Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 4/16/26 封面

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 4/16/26

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 4/16/26

本集简介

聆听吉姆·克雷默为您拨开华尔街投资迷雾的个人指南,把握机遇、规避陷阱,唯一目标:助您赚钱。 Mad Money 免责声明 由Simplecast(AdsWizz公司旗下)提供支持。有关我们为广告目的收集和使用个人信息的详情,请访问 pcm.adswizz.com。

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情?

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Speaker 0

我对失败毫无畏惧。

I have no fear of failure.

Speaker 0

开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

Speaker 0

我最喜爱的建议之一是,想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my

Speaker 1

领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。

favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

Speaker 1

归根结底,就是要相信自己。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

Speaker 1

人生短暂,

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Speaker 1

而且

Life is short, and

Speaker 2

你必须志存高远,才能成就大事。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Speaker 3

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

Speaker 3

新集数每周二在您收听播客的任何平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 3

我的

My

Speaker 4

我的目标很简单,就是让你赚钱。

mission is simple, to make you money.

Speaker 4

我在这里为所有投资者创造公平的竞争环境。

I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.

Speaker 4

总有一个牛市存在,我承诺帮助你找到它。

There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.

Speaker 4

《疯狂金钱》现在开始。

Mad Money starts now.

Speaker 5

嘿,我是克莱默。

Hey, I'm Cramer.

Speaker 5

欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。

Welcome to Mad Money.

Speaker 5

欢迎来到克莱默世界。

Welcome to Cramerica.

Speaker 5

我的朋友们,对吧?

Do my friends?

Speaker 5

我只是想赚点小钱,我的工作不仅仅是娱乐,更是要教你们。

I'm just trying to make a little bit of money My job is not just to entertain, it's to teach you.

Speaker 5

所以请拨打180743给我打电话。

So call me 180743.

Speaker 5

在推特上关注我吉姆·克莱默。

Tweet me Jim Cramer.

Speaker 5

有些地方不对劲,我们必须谈谈。

Something is not right, and we gotta talk about it.

Speaker 5

还记得去年投机股席卷市场时发生的事吗?

Remember what happened last year when speculative stocks took over the market?

Speaker 5

它们一涨再涨,越涨越高,因为人们的懈怠和过度热情席卷了整个市场。

They climbed and they climbed and they climbed ever higher as complacency and over enthusiasm took over the field.

Speaker 5

我把那一年称为魔法投资之年。

I call it the year of magical investing.

Speaker 5

我当时说,趁它还在的时候好好享受吧,因为它终将结束,而且会以糟糕的方式收场。

I said enjoy it while it lasts because it's going to end and end badly.

Speaker 5

果然,到了十月,投机情绪达到了顶峰。

Sure enough, in the October, speculation peaked.

Speaker 5

魔法投资之年轰然崩塌。

And the year of magical investing came crashing down.

Speaker 5

我提起这些,是因为我们这里经历了一波巨大的上涨,今天这一波还在继续,道指上涨了115点,SB上涨了26%,纳斯达克微涨了0.36%。

I bring that up because we've had a huge run here, a run that continued today with the Dow gaining a 115 points, SB advancing point 26%, Nasdaq edging up point 36%.

Speaker 5

而那些同样的投机股,不幸的是,正引领着这波行情。

And those same speculative stocks, unfortunately, are leading the way.

Speaker 5

但让我们拆开来看,以便我告诉你真正发生了什么,因为我并不想让你受伤。

But let's pull it apart so I can tell you what's really going on because I don't want you to get hurt.

Speaker 5

首先,正如我昨晚解释的,我们已经迅速上涨了相当大的幅度。

First, as I explained last night, we've come up real far real fast.

Speaker 5

根据所有人的承认,这场涨势已经持续过久。

The rally is now long in the tooth by every single admission.

Speaker 5

然而,现在仍有很多人过于兴奋。

Nevertheless, there are plenty of people who get too enthusiastic right about now.

Speaker 5

每次市场上涨,他们都认为自己买进的任何东西都会继续上涨。

Every time there's a rally, they think that anything they buy goes higher.

Speaker 5

他们甚至觉得自己是天才。

They actually think they're geniuses.

Speaker 5

他们完全失去了纪律。

They lost all discipline.

Speaker 5

他们太过自大。

They're too cocky.

Speaker 5

和去年一样。

Same as last year.

Speaker 5

在买入股票时,自满并不是一种积极的态度。

Cocky is not a positive trade when you're buying stocks.

Speaker 5

他们什么都不知道。

They know nothing.

Speaker 5

令人难以置信的是,这些人今天对什么感到兴奋?

Incredibly, what did these people get excited about today?

Speaker 5

正是上次让他们赚了大钱、然后又亏了大钱的那些东西。

The exact same stuff that first made and then lost them tons of money last time.

Speaker 5

核能、量子计算和太空。

Nuclear power, quantum computing, and space.

Speaker 5

我喜欢核能,但即使监管环境更有利,它也不是一个好生意。

I love nuclear power, but even with a more favorable regulatory environment, it's just not a great business.

Speaker 5

建造核电站成本太高,而且顺便说一句,耗时太长。

Building nuclear plants cost too much, and and by the way, take way too long.

Speaker 5

这就是为什么绝大多数上市公司都不愿涉足核能领域。

That's why the vast majority of publicly traded utilities want nothing to do with them.

Speaker 5

尤其是南方公司遭遇了灾难性失败,它在试图完成四个新项目中的最后两个时出现了严重超支。

Not after the disastrous Southern Company, which had severe overruns when it tried to finish the last two out of four new projects that it had.

Speaker 5

南方公司花了十五年才建成两个新机组。

It took fifteen years for Southern to build two new units.

Speaker 5

这归因于设计复杂、供应链问题,以及承包商破产。

Thanks to design complexity and problems with the supply chain, as well as bankruptcy of the builder.

Speaker 5

这件事成了一个笑话。

It became a joke.

Speaker 5

所有可能出错的事情都出错了。

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

Speaker 5

最初的预算估计是140亿美元。

The original estimate, 14,000,000,000.

Speaker 5

最终成本约为360亿美元。

Final cost, about $36,000,000,000.

Speaker 5

听我说,我并没有否定核能。

Look, I'm not dismissing nuclear power.

Speaker 5

如果你想要清洁能源,它确实是最佳解决方案。

If you want clean energy, it is your best solution.

Speaker 5

我只是说,由于其复杂性,你需要选择那些规模更大、不会在建设过程中破产的公司。

I'm just saying that because of its complexity, you need to go with with bigger companies that aren't going go bankrupt during the construction.

Speaker 5

前几天我们在寻找折扣型成长股时,注意到了Vistra这家服务公司。

The other night is stocks when we ran looking for discounted growth name service Vistra.

Speaker 5

它是一家非常优秀的独立发电商,拥有大量的核能业务。

It's a very good independent power producer with plenty of nuclear exposure.

Speaker 5

我会买入它。

I'd buy it.

Speaker 5

我也看好康士伯能源,它正试图重启三哩岛核电站。

I also like Constellation Energy, which is trying to restart 3 Mile Island.

Speaker 5

这家公司懂核能,旗下拥有大量核电站,我认为在当前价位下它具有不错的价值。

The company knows nukes, has a bunch of nukes in its fleet, and I think represents decent value at these levels.

Speaker 5

我也喜欢通用电气维诺瓦公司。

I also like GE Vernova as well.

Speaker 5

那是核电站制造商,正在安大略省建造一座小型核反应堆。

That's the power plant maker, which is building a small form nuclear reactor in Ontario.

Speaker 5

它还与田纳西河流域管理局合作建设核电站。

It's also partners in building a nuclear reactor plant for the Tennessee Valley Authority.

Speaker 5

通用电气维诺瓦是一家出色的公司,今天我们在每月的CNBC投资俱乐部会议上讨论过它。

GE Renova is a terrific company, and we talked about that today at our monthly CNBC investing club meeting.

Speaker 5

我们对这些数据和时间表感到放心。

We're comfortable with the numbers and the time frame.

Speaker 5

那量子股票呢?

How about the quantum stocks?

Speaker 5

我相信有一天量子计算会变得非常重要,但今天还不是那一天。

I believe that one day quantum computing will be very important, but today is not that day.

Speaker 5

目前,上市公司都还只是科学项目。

Right now, the publicly traded companies are just science projects.

Speaker 5

它们都夸夸其谈。

They all talk a big game.

Speaker 5

但再说一遍,真正可行的量子业务只属于谷歌、IBM和霍尼韦尔。

But again, the only viable quantum businesses belong to Google, IBM, and Honeywell.

Speaker 5

我因为旅行信托而持有谷歌股票。

I own Google for the travel trust.

Speaker 5

我也认为IBM是个绝佳的投资标的。

I also think IBM's a terrific buyer.

Speaker 5

霍尼韦尔今年晚些时候将分拆其量子业务,名为Quantinium。

Honeywell's spinning off its quantum business known as Quantinium later this year.

Speaker 5

它持有该公司54%的股份。

It owns 54% of it.

Speaker 5

看起来超过50%了,但无论如何,这都是一个非常有价值的资产。

It looks a little more than 50, but it's still it's it's a very valuable asset.

Speaker 5

太空领域更容易投资,因为埃隆·马斯克即将为我们的带来SpaceX的巨额IPO,可能在今年夏天晚些时候。

Space is easier because of the mammoth IPO of SpaceX brought to us soon by Elon Musk, maybe later this summer.

Speaker 5

我觉得这会大获成功。

I think it's gonna be a huge hit.

Speaker 5

在此期间,任何看起来像SpaceX的公司股价都应上涨,包括火箭实验室。

In the interim, anything that looks like SpaceX should go higher, including Rocket Lab.

Speaker 5

我有幸投资了火箭实验室,因为它有18.5亿美元的待执行订单,这为其未来提供了极佳的可见性,今天股价上涨了很多。

I'm blessed in Rocket Lab because it's got a $1,850,000,000 backlog, giving them terrific visibility in the future that was up a lot today.

Speaker 5

不用说,想买到任何SpaceX的股票可能都很困难,但我认为它的表现会优于特斯拉。

Needless to say, to get your hands on any SpaceX might be difficult, but I think it'll be a better performing than Tesla.

Speaker 5

为什么我如此坚决地认为投机行为再次失控了?

Why am I so adamant that speculation is getting out of control again?

Speaker 5

首先,举个例子,必须提到一家叫Allbirds的公司。

Well, exhibit a has to be a company called Allbirds.

Speaker 5

我衣柜里有一双Allbirds的鞋子。

I got a pair of Allbirds in my closet.

Speaker 5

它们目前什么都没做。

They're not doing anything.

Speaker 5

我买它们的时候,它们还挺酷的。

When I bought them, they were cool.

Speaker 5

现在就没那么酷了。

Not so much now.

Speaker 5

这些新百伦,我的脚踝有点问题。

These, I think these new balances, I have a problem with my ankles.

Speaker 5

这些新百伦,说实话,要酷多了。

These new balances, think are a lot cooler, frankly.

Speaker 5

六周前,Allbirds 似乎正走向被遗忘的历史角落。

Six weeks ago, Allbirds seemed to be headed into the dustbin of history.

Speaker 5

股价曾跌到2美元,之后有所回升。

Stock was at $2 and changed.

Speaker 5

有几个人正在损失财富。

A couple is losing fortunes.

Speaker 5

自从上市以来,一直如此。

It has been ever since it came public.

Speaker 5

它根本不赚钱。

It doesn't make any money.

Speaker 5

但与其关门大吉,它做了一件我确信它自认为是天才的举动。

But rather than shut down, it did something I'm sure it thought was genius.

Speaker 5

Allbirds 将其鞋类业务出售给了美国交易所集团,并宣布与一家机构投资者达成了一项5000万美元的可转换债券协议,该协议——我直接引用公告内容——将使公司能够将其业务转向人工智能计算基础设施,并长期致力于成为一家完全集成的GPU即服务和AI原生云解决方案提供商。

Allbirds sold its shoe business to American Exchange Group and announced a definitive agreement with an institutional investor for a $50,000,000 convertible bond, which, and I'm quoting from the release here, will enable the company to pivot its business to AI compute infrastructure with a long term vision to become a fully integrated GPU as a service and AI native cloud solutions provider, end quote.

Speaker 5

然而,他们从休闲鞋转型到了人工智能领域,并将公司名称改为New Bird AI。

Yet they pivoted from casual shoes to AI, and they're changing the name to New Bird AI.

Speaker 5

该公司认为对计算能力的需求更大,并打算填补这一缺口。

The company sees a need for more compute, and it's gonna bridge the gap.

Speaker 5

他们表示,NewBird AI 将——我引用原文——最初寻求收购高性能、低延迟的计算硬件,并通过长期租赁方式提供访问权限,以满足现货市场和超大规模云服务商无法可靠服务的客户需求。

They say that NewBird AI will, and I quote, initially seek to acquire high performance, low latency compute hardware and provide access under long term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service, end quote.

Speaker 5

哦,我明白了。

Oh, I got it.

Speaker 5

计算资源短缺,而我们知道该找谁——一个卖休闲鞋的。

There's a compute shortage, and we know who to call a casual shoemaker.

Speaker 5

还有谁更懂呢?

Who would know more?

Speaker 5

我想不到还有谁比Allbirds的人更适合去和台积电讨价还价,或者跑去和英伟达的黄仁勋硬碰硬抢芯片了。

I can't think of anyone better positioned say to negotiate toe to toe with Taiwan Semiconductor or go out and hammer and tongs with Jensen Huang from NVIDIA for chips than the Allbirds people.

Speaker 5

你想想看。

Think about it.

Speaker 5

他们懂成本。

They know last.

Speaker 5

他们懂帆布。

They know canvas.

Speaker 5

他们懂橡胶鞋底。

They know rubber soles.

Speaker 5

当你在和迈克尔谈贸易或核心波段时,这三项是最重要的能力。

Those are three of the most valuable traits when you're butting up against Michael in trade or core wave.

Speaker 5

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 5

哦,当然了,他们可能觉得,如果交易员想从比特币矿机转向数据中心管理都可以,那制鞋商为什么不能这么做呢?

Oh, and of course, they probably think that if in trader wants a Bitcoin miner, can switch to a data center manager, why can't a shoemaker do the same thing?

Speaker 5

当然,这里有个简单的答案。

Of course, there's a simple answer.

Speaker 5

比特币矿机公司本来就把运营数据中心作为其业务的一部分。

Bitcoin miners already run data centers as part of their business.

Speaker 5

就连Allbirds都算不上一家成功的鞋业公司,天哪。

Walpers wasn't even a successful shoe company for heaven's sake.

Speaker 5

然而,就在这个爆炸性新闻传出的第二天,它的股价却飙升了近600%。

Yet the stock rallied nearly 600% yesterday on this boffo news story.

Speaker 5

不过这确实让我开始思考了。

It does have me thinking though.

Speaker 5

耐克的股票一直很难持有。

Nike's been a real tough stock to own.

Speaker 5

为什么不推出一个乔丹系列的GPU呢?

Why not open a Jordan line of GPUs?

Speaker 5

just do it.

Just do it.

Speaker 5

也许Holdings可以推出一系列始终在线的设备,与Core Weave竞争。

Maybe on holding could do a line of always on holding that could rival Core Weave.

Speaker 5

也许安德玛重返市场的办法是全面投入GPU领域。

Maybe the way for Under Armour to get back in the game is to go all in on GPUs.

Speaker 5

首席执行官凯文·普朗克想进军酒类行业。

CEO Kevin Plank wants to own the liquor business.

Speaker 5

他挺多才多艺的。

He's versatile.

Speaker 5

认真的,你想在这领域布局吗?

Seriously, you want exposure to this area?

Speaker 5

昨晚,实际上为英伟达生产芯片的台积电表示,CPU供应紧张。

Last night, Taiwan Semi, the actual maker of chips for NVIDIA, said that CPUs are in short supply.

Speaker 5

这意味着像其他人一样去买AMD和英特尔吧。

That means go buy AMD and Intel like everyone else.

Speaker 5

这些股票虽然波动很大,但肯定比买这个可转换债券强。

Those stocks rub a lot, but it's certainly better than buying this convert.

Speaker 5

我们正在买入这只股票。

We the buying the stock.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,我只是觉得,你知道我对这件事的看法。

I mean, I just think that well, you know how I feel about this.

Speaker 5

我没浪费时间,我有了个更好的主意。

I was not wasting I got a better idea.

Speaker 5

与其买Allbirds,不如买英伟达。

Instead of buying Allbirds, maybe buy NVIDIA.

Speaker 5

别说我疯了,但说到GPU和服务,我想选詹森,而不是Allbirds那些特别友善的人。

Call me crazy, but when it comes to GPUs and service, I wanna go with Jensen, not with the really nice people from Allbirds.

Speaker 5

我只是觉得他更懂行,对这个行业有真正的洞察。

I just think he knows more and has a real sense of the industry.

Speaker 5

Allbirds连鞋类都搞不明白。

Allbirds couldn't even figure out footwear.

Speaker 5

我还有一个想法。

And I have still one more idea.

Speaker 5

Allbirds,我是个点子机器。

Allbirds, I'm an idea machine.

Speaker 5

Allbirds 基本上正在这里创建一家全新的公司。

Allbirds is basically creating an all new company here.

Speaker 5

它在没有任何审查或实际监督的情况下进行,因为它可以悄悄进入一个已上市的空壳公司。

It's doing so without any vetting, any actual scrutiny because there's a publicly traded shell that it can creep into.

Speaker 5

在事情进一步发展之前,也许SEC该给这些‘鸟人’敲敲警钟。

Before this gets too far down the road, maybe the SEC gives the people from give the bird people, you know, a jingle.

Speaker 5

她也许只是,我不知道,审查一下这家公司,确保它不是一场巨大的笑话。

And she just maybe, I don't know, review the company and be sure it isn't just a colossal joke.

Speaker 5

听好了,我是个老派的自由市场支持者。

Look, I'm a free market guy from way back.

Speaker 5

但关键是,这个项目对我来说投机性太过了。

But the bottom line is this one's a speculative bridge too far from me.

Speaker 5

新的鸟形AI应该放在所有鸟类该待的地方——要么是衣柜后面,要么是笼子里。

New bird AI belongs where all birds belong, at the back of your closet, if not a cage.

Speaker 5

诺玛,新泽西。

Norma, New Jersey.

Speaker 5

诺玛。

Norma.

Speaker 6

嗨,吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

Speaker 6

你怎么样?

How are you?

Speaker 6

我正试图用我知道的股票来购买我投资组合中的一部分。

I'm trying to buy part of my stock portfolio with stocks that I know

Speaker 5

还有,是的。

and Yes.

Speaker 6

当我是客户并使用产品时。

And who when I'm a customer, and I use the product.

Speaker 6

我知道你总是推荐这样做,所以我试着这么做了。

I know you always recommend that, and so I tried to do that.

Speaker 6

我持有并想聊的股票是Cava。

The stock that I own and wanna talk about is Cava.

Speaker 6

我喜欢在他们的餐厅吃饭。

I enjoy eating in their cafe.

Speaker 6

我觉得这家快餐店的食物新鲜,性价比高。

I find the food fresh and good value for a fast food restaurant.

Speaker 6

我以88美元的价格购入了Cava。

I purchased Cabo at 88.

Speaker 6

等一下。

Hold on.

Speaker 6

我真的很喜欢红色。

And I'm really into red.

Speaker 6

你的意见呢?我该不该再买一些?

Your opinion, should I buy more?

Speaker 5

你处于亏损状态。

You're in the red.

Speaker 5

Cabo现在是91。

Cabo's at 91.

Speaker 5

你没有亏损。

You're not in the red.

Speaker 5

你做得很好。

You're doing great.

Speaker 5

我完全同意你的看法。

And I totally agree with you.

Speaker 5

212美元,Cabo。

212 Cabo.

Speaker 5

我只是觉得这正是你所说的。

I just think it's exactly what you said.

Speaker 5

我觉得它可能真的是下一个Chipotle。

I think it actually might be the next Chipotle.

Speaker 5

我希望你继续持有它。

I want you to hold on to it.

Speaker 5

如果价格下跌,我认为通常你应该加仓。

And if it comes down, I think, normally, you should buy more.

Speaker 5

谢谢你的来电。

And thank you for calling.

Speaker 5

我们不如联系一下俄亥俄州尤金的尤金?

How about we go to Eugene in Ohio, Eugene?

Speaker 7

太棒了,吉姆。

Booyah, Jim.

Speaker 7

有26人正在观看《疯狂金钱》。

26 watching mad money.

Speaker 5

我的天啊。

Holy cow.

Speaker 5

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 7

这里是俄亥俄州的伯灵顿。

Burlington, Ohio here.

Speaker 7

吉姆,我的动态在 Snapchat 上。

Jim, my play is on Snapchat.

Speaker 7

去看看她的 Snap。

Check her Snap.

Speaker 7

通过人工调查。

With human investigation.

Speaker 7

不。

No.

Speaker 7

那里有

There's

Speaker 5

什么都没有。

nothing there.

Speaker 5

我们就这么说吧,我已经跟这个 Snap 较劲好多年了,一直说别投资它。

Let let's just like you know, I've been fighting this Snap now for I don't know how many years saying don't invest in it.

Speaker 5

到目前为止,说实话,我看起来很不错。

So far, I'm looking pretty good, frankly.

Speaker 5

我们连线得克萨斯州的里奇吧。

Let's go to Rich in Texas.

Speaker 5

里奇。

Rich.

Speaker 8

嘿,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 8

来自得克萨斯州洛特斯的问候。

Hello from Lotus, Texas.

Speaker 8

你今天怎么样?

How are you doing today?

Speaker 5

我很好。

I'm doing well.

Speaker 5

你呢,里奇?

How are you, Rich?

Speaker 8

我状态很好。

I'm doing great.

Speaker 8

嘿,听我说。

Hey, listen.

Speaker 8

我以141美元的价格收购了这家社交媒体公司,后来因担心新墨西哥州对Meta的判决以及系统性盈利问题,将其账面价值下调至120美元。

I bought this social media company at 141 and wrote it down to a $120 under fears of the New Mexico judgment against meta and systemic profitability concerns.

Speaker 8

但随着它最近与Nectar Social达成交易,很明显,Reddit的盈利和增长将扩大。

But with its recent deal with Nectar Social, it's clear that Reddit's profit and growth will expand.

Speaker 8

但考虑到过去几周股价从42美元飙升至162美元,是否涨得太快了?

But given the hyperbolic gains of 42 a share over the past weeks to, $162, has

Speaker 9

是不是涨得太快了?

it gone too far too fast?

Speaker 5

没有。

No.

Speaker 5

没有。

No.

Speaker 5

Reddit 不应该跌得那么多。

Reddit should not have been down that much.

Speaker 5

我相信史蒂夫·霍夫曼会来,因为他知道我认为 Reddit 是一家非常有价值的企业。

I believe Steve Hoffman would come on because he knows how much I think Reddit is a very, very valuable company.

Speaker 5

我得告诉你,如果我有更大的公司,能拿下这310亿美元的生意,我一定会这么做。

And I gotta tell you, if I had a bigger company than I could and snap up that $31,000,000,000 business, I would do it.

Speaker 5

我觉得你可以通过他们的平台进行训练。

I think that there you can train on their stuff.

Speaker 5

这非常令人兴奋。

It's very exciting.

Speaker 5

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 5

它在过去一周涨了很多,但许多其他股票也是如此。

It's been up a lot in last week, but so are many other stocks.

Speaker 5

我真的认为这是你想要持有的股票。

I really think that that is one that you want to own.

Speaker 5

好了,各位。

Okay, guys.

Speaker 5

听我说。

Listen to me.

Speaker 5

股票代码是鸟。

The symbol is bird.

Speaker 5

明白吗?

Alright?

Speaker 5

我支持自由市场,但目前所有鸟类股票的情况对我来说太过投机了。

I am all for free markets, but what's happening with all birds is just one speculative bridge just too far from me.

Speaker 5

从资金角度看,Shake Shack的股票今年被搁置了。

On the money side, shares of Shake Shack have been put on the back burner this year.

Speaker 5

但这家汉堡连锁店能否为你带来可观的回报?

But could the burger chain start serving up some big gains for you?

Speaker 5

我正在仔细研究。

I'm taking a closer look.

Speaker 5

然后,哇,它今天正式推出了,麦迪逊空气解决方案公司。

Then, wow, it it debuted today, Madison Air Solutions.

Speaker 5

你听到那些人说,马特,当我早上9点试图做节目时,他们不让我思考。

You hear them people going like, Matt, when I was trying to do the show at 09:00 and they wouldn't let me think.

Speaker 5

没关系。

That's okay.

Speaker 5

我不需要思考。

I don't need to think.

Speaker 5

我直接做就行了。

I can just do it.

Speaker 5

我读提词卡。

I read cue cards.

Speaker 5

其实也不是。

Actually not.

Speaker 5

但我正在念这个名字,告诉你它是否值得买入,而博里奇在维持我们金融市场的运转中扮演着关键角色。

But I'm running through the name to tell you if it's a buy, and Borridge plays a pivotal role in keeping our financial markets running.

Speaker 5

那么,为什么这只股票被狠狠打压了?

So why has this stock been taken to the woodshed?

Speaker 5

我说我们去问问高层到底怎么回事。

I say we talk to the top brass to find out.

Speaker 5

请继续关注克拉默。

So stay with Cramer.

Speaker 10

不要错过任何一秒钟的疯狂金钱。

Don't miss a second of mad money.

Speaker 10

在X上关注吉姆·克拉默。

Follow at Jim Cramer on x.

Speaker 10

有问题吗?

Have a question?

Speaker 10

给克拉默发推文。

Tweet Cramer.

Speaker 10

标签:疯狂提及。

Hashtag mad mentions.

Speaker 10

给吉姆发邮件至 madmoney@CNBC.com,或拨打 180743 联系我们。

Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.

Speaker 10

错过了什么?

Missed something?

Speaker 10

前往 madmoney.cnbc.com。

Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

Speaker 0

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事?

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Speaker 0

我毫不畏惧失败。

I have no fear of failure.

Speaker 0

开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

Speaker 0

其中之一

One of

Speaker 1

我最欣赏的建议之一:想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

Speaker 1

领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

Speaker 1

归根结底,就是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Speaker 1

人生短暂,而且

Life is short, and

Speaker 2

你必须要想着如何成就大事。

you just gotta think to accomplish big things.

Speaker 3

朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

Speaker 3

每周二在您收听播客的平台上线新一期节目。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 5

人人都喜欢Shake Shack,这家汉堡连锁店最初是从麦迪逊广场公园里的一家热狗摊起步的。

Everybody Everybody likes Shake Shack, the burger chain that started as a hot dog cart in Madison Square Park.

Speaker 5

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 5

这就是为什么这只股票一直让人这么沮丧。

And that's why the stock's been so frustrating.

Speaker 5

当你走进一家Shake Shack,通常都会排着队,而且那里的汉堡是你能吃到的最好的之一。

When you walk into a Shake Shack, there's usually a line, and it's one of the best burgers you can get.

Speaker 5

然而,如果你五年前花1000美元买了Shake Shack的股票,如今只剩下大约850美元。

Yet if you bought $1,000 with a Shake Shack five years ago, you'd have only about $850 left today.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,这回报率确实不算理想。

I mean, call it, don't have a suboptimal return.

Speaker 5

公司在新冠疫情来袭时经营状况良好,但疫情重创了他们的业务,Shake Shack花了三年时间才重新实现盈利。

Company was doing great when COVID showed up, but the pandemic gutted their business, and it took three years for Shake Shack to become profitable again.

Speaker 5

即使世界重新开放后,Shake Shack仍需向华尔街证明更多价值。

Even after the world reopened, Shake Shack still had to prove more to Wall Street.

Speaker 5

投资者越来越不愿意为那些感觉特别但效率不够高的公司支付溢价。

Investors became less willing to pay up for companies that felt special, but didn't look efficient enough.

Speaker 5

随后,共和党推动的减重担忧爆发,消费者也开始对高价表示抵制。

Then the GOP dash one weight loss worries hit, and consumers also started pushing back against high prices.

Speaker 5

Chezio不可能便宜。

Chezio can't exactly cheap.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,如果你想吃一顿正经的饭,比如汉堡、薯条和汽水,至少得花20美元。

I mean, you're going to spend at least $20 if you want a real meal, a burger, fries, and a soda.

Speaker 5

这是一家高端快餐连锁店。

It's a premium fast food chain.

Speaker 5

这种店并不多。

There are not a lot of those.

Speaker 5

很难找到确切的竞争对手,但这意味着你得支付溢价价格。

It's hard to figure out what the peers are, but that does mean you pay premium prices.

Speaker 5

不过我提到这些,是因为我认为这家公司的业务在近几年有了显著改善。

I bring all this up though because I think the business has improved dramatically in recent years.

Speaker 5

这一点在股价上并没有真正体现出来,即使今年到目前为止股价已经上涨了近23%。

Something that's not really reflected in the share price, even with the stocks nearly 23% bounce year to date.

Speaker 5

让我坐好。

Let me set the seat.

Speaker 5

疫情之后,这家企业直到2023年才真正恢复活力,当时Shake Shack的营收达到10.8亿美元,利润为162亿美元。

After the pandemic, the business only really got going again in 2023 when Shake Shack's revenue hit $1,080,000,000 with profits of $16,200,000,000.

Speaker 5

2024年,营收攀升至12.53亿美元,尽管牛肉价格上涨,净利润仍增长至4050万美元。

In 2024, the revenue climbed to $1,253,000,000, net income still growing to $40,500,000 despite rising beef prices.

Speaker 5

去年,营收达到14.45亿美元,利润则跃升至5830万美元。

Then last year, revenue hit 1,445,000,000, and then income jumped to 58,300,000.

Speaker 5

所以简而言之,根据这个趋势,我认为Shake Shack已经重回正轨了。

So I mean, long story short with that trajectory, I think Shake Shack's back.

Speaker 5

这其中很大一部分要归功于罗布·林奇,我们节目里请过他好几次。

Now a lot of that is thanks to Rob Lynch, a guy we've had on the show a bunch of times.

Speaker 5

他真的非常出色。

He's just terrific.

Speaker 5

他于2024年3月接任Shake Shack的首席执行官。

He took over as CEO of Shake Shack in March 2024.

Speaker 5

此前他长期担任并成功扭转了Papa John's的经营局面。

After a long stint running, and I think turning around Papa John's.

Speaker 5

林奇接手时,他面对的不是一个破损的品牌。

When Lynch took over, he didn't hurt a broken brand.

Speaker 5

他接手的是一个深受喜爱、只是需要更好执行的品牌。

He got a beloved brand that simply needed better execution.

Speaker 5

这就是这里的机遇。

That's the opportunity here.

Speaker 5

你看,Shake Shack 从未需要修复它的产品——汉堡。

You see, Shake Shack never had to fix the product, its burger.

Speaker 5

它的汉堡从未变差。

It never went bad.

Speaker 5

它需要修复的是围绕汉堡的运营体系,而这正是林奇一直在做的。

It had to fix the machine around the burger, and that's exactly what Lynch has been doing.

Speaker 5

他非常擅长这类事情。

He's great at that stuff.

Speaker 5

你已经能在更深层的数据中看到一些成效了。

You can already see some of that deeper in the numbers.

Speaker 5

公司全年餐厅层面的利润率达到了22.6%,这得益于运营改进、供应链成本节约和劳动力效率提升。

The company's restaurant level margin got to 22.6% for the full year, driven by operational improvements, supply chain savings, and labor efficiency.

Speaker 5

新店的建设成本下降了20%。

Build costs for new stores came down 20%.

Speaker 5

这一点非常重要,因为投资者不仅希望增加门店数量。

That matters a lot because investors don't just want more locations.

Speaker 5

他们更希望看到回报更高的门店扩张。

They want more locations with better returns.

Speaker 5

自2026年初以来,该股票已上涨近23%。

The stock's now up nearly 23% since the start of 2026.

Speaker 5

Shake Shack 很有可能在五月初再次发布财报。

There's a real chance that Shake Shack reports again in early May.

Speaker 5

同店销售额将处于预期区间的高位,这得益于优惠促销活动。

Same store sales will come in at the high end of expectations, helped by value offers.

Speaker 5

我们非常看好本季度菜单创新和运营改善的趋势。

We love those menu innovation and improving trends over the course of the quarter.

Speaker 5

但即使本季度表现强劲,管理层也可能不会急于上调全年预测,因为牛肉价格正在上涨,而且他们的国际特许经营业务对中东地区有显著敞口。

But even if the quarter strong, management may not rush to raise their full year forecast because beef prices are rising, And their international licensing business has meaningful exposure to The Middle East.

Speaker 5

这可能为你提供一个买入机会,但我得告诉你,这会对业绩造成压力。

That could potentially give you a buying opportunity, but I'd have to tell you, it's gonna hurt the numbers.

Speaker 5

但从长期来看,我认为Shake Shack最大的优势在于,他们没有像许多其他餐饮连锁那样疏远自己的客户群体——你知道,那些地方把价格涨得太高,顾客非常不满。

Long term though, I think Shake Shack's biggest advantage is the fact that they haven't alienated their customer basis base like so many other restaurant chains, which have, you know, you know, they took the price up a lot these places, people got very upset.

Speaker 5

过去几年,大多数连锁店过于依赖提价。

Most chains spent the last few years leaning too hard on price.

Speaker 5

他们不断推高菜单价格,有时是因为不得不如此,有时则是因为他们可以这么做而不受惩罚。

They kept pushing menu prices higher and higher, sometimes because they had to and sometimes because they could get away with it.

Speaker 5

在这个过程中,顾客感到被宰了。

In the process, customer felt ripped off.

Speaker 5

而Shake Shack一直偏向保守定价,对提价相对谨慎,并始终确保菜单上保留一些更便宜的选择。

While Shake Shack's kind of always been on these pensive side, they were less aggressive with the price hikes, and they always made sure to keep some cheaper alternatives on the menu.

Speaker 5

历史上,Shake Shack在营销方面的投入一直不足。

Now historically, Shake Shack is underinvested in marketing.

Speaker 5

现在他们已经稳定盈利,因此确实有强烈的意愿增加广告投入。

Now that they're firmly profitable, again, there's a real push to spend more on ads.

Speaker 5

我认为这是一个明智的举措。

I think that's a smart move.

Speaker 5

这个品牌仍有很大的空间来扩大其受众群体。

This is a brand that still has lots of room left to widen its audience.

Speaker 5

此外,还有一些运营方面的因素,其重要性往往被人们忽视。

And then there is the operational stuff that matters more than people usually realize.

Speaker 5

这不仅仅是关于广告和新菜单的问题。

This is not just about ads and new menu listies.

Speaker 5

这其实是一个产能问题。

There it's a throughput issue.

Speaker 5

他们在门店中的运营正变得越来越快、越来越高效。

They're getting faster and tighter in the stores.

Speaker 5

订单处理时间已经得到改善。

Ticket times have improved.

Speaker 5

现在自助点餐机的订单量已占店内总订单的一半以上。

Kiosks now account for more than half of the in shackle.

Speaker 5

我甚至可以用自助点餐机。

I can even use the kiosk.

Speaker 5

我其实已经弄懂了它们的操作,但我本来就不擅长用自助点餐机。

I actually figured them out, and I'm terrible at kiosk.

Speaker 5

人力调配变得更加聪明了。

Labor deployments gotten smarter.

Speaker 5

一些小型设备和厨房布局的调整,能提升出餐速度、保持一致性,并减少浪费。

There are small equipment changes and kitchen changes that can improve speed speed consistency and get rid of waste.

Speaker 5

这些改进虽然不炫目,但却提升了出餐效率,而效率正是这个行业成败的关键。

Now none of that's flashy, but it improves throughput and throughputs the name of the game in this business.

Speaker 5

当然,这并不意味着风险已经消失。

Of course, that does not mean the risk is gone.

Speaker 5

对于 Shake Shack 来说,最大的变量仍然是牛肉。

The biggest swing factor for shake shack is still beef.

Speaker 5

股票一直与牛只和牛肉亏损紧密相关,更多是受原材料影响而非公司本身。

The stocks been heavily tied to cattle and beef losses, the stock more than the company.

Speaker 5

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 5

这也是为什么它的表现一直令人沮丧的原因之一。

Which is one reason why it's been such a frustrating performer.

Speaker 5

如果牛肉价格上涨,利润率就会受到冲击,进而股价也会被拖累。

If beef spikes, the margins get hit and then the margin and then the stock gets punished.

Speaker 5

没错。

That that's right.

Speaker 5

但即便林奇做得很好,即便客流量稳定,即便长期的增长故事正在改善,只要投入成本不利,这股票依然可能被打压。

But even so even if Lynch is doing a good job, even if traffic's holding up, even if the long term Munich growth story is improving, this thing can still get clipped if input costs move against them.

Speaker 5

这就是这个行业的真实状况,我在德克萨斯路屋也见过。

That's just the reality of the business I saw with with the Texas Roadhouse.

Speaker 5

而过去几年,牛肉价格一直朝着不利的方向变动。

And for the past few years now, beef's been moving in the wrong direction.

展开剩余字幕(还有 466 条)
Speaker 5

我们还需要考虑一些宏观因素,比如世界杯可能产生影响,尤其是考虑到有很多Shake Shack门店位于主办城市和高流量区域。

There are also some macro considerations we had to talk The World Cup could matter, especially given how many Shake Shack locations sit in your host cities and high traffic areas.

Speaker 5

我不希望过分强调这一点。

I don't wanna overemphasize that point.

Speaker 5

这并不是康菲石油那样的公司,它能从世界杯中赚大钱。

This isn't Constellation Brands, which will make a fortune from the World Cup.

Speaker 5

但可以说,Shake Shack今年夏天的客流量可能比普通汉堡连锁店获得更多助力。

But it's fair to say Shake Shack may have more traffic help coming this summer than the average burger chain.

Speaker 5

然后就是至关重要的门店扩张。

Then there's the all important store growth.

Speaker 5

Shake Shack去年开设了45家新门店,今年预计其门店规模将增长约15%,现金回报率正朝着50%迈进。

Shake Shack put up 45 new locations last year, and this year, it's expected to grow its footprint by around 15% with cash on cash returns moving toward 50%.

Speaker 5

如果公司能持续改善单店经济效益,那么它将不再被视为一个复苏故事,而会重新成为曾经那个伟大的增长故事。

If the company can keep getting better unit economics, then this stops being viewed as a recovery story and starts becoming the great growth story that it used to be.

Speaker 5

当然,这只股票已经让人失望六年了,但正因如此,我认为它特别有意思。

Of course, the stock's been a disappointment for six years now, but that's exactly why I think it's really interesting.

Speaker 5

市场的预期被重新调整了。

The s expectations got reset.

Speaker 5

这个故事不再那么浪漫了。

Story got less romantic.

Speaker 5

市场变得更严峻了。

The market got tougher.

Speaker 5

就在这一切之中,业务实际上似乎显著改善了。

And in the middle of all that, the business actually seems to improve dramatically.

Speaker 5

因此,我认为 Shake Shack 不应永远被它的声誉拖累。

That's why I think Shake Shack should not be held down forever by its reputation.

Speaker 5

如果首席执行官罗布·林奇继续他刚开始做的事情——优化运营、降低建造成本和食材成本、维护客户关系、更智慧地投入品牌建设,并在扩张的同时不破坏让 Shake Shack 独特的东西。

If CEO Rob Lynch keeps doing what he started doing, tightening operations, lowering building cost, a bill cost, protecting the customer relationship, spending more intelligence behind the brand, and scaling without messing up what made Shake Shack special.

Speaker 5

那么这家公司完全有可能成为那种在股价真正起飞前默默自我重塑的故事。

Then this can absolutely become one of those stories where the company quietly fits itself up before the stock really caught on.

Speaker 5

这并不意味着 Shake Shack 的股价会直线上升。

Doesn't mean Shake Shack will go straight up.

Speaker 5

我跟你说过,我再怎么强调牛肉有多难搞都不为过。

I told you I I I can't emphasize enough how tough beef is.

Speaker 5

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 5

这里的高市盈率仍然可能对他们造成伤害。

The high priced earnings multiple here also can still hurt them.

Speaker 5

一个糟糕的季度就可能让股价大幅波动。

One bad quarter can still knock the stock around.

Speaker 5

但总的来说,当你放眼全局,前景已经相当清晰了。

But the bottom line, when you zoom out the picture looks pretty clear.

Speaker 5

Shake Shack原本经营良好,却被新冠疫情重创,之后销售额率先回升,利润却滞后。

Shake Shack was doing well got floored by Covid then sales came back first with profits lagging.

Speaker 5

现在看来,这场复苏可能真的要实现了。

Now finally looks like the turnaround may be real.

Speaker 5

我知道我是个坚定的支持者,更重要的是,我是个满意的顾客。

I know I'm a believer, and more importantly, I am a satisfied customer.

Speaker 5

广告结束后,资金又回来了。

And money's back after the break.

Speaker 10

接下来,2026年迄今为止规模最大的IPO刚刚公布。

Coming up, the largest IPO of 2026 so far just dropped.

Speaker 10

那么,你应该入场买入吗?

So should you be buying in?

Speaker 10

克拉默正在研究麦迪逊航空,看看它有多大的潜力。

Cramer's looking into Madison Air to see how fresh it could be.

Speaker 10

接下来。

Next.

Speaker 0

这让你有信心去完成以前没人做过的事吗?

Made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Speaker 0

我对失败毫无畏惧。

I have no fear of failure.

Speaker 0

开拓者

Trailblazing

Speaker 1

我最喜欢的一条建议是:想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

Speaker 1

领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

Speaker 1

归根结底,还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Speaker 1

人生短暂,

Life is short,

Speaker 2

要想成就大事,就得有远大的志向。

and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Speaker 3

朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

Speaker 3

新节目每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 5

随着市场已从伊朗相关疲软中完全恢复,并再次创下历史新高,IPO窗口重新开启也就顺理成章了。

With the market now fully recovered from its Iran related weakness and back to setting fresh all time highs, it makes sense that the IPO window would open again.

Speaker 5

果然,今天我们迎来了今年最大的退市案——麦迪逊空气解决方案的IPO。

And sure enough, today, we got the largest delisting of the year, the IPO of Madison Air Solutions.

Speaker 5

对于游戏玩家来说,这就是MAIR,一家商用空气流动与冷却公司。

That's MAIR for you home gamers, which is a commercial airflow and cooling company.

Speaker 5

好吧。

Alright.

Speaker 5

这个案例很有趣,因为麦迪逊空气瞄准了半导体生产、先进制造,当然还有数据中心等极具吸引力的终端市场。

This one's intriguing because Madison Air places some really attractive end markets like semiconductor production, advanced manufacturing, and of course, for the data center.

Speaker 5

因此,今晚我想带你们深入了解这个故事。

That's why tonight, I wanna walk you through this story.

Speaker 5

风力发电机的画面,再棒不过了。

Pictures of windmills, can't beat that.

Speaker 5

我们先从基础开始。

Let's start with the basics.

Speaker 5

麦迪逊空气自称是关键任务室内空气解决方案市场的领导者。

Madison Air calls itself a, quote, leader in the mission critical indoor air solutions market.

Speaker 5

你是关键任务型的吗?

Are you mission critical?

Speaker 5

我是关键任务型的。

I'm mission critical.

Speaker 5

为客户提供先进的空气解决方案。

Offering its customers advanced air yeah.

Speaker 5

为客户提供先进的空气流动和冷却技术,这些技术能够提供卓越的空气质量与切实成果:更高的生产效率、更低的能源成本,并在最严苛的环境中提升运营表现。

Offering its customers advanced airflow and cooling technologies that, quote, deliver superior air quality and tangible results, higher productivity, lower energy costs, and improve operational performance in the most demanding environments.

Speaker 5

他们的业务包括数据中心冷却单元、为半导体制造设施净化空气的部门、一个我无法在广播中说出名称的商用大流量低速风扇业务,以及几个专注于家用的品牌,主营空气净化器和加湿器。

Their quote, their business includes a data center cooling unit, a division that purifies air for semiconductor fabrication facilities, a commercial high volume, low speed fan business with the name I can't repeat on air, and a couple residential focused brands that think air purifiers and humidifiers.

Speaker 5

总体而言,麦迪逊空气63%的销售额来自商用产品,其余37%来自家用产品。

Overall, 63% of Madison Air sales come from commercial products, with the other 37% being residential.

Speaker 5

有时候,公司在上市时会为自己编织过于夸张的故事,制造一点神秘感,而这里就发生了一些这样的情况。

Now sometimes companies can go a little overboard in creating a story for themselves, little bit of mystique as they come public, and some of that's happening here.

Speaker 5

麦迪逊空气在招股说明书中表示,其专注于‘空气回报率’(ROA),他们将其定义为空气成为战略资产时所产生的有形价值。

Madison Air said in its prospectus that it's focused on ROA or return on air, which they define as the tangible value created when air becomes a strategic asset.

Speaker 5

他们引用了各种统计数据来阐述这一点。

They cite all kinds of stats to elaborate on this.

Speaker 5

他们的设备可以通过防止数据中心停机,每分钟节省高达9000美元。

Their equipment can save up to $9,000 per minute by preventing downtime downtime for data centers.

Speaker 5

洁净室气流控制可将污染事件减少多达30%。

Clean room airflow control can reduce contamination instance by up to 30%.

Speaker 5

在空气质量改善的教室中,学生的标准化测试成绩最高可提升5%,诸如此类。

Standardized test scores go up as much as 5% for students in classrooms with improved air quality, and so on and so forth.

Speaker 5

我得说,我对这个ROA(空气回报率)的概念无动于衷。

I gotta tell you, I'm unmoved by this idea of ROA, return on air.

Speaker 5

Madison公司根本没必要如此夸大其词。

There's no need for Madison here to overhype itself like this.

Speaker 5

归根结底,我们谈论的是一家为一系列有吸引力的终端市场制造高质量产品的企业。

At the end of the day, we're talking about a company that makes high quality products for a series of attractive end markets.

Speaker 5

再说,你到底需要什么?

What's more do you what what what do you need, frankly?

Speaker 5

这基本上是一次成功的整合,过去十年里通过一系列明智的收购,把自己打造成了一个空气流动与冷却领域的巨头。

This is basically a successful roll up that's made a bunch of smart acquisitions over the past decade to build itself into an airflow and cooling powerhouse.

Speaker 5

这才是看待麦迪逊空气公司的最佳方式。

That's the best way to think about Madison Air.

Speaker 5

这是一家精明的整合公司,拥有极具吸引力的一系列工业终端市场。

It's a shrewd roll up with an attractive set of industrial end markets.

Speaker 5

它与富兰克林电力解决方案有些相似。

It's somewhat similar to Fortune Power Solutions.

Speaker 5

另一个我们喜欢整合的电气设备领域公司,曾是当年最大的IPO,直到麦迪逊空气强势登场。

Another one we like to roll up of the electrical equipment space, which was the largest IPO of the year until Madison Air came strong came along.

Speaker 5

所以,这就是基本情况。

So that's the basic story here.

Speaker 5

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 5

数字表现如何?

How do the numbers look?

Speaker 5

老实说,还不错。

Honestly, pretty good.

Speaker 5

在去年收购Aprilaire后,我们做了一些调整以平滑数据,可以看出,Madison Air的调整后收入从2023年的30亿美元增长到2024年的31亿美元,然后跃升至2025年的35亿美元,同比增长13%。

Making some adjustments to smooth out the numbers after the acquisition of Aprilaire last year, we can see that Madison Air's pro form a revenue grew modestly from $3,000,000,000 in 2023 to 3,100,000,000 in 2024, then jumped to $3,500,000,000 in 2025, a 13% increase from the prior year.

Speaker 5

Madison的收入增长正在加速,这使得整个故事更加出色。

The fact that Madison is accelerating revenue growth, ARG, makes the story even better.

Speaker 5

这些公司也实现了稳定的盈利,过去几年其EBITDA利润率从20%出头提升至25%左右。

Companies also solidly profitable with their EBITDA margins rising from the low 20s to the mid 20s over the past few years.

Speaker 5

还不错。

Pretty good.

Speaker 5

还有别的吗?

What else?

Speaker 5

首先,资产负债表看起来没问题。

First, the balance sheet looks fine here.

Speaker 5

Madison Air将把此次IPO的所有募集资金,即超过20亿美元,用于偿还债务。

Madison Air is gonna use all the proceeds from this IPO, meaning over $2,000,000,000 to pay down debt.

Speaker 5

之后,它的净债务预计约为33亿美元,杠杆倍数约为3.5倍,这在该行业中完全不算差,尤其是对于一次整合收购而言。

After that, it's supposed to have about $3,300,000,000 in net debt and a leverage ratio of about three and a half times, which is not bad at all in this industry, especially from a roll up.

Speaker 5

该公司现金流也很强劲,我喜欢看到它去年的订单总额达到了43.9亿美元。

The company also has strong cash flows, and I like to see that it had $4,390,000,000 in orders last year.

Speaker 5

到2025年底,它的未完成订单 backlog 刚刚超过20亿美元。

And it ended 2025 with a backlog that was just over $2,000,000,000.

Speaker 5

总体而言,麦迪逊空气公司的数据非常强劲。

Again, the numbers are overall really strong for Madison Air.

Speaker 5

所以这家公司有着不错的故事和令人印象深刻的财务表现。

So this company's got a good story, impressive financials.

Speaker 5

但如果股票在上市首日上涨了17%以上,那这里的估值又如何呢?

But what about the valuation here if the stock shot up more than 17% today as part of the of the debut?

Speaker 5

发行价定在提议区间的上限,为27美元。

The deal price is 27 at the high end of the proposed range.

Speaker 5

股票开盘花了很长时间。

Took a long time to get the stock open.

Speaker 5

今天,它的开盘价为32美元,收盘时为31美元。

Today, it opened for trading at $32 before finishing the session at $31.

Speaker 5

31美元多一点。

31 and change.

Speaker 5

我认为评估麦迪逊航空估值的最佳方式是使用企业倍数,即企业价值。

I think the best way to look at the valuation for Madison Air is with what's known as an enterprise multiple, measured as enterprise value.

Speaker 5

企业价值指的是市值加上净债务,再除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益。

Enterprise value means, that's the market capitalization plus net debt divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization.

Speaker 5

对于资本密集型行业,用这种方式评估比市盈率更有意义。

For anything capital intensive, that's a more informative way to look at things than the price earnings multiple.

Speaker 5

我们得使用去年的数据。

We have to use last year's numbers.

Speaker 5

这并不理想,我知道,因为我们缺乏足够信息来对2026年做出哪怕粗略的预测。

Not ideal, I know, because we don't have enough information to come up with even a back of the envelope forecast for 2026.

Speaker 5

我想把麦迪逊与Vertiv进行比较,Vertiv是我非常看好的一家公司,是数据中心电力和冷却设备的领先供应商,还有三家经典的暖通空调(HVAC)公司:开利全球、江森自控和特灵科技。

I wanna compare Madison to Vertiv, another company I really like, a leading supplier of power and cooling equipment for the data center, as well as three classic heating, ventilation, air conditioner, HVAC companies, Carrier Global, Johnson Controls, and Trane Technologies.

Speaker 5

当你把这些股票放在一起比较时,我不得不说,我认为麦迪逊航空的估值相当合理。

When you stack these stocks up against each other, I have to say that I think Madison Air looks pretty darn reasonable.

Speaker 5

在接近32美元的价格下,该公司的企业价值倍数约为20。

At nearly $32, the company has an earnings an enterprise multiple of around 20.

Speaker 5

这远低于Vertiv,但这是合理的,因为Vertiv的盈利增长更好,且纯粹是数据中心和工业领域的公司。

That's well below Vertiv, but it makes sense as Vertiv has better earnings growth and is strictly a data center and industrial story.

Speaker 5

20的企业价值倍数基本与我提到的三家传统暖通空调公司相当,它们的企业价值倍数在16到25之间,尽管麦迪逊去年的EBITDA增长率是这些公司中最高的。

An enterprise multiple of 20 is basically in line with the three classic HVAC players I mentioned, which have enterprise multiples in the range of 16 to 25, despite the fact that Madison has the best EBITDA growth of any of these companies last year.

Speaker 5

所以你知道吗?

So you know what?

Speaker 5

我认为MAIR或MAIR现在就可以买入,即使股价已经强劲上涨。

I think MAIR or MAIR can be bought right here, right now, even after the stock's strong debut.

Speaker 11

买入。

Buy.

Speaker 11

买入。

Buy.

Speaker 11

买入。

Buy.

Speaker 5

对于初始目标价,我给出41美元,这将使该公司与这里最昂贵的暖通空调公司特灵估值相当。

For an initial price target, I'll throw out $41, which would give the company roughly the same valuation as Trane, the most expensive HVAC comparison here.

Speaker 5

当然,我们得等到分析师静默期结束后再看预测数据如何,但我对此非常乐观。

Of course, we'll have to see how the estimate looks once the analyst quiet period ends, but I'm pretty optimistic about this.

Speaker 5

事实上,因为我喜欢这个故事,也喜欢这个股票代码,我打算做一件我通常不会做的事——除非是像微软、微软先生,或者当然还有NVIDIA这样非常成熟的公司,而NVIDIA是我已故狗狗的名字。

In fact, because I like the story and because I like the ticker, I'm gonna do something that I don't usually do except for for really well established companies, like, Microsoft, mister Softy, or of course, NVIDIA, which is the name of my late dog.

Speaker 5

我要给麦迪逊空气解决方案公司起个绰号,叫‘东镇市长’,灵感来自最近最棒的HBO剧集之一。

I'm gonna give Madison Air Solutions a nickname, mayor of Easttown, after one of the best HBO shows in recent memory.

Speaker 5

这是我见过最地道的宾夕法尼亚州特拉华县口音模仿,真实得令人痛苦,即使我自己来自邻近的蒙哥马利县。

Most authentic Delaware County, Pennsylvania accent impression that I've ever seen, painfully authentic, even as I am from bordering Montgomery County.

Speaker 5

但关键是。

But here's the bottom line.

Speaker 5

市场已经反弹,IPO市场也已重新开放,迎来了今年最大的一笔交易。

The market has bounced back, and now the IPO market has reopened for business with the largest deal of the year.

Speaker 5

幸运的是,这是一次不错的上市。

Fortunately, it was a good one.

Speaker 5

我喜欢你故事里的麦迪逊。

I like the Madison in your story.

Speaker 5

我喜欢这些数据,即使在定价坚挺、今天开盘良好的情况下,价格对我来说依然不错。

I like the numbers, and the price still looks fine to me even after solid pricing and a good open today.

Speaker 5

即使经历了这次上涨,我认为‘东镇市长’仍然是一个买入标的。

Even after this move, I think mayor of Easttown is a buy.

Speaker 5

全体上车。

All aboard.

Speaker 5

萨姆,宾夕法尼亚。

Sam Pennsylvania.

Speaker 5

萨姆。

Sam.

Speaker 12

吉姆,我这里有一只股票,是Enphase Energy。

Jim, so I got a stock here at Enphase Energy.

Speaker 12

这只股票我已经投资一段时间了。

It's a stock that I've been investing in for a while.

Speaker 12

这家公司最近一直表现不佳,但现在正在复苏。

The company has been struggling recently, but there is a rebound going on.

Speaker 12

这家公司的有趣之处在于,他们将2%的利润率压力归因于关税。

What's interesting with the company is that they have a 2% margin headwind that they attribute to the tariffs.

Speaker 12

当然,随着IEPA的裁决,原本构成压力的关税现在将转变为助力。

Of course, with the IEPA ruling, those tariffs are now what has been a headwind is going be a tailwind.

Speaker 12

克里斯,你如何看待由于这2%的改善所带来的利润率扩张潜力?

Chris, what do you think about the potential for margin expansion as a as a result of this 2% expansion?

Speaker 12

我还希望公司管理层考虑将逆变器出售给潜在的数据中心客户。

And I also want the company's management to look into selling those inverters to potential data center customers.

Speaker 5

不错。

Cool.

Speaker 5

也许他们真该这么做。

Maybe they should do that.

Speaker 5

这只股票一直让人很失望。

This has been such a disappointing stock.

Speaker 5

前几天,萨姆,我们可能聊过First Solar。

The other day, Sam, we talked possibly about First Solar.

Speaker 5

我知道你不想听这个。

I know you don't wanna hear that.

Speaker 5

你更关注Enphase,但我们认为First Solar更好。

You're looking more at Enphase, but we think First Solar's better.

Speaker 5

我跟你说,Enphase已经让人失望太久了。

And I I I tell you, Enphase has just been just been a disappointment for too long.

Speaker 5

我们连线北卡罗来纳州的罗尼。

Let's go to Ronnie in North Carolina.

Speaker 5

罗尼。

Ronnie.

Speaker 13

嗨,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 13

一直是您节目的忠实观众。

Long time deal of your show.

Speaker 13

非常享受这个节目。

Enjoy it very much.

Speaker 5

哦,谢谢你,罗尼。

Oh, thank you, Ronnie.

Speaker 5

最近怎么样?

What's going on?

Speaker 13

没什么特别的。

Not much.

Speaker 13

我有个关于思科的问题。

I have a question on Cisco.

Speaker 13

我持有思科好几年了,但股价似乎涨得非常缓慢。

I held Cisco for several years, but the share price just seemed to grow very slowly.

Speaker 13

然而,现在一看,过去一年股价大约上涨了27美元。

However, looking at it right now, this is like it's up about $27 a share over the past year.

Speaker 13

那么考虑到他们在人工智能方面的兴趣和投资,你认为他们是不错的买入标的,还是该去问问老板?

So with their interest, their investments in AI, do you think they're a good buy or talk to the boss?

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

我觉得是。

I do.

Speaker 5

我觉得是。

I do.

Speaker 5

现在我们确实解决了与我们的聊天问题。

Now we did solve the chat with us.

Speaker 5

游戏不错,但我们有太多数据中心了。

Nice game, but we have so much data center.

Speaker 5

我觉得我们承担的东西太多了。

I felt like that we were taking on just taking on too much.

Speaker 5

在今天的会议上谈谈这个。

Talk about that in today's meeting.

Speaker 5

我觉得你在这一点上状态非常好。

I think you're in great shape with that.

Speaker 5

它表现得非常好。

It's doing very, very well.

Speaker 5

查克·罗宾斯在那里做得非常出色。

Chuck Robbins doing a terrific job there.

Speaker 5

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 5

听好了。

Look.

Speaker 5

我很喜欢我对麦迪逊航空的观察。

I like what I'm seeing from Madison Air.

Speaker 5

我觉得这只股票现在就可以买入。

I think the stock can be bought right here, right now.

Speaker 5

我不知道你有没有听CEO的说法。

I don't know if you listen to the CEO.

Speaker 5

她非常出色。

She's pretty terrific.

Speaker 5

现在赚的钱更多了,包括我和Broadridge的对话。

Now there's much more made money, including my sit down with Broadridge.

Speaker 5

这家金融科技公司多年来一直是为散户投资者服务的冠军。

The fintech player has been the champion for you, for retail investors for years.

Speaker 5

我正在更多地了解即将来临的路线,以及它未来的发展方向,与CEO的交流让我觉得,投资可能是在这个市场中脱颖而出的唯一方式。

I'm learning more about the coming road road Coming to where where it's headed with the CEO, and investing intent might seem like the only way to get ahead in this market.

Speaker 5

但今天,我想到了一家值得投资者更多关注的知名公司。

But today, thinking of one household name that deserves more attention from investors.

Speaker 5

当然,今晚的闪电环节不需要你们的来电。

And, of course, all your calls are not required in tonight's edition of the Lighting Round.

Speaker 5

这是泰勒·克雷默。

This is Taylor Cramer.

Speaker 5

作为一名上市公司的股东,最令人兴奋的事情之一就是,至少在理论上,你可以通过股票的投票权对公司事务发表意见。

One of the most exciting things about being a shareholder in a publicly traded company is the fact that, at least in theory, you got a say in that company's affairs through your stock's voting rights.

Speaker 5

但很多时候,投资者根本无法利用这一权利,或者他们根本做不到。

But far too often, investors don't even take advantage of it or maybe they can't.

Speaker 5

这就是为什么我想和Broadridge Financial Solutions谈谈。

That's why I wanna talk to Broadridge Financial Solutions.

Speaker 5

这是一家金融科技公司,帮助银行和经纪商更高效地运营,更直接地与客户沟通,同时为美国一些最大的公司处理代理投票。

It's a financial technology company that helps banks and brokers operate more efficiently, communicate more directly with their clients while also processing proxy voting for some of the largest companies in America.

Speaker 5

他们大力推动提高股东投票参与率,这一点我们在这里非常赞赏,尤其是对于散户投资者。

They've made a big push to increase shareholder voting participation, which you know we like here, especially for retail investors.

Speaker 5

同时,经纪商持有股票。

At the same time, brokerages the stock.

Speaker 5

我真的不太明白。

I don't really get it.

Speaker 5

自去年八月的高点以来,股价已经下跌了40%,今年迄今已下跌27%。

It's it's going down 40% from its peak last August, clearly 27% decline year to date.

Speaker 5

我们正在了解这件事。

We're find out about this.

Speaker 5

这是众多因人工智能替代担忧而受冲击的专业服务公司之一,但这些担忧并非基于事实。

It's one of the many professional services companies that's been hit by AI displacement worries, not facts.

Speaker 5

让我们和蒂姆·库克一起深入了解一下。

So let's take a closer look with Tim Cook.

Speaker 5

他是Broadridge金融解决方案公司的首席执行官。

He's the CEO of Broadridge Financial Solutions.

Speaker 5

蒂姆,欢迎再次来到我的节目。

Tim, welcome back to my buddy.

Speaker 11

哦,吉姆。

Oh, Jim.

Speaker 11

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

Speaker 11

今天能来到这里真是太好了。

It's great to be here today.

Speaker 5

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 5

所以,蒂姆,有很多话题想和你聊,但我现在不想谈股价下跌的事。

So, Tim, there's a lot to talk to you about, but I don't wanna talk about the decline in the stock yet.

Speaker 5

你正在做一件非常有趣的事,那就是代币化。

You're doing something that is very interesting, which is tokenization.

Speaker 5

但我认为,很多人听到这个词时,会说:哦,我不懂这个。

But I think a lot of the people when they hear that, they say, oh, I don't understand that.

Speaker 5

我希望他们能多聊聊老派的做法,但那太无趣了。

I wish they would just talk about playing old, but that's it's too exciting.

Speaker 5

你和诺沃格拉茨先生有合作,他真是个了不起的人。

And you're involved with mister Novogratz, who's a really terrific guy.

Speaker 11

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 11

我们对这个机会感到非常兴奋。

We're we're excited about this opportunity.

Speaker 11

我们认为它为散户投资者提供了另一种选择。

We think it gives retail investors another choice.

Speaker 11

我认为这将吸引更多投资者进入美国股市,包括外国投资者、年轻投资者,以及目前持有加密货币的人。

I think it's gonna draw more investors into US equities, foreign investors, younger investors, people that currently have coin.

Speaker 11

但正如你所知,投票权是拥有股票的核心权利之一。

And but as you know, being able to vote is one of the core things about owning an equity.

Speaker 11

没错。

Right.

Speaker 11

这可能会很复杂。

And it can be complicated.

Speaker 11

我们将为散户投资者简化这一切,同时也为那些将面临来自多种渠道投票请求的上市公司整合这些流程,帮助他们简化操作。

And we're gonna simplify all that for retail investors, but also for the public companies who are gonna be facing sort of incoming votes from a variety of different channels now and bring all that together to simplify for them.

Speaker 5

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 5

但什么是代币化?

But what what what is tokenization?

Speaker 5

这到底意味着什么?

What does that mean?

Speaker 11

这是一种股权的代表形式,它可以是原生发行在链上的——这是一种新兴技术,也可以是对传统股权的数字化表示,这些股权可能仍存放在某个地方,但通过链上表示实现24/7实时交易。

Well, it's a representation of of an equity, and it can be either issued natively on chain, which is sort of a new technology, or it can be a representation of a traditional equity, which would be immobilized someplace, but then represented on chain so that it can be traded real time twenty four seven.

Speaker 5

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 5

所以这可能对年轻人更有吸引力,因为他们对这种技术很熟悉。

So that would be something that maybe younger people would be interesting because it's like they're facile with that.

Speaker 5

我不确定年长的人是否会对此特别关注。

I I don't know if the older folks would really be that focused on this.

Speaker 5

也许他们会。

Maybe they would.

Speaker 11

他们可能会。

They may be.

Speaker 11

这要看情况。

It it depends.

Speaker 11

你知道,现在有些人持有大量比特币或其他资产,他们也希望持有股权,所以希望所有资产都能集中在一个钱包里。

You know, there are people today that have a lot of a lot of, say, Bitcoin or other holding that may wanna hold equity, so they wanna see it all in one wallet.

Speaker 11

还有外国投资者。

Also, foreign investors.

Speaker 5

哦,明白了。

Oh, okay.

Speaker 5

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,特别是我知道我们有个案例,代表的是非洲的游戏产业,他们对这种模式会感到更熟悉。

I I mean, particularly, I know we had a fellow that was it would represent African gaming, and they would much feel much more at home with this.

Speaker 5

我并不奇怪,尤其是他们的某些货币并不那么强势。

And I don't blame, especially with some of their currencies are not that strong.

Speaker 5

本月早些时候我看到银河公司发布的公告,我觉得这几乎是革命性的。

What is the with the announcement with Galaxy earlier this month that I saw I thought it was pre revolutionary.

Speaker 11

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 11

我们感到兴奋,因为银河公司是这个领域的核心企业。

We are excited because Galaxy is a core core company in this space.

Speaker 11

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 11

他们既有传统股份,也有原生发行的未变更股份。

They have shares that are both traditional shares, but they also have natively issued unchanged shares.

Speaker 5

对。

Right.

Speaker 11

我们即将为这些未变更股份的年度股东大会提供投票服务,会议将在几周后举行。

We're gonna be providing the voting for those unchanged shares for their annual meeting, is coming up in just a couple of weeks.

Speaker 11

因此,我们将为未变更股份提供端到端的投票服务。

So we are gonna be providing the the full end to end voting for unchanged shares.

Speaker 11

而且,我们认为代币化将为我们的公司带来真正的推动力,因为随着新投资者的加入,无论他们是否像银河公司那样由公司进行代币化,我们都能实现这一点。

And, again, we think tokenization is gonna be a real tailwind for our company, because as it draws in new investors, we're gonna be able to do that whether they're tokenized by the company the way Galaxy is Mhmm.

Speaker 11

或者他们是否通过经纪商或交易所进行代币化。

Or whether they're tokenized with a broker dealer, or an exchange.

Speaker 5

那么,如果我们把钱投在指数基金里,你们如何帮助我们获得投票权呢?

Now how are you at helping us get some voting rights if we have our money with an index fund?

Speaker 11

很好,这个观点很到位。

Well, great point.

Speaker 11

很高兴你提到这一点。

I'm really glad you raised that.

Speaker 11

你知道,投票选择正在迅速发展。

You know, voting choice is something that is really growing.

Speaker 11

所以,如果你是基金持有人,

So, you know, one of the issues, if you're a fund holder

Speaker 12

对。

Right.

Speaker 11

那你怎么让自己的声音被听到呢?

Is, well, how do you have your voice be heard?

Speaker 11

在过去几年里,这已经发展到能让散户投资者发声了。

And over the past few years, it's really developed to enable retail investors to have their voice heard.

Speaker 11

三年前我们为8只基金做了这件事,两年前扩展到100只基金,去年是400只,今年已经覆盖了900只基金,资产规模达4万亿美元。

We did this for eight funds three years ago, a 100 funds two years ago, 400 funds last year, 900 funds this year with 4,000,000,000,000 in assets.

Speaker 11

它让你能够对多项不同政策表达选择,总体而言,按该政策投票你的股份,真正赋予了散户投资者这种选择权。

And what it allows you to do is to express sort of a choice among several different policies to say broadly, vote my shares in line with that policy and really gives retail investors that choice.

Speaker 5

那么,每票或与公司签订的合同,你们能赚多少钱呢?

Now how much money do you make per, I don't know, vote or by a contract that you make with the company?

Speaker 5

是这样运作的吗?

Is that how it works?

Speaker 11

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 11

关于投票选择,这是我们为资产管理人提供的技术服务,因此其收费是通过协商确定的,类似于平台服务费。

For for voting choice, it is it's a it's a technology service that we provide to the asset manager, and so it's a negotiated fee sort of as a as for the platform that provides.

Speaker 5

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 5

我听到的这一切似乎都与Anthropic或OpenAI无关,但你们的股价显然受到了AI领域拖累。

All the things that I'm hearing don't seem to be things that anthropic would hurt or open AI, but your stock is clearly reflecting a drag from the you know, from AI.

Speaker 5

你能告诉我,有没有人带着更优越的产品找过你们的客户?

Can you tell me, has anyone knocked on the door of any of your clients with a superior product?

Speaker 5

因为否则的话,对我来说,这根本说不通。

Because, otherwise, it it to me, it's it's just something that that doesn't make sense.

Speaker 11

嗯,很高兴你提到这一点,因为我认为这对广大股东来说是一个真正的机遇。

Well, look, I'm glad you're raising this, because I think it's a real opportunity for broader shareholders.

Speaker 11

我自己也一直在买入。

I've been a buyer myself.

Speaker 11

确实,许多SaaS公司,尤其是采用按席位计费模式的公司,

And, you know, it is true that many SaaS companies, particularly ones that have a seat based model

Speaker 5

对。

Right.

Speaker 11

如果用户数量减少,席位数也会下降,这些公司都受到了冲击。

Where if the number of people go away, the number of seats would go down, have been hit.

Speaker 11

我们某种程度上也被这个问题牵连了,但我们的情况非常不同,正如你所指出的,我们连接了成千上万的上市公司、数百家经纪交易商,以及近两亿零售投资者,这一点是无法被潮流轻易取代的。

And I think we've been somewhat caught up on that, but we're very different because as you point out, what we do is we connect thousands of public companies to hundreds of broker dealers to literally almost 200,000,000 retail investors, and that's not something that is gonna be vibe coated away.

Speaker 11

相反,人工智能实际上对我们是利好,因为它让我们能更快行动,推出更多新产品——我们目前已经推出了具有真实收入的新产品,这将成为我们自身和客户效率提升的重要来源。

And on the contrary, AI is actually a tailwind for us because we can move faster, we can provide more new products, which we already are with real revenue today, it's gonna be a great source of efficiency for ourselves and for our clients.

Speaker 5

我查阅研究时,并没有看到有人认为你们处于危险之中。

When I checked research, I didn't see anyone who was just thinking you're endangered.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,我明白你的意思。

I I mean, look, I get it.

Speaker 5

我明白你的意思。

I get it.

Speaker 5

比如Intuit,我从不觉得它会面临威胁,但随后Perplexity给我发了一份投票表,告诉我该如何填报我的税单。

Like, you know, Intuit, I didn't think was endangered, and then and then Perplexity sends me a ballot and what it could look like and or or it tells me how to write up my my taxes.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,有人给我发了一份模拟投票表,我真的搞不懂,来自这些公司中的某一家。

I mean, is someone sending me a ballot, a mock ballot from and I just don't get it, like, from one of this one of these

Speaker 11

吉姆,我们目前没有看到任何威胁,当你想到你们所提供的连接性、端到端的可审计性以及所有监管报告时,这是一个高度监管的领域。

There's we are not seeing anything, Jim, and it's it's when you think about the connectivity that you have to provide, the end to end auditability, all the regulatory reporting, this is a highly regulated area.

Speaker 11

所以,再次强调,我们认为这更多是一个机遇,而非威胁。

So, again, we feel this is this is just really much more of an opportunity for that of threat.

Speaker 5

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 5

你能谈谈你与埃克森美孚的合作项目吗?这家公司的股票表现实际上非常出色。

Can you talk about your program with Exxon, which is a stock that has actually had a great performance?

Speaker 11

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 11

你知道,这又是另一个令人兴奋的进展,它让散户股东有了发声的机会。

You know, this is again another really exciting development that gives voice to retail shareholders.

Speaker 11

正如你所知,散户股东持有大约30%的股份。

So as you know, retail shareholders hold about 30% of shares.

Speaker 11

对。

Right.

Speaker 11

他们的投票率较低,尽管我们已经尽力简化流程,但仍然需要点击很多按钮。

They vote at a lower rate because as convenient as we make it, there's still lots of buttons to push.

Speaker 11

对。

Right.

Speaker 11

这使得人们能够注册并表示:看。

What this allows people to do is to sign up to say, look.

Speaker 11

你知道,散户通常会支持管理层投票,因为如果他们不喜欢管理层,他们就会卖出股票。

You know, it tends to be that retail shareholders vote with management because if they don't like management, they're sell the shares.

Speaker 11

所以这让他们可以像生活中其他地方的默认设置一样,简单地订阅并表示:嘿。

So it allows them, and we're used to defaults in other parts of our life to basically subscribe to say, hey.

Speaker 11

你知道,我会接收相关材料,但如果你没收到我的反馈,我就希望投给管理层。

You know, I'm gonna get the materials, but if you don't hear from me, I wanna vote with management.

Speaker 11

这使得整个过程方便多了。

And it makes it much more convenient.

Speaker 11

我们看到,在今年第一轮投票中,近10%的埃克森投资者都注册了这项服务。

And what we've seen is nearly 10% of Exxon's investors signed up in the the first go round this year.

Speaker 11

这个比例会随着时间推移而增长。

That's gonna build over time.

Speaker 11

当我们查看所有数据时,发现大约三分之一的投票者是以前从未投过票的新参与者。

And as we look across all the data, we're seeing that about a third of, those are new voters that haven't voted before.

Speaker 5

你这是在把常识变成常识教育。

Well, you're making it common sense school.

Speaker 5

我支持常识。

I I I'm in favor of common sense.

Speaker 11

这确实是令人振奋的进展之一。

This is really one of the very exciting developments.

Speaker 5

我正等着Anthropic做出决定,你知道吗?

I'm waiting for Anthropic to really decide, you know what?

Speaker 5

我要广泛覆盖。

I'm going to broad reach.

Speaker 5

不会发生的事,蒂姆·戈恩,博德里奇金融服务解决方案的CEO,他的股票下跌了40%,我说句公道话,完全没理由。

Not going to happen, Tim Goheen, the CEO of Broadridge Financial Services Solutions, whose stock is down 40% for, I'm gonna say it, no reason at all.

Speaker 5

谢谢你的分享。

Thank you for that.

Speaker 5

欢迎。

Welcome.

Speaker 5

我的话在休息后继续回来。

My is back here for the break.

Speaker 10

接下来,你们有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

Speaker 10

克拉默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

Speaker 10

准备好迎接接下来的快速闪电问答环节。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

Speaker 5

闪电问答环节结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

Speaker 5

你准备好了吗?

Are you ready?

Speaker 5

来自阿肯色州的马蒂。

Marty in Arkansas.

Speaker 5

马蒂。

Marty.

Speaker 14

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 14

我们非常感谢您为零售业所做的一切。

We appreciate what you do for retail.

Speaker 5

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 5

这对我来说意义重大。

It's everything to me.

Speaker 14

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 14

我的公司2025年的营收为124亿美元。

My my company had 2025 revenue of 12,400,000,000.

Speaker 14

公司正处于转型阶段,从传统的电信业务转向数字人工智能领域。

It's in a growth phase to transform from legacy telecom into the digital AI area.

Speaker 14

最近的商业合作伙伴包括微软、谷歌、云服务,以及昨天宣布的AWS。

Recent business partners announced Microsoft, Google, cloud, and yesterday, AWS.

Speaker 14

我想问的是,它能否从灰烬中重生,摆脱 looming 的困境?

I'm asking about can it come back from the ashes, looming?

Speaker 14

你

You

Speaker 5

你知道吗?

know what?

Speaker 5

你比我还清楚。

You know it better than I do.

Speaker 5

我知道它来自路易斯安那州的门罗,我一直觉得它是个不错的规格,而且你通过在那里吸引了很多有趣的客户来证明了这一点。

I know it's from Monroe, Louisiana, and I've always felt that it was a decent spec, and you qualify it by putting out a lot of interesting customers there.

Speaker 5

我同意你的观点

I'll go with you on

Speaker 13

这一点。

that one.

Speaker 5

我们去佛罗里达的马拉吧。

Let's go to Mara in Florida.

Speaker 15

嗨,吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

Speaker 15

谢谢您接听我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 5

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 15

我很好。

I'm good.

Speaker 15

我很好。

I'm good.

Speaker 15

谢谢您接听我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 15

我从您的书中学到了很多。

I learned a lot from your book.

Speaker 5

哦,谢谢。

Oh, thank you.

Speaker 15

我的投资组合非常普通。

I have a very modest portfolio.

Speaker 15

总之,我打算卖掉我的Venture Global股票,买入BKB公司的股票。

Anyway, I'm thinking of selling my Venture Global stock and buying BKB Corporation stock.

Speaker 15

你觉得怎么样?

What do you think?

Speaker 9

天哪。

Jeez.

Speaker 9

我喜欢

I like

Speaker 5

Venture Global。

Venture Global.

Speaker 5

我觉得Venture Global可能,你知道的,我一开始并不喜欢它,但它的股价已经跌了。

I think Venture Global could, you know, I didn't like it initially, but it's come down.

Speaker 5

你看,世界将会变得不一样。

It's it look, the world is going to be a changed place.

Speaker 5

Venture Global拥有LNG业务。

Venture Global has the the LNG.

Speaker 5

我们有那些运输公司。

We we had the carriers.

Speaker 5

我说了,别做这个决定。

I'm I'm saying don't make that move.

Speaker 5

我们去BK马萨诸塞吧。

Let's go to BK Massachusetts.

Speaker 5

BK。

BK.

Speaker 9

克莱默教授,这就是BK。

Professor Cramer, this is BK.

Speaker 9

顺便说一下,我想说你今天下午在月度会议上带来了这么多活力。

By the way, I want to say that you brought so much energy this afternoon at the monthly meeting.

Speaker 9

我激动得想立刻出手。

I fired up to pull trigger on.

Speaker 7

但那确实是一次有趣的通话。

But that was a fun call.

Speaker 5

我试着对你表现得稍微活跃一点。

I tried to be a little acting to you.

Speaker 5

我想让事情热起来。

I wanted to get things rocking and rolling.

Speaker 5

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 9

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 9

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 9

不管怎样,我想听听你对诗人技术的看法。

Anyways, so I wanted to get your thoughts on poet technology.

Speaker 9

诗人技术。

Poet technologies.

Speaker 5

他们很快就介入了。

They come into the quick.

Speaker 5

我不了解Poet Technologies。

I do not know Poet Technologies.

Speaker 5

我是一个诗人。

I am a poet.

Speaker 5

我不是诗人,也不了解它。

I am not a poet and I don't know it.

Speaker 5

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 5

我们连线密歇根的罗宾吧。

Let's go to Robin in Michigan.

Speaker 5

罗宾。

Robin.

Speaker 5

嗨,吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

Speaker 15

罗宾。

Robin.

Speaker 15

我丈夫和我都喜欢你的节目。

My husband and I love your show.

Speaker 15

我们每天都看这个

We watch this every single

Speaker 5

晚上。

night.

Speaker 5

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 5

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 9

哦,太棒了。

Oh, it's great.

Speaker 15

我我

I'm I'm

Speaker 5

对这一点感觉很好。

feeling good about that.

Speaker 15

哦,太棒了。

Oh, awesome.

Speaker 15

所以我几个月前买了这只股票。

So I bought this stock a few months ago.

Speaker 15

我卖了。

I sold it.

Speaker 15

然后我又买回来了,但现在我真的不知道该怎么办。

Then I bought back in, and now I just don't know what to do.

Speaker 15

而且这只股票涨得很快

And this stack is fastly

Speaker 5

到6了。

at 6.

Speaker 5

有人推荐我买这个,然后它涨到了35左右。

I was recommended this thing and then it went up to like 35.

Speaker 5

现在是24。

It's a 24.

Speaker 5

我觉得这是个买入机会。

I think it's a buy.

Speaker 5

我更喜欢Cloudflare。

I do like Cloudflare more.

Speaker 5

我一直在读Matthew的内容。

I've been reading Matthew.

Speaker 5

他一直在Twitter上发布一些有趣的东西。

He's been posting some interesting things on Twitter.

Speaker 5

我觉得天哪,今天涨了7%。

I think I think oh jeez it was up 7 today.

Speaker 5

持有Fastly。

Hold on to Fastly.

Speaker 5

继续持有它。

Hold on to it.

Speaker 5

但如果它跌到5.06美元以下,那就太便宜了。

But if it goes down by more at $5.06 it was just way too cheap.

Speaker 5

我们来听听来自伊利诺伊州的玛丽。

Let's go to Mary in Illinois.

Speaker 5

玛丽。

Mary.

Speaker 15

哇。

Wow.

Speaker 15

先生。

Mr.

Speaker 15

克拉默先生,感谢您接听我的电话。

Cramer thank you for taking my call.

Speaker 15

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 15

我在考虑一个房地产投资信托基金。

Was thinking about a financial real estate investment trust.

Speaker 15

它是ARR。

It's ARR.

Speaker 15

这是一家市值20亿美元、市盈率为5.32的公司。

It's a $2,000,000,000 company with a PE of 5.32.

Speaker 5

我早就知道这家公司。

I've known it for a long time.

Speaker 5

我不明白为什么它的收益率这么高,这让我很担心。

I don't understand why the yield's so high and it does concern me.

Speaker 5

我知道利率上升并不一定对它有帮助。

I know that higher rates don't necessarily help it.

Speaker 5

我从来不是特别喜欢它,但我能理解你为什么不想持有它。

I I've never really been a big fan, but I can see that you wouldn't wanna own it.

Speaker 5

这也引出了闪电环节的结论。

And that lends on the conclusion of the lightning round.

Speaker 10

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

Speaker 10

接下来,百事公司是否已经掌握了在新兴消费品市场取得成功的秘诀?

Coming up, has PepsiCo cracked the code to succeed in the new consumer packaged goods space?

Speaker 10

克拉默将揭开下一个热门话题的序幕。

Cramer's popping the top on what's working next.

Speaker 10

明天,用《街头快讯》开启交易日。

Tomorrow, kick off the trading day with squawk on the street.

Speaker 10

来自纽约证券交易所九号岗的现场直播。

Live from post nine at the NYSE.

Speaker 5

就像过去那样,吉姆。

Like the old days, Jim.

Speaker 5

过去的那些日子是什么样子的,吉姆?

What were the old days like, Jim?

Speaker 5

没吃药。

Unmedicated.

Speaker 5

真的吗?

Really?

Speaker 5

什么都没有?

Nothing?

Speaker 5

今天不吃药吗?

Not taking anything today?

Speaker 5

有时候你必须这样。

Sometimes you have to be.

Speaker 10

所有这一切都从美国东部时间上午9点开始。

It all starts at 9AM eastern.

Speaker 5

我们是不是花太多时间谈论科技了?

Do we spend too much time talking about tech?

Speaker 5

我认为我们忘了,巨大的收益可能来自各个领域。

I think we forget the big gains can come from all sorts of areas.

Speaker 5

百事可乐上涨3%和英伟达上涨3%不是一样的吗?

Isn't the 3% gain in PepsiCo the same as the 3% gain in NVIDIA?

Speaker 5

今天早上,百事可乐的拉蒙·马圭尔展示了一场如何在我们大多数人已经放弃的领域——消费品包装行业——实现盈利增长的示范课。

This morning, PepsiCo's Ramon Maguire put on a clinic about how to grow earnings in a group that we've all, for the most part, given up on, consumer packaged goods.

Speaker 5

从原材料成本上升,到消费者对购买昂贵零食感到压力,再到竞争对手抢占市场份额。

From escalating raw cost to a consumer who feels hard pressed about spending on expensive snacks, pesky competitors taking share.

Speaker 5

我们已经学会,当这些公司告诉我们一切安好时,不要轻信。

We've learned not to trust these companies when they tell us everything's fine.

Speaker 5

但Quartus的经验却截然不同。

But the Quartus lesson is quite different.

Speaker 5

他告诉我们,可以通过创新和注重细节来取得胜利。

He tells us you can win by innovating and win by paying attention to detail.

Speaker 5

这些特质,加上消费者口味可能发生的变化,正帮助百事公司在各种逆境中脱颖而出。

These traits coupled with a consumer that might have changing taste are allowing PepsiCo to triumph over all sorts of adversity.

Speaker 5

因此,在公布优于预期的季度业绩和稳健的前景后,今天股价上涨了3美元多。

Hence, the $3 and change rally today after better than expected quarter of solid outlook.

Speaker 5

让我为你详细梳理一下,因为我认为这是一个重要的故事。

Let me walk you through the details here because I think it's an important story.

Speaker 5

百事公司是一家复杂的公司,不容易进行简单分析。

PepsiCo is a complex company and doesn't lend itself to easy analysis.

Speaker 5

菲多利零食业务是推动股价的主要动力。

There's Frito Lay, the snacking business, is the chief mover of the stock.

Speaker 5

其次是饮料业务,以百事可乐为主,当然还包括佳得乐,今天佳得乐也进行了全面的焕新。

Then there's beverages led by Pepsi, but also, of course, with the inclusion of Gatorade, which had a total face me facelift today.

Speaker 5

公司一直面临诸多困难。

The company's been challenged by a multitude of hardships.

Speaker 5

困难。

Hardships.

Speaker 5

年轻消费者对天然、有机食品产生了新的偏好,而这并非传统意义上的食品股。

There's the younger consumers newfound infection for foods that are natural and organic, not really foodily stock.

Speaker 5

有些人正在使用处方减重药物。

There are people who are on the GOP desk for weight loss drugs.

Speaker 5

这让他们避免暴饮暴食垃圾食品。

It makes them avoid binge eating junk food.

Speaker 5

由于食品货架上各种随意的价格上涨,有一大批消费者已经被迫退出市场。

There's a whole cohort that's been priced out because of all the willy nilly price increases in the food aisle.

Speaker 5

他们正在反抗。

They're rebelling.

Speaker 5

现在,一些这些逆风已经消退了。

Now some of these headwinds have dissipated.

Speaker 5

我们正在看到GLP-1使用者中的行为变化。

We're seeing some behavior change among people in GLP dash ones.

Speaker 5

他们似乎接受了自己不会再像以前那样吃那么多,但口味并没有改变。

They seem to accept that they aren't gonna eat as much as they used to, but it hasn't changed taste.

Speaker 5

索利零食对他们来说依然美味。

The Soli snacks still taste good to them.

Speaker 5

你只是不能吃那么多而已。

You just can't eat as many.

Speaker 5

答案是小包装。

The answer is smaller packages.

Speaker 5

这就是拉蒙所发现的。

That's what Ramon figured out.

Speaker 5

一小包价格合理的薯片,是今年的关键问题。

A small form factor pack of chips with a good price is question of the year.

Speaker 5

较小包装的价格差异不仅对GLP-1使用者有效。

The price differential of a smaller bag has worked for more than just GLP just one user.

Speaker 5

对于厌倦了通货膨胀的消费者来说,这似乎是个绝佳的优惠。

It seems like a great deal for consumers who are tired of inflation.

Speaker 5

其次,拉蒙在创新上取得了成功。

Second, Ramon's winning with innovation.

Speaker 5

佳得乐的快速补水系统刚刚推出,其补水速度比水还快。

The fast hydration system of Gatorade, faster to hydrate than water was just introduced.

Speaker 5

我觉得这会大获成功。

I think it's gonna be a home run.

Speaker 5

还有像Papia这样的收购案例,一种更天然的饮品,表现相当不错。

There's acquisitions like Papia, more natural drink that's doing quite well.

Speaker 5

不过,分析师们似乎对这些变化有点茫然。

The analysts seem a little clueless about these changes, though.

Speaker 5

大多数人只关注拉蒙如何控制成本,以及包装薯片和饮料所用的气垫膜、塑料和铝材本可能引发通胀失控,但实际并未发生。

Most focused on how Ramon's been able to control cost and an airwind film that contains the chips and the plastic and aluminum that that that the drinks come in could have caused runaway inflation, but didn't.

Speaker 5

经历过新冠疫情后,雷蒙德学会了在全球范围内采购,并且已经对铝材进行了对冲,直至今年年底。

Having been through COVID, Rembrandt's learned how to source from around the globe, and he's hedged in aluminum till the end of the year.

Speaker 5

此外,百事公司的规模优势让我们能够压低价格。

Plus, PepsiCo scale us into crush on price.

Speaker 5

那些无法跟上采购节奏的小型企业,当然也没有像我们一样对铝材对冲到今年年底。

The smaller players who can't keep up with the sourcing, and they certainly aren't hedged on aluminum till the end of the year.

Speaker 5

所以弗雷多已经抢占了市场份额。

So Fredo's taken share.

Speaker 5

他让那些主要关注毛利率、而非百事公司整体业务格局的分析师们感到困惑。

He's confounding the analysts who are mostly focused on gross margins, not the bigger picture in PepsiCo's business.

Speaker 5

他们似乎还在期待着另外两家公司所出现的同样 shortfall。

They seem to be expecting the same shortfalls the other two companies gave them.

Speaker 5

但这家公司不会这样。

Not with this one.

Speaker 5

雷蒙德的实践表明,你必须富有创新精神。

What Ramon's work shows is that you have to be inventive.

Speaker 5

你得愿意降价,而他以前只在薯片上这么做过,顺便说一下。

You have to be willing to cut price, which the old which he only did with the chips, by the way.

Speaker 5

你得从全球范围内采购。

And you have to source from around the globe.

Speaker 5

哦,你还需要一点运气,比如消费者对GOB-1的态度发生了变化。

Oh, and you need some luck, like the changing attitudes of consumers on the g o b dash ones.

Speaker 5

这就是你获得百事公司式意外惊喜的方式。

That's how you get a PepsiCo style upside surprise.

Speaker 5

归根结底,你应该在任何地方、任何货架上都寻找胜利的机会。

At end of the day, you should always look for wins wherever you can find them, whatever aisle they're in.

Speaker 5

科技之外还有很多机会。

And there are plenty of wins outside of tech.

Speaker 5

银行不会对这笔钱做任何备注。

The bank doesn't asterisk that money.

Speaker 5

去创造一些吧。

Go make some of it.

Speaker 5

我说,总有一个更大的市场存在。

I say there's always a more market somewhere.

Speaker 5

我保证会通知你关于你的资金。

I promise to notify just for your your man money.

Speaker 5

我是吉姆·克雷默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

Speaker 5

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

Speaker 16

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克雷默个人的观点,不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的立场,这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

Speaker 16

您不应将克雷默表达的任何观点视为特定的投资建议或遵循特定策略的诱因,而仅应将其视为他的个人观点。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

Speaker 16

克雷默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息,但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性,不应依赖此类信息。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Speaker 16

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明,请访问cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.

Speaker 0

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事?

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Speaker 0

我不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

Speaker 0

开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

Speaker 1

我最喜欢的一条建议是:想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

Speaker 1

领导力可以以许多不同的形式呈现。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

Speaker 1

归根结底,就是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Speaker 1

人生短暂,而且

Life is short, and

Speaker 2

要想成就大事,就必须有远大的志向。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

Speaker 3

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC变革者与权力人物节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

Speaker 3

新集数每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

关于 Bayt 播客

Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。

继续浏览更多播客