Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 5/1/26

这还不包括2021年那个特别火爆的年份，那一年近400笔交易总共融了14240亿美元。

And that includes the extremely busy year of 2021, where nearly 400 deals collectively raised a $142,400,000,000.

所以咱们说的是，本来得七八年才凑齐的IPO规模，现在几个月就搞定了。

So we're talking about seven or eight years worth of IPOs coming in the span of just a few months.

不过他们可能也没打算卖这么多。

Now they probably won't sell that much.

我们听说SpaceX可能只打算融750亿美元，这简直是个超小比例的配售，因为按2万亿美元的估值算，这还不到总股本的4%。

We've been hearing that SpaceX may only wanna raise $75,000,000,000, which would be a super sliver deal because it would be less than 4% of the share count at a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation.

但就算这样，也比历史上最大的IPO——阿里巴巴——还大三倍。

But that's still three times the size of the largest IPO in market history, Alibaba.

我这儿有个好消息和一个坏消息，关于这种超小比例配售的。

I've got good news and bad news about sliver deals.

先说好消息吧。

The good news, we'll give that to you first.

一开始，当实际可交易的股票数量被人为压得很低时，股价往往会疯涨。

Initially, when number of shares actually available to trade is artificially low, those stocks roar.

但一旦所有股票都上市流通，这些股价就会被打得惨不忍睹。

But once all the supply becomes available, those stocks, they get hammered.

这正是我最担心的地方。

That's what I'm worried about here.

一开始暴涨，六个月后却迎来痛苦的回调。

A big opening followed by painful correction about six months later.

简直就是痛苦之家。

The house of pain.

尤其是纳斯达克，本来大家还以为它要等很久才让大型公司加入指数，结果现在居然马上改了规则，允许大型公司直接加入——这会迫使所有跟踪这个指数的基金不得不赶紧买入，而这些基金大多还是加了杠杆的。

Especially after the Nasdaq, which seemed like it had been a SpaceX IPO deal, changes rules to allow large companies to be added to the index, get this, immediately, which should cause even more forced buying by all the money that is that is is basically leveraged to that index.

不幸的是，大型IPO，尤其是科技巨头的IPO，经常上演这种暴涨后暴跌的戏码。

Unfortunately, you often see this kind of pop and drop action for large IPOs, especially large tech IPOs.

所以听好了，这点我必须提醒你们注意。

So look, this is something I gotta keep in front of you.

我真的非常担心这事。

I'm very concerned about it.

好了。

Alright.

我来给你举几个例子。

Let me let me take you through some examples.

第一个，有史以来最大的美国IPO——阿里巴巴。

First, the largest American IPO of all time, Alibaba.

一开始走势纠结，但IPO几周后股价突然起飞。

After a mixed start, the stock started catching fire a few weeks after the IPO.

明白吗？

Okay?

到2014年11月，股价冲到了120美元。

With me running to a high of a 120 in November 2014.

但之后股价几乎跌了一整年。

But then the stock spent nearly a year going lower.

最后跌到2015年9月的57美元出头。

So so so so Eventually, of $57 and change September 2015.

快十二年过去了，阿里巴巴现在股价大约是131美元，比IPO后不久的高点还高出11美元左右。

Nearly twelve years later, Alibaba's at a $131, about $11 above where the stock peaked shortly after the IPO.

定价真是没搞明白啊。

Bad work there, the pricing.

你看Visa和通用汽车，它们在IPO第一年也都是类似的走势，这两家分别是美国历史上第二和第五大IPO。

You see similar charts in the first year for Visa and General Motors, which had the second and fifth largest IPOs in US history.

第四大的是Facebook，现在叫Meta Platforms。

The fourth largest was then Facebook, now Meta Platforms.

那个简直是惨败，上市头几个月股价直接腰斩还多。

That one was outright flop, getting more than cut in half in its first few months of trading.

主要是他们转型手机端的时候出了大问题。

Well, they did have a problem switching from desktop to cell phone.

不过话说回来，Visa、通用汽车和Facebook现在都成了超牛的长期股。

Of course, Visa, GM, and Facebook have all gone on to be incredible long term stocks.

Visa是从2009年初开始起飞的，距离它IPO还不到一年。

Visa starting in early two thousand nine, less than a year after its IPO.

Facebook在IPO后初期表现糟糕，但几个月内就翻身了。

Facebook starting within a few months of its IPO after the terrible start.

通用汽车花了点时间，但最终成了大赢家，只是第一年真够难熬的。

GM took a while, but eventually it did become a winner, but the first year was rough.

很多公司能翻身，靠的是巴里·巴森那套神操作，还有那堪称完美的股票回购。

A lot of them making a winner was they did amazing Barry Barson, an amazing job and an amazing buyback too, by the way.

我担心的是SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic，它们一上来太火，把整个市场的空气都吸干了。

What I'm worried about with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is that they'll have they'll have hot starts that sucks all of the air out of the market.

那些经历过大幅回调的，坑苦了那些太冲动的散户。

That experienced major pullbacks that hurt home gamers who got too enthusiastic.

这最让我担心。

That's my biggest fear.

最糟糕的情况，就是Rivian。

The nightmare scenario here is Rivian.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是美国历史上第七大IPO。

That's the seventh largest IPO in American history.

2021年11月上市时股价是78美元。

Came public at $78 November 2021.

一周内股价冲到179美元高点，结果到2022年5月就跌到20美元以下了。

We had to a high of a $179 in change within a week, and then fell below $20 by May 2022.

现在股价才15美元。

Today, it sells at $15.

天啊。

Wow.

Rivian才是真正的噩梦，因为它上市的2021年11月，正好是整个股市的顶峰。

Riffy is the nightmare because the I its IPO of November 2021 coincide with the top for the entire stock market.

说白了，这一点我们得反复强调、反复讲。

So here's the bottom line, and this is something that we're gonna come back to and back to and back to.

这些IPO的事儿，你得时时刻刻放在心上。

I gotta keep you in front and center when it comes to these IPOs.

因为如果真有什么能彻底击垮这个市场，肯定不是财报。

Because if there's one thing that can really fell this market, it's not gonna be the earnings.

明白吧？

Okay?

也不是半导体。

It's not gonna be the semis.

是新股一股脑儿涌进来。

It's a flood of new stock.

要是按历史经验看，这些大型IPO可能得经历一整年的动荡交易，才能稳住脚跟，成为真正的赢家。

And if history is any guide, it might take a year of turbulent trading before these large IPOs can become sustainable winners.

换句话说，你根本没必要一上市就急着买SpaceX、OpenAI或者Anthropic，迟早会有更好的入场机会。

In other words, you don't need to feel compelled to buy SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic right out of the gate because you'll probably get a better entry price down the road.

我只是希望它们别把整个市场都拖下水。

I just hope they don't take the rest of the market down with them.

《疯狂金钱》又回来发力了。

Mad Money is back at delivering.

接下来，活牛可是出了名的甲烷来源。

Coming up, live cattle are a well known source of gas.

但你知道吗？活牛期货和天然气期货之间其实有个规律。

But did you know there is a pattern connecting live cattle futures to natural gas futures?

克拉默马上揭晓这个秘密。

Cramer is revealing it next.

是什么让你有信心去干一件从来没人干过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开创先河的女性，正在改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

其中之一是

One of

我最欣赏的一条建议：想想你老板的老板需要什么。

my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss' boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种不同的样子。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

说到底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short, and

想干大事，就得有大格局。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持《CNBC变革者与权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二更新，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

这个市场里，我们得盯紧大宗商品价格。

This is a market where we need to care about commodity prices.

这主要得归因于那场和公羊的战争。

Thanks largely to the war with the ram.

我们遭遇了石油冲击，而这种冲击往往会波及整个系统。

We got an oil shock, and oil shocks tend to spread through the entire system.

虽然需要一点时间，但确实会蔓延开来。

They take a little while, but they do.

大宗商品这玩意儿挺古怪的，所以今晚我想带你们看看两种看似走向相反的品种：天然气和活牛。

Commodities are a strange beast, and that's why tonight I wanna walk you through two that seemed headed in different directions, natural gas and live cattle.

要讲清楚这个，我们得请来卡莉·加纳一起脱离图表聊聊。

To do that, we have to go off the charts with Carly Garner.

她是个顶尖的技术分析师，资深大宗商品市场策略师，也是Carly Trading的经纪人，还主笔《Carly视角》通讯，基本上是我们《疯狂金钱》节目里的大宗商品专家。

She's a brilliant technician, senior commodity market strategist and broker to Carly Trading, and author of the Carly perspective newsletter, as well as basically being our in house commodities expert here on Mad Money.

加纳的业绩一直非常出色。

Got really good track record as garner season.

天然气和活牛的共同点，可能比你想象的要多，可不只是因为它们都会排放温室气体。

Natural gas and live cattle have more in common than you might think, and not just because they both produce greenhouse gas emissions.

相反，她认为它们都是季节性规律的绝佳例子。

Instead, she sees them as powerful examples of seasonality.

一年里头，它们有时候表现不错，有时候就特别差。

There are times in the year when they tend to be good and times in the year when they tend to be bad.

现在，加纳认为这两者都快要反转了。

Right now, Garner sees both changing course.

天然气价格一直慢慢往下掉，但季节性走势已经开始转向看涨。

Natural gas has been dribbling lower, but the seasonal pattern is starting to turn bullish.

牛肉价格一路猛涨，但季节性趋势马上就要转跌了。

Cattle prices have been charging relentlessly higher, but the seasonal pattern's about to turn bearish.

同时，加纳觉得，做多牛肉的和做空天然气的这两拨人，都快没子弹了。

At the same time, Garner thinks that the cattle bulls and the natural gas beer bears have both run out of ammunition.

如果你押注押得太极端，往往就是反转的信号。

If you're taking pretty extreme positions, they're often signal reversal.

咱们先来看看美国这个怎么都走不出困境的化石燃料——天然气期货的周线图。

So let's start with the weekly chart of the one fossil fuel that can't seem to get out of its own way in this country, and that's the natural gas futures.

关于美国的经济政策，你想怎么说都行。

Say what you will about US economic policy.

过去二十五年里，咱们政府做对了一件事，就是大力推动能源独立。

There's one thing our government's done very right over the past twenty five years, and that's embracing energy independence.

虽然我们 still 会进口一些石油，但现在已经是净出口国了。

Although we still rely on some oil imports, we're now a net exporter.

更重要的是，咱们的天然气多到都不知道怎么用才好。

And more importantly, we have more natural gas than we know what to do with.

全世界现在可惨了，因为伊朗战争导致他们天然气库存告急。

The rest of the world's in dire straits right now because the war with Iran has created natural gas storage.

我们想帮他们，但建新的液化天然气出口终端得花好几年，还得砸进去一大笔钱。

We're trying to supply them, but it takes years to build new liquefied natural gas export terminals to cite them to permanent end of end the huge amount of money.

因为出口能力跟不上，美国的天然气价格一路往下掉，掉得没完没了，现在都跌到加纳说的‘价值区’了。

Given the lack of export capacity, natural gas prices in America have been dripping lower, lower, lower, lower, entering what what corner calls its value zone.

你从周线图上就能看出来。

You can see from the weekly chart.

它压根儿就不涨。

It it never goes up.

我们关注的长期转折价格可能在3.60美元附近。

We can try that a a long term pivot price near $3.60 is what we are gonna be looking at.

明白吗？

Okay?

看这个。

See this one.

就在这个区域，正好有个3.60美元的转折点。

There's a $3.60 pivot right in that space.

一旦价格冲上这条线，走势通常会转强；一旦跌破，就会转弱。

Prices tend to behave bullish when we get above this line and behave bear suit when we're below it.

今年一月初那波惊险的上涨之后，加纳指出，天然气期货始终没跌破趋势线。

After a heart stopping rally in early January, Garner points out that his natural gas futures failed to slip below their trend line.

你看，它撑住了。

See it held.

对。

Okay.

这条蓝色线是趋势线。

Marked in blue trend line.

现在这条线在2.40美元左右，比当前商品价格低了几个美分。

That's currently around $2.40 down a few nickels and dimes from where the commodity currently is trading.

她觉得这个支撑位能撑住，可能为未来几个月价格上涨铺路，因为这里的季节性走势马上要反转了。

Now she thinks this four sports will hold and could pave the way for higher prices in the coming months because the seasonal pattern here is about to turn.

下一张图，你看看这个。

Next chart, Take a look at this.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是天然气期货的周线图，附带CFTC的交易者持仓报告。

This is the weekly chart of the nat gas futures with the CFTC's commitment of traders report.

报告在最底下。

Caught report down at the bottom.

下面这条绿线代表大型投机者——也就是基金经理——的净多头或净空头头寸。

The green line down here represents the net long or short positions of large speculators, meaning money managers.

现在，这种看空情绪已经接近历史性的极端水平。

And right now, it's near historical extremes of negativity.

这些交易员目前的净空头头寸大得离谱。

The traders here are basically net short by a very large margin.

大家都在赌它会继续跌。

Now betting against it.

加纳认为，卖方很快就要耗尽了，一旦没人再卖了，你觉得会发生什么？

Garner thinks that means we'll soon run out of sellers, and when you've got no more sellers, well, guess what happens?

价格往往会反弹。

Prices tend to rise.

当然，这不意味着天然气就彻底跌不动了。

Of course, that doesn't mean that natural gas is done drifting lower.

短期内它可能还会再遭一波打压。

In the short run, it could get hit again.

但从长期来看，加纳觉得我们正朝着反弹的方向走。

But in the long run, Garner believes we are headed for a rebound.

你看看现金市场天然气价格的季节性图表吧。

Just take a look at the seasonal chart of cash market natural gas prices.

这张图涵盖了好多年的数据，把多个日历年的情况都串起来了。

This is they run through all the different pictures of multiple years of this is multiple multiple calendar years.

明白吗？

Okay?

你看到的就是这个趋势。

That's what you're looking at.

每年的价格通常在三月或四月触底，而我们现在刚过完所谓的‘过渡季’——冬天用剩下的天然气库存都消化得差不多了。

They tend to bottom in March or April for the year, and we're coming off the what's called the shoulder season where oversupply from winter gas work through.

接着夏天就来了。

Then the summer arrives.

天热了，空调用电需求就上来了。

We need more power to keep things cool.

记住，事情就是这么发展的。

Remember, this is what happens.

这种模式年复一年地重复着。

This is historical pattern over and over again.

明白吧？

Okay?

天然气价格往往会飙升。

And that gas prices tend to roar.

这可是空调用电的旺季。

This is air conditioner season.

懂了吗？

Alright?

所以加纳对天然气持看涨态度。

That's why Garner's bullish on nat gas.

我本人不这么看，但我觉得有必要提一下。

I don't share this, but I have to point it out.

与此同时，她对实际牛肉行情却更悲观了。

Same time, she's feeling more bearish on actual cattle.

我不太认同这个观点，但必须得提一下：你看看活牛期货的周线图，这波涨得可太猛了。

I don't share this, but I gotta point it Check out the weekly chart of the live cattle futures, which have been roaring higher.

跟天然气一样，加纳认为牛肉价格已经涨到极端水平了。

Like natural gas though, garner thinks cattle prices have reached extreme levels.

只不过这次是涨得太离谱了。

It's just that they're extreme in their bushes.

她说这感觉跟2025年之前那场疯涨一模一样，后来暴跌的时候可吓人了，虽然跌得快，但当时我们德州的教堂信托发了通知，我们二话不说立马撤了，那会儿牛价一掉我们跑得可快了。

She says this feels a lot like the runaway train that the cattle market put together in the 2025 prior to coming to a hideous correction, which didn't last long because my chapel trust in Texas wrote us, and boy, did we ever skedaddle when that when when cattle went down.

你看2025年底那个阶段，相对强度指标，RSI就在这儿往下走了。

As seen in late twenty twenty five, the relative strength, look at the RSI down here.

明白吧？

Okay?

关键的动量指标在冲高之后，明显开始乏力了。

A crucial momentum indicator is showing signs of diminishing momentum after reaching high levels.

她觉得这波势头已经弱下来了。

She thinks it's diminished momentum.

最近这一轮，活牛期货又创了历史新高。

Now we've in the last latest one, we've seen live cattle futures post new all time highs.

这可把我吓了一跳。

That's what spooked me.

明白吧？

Okay?

但相对强弱指标这次没跟着创新高。

But the relative strength index failed to make a new high.

如果她觉得这是真正的顶部，指标本该冲到这里才对。

I would have had to go to here if she thought it was a real top.

这叫背离，技术上叫负向背离。

That's called a negative divergence.

这种技术信号——抱歉，要是价格真能再往上冲，她就不会这么担心了。

This type of technicals a technical signal, I'm sorry, would have gone if this had gone higher, she would be okay.

她觉得这次上涨的动能其实很弱。

She thinks that there's not a lot of strength to this last move.

对吧？

Right?

她就是这么说的。

That's what she said.

即使这确实是弱势的信号——通常确实如此——但这种弱势可能要几周甚至几个月才会真正显现。

Even if it's a sign of weakness, which generally is, that weakness might take weeks or months to take hold.

我同意这个看法。

I agree with that.

不过，在她看来，这仍是拼图中不那么乐观的一块。

Still, it's a piece of the puzzle, and it's not an encouraging one in her opinion.

而且，如果你现在持有牛只，季节性走势也不利于你。

Plus the seasonal pattern is not in your favor if you own cattle right here.

你看看。

Take a look.

小公牛的价格通常在四月达到高点，然后在五月和六月迎来一波猛烈的抛售。

The price of steers tend to peak in April, then suffer a nasty bout of selling in May and June.

所以加纳认为，牛肉价格马上就要见顶了。

And that's why Garner thinks cattle prices are headed for a top.

当然，季节性规律也不是百分百准，但大多数时候，行情确实这么走。

Of course, the seasonal pattern, again, isn't a guarantee, but more often than not, it's the way things play out.

根据三十年的数据，加纳说，最可能的情况是：牛肉价格在三月或四月见顶，接着就是五月和六月的下跌，现在正好赶上这个阶段。

With thirty years of data considered, Garner says the most likely pattern is a cattle top in March or April followed by a week, May and June, right now.

所以你想想，我们现在的位置相当于哪儿？她说，接下来就会这样走。

So you would this where would we be the equivalent of, and she says it's gonna go like that.

现在来看看牛肉期货的周线图，还有CFTC的交易商持仓报告，就是我刚提到的那个棉花报告。

Now check out the weekly chart of the cattle futures with the CFTC's commitments of traders or that cotton report that I just mentioned.

记得吧，我们之前一直盯着绿色线，那是大型投机者的持仓。

Remember, we watched the green line for large speculators.

在牛肉期货这波强劲上涨之后，这些资金的净多头仓位已经高得吓人了。

And after this remarkable rally in the cattle futures, these money measures have huge net long position.

加纳指出，自2023年以来，投机者这种极端的多头头寸，通常只会引发短期回调，而不是长期下跌。

Gartner points out that since 2023, extreme long positions by speculators has merely triggered short term corrections rather than a prolonged downturn.

即便如此，这仍是历史上最大的净多头头寸之一。

Even so, this is one of the largest net long positions in history.

过去五次达到这种水平，有三次牛市场更适合卖出而不是买入。

On three of the last five occasions when we reached these levels, the cattle market was a better sell than a buy.

再说了，现在季节性走势也不站在你这边。

Plus, don't forget the seasonal pattern is now going against you.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以她说，我的意思是，你看这波行情有多猛。

So she thinks, I mean, look, this is some run.

她就是在等这样的走势。

She's looking for something like this.

我觉得这价格既不会再涨，也不会再跌。

I feel it's that it's just not gonna go higher and not gonna go lower.

所以我们对这事儿的看法有点不一样。

So we're a little different on this.

说白了就是这样。

Here's the bottom line.

卡莉·加纳分析的图表显示，天然气市场表现疲软，而活牛市场却热得发烫，两者都可能要反转了。

The charts interpreted by Carly Garner suggest that both the tepid natural gas market and the red hot live cattle market could be headed for reversals.

如果看历史规律，这个时候天然气价格通常会暴涨，而牛肉价格却往往会大幅下跌。

If history's any guide, natural gas tends to roar at this time of the year, while cattle prices tend to get take a big hit.

我觉得她说得挺有道理的。

I think she makes a good point.

趋势一旦走得太极端，往往就会反转。

When trends get too extreme, they often reverse themselves.

不过，我对这两个市场都挺担心的。

However, I am concerned about both.

天然气库存太多了，牛却不够用。

There's a lot of natural gas and not enough cattle.

佛罗里达的艾伦，艾伦。

Alan in Florida, Alan.

吉姆，我刚买了你的书，真是你的铁粉啊！

Jim, I just bought your book, Big fan, man.

谢谢你为大伙儿所做的一切。

Thank you for what you've been doing for everyone.

谢谢。

Thank you.

说白了，就是怎么选股票嘛。

I mean, it's how to buy a stock.

我能说什么呢？

What can I say?

真的太感谢你了。

Thank you so much.

听我说啊。

Hey, listen.

我正在看土地桥这个项目。

I'm looking at land bridge.

看起来像个小号的TPL，但收入更稳一点。

It looks like a baby TPL, but with a little bit stable revenue.

现在石油这么火，Landbridge是不是在二叠纪盆地要搞新一轮的地主玩法啊？

Is it the next landlord play in the Permian Basin going on with all this oil stuff going on, man?

谢谢你做的这些，兄弟。

Thanks for what you do, man.

那这只股票叫什么？

And what's the stock?

Landbridge。

Landbridge.

Landbridge。

Landbridge.

LB？

LB?

老兄，咱们这可是老派玩法了。

Man, we got this the old.

Landbridge 这个，我得跟你说说。

Landbridge is one that I'm gonna tell you.

我对它了解不够，没法评价。

I do not know enough to be able to opine on.

我们之前在德州做过项目。

This is a we we did Texas.

我们确实做过德州的土地，不过现在能回到 Landbridge 我挺高兴的。

We did Texas land, but I'm glad to come back with Lambridge.

不好意思。

I'm sorry.

这股票我不太清楚。

I do not know that stock.

这种事难免的。

It happens.

我能说什么呢？

What can I say?

天啊，现在油价一涨，好多油气公司都死而复生了，我得先做点功课，才能发表看法。

Boy, there's a lot of oil and gas that have come back to life because of the price of oil, and I've got to do some homework before I opine on it.

对。

Right.

卡莉·加纳分析的那些数据，意思是天然气价格会涨，但牛肉价格会跌。

The charges interpreted by Carly Garner suggest just that natural gas will war suit while cattle prices will take a hit.

我觉得她讲得挺有道理的，不过我得说，这俩人可都够固执的。

I think she makes some good points, but I have to tell you, I think both of them are stubborn.

也就是说，天然气死活不肯涨，牛价呢，死活不肯跌。

And that means natural gas stubborn low and steer stubborn stubborn high.

更多《疯狂金钱》内容，包括我对哥伦比亚运动服饰的独家专访。

Much more Mad Money including my exclusive with Columbia Sportswear.

财报一出来就跳涨，现在是不是该试试这只股票？

Jump after earnings, is it time to try the stock one for size?

我在看，这会不会是和CEO一起开启一波上涨的起点。

I'm seeing if this could be the start of a move higher with the CEO.

这段时间一直没啥动静，但产品确实不错。

It's been kinda doing nothing for a while, but the stuff's pretty good.

电话会议是一门艺术，不是科学。

And conference calls are an art, not a science.

我来跟你聊聊怎么读懂这些电话会议。

I'm sharing how you can interpret a call.

希望可可比尔这次能交出一份漂亮的成绩单。

Let's have a good quarter from Columbia Sportswear.

你熟悉的服装品牌可可比尔，还有山浩、索瑞尔、普拉纳这些，都是做户外和运动装备的，我可是铁杆粉丝。

The apparel company you know is Columbia, Mountain Hardware, SOREL, Prana, among other brands, performance fishing, my faith.

以前几年像在荒野里迷了路，但最近几个月股价反弹得特别漂亮。

After spending years lost in the wilderness, I mean, the stocks kind of rebounded very, very nicely over the last few months.

难怪可可比尔这季度业绩这么亮眼。

And you can see why Columbia reported a really good quarter.

每股盈利超预期30美分，营收也高出预期35美分，尽管被关税拖累了310个基点——算是受冲击最严重的之一了——但毛利率只缩水了20个基点。

30¢ earnings beat off 35¢ basis higher than expected revenues, and its gross margin only shrank by 20 basis points year over year despite absorbing a 310 basis point hit from tariffs, one of the hardest hit of all.

不过，管理层还是大幅上调了全年的盈利预期。

Still, management actually raised their full year earnings forecast pretty substantially.

现在的问题是，他们能不能扭转美国市场的局面。

Question now is whether they can turn around their American business.

咱们来听听蒂姆·布瓦尔的说法。

Let's check-in with Tim Boyle.

他是哥伦比亚户外服饰的董事长兼首席执行官。

He's the chairman and CEO of Columbia Sportswear.

听听他对市场的真实看法。

Get a better read on the court.

布瓦尔先生，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Mister Boyle, welcome back to Mad Money.

吉姆，能来这儿真的很高兴。

Jim, it's great to be with you.

谢谢您邀请我

Thanks for including

我们。

us.

当然。

Of course.

蒂姆，我得跟你说件事。

Now, Tim, I gotta tell you this.

在你的电话会议里，你说你们很兴奋，因为品牌又回到了那种不拘一格的风格，还拿保龄球做梗，现在看来真的开始见效了。

In your conference call, you said we're excited that that the return to our irreverent roots is going to bowling and then say it's gonna really start helping things.

我对你们的产品也有同感。

I felt the same way about your stuff.

我觉得现在的产品确实好多了。

I think it's gotten it was very good.

我一直都是你们的顾客，但以前总觉得没意思，也不好玩。

And I you know, I've always been a customer, but it wasn't fun, and it wasn't funny.

现在这种感觉又回来了。

And that's back.

我一眼就能看出来。

And I can tell it immediately.

到底发生了什么，让这一切变了？

What's happened to make this change?

你知道吧，我们最后意识到，咱们得有点不一样。

Well, you know, we sort of recognize that at the end of the day, we talk about we've got to be different.

说实话，咱们的竞争对手都挺一本正经的——他们这么着也情有可原。

And all of our competitors, frankly, take themselves very seriously as probably they should.

但既然我们要不一样，那就得好好聊聊户外有多好玩，咱们聊户外时又能多有趣。

But if we're gonna be different, we needed to talk about how much fun the outdoors is and how much fun we can have talking about the outdoors.

所以我们就搞了那个‘地平线挑战’，跟地平论者说：‘你们要是能证明地球是平的，公司就归你们了。’

So that's why we we had the the, flat earth chat challenge where we told the flat earthers if they could prove that the earth was flat, we'd give them the company.

那可太有意思了。

That was a tremendous amount of fun.

直到今天，我还不断收到邮件，有人想参加这个比赛。

We're I'm still getting emails today, people who wanna enter the contest.

我们还搞了个啤酒发布，趁一月份在加州圣克拉拉举办超级碗的时候搞了个突袭，啤酒里头甚至加了熊粪作为成分之一。

And, you know, we did this beer, launch where we hijacked the big game in Santa Clara, California in January, and and, you know, we made beer with one of the components is bear scat.

我们玩得可开心了，这些事儿都挺带劲的。

And, you know, we we're having a good time with this stuff.

我们还有更多稀奇古怪的点子，这才是我们脱颖而出的方式。

We've got more interesting things happening, and that's how we make ourselves different.

这招真管用，大家特别买账。

It's it's resonating.

说真的，我来跟你讲讲我怎么想的。

Well, you know, I'll I'll tell you how I work.

我买了你们那件特别棒的WaterTight二型夹克。

I bought your that really terrific water type two jacket.

没错。

Okay.

那我为啥要买它呢？

Why did I buy it?

唉，我也不太清楚。

Well, I don't know.

我经常去钓鱼。

I fish a lot.

这看着挺不错的。

This look good.

我认识你们的牌子。

I know your label.

我去过亚马逊。

I went to Amazon.

我本来就想找件刚好合身、又很显眼的，结果就买了。

I wanted I wanted something that exactly fit that and it pops up, but I bought it.

我发现你们家的东西最近出现得越来越多了。

And I just find your stuff's appearing more.

但我真不知道为啥。

I don't know why.

我现在是个钓鱼迷，但就是觉得你们家的东西越来越常见了。

Now I am an angler, but I just see your stuff appearing more.

我觉得是因为你们的东西有股子趣味劲儿，挺有味道的。

And I think it's because there's some whimsy to it, and it matters.

我同意。

I agree.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我们跟钓鱼可有渊源了，尤其是这方面。

We have a big history, especially in fishing.

今年是我们巴哈马衬衫上市三十周年，这可是我们最畅销的产品之一，我们还专门庆祝了一下。

You know, we we this year is the thirtieth anniversary of our Bahama shirt, which is one of our biggest selling items, and we'd celebrated it.

我们把一些经典配色重新挖了出来，效果特别棒。

We brought some new colors back from the depths, and it's been a lot of fun.

说到底，我们做的户外装备就是为了让大家玩得开心，这点得让大家知道。

And and at the end of the day, the outdoor merchandise that we make is for people to have fun, and we need to make sure that people know that.

不过与此同时，咱们得聊聊一些数据。

Now at the same time, and we gotta talk about some numbers.

我们在欧洲的业务简直太棒了。

I the business over in Europe is extraordinary.

我一直都知道你会这么说。

Now I knew you always said that would happen.

一直都很稳，但现在真是惊人。

It's been consistent, but it's really incredible.

在谈美国之前，我想先把这个背景说清楚。

And I wanna put that in context before we go to America.

那边都是谁在买？

Who's doing the buying there?

你是说产品的购买者吗？

Well, the the the buying of the of the product?

对。

Yeah.

主要是年轻消费者。

It's it's generally a generally a younger consumer.

我们在法国的市场最大。

Our biggest market there is France.

第二大市场是英国。

Our second biggest market is The UK.

按理说德国应该是最大的，但我们在整个欧洲的生意都做得特别好，因为我们跟一般的欧洲户外品牌不一样，做法也更特别，所以增长得很不错。

It probably should be Germany, frankly, but we do we're doing great business across Europe, and it's again because we're different, we treat it a little bit differently than the typical European outdoor brands, and it's grown nicely.

那边的机会多得多了。

We've got way more opportunity there.

那边比美国冷多了。

You know, it's it's colder than in The US.

欧洲人住得更靠北，而且平时出门走路也比美国人多得多。

People live more north than in The US, and frankly, they walk in their outdoors way more than The US.

所以按各种标准来看，欧洲都应该是我们最大的市场。

So it should be really our biggest market by by many measures.

我知道你对美国市场不太满意。

Now I I know you're unhappy with The US.

那你打算怎么扭转局面？

What are you gonna do to make it so it turns?

我们得真正重视在美国的业务。

Well, we have to really focus on our business in The US.

我的意思是，我们在美国的业务规模其实不小。

I mean, we've got a substantial business here.

目前美国这边批发占比更高，DTC相对弱，我们得加大投入才行。

It's it's more heavily weighted to wholesale than it is to our DTC, and we just need to lean into it much more.

美国的渠道整合比欧洲厉害多了，虽然欧洲现在也开始出现类似趋势。

There's there's been a lot of consolidation in The US, way more than in Europe, although we see that happening in Europe as well.

关键还是得把对的产品、对的重点放在美国市场上。

But we just need to get the right product and the right emphasis on what we're doing in The US.

我们正在和一个特别有意思的人合作。

And one of the things we're doing is we're we're teaming up with a guy who's fun.

他照片就挂在我身后。

My his picture is behind me.

就是那个《与星共舞》的大明星、冠军得主艾文先生，特别热爱户外活动。

Mister Irwin, who's big time Dancing with the Stars, winner, and he's he's an outdoors person.

他妈妈其实是俄勒冈人。

He actually his mother's from Oregon.

我们跟他认识很久了，这次打算合作，让品牌显得更亲民、更容易接近。

So we've known him for a long time, and we're going to work together to make the brand more accessible and more approachable.

我们还特别重视女装，尤其是外套——今年秋季的‘Amaze’系列大卖，现在正准备把这股势头延续到春季。

We're also doing we have a heavy emphasis on women's apparel, especially outerwear, where we've had a real success with our amaze garments for fall, and we're extending that into into spring.

还有件事吸引我注意，就是那个Drive Thru Tuga靴子，我这会儿就带着呢。

Well, another thing that caught my eye, that is sure the drive thru Tuga boot, I've got it with me.

我钓鱼的时候，特别喜欢去那种可能突然来暴风雨的地方，比如在船上。

You know, my I like when I fish on a when I fish in a place where I know there could be a quick storm on a boat.

今年我还在委内瑞拉钓过鱼。

I fished off in Venezuela this year.

我那时候穿错了鞋。

I had the wrong kind of shoe.

我该穿这双才对。

I should have had this.

这鞋肯定卖得特别火。

This has got to be selling incredibly well.

简直太棒了。

It's re it it's been fabulous.

你知道的。

You know?

这种靴子其实早就有了，但我们加了自己的黑科技。

And that that kind of boots been around for a while, but we put our own technologies in it.

这双靴子用的是OmniMax缓震系统，穿起来特别舒服，大家都认出来了，卖得特别快。

The OmniMax footwear cushioning system is in that, and that's a really comfortable boot, and people are recognizing it, and it's been selling like hotcakes.

最后我想问一下，关税那事儿——你们被关税坑得挺惨吧？毕竟你们的产品这么特殊，估计比别人受影响更大。

So the last thing I have to ask is that the tariff money I mean, you guys got really banged by tariff, probably more than most just because of the specialty way that you make things.

我们今年会把这部分完全算进年度数据，接下来的对比基数会轻松很多。

We're gonna annualize it's gonna be annualizing some pretty easy compare soon.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我们能把这笔钱拿回来——我们希望政府能把钱退给我们，估计大概八千万美元，这是美国政府欠我们的——其中一小部分会返还给那些在我们最困难时帮过我们的供应商，毕竟关税来得毫无预兆，打乱了我们的定价。

So, well, if we get the money back, and we're hoping that the government gives us our money back, it's around $80,000,000, we think, we're due from the US government, And we have a and a a portion of that, smaller portion will go back to our vendors who gave us some help when we needed help because the pricing and the and the the tariffs came out of nowhere.

不过我们还是会用一套自己一贯的资金分配方式，综合考虑怎么处理这笔现金。

But we'll use sort of a a number of different things, including sort of our own historical capital allocation format to decide what to do with that cash.

这笔钱能帮我们继续保持坚如磐石的资产负债表。

But it'll help us continue to have a fortress balance sheet.

对。

Right.

话说回来。

Well, look.

你们之前还回购了不少股票呢。

You you know, bought back a lot of too.

我觉得现在正是个好时机。

This is a I think this is a good time.

我特别喜欢那种轻松有趣的感觉。

I love the whimsical.

这真的很重要。

It really matters.

我想要好玩、有幽默感的东西，因为技术这块我已经有了。

I want the fun and the funny because I know I already have the technology.

技术绝对不能妥协。

You never ever compromise the technology.

这是哥伦比亚运动服装公司的董事长兼首席执行官蒂姆·布洛伊。

That's Tim Boyle, chairman, CEO of Columbia Sportswear.

去看看新品吧。

Check out the new lines.

这些新品真的很让人兴奋。

The lines are quite exciting.

谢谢，蒂姆。

Thank you, Tim.

谢谢，吉姆。

Thanks, Jim.

广告回来后，《疯狂金钱》继续。

Mad Money is back after the break.

接下来，大家有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克雷默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

准备好迎接接下来的快节奏闪电问答吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

我先从牛仔品牌的吉姆开始。

I'm gonna start with Jim in Cowboy.

吉姆。

Jim.

说吧，

Go ahead,

吉姆。

Jim.

我挺好的，吉姆。

I'm good, Jim.

你最近怎么样？

How are you doing?

不错。

Good.

我是第二次打电话来的，俱乐部会员，还读过你的书《在任何市场赚钱》。

I'm second time caller, club member, and I read your book, make money in Any Market.

太棒了！

Oh, it's so great.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的

Yeah.

我按照你的建议做了。

I followed your guidelines.

我的投资组合已经分散了，表现不错。

I got my portfolio diversified, it's doing well.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

行吧。

Alright.

这正是我们想要的。

That's what we want.

你给我带来了什么？

What do you got for me?

我确实留了一点仓位给几只投机性股票，而且我挺看好物理A这家公司的。

I did make some space for a few speculative stocks and I like the physical A.

我。

I.

我之前关注过这家公司一次。

I have been following this company one time.

这家公司眼看就要商业化了，你觉得Aurora Innovations怎么样？

And while the company is on the precipice of going commercial as of today what do you think of Aurora Innovations.

你知道吗，行吧，我就说一下。

You know, okay, I'm going to do this.

我觉得这确实是个值得赌一把的标的。

I'm going to say that that's a worthy spec.

我知道那是匹兹堡那帮人。

I know that's the Pittsburgh guys.

说实话，那些真正聪明的人我不确定他们啥时候能赚钱，但我还是站你这边，毕竟这投机的劲儿我喜欢。

I think that the real smart guys, I'm not sure when they can ever make any money, but I'm going to go with you because I like the spec nature of it.

我觉得这事儿有戏。

I think it's got something going for it.

现在咱们转向加州的格雷戈里。

Now I'm going to Gregory in California.

格雷戈里，老兄，最近咋样？

Gregory, how you doing, buddy?

我挺好的，吉姆。

I'm good, Jim.

这周真是累坏了。

It's been a long week.

周五了，我太想来杯冰镇帕科了。

It's Friday, and I'm ready for a glass of panko over ice.

天哪。

Oh my god.

来试试咱们新出的龙舌兰吧，老兄。

Try our new tequila man.

你绝对想不到。

You won't believe it.

而且我们的新龙舌兰酒这周就上市了。

Plus forward tequila comes out this week.

别喝了。

Stop drinking.

来，直接干了这杯。

Just pound me in here.

各位，别闹了。

Guys come on.

那头熊

The bear of

好消息啊，吉姆。

good news Jim.

你准备好了。

You are ready.

我确实努力了。

I sure try.

咋了？

What's up.

这事儿吧。

The story.

来聊聊财报季这出闹剧。

Here's the story silliness of the earnings season.

这家公司的各项业绩都远超预期。

This company had a solid beat across the board.

根本供不应求。

They can't keep up with the demand.

股价涨了12%。

The stock counts 12%.

杰夫，有个问题。

Question, Jeff.

我现在不太可能对RTX做短线操作。

I'm not easily to take a swing trade on RTX right here.

哦，我懂了。

Oh, I got it.

我的意思是，RTX跌得可真够狠的。

Well, I mean, hey, RTX is down very big.

格雷戈里这次又是六投六中。

Gregory once again I think Gregory is like six for six.

RTX现在势头太猛了，我可不敢追着买。

RTX is a monster right here and I don't buy it aggressively.

它跌得太多了。

It's down a lot.

这完全说不通。

It makes no sense.

是因为飞机维修能力跟不上了，大家觉得以后没人坐飞机了。

It's because there's not enough air aircraft servicing because people feel that people aren't gonna fly anymore.

不对。

Wrong.

我们连线一下佐治亚州的鲍比，鲍比，请说。

Let's go to Bobby in Georgia, please, Bobby.

克莱默先生，我想从头到尾感谢您这些年来如此热情又精彩的分享。

Mister Cramer, I wanna from one to another, I wanna thank you for being such a passionate and wonderful feature over the years.

哎。

Hey.

谢谢老兄。

Thanks, man.

听了真让人开心。

That makes you feel good.

我想了解一下Ampris科技公司，股票代码是AMPX。

I want to know about Ampris Technologies, ticker symbol AMPX.

你知道吧？

You know?

好的。

Okay.

这是另一个规格。

This is this is another spec.

这是个存储规格，非常合理。

It's a storage spec, and it's got it makes a lot of sense.

再说一遍，这两个规格我都认可。

Once again, two specs that I'm willing to go with.

这个会放在组合五里，买过书和正在买书的人都知道。

You'll have that one set in portfolio five so everybody who bought the book and buys the book knows.

各位，这就是本次的最后内容了。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the

本轮结束。

The Round.

闪电轮由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，电话会议常常自成一套话术，而克莱默实在忍不了了。

Coming up, conference calls often adopt a language of their own, and Cramer's had enough.

他接下来要直接对所有高管们说说心里话。

He's letting all the executives out there hear it from him next.

电话会议是一门艺术，不是科学。

Conference calls are an art, not a science.

如果你业绩亮眼，就得让人明白为啥亮眼。

If you have a great quarter, you need to tell people why it's a great quarter.

你得大声嚷出来，因为一旦业绩差，你非得穿上那件‘毛衣’不可——至少该穿。

You have to shout it from the rooftops because when you have a bad quarter, you're gonna have to wear the darn hair suit, or at least should.

我觉得很多CEO和CFO开电话会时，犯了个大错。

I think that many CEOs and CFOs, who run these calls are making a big mistake.

他们整个会议只顾着讨好那几个分析师，好让分析师去给大客户分析公司未来能赚多少钱。

Their entire calls are meant just for a handful of analysts who are trying to work on their financial models so they can tell big accounts what they think the company can earn in the future.

结果呢？会议搞得平淡无奇。

As a result, the calls are anodyne.

我觉得美国现在正在发生变化。

I think that things are changing in America.

个股正在重新崛起，这完全说得通。

Individual stocks are making a comeback, and that makes so much sense.

有好多股票表现得太惊艳了，你要是不拿它们当榜样，那才真是傻了。

There are a host of stocks that have given you such fantastic performance that it's nuts not to take your inspiration from them.

看看我们平时关注的那些股票过去一年的回报吧，待会儿在节目里你们就能看到。

Consider the one year returns of of stocks that we watch March higher and we'll see here on the network.

西部数据涨了882%。

Western Digital up 882%.

希捷涨了708%，美光涨了597%，英特尔涨了303399%，桑德斯涨了3542%。

Seagate up 708%, Micron up 597%, Intel up 303399%, Sanders up 3542%.

同期标普500指数才涨了29%。

The S and P five hundred during that period up 29%.

按历史标准来看，29%的涨幅已经算非常厉害了。

That's a tremendous run by historical standards, 29%.

但跟这些个股比起来，那简直不值一提。

But compared to those individual stocks, it's nothing.

你本可以赚钱，甚至发财的。

You could have made money or you could have you could have gotten rich.

我觉得，投资的时候至少该把‘发财’这个选项考虑进去。

I would say the latter should at least be on the table when you invest.

为什么不呢？

Why not?

干嘛要满足于平平无奇？

Why settle for mediocrity?

这种回报不是梦，你也能拿到。

These kinds of returns can be had, but had by you.

你只需要挑对那么一两只股票就行。

You just need to own a couple of stocks.

我写过一本书，手把手教你怎么在任何市场里赚钱。

Look, I've written a whole book teaching you how to do it, how to make money in any market.

这可不是那种忽悠人的书。

It's it's not a shyster book.

这是一本干货满满的书。

It's a heavyweight book.

等你看到关于资产负债表的部分，你就明白了，真不是吹的。

When you get to the part about believe me about balance sheet, you'll know.

现在还只买指数基金，真没借口了。

There are no excuses for just owning an index fund anymore.

你两个都可以做。

You can own both.

书里我手把手教你怎么听公司电话会议。

In the book, I show you how to read a conference call.

我非得带你过一遍，因为这些会议真的太难懂了。

I I had to give you that walk through because I think these calls are impenetrable.

所以那些主持电话会的高管们，你们给我听好了。

So for the executives who run these calls, listen up.

他们现在得换个做法了，因为如今真有人在听、在看他们的电话会议。

Here's what they need to do instead of what they're currently doing because now they must expect individuals are reading or are listening to their calls.

现在可不只是分析师在听这些会议了。

It's not just the analysts on these calls anymore.

是普通投资者，包括CEO们自己。

It's real people, CEOs.

首先，分析师要做出预测，得掌握大量细节。

First of there are a lot of details that the analysts need to know to come up with the projections.

你还得讲清楚这个季度的故事，并且始终如一。

You also need to have a narrative that explains the quarter and stick by it.

我知道这能做到，因为奈飞已经做到了。

I know this can be done because Netflix has done it.

可能说得会有点零散。

It'll be in a bit of a scattershot way.

其次，就像我开头说的，你得谈的不只是公司本身，还有你的股价。

Second, as I said at the top, you need to address not just your company, but your stock.

现在不管股价是跌了一半、四分之三，还是没动，CEO们还是都说一切顺利。

Right now, whether stocks been cut in half or three quarters or just unchanged, CEOs still say everything's rosy.

这根本就是不公平。

That's just plain unfair.

股价跌了，你就得认。

If your stock's down, own it.

要是跌得厉害，赶紧直面问题。

If it's down big, address your fall immediately.

你必须这么做。

You have to.

你可以解释为什么股价被误判了，但你得承认现实。

You can explain why the stock's wrong, but you have to address the reality of the situation.

别装作股价没跌。

Don't pretend that it's not down.

只要你诚实，信誉立马飙升，还会吸引一大群散户投资者，他们真会跟你共渡难关。

Your credibility will go through the roof, and you'll actually attract a flock of retail buyers who'll stick with you through thick and thin if you're honest.

第三，别以为我们对每个表现好坏的部门都了如指掌。

Third, stop presuming we know everything about all the different divisions that are doing well poorly.

别动不动就用缩写。

Don't default to abbreviations.

这确实不容易。

That's hard.

直接告诉我们哪个部门表现好，好在哪里。

Tell us whether a department is doing well and why.

也说说哪些地方拖了后腿。

Tell us what's lagging.

这很重要。

It's important.

第四，大家要注意，背景信息很关键。

Fourth, context matters, people.

把你现在的业绩跟以前的比一比。

Compare your work to past work.

我们需要知道你们的业务是不是真正在进步。

We need to know if your business is actually making progress.

最后，给自己打个分。

Finally, grade yourself.

CEOs，给自己打个分吧。

Grade yourself, CEOs.

打分要狠一点，别手下留情。

Grade yourself hard.

我知道有些公司总觉得自己每个季度都拿了A。

I know some companies talk like they've earned an a every quarter.

那根本没意义。

Well, that's worthless.

别想糊弄我们。

Don't try to fool us.

如果你第二季度业绩下滑、股价也跌了，就耐心解释清楚原因——要么说服我们股价是错的，要么让我们相信公司内部会有实质性的改变。

If your business slipped in q two and the stock's down, just patiently explain why that is and either convince us why the stock is wrong or why we can expect something to change at the underlying company.

相信我，大家会欣赏你的坦诚。

Believe me, people will appreciate your candor.

你的股票会被人知道，不只是机构在买，我们的观众也在买。

Your stock will be known as one that caters not just to institutions, but to our viewers.

我们的观众，可是全美国最懂股票的投资者。

And our viewers are the smartest stock owners in the land.

我每次聊到市场夏天，都会这么说。

I like to say this always about Market Summer.

我保证，就在这档《疯狂金钱》节目里，帮你找到它。

I promise to find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

周一西雅图见。

See you Monday from Seattle.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点，均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司、关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾在他之前的电视、广播、网络或其他媒体上发表过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.