吉姆·克莱默的疯狂金钱节目 3/11/26

在第一球投出之前，CNBC体育的迈克尔·奥扎尼安深入分析了最新数据。

Before the first pitch, CNBC Sports' Michael Ozanian goes deep on the latest numbers.

我们的工资总额将远超3亿美元。

We're gonna have payrolls well over $300,000,000.

周五在CNBC和CNBC Plus的《早间播报》节目中公布了官方MLB球队估值。

Official MLB team valuations revealed Friday in Squawk Box on CNBC and CNBC Plus.

嘿，我是克莱默。

Hey, I'm Cramer.

欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。

Welcome to Mad Money.

欢迎来到《克莱默卡》。

Welcome to Cramerica.

所有朋友们，我只是想在这里帮你们赚点钱。

All you, my friends, I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money here.

我的工作不仅是娱乐，还要教育和传授知识。

My job is not just to entertain, but also to educate, to teach.

请拨打180743联系我。

Call me at 180743.

在推特上关注我：Jim Cramer。

Tweet me at Jim Cramer.

无论我们做什么，这场战争都无法被隔离。

The war cannot be ring fenced no matter what we do.

我不想粉饰它。

I don't wanna sugarcoat it.

我们无法回避这个问题。

We can't avoid this issue.

人们试图淡化战争的影响，或者试图透过它、越过它，直到战争结束。

People are trying to dismiss the impact of the war, or they're trying to see through it, see past it until it's over.

他们说，由于全球战略石油储备的释放，包括我们今晚的释放，目前多出了二十天的石油供应。

They're saying that we've got twenty days of excess oil, thanks to the release of global strategic petroleum reserves, including ours as of this evening.

等到这些储备耗尽时，战争可能就结束了，所以你最好现在就开始买入股票，因为你必须在特朗普总统把一切都搞定之前进场。

And by the time they run out, well, the war will be over, so you better start buying stocks right now because you gotta be in before president Trump wraps everything up.

也许这就是为什么尽管油价今天上涨了5%，全年上涨了50%，而道指仅下跌了289点，我们却没有跌得更多。

Now maybe that's why we aren't down more despite oil being up 5% today and 50% for the year with the Dow sinking only 289 points.

标普下跌0.8%。

S and P declining point o 8%.

纳斯达克实际上微涨了0.8%。

Nasdaq actually inching up point o 8%.

我们仍然非常接近历史高点。

We are still very close to our highs.

为什么我们不能把伊朗隔离起来，转而采纳好的想法呢？

Why can't we cordon off Iran and just embrace good ideas?

很简单。

Simple.

如果没有切实的退出策略，我们可能会耗尽战略储备中二十天的石油用量，却依然陷入与伊朗的非对称对峙状态。

Without a real exit strategy, we could blow through twenty days worth of oil from our strategic reserves and still be stuck in an asymmetrical standoff with the Iranians.

我不得不承认，昨天国防部长赫克西斯谈到要派遣‘最多的战斗机、最多的轰炸机、最多的打击行动’时，我有点措手不及。

I have to admit to being a little thrown by secretary of war Hexis yesterday when he talked about sending over, quote, the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, end quote.

冒着有点讲历史课的风险，哈克斯的言辞模仿了尼克松总统在1972年底的言论，当时他发动了被称为‘线背行动二’的轰炸，持续十一天，以纯粹的恐惧迫使顽固的北越人坐到和平谈判桌前。

At the risk of embarking on a bit of a history lesson, Hax's language mimicked president Nixon's rhetoric when at the end of 1972, he unleashed what was known as operation linebacker two, the eleven days of bombing that brought the recalcitrant North Vietnamese to the peace table out of pure fear that we would never stop.

这次行动是自二战以来规模最大的重型轰炸机打击。

That operation was the largest strike of heavy bombers since World War two.

我们出动了200架B-52轰炸机，执行了700架次任务。

We sent 200 b 50 twos, 700 sorties.

我们摧毁了军事设施，还包括河内和海防的铁路编组站、发电厂和通信中心。

We knocked out military installations, but also rail yards, power plants, communications centers, in both the capital Hanoi and Hai Phong.

圣诞节期间有24小时的停火。

There was a twenty four hour break for Christmas.

北越人担心轰炸永远不会停止。

The North Vietnamese feared that the bombing would never end.

我认为当时他们觉得我们要么太过残忍，要么太过疯狂，无法应对。

I think at that point, they thought that we were either too ruthless or too crazy to reckon with.

因此，他们同意启动和平进程。

So they agreed to start the peace process.

太惊人了。

Amazing.

是的。

Yes.

他们最终都取得了成功，因为美国公众在几年后对我们的介入感到厌倦。

They all really prevailed because the American public got tired of our involvement years later.

但单就迫使谈判而言，尼克松的策略是有效的。

But purely in terms of forcing negotiation, Nixon's strategy worked.

美国方面却没有采取后续行动。

There was just no follow through in the American side.

在昨天的大肆宣传之后，我以为哈克斯正在发起类似的行动，但我根本没看到或听到关于最先进战斗机、最重型轰炸机和最多空袭造成的任何破坏。

After yesterday's big talk, I thought hexeth was starting a similar campaign, but I didn't even see or hear about the damage from the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes.

你有吗？

Did you?

我感觉，由基辛格设计的越南策略虽然言辞相似，却并未被启用。

I sense that the Vietnam gamut, which is designed, by the way, by Henry Kissinger, is not in play despite the very similar rhetoric.

在某些方面，我感到惊讶的是特朗普没有采取类似基辛格的轰炸行动。

In some ways, I'm surprised that Trump isn't doing something similar to Kissinger's bombing campaign.

我们的政府在这里有一个目标，而这个目标并不是无条件投降。

Our government has a goal here, and that goal isn't really unconditional surrender.

我们已经严重削弱了伊朗绝大多数的军事力量。

We've already degraded the vast majority of Iran's military apparatus.

如今的目标是达成停火，以便我们能够重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，防止石油供应中断对全球经济造成毁灭性打击。

The goal now is to gain a cease fire so that we can reopen the Strait Of Rimuths and prevent an oil shop from devastating the global economy.

在这一点上，这确实是一个重大胜利。

At this point, that is a real win.

特朗普总统可以宣称，他为了达成这一目标而重创了伊朗。

President Trump could claim that he decimated Iran in order to get it.

顺便说一句，只要他能说服伊朗方面配合，我们所有人就能回归正常。

And by the way, we would all go back to normal assuming he can convince the Iranians to get on board.

但如果没有基辛格那种残酷的策略，我看不出有什么退出途径。

But short of the brutal Kissinger game plan, I don't see an off ramp.

至少这次，地面没有驻军。

At least this time, there are no boots on the ground.

话又说回来，这正是责任不在我们这边的原因。

Then again, that's why the ball is not in our court.

要么伊朗人通过中间人，也许是中间商，向我们提出能让特朗普宣称胜利的条件，要么他们坚持下去，油价就会持续高企。

Either the Iranians come to us through an intermediate, perhaps cutter, and offer terms that let Trump declare victory, or they hang on and the price of oil stays sky high.

第一种情况会让股市飙升。

The first sends them the stock market soaring.

第二种情况，这应该是你最担心的，也是一个强大的负面因素，肯定会令我们的所有股票下跌。

The second, it should be your biggest concern, and it's a powerful negative that will certainly send all our stocks lower.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

听我说，我非常希望相信总统的话，赌这场战争正在结束。

Look, I desperately want to take the president at his word and bet that the war's winding down.

也许他明天就宣布战争结束，说有一个潜在的幕后渠道协议正在酝酿，伊朗同意不干扰海峡，并在违反潜在停火协议时采取‘操作员长线后卫三’的措施。

Maybe he just declares the war's over tomorrow by talking about how there's a possible back channel agreement in the works where the Iranians agree not to mess with the straight and will go operation operator long linebacker three if they violate a potential truce.

但我们并不是唯一有发言权的人。

But we're not the only ones who have a say in this.

伊朗必须允许船只通过海峡，否则这一切都毫无意义。

Iran has to let the ships pass through the strait or else meaningless.

他们真的值得信任吗？

Can they really be trusted?

这就是我不认为围栏策略有效的理由，尽管如果特朗普做出这样的声明，股市可能一天内就飙升至历史新高。

That's why I don't think the ring fence works even though the stock market would rip to an all time high in a day if Trump made such a declaration.

如果没有理由相信战争即将结束，那么没有任何力量能阻止油价最终飙升至120美元甚至更高。

Without some reason to believe that the war's ending, there's nothing that can stop oil from eventually soaring to $120 and beyond.

这将打破任何围栏策略。

That will bust any ring fence.

所有看涨押注都将失效。

All bullish bets would be off.

标普500期货的抛售将如此剧烈，以至于即使埃克森和雪佛龙这类股票也会被重创，仅仅因为它们属于该指数。

The selling in the S and P 500 futures would be so outrageous that even the stocks of Exxon and Chevron would get crushed simply because they're part of the index.

不过，我会这么做。

I will do this, though.

如果油价稳定下来，伊朗表现出愿意停止对导弹和海上交通施加影响的迹象，我可以告诉你哪些主题值得买入。

I'll tell you what themes can be bought if oil stabilizes and Iran shows signs of willingness to stop lobbying projectiles and naval traffic.

首先，你必须看好数据中心主题。

First, you have to like the data center theme.

战争目前掩盖了这一点，但就在昨晚，数据中心领域的领军企业甲骨文发布了极其出色的业绩数据，证明其扩建进展比任何人预期的都要好，这正是对该主题实力的最佳验证。

The war is obscuring it right now, but we just got the best verification of this theme strength when Oracle, the data center champ, last night reported fantastic set of numbers that indicated its build out is going better than anyone thought.

它不需要 aggressively 筹集更多资金。

It doesn't need to aggressively raise more money.

它也不需要裁撤 Cerner 的医疗记录部门。

It doesn't need to fire sales Cerner's medical records division.

我对他们一切进展得如此顺利感到震惊。

I was stunned by how smoothly everything's going for them.

稍后节目中我会更详细地分析这季令人惊叹的甲骨文业绩，因为它实在太重要了，不容忽视。

More of this remarkable Oracle quarter later in the show because it's just too important to ignore.

甲骨文的惊人业绩与下周的GTC盛会相呼应，这是英伟达每年举办的AI盛会，我们将会参加。

Oracle's fabulous fortune dovetails with next week's GTC event, the annual AI Fest run by NVIDIA, which we're going to.

它继续投资于能够帮助建设更多数据中心的公司。

It it it continues to invest in companies that can help put up more data centers.

今天，英伟达宣布向Nebius投资20亿美元。

Today, NVIDIA announced a $2,000,000,000 invest in Nebius.

这是一家AI云公司。

That's an AI cloud company.

不过，这一主题只有在战争结束之后才能真正显现，但现在可以被大幅压低。

That said this theme can't really shine until the war is over, but it can be brought all the way down.

第二个主题是内存短缺。

Second theme, the memory shortage.

我一直以为这会结束，但本周惠普企业确认，这种情况将持续比人们预期久得多。

I keep thinking this has got to end, but we got confirmation this week from HP Enterprise that it's gonna go on for much longer than people think.

然而，我无法推荐这些内存股票，即使是我非常看好的那些。

However, I can't recommend these memory stocks, even the ones I really like.

但西部数据，价格太高了。

But Western Digital, they're just too much, too high.

西部数据、希捷、桑德斯和美光，我们曾经买入，但因为油价大跌而大幅下跌。

Western Digital, Seagate, Sandus, and Micron, we bought, one a big move down because of oil.

如果油价涨到120美元，这四只股票你就得赶紧入手。

If we see the $120 oil, those are the four stocks you gotta reach for.

或者你可以选择半导体设备制造商，风险稍低一些，比如拉姆研究和科磊。

Or you can go with the semiconductor capital equipment makers, little less risky, Lam Research and KLA.

哦，你也可以选应用材料公司。

The oh, you can do AMAT too, apart materials.

内存短缺最终会把大量业务推向这些公司。

The memory shortage will ultimately drive lots of businesses their way.

不过，这些公司要成为真正的赢家，还得等到战争结束、价格上涨告一段落。

Again, though, none of these will be real winners until the war ends and the climb runs its course.

第三个主题是降级消费。

Third theme is the trade downers.

有很多人正受到新一轮由油价冲击引发的通货膨胀的伤害。

There are plenty of people who are being hurt by the new bout of oil shock induced inflation.

今天早上我们看到了一个温和的CPI数据，但那是我们在袭击伊朗之前的数据，因此完全不具参考性。

We had a tame CPI number this morning, but it's it's from before we attacked Iran, so it doesn't count at all.

真正重要的是，经济拮据的家庭正在转向百思买、罗斯百货以及TGX旗下的家得宝、马歇尔和TGX Max门店。

What does count is that the financially challenged families are moving down to Burlington, Ross Stores, and TGX with its HomeGoods, Marshall, and TGX Max divisions.

更多TGX Max，抱歉。

The more TGX Max, I'm sorry.

更敢于冒险的人可以购买 Dollar Tree 或 Dollar General，后者明天将公布财报。

The more adventuresome can buy Dollar Tree or Dollar General, the latter of which reports tomorrow.

顺便说一句，还有Ulta Beauty，这家化妆品零售商明天晚上也将发布财报。

By the way, like Ulta Beauty too, the cosmetics retail that reports tomorrow night.

我不喜欢把枪顶在自己头上，但你应该现在买一些，等看到季度报告后再买更多。

I don't like putting a gun in my head though, but you should buy some of these here and then buy some more after you see the quarter.

最后，我现在正式建议你买入Five Below，这家特立独行的特色零售商似乎能吸引所有经济阶层，但尤其迎合那些不愿为娱乐花大价钱的家庭。

Finally, you have my blessing right now to buy Five Below, the eccentric and collective specialty retailer that seems to unite all economic groups, but it caters to the families who don't wanna pay an arm and leg for some fun.

哦，我希望我能有更多主题。

Oh, I wish I had more themes.

但这些是我所知道的、唯一能在油价飙升并重创股市后买入的标的。

But these are the only ones I know that can be bought after a run-in oil that devastates the stock market.

即使石油对我们的经济影响已远不如从前，这也不足以使其变得无足轻重。

Even as oil is certainly less of a factor to our economy than it used to be, that's not enough to minimize it.

简而言之。

Here's the bottom line.

如果特朗普效仿基辛格，采取行动推动伊朗走向谈判，那么我们或许会比你想象的更快地拥抱这三个主题。

If Trump channels Kissinger and does something to push Iran towards negotiations, well, we could embrace these three themes sooner than you think.

当然，为达成这一目标所付出的代价可能太过高昂。

Of course, the price to be paid to get there may be way too much.

我记得1972年时我曾这么想，但那场豪赌成功了。

I know I thought it was in 1972, but the gambit worked.

我想，它或许能再次奏效。

It could, I imagine, work once again.

请连线来自佐治亚州的詹姆斯。

Let's go to James in Georgia, please.

詹姆斯。

James.

克拉默先生，这是我的第一次来电。

Mister Cramer, first time caller.

谢谢您写了这本书。

Thank you for writing the book.

哦，你真是个好人。

Oh, you're a good man.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我该怎么帮您？

How can I help you?

是的。

Yes.

我去年十月买了些礼来公司的股票，赚了20%，把家里的钱取了出来，又重新投了一些进去，现在这笔投资就搁在那儿，我担心它要么会大跌，要么会暴涨。

I purchased some shares of Eli Lilly back in October, made 20%, took the house's money, put some back in, and now it's sitting up on a shelf, and I'm afraid the knife's gonna drop or it's gonna skyrocket.

你有什么看法？

What are your thoughts?

我非常看好礼来公司。

I like Eli Lilly very much.

听好了。

Look.

我从不介意任何人获利了结。

I always I never mind anybody takes profit.

获利了结总是很好的。

It's always great to take a profit.

但我们正在为教堂信托基金持有它。

But we're holding on for the chapel trust.

我们认为礼来公司是我们最喜爱的股票之一。

We think that Eli Lilly is one of our favorite stocks.

我们不会退让。

We're not budging.

如果真的下跌了，我们反而会加仓。

We've gotten more if it really got hit.

谢谢你的来电。

Let's and thank you for the call.

我们接下来连线加州的罗伯特。

Let's go to Robert in California.

罗伯特。

Robert.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我是罗伯特，来自美丽的旧金山。

Rob here calling from beautiful San Francisco.

希望很快能见到你。

Hope to see you soon.

怎么回事？

What's going on?

嘿。

Hey.

我是俱乐部的会员。

So I'm a club member.

我是第一次打电话进来。

I'm a first time caller.

和很多人一样，我是长期听众。

And like so many others, I'm a longtime listener.

吉姆，我最近退休了。

Jim, so I recently retired.

我以前的副总裁经常对我们说：了解你的员工。

My former vice president often said to us, k y p, know your people.

吉姆，你了解你的员工，你在与这些首席执行官交谈时展现出的真诚真的令人钦佩。

Jim, you know your people and the authenticity that you exhibit when speaking to all of these CEOs is really incredible.

这是你的超能力，也正是让我们所有人不断回来的原因。

And it's your superpower, and it's what makes us keep keep us all coming back for more.

所以我想先向你表示感谢。

So I just wanted to say thank you to start up.

哦，你太客气了。

Oh, you're very kind.

我确实在外面尽我所能为你努力工作。

I do I am out there working as much as hard as I can for you.

那我现在能怎么帮到你呢？

So how can I help you now?

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

所以，吉姆，我打电话想谈的这个想法让我想起了小学时玩跷跷板的情景。

So, Jim, the thought I'm calling about reminds me of being an elementary school and writing a seesaw.

有一天它在上面，第二天就在下面；或者一个季度在上，下一个季度就在下。

One day it's up and the next day it's down or one quarter it's up and next quarter it's down.

但众所周知，秋千玩久了就会开始让人不舒服。

But the seesaw, as we know, is only fun for so long before it starts to hurt.

所以，吉姆，下个月就要公布财报了，关于Meta，你有什么关键信息吗？

So, Jim, with the earnings coming up next month, what's the four one one with Meta?

好的。

Okay.

我认为Meta最终可能会采用一种有限的方形区块模式，就像多西那种情况，他说：‘你知道吗？’

I think Meta could ultimately embrace a limited style block that's square, that's Dorsey situation where he says, you know what?

我们要全面转向人工智能。

We're gonna go all AI.

我们不需要这么多人了，我们要为股东创造巨额财富。

We don't need all the people we have, and we are gonna make fortunes for shareholders.

我认为这可能只是我的推测，但我感觉这正是马克·扎克伯格的想法。

I think that could not it's my own conjecture, but I think that's where Mark Zuckerberg's head might be.

我们连线一下俄亥俄州的泰勒。

Let's go to Tyler in Ohio.

泰勒。

Tyler.

太棒了。

Booyah.

吉姆，我一直都是这个节目的粉丝。

Jim, been a longtime fan of the show.

我最近刚读完你的书。

Just finished your book here recently.

当然。

Absolutely.

非常感谢。

Thanks a lot.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

让人们理解股票以及它们的含义。

People to understand stocks and what they mean.

这就是重点。

That's what it's about.

不是揭秘，而是指南。

Not a tell all, but a how to.

那么我们开始工作吧。

So let's go to work.

当然。

Absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

我想听听你对维多利亚的秘密的看法。

I wanted to get your opinion on Victoria's Secret.

一年多前，他们任命了新的首席执行官和首席财务官。

A little over a year ago, they got a new CEO and CFO.

在过去十二个月里，他们的股价几乎翻了三倍。

In the last twelve months, their stock has nearly tripled.

第四季度，他们公布了出色的收益，但上周略有回调。

Q four, they posted great earnings, but had a little bit of a pullback this past week.

他们目前的市盈率约为21倍。

Their multiple is currently around 21.

所以我想听听你的看法，现在是不是买入的好时机。

So just wanted to get your opinion if it's a good time to buy.

另外，展望2026年剩余时间，你还认为这只股票会有持续动力吗？

And then looking into rest of 2026, do you still see momentum for this stock?

我觉得可能会。

I I think it could.

你知道，他们其实对股价下跌感到意外，因为他们在本季度表现相当不错。

You know, they were actually, I think, surprised that the stock was down because they they did pretty good job for the quarter.

非常感谢你抽出时间。

Thank you very much for the time words.

现在看。

Now look.

即使石油在经济中的作用已不如从前，这也不足以使其变得无关紧要。

Even as oil is less of a factor or economy than it used to be, that's not enough to minimize it.

它仍然是焦点所在。

It's still front and center.

即使我们表现良好，我们仍需为未来的更多波动做好准备，我刚刚已经给了你一个计划。

We have to prepare for some more volatility ahead even as we do well, I just gave you a plan.

我今晚赚钱了。

I made money tonight.

投资者最近一直担心甲骨文及其与数据中心主题的关联，但西兰德斯的季度电话会议是否消除了这些担忧？

Investors have been worried about Oracle and its ties to the data center theme lately, but did, Westlands quarter call those fears?

我正在查看这份报告。

I'm taking a look at the report.

然后你提到了一个低调的强势布局。

Then you called in about an under the radar power play.

我来跟你分享我对它最新下跌走势的看法，以及现在是否该入场。

I'm giving you my take on its latest move lower and whether it's time to get in.

而且这一直对消费者相当不友好。

And and it take this been pretty darn hostile to consumers.

没错。

Absolutely.

接下来我要告诉你些什么呢？

What's in store for me to tell?

我将在与这家玩具制造商的首席执行官会面时弄清楚。

I'm finding out when I sit down with the toy maker CEO.

请继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

不要错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一分钟。

Don't miss a second of Mad Money.

在X上关注吉姆·克莱默。

Follow at Jim Cramer on X.

有问题吗？

Have a question?

给克雷默发推文。

Tweet Cramer.

标签 mad mentions。

Hashtag mad mentions.

给 Jim 发邮件至 madmoney@CNBC.com，或拨打 180743 联系我们。

Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.

错过了什么吗？

Missed something?

前往 madmoney.cnbc.com。

Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

在开球前，CNBC 体育的迈克尔·奥扎尼安将深入分析最新数据。

Before the first pitch, CNBC Sports' Michael Ozanian goes deep on the latest numbers.

我们的工资总额将超过三亿美元。

We're gonna have payrolls well over $300,000,000.

周五在CNBC和CNBC Plus的《早间秀》节目中公布了官方MLB球队估值。

Official MLB team valuations revealed Friday in Squawk Box on CNBC and CNBC Plus.

昨晚，甲骨文发布了出色的季度财报，即使市场整体下跌，其股价仍上涨了9%，这真是一个令人欣喜的意外。

So last night, we got this tremendous quarter from Oracle that allowed the stock to pop 9% today even as the market rolled over, and that was a very pleasant surprise.

记得吗？很多人之前一直对甲骨文感到担忧。

Remember, lot of people have been worried about Oracle.

这家曾经的企业软件公司，在六个月前因报告了订单量大幅增长而将AI数据中心热潮推至顶峰，主要得益于ChatGPT背后的快速成长公司OpenAI。

This former enterprise software place, the company that sent the AI data center complex into the stratosphere six months ago, when it reported a massive jump in bookings, mainly thanks to OpenAI, the fast growing company behind ChatGPT.

但几周后，甲骨文却成为这些股票的高点，因为投资者开始担心他们究竟从哪里筹钱来建造这些满载服务器的仓库。

Now a few weeks later though, Oracle caused the peak in these stocks as investors started worrying about where the heck they'd find the money to build all these warehouses full of servers.

这些设备非常昂贵。

They're expensive.

这些担忧其实从未真正消失。

Those concerns have never really gone away.

甲骨文的股价在九月达到345美元的高点。

Oracle peaked at $345 in September.

即使今天有所反弹，股价也仅为163美元，仍较高点下跌超过50%。

And even if for today's rebound, it's only at a $163, still down more than 50% from its highs.

但股价只是故事的一部分。

And the stock only tells part of the story.

当甲骨文开始发债为其数据中心建设融资时，投资者开始担忧该公司信用质量。

When Oracle started issuing debt to pay for its data center build out, investors started being concerned about the quality of the company's credit.

甲骨文债务的信用违约互换价格自九月以来几乎翻了四倍，这并非没有原因。

There's a reason why credit default swaps on Oracle's debt have nearly quadrupled in price from September.

这些本质上是债券持有人的保险工具。

These are basically insurance policies for bondholders.

哦，更糟糕的是，甲骨文去年十二月的财报未能达标。

Oh, it didn't help that when Oracle last reported in December, the results came up short.

收入未达预期，利润率令人失望，对未来三个月的指引也偏软。

A revenue missed with disappointing margins, soft guidance for the following three months.

因此，这次许多人早已做好了失望的准备。

That's why this time, many people were bracing themselves for disappointment.

相反，甲骨文的表现极为出色。

Instead, Oracle shot the lights out.

他们不仅实现了显著的收入超预期，营收增长达22%，而且除最小的硬件部门外，所有业务部门的销售额均优于预期。

Not only did they deliver a sizable top line beat with 22% revenue growth, but every division posted better than expected sales except for hardware, which is their smallest unit.

与上一季度形成鲜明对比的是，甲骨文的运营利润率高于预期，表明其人工智能业务可能比悲观者所认为的更盈利。

In a nice contrast with the previous quarter, Oracle's operating margin came in higher than expected, suggesting that their AI business may be more profitable than the pessimist thought.

至于收益，他们每股盈利了1.79美元。

In terms of earnings, well, they earned a dollar 79 per share.

分析师原本只预期每股盈利1.70美元。

Analysts were only looking for a buck 70.

这相当于同比增长21%。

That's 21% earnings growth year over year.

相当不错。

Not too shabby.

当然，这里的關鍵指標是甲骨文的剩餘績效義務。

Of course, the key metric here is Oracle's remaining performance obligation.

你可能已经看到过这个指标，称为RPO，它基本上代表了订单量。

You might have seen that as RPO, which basically represents bookings.

这次，剩余履约义务达到5530亿美元，同比增长325%，或许更重要的是，环比上一季度增长了6%。

This time, the remaining performance obligation was $553,000,000,000, up 325% year over year, and perhaps more important, up six percent versus the previous quarter.

说实话，这其实是个轻微的失望，但似乎没人在意。

That was actually a very mild disappointment, believe it or not, but nobody seemed to care.

坦率地说，人们并不担心甲骨文的订单量。

Frankly, people aren't concerned about Oracle's bookings.

他们更关心的是，公司为了实现这些业务需要投入多少资金，因为正如我所说，建设数据中心非常昂贵。

They're concerned about how much money the company will have to pay to make all this business happen, because building data centers, as I said, very expensive.

那么，本季度的业绩指引如何呢？

How about their guidance for the current quarter?

甲骨文表示，预计本季度收入增长19%至21%，基本符合或略高于预期。

Oracle said to expect 19 to 21% revenue growth this quarter, basically in line or a little bit above expectations.

管理层对云收入增长的指引也符合预期。

Management's guidance for cloud revenue growth was in line too.

最后，甲骨文表示其每股收益可达1.96至2美元。

Finally, Oracle says it can earn a dollar 96 to $2 per share.

嘿，华尔街原本只预期为1.94美元。

Hey, Wall Street was only looking for a buck 94.

这可是不错的上调。

That's a nice raise.

指引相当稳健。

Guide is solid.

同时，投资者对管理层在电话会议中的表态表示认可。

At the same time, buyers liked what management had to say on a conference call.

整体情绪非常乐观。

It was really upbeat.

就像我之前提到的，人们一直担心甲骨文为了兑现给客户的数据中心建设承诺，可能需要借入多少资金。

Like I mentioned before, people have been worried about how much money Oracle might need to borrow in order to build all those data centers that it's promised to its customers.

当公司在2月1日宣布其450亿至500亿美元的债务和股权再融资计划时，股价曾陷入持续数日的下跌。

When the company announced its debt and equity refinancing plan to raise 45 to $50,000,000,000 back on February 1, that sent the stock into a multi day tailspin.

昨晚，我们得到了关于该再融资计划的最新消息。

Last night, we got an update on that refinancing plan.

在2月1日宣布后的几天内，甲骨文通过投资级债券和强制性可转换优先股筹集了300亿美元。

Within days of the February 1 announcement, Oracle raised $30,000,000,000 through a combination of investment grade bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock.

显然，人们对此非常热衷。

Apparently, people lap this up.

虽然甲骨文尚未开始准备发售普通股，但至少该计划的债务部分进行得非常顺利。

While Oracle hasn't started getting ready to sell any common stock, At least the debt portion of the plan went very well.

在未来至少十个月里，我们不必担心该公司为建设AI数据中心而进一步增加债务。

For at least the next ten months, we won't have to worry about the company piling on more debt to pay for its AI data center build out.

这是一项巨大的胜利，因为悲观者此前一直在私下嘀咕。

That's a very big win as the pessimists were whispering.

他们担心建设会破坏公司的资产负债表。

They could wreck the balance sheet with the build out.

现在看来，这种判断相当愚蠢。

That's now looking like a pretty foolish judgment.

嘿，说到未完成订单，甲骨文提到，他们剩余履约义务或订单增长的大部分都与大型AI合同有关，甲骨文预计无需为这些合同筹集额外资金，因为大部分设备要么由客户预付款资助，以便甲骨文采购GPU，要么由客户自行购买GPU并提供给甲骨文。

Hey, speaking of the backlog, Oracle mentioned that their most of the increase in their remaining forms obligation or bookings was, quote, related to large scale AI contracts where Oracle does not expect to have to raise any incremental funds to support these contracts, as most of the equipment is either funded upfront via customer prepayments so Oracle can purchase the GPUs or the customer buys the GPUs and supplies them to Oracle, end quote.

事实上，甲骨文之前已经暗示过类似的情况。

In fact, Oracle had hinted something like this.

我真的很喜欢这种灵活性，去年十二月财报时，他们曾提到‘其他融资选择’。

I really like the flexibility of it when it last reported in December, talking about, quote, other financing options, end quote.

这对他们的数据中心非常有创意，包括允许客户自带芯片的方案。

It's very creative for its data centers, including plans where customers might bring their own chips.

甲骨文非常喜欢做这类事情。

Oracle loves to do that stuff.

对吧？

Right?

我猜是的。

I bet hey.

梅利奥的应对方式一直很得当。

Melio's handle has been righteous.

他将这些数据中心建设的轻资本支出策略称为CapEx轻模式。

He dubbed these CapEx light strategies for the data center build out.

但当时，这些想法看起来有些不成熟，因此Oracle甚至没有因此获得认可；而现在，公司更明确地表示拥有这一计划，这缓解了外界对其基础设施支出的担忧。

But at the time, those ideas seemed a little half baked, so Oracle didn't even get credit for Now with the company saying more explicitly that it has this plan, it helped ease concerns about the company's infrastructure spending.

此外，所有这些都发生在OpenAI——Oracle最大的客户——取得重大进展之后，后者已成长为更加稳定的合作伙伴。

Plus all of this comes on the heels of some major developments for OpenAI, Oracle's biggest customer that had made it into a much more stable business partner.

据报道，OpenAI已缩减了部分支出计划，告诉投资者其目标是在2030年前将基础设施支出控制在6000亿美元。

OpenAI has reportedly dialed back some of its spending plans, telling investors that it was targeting 600,000,000,000 in infrastructure spending by 2030.

这仍然是一个庞大的数字，但相比CEO山姆·沃尔顿在狂妄自大时所提出的8年1.4万亿美元的数字，这个数字更易接受，也更现实。

Now that's still a huge number, but it's much more palatable, and I would add realistic than the $1,400,000,000,000 over eight years number that CEO, Sam Walton, was talking about in full hubris.

其次，也是更重要的是，OpenAI现已完成了其长期传闻的1000亿美元私募融资轮。

Second and more importantly, OpenAI has now completed its long rumored $100,000,000,000 private fundraising round.

事实上，他们筹集了1100亿美元，其中500亿美元来自亚马逊，各300亿美元来自英伟达和软银。

In fact, they raised a $110,000,000,000 with 50,000,000,000 coming from Amazon and 30,000,000,000 a piece from Nvidia and Softbank.

因此，至少在近期内和中期内，OpenAI完全可以轻松支付账单。

So at least for the near term and medium term future, OpenAI can easily pay its bills.

这消除了Oracle的一大顾虑。

That takes a major worry off the table for Oracle.

现在，我还想再谈一点本季度的其他内容，如果时间允许的话。

Now there was one more I think to this quarter that I'd love to cover if I had more time.

管理层对有关软件即服务末日的种种言论做出了有力回应，这一点马克·贝尼奥夫曾在我们的节目中提到过。

Management came out with a great rebuttal to all this talk of a software as a service apocalypse, something that Mark Benioff from Oracle has talked about in our show.

请记住，尽管Oracle在建设数据中心方面业务庞大，但它原本是一家纯粹的企业软件公司，如今仍从事着大量的软件业务。

Remember, while Oracle's got a huge business building data centers, this used to be a pure play on enterprise software company, and they're still doing a ton of software business.

因此，他们对当前的情况有着非常清晰的认识。

So they have a very good read on what's happening here.

当然，仍有一些 lingering 的担忧可能影响股价，尤其是高达200亿美元的股权融资计划，可能会对股价造成一定冲击。

Of course, there are still some lingering concerns that they could hurt the stock, especially the $20,000,000,000 at the market equity offering that might do some damage to the share price.

不过，尽管存在这一融资计划的阴影，股价今天仍上涨了9%以上，因此它可能并不会像你想象的那样造成严重后果。

That said, the stock went ran up more than 9% today despite the specter of that offering, so it might not make the debt your thing.

让我给你总结一下重点。

Let me give you the bottom line here.

赢就是赢，这一季度对甲骨文来说是一次巨大的胜利。

A win is a win, and this latest quarter was a big win for Oracle.

这只股票自去年秋天以来一直与人工智能数据中心的担忧联系在一起。

A stock that's been synonymous with AI data center worries since last fall.

在一个疯狂且不可预测的环境中，正如我开头所说，这个主题依然表现稳健。

In a crazy unpredictable environment, as I said at the top, this is one theme that's just holding on fine.

还有那些大量做空它的对冲基金，他们已经领教了创始人、董事长兼首席技术官拉里·埃里森的怒火，相信我，这比成吉思汗的怒火还要可怕得多。

Oh, and those myriad hedge funds who bet against it, they have felt the wrath of founder, chairman, and chief technical officer Larry Ellison, which trust me, is a lot worse than even the wrath of Khan.

你的朋友在休息间隙回来了。

Your buddy's back here for the break.

接下来，在经历了一次意外回调后，现在是不是将Power Solutions International纳入投资组合的好时机？

Coming up, after a surprising pullback, is now the time to plug Power Solutions International into your portfolio?

克雷默接下来将分享他学到的内容。

Cramer's presenting what he's learned next.

在开球前，CNBC体育的迈克尔·奥扎尼安将深入分析最新数据。

Before the first pitch, CNBC Sports' Michael Ozanian goes deep on the latest numbers.

我们的工资总额将超过3亿美元。

We're gonna have payrolls well over $300,000,000.

周五在CNBC和CNBC Plus的《早间播报》节目中公布了官方的MLB球队估值。

Official MLB team valuations revealed Friday in Squawk Box on CNBC and CNBC Plus.

昨晚的闪电环节中，我们接到了来自新泽西的罗密欧的电话，他问：‘那透过远方窗户的柔和光线是什么？’

During the lightning round last night, we got a call from Romeo in New Jersey who asked, what soft light through yonder window breaks?

好吧。

Alright.

开玩笑的。

Kidding.

开玩笑的。

Kidding.

罗密欧实际上问的是一家叫Power Solutions International（PSIX）的公司，这家公司设计、工程和制造各种发动机动力系统和配件。

Romeo actually asked about a company called Power Solutions International, PSIX, which designs engineers and manufactures a broad range of engine power systems and accessories.

这和莎士比亚一点关系都没有。

Nothing to do with Shakespeare at all.

这是我在去年闪电环节推荐过的一个名字，这只股票之前表现不错，直到几周前才开始下滑。

It's a name that I'd recommended in the lightning round last year, and the stock had been doing well until just a couple of weeks ago.

但我发现它最近从高点大幅下跌，所以我告诉罗密欧：嘿，我得仔细看看这里到底发生了什么，然后给出一个比简单敷衍说‘看起来不错’更好的评估。

But I saw that it come down significantly from its highs recently, so I told Romeo, hey, listen, I I gotta look into what the heck happened here, right, and come back with a better assessment than just cuffing and saying, hey, it looks good.

因为你，这种敷衍在闪电环节是行不通的。

That doesn't work for the lightning round because of you.

你

You

值得更好的对待。

deserve better.

首先，让我给你一些背景信息。

First of let me give you some background.

Power Solutions International 已经存在了四十多年，并于2011年通过所谓的反向并购交易上市。

Power Solutions International has been around for over four decades, and it came public in 2011 through what's known as reverse merger transaction.

但作为一家上市公司，大多数时间它都太小了，不值得在节目中提及。

But for most of the time as a publicly traded company, it was far too small to mention on air.

但过去几年情况发生了变化，该股票大幅上涨。

Now that changed the last couple of years as the stock had a huge move higher.

总的来说，Power Solutions International 的股价从两年前的约2美元上涨至去年夏天晚些时候的121美元左右。

Overall, Power Solutions International went from a low of $2 roughly just two years ago to a high of a $121 and change late last summer.

我们来想一想。

Now let's think about it.

这可比一张2美元的彩票强多了。

That's a heck of a lot better than a $2 lottery ticket.

对吧？

Right?

这正是我告诉你们在任何市场中都应该寻找的股票类型。

This is precisely the kind of stock I tell you to look for in how to make money in any market.

这样的股票到处都是。

They are all over the place.

我们只需要齐心协力。

We just have to put our minds together.

去年底，股价可能出现了回调。

It could pull back late last year.

该股票在2026年初又迎来一波上涨，曾在二月中旬短暂重返三位数交易区间。

The stock made another run, starting in 2026 briefly, briefly trading to the triple digits again in mid February.

但自那以后，股价再次崩盘，跌至目前的五十五美元左右区间。

But since then, the stock had a breakdown encore, taking it down to the point where it's now trading in the mid fifties.

那么，这到底发生了什么？

So what the heck on earth happened here?

首先，我们从它的业务说起。

Well, first, let's start with what it does.

这是一家典型的工业公司，通过向数据中心销售备用电源系统赚取巨额利润。

This is one of many textbook industrial companies have been making fortunes by selling backup power systems to data centers.

我跟你说过，这是全国范围内一个不错的主题。

Told you that's a good theme all over the country.

我们一直在讨论这个主题。

We talk about this theme constantly.

不同之处在于，Power Solutions International 比卡特彼勒或康明斯小得多。

The difference is that Power Solutions International is much, much smaller than Caterpillar or Cummins.

因此，进入数据中心备用发电机领域彻底改变了他们的整个业务。

So this move into backup generators for data centers has fundamentally transformed their whole business.

结果，该公司去年实现了近52%的收入增长。

As a result, the company put up nearly 52% revenue growth last year.

同时，Power Solutions International 的盈利能力也大幅提升。

At the same time, Power Solutions International has become a heck of a lot more profitable.

2022年，他们的每股收益为69美分。

2022, they earned 69¢ per share.

去年，他们的每股收益达到4.98美元。

Last year, they earned $4.98 per share.

这三年的增长幅度真是巨大，对吧？

Now that's a tremendous three year increase, isn't it?

那么，到底出了什么问题？

So then what went wrong?