吉姆·克莱默的疯狂金钱节目 2026年4月1日

但这只股票变得非常昂贵。

But the stock got really expensive.

今年年初，它的股价已经高达盈利的45倍以上。

Entering this year, was selling for more than 45 times earnings.

这使得AppGlobin的股票变得非常脆弱。

That left the stock of AppGlobin very vulnerable.

如果你的股票市盈率很高，而市场稍有担忧它可能被AI取代，投资者就会率先抛售。

If your stock has a high multiple and there's even a whiff of concern that it could be displaced by AI, then investors will sell first Sell.

抛售。

Sell.

抛售。

Sell.

事后再说。

And ask questions later.

表现第三差的是我其实不太熟悉的一家公司。

Third worst was one I really wasn't that familiar.

它叫CoStar集团，下跌了40%。

It's called CoStar Group, down 40%.

你可以把它看作是商业地产领域的Zillow。

Now you can think of it as kind of the Zillow of commercial real estate.

问题是，本季度对那些收集和整理有用数据的公司来说非常惨烈，而这种商业模式很容易被大型AI平台复制。

Problem is this quarter was brutal for companies that compile and organize useful data, a business model that can easily be duplicated by the big AI platforms.

但这是正确的判断吗？

Is that the right read though?

现在这其实并不重要。

Doesn't really matter for now.

纳斯达克100指数中表现第四差的公司，是我曾经非常喜爱的一家。

The fourth worst name in the Nasdaq 100 was a company that I used to adore.

它叫Workday，股价下跌了40%。

It's called Workday, and its stock was down 40%.

这家公司为企业财务和人力资源管理提供企业软件。

The company makes enterprise software for corporate finance and human capital management.

嘿。

Hey.

你知道吗？

You know what?

这又是双重打击的情况。

This is another double whammy situation.

这是一家企业软件公司，这是第一点，而且它专注于人力资源管理工具。

It's an enterprise software company, strike one, and it's it's focused on human capital management tools.

第二点。

Strike two.

你知道为什么吗？

You know why?

因为人工智能的兴起意味着裁员。

Because the rise of AI means layoffs.

我非常尊重Workday这家公司，我想说这里的担忧被夸大了。

I have a lot of respect for Workday, and I'd like to say that the concerns here are overblown.

但我一月份就试图这么说，结果几乎立刻，当时的首席执行官卡尔·埃申巴赫辞职了，Workday公布的季度业绩好坏参半，给空方留下了大量可挑刺的地方。

But I tried to say that at the January, and then almost immediately, the company's CEO at that point, Carl Eschenbach, stepped down and Workday reported a mixed quarter with plenty of issues for the bears to pick at.

我吸取了教训。

I've learned my lesson.

别在这群人里当英雄。

Don't try to be a hero in this group.

纳斯达克100指数中表现最差的第五名，哇，你一定见过这位仁兄。

The fifth worst Nasdaq 100, wow, you've seen this fellow on.

杰·施罗丁。

Jay Schroding.

Zscaler在第一季度下跌了近38%。

Zscaler, down almost 38% in the first quarter.

Zscaler是一家网络安全公司，而华尔街坚信，网络安全和其他企业软件一样，容易受到人工智能的替代影响。

Zscaler is a cybersecurity play, and Wall Street's convinced that cybersecurity is vulnerable to AI displacement as any other kind of enterprise software.

正如你上周直接从CrowdStrike的乔治·柯蒂斯那里听到的，以及昨晚Palo Alto的新动态。

Now as you heard directly from CrowdStrike's George Curtis last week, Palo Alto's new cash drawer last night.

这完全错了。

That's actually dead wrong.

在这里，我要划清界限。

And here, I will draw the line.

这完全是错的。

It's dead wrong.

当然，如果你想投资网络安全，我更愿意持有CrowdStrike或Palo Alto Networks，而不是Zscaler。

Of course, if you wanna bet on cybersecurity, I'd much rather own CrowdStrike or Palo Alto Networks than Zscaler.

我们持有两家旅行信托公司的股票。

We own both of the travel trust.

但公平地说，Zscaler不应当受到如此重创。

But in fairness, Zscaler shouldn't have been hit all that hard.

更差的第六名。

Six worse.

我还想稍微冒险谈一下另一个标的。

Another one I wanna kinda stick my neck out a little bit here into it.

第一季度下跌了近35%。

It was down nearly 35% in the first quarter.

我愿意冒这个险。

I'm willing to stick my neck out.

为什么选Intuit？

Why for Intuit?

因为即使AI平台能开发出类似的软件，它们也没有消费者和小企业主熟知并信任的品牌，也没有Intuit那套能帮你渡过难关的专家网络。

Because if the even if the AI platforms can develop similar software, they don't have the brand that consumers and small business owners know and trust, nor do they have into its network of experts that can get you out of a jam.

顺便说一下，账户情况也类似。

And by the way, the the accounts liken to it.

记住这一点。

Remember that.

这只股票在1月和2月受创最重，但自2月26日首席执行官萨桑·古达齐与我们交谈以来，股价实际上上涨了8%。

This stock got hit hardest in January and February, but then actually up 8% since CEO Sasan Gudarzi spoke to us in February 26.

我希望这能成为更大反弹的开端，而且我认为它值得如此。

I'm hoping that's the start of a larger comeback, and I think it deserves to.

但我知道这需要时间，因为人们已经放弃它了。

But I know it's gonna take time because people have written it off.

第七，奇怪的是，DoorDash在第一季度下跌了近34%。

Number seven, odd one DoorDash down nearly 34% in the first quarter.

没错。

That's right.

DoorDash。

DoorDash.

AI替代论者一直在针对所有类型的在线市场股票。

AI displacement bears have been coming for all the sorts of online marketplace stocks.

为什么？

Why?

像DoorDash这样的公司完全依赖网络效应。

A company like DoorDash is all about network effects.

但AI末日论者认为，一旦所有信息都能通过AI平台获取，这些网络效应就会消失。

But the AI doomers say these network effects go away once all information is available to everyone via AI platforms.

我不认同这个说法。

I don't buy that.

一旦拥有了用户基础，这类平台就很难被颠覆，而且现在是买入DoorDash股票成本最低的时机。

Once the user base is there, I think it's very hard for these marketplaces to be toppled, and DoorDash is now the cheapest it's ever been.

我很看好这支股票。

I like it.

我认为可以在当前价位入手DoorDash的股票。

I think the stock of DoorDash can be bought here.

纳斯达克100指数里表现第八糟糕的股票是汤森路透，第一季度市值暴跌近32%。

The eighth worst name in the Nasdaq 100 was Thompson Reuters, down nearly 32%.

这是又一个商业服务企业因AI竞争相关担忧遭受冲击的案例。

This is another example of a business services play getting hit by AI competition fears.

汤森路透开发的软件会汇总金融数据，我们做《疯狂金钱》节目时也会用到这套工具；同时他们还拥有威斯特法（Westlaw），这是一个同等重要的在线法律研究服务平台。

Thompson makes software that compiles financial data, which we use here, mad money, and they also own West law, a similarly essential online legal research service.

但要是你有一套系统能在短短几秒内检索完所有曾公开的判决文书，那你就根本用不上威斯特法了。

You don't need West law though if you have a system that can come through all the decisions ever written just a few seconds.

Claude 能否完成这些平台所做的一切？

Can Claude do all the things these platforms do?

问题问错了。

Wrong question.

正确的问题是：在我们等待结果的过程中，你愿意继续持有汤森路透吗？

The right question is, do you wanna stick with Thomson Reuters while we wait to find out?

基金经理不会这么做。

Money managers won't do that.

第九大跌幅的是Adobe，第一季度下跌了30%以上，但这只是这位屡遭打击的前云领域之王所经历的最新一次羞辱——人人都知道，或者至少认为它已经完蛋了。

The ninth worst decliner is Adobe, which was down over 30% in the first quarter, but that's really just the latest indignation, indignity, I should say, for this snake bitten former cloud king, which everyone knows is, or at least they assume is toast.

目前Adobe的股价为241美元左右，较其2021年11月创下的历史高点下跌了65%以上。

At $241 and change, Adobe's doc is down more than 65% from its all time high, set in November 2021.

该股票目前仅以今年预期收益的10倍价格交易。

Stock now trades at just 10 times, this year's earnings estimates.

天啊，它的估值简直像一家房地产开发商。

It's trading like a home builder for heaven's sake.

但每當OpenAI、Anthropic或Gemini推出新的設計工具時，Adobe的股價就會下跌。

But anytime OpenAI, Anthropic or Gemini comes out with this some new design tool, Adobe stock goes lower.

他們現在面臨新的競爭對手Figma，這很奇怪。

They now have new competition, Figma, which is odd.

這支股票的表現也同樣糟糕。

It's also been terrible too, the stock.

Canva是一個極其便宜的選擇。

Canva, there's a that's an ultra cheap option.

那麼，我有什麼資格說Adobe的股價已經太便宜了呢？

So why am I who am I to say that Adobe stock has gotten too cheap?

它還可以變得更便宜。

It can always get cheaper.

總有一天，設計學校會拋棄Adobe，讓學生從Canva開始學習。

One day, the design schools will leave behind Adobe and start their students on Canva.

這將終結Adobe在設計領域的主導地位，從那時起，情況可能變得生死攸關。

That will make the end of Adobe's design dominance, and it could be existential from there.

最后，Shopify在第一季度下跌了26%。

Finally, there's Shopify down 26% in the first quarter.

这个就像苹果的烤箱一样。

This one's like Apple oven.

它拥有一个业务出色、增长迅猛且盈利能力强大的企业，但它的股价涨得太高了。

It's got a great business with tremendous growth and impressive profitability, but its stock just got too high.

即使在这里，它的股价也达到了今年预期收益的64倍。

Even here, it sells for 64 times this year's earnings estimate.

坦白说，我不认为有什么令人信服的AI颠覆案例能威胁到Shopify。

Frankly, I don't think there's a compelling AI disruption case against Shopify.

这些公司对在线运营的小型和中型企业来说至关重要。

These guys are mission critical for small, medium sized businesses that operate online.

不幸的是，基金经理们不再愿意为这类公司支付溢价倍数，64倍的市盈率并不便宜。

Unfortunately, money managers are no longer willing to pay a premium multiple for this kind of company, and 64 times earnings ain't cheap.

这就是关键所在。

Here's the bottom line.

第一季度跌幅最大的股票几乎都受到了人工智能替代担忧的影响，尽管其中一些担忧比其他担忧更缺乏根据。

The biggest losers of the first quarter were nearly all victims AI displacement worries, even if some of those worries are less legitimate than others.

然而，与战争不同，这个问题不会消失。

Still, unlike the war, this is a problem that's not going away.

伊朗或许会停止在霍尔木兹海峡对油轮的袭击，但Anthropic永远不会停止对企业软件公司的冲击。

Iran might stop a shooting at oil tankers in the Strait Of Hormuz, but Anthropic will never stop gunning for the enterprise software plays.

我们连线佛罗里达的查克，查克。

Let's go to Chuck in Florida, Chuck.

克拉默医生，向您这位热情的雪鸟、俄亥俄州粉丝致以热烈的问候。

Doctor Cramer, a big, big, big snowbird Buckeye booyah to you.

我喜欢这个说法，也欣赏它的精神。

Well, I'm liking that, and I like the spirit of it.

我喜欢它的初衷。

I like the intent of it.

我该怎么帮您？

How can I help you?

首先，让我告诉你，我是俱乐部的会员，我很喜欢这里。

Well, first, let me let you know I'm a club member, and I'm digging it.

哦，太棒了。

Oh, fantastic.

是的。

Yeah.

马克斯和我付出了巨大的努力，显然反响很好。

Marks and I worked pretty darn hard, it's obviously well received.

我知道我们正在为俱乐部做推广，我稍后可能会提到，如果还没说过的话。

I know we're doing a promotion for the club that I'll probably talk about at one point if I haven't already.

好的。

Okay.

我们开始工作吧。

Let's go to work.

是的，长官。

Yes, sir.

嘿，我的问题是关于这里那个“40%法则”巨头人才相关的事。

Hey, my question is about that rule of 40 juggernaut talent here.

那个，你知道的，帕兰提尔（Palantir）

Well, you know, Palantir

查克，现在我得跟你说说帕兰提尔目前的情况。

right now, I I have to tell you, here's what's going on with Palantir, Chuck.

它曾经是一只非常热门的股票。

It was a very hot stock.

首先，咱们这家公司真的很不错。

It was it's a great company, first of all.

我说真的，绝对是家很棒的公司。

I mean, a great company.

有时候股价走势能反映公司的实际表现，但有时候股价也会过热，接着就会有卖家大举出场。

And sometimes stocks mirror how stocks do and sometimes stocks just get overheated and sellers come out.

而Palantir现在基本上是在搭建新的增长基础，毕竟它的业务势头太强了。

Palantir is basically building a new base because boy their business is strong.

我依赖于客户。

I'm relying on the customers.

客户非常喜欢他们，因此我认为他们拥有出色的产品，所以我认为他们将在2026年和2027年表现良好。

The customers love them and therefore I think they've got a great product and therefore I think they will have a 2026 and 2027.

总之，非常感谢你们的赞美之词。

Anyway, the biggest and thank you for the thank you for the nice comments.

第一季度表现最差的股票几乎都是受到人工智能替代担忧影响的受害者。

The biggest losers of the first quarter were nearly all victims of AI displacement worries.

我认为这个问题不会消失，今年我会持续向你们强调，因为你们需要知道这些股票为何下跌。

I think this is a problem that's not going to go away, and I'm gonna keep highlighting for you in all this year because you need to know why these stocks are going down.

接下来还有更多激动人心的内容，包括我与半导体分析公司的独家对话。

Now there's much more mad money ahead, including my exclusive with semi analysis.

这家研究公司的创始人已成为芯片行业不可或缺的声音，其研究成果甚至影响到了黄仁勋本人。

The founder of this research company has become a go to voice in the chip industry with his work reaching all the way up to Jensen Huang.

别错过我们这场内容丰富的对话。

Don't miss our wide ranging conversation.

然后，礼来公司传出重大消息，将共和党的目标进一步推后。

Then big news out of Eli Lilly is pushing the GOP dash one space further in the future.

我来分享我的见解。

I'm giving you my takeaways.

当然，今晚的闪电环节还有你们的快速来电。

And, of course, your calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round.

请继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

我觉得这个环节会非常精彩。

I think this is gonna be a terrific segment.

当你回顾第一季度表现最好的股票时，就像我们之前做的那样，你应该听到了我们的AI数据中心概念股。

When you look at the best performers in the first quarter like we did earlier, you should have heard them our AI data center plays.

当你观察表现最差的股票时，它们几乎全是受AI替代影响的受害者。

When you look at the worst performers, well, they're practically all victims of AI displacement.

这意味着，了解整个AI供应链至关重要，这也引出了我的话题——Semi Analysis。

That means it pays to know more about the entire AI supply chain, which brings me to Semi Analysis.

这是一家专注于芯片和人工智能的独立研究公司。

That's an independent research company specializing in chips and AI.

他们从一个Substack账号发展成了一支全球性的分析师和工程师团队，最近还在GTC大会的主旨演讲中被英伟达的黄仁勋点名表扬。

They've gone from a Substack account into a global team of analysts and engineers that recently got a shout out from NVIDIA's Jensen Huang at the keynote speech at GTC.

这些人说的话就是金科玉律。

These guys are the gospel.

让我们来连线一下戴伦·帕特尔。

So let's check-in with Dylan Patel.

他是Semi Analysis的创始人、首席分析师兼CEO，让我们更好地了解这个行业。

He's the founder, chief analyst, and CEO of semi analysis to get a better read on the industry.

帕特尔先生，欢迎来到《财神爷》。

Mister Patel, welcome to Mayor Money.

谢谢您的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

我不敢说自己是福音，但很高兴能在愚人节来到这里，尤其要感谢过去几周卖掉内存的所有‘傻瓜’们。

I don't know for the gospel, but certainly, I'm happy to be here in April fools, especially to thank all the fools who have sold memory the last few weeks.

我喜欢这一点。

I like that.

我喜欢是因为你特立独行，但又很准确。

I like it because you're iconoclastic, but you're accurate.

你做的是基准测试，这是最重要的事情。

You do the benchmarking, which is the most important thing.

所以，是的，我把你看作是权威。

So I, yes, do regard you as gospel.

我认为，像你这样的人能帮我们的是……

And what someone in your position, I think can help us.

华尔街对科技的看法，和你所了解的实际科技情况之间，是否存在误解？

Is there a misconception between what Wall Street thinks of tech and what you know to be the case when it comes to actual tech?

我认为确实如此。

I think absolutely.

华尔街经常对许多正在发生的事情反应过度。

The street often overreacts to a lot of things that are happening.

其中一些情况包括，你知道的，最近几周，许多计算类股票都下跌了。

Some of those things include, you know, the last few weeks, a lot of the compute names have fallen.

当然，全球范围内存在波动、恐慌和地缘政治问题。

Of course, there's volatility and worldwide, panic and geopolitics happening.

但在许多情况下，最近几周，H100芯片的市场价格实际上已经上涨了。

But in many cases, it's like, well, the last few weeks, the price of h 1 hundreds have gone up empirically within the market.

每个人都看到了计算资源紧张的局面。

Everyone sees the compute crunch happening.

然而，不知为何，云股票却在下跌。

And yet, for some reason, the cloud stocks are going down.

这反映出华尔街的看法与实际技术发展及市场真实情况之间存在差异。

It's it's things that Wall Street versus what the actual technology and what's actually happening in the market differ.

你觉得这些观点是不是太教条了？

Well, do you find things to doctrinaire?

比如，当你和华尔街的人交谈时，他们会说SaaS已经过时了。

For instance, when you talk with people on Wall Street, they'll say SaaS is finished.

SaaS没有任何价值。

There's no value SaaS.

所有被私有化的SaaS公司都完了，它们陷入了私人信贷的泥潭。

Any of the companies that were taken private that are SaaS are finished and they're part of the private credit morass.

而其他一些公司，比如Anthropic和OpenAI，似乎怎么做都是对的。

Whereas other companies that, you know, anthropic and open AI seemingly can do no wrong.

我的意思是，我们可能是最早推动这一观点的人之一。

I mean, I I think we were some of the first people to push this narrative.

你知道，就在去年年底，我们还在讨论软件成本正在崩溃。

You know, even late last year, we were talking about how the cost of software is collapsing.

所以这真的取决于软件业务的性质。

And so it really depends on what the software business is.

如果你的客户获取成本非常高，那么那些拥有现有客户群的公司就还有价值。

If your customer acquisition cost is extremely high, then the companies that have existing customer bases are worth something.

如果你的客户获取成本不高，那你的业务就完了，因为你的产品可以以远低于你过去X段时间研发投入的成本被复制。

Your customer acquisition cost is not high, then your business is finished because your product can be replicated at a much lower cost than the r and d you spent over the last, you know, x amount of period of time.

我可以告诉你，戴伦，这个指标在华尔街并没有得到太多关注。

Well, I can tell you, Dylan, that that is a a metric that doesn't get much attention on Wall Street.

我们关注ARR，讨论谁的推广最好、谁最令人兴奋。

We do ARR and we we talk about who's got the the best promote and who's the most exciting.

但这是一个非常好的指标，我得开始把它纳入考量。

But that is a terrific metric that I have to start incorporating.

看看这个例子，你就明白为什么了。

See this example why one is you want.

我认为我们常常根据公司过去的表现来评判它们。

I think we make the we we oftentimes judge companies by how they were in the past.

而我们却没有思考它们未来会怎样。

And we don't think about how they will be in the future.

而它们未来的发展关键在于规模。

And how they will be in the future is about scale.

如果收费太高，它们就无法实现规模扩张。

And they can have scale if they charge too much.

我想问问你，关于我们认为最具争议的股票。

I'm gonna ask you about the most controversial stock that we think.

Adobe，我们不明白，为什么当他们收费这么高，而人们却能以低得多的价格买到功能非常相似的产品时，Adobe还能值大约一千亿美元。

Adobe, we don't understand how Adobe can still be, say, a $100,000,000,000 company or close to it when they're charging so much and people are willing to get a product that's very similar for far less.

这是怎么回事？

What happens?

Adobe是最有趣的案例，因为我们看到它的评价在‘天啊，它被AI击垮了’和‘天啊，它融入AI的速度真快’之间反复摇摆。

Adobe is the funniest one because we see it oscillate between being, you know, oh my god, they're dead from AI to oh my god, they're incorporating AI so fast.

它从‘太棒了’变成‘天啊，它被AI击垮了’。

They're great to oh my god, they're dead from AI.

我认为现在它仍然算是‘太棒了’，因为它正在快速整合AI技术。

And I think right now it's still, you know, they're great because they're incorporating AI quickly.

很明显，普通用户已经不再需要Adobe的订阅服务了。

It's pretty abundantly obvious that the average user does no longer need no longer needs Adobe subscriptions.

实际上，许多视频制作和视频编辑工作也越来越不需要它了。

And what's actually happening is that a lot of video production and video editing is starting to require it less and less as well.

不过，幸运的是，Adobe拥有根深蒂固的市场地位。

Now, Adobe thankfully has this entrenched market position.

而且人们在更换工具方面相当固执。

And so and people are pretty stubborn in terms of moving off tools.

他们的许多用户其实并不喜欢人工智能。

A lot of their markets actually hate AI.

因此，他们在一定程度上具有持久性。

So they have some durability here.

但最终，人们还是会逐渐放弃使用这些传统的视频编辑方式。

But ultimately, at the end of the day, people are going to be transitioning away from using a lot of these classical style video editing.

Adobe必须重新塑造自己。

Adobe has to reinvent themselves.

那么，他们会吗？

Now, will they?

我认为他们正在非常努力地尝试。

I think they're trying really hard.

我认为他们意识到必须重新塑造自己。

I think they recognize they have to reinvent themselves.

但如今，视频和图像编辑的成本比两年前低得多。

But today, the cost of editing video and image is much lower than it was even two years ago.

谢谢。

Well, thank you.

这对他们的价值产生了实际影响

And that is a real impact on their value

长期来看。

long term.

完全正确。

Totally right.

完全正确。

Totally right.

这种长期以来的偏爱已经行不通了。

There's just been this legacy of love that doesn't work.

当我参加GTC时，我一直在观察Jensen，他在思考如何表达自己理解推理，而很多人对此并没有真正体会。

Now, when I was at GTC, I was watching Jensen and he was trying to figure out how he could describe that he understands inference when a lot of people feel it.

我不想对我们观众讲得太深入，但训练和推理确实至关重要。

I don't wanna get too too in the weeds for our audience, but that he's training and inference is so important.

他用了你们的数据，用了你们的基准测试来证明自己是推理领域的王者。

He used you, your date, he used your benchmarking to show that he was the king of inference.

这对你们来说感觉如何？

What did that feel like for you?

因为我知道，这并不是你们做这件事的初衷。

Because I know that was not why you did it.

简单总结一下，我们目前运行着超过五千万美元的GPU，这些GPU由OpenAI、微软、Crusoe、Oracle、Coraweave等公司提供。

So so to recap, right, we run over $50,000,000 of GPUs that are provided to us from companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Crusoe, Oracle, Coraweave, etcetera.

他们把这些GPU捐赠给我们，用于这个开源基准测试，我们每晚都会运行世界上所有开源模型，因为软件每天都在变化。

They donate the GPUs to us for this open source benchmark where we run all the world's open source models, and we run them every night because software changes every day.

我们根本没想到Jensen会点名提到我们。

And we didn't we didn't expect Jensen to call us out.

但他确实点名了我们。

But hey, he called us out.

被世界上最重要的人物之一认可，这种感觉真的很不真实，你知道，他认可了我们所做的工作。

And it felt surreal to be to be recognized by the world, you know, one of the world's most important executives, most important people to recognize the work that we do.

很多工作都是免费的，这真是太令人兴奋了。

A lot of it for free is is so exciting.

这个开源基准测试凝聚了团队无数的汗水、心血和努力，我们甚至没有从中赚过一分钱。

And and it took so much blood, sweat, tears from the team to build this benchmark that we open source entirely, so we didn't even make money off of it.

当然，它后来催生了大量相关的咨询和数据业务，但归根结底，我们是免费向全世界开放的。

Of course, it spawns all this other consulting and data business downstream, but ultimately, it's something that we give away to the world for free.

所以，人们能认可这份无偿的工作，真的非常了不起。

And so it's it's really amazing that people recognize that free work.

这确实是实至名归。

Well, it's an honor deserved.

没有人像你们这样在做这样的工作。

No one else is doing the kind of work you're doing.

我想问问你关于华尔街的另一个误解。

I wanna ask you about another misconception when it comes to Wall Street.

我们只是悄悄地讨论，我用‘我们’是因为我确实也说过一些华尔街常说的话。

We just quietly talk about I'm I'm putting we in because I do mouth some of what Wall Street says.

我承认这一点。

I admit that.

那些公司支出过度，资本支出是一场灾难。

That what that these companies are overspending and that the CapEx is a disaster.

但我一看，发现你根本不可能花掉他们所说的那么多钱。

And yet I look and see, well, you can't even spend as much money as they're talking about.

但我需要你告诉我，我们是否过于关注支出过度的问题。

But I need you to tell me whether we are over focused on overspend.

你知道，资本支出就像鞭子一样。

You know, this is the this is CapEx is sort of like the bullwhip.

归根结底，现在他们投入的每一美元，都换来了多年期合同，毛利率相当不错。

And at the end of the day, right now, every dollar they put to work, they're getting multiyear contracts with gross margins that are pretty good.

是的

Mhmm.

无论是核心波浪、微软、甲骨文、亚马逊还是谷歌。

Whether it be a core wave or a Microsoft or an Oracle or an Amazon or Google.

这些公司正在投入资金，并从中获得非常有吸引力的回报。

These companies are putting money to work, and they're getting really attractive returns from it.

也许有一天，突然间，他们每年支出30%或更多。

It could be one day, all of a sudden as this you know, they're they're spending, you know, 30% or more each year on year.

在某个时刻，他们花的钱可能没有合同支撑，然后一切就崩溃了。

At one point, the amount of money they're spending could not have a contract backing it, and then it all collapses.

但目前市场上根本没有算力。

But currently, there is no compute in the market.

由于供应短缺，即使我们正在建设数千亿美元的产能，旧算力的价格仍在上涨。

The price of compute is going up for old compute because there is no supply even though we're building hundreds of billions of dollars of capacities here.

所以现在，他们投入的每一美元，都是在赢得未来。

So right now, every every dollar they put to work is them winning the future.

当你看到亚马逊的资本支出是两千亿美元，谷歌是一千八百亿美元，而微软则显得谨慎得多时，你会怎么想？

And when you look at, hey, Amazon, 200,000,000,000, Google, a $180,000,000,000 of capex, You look at Microsoft, they're being much more tepid.

微软的做法是对的，还是谷歌和亚马逊的做法是对的？

Is Microsoft correct or is Google and Amazon correct?

在我看来，谷歌和亚马逊才是正确的，因为它们将赢得未来，并从这些资本投入中获得良好的回报。

And I think in my view, Google and Amazon are the ones that are right because they're gonna win the future, and they're gonna get good returns on that capital.

真正令人担忧的是，公开市场至今仍未意识到这一点：画出这条线。

And the real scary thing that the the public market still haven't recognized yet is draw the line.

看看明年亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软各自正在建设多少个数据中心。

Look at look at how many data centers Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are all building next year.

明年谷歌的自由现金流将基本为零。

Google's free cash flow will be basically zero next year.

我认为市场还没有准备好接受这一真相。

I don't think the market is ready for this revelation.

最终，我实际上认为这是正确的决定，因为这些公司是全球最顶尖的资本配置者。

And at the end of the day, I actually think that's the correct decision because these are the best capital allocators in the world.

这些是人类历史上回报最高的企业。

These are the best returning businesses that the history of humanity has ever made.

今天，它们站在这里对我们说，这是我们能做的最重要的事，这将推动我们未来的收益增长。

And today, they stand here and look at us and say, this is the most important thing that we can do, and this is going to accelerate our our earnings in the future.

如果你不同意它们的观点，那很好。

And if you don't agree with them, that's great.

但你身处华尔街。

But you're on Wall Street.

你并不是真正理解这项技术的人。

You're not the one who actually understands the technology.

我不是说市场没有效率，市场是聪明且高效的，但我更信任它们所看到的，而不是华尔街的看法。

And not to say that the markets aren't efficient, the markets are smart and efficient, but I trust, what what they see more than than what Wall Street

说。

says.

我多次被谷歌的露丝·波拉特教育过，所以我知道你说得完全正确。

Well, I've been schooled by Ruth Porat many times from Google, so I know that you're absolutely right.

最后一件事，我看到你发了一篇关于微软三月的帖子。

Now, one last thing I saw a little post that you made about Microsoft March.

我不是特别看好。

I'm not as big a fan.

显然，你昨天的评论也表达了同样的观点。

Obviously, your comments yesterday indicate the same.

我觉得Copilot根本没法用。

I find Copilot to be just unusable.

我想知道，相比我们常用的其他工具，比如Perplexity或Grok，你的看法如何？

And I wanted to know where you came down versus say, the others that we all tend to use, whether it be Perplexity or Grok.

我对Gemini越来越感到不安。

I've been growing uncomfortable with Gemini.

ChatGPT和我太熟络了。

ChatGPT is too chummy with me.

你觉得Copilot在这些工具中表现如何？

How do you rate Copilot as part of the mix?

我认为Copilot，你知道的，微软如果执行到位，本可以处于一个黄金位置。

I think Copilot you know, Microsoft, if they executed, they would be in a golden spot.

他们本可以掌控并赢得一切，但他们就是没能好好执行。

They'd own and win everything, but they've just failed at executing.

这真的让人感到遗憾。

And it's really sad.

当我看到我公司工资总支出时，达到了两千到两千五百万美元。

When I look at my company's total spend on wages, it is it is 20 to $25,000,000.

而当我看到我公司目前在AI上的支出，主要是Claude和代码相关，是五百万美元。

And when I look at my company spend now on AI, primarily Claude code, it is $5,000,000.

所以，我们现在在AI上的支出占总支出的20%到25%，而且这些钱没有一分流向微软。

And so we're at 20% of my spend, 20 to 25% of my spend is actually on AI now as a percentage of total, and none of that goes to Microsoft.

没有。

No.

别这样。

Don't.

基本上一点都没有。

Basically, none of it.

我只是购买微软365的许可证，仅此而已。

I just buy Microsoft three six five licenses, that's it.

天哪。

Oh my god.

这太令人震惊了，但又不是。

That's devastating, and it's not.

这太令人震惊了。

It's devastating.

我的意思是，

I mean,

这对我来说太棒了，因为我的业务比以往任何时候都发展得更快，因为我们能完成比以往更多的工作。

it's it's fantastic for me because my business is accelerating faster than ever because we're able to do more work than ever.

但微软的解决方案只是最低限度。

But the fact that Microsoft solutions are just a bare minimum.

现在它们就在那里了。

Now they are there.

对吧？

Right?

我需要为每个人提供SharePoint。

I do need SharePoint for everyone.

我需要为每个人提供Excel。

I need Excel for everyone.

但越来越多的人，过去曾担任对冲基金分析师或金融分析师，约占我公司三分之一，他们几乎不怎么用Excel做图表，也很少用Excel做回归分析。

But more and more, I have people who have worked as hedge fund analysts or financial analysts in the past, that's about a third of my company, who barely use Excel to make charts, barely use Excel to run regressions.

他们实际上只是写一段日志代码，指向这个数据集，查看CSV文件就可以了，这样更好、更高效、更快，我们也能完成更多工作。

They actually just took log code to point at this dataset, look at the CSV and do And it's better, more efficient, faster, and we're able to get more work done.

所以行业的工具正在发生变化。

And so the tools are changing of the trade.

Excel和Microsoft 365诞生于人类与计算机互动的时代，但现在人类只需告诉计算机该做什么工作。

And Excel and Microsoft three sixty five were made in an era where humans worked with computers, but now humans tell the computer what work to do.

而那个终端、那个愿景，微软曾为所有人奠定了这个基础层。

And that terminal, that vision, Microsoft has had that base layer for everyone.

但随着我们向前发展，他们已经不再如此了。

And as we go forward, they don't.

哇。

Wow.

那他们打算怎么做才能重新夺回呢？

And what are they gonna do to regain it?

这对他们来说真是一个令人恐惧的处境。

It's it's a truly scary situation for them.

我也觉得这确实关乎生死存亡。

That's I I I've been feeling it's existential too.

我其实一直在寻找一些比我目前感受到的更多希望，但我找不到，因为到了五月

I was actually kind of looking for for a little bit more hope than I feel about it, but I can't get that because in May

我会为每个用户支付微软20美元或40美元。

I will pay Microsoft I will pay Microsoft $20 per user or $40 per user.

但你看，

But look,

你是个公正的中介。

you're an honest broker.

我的意思是，有很多人需要微软的业务。

I mean, there's a lot of people who need business from Microsoft.

你不是其中之一。

You're not one of them.

你只是纯粹地看待事实，而事实显然对他们不利。

You're just so you're someone who looks at the facts, and the facts are obviously not in their face.

并不在

Not in

他们是大客户，但人们付钱给我们是因为我们诚实。

They're a big customer, but people pay us for being truthful.

当然。

Absolutely.

好吧，我希望你能回来，戴伦。

Well, look, I hope you come back, Dylan.

你是个非常诚实的说真话的人，我说的是实话。

You're a great truth sayer, and I'm saying gospel.

不管你认为这是否太过极端，我都支持戴普·帕特尔，他是半导体分析公司的创始人、首席执行官兼首席分析师。

I'm whether you whether you think that that's too extreme or not, I'm going with the dope Patel's, the the founder, CEO of chief and chief analyst of semi analysis.

如果你能理解，从半导体分析那里你能学到很多东西。

By the boy guys if you get it you can learn so much for Semi Analysis.

这是很严肃的。

It is serious.

《疯狂金钱》又回来了。

Mad money is back at.

接下来，你有问题。

Coming up you've got questions.

克雷默有答案。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接接下来的快速闪电问答环节吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

现在是时候与各位嘉宾进行闪电问答环节了。

Is time to talk to the lightning round pitch with the ladies and gentlemen.

闪电问答环节结束后。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

好的。

Okay.

我们先从比尔·马奇开始。

Let's go with Bill matches.

比尔。

Bill.

吉姆·克拉默，你今天怎么样？

Jim Cramer how are you today.

我很好，比尔。

I'm doing well Bill.

你今天怎么样？

How about you today.

嘿，我想快速分享一下如何在任何市场中赚钱。

Hey I wanted to make a quick comment on how to make money in any market.

我真的很喜欢汉克先生。

I really enjoyed Mr.

汉克。

Hank.

我喜欢这十堂课。

I enjoyed the 10 lessons.

我喜欢整本书。

I enjoyed the whole book.

我只是想让你知道这一点。

I just wanted you to know that.

你。

You.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个关于我和我父亲的故事，讲的是我父亲买错了股票，而汉克先生买对了股票。

It's a story about me and pop and how pop bought the wrong stock and mister Hank bought the right stock.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

我能怎么帮您？

How can I help you?

精彩，精彩的故事。

Beautiful beautiful story.

吉姆博，我现在还应该继续加仓波音股票吗？

Jimbo, should I at this point still add to my Boeing?

是的。

Yes.

我认为波音将成为2026年最大的股票之一。

I think Boeing is going to be Bill one of the big stocks of 2026.

我认为它还有上涨空间。

I think it can run.

我昨天和杰夫·马克斯聊过这件事。

I was talking about with Jeff Marks yesterday.

当然，我那位在旅行信托的同事，我当时觉得股价涨到六的时候，我没能下手。

Of course my colleague on the travel trust that we I just felt when it was up six I couldn't pull the trigger.

但这只股票还会涨得更高。

But this thing is going up much higher.

它已经焕然一新，准备就绪。

It's refreshed and ready.

我们连线俄勒冈州的亚历克斯。

Let's go to Alex in Oregon.

亚历克斯。

Alex.

太棒了，吉姆，感谢你接听我的电话，也感谢你们团队一直如此出色。

Booyah Jim thanks for taking my call and thank you to your team for always being awesome.

我今天要聊的这家公司是一家不太为人所知的民用基础设施软件公司。

The company I'm calling about today is kind of a under the radar civil infrastructure software company.

鉴于当前世界局势如此动荡，我不禁想问，投资这家公司是否值得？

With the status of apocalypse going on, I wonder if it's worth to go long with this company.

他们确实有一个很酷的亮点，就是他们的数字孪生技术。

They do have kind of a cool note with their, like, digital twin.

我今天要聊的是Bentley Systems公司。

I'm calling about Bentley Systems.

股票代码是BSY。

The ticker symbol is BSY.

好的。

Okay.

这事儿我得告诉亚历克斯。

This is one of those that I've got to tell Alex.

理论上应该是可行的。

It should work theoretically.

但你知道，人们对软件公司总是有这种感觉。

But you know how people feel if it's a software company.

他们觉得AI会取代这类公司，而且根本无法逆转。

They think it can be disintermediated by AI and there's just no turning back.

他们不会允许股价上涨的。

They're not gonna let it go up.

所以我得说不。

So I'm gonna have to say no.

我们接一下来自加利福尼亚的安德鲁。

Let's go to Andrew in California.

安德鲁。

Andrew.

你好，吉姆。

Howdy Jim.

谢谢你接我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

当然。

Of course.

怎么了？

What's happening.

嘿。

Hey.

我想问问，随着白银价格上涨，VZLA股票是不是该看多了？

I was wondering with silver going up if VZLA stock was a time to get bullish.

不，不，我们已经错过时机了。

No, no, we're late in the game there.

如果你还想做长期投资，你应该持有生态鹰。

And if you still want to go long term, you want to own an eco eagle.

我不希望你持有这只股票。

I don't want you to own that stock.

我认为这是只来自温哥华的高风险股票。

I think it's a Vancouver risky stock.

我们转到新泽西的乔。

Let's go to Joe in New Jersey.

乔，你好，先生。

Joe, Hello Mr.

克拉默，谢谢你的来电。

Cramer and thank you for taking my call.

当然，乔。

Of course Joe.

很高兴你再次回到节目。

Good to have you back on the show.

最近怎么样。

What's happening.

是的。

Yes.

我买入了C公司三分之一的仓位。

I bought a third of the position in a C.

M。

M.

我应该继续吗？

Should I continue.

我认为AECOM是一家很棒的公司。

Think AECOM is a great company.

我很惊讶它竟然这么低。

I'm surprised to see it so low.

人们喜欢奎anta，也喜欢字母J。

People like quanta and people like the letter j.

AECOM，他们觉得它太贵了，对此我无能为力。

AECOM, they think it's too expensive, and there's nothing I can do about it.

女士们先生们，闪电轮到此结束。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电轮由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，克拉默将追踪礼来公司的最新进展，包括其新型GLP-1口服药的获批，这可能会彻底改变局面。

Coming up, Cramer's tracking the latest developments at Eli Lilly, including approval for its new GLP one pill, which could completely change the game.

下一个。

Next.

布布布，是的，吉姆·克拉默。

Boo boo boo yeah, Jim Cramer.

我是一个

I'm a

首次来电的观众，一位快乐的俱乐部会员。

first time caller, a happy club member.

我想感谢你作为投资者的人民代言人。

I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.

谢谢你帮助我成为百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

今天我们收到了礼来公司的重大消息。

Today we got big news from Eli Lilly.

印第安纳波利斯的巨头礼来公司获得了Fondayo的批准，这是目前唯一一种可以全天任意时间服用、无需受饮食或饮水限制的GLP-1减重药丸。

The Indianapolis Colossus got approval for Fondayo, which is now the only GLP dash one weight loss pill that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions.

它的效果几乎和注射剂一样强。

It's almost as strong as the injections.

有商业保险的话每月收费25美元，如果自费的话，每月价格在149美元到103,149美元之间。

Charge you $25 per month commercial coverage, or between a 149 and a $103,149 dollars per month if you're paying out of pocket.

当与诺和诺德的竞品药丸直接对比时，我认为礼来的产品一定会胜出。

When placed head to head against the competing pill from Novo Nordisk, I think Lilly's gotta win them.

诺和诺德的药丸在减重效果上略占优势，但你必须在早上服用，而且不能在饱腹时服用，还有其他诸多限制。

Novo's pill has a bit of an edge in terms of weight loss, but you have to take it in the morning, and you can't take it on a full stomach among other restrictions.

礼来药丸，你可以随时服用，不管吃了什么。

Louis Pill, you can take whenever regardless of what you've eaten.

这些小细节累积起来会带来巨大的优势。

These little things do add up to a gigantic advantage.

现在我们知道，旧的GLP-1注射剂一直是阻碍人们使用这种药物的一大障碍。

Now we know the old g o p dash one shots have been a big impediment to getting people to take this stuff.

如果有药片可用，没人愿意打针。

Nobody wants to get an injection if there's a pill available.

而且药片便宜得多。

Plus the pill is much, much cheaper.

你不需要把它存放在冰箱里。

You don't have to store it in your fridge.

礼来提前备货是有原因的。

There's a reason Lilly pre built inventory for this thing.

他们已经准备好迎接汹涌而来的需求。

They are ready for the onslaught.

但讽刺的是，礼来最大的新闻可能是昨天发生的事。

Ironically, though, the biggest news from Lilly may have been something that happened yesterday.

那就是以78亿美元收购生物技术公司Sentessa Pharmaceuticals。

That's the acquisition of Sentessa Pharmaceuticals, a biotech company for $7,800,000,000.

Sentessa正在致力于治疗发作性睡病和其他神经系统疾病。

Sentessa is trying to combat narcolepsy and other neurological disorders.

他们正在研究一种名为食欲素的神经肽，据称发作性睡病患者体内缺乏或含量不足这种物质。

They're working on a neuropeptide called orexin, which is apparently something that people with narcolepsy are missing or don't have a lot of.

食欲素有可能被用于治疗远超发作性睡病的更多疾病。

It's possible that orexin can be used for much more than narcolepsy.

它可能有助于治疗药物和酒精成瘾。

It could potentially treat drug and alcohol addiction.

它也可能用于对抗情绪障碍，而这些障碍都以某种方式与睡眠相关。

It may also be used to combat mood disorders, which are all related to sleep in one form or another.

无论是抑郁、焦虑还是双相情感障碍，它们很少伴随着健康的睡眠周期。

Whether it's depression or anxiety or bipolar disorder, they rarely come with a healthy sleep cycle.

我喜欢礼来公司在这里所做的事。

I like what Lilly's doing here.

它正在攻克一些最难治疗的疾病，这些疾病常常让试图战胜精神疾病的制药公司感到困惑和束手无策。

It's tapping some of the hardest to treat illnesses, ones that have often baffled and befuddled these drug companies that have attempted to beat mental illness.

通往成功神经治疗的道路上布满了失败。

The path towards successful neurological treatment is littered with failures.

礼来公司从其减肥药物中获得的收入正被明智地用于开发突破性药物。

The money that Lilly gets from its weight loss drug is being used wisely to come up with breakthrough drugs.

作为美国脑基金会的前代言人，我再怎么强调礼来公司的工作有多重要都不为过。

As a one time spokesperson for the American Brain Foundation, I can't stress enough just how important Lilly's work is.

不久之前，我前往西部考察了英伟达在医疗健康领域正在开展的一些令人惊叹的项目。

Not that long ago, I went out West to check-in on some of the incredible things that NVIDIA is working on in health care.

礼来公司与英伟达合作，针对那些只能通过人工智能发现的难治性疗法。

Elon Lilly's partners with them for, the intractables, treatments that can only be discovered by using AI.

在许多尝试都失败的疾病领域开发药物成本高昂。

It's expensive to develop drugs from diseases where so many have failed.

他们合作的希望是通过分析数百万条数据，找出可能可行的方案。

The hope for their partnership is to look through millions of pieces of data to find out something that might be workable.

让我们希望英伟达与礼来的合作能取得成果。

Let's hope that the NVIDIA Lilly partnership bears fruit.

让我们希望肽类食欲素能帮助治疗嗜睡症患者以及众多其他精神疾病患者。

Let's hope that the peptide orexin helps treat sufferers of narcolepsy and so many other mental illnesses.

让我们赞扬礼来公司致力于攻克那些几乎无人敢尝试的健康难题。

And let's praise Lilly for going after health issues that few else would attempt to try.

但最重要的是，让我们持有这只股票，因为我认为这款减肥药将成为一款爆款产品。

Most importantly though, let's own the stock because I think this weight loss pill will be a blockbuster.

正因如此，我们一直坚持将EL（礼来）纳入慈善信托的投资组合。

And that's why we've stuck with EL, l with Eli Lilly for the Charitable Trust.

嘿。

Hey.

顺便说一下，我们目前正在推出一项特别优惠，年费会员可节省100美元，还能获得我新书《如何在任何市场中赚钱》的亲签版。

By the way, we're running a special promotion right now where you can save $100 on annual membership, and you also get a signed copy of my new book, how to make money in any market.

只需扫描二维码或访问 cmbc/kramerbook 即可。

Just scan the QR code or head to cmbc/kramerbook.

很简单。

Pretty simple.

我觉得。

I think.

我喜欢说，总还有明天。

I like to say there's always tomorrow.

吉姆·克拉默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克拉默个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介此前发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将克拉默表达的任何观点视为特定的投资诱导或遵循特定策略的建议，而仅应将其视为他的个人观点。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克拉默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖于此。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我对失败毫无畏惧。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓进取的女性正在改变格局。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，而且

Life is short, and

要想成就大事，你就得有远大志向。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

新集数每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.