Texas.

Rich。

Rich.

嘿，Jim。

Hey, Jim.

市场因为这家公司失去了来自谷歌的无利可图的流量而惩罚它，但我认为它应该因其对原生用户群的盈利变现而获得回报。

The market punished this company for losing unprofitable traffic from Google, but I think it should be rewarded for its profitable monetization of its native user base.

现在是卖出还是加倍押注Reddit的时候了。

The time to sell or double down on Reddit.

我想买入Reddit。

I wanna buy Reddit.

我觉得

I think

这只股票不贵。

the stock is inexpensive.

这只股票的

The stock's

今年跌得很厉害，我觉得现在价格很合适。

down really badly this year, and I think it's at a great price.

我们连线爱达荷州的玛丽。

Let's go to Mary in Idaho.

玛丽。

Mary.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

这个星期四你好吗？

How are you this Thursday?

我挺好的。

I am doing well.

你呢？

How about you?

还不错。

Not too bad.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

好的。

Good.

我想问你的这个股票，我持有大概四五年了，看着它涨一点，跌一点，又涨一点。

The stuff I wanna ask you about is one I've held for, oh, four or five years and have watched to go up and a little down and a little more up.

好的。

Okay.

我在想，现在市场波动大，不稳定，我是不是应该继续持有，还是放到别的地方更好。

I'm wondering with the market volatility and instability right now, if I should continue to hold on Twitter, I might be better somewhere else.

是埃克森美孚。

It is Exxon.

埃克森美孚。

Exxon.

好的。

Okay.

我觉得埃克森美孚不错。

I think Exxon's good.

我觉得雪佛龙更好。

I think Chevron's better.

我会做这个转换，除非你有税务方面的问题。

I would make that swap unless you have some tax implications.

雪佛龙是更好的选择。

CBX is the better way to go.

我们连线田纳西州的罗伯特。

Let's go to Robert in Tennessee.

罗伯特。

Robert.

吉姆，谢谢你接我的电话。

Jim, appreciate you taking my call.

我的问题是关于火箭的。昨天宣布中子号推迟到2027年，加上最近两周的抛售，电子号火箭的成功、收购以及23亿美元的发射积压订单，现在还值得买入吗？

My question is about rocket After yesterday's announced neutron delayed in 2027 and the most recent sell off the last two weeks, does the success of the electron rocket, acquisition and $2,300,000,000 launch backlog still justify purchasing right now.

嗯，我觉得那次发射……

Well, I thought that that launch would...

发射失败本来应该对它的打击更大，我觉得你现在有一个很好的机会去……

The the failure to launch would have hurt it more, and I think you're getting a great opportunity to.

停。

Stop.

停。

Stop.

停。

Stop.

好的。

Alright.

我们接听纽约的鲍勃。

Let's go to Bob in New York.

鲍勃。

Bob.

吉姆，现在我们正进入利率上升的时期，昨晚你说如果伊朗战争结束，油价可能会跌到每桶50美元。

Jim, now that we're entering a rising rate situation, and last night you said if the war in Iran ends, oil would drop down possibly to $50 barrel.

我的问题是，为什么我要留着这只股票，而不是现在就卖掉？

My question is, why do I wanna keep this stock rather than selling it right now?

我说的是企业产品公司。

And that's enterprise products.

因为他们做天然气液。

Because they they do natural gas liquids.

他们做分馏。

They do fractionate.

他们是这个等式中的另一部分，不是石油。

They are are the other part of the equation, not oil.

那个你没问题。

You're fine on that one.

其实我觉得那个是被低估了，因为大家把它当成会受影响的股票来打压。

As a matter of fact, I think that that one is being taken advantage of because it's getting hit as if it is going to get hurt.

其实不会。

It's not.

我们连线佛罗里达的迈克。

Let's go to Mike in Florida.

迈克。

Mike.

嗨，吉姆，你好吗？

Hey Jim, how are doing?

我挺好的。

I'm doing well.

你呢，迈克？

How about you Mike?

好的。

Good.

好的。

Good.

有个问题。

Question.

SITM，他们最近刚完成收购，有了新产品线，而且需求很大。

SITM, they just recently got through acquisition, new product line, and in demand.

你对他们的前景怎么看？

What's your outlook on them?

好的。

Alright.

听我说。

Look.

这只股票很贵，而且我不推荐任何高价股，不管是科技股还是其他行业的。

It's expensive, and I'm not recommending any expensive stocks in tech or out of tech.

而且我觉得，虽然我认为这是一家管理得很好的公司，但在利率上升的环境下，我就是没法支持高市盈率的股票。

And I think that even though I think it's a very well run company I just can't support a high multiple stock in a rising rate environment.

我们连线德州的约翰。

Let's go to John in Texas.

约翰。

John.

嘿，吉姆，谢谢你接我的电话。

Hey Jim thanks for taking my call.

我只想说，乔·伯德，这个市场有点棘手，就像老鹰队一样，对吧。

I just want to say Joe Byrd this market's kind of tricky like the Eagles right.

嗯，他们得找到办法。

Well they got to find it.

你得找到一些球员。

You got to get a got to find some players.

这是关键。

That's a key thing.

你有四分卫了。

You got a quarterback.

他们需要跑卫。

They need a running back.

他们需要外接手。

They need a wide receiver.

其他方面都没问题。

Otherwise they're fine.

哦不，他们还需要右截锋。

Oh no they need a right tackle.

他们需要左截锋。

They need a left tackle.

还需要中锋。

You need center.

稍等一下。

Just a sec.

他们还行。

They're okay.

但我觉得在第二秒的时候，你懂我在说什么。

But made a second I think in the second you know what I'm talking about.

有什么可以帮你的吗？

How can I help you?

情况只会更糟，但我是个新手。

It only gets worse but I'm a newbie.

我对一个连贯的股票有点印象深刻。

I was kind of impressed with a coherent stock.

我抄底了。

I bought the dip.

我觉得我买错了。

I think I got the wrong one.

我之前是赚的。

I was up.

不不不。

No no no.

Coherent挺好的。

Coherent is good.

Coherent挺好的。

Coherent is good.

动量股也不错。

Momentum is good.

康宁是最好的。

And Corning's best.

别这么想。

Don't feel like that.

你看，现在我们对数据中心会发生什么有些担忧。

Look, right now we're in the midst of a a scare about what's going to happen at data center.

但毫无疑问，铜缆会被光纤取代。

But there is no doubt about it that copper is going to be replaced by fiber.

这只是个演进性的变化，你们公司会从中受益的。

That's just an evolutionary change that your company is going to benefit from.

走吧。

Let's go

轮到安和我，还有印第安纳州了。

to Ann and I and Indiana.

安。

Ann.

印第安纳。

Indiana.

不是那些其他的冰鞋，吉姆。

Not one of those other ice skates, Jim.

天哪，真的假的。

Man, No kidding.

我讨厌那些州。

I hate those states.

现在我有点分心了。

Now I got distracted.

好的。

Okay.

我有一笔Valero的交易，只是作为一笔交易。

I have a Valero just as a trade.

从来没有完全搞定过。

Never got a full Okay.

现在Valero，你明白的。

Now Valero, you understand.

这是世界上最冒险的交易。

This is the riskiest trade in the world.

这个交易从现在开始就是要么翻倍要么归零。

This thing is a double or nothing trade from here.

如果因为战争，你继续得到这么大的裂解价差，你就会赚钱。

If you continue to get this big crack spread because the war, you're gonna make money.

如果没有的话，那瓦莱罗就会回到它以前的样子，就是那种几乎不怎么动的股票。

And if you don't, then Valero is gonna go back to what it always used to be, which is kinda a stock that does very little if not nothing.

各位先生女士，闪电回合到此结束。

And that ladies and gentlemen conclusion up the lightning round.

闪电回合由查尔斯·施瓦布赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来。

Coming up.

克莱默今天在俱乐部会议上没有回答你的问题吗？

Did Cramer not get to your question at today's club meeting?

别担心。

Fear not.

他接下来会继续回答更多问题。

He's answering Cramer some more next.

过去一周，人工智能和数据中心的涨势暂停了。

Over the last week, the AI and data center rally has been put on pause.

面对这么大的波动，尤其是科技股，我们想退一步，回答你们关于市场和投资组合的问题。

With all this volatility, especially in tech, we're gonna take a step back and answer your questions concerning this market and your portfolios.

今天早些时候，我们举行了投资俱乐部的月度会议。

Now earlier today, we held our investing club monthly meeting.

在那次会议上，我和杰夫·马克斯一起，向俱乐部成员讲解我们为投资组合做决策的过程。

That's where Jeff Marks and I get together to walk club members through our decision making process for the portfolio.

那真是太令人兴奋了。

It's so exciting.

我不是在开玩笑。

I'm not kidding.

我们会讨论当前的持仓，然后回答俱乐部成员的问题。

We discuss our current holdings, then we take questions from club members.

会议中我最喜欢的部分就是回答你们的问题。

My favorite part of the meetings is taking questions from you.

但因为我们从来没能把所有问题都回答完，所以现在我要带你们看看月度会议里到底发生了什么。

But since we never have time to get to all of them, I'm gonna give you an inside look right now at what happens at that monthly meeting.

我们还会给出一些大家非常需要的营销建议。

We're also gonna throw out some much needed marketing advice.

顺便说一句，如果你想参加下一次月度会议，我真的很希望你能来。

By the way, if you wanna be a part of the next monthly meeting, and I really do want you.

你得加入这个俱乐部。

You gotta join the club.

只要扫我身后的这个二维码，或者访问cmbc.com/investingclub。

Just scan this QR code behind me or go to cmbc.com/investingclub.

我对这件事充满热情，各位。

I am passionate about this, people.

让我帮你成为最好的投资者。

Let me help you be the best investor you can be.

我们先从阿尔开始，他说，我是一名创始会员。

Why don't we start with Al, who says, I've been a founding member.

我很喜欢这个俱乐部。

I love this club.

嘿。

Hey.

谢谢，阿尔。

Thanks, Al.

既然债券收益率在上升，我们个人投资者买债券的最佳方式是什么？

Given bond yields are rising, what is the best way for us individual investors to buy bonds?

好的。

Okay.

嗯，你看。

Well, look.

我们是玩股票的。

We are stock people.

对吧？

Alright?

当债券收益率上升时，我会买……

And when bond yields are are rising, I buy...

我其实会去买债券，但它们实际上是用来……

I actually go buy bonds, but they're actually for...

数额不小。

It's sizable.

而且你……

And you...

如果你真的想跟踪这个，你真正要做的是把现金储备放在一个……

What you're really gonna do if you just wanna get to track this is you have to wanna get the cash reserve at a...

我不想说得太具体，就是放在一个典型的基金里。

I'm not gonna be any more specific than that at a typical fund.

对吧？

Alright?

因为你拿不到完全一样的利率，但会接近。

Because you're not gonna get the same rate, but you're gonna get near it.

还有定期存单。

There are CDs.

你的银行可能有提供那个利率的定期存单。

Your bank may have CDs that have that rate.

这是最好的办法，但你必须经常检查，因为利率会波动，而且他们……

That's the single best way, but you constantly have to check because they go back and forth, and they...

有时候有，有时候没有。

Sometimes they have and sometimes they don't.

这不是我的专长，但我得告诉你，我觉得定期存单非常棒。

It's not my fort, but I gotta tell you, I think CDs are terrific.

接下来，我们接到来自俄亥俄州的伯尼，他说：七叶树万岁，吉姆。

Next, we have Bernie from Ohio who says, buckeye booyah dah, Jim.

还要感谢杰夫和俱乐部的工作人员。

And kudos to Jeff and the club staff.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你多次提到Builders First Source是住宅建筑领域的顶级公司。

On many occasions, you have mentioned Builders First Source as a top tier player in the homebuilder space.

建筑商被利率压得喘不过气，Builders First Source 从52周高点跌了60%。

With builders crushed by rates and Builders First Source down 60% from 52.

现在是不是该趁它跌出新低，捡点建筑商的股票？

Is it time to shovel up some builders as it digs a new sub basement in your 50?

不。

No.

不。

No.

还没跌完。

It's not done.

因为如果你真觉得美联储会改变立场，你应该买家得宝。

Because if you really think that the Fed is gonna change its view, you wanna buy Home Depot.

这也是我今天在会上说的。

And that's what I said at the meeting today.

我说家得宝是我见过对利率最敏感的股票。

Said Home Depot is the single most levered to rates stock I have ever found.

等待的时候还能有收益。

You get a yield while you're waiting.

这是一家管理得很好的公司。

It's a well run company.

家得宝。

Home Depot.

去买吧。

Go buy it.

在利率变化之前你不会赚到钱，但一旦利率变化，两三天内你就能赚回一整年的收益。

You're not gonna make any money till rates change, but then when they do, in two or three days, you'll make everything you're gonna make for the whole year.

现在我们有来自新泽西的杰夫提问，什么时候投机性投资会变成普通投资？

Now we have Jeff from New Jersey who asked, when does a speculative investment become just an investment?

我们应该用什么指标来判断？

What metrics should we use?

我问这个是因为我有两项投机性投资，Hinge Health 和 Cabba，这两项我都已经收回了原始投资的110%。

Reason I'm asking is I have two speculative investments, Hinge Health and Cabba, both of which I've taken out 110% of my original investment.

所以我是在用赚来的钱在玩。

So I'm playing with the house's money.

首先，恭喜你，杰夫。

First, congratulations, Jeff.

这正好是一。

That's exactly one.

好的。

Okay.

Hinge其实一点都不算投机。

Hinge is actually not speculative at all.

它就是一个非常棒的商业模式。

It's just a fantastic business model.

而且我觉得这家公司的发展方向……

And I think the company's headed...

股价会涨得高得多。

Stock is headed much, much higher.