本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓女性，改变规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我其中一个
One of my
关于最推荐的建议，想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力的表现形式多种多样。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是信任你自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，而且
Life is short, and
想做成大事，就得敢想大目标。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期节目，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
我的目标很简单：帮你赚钱。
My mission is simple, to make you money.
我要为所有投资者创造公平的机会。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
《疯狂金钱》现在开始。
Mad Money starts now.
你好。
Hey.
我是克莱默。
I'm Cramer.
欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Welcome to Mad Money.
欢迎来到克莱默的节目。
Welcome to Cramer.
人们想交朋友？
People wanna make friends?
我这儿就是想帮你们赚点钱。
I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money here.
我的职责不只是逗乐你们，还要让你们学到东西，随时给我打电话。
My job, not just to entertain, but also to educate you, so call me.
180743。
180743.
在推特上关注我，账号是Jim Cramer。
Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
这几年科技的变化真是让人难以置信。
It's incredible how much tech has changed in the last few years.
以前的企业软件简直无可匹敌。
Old days, enterprise software was unbeatable.
软件能帮你更好地销售、计算数据、预测趋势，甚至管理人力资源和IT系统。
Software help you sell things better, calculate things, forecast things, even organize human resources, IT.
它的初衷就是改变我们的工作方式，而它确实做到了。
The whole point of it was to disrupt how we did work, and it sure did.
不仅帮公司省钱，还让投资者赚得盆满钵满。
Saving companies money while making investors fortunes in the process.
企业软件曾是科技领域的王者。
Enterprise software was the king of tech.
那时候，钱都集中在这里。
It was where the money was.
但时代变了。
But times change.
传统的企业软件正面临来自AI驱动的低成本自研产品的激烈竞争。
Traditional enterprise software is facing new competition from the much cheaper products you can develop yourself from AI.
曾经以高增长和丰厚毛利著称的企业软件板块，如今增长速度远不及半导体、硬件等支撑人工智能革命的实体技术领域。
And the enterprise software cohort once prized for its high growth and lucrative gross margins is now growing much more slowly than the physical side of tech, semiconductors, hardware, the tools that allow for the artificial intelligence revolution.
我并没有忽视其他重大议题——战争、油价、利率，还有消费者状况。
Listen, I haven't lost focus on other large issues, the war, oil, the price of money, also known as interest rates, or the health of the consumer.
这些因素都直接影响市场平均表现，比如今天道指飙升了645点，标普涨了1.08%，而纳斯达克只微涨了1.55%。
These are integral to the to the all the averages, with the Dow surging 645 points today, S and P jumping one point o 8%, and then Nasdaq cold holding 1.55%.
如果传闻中与伊朗的战争真的能结束——尽管我实在想不通这怎么可能发生——那眼下这场硬件与软件的较量，可能就只是个插曲。
If the war with the ram were to end as is rumored, although I honestly can't figure out how that would happen, then you could argue this hardware versus software dynamic is really a sideshow.
那时利率会暴跌，消费者担忧也会减轻，美联储甚至可能开始讨论降息。
We'd see interest rates plummet, worries about the consumer would wane, the Fed might even start talking about cutting rates.
我们会转而买入医疗、零售和运输类股票，完全不同的另一批标的，但现实并非如此。
We'd be buying health care and retailers and transports a whole other group of stocks, but it hasn't.
只要伊朗还在封锁霍尔木兹海峡，或者说，只要我们这边还处于这种状态，那这一切就都不可能改变。
See, as long as the Iranians are shutting down the Strait Of Rimuz, or you can say we are on the other end, that that that's off the table.
相反，我们还是不断回到那些真正奏效的东西上，而奏效的正是那些支撑数据中心和即将上市的AI巨头——比如OpenAI和Anthropic——的硬件股票。
Instead, we keep coming back to what's working, and what's working are the hardware stocks that power the data center and the soon to be public artificial intelligence titans like OpenAI and Anthropic.
今晚，Anthropic看起来会因为第二季度的惊人表现而获得巨额利润，这也凸显了谷歌、亚马逊、Meta，以及微软旗下AI业务的重要性——不是整个微软，只是它的AI板块。
Tonight, Anthropic looks like they're gonna be wildly profitable because of a huge second quarter, setting up the importance of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, as well as the AI portion of Microsoft, not all Microsoft, just the AI portion.
我们聊的还是硬件。
And we talk hardware.
这其中最大的部分，就是今晚刚刚公布财报的这家公司。
The biggest part of that is the company just reported tonight.
它现在似乎怎么都摆脱不了自己的困境，这家公司就是英伟达。
It seems to not be able to get out of its own way right now, which is NVIDIA.
自从英伟达股价还在拆分后不到4美元的时候，我就一直在大力推荐它。
I've been pounding the table on NVIDIA since it was trading at a split adjusted price of just under $4.
我从没掩饰过对这家公司以及黄仁勋领导的团队的信心。
I've never hidden my belief in the company and its team led by Jensen Huang.
英伟达今晚公布的财报再次交出了一份稳健的业绩。
NVIDIA just reported to close, delivered another steady set of numbers.
营收同比增长85%，达到816亿美元，超出预期近30亿美元。
Revenue growing 85% year over year, 81,600,000,000, beating expectations by nearly $3,000,000,000.
大部分增长来自公司的核心数据中心业务，超大规模客户收入同比飙升115%，环比也持续上升；而AI云、工业和企业收入同比增长74%。
Most of the growth came from the company's core data center business with hyperscale revenues up a 115% versus the prior year and up sequentially, while AI clouds, industrial, and enterprise revenue grew 74% from the prior year.
公司的毛利率符合预期。
Companies gross margins were in line.
也许有人对这个不太满意。
Oh, maybe people don't like that.
NVIDIA的净利润超出预期11美分，基准是每股1.76美元。
And NVIDIA had an 11¢ bottom line beat off a dollar 76 basis.
自由现金流比预期高出1001亿美元。
Free cash flow came in 10,000,000,010 billion dollars above expectations.
现在，NVIDIA已经到了找不到地方花掉自己赚来的钱的地步。
Now we're at the point where NVIDIA has to look hard for places to put all of its money it's making.
每周，这家公司都在出手投资，收购小型元器件厂商、新兴超大规模云服务商，甚至可能是光通信领域的公司，金额都是几十亿美元级别。
Every week, the company seems to be making multibillion dollar stakes in taking stakes in small component players, new hyperscaler, perhaps optical.
但在本季度回购了近两千亿美元股票后，英伟达又宣布了新的八千亿美元股票回购计划，而此前的授权额度还剩将近四千亿美元未用完。
But after buying back nearly $20,000,000,000 of stock in the current quarter, NVIDIA announced a new $80,000,000,000 share repurchase program, even as close to $40,000,000,000 remaining on its previous authorization.
非常看涨。
Very bullish.
公司对本季度的前景展望也很乐观。
Company's outlook for the current quarter looked good too.
英伟达预计本季度营收将达到九千一百亿美元，比市场预期的八千七百亿美元高出约四百亿美元，尽管公司仍假设来自中国的数据中心计算收入为零。
NVIDIA's guiding for 91,000,000,000 in revenue this this quarter, roughly 4,000,000,000 above the expect expectations that were 87,000,000,000, despite the fact that the company's still assuming no data center compute revenue from China.
就在三年前的2023年5月，英伟达曾以超出预期约四十亿美元的业绩指引，让华尔街大吃一惊。
It was almost exactly three years ago in May 2023 that Nvidia Nvidia shocked Wall Street with roughly $4,000,000,000 of upside in its guide for the quarter ahead.
那次公告直接推高了股价，之后就一路高歌猛进，再没回落过。
That caused a huge gap up for the stock, which never really looked back after that.
但如今股价已累计上涨超过六倍，公司想再让投资者惊喜就难多了。
But now with the stock up over 600% since then, it's tougher for the company to surprise investors.
规模实在太大了。
It's gotten so big.
盘后交易中股价基本持平，我觉得这更多是因为想买英伟达的人早就买了，而不是因为财报本身有什么问题。
The stocks basically flattened after hours trading, which I think is more of a reflection on how everyone who wants NVIDIA already owns NVIDIA than anything qualitative about the company's earnings.
当你市值已经超过五万亿美元的时候，再想大幅增长确实很难。
It's hard to get bigger when you're so huge at north of $5,000,000,000,000.
如果你对这些内容还有疑问，今晚我为CNBC投资俱乐部的会员准备了更详细的英伟达分析。
If you're confused about any of this, I've got some terrific Nvidia coverage tonight for subscribers to the CNBC investing club.
我们会做比这里深入得多的全面解读。
We'll do some much more deep coverage than I can do here.
现在加入的话，首月只需4美元。
You can join at a special rate of just $4 for your first month.
是的。
Yeah.
4美元。
$4.
去cnbc.com/kramerclub注册吧。
Go to cnbc.com/kramerclub to sign up.
你肯定明白，换谁都会这么想。
Tell me you're I don't know why you wouldn't.
好吧。
Alright.
不过咱们得把英伟达放在大背景下看。
Let's put NVIDIA, in context though.
英伟达或者它的对手造芯片需要很多东西，但真不需要那种过去市场特别追捧的昂贵软件。
You need a lot of things for NVIDIA or its rivals to make chips, but what you don't need is big time expensive software that this market used to love.
不用。
No.
人工智能不会让软件公司倒闭。
AI won't put software companies out of business.
这事儿根本不可能发生。
It's not gonna happen.
他们不可能做到让人再也不用 Adobe 做设计，或者不用 Salesforce 做销售。
They aren't gonna make it so nobody uses Adobe for creativity or Salesforce or sales.
但人工智能确实威胁到了它们的主导地位。
But AI does threaten their primacy.
它们的垄断地位。
Their supremacy.
AI通过让Anthropic这类公司证明，企业几乎可以从零开始构建功能相似的工具，从而终结了这些公司抬价的能力，让它们的利润大打折扣。
It makes them less lucrative by putting an end to their pricing power because anthropic and its compadres make a very convincing case that you can help companies code something very similar practically out of whole cloth.
这其实算不上真正的编程，因为你只是在提问而已。
Customer it's not real coding either because you're just asking stuff.
多年来，客户一直被这些公司不断涨价。
Customers have been asked for years about endless price increases from these kinds of companies.
但之前替代方案很少，自己开发又太贵。
However, there weren't a lot of alternatives and internal coding was too expensive.
现在你可以用更便宜、甚至量身定制的方案，效果还更好。
Now you can have something cheaper and often tailor made for you, so it's better.
不过，这种变化的速度让不少投资经理措手不及。
Now the pace of the change though caught a lot of portfolio managers by surprise.
我们几十年来一直习惯于同样的科技公司领跑行业。
We got used to the same tech companies leading the way for decades.
很长一段时间里，微软是世界上最重要、最大、最成功的公司。
For a long time, Microsoft was the most important company in the world, the largest, best ever.
这有什么奇怪的呢？
Why not?
微软靠的是软件，不是硬件。
Microsoft software, not hardware.
几十年来，软件一直主宰着这个世界。
And for decades, software ruled the world.
没错。
Sure.
苹果之所以重要，是因为iPhone，但真正带来增长的是App Store，那全是软件。
Apple mattered because of the iPhone, but the App Store gave you the growth, and that's all software.
多年来，市场一直青睐那种向企业出售专有软件并赚取巨额利润的模式。
For years, the market came to love the model of a company that sold proprietary software to the enterprise for fortunes.
每年价格都稍微涨一点，这些公司的毛利高得惊人，因为做软件不需要昂贵的原材料或重型设备。
With the price going up a little bit every single year, these companies had gigantic gross margins because you don't need expensive materials or heavy equipment to create software.
像半导体这种东西，才需要这样的重资产投入。
That's the kind of baggage you need to make, say, semiconductors.
软件的主导地位由来已久。
The primacy of software goes back to a long way.
1986年，微软上市了。
Eighty six, nineteen eighty six, Microsoft came public.
那高盛呢？
What about Goldman Sachs?
股价一路飙升，从此再没回头过。
The stock went to a premium and never looked back.
我以前老听人说，一家只写代码的公司，居然比通用电气、埃克森或者通用汽车这些造实体产品的巨头还值钱，简直荒唐。
I remember for a long time, people thought it was ridiculous that some company that made code, whatever that was, could be worth more than the tangible products from GE or Exxon or General Motors.
错了。
Wrong.
我真没法形容，十二年后微软成为全球市值最大的公司时，人们有多震惊。
I can't tell you how incredulous people were when twelve year twelve years later, twelve years, Microsoft became the largest company on earth.
写代码这件事本身就够让人费解了，更别说当时个人电脑还这么新，微软的软件几乎全靠它运行。
Software coding, it was hard enough to get your head around a personal computer where so much of Microsoft software lived.
更讽刺的是，作为PC搭档的英特尔，居然从来没超过微软的市值。
But far more ironic, the fact that Intel, the companion to Microsoft inside the PC, was never worth more than Microsoft.
尽管英特尔在芯片上不断突破，做出越来越小却越来越强的处理器，它的估值却一直远远落后于微软。
It often trailed its partner of dramatically in valuation despite the huge engineering feats that Intel accomplished with its ever smaller yet more powerful chips.
微软靠卖Windows赚得盆满钵满，每多卖一份软件，几乎不用额外成本。
Microsoft produced Windows by the hundreds of millions with gigantic gross margins it costs next to nothing to produce that additional piece of software.
但WinTel组合里，芯片制造成本高得吓人，根本没法像软件那样轻松放大利润。
But the tell in WinTel, chips cost fortunes to make, so it's hard to get levered.
也许这就是为什么现在这么多基金经理还是难以接受英伟达成了全球市值第一。
Maybe that's why so many money managers are still at odds with NVIDIA now being the largest company on earth.
这让他们很不安，毕竟我们已经看到过太多类似的情况了。
It's trouble troubling to them because of what we've seen for so many years.
这是因为英伟达和它的合作伙伴，比如AMD、ARM控股、英特尔Procom等等，才是推动人工智能的核心力量。
It's happening because NVIDIA and its compadres say AMD, ARM Holdings, Intel Procom, among so many others, are what powers AI.
而有了人工智能，软件本身就没那么强大，也没那么关键了。
And with AI, software just isn't as powerful or as important.
英伟达本身就已经自带了一整套软件系统。
NVIDIA comes loaded with its own software anyway.
当它和Anthropic或OpenAI结合时，就能打造出跟传统高价软件供应商非常相似的产品。
When it's combined with Anthropic or OpenAI, it can actually create products very similar to the traditional expensive software vendors.
顺便说一句，这正是Anthropic和OpenAI能排进CNBC颠覆者50强前两名的原因。
Incidentally, that's why Anthropic and OpenAI are numbers one and two in the CNBC disruptor 50 list.
它们通过降低软件对企业客户的重要性，正在颠覆传统软件行业。
They're disrupting traditional software by lowering the importance of its to corporate buyers.
把英伟达的硬件和Anthropic或OpenAI结合起来，就能轻松做出跟昂贵企业级软件不相上下的应用。
You combine NVIDIA hardware with Anthropic or OpenAI, and you can easily create applications that are in the same league as pricey enterprise software.
所以现在人人都对传统企业软件股感到恐慌，尤其是那些已经私有化、或者背负沉重债务、处境艰难的公司。
That's why everyone seems so scared of traditional enterprise software stocks, especially the ones that have been taken private or now running to so much trouble with their big debt loads.
或者看看我们今晚提到的Intuit，这是一家非常优秀的企业。
Or look, even a great company like we have tonight with Intuit.
OpenAI和Anthropic的负责人大力宣传，说他们的技术能帮你想象出比市面上现有软件更出色的新产品。
The people who run OpenAI and Anthropic are incredibly promotional about how their wearers can help you imagine new software products that are better than what you could buy.
没错。
Yeah.
不是现成就能用的。
Right off the shelf, no.
你得找这些人合作。
You want these guys.
这都不重要。
Doesn't matter.
他们已经把恐惧深深植入了企业运营的根基。
They're sewn fear into the very fabric of the enterprise.
顺便说一句，这对主街和华尔街来说，都是他们最大的卖点之一。
It's one of their biggest selling points, by the way, to Main Street and Wall Street.
他们公司的高管正在想，是不是该为企业的软件支付更高的费用，毕竟这东西太贵了。
They've got executives asking themselves if they need to pay a lot more for exec for enterprise software, which is so expensive.
如果人工智能能让公司裁掉一大批员工，那按人头收费还合理吗？
Charges per user when AI may let them lay off a bunch of those users.
也许他们直接用带硬件的AI代理，就能取代几百个人的工作。
Maybe they can just create AI agents with hardware that can replace the work of hundreds of people.
听起来挺有道理的。
Seems logical.
这些问题正在让权力向半导体领域转移。
These are the questions that are shifting power to the semiconductor cohort.
周一我采访了英特尔的CEO李·布·谭，你去听听吧。
Go listen to my interview with Lip Bu Tan, the CEO of Intel on Monday.
他一直是最支持半导体初创公司的投资人，认为半导体里的知识产权远比人们想象的值钱。
He's long been the biggest backer of semiconductor startups, arguing that the intellectual property in semis is worth much more than people realize.
这真是一个新时代的开始。
It is a new era of people.
现在主导的是半导体行业。
Semis are now in charge.
软件已经退居二线了。
Software is taking a back seat.
最大的公司是英伟达，因为它彻底改变了世界，尤其是通过人工智能和加速计算重塑了软件领域。
The biggest company is NVIDIA because it's changed the world, especially the software world with artificial intelligence and accelerated computing.
那些专门为英伟达打造的公司正在颠覆微软主导的旧格局，还包括众多其他企业，但几乎没人愿意承认自己遇到了麻烦。
Those companies that seem purpose built for NVIDIA are disrupting the old world led by Microsoft, but including so many others, almost none of which will admit they're in trouble.
我的意思是，不会的。
I mean, no.
说白了就是这么回事。
Here's the bottom line.
世界已经变了。
The world has changed.
形势在不断流动，但我们回不去了。
It's fluid, but we're not going back to the way things were.
现在不会，以后也永远不会。
Not now, not ever.
请连线加利福尼亚的格雷戈里。
Let's go to Gregory in California, please.
格雷戈里。
Gregory.
吉姆，吉姆，作为家长，我想听听你的建议。
Jim, Jim, as a parent, I need your advice here
因为当然。
because Sure.
什么
What's
情况？
up?
我有个特别调皮的孩子，叫阿斯特拉。
I have a naughty, naughty kid called Astera.
她才十岁左右，两年前就公开亮相了。
She she's barely 10 years old, and she went public two years ago.
我得给你点赞，就在他们发布IPA之后，你就让我们放心投资这个AI基础设施项目。
And now I have to give you credit because you gave us the green light on this AI infrastructure play right after their IPA.
后来股价跌到40美元时，我全仓买入，等涨了一倍就卖了一半。
Now when it pulled back to $40, I bought a full position and then sold half when it doubled.
所以现在用的是赢来的钱在操作，我心里踏实。
So I'm playing with the house's money, so I feel
格雷戈里，你完全不用担心。
Gregory, we have nothing to worry about.
你用的是公司的钱在投资。
You're playing with the house's money.
你根本不可能亏钱。
You can never lose money.
你反而能赚一大笔。
You can make a lot of money.
我说你别动，好好享受吧。
I say you hold on, be very happy.
对。
Yes.
你一直是我见过的最聪明的观众之一，甚至可能是最聪明的，这件事你做得太到位了。
Always, you're one of my smartest, if not smartest of our incredibly smart cohort of viewers, and you've done this thing very right.
我说你就拿着剩下的这部分别动。
I say you stand pat with what's left.
我们俱乐部也是这么做的。
That's what we're trying to do with the club.
这确实很难，但只要我们及时撤出，就能赢。
It's so hard, but we take out our money, we win.
这是个全新的世界。
It's a new world.
现在是半导体主导市场，就算英伟达今晚没什么动静，软件也得靠边站。
Semis are in charge of this market, and software's taking a back seat even if NVIDIA is not doing anything tonight.
咱们能不能换个更长远的角度来看待这个问题？
Can we take a little longer term view, please?
就在下周一晚上，BF Corpus 正在经历重大转型，我刚和首席执行官做了一次财报后的独家专访。
Only on Monday tonight, BF Corpus is undergoing a major turnaround, and I'm checking with the CEO in a post earnings exclusive.
接着，Databricks 在 CBC 的颠覆性企业50强榜单中位列第三，我将与他们的首席执行官深入聊聊这家AI数据公司未来的发展方向。
Then Databricks came in third in CBC's disrupt 50 list, and I'm sitting down with the CEO to find out more about the path forward for this AI data company.
报税季已经过去，Intuit 在华尔街的表现现在怎么样？
And with tax season in the rearview mirror, how is Intuit very on Wall Street?
千万别错过我对他们首席执行官的独家专访。
Do not miss my exclusive with the CEO.
史蒂夫·克雷默。
Steve Cramer.
千万别错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一秒钟。
Don't miss a second of mad money.
在 X 上关注吉姆·克雷默。
Follow at Jim Cramer on x.
有问题吗？
Have a question?
给克雷默发推文。
Tweet Cramer.
标签#madmentions。
Hashtag mad mentions.
给吉姆发邮件至madmoney@CNBC.com，或者拨打180743联系我们。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
错过什么了？
Missed something?
前往madmoney.cnbc.com查看。
Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开创先河的女性，正在重塑行业格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的上司的上司需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有无数种不同的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，
Life is short, and
要想成就大事，就得有大格局。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期节目，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
好吧。
Alright.
VF公司——就是那个拥有北面、万斯、添柏岚等众多品牌的服装公司——它的股价到底怎么了？
What the heck happened to the stock of v f corp, the apparel company you know as the North Face, Vans, Timberland, among many other brands?
我原本觉得他们这份业绩报告非常出色，盘前股价还大涨，可展望部分却平平无奇，结果股价直接跳水。
This point of the current what I thought was terrific set of results, stock surged in premarket trading, but their outlook was basically in line and the stock got slammed.
收盘时跌了3%。
It finished the day down 3%.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我觉得这可能是个绝佳的买入机会。
I think this could be a fantastic buying opportunity.
今天早些时候，我们有幸采访了VF公司的掌舵人布雷肯·达罗，这位力挽狂澜的总裁兼CEO实在太有智慧了。
Earlier today, we got a chance to speak with Bracken Darrow, the turnaround artist, president, and CEO of VF Corp, who is so darn smart.
来看看他的分享。
Take a look.
好了，布拉肯，咱们先聊聊刚结束的这个季度。
Well, Bracken, let's start with the quarter that just ended.
我觉得这个季度的表现太棒了。
I thought the quarter was magnificent.
你现在真的开始有势头了。
You're really getting some momentum here.
虽然市场还没给反应，但我已经能看到转机了。
Now the street may not be awarding it yet, but I can see the turn.
跟我们说说具体情况吧。
Tell us about it.
我特别兴奋。
Well, I'm super excited.
你知道吗，第三季度我们开始看到品牌在电商上回暖了。
You know, we just we you know, in q three, we we we started to see bands coming back on ecom.
到了第四季度，直营渠道在美洲地区全面增长，全年整体业务也实现了增长。
Q four, it grew in total DTC both in The Americas, and our total business grew for the full year.
第四季度是我们公司三年来增长最强劲的一个季度。
So we had our strongest quarter of growth in three years for the total company in Q4.
我们以强劲势头结束了这一年，三年来首次实现全年增长，明年我们还会继续增长。
So we're finishing strong coming out of the year, had our first full year of growth in three years, and we just to growth again next year.
所以，我真的很兴奋。
So I'm, yeah, I'm super excited.
我觉得我们正告别一个章节——那就是公司整体业绩下滑的时代。
I feel like we're kind of closing one chapter, which was the total company is declining.
现在，我们重新回到了增长轨道。
Now we're back into growth mode.
我们不会再回头了。
We're not gonna look back.
我知道，各个品牌其实都已经在增长了。
And you know, I thought that the brands were in growth mode.
当然，北面和添柏岚表现不错，但我更在意的是，凡士林不再拖后腿了。
Obviously, North Face and Timberland Turbine, but I cared more about the fact that it's no longer vans bringing it down.
是的
Yeah.
我的意思是，我们在美洲的直营渠道，也就是我们重点投入的地方，现在增长势头很强，占了全球业务的40%。
I mean, our our DTC, which is in The Americas, which is where we're focused, cause that's really leading, it's 40% of our global business is growing.
而且这个增长还会继续下去。
So, and it's gonna keep growing.
所以我们对这一点非常有信心。
So we feel really, really good about that.
Vans这边，我们马上要推出一批很棒的产品。
Vans is we've got great products coming out.
吉姆，我刚摘下来给你看，这双鞋，相信每个人看了都想买。
You know, I took this off for you, Jim, so you can see this really, know I everybody's gonna wanna buy that.
但现在还没上架。
It's not available.
不过我后面还有一双，是有的。
But but I've got another one back there that is.
但我们马上要推出一大堆酷炫的产品，真的特别棒。
But we've got so much cool stuff coming, and it's just you know, it's great.
而且热潮已经开始了。
And and the heat has started.
我觉得大家不太了解公司的整体构成。
Well, I think people don't understand the the the kind of makeup of the company.
如果我看耐克户外大举发力，而Vans也不再拖后腿了，那我就有理由看好，虽然现在还不行，因为你比较保守。
Because if I see North Face go big and Vans isn't keeping me down anymore, I got a possibility, not yet because you're conservative.
你说过这次转型会持续很久。
You said the turn's gonna be long.
我觉得增长能到个位数的高位。
I see high single digit.
只要让Vans再加把劲，同时继续推动耐克户外这个大品牌。
If you get Vans a little more momentum and you keep keep going with North Face, which is a big brand.
是的。
Yeah.
我来加注。
I'll I'll I'll I'll raise your bid.
我跟了，再加一注。
I'll take I'll call that and raise it.
我觉得今年肯定不行，但过一两年，可能是明年或者后年，我们能重新回到个位数中高位的增长。
You know, I think it it I it's not gonna be this year, but in one of the years out, maybe it's next year or the year after that, we're gonna get back to high single digit growth.
而且在某个时候，我们甚至会达到两位数的增长。
And we're even at some point it's
因为我们的所有品牌都有很大的增长空间。
gonna touch double digit growth because we've got so much room to grow in all of our brands.
就像你说的，北面从现在开始翻倍都不是问题。
As you said, North Face can double from here.
没错。
Absolutely.
添柏岚也有很强的增长潜力。
Timberland's got strong growth potential.
说实话，我们一直没能在黄靴子之外真正爆发，但现在我们正全力突破这一点。
I mean, we've never really exploded beyond the yellow boot and we're really working hard on that.
就像你说的，Vans 曾经是个四十亿美元的品牌。
As you said, Vans used to be a $4,000,000,000 brand.
现在它回落到了二十亿美元的规模。
Now it went back to a $2,000,000,000 brand.
所以它还有很大的增长空间。
So it's got a lot of room to run above that.
还有 Ultra 这个品牌。
And then you've got Ultra.
你看，Ultra 这个季度增长了百分之四十五。
I mean, we just Ultra just grew 45% this quarter.
百分之四十五。
45%.
现在它才二十多亿美元的规模，但只要几个这样的品牌一起发力，就能做成大生意。
It's only a $270,000,000 business, but you pile up a few of those and you're gonna have a big business.
是的。
Yeah.
我看到了。
I saw that.
我觉得大家对Ultra谈得太少了。
I thought that don't talk enough about Ultra.
但你知道我们还忽略了什么吗？
But you know what else we don't talk about?
世界上有一半的人口，你其实没怎么吸引到。
There's 50% people in the world, right, that you're not really appealing to.
你知道那另一半是谁吗？
You know who those 50% are?
女性。
Women.
你对女性市场做得不够，你最后也提到了这一点。
You're not doing it with women, and you made that point at the end.
没错。
Right.
这让我突然意识到一件事。
And it said to me, wait a second.
只要你能抓住女性市场，那就是一片全新的蓝海。
That we got greenfield coming if you just strike gold with women.
当然了。
Absolutely.
你知道的。
You know?
我把我们刚才提到的那四个大品牌里，四个总裁中的三个都安排成了女性。
And, you know, I put in three of my top of my four presidents, those four big brands we just mentioned.
四个里有三个是女性。
Three of the four are women.
你放心，我们已经在做了。
So believe me, we're on it.
到目前为止，我们对Vans的重心一直放在男性身上，就是为了重新找回状态。
We've been focused for Vans so far on men to make sure we get our mojo back.
但一旦打开女性市场，潜力大得惊人。
But the unlock beyond that is so big when we get women going.
The North Face在女性市场才刚起步，说实话。
North Face, barely scratched the surface on women, honestly.
Timberland也是。
Timberland too.
Ultra的话，男女比例大概是六比四。
And and and Ultra's probably sixty forty men, women.
所以每个品牌都有很大的提升空间。
So all of them have potential.
现在，每当我听到个位数高段或者两位数的增长，我就会想，你知道吗？
Now I I think when I hear the numbers high single digit or double digit, I think, you know what?
他刚上我们节目时，第一件事就说了，要先把资产负债表理顺。
The man did what he said he was gonna do first when he came on our show, when he came on immediately, was you fix the balance sheet.
资产负债表已经不再是问题了。
The balance sheet is no longer the question.
首先，你消除了所有那些让人担心扩张的顾虑。
Took off first of all, you took off any of like, wow, extension worries.
然后，你清除了那些让我心里打鼓的东西。
Then you got rid of the stuff which made me feel like, oh, I don't know.
现在看起来，这根本不会对他造成伤害。
It looks like I'm not gonna it's it it it won't hurt him.
你现在拥有的是一张支持增长的资产负债表。
You've got a growth mode balance sheet now.
告诉我，你正在关注哪些目标？
Tell me who you're looking at.
你想收购什么来进一步增强实力？
What do you wanna buy that would augment?
我刚来第一天，就向投资者公开做出了承诺。
I committed to investors publicly the first day I got here.
在考虑再次投资增长之前，我们会先把杠杆比率降到2.5以下。
We'd get that leverage ratio down below two and a half before we look at growth at investments to grow again.
我们自身有巨大的内生增长空间，短期内根本不需要外部收购。
And we have so much organic growth potential, we won't need it for a while.
但到了某个时候，你知道，我们会把比率降到2.5以下——这是我们2028年承诺的目标。
But at some point, you know, we go below two and a half, which we committed in '28.
就连今年，我们的指引也是从0.206到0.209。
Now even this year, we're guiding 02/06 to 02/09.
所以这其实就是我们2027年的目标。
So that's this is our '27.
我们现在比原计划提前了一年。
So we're a year ahead of schedule here.
但只要一降到2.5以下，我们就会开始考虑行动。
But if we get if once we get below 2.5, we will be looking.
对。
Yeah.
显然，我现在还不能谈具体会是谁，但外面确实有不少机会。
Obviously, I'm not ready to talk about who it would be today, but I there's certainly things out there.
不过最重要的是，吉姆，我们现有的业务本身就有很多增长空间。
But the most important thing is we really have a lot of growth in our existing business, Jim.
我其实并不觉得非得去买点什么，但如果有合适的机会，那也算是锦上添花。
I I don't feel the need to buy anything, but that's that's gravy on top of everything else.
我完全理解你的意思。
I I totally hear that.
而且我觉得大家应该明白，你们这一年并不顺遂。
And I think people should recognize that it wasn't like you had a a smooth year.
你们遇到了关税问题，这真的很难搞懂，尤其是对那些投资者来说，他们直接就说：
You had tariffs, which I think were very hard to comprehend, particularly, by the way, among investors who just said, you know what?
这太复杂了。
It's too complicated.
我懒得碰这个。
I don't wanna touch it.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
那一年末还有关税和战争。
There were tariffs, and there was the war at the end of the year.
人们还一直担心人工智能会夺走工作、拖累GDP、推高失业率。
There's there's all the the fears of AI wiping out jobs and hurting the GDP and driving higher unemployment.
这些因素始终都存在。
All those things are always in play.
但你知道，我上次来的时候就跟你提过，我们有很多事情是能掌控的。
But you know, I told you this last time I was on, we have so many things in our control.
我特别欣赏自己接手公司时的那种情况——那时公司正处于深度转型期，现在则进入了增长阶段，我们手上有太多可调整的变量。
You know, one of the things I love about coming into a company like I did when I did, which was deep turnaround mode, and now we're in growth mode, is that we had so many variables to to play with.
现在我们正在充分利用这些变量。
Now we're exploiting all those variables.
所以我们现在处于增长阶段，要把这些优势全面发挥出来，推动业绩持续攀升。
So we're we're in growth mode, we're gonna we're gonna blow that all through all of them to get to higher and higher growth.
你们还保留着品牌库存吗？
Did you keep the cache?
我一直觉得，Timberland的品牌影响力比大多数人想象的要大得多。
Mean, I always felt that Timberland had a much bigger cache than people realized.
The North Face在明星和社交媒体人群中的品牌潜力巨大。
North Face, tremendous potential for cache with with the celebs, with the social media people.
你们现在处于什么阶段？
Where are you?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这正是这家公司、这个领域最吸引人的地方。
I mean, that's the most appealing thing about this particular company in this particular space.
我们有一些品牌，既有奢侈品的光环，价格却亲民得像街边小店，这真是个理想的位置。
We have brands that fit that that that that the cachet of luxury, but the price of Main Street, you know, and that is a beautiful place to be.
我的意思是，我们的定价都很亲民，但照样能卖高端产品，价格还能越抬越高。
I mean, all of our prices, all of our prices are affordable, but we can sell elevated product up to higher and higher price points.
我们还能和时尚界顶尖的人物合作，你知道的，那些最有影响力的人。
And we can collaborate with people like, you know, the the really top of the fashion world.
我们确实在这么做，因为他们本身就自带那种高端光环。
And we are because they do have that kind of cachet.
你刚才提到了平价品牌。
Well, you mentioned the affordable brand.
消费者呢，有时候今天这样，明天又那样，态度挺摇摆的。
The consumer, alternately, depending upon the day, seems to be wavering.
也许直接面向消费者的销售数据能说明问题，但你觉得，谁会愿意为一双Timberland花120美元？
I guess maybe the instant DTC would give you the numbers, but where do you see the consumer, someone who would be willing to pay a 120 for Timberland?
你们的最高定价能到多少？
Whatever what is your max price?
展开剩余字幕（还有 451 条）
我有点担心，你最贵的那些产品会不会卖不动。
Because I'm getting worried that your max your your priciest stuff won't move.
这个品牌最厉害的地方就在于价格很灵活。
You know, the coolest thing about this brand is we have price.
就连我们最贵的鞋款Timberland，平均售价都能到220美元，但卖得非常好。
We have even in Timberland, which is the highest price footwear we sell on average, which they could sell for $2.20 and they're selling very well at $2.20.
我们也有低至120美元、100美元的产品。
We've got things you can buy all the way down to 120, a $100.
Vans的产品从60美元、甚至50美元就能买到，但也能买到120美元以上的。
In vans, can buy down to $60 or even 50, but you can also pay up to 120 and beyond.
如果你没抢到像刚推出的Satoshi这样的联名款，可能就得花600美元了，而且还真有人愿意买。
If you don't catch a collaboration early enough, like our Satoshi that just launched, you might have to pay $600 and we will and people are.
我们所有品牌的价格区间都非常广。
So there's a wide range on all of our brands and price points.
我们的策略之一就是，既能往上提升高端产品，又不丢掉主流价位的市场。
You know, it's one of the one of the strategies we have is we can elevate up while we continue to sell at the at the mainstream price point.
最后一点，美国的年轻人已经转变了。
And last thing, America's youth turned.
从这里看，国际市场形势相当严峻。
International looks very tough from here.
接下来，你打算怎么让这种情况在其他地方也发生？
What can you do to make it so that that's next?
说实话，我觉得我们得在批发渠道上真正把事情做好。
You know, I really think we just gotta execute really, really well in our wholesale channels.
这方面还有很多提升空间，我们正在全力以赴。
We've got a lot of improvement to do there, and we are working hard on it.
我们刚调整了负责人，之前带领美洲区实现逆转的那位，从去年年底开始接管了全球商业业务。
We've just changed you know, our leader who was running the Americas who drove the turnaround there, has now taken over the total commercial globe as of as of the end of last year.
我们对他充满期待。
So we're excited about him.
他也对自己的团队充满热情。
He's excited about his team.
我们有一支非常出色的团队。
We've got a really great team.
我们在国际市场上也有不少不错的定价优势。
We've got a lot of great price coming internationally too.
这需要时间，但我们一定能达成目标。
So it'll take time, but we'll get there.
你一直都很稳定。
Well, you've been consistent.
你在这档节目里承诺的每一件事都实现了。
Everything you promised on the show has been right.
其他人已经提前看到了转折。
Other people have gotten ahead of the turn.
我之所以信赖你，是因为你一路以来都坦诚相待。
I rely on what you say because you have been straight with us the whole way.
拉克和达里尔，VF公司总裁兼首席执行官，我认为这里的转变正完全按照你的预测进行。
Rack and Daryl, president, CEO of VF Corp, where I think the turn is going exactly as you predicted.
谢谢，帕特里克。
Thank you, Patrick.
非常感谢你，吉姆。
Thank you so much, Jim.
当然了，老兄。
Absolutely, man.
我待会儿还会回来休息一下。
I'm gonna be back in for a break.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中一个
One of
我最欣赏的一条建议是，想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有各种各样的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
要想成就大事，就得有大格局。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
如果你
If you
想了解人工智能，光看上市公司是不够的，因为这个领域很多关键玩家还都是私营公司。
wanna get a read on AI, it's not enough to follow publicly traded companies because many of the most important players in this space are still private.
拿Databricks来说，它帮企业整理杂乱分散的数据，进行分析，基于数据构建AI系统，说白了，就是让你搞清楚自己手里有什么。
Take Databricks, which helps companies take messy, fragmented data, organize it, analyze it, build AI on top of it, and frankly, figure out what you have.
截至二月，这家公司的年收入已经达到了54亿美元。
As of February, this company had $5,400,000,000 annual revenue run rate.
到现在，这个数字肯定高多了，他们增长得简直像野草一样快。
And by now, it's gotta be substantially higher than that as these guys are growing like a weed.
Databricks已经实现正向自由现金流。
Databricks is free cash flow positive.
它正在源源不断地签下大单。
It's bringing in tons of business.
这家公司上一轮私募融资估值高达1340亿美元，不是没道理的。
There's a reason this company got a $134,000,000,000 valuations last private fundraising round.
正因如此，Databricks才排进了今年CNBC颠覆者50强的第三名。
All that helps send Databricks to the number three spot on this year's CNBC disruptor 50 list.
现在AI进入了智能代理时代，这家公司已经成了重磅玩家。
Now that AI has entered the agentic era, this one's become a heavy hitter.
接下来让我们仔细看看阿里·加齐怎么说。
So let's take a closer look with Ali Gazzi.
他是Databricks的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
He's the cofounder and CEO of Databricks.
为了深入了解，加齐先生，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。
To learn more, mister Gazzi, welcome back to Mad Money.
非常感谢您的邀请。
Thank you so much.
每次上节目都特别开心。
Always great to be on.
很高兴见到你。
Hey, It's great to see you.
首先，我得先走个过场。
First of all, I I gotta go through this rigmarole.
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
但你看，这么多公司，什么时候Anthropic才能真正崛起，把AI领域打开，像SpaceX那样上市呢？
But, know, we got all these people, you know, when is the anthropic gonna come above and open AIs and file that SpaceX?
很多这类公司其实都很缺钱。
You know, a lot of those companies need money.
我一看你们公司，就觉得你们才是真正掌握主动权的人。
When I look at your company, I say to myself, here's someone who's in the driver's seat.
你可以上市，也可以不上市，完全由自己决定。
You can come public, not come public.
这样看待Databricks，难道不比其他公司总让我们猜来猜去要强得多吗？
Is that not a better way to look at Databricks than the other guys where we play the guessing game all the time?
是的。
Yeah.
你的意思是，如果你烧钱烧得厉害，比如一千亿、三千亿美金，那你就必须融资，必须进公开市场，别无选择。
I mean, the way you think about it is that if you're burning huge amounts of capital, like $10.20, $3,040,000,000,000 dollars, you need the capital, you need to be in the public markets, you have no choice.
对于Databricks来说，我们一分钱都没烧，完全是盈亏平衡。
For Databricks, we don't burn any money at all, $0.
所以我们能自己掌握时机。
So for us, we can choose the timing.
我觉得今年当一家私营公司挺合适的，因为现在正是该埋头搞研发的时候——整个市场，不管是公开的还是私有的，所有企业都在经历巨大转型。
I think this is a good year to be private because I think this is a good year where you wanna be building because we're going through a huge transition in the market, in public, in private, all enterprises.
这场AI革命正在发生。
This AI revolution is happening.
所以现在私下里专心做产品是最好的选择，我们迟早会上市，但今年真不是合适的时机。
So it's better to build in private right now, and we will be public and we will go public, but I don't think this year is a good time for us.
明白了。
Alright.
我第一次见你的时候，就心想，等等，有点意思。
So when I first met you, I said, well, wait a second.
我看出你们在做什么了。
I see what's going on here.
你可以拿走这些数据，但这是你的数据。
You can take the here's the data, but it's your data.
你可以主动推进。
You can prosecute.
你可以直接回应。
You can answer it.
你可以提出各种问题。
You can inquire things.
自从有了AI，现在能做的事一下子从五个变成了上百个。
It seems like ever since AI, now there's like a 100 things you could do if there were five things before.
你会建议客户说，现在你们能做这个了，他们真的会去用吗？
Do you advise your clients, look, you can do this now that one and do they avail themselves of it?
是的，说实话，现在全球每一位首席执行官，不管是不是科技行业，最关心的就是：这些AI实在太厉害了。
Yeah, look, I think the thing that is top of mind right now for every CEO on the planet, not just in tech, any CEO is, wow, these AIs are so amazing.
它们能做的事情太惊人了，但私下里——他们不愿承认的是——自己的公司根本还没部署任何AI技术。
They can do so amazing things, but secretly, and they don't want to admit this, my organization has none of the AI, it's not established.
我们还没有能独立承担大量工作的智能助手。
We don't have agentic coworkers doing lots and lots of work.
我该怎么把人工智能引入我的公司？
How do I get AI into my organization?
AI本身并不缺智能，可为什么这些智能助手在企业里用不起来？
And they have plenty of intelligence in the AIs, but why are the agents not working in the enterprise?
问题到底出在哪？
What's going on?
简单来说，只要你把所有数据和背景都给足，问题也问得清清楚楚，AI每次都能给出完美的答案。
And the simple answer to that is the AIs, if you give them all the data and the context, if you perfectly ask the question with all the context, they will nail the answer every time.
所以真正的问题不在于AI不够聪明。
So the big question is AI doesn't have an intelligence problem.
而在于AI缺乏足够的上下文信息。
AI has a context problem.
我们该怎么把必要的背景信息喂给它？
How do we feed it that context?
而这些上下文都藏在数据里。
And that context is in the data.
所以这是当务之急。
So that's top of mind.
每个人都想解决这个问题。
Everyone wants to solve this problem.
现在世界上没人不希望把这个问题彻底搞定。
No one on the planet right now doesn't wanna have this problem nailed.
好的。
All right.
那如果我有了Genie，我能用它做什么？
So how about if I had Genie?
我该怎么用它呢？
What would I do with it?
没错。
Yeah.
所以 Genie 内置了一个叫 Genie 本体的东西。
So Genie has built into it something called Genie Ontology.
Genie 本体就是让你的数据派上用场。
So Genie ontology, have your data.
所以你这么说，让我想起以前 Talent 教我的那个‘本体’概念。
So you're talking that's what talent here taught me with the word ontology.
对。
Yeah.
他们也有类似的东西，而且是很好的合作伙伴。
They have it too, and they're a great partner.
但 Genie 本体的工作方式是，我们已经自动把所有数据都整合到了所谓的 Databricks 湖仓里。
But the way Genie ontology works is that automatically, we already have all the data in what we call the Databricks Lakehouse.
这些数据就在那儿，量很大，有结构化的，也有非结构化的。
That data is sitting there, but it's a lot of data, structured, unstructured.
所以我们不希望 AI 去一遍遍地遍历代码和数据，盲目地找有用的信息。
So we don't wanna have the AIs just go loop through the code and just loop through all the data and search for nuggets.
现在就是这么做的。
That's what happens today.
现在人们用云代码或者别的智能代理，一遍遍地遍历数据，光是跑这些操作就得花不少钱。
Today people use a cloud code or they use some other agent and it just goes through and loops through, costs a lot of money to loop through all the data.
所以我们就在Genie里自动构建了这个图谱。
So what we do is we automatically in Genie have constructed the graph.
本体其实就是一张图，里面包含了很多信息片段，比如收入是怎么算的，员工人数在哪儿找，产品分类又在哪儿。
So ontology is a graph and it has these little snippets of nuggets of information like, you know, revenue is calculated this way, number of employees is found over there, product categories is here.
当你提问时，Genie就会用这个本体图谱来给你回答。
And when you ask a question, it uses this ontology inside Genie to answer those questions.
我个人呢，每次开会都会用Genie。
So I personally, every meeting I'm at, I'm using Genie.
只要一有疑问，我就直接在Genie里问出来。
Like anything that comes up, I'm asking the question in Genie.
它都能给出答案。
It's giving the answers.
很多事要是以前，我得等两三天，或者让人去查数据，因为你真的需要准确的数字和严谨的分析，对吧？
A lot of the things that otherwise I would have to wait two, three days or have someone go look up the numbers because, you know, you really want numeracy and you want analytical accuracy here, right?
没错。
Right.
这可不是为了生成文字。
This is not about producing text.
你希望它告诉你，收入都有哪些不同的类别？
You want it to produce for you, what are the different revenue categories?
而且你希望这些数字绝对准确。
And you want those numbers to be accurate.
Genie 在这方面表现特别出色。
So Genie really excels at that.
这很大程度上要归功于这个本体图谱。
And a lot of that is thanks to this ontology graph.
明白了。
Okay.
那我换个公司，比如说我待在另一家公司。
So tell me, let's say I'm with another outfit.
我们之前用过很多次 Snowflake。
We've had Snowflake on many times.
我听你说了，感觉你们确实做了些很厉害的东西。
And I hear what you said, and it sounds like, wow, you guys are doing some cool stuff.
从 Snowflake 换到 Databricks，成本不会太高吧？
Isn't it too costly to go from Snowflake to Databricks?
我觉得 Snowflake 是家很棒的公司。
Well, I think that's a great company.
这两家公司背景不一样。
You know, the two companies have different backgrounds.
我们是从 AI 领域成长起来的，早在 2009 年就开始做 AI 了，公司正式成立是 2013 年。
We grew up in AI, so we started doing AI, you know, in 2009, frankly, and then when the company started in 2013.
到现在，我们已经和数据与 AI 划上等号了。
We're at this point synonymous with the data and AI company.
你要是搜一下，出来的肯定是Databricks。
If you search for that, it will come up Databricks.
他们的根基是数据仓库，但确实很不错。
You know, their roots are data warehousing, but they're great.
他们有个出色的CEO，发展速度也很快，还在不断加码AI功能。
They have a great CEO and they're moving fast and, you know, they're adding AI capabilities as well.
所以市场上竞争是免不了的。
So, you know, there's competition in the market.
不过我觉得Genie的本体结构真的很特别。
I think the Genie ontology is special, though.
我们对数据的开放态度也很独特，跟其他厂商完全不一样。
And I think our open approach to data is also unique and and very differentiated from all the other actual vendors.
我们当初就是从一个理念开始的：数据应该以开放格式存在。
We started this whole revolution by data should be open in open format.
而且应该集中在一个地方，也就是我们说的湖仓一体。
It should be in one place, what we call the lake house.
这在智能代理的变革中至关重要，因为你不可能给每个私有的孤立数据库都给代理开权限。
That turns out that's really important for the agentic revolution because you can't grant access for each of your proprietary silo databases to your agents.
代理直接访问这个湖仓就行了。
The agents just go to this lake house.
现在，湖仓已经成了真正的数据权威来源。
So the lake house has become the system of record nowadays.
所以我开玩笑管它叫Sora，就是给代理用的数据权威系统。
So I joke and I call it Sora, you know, the system of record for agents.
你知道吧，这个名字现在空着呢。
You know, that product name is now available.
我们就是这么叫它的。
That's what we call it.
最后一个问题。
Last question.
我对这一点有点困惑。
And I am confused about this.
那你们的产品有什么吸引力能让人不选它呢？
What's the proposition to stay off of your product?
我的意思是，如果我见到一位CEO，他们的数据全在本地，又没法用Databricks处理，我是不是该默认他们是传统派，没用上那些能提升效率、做得更好的工具？
I mean, if I meet a CEO and they have all their data on prem and they can't prosecute it using Databricks, shouldn't I make a presumption that perhaps they are old school and not availing themselves of things that would be make them more efficient and better what they do?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这些公司都想着迁到云上。
I mean, all of these guys wanna move to the cloud.
首先，财富500强和全球2000强企业里，绝大多数核心业务都已经在云上了。
First of all, the vast majority of Fortune five hundred Global two thousand already for the core workloads are in the cloud.
尤其是因为GPU和AI技术都集中在云上。
But especially because, you know, the GPUs and the AI is in the cloud.
不过确实也有一些企业被锁在本地，我们也在跟他们合作。
But, yeah, some are locked down on premise, and we're working with them.
他们其实也想走出来。
They wanna get out.
我还没听过谁说，我们用的是本地部署。
I haven't heard anyone that says, hey, we're on prem.
我们特别喜欢。
We love it.
我们打算一直留在那儿。
We're gonna stay there.
那才更出色。
It's much better.
GPU性能更强。
The GPUs are better.
AI能力也更优。
The AI is better.
别来打扰我们。
Leave us alone.
你搞错了。
You're wrong.
没人跟我说过他们用的是本地部署
Nobody's I I don't know anyone that
我不知道该怎么说，要是我真在运营一家公司，其实我之前也做过几家企业。
does I don't know how if I were running a bit well, actually, I've run a couple of business.
但如果我现在要运营一家数据库公司——据我所知目前只有一家——没有你们我该怎么搞？
But if I were running a database business of which currently I I am aware of one, how I would do it without you?
因为现在全靠猜。
Because everything's guessing.
对吧？
Right?
我们以前习惯了老办法，就是瞎猜。
We were just used to the old way we used to guess.
我们会看一些数据。
We would look at some things.
也许会搞个焦点小组。
Maybe we have a focus group.
也许我们可以挑几个账户，看看里面的情况。
Maybe we pick a couple of accounts, see what's going on.
但这不就是以前没有Databricks时的做法吗？
But isn't that the way it used to be before Databricks?
是的。
Yeah.
我不认为我们是唯一一家实现这一点的公司。
I wouldn't say we are the only company that actually enabled that.
不过没错，数据领域的AI革命正在发生。
But, yeah, this is mean, the AI revolution with data is happening.
正是这些技术推动了这场变革。
It's what's enabling that.
但关键的缺失环节在于上下文。
The key missing piece though is that context.
你怎么把这种上下文和数据传给智能代理呢？
How do you get that context and that data into the agents?
我觉得这个问题就连我们自己也还没彻底解决，对吧？
And I think that's far from a solved problem even by us, right?
但确实，我们已经看到了进展。
But yes, we're seeing it.
举个我特别喜欢的例子，就是普拉达。
Like, you know, one of my favorite example is Prada.
人人都知道普拉达这个品牌。
Everyone knows the brand Prada.
没错。
Sure.
以前他们所有的收入数据、关键指标全靠Excel和表格来管理。
And they used to have all the revenue, all their KPIs, all of this in Excel and spreadsheets.
现在他们把这些数据都迁移到了我们基于链接的数据库里。
And so they've moved it into our link based database that we have.
有了AI，他们现在能实时提问，比如谁在买手提包，谁在买鞋子。
And then now they can with AI in real time ask questions, you know, who's buying a purse, know, who's buying a shoe.
没错。
Right.
或者说，告诉我们他们的库存情况之类的。
Or, you know, tell us about their inventory and so on.
所以，现在我们能用人工智能来做这些，真的特别神奇。
So, yeah, now we can do it with AI and, you know, it just it's magical.
很高兴你能来参加。
Well, I think it's great to have you on.
你来真是太好了，因为你讲英语，而且能把事情办成。
It's magical to have you on because you speak English and you get the job done.
有你在这儿真让人开心，因为一个真正为业务找正确方向的人，往往和那些只想着讨好股市的人完全不同。
And it's a joy to have you because, know, it's a great a guy who's trying to figure out what's right for the business is often and very different from a guy who's trying to gain the stock market.
现在很多人都在试图这么做。
And we know many people are trying to do that now.
阿里·加齐是Databricks的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
Ali Gazzi is co founder and CEO of Databricks.
这是粗略清单里的第三条，但可能是我也不知道哪一条。
This is number three of this rough list, but it's probably one of I don't know.
我不该贬低其他公司，但这家公司真的没必要上市。
I shouldn't slander the all the other companies, but this is the one that doesn't need to come public.
这才是你真正想看到的公司。
That's the kind of company you really want.
谢谢。
Thank you.
很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
我也是。
Likewise.
非常感谢你。
Thank you so much.
好的。
Alright.
《疯狂金钱》又回来了。
Mad Money's back here to the.
如果你想了解人工智能，光看上市公司是不够的，因为这个领域里很多关键玩家还都是私营公司。
If you wanna get a read on AI, it's not enough to follow publicly traded companies because many of the most important players in the space are still private.
拿Databricks来说，它帮企业整理杂乱分散的数据，进行分析，基于这些数据构建AI系统，说白了，就是让你搞清楚自己手里到底有什么。
Take Databricks, which helps companies take messy, fragmented data, organize it, analyze it, build AI on top of it, and frankly, figure out what you have.
截至二月，这家公司的年收入已达到54亿美元。
As of February, this company had $5,400,000,000 annual revenue run rate.
到现在，这个数字肯定高多了，他们增长得简直像野草一样。
And by now, it's gotta be substantially higher than that as these guys are growing like a weed.
Databricks已经实现正向自由现金流。
Databricks is free cash flow positive.
它正在源源不断地签下大单。
It's bringing in tons of business.
这家公司上一轮私募融资时估值高达1340亿美元，这背后是有原因的。
There's a reason this company got a $134,000,000,000 valuations last private fundraising round.
这些成就让 Databricks 今年登上了 CNBC 最具颠覆性企业 50 强的第三名。
All that helps send Databricks to the number three spot on this year's CNBC disruptor 50 list.
如今 AI 已经进入智能代理时代，这家公司已经成了举足轻重的角色。
Now that AI has entered the agentic era, this one's become a heavy hitter.
接下来，我们请来 Ali Godzi 详细聊聊。
So let's take a closer look with Ali Godzi.
他是 Databricks 的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
He's the cofounder and CEO of Databricks.
Godzi 先生，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。
To learn more, mister Godzi, welcome back to Mad Money.
谢谢。
Thank you
非常荣幸能来。
so much.
每次上节目都特别开心。
Always great to be on.
嘿，阿尔。
Hey, Al.
见到你真好。
It's great to see you.
首先，我得走个过场。
First of all, I I gotta go through this rigmarole.
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
你看，我们这儿这么多人。
But, you know, we got all these people.
Anthropic那边什么时候来？
You know, when is the anthropic gonna come?
Bob和OpenAI，是在SpaceX那边注册的吗？
Bob and open AI, is it filed at SpaceX?
这些公司都很缺钱。
A lot of those companies need money.
我一看你们公司，就觉得你们才是真正掌握主动权的人。
When I look at your company, I say to myself, here's someone who's in the driver's seat.
要不要上市，你们自己说了算。
You can come public, not come public.
这样看待Databricks，难道不比那些总让人猜来猜去的公司更合理吗？
Is that not a better way to look at Databricks than the other guys where we play the guessing game all the time?
对。
Yeah.
你的思路是，如果你每天烧掉上千亿美金，那你就必须融资，必须去公开市场，别无选择。
I mean, the way you think about it is that if you're burning huge amounts of capital, like $10.20, $3,040,000,000,000 dollars, you need the capital, you need to be in the public markets, you have no choice.
但对Databricks来说，我们一分不花，零亏损。
For Databricks, we don't burn any money at all, $0.
所以我们能自己决定什么时候行动。
So for us, we can choose the timing.
我觉得现在当一家私营公司正合适，因为现在正是埋头发展的黄金时机——整个市场，无论是公开还是私营企业，都在经历巨大转型。
I think this is a good year to be private because I think this is a good year where you wanna be building because we're going through a huge transition in the market, public, in private, all enterprises.
这场人工智能革命正在发生。
This AI revolution is happening.
所以现在私下发展更好，我们迟早会上市，但我觉得今年不是合适的时机。
So it's better to build in private right now, and we will be public and we will go public, but I don't think this year is a good time for us.
明白了。
Alright.
我第一次见你的时候，心里就嘀咕：等等，有点意思。
So when I first met you, I said, well, wait a second.
我看清了你们在做什么。
I see what's going on here.
你们可以使用这些数据，但数据的所有权是你们的。
You can take the here's the data, but it's your data.
你们可以主导进程。
You can prosecute.
你们能很好地回应这些问题。
You can answer it quite.
你可以去查询各种信息。
You can inquire things.
自从有了AI，现在能做的事一下子从五个变成了上百个。
It seems like ever since AI, now there's like a 100 things you could do if there were five things before.
你会建议客户说，现在你可以做这个、那个，他们真的会去用吗？
Do you advise your clients, look, you can do this now, that one, and do they avail themselves of it?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得现在全球每一位CEO，不只是科技行业的，任何行业的CEO，心里最挂念的就是：这些AI真是太厉害了。
Look, I think the thing that is top of mind right now for every CEO on the planet, not just in tech, any CEO is, wow, these AIs are so amazing.
它们能做的事情简直太惊人了。
They can do so amazing things.
但私下里，他们不愿承认的是，自己的公司根本还没用上任何AI技术。
But secretly, and they don't want to admit this, my organization has none of the AI.
还没真正落地。
It's not established.
我们还没有能独立承担大量工作的智能助手。
We don't have agentic coworkers doing lots and lots of work.
我该怎么把人工智能引入我的公司呢？
How do I get AI into my organization?
AI本身其实很有能力，但为什么这些智能体在企业里用不起来？
And they have plenty of intelligence in the AIs, but why are the agents not working in the enterprise?
问题到底出在哪？
What's going on?
简单来说，如果你把所有数据和背景都给足AI，问题也问得精准完整，它每次都能给出完美的答案。
And the simple answer to that is the AIs, if you give them all the data and the context, if you perfectly ask the question with all the context, they will nail the answer every time.
所以真正的问题不是AI不够聪明，而是它缺背景信息。
So the big question is AI doesn't have an intelligence problem, AI has a context problem.
我们该怎么把这些背景信息喂给它？
How do we feed it that context?
而这些背景信息，就藏在数据里。
And that context is in the data.
所以这成了当务之急。
So that's top of mind.
每个人都想解决这个问题。
Everyone wants to solve this problem.
现在世界上没人不希望把这个问题彻底搞定。
No one on the planet right now doesn't want to have this problem nailed.
好的。
All right.
那如果我有了Genie，我该怎么用它呢？
So how about if I had Genie, what would I do with it?
没错。
Yeah.
Genie内置了一个叫Genie本体的东西。
So Genie has built into it something called Genie ontology.
Genie本体。
Genie ontology.
让你的数据派上用场
Have your data
所以你是在说，Palantir 教会我的那个‘本体论’就是这个意思。
So you're talking that's what Palantir taught me with the word ontology.
没错。
Yeah.
他们也有类似的东西，而且是很好的合作伙伴。
They have it too, and they're a great partner.
但 Genie 本体论的工作方式是，我们已经自动把所有数据都整合到了所谓的 Databricks 湖仓里。
But the way Geneontology works is that automatically, we already have all the data in what we call the Databricks Lakehouse.
这些数据就在那儿，量很大，既有结构化的，也有非结构化的。
That data is sitting there, but it's a lot of data, structured and structured.
所以我们不希望 AI 只是盲目地遍历代码，把所有数据挨个翻一遍来找有用的信息。
So we don't want to have the AIs just go loop through the code and just loop through all the data and search for nuggets.
现在的情况就是这样。
That's what happens today.
现在大家都是用云代码或者别的智能代理，一遍遍遍历数据，光是跑这些循环就花不少钱。
Today, people use a cloud code or they use some other agent and it just goes through and loops through, costs a lot of money to loop through all the data.
所以我们用Genie的时候，会自动把图谱构建出来。
So what we do is we automatically in Genie have constructed the graph.
本体其实就是一张图，里面包含各种信息片段，比如收入是怎么算的，员工人数在哪儿找，产品分类又在哪儿。
So ontology is a graph and it has these little snippets of nuggets of information like, you know, revenue is calculated this way, number of employees is found over there, product categories is here.
当你提问的时候，Genie就会用这个本体结构来给你准确作答。
And when you ask a question, it uses this ontology inside Genie to answer those questions.
我个人每次开会都在用Genie。
So I personally, every meeting I'm at, I'm using Genie.
只要一有疑问，我就直接在Genie里问，它立马就能给出答案。
Like anything that comes up, I'm asking the question in Genie, it's giving me the answers.
很多事要搁以前，我得等两三天，或者让人去查数据，因为你得确保数字准确、分析靠谱，对吧？
A lot of the things that otherwise I would have to wait two, three days or have someone go look up the numbers because, you you really want numeracy and you want analytical accuracy here, right?
没错。
Right.
这可不是为了生成文字。
This is not about producing text.
你希望它主动为你提供答案。
You want it to produce for you.
不同的收入类别有哪些？
What are the different revenue categories?
而且你希望这些数据准确无误。
And you want those numbers to be accurate.
Genie 在这方面表现特别出色。
So Genie really excels at that.
这很大程度上要归功于这个本体图谱。
And a lot of that is thanks to this ontology graph.
明白了。
Okay.
那我举个例子，假设我在另一家公司。
So tell me, let's say I'm with another outfit.
我们之前已经多次提到过Snowflake。
We've had snowflake on many times.
我明白你的意思，听起来你们确实做了不少酷炫的东西。
And I hear what you said, it sounds like, wow, you guys are doing some cool stuff.
从Snowflake迁移到Databricks，成本会不会太高了？
Isn't it too costly to go from Snowflake to Databricks?
我觉得他们是一家很棒的公司。
Well, I think that's a great company.
你知道，这两家公司背景不一样。
You know, the two companies have different backgrounds.
我们是从AI领域成长起来的，早在2009年就开始做AI了，等公司2013年成立时，大家一提到数据和AI，第一个想到的就是Databricks。
We grew up in AI, so we started doing AI, you know, in 2009, frankly, and then when the company started in 2013, we're at this point synonymous with the data and AI company.
你去搜一下，出来的结果肯定都是Databricks。
If you search for that, it will come up Databricks.
他们的根基在数据仓库，但确实很出色。
You know, their roots are data warehousing, but they're great.
他们有个出色的CEO，发展速度也很快，而且也在不断加码AI功能。
They have a great CEO and they're moving fast and, you know, they're adding AI capabilities as well.
所以，市场上确实存在竞争。
So, you know, there's competition in the market.
不过我觉得Genie的本体结构很特别。
I think the Genie ontology is special, though.
而且我们对数据的开放态度也很独特，跟其他厂商完全不同。
And I think our open approach to data is also unique and very differentiated from all the other vendors.
我们当初推动这场变革，就是基于一个理念：数据应该以开放格式存在，集中在一个地方，也就是我们说的湖仓一体。
We started this whole revolution by data should be open in open formats, it should be in one place, what we call the lake house.
这对生成式AI的革命至关重要，因为你不可能给每个Agent都开放你那些封闭的独立数据库的权限。
That turns out that's really important for the Agenetic revolution because you can't grant access for each of your proprietary silo databases to your agents.
Agent们只需要直接访问这个湖仓一体平台就行。
The agents just go to this lake house.
现在，湖仓一体已经成了真正的数据中枢。
So the lake house has become the system of record nowadays.
所以我开玩笑叫它Sora，就是给智能代理用的系统之源，这个名字现在正好空着。
So I joke and I call it Sora, you know, the system of record for agents, you know, that that product name is now available.
我们就是这么叫它的。
That's what we call it.
最后一个问题。
Last question.
我有点搞不清楚。
I am confused about this.
那不使用你们的产品，理由是什么？
What's the proposition to stay off of your product?
我的意思是，如果我遇到一位CEO，他的数据全在本地，没法用Databricks处理，那我是不是可以合理推测，他可能还停留在传统模式，没意识到用现代工具能让他更高效、把事情做得更好？
I mean, if I meet a CEO and they have all their data on prem and they can't prosecute it using Databricks, well, shouldn't I make a presumption that perhaps they are old school and not availing themselves of things that would be make them more efficient and better what they do?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这些公司总得往云上迁吧。
I mean, of these guys wanna move to the cloud.
首先，财富500强和全球2000强企业中，绝大多数核心业务都已经上云了。
First of all, the vast majority of Fortune five hundred Global 2,000 already for the core workloads are in the cloud.
尤其是因为GPU和人工智能技术都集中在云上。
But especially because, you know, the GPUs and the AI is in the cloud.
当然，也有一些企业还在本地部署，我们也在帮他们迁移。
But, yeah, some are locked down on premise and we're working with them.
他们其实也想离开本地环境。
They wanna get out.
我还没听过谁说，我们就在本地，挺好的。
I haven't heard anyone that says, hey, we're on prem.
我们喜欢这样，打算一直留在本地。
We love it.
这其实没那么好。
We're going to stay there.
云上要好得多。
It's much better.
GPU更强大了。
The GPUs are better.
AI也更先进了。
The AI is better.
别来打扰我们。
Leave us alone.
你错了。
You're wrong.
没人这么想。
Nobody's.
我不太清楚。
I I don't know
我不认识谁会这么想。其实我经营过几家公司。
anyone I that don't know how if I were running a bit well, actually, I've run a couple of business.
如果我正在运营一家数据库公司——据我所知目前只有一家——我怎么可能不靠你们呢？因为现在全靠猜测。
But if I were running a database business of which currently I I am aware of one, how I would do it without you because everything's guessing.
对吧？
Right?
我们以前就习惯了靠猜测的老办法。
We were just used to the old way we used to guess.
我们会看看一些数据。
We would look at some things.
也许会搞个焦点小组。
Maybe we have a focus group.
或者挑几个客户，看看他们的情况。
Maybe we pick a couple of accounts, see what's going on.
但以前没有Databricks的时候，不就是这么干的吗？
But isn't that the way it used to be before Databricks?
是的。
Yeah.
我不认为我们是唯一一家实现这一点的公司。
I wouldn't say we are the only company that actually enabled that.
但这场数据驱动的AI革命正在发生。
But, this is, I mean, the AI revolution with data is happening.
正是它在推动这一切。
It's what's enabling that.
不过关键的缺失环节在于上下文。
The key missing piece though is that context.
你怎么把这种上下文和数据传给智能代理呢？
How do you get that context and that data into the agents?
我觉得，就连我们自己也还没解决这个问题。
And I think that's far from a solved problem even by us.
对吧？
Right?
不过确实，我们已经看到了迹象。
But yes, we're seeing it.
举个我特别喜欢的例子，就是普拉达。
Like, you know, one of my favorite example is Prada.
人人都知道普拉达这个品牌。
Everyone knows the brand Prada.
以前他们所有的收入、关键绩效指标全都靠Excel和表格来管理。
And they used to have all the revenue, all their KPIs, all of this in Excel and spreadsheets.
现在他们把这些数据都迁移到了我们基于链接的数据库里。
And so they've moved it into our link based database that we have.
有了AI，他们现在能实时提问，比如谁在买手提包，谁在买鞋子。
And then now they can with AI in real time ask questions, you know, who's buying a purse, you know, who's buying a shoe.
对吧。
Right.
或者问问库存情况之类的。
Or, you know, tell us about their inventory and so on.
所以现在有了AI，确实特别神奇。
So, yeah, now we can do it with AI and, you know, it just is magical.
很高兴你能来。
Well, I think it's great to have you on.
你能来真是太好了，你会说英语，而且做事特别靠谱。
It's magical to have you on because you speak English and you get the job done.
有你在这儿真让人开心，因为一个真正为业务着想的人，和一个只盯着股市的人，往往完全是两回事。
And it's a joy to have you because, you know, it's a great a guy who's trying to figure out what's right for the business is often and very different from a guy who's trying to gain the stock market.
现在很多人都在试图这么做。
And we know many people are trying to do that now.
阿里·加齐是Databricks的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
Ali Gazzi is cofounder and CEO of Databricks.
这排在我们这份粗糙名单的第三位，但说实话，我也不太确定该怎么说。
This is number three of this rough list, but it's probably one of don't know.
我可不想贬低其他公司，但这家公司根本不需要上市。
I shouldn't slander the all the other companies, but this is the one that doesn't need to come public.
这才是你真正想看到的企业。
That's the kind of company you really want.
谢谢。
Thank you.
很高兴见到你。
I great to see you.
我也是。
Likewise.
问题。
Quest.
谢谢。
Thank you
非常感谢。
so much.
好的。
Alright.
Bad Bunny回来了。
Bad Bunny's back.
先说第一个。
Get to the first.
接下来闪电问答环节就结束了。
And then the lightning round is over.
你准备好了吗？
Are you ready?
我们先从布莱恩开始。
Let's start with Brian.
来吧，布莱恩。
Come on, Brian.
吉姆，我是俱乐部成员，你的书是我投资的圣经。
Jim, I'm a club member and your book is my investment bible.
谢谢，霍
Thank you, How
怎么做。
to do it.
怎么做。
How to do it.
咱们开始吧。
Let's go.
现在正是制造业的关键时刻。
This is a pivotal time for manufacturing.
这只股票已经连续三个季度实现增长加速和利润提升。
This stock is the third quarter in a row of accelerating growth and improving profit.
它与西门子有合作关系，而西门子刚刚投资了五千万美元购买Xometry的股票。
It has a partnership with Siemens who just bought $50,000,000 of Xometry
Xometry。
Xometry.
我知道Xometry的成长速度非常快。
I know Xometry is growing like a weed.
我打算邀请Xometry的代表上来说说。
I'm going to invite Xometry on.
我对这家公司了解不够深，没法做评价，但我知道它所在的领域非常对路。
I don't know them well enough to opine on the company, but I do know that it's in the right space.
把他请上节目吧。
Let's get him on the shelf.
我们连线得克萨斯的詹姆斯。
Let's go to James in Texas.
詹姆斯。
James.
好的，先生。
Yes, sir.
谢谢您抽出时间接听我的电话。
Thank you for taking my call.
不用客气。
You're quite welcome.
对。
Yeah.
我对一家叫Equinix的公司感兴趣，拼写是e-q
I'm interested in a company called Equinix, e q
Equinix。
Equinix.
对。
Yes.
这是处理数据集的一个绝佳方式。
It's a great it's a great way to play the data set.
哦，不。
Oh, no.
他们要挂我电话了。
They're giving me the hook.
今晚真是够折腾的。
This is some night.
各位，这就是闪电环节的全部内容。
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.
闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。
The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
在结束又一个忙碌的日子之前，克拉默有一些最后的想法。
Coming up as we wrap up another busy day, Cramer has some final thoughts.
别错过他接下来的即兴点评。
Don't miss his no huddle next.
我们能不能别再这么没完没了地交易了？
Can we stop this endless trading, please?
每当我们听说中东可能要和平了，油价就下跌，交易员们立马转向挪威邮轮、皇家加勒比、达美和联合航空这些公司。
Every time we get a hint that peace might break out in The Middle East, we see oil go down, traders reach for Norwegian Cruise, Royal Caribbean, Delta, United, and couple of other airlines.
可一旦传闻中的进展没出现，我们又立刻抛售或做空这些公司，因为它们都耗油量巨大。
But then when the rumored piece fails to appear, we jettison or short these same companies because they all use a ton of oil.
这种操作简直太荒唐了，各位。
This game is just plain ridiculous, people.
我来告诉你们为什么。
I'll tell you why.
首先，我们根本不知道伊朗那边会发生什么。
First, we have no idea what's gonna happen to Iran.
其次，这种无休止的交易已经把这些与油价挂钩的股票变成了玩物。
Second, the endless trading has turned these oil sensor stocks into mere playthings.
你本来是想投资，找一家历经风雨都表现稳健的邮轮公司。
You were investing, you look for a cruise line that's worked through thick and thin.
你去买维京邮轮。
You go buy Viking.
咱们先退一步，好好想想这整个从伊朗局势到油价再到利率的交易逻辑。
Let's take a step back for a second and think about this whole Iran to oil to interest rate trade.
到底为什么有人会做这种事？
Why is anyone even doing this?
这种交易能赚钱，简直让人难以置信。
It's almost inconceivable that the trade can make you money.
这完全就是碰运气，跟本事没关系。
It's all game of chance, not a test of skill.
这根本算不上投资。
This is not investing at all.
我玩杰克。
I I play Jack.
我平时足球赛季喜欢玩每日幻想游戏，所以你可能觉得我算不上什么赌徒。
I I like daily fantasy during football season, so you may think of me, maybe not much of a gambler.
但如果你想押注和平协议落地的可能性，不如去预测市场下注，那才靠谱。
But I think if you wanna bet on the prospect of peace in the release, you should go to the prediction markets and place your wagers there.
这才是明智的选择。
Much better idea.
但如果你在做这种时断时续的原油交易，别把它当成投资。
But if you're doing these on on again, off again, oil trades, don't confuse that with investing.
说实话，这连交易都算不上。
Honestly, wouldn't call it trading.
我曾经专业交易了二十年，运气不错，赚了不少钱，每年都有进账，这已经很不错了。
I traded professionally for two decades and was fortunate enough to make a ton of money, and every year I did, which is not bad.
我跟一些顶尖交易员学过，他们一直灌输纪律的重要性。
I was taught by some amazing traders who hammered discipline into my head.
第一条规则：你有优势吗？
Rule number one, do you have an edge?
你掌握的信息是别人不知道的，还是只是在瞎猜？
Do you know something that's not well known by others, or are you just guessing?
光靠猜可不够。
That's not enough.
要想出手，你必须有真正的优势。
You need an edge to pull the trigger.
这场战争和总统的犹豫不决，都是你根本不可能有任何优势的典型例子。
This war and the indecision of the president are both examples of something that you cannot even for one second claim you have an edge on.
除非你在白宫工作，否则你纯粹就是在碰运气。
Unless you work in the White House, you're simply guessing.
这就像玩轮盘赌，完全不知道球会落在哪儿。
You're playing roulette where you have no idea where the ball's gonna land.
我真不明白，为什么有人会把运气和本事混为一谈。
I simply can't understand why people confuse these two efforts, chance and skill.
如果你真想赌运气，那就去预测市场吧。
If you wanna bet on chance, go to the prediction markets.
去赌场好了。
Go to the casino.
你可能会省下不少钱，因为我想不出还有什么比瞎猜总统在波斯湾的下一步行动更容易亏钱的了。
You'll probably save yourself some money because I can't think of a quicker way to lose than just trying to guess the president's next move in the Persian Gulf.
我老话说，华尔街峰会，这次专门献给你和你的朋友，吉姆·克莱默。
I like to say as always, the Wall Market Summit, I promise just for you and your man, Mad I'm Jim Cramer.
下次见。
See you next time.
吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.
你不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克莱默的观点基于他所认为可靠的资讯，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整或准确，也不应依赖这些信息做出决策。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。
To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开创先河的女性，正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有各种各样的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
想做成大事，就得有大格局。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期节目，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。