Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 4/27/26

说到底，还是得相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短

Life is short

想干大事，就得敢想大目标。

and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

咱们聊聊黄金。

Let's talk about gold.

我老跟你们说，持有一些贵金属，能对冲通胀或经济动荡。

I'm always telling you how some precious metal exposure is a hedge against inflation or general economic chaos.

过去几年，黄金的表现确实非常亮眼。

And for the past couple years, gold's given you some tremendous performance.

从2023年到现在，金价从每盎司2000多美元涨到了快4700美元，涨幅接近127%。

Since the 2023, due, it's up roughly 127% from just over 2,000 an ounce to just below 4,700 an ounce as of today.

你想想，咱们都爱的标普500，同期才涨了50%。

Put that in perspective, the s p 500, which we all love, right, is up just 50% over the same period.

就连科技股扎堆的纳斯达克100，也不过涨了62%。

And even the tech heavy Nasdaq one hundred is only up 62%.

黄金长期跑赢大盘，对像我这样的人而言真是意外之喜——我一直觉得，你的投资组合里至少该配5%到10%的黄金。

Gold's long term outperformance has been a very nice bonus for anyone who believes like I do that you should always allocate about, say, five to 10% of your portfolio to the Chinese stuff.

但说实话，虽然金价涨得飞快，它的表现却没达到我预期，也不像它该有的样子。

But if I'm being totally honest, even though gold prices have rallied like crazy, the yellow metal hasn't been behaving the way I expected it or it's supposed to.

它压根就没起到对冲投资组合风险的作用。

And it certainly has been acting as a hedge for your portfolio.

根本不是这么回事。

Uh-uh.

别开玩笑了。

No way.

我不是说不对

Don't get me wrong.

这几年确实经历了严重的通胀，还有全球性的经济动荡，对吧？

We've had some nasty inflation recent years as well as sort of global economic disruptions.

对

Right?

所以黄金涨也不奇怪，但关键是——这点特别重要。

So it makes sense that gold could be a winner, but and this is big but.

事实上，过去一年多来，黄金一直像投机品一样波动，根本不像投资组合的避险工具。

The fact is that it's been trading like a speculative asset, not as insurance for your portfolio for well over a year now.

这跟我当初买它的初衷完全不一样。

And that's why that's not what I got into it for.

加密货币我们也见过这种情况。

This is something we've seen with crypto too.

我们总希望比特币能有效对冲通胀和地缘动荡，可它从来就没这么干过。

As much as we hope that Bitcoin could serve as another effective hedge against inflation, geopolitical chaos, it's simply never been how it trades.

相反，比特币的走势几乎和那些高风险、高回报的科技股完全同步。

Instead, Bitcoin moves practically in lockstep with higher risk, higher reward tech stocks.

这可不是我们想要的。

That's not what we want.

说白了，它就跟加了杠杆赌科技股没啥区别。

For all intents and purposes, it might as well be a leverage bet on tech.

一到市场动荡的时候，它根本保护不了你一分钱。

And in times of turmoil, it doesn't protect you from squat.

股市一崩，比特币通常跌得更惨。

When the stock market's getting pummeled, Bitcoin's usually doing even worse.

可惜的是，我发现黄金最近也开始变得跟这差不多了。

Unfortunately, I've noticed that gold started to behave the same way.

我不喜欢这样。

I don't like this.

你看看今年发生了什么。

Look at what happened this year.

黄金在一月底涨到将近5600美元后，就开始一路下滑。

Gold topped out at just under 5,600 late January, then it's been sinking.

它和股市一起开始走低。

It started seeing lower right alongside the stock market.

伊朗战争一爆发，油价飙升，大家都怕能源成本上涨会引发一场可怕的通胀螺旋。

When the war with Iran started and oil prices soared, everyone was terrified that higher energy costs would trigger a brutal inflationary spiral.

历史上，投资者一担心通胀，就会往黄金里跑。

Historically, investors are worried about inflation.

但从2月27日伊朗战争爆发前，到3月30日股市触底，黄金根本没涨，反而跌了。

Gold tends to be a winner, but that's not how it's trading in in March from February 27, right before the war with Iran start started to March 30 when the stock market bottom.

标普500和纳斯达克综合指数都跌了8%。

The S and P and then Nasdaq Composite both fell out 8%.

很大一部分原因就是通胀担忧。

A lot of that was driven by inflation fears.

就在那段时间，黄金暴跌了14%。

Gold plunged 14% during that same time frame.

我得说，这太离谱了。

I gotta tell you guys, that's crazy.

所以最近，黄金根本不像个抗通胀或经济动荡的保险工具。

So at least lately, hasn't been behaving been behaving like insurance policy gets inflation or economic chaos.

上个月通胀和动荡一来，贵金属的表现甚至比大盘还差。

When we got inflation and chaos last month, precious metal did even worse than the averages.

这让我忍不住想，是不是该趁这波大涨拿点利润了？

All of which makes me wonder, is it time to take some profits in this incredible run?

以前黄金就安安分分当个对冲资产，你根本不用操心这种问题。

When gold was playing a static boring role as a hedge like asset, you didn't have to worry about this kind of issue.

这算得上是‘幸福的烦恼’了。

You could say it's a high quality problem.

那时候，不管怎样你都得在投资组合里配点黄金。

Back then, you wanted gold in your portfolio no matter what.

这样，当你的股票不灵的时候，它还能顶上。

So it could work when the stocks that you own weren't working.

但如果黄金现在像普通风险资产一样交易，那我们就得考虑该减仓了，甚至干脆清掉。

But if gold's trading like just another risk asset, then we also need to consider it that it should be trimmed or maybe even sold outright.

因为搞投机这事儿，你得有勇气落袋为安。

Because when you're doing something that's speculative, you need to be willing to take something off the table.

把账本拿过来。

Bring the register.

所以今晚，我们要请来拉里·威廉姆斯，来场超乎寻常的对话。

That's why tonight, we're going off the charts with Larry Williams.

他就是我一直想聊的那位传奇技术派大师。

Now he's that legendary technician I'd love to talk about.

市场历史学家。

Market historian.

从我十几岁起，他就是业内最顶尖的，而且他对黄金现在这行情一点都不乐观。

He's been the best in the business since I was a teenager because he's not feel and not feeling too sanguine about gold here.

他跟我想法一致，或者说，我跟他是一条心。

He's with me on this, or I'm with him.

我不确定。

I don't know.

别忘了，拉里过去的业绩简直没得说。

Remember, Larry's got a stellar track record.

他精准抄底了疫情低点，那真是我见过最牛的一次操作。

He nailed the COVID bottom one of the best goals I've ever seen.

今年年初，他大力推荐好市多，当时很多人都在担心。

More recently, at the beginning of the year, he pounded the table on Costco, and so many people were worried about it.

800点附近挺不错的。

Good in the 800 level.

我们为旅行信托持有这只股票。

We we own it for the travel trust.

从那以后，它涨了14%，远超标普同期4%的涨幅。

Temple quit 14% since then, trounced in the 4% gain in SP over the same period.

三月初，拉里又放了个大招，说他看好比特币的走势。

In early March, Larry made an even bolder call telling us he liked the setup for Bitcoin.

从那以后，它的涨幅超过了10%。

Since then, it's rallied more than 10%.

就在两周前，我们提醒过大家关注Shopify。

And just two weeks ago, we flagged shop Shopify.

这玩意儿短短几天就涨了8%，几乎是标普同期回报的两倍。

That sucks up a quick 8%, nearly double return you would have gotten from the S and P over the same period.

这么短的时间内能有这么高的回报，真不是闹着玩的。

These are some massive returns over a very short period of time.

所以当Larry警告黄金可能要走下坡路时，你真得认真听。

And that's why you should listen when Larry warns that things may be starting to look ugly for gold.

你看看这张黄金价格的季节性图表，蓝色是过去三十年的平均走势，黑色是今年的实际价格。

Now take a look at this seasonal chart of gold prices in blue based on the past thirty years of data along with the price of gold this year in black.

通常来说，黄金从四月中旬开始就会下跌。

Typically, gold tends to sell off starting in mid April.

今年稍微晚了点，但也是慢慢往下走，直到八月才反弹。

Well, you know, it's a little bit late this time, then drifts lower until it rebounds again in August.

换句话说，如果历史能作参考的话，拉里指出，每年这个时候金价通常都会开始下跌。

In other words, if history's any guide, Larry points out there's been a strong bias for the price of gold to start declining at this time of the year.

嗯，严格来说，这波下跌其实已经开始了。

Well, you could argue it's it has started.

对吧？

Right?

价格已经跌了。

It's down.

我可不敢跟拉里唱反调。

I don't wanna bet against Larry here.

情况越来越糟了。

This is getting ugly.

现在我们来看看黄金的日线图，蓝色线是同样的季节性走势。

Now let's zoom in on the daily chart of gold with that same seasonal pattern in blue.

从今年一月开始算起。

This goes back to January.

拉里指出，这种贵金属近三个月都没创下新高。

Larry notes that the precious metal has not made an a new high in nearly three months.

按往年的季节规律，这时候金价至少该有个阶段性高点才对。

Typically, you expect it to make at least an interim high at this point in the year according to the seasonal pattern.

但到现在为止，金价一直没跟上这个规律，所以拉里觉得今年春天的下跌可能会比往年更猛，甚至猛得多。

But so far, gold's been underperforming that pattern, which is why Larry expects the usual springtime decline to hit harder this year, maybe much harder.

除了季节规律，拉里总在找那些反复出现的模式或周期。

Beyond the seasonal pattern, Larry's always searching for patterns or cycles that seem to repeat themselves over and over again.

如果你看足够长的时间跨度，这些周期在数据里特别明显。

When you look at a long time span of of time, these cycles jump out of the data.

来看看这张从2021年底开始的金价走势图，红色线是拉里预测的周期走势。

So take a look at this chart of gold going back to late twenty twenty one with Larry's cycle forecast in red.

这个金价周期大概每一年半就重复一次。

Here's how the gold cycle has been working about every year and a half.

金价总是在冲高时遇到抛压，要么直接下跌，要么停滞不前。

Gold is running to selling pressure that's either created decline or a halt to its upper progress.

这个周期虽然不能完美预测未来，但Larry说它对判断高低点出现的时间非常有参考价值。

This cycle isn't perfect at predicting the future, but Larry says it's been very suggestive of when we should expect major highs and lows.

而眼下，这个18个月的周期明显在警告：黄金该回调了。

And right now, this eighteen month cycle is screaming that gold is due for a pullback.

我觉得这可能是最吓人的一点。

I thought this was the most frightening of all.

我的天，这真让我脊背发凉。

I mean, this chilled me.

你看看Larry的周期预测里黄金的周度走势更新就知道了。

Just check out the weekly update of gold prices in Larry's cycle forecast.

他指出，从现在到六月，黄金都会面临抛压。

He points out that we should expect selling pressure in gold from now through the June.

同时，他也对最近白银表现强于黄金感到不安。

At the same time, he doesn't like that silver is performing better than gold of late.

我也听别人说过类似的看法。

I've heard that from other people.

把这些都串起来看，他认为这波大涨至少暂时可能已经结束了。

Put it all together and he feels like the big up move might be over at least for now.

所以总结一下。

So here's the bottom line.

根据拉里·威廉姆斯的图表分析，未来几个月金价很可能会大幅下跌。

The charts as interpreted by Larry Williams suggest that the price of gold is very likely to get clobbered from here in the next couple of months.

考虑到最近金价的走势，更像是一种投机资产，而不是传统的价值储藏手段，谁想趁机落袋为安，我也完全理解。

And given how it's been trading lately, more like expected of asset than traditional store value, I don't blame anyone who wants to ring the register here.

听我说。

Listen to me.

如果你在黄金上赚了不少，我支持你拿一部分利润出来，这种话我平时可从不这么说。

If you got a big gain in your gold, I'm giving you my blessing and take something off the table, and I never say that about gold.

我们来接几个电话。

Let's take some calls.

先找得克萨斯的弗兰克。

Let's go to Frank who is in Texas.

弗兰克。

Frank.

嗨，吉姆，很高兴又上你的节目。

Well, hi, Jim.

能再次跟你连线真好。

I'm glad to be on again with you.

谢谢你打来电话，弗兰克。

I am glad that you called, Frank.

谢谢你的来电。

Thank you for calling.

美国矿业公司正在收购巴西的西耶拉韦尔德，我听说了。

US a air rare oath, and they're acquiring Brazil Sierra Verde, I understand.

我了解这事儿，咱们以前也聊过，但现在这股票还值得买吗？

I've got it, and we talked about it before, but is the stock still a good buy?

还有

And do

哦，已经涨了100%了。

you Well, is up a 100%.

我们发现，那些涨了六成到一成的公司，现在都开始回调了，没再往上冲。

And what we're what we're discovering is the companies that are up between, say, 60 and a 100% are rolling over and not going higher.

我打算等个回调再出手，弗兰克。

I wanna wait for a pullback, Frank.

现在这个点进场，风险太大了。

I think it's too risky right here.

我们连线一下俄勒冈的亚历克斯。

Let's go to Alex in Oregon.

亚历克斯，说吧。

Alex.

太棒了，吉姆！

Booyah, Jim.

谢谢你接我电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

当然。

Of course.

谢谢。

Thank you.

别忘了好好感谢你的团队。

And always shout out to your staff

他们人真的特别好。

for being super nice.

我打电话聊的这家公司挺有意思的。

The company I'm calling about is a pretty interesting one.

他们有点像做金属增值服务的，但业务还涉及国防和半导体设备领域。

They're kinda like a value added metal company, but they've got exposure to defense and semiconductor, like, equipment.

这家公司叫Reliance Inc.，股票代码是RS。

The company, kickers, RS, they're called Reliance Inc.

这确实是一家很棒的公司。

That is a very fine company.

我得说，我特别喜欢这家，就在纽柯之后。

And I've gotta tell you, there's no I I happen to like that one right after Nucor.

纽柯刚公布了财报。

Now Nucor just reported it.

我觉得今晚公布的数字简直太棒了。

I think terrific numbers this very evening.

这很可能带动雷利安的股价上涨。

That's probably gonna move up reliance.

不过除了股价涨得太猛、几乎像火箭一样飙升之外，也没啥问题。

But, there's no problem with that other than the fact that, again, the stock has had a very nice quick move power almost parabolic going higher.

但我得老实说，我不会劝你别买这只股票。

But I I gotta tell you, I'm not gonna tell you not to be in that stock.

这公司真的特别棒，而且价格也不算离谱。

It's just a really, really good company, and it's not outrageously expensive.

没错。

Right.

拉里·威廉姆斯对图表的分析认为，未来几周金价可能会大幅下跌。

The charts as interpreted by Larry Williams suggested the price of gold is likely to take a beating in the next couple of weeks.

哪怕你持有一段时间了，也可能得趁早落袋为安。

I maybe you gotta take something off the table, even if you had it for a long time.

很多人靠这个赚了不少钱。

And much more made money at it.

我最近深入研究了一下奥利折扣店。

My my deep dive on Ollie's Bargain Outlet.

关于数据中心对电费的影响，现在各种说法都有，吵得不可开交。

There's a lot of conflicting information about the impact of data centers on electricity costs.

我就直接听 CEOs 怎么说，追到最底层去搞清楚。

I'm going to the bottom just by listening to what the CEOs have to say.

今晚的闪电轮环节，咱们快速回答大家的所有提问。

And all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round.

继续锁定克莱默的节目。

So stay with Cramer.

好了。

Alright.

奥利折扣店控股公司的股票怎么了？

What happened to the stock of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings?

这是大型折扣连锁店之一，本来以为消费者被汽油价格压得喘不过气时，它该大卖特卖才对。

This is one of the big off price chains, so you'd think it would be thriving when the consumer is feeling the pinch from sky high gasoline prices.

但从去年八月见顶以来，这股票就一直表现糟糕透了。

But ever since peaking last August, the stock has been, well, a real dog.

奥利是美国最大的清仓商品零售商。

Ollie's is America's largest retailer of closeout merchandise.

他们从正规零售商那儿低价收进积压货，几美分、一美元就能拿下。

They buy excess inventory from regular retails for pennies and a dollar.

然后稍微加点价，卖给你，价格低得离谱——真的超低。

They mark it up a bit and sell it to you at incredibly low prices, and they are low.

我跟你说真的。

Believe me.

他们卖的东西，比传统零售商便宜多达七成。

They sell the same merchandise for up to 70% less than you'd find at traditional retailers.

模式就是低价进货、低价出货，店面简单像仓库，让优惠自己说话。

The model is buy cheap, sell cheap, keep the store simple, warehouse like, and let the bargains do the marketing.

那问题到底出在哪呢？

So what went wrong here?

以前一直都挺好的。

It's almost always been good.

经济一紧张，咱们自然会精打细算，找便宜货、看性价比。

When the economy gets tougher, we expect consumers to trade down, start looking for deals and value.

换句话说，就是去搜罗那些东西同款但价格明显更低的地方。

In other words, they go hunting for the place where the same product is meaningfully cheaper.

奥利这种店，简直就是为这种时候量身定做的。

Ollie's is built for this kind of moment.

同时，传统零售商一不行，他们反而更受益。

At the same time, they also benefit from weakness in traditional retailers.

因为当商店卖不动货的时候，就得赶紧出手，才能腾出空间进新货。

Because when stores can't move enough merchandise, they need to sell it to somebody before they can bring in a new inventory.

而Ollie's往往就是那个接盘的人。

Always is often that somebody.

所以最近股价表现这么差，真是让人想不通。

That's why it's so darn puzzling that the stock's been a real disappointment lately.

股价从最高点141美元左右一路跌下来，现在才卖到九十多美元。

The stock's down sharply from its fifty two week high of a $141 and change, now trading in the low nineties.

今年到目前为止，已经跌了16%。

It's off 16% year to date.

这股票2022年还不到40美元，到2025年冲上140多，然后又大幅回撤，现在才92美元上下，太反常了。

This is a stock that went from under $40 in 2022 to more than a $140 in 2025 before giving back a huge chunk of that move, coming back to 92 and changes of today, highly unalways like.

到底是什么导致了这么惨烈的下跌？

What caused such a savage decline?

说白了，就是华尔街预期太高，而Ollie's的业绩跟不上。

Very simply, Wall Street's expectations got too high, and Ollie's execution couldn't keep up.

他们倒也没彻底搞砸，但问题太多了——毕竟股价还高过其他折扣连锁店，而那些店可稳得多。

They never totally dropped the ball, but there were too many missteps given that the stock was trading at a premium to the other off price chains, which were much more consistent, frankly.

去年八月底，他们财报各项数据全超预期，还上调了全年预测。

Late last August, always reported a clean beat on every level and raised its full year forecast.

股价一开始猛涨，但这股劲儿没撑住。

The stock initially shot up in response, but the case didn't last.

到了去年十二月再发财报，同店销售额又没达到预期。

When When the company reported again last December, the same store sales came in weaker than expected.

管理层虽然上调了预测，结果还是没达到市场期望。

Ingo management raised their forecast and still came in light versus expectations.

那时候，华尔街都盼着奥利能大干一场，毕竟刚有家大公司申请了第七章破产清算。

At the time, Wall Street was expecting something great from Ollie's given the big loss that just filed for chapter chapter seven bankruptcy liquidation.

结果呢？他们没顶上。

The company didn't come through.

今年三月公布最新财报时，季度表现其实还行。

When all these reported latest results in March, the quarter was fine.

没什么特别出彩的。

Not anything super impressive.

销售额略低于预期，但同比还是涨了16.8%。

Sales came in a bit light compared to expectations, but we're still up 16.8 year over year.

同店销售额增长了3.6%。

Same store sales increased 3.6%.

利润基本符合预期，今年迄今涨了将近17%，但说实话，我对那个同店数据挺失望的。

Earnings came in basically in line almost 17% year to date, but I gotta tell you, I was disappointed by that same store number.

这季度不算完美，但也算不上多糟。

That wasn't a perfect quarter, but it wasn't all that bad.

管理层对全年业绩的预测还挺扎实的。

And management's full year forecast was solid.

从那以后，股价一直慢慢往下走。

Since then, the stocks continued to drift lower.

你完全有理由说它该跌，毕竟股价之前是按完美预期来定价的——它之前确实挺完美的。

And you could easily argue it deserved to come down because the stock was priced for perfection because it had been pretty well perfect.

但如果它们重回完美表现，现在的股价可就便宜太多了。

Yet this decline of the stocks gotten a heck of a lot cheaper if they regain their perfection.

在高点时，Ollie's 的股价大约是37倍市盈率，而今年跌到只剩20倍左右，按当前盈利预期算。

At its highs, Ollie's was trading roughly 37 times, or he's down selling roughly 20 times this year's earnings estimates.

我真不记得它以前有过这么便宜的时候。

I can't recall it being this cheap any other time.

问题不在于Ollie's快撑不住了。

Again, the problem is not that Ollie's is falling apart.

问题是预期太高了。

Problem is that expectations got too high.

股价涨得太贵，而其他注重价值的零售商业绩却更好了。

Stock got too expensive and other value oriented retailers were putting up better numbers.

一般来说，便宜的股票总被当成群体里的灰姑娘。

Generally cheaper stocks always became the redheaded stepchild of the group.

你看，我最爱的TJX刚公布了5%的同店销售增长。

Mean, look, My fave TJX just reported 5% same store sales growth.

罗斯的同店销售额增长了百分之九，表现相当不错。

Ross reported nine same store sales really good.

道恩百货也交出了4.3%的增长成绩。

Dow general put up 4.3.

相比之下，奥利的最近一个季度同店销售额只增长了3.6%，真没什么好吹的。

By comparison, Ollie's 3.6% same store sales growth is in the most recent quarter is nothing to write home about.

就是没别人那么亮眼。

It just wasn't as good as everybody else.

说到底，奥利跟TJX根本不是一档子事。

At the end of the day, Ollie's is not TJX.

TJX可是全球折扣零售的标杆，行业老大。

TJX is best in class global off price machine.

人家规模大、品牌稳，衣服家居全都有，客户群也广。

It has scale, consisting brands, apparel, home, and a broader customer base.

奥利规模小多了，货品也窄，主打清仓货，股价比TJX低一点才合理。

Ollie's is much smaller with a niche assortment that's more closeout driven and stock deserves to trade at a discount to TJX.

很长一段时间里，Ollie's 的估值其实比 TJX 还高。

For a long time, Ollie's actually traded at a premium TJX.

疫情一来，TJX 和 Ollie's 就咬得特别紧。

When COVID hit, TGX and Ollie's were neck and neck.

现在 TJX 的市盈率大概在30倍左右，而 Ollie's 只有20倍。

Now TGX sells for roughly 30 times earnings, while Ollie's trades at 20 times earnings.

情况完全颠倒过来了。

It's flipped.

但要是价格合适，我觉得 Ollie's 还是能重新变得有吸引力。

But at the right price, I think Ollie's can begin to become interesting again.

现在的折扣实在太大了。

It's just too much of a discount.

不过现在真有投资价值吗？

Is it interesting right now though?

听我说，Ollie's 依然还有很大的增长空间。

Look, Ollie's still has a long runway.

他们去年结束时有645家门店。

They finished last year with 645 locations.

长期计划是要把门店数量翻倍，目标超过1300家。

Long term plans to double that footprint with the goal of more than 1,300 stores.

光是今年，他们就打算新开75家店。

This year alone, they plan to open 75 new locations.

这增长势头可真不小。

That's a lot of unit growth.

在业绩电话会上，CEO埃里克·范德法尔克说，只要把10%的门店扩张、2%的同店销售增长，再加上回购股票，奥利就完全有信心保持中个位数的稳定盈利增长。

On the conference call, CEO Eric Vanderfalk stated that by combining 10% unit growth with 2% same store sales growth and equipment to buy back stock, Ollie's is confident they can keep delivering consistent earnings growth in the mid teens.

他们确实有这个财力做到。

They certainly have the balance sheet to pull that off.

奥利去年底手上有5.628亿美元的现金和投资，几乎没什么有息负债，当然，像所有实体零售商一样，他们还是有租赁负债。

Ollie's ended last year with $562,800,000 of cash and investments versus almost no funded debt, though it still carries lease liabilities like any brick and mortar retailer.

去年他们回购了7380万美元的股票，今年计划再回购大约1亿美元。

The company bought back $73,800,000 worth of stock last year and plans it around a $100,000,000 worth of repurchase this year.

换句话说，这可不是一家挣扎求生的零售商。

In other words, this is not a retailer that's fighting for survival.

这是一家手握现金、坐拥地产机会、门店网络快速扩张的公司。

It's a retailer with money, real estate opportunities, and a rapidly growing store store base.

股价现在有点涨过头了。

Stocks just got ahead of itself.

别提那个会员计划了，我都有话说。

And don't get me started on the loyalty program.

Ollie's Army 不是付费订阅模式，我可不敢说它跟Costco一样——虽然我超爱Costco。

Ollie's Army is not a paid subscription business, so I can't pretend this is Costco, which, you know, I love.

但会员的积分和优惠券，实实在在地让人养成像订阅一样的消费习惯：反复光顾、数据更准、还能直接触达那些本来就爱淘便宜货的顾客。

But the rewards and coupons from the loyalty program create a subscription like behavior, repeat trips, better customer data, direct marketing channel to people who are already or identify themselves as bargain hunters.

这1700万Ollie's Army成员，包括我在内，都是真金白银的资产。

Those 17,000,000 members of Ollie's army, including yours truly, are a real asset.

归根结底，Ollie's不是TGX，也不该拿TGX的估值，但更不该被当成快倒闭的零售商来炒。

In the end, Ollie's is not TGX and it may not deserve a TGX multiple, but also shouldn't like a trade like a broken retailer.

这本来是门好生意，只是被炒得太贵，后来投资者转向更大、更干净的价值股，它就被甩在后面了。

This is good business that got priced too richly, then got punished as investors moved toward bigger, cleaner value names.

现在股价回到九十多块，市盈率也合理多了，我觉得这时候的性价比简直太诱人了。

Now with the stock back in the low nineties and trading around much more reasonable price to reach multiple, I think the risk reward is a lot more enticing.

所以我觉得，奥利的股票现在该加进购物清单了。

So I'd say that Ollie's now belongs on the shopping list.

就算经历了估值压缩，现在的股价也显得挺公道，甚至可以说挺便宜的。

The stock seems more fairly priced and cheap right now, even with this multiple contraction.

但如果整个市场继续向好，那些不在数据中心板块、估值偏低的公司，迟早也会跟着沾光。

But if the entire market continues to do well, companies outside the data center with low multiples should eventually start to enjoy the fun.

从小做起。

Small.

从小做起。

Small.

先从小的开始。

Start small.

慢慢买入，趁股价疲软时关注三件事：同店销售额、新店盈利表现，还有毛利率。

Buy gradually and weakness and watch three things, same store sales, new store productivity, and the gross margin.

只要我能持续实现正的同店增长，开店又不拖累回报率，还能稳住毛利率，我觉得这只股票还能翻身。

If I always can keep delivering positive comps while opening stores without ruining returns and holding that gross margin, I think this stock can work again.

这话听着挺大胆的，毕竟之前实在太惨了。

Bold claim because it's been really bad.

说白了就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

你看Ollie's这家公司，业务谈不上完美，股价也让人抓狂。

When you look at Ollie's, the business isn't perfect and the stock's been frustrating.

股价确实够烂。

The stock's bad.

现在算不上最划算的抄底机会，但比起过去几年，确实便宜多了。

It's still not the best bargain at current levels, but it's certainly cheaper than it's been in ages.

在人人都想捡便宜的经济环境下，Ollie's的商业模式依然简单又戳中人心。

In an economy where everyone wants a bargain, always still has a simple premise that resonates.

好东西，便宜货。

Good stuff cheap.

如果价格正好合适——可能现在就是——这只股票也适用这个道理。

And at the right price, which may be right here, that may apply to the stock too.

广告后，《疯狂金钱》继续回来。

Mad Money's back after the break.

接下来，你们有提问。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克雷默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接接下来的快节奏闪电问答吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

闪电问答结束后。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

滑雪彻底凉了。

Skiing dead.

我这边正在直播。

I'm live on.

来自亚利桑那的理查德。

Richard in Arizona.

理查德。

Richard.

理查德。

Richard.

下午好，JK。

Afternoon, JK.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我挺好的，老兄。

I'm doing well, partner.

你最近怎么样？

What's happening with you?

还行。

Alright.

我听的时间不长，是因为入行时间也短。

So short time listener only because short time investing.

不过我有个问题，就是Joby和joby.w。

But one of my questions here is that Joby and joby.w.

S。

S.

Joby的问题在于风险太高了。

The problem with Joby it's way too risky.

如果你刚起步，我建议你选个能长期上涨的项目。

If you're just starting out I want you to be in something that could actually go up over time.

别选那种一上来就猛涨，转头就暴跌的。

You don't feel like you get discussive and drops real quick.

Joby 就可能变成这样。

That's what could happen with Joby.

咱们得小心点。

Let's be careful out there.

我想去得克萨斯，还有肯塔基那边的税率。

I wanna go to Texas, Kentucky tax.

肯塔基德比，你看到吉姆博了吗？

Kentucky Derby, do you see Jimbo?

老兄，最近咋样？

What's going on my friend?

哦，锁定期5月5号到期。

Oh, lockout expiration on May 5.

财报是5月6号公布。

Earnings reported May 6.

你对这只股票怎么看？

What are your thoughts on the stock?

十亿分之一的概率。

Billion to one.

我们查过这个十亿分之一的情况。

We looked into billion to one.

我们认为它是一家非常出色的诊断公司。

We think it's really good diagnostic company.

不过现在整个诊断行业都不太行，不管是贝克曼库尔特还是雅培，股价都没起色。

Now diagnostic companies themselves have been going down, whether it be Beck and Dickinson, whether it be Abbott Labs, they've not been working.

但话说回来，这只股票压根就没涨过。

That said, this stock never ran to begin with.

我觉得这个‘十亿一’是个赢家。

I think billion one's a winner.

我们连线一下亚利桑那的霍华德。

Let's go to Howard in Arizona.

霍华德。

Howard.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你最近

How are

怎么样？

you doing?

我挺好的，霍华德。

I'm good, Howard.

有个问题。

Question.

我想问问你关于波士顿科学的事。

Question is to you question is to you of Boston Scientific.

是不是全都

Is it all.

唉，华尔街的竞争实在太激烈了。

Well the competition just got too strong from Wall Street.

他们总是一步之遥躲过追捕，结果这次还是被抓了。

They're always one step out of the posse and they've just been caught.

我觉得他们还能翻盘。

I think they can come back.

我想等股价见底了，再决定是不是真的可以了。

I just want to see the stock bottom before I say okay I think it's okay now.

我们请Xander Merrill发言，Xander。

Let's go to Xander Merrill please Xander.

嘿，Jim，我是MSI的航天工程师Deepak，我特别佩服Rocket Lab的专注和品质。

Hey Jim I'm a spacecraft engineer at MSI Deepak and I really admire Rocket Lab due to their dedication and quality.

我持有一段时间了，表现一直很棒，但我想听听你的看法。

I've been holding it for a while extremely well but I'm curious what you think.

我跟你想法完全一样。

I feel exactly like you.

真的跟你一模一样。

Exactly like you.

两周前他们出问题的时候，股价几乎没动，就跌了一天，别的没啥。

And when they had a problem two weeks ago, the stock barely leave, but went down for a day, and that's about it.

我觉得火箭实验室绝对是赢家，这是一只我目前全力看好、给它点赞的投机股。

I think Rocket Labs is a winner, and that is a speculative stock that I am blessing right here.

我们连线宾夕法尼亚的萨姆。

Let's go to Sam, Pennsylvania.

萨姆。

Sam.

吉姆，现在光学电子领域正处在牛市。

Jim, there's a bull market right now in optical electronics.

其中一家处于核心位置的公司是Fabrinet。

One of the companies that sits at the at the center of this is Fabrinet.

这家公司市值有260亿美元。

The company's $26,000,000,000 market cap.

过去一年，它的股价涨了大约两倍。

It's up about 200% in the last year.

我对你在光学电子牛市背景下怎么看Fabrinet特别好奇。

And I'm so curious what you think Fabrinet here given the bull market in optical electronics.

但他们确实

But they are

我刚才开场的时候就提到过这家公司。

I am I mean, this is one that I talked about at the top of the show.

这正是那种牛市。

This is the kind of bull market.

你说得对极了。

You're absolutely right.

不过我觉得这波行情该降温了。

I do think that it needs to cool though.

我觉得得回调一点才好。

I think it needs to drop back a little.

你要是明天买入，可别被这波回调给套住了。

And I want don't you to be caught in that downdraft if you buy it tomorrow.

我们来听听来自俄克拉荷马的彼得怎么说。

Let's go to Peter in Oklahoma please.

彼得，你讲吧。

Peter.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

你最近怎么样？

How are you?

我挺好的，彼得。

I am good, Peter.

你呢？你最近还好吗？

How are you doing?

恭喜你越来越成熟睿智了。

Congratulations on growing older and wiser.

哎呀，谢谢你。

Oh, thank you.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

有什么我可以帮你的吗？

How can I help?

今年我比去年更保守了，我挑了四个公用事业股，我觉得它们会从数据基建中受益。

I'm I'm kinda off risk this year more than I was last year, and I put together four utilities that I think are going to benefit from the data build out.

我特别想跟你聊聊的是Pinnacle。

And the one I'm gonna ask you about is Pinnacle.

Pinnacle其实没怎么从数据基建里受益，不过Adams倒是家不错的公司。

Pinnacle hasn't really been a beneficiary of the data build up, but Adams be really good company.

我可没说让你赶紧抛掉Pinnacle。

So I'm not going tell you to run from Pinnacle.

它今年年初以来已经涨了一大截了。

Now it has just had a giant a gigantic move up from where it was just at the beginning of the year.

但话说回来，这公司不错，你可以现在买一点，等跌一点再补点。

But that said, you know what it's a good company buy some here and then buy some little bit lower.

我们连线一下北卡罗来纳的吉姆。

Let's go to Jim in North Carolina Jim.

嗨，吉姆，谢谢你接电话。

Hey Jim thanks for taking my call.

我年初建了一点 Talent Energy 的仓，现在账面上亏了6.4%。

I thought I established a position in talent energy at the beginning of the year and I'm sitting on a 6.4% paper loss.

我想问问你对这家公司怎么看？是该拿着还是赶紧割肉？

I was wondering what you think about talent energy whether I should hold or sell.

我跟你说，这波因为伊朗局势带动的市场上涨，它都没跟上，我真不知道你还能指望啥。

I'll tell you if it if it hasn't gone up yet with this market that we've got because of Iran I don't know how well you're going to do.

你看，这公司就是个电力基建股，但分红一点吸引力都没有。

I mean look, it's a power infrastructure play without a good yield.

这种东西，我不碰。

That's not for me.

我真正看好的那些，分红都挺香的。

Some of them that I really like do have good yields.

我们连线一下来自堪萨斯的梅尔。

Let's go to Merle in Kansas.

梅尔。

Merle.

你好，吉姆。

Hello, Jim.

我超爱这个节目。

Love the show.

哎呀，太感谢了，老兄。

Oh, thank you, man.

最近咋样？

What's up?

嘿。

Hey.

我打电话是想问问你对一家航天科技和基建公司的看法，我当初以8美元入手的，想听听你对它未来潜力的判断。

I'm calling about a space technology and infrastructure company that I got in at $8 and wanted your thoughts on its upside.

是Intuitive Machines公司。

It's intuitive machines.

明白了。

Okay.

这算是个挺冒险的股票，但我还是愿意推荐一下。

This is this is kind of speculative stock that I'm gonna endorse.

我觉得Rocket Lab不错。

I like Rocket Labs.

这个我也看好。

I like this.

我觉得在SpaceX上市前，这些公司里随便挑一个都能赚，我支持你投资它们。

I think any one of these is going leading up to the IPO of SpaceX is going to be a winner, and I'm going to bless them when you call them.

你要是真想投，就打给我，我觉得现在确实是布局火箭科技的好时机。

Call me on them because I do think that this is a decent time to speculate on rocket and rocket technology.

我们接一下来自宾夕法尼亚的杰瑞德。

Let's go to Jared in Pennsylvania, please.

杰瑞德。

Jared.

吉米·奇尔，新书太棒了。

Jimmy Chill, love the new book.

感谢你提供的这么多优质投资建议。

Thanks for all the great investment.

太感谢了。

Thanks a lot.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这个

The

收购Top Build的事儿。

acquisition of top build.

你对布拉德·雅各布斯和2XO怎么看？

What's your view on Brad Jacobs and two x o.

哦，明白了。

Oh, okay.

布拉德是个厉害角色。

Brad's a winner.

布拉德会接连收购一堆公司，最后搞成一个全国性的家居建材大平台，仓库遍布各地，啥都有。

Brad is going to make a series of acquisitions that are going to make it into a great home building, let's say clearing house place with just lots of different warehouse, lots of different stuff all over the country.

等利率一降，股价就能从20块涨到30块。

And when rates start coming down, the stock is going to go from 20 to 30.

你得跟着布拉德·雅各布斯混，别跟他对着干。

You want to be with Brad Jacobs, not against them.

新泽西的艾伦，艾伦。

Allen in New Jersey, Allen.

吉姆·克莱默，来自新泽西的Kinek。

Jim Cramer from Kinek New Jersey.

行，知道了。

All right.

怎么了？

What's going on.

我大概一年半前买了国内一家领先的半成品铝制品生产商。

My question is about a year and a half ago I purchased the premier domestic semi fabricated aluminum producer.

他们做航空航天和通用产品，上周刚公布了财报。

They make aerospace and general products, and they reported earnings last week.

第一季度的利润相当于前九个月总利润的81%，管理层对产品线扩张和产品结构优化特别兴奋，因为波音这些公司越来越多地采购他们的航空航天部件，利润也更高。

First quarter earnings were 81 percent of the previous nine months earnings, And management is excited about increased products, better product mix as Boeing and others do more aerospace where they make more money.

所以是哪一家，哪一家？

So which one which

是哪一家？

one are

你关注的是哪一家？

you interested in?

你看好哪一家？

Which one do

你指的是哪个？

you want?

凯撒铝业。

Kaiser aluminum.

凯撒铝业最近涨得太猛了。

Kaiser aluminum is just up on such a spike.

我知道这公司简直太棒了。

I know it's absolutely terrific.

铝业确实受益于各种关税政策，但我没法推荐它。

And aluminum's got all the tariff stuff going for it, but I can't recommend it.

就是直线上涨，没别的。

It's just straight up.

不好意思。

I'm sorry.

各位，这就是闪电轮的全部内容了。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is conclusion of the lightning round.

本环节由嘉信理财冠名赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来要讨论的是：数据中心的兴起，真会令全美电价飙升吗？

Coming up, will the rise of the data center really cause utility rates to explode across The US?

克雷默说别急，接下来他来拆解原因。

Cramer says not so fast, and he's breaking down why next.

全美各地的政客们似乎都认同一个观点：数据中心推高了电费，却没给当地社区带来多少就业机会。

Politicians around the country seem to be coalescing around the idea that data centers raise the cost of electricity without providing much in the way of jobs to their communities.

但我开始怀疑，这真相真有这么简单吗？

But I'm beginning to wonder whether that's the truth.

确实，之前出现过一些不靠谱的案例，这个我们都知道。

While there have been some bad actors out there, we know that.

但我采访过好几位持不同看法的人。

I've interviewed a string of people who say otherwise.

能源巨头Sempra的首席执行官杰夫·马丁说，得州建了这么多数据中心，电价根本没涨。

Jeff Martin, the CEO of energy giant, Sempra, says that rates have not gone up in the state of Texas despite the data center built there.

他指出，只要数据中⼼把成本分摊到更广的区域，同时持续扩大产能，就不会明显推高消费者的电费。

He pointed out that the data centers can be integrated without significantly increasing the cost of electricity for consumers as long as they spread the cost over a larger area and keep growing production.

PG&E的首席执行官帕蒂·波皮更进一步说，数据中⼼其实降低了她在加州地区的电价。

Patty Poppy, the CEO of PG and E, goes a step further saying data centers actually reduce the cost of electricity in her California territory.

所以她很欢迎它们入驻，因为既能创造就业，又能降低电价。

So she welcomes them to come in because of the jobs they provide and the lowering of the cost of electricity.

她跟我说过：‘每增加一吉瓦的负荷，电价就能下降1%以上。’

Here's what she told me, quote, every gigawatt we have will reduce rates by 1% or more.

所以我们还会继续推进这种通过增加负荷来压低电价的策略。’

So we are going to continue our load increase rate reducing strategy, end quote.

我知道事情没那么简单，但今天早上在《街头早报》上，我们采访了杰夫·布劳。

Now I know that nothing's cut and dry, but this morning on Squawk on the Street, we interviewed Jeff Blau.

他是雷德公司和雷德数字的首席执行官，刚为密歇根州一个专为甲骨文打造的数据中心园区拿到了160亿美元的投资。

He's the CEO of Related Companies and Chairman of Related Digital about his company's securing of $16,000,000,000 for a data center campus in Michigan, a purpose built one for Oracle.

我们直接问他：数据中心建起来后，对电价和水资源会有什么影响？

We asked him point blank, what will be the impact on rates and on water when the data center's built?

他是这么说的。

Here's what he said.

我们进入社区时，对数据中心的做法是确保客户为用电全额付费，比如。

When we go into communities, our method for data centers is to make sure that our customers are paying full freight for energy use, for example.

在这里，甲骨文和OpenAI最终能为客户每年节省三亿美元。

Here, Oracle and OpenAI will ultimately create $300,000,000 a year of savings for customers.

所以不会让客户来补贴能源消耗。

So not relying on on customers to subsidize the energy uses.

我跟他说，我老是听到有人担心用水量和电价上涨的问题。

I told him I keep hearing about concerns over water usage and rates going higher.

这是他的回应。

Here's his response.

这是一个封闭式水循环系统。

This is a closed loop water system.

我们用水更少。

We use less water.

我们用的水比以前这片地上的农民还少。

We will use less water than the farmers did on this land prior to us building here.

数据中⼼刚在全美铺开的时候，有些项目做得不太规范。

When the data center develop build out started in the country, some of them were not done in the best way.

他们没按实际用量付费。

So they weren't paying their full share.

他们用蒸发冷却，浪费了数百万加仑的水。

They used evaporative water, and so millions and millions of gallons of water were using.

这可能跟政客本身有关。

Maybe it has to do with the politicians themselves.

密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默对数据中⼼敞开大门。

Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, welcomed data centers with open arms.

布劳说她非常配合。

Blau said she was, quote, extremely cooperative, end quote.

但她也为这个行业定下了规矩。

But she also laid down some rules of the road for the industry.

当布劳看到一些州反对这些满是服务器的仓库时，他说，这些地方其实错失了数据中心能为周边社区带来的种种好处。

When Blau sees the states objecting to these warehouses full of servers, he says they're gonna miss out on all the ways data centers can spur health in nearby communities.

摩根大通备受尊敬的战略家迈克尔·塞姆布拉斯指出，我们可能把一件小事夸大成了天大的问题。

Michael Semblas, the widely respected strategist at JPMorgan, points out that we may be making an angry mountain out of a meek molehill.

自2022年以来，全美实际电价只从每千瓦时13美分涨到了15美分，涨幅只有两美分。

US power prices have only risen by two cents per kilowatt in real terms on a national level since 2022 from 13 to 15¢.

所以他说，‘有些关于数据中心影响的评论，跟实际情况根本对不上。’

So he says, quote, some commentary on data centers impacts is a bit disconnected to the actual data.

与其他许多国家不同的是，美国的电费只占家庭支出的1.4%。

Unlike many other countries right now, electricity prices are also just 1.4 of household expenditures, end quote.

话虽如此，很明显，有些数据中心开发商和租户在用水用电上占了太大便宜。

All that said, it's clear that some data center builders and occupiers got too good a deal on water and power.

他们当然不是完全无辜，但那些把好处全送出去的政治家们也脱不了干系。

They're not blameless, but neither are the politicians who gave away the store.

不过，与其叫停数据中心建设，不如让我们的领导人要求运营商遵守惠特默州长在密歇根州定下的标准，重新谈判那些损害社区利益的合同条款。

Still, instead of calling for moratorium on data center building, maybe our leaders should demand that data center operators live up to the standards that governor Whitmer set in Michigan and change up the terms of the contracts that have been hurting communities.

说到底，其实有个简单的办法。

In the end, there's an easy way to do this.

你只需要那些懂点商业、愿意深究细节、能好好管住这些数据中心运营商的政治家。

You just need politicians who know a little bit about business and care enough about the details to hold these data center operators responsible as they should.

但考虑到我们现在的政治体制，这要求可能太高了。

But given our political system, maybe that's too tall in order.

我倒是希望说，总有个牛市在等着你。

I'd like to say there's always bull market somewhere.

这里是《疯狂金钱》，为你量身推荐机会。

Prompts try to find just for you here at Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他平台发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

不要把克雷默的任何观点当作具体的投资建议或操作策略，它只是表达他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克雷默的观点基于他觉得可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司并不保证这些信息的完整或准确，别拿它当真。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

想看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去干一件以前没人干过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种不同的样子。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是得相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short, and

想干大事，就得有大格局。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·布斯坦主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.