吉姆·克莱默的疯狂金钱节目 2026年3月25日

这可能对卡车行业的部分领域构成负面信号，让我给你讲讲这个令人振奋的转折的要点。

Probably should be a negative read through for parts of the trucking industry, Let me give you the bottom line on this incredibly exciting turnaround.

在伊朗战争导致波斯湾石油供应中断后，运输板块遭遇了剧烈抛售，而看到联邦快递报告了极为出色的季度业绩，并在面对糟糕的债务时股价仍强劲反弹，真是令人欣慰。

After a harsh sell off in the transports in response to the war with Iran, cutting off oil supplies in the Persian Gulf, it was nice to see FedEx report a really terrific quarter and then rally in response to a really ugly debt.

这家公司表现极其出色，我认为其股价还有上涨空间，甚至可能显著上涨。

This company is doing incredibly well, and I think the stock deserves to go higher, maybe appreciably higher.

当然，霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时间越长，持有包括联邦快递在内的任何运输类股票就越困难。

Of course, the longer the Strait Of Her moon stays closed, the harder it gets to own any of the transports, including FedEx.

但如果这些公司中有一家能在这场危机中全身而退，我认为非它莫属。

But if any of these companies is gonna escape the situation unscathed, I think it'll be this one.

广告结束后，资金回来了。

Man money is back after the break.

随着中东战争扰乱天然气出口，美国生产商似乎准备填补这一空缺。

Coming up with the war in The Middle East disrupting natural gas exports, American producers look primed to fill the void.

克拉默将为你推荐接下来的投资标的。

Cramer is giving you his picks to invest in next.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我不害怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以以许多不同的形式展现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。

Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

新集数每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

两天前，我与杰夫·马丁进行了对话。

Two days ago, I spoke with Jeff Martin.

他是塞姆普拉公司的首席执行官。

He's the CEO of Sempra.

就在那次采访的最后，他给了我一个想法，我至今都无法忘怀。

And right at the end of that interview, he gave me an idea that I frankly haven't been able to shake since.

就在以色列轰炸了伊朗最大的天然气田后，伊朗 retaliated，袭击了卡塔尔的世界最大液化天然气出口终端。

This was right after Israel bombed Iran's largest gas field, and Iran retaliated by striking the world's largest liquefied natural gas export terminal in Qatar.

我问他，中东的这场动荡是否能为美国成为全球更重要的液化天然气供应商铺平道路，他的回答是坚定的肯定。

I asked him if all this chaos in The Middle East could pave the way for The US to become a much more important supplier of liquefied natural gas to the rest of the world, And his answer was a resounding yes.

我们后来了解到，修复卡塔尔的这个设施可能需要三到五年。

We've since learned that it could take three to five years to repair this facility in Qatar.

这将使全球液化天然气出口能力减少17%。

That's knocking out 17% of the liquefied natural gas export capacity.

好的。

Okay.

这太庞大了。

That's huge.

韩国从卡塔尔进口的液化天然气占其进口总量的14%。

South Korea gets 14% of their LNG imports from Qatar.

印度约三分之二的液化天然气来自卡塔尔，而阿联酋和阿曼也都在伊朗火箭的打击范围内。

India gets about two thirds from Qatar, and The UAE and Oman, all of which are within striking distance of Iranian rockets.

如果你是一个需要寻找天然气的国家，那么美国几乎在一夜之间成为了最可靠的供应来源。

Now if you're a country that needs to look to find natural gas, America's become the most reliable source of supply practically overnight.

既然塞姆普拉的首席执行官马丁引发了这个想法，那我们先从他的公司说起，这家公司帮助在路易斯安那州建造了美国最早的液化天然气出口设施之一。

Since chef Martin from Sempra sparked this idea, let's start with his company, which helped build one of the country's earliest LNG export facilities in Louisiana.

不幸的是，塞姆普拉主要是一家公用事业公司，他们更希望成为纯粹的能源企业。

Unfortunately, Sempra's mainly a utility, and they wanted to be more of a pure play.

因此，他们已同意将基础设施业务的多数股权出售给私募股权公司KKR。

So they've agreed to sell a majority stake in their infrastructure business to a private equity firm, KKR.

基本上，这已经变成一个受监管的公用事业故事，但仍然有一些液化天然气的上行潜力。

Basically, this has become a regulated utility story, and it's got some LNG upside though.

所以我们仍然非常看好CEMPRA。

So we we still like CEMPRA very much.

但如果你主要关注液化天然气出口这一主题，那么有比Sempra更好的投资方式。

But if let's say you're focused primarily on the LNG export thesis, well, are better ways to play it than Sempra.

最明显的一个，也是我们从节目一开始就讨论过的，是切尼尔能源公司，它的股票代码是LNG，给家里的投资者们。

Now the most obvious one, one we've talked about since the beginning of the show, is Cheniere Energy, and that symbol is LNG for you home gamers.

这些人几乎开创了现代液化天然气出口的故事，他们在2016年建成了近五十年来美国首个液化天然气出口终端，顺便说一句，这个终端原本计划是进口终端，后来我们意识到自己拥有如此丰富的天然气资源，就把它改成了出口终端。

These guys practically invented the modern day liquid by natural gas export story or opening up the first American LNG export terminal in nearly fifty years back in 2016, which, by way, was originally gonna be an import terminal, and you just switch it the other way when we realize how much natural gas we have.

如今，切尼尔是全球最大的液化平台之一，在路易斯安那州的萨宾帕斯和德克萨斯州的科珀斯克里斯蒂拥有两大设施。

Today, Cheniere is one of the world's largest liquefaction platforms with two major facilities in Sabine Pass, Louisiana and Corpus Christi, Texas.

去年，他们创下了液化天然气产量纪录。

They produced record LNG volumes last year.

最重要的是，这是一家纯粹的液化天然气公司。

Most importantly, this is a pure play.

切尼尔能源2025年的液化天然气收入约为194亿美元，占其总收入约200亿美元。

Cheniere generated about $19,400,000,000 of LNG revenue in 2025 against roughly 20,000,000,000 of total revenue.

如果你想要规模最大、最成熟、流动性最强、且与全球对美国液化天然气需求直接相关的公司，那么你应该从这里开始寻找。

If you want the biggest, most established, most liquid name with the most direct correlation to the world needing more liquefied natural gas from America, well, this is where you should start your search.

当然，投资切尼尔能源你已经不是早期入场了。

Of course, with Cheniere, you're not early to the story.

该股票目前处于历史最高位。

Stock's trading at all time high.

自2026年以来，股价已上涨了约45%。

It's it's up roughly 45% just since the 2026.

但它是液化天然气领域最纯粹的投资标的，而且股价其实并不贵，当前市盈率仅略低于今年盈利预测的20倍。

But it's the cleanest play on LNG, and that stock's not actually not even that expensive, trading just under 20 times this year's earnings estimates.

另一个绝佳的选择是恩布里奇。

Another great option is Enbridge.

它是我在《如何在任何市场中赚钱》中重点推荐的八大高收益成长型股票之一。

That's a member of the elite eight income stocks with growth that I highlight and how to make money in any market.

这家多元化的加拿大能源公司拥有庞大的管道业务，运输着北美30%的原油。

This diversified Canadian energy company has a major pipeline business doing moves 30% of the crude oil produced in North America.

没有人能接近这个规模。

No one's near that.

同时运营着北美最大的天然气公用事业公司，供应了美国近20%的天然气消耗量。

And nearly 20% of the natural gas consumed in The US, while also operating the continent's largest natural gas utility.

Enbridge通过其庞大的天然气管道业务，涉足了液化天然气出口领域。

Enbridge has exposure to the LNG export story via its immense natural gas pipeline business.

但其直接参与LNG的项目是位于不列颠哥伦比亚省的一个液化天然气出口终端，Enbridge持有其30%的权益。

But the direct LNG angle here is an LNG export terminal in British Columbia, which Enbridge has a 30% interest in.

该终端预计将于明年投入运营。

It's expected to enter service next year.

由于位于西海岸，它将成为向亚洲运输天然气最快捷的途径。

And because it's on the West Coast, it'll be the fastest way to ship natural gas to Asia.

我们大多数液化天然气设施都位于墨西哥湾沿岸或东海岸，因此必须先穿越巴拿马运河才能抵达亚洲。

Most of our LNG facilities are on the Gulf Coast or the East Coast, so they have to put they have to cut through the Panama Canal first to get to Asia.

恩布里奇，我们就不绕开这个话题了。

Enbridge, we're gonna let you get around that.

当然，我主要喜欢这只股票，因为它是一家管道运营商，股息非常丰厚，目前收益率为5.3%。

Of course, I mainly like the stock because it's a pipeline operator with a terrific dividend, currently yields 5.3%.

你投资恩布里奇并不是为了它的LNG业务。

You don't buy l Enbridge for its LNG exposure.

你投资它是因为它的天然气管道和丰厚的股息。

You buy it for the gas pipelines and the bountiful dividend.

同样地，我还经常提到另一只股票，那就是如何在任何市场中赚钱，那就是企业产品合作伙伴，EPD。

Along the same lines, there's another one that I talk about and how to make money any in any market, and that's n enterprise products partner, EPD.

这是一家管道公司，我认为在各方面都是运营得最好的。

This is a pipeline company that I think, many ways, is the best run of all of them.

我们先从股息说起。

Let's start with the dividend.

它提供5.9%的收益率。

It's supports a 5.9% yield.

这是一家上市超过二十五年的公司，但仍然是石油和天然气行业中被关注最少的股票之一。

It's a company that's been public for over a quarter century, but but it's still one of the most under followed names in the oil and gas industry.

每次我向别人提起它，他们都会赶紧记下来。

Every time I mention to people, they scribble it down.

他们从来没听说过它。

They've never heard of it.

企业产品公司并非主要的液化天然气出口商，但却是关键的原料气和液体基础设施提供商。

Enterprise Products is not a primary LNG exporter, but it is a critical feed gas and liquids infrastructure provider.

它一直是在建设新工厂方面的领导者。

It's always been a leader in building new plants.

这家公司拥有大量管道、处理厂和一种称为分馏的设施。

This is the company that owns a huge amount of the pipes, plants processing, and a word called fractionation.

它们将原油分离成不同组分，以帮助供应天然气出口系统。

They split up the oil into different pieces that help feed the nat gas exports, system.

那么，你觉得企业产品合作伙伴作为整个天然气和液体生态系统中的‘军火商’怎么样？

So what do you think of Enterprise Product Partners as an arms dealer to the entire gas and liquids ecosystem?

液化天然气本身仅占其超过500亿美元收入的一小部分。

LNG itself is only a fraction of its more than 50,000,000,000 revenue base.

但如果北美要向全球输送更多能源，企业将从其下方的基础设施建设中受益。

But if North America is gonna send more energy to the world, enterprise benefits from the build out underneath it.

这是一只安全的、能产生稳定收入的增长型股票，具有强大的长期催化剂。

This is another safe income generating growth stock with a strong long term catalyst.

企业是北美天然气系统间接的高质量收入投资标的，而该系统正推动出口热潮。

Enterprise is the indirect high quality income play on the broader North American gas system that feeds the export boom.

最后，我们得谈谈一个有争议的公司。

Finally, there's a controversial one we gotta talk about.

它叫Venture Global。

It's called Venture Global.

这是一家潜在高回报的纯概念股。

This is a potentially high upside pure play.

该公司于今年一月以每股25美元的价格上市。

Company came public in January at $25 a share.

每个人都对它充满期待，但IPO很快就令人极度失望。

Everyone was very excited about it, but the IPO overly disappointed almost immediately.

到了2025年，该股票交易价格已低于7美元。

At the 2025, the stock was trading below $7.

从那以后，我认为由于显著反弹进入新阶段，股价现已突破15美元，今年迄今上涨了130%。

Since then, I would say, because of the ward stage of remarkable rebounds now past the $15 mark, it's up a 130% year to date.

Venture Global的崛起建立在迅速建设出口能力的基础上。

Venture Global's rise was built on moving very quickly to build export capacity.

这就是你所关注的，从路易斯安那州的卡梅伦港开始。

This is what you're looking for, starting with Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana.

问题是，卡梅伦港成为了一场重大争议的中心。

The problem is that Calcasieu Pass became the center of a major dispute.

当它在2022年投入运营时，俄乌战争已导致全球LNG现货价格飙升。

When it opened in 2022, the Russia Ukraine war had sent global LNG spot prices soaring.

Venture Global将货物销往这个更强劲的短期市场，而长期客户则认为这些货物本应按现有合同交付，这正是引发反弹的原因。

Ventures sold cargoes into that much harder short term market, while long term customers argues that those volumes should have been delivered under existing contracts, and that is what created the backlash.

自那场仲裁纠纷以来，这一阴影一直笼罩着公司，尽管Venture Global仍在持续扩张。

That arbitration overhang has weighed on the story ever since, even as Ventures has keeps expanding.

虽然声誉受损是真实的，但他们已经解决了其中一些案件，甚至可能包括与壳牌和雷普索尔的几起纠纷。

While the reputational damage was real, they've already settled some of these cases, and maybe even one couple of Shell and Repsol.

如今让Venture Global如此引人注目的是，它已不再只是一个单一项目的故事。

What makes Venture Global so compelling now is the fact that it's no longer just a one asset story.

公司的前三个项目分别是卡梅尔港、普拉克明液化天然气和CP 2液化天然气。

The company's first three projects are Capucheau Pass, Plaquemines LNG, and CP 2 LNG.

就在上周，他们宣布了CP 2二期项目的融资，表示预计该设施将成为全国最大的液化天然气出口设施。

Just last week, they announced financing for phase two of CP two, saying they expect this facility to become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the whole country.

这是该集团中增长最激进的企业，公司试图在短时间内从备受争议的新秀成长为大规模出口商。

This is the most aggressive grower in the group with the company attempting to go from controversial upstart to major scale exporter in a short period of time.

Venture Global在2025年的收入约为138亿美元，同比增长177%。

Metro Global generated about $13,800,000,000 revenue in 2025, up a 177% year over year.

这是一家纯粹的巨头。

This is a pure blood.

如果你是真正的信徒，这个才是你该持有的。

This is the one you wanna own if you're a true believer.

简而言之。

Here's the bottom line.

在一个中东无法安全向全球供应液化天然气的世界里，我国的液化天然气出口变得更有价值。

In a world where The Middle East can't safely supply the world with liquefied natural gas, our country's LNG exports become a lot more valuable.

谢尔能源，最清洁、最成熟的纯正标的。

Shear energy, cleanest and most established pure play.

Venture Global 是那个具有巨大增长潜力的投机性标的。

Venture Global is the speculative one with a lot of growth.

而恩布里奇和企业产品公司，都是拥有优异股息的出色管道公司。

And then Enbridge and Enterprise Products, well, they're both terrific pipeline companies with terrific dividends.

恩布里奇还有自己的西海岸液化天然气业务加持。

Enbridge has its own West Coast LNG kicker.

企业产品公司则更多是间接受益于天然气产量的增长。

Enterprise being more of an indirect play on that gas volumes.

如果你相信美国能够成为更大的液化天然气供应国，就像我一样，那么这些全是投资这一趋势的绝佳方式。

If you believe that The United States can become a much larger supply of LNG as I do, these are all terrific ways to play it.

我们来听听来自密歇根的格雷格。

Let's go to Greg in Michigan.

格雷格。

Greg.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

给你一个响亮的密歇根式欢呼。

A big Michigan booyah to you.

我喜欢这个‘booyah’。

I'm liking that booyah.

我能怎么帮您？

How can I help?

嗨。

Hey.

我是长期的第二次快乐俱乐部会员，也是这本书的拥有者。

I'm a long time second time happy club member and book owner.

哦，谢谢你。

Oh, thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

感谢你所做的一切。

Thanks for all you do.

祝贺你完成二十年，接下来的二十年我们还需要你。

Congrats on finishing twenty years and we need you for the next twenty.

我哪儿也不去。

Well, I'm not going anywhere.

咱们开始工作吧。

Let's go to work.

好的。

Alright.

嘿，我之前在这只股票上被套住了，但现在得益于油气市场动荡，我已经涨了30%以上。

Hey, I've been underwater on this stock, but now I'm up over 30% with the gas and oil markets and turmoil.

我该继续持有等并购，还是现在就卖出Kotera Energy股票落袋为安？

Should I hold for the merger or ring the register now on Kotera Energy?

我会卖出一半，因为你已经赚了一大笔了，剩下的可以继续持有。

I would sell half because you've had just a monster move and let the rest run.

如果你这么做，我会觉得安心，因为你知道，我也持有过这只股票。

I would feel good if you did that because, you know, I owned it.

我们最后什么都没做。

We ended up not doing anything with it.

你抓住了这波大行情，但拿走一半利润吧，因为如果那边有任何变动，只要情况好转，这只股票很快又会回到30美元以下，我不想让你把盈利变成微薄的收益。

You caught it for the big one, but take half off because if we do get any sort of change, well, if anything goes well over there, that stock's gonna be right back under 30, and I don't want you to turn a gain into a much smaller.

谢谢你的夸奖。

And thank you for the kind words.

听好了。

Look.

如果你认为我国的液化天然气出口将继续在全球能源市场中发挥更大作用，那么这些公司都是很好的投资方式。

If you think our country's LNG exports will continue to play a larger role in the global energy market, then all these companies are just great ways to play it.

Venture Global 适合投机者。

Venture Global for the spec.

明白吗？

Okay?

液化天然气，Cheniere 适合稳健型投资者。

LNG, that's Cheniere for the established.

前方还有更多的利润。

There's much more money ahead.

100x 消费者数据将这项研究与在任何市场中赚钱的关键原则相结合，从而筛选出一些最佳的成长股。

The consumer data from 100 x combined this research with the key tenants of how to make money in any market doing that away some of the best growth stocks out there.

我要和公司的管理层坐下来聊聊。

I'm gonna sit down with the company's rest.

你最好准备好纸笔。

You better get your pencil and paper out.

一会儿会讨论一些不错的名字。

There are gonna be some good names discussed.

经历完我们刚刚度过的艰难一周后，你可能会想把所有东西都卖了。

Then you might be inclined to sell everything after a rough week like we've just had.

但今晚，我要详细分析为什么我认为这可能是错误的决定。

But tonight, I'm breaking down why I think that may be the wrong move.

还有今晚闪电环节的全部电话留言，快速播报。

And all your calls, rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round.

请继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

节目的粉丝都知道，我喜欢定期与100x公司互动。

Followers of the show know I like to check-in regularly with 100x.

这是一家私营的另类数据公司。

It's a privately held alternative data firm.

别担心。

Don't worry.

你不会被这个吓到的。

You'll don't get scared by that.

我们会解释清楚。

We'll explain it.

它利用真实客户的反馈来判断哪些品牌表现良好，哪些表现不佳。

That uses feedback from actual customers to figure out which brands are working and which aren't.

这些人的独特之处在于，他们会询问人们的未来购买意向，认为这比依赖滞后的销售数据或模糊的情绪数据要好得多。

What sets these guys apart is that they ask people about their future purchase intent, relying that that's much better than relying on backward looking sales data or squishier sentiment data.

例如，去年12月，100x的创始人兼首席执行官罗布·佩斯告诉我们，Anthropix的爪形AI平台正引起越来越多的关注，而这发生在它真正走红的几周前。

For example, back in December, Rob Pace, the founder and CEO of 100x, told us about the rising interest in Anthropix's clawed AI platform a few weeks before it really caught on.

我甚至都不知道有这回事。

I I didn't even know it.

一个月前，他就告诉我们Five Below表现非常突出。

A month before that, he told us that Five Below was really standing out.

果然，本周他们公布财报时，业绩远超预期，我一直称它为市场上最热门的股票。

And sure enough, when they reported this week, they blew away the numbers I've been calling it the hottest stock in the market.

今晚，我们请回罗布，因为他最近读了我的新书《如何在任何市场中赚钱》，他想将书中的主题与100x数据集的独特见解结合起来。

Tonight, we're bringing Rob back because he recently read my new book, How to Make Money in Any Market, And he wants to pair the themes from the book with unique insights from 100x's dataset.

我得说，他为我的艺术性注入了科学的依据。

And I've gotta tell you, he put some science to my artistry.

佩斯先生，欢迎再次回到Midbody。

Mister Pace, welcome back to Midbody.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

所以，罗布，你和我有一个共同点。

So Rob, you and I share something in common.

我们都喜欢字母表中的某个字母，这个字母是？

We both love a particular letter in the alphabet, and that letter is?

M代表多重性。

M for multiple.

那为什么这一点如此重要？

And why does that matter so much?

因为这是投资中最关键的事情。

Because it's the most important thing in investing.

归根结底，股票的价值等于收益乘以市盈率。

At the end of the day, a stock is is earnings times multiple.

而最被低估的因素就是市盈率。

And the most underappreciated thing is the multiple.

我们一直在研究市盈率的科学原理，因为它太重要了。

And we've been working on the science of the multiple because it is so important.

我确实经常谈论市盈率，并且投入了大量时间研究它。

Well, I talk about the multiple, and I spend a huge amount of time doing it.

我得说，罗布，我觉得自己是在拿性命冒险，因为人们总说这话题太枯燥，根本没法讲清楚。

And I have to tell I think I took my life in my hands, Rob, because it's a people say it's a boring topic and it can't be explained.

但你让它活了起来，因为你真的给它赋予了具体的数据。

You have it come to life because you actually put some numbers on it.

向人们解释这个价值概念，让我们清楚地理解为什么一只股票有这样的表现，而另一只股票却有不同表现。

Explain this value concept to people so that we understand exactly why one stock did one thing and one stock did another.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们举两个非常知名的例子。

Let's do let's take two very high profile examples.

在沃尔玛走向万亿美元的过程中，80%的回报来自估值倍数，而不是盈利。

So Walmart on their March to a trillion dollars, 80% of the return came from the multiple, not the earnings.

如果Salesforce能维持其估值倍数，吉姆，它们的市值本应达到3500亿美元，而不是1800亿。

And Salesforce, if they had just maintained their multiple, Jim, they'd be at $350,000,000,000 instead of a 180.

这很重要。

This matters.

所以我们一直在研究它。

So we've been studying it.

我们与德勤合作，分析了他们的所有数据和我们的所有数据，发现了一个关键词——价值。

We have a partnership with Deloitte, and we've looked at all of their data, all of our data, and what we've discovered is one word that matters, value.

没问题。

No problem.

对客户说价值，对股东说价值，还是对所有人说价值？

Say value to the customer, value to the stockholder, or value to everyone?

对客户的价值。

Value to the customer.

所以你需要这样理解市盈率以及如何领先于市盈率。

So here's here's how you need to think about the multiple and getting ahead of the multiple.

我们研究过，关键在于，这家公司是否以更低的价格提供了更多的价值？

We studied it, and what matters is, does the company provide more value for the price?

如果答案是肯定的，接下来会发生什么。

And if they do, here's what happens.

历史上，它们的增长速度比低价值性价比品牌快5%到8%。

They grow historically five to 8% faster than low value for the price brands.

它们未来的购买意向高出7%到9%，而且如果它们能够提升定价，还能额外获得15%到20%的市盈率提升，从而享受复利效应与市盈率增长的叠加优势。

Their future purchase intent, what we look at is seven to 9% higher, and they also get the added benefit if they trade up 15 to 20% multiple to get the power of compounding multiplied by an increase in the multiple.

所以这并不是模糊的。

So it's not squishy.

这是投资中最重要的事情。

It's the most important thing in investing.

现在我们听到这些数字是五，我们可能会说，但这些只是小数字。

Now we hear those numbers five, now we might say, but but those are little numbers.

实际上，这些能带来巨大的收益。

In reality, those produce huge gains.

对吧？

Right?

复利才是真正发挥作用的地方。

Compounding is is is really where this plays out.

那我们来谈谈沃尔玛吧。

So on Walmart, let's talk about that.

我知道我喜欢沃尔玛，是因为我有观察力。

I know I started liking Walmart because I have powers of observation.

我带我时尚的女儿去了那里。

I took my fashion daughter there.

她说，爸爸，这里的衣服太划算了，而且她还是个烘焙师。

She said, dad, the clothes here are a steal, and then she's also a baker.

她说，天啊，面粉便宜得离谱。

She said, oh my god, flour's so low.

我们原本以为的物超所值，真的是物超所值。

What we thought was value, value, value.

我们心里没说出来，但我的体会是，等等，沃尔玛变了，它现在为所有人提供价值，而不仅仅是某个经济阶层。

We didn't say it in our minds, but my takeaway was, wait a second, Walmart's changed, and it's offering value to everybody, not just to a certain economic class.

说得太对了。

That's exactly right.

事实上，我们的数据显示，年收入超过20万美元的人也在光顾沃尔玛。

In fact, we see people making over $200,000 a year calling out Walmart in our data.

所以发生的变化是，他们一直都有低价，但现在还提升了购物体验和便利性。

So what happened is they always had price, but they added a better experience and convenience.

关于最小可行产品和价值，这里有件事要说。

So here's the thing about MVPs and value.

你通常可以用一个理由来说明，为什么？

You can usually say it in one sense, why?

这对你的观众在选股时是个很好的经验法则，就是要能说出这个理由。

And that's a really good rule of thumb for your audience as they're picking their stocks, is to be able to say that.

是的。

Yes.

因为我总是告诉人们，看看，电子交易发生的一个不太好的变化是，当我还在高盛时，我会说，告诉我你为什么喜欢这只股票。

Because I always tell people, look, one of the things that happened that was not great about electronic trading is is that when I was at Goldman, I say, tell me why you like this.

但现在没人会问你了，所以你有时只会说，哦，图表看起来不错。

And now no one tell you never get asked, so you just sometimes say, oh, the chart looks good.

事情肯定不止这么简单。

There's gotta be more to it than that.

现在，我想谈谈观察力的重要性，我正试图弄清楚如何为价格估值。

Now, I wanna talk about powers of observation that have where I'm trying to figure out exactly how to value for price.

我们来谈谈邮轮行业吧，因为很多人都对这个有所了解。

And let's talk about the cruise industry because that's something a lot of people know about.

是的。

Yeah.

我们来看看100倍的数据，三万名乘客，以及三十个品牌。

So let's look at 100x data, 30,000 passengers, and 30 brands.

你是说你收集了三万名乘客的数据？

You're telling me you pulled 30,000 people.

是的。

Yeah.

我们几乎有一百万，但……

Well, we have almost a million, but what

这太难以置信了。

That's unbelievable.

请记住，这是实证数据。

That specific Remember, that's empirical.

这可不是个例。

That's not an anecdote.

对。

Right.

这是经过验证的数据。

This is this is this is hardened data.

所以关键点在这里。

So here's the key point.

关于迪士尼的价格反馈实际上低于平均水平，但它们在价值上脱颖而出。

Our feedback on price for Disney is actually below the average, but they stand out on value.

维京邮轮和皇家加勒比也是如此。

Same thing with Viking, same thing with Royal Caribbean.

关键在于，如果你看看竞争对手，这些品牌在不同价格段都是顶尖的。

The key point is, if you saw the competitors, these would be best in class at different price points.

是的。

Yes.

物有所值。

More value for the price.

归根结底，这靠的是你的观察能力，这也是你在书中提到的内容。

And at the end of the day, it's using your powers of observation, something you also talk about in your book.

但如果你是MVP，你会成长得更快。

But if you're an MVP, you grow faster.

你会成长得更快，并且会因更高的利润率而获得回报。

You will grow faster, and you'll be rewarded with a higher margin.

那么，罗布，我该如何将观察能力与你所拥有的硬核实证数据结合起来？

Well, Rob, how do I marry the power of observation with the hardcore empirical data you have?

归根结底，我的观点毫无意义，但你在这里看到的，实际上是普通消费者看法的汇总。

Well, ultimately, my opinion means nothing, but basically what you're seeing here is a rolling up of what typical consumers think.

对。

Right.

有趣的是，普通消费者对这一点的直觉其实比机构投资者更准确，因为

So what's interesting is the average consumer actually has a better intuitive sense of this than the institutional investor And because

他们就是这样生活的，所以我一直说你不必只投资指数基金，因为你拥有这些能力，尽管很多人对此嗤之以鼻。

they live that's why I keep saying you don't have to live only in index funds because you have powers, and they derided by a lot of people.

这恰恰与你目前所做的事情相反。

The opposite of what you're doing right now.

你是在赋能。

You're empowering.

赋能本身就是一件好事，而不是坏事。

Empowerment is a per se good thing, not a bad thing.

所以现在请向我们展示一下，我在这里看到一些情况，其中一些会被高度估值，有些则可能因为是优秀公司而理应获得高估值。

So now show us you've got a couple situations here that I'm seeing that some of them are gonna be highly valued, some of them maybe should be highly valued because they're good companies.

让我们了解一下我们正在看到什么。

Give us a sense of what we're seeing.

是的。

Yeah.

这些都是MVP，我们筛选出的MVP品牌一共有1200个。

These are all MVPs and what we select, we actually have 1,200 brands that are MVPs.

把这想象成你的屏幕。

So think of this as your screen.

你知道，你在书中谈到了如何找到高质量的袜子。

You know, you basically talk about finding high quality socks in your book.

把这想象成一个屏幕。

Think about this as a screen.

这些是在其价格水平上脱颖而出的人或品牌。

These are people or brands that stick out at their given price point sometimes.

那么我们先看最明显的一个。

So so let's take the most obvious one.

好市多、TJX，人人都喜欢物超所值。

Costco, TJX, everybody loves a bargain.

是的。

Yes.

它们的商业模式创造了价值。

And their business model has created value.

对吧？

Right?

但你一个一个地列举，每个背后都有一个故事。

But you go name by name and there's always a story.

我能为你逐一解释为什么它们在价格上更具价值。

There's a sense that I could give you each one of these on why they're more value for price.

这告诉我，也许你应该寻找异常情况。

Well, what this tells me is maybe you wanna look for anomalies.

比如，我觉得Chewy下周要发布财报。

For instance, I happen to think that Chewy was reports next week.

股价从47美元跌到了二十多美元。

The stock's down from 47 down to low twenties.

也许这是一个上涨的机会，但别在财报前行动。

Maybe that could be an up don't do it ahead of the court.

对。

Right.

但这可能是一个机会。

But maybe that's an opportunity.

哥伦比亚，我觉得他们的产品非常好。

Columbia, I think, has some of the highest I love their stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

但股价现在处于历史最低点。

But the stock is on the new lowest of the time.

也许这些迹象表明，有人没有讲好这个故事。

Maybe these are signs that someone doesn't tell the story right.

不过，吉姆，还可能有另一件事发生，这就是人工智能的角度。

It it could be that the other thing that's going to happen though, Jim, and this is the AI angle.

你的AI代理不仅会为你进行价格比较，还会进行价值比较。

Your AI agent is not only gonna do price comparisons for you, they're gonna do value comparisons.

它们会了解吉姆·克莱默看重什么，而在这种环境下，哥伦比亚的表现会更好。

They're gonna know what Jim Cramer values, and they're basically and and Columbia's gonna do better in that world.

所以，富人将在MVP方面变得更有钱，这就是为什么理解它并将其与多重性联系起来如此重要。

So the rich are gonna get richer in terms of MVP, and that's why it's so important to understand it and connect it to the multiple.

好吧，我得告诉罗布，你又一次猜中了我的想法，同时你也是所有那些觉得自己可以做到但又害怕或感到被行业贬低的人的绝佳助手，而我非常高兴你从未这样。

Well, I gotta tell Rob, once again, you are both a mind reader of what I'm thinking, but a great assistant to everyone out there who really feels that they can do it, but scared to or feels denigrated by the industry of which I am so glad you never do.

这是罗布·佩斯，百加额外事物的创始人兼首席执行官，这对我来说非常有趣。

That's Rob Pace, founder and CEO of hundred extra stuff is fascinating for me.

非常有趣。

Fascinating.

M是最重要的字母。

And m is the most powerful letter.

内德·迈克在后面。

Ned Mike is back there.

接下来，你们有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克拉默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接接下来的快速闪电环节吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

然后闪电环节就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗，史蒂夫？

Are you ready, Steve?

你好。

Hi.

谢谢你，吉姆，为了

Thank you, Jim, for

接我的电话。

taking my call.

上周见到你真好。

Nice seeing you last week.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我想利用这次油气价格上涨的机会。

I wanna take advantage I wanna take advantage of the gas oil surge.

我喜欢FTI科技。

I like FTI tech.

FTI

FTI

是一家非常不错的公司。

is a very good company.

与其他同类公司相比，它的股价仍然偏高。

It's still in expensive versus the others in the cohort.

我会考虑买入。

I would be a buyer.

我们来谈谈佐治亚和肯塔基，佐治亚。

Let's go to Georgia in Kentucky, Georgia.

嘿。

Hey.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

这是斯科特。

This is Scott.

我女儿有个问题想问你。

My daughter has a question for you.

您好，克拉默先生。

Hi, mister Cramer.

我叫佐治亚。

My name is Georgia.

我参加了一个高中投资俱乐部，我的股票下跌了。

I'm in a high school investment club, and my stock went down.

我在找一只股票，希望在未来几周内大幅上涨，最好是在能源和国防领域。

I'm looking for a stock to make a big jump in the next few weeks, preferably in energy and defense.

我正在关注ISS这只股票，但您觉得未来几周哪只股票表现会好？

I'm looking at the stock ISS, but what stock do you think would do good in the next few weeks?

ISS。

ISS.

你手里有个热门股票啊。

You got a hot stock there.

我得说，小伙子，虽然不太想同意Georgia的看法，但如果你想要，这确实是一只非常激进的成长型股票。

I've got to tell you, boy, hate to agree with Georgia, I you know, here's what I I if you want, that's a very aggressive growth stock.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

我支持你，因为你年轻，年轻人就应该抓住这样的成长型股票。

I'm gonna bless it because you're young and young people should be able to take advantage of growth stocks like that one.

我们接一下弗吉尼亚的金。

Let's go to Kim in Virginia.

金。

Kim.

好的。

Yes.

是的，吉姆。

Yes, Jim.

是吉姆。

It's Jim.

你最近怎么样？

How you doing?

我喜欢你的节目。

I love your show.

妈妈告诉我别多说。

Mama told me not to say too much.

你能听到我吗？

Can you hear me?

是的。

Yes.

我听得清清楚楚。

I hear you loud and clear.

好吧。

Alright.

我喜欢你的节目。

Love your show.

妈妈告诉我别多说。

Mama told me not to say too much.

我想问问关于Olma，o-l-m-a。

I wanna ask about Olma, o l m a.

对我来说风险太大了。

Too risky for me.

我只是觉得，在当前这个市场阶段，你可能会亏太多钱。

I I just think that at this at this stage with this market, that one you could lose too much money.

非常抱歉。

I'm very sorry.

我们转到加利福尼亚的贝琪。

Let's go to Betsy in California.

贝齐。

Betsy.

是的。

Yeah.

你好，贝齐。

Hi, Betsy.

对。

Yep.

该你了。

You're up.

是吉姆。

It's Jim.

是吉姆。

It's Jim.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我是来自加利福尼亚的贝茜。

This is Betsy from California.

我觉得三月一开始像狮子，吉姆，但我觉得它结束时像羔羊。

And I think that I think that that March goes in like a lion, Jim, but I think it comes out like a lamb.

羔羊研究。

Lamb research.

哦，

Oh,

是的。

yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意。

I agree.

拉姆是我俱乐部里最成功的股票。

Lam is the winner of what happened in my club.

人们似乎没注意到，如果你打算买100股，你可以在周一先买50股。

People didn't seem to notice you buy if you would buy a 100 shares you buy 50 on Monday.

好的。

Okay.

然后等股价下跌10%，再买另外50股。

And then you wait down 10% and you buy another 50.

你在拉姆研究公司上赚到了。

You've got a winner in Lam Research.

我要连线纽约的戴维。

I need to go to David in New York.

戴维。

David.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

谢谢你接听我的电话。

Thank you for taking my call.

当然。

Of course.

吉姆，康尼格拉品牌公司。

Jim, Conagra Brands

一直在多个方面遇到挑战。

has been having challenges in several.

康尼格拉。

Conagra.

康尼格拉挺难的。

Conagra's tough.

我从不只因为股息率就买入一只股票。

I never buy a stock just for its yield.

康嘉的股息很高，但我并不想投资那里。

Conagra's got a big yield, but I don't wanna go there.

各位女士先生，闪电环节到此结束。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，当前市场中是否存在任何积极的转机？

Coming up, is there any silver lining to be found in the markets right now?

克雷默认为可能存在一个，但那并不是一条容易的路。

Cramer thinks there could be one, but it isn't the easy path.

他将在下文进行解释。

He'll explain next.

吉姆·克雷默。

Jim Cramer.

我是第一次打电话，一个开心的俱乐部会员。

I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.

我想感谢你

I wanna thank you for

作为投资者的人民代言人。

being the people's champion of investment.

谢谢你帮助我成为百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

我们刚刚经历了一个糟糕的一周。

We've just come through an awful week.

你知道最糟糕的是什么吗？

And you know what's the worst thing about it?

标普500指数今年跌幅仍不到5%，市盈率（Forward P/E）仍高于20，相对于当前的市场环境而言仍然偏高。

The S and P five hundred is still only down less than 5% for the year with a forward price earnings ratio that is still North Of 20, which is relatively rich versus this current backdrop.

换句话说，我们既不便宜，跌幅也不大。

In other words, we aren't cheap and we aren't down a lot yet.

这使得很难大胆出手。

That makes it hard to take a big swing.

我们只是不想回头时说，我们当时在想什么？

We just don't want to look back and say, what were we thinking?

我们有数千名海军陆战队正在集结，试图打通摩斯海峡。

We have thousands of marines massing to try to unblock the Strait Of Moose.

即使我们已经被告知已经击沉了伊朗海军的较小舰艇，我们仍在继续摧毁它们。

We're blowing up the smaller ships of the Iranian Navy even after we were told that we'd sunk them already.

我们听说沙特方面在谈论每桶180美元的油价。

We have the Saudis talking about a $180 a barrel of oil.

嘿。

Hey.

油价仅在三月份就上涨了近50%，而且利率也开始上升，就像大衰退前那样。

The oil just increased nearly 50% just in March, and we have interest rates starting to trade up like they did before the Great Recession.

事实上，利率似乎每天都在上涨。

In fact, rates seem to go up every day.

感觉现在正是抛售的好时机，而不是买入，对吧？

Feels like a tremendous time to sell, right, not to buy.

现在，我不能责怪任何想退出的人。

Now I can't blame anyone who wants out.

这种局面持续数月的可能性令人恐惧。

The idea that this moment can drag on for months is terrifying.

总统希望打一场短期战争，但目前这更多取决于伊朗，而不是美国。

The president wants a short war, but that's more up to Iran at this point than The United States.

只要他们还在向海峡和中东各地的石油基础设施发射火箭，我们就不能简单地宣布胜利并回家。

As long as they're shooting rockets at the strait and oil infrastructure all over the Middle East, we can't just declare victory and go home.

与此同时，石油股票却持续上涨不止。

Meanwhile, the oil stocks just don't stop running.

相信我，如果石油价格有任何回落的可能，这些股票早就暴跌了。

And believe me, if there were any chance that oil was gonna roll over, these stocks would be plunging first.

这是一场糟糕的局势，但说来讽刺，这恰恰是唯一有利的事情——唯一可能帮助多头的因素。

It's a miserable situation, which is frankly the only thing that's good about it, the only thing that can possibly help the bulls.

现在我们知道，下跌并不能解决问题。

Now we know that declines don't solve the problem.

如果局势持续升级，很难想象市场还能继续上涨。

It's difficult to imagine that the market can go higher if the score goes one and on.

我们曾经认为，当总统告诉我们伊朗军力已被削弱时，是个买入机会，但我们知道，要引爆缺乏保护的石油设施根本不需要多少力量。

We did think there was a chance to buy when the president told us that Iran's military had been degraded, but we know that it simply doesn't take much to ignite unprotected oil facilities.

一架廉价的携带爆炸物的无人机，就能完成几年前我们需用大型轰炸机才能做到的事，而且成本低得多。

A cheap drone with some explosives can do what we need a huge bomber to do a few years ago and for a lot less money.

无论我们轰炸多少次他们的军火库和无人机制造设施，伊朗似乎仍然拥有大量这种无人机。

It seems like Iran still has tons of these drones no matter how many times we bomb their arsenals and drone manufacturing facilities.

现在看来似乎无路可走，但这一点或许反而会变成积极因素。

Now it looks like there's no way out, but that again may turn to a positive.

仅仅因为我们看不到，并不意味着它不会发生或不能发生。

Just because we can't see it doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.

所以，如果我感到乐观，为什么不干脆大举买入呢？

So why not just buy buy buy if I'm feeling sanguine?

哦，不。

Oh, no.

为什么我们昨天把钱投入教堂信托基金运作，今天却一分都没投？

Why do we put money for the to work for the Chapel Trust yesterday, but nothing today?

因为仅仅基于逆向思维进行投资，是无法走得太远的。

Because investing purely on the basis of being contrarian is not something that can get you too far.

你需要一个有意义的催化剂来扭转局势，而且你需要比我们现在所处的状况更加超卖，才能把更多资金投入市场。

You need a meaningful catalyst to turn things around, and you need to be even more oversold than we currently find ourselves to put more money to work.

让我给你一个经典的例子：英伟达。

Let me give you a classic example, NVIDIA.

这是一家公司，全球市值最大的公司，目前其市盈率竟然低于谢尔曼威廉姆斯公司。

Now here's a company, the largest company in the world, which currently has a price to earnings multiple that's actually lower than Sherman Williams.

没错。

That's right.

历史上增长最快、最富裕、管理最好的企业之一，其股价现在却比一家油漆公司还便宜。

One of the fastest growing, wealthiest, best run enterprises in history has a stock that's now cheaper than a paint company.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

这种情况可能会持续到周一，那时它可能还会更便宜。

That could be until Monday when it turns out that it's even cheaper still.

这就是逆向投资的问题。

That's the problem with contrary investing.

随着市场继续下跌，情况可能会变得更加逆向。

It can get even more contrary as the market continues its way down.

听好了。

Look.

总有一天，我们会弄清楚我们下跌的具体原因。

One day, there'll be a conclusion to the very specific reason why we're going down.

但我们不知道什么时候会发生。

We don't know when.

我们可以看到，在事情发生之前，我们肯定还会继续下跌，这使得留在这里很危险，但对我来说，离开更危险。

We can look the we can definitely go lower until it happens, And that makes it dangerous to stay, but to me, more dangerous to leave.

这关乎在找到解决方案之前承受痛苦。

It's about taking pain until there's a resolution.

如果你现在退出，你就像是在赌，就像我们过去看到的市场所有那些糟糕时刻一样，你能在股价反弹前重新进场。

And if you leave now, you're betting like like all the other miserable times in the market that we've seen, you'll be able to get right back in before the stocks were bound.

当然。

So sure.

我让市场自己走，它可能下跌五成、十成。

I let the market it could fall five, ten.

它甚至可能下跌百分之十五。

It could even fall 15%.

如果因为油价导致局势彻底失控，这是有可能的，尤其是如果我们下周派地面部队介入的话。

If things totally spin out of control because of oil, it's a possibility, especially if we bring in ground troops next week.

但仅仅因为跌幅还没那么大就撤资，历史告诉我们，你应该有比这更好的理由。

But to pull your money out now, simply because we aren't down that much, history says you should have a better reason than that.

除了一次——大衰退之外，每次市场回调时做出这种决定都是错误的。

It's been a bad call for every correction except one, the great recession.

尽管这次油价冲击很严重，但远比不上当年动摇我们国家、关闭了我们所熟知的一些最大公司的金融危机。

And as bad as this oil shock is, it doesn't come close to the financial crisis that rocked our country and closed some of the biggest companies that we've ever known.

我喜欢说，总有一个更合适的市场存在。

I like to say there's always a more market somewhere.

我向你保证，我会在这里的《疯狂金钱》节目里为你找到它。

I promise I'll find it just for you right here on Med Money.

我是吉姆·克雷默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

周一见。

See you Monday.

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克雷默个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将克雷默的任何观点视为特定的投资建议或遵循特定策略的明确诱导，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克雷默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以以许多不同的形式展现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，而且

Life is short, and

要想成就大事，就必须有远大的志向。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC变革者与实力人物。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

新集数每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.