疯狂金钱 与吉姆·克莱默 2/4/26

我认为这家银行有望成为全球最盈利的银行之一，正稳步朝着2028年实现20%有形权益回报率的目标前进。

I think this one's on track to become one of the most profitable banks in the world, marching steadily towards their goal of 20% return on tangible equity by 2028.

哇。

Wow.

但别光听我说。

But don't take it from me.

今天早些时候，我们有机会采访了安娜·布蒂南。

Earlier today, we got a chance to speak with Anna Boutin.

她是西班牙桑坦德银行的执行主席。

She's the executive chair of Banco Santander.

请看。

Take a look.

布蒂南女士，

Ms.

欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Boutin, welcome back to Mad Money.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我很好，因为你又一次为你的股东创造了价值。

Well, I'm good because once again you delivered for the people who are in your stock.

顺便说一下，很多人在你刚上节目时以3到4美元的价格买入了股票，而现在股价已经涨了三倍甚至更多。

And by the way, a lot of them got in because it was at 3 and four when you started coming on, and now of course you have a triple or more.

而你之所以能做到这一点，我非常钦佩。

And one of the reasons why you have that, I am so impressed.

你始终追求盈利能力。

You go for profitability.

这一直是你的信条，并且在你运营的每个国家都取得了成效。

That's been your mantra, and it's working at every country that you're in.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

在我们每一个业务和地域中，成为最盈利的银行是我们的重要目标。

Profitability being the most profitable bank in each one of our businesses and geographies is our big goal.

而且，显然我们也希望增长。

And, obviously, we also wanna grow.

所以，是的，盈利和增长并重。

So, yes, profitability and growth.

此外，我认为还有一种略显全面的战略。

There also is a strategy that I think is a little holistic.

在美国，许多大型银行只关注富人。

A lot of people in America, the the big banks, they just want rich people.

他们确实如此。

They do.

他们就是这样宣称的。

That's how they they claim.

他们就是靠这个赚大钱的。

That's how they make the big money.

你追求规模。

You go for scale.

在任何其他行业，如果我们做科技，我们知道规模就是胜利。

In any other business, if we were doing technology, we know that scale is win.

你的规模使你成为欧洲最大的银行，但可能很快将成为全球最大的银行。

Your scale has propelled you to be the largest bank in Europe, but possibly soon the largest bank in the world.

我喜欢说，我们是世界上最大的银行之一，衡量标准是客户数量。

So I like to say that we are one of the largest banks in the world by what matters, which is the number of customers.

2025年，吉姆，我们新增了800万客户，目前客户总数已达1.8亿。

In 2025, Jim, we grew 8,000,000 customers, and we're now at a 180,000,000 customers.

我们的收入实现了增长。

We grew revenues.

我们的成本更低，并在2025年实现了每股17%的收益，资本也增长到了13.5%。

We had lower cost, and we delivered 17% earnings per share in '25, and we grew capital to 13 and a half.

所以，这是非常成功的一年。

So a very successful year.

是的，我们重视客户增长，我们认为拥有大量客户最终是衡量一家优秀企业的重要标准。

And, yes, we care about growing customers, and we believe having a, you know, large number of customers is what ultimately reflects on a on a good business.

这就是为什么我们会增长，因为客户主动选择加入我们。

That's why, you know, we grow because our customers come and join us.

让你增长得更快的一个因素，是收购位于富裕地区的韦伯斯特银行，那里的客户主要在纽约和康涅狄格州。

One of the things that'll make you grow rather a little more quickly is this acquisition of Webster in a very wealthy area of well, the customers are New York and Connecticut.

你们为什么选择这个地区？

What made you choose that area?

这笔交易完成后，是否已经出现了很好的协同效应，能让你赚更多的钱？

And are there great synergies already so that you can start making even more money, once you close that deal?

我想说的是，收购一家好银行并不容易，而韦伯斯特是一家非常优秀的银行。

So the first thing I would say is that it's hard to buy a good bank, and Webster is a very good bank.

因此，这是我们最基本的标准。

So that is a fundamental criteria for us.

其次，他们的业务与我们的业务高度互补。

Second, they have a very, complementary business to us.

我们从事消费银行业务。

We're in consumer banking.

他们从事商业银行业务。

They're in commercial.

因此，合在一起，韦伯斯特和桑坦德将成为东北地区第五大银行，市场占有率为8%。

So together, Webster and Santander will become the fifth largest bank in its footprint, which is the Northeast, and will have an 8% market share.

但更重要的是，到2028年，合并后的实体将实现18.18%的有形权益回报率。

But very importantly, combined, we'll get to 1818% return on tangible equity by '28.

这将使我们成为美国最盈利的银行之一。

That will make us one of the most profitable banks in The United States.

所以告诉我，你们还做了一些我觉得非常令人兴奋的事情。

So tell me, there's something else that you're doing that I think is very exciting.

我不确定这是否会延伸到韦伯斯特，但当你们与年轻人交流时，他们会非常被你们提供4.2%利率这一点吸引。

I'm not not sure it's gonna extend to Webster, but when you speak to young people, they're very much drawn by the fact that you can get 4.2%.

你们是在我们的节目中推出这个项目的。

Now you you introduced that program on our show.

据我所知，这是你能拿到的最高利率。

It is from what I can tell, the highest rate that you can get.

如果你们将桑坦德的利率扩展到韦伯斯特，你们能因此开立大量新账户吗？

Will you be able to open a lot of new accounts in Webster when they see if you do extend that rate, the Santander rate?

你会把它带到那里吗？

Would you take it there?

那是银行的另一个不同部分。

So that is a different, part of the bank.

那是开放银行。

That's that's open bank.

它是一家全国性的数字银行，将继续运营。

It's a national digital bank that will continue.

汽车金融和开放银行覆盖全美。

That's the auto finance and open bank is across The United States.

韦伯斯特和桑坦德的零售银行位于东北部，覆盖的区域——你知道的，就是你非常熟悉的那个区域，面积和英国差不多。

Webster and Santander Retail Bank is in the Northeast, and that covers the area, you know, that you know very well, which is an area as big as The United Kingdom.

所以它们会有不同的策略。

So so they will have different strategies.

Openbank 最终会将服务扩展到所有客户，但请考虑桑坦德银行和韦伯斯特在东北部的零售商业银行，以及遍布全美的 Open Bank 国家业务和我们的汽车金融业务。

Openbank eventually, you know, the services will be extended to all our customers, but think of the retail commercial bank of Santander Bank and Webster in the Northeast and Open Bank National across the whole United States together with our auto business.

人们确实喜欢全国统一的利率。

Well, people do like the national the the national rate.

现在我想谈谈汽车金融。

Now I wanna talk about auto.

我一些从事这个业务的朋友开始担心次级贷款，担心消费者负担过重。

Some of my friends who are in that business are starting to worry about subprime, starting to worry about the consumer being stretched.

在保持贷款发放量高位的同时，你们的信贷状况是否良好？

Are you doing okay when it comes to keeping originations high and not having credit woes?

我们看到美国消费者非常有韧性。

So we see The US consumer very resilient.

是的。

Yes.

你知道，低端市场的情况变得稍微困难了一些，但我们的回收率仍然非常高。

You know, things have gotten a bit more difficult at the at the lower end, but still, we're getting very high recoveries.

所以人们可能需要更长的时间，但最终他们还是会付款，并且全额偿还。

So people might take a bit longer, but they end up, you know, paying and and and being whole.

因此，我会说美国消费者整体上仍然表现良好。

So I would say The US consumer is overall still doing fine.

好的。

Alright.

现在你喜欢把你的

Now you like to shuffle your

至少在另一端是这样。

At least on the other side.

好的。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

在另一侧。

On the on the other side.

对。

Right.

在另一侧。

On other side.

在

On the

另一侧。

other side.

这才是我在意的。

That's what I care about.

你们两个人要重新安排一下。

Now you you two shuffle things.

波兰是一个不错的国家，但你更侧重于英国，并且从波兰转移了一些资源。

Poland was a country country that's good, but you kinda double down on The UK, and you move yourself from some of Poland.

你们如何决定在哪里下大注？

How do you decide where you wanna make your big bets?

所以，你知道，2025年对桑坦德银行来说是相当不错的一年。

So, you know, '25 was a very, very good year for Santander.

我们达成了所有目标。

We met all our targets.

我们把集团层面的净资产收益率提升到了16%以上。

We took our ROT at the group level to over 16%.

对我们来说重要的是，在我们有业务的市场中，要建立强大的网络效应，不仅限于本国，还要延伸到其他桑坦德银行所在的国家。

What matters to us is that in the markets where we have a presence, that we have strong network effects, not just within the country, but with the other Santander countries.

而波兰并没有与桑坦德其他地区的业务形成网络效应。

And Poland didn't have network effects with the rest of the Santander footprint.

你知道，我们以2.2倍账面价值收到了一个不错的报价。

You know, we got a good offer at 2.2 times book value.

我们已将这笔资金重新投资到英国的TSB，我们的股东在那里获得了20%的资本回报率，同时也投资到了美国的Webster，那里的资本回报率也达到了15%。

We have reinvested that in The UK with TSB where our shareholders are getting, you know, 20% return on invested capital, and in The US with Webster where we have also a 15% return on invested capital.

但非常重要的是，美国与拉丁美洲之间有着强大的网络效应。

But very importantly, The US has very strong network effect with Latin America.

吉姆，你很清楚，我们在墨西哥、巴西都有业务，美国与我们的拉丁美洲银行之间的联系正变得越来越紧密。

You know, Jim, very well that we're in Mexico, we're in Brazil, and there's more and more connectivity between The United States and our Latin American banks.

这带来了巨大的差异，也正是为什么我们与全球平台的规模相结合，成为收购韦伯斯特银行的最佳买家。

And that makes a huge difference, and, you know, that is why we were the best possible buyer for Webster together with the global scale of our platforms.

让我问你一个问题。

Well, let me ask you.

考虑到你们拥有1.8亿客户，并且在这么多国家开展业务，全球现状如何？

What does it look like worldwide now given the fact that you have a 180,000,000 customers and you're in so many different countries?

当人们去达沃斯时，他们往往有一种看法，但那都只是零散的轶事。

What is the what is you when people go to Davos, say, well, they kinda have a view and but it's all very anecdotal.

你拥有实证的视角。

You have an empirical view.

从你的角度看，世界整体状况如何？

What is the view from where you sit about how the world is doing?

因此，桑坦德在全球的业务，即欧洲和美洲，整体来看，2026年的前景比2025年更好。

So the Santander world, which is Europe and The Americas, overall looks better in '26 than it did in '25.

当然，存在很多不确定性，比如估值、市场，以及我们熟知的种种因素。

There is a lot of uncertainty, obviously, valuations, markets, all the things we know.

但如果你看看我们预期的基准增长情景、失业率和通胀情况，美国的表现会更好。

But if you look at where we expect in a base case growth, unemployment, inflation, The US looks better.

西班牙的情况至少和去年差不多，甚至更好一些。

Spain looks at least as good more or less as last year.

这两个市场对我们来说都非常重要。

Those are two big markets for us.

巴西和拉丁美洲的增长会略有放缓，但依然保持增长态势。

Brazil will slow down a bit, Latin America, but still with growth.

所以，我想说，这是稳健的增长，算不上出色，但很扎实。

So, you know, I'd say solid growth, not great, but solid growth.

通胀要么保持稳定，要么正在下降，而失业率则维持在较高水平。

Inflation, either stable or coming down, and unemployment holding at quite high levels.

这些正是我们银行界，我认为大多数人也会关注的方面，情况看起来相当不错。

Those are the things that we in the banks, you know, and I think most people would look at, and they look pretty good.

好吧，我想就说到这里，因为我觉得这是一个非常好的收尾。

Well, I wanna leave it on that because I think it's a terrific note to do so.

这是安娜·布坦。

That's Anna Boutin.

她是桑坦德银行的执行主席，她的股票表现远优于我们任何一家银行的表现。

She's the Banco Santander executive chair and what a stock much better than any of the performance of any of our banks.

非常感谢你，安妮。

Thank you so much, Anne.

谢谢你，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

是的。

Yeah.

但即使回到之前。

But even back it.

我们的投资者低估了Take Two Interactive。

Up, our investors underrating Take Two Interactive.

克拉默将联系该公司的首席执行官，了解这只股票是否即将上涨。

Kramer's connecting with the company's CEO to find out if the stock is about to level up.

接下来。

Next.

好的。

Alright.

我们这里有一位老朋友，也是一只优秀的股票。

Here we have an old friend and a great stock too.

上次我们收到了Take Two Interactive Software的财报。

Last time we got results from Take Two Interactive Software.

那是一家大型视频游戏发行商。

That's the big video game publisher.

实际上，这一季度的业绩相当稳健。

Well, the actual quarter was solid.

全年预测非常出色。

The full year forecast is terrific.

他们将在十一月推出《侠盗猎车手》新作。

And they got grand theft auto ships coming out in November.

但该股票今天仍下跌了5%以上，这还是在本周初已经经历惨烈下跌的基础上。

But the stock still lost more than 5% today, that's on top of a brutal decline early this week.

不幸的是，Take Two的财报发布时，正值大家对谷歌的Project Genie项目一片恐慌，这个AI平台似乎能从零开始创建电子游戏。

Unfortunately, take two reported just as everybody's freaking out about Google's project genie, an AI platform that seems like you can create video games out of whole cloth.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我认为这可能是绝佳的买入机会，就在一切好转之前。

I think this may be the last great buying opportunity before okay.

我们先把这个放一放。

Let's save that for a second.

让我们联系一下斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克。

Let's check-in with Strauss Zelnick.

顺便说一下，他是K2互动的董事长兼首席执行官，从未让我们失望过。

He's the chairman and CEO of K2 Interactive, by the way, who has never led us astray.

在长达二十一年的历程中，这非常难得。

That is very difficult in a twenty one year existence.

泽尔尼克先生，欢迎再次做客Betbug。

Mister Zelnick, welcome back to Betbug.

吉姆，很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here, Jim.

好的。

Okay.

所以，斯特劳斯，首先我想聊聊刚才提到的一件事。

So Strauss, first, I wanna just tackle something hit on.

假设我开发了一款非常出色的电子游戏，用的是谷歌的Genie平台，然后发布在YouTube上。

Let's say that I were to develop a really terrific video game, and I did it on Google, the genie, and I put it in YouTube.

我能赚多少钱？

How much money would I make?

你看。

Look.

有一些独立开发者做得非常好。

There are examples of independent developers doing really well.

这很棒，因为创作者内容与专业内容并列存在。

And and that's great because creator content sits aside professional content.

这是一项小生意，但有时确实是一门生意，只是非常有选择性。

It's a small business, but it's a business now and then, but very selectively.

好的。

Okay.

事实上，这非常难做，也很难推广，当然。

The truth is it's really hard to do and really hard to market, of course.

那些才是重要的。

And those are what matter.

告诉我，在剩下的20家电子游戏公司中，你是唯一一家独立公司。

And tell me, of the 20 video game companies that are left, the the you're the only independent left.

我们是，假设EA交易完成，我们将成为最大的公开独立游戏公司。

We're the well, assuming the EA deal closes, we'll be the largest public name, PurePlay.

我

I

换个角度看。

look at it like this.

如果我用过你的系统，而且有个特别棒的作品，我肯定会登门拜访，只为能用上你的发行渠道。

If I were using that and I had a really great one, I'd be knocking down your door in order to be able to get your distribution system.

我们能为产品投入的营销资金，以及我们能承担的风险。

And the marketing dollars that we can put behind a product, and the risk that we can take.

好的。

Okay.

我只是想提一下，因为听到这些的商业人士会说，你知道吗？

I just wanted to put that out there because business people who heard that would say, you know what?

这根本不是Take-Two的终点。

This is really not the end of take two.

而且，如果非要说的话，Take Two 实际上可能会从中受益。

And if anything, take two actually could be a beneficiary.

我的意思是，这才是关键点。

I mean, that's the key point.

关键在于，我们的业务从一开始就利用了机器学习和人工智能。

The key point is that our business has availed itself with machine learning and artificial intelligence since the beginning.

我们的游戏是在计算机上制作的。

We make our games in computers.

新技术对我们来说是好事。

New technology is great for us.

目前，在Take Two的子公司中，我们正在进行数百个AI项目。

We have hundreds of AI projects going on now at take two in our subsidiaries.

这是好事。

This is a good thing.

我们已经在提升效率，并且它已经帮助我们提升了创造力。

We're already driving efficiencies, and it's already helping us with creativity.

好的。

Alright.

但你不能把工具和娱乐内容混为一谈。

But you can't confuse tools with entertainment properties.

它们是不同的东西。

They're different things.

现在我知道了，你知道是谁第一次跟我解释这个吗？

Now I know that, you know who explained that to me first time?

Jensen Huang，当他谈到光线追踪的时候。

Jensen Huang, when he talked about ray tracing.

我说，谁在用它？

I said, who's using it?

他说，真正懂得如何使用的人，只有Take Two。

He said, well, the only people really know how to use is take two.

因为他是游戏玩家，而且他了解你在问什么

And because he's a gamer, and he knows You're asking

很早就开始关注它了。

about it very early on.

是的。

Yes.

现在他是个游戏玩家。

Now he's a gamer.

现在我想谈谈真正重要的事情。

Now I do wanna talk about things that do matter.

好吧？

Okay?

例如，在G链发布之前，移动业务的实力非常惊人。

For instance, before we get the G chain launch, mobile strength, really incredible.

是的。

Yeah.

我们的年同比增长了19%，而且覆盖面非常广。

We're up 19% year over year, and it's really across the board.

我们的经典游戏，比如《墓地大爆炸》，同比增长了43%。

It's our legacy games, like tomb blast, up 43% year over year.

《帝国与谜题》增长11%，《与朋友拼词》增长6%，还有新爆款《匹配工厂》和《色彩块狂欢》。

Empires and Puzzles, 11%, Words With Friends, 6%, and then new hits, Match Factory and Color Block Jam.

在移动领域创造出新的爆款真的很难。

It's really hard to create new hits in mobile.

我们的团队一次又一次地做到了。

Our teams have been able to do that over and over again.

这对我们的公司来说是一次非常成功的收购交易。

It's been a great accretive transaction for us.

但曾经有一段时间，你懊恼不已。

But and there was a time when you were kicking yourself.

你当时在这个品类上没有任何产品，你还告诉我你知道这个品类潜力巨大。

You didn't have anything in the category, and you told me you knew the category was big.

没错。

Right.

这是互动娱乐行业中增长最快的领域。

And it is the fastest growing part of the interactive entertainment business.

好的。

Okay.

现在有NBA 2K，有些东西就是不会过时，对吧？

Now NBA two k, some things just don't run out, do they?

只要你持续做出出色的作品。

If you keep doing great stuff.

作品必须变得越来越好。

The work has to get better and better.

视觉概念工作室，也就是在2K品牌下制作NBA 2K的团队，每年都在不断提升标准。

Visual Concepts, which is the label that makes NBA two k inside the two k label, just sets the bar higher and higher every year.

我们的年同比增长达到了30%。

And we're up 30% year over year.

我们已经售出了800万份，这无疑是北美销量最高的体育游戏。

We've sold in 8,000,000 units, and it is, of course, the biggest selling sports game in North America.

在我们聊到《GTA》之前，告诉我们还有哪些属于你库里的作品，你实际上为此付费了，而且至今仍在赚取大量收入。

Now before we get to to GTA, tell us what else is has a part of the library that you actually, you know, have kind of paid for that is still making a lot of money.

嗯，我们的整个游戏库

Well, our our catalog

每年都能贡献大约35%的净预订收入。

alone generates, I don't know, 35% of our net bookings year in, year out.

这真是一个源源不断的好礼物。

That's the gift that keeps on giving.

没错。

Right.

但2K旗下的作品还包括《无主之地》、刚刚推出的《无主之地4》、《文明7》、《生化奇兵》系列，以及除了WWE 2K、PGA巡回赛和NBA 2K之外的许多其他作品。

But the titles at two k include Borderlands, Borderlands four just came out, Civilization seven came out, the Bioshock franchise, and many others in addition to WWE two k, the PGA Tour title, and of course, NBA two k.

我提到了一些我们的手机游戏热门作品，未来还会有更多。

I I mentioned some of our mobile hits, and there are many more to come.

我们还有《Top 11》以及其他许多优秀作品。

We also have top 11, a lot of other great titles.

即使是Rockstar旗下的品牌，也不只是靠《GTA》。

And even at the rock star labels, it's not just about GTA.

《荒野大镖客》依然是我们收入的重要来源。

Red Dead continues to be a huge contributor to our earnings.

所以我们有全新的核心IP、大量的续作，再加上庞大的游戏库，当然还有在线服务。

So we have frontline new intellectual property, frontline properties that are sequels, a lot of those, and then we have a big catalog, and then of course, live services.

好的。

Alright.

现在让我们聊聊有史以来最伟大的娱乐载体。

Now let's let's talk about the greatest entertainment vehicle of all time.

这确定吗？

Is that definite?

我觉得没错。

I think that's true.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

没有什么能与之相比。

There's nothing that comes near it.

当我看到收益数据时，我第一件事就是去核对日期，因为我知道你们不会在产品不完美之前发布，我想确认这个11月的日期仍然是11月19日。

When the I got the earnings, the first thing I did was go and check the date, because I know that you're not going to release something until it's perfect, and I wanted to be sure that this November date is still November 19.

那你怎么知道呢？

Now how do you know?

你怎么确定它能在那天准备好？

How do you know it's gonna be ready that day?

因为我们实际上每天都会跟踪所有工作的进展，而且我们也宣布了今年夏天会启动营销节点。

Well, because we actually obviously track progress daily of everything that we do, and we also announced that we have marketing beats coming this summer.

在接近发布前，我们不会在营销上花钱。

We don't spend money on marketing until we're pretty close to release.

对于我看来可能是历史上最棒的口碑产品之一，你们真需要花大钱做营销吗？

Do you really need to spend money on marketing on what I think is one of the greatest word word-of-mouth products in history?

我们会的。

We do.

我认为意识和热度是有区别的，我们需要制造这种热度。

I I think there there's a difference between awareness and energy, and we need to create the energy.

我们确实已经有了一定的意识。

We do have the awareness.

期待值非常高。

The anticipation is huge.

比以往任何时候都更大。

It's it's bigger than ever before.

但在我们的行业里，你必须告诉人们即将发生什么，我们的消费者希望知道这会很棒，并且想看到视觉效果是什么样子。

But in our business, you do have to tell people what's coming, and our consumers wanna know that this is gonna be great, and they wanna see what the visuals look like.

这确实是个挑战，因为我们希望产品能被消费者真正地拥有。

It is a challenge because we want the product to be authentically owned by our consumers.

对。

Right.

因此，营销必须非常谨慎。

And so the marketing has to be delicate.

它必须让人感觉这是真实的。

It has to feel like, this is real.

我们不是在卖汉堡包。

Is not we're not selling hamburgers.

我们是在销售这种独特的艺术形式。

We're selling this unique art form.

对。

Right.

现在，最后一个问题是与此密切相关的。

Now, one last question and it's right along those lines.

詹森告诉我，有时你需要升级设备，才能应对你们所创作的精彩内容。

Jensen told me that sometimes you need to upgrade your equipment in order to be able to deal with the great stuff that you're doing.

为了能够制作《GTA》，是否需要进行一次升级？

Will there need to be an upgrade cycle just to be able to do GTA?

我们将在最新的游戏主机上推出《GTA 6》。

Well, we're launching GTA six on the on the newest consoles.

这些主机在市场上已经有一段时间了。

Those consoles have been in market for some time.

所以一些没有这些主机的人可能得购买它们，我认为这可能会刺激主机销量。

So some people who don't have those consoles might have to buy them, and I think we'll probably energize console sales.

但不，这项技术已经上市了。

But, no, the the the technology is in market.

对吧？

Right?

我其实想过建议人们因为这个去购买百思买的产品。

I actually thought about telling people to buy Best Buy because of this.

百思买有其他问题，但没错，我认为这次的升级周期会比Copilot的升级周期好得多。

There's other problems with Best Buy, but, yes, I think there's gonna be upgrade cycle that's much better than, say, the Copilot upgrade cycle.

我再次认为，这个IP充满了巨大的活力。

I I again, I think there's a lot of energy around this property.

当然。

Absolutely.

希望如此。

Fingers crossed.

嗯，得告诉你，很高兴你回来，施特劳斯。

Well, gotta tell you, it's great to have you back, Strauss.

你就是。

You just yeah.

你确实建立了一家了不起的公司。

You you just have built an amazing company.

我知道你会把功劳归于很多人。

I know you'll credit many people.

我本来想说，我很幸运有这样一支出色的团队。

I was gonna say, I'm fortunate I have this amazing team.

业内最顶尖的创意人才，最顶尖的管理人才。

The best creative talent in the business, the best executive talent in the business.

好的。

Okay.

那是斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克。

That's Strauss Zelnick.

他是Take Two Interactive的董事长兼首席执行官。

He's the chairman and CEO of Take Two Interactive.

是的，我认为你有机会收购它。

And, yes, I do think that you're getting a chance to buy it.

实际上，我没买一辆车。

It actually I didn't get with a car.

对。

Yeah.

钱又回来了，大家。

Money's back everybody.

接下来，克拉默接听观众来电，上限无限。

Coming up, Kramer takes your calls, and the sky's the limit.

这是一场快速的闪电轮。

It's a fast fire lightning round.

下一个。

Next.

现在是时候谈谈白色轮了。

It is time to talk to the white round.

这是什么

It's what

说唱课程，著名谈话中提到了再见。

rap on course, famous talk said about bye bye.

所以呢，你知道的，足球。

So so just, you know, soccer.

这并不是我第一步就计划好的行为。

It's not my step first play where you plan this out.

然后闪电轮就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

来自华盛顿的迈克尔。

Michael in Washington.

迈克尔。

Michael.

迈克尔。

Michael.

你好。

Hello.

嘿，是克雷默。

Hey, it's Kramer.

你有什么要说的，朋友？

What do you got my friend?

是的，是克雷默。

Yeah, it's Kramer.

发生什么事了？

What's happening?

是的，我认为最近的黄金抛售阻碍了矿业股的稀有买入机会，这些公司即将发布财报，由于本季度金价大幅上涨，而成本因油价低廉和人工智能生产力提升而下降，它们的利润率、现金流和利润将异常强劲。

Yeah, I believe the recent gold selloff prevents the rare buying opportunity in the miners which reports soon and should see unusually high margins, cash flows, and profits since gold prices are up sharply over the quarter, and costs are down due to cheap oil and AI productivity.

好的。

Okay.

我持有Nico Eagle这家顶级公司，现在正在关注Newmont，它已经离开了。

I own of Nico Eagle the premier firm and I'm now looking at Newmont which left.

你是最棒的。

You're the best.

你是最棒的。

You're the best.

除了金条之外，你还持有其他资产，我觉得你会没问题的。

Own a bullion other than that and I think you'll be fine.

我需要去纽约找彼得。

I need to go to Peter New York.

彼得。

Peter.

你是吉姆吗？

Who you are, Jim?

你是谁？

Who you are?

我不在那里。

I'm not there.

你好吗？

How are you?

我正在等你在eBay上的最新一版书。

I'm waiting for the last new copy of your book from eBay.

哦，你瞧。

Oh, there you go.

我喜欢这个。

I love that.

谢谢。

Thank you.

吉姆，这家制药公司今天的股价是6美元以上。

Jim, this pharmaceutical company is trading at 6 over $6 today.

他们的年收入约为6亿美元，最近净亏损约900万美元。

Their annual revenue is about 600,000,000 and a recent net net loss of about 9,000,000.

当前价格是对他们罕见病管线的折价，还是市场已经反映了对未来表现的预期？

Is the current price a discount on its rare disease pipeline, or has the market already factored in expectations for the future performance?

Io Press Pharmaceuticals, B.

Io Press Pharmaceuticals, B.

C.

C.

R.

R.

S.

S.

不。

No.

不。

No.

就别碰那个了。

Just stay away from that.

我的意思是，这支股票长期以来表现非常糟糕，我不认为它会好转。

I mean, that's it's just been a very bad Stockdome for a very long time and I don't think it's going to improve.

我现在得去找阿拉斯加的皮特了，皮特。

I need to go to Pete now in Alaska Pete.

哦，是的。

Oh yeah.

来自阿拉斯加安克雷奇的吉姆，我的朋友。

Jim from Anchorage Alaska my friend.

你得来这儿钓钓鱼。

You need to get up here and do some fishing.

我完全同意这一点。

I completely agree with that.

我做过。

I did it.

我曾经在那里进行过战斗钓鱼。

I did combat fishing up there once.

那真是太棒了。

It was fantastic.

非常非常放松。

It was very very relaxing.

是的。

Oh yeah.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

追踪器。

Tracker.

好的。

Alright.

那是苏吉·丹·苏吉·丹，我们实际上是为信托持有它的。

That's Suge Dan Suge Dan We actually own it for the trust.

我们卖得太早了。

We sold it too soon.

他是个赚钱能手。

He is a moneymaker.

去买了吧。

Just go buy it.

他就是这么厉害。

That's how good he is.

去买了吧。

Just go buy it.

我超喜欢这家伙。

I love that guy.

我们去找新泽西的约翰吧。

Let's go to John in New Jersey.

约翰。

John.

您好，克拉默先生。

Hello, mister Kramer.

我重视政治和工作。

I appreciate politics and work.

希望能听听您对SkyWest公司的看法。

Would value your opinions on SkyWest Incorporated.

我买联合航空和联邦快递，你就能同时拥有两者。

I buy United and I buy FedEx, and you get them both.

好的。

Okay.

我们去找凯文。

Let's go to Kevin.

哦，我还没完呢，真的没完。

Oh, I'm not I am so not done.

我肯定被开除了。

I am so fired.

我们现在就停止这个吧。

Let's stop that right now.

我们去找马萨诸塞州的凯文。

Let's go to Kevin in Massachusetts.

凯文。

Kevin.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

太棒了。

Booyah.

我真的很喜欢这个节目。

I really enjoy the show.

第一，我想知道你对金融股票代码的看法。

One, I wanted to know your take on financial ticker.

我不想持有。

I don't want to own.

我想持有美国合众银行（Capital One，股票代码COF）和旅行信托。

I want to own Capital One c o f and travel trust.

从二月到2月25日，它已经很好地回调了。

It's pulled back nicely from February to 02/25.

现在我们转向纽约的肯尼。

Now we're going to go to Kenny in New York.

肯尼。

Kenny.

嘿，先生。

Hey Mr.

克拉默。

Kramer.

非常感谢您提出这个问题。

Thank you so much for taking my question.

当然。

You bet.

所以

So

我去年购买了EOS能源企业，一开始很满意，但到现在就不一样了。

I purchased EOS Energy Enterprises last year and was happy with it until now.

那东西怎么了？

What's going on with that stuff?

所以我的意思是，这简直就是那种经典的、充满魔幻思维的、魔幻投资的股票。

So I mean it's just the kind of classic that's a year of magical thinking magical investing stock.

我们不想碰这个，但它正好位于新泽西州的爱迪生市，而爱迪生恰恰就出生在那里。

We don't want to touch that one but it is in Edison New Jersey which is where by the way Edison was born.

这只是一个很好的巧合。

It just happens to be a great coincidence.

女士们、先生们，这就是闪电环节的结束。

And that ladies gentlemen's conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

多年来，科技公司一直占据主导地位，但它们的时代是否即将终结？

Coming up for years, companies of coders have dominated, but could their era be coming to an end?

克拉默将揭示他为何认为现在是该放弃它们的时候。

Kramer's revealing why he thinks it's time to pull the plug on them next.

我从学校毕业时，目标非常简单。

What I got out of school, the goal was pretty simple.

去高盛工作。

Get a job at Goldman Sachs.

我这么做是因为我们抢劫银行的原因——钱在那里。

I did it for the same reason that we sought and rob banks.

钱就在那里。

That's where the money is.

高盛是一个充满卓越成就的自助餐。

Goldman Sachs was a smorgasbord of greatness.

你可以进入股权、交易、证券销售、固定收益、债券市场、市政债券、并购，还有所有企业融资中最顶尖的领域，有无数交易等着你去做。

You could go into equities, trading, security sales, fixed income, the bond market, munis, m and a, and then the mac daddy of all corporate finance with all those deals to be done.

极其赚钱。

Incredibly lucrative.

赚大钱，但不张扬。

Big money without being flashy.

高盛仍然是家了不起的公司，但大约三十年前，巨额财富的重心转向了私募股权。

Goldman Sachs is still an amazing firm, but about thirty years ago, the big money move gravitated to private equity.

在KKR、黑石、卡莱尔，你可以将业绩不佳的公司私有化，加以改善，再以惊人的溢价将其重新上市。

At KKR, Blackstone, Carlisle, you could take underperforming companies private, then fix them up, sell them back to the public in a fantastic markup.

在这些私募股权公司工作并不容易，但如果你能获得职位，天啊，你就能赚到巨额财富。

It wasn't easy to work at these private equity firms, but if you got the job, oh, boy, you could make fortunes.

然后到了世纪之交，大笔资金转向了西部。

Then around the turn of the century, the big money moved west.

只要懂得编程，人们就可以创办自己的公司，而这个行业经常造就亿万富翁。

People could start their own companies if they knew how to code, and this was a business that regularly created billionaires.

最聪明的程序员创建了能够帮助企业全面提升各项业务的公司。

The smartest coders created companies that could help other businesses do everything better.

任何懂得编写代码的人都是极其宝贵的资源。

Anyone who knew how to write code was an incredibly valuable commodity.

程序员们很快学会去接触风险投资家，这些投资人会投入巨额资金，最终将公司上市，套现更大的财富，就像麦当劳那样，卖出数十亿甚至上百亿美元。

The coders quickly learned to meet with venture capitalists who threw fortunes into them, before eventually flipping them to the public for even bigger fortunes like McDonald's, billions and billions sold.

在那个鼎盛时期，这些企业软件公司根本不需要盈利，这正是它们的妙处所在。

The great thing about these enterprise software companies back during the heyday, they didn't have to make money.

他们只需要快速的收入增长。

They just needed rapid revenue growth.

投资者对他们趋之若鹜，程序员们也因此赚取了巨额财富。

Investors couldn't get enough of them, and the coders made vast fortunes.

这是一场盛宴。

It was a bonanza.

以股票形式支付的薪酬是一件好事，除非你是股东。

Stock based compensation is a wonderful thing unless you're a shareholder.

但所有的盛宴终将结束，企业软件的黄金时代似乎已经走到了尽头。

But all bonanzas do come to an end, and the enterprise software bananas seems to have run its course.

这正是当今市场正在发生的事情。

That's what's going on in the market today.

为什么？

Why?

因为人工智能。

Because of artificial intelligence.

有了人工智能，你不再需要程序员，因为这些平台写出的代码比人类还好。

With AI, you don't need programmers because these platforms can write code better than humans.

我本该在第一次Nvidia的黄仁勋让我对机器说话，然后机器输出了我想要的内容——西赞海景、莎士比亚环球剧院、星球大战风暴兵时，就意识到有人要被取代了。

I should have realized that someone was getting displaced the first time Nvidia's Jensen Huang had me speak into a machine, and out came what I wanted, a Seizan Seascape, Shakespeare's Globe Theater, Star Wars Stormtroopers.

幕后并没有什么神秘的程序员。

There were no secret coders behind the curtain.

突然间，那些拥有昂贵软件的程序员似乎不再被需要了。

Suddenly, seems like those coders with their expensive wares won't be needed anymore.

这些家伙再也得不到黄金国了。

No more Golconda for these guys.

上周晚些时候，一个名为Anthropic的早期版本发布了一系列新的人工智能工具，帮助各行业的专业人士。

Late last week, an alpha called Anthropic released a number of new AI tools to help professionals in various industries.

这些工具将帮助企业节省销售、金融、法律、人力资源、IT、市场营销等领域的开支，代价是第三方软件供应商的利益受损。

They are going to save businesses forge sales, finance, legal, HR, IT, marketing, all at the expense of third party software vendors.

现在还处于早期阶段，但我认为Anthropic能找到各种方式，让企业通过淘汰昂贵的程序员来节省开支。

It's still early days, but I think Anthropic can find all sorts of ways for businesses to save money by getting rid of expensive coders.

这可能是一场编码界的末日。

It could be a coding apocalypse.

这就是为什么所有企业软件股票都在回归现实。

And that's why all the enterprise software stocks are coming back to earth.

当你查看iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF时，该基金中盈利公司的中位数市盈率已从2024年的28.4倍降至如今的不到21倍。

When you look at the iShares expanded tech software sector ETF, the median price to earnings multiple for the profitable companies in this thing has shrunk from 28.4 times earnings at the 2024 to less than 21 times earnings today.

这是市盈率压缩的新速度纪录。

That's a new land speed record for multiple compression.

因为投资者认为，Anthropic或OpenAI只是时间问题，迟早会摧毁整个行业，所以这些股价才在下跌。

It's because investors think it's just a matter of time before an anthropic or an open AI crushes the entire industry that these prices are coming down.

现在我这里做了简化。

Now I am simplifying here.

还有很多软件公司足够独特，能够避免这种命运。

There are plenty of software companies that are unique enough to avoid this fate.

其中许多公司自己使用AI工具反而会受益，但赚钱的丰厚程度将不再如前。

Many of them will benefit from using AI tools themselves, but the money will no longer be as bountiful.

首次公开募股的公司，热度可能还没退。

The IPOs, they could be still warm.

大笔资金正在从企业软件领域撤离。

The big money is moving on from enterprise software.

目前在股市中，这部分资金部分流向了那些如今无需再花大价钱购买软件和编码服务的公司。

Right now in the stock market, that cash has been flowing in part to companies that should now be able to save by not spending on expensive software and coding.

也许他们会使用人工智能。

Maybe they will use AI.

这场革命正在你眼前发生。

And this revolution is happening right in front of your eyes.

做好准备。

Be ready.

企业软件股票可能会反弹。

The enterprise software stocks can bounce.

它们很可能反弹，但或许再也无法回到过去的高估值了，因为它们当初就不该涨到那么高。

They will bounce probably, but they may never be worth what they once were because maybe they never should have been trading that high to begin with.

我喜欢说，市场上总会有更多的卖家。

I like to say there's always more market seller.

我向你保证，我会为你或你的资金找到它。

Promise I'll find it just for you or your man money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Kramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克莱默个人的观点，不代表CNBC或其母公司或附属公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体先前发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

您不应将克莱默表达的任何观点视为特定的投资诱导或遵循特定策略的建议，而仅应将其视为他的个人观点。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其附属公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖于此。

Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以以许多不同的形式呈现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，

Life is short, and

要想成就大事，就得有远大的志向。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

新集数每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.