吉姆·克莱默的疯狂金钱节目 2026年4月2日

我们刚刚结束了华尔街又一个动荡的一周，主要指数在双向剧烈波动，市场走势受伊朗战争和油价影响。

We just wrapped up another wild week on Wall Street with the major averages whipsawing in both directions the market takes its cue from the war in Iran, price of oil.

在这段动荡时期，我必须说，我们必须确保你获得关于如何管理投资组合的正确建议。

During this turbulent time, I gotta tell you, we gotta make sure that you're getting the right advice that you need on what to do with your portfolio.

所以在最艰难的时刻，你知道我们怎么做吗？

So during the toughest times, you know what we do?

我们会开通热线，直接听取我们优秀观众的意见，以便我们一起为市场接下来可能出现的任何情况做好准备。

We open the phone lines to hear directly from our great viewers so we can go to work together to be prepared for whatever might come next with this market.

那么我们先来听听来自北卡罗来纳州的福雷斯特。

So let's talk first to Forrest in North Carolina.

福雷斯特。

Forrest.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

首先，

First of all,

我想

I'd like to

感谢您在过去二十五到三十年里对股票市场的专业知识和见解。

thank you for your knowledge and insight into the stock market during the past twenty five to thirty years.

我一直都是，您非常

I've been You're very

亲切。

kind.

NBC。

NBC.

谢谢。

Thank you.

从九十年代初就开始观看CNBC，从2005年起就一直看《疯狂金钱》，至今仍在观看。

Been watching CNBC since the early nineties and mad money since 2005, and I'm still watching.

这是我的最爱

It's it's my favorite

你太出色了。

You're sensational.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我的意思是，你和这个频道提供的信息和及时数据，让我们这些个人投资者能够管理自己的投资组合。

So, I mean, the information and the timely data that you and the network provides, you know, it's enabled us as individual investors to manage our own portfolio.

这过程很有趣。

And it's been fun.

这非常有收获。

It's been rewarding.

我只是想感谢你和CNBC的每一位工作人员每天的付出。

I just wanna thank you and everyone at CNBC for being there every day.

干得好。

Good job.

嗯，谢谢。

Well, thank you.

你知道，

You know,

我们努力做到的最重要的一件事就是每天坚持。

we try we the main thing to do there is every day.

每天。

Every day.

因为

Because the

日子都乱糟糟的。

days are crazy.

想想今天早上我们的情况。

Think about where we were this morning.

想想现在下午这个时候我们的情况。

Think about where we're the mid afternoon.

想想我们收盘时的情况。

Think about where we're at the close.

我们可以说，嘿，听着。

We could just say, hey, listen.

这看似平凡的一天，但其实却是意义非凡的一天。

It was a nothing day, but, you know, it was everything day.

让我们帮忙吧。

Let's help.

你有什么？

What do you got?

这种事情每天都发生。

It happened every day.

我在看埃克森美孚。

I'm looking at ExxonMobil.

我在那里有持仓。

I have a holding there.

大约是1.60美元。

It's about $1.60.

我不知道你觉得它会往哪里走。

I don't know where you see it going.

你觉得油价会怎么走？

Where you see a price of oil going?

你认为呢？

And what do you think?

我知道这就像赌博。

I know it's crapshoot.

好的。

Okay.

听我说。

Well, look.

我觉得，首先，雪佛龙比埃克森更让我看好。

I I think, you know, first of all, Chevron, I like more than Exxon.

我认为他们更具前瞻性。

I think they're more forward looking.

所以我不希望你把埃克森的股票换成雪佛龙，但我只是想告诉其他人，情况确实如此。

So I would not I don't want you to cash out of Exxon for Chevron, but I'm just telling everybody else that's the case.

我想以我自己的身份，作为我孩子信托基金的投资经理来说一下。

I think that I'm gonna speak as a portfolio manager myself for for my child trust.

我卖掉了我的石油股，这是个错误。

I sold my oil, and it was a mistake.

这明显是个错误，因为我们忘记了石油对我国有多么重要。

And it was clearly a mistake because we forget how important oil is to our country.

今天我们谈到了一家橡树公司。

We spoke to one oak today.

这充分说明了它的价值。

Just shows you the value of it.

我认为你应该持有一只。

I think you should have one.

我一直在和杰夫·马克斯反复讨论该怎么做。

I've been trying to go back and forth with Jeff Marks about what to do.

我建议你继续持有埃克森的股票。

I would encourage you to stay in Exxon.

如果你正在看和听，而且还没有持有，那就去选雪佛龙吧。

If you if someone's watching and listening and they don't own one, go for Chevron.

这些被称为勘探与生产项目。

These are for the e these are known as E and P plays.

我觉得你就该持有它。

And I think you just own it.

听我的吧，我后悔当初卖掉了我的石油股。

And take it from me as someone who wishes that he had not sold his one oil.

拥有一只石油股真的很好。

It's really good to have one.

今年到目前为止已经上涨了34%，表现很棒。

It'd be up 34% year to date is great.

我想感谢你的好言相待。

I'd wanna thank you for your kind words.

请稍等，那些正在想‘吉姆真的很喜欢持有石油’的新人们。

Just hold on and new people who are thinking, wow, Jim really likes to own an oil.

我最喜欢持有的石油公司是雪佛龙。

The oil that I like to own is Chevron.

现在我们来听听来自佛罗里达的迈克尔。

Now let's talk to Michael in Florida.

迈克尔。

Michael.

吉米，你好。

Jimmy, hi.

首先，我要说你的新书非常棒。

First, let me say the the new book is great.

自从1984年我们从同一所大学毕业以来，我读过你出版的每本书。

I've read everything you've published since 1984 when we graduated from the the same

法学院。

law school.

那要追溯到那么久以前了。

It is back that far.

那要追溯到那么久以前了。

It is back that far.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

是的。

Yeah.

这是不可或缺的。

It's indispensable.

我有个关于黄金矿业公司的问题。

I I have a question about the gold miners.

显然，今年它们的价格出现了急剧上涨。

Obviously, they had a parabolic move this year.

它们已经大幅下跌了。

They've come down a lot.

周二它们随着市场强劲反弹，涨幅大约有10%。

They bounced beautifully on Tuesday with with the market, something like 10%.

我知道你最喜欢的是哪个，但我指的是最大的那一家，它的首席执行官是一位女性，这是纽蒙特公司一百零四年来的第一位女CEO，我认为也是整个行业中的唯一一位。

I know what your favorite I know what your favorite is, but there's one, the largest one, which has a woman CEO, the first one in a hundred and four years at Newmont, and I think the only one in the industry.

她真的很有趣。

She's really interesting.

我想拜托你一件事，你是否考虑把伊朗作为

And the favor I wanna ask, would you consider having Iran as a

作为

as a

和明天。

and tomorrow.

我明天有安排，但周六会做节目。

I have on tomorrow, but do the show Saturday.

我周日做节目。

I do the show Sunday.

她随时都可以。

She can anytime she wants.

我喜欢纽蒙特公司。

I like Newmont.

我对它的了解有像对阿尼科那么深吗？

Do I know it as well as Agnico?

没有。

No.

你愿意听听它为什么比阿尼科更好，或者为什么特别出色吗？

Would I like to hear about why it's better than Agnico or really great?

当然愿意。

Absolutely.

除了很多年前我跟他们聊过之外，纽蒙特一直非常低调。

Newmont has really been quiet other than in very, very many years ago when I spoke to them.

而且我认为，目标是投资一家高质量的黄金矿业公司。

And I do think that, look, a goal a high quality gold miner.

我喜欢Agnico，只是因为我感觉认识他们很久了，而且他们非常稳定，但我非常希望能让Natasha来参加节目。

I I like Agnico just because I feel like that I've known them forever and they're so consistent, but I would love to have and I'm not even Natasha to come on the show.

持有黄金股票非常重要。

Owning a gold stock is is very important.

我认为持有黄金极其重要。

And I think that owning gold is incredibly important.

所以对于听我讲话的人，我们再次强调，我们讨论的是针对所有人，而不仅仅是Michael。

So let's for those who listen to me, again, we're talking about for everybody, not not just for Michael.

我更倾向于直接持有黄金，然后其次才是持有黄金矿业公司。

I prefer to own the actual gold, and then I prefer the own gold miners.

我们的黄金是从好市多买的。

We get our gold from Costco.

这一直是我们逐步积累的东西。

It's just been something we accumulate.

我们来听听来自威斯康星州的斯科特。

Let's go to Scott in Wisconsin.

斯科特。

Scott.

你好，吉姆。

Hello, Jim.

斯科特，最近怎么样？

Scott, what's up?

这个

The

过去三周，航空航天和国防股票一直在下跌。

aerospace and defense stocks have been going down for the past three weeks.

这些不就是制造我们战争中使用的所有武器的公司吗？

Aren't these the companies that make all the weapons that we're using in the war?

你推荐哪些制造武器的公司呢？

And what companies would you recommend that manufacture Okay.

很简单。

Easy.

是洛克希德·马丁公司。

It's Lockheed Martin.

吉姆·克莱默做得非常好。

Jim Cramer does a great job.

过去几周股价下跌实际上是一个绝佳的机会。

The fact that the stock is down in the last few weeks is actually a terrific opportunity.

我非常喜欢这一点。

I like that very much.

我也喜欢波音公司。

I also like Boeing.

波音公司，我为我的旅行信托持有它。

Boeing, I own for my travel trust.

我有点愧疚，因为我的教堂信托没有持有黄金类资产。

I feel bad that I don't own a gold stuff for my for my chapel trust.

我觉得我没有持有石油股，但我们确实持有波音股。

I feel that I don't own an oil, but we do own Boeing.

我认为这是一个非常棒、非常棒的局面。

And I think that's just a terrific, terrific situation.

自2月28日以来，世界上很多事情都发生了变化。

A lot of things have changed in the world since February 28.

一直以来，完全持有军事和国防股票的表现并不太好，直到现在。

The idea of owning outright of military and defense stock, they have not been that great until now.

总统显然希望增加国防预算。

The president obviously wants a bigger defense budget.

洛克希德获得的订单比我想象的还要多，而且他们做得非常出色。

Lockheed gets more than I think Lockheed does a great job.

凯特琳也做得非常出色。

And Caitlin does a terrific job.

这是最直接值得持有的股票，也是我会建议你买入的股票。

And that is the straightforward one to own, and that's the one I would tell you to buy.

我们连线纽约的卡罗尔。

Let's go to Carol in New York.

卡罗尔。

Carol.

哦，嗨，吉姆。

Oh, hi, Jim.

很高兴能亲自告诉你。

So glad I got to tell you directly.

你和杰夫上周的电话会议表现得真是太棒了。

You and Jeff outdid yourselves again last week's conference call.

真的非常好。

It was really great.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

那我们现在做什么呢？

So what what are we doing now?

好的。

Okay.

我今年74岁了。

So I'm 74.

我有一些新的资金可以投资。

I have some new money to invest.

我有两个问题。

I have a two part question.

一个是关于整体资产配置，另一个是关于新资金该投在哪里以及时间框架。

One about overall allocation and the other about, where to put the new money and the time frame.

我可能高估了而不是低估了自己的寿命。

I may have overestimated rather than underestimated my longevity.

那我的资产配置应该是怎样的？其中还能有一部分继续投资于我个人的俱乐部股票吗？

So what should my allocation be, and can a percentage of it still be in my individual club stocks?

关于第二部分，如何配置新资金，股票部分是否仍应投入标普指数，债券基金应选择哪种类型？

And for the second part, about putting the new money to work, should the equity still go into the S and P, and what type of bond funds?

好的。

Okay.

我们始终偏好标普指数。

Well, we're always gonna like the S and P.

我想和你聊聊74岁这个年龄以及你打算怎么做。

I wanna talk to you about this notion of 74 and what you do.

很多和你同龄的人都在和自己作对。

A lot of people your age bet against yourself.

是时候减仓了。

Time to scale back.

我经常听到这种说法。

I hear it all the time.

是时候套现了，等等。

Time to get the cash, whatever.

然后你到了90岁，就没有足够的钱了。

And then you don't then you turn 90, you don't have enough money.

我希望你想到，你会活到90岁，你会活到95岁。

And I want you to think that you will turn 90, that you will turn 95.

我亲眼目睹了我父亲的经历。

I watched this with my father.

他现在92岁，如果他听从大家的建议，在80岁那年决定不再投资、把钱全部取出、全投成现金和80%的债券，他就不会有足够的钱维持生活。

He's 92, and had he decided that he wasn't gonna invest anymore and take his money out like everyone told him to do and put it all in cash on 80% bonds, he wouldn't have enough money to live on.

所以我们要和自己站在一起，而不是与自己作对。

So we're gonna bet with ourselves, not bet against ourselves.

我现在做的，以及在任何市场中赚钱的方法，就是挑选了一组股票，这些股票是我认为那些担心只持有Meta或亚马逊的人可以考虑的。

Now what I did and how to make money in any market was I put literally a group of stocks in that I felt people who were worried about just being in the, you know, in the Metas and worried about being the Amazons.

你可以选择一橡树公司。

Well, you can be in the one oaks.

你可以选择企业产品合作伙伴。

You can be the enterprise product partners.

换句话说，你可以进行切换。

In other words, you can you can you can switch.

你可以从激进增长型股票转向更多注重股息的股票，即那些能持续派发股息的股票。

You can go from aggressive growth to more dividend oriented stocks, ones that have that pay a consistent dividend.

我支持这种做法。

I'm in favor of that.

我不赞成的是，我始终喜欢标普500指数和个股各占50%的配置。

What I'm not in and I also always love the s and p, 50% s and p, 50% individual stocks.

我在书中反复强调这一点。

I emphasize that throughout the book.

我支持指数基金。

I'm in favor of the indices.

很多人觉得，哦，克莱默是个激进派，总是喜欢个股。

A lot of people feel, oh, Cramer is a gunner, always likes the stocks.

为什么那些只喜欢指数的人就不能承认，持有个股也没什么不可以呢？

I why can't the people who only likes indices ever agree that it's okay to own a stock?

他们为什么这么想？你知道，沃伦·巴菲特其实早就该买指数基金了。

Why do they think and why why you know, Warren Buffett, you could own the index sooner than this.

我们还不如直接买他的股票。

We better own his stock.

我认为这种对个股的偏见令人悲哀又可笑，这是那些希望所有人都变成同质化产品的人制造的，他们以为自己可以不用动脑子。

I think that the bias against individual stocks is sad and pathetic and is done by people who want everyone to be an homogenized product, and they think they can check their brains at the door.

他们为什么没来我们为詹森举办的百万富翁午餐会？

Why didn't they go to the millionaire's lunch that we held for Jensen?

他们为什么没来这场百万富翁午餐会？

Why didn't they go to the millionaire's lunch?

因为他们根本不是百万富翁。

Because they weren't millionaires.

但詹森让这些人的财富变成了百万富翁。

But Jensen made the millionaires millionaires.

我们在这里办了这场午餐会，是因为我们建议大家买入英伟达。

We had a lunch here because we told people to buy Nvidia.

这并不是偶然。

It was not a fluke.

我们告诉人们买入苹果股票，这不是偶然。

We told people to buy Apple, not a fluke.

有很多事情都不是偶然的。

There are a lot of things that are not a fluke.

我对此确实有点激动，但我认为你应该坚持下去，来自纽约的卡罗尔。

I do get a little passionate about it, but I think you should stay in, Carol, from New York.

要积极进取。

Be aggressive.

不要跟自己作对。

Don't bet against yourself.

这种情况发生得太频繁了。

That way happens way too much.

人们活得更久了，这很棒，但他们却没钱了，所以不得不一辈子每天工作。

People live longer, which is fantastic, but they're out of money, so they have to work every day of their life.

我父亲一辈子每天都在工作，但为什么呢？

My father worked every day of his life, but why?

他就是太爱这份工作了。

He just loved it so darn much.

他也不知道还能做什么。

He didn't know what else to do.

接下来是来自犹他州的理查德。

Next up is Richard in Utah.

理查德。

Richard.

理查德。

Richard.

太棒了，克莱默先生。

Booyah, mister Cramer.

太棒了。

Booyah.

我

I

我有个问题。

have a question.

投资者在投资组合中应该持有多少只个股？

How many individual stocks should an investor hold in their portfolio?

我认为，当你持有的股票超过10只时，就会遇到一个问题：你无法对每只股票都做充分的研究，结果就有点像共同基金了。

I think that when you do more than 10, you run up about the problem that you can't do all the research, and you're kind of like a mutual fund.

关于如何在任何市场中赚钱，我建议持有五只股票，再加上标普500指数基金。

In how to make money any market, what I suggest is having five and then having S and P 500.

五只股票，你还能跟踪得过来。

Five, you can keep track of.

第一只，我是个投机者。

One, I'm a speculative.

我故意在挑选个股时尽可能保守，因为我意识到，你可能会因为一只股票而输掉整个投资组合。

I deliberately try to be as conservative as possible in picking individual stocks because I recognize that you could sink your whole portfolio on stocks.

我不希望这种事情发生。

I don't want that to happen.

但选五只股票是你能跟踪的。

But picking five is you can keep track of.

我们尝试这样做，我得告诉你，杰夫·马克斯和我在俱乐部里是怎么做的。

We try to do it with look I have to tell you with what we do with what Jeff Marks and I do with the club.

我们努力提供30只股票的正确信息和分析，这样你就可以选出你最想要、最放心的五只、六只或七只股票。

We try to buy in give you the right information analysis for 30 stocks so that you can pick the five or six or seven that you want, that you're most comfortable with.

这是我在这个职业生涯阶段的感受。

That's the way I felt at this stage in my career.

我能为你做的最多，我再次强调，这正是许多人应该做的。

I could do the most for you, and I reiterate that that is exactly what so many others should do.

但他们不，他们只想赚你的钱和你的费用。

But no, they want your money and they want your fees.

我不想要这些。

I don't want any of that.

我只是希望你能做得好。

I just want you to do well.

感谢所有来电听众提出这些精彩的问题。

Thanks to all your callers for these great questions.

关注我关于资金动向的分析，包括我对雅尼丝生活公司和文塔斯公司的解读。

Watch where me at money head, including my breakdown of Janice Living and Ventas.

这两家公司都是参与老年住房市场增长的方式。

Both companies are ways to play the growing market for senior housing.

但在两家公司之间，现在哪家是更好的买入选择呢？

But is there a better buy right now between the two companies?

我将分享我对此的看法。

I'm sharing where I come down on this.

随后，互联网的兴起在科技领域造就了赢家和输家。

Then the rise of the Internet created winners and losers across the tech landscape.

那么，广告革命是否正在重演历史？

So is the history repeating itself for the ad revolution?

我会详细分析我所看到的情况。

I'll break down what I'm seeing.

当然，你们的所有来电都像闪电轮中的魔术师一样快速不断。

Of course, all your calls rapid fire to the magician of the lightning round.

请继续关注克拉默。

So stay with Cramer.

两周前，我们迎来了一次表现超出预期的IPO，尽管市场波动不定。

So two weeks ago, we got this nice little IPO that's done surprisingly well in the face of a choppy market.

我说的是Janus Living。

I'm talking about Janus Living.

这是一家拥有老年住房物业的房地产投资信托公司，它在从Health Peak Properties分拆后上市。

It's a real estate investment trust that owns senior housing properties, which came public after being spun off by Health Peak Properties.

这是一个更广泛的医疗健康领域布局。

That's a broader health care reach.

不仅Janus Living的定价位于其提议范围的高端，而且此次发行的股票数量还增加了50亿股。

Not only did Janice Living price at the high end of its proposed range, but the deal was upsized by 5,000,000,000 shares.

在它首个交易日，也就是3月20日，股价开盘上涨了18%。

And when its first day of trading, March 20, the stock opened up 18%.

从那以后，股价基本呈横盘整理态势，考虑到此后市场波动如此剧烈，我认为这已经是个不错的成绩了，对吧？

Since then, it's basically been trading sideways, which I consider a win given how volatile the average have been, right, since then?

但也许这并不令人意外。

But maybe that shouldn't come as a surprise.

尽管今年到目前为止IPO市场表现不佳，但高端养老地产领域长期以来一直是我们的市场赢家。

Even though the IPO market has been disappointing so far this year, the senior living place have long been winners in our market.

经常观看节目的观众都知道，我非常看好由坚韧不拔的黛布·卡法罗执掌的Ventas公司。

Regular viewers know that I am a huge fan of Ventas run by the indomitable Deb Caffaro.

自2000年她担任CEO的首个完整财年起，该股股价已上涨超过2100%。

Since the beginning of 2000, her first full year as CEO, the stock's up more than 2100%.

如果算上股息，总回报率已超过9200%。

And including dividends, it's giving you a total return north of 9200%.

在过去三年中，Ventas的总回报率达到112%。

Over the past three years, Ventas has given you a 112% return total return.

谁说在股票上赚不了大钱？

Who said you can't make a lot of money in stocks?

而且也不一定非得投在超大规模云服务商上。

And it doesn't all have to be in the hyperscalers.

Ventas 是养老社区领域的第二大玩家。

And Ventas is the number two player in the senior living space.

行业巨头 Welltower，另一家房地产投资信托基金，过去三年的总回报率达到202%。

The big dog, Welltower, another REIT, just giving you a 2,000 I'm I'm sorry, 202% total return over the past three years.

因此，Welltower 和 Ventas 之后，Janus Living 引发大量需求也就不足为奇了。

So it's no wonder there was a lot of demand for Janus living after Welltower and after Ventas.

事实是，我这一代的婴儿潮一代，正在变老。

The fact of the matter is my fellow baby boomers, they're getting old.

在美国，80岁及以上人口的数量在未来五年内预计将增长28%。

In The United States, the number of people who are 80 or older is expected to increase by 28% over the next five years.

与此同时，我们几乎没新建多少养老住房。

At the same time, we've been building hardly any new senior housing.

有一段时间出现了很多问题。

There were so many problems for a while.

这使得现有的养老住房拥有巨大的定价权，这也是我长期以来推荐Ventas的原因之一。

That gives the existing senior housing place tremendous pricing power, which one of the reasons that I've been recommending Ventas for ages.

那么Janus Living能带来什么？

So what does Janus Living bring to the table?

首先，它是一家纯粹的养老住房公司。

First and foremost, it is a pure play.

当然，我很喜欢Ventas。

Now look, I love Ventas.

大家都知道这一点。

Everybody knows that.

但它只有大约60%的收益来自养老住房。

But it does only get about 60% of its earnings from senior housing.

它们还拥有一批门诊医疗设施和研究机构。

They've also got a bunch of outpatient medical properties and research facilities.

财富塔有85%是老年住宅。

Wealth Tower is 85% senior housing.

简斯是100%的，因为它是健康峰公司在剥离其老年生活业务时成立的。

Janice is 100% because it was created when Healthpeak decided to spin off its senior living business.

而且，他们不仅仅是房东。

Plus, they're not just a landlord.

他们的整个投资组合都是公司自营的。

Their entire portfolio was company operated.

不过，截至去年底，简斯生活是一家规模小得多的公司，仅在34个老年住宅社区拥有10,422个单元。

That said, Janice Living is a much smaller player than Ventas or Weldtower with just two 10,422 units across 34 senior housing communities as of the end of last year.

这相当小。

That's pretty small.

相比之下，本托斯有8万个单元。

By comparison, Bentos has 80,000 units.

华尔塔拥有超过10万个单元。

Wall Tower has got well over a 100,000 units.

但珍妮斯拥有的物业位于热门的退休市场。

But the properties Janice owns are located in popular retirement markets.

佛罗里达和德克萨斯占其物业布局的69%。

Florida and Texas make up 69% of their footprint.

费城占9%。

Philadelphia makes up 9%.

我看看外面。

I look out.

我有偏见。

I'm biased.

费城是个很棒的退休城市。

Philly is a great retirement city.

我以我父亲为例，但他即使在临终前也从未真正停止工作。

I set my dad as an example, but he never really stopped working even when he was about to die.

实际上，他前一天还在工作。

Actually, he was working like the day before.

现在，珍妮斯旗下的34个老年住宅社区中有15个被称为‘终身规划社区’。

Now 15 of Janice's living's 34 senior housing communities are what they call, quote, life plan communities, end quote.

这就像一个老年社区，提供全方位的照护服务。

Which that's like an old folks campus that offers a continuum of care.

从独立生活到协助生活，一直到近乎住院级别的护理都有。

Everything from independent living to assisted living to basically hospitalization.

这就像一个开放式养老院。

It's like a free range nursing home.

由于灵活性很高，人们在这里居住的时间通常比在传统老年住宅中长得多。

Because there's so much flexibility, people tend to stay a lot longer than they do in traditional senior housing.

综合来看，我认为珍妮斯的故事很不错，尽管我待会儿会跟你们分享一些复杂之处。

Put it all together, and I think Janice has a good story even though there are some complications I'm gonna share with you.

这家公司虽然是上个月从Healthpeak分拆出来的，但Healthpeak仍保留对该业务的控制权，并将继续管理它。

This company may have been spun off by Healthpeak last month, but Healthpeak retains control of the business and will continue to manage it.

所以，虽然你现在可以参与Janus的经济收益，但它本质上还是Healthpeak的孩子。

So while you can now participate in the economics of Janus, it's still a Healthpeaks baby.

这未必是坏事，因为这些人通常不会很快抛售他们的持股。

That's not necessarily a bad thing as these guys don't tend to unload their stakes anytime soon.

因此，交易的股票数量不多，这也是该股票能够在非常艰难的市场中保持稳定的原因之一。

As a result, not many shares trade, which is one reason why the stock's been able to hold up in a very tough market.

不过这些数字有些复杂，因为涉及大量关联方交易。

The numbers are tricky though because there's been a lot of deal making in related party transactions.

但我可以告诉你，珍妮丝的业绩非常稳健，实现了良好的增长，包括同地点净经营收入增长——这是房地产投资信托基金的关键指标之一，虽然听起来有点拗口，但它意味着他们从现有物业中获得了更多收益。

But I can tell you that Janice is plenty proper with nice growth, including same local well, I'm sorry, same location net operating income growth, one of the key metrics, although it's a mouthful, for real estate investment trusts because it means they're getting more earnings out of their existing properties.

资产负债表也非常稳健。

The balance sheet's pretty solid too.

那么估值如何呢？

So how about the valuation?

好的。

Okay.

目前还没有分析师覆盖珍妮丝，所以我们没有该公司2026年的任何预测数据。

There's no analyst coverage of Janice yet, so we don't have any '2 2026 estimates for the company.

回顾去年的数据，珍妮斯的调整后运营资金（REIT等同于收益）约为1.7亿美元。

Looking at last year's numbers, Janice had adjusted funds from operations, real estate and testament trust equivalent of earnings of about a $170,000,000.

而其市值为63亿美元，相当于去年收益的约37倍。

And with a market capitalization of 6,300,000,000.0, it's trading at roughly 37 times last year's numbers.

这让我觉得有点高。

Now that struck me as high.

但当你看看万塔和韦尔托尔时，它们分别以去年收益的30倍和46倍交易。

But when you look at Ventas and Welltower, they traded 30 times last year's numbers and 46 times last year's numbers respectively.

珍妮斯正好处于这个区间中间。

Janice is right in the middle of the range.

相当合理。

Pretty reasonable.

如果我们参考2026年的共识预测数据，万塔和韦尔托尔的交易倍数分别为26倍和37倍的运营资金。

If we look at twenty twenty six numbers using the consensus estimates for Ventas and Wealth Tower, they're trading 26 times and 37 times funds from operations.

显然，投资者愿意为持有养老社区领域的资产支付更高的估值倍数。

Clearly, investors are willing to pay a higher multiple to own something in the senior living space.

我们得看看对简尼斯的预测最终会如何发展，但我必须说，这相当令人鼓舞。

We'll have to see how the estimates shake out for Janice, but I gotta tell it's pretty encouraging.

好的。

Alright.

那股息呢？

How about the dividend?

看起来简尼斯将每股支付57美分。

It looks like Janice will be paying 57¢ a share.

这相当于接近2.5%的收益率，与Ventas持平，且比Welltower高出约100个基点。

That works out to be nearly 2.5% yield on par with Ventas and roughly a 100 basis points above Welltower.

最终，目前老年住房市场正火热。

In the end, the senior housing market is on fire right now.

婴儿潮一代正在变老，但正如Ventas的Deb Kafar经常跟我们提到的，新建项目非常少，这意味着几年内我们很可能会面临老年住房短缺。

Baby boomers are getting older, yet there's been very little new building as Deb Kafar from Ventas always share with us, which means that within a few years, we're likely to see a senior housing shortage.

因此，Ventas和Welltower的强劲表现，以及Janus Living上市的成功。

Hence, the strength of Ventas and Welltower and the success of the Janus Living IPO.

但你应该投资哪一个呢？

But which one should you invest in?

我不能忽视Welltower在过去几年里成为最大赢家这一事实。

I can't dismiss the fact that Welltower has been the big winner here in recent years.

他们在收购方面非常积极，到目前为止这些举措对他们的效果非常好。

They've been aggressive in their acquisitions, and they're working very, very well for them so far.

但目前，Welltower是这群股票中最昂贵的，股息收益率却最低。

But at this point, Wall Tower is the most expensive stock of the group with the lowest dividend yield.

我不能责怪任何人选择继续持有Ventas。

I can't blame anyone for wanting to stick with Ventas.

那句话怎么说来着？

What's the phrase?

跟带你来的人跳舞？

Dance with the one who brought you?

Well，Ventas正是那个为我们带来过去两年半平均每年近20%回报的公司。

Well, Ventas is the one that brought us a nearly 20% average annual gain for over two and a half decades.

它也是这批公司中收益率最高的，达到2.5%。

It's also the Chiefs of the bunch with best yield, 2.5%.

我非常喜爱黛布·卡法罗打造的这家卓越公司，如今它的吸引力丝毫不亚于过去几十年中的任何时刻，甚至可能是最具吸引力的。

I love this great company that Deb Caffaro has built and it's an attractive today as it's been at any point over the past couple of decades, maybe the most attractive.

但总之，黛布，你别听。

But the bottom line, Deb, hold your ears.

詹尼斯生活公司的情况看起来也相当不错。

Janis living does look pretty darn good too.

它比其他公司强得多。

It's much more than the others.

因此，它也有潜力实现更快的增长。

So it has the potential for much faster growth too.

我也喜欢它纯粹专注于老年住宅这一特点。

I also like that it's a real pure play on senior housing.

它们所运营的市场非常稳固，其针对轻资产社区的战略也同样出色。

The markets they operate on look real solid as does the strategy with those light playing communities.

由于这是一个较新的故事，珍妮丝在技术上风险更高。

Since this is a newer story, Janice is technically riskier.

目前这更像是一次大胆的赌注，但我对此非常有信心。

It's more of a leap of faith at this point, but it's a leap of faith that I'd be very comfortable making.

广告结束后，我们继续谈资金。

Net money is back after the break.

接下来，你们有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克拉默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接接下来的闪电问答环节吧。

Get charged up for a fire lightning round next.

闪电问答环节结束后。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

滑雪甲板。

Ski deck.

我们先从宾夕法尼亚的萨姆开始。

Let's start with Sam in Pennsylvania.

萨姆。

Sam.

吉姆，听我说。

Jim, listen.

我有个有趣的问题。

I got an interesting one.

我一直在关注交易平台。

So I was looking at the trade desk.

我看到内部人士买入了1.5亿美元，而这家公司仍然盈利，并且以22%的速度增长。

I saw that the insider buying him a 150,000,000, and this is still a profitable company that's growing at 22%.

所以我想知道你对交易平台这个机会有什么看法。

So I'm curious what you think about an opportunity in trade desk.

好的。

Okay.

他们确实有真正的竞争对手，那就是亚马逊。

So they do have real competition, and the competition is Amazon.

我知道你提到了内部人士买入，但你得看看接下来几个季度是否有实质性的进展。

And I know I I think it's very interesting that you have talked about the insider buying, but you gotta see a couple of quarters that that have something going for it.

你愿意在22美元的价格上尝试一下吗？

You wanna take a shot at it at $22?

不过我同意这个想法。

I'm willing to bless that though.

22美元非常低。

$22 is very low.

我们接下来听一下纽约的克里斯。

Let's go to Chris in New York.

克里斯。

Chris.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你怎么样？

How are doing?

第一次来。

First time.

我很好。

I'm doing fine.

好的。

Alright.

快点说。

Real quick.

我知道你很忙，兄弟。

I know you're busy, man.

快点说。

Real quick.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

我有

I got

时间。

the time.

我有，你知道的，我有

I've got, you know, I've got

时间。

time.

很好。

Good.

好的。

Alright.

好的。

Alright.

R O C K 直布罗陀控股公司。

R O C K Gibraltar Holdings.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，一家无聊的公司，但也没什么让人觉得无聊的。

I mean, boring company, but there's nothing that would boring.

问题是，我会感到无聊。

The problem is is that I'm going to be bored.

我希望有收益。

I want to have a yield.

如果我要感到无聊，我希望有一些增长。

If I'm going be bored I want to have some growth.

我会感到无聊。

I'm going be bored.

我想要一只上涨的股票。

I want an up stock.

你那里根本没有那些东西。

You don't have any of those right there.

我们来看看明尼苏达州的斯科特。

Let's go to Scott Minnesota Scott.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi Jim.

第三次打电话进来的俱乐部成员，也是长期观众。

Third time caller club member and longtime viewer.

感谢你所做的一切。

Thank you for everything.

还有你优秀的团队。

And your great staff.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我今天看到了15美元。

I saw the $15 today.

我说，洛公司怎么可能这样呢。

I said how the heck could it be that Lowe.

我记得当时有30个人，价格是15美元。

I remember it was in 30 people like that at 15.

我该怎么抽身离开呢。

How am I going to cut and run.

这不错。

It's good.

我不喜欢这个价格，但其他人喜欢。

I did not like that price but other people did.

我们去新泽西的罗密欧吧。

Let's go to Romeo in New Jersey.

罗密欧。

Romeo.

嗨，吉姆，又是Romeo。

Hi Jim it's Romeo again.

这次我打电话是关于奥克兰的。

This time I'm calling about Oakland.

是的。

Yes.

你看，我觉得奥克兰这个项目，根本不是什么科研项目，它在未来很短时间内几乎没有任何赚钱的可能，而我们认为这对一只股票来说至关重要。

See I think Oakland well not a science project not a science project has very little prospects for making any money anytime in the future that we think is important for a stock.

我们转到北卡罗来纳州的史蒂夫，史蒂夫。

Let's go to Steve in North Carolina, Steve.

让吉姆·克莱默这位让投资变得既教育性又娱乐性的王者，继续在节目中与大家互动吧？

Hold the cow on the air with Jim Cramer, the king of making investing educational entertaining?

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

现在让我们也来帮忙赚钱吧。

Now let's let's help to make money too.

怎么了？

What's up?

嗯，我最近关注一只股票。

Well, I've been interesting stock.

我觉得它们表现得非常好。

I think they seem to be doing extremely well.

这是金融科技公司。

It's bread financial.

一家有趣的公司。

Interesting company.

非常有趣的公司。

Very interesting company.

我想花点时间聊聊，因为我们在这档节目中通常很少遇到我喜欢的金融科技公司。

I want to spend some time because we typically do not get fintechs that I like on this show.

所以我打算叫上本索，聊聊为什么这个比其他的更优秀。

So what I want to do is I want to huddle Ben So to and talk about why this one is better than the others.

我们连线伊利诺伊州的拉里。

Let's go to Larry in Illinois.

拉里。

Larry.

吉姆·克莱默，来自引以为豪的伊利诺伊州，那里的人们正在奋力对抗这条线。

Jim Cramer from the proud state of Illinois home of the kind of forebounds fighting the line.

我刚才打电话是想跟你聊聊基珀。

I was calling you about Kipper.

这只股票已经涨了不少。

This stock has had quite a run.

这是一波陡峭的上涨。

It's a parabolic move.

真希望我早点推荐它。

I wish I could have recommended earlier.

我不能推荐这种急剧上涨的股票。

I can't recommend a parabolic move.

这走势太直线上升了。

It's just too straight up.

我们必须等待回调。

We have to wait for a pullback.

女士们、先生们，闪电环节到此结束。

And that ladies and gentlemen, of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，您想知道如何在当前市场中挑选赢家吗？

Coming up, wondering how to pick winners in this market?

克拉默将分享他过去的实战经验，帮您找到答案。

Cramer is giving lessons from his own past to help you figure it out.

下一个。

Next.

周一，用街头快讯开启交易日。

Monday, kick off the trading day with squawk on the street.

来自纽约证券交易所九点后现场直播。

Live from post nine at the NYSE.

你知道的，大卫，你有分歧。

You know, you have disputes, David.

你有分歧。

You have disputes.

你不能只是坐在那儿说，来吧。

You don't just sit there and say, come on.

好吧，我们看看全球之星连续表现会怎样。

Well, we'll see what happens with global star back to back.

他们确实必须，他们确实必须

And they do have to they do have to

这一切都从东部时间上午9点开始。

It all starts at 9AM eastern.

吉姆·克莱默。

Jim Cramer.

我是第一次打电话，是个快乐的俱乐部成员。

I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.

我想感谢你作为大众投资的代言人。

I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investment.

谢谢你帮助我成为百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

让我们聊聊互联网的历史。

Let's talk some Internet history.

三十年前，当我创办Street.com的时候，那真是个狂野的西部。

It was a real wild west thirty years ago, back when I started the street.com.

有太多网站，太多门户。

It's so many sites, so many portals.

我不得不找个人合作。

I had to affiliate with somebody.

对吧？

Right?

我得和每个人合作。

I had to affiliate with everybody.

我接触了Altavista、Infoseek、Xcite、Lycos，但我自己保留了一个独立阵地。

I met with Alta Vista, Infoseek, Xcite, Lycos, but I took a personal fort.

我曾尝试与微软和NBC合资的MSNBC合作。

I tried to do some work with Microsoft's joint venture with NBC called MSNBC.

最后，我决定广泛合作，与美国在线、ABC的Go以及雅虎结盟，这让我拥有了相当强大的合作伙伴。

Finally, I decided to spread myself thin, partner with America Online, ABC's Go, and Yahoo, which gave me some pretty powerful partners.

我们为什么选择这三个？

Why do we pick these three?

我们想要规模，我猜这三家会比其他家更强大。

We wanted scale, and my guess was that these three would have more than the others.

但我从未想过，那些我没选的公司会在短短几年内就倒闭。

Not for a second, though, did I think that those I didn't pick would go under and just in a couple years.

接下来的六七年里，我看起来像个天才。

Now I looked like a genius for about a half dozen years.

但我其实不是什么天才。

I wasn't a genius, though.

我根本没想到，一家叫谷歌的公司会几乎彻底淘汰这些合作伙伴网站，主宰整个网络。

I had no idea that some outfit named Google would more or less wipe out these partner sites and dominate everything on the web.

对于几乎所有提到的公司来说，这简直就是赢家通吃、输家全无的局面。

It was literally a winner take all, loser take none situation for almost all the companies mentioned.

如果你有一个在线出版物，却没有和谷歌建立关系，那你完蛋了。

If you had an online publication and you didn't have a relationship with Google, well, you were toast.

现在你们这些四十岁左右的人可能根本没听说过这些公司，但当时它们都极其强大。

Now those of you 40 probably never even heard of most of those companies, but back then they were all very, very powerful.

我当时一边经营对冲基金，一边运营thestreet.com，所以迫切想知道谁在浪费我的时间。

I was trying to run my hedge fund and thestreet.com at the same time, so I was desperate to figure out who was wasting my time.

我们和《纽约时报》的联合新闻室有过合作。

We had a partnership with the New York Times joint newsroom.

我们是正规的。

We were legit.

我们从所有投资者那里获得了大量信息，他们都非常强大。

We had tremendous information from all our investors, all of whom were extremely strong.

我深陷其中，但却无法判断我们是否应该与InfoSteek或Ala Vista结盟。

I was very much in the thick of things, yet there was no way to tell whether we should throw in our lot with InfoSteek or Ala Vista.

它们都规模巨大。

They were so huge.

马克·奥林只是其中一人。

Mark Olin was one of many.

他们和雅虎都主动来找我们，这让我们稍微轻松了一些。

They and Yahoo sought us out, so that made it a little easier.

但我每天晚上11点回家时，都担心自己押错了注，跟了输家而不是赢家。

But I went home every night at 11PM worried that I'd hitch my wagon to losers, not winners.

我提起这些，是因为现在，就在这一刻，全世界的人都在试图弄清楚人工智能领域的赢家和输家。

I bring this up because right now, at this very moment, people all over the world are trying to figure out the winners and losers from AI.

他们正在努力分辨谁像幽灵、雅虎或奇迹在线。

They're trying to figure out who's like ghost or Yahoo or Miracle online.

他们想确定谁会成为统治市场的谷歌，谁会出局、毫无进展。

They wanna determine who will turn out to be Google ruling the rooster, who'll be out of this and going nowhere.

回过头看，这似乎显而易见，但当时根本看不出端倪。

In retrospect, it seems obvious, but it wasn't obvious back then at all.

我非常兴奋能与InfoSec会面，并永远感激我在NBC的Zoom with an x的经历。

I was thrilled to get a meeting with InfoSec and forever grateful for my time with NBC's Zoom with an x.

跳到现在。

Cut to now.

现在你有ChatGPT和Croc。

Well, you got ChatGPT and Croc.

还有Gemini、Meta、AI、Copilot、Claude、Perplexity。

There's Gemini, Meta, AI, Copilot, Claude, Perplexity.

它们看起来都可能参与其中。

They all seem like they'll be in the mix.

对吧？

Right?

铁板钉钉的赢家。

Etched in stone, winners.

不过我可以告诉你，其中一个是奇迹在线。

I can tell you though, one of those is gonna be a miracle online.

另一个可能是Infoseek，意味着没有未来。

Another could be Infoseek, meaning no future.

可能会有一个雅虎，意味着它能生存但失去相关性。

There might be a Yahoo, meaning it'll survive but lose its relevance.

另一个可能会像Lycos一样消失。

And another is gonna be a Gone like Lycos.

也许和上次一样，只会有一个谷歌。

Maybe like last time, there will be only one Google.

但那时，根本无法想象这会变成赢家通吃、输家全无的局面。

Back then, though, it was inconceivable that this would turn out to be winner take all and losers take none.

更难以想象的是，除了雅虎之外，它们几乎全都消失了。

It was even more inconceivable that other than Yahoo, they pretty much all disappear.

每个AI平台都必须思考当年发生过的事情。

Every one of those AI platforms needs to be thinking about what happened back then.

你不想成为输家，一无所有。

You don't want to be lose or take none.

当然，它们都有钱，但互联网时代那些公司也都有钱。

Sure, they all have money, but so did the Internet players during the .com era.

人们当时疯狂地向它们投钱。

People were throwing money at them.

但这并没有救下它们。

Didn't save them.

也许这次会有不止一个赢家，但我清楚，并非所有这些AI公司都能存活，因为迟早会有一小部分脱颖而出，把其余公司远远甩在身后。

Maybe there'll be more than one winner this time, but I do know that not all these AI players are gonna make it, Because sooner or later, a handful will break away from the pack and leave the rest of the industry in the dust.

但这一过程可能要付出巨大代价，因为设备和基础设施的成本极其高昂。

But it might come at a huge price as the equipment and the infrastructure cost fortunes.

也许，如果你不付费，你就会成为下一个Lycos，下一个Infoseek，下一个失败者，是的，大写的L。

Maybe, though, if you don't pay up, you will be the next Lycos, the next Infoseek, the next loser, yes, with a capital l.

我喜欢说，总有一个牛市在某个地方。

I like to say there's always bull market somewhere.

如果这仅仅对你在‘Made Money’这里适用，我感到抱歉。

I'm sorry if it's just for you right here at Made Money.

我是吉姆·克雷默，周一见。

I'm Jim Cramer, and I'll see you Monday.

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为克雷默个人的观点，不代表CNBC或其母公司或附属公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介先前发布。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将克雷默表达的任何观点视为特定的投资诱导或遵循特定策略的建议，而仅应将其视为他的个人观点。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克雷默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其附属公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如此。

Such.