Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/12/26 封面

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/12/26

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/12/26

本集简介

聆听吉姆·克雷默为您拨开华尔街投资迷雾的个人指南,把握机遇、规避陷阱,唯一目标:助您赚钱。 Mad Money 免责声明 由Simplecast(AdsWizz公司旗下)提供支持。有关我们为广告目的收集和使用个人信息的详情,请访问 pcm.adswizz.com。

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7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest,带来重塑体育与娱乐未来的战略规划与创新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

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请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

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我的

My

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目标很简单,就是帮你赚钱。

mission is simple, to make you money.

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我在这里,为所有投资者创造公平的机会。

I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.

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总有一个牛市在某个地方等着你,我保证帮你找到它。

There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.

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现在就开始赚钱。

Money starts now.

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嘿,我是克莱默。

Hey, I'm Cramer.

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欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。

Welcome to Mad Money.

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欢迎来到克雷默世界。

Welcome to Cramerica.

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别人交朋友,我只想着怎么赚点钱。

Other people make friends, I'm just trying to make a little bit of money.

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我的工作不只是娱乐,更要让你学到东西,有事就给我打电话。

My job's not just to entertain, but to educate, to some teaching, call me.

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180743。

180743.

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在推特上关注我,吉姆·克雷默。

Tweet me, Jim Cramer.

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从来没有哪一家公司的首次公开募股,像埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX这样,让华尔街乃至普通投资者都如此着迷——就在今天中午前,它正式上市了。

Never has one initial public offering captivated the minds of Wall Street and perhaps Main Street as much as Elon Musk's SpaceX, which became a publicly traded stock right before noon today.

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承销商高盛和摩根表示,这次发行堪称教科书级别的操作,而伊朗可能达成和平协议的前景也起到了推动作用。

The underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan, said they put on a clinic about how to do a deal and helped by the possibility of a peace agreement with Iran.

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这次行情表现不错。

The session turned out to be a good one.

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道指上涨了354点,涨幅接近百分之零点五,纳指也涨了百分之零点三一。

Dow gaining 354 points as to be climbing point five percent and the Nasdaq advancing point 31%.

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当然。

Sure.

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有人觉得SpaceX股价被高估了。

Some called SpaceX overvalued.

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还有人嘲笑那些买家。

Others ridiculed the buyers.

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我?

Me?

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你听好了。

Listen.

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有马斯克,然后就是其他人。

There's Musk, and then there's everyone else.

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马斯克既有想法,也有执行力。

Musk has the ideas and the execution.

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历史上,跟他对着干从来都不是什么好策略。

Historically, betting against him has been a terrible strategy.

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跟着他赌呢?

Betting with him?

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喂。

Hey.

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为什么不呢?

Why the heck not?

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我都没想到他居然肯让我们跟着沾光。

I'm surprised he even lets us tag along.

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我觉得这笔交易可能会带来不少积极的影响。

I think this deal could have some real positive repercussions and implications.

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咱们去看看吧。

So let's go and see.

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咱们来看看对眼下局势的预测和应对计划。

Take a look at our game plan about what we think is going to happen now.

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首先,咱们得应对SpaceX交易带来的积极影响。

First, we're gonna have to deal with the positive fallout of the SpaceX deal.

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以前全是负面猜测,现在情况反转了。

So many negative thoughts.

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现在正面影响来了。

Now there's positive fallout.

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现在的银行办事可快了。

Bankers work fast these days.

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那些急需融资的超大规模企业,甚至Anthropic这样的公司,要是趁热打铁赶紧筹钱,我一点都不会意外。

It wouldn't shock me if we hear from some of those hyperscalers that need to raise money or even from, yes, Anthropic, which may wanna strike while the iron's hot and start raising some money now.

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这些公司都排着队等着合作呢。

These companies are all lined up to do business.

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我跟你保证。

Believe me.

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是的。

Yes.

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事情确实就是这样。

It really works that way.

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投资了Anthropic的人肯定会积极推动IPO,好赶紧套现。

The people who are invested in Anthropic will be agitating for a chance to ring the register with an IPO.

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没必要等。

No need to wait.

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咱们先等等看。

Let's just wait.

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咱们留意一下这方面的动静。

Let's look for that chatter.

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别忘了,微软、Meta、亚马逊也可能想融资,来覆盖他们的AI投入。

Remember, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, they may also wanna raise money to pay for their AI investments.

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看到SpaceX这么成功地融资后,我不确定他们能不能忍住不卖股票。

I don't know if they can resist selling stock after seeing how SpaceX played out so positively.

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对了,如果你想要参与Anthropic的这单投资,不妨问问你的券商,当初他们是怎么拿到SpaceX的投资机会的。

Hey, by the way, if you want a piece of the anthropic deal, try to figure out who got SpaceX from your brokerage.

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直接打个电话给你的券商,问问怎么才能更快地抢到下一轮投资机会,别拖了。

Just call your broker and ask what you can do to make it happen for the next deal sooner rather than later, please.

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他们会告诉你的。

They will tell you.

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和大家一样,我也希望伊朗的战争能尽快结束。

Now like everyone else, I'm hopeful that the war with Iran is coming to an end.

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到了周一,我们对这件事的了解就会比今晚多得多。

Come Monday, we'll know more about it than we do tonight.

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但我持怀疑态度,因为伊朗的强硬派显然不想要和平。

I'm skeptical as the hardliners in Iran clearly don't want peace.

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但如果我们真能实现和平,首先你要明白,降低通胀的过程会从油价暴跌开始。

But if we do get peace, the first thing you have to realize is the process toward lowering inflation will begin with a collapse in the price of oil.

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我知道很多人觉得通胀已经根深蒂固了。

I know a lot of people believe that inflation has become embedded.

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他们完全搞错了。

I think they're dead wrong.

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自从战争爆发以来,全世界一直在拼命增加石油产量。

All during this period since the war began, the world has frantically tried to produce more oil.

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你知道吗?

And you know what?

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真的在发生。

It's happening.

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你瞧。

Look.

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美国的石油产量正在增加,而委内瑞拉的产量也提升了百分之五十。

We have more coming out in The United States while oil production in Venezuela is up 50%.

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之前很多人都说这不可能做到。

Members people said that couldn't happen.

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加拿大很快就要把日产量提高多达二十万桶。

Canada will soon be lifting production perhaps as many as 200,000 barrels a day.

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这些加起来可不是小数目。

These all add up.

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说不定能增加一百万桶呢。

Maybe even do as much as a million barrels.

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这可太关键了。

That will matter.

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不过呢,这些政策是不会取消的。

Now look, they won't be repealed.

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也许表面上会看起来有所缓和。

They might look.

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一旦里穆鲁地区重新开放,新油的供应就没这么多了。

Once the state of Rimuru reopens, we're not gonna have as much new oil coming in.

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但我得说,我觉得通胀会明显回落,因为很多钻探公司都意识到,这真是个难得的好机会。

But I've gotta tell you, I think a big chunk of inflation is gonna come down just because so many drillers realized that they had a great opportunity here.

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如果你仔细看看通胀的传导链条,就会发现我们吃的很多东西,都是靠那些把燃油成本转嫁给消费者的运输公司运来的。

If you take a hard look at the inflation the inflation chain, you can see that many of the goods we eat are shipped by companies that put through fuel pass throughs.

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等油价下跌的影响逐步传导到整个系统后,这些措施就会被取消。

Those will be repealed when the decline in oil works its way through the system.

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我再次强调,通胀会大幅下降。

Again, I am calling for a dramatic decline in inflation.

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这周的企业财报都集中出来了。

Now corporate news is like the whole week.

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戴夫与巴斯特公司周一发布了财报。

Dave and Buster's reports Monday.

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这家公司二十年前被私有化,当时收购方觉得它被低估了,十二年前又重新上市,首秀非常成功。

This one which was taken private twenty years ago because the buyers thought it was undervalued, was then bought public twelve years ago to a successful debut.

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但股价一路跌到了每股12美元。

But the stocks come all the way down to $12 a change.

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这有什么意义呢?

Why bother?

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好吧。

Alright.

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总有人拦住我,问我怎么形成自己的看法。

People are always stopping me and ask me how I form my views.

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我看到了什么?

What do I see?

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我做了什么?

What do I do?

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Dave and Buster's公布季度财报后,会开一场电话会议。

Well, Dave and Buster's has a conference call after they report the quarter.

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里面全是关于消费者支出削减的线索。

It's chock full of hints about the cut the consumer.

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我的观点就是这么来的。

That's how I make my view.

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这才是真正的宏观视角。

That's the world view.

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不过说实话,关注它的唯一理由就在这儿,但我还得盯着。

It's really the only reason to pay attention to it though, but I gotta keep up with it.

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接下来,我坚信房地产市场的疲软其实和通胀密不可分,这也是我们为什么必须降息的原因。

Next, I'm adamant that the weakness in the housing market in the is really, you know, part and parcel with with inflation, why we need to cut rates.

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我们经济最大的问题就是住房供应严重不足,这个问题要解决起来难得多。

The the number one problem with our economy is we can't produce enough homes, and it's much harder to solve.

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我们建的房子太少了。

We don't build enough.

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现在利率这么高,而华尔街那些决策者还希望再加息一两次。

We have high interest rates in many of the shot callers in Wall Street even want another rate hike or two.

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但今天,佛罗里达州的优秀住宅开发商伦纳德公司公布了疲软的季度业绩,抱怨利率太高。

But today, Lenard, terrific home builder based in Florida reported a weak quarter in bemoaned rates.

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我完全能理解他们。

I don't blame them one bit.

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对住宅开发商来说,光是盖一批房子,现在的利率实在太高了。

Interest rates are simply too high for a home builder just by putting up a lot of houses.

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明白了。

Okay.

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我明白你的意思。

So I I get it.

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这有点像是先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。

It's a bit of a chicken and egg thing.

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我们想多建些房子,但要是利率太高,买家买不起,开发商根本不会动工。

We want to put up more homes, but they aren't gonna do it if they can't sell the homes because rates are too high.

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所以周二公布的住房开工数据对我而言意义重大。

That's why Tuesday's housing starts figure means so so much to me.

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如果数据表现疲软,就能给新任美联储主席凯文·莫尔斯提供有力依据,让他在周三首次主持会议时推动降息。

If we had a weak number that will give Kevin Morse, the new Fed chief, some ammunition to push for rate cuts down the road when he chairs his first meeting on Wednesday.

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我想那天早上公布的零售数据也可能会偏弱,这同样会支持降息。

I think we'll also see some weaker retail sales that morning again favoring a rate cut.

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正如我之前说的,很多人认为经济太强劲了,通胀这么高,必须加息。

As I mentioned, lots of people have been saying that the economy is too strong and we need to raise rates given the high level inflation.

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我觉得这些人简直是在做白日梦。

I think these people are dreaming.

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他们会发现自己太过悲观了。

They'll be revealed as way too pessimistic pessimistic.

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我预测情况会更糟,但这反而会推动周三降息的进程,因为经济的根本问题长期存在,而一旦我们和伊朗达成协议,通胀就会消退。

I predict worse will begin the process of setting us up for rate cuts on Wednesday because the underlying problems in the economy are persistent, but inflation will go away once we make a deal with the Iranians.

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真的会这样。

It really will.

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接下来是SOB——老滑头公司——举办的一场至关重要的分析师会议。

Next up, we've got a very crucial analyst meeting thrown by SOB, old slumberger.

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那是家石油巨头。

That that's the oil surface giant.

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我想知道,各国和企业是否意识到,像我们在委内瑞拉、美国,以及加拿大看到的那样,加大钻探投入是值得的。

I wanna know if countries and companies recognize that it's worth stepping up and drilling the way we see it in Venezuela, the way we see it in The US, the way they see it in Canada.

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没人比SOB更懂这个。

No one knows more about that than SOB.

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这又是一次实实在在的证明,能让我再添一笔:通胀确实正在下降。

It'll be another honest to god, it'll be another feather in my cap about how we're gonna a decline in inflation here.

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接下来,周四晚上会有大动静。

Then we have some real fireworks coming Thursday night.

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周四是纳斯达克100指数调整前最后一个交易日。

Thursday is the last trading day before the Nasdaq rebalances the Nasdaq 100.

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他们要加入火箭实验室、阿斯图拉实验室、泰瑞达、涅布斯和科瑞威,同时剔除维瑞思、康讯、因斯梅德、Zscaler和特许通信。

They're adding Rocket Lab, Astura Labs, Teradyne, Nebius, and CoreWave, and they're replacing Verisk, Cognizant, Insmed, Zscaler, and Charter Communications.

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这些指数成分股的变动都会带动市场波动。

Now these index admissions move things.

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我们还得留意,SpaceX很快就要被纳入纳斯达克100了。

And I think we should see we've got to keep keep track of the fact that SpaceX is gonna be coming into the Nasdaq 100 very soon.

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你知道吗?

And you know what?

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我觉得大家还是会继续买,因为都想搭上这班车。

I think people are gonna continue to buy it because they wanna play for this.

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顺便说一句,这事儿对Zscaler可不是什么好事。

Now this is missiles, a black mark on Zscaler, by the way.

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Zscaler 是一家软件即服务公司,这类公司最近在华尔街彻底失宠了。

Zscaler is a software as a service company, and those have fallen viciously out of favor of Wall Street.

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今天几乎所有的这类公司都跌了,Adobe 也不例外。

Almost every one of them was down today, including Adobe.

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你去看看 Adobe 到底发生了什么。

Just check about what happened to Adobe.

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他们昨晚刚发布了财报。

They reported last night.

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季度业绩让人失望。

It was a disappointing quarter.

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首席财务官离职了。

The CFO left.

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业绩指引也不乐观,股价根本抬不起来。

The forecast wasn't good, and the stock cannot lift.

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这事儿刚发生在 Adobe 换掉首席执行官之后。

And that comes on the heels of Adobe losing its CEO.

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全都特别特别难。

All very, very difficult.

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在周四开盘前,有两家公司我觉得挺吃力的,分别是克罗格和埃森哲。

Finally, before they open Thursday, we have two companies that I think are struggling, Kroger and Accenture.

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克罗格这家超市,每家店都面临成本上涨,不得不把部分费用转嫁给消费者。

Kroger, every supermarket, is getting hit with higher bills and has to pass some costs on to the consumer.

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但想把所有成本都转嫁出去太难了,所以利润空间会被不断压缩。

But it's too difficult to pass on all of them, so its margins will be shrinking.

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埃森哲这家咨询公司,今年股价暴跌了36%,主要是因为大家觉得它被OpenAI和Anthropic超越了。

Accenture, the consulting company has seen its stock fall a spectacularly terrible 36% for the year, largely because people believe that it's being out competed by OpenAI and Anthropic.

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这确实是真的。

And it's true.

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用Anthropic的Claude,你能完成很多事,可能就没必要花那么多钱请埃森哲了。

You can do a lot of things with Anthropic, with Claude, that might make it so you don't need to spend as much money on Accenture.

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今天SpaceX发射成功,这件事值得未来好多年去研究。

The success of today's placement of SpaceX is something to be studied for years.

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他们干得太漂亮了。

They nailed it.

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这样一来,也为其他公司上市铺平了道路。

And in doing so, they've created a path for many other companies to come public.

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这对市场来说是好事。

It's a win for the market.

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如果我们不能实现和平,或者如果我们实现了和平——抱歉,我意思是,这都不会停下来。

And if we don't get peace, and if we get peace, I'm sorry, I I it won't be stopped.

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你会看到更多交易出现。

You're gonna see a lot more deals.

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说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

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我今天一开始其实是看空的。

I indeed I was negative coming into today.

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我对这笔交易挺担心的。

I was worried about this deal.

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不过他们这次确实做对了,这能为市场营造出更有建设性的氛围。

They got it right though, and it can go a long way toward creating a far more constructive environment.

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但如果大额IPO一直不停,迟早我们会被这些股票压垮。

But if we keep seeing big IPOs, eventually, we'll be crushed under the weight of all that stock.

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希望他们能趁着夏天把上市节奏放慢一点。

Let's hope they pace them out over the summer.

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要是今天这个交易规模真有这么大,咱们都得先喘口气。

If today's huge deal, we need to catch our collective breaths.

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现在请连线肯塔基州的丹,丹,请说。

Let's go to Dan in Kentucky, please, Dan.

Speaker 2

嗨,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 2

谢谢你接听我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 2

我想再问一下关于礼来公司的事。

I'd like to ask you about Eli Lilly again.

Speaker 2

它的股价挺高的,不过今年说不定会拆股。

It's got a high share point price point, but maybe it'll split maybe this year.

Speaker 1

我不确定他们会不会拆股,但不得不说,利润正在不断出来。

I don't know if they're gonna split it, but I gotta tell you, the earnings are coming through.

Speaker 1

药品的销量也在持续增长。

The drugs are coming through.

Speaker 1

他们现在势头正猛。

They've got momentum.

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他们正在扩建好几座工厂,好满足GLP-1类药物的生产需求。

They've got build out of a lot of different factories so so they can produce all the GLP dash ones.

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我希望你在旅行信托基金里大量持有这只股票。

I want you to be a huge position for my travel trust.

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你别卖出这只股票。

I want you to stay in the stock.

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我觉得这真是个不错的选择。

I think it's a really good one.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下得州的保罗。

Let's go to Paul in Texas.

Speaker 1

保罗。

Paul.

Speaker 1

太棒了,吉姆。

Booyah, Jim.

Speaker 1

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

什么

What's

Speaker 3

情况?

up?

Speaker 3

我最近两三个月一直在关注一只股票。

I have a I have a stock that I've been watching for the last two or three months.

Speaker 3

过去一年里,它的股价从历史高点一路下滑,但最近有小幅回升,而且股息率有7%。

Now over the last year, it's been in a downtrend from its all time high, but it's taken a couple of ticks up, and it pays a 7% dividend.

Speaker 3

我只是在想,现在是不是该稍微建一点这个公司的仓位了。

And I'm just wondering if maybe this company would be a time to start taking a small position in.

Speaker 3

我关注的这家公司是Progressive,股票代码PGR。

And my company is Progressive, PGR.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我得说,这一板块现在压力挺大的。

I I gotta tell you that group is under a lot of pressure.

Speaker 1

我其实没怎么看那个收益率,但整个板块确实压力不小。

I I don't actually see that yield as it is, but the the the group's under a lot of pressure.

Speaker 1

我看到他们把Travelers的评级下调到了卖出。

I saw it downgrade to Travelers to sell.

Speaker 1

Travelers可是家非常稳健的公司。

Travelers pristine company.

Speaker 4

我注意到

I saw

Speaker 1

它把一些数据给拉高了。

it chubbed up some records.

Speaker 1

今天数字下调了。

It's cut numbers today.

Speaker 1

你别碰它。

I don't want you to touch it.

Speaker 1

当整个行业都在下调数字时,不管这家公司多优秀,它确实是一家好公司,也无济于事。

When you see number cuts in an entire industry, it doesn't matter how good this one company might be, and they're a good company.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下纽约的约翰。

Let's go to John in New York, please.

Speaker 1

约翰。

John.

Speaker 1

嗨,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 1

太棒了!

Booyah.

Speaker 1

谢谢您参加我的课程。

Thanks for taking Of my course.

Speaker 5

我想先告诉您,我出身于一个教育世家。

So I wanna start by just letting you know I come from a family of educators.

Speaker 5

我父亲就是一位大学教授。

And in fact, my dad was a college professor.

Speaker 5

因此,我对教学这份馈赠有着深深的敬意,而您恰恰拥有这份天赋。

So I've got a really deep appreciation for the gift of teaching, which is something that you absolutely have.

Speaker 1

哦,谢谢您。

Oh, thank you.

Speaker 1

非常感谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 5

作为一名新手投资者,您能把投资的基本原理讲得这么清楚,真的让我受益匪浅。

As a as a newer investor, your ability to break down the basics of investing has really been a wonderful gift for me.

Speaker 5

再次感谢您。

So thank you.

Speaker 5

谢谢。

Thank

Speaker 1

不客气。

you.

Speaker 1

这本来就是我们该做的。

I mean, that's what this is about.

Speaker 1

我只是把东西讲得明白一点。

I just break it down.

Speaker 1

我仔细观察。

I look.

Speaker 1

我会尽量让内容更有趣一些。

I tried to make it as interesting as possible.

Speaker 1

大家其实都在找人讲清楚。

I mean, people are look.

Speaker 1

你知道教育者真正做的是什么。

You know you know what an educator really does.

Speaker 1

他能处理特别复杂的话题,拆解得清清楚楚,让内容容易理解,又不会过度简化。

Takes topics really hard, breaks it down, makes it easy so that someone who not oversimplify, but makes it so that it can be understood.

Speaker 1

谢谢你这么说。

So thank you for those kind words.

Speaker 1

谢谢你。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

我能怎么帮您?

How can I help you?

Speaker 5

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 5

我打电话是想问问,关于什么时候、怎么处理某只股票的收益的问题。

So I'm calling about the issue of when and how to trim gains from a particular stock.

Speaker 5

就我来说,这只股票是Astera Labs,没错。

And in my case, that stock is Astera Labs, a l Right.

Speaker 1

这只股票的表现简直太惊人了。

Now this stock is out of this world.

Speaker 1

如果你每天来我办公室,你肯定会说:天哪。

And if you were in my office every day, you would say, oh my god.

Speaker 1

这Astera到底是什么东西?

What is this Astera?

Speaker 1

它是做什么的?

What does it do?

Speaker 1

它到底干啥的?

What does it do?

Speaker 1

它怎么运作的?

What do it?

Speaker 1

你现在的做法是这样:

Here's what you're do.

Speaker 1

先拿掉百分之二十五的收益。

You take 25% off.

Speaker 1

这差不多已经覆盖了你的全部成本,然后就让剩下的继续涨。

It's probably your almost your entire cost basis and then you let it run.

Speaker 1

但如果你能打七五折,那我就不担心什么零实验室的抛物线了。

But if you take 25% off, then I'm not worried about the parabola that is as zero labs.

Speaker 1

不过你得先做这个动作。

Make that move though.

Speaker 1

那样感觉会好很多。

It will feel a lot better.

Speaker 1

我得承认,一开始我对这笔交易是持怀疑态度的。

And I admit I was negative coming to this deal.

Speaker 1

我当时很担心,但他们确实做得很到位。

I was very concerned, but they did it right.

Speaker 1

我压根没觉得他们能把所有事情都搞定。

I didn't think that they could pull off everything.

Speaker 1

这事儿太难了。

It was so difficult.

Speaker 1

给高盛点个赞。

Hats off Goldman.

Speaker 1

向摩根士丹利致敬。

Hats off Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 1

向埃隆·马斯克致敬。

Hats off Elon Musk.

Speaker 1

今晚所有人都赚到了钱。

All made money tonight.

Speaker 1

正如我刚才说的,太空公司已经上市了。

Space filing public as I just said.

Speaker 1

我有些想法想分享。

I've got a few thoughts.

Speaker 1

我想把这次历史性的IPO放在更大的背景里看。

I'm putting the historic IPO into context.

Speaker 1

市场现在都盯着SpaceX,但我更关注那些真正出类拔萃的其他公司。

Then the market is focused on SpaceX by self included, but I am eyeing some other companies that are out of this world.

Speaker 1

我正在回顾2026年那些与SpaceX无关的高调上市案例。

I'm looking back on the high profile public debuts of 2026 away from SpaceX.

Speaker 1

继续关注克拉默的节目。

So stay with Cramer.

Speaker 0

别错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一秒钟。

Don't miss a second of mad money.

Speaker 0

在X上关注吉姆·克拉默。

Follow at Jim Cramer on x.

Speaker 0

有什么问题吗?

Have a question?

Speaker 0

给克拉默发推文。

Tweet Cramer.

Speaker 0

使用#疯狂提及这个标签。

Hashtag mad mentions.

Speaker 0

可以给madmoney@CNBC.com发邮件,或者拨打180743联系我们。

Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.

Speaker 0

错过了什么内容吗?

Missed something?

Speaker 0

前往 madmoney.cnbc.com。

Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC Sports 和 Boardroom 将亮相 Fanatics Fest,探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念与战略布局。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

请前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

Speaker 1

现在入手SpaceX的股票还来得及吗?

Is it too late to get into the stock of SpaceX?

Speaker 1

这得看情况。

Depends.

Speaker 1

如果你是想赚快钱,我建议你另找目标。

You're looking for short term gains, I suggest looking elsewhere.

Speaker 1

但如果你愿意把它当作一种长期投资,不是短期,甚至也不是中期的投机,而是对太空探索未来的长期押注,那我完全支持。

But if you're willing to look at this as a different kind of stock, not a short, even medium term investment, but a long term call on space exploration, then you've got my blessing.

Speaker 1

我小时候,这种事只能指望NASA,现在全靠马斯克了。

When I was a kid, this would have been NASA, but now it's all Musk.

Speaker 1

如果你接受这一点,哪怕没有中期回报,也完全可以选择持有这只股票。

If you acknowledge that, it's perfectly fine to decide you wanna be in the stock, even if there's no intermediate term term.

Speaker 1

如果股价下跌,我觉得更该加仓,因为长期的上涨空间可能根本无法想象。

And if it comes down, I think you should buy more because the long term upside is conceivably unfathomable.

Speaker 1

埃隆·马斯克脑子里装着的那些完整构想。

The full panoply of ideas in the head of Elon Musk.

Speaker 1

我知道他卷入政治后变得更受争议了,但这个人确实能赚钱。

I know he's become a more controversial figure since he got involved in politics, but the man's a moneymaker.

Speaker 1

今天一整天都听说,SpaceX的估值可能高得离谱。

Now for much of the day, heard that SpaceX may be outrageously overvalued.

Speaker 1

按传统指标来看,我没法否认这一点。

Going by traditional metrics, I can't argue with that.

Speaker 1

但买的人一大堆,他们或许会错,但我相信他们已经权衡过风险,也清楚可能面临长期亏损。

However, there are a ton of buyers, and and while they can be wrong, I think they've considered the risk and recognize that there could be losses as far as the eye can see.

Speaker 1

我站在他们这边。

I'm with them.

Speaker 1

我相信SpaceX最终会迎来大幅上涨。

I believe that eventually SpaceX will break out to the upside.

Speaker 1

但我真说不准这事儿啥时候会发生。

I just have no idea when that will happen.

Speaker 1

在这期间,如果股价下跌,反而是个机会。

In the interim, if the stock comes down, that's an opportunity.

Speaker 1

说实话,我以前对特斯拉没这种感觉,是后来局势明朗了,我才意识到,从我转变态度、转为看多之后,我们几乎抓住了全部96%的涨幅。

By the way, I didn't feel like this about Tesla until much later when the coast was clear, and we caught 96% of the entire move up since I changed my mind and went positive.

Speaker 1

既然说完了那些唱衰的人,咱们来聊聊这次IPO的赢家。

Now that I've dispensed with the naysayers, let's talk about some winners from this IPO.

Speaker 1

首先是高盛和摩根士丹利,他们把这次发行做得非常到位。

First, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley handled this deal perfectly.

Speaker 1

股票开盘价相对于发行价很合理,既没高到让人疯狂抛售,也没低到引发恐慌。

The stock opened at a reasonable price versus the IPO price, not so high that it will encourage flipping, not so low that is to foment panic.

Speaker 1

考虑到马斯克要求的股东结构如此多元,能做到这样真是了不起。

That's amazing considering the disparate nature of the new shareholder base as mandated by Musk.

Speaker 1

管理得真出色。

Fantastic managers.

Speaker 1

干得漂亮,各位。

Well played, ladies and gentlemen.

Speaker 1

给他们点个赞。

Kudos to them.

Speaker 1

第二,我对公司里的员工深感钦佩。

Second, I am in awe of those who work at the company.

Speaker 1

一线员工都成了百万富翁。

Line workers have become billion who become millionaires.

Speaker 1

这简直太惊人了。

I mean, come on.

Speaker 1

太棒了。

That's fabulous.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

还有埃隆·马斯克,世界上第一位万亿富翁。

And then there's Elon Musk, the world's first trillionaire.

Speaker 1

这位多面人物,其争议性堪比自强盗资本家时代以来的任何工业巨头。

This man of so many faces is about as controversial as any industrial since the robber baron era.

Speaker 1

不过今天,我想暂且抛开这些争议,只说一句:他多年来做得实在太出色了,让我们在太空领域遥遥领先,还推出了史上第一款价格合理的电视和卫星天线。

Today though, I think we block all that out and just say that he's done a fabulous job over many years to make us first in space while giving us the first reasonably priced voice and cable satellite dish ever.

Speaker 1

哦,对了,我还没提呢,这东西质量还更好。

Oh, and did I mention it's better quality?

Speaker 1

这些事对我来说,是个人情感上的事。

Now this stuff is personal.

Speaker 1

在我看来,SpaceX上市的那一刻,就跟当年人类登月一样令人激动。

From my point of view, the SpaceX IPO felt just like when we put a man on the moon.

Speaker 1

你们大多数人可能都没经历过那时候的场景。

Most of you aren't old enough to remember what that was like back then.

Speaker 1

当时我们正和俄罗斯争夺全球主导权,媒体却说我们在每一个领域都被他们压着打。

We've been in a race against Russia for global supremacy, and the press had us losing to them on every single front.

Speaker 1

然后我们登上了月球,那种自豪感油然而生,我们终于意识到,我们不是一群笨蛋在跟一群圣人较劲。

And then we landed on the moon, a surge of pride, a recognition that we weren't a nation of bozos competing against a nation of Jesus.

Speaker 1

现在,我对中国的感受也是这样。

These days, I feel the same way about China.

Speaker 1

几乎每篇关于中国的文章,都会让你觉得他们是个更认真的国家。

It's almost impossible to read an article about China without getting the sense that they're simply a more serious country.

Speaker 1

在很多方面,我们已经落后了,落后于机器人、廉价的自动驾驶电动车、先进的武器系统。

In many ways, we've fallen behind robots, cheap self driving electric cars, advanced weaponry.

Speaker 1

就在这时,埃隆·马斯克出现了,他在太空竞赛中击败了中国人,还拿到了足够完成我们连想都不敢想的项目的资金。

Then along comes Elon Musk, who's winning the space race against the Chinese and just got the money he needs to complete projects we haven't even imagined yet.

Speaker 1

所以我的感受,就是骄傲。

That's why my emotion is one of pride.

Speaker 1

虽然我每天在主流媒体上读到的,都说我们是一群失败者,但在太空领域,我们不是。

We may be a bunch of losers as I read every day in the mainstream media, but not when it comes to space.

Speaker 1

谢谢你,埃隆。

Thanks, Elon.

Speaker 1

干得漂亮。

Well done.

Speaker 1

广告后回来继续《Hand Money》。

Hand Money's back after the break.

Speaker 0

接下来,你错过了今天SpaceX的IPO吗?

Coming up, struck out on today's SpaceX IPO?

Speaker 0

别担心。

Have no fear.

Speaker 0

克拉默要分享他最看好的太空相关替代股票。

Cramer's revealing his favorite alternative space related stocks.

Speaker 0

接下来。

Next.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest,探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

Speaker 1

SpaceX上市后首日股价就涨了19%,现在咱们来聊聊对比吧,毕竟其他太空概念股票都比它便宜多了。

Now that SpaceX has come public and shot up 19% on its first day trade, let's talk comparisons because any other space play is much cheaper than this one.

Speaker 1

今天大家都抛售所有太空类股票,转头去买埃隆·马斯克那个简单又厉害的公司,所以这些股全跌了。

They all sold off today as people sold all things space so they could swap into Elon Musk's Simple, simple, Incredible operation.

Speaker 1

我的天啊,

My, my,

Speaker 3

我的天啊,

my, my,

Speaker 1

我明白。

I get it.

Speaker 1

SpaceX确实是大家的首选,而且在IPO之前,整个太空板块已经涨了一大波了。

SpaceX is what everyone wants, and the space co world already had a gigantic run the months leading up to the IPO.

Speaker 1

但如果你真信埃隆·马斯克,就该认真听他说的:未来最大的价值将来自人工智能、机器人和航天飞行,这些领域最终会远远超过其他所有行业。

But if you believe in Elon Musk, you should take him seriously when he says that the overwhelming majority of future value comes from artificial intelligence, robotics, and spaceflight, with these groups eventually dwarfing every other industry.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得还是该配一点太空板块,但不是每个人都愿意为SpaceX付出这么高的价格。

So I think it's worth having some space exposure, and not everyone's willing to pay up for SpaceX.

Speaker 1

我们恰好持有

We happen to

Speaker 3

不少股票,

have a

Speaker 1

自从那笔交易完成以来,这些股票都跌了不少。

lot of stocks that are down right now since that deal has occurred.

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 1

有一个名字总在我脑子里冒出来,有点冷门。

One name that keeps coming back to me is a little abscruced.

Speaker 1

叫SES。

It's called SES.

Speaker 1

SES。

SES.

Speaker 1

是一家总部在卢森堡的卫星频谱公司。

That's the Luxembourg based satellite spectrum company.

Speaker 1

SES是少数几家上市的卫星频谱公司之一。

SES is one of the few publicly traded satellite spectrum plays.

Speaker 1

价格也不算贵。

It's not terribly expensive.

Speaker 1

可惜它只在巴黎和卢森堡交易。

Unfortunately, it only trades in Paris and Luxembourg.

Speaker 1

我一般不建议投资美国以外的交易所。

I don't typically recommend investing outside The US exchanges.

Speaker 1

但我觉得这个值得提一下,至少让你看看市场上还有些什么。

But I think this one's worth highlighting, if only just to show you what's out there.

Speaker 1

SCS就更直接了。

SCS is much more direct.

Speaker 1

去年收购了Intelsat之后,SCS现在拥有大约120颗卫星,包括地球静止轨道和中地球轨道的,还有庞大的地面网络和宝贵的无线频谱资源。

After its acquisition of Intelsat last year, SCS has roughly a 120 satellites, some geostationary, some in medium earth orbit, as well as major ground networks and valuable bands of wireless spectrum.

Speaker 1

地球静止轨道卫星始终固定在地球上方的某个位置,特别适合广播覆盖和各种政府用途。

Geostationary satellites stay fixed above one part of the planet, making them very useful for broadcast wide area connectivity or all kinds of government applications.

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Speaker 1

中地球轨道卫星离地球更近一些。

Medium earth orbit satellites sit closer to the planet.

Speaker 1

它们在数据传输上表现更好,延迟也更低。

They give you better performance for data and lower latency.

Speaker 1

速度更快。

They're faster.

Speaker 1

SES 去年的营收大约是30亿美元。

SEC did about $3,000,000,000 of revenue last year.

Speaker 1

其中网络部门贡献了大部分收入,主要来自机上Wi-Fi和移动业务的大幅增长。

That their networks division is the lion's share of the business driven by in flight Wi Fi and a big jump in mobility.

Speaker 1

他们的政府业务则得益于军方和主权国家的通信合同。

Their government division grew from military and sovereign communications contracts.

Speaker 1

虽然SES因为收购Intelsat背上了不少债务,但这也让公司在飞机、船员、船舶、国防客户和全球网络都急需更好连接的今天,变得更有规模和影响力。

Now, SES has a lot of debt for the Intelsat acquisition, but it gives the company much more scale and more relevance at a time when planes, crew, ships, defense customers, and global networks all want better connectivity.

Speaker 1

你现在坐任何一架航班都能感受到这种需求。

You can see that demand on any flight now.

Speaker 1

我们知道SpaceX的星链业务非常出色。

We know SpaceX's Starling business is amazing.

Speaker 1

市场需求是存在的。

The appetite's here.

Speaker 1

SCS有能力参与竞争。

SCS has the ability to compete.

Speaker 1

把SCS的卫星业务和他们的频谱资产价值结合起来,我觉得这支股票的估值相当不错。

When you combine SCS's satellite business with their value of their spectrum assets, I think the stocks, you know, represents pretty darn good value here.

Speaker 1

如果你住在欧洲,或者你的经纪商能提供SCS的股票,我觉得现在是个不错的入手时机。

If you happen to live in Europe or see maybe if you can get it from your broker, SCS, I like it here.

Speaker 1

当然,我们谈的是航天领域,风险是难免的。

Of course, we're talking about space, so it's risky.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

资本支出非常高。

Capital expenditures are high.

Speaker 1

债务负担是实实在在的。

Debt burden is real.

Speaker 1

传统媒体业务正在下滑。

Old media business declining.

Speaker 1

像星链和亚马逊的柯伊伯这样的低地球轨道星座,现在都成了真正的竞争对手。

Low Earth orbit constellations like Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper, which is now LEO, are legitimate competitive threats.

Speaker 1

SES 仍然更像一家传统卫星公司,努力证明自己的资产值得被当作战略基础设施来估值。

SES still more of a legacy satellite company that's trying to prove its assets deserve to be valued like strategic infrastructure.

Speaker 1

但以现在的股价来看,市场似乎给 SES 的认可度很低。

But at this valuation, I think the market may be giving SES very little credit.

Speaker 1

可惜的是,巴黎的市场总是喜欢挑毛病。

Unfortunately, again, markets in Paris kick the tires.

Speaker 1

接下来是火箭实验室,股票代码 RKLB。

Next up is Rocket Lab, RKLB.

Speaker 1

这是一家广为人知、备受青睐的太空股。

Now this is a well known and well loved space stock.

Speaker 1

它的价值已经不再被忽视了,市场认为火箭实验室是一家一站式服务商。

It's not undiscovered anymore in the valuation reflects that Rocket Lab is a one stop shop.

Speaker 1

它既制造发射到太空的火箭,也生产抵达轨道后运行的卫星。

It builds the rockets that fly to space and the satellites that operate once they get there.

Speaker 1

就说它刚入选了纳斯达克100指数吧。

Just say it joined the Nasdaq 100.

Speaker 1

但就连这个消息,也没能扭转股价11%的下跌趋势。

But even that was enough to pop up the stock that's dropped 11%.

Speaker 1

归根结底,是因为它在为SpaceX提供资金支持。

Again, it's because it's a source of funds for SpaceX.

Speaker 1

目前,航天系统部门贡献了公司绝大部分收入,主要得益于几份大型政府制造合同。

Right now, Space Systems generates the lion's share of the company's revenue due to some massive prime manufacturing contracts.

Speaker 1

他们为客户提供单个卫星部件,并定制建造航天器。

They make individual satellite components and build custom spacecraft for clients.

Speaker 1

它的标志性小型运载火箭电子号,已经发展成一个稳定可靠的近地轨道小卫星发射平台。

Electron, its signature small lift orbital rocket, has matured into a reliable platform for launching small satellites.

Speaker 1

去年,火箭实验室完成了二十多次发射。

Rocket Lab achieved more than 20 launches last year.

Speaker 1

今年有更多公司计划开展更多发射任务。

Companies on track for even more launches this year.

Speaker 1

发射这件事可没那么容易。

Launches are hard to do.

Speaker 1

同时,他们还有另一个平台。

At the same time, they have this other platform.

Speaker 1

叫Haste,H-A-S-T-E,军方用它来测试超音速载荷。

It's called Haste, h a s t e, which that's the military uses for supersonic test payloads.

Speaker 1

这让火箭实验室进入了国防预算的领域,这里面的商机可不小。

That gives rocket lab exposure to the defense budget, and there's a lot of meat in there.

Speaker 1

利润空间也很大。

Lots of fat too.

Speaker 1

咱们为啥不叫它弹珠呢?

Why don't we call it marbles?

Speaker 1

接下来是Nutri,这是公司下一代中型运载火箭,有望帮助火箭实验室进入更主流的商业和国家安全发射市场。

Then there's Nutri, the company's next generation medium lift rocket that could push Rocket Lab into more mainstream commercial and national security launches.

Speaker 1

话说回来,虽然它的股价比SpaceX便宜,但依然相当昂贵。

That said, while the stock's cheaper than SpaceX, it's still pretty darn expensive.

Speaker 1

目前股价是营收的65倍,不是盈利,是营收。

Trading at 65 times sales, not earnings, sales.

Speaker 1

你要为上个季度高达64%的增长付出高昂代价。

You have to pay up for the 64% growth delivered in the latest latest quarter.

Speaker 1

考虑到过去十二个月股价已经上涨了近300%,现在完全没有必要追高买入。

Now given that the stock's still up nearly 300% over the past twelve months, there is no reason to chase this one at all.

Speaker 1

虽然火箭实验室是布局太空基础设施最干净的选择,但我认为,不如等股价回调得更明显些再入场,机会会更好。

While Rocket Lab is the cleanest way to play space infrastructure, I think you can get a much better entry point if you just wait for more of a pullback.

Speaker 1

接下来是行星实验室。

Next up, Planet Labs.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

这个公司完全是关于从太空获取数据的。

Now this one's all about data from space.

Speaker 1

Planet Labs 运营着一支地球观测卫星群,向政府和商业客户销售影像、分析和情报服务。

Planet Labs operates a fleet of earth observe observation satellites and sells imagery and analytics and intelligence to both governments and to commercial customers.

Speaker 1

这些卫星每天都能覆盖全球每一个角落。

These satellites can cover the entire world every twenty four hours.

Speaker 1

当然,如果靠人工处理,要分析这么多数据几乎是不可能的。

Of course, if we're using human labor, it's very difficult to process all that data.

Speaker 1

但随着人工智能的发展,Planet Labs 的价值突然大幅提升,所以他们不断推出新的分析工具。

But with the rise of AI, Planet Labs is suddenly a lot more valuable, which is why they keep launching new analytics tools.

Speaker 1

客户要的不只是照片。

Customers don't just want pictures.

Speaker 1

他们要的是答案。

They want answers.

Speaker 1

而且他们不想每天花时间去翻几百万张图片找答案。

They and they want them without having to look through millions of images every single day.

Speaker 1

现在他们能获得这些成果了,这正是Planet Labs的价值所在,也解释了为什么过去十二个月它的股价飙升了超过470%。

Now they can get that with which is what Planet Labs what it's why the stocks rallied more than 470 over the past twelve months.

Speaker 1

Planet最新公布的财报充分说明了这一点。

Planet's latest results tell the story.

Speaker 1

营收同比增长了42%。

Revenue was up 42% year over year.

Speaker 1

国防与情报业务的增长超过了65%。

Defense and intelligence grew more than 65%.

Speaker 1

未履行的履约义务增长了81%。

The remaining performance obligation was up 81%.

Speaker 1

他们的待执行订单增加了72%。

And their backlog increased by 72%.

Speaker 1

这些数字可不小啊,各位。

Those are big numbers people.

Speaker 1

这表明市场需求真实存在,尤其是来自政府承包商的需求。

And they show that there's real demand here, especially from government contractors.

Speaker 1

但Planet Labs也不便宜,就算经历了今天这波下跌。

But Planet Labs is not cheap either, even after today's beat down.

Speaker 1

今年这轮上涨后,股价市销率大概在26倍左右。

After this run this year, the stock trades at around 26 times sales.

Speaker 1

虽然没Rocket Labs那么贵,但增长也没那么亮眼。

That's not as expensive as Rocket Labs, but the growth isn't as good either.

Speaker 1

它确实值得讨论,但在这个价位上,不值得盲目追高。

It belongs to the conversation, but it's not a stock you should chase blindly at these levels.

Speaker 1

归根结底,没有第二个SpaceX。

In the end, there's no SpaceX clone.

Speaker 1

这家公司独一无二,但你也可以看看SES这种拥有传统卫星资产的公司,还有EchoStar,它们同样拥有卫星和复杂的频谱资源,还搭配了DISH和Boost Mobile这样的消费品牌。

The company is one of one, but you have legacy satellite assets in SES and a similar type of satellite and spectrum of complexity in EchoStar, which pairs satellite assets with consumer brands like DISH and Boost Mobile.

Speaker 1

Earth和Rocket Labs都拥有高质量的太空基础设施。

You have high quality spaced infrastructure in Earth and Rocket Labs.

Speaker 1

Planet Labs则提供地球观测数据。

You have Earth observation data with Planet Labs.

Speaker 1

还有ASD Space Mobile,他们正在打造一个基于太空的长期蜂窝宽带网络,合作方包括AT&T和Verizon这样的运营商。

You have ASD Space Mobile, which is building a a space based secular I I would say cellular broadband network with carriers like ATT and Verizon.

Speaker 1

还有像Redwire、Momentous这样的投机性标的,纯粹是炒概念的。

You have meme and moonshot place like Redwire, Momentous.

Speaker 1

还有亚马逊,虽然它的太空业务潜力巨大,但被埋在了这家全球最大公司之一的深处。

And you have Amazon where the space angle is vast, but buried inside one of the largest companies in the world.

Speaker 1

所以总结一下。

So here's the bottom line.

Speaker 1

今天太空股全线下跌,就是为了给SpaceX的股票让路,让资金集中买入。

For the space stocks, today was the day where everything else got sold off so that people could buy the stock of SpaceX.

Speaker 1

但也许这反而给我们创造了机会。

But maybe that gives us an opportunity.

Speaker 1

如果SpaceX一直像全球前六大公司那样交易,投资者就会持续寻找其他可公开交易的太空概念股。

If SpaceX keeps trading like one of the six biggest companies in the world, investors will keep hunting for publicly traded space plays.

Speaker 1

可惜的是,大多数这类股票可能还得再回调一波,但像Rocket Lab和Planet Labs这样的公司,基本面还不错,下跌时值得留意。

Unfortunately, most of these probably have more pulling back to do, but some of them are good enough that they're worth watching on the way down, like Rocket Lab or Planet Labs.

Speaker 1

如果你有耐心,我觉得迟早能等到一个不错的买入时机。

If you're patient, I bet you can eventually get a great entry point to do some buy.

Speaker 1

买吧。

Buy.

Speaker 1

丹尼尔,来自威斯康星。

Daniel, Wisconsin.

Speaker 1

丹尼尔。

Daniel.

Speaker 6

我们是谁?

Who we are?

Speaker 6

我是来自威斯康星普莱森特普雷里杰里米·霍尔。

Jeremy Hall from Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin.

Speaker 1

你最近怎么样,朋友?

And how are you doing, partner?

Speaker 6

我过得非常好。

Oh, I'm doing wonderful.

Speaker 6

今晚的主角是我。

I'm the party tonight.

Speaker 1

所以各位。

So everyone.

Speaker 7

嗨。

Hey.

Speaker 7

如果你在

If you work

Speaker 6

为我工作的话,我给你加薪,老兄。

for me, I'd give you a raise, buddy.

Speaker 4

你给我

You give

Speaker 1

加薪?

me a raise?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

不过你是我老板吗?

The other but you are are you my boss?

Speaker 1

我这儿可有不少老板。

I got a lot of bosses here.

Speaker 1

你该去跟另一位老板说这事,不过你先说吧。

The the other other boy you should talk to the other boss about that, but go ahead.

Speaker 1

怎么了?

What's up?

Speaker 6

嘿。

Hey.

Speaker 6

戴尔股价自三月底以来涨了155%。

Dell's up a 155% since the end of March.

Speaker 6

我该买、卖,还是持有?

Should I buy, sell, or hold?

Speaker 1

我觉得你最好再等等。

You know, you wanna hold on there.

Speaker 1

我觉得这只股票特别棒。

I think it's a terrific stock.

Speaker 1

事实上,要是它再跌得比现在更多,我昨天还在看呢。

As a matter of fact, if it pulled back any more than it has like, I was looking at it yesterday.

Speaker 1

我当时就说,天哪。

I said, jeez.

Speaker 1

这东西跌得真快,现在简直是绝佳的买入机会。

You know, this thing has really come down very quickly, and it's just a terrific buy.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,迈克尔·戴尔干得非常出色。

Michael Dell, by the way, is doing fantastic work.

Speaker 1

我正在帮他做这件事。

I'm helping him with this.

Speaker 1

我知道可能灯光不太对,你也不能这么操作,本来也不该这么做,但就剩22天了。

I know it's probably not lit right, and you can't do it, and you're not supposed to do this, but it's only twenty two more days.

Speaker 1

我的朋友布拉德·格什也在做同样的事。

My friend Brad Gersh is doing this too.

Speaker 1

我们都想帮一把。

We all wanna help out.

Speaker 1

迈克尔·戴尔在这方面可能是捐得最多的之一。

Michael Dell is probably one of the biggest givers to that.

Speaker 1

说买戴尔股票、相信迈克尔·戴尔,这事儿再清楚不过了。

It's an easy call to say to buy Dell and to believe in Michael Dell.

Speaker 1

咱们现在连线佛罗里达的约翰吧?

How about we go to John in Florida?

Speaker 1

约翰。

John.

Speaker 2

吉米,吉米,吉米,那只喜欢吉姆·克雷默和英伟达的蓝马。

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy, blue horse who loves Jim Cramer and Nvidia.

Speaker 2

天哪。

Wow.

Speaker 2

我想

I wanna

Speaker 3

想问你一下

ask you a

Speaker 2

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

吉姆,公司完成一笔八百亿美元的股票回购,外界是怎么知道的?

Jim, how does the world know when a company completes an $80,000,000,000 buyback?

Speaker 2

如果公司要回购十万亿,股息能涨到一美元吗?

And if the company is going to 10,000,000,000,000, can the dividend go to a dollar?

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

没错。

Yes.

Speaker 1

当然。

Absolutely.

Speaker 1

你看。

Look.

Speaker 1

我觉得我看看,那个

I I think I look at And the the

Speaker 2

公司现在的情况,我该不该在500美元一股的时候买入AMD?

company today, should I buy AMD at $500 a share?

Speaker 1

我看过了。

I look.

Speaker 1

我也不太看好AMD。

I didn't like AMD too.

Speaker 1

我对显卡领域有点偏爱,但最近根本没什么起色。

I I'm partial in video, which has done absolutely nothing of late.

Speaker 1

不过,丽莎,你谈的都是些优秀的企业。

But, you you Lisa, you're talking about great companies.

Speaker 1

你谈的都是些优秀的企业。

You're talking about great companies.

Speaker 1

目前我最看好英伟达,不过AMD也真的很棒。

Right now, my favorite is NVIDIA, but a AMD is fantastic.

Speaker 1

你告诉我你买了那支股票的时候,我觉得这事儿也太棒了。

When you told me you bought that, I'd say that's terrific too.

Speaker 1

好吧。

Alright.

Speaker 1

今天所有太空概念股都被抛售,大家纷纷跑去买SpaceX。

Now today, all the space stocks got sold so people could buy SpaceX.

Speaker 1

所以我心想,咱们不如把其他几家也好好看看。

So I thought we should look at all of them.

Speaker 1

但如果你有耐心,我相信这些其他太空公司迟早会给你一个不错的入场机会。

But if you're patient, I bet you can eventually get a great entry point in some of these other space plays.

Speaker 1

还有更多内容,包括我对最近几场非SpaceX上市公司的分析,我们之前在节目里也聊过。

Much more money at including my analysis of some recent non SpaceX IPOs that we profiled on the show.

Speaker 1

今天我对这家新晋两千亿美元的上市公司感触特别深,想跟你分享一下,其中还有一份纯粹的自豪感。

Then I've been feeling a lot of emotions today with regard to this new $2,000,000,000,000 public company, and I wanted to share them with you, including one that is just plain old pride.

Speaker 1

我打算回望一下历史,把今天的这个里程碑放在更大的背景下来看。

I'm taking a look back in history and putting today's milestone in context.

Speaker 1

当然,今晚的闪电环节由油市消息开场。

Of course, oil calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round.

Speaker 1

继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

Speaker 1

今天我们见证了历史上最大的IPO,我想提醒你,SpaceX并不是我们眼下唯一值得关注的新上市公司。

As we witnessed the largest IPO in history today, I want to remind you that SpaceX is not the only newly public company we're really dealing with here.

Speaker 1

今年我就推荐过将近十家刚上市的公司。

There are nearly a dozen recent IPOs that I've recommended just this year.

Speaker 1

今晚我和洛伊德要带你们一一回顾这些公司,做个后续跟进,看看它们现在表现如何。

Lloyd and I tonight, I wanna walk you through them, kinda do a little follow-up, see how they're doing now.

Speaker 1

比如今年一月底,我提到过EquipmentShare.com,这是一家做设备租赁、还自研了专业软件平台的公司。

Back at the end of January, for instance, I highlighted equipmentshare.com, which is an equipment rental company with its own sophisticated software platform.

Speaker 1

但这家公司特别的地方在于,它打造了一个轻资产的商业模式。

What sets this company apart, though, is that they've come up with a capital light business model.

Speaker 1

他们先买新设备,卖给机构投资者,再从这些投资者手里租回来,转手租给自己的客户。

They buy new equipment, sell it to institutional investors, then lease it back from those investors before renting it out to their own customers.

Speaker 1

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 1

这和许多零售商处理房地产的方式一样。

It's the same way many retailers handle real estate.

Speaker 1

这只股票开局不错,我推荐时持谨慎乐观态度。

The stock had a nice start to it, and I was cautiously optimistic when I recommended it.

Speaker 1

结果发现,我当时太乐观了。

Well, turns out that was too bullish.

Speaker 1

Equipmentshare的股价已经从我推荐时的近30美元跌到了现在的近20美元。

Equipment share has now fallen from just under $30 where I covered it to just under $20.

Speaker 1

不过说公平点,我推荐这只股票时正好赶上战争爆发,我觉得这确实影响了它。

Now in fairness, I recommended this one right before the wind of war, and and I think that that really got it.

Speaker 1

这导致油价和利率都大幅飙升。

It caused a big spike in both oil and interest rates.

Speaker 1

即便如此,在同一时期,克雷默的最爱United Rentals还是上涨了20%。

Still, even with the war, Cramer fave United Rentals still managed to rally 20% over that same period.

Speaker 1

这确实是我一个大胆的判断。

It's big call by me.

Speaker 1

话说回来,一个月前这家设备公司公布的财报远超预期,管理层还提到需求达到了前所未有的水平。

For what it's worth, equipment share reported a strong beat and raise quarter a month ago, where management talked about seeing unprecedented level of demand.

Speaker 1

所以我还是打算继续持有。

So I'm inclined to stick with it.

Speaker 1

这种股票确实会越跌越便宜,而它现在已经跌了不少了。

This is the kind of stock that does indeed get cheaper as it goes lower, and it's gonna gonna it's gone a lot lower.

Speaker 1

不过话说回来,内部人士的禁售期将在7月22日到期,这很可能又会带来一波回调。

Then again, the lockup on insider selling expires in July 22, and that's likely to give you another pullback.

Speaker 1

其次,今年三月初,我推荐过福根动力解决方案这家公司,他们生产数据中心、电网和各类高耗能工业设施用的电力分配设备。

Now second, in early March, I recommended Forgent Power Solutions as a maker of electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid, and all sorts of energy intensive industrial facilities.

Speaker 1

我当时是在这家公司刚上市一个月后推荐的,之所以看好,是因为它的股价相比主要竞争对手维蒂斯有明显折价,而维蒂斯正是戴夫·科迪担任董事长的那家公司。

Now I covered this one in early March, about a month after it came public, and I told you I liked it because it was trading at a sizable discount to its closest competitor, which is Vertiv, the one that Dave Cody's chairman of.

Speaker 1

从那以后,福根股价表现惊人,从34美元涨到了59美元,涨幅高达75%。

Since then, Fortune became an incredible performer, rallied from $34 to $59, 75% gain.

Speaker 1

多亏了几个非常亮眼的季度表现。

Thanks to a couple of very strong quarters.

Speaker 1

事实上,Fortune在五月底进行了二次增发,这对一家新上市的公司来说通常是不祥之兆。

In fact, Fortune did a secondary offering at the end of May, often the kiss of death for a newly public company.

Speaker 1

但股价一路持续上涨,根本停不下来。

But the starting, it it it just kept rallying.

Speaker 1

不过在当前价位,我建议你们可以获利了结了,这波操作简直是本垒打,最好赶在内部人士禁售期结束前出手,那是在八月初。

At these levels though, you got my blessing ring the registers, been a home run ideally before the lockup on insider selling in this one, which is ends in early August.

Speaker 1

第三,四月初我提到过一家无人机软件公司,叫Swarmer,它三月上市时股价是5美元,等我分析时已经涨到了26美元。

Third, in early April, I highlighted a drone software company, it's called Swarmer, that had come public in March at $5, only for the stock to soar to $26 by the time I covered it.

Speaker 1

这故事确实很吸引人,但公司营收几乎可以忽略不计,我实在很难大力推荐这种已经热到发烫的股票。

This was an exciting story, but I found it just hard to aggressively recommend a red hot stock like this when the underlying company barely had any revenue.

Speaker 1

结果证明,是我想象力不够。

Turns out I didn't have enough imagination.

Speaker 1

当时26美元的Swarmer,如今已经涨到了45美元左右。

The Swimmer zoomed from $26 back then to $45 and change today.

Speaker 1

不过几天前,股价从55美元大幅回落了。

Although it's pulled back hard from $55 a couple days ago.

Speaker 1

我觉得,像这种表现好的股票,很多都是因为投资者想为SpaceX交易筹钱而抛售了。

I think like many winners, it's fallen victim to selling by people who wanted to raise funds for the SpaceX deal.

Speaker 1

再说,Swarmer上个季度的收入才刚超过2000万美元,我到现在还是很难推荐这只股票。第四,四月中旬,我推荐了Madison Air Solutions。

And look, given that Swarmer brought in a little more than $20 in revenue from the latest quarter, I still find it really hard to recommend the stock right Fourth, in mid April, I recommended Madison Air Solutions.

Speaker 1

这个公司很简单,M A I R,我现在都管它叫‘东镇市长’。

Now this one's simple, m a I r, or as I now call it, mayor of Easttown.

Speaker 1

这昵称挺贴切,配得上这么一家好公司。

That's a great TV show nickname for a great company.

Speaker 1

Madison Air主营数据中心的气流与散热,同时涉足半导体制造,这两个领域现在最火了。

Madison Air's airflow and cooling play for the data center, but also its exposure semiconductor manufacturing is the two hottest areas there are.

Speaker 1

我当时就告诉你们,这股票该买。

I told you it was a buy right then and there.

Speaker 1

上市后,股价从31.75美元一路涨到了将近40美元。

It came public, and the stocks now rallied from $31.75 just under 40.

Speaker 1

上个月麦迪逊空气公布财报时,业绩远超预期,全年展望也十分强劲。

When Madison Air reported last month, they delivered much better than expected numbers with a very strong full year forecast.

Speaker 1

考虑到股价上周从高点回落了大约10%,我觉得现在正是入手的好时机。

Given that the stocks pulled back about 10% from its highs last week, I think you'd buy it right here, right now.

Speaker 1

第五,4月17日我推荐过一家叫AAVEX的公司,是一家由私募股权支持的无人机制造商,和美国军方签了大单。

Fifth, on April 17, I recommended a stock called AAVEX, which is a private equity backed drone maker that has a big contract with the US military.

Speaker 1

虽然无人机显然是未来战争的趋势,但这只股票的走势却像过山车一样。

While the drones are clearly the future of warfare, this stock's been more of a roller coaster.

Speaker 1

我提到它的时候股价是26美元,到五月底最高冲到了40美元。

It was trading at 26 when I talked about it, and it zoomed to $40 at its highs in late May.

Speaker 1

但不幸的是,AVEX(A-E-V-E-X)趁这次上涨又增发了800万股,考虑到他们IPO时总共才卖了1600万股,这份额可不小。

But unfortunately, AVEX, A E V E X, AVEX, used that rally to sell another 8,000,000 shares, which is a big chunk of stock given that they only sold 16,000,000 shares in the IPO.

Speaker 1

你有没有发现,这些增发案都有个共同点?

Should notice the theme of all these secondaries?

Speaker 1

大家都是在趁机撤退。

People are just kind of bailing.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

现在这么多新股供应进来,把股价压到了二十美元,今天也是这样。

Now all of that new supply has pulled this one down to $20 and changes of today.

Speaker 1

但我还是觉得这里的基本面非常出色。

I still think the fundamental story here is terrific.

Speaker 1

AEVEX上个月交出了一份亮眼的季报,但新股大量涌入,让股价很难像以前那样暴涨。

AEVEX reported a great quarter last month, but the flood of new supply makes it harder for the stock to rally like crazy.

Speaker 1

四月底的时候,我提到过X Energy。

Near the end of April, I talked about X Energy.

Speaker 1

我一直有在跟进这只股票。

I've been following up on this one.

Speaker 1

我真的很看好它。

I kinda really like it.

Speaker 1

它一直在研发小型模块化核反应堆,计划把技术授权给客户,由客户自行承担建设核电站的风险。

It's been designing small modular nuclear reactors with plans to licenses technology to customers who can then build nuclear plants at their own risk.

Speaker 1

等这些电厂投入运营后,X Energy 计划向客户出售经过特殊处理的铀。

Once those plants are up and running, X Energy wants to sell them specially processed uranium.

Speaker 1

这商业模式挺有意思的。

Cool business model.

Speaker 1

但我得提醒你,尽管我很看好这个故事,但它还是个非常投机的项目。

But I warn you that as much as I like the story, it's a very speculative operation.

Speaker 1

当然,主要是因为真正起作用还得等到2032年。

Of course, it's mostly because things won't really start kicking in till 2032.

Speaker 1

我说了,你要是买,只能用亏了也不心疼的钱。

I say you should only buy it with money you can afford to lose.

Speaker 1

现在你明白我为啥说那堆白菜了吧?X Energy 的股价从31块跌到了19块。

And now you can see why I threw in those cabbages X Energy has pulled back from 31 to 19.

Speaker 1

现在股价比上市时还低4块,可实际上公司没发生啥大变化。

It's now $4 below where it came public, even though not much has changed here.

Speaker 1

如果你也像我一样看好核能这个方向,你知道该怎么想吗?

Now if you do like the nuclear power story like I do, you know what?

Speaker 1

我会支持它。

I'll bless it.

Speaker 1

你可以买一些。

You can buy some.

Speaker 1

大约一个月前,我给我的投资标的Hawkeye 360投了赞成票,这是一家太空与国防公司,拥有30颗卫星,为全球各国政府收集情报信号。

Next, about a month ago, I gave my hawk my blessing to Hawkeye three sixty, which is a space and defense company, 30 satellites that it uses to gather signals in intelligence for the governments around the world.

Speaker 1

这又是一个让我措手不及的案子,公司没什么重大消息,股价却从33块跌到了24块。

Now this is another one that blew up in my face, pulling back from 33 to 24 in a very little company specific news.

Speaker 1

尽管分析师对这家公司普遍看涨,但我认为,这次大家抛售卫星股,其实是为了筹钱去买SpaceX。

Even though the analysts are pretty darn bullish about this one, I think this is a case where people have sold the satellite stocks again in order to raise funds to buy SpaceX.

Speaker 1

这笔交易搅动了整个市场。

Everything's been roiled by this deal.

Speaker 1

Hawkeye不是个例。

Hawkeye's not alone here.

Speaker 1

Planet Labs的股价也从五月底的高点跌了40%。

Planet Labs is also down 40% from its late May high.

Speaker 1

这个也是我的持仓。

Now this one's my bed too.

Speaker 1

我就知道SpaceX的IPO会吸走市场其他股票的资金,Hawkeye360就是个明显的目标。

I knew the SpaceX IPO would suck in money from the rest of the market and Hawkeye three sixty was an obvious target.

Speaker 1

最后说说Cerebras Systems,这家公司生产超大型高速半导体,专门处理AI推理任务,本该是视频领域的竞争对手。

Finally, let's talk about Cerebras Systems, which makes enormous ultra fast semiconductors to handle AI inference workloads supposed to be a competitor in video.

Speaker 1

在今天之前,它是今年最大的IPO,上市首日就暴涨了68%。

It was the biggest IPO of the year before today, and it jumped 68% right out of the gate.

Speaker 1

我早就跟你说过,这个股价高得离谱。

I told you the stock was way too expensive at those levels.

Speaker 1

生意是好生意,但价格实在没法接受。

Great business, but I couldn't justify the price.

Speaker 1

好在我没去碰它。

And I am glad I didn't try.

Speaker 1

我跟你说它太贵的时候,Cerebras股价是311美元。

Cerebras was at $311 when I told you it was way too pricey.

Speaker 1

别碰它。

Stay away.

Speaker 1

现在股价跌到了214,差不多蒸发了三分之一的价值。

And now it's come down to 214 losing nearly a third of its value.

Speaker 1

就我看来,Cerebras已经成了一个典型的反面教材。

Cerebras has become a cautionary tale as far as I'm I'm concerned.

Speaker 1

如果你在上市第一天就买入,那可真是被套惨了。

If you bought this thing after opening the first day of trading, you've been crushed.

Speaker 1

就算现在回调了,这股票对我来说还是太贵。

Even after the pullback, this one's too rich for me.

Speaker 1

让我想起了Figma。

Reminds me of Figma.

Speaker 1

我只希望SpaceX别走同样的下坡路,我觉得不会,毕竟买家多,而且定价比Cerebras合理多了。

I just hope SpaceX doesn't follow the same downward trajectory, and I don't think it will because there are so many buyers, and it was priced much better than Cerebras.

Speaker 1

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

Speaker 1

SpaceX一上市就引爆了话题,我们平台上的人都在讨论它。

SpaceX has caught fire right out of the gate, and it's all anyone wants to talk about on our plan.

Speaker 1

但在新上市公司的圈子里,别忘了你还有不少其他选择。

But even within the world of new IPOs, remember that you've got plenty of other options.

Speaker 1

广告之后,我们继续谈这笔钱的去向。

That money is back after the break.

Speaker 0

接下来登场的是华尔街反应最快的人,我们要借助大家的力量来考验他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

Speaker 0

接下来进入闪电问答环节。

Bring on the lightning round next.

Speaker 1

这是Rock的首次亮相。

Rock first ever.

Speaker 1

接着White Rock就上场了。

Is then the White Rock comes over.

Speaker 1

来自佛罗里达的Jeff。

Jeff in Florida.

Speaker 1

杰夫,说吧。

Jeff, hit me.

Speaker 2

太棒了,克拉默。

Booyah, Cramer.

Speaker 2

太棒了,杰夫。

Booyah, Jeff.

Speaker 2

克拉默,你在吗?

Cramer, are you there?

Speaker 1

当然在。

You bet I am.

Speaker 1

来吧,杰夫,说说看。

Give me hit me, Jeff.

Speaker 1

快点。

Come on.

Speaker 1

走起。

Let's go.

Speaker 1

走吧。

Let's go.

Speaker 1

我们

Let's

Speaker 2

走。

go.

Speaker 2

星座能源,c

Constellation Energy, c

Speaker 1

e g。

e g.

Speaker 1

天哪。

Oh, man.

Speaker 1

星座。

Constellation.

Speaker 7

它已经

It's come

Speaker 1

跌得太厉害了。

down way too far.

Speaker 1

往下走。

Come down.

Speaker 1

不行。

No.

Speaker 1

不行。

No.

Speaker 1

不行。

No.

Speaker 1

不行。

No.

Speaker 1

这得往回退一点。

This has been back it up.

Speaker 1

往回退。

Back it up.

Speaker 1

已经降了不少了。

It's come down a lot.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下罗德岛的鲍勃。

Let's go to Bob in Rhode Island.

Speaker 1

鲍勃。

Bob.

Speaker 7

吉米·周。

Jimmy Cho.

Speaker 1

嘿。

Yo.

Speaker 1

嘿。

Yo.

Speaker 1

你最近怎么样?

How are you?

Speaker 1

还行吧。

Doing alright.

Speaker 1

你呢,老大?

How about you, chief?

Speaker 7

最小的州,却出了最大的金条,罗德岛。

The biggest bullion from the littlest state, Rhode Island.

Speaker 7

感谢你为我们这些小投资者所做的一切。

Appreciate all you do for us little investors.

Speaker 1

我也很感激。

I appreciate it.

Speaker 1

谢谢你这么夸我。

Thank you for those kind of Morris.

Speaker 1

最近怎么样?

What's up?

Speaker 7

嘿,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 7

大概六个月前,你分析过这只股票,那时候它的价格在1.01到1.30美元之间波动。

About six months ago, you covered this stock, which at the time was trading in the range of, like, $1.30 to $1.01 45.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 7

你提到过,低于1.45美元就值得考虑。

You mentioned it was worth consideration south of $1.45.

Speaker 7

我是在1.30美元买的,挺合适的。

I bought it at $1.30, which is good.

Speaker 7

今天这只股票收盘价大概在2.50美元左右。

The stock today settled in around $2.50.

Speaker 7

问题是,现在该卖了、继续持有,还是加仓Credo Technology?

The question is, is it time to ring the register, continue to hold, or buy more CRDO, Credo Technology?

Speaker 1

Credo这公司真的太棒了。

Credo is just so good.

Speaker 1

它是一家网络设备公司。

It's a networking company.

Speaker 1

就拿着别动。

Just hold on to it.

Speaker 1

太惊人了。

It's amazing.

Speaker 1

不妨稍微想想你的成本线。

Maybe think a little bit of your cost base.

Speaker 1

尽量把成本线降一降,这股票涨得太猛了。

Get try to get get your cost bases out a little bit because this thing's been on a parabolic move.

Speaker 1

真是家了不起的公司。

But what a great company.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下佛罗里达的丹尼尔。

Let's go to Daniel in Florida.

Speaker 1

丹。

Dan.

Speaker 4

我们是吉姆。

We are Jim

Speaker 3

正在观看。

watching.

Speaker 3

我一直在关注Manpower集团,现在正打算出手。

I've been watching the Manpower group for a while now and I'm thinking of pulling the trigger.

Speaker 3

我就是想问问。

And I was just wondering

Speaker 1

说真的,我对Manpower没什么特别的见解。

what are You know what, I have no edge in manpower.

Speaker 1

这股票从来没给我带来过什么好收益。

It's never really been a great win for me.

Speaker 1

我不是说这里的股息不好。

I mean, don't mind paychecks down here.

Speaker 1

它的股息率不错,我觉得还有可能反弹。

It's got a good yield and I think that can make a comeback.

Speaker 1

但Manpower这股票,我一直没觉得有吸引力。

But manpower has never done it for me.

Speaker 1

抱歉啊。

I'm sorry.

Speaker 1

那里没什么增长空间。

Not a lot of growth there.

Speaker 1

我们来听听密歇根的詹姆斯怎么说。

Let's go to James in Michigan.

Speaker 1

詹姆斯。

James.

Speaker 2

吉姆公司的股价只有十年前的几分之一,管理层正在重组业务并裁员。

Jim stock trades at a fraction fraction of where it was a decade ago with management restructuring the business and reducing the head.

Speaker 2

你觉得这是个反转机会,还是只是价值陷阱?

Do you see this as a turnaround opportunity or a value?

Speaker 1

不是。

No.

Speaker 1

这分明是个价值陷阱。

I mean, this is value trap.

Speaker 1

我真的这么认为。

I really do think.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,这里头肯定有什么不对劲。

I mean, there's just something going on here.

Speaker 1

我可是盯着它看了很久。

I studied it for a very long time.

Speaker 1

它根本没有任何增长。

It does not have any growth.

Speaker 1

我一点都不想碰它。

I don't want it.

Speaker 1

我们接下来连线科罗拉多的卡罗尔。

Let's go to in Colorado and Carol.

Speaker 5

我和我丈夫跟着您学习了二十多年,一直特别享受这个圈子。

Jim my husband and I have learned from you for twenty more years and loving being in the

Speaker 1

俱乐部。

club.

Speaker 1

您。

You.

Speaker 1

你太棒了。

You're terrific.

Speaker 1

你下周得去发表一场重要演讲。

You got to be at a big speech next week.

Speaker 1

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

我能怎么帮您?

How can I help?

Speaker 5

我持有这只股票已经超过六年了,税后账户里已经有可观的收益,现在该买、卖,还是继续持有凯登设计?

Having owned this stock for six plus years and having significant gain in the taxable account, Should we buy, sell or keep holding Cadence design?

Speaker 1

凯登设计建议持有,如果价格下跌,就可以买入。

Cadence is a hold and if it comes down, it's a buy.

Speaker 1

顺便说一下,这家公司以前是卢克·布雷坦在管,表现简直无可挑剔。

This is a company by the way, the Luke Brutan used to run and it is sensational.

Speaker 1

我特别喜欢。

I love it.

Speaker 1

我们之前请过他们。

And we've had them on.

Speaker 1

他们都是特别聪明的人。

They're real smart guys.

Speaker 1

女士们,闪电环节到此结束。

And that ladies have a conclusion of the lightning round.

Speaker 0

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

Speaker 0

接下来,克拉默将开放电话连线。

Coming up, Cramer is opening the phone lines.

Speaker 0

准备好你最关心的市场问题。

Get your biggest market questions ready.

Speaker 0

接下来把话筒交给你们。

We're turning the mic over to you next.

Speaker 1

目前市场正处于历史高位,但过去几周,科技股出现了大幅回调,整个市场波动加剧,而像SpaceX这样的大型IPO终于登上华尔街的舞台,引发热议。

Markets are at all time highs right now, but over the last couple of weeks, we've seen big pullback in tech, increasing volatility all across the tape, then massive IPOs like SpaceX finally hit the Wall Street fashion show and make waves.

Speaker 1

今年还有更多要来,这时候当投资者真不容易。

And with more on the way this year, it's a tricky time to be an investor.

Speaker 1

有时候好,有时候糟。

Some days good, some days bad.

Speaker 1

所以今晚,我们退一步,听听来自Cramerica观众们的问题。

And that's why tonight, we're gonna take a step back and feel some questions from the voices of Cramerica.

Speaker 1

我们开放热线,确保大家能应对市场可能出现的任何情况。

We're opening the phone lines to make sure you're prepared for whatever the market might bring.

Speaker 1

我先接来自德克萨斯的内森。

I'm gonna start first with Nathan in Texas.

Speaker 1

内森,说吧。

Nathan.

Speaker 5

嗨,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 5

我长期持有价值股,同时也做短线交易,投资覆盖了AI基础设施的整个链条——从电力、芯片、硬件到模型和应用。

I'm a long time value holder, but I also I'm an active swing trader, and I'm concentrated across the full AI infrastructure stack from power, chips, infrastructure, models, apps.

Speaker 5

我手头留着现金,等着那场迟早会来的调整。

I've got dry powder ready for what feels like an inevitable correction.

Speaker 5

我的问题是关于顺序的。

My question is about sequencing.

Speaker 5

哪一层最先下跌?你会把资金投到哪里?

Which layer dips first, and where would you deploy?

Speaker 1

最先下跌的是Vertiv这一层。

The layer that's been dipping first is the Vertiv layer.

Speaker 1

今天我听了我们频道上Dave Cody和Kelly的对话。

And I was listening to Dave Cody today on our network to talk to Kelly.

Speaker 1

我得说,他好像是Vertiv的董事长。

And I've gotta tell you, I think he's chairman of Vertiv.

Speaker 1

我就直说了,这一层最先跌,也是最值得入手的。

I'm I'm just gonna say that's the first layer and that's the best layer.

Speaker 1

你应该优先考虑这里。

That's where you wanna be.

Speaker 1

我觉得这才是你应该追求的方向。

I think that that's what you ought to go for.

Speaker 1

戴夫今天讲的故事真不错。

Boy, Dave told a good story today.

Speaker 1

确实讲得很好。

He really did.

Speaker 1

我觉得这个才是我建议你选的。

And I think that that's the one I'd like you to go with.

Speaker 1

恭喜你取得的所有成就。

And congratulations on all your success.

Speaker 1

我很欣赏你正在做的所有事情。

I love all the stuff you're up to.

Speaker 1

接下来,我们连线一下内华达的比尔。

Next, let's go to Bill in Nevada.

Speaker 1

比尔。

Bill.

Speaker 1

你好。

Hello.

Speaker 1

比尔,我是吉姆。

Bill, it's Jim.

Speaker 1

最近怎么样?

What's going on?

Speaker 8

哦,嗨,吉姆。

Oh, hi, Jim.

Speaker 8

我收入不高,主要靠社会保障。

I'm I'm low income, strong Social Security.

Speaker 8

过去几年,我存了大概两万七千美元。

And last few years, I've, saved up about $27,000.

Speaker 8

现在这笔钱都放在银行里,买的是定期存款。

And right now, I've got it in bank secure or CDs,

Speaker 2

而且

and

Speaker 8

但收入也没多少。

but not making a whole lot.

Speaker 8

现在能拿到将近4%,对定期存款来说已经不错了,不过我想着 maybe 能找到个更好的选择。

Getting almost 4%, which is not too bad for so for CDs, but I thought maybe there might be something a little bit better.

Speaker 8

但是

But

Speaker 1

我们可以提升一下收益。

We can step it up.

Speaker 1

我来告诉你我们怎么做。

I'll tell you what we're gonna do.

Speaker 1

我们去投资能源转移合伙人公司。

You know, we're gonna go to energy transfer partners.

Speaker 1

那能给你7%的回报。

That gives you seven.

Speaker 1

表现一直很不错。

It's been really good.

Speaker 1

以前啊,我经常跟CEO较劲,因为他们把债务削减得太厉害了。

You know, the know, the old days I did I I tussled with the CEO because they're taking down too much debt.

Speaker 1

后来他们总算停了这种做法。

They kinda stopped that.

Speaker 1

现在他们的表现真的很不错。

They're doing real good.

Speaker 1

另外还有一个,我知道国内塑料原料严重短缺,所以我推荐你关注企业产品合作伙伴,股息率5.91%。

And then the second one, because I know that there's a big plastic shortage in this country, I'm gonna recommend enterprise product partners, shields 5.91.

Speaker 1

你把这两只放在一起,就能拿到6.5%的收益率,还附带增长潜力。

So you put those two on, you had a six and a half percent yield with some growth.

Speaker 1

这才是最适合你的选择。

That's the best course for you.

Speaker 1

我真心希望你能这么操作。

I really do want you to do that.

Speaker 1

不仅能赚到钱,还能有不错的收入,前景也很可观。

You'll pick up money and you'll make some and you got possibilities, some nice income.

Speaker 1

如果你错过了这些,我也会写文章讲怎么在任何市场里赚钱。

If you miss those, you just I do write about them and how to make money in any market.

Speaker 1

接下来我们来看看,是内华达的比尔吗?

Now we're gonna go to is it Bill in Nevada?

Speaker 1

比尔?

Bill?

Speaker 1

应该是肖恩吧。

Think it's Sean.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 4

不是。

No.

Speaker 4

是李。

It's Lee.

Speaker 1

李·华盛顿。

Lee Washington.

Speaker 1

嘿,李,最近怎么样?

What's up, Lee?

Speaker 4

吉姆,你最近还好吗?

How you doing, Jim?

Speaker 4

看了你这么多年来的节目,终于能和你聊天,真是太好了。

It's great to speak with you after watching the show after your after all these years.

Speaker 1

哦,谢谢你。

Oh, thank you.

Speaker 1

很高兴你来了。

I'm glad you're here.

Speaker 1

很高兴你来了。

I'm glad you're here.

Speaker 1

最近咋样?

What's going on?

Speaker 4

其实我最近在Adobe这件事上搞砸了。

So what's going on is I really dropped the ball on Adobe.

Speaker 4

我通常都会说,哎呀。

I usually get, like Oh.

Speaker 4

我一般都会设止损点。

I usually set up, you know, stop losses.

Speaker 1

没错。

But Right.

Speaker 4

这东西今年一直都在直线下跌,很明显。

This thing's been a free fall, obviously, all year.

Speaker 4

我有个两部分的问题。

And I have two part question.

Speaker 4

第一,你觉得在中期前景里,有什么能扭转局面、让股价回升吗?还是说,我只能等某个明显的转折点?

One is, do you see anything in the in the, I I would say, medium range future that could turn the narrative around and pick the stock stock up, or should I wait for some sort of meaningful balance just

Speaker 5

没有。

to No.

Speaker 1

没有。

No.

Speaker 1

没有。

No.

Speaker 1

首席财务官刚辞职,去马维尔科技了。

The CFO just quit to go to Marvell Tech.

Speaker 1

首席执行官也已经辞职了。

The CEO has resigned.

Speaker 1

那个季度的实际情况,远没有表面看起来那么好。

There were many aspects of that quarter that weren't nearly as good as it looks.

Speaker 1

今天早上我刚给《街头快讯》做了一次详细分析。

I did a big rundown of it this morning for squawk on the street.

Speaker 1

股价跌了42%,那又怎样。

I would be what's down 42%.

Speaker 1

这根本不重要。

That doesn't matter.

Speaker 1

关键是,这家公司股价估值高达820亿美元,但说实话,它最多也就值600亿美元。

The fact is that the stock is valued at 82,000,000,000, and it probably is worth, I'd say, maybe maybe 60,000,000,000 at the most.

Speaker 1

它确实有些不错的业务,但长期来看一直在下滑,我不建议你持有。

It's got some good businesses, but it's been secular decline, and I don't want you in it.

Speaker 1

也许吧,股价真有可能从2.04美元反弹到2.20美元。

And maybe, sure, maybe it would bounce from $2.00 4 to $2.20.

Speaker 1

这儿我不能马虎对待。

I can't fool around here.

Speaker 1

我不看好这只股票。

I don't like the stock.

Speaker 1

我知道那儿有不少不错的人。

I I know that there's some really nice people there.

Speaker 1

我其实挺过意不去的,因为我说话这么直接。

I feel bad that I'm just so cut and dried about it.

Speaker 1

但这一季度根本看不出他们有什么起色,他们好像觉得自己干得不错,或者想让我们这么以为。

But there was nothing about this quarter that they were they seem to think they're doing well or they're trying to tell us they're doing well.

Speaker 1

但我们都清楚,那种经常性收入增长放缓的现象明摆着,这种情况下你绝对不能进去。

But we all know when we see that kind of recurring revenue slowdown that was definitely there and obvious, you can't be there.

Speaker 1

所以我们得说,看好Adobe。

So we're gonna have to say go Adobe.

Speaker 1

接下来连线加州的肖恩。

Let's go to Sean in California.

Speaker 1

肖恩,你好。

Sean.

Speaker 5

嗨,吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

Speaker 5

节目做得真棒。

Great show,

Speaker 4

感谢你所做的一切。

and thank you for all you do.

Speaker 4

由于SpaceX计划在2027年底发射首批太空数据中心卫星,

Given that SpaceX is due to my pleasure.

Speaker 5

我想问问你,太空数据中心会对内存芯片股和供应短缺产生什么影响?

Given that SpaceX is due to launch its first test data center satellites near the end of twenty twenty seven, I'm calling to ask your thoughts on how data centers in space will impact memory chip stocks and the supply shortage.

Speaker 5

再次感谢。

Thank you again.

Speaker 1

我不这么认为,等它们商业化的时候,我觉得应该不会缺货了,毕竟AMAT已经在全力以赴了。

Well, I don't think they will because by the time that they're commercial, I think we think that will probably not be a shortage because remember, AMAT is doing its best.

Speaker 1

Lam Research也在拼命努力。

So is Lam Research doing the best.

Speaker 1

如果你想参与这个领域,直接买 SpaceX 的股票就行了,现在压根儿没别人在做这个。

If you want to know how to play that, you would just have to go out and and buy and buy SpaceX because no one else is in that business right now.

Speaker 1

我之前提过 Vertiv。

I mentioned Vertiv earlier.

Speaker 1

Vertiv 想进入这个领域,也许将来能进去,但说到底,关键就是能不能搭上 SpaceX 这班车。

Vertiv is trying to be in that business and maybe will be in that business, but I think it's really a question of of just being in SpaceX, plain and simple.

Speaker 1

最后,我们有来自马萨诸塞州的布兰登。

Finally, we have Brandon in Massachusetts.

Speaker 1

布兰登。

Brandon.

Speaker 2

吉姆,谢谢你接我的电话。

Jim, thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 2

太棒了!

Booyah.

Speaker 1

太棒了!

Booyah.

Speaker 1

最近怎么样,布兰登?

What's up, Brandon?

Speaker 2

我一直在建仓Fubo,现在他们拿到了迪士尼70%的大额投资,想听听你的看法。

I've been building a position in Fubo and wondering what your thoughts are now that they have a large investment from Disney at 70%.

Speaker 2

他们又和NBC环球恢复了合作。

They've reestablished a partnership with NBCUniversal.

Speaker 2

你怎么看?

What do you think?

Speaker 1

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

这是媒体行业,你别指望我会对任何媒体相关的东西感兴趣。

It's media, and it's you're gonna have a very hard time getting me to like anything media at all.

Speaker 1

你完全依赖收购,但他们其实只是把内容来源重新拿回来了,就这么回事。

You're really relying on takeovers, but they made it they draft back the sources like, sure.

Speaker 1

一场篮球赛带来了不少数据。

A basketball game had a lot of numbers.

Speaker 1

突然间,数据变好了。

So suddenly good numbers.

Speaker 1

所以现在我们就得因为一场篮球赛,就开始喜欢这些股票了吗?

So suddenly, we're supposed to start liking those stocks because they had a big basketball game.

Speaker 1

咱们得现实一点。

We gotta get realistic.

Speaker 1

这行业本来就在长期衰退,光看它便宜,我们不会往里投钱的。

This is an industry that's in secular decline, and we're not gonna invest in it just because it looks very cheap.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

我要感谢所有打电话来的听众。

I wanna thank you to all the callers.

Speaker 1

我是说,你们这些克雷默的粉丝,真的非常棒。

I mean, I you voices of Cramer, you're terrific.

Speaker 1

我总说市场上总会有新的机会,我向你们保证,我会在这档《午间财经》里尽力帮你们找到它。

I like to say there's always a more market somewhere, and I promise to try to find it just for you right here on Mid Money.

Speaker 1

我是吉姆·克雷默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

Speaker 1

下次再见。

See you next time.

Speaker 9

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见,不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场,这些观点可能已在他之前的电视、广播、网络或其他平台上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

Speaker 9

您不应将克雷默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引,而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

Speaker 9

克雷默的观点基于他所认为可靠的信息,但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不保证这些信息的完整性和准确性,不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Speaker 9

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明,请访问 cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC Sports 和 Boardroom 将携手 Fanatics Fest,共同探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念与战略布局。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

请前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

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