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是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开创先河的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最
One of my
喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二新集上线，各大播客平台均可收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
我的目标很简单：让你赚钱。
My mission is simple, to make you money.
我致力于为所有投资者创造公平的竞争环境。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市存在，我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
钱，现在就开始赚。
Man money starts now.
嘿，我是克莱默。
Hey, I'm Cramer.
欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Welcome to Mad Money.
欢迎来到克拉默的节目，我确实交朋友。
Welcome to Cramer, I do make friends.
嘿，我只是想在这里赚点钱。
Hey, I'm just trying to make a couple bucks here.
我的工作不仅是教育，还要带来一些娱乐。
My job is not just to educate, but do some entertaining.
所以请拨打180743。
So call me 180743.
在推特上关注我：Jim Cramer。
Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
股票下跌有各种各样的原因。
Stocks go down for all sorts of reasons.
有些是好的，有些是坏的。
Some good, some bad.
最近，我们经历了太多负面消息。
Lately, we've had a lot of bad.
今晚，我想把一些事情说清楚。
And tonight, I wanna straighten some things out.
我不是要告别，只是想说明一些出了问题的事情，让你明白是什么导致了许多好东西下跌。
Not to say goodbye, but only just to describe some things that have gone wrong so you understand what's causing a lot of good stuff to go down.
这为什么重要？
Why does that matter?
因为负面的报道会让个人抛售优质股票，而通常他们应该买入更多，或者至少保持不动。
Because a bad tape causes individuals to dump great stocks, usually when they should be buying more or at least standing pat.
我知道很多人非常担忧。
I know a lot of people are getting very worried.
战争已经耗尽了他们的判断力。
The war has sapped their thinking.
总统不断声称谈判进展顺利，但伊朗方面却毫无回应，这造成了真正的悲观情绪，给市场蒙上了一层黑云。
The endless attempts by the president tell us the negotiations are going so well, only to hear nothing from the Iranians has caused a real gloom that has put a black cloud over the market.
正是这样的时刻，让我写下了《如何在任何市场中赚钱》。
Moments like these are why I wrote How to Make Money in Any Market.
因为创造财富的关键在于识别赢家，然后在像现在这样的时期坚持持有它们。
Because the the key to create wealth creation is identifying winners and then crucially sticking with them through periods like right now.
在其他人被误导卖出，或认为游戏已经 rigged，或游戏已经结束时，依然坚持持有。
Sticking with them when everyone else is fooled into selling or thinks the game is rigged or the game is over.
事实并非如此。
It's not.
今天，我们看到了一丝理性。
Today, we saw a bit of rationality.
油价上涨了5美元。
Oil went up $5.
道琼斯指数仍然上涨了50点。
The Dow still managed to gain 50 points.
其他指数起初表现强劲，但随后失去了涨幅，标普500下跌了0.39%，纳斯达克下跌了0.73%。
The other averages after starting relatively strong only gave up their gains with the S and P dipping point 39% and the Nasdaq point 73%.
横向交易必须与石油挂钩，比例为100%。
The lateral must, trades a 100% with oil.
你知道，我认为在石油如此波动的情况下，股市下跌20%是非常合理的。
And you know, I think that 20% decline with this much oil is very reasonable for stocks.
真艰难。
Tough.
不过，我们确实看到一些表现出色的个股，它们上周被重创，这次却强劲反弹。
Now we did see some terrific duo versus a bunch of stocks rallied that were crushed last week.
但事实上，我们正身处一个强大的熊市中，至少对许多科技股而言，稍微一点冲击就足以让它们再度下跌。
But the fact is we're in the grips of a powerful bear market, at least for many tech stocks, and it doesn't take much to knock these down at all.
我想先聊聊网络安全。
I wanna start with cybersecurity.
是的。
Hey.
我一整天都在听这事儿，但我没听到任何人说对了。
I heard about it all day and not I I didn't hear about anybody getting it right.
所以让我说明一下，这并不是出于自大。
So let me just I'm not it's not out of hubris.
我只是需要解释一下。
I just have to explain.
有一家私营公司。
There's a private company.
它叫Anthropic。
It's called Anthrop.
他们正在开发一种具有无限制自主能力的AI模型，理论上可能拥有强大的网络安全能力。
They're developing an AI model with unchecked agentic abilities that theoretically could have tremendous cybersecurity powers.
鉴于Claude的强大性能，市场认为Anthropic的这一新产品将对两大领先的网络安全股票——Palo Alto Networks和CrowdStrike——造成毁灭性打击。
Given the strength of Claude, the market believes this new offering from Anthropic will be devastating for the two preeminent cybersecurity stocks, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike.
而我们幸运地（或不幸地）在当天持有这两家公司股票，作为教堂信托的一部分。
Both of which we fortunately or unfortunately, upon the day, own for the Chapel Trust.
一段时间以来，人们似乎认为，有了Anthropic的新代理，我们可能根本不需要传统的网络安全了。
For a while, people seem to be under the impression that with Anthropic's new agents, we might not need traditional cybersecurity at all.
这完全是错误的。
Now that is just dead wrong.
事实上，人工智能的兴起应该是一个顺风。
In reality, the rise of AI should be a tailwind.
这意味着对Palo Alto和CrowdStrike有利，因为同样的AI代理可以被黑客编程，轻易地控制你的网络。
That means good for Palo Alto and CrowdStrike because the same AI agents can be programmed by hackers to take over your network very easily.
它们才是漏洞所在。
They are the vulnerability.
如果没有传统网络安全的帮助，你会比以往任何时候都更脆弱。
Without the help of traditional cybersecurity, you're more vulnerable than ever.
CrowdStrike的首席执行官乔治·库尔茨上周三做客节目时也表达了同样的观点。
George Kurtz, the CEO of CrowdStrike, said as much when he came on the show last Wednesday.
我记得听他讲话时，他说：你看，这对我们真的很有利。
I remember listening to him, and he was saying, look, you know, this is really good for us.
一直以来，乔治都对我们坦诚相待。
Now George has been straight with us all along.
什么？
What?
你突然就开始撒谎了？
You like suddenly start lying?
你不会这么做的。
You don't do that.
尼凯什·阿罗拉呢？他怎么样？
Nikesh Arora, how about him?
Palo Alto的CEO，他上节目已经很久了。
The CEO of Palo Alto, he's been on for ages.
他最近只是买了股票，与其说他发表了什么声明，不如说他在周五的公开市场上买了价值一千万美元的自家股票。
He just bought well, he didn't have to put input a much a statement as much as he bought $10,000,000 worth of his own stock in the open market on Friday.
我不认为一个CEO会花一千万美元买自己公司的股票，如果他认为AI是对商业模式的生存威胁的话。
I don't think a CEO would buy $10,000,000 worth of stock if he thought AI was an existential threat to the business model.
如果Anthropic要毁掉他的公司，他会这么做吗？
Would he be doing that if anthropic was gonna wipe his company out?
我不是说这些股票会立刻反弹回去。
I'm not saying these stocks should go right back up.
这个市场太难了，不可能那样。
It's too hard a market for that.
我只是想说，现在你知道它们为什么会下跌了。
I am saying now you know at least why they went down.
接下来，我们要谈谈内存股票。
Next, we're gonna talk memory stocks.
哦，大家都已经放弃这些股票了。
Oh, everyone's given up on those.
对吧？
Right?
上周，我们了解到谷歌的一项技术可能让计算机使用更少的内存。
Last week, we learned that Google is something that could make it possible for computers to use less memory.
尽管这可能属实，也可能不属实，但它已经彻底摧毁了整个板块。
While this may or may not be true, it destroyed the entire cohort.
迈克·隆奇克在西部数字桑德斯，天啊，被彻底击垮了。
Mike Ronchik at West Digital Sanders, wow, getting obliterated.
惨状不断持续。
Carnage is nonstop.
渠道商。
Channel house.
我真希望谷歌的内存设备杀手能有点分量，但我根本不信。
I wish that there was some gravitas to Google's memory device killer though because I'm not buying it.
为什么？
Why?
因为谷歌在宣布时股价下跌了。
Because Google was down when it was announced.
如果这真是真的，谷歌股价应该上涨，而不是下跌。
If this were for real, Google stock should reward instead of going down.
不过，内存股在上周之前已经涨了太多，本就该回调了。
Still, the memory stocks were up so much going into last week that they were due for a pullback.
记住，它们曾飙升至极点。
Remember, they went parabolic.
我们对飙升走势怎么看？
What do we think about parabolic moves?
嘘。
Boo.
嘘。
Boo.
但如果这演变成熊市，它们显然还没跌完。
But if this turns into a bear market, they're clearly not done going down.
好吧。
Alright.
我再给你举一个例子，这个更复杂一些。
Let me give you one more example, and this one's more complex.
那些典型集体诉讼律师提起的诉讼，目的是从可能负有也可能不负有责任的企业身上榨取巨额资金。
The lawsuits brought by the typical class action lawyers to extract big money out of enterprises enterprises that may or may not be responsible for bad things.
上周，Meta连续输掉了两场官司。
Meta lost two cases in a row last week.
一起发生在新墨西哥州，判决指出Meta将利润置于安全之上。
One in New Mexico, which said, among other things, that Meta prioritized profit over safety.
另一起发生在加利福尼亚州，判决认为Meta和谷歌存在疏忽，因为他们未能警告用户其平台的成瘾性。
And another in California that said Meta and Google were negligent because they failed to warn users about the addictive nature of their platforms.
声称对社交媒体上瘾的原告获得了600万美元赔偿，其中70%的赔偿责任由Meta承担。
The planet who claimed to be addicted to social media was rewarded with $6,000,000, with Meta responsible for 70 of the damages.
这两起案件都是在州法院审理，而非联邦法院。
Both were tried in state, not federal courts.
市场不知道该如何应对这些诉讼。
The marketplace doesn't know how to handle lawsuits.
让我为你介绍一下接下来会发生什么。
So let me give you a primer on what's gonna happen here.
首先，可以说，这些判决导致Meta的市值损失了约2000亿美元。
First, arguably, Meta lost about $200,000,000,000 in market capitalization of these verdicts.
新墨西哥州的判决金额为3.75亿美元，看起来确实极具毁灭性。
The size of the New Mexico verdict, 375,000,000, seemed really devastating.
加利福尼亚州的案件让人们认为，Meta现在会成为任何能证明自己沉迷社交媒体的年轻人的猎物。
California case made people think that Meta would now be a honeypot for any young person who can demonstrate social media addiction.
这个案件的特殊之处在于，它触及了第230条。
Special notion of the case, it got around section two thirty.
这是所有我的发布者都享有的独特保护，通过攻击内容制作的过程来实现。
That's the unique protection that all my publishers have by attacking the process of how content is made.
原告手中有大量可以反复使用的、极具吸引力的邮件，而其中一些内容在陪审团看来非常糟糕。
Plaintiffs have juicy emails that can be reused endlessly, and and some of this stuff looks very bad to a jury.
这两起案件都给人一种印象，即原告可以凭借这些邮件横扫一切。
Both cases gave the appearance that the plaintiffs can run the table with the emails.
但这些邮件背后有其上下文背景，而这种背景将在上诉阶段让Meta更容易赢得这些案件。
But there's a there's context to the messages, and that context will make it much easier for Meta to win these cases when it comes to appeal.
我知道，这两场失利对大量逃离的股东来说是毁灭性的。
Now I know that these two losses were devastating to the shareholders who fled in droves.
但我一生都在关注这类诉讼，我可以告诉你，当这些案件从这封信出发而非在各州进入联邦法院时，有很大可能性会被推翻。
But I followed these kinds of lawsuits all my life, and I can tell you that when these cases get to the federal courts from this letter rather than in the states, there's a very good chance it's gonna be overturned.
为什么？
Why?
首先，被告非常令人同情，这一点能引起普通法官的共鸣，当然也一定能打动陪审团，但在联邦上诉层面，陪审团将不起任何作用，而这正是我认为这些案件最终会去的地方。
First of all, the defendants are incredibly sympathetic, something that appeals to ordinary judges, and certainly, definitely to the juries, but they will play no role at the federal appellate level, where is where I think these cases are going.
没有陪审团。
No jury.
最终，当你因抑郁而起诉社交媒体公司时，你所拥有的只是表面现象。
At the end of the day, when you sue social media companies for your depression, you have all you look.
你最终必须证明这是Meta的过错。
You're gonna eventually have to prove that it was Meta's fault.
这非常困难。
Very hard to do.
每个人都有大量可能导致抑郁的潜在原因。
Any individual has a ton of potential reasons to be depressed.
这不像大烟草公司。
This is not like big tobacco.
我们都清楚吸烟会导致肺癌，就连烟草公司自己也几十年来一直否认这一点。
We all knew smoking causes lung cancer, including tobacco companies even as they denied the leakage for decades.
Meta可以证明它并不是唯一的诱因。
Meta can can prove that it wasn't the only precipitous.
因此，每个案件都必须单独处理，这对原告方来说成本太高了。
So each case will have to be done on the merge, and that's too expensive for the planners part to do.
我知道这两个案件看起来对Meta的生存至关重要。
I know these two cases seem existential to the health of of Meta.
但在你开始相信这一点之前，想想强生公司和滑石粉致癌案的股票发生了什么，当时原告声称婴儿爽身粉中含有石棉并导致癌症。
But before you begin to believe that, remember what happened with the stock of Johnson and Johnson and the Tau cases, where plaintiffs claimed there was asbestos in baby powder that caused cancer.
原告提出了备忘录，显示强生公司内部有人知道石棉的存在。
The plaintiffs brought up memos that showed there were people at J and J who knew about the asbestos.
被告辩称，公司内部尽职的员工曾就滑石粉中是否含有石棉提出过疑问。
The defendants argued the diligent people within the company had to ask about whether there was asbestos in talc.
它将这些备忘录作为反方观点呈现。
It presented the memos as devil advocate notions.
与此同时，此外，要证明强生公司是恶意行为者变得越来越困难，因此它开始赢得大量案件。
Meanwhile, moreover, it became harder and harder to prove that J and J was a bad actor, so then it began to win a lot of cases.
自明确强生的婴儿爽身粉并非烟草以来，其股价已上涨了约100点。
The stock has moved up about 100 points, 100 points since it became clear that J and J's baby powder was not tobacco.
抛售时机糟糕，买入时机良好。
Bad time to sell, good time to buy.
我打赌这些针对Meta的诉讼也会以同样的方式发展，这还没算上言论自由辩护——这一辩护同样极其有力。
I bet these meta lawsuits play out the same way, and that's without even getting into the free speech defense, which is also incredibly strong.
这就是为什么我认为基于这些诉讼的抛售行为很奇怪、错误，甚至荒谬。
That's why I thought the sell off based on these lawsuits was strange, wrong, maybe even ridiculous.
别让你对Instagram对年轻人造成的伤害的憎恨蒙蔽了你发现的买入机会。
Don't let your hatred of Instagram can do to young people blind you to the buying opportunity.
记住，人们也有权退出。
Remember, people have the right to log off too.
要知道，人们有第一修正案赋予的权利，可以选择不看，没有人强迫你刷社交媒体。
Know, there's like a first amendment right to not watch and no one is forcing you to scroll through social media.
虽然对象不同，但现在的市场太糟糕了，所有坏事情都被进一步放大。
It's different people, but this is a horrible market, and all the bad things are made worse.
让我给你总结一下重点。
Let me give you the bottom line.
有时候，股票会因为错误的理由或完全荒谬的理由下跌。
Sometimes stocks sell off for bad reasons or fully bogus reasons.
在这些时刻，我宁愿买入CrowdStrike或Meta的股票，而不是卖出。
And at those moments, I'd rather be a buyer than a seller of CrowdStrike or Meta.
在某个时候，我也会愿意认可内存股，但它们还需要再冷却一段时间，我才愿意冒险，因为现在的股市实在太糟糕了。
At some point, I'd be willing to bless the memory stocks too, but they need to cool off some more before I'm willing to stick my neck out because this is such a it's become such a horrible stock market.
请接通佛罗里达的蒂芙尼。
Let's go to Tiffany in Florida, please.
蒂芙尼。
Tiffany.
太棒了。
Booyah.
嗨，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
嗨，蒂芙尼。
Hi, Tiffany.
你怎么样？
How are you?
我很好。
I'm good.
鉴于目前航空业发生的一切，比如旅行需求变化和全国范围内的 TSA 延误，你觉得捷蓝航空的处境如何？这仍然是一个高风险的领域吗？
So with everything happening in the airline industry right now, like travel demand shifts and TSA delays across the country, Do you think JetBlue's position well here, or is this still a risky space to be in?
对我来说风险太高了。
Too risky for me.
我知道下跌四成看起来好像……
I know down four seems like it you know, it look.
这就像掷骰子，我不喜欢掷骰子。
It's a dice roll, and I don't like dice rolls.
我手上有不少股票，它们的基本面我觉得更好。
I've got a lot of stocks that I think the fundamentals are better than.
所以我不打算参与这个。
So I'm gonna pass on that one.
那得问问德克萨斯的保罗，保罗？
How about Paul in Texas, Paul?
太棒了，吉姆。
Booyah, Jim.
太棒了。
Booyah.
是的。
Yeah.
我想感谢你三周前做的那个关于可能受人工智能影响的公司的节目。
I'd like to thank you for the segment you did about three weeks ago in reference to companies that could be hurt by AI.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
我一直在关注一家公司，它不断浮现在我脑海中。
And I've been looking at a company, and it keeps coming across my mind.
所以我决定喊你一声，看看你能不能给我更多信息，判断这家公司是会被AI伤害还是受益。
So I figured I'd holler at you, see if you could give me any more information, whether they would be hurt or helped by AI.
这家公司是自动数据处理公司，一个
The company's automatic data processing, a
呃呃呃，我得告诉你，保罗。
d d d I I have to tell you, Paul.
这是个很好的问题，因为我上周末专门研究了那些我认为正被AI摧毁的公司。
This is a great question because I spent the weekend going over the ones that I think are really being killed.
我认为它们不容易被取代。
I don't think they can can be easily taken on.
你被取代是因为当你面对国税局时，你需要它们。
You're taken down because you need them when you go in front of the IRS.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
这无关紧要，保罗。
It doesn't matter, Paul.
人们已经认定这家公司可以像工资单一样处理。
People have decided that this company can be just like paychecks.
所以他们只是觉得人们可以编写程序来提供更多信息。
So they just think that people can create programs that tell you more.
而且我也知道，当然了，他们认为失业率会降低，导致拥有工资单的人变少。
And I've got and also, of course, they think that people the unemployment's gonna make it so that there'll be fewer people having paychecks.
我真想说你应该买下它，但我见过他们是怎么对待工资单的，他们也能对自动数据做同样的事。
I want so much to say you should buy it, but I've seen what they did to paychecks and they can do it to automatic data.
好吧。
Alright.
听好了。
Look.
有时候股票会因为毫无根据的理由下跌，而此时我更愿意成为CrowdStrike或Meta的买家而不是卖家，但最糟糕的情况是，如果市场继续下跌，那就完了。
Sometimes stocks sell off for bogus reasons, and then I'd rather be a buyer than a seller in CrowdStrike or Meta right here, but the worst to end or else this market's gonna keep going lower.
你需要油价下跌。
You need oil down.
只要油价继续上涨，任何股票都不可能大幅反弹。
No stock is gonna rally big as long as oil is going higher.
今年对于ARM控股公司来说是崭新的一年，因为该公司上周发布了自家的AI芯片，我将与首席执行官坐下来了解这次发布的新进展。
Now it's a new year for ARM Holdings if the company unveiled its own AI chip last week, and I'm sitting down with the CEO to get the latest on the launch.
说到发布，SpaceX是今年考虑上市的几家知名私营公司之一。
And speaking of launch, SpaceX is one several high profile private, companies considering a public debut this year.
我正在分析目前IPO的现状，以及考虑到人们更想逃离市场而非进入市场，这可能并不是一个理想的上市时机。
I'm breaking down where things stand right now with the IPO and how it may not be that well timed given the fact that people wanna run from the market rather than go to it.
虽然Solutions可能不是一个家喻户晓的名字，但我很高兴告诉你，为什么这家特种化学品公司值得你关注。
And solutions may not be a household name, but I'm glad I'm telling you why this specialty chemical company deserves to be on your radar.
请继续关注克拉默。
So stay with Cramer.
不要错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一分钟。
Don't miss a second of mad money.
在X上关注吉姆·克莱默。
Follow at Jim Cramer on x.
有问题吗？
Have a question?
给克莱默发推文。
Tweet Cramer.
标签#疯狂提及。
Hashtag mad mentions.
发送邮件至madmoney@CNBC.com给吉姆，或拨打180743联系我们。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
错过了什么吗？
Missed something?
前往madmoney.cnbc.com。
Head to mad money dot CNBC dot com.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开创先河的女性正在改变格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以许多不同的形式体现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的变革者与实力人物节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
每周二更新新一期节目，各大播客平台均可收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
上周我们收到了来自ARM控股公司的重大消息。
We got this huge development last week from ARM Holdings.
我很高兴能回来继续讨论这件事。
I'm so glad we can go back and talk about it.
它是半导体行业中最重要的公司之一。
It's one of the most important companies in the semiconductor industry.
在大部分发展历程中，ARM开发了关键的芯片架构，然后将其授权给各类半导体厂商。
For most of its history, ARM developed key chip architecture and then licensed it to various semiconductor market.
他们每颗芯片赚取少量利润。
They make a little bit of money per.
但上周，他们发布了首款专为数据中心、特别是为AgenTic AI工作负载设计的自研CPU。
But last week, they unveiled their first in house CPU for the data center, especially for AgenTic AI workloads.
消息公布后，股价最初大幅上涨，尽管现在部分回吐了涨幅，包括今天下跌了5%，但今年至今仍上涨了25%。
The stock initially roared on the news, although it's now giving back some of what hasn't, including a 5% pullback today, but it's still up 25% year to date.
这对现在的科技股来说非常不寻常。
That's very unusual for tech now.
ARM认为，其新的芯片业务在五年内年销售额有望达到150亿美元。
ARM believes its new chip business could reach $15,000,000,000 in annual sales within five years.
我认为实际规模可能会更高，因为Met已经是其首个重要客户。
I think it could be in excess of that with Met as the first major customer already.
简而言之，这不再只是关于从使用其技术的芯片制造商那里收取专利费的故事。
In short, this is no longer just a story about collecting royalties from chip makers that use their technology.
这家公司希望获得更大份额的利润。
The company wants a larger piece of the pie.
所以，让我们再次连线Renee Haas。
So let's check back back in with Renee Haas.
就我而言，他是这家全新ARM芯片公司的CEO，我想借此更好地了解他的新芯片。
He's the CEO of a brand new armhole as far as I'm concerned to get a better sense of what his new chip is.
欢迎再次回到曼尼货币。
It's just welcome back to Man Money.
谢谢，吉姆。
Thank you, Jim.
很高兴能亲自到场。
It's great to be here in person.
是的。
Yes.
确实如此。
Indeed.
你能来我真是太高兴了，雷妮。
I'm so thrilled you're here, Renee.
我在GTC之后和你聊过，当时我想，哇。
I talked with you out of GTC, and I thought, wow.
你知道吗？
You know what?
他对咱们正在做的事情感到非常兴奋。
He's pretty excited about the stuff we're doing.
果然，正常的业务进展得非常顺利。
And sure enough, yeah, the the regular business is going great guns.
但你把整个模式完全颠倒过来了。
But you have turned the model upside down.
这是一个新的部门，对吧？
This is a new arm, isn't it?
这确实是一个新的部门。
It is a new arm.
你知道吗？我们几周前在GTC见过面。
You know, we met at GTC a couple weeks ago.
我们上周发布了公告，真正重新定位了公司。
We had our announcement last week where we, really have repositioned the company.
我们现在是一家不同的公司了。
We're, we're a different company now.
正如你所说，我们一直以IP授权闻名，这项业务将继续下去。
We have been known as you said, for IP licensing, that business is gonna continue.
事实上，这项业务进展得非常好。
In fact, that business is doing great.
没错。
Right.
但我们发布了我们的第一个产品。
But we announced our first product.
这个产品意味着什么？
And what does that product mean?
我们现在开始销售芯片，这是我们的第一个产品。
We are now selling chips, and it was our first product.
你们自己的芯片。
Your own chips.
我们自己的芯片，专为AgenTic工作负载设计的ARM AGI CPU。
Our own chip, the ARM AGI CPU built for AgenTic workloads.
所以需求从一开始就非常旺盛。
So the demand has been great right off the bat.
事实上，自从我们发布以来，电话都快被打爆了。
In fact, since we announced it, we've had the phone has been ringing off the hook.
这真是太棒了。
It's been amazing.
我的意思是，你得跟大家解释一下。
Well, I mean, tell people, I guess, you have to explain to people.
我们现在都知道GPU了。
We all know GPUs now.
这些都是从黄仁勋那里学来的。
We've learned that from Jensen.
我们了解CPU，因为那是x86，是英特尔和AMD的天下。
We know CPUs because that's x 86 because that's Intel and AMD.
你是谁？
Who are you?
所以在一个需要移动令牌的世界里，对吧？
So in a world where tokens need to be moved, right?
如果你想想智能体，智能体是做什么的？
If you think about agents, what do agents do?
它们移动GPU或加速器生成的令牌。
They move the tokens that the GPU or the accelerator creates.
这是CPU的工作。
That's CPU work.
这需要大量的CPU工作。
It's a lot of CPU work.
这就是为什么CPU需求正在爆炸式增长。
That's why CPU demand is exploding.
这些CPU你需要做什么？
What do you need with these CPUs?
你需要能效。
You want power efficiency.
你需要在低功耗下获得最佳性能。
You want the best performance at low power.
我们在这方面很有名。
We're known for that.
我们涉足智能手机领域。
We're in smartphones.
所以，你当然在这方面会很出色。
So, of course, you're gonna be great at that.
因此，ARM AGI CPU在相同功耗下性能是x86的两倍。
So the ARM AGI CPU is two times the performance at the same power compared to x 86.
这就是我们认为它会表现优异的原因。
That's why we think it's gonna do great.
好的。
Okay.
我们很少看到如此显著的新入局者。
So very rarely do we see such a stark new player.
我猜他们不可能取消对英特尔和AMD的订单。
They can't cancel their Intel and their AMD orders, I imagine.
但如果他们更热、效率更低，而你可以提供更好的选择，谁还会再和他们合作呢？
But who would re up with them if they're if they're hotter, don't and not as efficient if they can go with you?
我们认为会有巨大的需求转向我们的技术。
We think there's gonna be huge demand that's gonna shift over to our technology.
会有新的设计采用ARM架构。
There'll be new designs that'll use ARM.
这正是我们与Meta、还有OpenAI所讨论的那类合作。
That's the one that with Meta, also with OpenAI that we talked about.
但同时，吉姆，我们是以行业标准机架交付这些产品。
But also, Jim, we're delivering these in industry standard racks.
这意味着什么？
What does that mean?
原本可能购买x86机架来增加容量的客户，现在会说：你知道吗？
Customers who might have bought an x 86 rack to increase capacity will now say, you know what?
我要购买这些ARM AGI CPU机架，因为同样的功耗下，它们的性能是两倍。
I'm gonna buy these ARM AGI CPU racks because, again, at the same power, they're two times the performance.
因此，我们预计需求会因此大幅提升，这对我们来说是全新的情况。
So we expect demand to just pick up as a result of that, which is brand new for us.
但让我扮演一下反对者。
But let me play devil's advocate.
你们有一些非常棒的客户。
You've got some great customers.
如果我能和你们竞争，我会非常生气。
I'd be pretty darn angry at you if I could compete against you.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，我们已经听过好几次这种说法了。
You know, we've heard that a few times.
首先，我认为这是一个非常大的市场。
And first off, I would say it's a really large market.
这个市场远远没有得到充分开发。
The market is very, very underserved.
人们渴望ARM技术。
People want ARM technology.
我举一个例子。
Give you one of the examples.
我们宣布了客户SAP。
We announced a customer SAP.
SAP如今在亚马逊上做了很多工作，但他们非常希望能在亚马逊上使用我们的芯片，同时也在自己的站点上使用。
SAP today, they do a lot of work on Amazon, but they would love to be able to do work on Amazon using our chips at Amazon and also on their own site.
他们今天还做不到这一点。
They can't do that today.
但现在他们可以使用ARM AGI CPU做到了。
They can now using ARM AGI CPU.
所以这是一种最终状态，云上和本地都将有业务。
So it's an end condition where there's gonna be business in the cloud and also, on prem.
每个人都有大量的商机。
Plenty of business for everybody.
那像谷歌、亚马逊这样的公司，它们自己制造芯片，情况又如何呢？
How about these companies, like Google, like, Amazon that are making their own chips?
你们在那里能扮演什么角色呢？
Where where could you play a role there?
再说谷歌就是一个很好的例子。
Again, and Google is a great example.
对吧？
Right?
人们会看谷歌，说他们自己制造芯片。
People will look at Google and say, oh, they make their own chips.
他们永远不会从你们这里购买。
They'll never buy from you.
是的。
Right.
但这并不是零和游戏。
But it's not a zero sum game.
我们来看看GPU。
Let's look at GPUs.
谷歌做了TPU。
Google does a TPU.
他们购买了大量的GPU，同一型号。
They buy a lot of GPUs, same model.
他们基于ARM的Axion设计了一款芯片，但在某些应用领域，我们的CPU在可用性、功耗和尺寸方面可能具有很大优势。
They do a chip based on ARM based Axion, but there may be application areas where our CPU, both in terms of availability, power size dimensions may be a great area.
因此，我预计吉姆，我们的客户亚马逊、谷歌、微软，即使设计了自己的芯片，也会继续这样做。
So I expect Jim, that our customers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, designed their own chips continue to do so.
但我认为他们也是这款产品的绝佳潜在客户。
But I think they're also great candidates for for this product.
如果他们不想购买，那也没关系。
And if they don't wanna buy it, that's fine too.
这是一个巨大的市场。
There's a huge market.
明白了。
Got it.
现在，我希望你们可能是首批进入美国并在本地生产这些产品的大型公司之一。
Now, I am hopeful that you may be, one of the first big companies to go into The US to make them here.
我知道目前是台积电，但你们有没有可能成为我们国家希望引进的大型半导体公司？
I understand right now, Taiwan Semi, but is there a chance that you could be the large the large semiconductor company that we want in our country?
我们之前已经发布过一些公告。
We had announcements at other at day.
我们有过合作关系。
We had partnerships.
我们目前在台积电生产这些芯片，但三星也站出来表示过，嘿。
We're building this jits at TSMC, but we also had Samsung stand up and say, hey.
我们是很好的合作伙伴。
We're a great partner.
甚至连英特尔也是。
And even Intel.
对吧？
Right?
真是奇特的盟友。
Strange bedfellows.
对吧？
Right?
我们已经做了
We've done
很多与英特尔的合作。
a lot of work with Intel.
这个产品能在英特尔的平台上用英特尔技术制造吗？
Could this product be built at Intel on Intel technology?
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当然有可能。
Certainly possible.
不过目前所有生产都在台积电进行。
Although right now, it's all on TSMC.
好的。
Okay.
我不想让你觉得我在挑刺，你知道你做得太棒了。
Now I don't wanna look I I you know, I you're doing so great.
但我得提一下汽车自动驾驶。
I don't wanna I gotta mention automobile autonomous driving.
你在这方面很领先。
You're right there.
哦，百分之百。
Oh, a 100%.
我的意思是，如今驱动汽车的芯片，无论是用于自动驾驶还是仪表盘，都是基于ARM的。
I mean, the chips today that power your automobiles, whether it's around the autonomous driving or in the instrument panel, that's all ARM based.
这些是CPU。
Those are CPUs.
再举个例子，吉姆，无论是英伟达的驾驶平台还是高通的驾驶平台，它们都基于ARM CPU技术。
And again, give you an example of that, Jim, whether it's the NVIDIA drive platform or the Qualcomm drive platform, those are both based on ARM CPU technology.
现在我知道，没有哪位CEO愿意被问到下面这个问题，但股市真的变得非常糟糕。
Now I I know that no CEO wants to be asked the following question, but, the stock market's gotten really horrible.
你们公司的股价上涨了25%。
Your company's stock is up 25%.
让我这么说吧。
Let me put it like this.
你觉得你们的股价上涨是因为发生了重大转变吗？
Is that do you think your stock is up because there's a major shift?
因为其他公司只是在一遍又一遍地重复同样的事情。
Because and the other guys are just doing the same thing over and over again.
你知道，我不确定。
You know, I don't know.
你知道，我们有时会从日复一日的角度来看股价。
You know, sometimes we're looking at the stock price on a day to day basis.
这有点像每天盯着自己的心率看。
It's kinda it's kinda like looking at your heart rate on a day to day basis.
嗯，很多人戴那种Aura戒指。
Well, lot of people have that aura ring.
是的。
Yeah.
我不戴。
I don't.
实际上，正因为如此，我更关注长远的未来。
Actually, and as a result, I think about the long, long term.
对。
Right.
我们正在做正确的事，以实现业务的长期增长。
We're doing the right things to kind of grow the business in the long term.
我觉得人们已经开始注意到我们公司这一点了。
I think people are noticing that about our company.
我最喜欢看的一个数字是，我们两年前半前上市的。
The number I like to look at maybe is that we went public two and a half years ago.
当时的市值大约是500亿美元。
Market cap was about $50,000,000,000.
我记得当时在做路演，试探市场反应。
And I remember doing the roadshow testing the waters.
我们花了大量时间说服投资者，让我们值550亿美元。
We had a lot of convincing people to convince that we were 55,000,000,000.
你知道吗，软银当初以300亿美元收购了我们。
You know, SoftBank bought us for $30,000,000,000.
对。
Right.
所以两年半后的今天，我们的估值已经到了一千五百亿，不管具体是多少。
So here we are two and a half years later, the number is one fifty, whatever it is.
但我认为时间会更长。
I think longer longer than that though.
我觉得到目前为止我们还是很满意的。
I I think We're happy so far.
这正是我想给出的答案，因为很多人都很恐慌。
That's the answer kind of I actually wanna be, because a lot of people are freaking out.
蕾妮，我得告诉你，很多依赖股市养老的人看到当前的情况，我敦促他们再想得久一点。
Renee, I gotta tell you that a lot of people who are counting on the stock market for their retirement, and they see what's happening and I'm urging to think just a little bit longer.
我知道说‘别担心退休’是不对的。
I know it's not right to be able to say, listen, don't worry about retirement.
我没有那样说。
I'm not doing that.
我只是想让你想想你刚刚走过的路，以及你现在正在做的事情。
I'm just saying, think about what you just did, the the path that you just took and then what you're doing today.
这告诉我，要坚持下去。
And it says to me, hang in there.
不要放弃股票。
Don't give up on stocks.
完全同意。
Totally.
我的意思是，从短期来看，股票的表现肯定不会很好，而这一点你比任何人都清楚。
I mean, stock stocks in its micro term, and you know better than anyone, are not gonna look great.
有一句罗杰·费德勒的名言说得很好，他说自己职业生涯中赢了52%的局，却赢得了20个大满贯。
So there's a great Roger Federer quote, right, about all the points he played in his career, and he won 52%, yet he's won 20 majors.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Exactly.
正是。
Right.
那就说到这里吧。
So leave it at that.
这太完美了。
That's perfect.
这是一个很好的想法。
That is a great thought.
这是蕾妮·哈斯，她作为CEO进行了极其出色的策略调整，而且这些措施也确实取得了很好的效果。
That's Renee Has arm holding CEO with just a fantastic change in strategy, but the stuff's working really well too.
广告后我们马上回来。
Everybody's back after the break.
接下来，我们将更接近史上规模最大的IPO。
Coming up, we are drawing even closer to what are sure to be the biggest IPOs in history.
那么目前情况如何？
So where do things stand?
克拉默接下来将为你详细介绍。
Cramer is dialing up the details for you next.
是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我完全不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性们正颠覆行业格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
这是
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议：先想清楚你的顶头上司的上级需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有许许多多不同的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
说到底其实就是要相信你自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，而且
Life is short, and
要想成就大事，你就得有远大的抱负。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新集数每周二在您收听播客的任何平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
我们将要探讨一个前所未有人涉及、但我认为极其重要的议题。
We're gonna tackle something that no one's tackled, but I think it's really important.
今年早些时候，人们对潜在的首次公开募股充满期待，尤其是那些规模最大的私营公司。
Coming to this year, there was a lot of excitement for potential IPOs, some of the biggest private companies in existence.
我指的是OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceX，甚至Databricks。
I'm talking about OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and even Databricks.
三个月后，我们的处境已经大不相同了，不是吗？
Three months later, we're in a very different situation, aren't we?
这不仅是因为伊朗战争引发的石油冲击给整个股市带来了压力。
And not just because the oil shop from the Iran war has made things tough for the entire stock market.
坦率地说，2026年到目前为止对首次公开募股而言并不顺利。
Frankly, 2026 has not been a good year for IPOs, at least so far.
事实上，现在这一年对任何事情来说都开始变得糟糕了。
In fact, know, it's starting to be a bad year for anything.
根据IPO研究公司Renaissance Capital的数据，与去年同期相比，交易数量下降了三分之一，尽管这些交易总共筹集的资金多了14.3%。
According to data from Renaissance Capital, the IPO research firm, deals were down one third from the same period last year, although they've collectively raised 14.3% more money.
而且，这些已经发生的交易本身也并不特别。
And it's not just that the deals that that have happened are nothing special.
今年已经提交了55宗IPO申请，比去年同期下降了20%。
There have been 55 IPOs filed this year, down 20% from this point last year.
而近年来成功上市的公司，其股价表现也并不理想。
And the ones that have made it to the market in recent years aren't trading particularly well.
Renaissance公司有一个追踪近期IPO的ETF，该ETF在去年九月达到峰值。
Renaissance has this ETF of recent IPOs, which peaked last September.
目前它的价格较高点下跌了近28%。
It's down nearly 28% from its highs.
在我们每周日从IPO市场收到的这份常规简报中，Renaissance Capital的创始人兼首席执行官比尔·史密斯——他在这方面非常在行——指出，去年这个时候市场感觉就已经很糟糕了。
In this regular Sunday bulletin that we get from the IPO market, Renaissance Capital founder and CEO, Bill Smith, who's really good at this stuff, pointed out that the that the things felt pretty bad at this point last year.
我们当时正处在解放日关税公告发布前夕。
We were in the run up to the liberation day tariff announcements.
市场正在暴跌。
The market was tanking.
IPO的核心项目勉强冲过了终点线。
The core of IPO barely made it across the finish line.
但解放日后，情况好转了。
But then things got better after liberation day.
市场回暖，我们在2025年才迎来了一个出色的IPO年份。
The market recovered, and we only had a great year for IPOs in 2025.
重要的是要记住，虽然我并不明确这么说，但我们今年可能会重现同样的走势。
The important thing to keep that in mind is that the possibility, although I'm not definitely not saying it, that we'll see the same trajectory this year.
这种情况是有可能发生的。
It could happen.
你知道，我们可能会迎来爆发，但前提是战争必须得到某种解决。
You know, we can burst out, but we have to have some resolution to the war.
话虽如此，大家期待的那些超级IPO项目，目前仍然按计划进行。
That said, the mega IPOs that everyone was looking forward to, well, they they're still on track.
我只是不确定我们是否真的需要它们。
I I just don't know if we want them.
上周，我有机会与OpenAI的首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔交谈。
Last week, I had the chance to speak with Sarah Fryer, the CFO of OpenAI.
当我问起公司的IPO计划时，她说OpenAI正在‘开始构建这一结果’。
And when I asked her about the company's IPO plans, she said that I that OpenAI is, quote, starting to build that outcome, end quote.
不过，他们刚刚完成了1200亿美元的私募融资，公司不再面临资金压力。
Then again, they just raised a $120,000,000,000 in private fundraising round, so the company is no longer has a gun to it.
没有必要上市。
Doesn't need to come public.
听起来OpenAI想先把内部事务理顺，因为有了这笔新资金，他们完全可以等一等。
It sounds like OpenAI wants to get its house in order because coming public with all that fresh cash, they can afford to wait.
现在还不必急于上市。
They don't have to go in yet.
然而，已有迹象表明，OpenAI在人工智能领域的主要竞争对手——可能是当今全球最受关注的公司Anthropic——可能更快上市。
However, there have been any indications that OpenAI's chief rival in the AI space, probably the most hyped company on earth at this very moment, Anthropic, could come sooner.
上周有报道称，Anthropic可能在十月上市。
Last week, there were reports that Anthropic could have happened in October.
据称，Club的母公司每周都在打击一批现有的软件股票，正希望筹集超过600亿美元。
The parent company of Club, which seems to destroy a new group of existing software stocks on a weekly basis, is reportedly hoping to raise more than 60,000,000,000.
炒作与攻击。
Hype and attack.
炒作与攻击。
Hype and attack.
这就是他们的策略。
That's their strategy.
但最近我们得到的最重要消息都关于SpaceX。
But the biggest news we've gotten lately is all about SpaceX.
那是埃隆·马斯克的公司。
That's Elon Musk company.
预计在未来几天内将秘密提交IPO申请，并计划最早在六月中旬进行发售。
It's expected to file confidentially for an IPO in the next couple of days, and there's targeting off, offering as soon as mid June.
《华尔街日报》报道称，SpaceX的IPO预计筹资400亿至800亿美元。
The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX IPO is, quote, expected to raise between 40 and $80,000,000,000.
《金融时报》甚至更为具体，称SpaceX已向投资者表示，希望在首次公开募股中筹集约750亿美元，公司目标估值为1.75万亿美元。
And the Feet was even more specific, saying that SpaceX has told investors it hopes to raise roughly 75,000,000,000 its initial public offering, with the company targeting $1,750,000,000,000 valuation.
是的。
Yeah.
我们真不需要这个，简直是雪上加霜。
We really need that like a hole in the head.
通常情况下，公司上市时会拿出大约10%到20%的股份作为发行部分。
Typically, when a company comes public, they offer something like 10 to 20% of their shares as part of the deal.
但如果你看看这些公司私下市场的估值，就会发现，即使只拿出10%到20%的股份，也会导致一些规模大到当前市场根本无法消化的惊人IPO。
But if you look at the reported private market valuation for some of these companies, you quickly see the 10 to 20% of what would result in some staggering IPOs that are way too big for this particular market to absorb.
一切都变了。
Everything's changed.
所以，SpaceX的这些数据为我们提供了一些有用的背景信息。
So the SpaceX numbers give us some helpful context.
750亿美元的融资额将占该公司最近一轮融资估值1.25万亿美元的6%，但如果SpaceX真的寻求1.75万亿美元的估值，这将超过其市值的4.3%。
A $75,000,000,000 offering would represent 6% of the company's last reported fundraising round, 1,250,000,000,000.00, but it would represent more than 4.3% of the company's market cap if SpaceX is truly seeking a $1,750,000,000,000 valuation.
750亿美元的融资额仍然会是天文数字。
A $75,000,000,000 offering would still be enormous.
这将是全球历史上规模最大的IPO，超过2019年沙特阿美创下的纪录两倍以上。
The largest IPO in world history, more than double the size of the 2019 Saudi Aramco deal that currently holds the title.
事实上，2024年和2025年所有美国IPO的融资总额加起来都不到750亿美元。
In fact, all US IPOs in 2024, '25 combined raised less than 75,000,000,000.
在这个糟糕的市场环境下，市场怎么承受得了这么多资金？
How is the market gonna be able to handle all that with this this crummy market?
这些SpaceX的数据让我感到有点不安。
These SpaceX numbers have me feeling a bit nervous.
但对于如此庞大的公司来说，融资规模注定会极其巨大。
But with companies this large, the deals are gonna be gargantuan.
更糟糕的是，我对这些报道所提及的交易细节并不满意。
Worse, I'm not loving what these pieces have to say about the finer points of the deal.
当大多数公司上市时，他们会进行巡回路演，走遍全国向投资者推介业务。
When most companies come public, they do a roadshow traveling around the country, pitch investors on the businesses.
SpaceX却想反其道而行之，搞一次逆向路演。
SpaceX wants to do the reverse roadshow.
他们考虑在洛杉矶和卡纳维拉尔角的设施举办活动。
They're thinking about hosting events at their facilities in LA and Cape Cod.
哦，抱歉，是卡纳维拉尔角。
Oh, now Cape Canaveral.
对不起。
Excuse me.
另一个不寻常之处是，据称SpaceX的创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克深度参与了此次发行的诸多细节，包括决定哪些投资者能获得股份，以及承销商在交易中将承担的具体角色。
Also unusual, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk is reportedly very involved in some of the finer points of the offering, including decisions about who will be allocated shares and what specific roles the involved underwriters will have in the deal.
所有报道似乎都一致认为，马斯克的忠诚度将通过股份分配得到回报。
All the reporting seems to agree that loyalty of Musk is expected to be rewarded with the allocation of shares.
例如，他们似乎在考虑给予特斯拉股东优先待遇。
For example, they're apparently thinking about giving preferential treatment to Tesla shareholders.
马斯克还希望为个人投资者保留大量股份，这很好。
Musk also wants to reserve a big chunk of shares for individual investors, which is great.
但如果他让承销商来完成这项工作，我会更放心。
But I'd be more reassured if he was letting the underwriters do the job.
但真正让我担心的是这一点。
Here's what's really worries me though.
多个报道指出，由于这笔交易规模巨大，SpaceX和承销商正在考虑非传统的锁定期安排。
Multiple reports say that due to the sheer size of the deal, SpaceX and the underwriters are considering nontraditional lockups.
不过，一些报道内容尚不清晰。
Now some of this reporting is murky.
据称，SpaceX正在考虑要求部分投资者同意更长的锁定期，同时也考虑允许其他股东在IPO完成后立即出售股份。
SpaceX is apparently considering, asking some investors to agree to longer lockups, but also considering allowing other shareholders to sell their shares immediately if the IPO happens.
因此，当我听到SpaceX考虑一项高达750亿美元的融资，公司估值达到1.75万亿美元；当我听到公司正在积极分配股份，计划将大量份额分配给散户投资者；当我听到部分现有股东可能完全不受锁定期限制时，就不难想象这样一种情景：SpaceX的IPO按预期顺利进行，定价符合公司期望，随后大量现有股东退出，留下那些参与认购的散户投资者独自持有股票。
So when I hear SpaceX considering a massive $75,000,000,000 offering that values the company at 1,750,000,000,000.00, when I hear that the company is out actively allocating, looking to allocate a significant portion of its offering to retail investors, and when I hear that some of the existing shareholders might not have a lockup at all, it's not too far to of a leap to envision a scenario where the SpaceX IPO happens as intended at a price in the size like the company likes, then a ton of existing shareholders exit their positions, leaving retail investors who got in on the deal holding it back.
我希望不会发生这种情况，但这确实是一个可能性。
I hope that's not what happens, but it's a possibility.
还要记住，由于SpaceX现在实际上包括SpaceX和xAI，而xAI本身又涵盖了埃隆·马斯克的AI初创公司以及前身为Twitter的社交平台x，这些数字很可能变得很混乱。
Also, keep in mind that the numbers will likely be messy given that SpaceX is now actually SpaceX and x AI, which itself includes both Elon Musk's AI startup and x, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
尽管SpaceX在商业火箭发射领域可能拥有近乎垄断的有利财务状况，并且其日益增长的Starlink卫星互联网业务也非常出色，这确实是一门好生意。
While SpaceX could have some very attractive financials with a near monopoly on its rocket launch for higher business and a growing Starlink satellite Internet operation, really good piece of business there.
xAI不太可能大量烧钱，但它已经花费了数十亿美元来建设基础设施。
XAI is unlikely to burn be burning tons of cash and it it spent billions to build out the infrastructure.
这令人担忧，朋友们。
This is worrisome people.
总而言之，我们正开始获得更多关于今年这批超级IPO的细节，尤其是听起来将率先登场的巨型SpaceX交易。
The bottom line here is that we're starting to get more details on what this year's crop of mega IPOs will look like, especially the giant SpaceX deal that sounds like it will be first.
但到目前为止，我并不喜欢我所看到的一切。
And I don't love everything I'm seeing, at least so far.
我真希望市场上有足够的资金来认购所有这些交易。
And I sure wish there were enough money around to buy all these deals.
如果这种情况持续下去，闲钱可能会变得极其难找。
If this keeps up, spare money might be awful hard to come by.
记住我反复说过的话。
Remember what I've said over and over again.
什么会终结牛市？
What can kill the bull?
供给过多。
Too much supply.
这正是我所看到的即将发生的情况。
And that's what I'm seeing coming.
牛市看起来非常虚弱，对我来说病得不轻。
And the bull seems mighty on mighty in trouble, mighty sick to me.
请接通纽约的汤姆。
Let's go to Tom in New York, please.
汤姆。
Tom.
晚上好，吉姆。
Good evening, Jim.
汤姆，怎么了？
Tom, what's up?
嗨，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
周五的会议很棒。
Great meeting Friday.
谢谢。
Thank you.
哦，太感谢了，老兄。
Oh, thanks a lot, man.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好的。
Okay.
我得说，詹森可能是影响力之王，但先生您绝对是股票领域的皇帝。
And I have to say Jensen may be the king of influence, but you, sir, are definitely the emperor of equities.
哦，谢谢。
Oh, thank you.
我只是想成为那个最努力工作的人，但我很喜欢这种说法。
I just wanna be the guy who works the hardest, but I like that.
我能怎么帮您？
How can I help?
好的。
Okay.
吉姆，我今晚想问你关于网络安全的问题。
Jim, my question for you tonight is on cybersecurity.
我现在持有两家俱乐部的股票，分别是Palo Alto和CrowdStrike。
Now I have the two club holdings, Palo Alto and CrowdStrike.
但我的问题是关于一家更小的公司，Rubrik。
But my question was on a smaller one, Rubrik.
我以29美元买入，看着它翻倍，然后把我的本金撤出来了，就像你说的那样。
Now I bought it at 29, watched it double, and took my cost basis out like you say.
现在我是在用赌场的钱在玩。
And I'm playing with the house's money now.
所以我是该持有还是该
So should I hold or should I
是的。
Yeah.
你想持有。
You wanna hold.
我的意思是，你想持有。
I mean, you wanna hold.
首先，感谢你如此友善的评论。
First of all, thank you for the fine kind of comments.
我来告诉你一件奇怪的事。
I'll tell you what's weird.
Bipple上个季度表现非常出色。
Bipple delivered a really good quarter.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's no doubt about it.
我的意思是，这确实是个不错的季度，但在当前的新市场环境下，这还不够。
I mean, it was a good quarter, but in this new market, that's not enough.
如果一家公司的股价没有从其实际起点下跌20%，而现在它已经下跌了40%，我们就会开始想，你知道吗？
If a company's not valued down 20% from where it actually started, this is down 40% now, we're gonna start thinking, you know what?
它跌得还不够。
It's not down enough.
如果它的市盈率高于20左右，我们就会说：我们不感兴趣。
And if its price earnings multiple is higher than say 20, we're gonna say we don't we're not interested.
当前市场正变得非常悲观，即将演变为熊市。
It's become a very difficult bearish market about to become a bear market.
好吧。
Alright.
今年到目前为止，我对IPO市场看到的并不全然满意，但至少大型IPO似乎仍在按计划进行，只是我们手头的资金不足以应对它们。
I don't love everything I'm seeing out of the IPO market so far this year, but at least it looks like the mega IPOs are still on track, but we don't have enough money to handle them.
供给扼杀了目标。
Supply kills the goal.
更多资金即将涌入，包括我对Element Solutions的深入分析。
Much more man money ahead, including my deep dive into element solutions.
你问了，我就说。
You asked, tell.
这家特种化学品公司2026年至今股价已上涨近30%，我正在查看是否还有更多上涨空间。
This specialty chemicals name is already up nearly 30% in 2026, and I'm checking to see if there more gains.
我得告诉你，记得Chem7表现有多强劲吧。
I've got to tell you, remember the Chem seven is crushing it.
目前市场上充斥着大量悲观情绪。
Then there's a lot of pessimism surrounding this market.
那为什么指数没有因为这些而跌得更多呢？
So why aren't the averages down more because of it?
我正在分析这个动态，相信我，原因可能是它们还没涨上去。
I'm breaking down the dynamic, and believe me, it's because maybe they haven't fallen up yet.
还有你们所有的来电，今晚闪电轮的快速问答环节，请继续关注克莱默。
And all your calls, rapid fire, tonight's edition of the lightning round, so stay with Cramer.
几周前，我接到了来自俄勒冈州亚历克斯的电话。
So a couple weeks ago, I get this call from Alex in Oregon.
他想了解一家名为Element Solutions的特种化学品公司。
He wants to know about the special chemical company called Element Solutions.
这家工业股最近表现火热。
This industrial has been on fire lately.
我喜欢亚历克斯的推荐。
I like Alex's pitch.
他做得相当不错。
He he did pretty solid.
我其实没怎么关注过这只股票，所以我说，稍等一下，我回头再回他。
I I hadn't really been following the stock of weight, so I said, you know, just a moment and come back to him.
让我们从一段历史开始，因为我对现在被称为Element Solutions的公司有一些经验。
Let's start with a bit of history because I've had some experience with the company that's now called Element Solutions.
这家公司早在SPAC流行之前就已作为一家SPAC成立。
This company started as a SPAC long before SPACs became popular.
它曾名为Platform Specialty Products，由传奇人物马丁·弗兰克林经营，他此前创建了Jarden这家消费品整合公司。
It was called Platform Specialty Products, and it was run by the legendary Martin Franklin, who previously created Jarden, a consumer products roll up.
现在它已成为Newell Brands的一部分。
It's now part of Newell Branch.
它为我们的观众赚了很多钱。
Made made our viewers a lot of money.
多年来，Platform Specialty Products一直作为特种化学品领域的整合平台运作。
For many years, platform specialty products acted as a roll up in the specialty chemical space.
它是一种我们称之为‘空白支票公司’的实体，专门用于进行大量小型收购。
It was what we called a blank check company that exists to make lots of little acquisitions.
这就是SPAC过去运作的方式。
That's how SPACS used to work.
顺便说一下，富兰克林——我非常敬重他——自十三年前公司创立以来一直担任执行董事长。
By the way, Franklin, who I've just a ton of respect for, has been in charge here since you created the company thirteen years ago, serving as his executive chairman.
但就在一周前，宣布他将在今年春天晚些时候退休。
But just a week ago, it was announced that he'll be retiring later this spring.
我们真舍不得他离开。
We hate to lose him.
2019年，公司重新命名为Element Solutions，专注于为电子、工业和能源领域生产特种化学品。
In 2019, they rebranded as Element Solutions with a focus on making specialty chemicals for electronics, industrials, and energy.
在多年无所作为之后，随着公司部分终端市场在新冠疫情期间走红，股价再次活跃起来。
After doing nothing for several years, the stock came alive again during the COVID era as some of its end markets became popular.
上一次我真正关注这只股票是在2021年底，当时我报道了它，并在几周后采访了首席执行官。
The last time that this one was really on my radar was in late twenty twenty one when I covered it and then interviewed the CEO a couple weeks later.
之后，你知道怎么样吗？
After that, you know what?
我后来就忽略了Element Solutions，因为股价多年来一直横盘震荡，在高低位之间反复波动。
I kinda lost track of Element Solutions because the stock spent years trading sideways, bouncing between the highs and lows.
卖出
Sell,
卖出，卖出。
sell, sell.
为了参考，价格在二十多美元的低位到中位。
And the low to to mid twenties for perspective.
我于2021年11月与首席执行官本·格利克利克交谈过，当时该股票当月曾涨至约27美元的高点。
I spoke with CEO Ben Glicklick in November 2021, and the stock had hit a high of about 27 that month.
去年年底，股价仅略低于25美元。
It finished last year at just under 25.
总体而言，这只股票属于我所说的‘死钱’。
Overall, the stock is what I call dead money.
尽管股价毫无起色，Element Solutions 仍持续进行并购，以增加其在半导体制造等有吸引力终端市场的布局。
That said, even as the stock went nowhere, Element Solutions continue to make deals that increase its exposure to certain attractive end markets, like semiconductor manufacturing.
具体来说，他们收购了一家名为Cupion的公司。
Specifically, they they bought this company called Cupion.
它生产高导电性铜浆，有助于芯片散热。
It makes high conductivity copper paste that help chips shed excess heat.
天哪。
Oh my god.
太完美了。
So perfect.
突然间，在我们到处建设AI数据中心的世界里，这项技术变得至关重要。
Suddenly, that technology is essential in a world where we're building AI data centers all over the place.
谁能想到呢？
Who knew?
去年年底临近结束时，Element Solutions宣布了一项收购EFC气体与先进材料公司的交易，该公司提供用于半导体制造、航空航天和电力基础设施的高纯度特种气体和先进材料。
Finally, right near the end of last year, Element Solutions announced this deal to acquire a company called EFC gases and Advanced Materials, which provided high purity specialty gases and advanced materials used for semiconductor manufacturing, for aerospace, and for electrical infrastructure.
因此，尽管我们和其他大多数投资者几乎没有关注Element Solutions，这家公司却一直在稳步构建一项出色的业务，提供专业的化学品，并日益专注于电子领域，特别是半导体制造。
So even as we and most other investors haven't been able to haven't really been paying much attention to Element Solutions, The company has been slowly but surely building a great business, providing knee specialty chemicals with a growing focus on electronics, and in particular, semiconductor manufacturing.
从宏观角度来看，如果你看这些数字，Element Solutions在过去五年里的表现并不出色。
Now from a high level perspective, when you look at the numbers, Element Solutions hasn't done that great over the last five years.
在过去一段时间里，这些数字一直相对停滞。
The numbers have been relatively stagnant over the period.
但如果仔细查看去年的业绩，尽管整体数据并不特别令人鼓舞——4%的销售额增长和3%的利润增长——我们开始看到一个更好的故事正在形成。
But if you zoom in on the last year's results in particular, even though the overall numbers aren't particularly inspiring, 4% sales growth, 3% earnings growth, we start to see a better story forming.
公司的电子部门，如今占业务的约70%，同比增长了14%，有机增长率为10%。
The company's electronic segment, which now represents about 70% of the business, grew 14% year over year, 10% on organic basis.
Element Solutions意识到，其电路和半导体业务在人工智能和数据中心需求的推动下实现了两位数的有机增长。
With Element Solutions knowing that it had double digit organic growth in circuitry and semiconductor led by AI and data center driven demand.
就在那里。
There it is.
到了2026年，所有因素似乎都为Element Solutions汇聚在一起，这就是为什么其股价今年迄今飙升了近3030%，并引起了我们朋友亚历克斯的注意。
And now in 2026, everything seems to have come together for Element Solutions, which is why the stock had jumped nearly 3030% year to date and caught our friend Alex's attention.
在今年股市开局糟糕、非常糟糕，有些人甚至说是灾难性的背景下。
In this no good, very bad, some would say awful start to the year for stocks.
标普指数下跌超过7%，几乎没有几个板块表现良好。
With the S and P down over 7%, very few groups have done very well.
正如你可能想象的那样，由于西德克萨斯原油今年上涨了80%以上，能源板块成为少数表现优异的领域之一。
As you can probably imagine, with West Texas crude up over 80% for the year, the energy sector has been one of the few exceptions.
但你可能不知道，许多化工公司也表现得极为出色。
But you might not know that many chemical companies have also done incredibly well.
所以，听好了，这可不是开玩笑。
So look, it wasn't a joke.
上周，我谈到了一个我称之为……的板块。
Last week, I talked about a a group that I've dubbed.
嗯，严格来说这名字不是我起的，但叫‘化工七强’。
Well, it's not really mine, but it's called the Chem seven.
这包括科慕、塞拉尼斯、陶氏、亨斯迈、路博润、欧林和特隆克斯。
And that's Chemours, Celanese, Dow, Huntsman, LyondellBasell, Olin, and Tronix.
这个组合是我朋友弗兰克·米切尔从费米研究公司提出的。
That's a basket that my friend Frank Mitchell from Fermi Research came up with, though.
不过，我确实帮着做了品牌命名。
I really did help with branding.
你看，与伊朗的战争不仅造成了石油短缺。
See, war with Iran hasn't just caused an an oil shortage.
它还导致了许多化学品和基础材料的短缺。
It's also caused a shortage of many chemicals and basic materials.
结果发现，波斯湾地区拥有大量这类材料。
It turned out The Gulf had a lot of them.
因此，这七家化工企业股价同比上涨了27%至119%不等。
Hence, why the chem seven have rallied anywhere between 27 and a 119% year over year.
Element Solutions 正好处于这个理想位置。
Element Solutions is right in that sweet spot.
事实上，它让我想起了 Community Electronics。
In fact, it reminds me of Community Electronics.
那是一家去年年底从杜邦剥离出来的化工公司。
That's especially chemical company that was spun out of DuPont late last year.
去年十月我分析杜邦分拆时，就告诉过你们我对 Community 非常看好。
When I covered the DuPont breakup last October, I told you I was very bullish on Community.
当杜邦拆分时，我们继续通过旅行信托持有这两只股票。
And when DuPont broke itself up, we continue to own both stocks with Travel Trust.
今年到目前为止，社区电子的股价已经上涨了31%。
We're now up 31% for the year for community.
我很高兴为信托持有这只股票，但我也必须指出，Element Solutions更便宜，当前股价仅对应今年盈利预测的19倍，而社区电子则是28倍。
I'm very happy to own that one for the trust, but I've also gotta point out this helmet solutions is cheaper, trading at less than 19 times this year's earnings estimates versus 28 times for community.
也许我们该持有这一只。
Maybe we should own this one.
而且，别忘了，这个市场之所以对化工公司如此热衷，部分原因是因为伊朗战争导致的供应短缺。
And look, it's not just that this market has fallen in love with chemical, companies, thanks to the Iran war shortage.
Element Solutions的业绩一直在持续改善。
Element Solutions has been putting up better and better numbers.
公司预计今年营收增长近20%，盈利增长17%，2027年还将有另一轮强劲表现。
The company expected to put up nearly 20 revenue growth this year, 17% earnings growth followed by another fairly strong performance in 2027.
上周五，精品投行Freedom Capital Markets首次覆盖Element Solutions，并给出买入评级和41美元的目标价，潜在涨幅可能超过25%。
Last Friday, analysts at the boutique firm Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage in Element Solutions with a buy rating of $41 price target, probably more than 25% upside.
即使在我已经描述过的股价上涨之后，他们对这个故事仍然非常乐观，指出当前的长期增长驱动因素，比如人工智能数据中心的繁荣、其他行业的电气化趋势以及电子产品的密集度提升。
Even after the run that stocks already had that I've described, they're very bullish in the story, pointing to secular growth drivers now, like the AI data center boom, the electrification trend in other industries, and, rising electronics intensity.
后来，他们认为，全球经济的复苏可能有助于推动建筑和汽车等周期性终端市场中的部分业务。
Later on, they saw, say, a recovering global economy could help some of the elements in more cyclical end markets like constructive and automotive.
建筑和汽车领域，他们并没有像你所知道的那样乐观。
Construction and automotive, they're not as bullish as you know.
听我说，我觉得这是一个不错的故事。
And listen, I think it's a good story.
正如我所说，我不会把我长期持有的Community股票换成规模较小的Element Solutions，但一些投资者可能会倾向于持有后者，尤其是因为它便宜得多。
Like I said, I wouldn't swap out of my tried and true community shares to own the smaller Element Solutions, but some investors might be inclined to own the latter, especially since it's a lot cheaper.
如果你还没有持有其中任何一只股票，那么Element是参与当前表现非常出色的化学领域这一细分板块的一个不错选择。
If you don't own either, Element's a fine way to play this corner of the chemical space that's really doing quite well right now.
另外我想补充的是，就我个人看法而言，这只股票可能会遇到一段困难时期，或者我之前提到的推动其今年迄今大幅上涨的一些因素可能会停滞或减弱。
The other thing I wanna add, for what it's worth, is that this stock might run into a rough patch or some of the the the factors that I have led to its big year to date gain stall or go
进去
in
反过来。
reverse.
简单来说，如果我们看到伊朗战争结束，全球化学品短缺缓解，那么Element的股价就会下跌。
Simply, if we see the war in Iran come to a conclusion, some of the global shortage for chemicals ease, then elements gonna sell off.
如果半导体热潮因任何原因受阻，这正是该股票所暗示的，那么也会受到打击。
If the semiconductor boom is impaired for whatever reason, that's what the stock seem to be saying, right, Then it would hurt too.
但对我来说，目前的底线是，我认为亚历克斯和俄勒冈州为我们带来了一个真正不错的机会。
But the bottom line for me, for now, I think Alex and Oregon has brought us a real good one.
如果今年剩下的时间像第一季度那样发展，我预计终极解决方案的股价将继续飙升。
If the rest of the year plays out like the first quarter, then I expect the ultimate solutions to keep on soaring.
谢谢你，亚历克斯，来自俄勒冈。
Thank you, Alex, from Oregon.
那笔钱又回来了。
That money's back at.
该到时间了。
It is time.
该轮到白色了。
It's time for the white.
克里斯·威廉姆斯。
Chris Williams.
当然，每个人的时间都不同，你等一下。
Of course, time for everybody's difference the way you wait a sec.
然后是快速问答环节结束。
And then the lighting round is over.
你准备好了吗，史蒂夫？
Are you ready, Steve?
那是白人男性克里斯·威廉姆斯。
That's a white male Chris Williams.
在佛罗里达。
In Florida.
胡里奥。
Julio.
胡里奥。
Julio.
嘿，你
Hey, how
最近怎么样，吉姆？
are you doing, Jim?
我是来自佛罗里达的胡里奥。
It's Julio from Florida.
你怎么样？
How are doing?
很高兴你来参加节目。
Good to have you on the show.
最近怎么样，胡里奥？
What's going on, Julio?
挺好，老兄。
Good, good, man.
我只是希望你关注一下埃尔蒙特工业公司。
Just wanted you to take on El Monte Industries.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，这是一座矿山，它含有钨。
You know, it's a mine look, it's got it's tungsten.
它在进行采矿。
It's mining.
人们需要这个。
People want that.
我觉得股价还有上涨空间。
I think the stock can go higher.
它已经下跌了很多。
It's come down a lot.
我觉得现在买入可能没问题。
I think it is probably okay to buy.
我们连线一下波多黎各的萨姆。
Let's go to Sam in Puerto Rico.
萨姆。
Sam.
嘿，吉姆·克拉默。
Hey Jim Cramer.
吉姆·克拉默。
Jim Cramer.
它的市盈率只有九倍，利润率超过两位数。
Has a four PE of nine and double digit margins.
现在是买入九倍市盈率股票的好时机。
It's a time to buy nine.
你知道，这曾经是一家网络安全公司，人们很喜欢它，因为它拥有各种各样的网络和摄像头。
You know, this used to be a cybersecurity company people love because they had all sorts of different webs and cameras.
我认为现在大家都觉得这一点已经被取代了。
I think everyone now feels that that's been outmoded by yes.
A。
A.
我。
I.
我碰不到它。
I can't touch it.
另一个A。
Another A.
我。
I.
Destructo。
Destructo.
你可能得这么做。
You may have to.
嗯，我们试着把清单列出来。
Well we try to put together the list.
只是它们变得越来越长了。
It's just they just go longer and longer.
我们来听听佛罗里达的加布里埃尔。
Let's go to Gabriel in Florida.
加布里埃尔。
Gabriel.
嘿，吉姆。
Hey Jim.
太棒了。
Booyah.
太棒了，
Booyah,
加布里埃尔。
Gabriel.
银矿已经连续第六年出现巨额结构性赤字。
Silver is in a massive structural deficit for about the sixth year now.
首先，Majestic AG通过Gato银矿交易实现了产量的大幅提升。
And first majestic AG, just supercharged production with the Gato silver deal.
是的。
Yes.
你看，我从很久以前就是泛美洲银矿的支持者。
See, I'm a pan American silver guy from way back.
那正是我想投资的公司。
That's the one that I'd like to buy.
但考虑到我多次前往墨西哥的矿区参加生产评审，现在可能确实是时候了。
But I do have to believe having gone to several production reviews in in areas of Mexico, it may be time.
也许现在正是合适的时机。
Maybe the time is right.
我们就把这个当作一个假设吧。
Let's do let's use that as a spec.
好吗？
Okay?
我觉得这个规格不错。
I think it's a good spec.
我们连线纽约的约翰吧。
Let's go to John in New York.
约翰。
John.
嘿，吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
我正在雄伟的尼亚加拉大河岸边给你打电话。
Calling you from the banks of the mighty Niagara River.
我对一只股票感兴趣，它股息率达10%，市盈率仅为五倍，就是西联汇款。
I'm interested in a stock that pays 10%, trading at five times forward earnings, Western Union.
你知道，我见过这家公司，说实话，每次我推荐它，都是因为你刚才说的那些原因，但我总在想，为什么它就是不涨呢？
You know, I've met the company, and frankly, every time I recommend it, let's be honest, every time I recommend it because of exactly what you just said, I feel like why doesn't it go up?
答案是，它缺乏足够的盈利实力来推动股价上涨。
And the answer is because it doesn't have the earnings power to drive it up.
我们决定不买这只股票。
We're gonna take a pass on that stock.
我们转到佛罗里达的托尼。
Let's go to Tony in Florida.
托尼。
Tony.
嘿，吉姆。
Hey there, Jim.
我想特别表扬一下为你工作的人。
I just wanna give a shout out and bully up to your people that work for you.
他们非常友好。
They're very friendly.
他们和我合作。
They work with me.
事情不会就这样消失的。
Things don't go away.
他们非常出色。
They are fantastic.
我哪儿也去不了。
And I'm couldn't go anywhere.
我得告诉你，谢谢你提起来，因为我平时说得不够多。
I got and I gotta tell you, thank you for bringing it up because I don't bring it up enough.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我的意思是，我总是感谢你。
I mean, I always thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我其实从来没有感谢过你。
I really never thank you.
而且可能是整个节目的中坚力量。
And did a backbone probably of the whole show.
谢谢，我会承认的。
Thank would admit.
我也这么认为。
I think so.
但我刚才问的是，我希望我们持有的这只股票是安全的。
But what I was asking, this is a safe stock, I hope, in what we have.
我的意思是，它的盈利是45%，而你持有的那只则是51%。
I mean, it has 45% earnings, and the one that you have is 51.
你觉得沃尔玛作为安全型投资怎么样？
What do you think about Walmart for safety trade?
我绝对认为沃尔玛在这里是不错的。
I absolutely think that Walmart is okay here.
我非常喜欢这只股票。
I like the stock very much.
我觉得它刚刚从高点回落，现在又准备上涨了。
I think it just had a it bounced off the roof, came back down, and it's ready to run.
而这种车道跳跃是
And that lane jump is a conclusion of the
闪电环节。
lightning round.
闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。
The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
接下来，伊朗战争是否会让市场触及红线？
Coming up, are we a red line for the markets due to the war in Iran?
克拉默正在密切关注这一局势，情况可能比你想象的更接近。
Cramer is zeroing in on the situation, and it could be closer than you think.
他将在下文解释。
He explains next.
当油价上涨100%时，股市会下跌20%。
When oil goes up 100%, the stock market goes down 20%.
这几乎是不言而喻的，我认为我们离加拿大石油上涨100%已经不远了，目前WTI原油今年迄今已上涨81.5%。
It's almost axiomatic, and I think we're not far away from a 100% Canadian oil with WTI crude up 81.5% year to date.
迈克尔·塞姆布拉斯，这位摩根大通的石油策略师，向我们展示了这种关联，其关联性非常牢固。
Michael Semblas, the JPMorgan strategist with a great deal in oil, has shown us the linkage, and it's pretty ironclad.
你根本不需要太多思考。
There's not not a lot of thinking that you need.
那为什么我们还没有因为预期而下跌呢？
So how come we're not down already in anticipation?
为什么我们还没有下跌20%？
Why haven't we fallen 20%?
我认为这是因为总统一直在告诉市场他们想听的话，说战争即将结束，因为和平谈判进展顺利。
I think it's because the president keeps telling the market what it wants to hear, that the war is about to end any minute because the peace talks are going well.
但随后我们发现，我们仍在轰炸伊朗，甚至可能准备派遣地面部队，而伊朗方面表示他们对任何人闭口不谈。
Then we find out that we're still bombing Iran and possibly getting ready to move in ground troops, the Iranians say they aren't saying anything to anybody.
尤其是对特朗普。
Least of all, Trump.
这是一种非常不寻常的谈判方式。
Highly unusual negotiation form.
我知道有些战争中，一方会喊投降并恳求停止战斗，但我还没看到伊朗政府任何人说过类似的话。
I know that there are some wars where one side screams uncle and begs for the fighting to stop, but I haven't yet to see anyone in the Iranian government say anything like that.
老实说，他们似乎非常乐意继续战斗。
Honestly, they seem pretty eager to keep fighting.
然而，股市依然坚挺，因为特朗普总统对伊朗人想坐上和平谈判桌的态度显得异常客观。
Nevertheless, stocks keep hanging in there because president Trump is so objective about how the Iranians wanna come to peace table.
似乎每当市场大幅下跌时，我们都会恰好听到局势有所好转的消息。
It seems like every time the market's down big, we get the coincidence that things are going better.
我们尚未下跌20%的第二个原因。
Number two reason why we might not be headed down to that we're not down 20% yet.
有些人似乎相信，我们能通过海军陆战队和舰船的组合夺取霍尔木兹海峡。
Some people seem to believe that we're capable of taking the Strait Of Rouz with a combination of marines and ships.
我不认为这是真的。
I don't think that's true.
伊朗人仍然拥有足够多的导弹和无人机，一旦船只靠近，就能重创它们。
The Iranians still have enough missiles somehow and drones to ballpar ships if they get close.
它们并不适合二十一世纪的战争。
They aren't built for the twenty first century warfare.
第三点，也是最痛苦的一点，我们有些股票跌了两块又涨回一块。
Third and most painful, we have stocks that go down two and then up one.
看看英伟达吧。
Take a look at Nvidia.
这只股票自去年十月创出高点以来，跌幅已超过20%，自2026年年初以来更是下跌了11%。
This is a stock that's already down over 20% from its highs set last October, including an 11% slide since 2026 began.
目前，英伟达的股价对应明年盈利预期的市盈率不到15倍。
Right now, Nvidia sells for less than 15 times next year's earnings estimates.
我能说什么呢？
What can I say?
15倍。
15 times.
我认为这是因为整场战争已经变成了一次市盈率压缩事件。
I think that's because the whole war has become a PE multiple shrinking event.
既然可以晚点再买回英伟达，为什么现在要卖出？
Why sell NVIDIA when you can buy it back late?
为什么要买它？
Why buy it?
你为什么需要它？
Why do you need it?
好吧。
Okay.
首先这一点。
That's first of all.
那为什么你要买它？
Then why do you buy it?
想不出理由。
Can't think of reason.
你为什么要卖出它？
Why do you sell it?
因为你可以在更低的价格买回来。
Because you can buy it back lower.
如果它能跌到15倍市盈率以下，为什么不能是14倍？
If it can go below 15 times earnings, why not 14 times?
为什么不能是13倍？
Why not 13 times?
也许这并不重要。
Maybe it doesn't matter.
最后，要知道，这种情况持续得越久，市场越混乱，你根本无法有任何坚定的信念。
Finally, know that the longer this goes on, the bombing while taking talking situation, it's impossible to have any conviction.
这是不是解放日之后一切都被逆转的情况？
Is this post liberation day when everything gets rolled back?
如果是这样，你就必须持有股票。
If that's the case, you have to own stocks.
一些记者称这种策略为TACO交易，意思是特朗普总是让我们失望。
This is what some journalists call the TACO trade, which stands for Trump always checks us out.
我们曾在丹麦和格陵兰问题上退让了。
We had a back down over Denmark, Greenland.
我们与杰伊·鲍威尔发生了冲突并陷入僵局。
We had a clash with Jay Powell and a standoff.
当然，他取消了大部分关税。
And, of course, he rolled back most of the tariffs.
也许我们在伊朗问题上退缩了？
Maybe we have a chicken out in Iran?
不过我不这么认为。
I don't buy that though.
即使特朗普真想退缩，而我认为他并不会，只要伊朗人愿意继续封锁海峡，这也不重要。
Even if Trump wanted the chicken out, and I don't think he does, that doesn't matter as long as the Iranians are willing to keep the strait closed.
我认为伊朗人最好以和平方式开放海峡，而不是通过战争的方式，因为他们可能也在等待总统退让。
I think the Iranians better open the strait, the peaceful way, rather than the war zone way, because maybe they are waiting for the president to flinch too.
有些事我觉得他不会做。
Some I don't think he's going to.
所以人们每天都在坚持，但战争每天都持续着。
So people stay in each day, but each day the war drags on.
我们失去了一些察觉到僵局的追随者。
We lose some adherents who sense that there's a stalemate.
新的投资者，那些不关心战争或和平的人，会站在交易的另一方，但只会在更低的水平上参与，因为他们需要一些风险保护。
The new investors, the ones who aren't concerned about war or peace, will take the other side of the trade, but only at lower levels because they need to have some risk protection.
老投资者开始为退休感到担忧。
The older investors are getting afraid for the retirement.
我无法留住这些人，我也不能怪他们。
I can't keep those people in and I don't blame them.
无论怎样，不管我怎么告诉他们，要继续坚持都几乎太难了，这就是为什么我觉得下跌20%对我来说差不多是合理的。
No matter what, it's almost too hard for anyone to stay in no matter what I tell them, which is why down 20% seems about about right to me.
而那些尚未下跌20%、仍然坚挺的股票， somehow，在没有达成任何协议的情况下，我认为它们接下来也会轮到。
And the stocks that stay up, the ones not yet down 20%, somehow, without a word resolution, I think they're next.
我喜欢说，总 somewhere 会有一个书签。
I like to say there's always a bookmark somewhere.
我向你保证，就在这里为你找到它。
I promise to find it just for you right here.
赚了钱。
Made money.
我是吉姆·克雷默。
I'm Jim Cramer.
明天见。
See you tomorrow.
吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克雷默个人的观点，不代表CNBC及其母公司或附属公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介此前发布。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.
您不应将克雷默表达的任何观点视为特定的投资诱导或遵循特定策略的建议，而仅应将其视为他的个人观点。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克雷默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其附属公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖此类信息。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最
One of my
喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以许多不同的形式体现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新集，可在您收听播客的任何平台收听。
New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
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