Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 10/9/26

这是一个很大的区别，而且……

It's a major difference, and it's...

记者们经常搞错这一点。

The journalists get it wrong all the time.

有些……

Some...

顺便说一下，总收入与净收入之间的区别也是如此。

The same goes for, by the way, for the distinction between gross revenue and net revenue.

鉴于这些AI实验室要么不太赚钱，要么真的在亏钱，它们很可能按市销率来估值。

Given that these AI labs are either not very profitable or genuine money losers, they're most likely gonna be valued on a price to sales basis.

但这意味着你需要使用正确的销售数据。

But that means you need to use the right sales numbers.

否则你会高估这家公司。

You're gonna end up overvaluing the company.

归根结底，我认为OpenAI在这里并没有做什么见不得人的事。

In the end, I don't think OpenAI did anything nefarious here at all.

有些记者急着想拿到关于公司状况的独家新闻，结果搞混了听到的具体指标，报道出来的东西缺少了关键背景。

Certain reporters eager to get some sort of scoop about the state of the business got confused about what exact metrics they were hearing and reported something that lacked crucial context.

当然，OpenAI 也没能……

Of course, OpenAI couldn't...

他们本可以在上周那些报道出来的时候澄清事实，省得大家这么多麻烦。

They they could have saved everyone a lot of trouble and corrected the record when those reports were coming out last week.

不过，作为一家私营公司，他们没有义务向公众披露这些信息。

Although, as a private company, they're under no obligation to disclose that to the public.

但真正的要点是，昨天对 OpenAI 或者整个 AI 生态来说，其实并没有变得更糟，尽管有些股票根本没有回升。

But the real takeaway here is that nothing actually got worse yesterday for OpenAI or the broader AI ecosystem, even though some of these stocks did not come back at all.

我去核实的时候，听到的消息是 OpenAI 的情况其实比预期的要好。

When I did my checking, I heard things actually for open AI were better than expected.

不过，这件事也恰恰说明，我们真的需要看到这些 AI 实验室的财务细节。

Still, this one, this only goes to show that we really need to see the details of these AI labs financials.

因为在我们了解更多之前，可能还会有很多像昨天那样的日子，整个板块因为纯粹的误解而遭受重挫。

Because until we do know more, there's probably gonna be a lot more days like yesterday when the whole cohort gets hammered on pure confusion.

这应该会在Anthropic的IPO招股书向公众披露时发生，应该就在接下来的几周内。

Now this should happen whenever, Anthropic IPO prospectus is revealed to the public, which should be the next few weeks.

如果公司仍计划在11月中旬进行IPO，我们越早拿到这些数据，就越早知道超大规模云服务商在AI上的巨额资本支出是否值得。

If the company is still targeting a mid November IPO, the sooner we get these numbers, the sooner we'll know if all this AI capital spending by the hyperscalers has been worth it.

但归根结底，在过去两天里，我们看到的……

But the bottom line, in the past two days, what...

一直以来的……

What's been...

我们看到的是，我们不能一直等着这些领先的AI实验室敞开大门，向我们展示他们在财务上的真实情况。

What we've seen is that we can't wait for these leading AI labs to open the kimono and show us what they've really got, financially speaking.

因为在那之前，我们常常只能靠传闻交易，而传闻是快速亏钱的方式。

Because until that happens, too often we'll be trading on hearsay, and hearsay is a very quick way to lose money.

《疯狂金钱》节目休息一下，马上回来。

Mad Money's back in for the break.

接下来，达美航空能否交出强劲的季度业绩？

Coming up, was Delta able to land a strong quarter?

接下来，克拉默会打电话询问数据，看看情况如何。

Cramer's calling up the numbers to find out next.

人工智能正在改变我们的工作、生活和领导方式。

AI is here transforming how we work, live, and lead.

我采访的那些女性并没有在等待未来。

And the women I talked to aren't waiting for the future.

她们正在塑造未来。

They're shaping it.

我是朱莉娅·博尔斯滕，CNBC的高级媒体与科技记者。

I'm Julia Borsten, senior media and tech correspondent at CNBC.

这里是CNBC的“变革者”节目，在这里，我会与那些在人工智能重塑世界之际引领商业变革的女性领袖对话。

This is CNBC Changemakers, Changemakers, where I talk with the female leaders transforming business as AI reshapes the world.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都可以关注并收听CNBC的“变革者：AI时代的女性领袖”节目。

Follow and listen to CNBC Changemakers, Women Leading in the Age of AI, wherever you get your podcasts.

通常情况下，油价是每桶91美元，而美联储正在通过加息给经济踩刹车。

Normally, price of oil is at $91 a barrel, and the Fed's hitting the brakes on the economy with rate hikes.

你可能会觉得这对航空公司来说是个噩梦般的情景。

You'd You expect that to be a nightmare scenario for the airlines.

几十年来，这些股票一直是典型的暴涨暴跌股，而且暴跌的时候非常惨烈。

For decades, these were textbook boom and bust stocks, and the busts were brutal.

这也是我多年来一直避开它们的原因。

It's why I have stayed away from them for years.

但最近，我指出顶级航空公司似乎正在变得更稳定，因为它们有忠诚的商务客户，这些客户总是愿意为飞机前部最好的座位支付高价。

But lately, I've pointed out that the top airlines seem to be transforming into something more durable with loyal business customers who consistently pay up for the best seats at the front of the plane.

这个观点现在真的在经受考验。

That thesis is really being put to test here.

但目前，我确实很看好我所看到的。

But right now, I really like what I'm seeing.

今天早上，达美航空，作为最好的航空公司之一，公布了小幅的盈利下滑，同时营收也略有不及预期。

This morning, Delta Airlines, one of the best, reported a small earnings, it's paired with a similarly modest revenue miss.

更糟的是，他们确实将全年盈利预期下调了24%。

Worse, they did slash their full year earnings for a bit by twenty four percent.

这影响很大。

That's big.

管理层现在说每股收益可能在5.10到5.60美元之间，比之前的6.50到7.50美元区间下降了。

Management now saying they could earn $5.10 to $5.60 per share, which is down from $6.50 to $7.50 range.

那是之前的预期。

That were the estimates.

但今早低开，股价下跌近4%后，全天都在回升，收盘前转为上涨，因为华尔街早就预料到了这一点，而且华尔街是对的。

But after opening lower and trading down nearly 4% this morning, the stock battled back all day and turned positive just before the close because Wall Street saw this coming, and Wall Street was right.

同时，他们提到本季度每股收益从1.65美元降到1.15美元。

At the same time, they're talking about earnings of a dollar 15 from a dollar 65 for the current quarter.

中间值只比他们之前公布的预期低3美分。

The midpoint's only 3¢ below what they announced were expected.

达美航空甚至预计营收增长20%，而华尔街只预期18%。

Delta's even guided for 20% revenue growth when Wall Street was only looking for 18%.

基本上，他们因为高燃油成本在盈利上受到重创，但航班需求依然强劲。

Basically, they're taking a terrible beating on profitability from high fuel costs, but demand for flights remain strong.

达美航空调整后的喷气燃料价格为每加仑3.61美元，同比上涨了60%。

Delta paid an adjusted $3.61 per gallon of jet fuel, up 60% year over year.

然而，本季度调整后的税前利润大约为15亿美元，比去年增长了约1%。

Yet adjusted pretax profit was roughly $1,500,000,000 for the quarter, up about 1% from last year.

不过，全年来看，燃料成本增加了660亿美元，但管理层认为他们能实现45亿美元的税前利润。

For the full year, though, he had a $66,000,000,000 increase in fuel cost, but management believes they can put up a pretax profit of 4,500,000,000.

这比去年只少了5亿美元。

That's only down 500,000,000 from last year.

这太不可思议了。

That's incredible.

达美航空能够通过增加额外收入来抵消大部分损失。

Delta's been able to generate enough additional revenue to offset most of the damage.

好的。

Alright.

所以，我的意思是，我……

So, I mean, I...

这个……

The the...

这真的是有点不可能做到的事。

This was really kind of an impossible.

他们是怎么做到的？

How they how they pull this off?

好吧。

Okay.

公司的优质服务收入增长了18%，达到668.2亿美元。

The company's premium revenue grew 18% to $66,820,000,000.

现在他们从头等舱、商务舱和加长腿部空间座位赚的钱比经济舱还多。

They're now making more money from first class business class and expanded legroom seats than they are from coach.

优质服务的销售额增长了6%，但在电话会议上，我们看到了一个特别令人鼓舞的细节。

Premium sales increased 6%, but on the conference call, we're in an especially encouraging detail.

优质服务的载客率上升了将近两个百分点，而且票价也上涨了。

Premium load factors rose almost two percentage points, which while fares also increased too.

达美航空增加了高级座位的供应，填满了更多座位，还提高了票价。

Delta added premium capacity, filled more of it, and charged more too.

这是最理想的需求类型，而且事实证明它相当稳定。

This is the best kind of demand, and it's proven to be pretty sticky.

这就是我一直说的那种有钱没时间的客户。

This is the long on money, short on time customer that I always talk about.

疫情之后，那些一直被困在家里的人决定要弥补失去的时间。

After COVID, people who have been stuck at home decided they wanna make up for lost time.

那他们会做什么呢？

And what do they do?

他们会去旅行。

They travel.

他们会去体验。

They get an experience.

我原以为那可能只是暂时的。

I thought that might be temporary.

不过，现在看起来这更像是一种持久的变化，就像大萧条那样，永久性地影响了我父母那一代人的银行观念。

Increasingly, though, it looks like a lasting change, the same way that the great depression permanently soured my parents' generational banks.

今天早上，达美航空的CEO鲍曼在交易时段通过语音通讯设备发表了讲话，而我当时正在准备接下来的内容。

Now this morning, Delta CEO, Basham came on a squawk box to speak while I don't fill the bow.

他表示目前没有看到预订量放缓的迹象。

He said he wasn't seeing a slowdown in bookings.

所以在电话会议中我们了解到，第四季度预订率已经超过60%，而且明年第一季度的早期趋势也令人鼓舞。

So the conference call, we learned that the fourth quarter was already more than 60% booked with encouraging early trends for the first quarter of next year.

价格都在涨。

Prices are up.

这简直不可思议。

It's incredible.

连通胀都在挤压消费者的钱包。

Even inflation is squeezing the consumer.

但达美那些有钱的商务客却不受影响。

Delta's well heeled premium customers.

他们好像感觉不到有什么区别。

They don't seem to know the difference.

而且你看，这种强劲势头不只体现在头等舱。

And look, the strength extends beyond the front of the plane.

经济舱收入增长了12%，单位收入增长了17%，而座位数略有下降。

Main cabin revenue increased 12% with unit revenue, up 17%, while seats declined modestly.

当然，公司运力基本持平，但收入增长了近16%。

Of course, the company capacity was essentially flat, while revenue rose nearly 16%.

过去，航空公司会在经济好的时候大肆扩张，经济放缓时又迅速收缩。

In the old days, the airlines would expand aggressively when times were good, then get pancakes slow when the economy slowed down.

近年来，他们在增加运力方面更加谨慎，这确实带来了回报。

In more recent years, they've been a lot more disciplined about adding new capacity, and that's really paying off.

而且空客和波音可供出售的飞机也不多，这也有帮助。

It helps that there aren't a lot of planes for sale from either Airbus or Boeing.

企业销售在各行业都实现了两位数增长，其中银行、科技和能源行业表现最为突出。

Corporate sales grew at double digit rates across every sector led by banking, technology, and energy.

劳动节后的那一周，是达美航空历史上企业销售最强的一周。

The week after Labor Day was Delta's strongest corporate sales week in history.

这简直不可思议。

Can't make sense.

好得让人难以置信。

That's unbelievably good.

他的企业调查中，超过90%的受访者预计明年的出行量会增加或保持稳定。

More than 90% of respondents to his corporate survey expect travel to increase or remain stable next year.

国内和国际的单位收入也普遍改善。

Domestic international unit revenues also improved broadly.

太棒了。

That's fantastic.

我是说，在Zoom经济时代，这本来是不应该发生的。

I mean, in the Zoom economy, that wasn't supposed to happen.

但显然它正在发生。

It's obviously happening.

然后是忠诚度计划。

Then there's loyalty.

今年，达美航空有望从与美国运通合作的SkyMiles联名卡项目中获得超过90亿美元的收入。

This year, Delta's on track to receive more than $9,000,000,000 from marketing express SkyMiles partnership.

持卡人消费已经连续八个季度实现两位数增长。

Cardholder spending grew at a double digit clip for the eighth consecutive quarter.

奖励计划将成为业务中最亮眼的部分。

The rewards programs are gonna be the best part of the business.

公司还外包了飞机维修业务，上个季度收入增长了28%。

The company also has outsourced airline maintenance business that saw 28% revenue this past quarter.

仅到九月份，这项业务就带来了大约十亿美元的收入。

Just through September, it's brought in about a billion dollars.

达美认为未来几年这项业务还能翻一番以上。

Delta thinks they can more than double that business over the next several years.

基本上，这家航空公司对实际航班的依赖程度已经大大降低了。

Basically, this airline is much less hostage to actual flights than it used to be.

哦，在核心航空业务方面，达美本季度在准点到达和起飞方面领先行业，这当然没什么坏处。

Oh, within the core airline business, it certainly doesn't hurt that Delta led the industry in one time arrivals and departures this quarter.

难怪高端客户愿意多花钱。

No wonder premium customers are willing to pay up.

终于有一家航空公司能给他们提供像样的服务了。

There's finally an airline that gives them decent service.

现在，第四季度的展望假设喷气燃料大约每加仑4.25美元，其中包括达美自己的炼油厂带来的40美分的收益。

Now the fourth quarter outlook assumes jet fuel approximately $4.25 a gallon, including a 40¢ benefit from Delta's refinery, their own refinery.

那个炼油厂提供了一个非常有用的抵消作用，但显然不足以抵消每磅91美元的油价带来的影响。

That refinery provides a very useful offset, but it's not enough, obviously, to cancel out the impact of oil at $91 a pound.

所以埃德·巴斯蒂安描绘了一个相当乐观的长期前景。

So Ed Bastian painted a pretty darn bullish picture long term.

达美一直在提高票价来弥补那些燃油成本，

Delta's been raising fares to recover the...

到目前为止，客户群体的抵制有限。

Those fuel costs, and so far, there's been limited resistance from their customer base.

一旦与伊朗的战争结束，或者至少缓和到油价能够回落的程度，这家航空公司就会开始大把赚钱。

Once the war with Iran ends or at least fizzles to the point that oil can come down, this airline will be printing money.

当然，这得假设行业内的其他公司能保持自律，不盲目增加新飞机，并且在定价上保持克制。

Of course, that assumes the rest of the industry stays disciplined about adding new planes and holds a lot on pricing.

但我愿意打赌……

But I'd be willing to bet...

这个赌可以打，因为市场上根本没有足够的新飞机可以买，而且达美航空的状况比以前好多了。

Take that bet because there just aren't enough new planes that can be bought, and Delta is in much better shape than it used to be.

分析师们也看到了同样的趋势。

The analysts are seeing the same thing.

沃尔夫强调，尽管燃油价格冲击，公司仍在按盈利水平支出，这表明达美航空加速增长的单位收入可能会在竞争对手中脱颖而出。

Wolf emphasized the company roughly spending earnings despite the fuel shock, suggesting that Delta's accelerating unit revenue could stand out against competitors.

杰富瑞看好其收入增长势头。

Jefferies like the revenue momentum.

瑞银认为这份业绩表现稳健。

UBS viewed this results as solid.

伯恩斯坦对成本和第四季度的前景更为谨慎。

Bernstein tad more cautious about costs and the fourth quarter outlook.

高盛指出，强劲的营收指引基本符合投资者的预期。

Goldman noted the strong revenue guidance largely match investors' expectations.

但你看这个，这些目标价。

But look at this, the price targets here.

有一只82美元的股票。

Got an 82 stock.

沃尔夫的目标价是90美元。

Wolf is a $90 price target.

杰富瑞是95美元。

Jeffrey's 95.

伯恩斯坦是100美元。

Bernstein, 100.

瑞银是10.05美元。

UBS, $10.05.

高盛，目标价114美元。

Goldman Sachs, $1.14.

这……

That...

这真是信心的体现。

That's a real vote of confidence.

所以尽管业绩不及预期，这些目标价还是很漂亮的。

So with the numbers being missed, these are beautiful price targets.

在这个价位，股价仅为明年预期收益的10倍多一点，不算贵。

At these levels, the stocks trading just over 10 times next year's earnings estimates, not expensive.

瑞银和高盛预计戴尔明年每股收益将超过8美元。

UBS and Goldman are looking for Dell to earn more than $8 a share next year.

市场共识要低一些。

Consensus is about lower.

大约是7.68美元，低了10美分。

It's 10¢ about $7.68.

这些预测取决于燃油、票价和成本，但复苏的潜力相当可观。

Those forecasts depend on fuel, fares, and cost, but the recovery potential is pretty meaningful.

如果盈利也变得更可预测，投资者最终可能会给达美航空更高的市盈率。

If the earnings also become more predictable, investors could eventually word Delta a higher price to earnings multiple.

这就是老……

And that is the old...

这就是我们……

That's what we...

我在书里讲过，如何获得更高的市盈率，以及股价如何因此上涨。

I talk about how in the book, how you can get a higher PE, and that's how stock can go higher.

好的。

Alright.

那埃隆·马斯克的最新猛烈抨击呢？

How about the latest broadside from Elon Musk?

我们来解决这个问题。

Let's solve this problem.

当达美航空选择亚马逊即将推出的卫星互联网服务LEO，用于其下一代机上Wi-Fi，而不是星链时，马斯克预测埃德·巴斯蒂安会因此丢掉工作。

When Delta picked Amazon's forthcoming satellite Internet service, LEO, for its next generation in flight Wi Fi rather than Starling, Musk predicted that Ed Bastian would lose his job over this.

常看我们节目的观众都知道我为什么喜欢星链。

Regular viewers know why I like Starling.

也许我真的很喜欢星链。

Maybe I love Starling.

但今天早上巴斯蒂安在采访中基本上拒绝回应马斯克。

But in his interview this morning, Bastian basically refused to engage with Musk.

他始终专注于客户和业务，而业务的表现比在这种环境下应有的好得多。

He stayed focused on the customers and the business, which is doing much better than has any right to do in this environment.

所以让我给你总结一下这个非常鼓舞人心、精彩的故事。

So let me give you the bottom line in this very encouraging, terrific story.

我不会急着去买航空股。

I'm not rushing to buy an airline.

明白吗？

Okay?

不是冲着燃油价格上涨去的，但我相信埃德·巴斯蒂安对菲利普·洛说的那番话。

Not into the fuel spike, but I buy the story that Ed that Ed Bashan told Philip Lowe.

达美航空的业绩数字非常惊人，以至于他们能抵消燃油成本上涨的很大一部分。

Delta's putting up incredible numbers to the point where they're able to offset a huge chunk of the increase in fuel costs.

一旦原油价格回落，我觉得他们会赚得盆满钵满。

Once the price of crude comes back down, I think they'll make out like bandits.

今天早上股价从低点大幅反弹，最终收涨，这不是没有原因的。

There's a reason the stock rebounded hard from its lows this morning and finished the session in positive territory.

原因就是达美航空比以往任何时候都要好。

The reason is Delta's better than ever.

现在我们要去加州的斯坦福。

Now we're gonna go to Stanford in California.

斯坦福。

Stanford.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你今天过得怎么样？

How are doing today?

我挺好的，斯坦福。

I am doing well, Stanford.

你怎么样？

How are you doing?

我很好。

I'm great.

谢谢。

Thanks.

我想听听你对奥的斯电梯的看法。

I wanted to get your thoughts on Otis Elevator.

我知道他们对中国房地产市场有一些敞口，但我也知道这只股票已经跌得很惨了。

I know they have some exposure to the Chinese housing market, but I know the stock's been pretty well punished.

好的。

Okay.

这个问题有点棘手，因为奥的斯，说实话，在中国的表现不太好。

Now this is a tough one because Otis, candidly, China's not been great.

他们其实更多是靠服务收入来赚钱的。

They're really much more in the service revenue game.

股价已经跌下来了。

The stock has come down.

跌到了20多……

It's down to 20...

今年跌了24%，但我看不到任何催化剂。

Down 24% for the year, but I see no catalyst.

没有催化剂，我不能仅仅因为便宜就推荐一只股票。

Without a catalyst, I can't recommend a stock just because it's cheap.

好的。

Alright.

我相信达美航空在巴斯蒂恩讲的故事。

I buy the story that Delta's at Bastion is telling.

一旦燃油价格恢复正常，我觉得达美航空会处于一个很好的位置。

Once fuel prices normalize, I think Delta could be in a great position.

现在到了克莱默最喜欢的环节，我分散投资了吗？

Now much Cramer favorite game, Am I Diversified?

华尔街和金融媒体总是喜欢纠结那些晦涩难懂的术语。

And Wall Street financial media love to get stuck on esoteric terms.

但我觉得是时候淘汰其中一个了。

But I think it's time to retire one of them.

它真的让我很烦。

It's really getting on my nerves.

你想听听这个吗？

You wanna hear about this?

我来解释一下。

I'm gonna explain.

这就是为什么你叫我们今晚的快速问答环节为“闪电轮”。

And why you call us rapid fire tonight's just central lighting round.

所以请继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

标普指数接近历史高点，但这并不意味着你不应该为波动做好准备。

The S and P is near record highs, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be prepared for volatility.

在这个市场，一篇关于私营公司的文章就能让整个板块的股票变绿为红。

And this market with one article about a private company can send an entire cohort of stocks to keep them to red.

这提醒你，如果你想保持稳定并继续参与游戏，你需要分散投资。

It's a reminder that you need to be diversified if you wanna stay afloat and stay in the game.

这就是为什么今晚我们玩“我是否分散投资？”

That's why tonight we're playing am I diversified?

这就是你打电话进来的环节。

That's where you call in.

你告诉我你最大的五个持仓。

You give me top five holies.

然后我告诉你，你的投资是否足够分散，或者你是否需要稍微调整一下。

And I tell you if you're diversified enough or maybe you need to mix it up a little.

我们先从爱达荷州的玛丽开始。

We're gonna start with Mary in Idaho.

玛丽，你带来了什么？

Mary, what do got for me?

嗯，吉姆，好久没跟你聊了。

Well, Jim, it's been a minute since I talked to you.

祝你周末愉快。

Happy TGIF.

天哪。

Oh my god.

对。

Yes.

而且是一周中最棒的一天。

And great day of the week.

我……

I've...

我最后还是放弃Chewy了。

I finally gave up on Chewy.

虽然我很不想这样，但我实在看不下去它继续跌了。

Much as I hated to, I just couldn't bear to see it go down any further.

我理解你。

I hear you.

我们也是用户，但你知道，也就仅此而已，对吧？

We're we're a user, but, you know, I mean, that's about the extent of it, isn't it?

是的。

It is.

我是说，我实在想不出还能从别的地方买狗用品，因为他们真的做得太好了。

I mean, I I can't envision ordering dog things from anywhere else because they are so good.

确实。

True.

但有时候你只能闭上眼睛，告诉自己一切会好起来的。

But sometimes you just have to close your eyes and say it's gonna get better.

好的。

Alright.

那我们来看看我们有什么。

So let's go over what we got.

我持有的五只股票是：我的两只长期持有、不交易的，苹果和英伟达，还有美光、摩根大通和亚马逊。

The five stocks I have are my two on it, don't trade it, Apple and NVIDIA, Marvel, JP Morgan, and Amazon.

哇。

Wow.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

这对我来说有点难，玛丽。

This is a little tough for me, Mary.

我没办法……

I can't...

我不会试图让你卖掉其中一只，因为我说过，别交易。

I'm not gonna try to tell you to sell one of these because I say, oh, don't trade.

嘿。

Hey.

我们有过不错的交易。

We had good trade.

我一直说在低位买苹果。

Always said buy Apple down there.

我赚了3.32美元。

I get $3.32.

但问题在这里。

But here's the problem.

至于摩根大通，我觉得它本季度表现不错。

And JPMorgan, I think it would have put a good quarter.

算不上特别出色。

Not a great quarter.

不错的季度。

Good quarter.

这只股票比其他股票稍微高了一点，但没关系。

The stock's a little bit too high versus the others, but that's okay.

这是一个平稳的上升趋势，只是……

It's a nice steady slope by j...

摩根大通越是被打击，情况就越是这样。

By more JPMorgan gets hit.

好的。

Alright.

现在这些是马特·墨菲经营Marvell的公司。

Now these are ones where Matt Murphy runs Marvell.

我认识马特很多年了，我们还有安迪·贾西或者亚马逊。

I've known Matt for years, and we got Andy Jassy or an Amazon.

这两只股票都在同步交易。

These are both trading together.

所谓分散投资，就是你不希望太多股票一起波动。

And the notion of being diversified is you don't wanna have too many stocks trading together.

我们得……

We are going to have to...

马特·墨菲，把耳朵捂上。

Matt Murphy, close your ears.

我们打算卖掉Marvell，然后下周等强生发财报的时候买一些。

We're going out to sell Marvell, and we're gonna buy some j and j next week when it reports.

行吗？

Okay?

所以我们周一卖Marvell，买点强生。

So we're gonna sell Marvell Monday and buy some j and j.

亚马逊暂时先留着，因为现在亚马逊更像是一个观察对象。

We'll let you keep Amazon for right right now because Amazon right now is being much more of a look.

其实我也应该让你把亚马逊也卖了。

I should I should tell you to sell the Amazon too.

我就是不想这么做。

I just don't wanna do it.

我不想卖掉所有我真正喜欢的股票。

I don't wanna sell all the stocks I really like.

玛丽，我为你破个例。

Mary, I'm making an exception for you.

我碰巧很喜欢亚马逊，但你的投资组合里科技股太多了，遇到像昨天那样的科技股大跌，你会吃亏的。

I happen to love Amazon, but this has too much tech, and you will get hurt on a bad tech day like we had yesterday.

不过谢谢你的来电。

But thank you for the call.

很高兴你卖掉了Chewy。

I'm glad you got out of Chewy.

孩子们好像拿不住……

Kids seem to hold the the...

好像拿不住，比如25块那个。

Can't seem to hold, like, the 25 o.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，我们接到乔的电话，他来自我的家乡新泽西州。

Next up, we've got Joe in my home state of New Jersey.

乔。

Joe.

你好，克莱默先生，谢谢你接听我的电话。

Hello, mister Cramer, and thank you for taking my call.

我想告诉你，明天我会去拉瓦莱特海滩钓鱼，但我还没钓到条纹鲈鱼。

I just wanna let you know tomorrow, will be in Lavalet surf fishing, and I still haven't gotten a striped bass.

希望明天能有好运。

Hopefully, tomorrow is the day.

你会的。

You will.

我喜欢这种方式，伙计。

I love the way, man.

我也在那儿钓鱼。

I fish there.

我和福尔多一起在诺曼底海滩钓鱼。

I fish Normandy Beach with Fordo.

你知道，那个区域鱼很多。

You know, do a lot of fish in that area.

我喜欢在LBI钓鱼。

I love LBI fishing.

太喜欢了。

Love.

我的五只股票是苹果、好市多、思科系统、微软和默克。

My five stocks are Apple, Costco, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, and Merck.

克莱默先生，我的投资组合够分散吗？

Mister Cramer, am I diversified?

好的。

Alright.

这个问题也挺棘手的。

Now this is another tough one.

乔这回可把我难住了。

Joe's got me over barrel here.

嗯，显然我很喜欢默克，而且我觉得他们做得非常好。

Well, obviously, I like Merck, and I I think that they are doing incredibly well.

对他们来说，这段时间确实很顺利。

It's just been a good good period for them.

今天好像有不少数字上涨。

Sort of a bunch of number bumps today.

好市多，我去的是尼普顿那家店，约翰。

Costco, I go to my Neptune Costco down there, John.

我不知道

I don't

你开车下来的时候有没有经过尼普顿的好市多，就在...

know if you passed the Neptune Costco on the way down the level at...

如果你那么走，那就走错路了，不过没关系。

If you did, you'd be taking the wrong way, but that's okay.

那还挺不错的。

It's pretty good.

苹果自己拥有它。

Apple's own it.

别交易它。

Don't trade it.

那现在我们该怎么办？

So now what do we do?

我们有微软和思科。

We have Microsoft and Cisco.

现在我周末有空了。

Now I got the weekend.

我的意思是，我也不太清楚。

I mean, I don't know.

查克·罗宾斯可能正在听。

Chuck Robbins is probably listening.

查克从来不会错过这个节目。

Chuck never misses the show.

查克，我们得去……

Chuck, we're have to get...

乔，你得卖掉你的思科股票，因为你得走了，而且你持有的科技股太多了。

You have to trade your Cisco, Joe, because you gotta go and you got too much too much tech.

而且我……

And I...

而且不管我们看哪里，都有数据中心的风险敞口之类的。

And wherever we look, we've got data center exposure, whatever.

我觉得你需要考虑富国银行。

I think that you need to be thinking Wells Fargo.

我真的很喜欢富国银行。

I really like Wells Fargo.

他们下周发布财报。

They report next week.

我觉得会非常好。

I think it'd be very good.

微软又是，太多了。

Microsoft again, such a lot.

艾米·胡德。

Amy Hood.

我是说，我在看我的高管，他知道我对艾米·胡德有多看重。

I mean, like, I'm looking at my executive person knows how much I mean of Amy Hood.

很棒。

Great.

今年在杜克大学的毕业演讲非常精彩。

Tremendous commencement address at Duke this year.

而且为了……

And for...

不选微软了，我想换成RTX，就选RTX。

Instead of that one, instead of Microsoft, I wanna go with RTX, and I'm gonna go with RTX.

我们现在在波音，但RTX跌得比波音还惨，你能想象吗？因为现在还有国防业务，我想看看它表现如何。

We're in Boeing right now, but RTX is down worse than Boeing even if you can imagine because there's also defense just for this moment, and I wanna see how that acts.

不过无论如何，我必须做这些调整，因为昨天这个投资组合表现很糟糕，这不是大家想要的。

But anyway, I I I have to make these changes because yesterday, this portfolio was killed, and that's not what people want.

现在让我们连线佛罗里达的托尼。

Now let's go to Tony in Florida.

托尼。

Tony.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

非常感谢你所做的一切。

Thank you very much for everything you do.

我知道你们都会这么说，但我真的发自内心感谢。

I know you all say that, but I really mean it.

非常感谢。

It's Thank you very much.

哦，我会继续做下去的，所以别担心。

Oh, I'm gonna keep doing it, so don't worry.

好的。

Okay.

我们开始干活吧。

Let's go to work.

我希望你继续。

I hope you do.

我的五只股票是亚马逊，AMZN，钻石地产，SPG，帕洛阿尔托，PANW。

My five stocks are Amazon, a m z n, Diamond Properties, s p g, Palo Alto, p a n w.

然后我们有CVS和威瑞森DZ。

Then we got CVS and Verizon DZ.

我说得对吗？

Am I Alright.

让我

Let me

来处理这件事。

go to work on this.

让我来处理这件事。

Let me go to work on this.

好的。

Okay.

威瑞森，我们看到他们今天被SpaceX进入内城、进入摩天大楼等消息打击得很惨。

Verizon, we saw how they they were crushed today by the fact that SpaceX is is going into the inner cities, which is gonna be in in skyscrapers and everything.

这……

It's...

它可能会反弹，但我坚信，当SpaceX进来时，作为SpaceX的用户，其他所有人都会……

It'll probably bounce, but I directly believe that when SpaceX comes in as I'm a user of SpaceX, then everybody else get...

最终确实会被淘汰。

Does indeed eventually get blown out.

所以我们保留这个，但我们会注意，我更希望看到SpaceX。

So we're gonna keep that, but we're gonna be mindful that I would rather see in SpaceX.

CVS，我们通过了那些测试……

CVS, we passed the test of those...

我们之前担心的那个计划中的星级测试。

The star test that we were worried about for the plan.

CVS表现不错。

CVS did fine.

我们现在把它归为医疗保健。

We're gonna call that health care now.

我们不会只把它叫做零售。

We're not gonna just call it retail.

Palo Alto Networks和他们做的网络安全……

Palo Alto Networks and cyber securities that they do...

这是Nikesh Arora，我的心和总统在一起。

This is Nikesh Arora, who my soul was with the president.

我觉得那太棒了，尼凯什。

I thought that was terrific Nikesh.

西蒙地产，我在佛罗伦萨大约三十分钟车程的地方，去了一个很漂亮的西蒙购物中心。

Simon Properties, I was in beautiful Simon Property Mall about thirty minutes from Florence.

那里非常棒。

It was fantastic.

已故的大卫·西蒙打造了一家了不起的公司。

The late David Simon's built an amazing company.

然后亚马逊，我们之前想把它叫做数据公司，或者零售商。

And then Amazon, we were trying to call that a data company earlier or a retailer.

我觉得两者都可以。

I think you could do both.

医疗、零售、房地产投资信托、网络安全，还有电信。

Healthcare, retail, real estate investment trust, cybersecurity, and telco.

那太完美了。

That's perfect.

这个我接受。

I'll take that.

我的意思是，我知道……

I mean, I know...

你知道，有些人会说，吉姆，别这样。

You know, some people say, well, Jim, come on.

亚马逊和帕洛……

Amazon and pal...

和帕洛阿尔托。

And Palo Alto.

不。

No.

我愿意接受这个。

I'm willing to accept that.

这是两码事。

Those are two different buckets.

我想感谢大家在非常非常困难的情况下参与。

And I wanna thank everyone for playing on very, very difficult.

因为大家都被科技搞得焦头烂额。

I mean, because everyone's so riddled with tech.

你必须非常小心。

You gotta be very careful.

去看看我为CNBC投资俱乐部准备的组合，以获得更多元化的投资。

Go check to see my portfolio that I have for the CNBC investing club for some more diversification.

每个人都需要它。

Everybody needed it.

我是不是刚休息完回来？

Am I just back after a break?

是时候谈谈了

Is time to talk

关于白山清仓和白山

to the White Mountain Clears and the White

克莱尔斯。

Clears

你准备好了吗，史蒂夫？

Are you ready, Steve?

这是在去克莱尔斯的路上，还有理查德·纽约那边的头脑。

That's on the way to clear Clears the and the minds over and with Richard New York.

理查德。

Richard.

吉利，吉姆。

Geely, Jim.

先生，谢谢你接我的电话。

Thank you for taking my call, sir.

这是我的荣幸。

Been my pleasure.

我做了很多，我的所有成功都归功于听你的节目，我非常感激。

I've done a lot of I owe all my success to listening to you, and I appreciate it.

谢谢

Thank you

非常感谢。

very much.

谢谢你，兄弟。

Thank you, man.

谢谢。

Thank you.

有点骄傲。

A little pride.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这是历史上最长的一天。

This is the longest day in history.

为此我要感谢你。

I thank you for that.

不客气。

You're welcome.

我打电话来是想问一下Cortiva这只股票，我最近持有它。

I'm calling about a stock Cortiva, which I've owned recently.

它是从Weiler分拆出来的，

It got spun off with Weiler,

对，没错。

and Right.

有一个很充分的理由继续持有……

There's a compelling reason to keep...

或者说，我是说，让两者都成功。

Or, I mean, for both to be successful.

我该怎么办？

What do I do?

我要两个都留着吗？

Do I keep two?

你是想让我建议你留着那只‘开眼股’吧。

Do I want you to keep the eye opener.

我们做了相当深入的分析。

We did a pretty good analysis.

Ben So to，我们的首席研究总监，其实也是唯一的研究总监，他和我反复琢磨过这件事，绝对没有任何理由让你选择这只股票而不是Villar，我认为Villar明显更好。

Ben So to, our chief research director and also our only research director really was he and I were beaten around this thing and there's absolutely no reason why you would want to own this one over the Villar which is absolutely a better one I think.

我们接听北卡罗来纳州的Bobby的电话。

Let's go to Bobby in North Carolina.

Bobby。

Bobby.

嘿，Jim。

Hey, Jim.

我一直都在关注你。

I've been watching you all my life.

你，你，你，你真是传奇人物。

You are you are you you you are legendary.

传奇人物。

Legendary.

我想称赞你们优秀的员工。

I want to commend your beautiful staff.

我住院的时候，他们从来没有放弃过我。

They never gave up on me when I'm in patient.

我儿子正在接受治疗。

My son is on to o n t o.

是的。

I do.

我……

I...

这不是谎言。

It's not a lie.

好的。

Alright.

我打算这么做。

Here's what I wanna do.

你显然非常激动，我真的很欣赏这一点。

You're obviously really fired up and I really like that.

我们会更仔细地研究一下 On To，因为它是另一家做过程控制解决方案的公司，这类公司都很难理解。

And we're gonna take a harder look at on to because it's another one of these companies that's process control solutions and they're all really hard to understand.

因为你一开始就这么热情，我会给你一个更深入的分析，而不只是简单说我喜欢它。

And I'm gonna give you, because of the way you came in fired up, a better read than I can just say I like it.

你值得更好的回应。

You deserve better than that.

我们连线新泽西的拉里。

Let's go to Larry in New Jersey.

拉里。

Larry.

嘿，

Hey,

吉姆。

Jim.

我是来自新泽西州韦恩的拉里·克拉克。

Larry Clark from Wayne, New Jersey.

哦，太好了。

Oh, great.

我喜欢韦恩。

Like I Wayne.

今天那边怎么样？

What's going on up there today?

好。

Good.

好。

Good.

我要

I'm gonna

去打彩弹。

do some paintball.

那边。

There.

我们会去打彩弹。

We'll do some paintball.

怎么了？

What's going on?

就这样。

That's it.

嗯，我们这边也有个大球。

Well, we we had a big ball here as well.

打电话来问的是房地产抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金，而不是最近被打击得很惨的抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金。

Calling calling about a real estate mortgage REIT as opposed to the mortgage REITs, which have been getting hammered lately.

公司拥有房产，在高档郊区和正在发展的城市地区有220家酒店。

Company owns properties, 220 hotels in high end suburban areas and developing urban areas as well.

所以是喜来登。

So Sheraton's.

我

I

知道。

know it.

我知道问题所在。

I know it's the problem.

我知道，拉里。

I know it Larry.

问题在这里。

Here's the problem.

如果我认为利率会升到6%。

If I think rates are going to go to 6%.

是的。

Yes.

如果我觉得利率会

If I think rates are

涨到

going to

6%，那我就不能持有那只股票。

go to 6% then I can't own that.

我不能持有那只股票。

I can't own that stock.

买那只股票最终会亏钱的。

You're going to end up losing money to buy that stock.

而且我觉得利率有可能涨到6%。

And I think rates can go to 6%.

我们连线弗吉尼亚的道格。

Let's go to Doug in Virginia.

道格。

Doug.

你好，吉姆。

Hello Jim.

能和你通话是我的荣幸。

It's an honor to speak with you.

我是第一次

I'm a first

打电话，但关注很久了。

time caller long time.

是的。

Yes.

太好了。

Excellent.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yes.

怎么了？

What's up?

是的，吉姆。

Yes, Jim.

我想听听你对EchoStar的看法，特别是他们和SpaceX达成合作之后，作为一个长期投资者，你怎么看？

I'm interested in your opinion on EchoStar in light of their deal with SpaceX for a long term investor by Okay.

我今天读了一篇很有见地的文章，讲的是EchoStar可能会被SpaceX收购，我我我……

I I I read today a very informative piece about how EchoStar could get a bid from SpaceX, and I I I...

这……

It's...

这篇文章非常有说服力。

It was very compelling.

我一直不太看好这只股票，但我当然不能……

I I've not liked the stock, but I certainly can't.

我不能对那个收购传闻视而不见。

I cannot be oblivious to that takeover talk.

我们连线伊利诺伊州的杰瑞。

Let's go to Jerry in Illinois.

杰瑞。

Jerry.

吉姆，你好。

Good day, Jim.

我可能是你最早的粉丝之一。

I'm probably one of your earliest followers.

我永远是俱乐部的成员。

I'm a of the club forever.

哦，谢谢你。

Oh, thank you.

我喜欢俱乐部成员的这个称呼。

I love the club members name.

吉姆·克莱默，感谢吉姆·克莱默和《疯狂金钱》。

Jim Cramer, courtesy of Jim Cramer and Mad Money.

你让我儿子在内华达州上完了大学，我永远感激不尽。

You put my son through college in Nevada forever grateful.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我有点说不出话了。

I can't make my question.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我是说，我不是在编这些。

I mean, I'm not making this stuff.

我是说，我不认识这位来电者，而伊利诺伊州的杰瑞能这么说，真是太好了。

I mean, I don't know this caller and and Jerry from Illinois kind enough to say that.

谢谢你，杰瑞。

And thank you, Jerry.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这是事实。

It's a fact.

确实是事实。

It is a fact.

我们重仓了礼来。

We're heavy into Eli Lilly.

我妻子还投资了一家叫爵士制药的公司。

My wife branch out to a company Jazz Pharmaceuticals.

好的。

Okay.

现在你开始进入一个非常投机的领域，不过他们确实在赚钱。

Now you're starting to go into a very speculative situation where they actually do make money, though.

我要说，我会对爵士制药说可以。

I'm going to say I'm gonna say yes to Jazz Pharmaceuticals.

我觉得从现在到摩根大通会议期间，生物科技板块会表现很好。

I think the biotech between here and the JP Morgan conference is gonna do very well.

我喜欢这个，谢谢你的好评。

I like that one, and I thank you for the kind comments.

这也结束了我们的快问快答环节。

And that lends our conclusion of the lightning round.

快问快答环节由查尔斯·施瓦布赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

我们得做点什么。

We need to do something.

我们得淘汰“AI交易”这种说法。

We need to retire the term trade as in the AI trade.

用这种说法来形容一个庞大且已经扎根的行业是不对的。

That's the wrong way to speak about a gigantic industry that's very much here to stay.

我们经常听到交易员问，AI交易是不是结束了，或者AI交易是不是已经死了？

Far too often, we hear traders query, is the AI trade over or is the AI trade dead?

这让你感到困惑。

That's confusing to you.