Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 5/4/26

你当时是怎么确信自己能做成一件前人都没做过的事的？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

这些开拓前路的女性正在彻底改写局面。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我认识的一位

One of my

我最推崇的一条建议是，多站在你老板的老板的角度想想对方的需求。

favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力的表现形式其实千差万别。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

说到底，核心就是要相信你自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，而且

Life is short, and

想干大事，就得敢想大目标。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能听到。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

我的

My

目标很简单：帮你赚钱。

mission is simple, to make you money.

我就是要让所有投资者都有公平的机会。

I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.

总有一个牛市在等着你，我保证帮你找到它。

There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.

《疯狂金钱》现在开始。

Mad Money starts now.

嘿，我是克莱默。

Hey, I'm Cramer.

欢迎收看《疯狂金钱》西雅图特别版。

Welcome to a special Seattle edition of Mad Money.

我刚跟朋友们待在一起，其实我这工作不只是为了逗你开心，更重要的是让你学到东西。

I've been with friends, I'm just trying to make a little bit My job is not just to entertain, but to educate the teach.

拨打180743给我打电话，或者在推特上关注我吉姆·克莱默。

Call me at 180743 tweet me Jim Cramer.

今天早上，我的《街头快讯》搭档一直问我，这场战争到底什么时候才会真正影响市场。

This morning, my squawk on the street co host called continue to ask me at what point does the war actually matter.

我跟他说，我们的股市对战争相对免疫，因为我们的经济主要靠服务业支撑。

I told him that our stocks are relatively insulated from the war because so much of our economy is service based.

而这意味着，它完全是国内的。

And that means it's domestic.

服务这东西，是没法出口的。

You don't export service.

除了旅行和休闲，我觉得咱们还能撑得住。

Aside from travel and leisure, I said, I think we'll be okay.

但有个大问题——万一出状况，后果可能很严重。

But and this is a very big but there's one case where things could go awry.

如果油价一路狂飙，高到影响我们的债券市场，那就不妙了。油价高我们还能扛，但利率一高，我们就扛不住了。

If oil prices rise so relentlessly, so high that they impact our bond market because we can handle higher oil, but we can't handle higher interest rates.

今天早上我们就看到了一点苗头：道指最终暴跌了557点，跌了0.41%，纳指也跌了0.19%。

Today, we saw a glimpse of that future with the Dow ultimately tumbling 557 points as we losing point point 41% and the Nasdaq declining point 19%.

今早六点的时候，市场还挺好，照例在涨。

The market was looking up this morning, 6AM, usual texts rallying.

你可能觉得五月会跟四月一样，一波三折。

You could imagine the month month of May kinda turning out a lot like April.

六点刚过一点，东部时间，突然传来消息：伊朗向两艘美国军舰发射了导弹。

Then a little after six eastern, we got reports that Iran had launched some missiles at two different US warships.

期货市场瞬间崩了。

The futures plummeted.

涨幅全没了。

The gains vanished.

最糟糕的是，国债也遭了重创。

And the worst of all, the treasury took a big hit.

利率直线上升。

Rates soared.

三十年期国债收益率直接突破了5%。

The thirty year treasury voted right through five.

原本以为中东和平曙光初现，正好赶上新任美联储主席打算降息，这整个乐观预期转眼间就崩塌了。

And the grand thesis, the idea that peace might be breaking out in The Middle East just when we have a new Fed chief coming in who wants to cut rates seemed to vanish before our eyes.

令人惊讶的是，关于导弹袭击美军舰艇的消息根本是假的，至少被严重夸大了。

Incredibly, the story about the missiles in the our navy turned out to be false or at least exaggerated.

实际上根本没有美军舰船被击中。

There's no US ships were actually hit.

但股市还是继续暴跌，因为伊朗那边正忙着违反停火协议，不断向海湾各国发射无人机和导弹。

But stocks kept getting hammered because the Iranians were busy violating the ceasefire and launching drones and missiles at countries throughout the Gulf.

可这场战争又回来了。

Yet, this the war's back on.

如果总统光说些表面的胜利，不真刀真枪地解决问题，利率还会继续往上涨。

And unless the president does something beyond talking about shallow victories and gets that straight open, we're gonna see interest rates keep climbing.

迟早有一天，想让国内经济加速增长的宏大计划，会变成一场被通胀拖垮的幻觉。

At a certain point, the grand plan to get the domestic economy growing faster will turn into an inflation addled grand illusion.

没错。

Sure.

有些板块还是涨了。

There were pockets that went higher.

油价当然反弹了。

Oils, of course, were rallied.

每次一出事，油价就涨。

Every time something bad happens, they rally.

一些数据中心股票悄悄爬升，那些蔫头耷脑的企业软件公司也终于风光了一回。

Some of the data center stocks crept higher, and the bedraggled enterprise software players had their day in the sun.

不过他们那点反弹也就持续了半天，接着又继续往下掉。

Although their day only seems to be like about a half a day and it's the decline then resumes.

整体来看，这真是个惨不忍睹的交易日。

Overall, it's plug ugly session.

也许这正是个好理由，别老盯着战争了，干脆飞去西雅图，看看那家从不睡觉的公司——还有他们那位好像也不睡觉的CEO。

Maybe that's a good reason to take a break from focusing on the war and head out to Seattle to see the company that never sleeps with its CEO who doesn't seem to sleep either.

我说的就是亚马逊，还有它的CEO安迪·贾西。

I'm talking about Amazon and its CEO, Eddie Jassy.

高利率能击倒不少公司。

Higher interest rates can fell many a company.

但如果你要猜谁会是最后站着的那一个，押注亚马逊绝对是个不错的选择——今天它的股价就涨了3.79美元。

But if you wanna guess who'd be the last man standing, who could do a lot worse than betting on Amazon with a stock that rallied $3.79 today?

如果真要打个赌，看哪家公司在消费者缩水的情况下还能活得滋润，那出人意料的赢家很可能是亚马逊——因为他们一直致力于把价格压到最低，这恰恰是经济下行时最硬核的应对策略。

If there were a caliche bet about which company could thrive with a crimped consumer, it will somewhat oddly be Amazon Because their goal is always to keep prices as low as possible, making the ultimate trade down play.

这就是为什么我们为教堂信托基金持有这只股票的原因。

There's a reason we own this one for the Chapel Trust.

我真的很佩服，亚马逊居然渗透到了我们生活的方方面面。

I'm in awe of how Amazon's become all encompassing in so many aspects of our lives.

就在今天，就在我说话的这时候——当然不是因为我有多了不起，我还没自恋到那种地步——亚马逊突然推出了一整套新的供应链服务，让制药、零售等各种行业的客户都能用上亚马逊庞大的物流运输网络。

Today, literally today, while I'm here, but not in honor of me because even I'm not narcissistic enough to believe that, Amazon rolled out a whole new business line, supply chain services where customers in all sorts of industries like drugs and pharma and retail can use Amazon's massive transportation logistics arm.

你肯定在高速公路上见过那些卡车。

You've seen the trucks on the highway.

没人能像亚马逊这样，总是准时把东西送到你手上。

No one seems to be able to get anything to you as on time like Amazon does.

如果你是个福特经销商，正等着一个福特F-150的零件去安抚一个火大的客户；或者你是个小饼干厂，想避开美国那套贵得离谱的分销系统——你直接找亚马逊，他们能准时送达，帮你省一大笔钱。

So if you're a Ford dealer waiting for a Ford F-one 150 truck part for an angry customer, or you're a small pretzel maker who might want to avoid the costly American distribution system, you can call Amazon, get it to the customer on time and save a fortune.

听到这些，我就忍不住想，亚马逊到底对美国、对你我来说，意味着什么？

When I hear things like that, I try to figure out how much Amazon means to America, means to you.

自从一个多世纪前标准石油因垄断被拆分以来，再没有哪家公司像亚马逊这样，对我们的经济增长产生过如此巨大的影响。

No one has ever been that big a factor to our growth since Standard Oil got broken up from monopolizing the oil market over a century ago.

我提这些，是因为我始终坚信一点：所有经济归根结底都建立在信用之上，包括我们现在的经济。

I bring this up because I'm never going to deviate from the notion that all economies are based on credit, including ours.

我们得让利率别再涨了。

We need rates to stop rising.

我开始觉得，再有几次伊朗无人机精准打击，原油就得冲到110美元，三十年期国债收益率也得飙到5.25%。

And I'm beginning to believe that we're just a couple of well executed Iranian drone strikes away from $110 crude and five and a quarter yield on the thirty year treasury.

也许再有几次导弹成功命中，油价就冲到120美元，三十年期利率直奔6%，光是想想我都头皮发麻——那简直拿砍刀往标普500上剁。

Maybe we're half a dozen successful missile strikes away from $120 oil, and then we slouch in towards 6 percent in the thirty year, something I don't even want to think about because it would be like taking a machete of the S and P 500.

那为啥不赶紧抛售，趁还没痛之前先撤呢？

So why not sell and get out ahead of the potential pain?

很简单。

Simple.

就因为像我今天待的这个地方。

Because of places like where I am today.

涨上来的，总归会跌回去。

What comes up occasionally comes down.

如果这波热潮真结束了，我都不敢想利率和旅游休闲业会崩成啥样——那是经济里最脆弱的一块。

And if this were ever ends, I can only imagine what will happen to interest rates and to travel and leisure, the hardest hit segment economy.

但你真正该持有的，是那些真正主导新经济的公司。

What you really would need to own though are the companies that actually dominate the new economy.

说咱们经济三分之二是服务业、三分之一是工业，听起来挺有道理。

It's good to say we're two thirds service and one third industrial.

可每次我去亚马逊，都觉得老生常谈，像在复述五十年前上第10课学的东西。

When I'm at Amazon, it feels like old hat, like I'm mouthing what I learned fifty years ago in Act 10.

离开那儿之后，我开始觉得，可能真有什么不一样的事在发生。

I leave here thinking something different may be happening.

某种能解释为什么科技股这么强、云巨头——像亚马逊这样的庞然大物——为何如此强势，甚至整个股市都这么坚挺的原因。

Something that explains the strength of tech and the all powerful nature of the hyperscalers, the behemoths of Amazon, and maybe the stock market in general.

现在的经济，本质上是靠计算机驱动的。

This economy is a computer driven economy.

我们靠算力运转。

We run on compute.

这正是我们的经济没像其他地方那样大幅放缓的重要原因。

It's a big reason why our economy hasn't slowed as much as others.

我们正越来越走向计算机驱动的经济，而且是往好的方向发展，因为这种经济靠AI让一切变得更快、更好、更便宜。

We're just getting more and more computer oriented in a positive way because computer driven economy uses AI to make everything faster, better, cheaper.

所以我们对全球的麻烦多少有点免疫力，这也引出了我的核心观点。

And that's why we have some immunity from the world's troubles, which brings me to the bottom line.

计算机驱动经济最厉害的地方在于，它根本不在乎油价或者利率。

The amazing thing about the computer driven economy is that it doesn't care much about oil or interest rates.

所以别太悲观，记住计算机的发展方向只有一个——往上走，而且正带着大量股票一起飞升。

So before you get too glum, remember that the drive of computers is going in one direction, higher, and it's taking a huge number of stocks along with it.

我们来接几个电话。

Let's take calls.

现在连线马里兰州的加布里埃尔。

Let's go to Gabriel in Maryland.

加布里埃尔。

Gabriel.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我挺好的。

I am doing well.

你呢，老兄？

How about you, partner?

我一切都好。

I'm I'm all good.

我是墨西哥裔美国人，明天就是五朔节了。

I mean, tomorrow, it's Cinco de Mayo as a Mexican American.

我特别感谢你们一直支持来自墨西哥的龙舌兰酒。

I'm very proud of all your support that you have been giving to the agave spirits coming from, Mexico.

你们做得真棒。

You're doing great.

我真的特别为你们骄傲。

Very proud of it.

嗯，谢谢你。

Well, thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们从哈利斯科和普埃布拉都推出了不错的品牌。

We got a nice business coming out of Jalisco and also out of Puebla.

谢谢你注意到这一点。

So thank you for noticing that.

我真的非常感激。

I really appreciate it.

不用谢。

No.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

我想

And I want to

把你脑子里的想法挑一点出来，说说对黑石的看法。

take your brain and pick a little bit of your ideas on Blackstone.

从三月中旬开始我就一直在加仓黑石。

Have been accumulating Blackstone since mid March.

嗯，明白了。

Okay.

我得跟你说，我真的很看好黑石。

And I've got to tell you something, but I like Blackstone very much.

我刚看了乔纳森·格雷今天接受大卫·法伯的采访。

I just talked to watch Jonathan Gray today talking to David Faber.

我觉得这形势真不错。

I think it's a really good situation.

要说的话，我反而想再买点黑石。

If anything, I'm interested in buying more Blackstone.

有多好？就这么好。

That's how good I think it is.

还有，福斯福罗向你们致以衷心的感谢。

And Fosforo thanks you tremendously.

大家别太沮丧啊，要知道，这个由计算机驱动的经济，对油价和利率的敏感度，可没其他行业那么高。

Before you get too glum everybody, remember that this computer driven economy isn't impacted by oil or interest rates as much as others.

我们今天有特别的《疯狂金钱》头条，先从我和亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西的深度对话说起。

We got a very special Mad Money Head, starting with my sit down with the man himself, Amazon CEO Andy Chassis.

从亚马逊在AI领域的布局，到他们打算挑战星链，这场畅谈的内容你绝对不能错过。

From Amazon's investments in AI to its plans to take on Starlink, you want do not wanna miss anything from our wide ranging conversation.

随着内存和CPU的股价不断刷新历史新高，我来给大家拆解，为什么华尔街对它们的暴涨这么措手不及。

Then as memory and CPU stops keep setting new all time highs, I'm breaking down why Wall Street's been caught so off guard by their move going higher.

我还跟联邦房地产信托基金的CEO聊了聊，看看房地产投资信托行业现在到底怎么样了。

And I'm getting a read on the real estate investment trust industry with the bank for CEO of Federal Realty Trust by now able to if

提到这些。

mentions.

给《疯狂金钱》发邮件到 madmoneyit@CNBC.com，或者拨打1-800-43-CNBC联系我们。

Send Jim an email to madmoneyit.@CNBC.com or give us a call at 180743 CNBC.

漏掉了什么？

Missed something?

去 madmoney.cnbc.com 看看吧。

Head to mad money dot CNBC dot com.

是什么让你有信心去做前人没做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓进取的女性，正在重塑格局。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种样子。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short, and

想干大事，就得有大格局。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持《CNBC变革者》和《权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.

每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

为庆祝美国创新250周年，我们深入一线，探访推动变革的企业，聚焦那些正在塑造未来的人。

To celebrate two hundred and fifty years of American innovation, we're on the ground with the companies pushing things forward, highlighting the names helping build what comes next.

所以我们来到了亚马逊总部。

And that's why we're here at Amazon's headquarters.

上周这家科技巨头公布了亮眼的季度财报，主要得益于其蓬勃发展的亚马逊云服务，也就是云计算和人工智能业务。

The tech giant reported a really fabulous quarter last week, driven by their booming Amazon Web Services business for cloud infrastructure and AI.

虽然亚马逊仍是全球最大的零售商之一，但仅AWS一项业务，年收入就已达到1500亿美元，而且他们还在不断添砖加瓦——从自建低轨卫星提供互联网服务，到开放供应链服务给任何有需要的人。

While this is still one of the largest retailers in the world, AWS alone has an annual revenue run rate of $150,000,000,000 And they keep adding more to the story on a pretty regular basis, from setting up their own low earth orbit satellites for internet service dropping their supply chain services to anyone who wants it.

这可是计算机驱动经济的核心。

It's at the heart of the computer driven economy.

咱们来见见这些计划背后的掌舵人——亚马逊的总裁兼首席执行官安迪·贾西。

So let's check-in with the man behind all these plans, Andy Jassy, the president and CEO of Amazon.

安迪，非常感谢你带我们来这里，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Andy, thank you so much for taking us here, and welcome back to Mad Money.

能和你一起在这儿真好。

It's great to be here with you.

好的。

Alright.

今天你透露了个大新闻，我觉得这特别能体现亚马逊的风格。

So you broke some news today, and I think it's kind of emblematic of what Amazon does.

你搞出的东西对消费者好、对企业好，还能让一切更便宜、跑得更快，而且这回是搞物流。

You've come up with something that is better for people, better for businesses, makes everything cheaper, run faster, and it's about logistics.

听着有点像你当年管AWS那会儿的风格。

Sounds like a little bit, like Amazon Web Services when you were running that.

嗯，确实有些相似之处。

Well, it has some similarities.

现在大多数公司都明白，与其自己搞基础设施，不如把系统搬到云上，这更划算。

I mean, there were you know, today, most companies don't think it's a good idea to run their own infrastructure technology themselves when they can put it in the cloud.

长远来看，你也会看到越来越多公司觉得，与其自己搞物流，不如直接用我们的供应链服务。

And I think over time, you might find that most companies don't feel like it's a good idea to have to run their own logistics when they can use our supply chain services.

我们当初做零售的时候，得把从厂家到上游仓库、再到实际的配送中心、支持多平台销售却共用一个库存池、最后到‘最后一公里’配送，这一整套流程都做到极致。

And so if you think about what we had to do as a retail business, we had to get really good at being able to move products from manufacturers to upstream storage warehouses to the actual fulfillment centers where you actually do the fulfillment to allowing people to sell in multiple marketplaces but have one inventory pool to the last mile delivery.

为了把零售业务做大，这些环节我们一个都不能落下。

We had to get good at all those to scale our retail business.

后来我们就想，既然我们已经做得这么好了，干嘛不把这些服务开放给各种规模的公司呢？

We just said, you know, it it makes so much sense to expose these services to companies of all sizes.

今天咱们刚宣布了三一重工、宝洁、Lands' End和American Eagle都在用我们的服务，但说实话，真正受益最大的可能是那些中小公司——省下自己建物流网络的麻烦，这价值太大了。

And, you know, today we announced that three m and Procter and Gamble and Lands' End and American Eagle were all using the services, but it may end up being the case that so many companies, small and mid sized, get the most benefit because to not have to build out their own logistics network is a big deal.

我一听这个，确实没错。

Well, when I hear I yes.

宝洁那边太棒了，我知道你特别想提美国鹰牌从西到东的布局。

Terrific about Procter, and I know you wanna send West East from American Eagle.

但我一直在想那些小商家或者中型公司，他们平时都是找分销商的。

But I was thinking about the small businessman or the middle who have normally go to a distributor.

也许他们可以直接找我们，省下分销商那30%的抽成。

Maybe they can go direct and the distributor won't take the 30%.

这对刚起步的创业者来说，真是个绝佳的机会。

It is just a fantastic opportunity for someone who is just starting a business.

没错。

Yeah.

你知道吗，现在任何规模的企业，尤其是不想自己从头搭建物流体系的小公司，要想整合一套供应链，既耗时又烧钱。如果我们能以极具竞争力的价格、高质量地提供这些模块，那就太有吸引力了。

You know, today to try and compile try a supply chain for any size business but particularly a small business that doesn't want to have to build out all those capabilities themselves is time consuming and expensive and so if we can provide those components at a very cost competitive rate like we do and at a very high quality, it's very compelling.

明白了。

Alright.

现在我想聊聊你的那封信，是这样的。

Now, I wanna go to your letter, was look.

我以前也跟你说过，有时候我觉得你太钻牛角尖了。

I've told you at times when I felt you were, like, too soul searching.

但这次完全不是那回事。

This was the opposite.

这简直就是赤裸裸的冒犯。

This was pure offense.

我知道你是个体育迷，我也是。

And I know you're a sports fan, I'm a sports fan.

我喜欢靠防守赢比赛，但进攻才够刺激。

I wanna win with defense, but offense is exciting.

亚马逊的晋升路径，可不完全是直线上升。

Progression at Amazon is not exactly a straight lie.

这话啥意思？

What does that mean?

嗯，我觉得吧，我特别喜欢乐队The Beths，她们的歌词和专辑名都特别有巧思。

Well, I I think I mean, I love this Beths the band, the Beths, and they have a very clever lyrics and album titles.

这张专辑叫《直路是个谎言》，真的特别打动我，因为人生重要的转折点从来不是一条直线。

And this last album, Straight Line Was a Lie, really spoke to me because most big inflections don't follow this one linear line.

要是真能按这条直线走，那该多省事，可现实根本不是这样。

It would be so much easier if they followed this straight linear line, but they don't.

所以你得承认这一点。

And means that you have to acknowledge that.

这意味着——

It means

你会经历一段艰难时期，会——

that you're gonna go through, there's gonna

出现动荡。

be disruption.

你会试一堆点子，结果全碰壁，最后还得从头再来。

You're gonna try ideas that don't work and you have to go back to the starting line.

如果一件事真的很重要，你就得想清楚：我是只赌一次，还是同时多条路一起试？因为这事太关键了。

If there's something important enough, you're gonna have to think about, do only I wanna take one shot at finding the answer or am I gonna take multiple parallel shots because it's so important.

我得确保在这儿找到一个能赢的方案。

I have to make sure I find a winning solution here.

我觉得，当你觉得某个转折点特别关键，比如人工智能，你就得下重注。

And I think that when you believe that there is a particular inflection that is disproportionately important, like AI is as an example, you wanna bet big.

哪怕这意味着你可能会有点过头，但这些转折点太重大了，直接影响到客户的体验和公司的未来，你必须全力以赴。

Even if it means that you, you know, you may over rotate a little bit, these inflections are so big and so impactful on the future of what customer experiences are and your company that you want to make sure that you've gone all in on.

这很重要，因为顺便说一句，你刚才用了四次‘重塑’，三次‘重新想象’。

Well, this is important because, by the way, you used the term reinvent four times, reimagine three times.

我就在想，你现在不是正在做这个吗？花两千亿美元，还真的相信它能有回报。

And I was thinking, well, isn't that what you're doing right now when you spend $200,000,000,000 and you actually believe it's gonna pay off?

是的。

Yeah.

对我来说，我们最大的资本投入，是因为坚信人工智能是我们这一代人遇到的最大技术变革。

Well, mean, to me, the really big capital expenditure bet that we're making is because we believe that AI is the biggest technology transformation in our lifetimes.

它会彻底重塑我们熟知的每一个客户体验，还会创造出我们从前根本想象不到的新体验。

It's gonna reinvent every single customer experience we know and altogether new ones we never imagined.

你看看现在这些东西增长的速度，就说AWS刚起步的前三年，我们当时觉得增长已经够快了，年收入才五千六百万美元。

And I you know, if you look at the pace that that things are growing I mean, just I I used in the letter the example of the first three after the first three years of AWS, we thought we were growing really fast we were about $56,000,000 in revenue.

可现在AI这个浪潮，才刚三年，我们的年营收已经突破一千五百亿美元，是当年AWS同期的260倍。

And after the first three years of this inflection of AI or this incarnation of AI, our run rate's over $15,000,000,000, 260 times what it was the first three years of AWS.

我们当初还以为AWS的增长够快了呢。

And we thought we were growing fast with AWS.

所以当这种变革来得这么剧烈的时候，你必须全力以赴地投资，让客户能最大程度地抓住机会——不只是客户受益，我们的股东和整个公司也会因此在五到十年后变得完全不同。如果我们保守行事，根本不可能有今天这种局面。

So when you have shifts that are this momentous, you you wanna make sure that you invest in such a way that you can pursue the opportunity as broadly for your customers as possible, as well as for, I think not just our customers will benefit, but our shareholders and the company as a whole will be a very different company five to ten years from now because we're betting big like this than it would otherwise be if we were conservative.

很多人都在说，你们花这么多钱，根本看不到回报。

I think there's so many people, pundits, whatever, who say they're spending so much without any real hope of of regaining it.

你不仅不认同这种说法，还说几年内就能看到回报，甚至展望三十年后。

Not only do you disagree with that, but you talk about a return in a couple of years, and then you're talking about thirty years.

回报会大到超乎想象。

The return will be unbelievable.

他们到底漏看了什么？

What are they missing?

我觉得有些人忘了AWS这种业务的现金流是怎么运作的。

Well, I think that it's people sometimes forget the way the cash cycle works in a business like AWS.

实际情况是，我们必须提前垫付资金和现金，才能等到后续变现。

So the way it works is that we have to lay out capital and cash in advance of when we can monetize it.

比如买地建数据中心、供电、盖楼、买服务器、芯片、网络设备，这些都得提前掏钱。

This is for land for the data centers, power, the buildings themselves, the hardware, the chips, networking gear.

所有这些开销都得提前搞定。

You have to lay all that out in advance.

有些是提前半年，很多甚至是提前两年就得安排好。

Some of it is about six months in advance and a bunch of it is two years in advance.

所以AWS增长越快，短期内我们就得砸更多钱进去，这会让我们的自由现金流短期内吃紧。

And so that means that the faster we grow in AWS, the more capital we have to lay out in the short term which will create challenges in your free cash flow in the short term.

但这些资产的使用寿命都是好几年的。

But these assets are many year useful life assets.

比如说网络设备和硬件，大概能用六年左右。

You know, on the on the networking and the hardware side, it's about six years.

至于数据中心这边，设备的使用寿命能有三十年以上。

On the data center side, it's thirty plus year useful life assets.

所以这些资产能长期产生收益，等收入增长追上资本支出的增长后，你的运营利润率、自由现金流和投资回报率都会变得非常漂亮。

And so you get to monetize those assets over a long period of time so that when your revenue growth starts to catch up with the capital expenditure growth, you actually end up really liking the operating margin, the free cash flow, and the ROIC.

我们以前在AWS第一波增长时就经历过这一幕——早期疯狂砸钱，几年后自由现金流和投资回报率直接起飞。

And so we've lived this movie once before in the first wave of AWS where we had this same type of of curve where we were spending so much CapEx in the short term, and then we all really liked the free cash flow and the ROIC a few years later.

我觉得这次也会重演，只是未来收入和自由现金流的规模会大得多。

And I think the same story is going to play out except with just much larger revenue and free cash flow downstream.

明白了。

Okay.

说到转折点，我注意到两个。

Now in terms of inflections, I saw two.

一个是食品，另一个是半导体。

One was food and the other was semis.

你在信里对这两块的分析，简直太震撼了。

And your description of these in the letter was just mind blowing.

我觉得股价涨这么多，不光是因为这一季的业绩，更因为你让大家看到了这些业务未来有多大的潜力。

One of the reasons why I think the stock went up so much wasn't just the quarter, but you explained how these could be big.

半导体这块业务，大家知道它对你来说有多大规模吗？

Semiconductors, do people know how big that business is for you?

我们正努力让更多人看清这块业务的前景。说实话，我们的芯片业务增长速度真的惊人。

Well, we're trying to help people be more aware of what that business looks And, like for you know, it's kind of remarkable how fast our chips business is growing.

上个季度我们刚公布，这块业务的年化收入已经突破了200亿美元。

It's, you know, last quarter we announced it's over a $20,000,000,000 annual run rate business.

但这个数字可能还低估了实际规模。

And that may under state really the size of it.

如果我们把2026年所有生产的芯片，像其他主流芯片公司那样，打包成机架卖给了AWS和第三方客户，那这块业务的年化收入可能直接冲到500亿美元。

If you if if we actually took all the chips that we're gonna produce in 2026 and we sold them to AWS and to third parties in the form of racks like most of the leading chip companies do, that business will look more like a $50,000,000,000 annual run rate business.

而且，它的年增长率还是三位数级别。

And, you know, it's growing triple digit percentages year over year.

全球最大的两家AI实验室——OpenAI和Anthropic，都已经跟我们签了多年协议，承诺采购数十吉瓦的TraniumAI芯片。

The two largest AI labs in the world in OpenAI and Anthropic have made multiyear, multi gigawatt commitments to Tranium, which is our AI silicon.

你可能看到了，Meta刚宣布他们要大规模使用我们的Graviton CPU芯片，用量达数千万核心。

You probably saw the meta just announced that that they're gonna consume tens of millions of cores of Graviton, which is our CPU chip.

现在，排名前一千的EC2客户里，有98%都在广泛使用Graviton。

Today, 98% of the top 1,000 EC two customers use Graviton in a very expansive way.

所以呢，这个业务对客户来说其实特别好，既给了他们更多选择，又带来了更优的性价比。

And so we you know, the business itself, I think it's great for customers because it gives customers choice and it gives them advantage price performance.

但长远来看，对我们自己也特别有利——想想我们现在投在资本开支上的钱，未来还有很多投资机会等着我们。

But it also is gonna be good for us long term because at our scale, like think about what we're investing in capital expenditure right now, I expect that there'll be investment opportunities for a long time.

规模上来之后，每年能帮我们省下几百亿美元的资本支出，还能提升好几个百分点的运营利润率，这对我们来说意义重大。

At scale, it will save us tens of billions of dollars of CapEx a year and hundreds of basis points in operating margin, which is a big deal for us too.

你说‘选择’，这点真的得让大伙儿明白。

When you say choice, it's important people understand.

我知道我可能太近了，看得太清楚，但NVIDIA往往是他们的另一个选项。

I know you can say I'm too close to it, but that NVIDIA is often the alternative.

不过你也一直是NVIDIA的优质客户。

And you remain an excellent customer of NVIDIA too.

是的

Yeah.

我们和英伟达有着深厚的合作伙伴关系。

We have a deep partnership with NVIDIA.

只要我还能预见，这种合作就会一直持续下去。

We will for as long as I can foresee.

我们非常尊重他们。

We have an immense amount of respect for them.

当然，总会有一些客户想在 AWS 上运行英伟达的产品，我们会继续把 AWS 打造成运行英伟达产品的最佳平台。

And, you know, we're gonna always have customers that wanna run NVIDIA and AWS, and we will continue to make AWS the best place to run NVIDIA.

没错。

And that's true.

而且我们也会有，

And we'll also have,

你

you

你知道，芯片业务做得很好，就是因为客户想要选择权。

know, a very good chips business, and that's because customers want choice.

每一种技术都是这样。

It's true in every technology.

数据库是这样，数据分析是这样，前沿模型是这样，芯片也不例外。

It was true in databases, it's true in analytics, it's true in frontier models, and it's true in chips.

所以，我们完全能同时把这两件事都做好，我……

So we'll be able to do both successfully, I

五家芯片公司。

five chip companies.

我觉得我们已经走在正确的路上了。

I I I think we're we're well on our way.

好，那我们先休息一下，待会儿再回来。

Okay, well we're gonna take a break here and we're come back.

但还有很多话题要聊。

But there's a lot to talk about.

等我们回来的时候，如果你们不介意，我想稍微聊点哲学。

Also, I'll get a little philosophical if you don't mind when we come back.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人成功过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不害怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓进取的女性，正在改变整个格局。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。

One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种不同的表现形式。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，就是得相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生就是

Life is

要简洁，想干大事，就得有大格局。

short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC《变革者与权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

每周二更新，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

广告前我采访了亚马逊的CEO安迪·贾西，因为这家公司可以说是全球最重要的企业之一。

Before the break, I spoke with Andy Jassy, the presidency of Amazon, because this is one of the most important companies in the world.

我们聊的内容太多，一集讲不完，现在继续深入理解亚马逊的核心理念。

There was more than we could cover in a single segment, so let's get right back into understand the ethos of of Amazon.

最好的方式，也许就是引用你信里说过的一句话。

Maybe the best way to do it is to say something that you said in your letter.

当其他公司都在远离乡村客户时，我们却在主动奔向他们。

While other companies have been backing away from rural customers, we've been running to them.

我觉得这正是我们降价、让每个人都能最快拿到东西的根本原因。

I think this is very much of what's going on in terms of lowering price, in terms of getting it so everybody can have stuff as fast as possible.

我只是想让你谈谈这个，因为别的公司根本没人像你们这样干。

And I I just want you to speak to it because it's it's not what every it's no one's doing what you're doing.

那话说回来，

How about Well,

服务农村客户成本更高，因为你的投入没法在人口密集区摊薄成本。

it's more expensive to try to service rural customers because your investments aren't able to be amortized across as dense a population.

所以，有时候服务农村客户确实更难。

And so it's harder sometimes to serve rural customers.

但现实是，现在这个国家乃至全世界，都存在明显的数字鸿沟。

But the reality is, you know, there is a digital divide in this country and in the world right now.

如果你住在农村，连网购商品都得等三天以上才能收到，这事儿想想真不合理。

And and if you look at to me, like, if you live in a rural area, the fact that you can't get items via the, you know, ecommerce in less than three days.

我觉得这不公平，用户体验也太差了。

You know, I I think it's an unfair and I think it's a bad customer experience.

所以我们决定砸了40亿美元，专门给农村客户建最后一公里配送网络。

And so, you know, we we've decided we invested $4,000,000,000 to build out a a last mile delivery network for rural customers.

就拿目前送到这些农村用户手中的当日达订单来说，今年截至目前的订单量已经比去年全年翻了一倍还多。

If you look at the amount of items that we're getting to them now same day, it's it's more than double already this year year to date versus last year.

而且我们所有站点的建设还没全部完成呢。

And we're we're still in the process of building out all the stations.

等全部建成后，我们还能把农村地区的配送速度提得更快，一两天就能送到，这和以前的配送体验比起来完全是天差地别。

And so we're gonna be able to get items to customers in rural areas so much faster inside a day or two which is a very different customer experience than what you could do before.

不光是配送，我觉得在网络连接方面也存在同样的问题，数字鸿沟确实是真实存在的。

I think the same is true around just the connectivity they have where there is a real digital divide.

那些咱们平时天天都在做的事，比如在线办公、上网课、网购或者线上娱乐，咱们早就习以为常了。

The things that you and I are used to doing every day that we take for granted doing business online or education online or shopping or entertainment.

但在很多农村地区，这些事根本没法实现。

Those things you can't do in a lot of rural communities.

那些地方连宽带都没有。

They they're without broadband connectivity.

全球还有几十亿人至今都用不上宽带。

There are billions of peoples around the world who don't have broadband connectivity.

所以如果我们能为他们提供这种网络连接——我们正在打造一颗叫亚马逊低轨卫星的卫星，

And so if we're able to make that if we're able to give them that connectivity with you know, we're building this low earth orbit satellite called Amazon LEO.

这将彻底改变农村地区人们的生活可能性。

That completely changes what's possible for people in rural areas.

没错，这确实是一笔不小的投资，但我们看待投资的角度是：每天都要让顾客的生活变得更美好、更轻松，而且我们看的是长远回报。

So we you know, yes, it's a meaningful investment, but the way we think about investments is we're trying to make customers' lives better and easier every day, and then we try to have a long time horizon how we think about it.

我们相信，只要长期坚持为农村顾客做好服务，让他们收货更快，

And we believe over a long period of time, if we do right by rural customers, we make it much faster than for them to get their items.

他们就会更频繁地在我们这儿购物。

They will shop with us much more frequently.

如果我们帮他们轻松获得网络连接，他们的生活、他们能做的事、他们居住的地方都会发生改变，而这些改变最终也会让我们受益。

And if we make it easy for them to get connectivity, it's gonna be you know, their their lives will change, and what they're able to do, where they live will change, and and that will benefit us too.

这背后其实有一种理念，就是普及化。

Well, there's an the ethos includes democratization.

我觉得这真的特别重要。

I think it's really important.

这还涉及到一个话题，当你成为第二大杂货商的时候。

It also includes something we can talk about when you're the second largest grocer.

每当我看到CPI上涨，我都特别难受。

And I it bothers me tremendously when I see the CPI number, and it's up.

可我却发现，我在亚马逊购物时，价格反而降了。

And I hear that the place I shop, Amazon, the prices are down.

你怎么解释这个矛盾？

How do you reconcile this?

你们是怎么把价格控制住的？

And how do you keep prices?

你们的整体价格其实是比去年低的，没错。

Your prices overall are down Yep.

相比去年。

Versus last year.

对。

Yep.

我们正经历一波通胀。

We have a bout of inflation.

人人都说利率要飙升了。

Everyone tells me it's gonna be said send interest rates skyrocket.

你们是怎么做到的？

How do you do it?

我们在亚马逊有个说法，用了快二十年了：降价容易，但能负担得起降价可就难多了。

Well, we have an expression that we've used for for almost a couple decades at Amazon that it's pretty easy to lower prices, but it's much harder to be able to afford to lower prices.

这话说得一点不假。

And it's really true.

所以如果你参加我们的会议，会发现我们花在两件事上的时间特别多：一是不断创新，二是琢磨怎么降低物流成本，好让咱们能持续给顾客低价。

And so we spend if if you were in our meetings, we spend a disproportionate amount of time a inventing and then b trying to figure out how we can lower our cost to serve inside our fulfillment network so that we can continue to keep prices low for customers.

具体来说，我们彻底重构了美国的区域配送网络。

So that takes the form of things like we've completely rearchitected our regional network in The US.

现在商品能更靠近消费者存放，运输距离也短多了。

So we get items to we're able to store items closer to end users so they travel shorter distances.

东西到得更快，这样服务客户也更便宜。

They get there quicker, and it's less expensive to serve customers that way.

我们又彻底重构了入仓网络，好让货物能更早地送到离客户更近的配送中心。

We've completely re architected our inbound network again to try and get items to more fulfillment centers closer to the end customer.

我们花了很多心思，琢磨怎么让客户能追加订单。

We spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to allow customers to add to their orders.

很多客户几乎每天都收到货，所以我们做了个‘追加订单’功能——你可以在已有未发货的订单里直接加东西，从界面看好像挺简单的。

We have a lot of customers who have items coming almost every And day to so we have this feature, add to order, where you can just add an item to an existing outstanding order, which seems easy enough from a UI perspective.

但你想想，订单已经在处理了，怎么还能把新东西塞进去，还保证一起发出去？

But think about the logistics of an order that you're already processing and then being able to get that item in the same order.

所以我们努力提高每个包裹的装货量，客户开的包裹少了，浪费也少了，对环境更好。

And so the work we do to get more units in each box, it's better for customers because they don't have to open as many packages and have environmental waste.

这不仅体验更爽、更快，顺带还帮我们省了钱。

It's just a much better, faster experience, and it happens to be more cost effective for us too.

你们在医疗领域也做了不少好事，比如处方药当天送达、一键医疗这些。

Now, you're also doing some great things in medical, including prescription same day, one medical.

我用过这个。

I've used that.

特别好用。

It's great.

我觉得真正让大多数美国人栽跟头、导致破产的，就是医疗问题。

I think that the thing that has really tripped up most Americans and has caused most bankruptcies is healthcare.

以后我能不能在你们这儿买一份医疗保险？

Is there any chance that one day I can buy a healthcare insurance policy with you?

我们现在还没把重点放在这块儿，吉姆。

Well, we're not focused on that part of it right now, Jim.

不过我跟你想法一样。

But I happen to agree with you.

我们花了很多心思去思考全球的医疗体验，尤其是美国，真的特别棘手。

We spent a lot of energy here thinking about just the health care experience around the world, particularly in The US, it's very challenging.

太让人头疼了。

It's very frustrating.

所以我们一开始聚焦在最贴近我们业务的领域——药房。

So we really started with the area that was closest to what we do, is really pharmacy.

你看过去几年药房的服务体验，现在在成千上万的城市，你当天就能拿到药，这真的太棒了。

And I think if you look at that pharmacy experience over the last couple years, it's such a good experience for To be able to get your pharmaceutical items same day in thousands of cities like you can.

能这样方便地拿到急需的药，简直是革命性的改变。

It is a game changer to be able to get your drugs that you need to use that way.

再想想初级诊疗，我敢说咱们的孙子辈根本没法相信，我们以前得提前一个月约医生，开车二十分钟过去，找停车位，前台等二十分钟，进屋再等二十分钟，最后医生才见你五分钟。

And then I think if you look at primary care, I think our grandkids are not going to believe that the way we used to do it was we'd make an appointment a month in advance, drive twenty minutes to the doctor, park, wait in the reception for twenty minutes, they'd show you into a room, you'd wait for the doctor for twenty minutes, and then they'd see you for five.

当然了。

Of course.

然后呢，

And then

还得再开二十分钟去拿药。

you drive twenty more minutes to the pharmacy.

这种体验真的太糟了，以后不会再这样了。

Like that experience is really, it's broken, it's not gonna be the case.