Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/22/26

换句话说，如果你投资于一只主动管理的美国大盘股基金，它的表现很可能会跑输标普500指数。

In other words, if you invest in an actively managed fund for large cap US stocks, then its performance will probably fall short of the S and P 500.

更糟糕的是，尽管这些主动管理型基金长期跑输市场，它们的费率却依然是行业中最高的之一。

To make matters worse, despite consistently underperforming the market, actively managed mutual funds still have some of the highest fees in the business.

所以，就算你的基金真能跑赢基准，也很可能因为高昂的管理费把那点超额收益全吃掉了，最终到手的收益还不如一只跟踪标普500的低成本指数基金。

So even if your fund does manage to beat its benchmark, the odds are good that any outperformance will be eaten up by big management fees and you'll end up with an investment that makes you less money than a cheap index fund that mirrors the S and P 500.

这真是个奇怪的行业。

That's some industry.

这生意模式也太不靠谱了。

That's fun business much more synchronous with.

我家的基金在扣除所有费用后，年化回报高达24%，而同期标普500只有8%。

At my family compounded 24% annually after all fees versus 8% for the S and P over the same period.

是的，我一直刻意避开这些费用，甚至有一年我只赚了几个百分点，而市场表现不错的时候，我干脆主动放弃了收取管理费。

Yeah, I faded every second about those fees and even chose not to take them during a year where I was only up a couple percent versus a strong performance for the averages.

没错。

Yes.

我当时真的觉得很丢脸。

I was that ashamed.

有哪个共同基金经理为你这么做过吗？

Did mutual fund manager ever do that for you?

这些事你都可以在《街头操盘手的自白》里读到。

You can read all about it in confessions of a street act.

我的自传，说得直白点，是我什么都敢说的那本。

My tell all, let's say, my tell too much autobiography.

现在我要说的这部分是：并不是所有主动管理的共同基金都差。

Now here's the part where I'm I say not all actively managed mutual funds are bad.

有些基金的经理确实非常出色，长期表现优异。

Some of them have fabulous managers who consistently deliver terrific results.

但即便如此，这里还是有个大问题。

But even here, there's a major problem.

如果一只共同基金长期表现优异，而基金经理人品不错，他就会停止接受新的投资，因为基金规模一旦太大，就再也难以维持之前的高回报了。

When a mutual fund delivers great results for a long period of time, if the manager is a decent person, they'll stop accepting new investments because once they get too big, it's impossible to generate the same kind of gains.

所以很多高质量的基金确实存在，但它们不再接受新的投资。

So a lot of these high quality funds are out there, but they don't take new money.

如果基金经理人品一般，就会不断吸纳更多资金，直到业绩下滑，最终损害你的利益。

And if the managers are not so great person, they'll keep taking more and more money until the performance starts to suffer hurting you.

已故的指数基金之父约翰·博格曾经问我，我是怎么在对冲基金里如此稳定地跑赢市场平均收益的。

When the late great john Bogle, he's the father of the index fund asked me how I could beat the averages so consistently at my hedge fund.

我告诉他，我限制了投资者的数量。

I said that I limited my investors.

我把这个基金搞成了一个俱乐部，想加入必须有人推荐。

I made it like a club where you had to be nominated to get in.

这样一来，我就永远不会被新来的资金压得喘不过气，而这种压力常常导致糟糕的投资决策。

That meant I was never overwhelmed with new money, something that often leads to bad investment decisions.

博格对我的做法大加赞赏。

Bogle praised me.

我得承认，当时我真的很高兴，还说如果人人都这么做，他们的业绩也会好得多。

I have to admit I did love that and said that if everyone did that, they'd have much better records too.

也许这正是我的对冲基金多年跑赢大盘的真实秘诀。

And maybe that was the real secret to my hedge funds multi year outperformance.

顺便说一句，如果你想了解成功背后的其他秘诀，那正是我们投资俱乐部教的内容。

By the way, if you want to know the other secrets to that success, again, that's what we teach at the investing club.

不过我们再回到主动管理的共同基金上。

But back to actively managed mutual funds.

大部分情况下，它们根本不值得投资。

For the most part, they're not worth it.

费用太高，而且绝大多数基金表现跑输大盘的证据实在太明显了。

The fees are too high, and the evidence that the bulk of them underperform is just too staggering.

常看节目的观众都知道，我觉得最好的策略是搭配一只低费率的指数基金，再加上你自己挑选的个股组合。

Regular viewers know that I think your best strategy is to pair a low fee index fund with a portfolio of individual stocks that you picked yourself.

我每晚都讲这个，对俱乐部成员也反复强调。

That's what I talk about night after night and preach endlessly to club members.

但如果你没时间研究个股，或者你的401(k)计划根本不允许你这么做，那我就告诉你投资共同基金的聪明方法。

But for those of you who don't have the time to do to research individual companies or if your four zero one k plans just won't let you do it, let me tell you the smart way to invest in mutual funds.

理想情况下，你应该选一个低成本的指数基金，跟踪整个市场，比如跟踪标普500的那类。

Ideally, you want a cheap, low cost index fund that mirrors the market as a whole, one that mimics the Standard and Poor's 500.

指数基金的费用低得惊人。

Index funds have ultra low fees.

有了标普指数基金，你就能分享市场的整体增长，还不用花时间去挑个股。

And with an S and P index fund, you've got a vehicle that lets you participate in the strength of the market without having to spend the time picking individual stocks.

别忘了，你把钱放进共同基金，本来就是为了省下自己打理投资组合的时间和精力。

Remember, the whole point of putting your money in a mutual fund is to save you the time and effort required to manage your own portfolio stocks.

所以我觉得，有人买好几只共同基金，简直太荒谬了。

That's why I think it's insane when people start owning multiple mutual funds.

从本质上说，基金本来就该是分散投资的。

By its very nature, funds should be diversified.

我知道市面上有很多行业主题的基金和ETF，但像你这样的普通投资者，根本没必要碰这些。

Now I know there are lots of sector based mutual funds and ETFs out there, but there's really no reason for home gamers like you to have any exposure to those.

如果你真想花时间去押注某个行业，那还不如直接去挑个股，时间用得更值。

If you're going to take the time to try to play individual sectors, that time would be much better spent picking individual stocks.

至于ETF，大多数情况下，它们是用来交易的，而不是用来投资的。

As for ETFs, in most cases, these vehicles are for trading, not investing.

我不支持频繁交易。

I'm not in favor of trade.

很多ETF每天都要重新平衡，这对长期收益会造成不小的影响。

Many ETFs rebalance every day, and that can take a real toll on any kind of long term performance.

即使你判断对了，也可能亏很多钱。

You can lose a lot of money even if you're right.

当然，这里也有不少例外，比如GLD，我就挺喜欢这只ETF。

Of course, there are plenty of exceptions here too, like the GLD, which I like the ETF.

它是一种简单参与黄金投资的方式。

It's a simple way to play gold.

当然，我也喜欢那些跟踪标普500的指数型ETF。

And I like the test, of course, that mimic the S P 500.

但总的来说，如果你不是专业人士，也没在亲自管理个股组合，那就别轻易碰这些玩意儿。

But in general, if you're not a pro and you're not managing portfolio of individual stocks, then you should be very careful about fooling around with most of this stuff.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

归根结底，我觉得低成本的标普500指数基金，比绝大多数主动管理型基金更靠谱。

At the end of the day, I think a cheap S and P 500 index fund is the least bad way to passively manage your money better than the vast bulk of actively managed mutual funds.

但指数基金啥都买，好的坏的、差的，全都有。

But an index fund owns everything, the good, the bad, the ugly.

如果你有时间做研究的话。

And you do have the time to do your homework.

我觉得自己选股能跑赢指数基金，挑出那些差的、不好的，避开它们。

I believe you can beat the performance of an index fund by picking stocks yourself, maybe leaving the bad and the ugly out of it.

如果你现在没时间，那就继续用指数基金，或者加入我们的投资俱乐部。

Now if you don't have the time now, stick with the index fund or and join the investing club.

我们会帮你做研究。

We will help you do the homework.

做研究。

Homework.

我们来听一下来自田纳西的埃里克。

Let's go to Eric in Tennessee.

埃里克。

Eric.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我是来自帕克城的埃里克。

This is Eric from Park City.

我想问一下关于股票基本面估值的问题。

My question is in regard to fundamental valuation of a stock.

如果你只能选择四个指标来分析，你会选哪四个？

If you could only had access, if you only had access to four indicators to examine, what four measurements would you choose to look at?

好的。

Okay.

我会看销售额。

I would look at sales.

我会看盈利情况。

I would look at earnings.

我会看利润率。

I would look at margins.

我会看总的可服务市场规模，想想未来能发展到什么程度。

I would look at total the total addressable market, see how things could be.

只要告诉我这是哪家公司，这些指标就能让我清楚判断。

All those will give me exactly if you just told me it was x y z corp.

如果能提前看到一些历史数据，我就能告诉你我的大致判断。

I can give you a sense of what I'd be thinking provide I had some historical data ahead of me.

我们接下来请加利福尼亚的佩罗兹发言。

Let's go to Perroz in California.

佩罗兹。

Perroz.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

只是想感谢你制作了这么棒的节目。

Just wanted to thank you every for your show.

跟着你一起了解市场，我学到了很多。

It's been a great, learning experience for me, navigating the markets with you.

真的非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

本来还想说一声。

Wanted to yeah.

不客气。

You're welcome.

真的很感激。

Really appreciate it.

我有个问题想问问你。

So I just wanted to ask you a question here.

我知道乔·特拉诺瓦是你的好朋友，我个人也非常重视基本面和技术面分析，投资时都会结合两者来做决策。

I know Joe Terra Nova is a huge friend of yours, and I'm I'm huge on fundamental and technical analysis and use them both to make my investment decisions.

所以我想问的是，即使一家公司的基本面很强，是不是也该把技术分析结合起来用？

So my question is, even though the company is showing strong fundamentals, is it a good idea to incorporate technical analysis as well?

当然要。

Always.

我觉得所有因素都该考虑进去。

I think everything should be included.

我来跟你说说原因。

I'll tell you why.

因为很多决策，尤其是大型基金经理，都是靠这些技术指标来做判断的，所以你也应该把这些纳入你的思考框架。

Because whatever makes decisions and a lot of big fund managers use those decisions and they use technicals means that you should include them into your thinking too.

就算你个人觉得技术分析没用，只要是靠谱的信息，都该用在你的决策里，包括技术分析。

Even if you think they shouldn't, all available information that is good should go into your decision making, technical analysis.

明白了。

Alright.

指数基金什么都会买，好的、差的、不好的，全都要。

An index fund owns everything, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

如果你有时间自己做研究，我相信通过自己选股，你完全可以跑赢指数基金的表现。

So if you do have the time to do your own homework, I believe you can beat the performance of an index by picking stocks yourself.

能赚到更多的钱。

Much more money at.

我会从大学时代一直讲到退休，给你全面讲透财务安全的要点。

I'm giving you the lowdown on financial security from college all the way to retirement.

稍后，我的同事杰夫·马克斯会加入进来，回答你们一些更迫切的问题。

And later, my colleague, Jeff Marks, will join me to answer some of your more burning questions.

继续关注克雷默。

So stay with Cramer.

不管你选股多厉害，如果不懂那些复杂的账户规则，不知道怎么打理个人财务，或者在重大人生开销上不会精打细算，那你很可能错失巨额收益，或者被各种隐形费用掏空钱包。

No matter how good you are at picking stocks, if you don't know the Byzantine rules about what kind of accounts to keep your money in or how to manage your personal finances, or how to get the most bang for your buck when it comes to major lifetime expenses, then you could be missing out on some terrific gains or losing a fortune to hidden fees.

我承认，这类事情确实没有选股那么有趣。

I admit this kind of stuff isn't as fun as picking stocks.

就是选股那种事。

You know, like picking stocks.

但纵观你的一生，这些小细节真正帮你积累的财富，可能远超几次选对股票的收益。

But over the course of your lifetime, it really can help you build up more wealth than a couple of great stock picks.

说到底，我不希望你因为没人愿意跟你讲清楚，比如退休投资的那些细节，而白白错过本该属于你的钱。

And the simple truth is that I don't want you leaving the money on the table just because nobody could be bothered to explain it to you, say the finer points of retirement investing.

说到这里，我来跟你聊聊，你是该用普通的401(k)账户、传统IRA，还是选择Roth IRA——这个词你肯定听过无数遍了。

With that in mind, let me explain whether it makes sense for you to use a regular four zero one k or an IRA, or for you to go with a Roth IRA, which is a term I'm sure you've heard countless times.

我知道我之前已经把个人退休账户（IRA）和401(k)计划的好处讲得够多了。

Now I know I've talked endlessly about the benefits of using the individual retirement account or the IRA for short, and a four zero one k plan to invest for retirement.

我可不想在这事儿上啰嗦个没完。

I don't wanna beat a dead horse here.

但每天都有人问我这个问题，频率高得吓人。

But this is a subject I get a ton of questions about every day.

我该把钱放进Roth IRA，还是普通IRA？

Should I put my money in a Roth IRA account or a regular one?

咱们先说Roth IRA，只要你年收入低于15万3千美元，任何人都能存。

Let's start with the Roth IRA, which anyone can contribute to as long as they make less than a $153,000 a year.

我认为，除了劳动所得税抵免和疫情期间的临时救助外，罗斯IRA可能是自‘向贫困宣战’结束以来，政府为低收入家庭做的最棒的一件事——而那场‘战争’顶多算个平局，贫困说不定正等着反扑呢。

I think that aside from the earned income tax credit and all the temporary COVID stimulus, the Roth IRA may be the single greatest thing our government has done for low income families since the end of the war on poverty, which at best end in a draw with poverty possibly waiting on points.

如果我是森林之王，我会让IRA的投资限额和401(k)完全一样。

If I were the king of the forest, I'd make the limits for the IRA investing the same as the limits for four zero one k.

这会是我今年剩下的时间里一直强调的主题。

That's gonna be a theme of mine for the rest of the year.

它们不一样，这简直荒谬。

It's ridiculous that they aren't.

但这个行业似乎并不在意，因为他们从401(k)计划里赚的钱多得多。

But the industry doesn't seem to care because they make a lot more money off of four zero one k plans.

我实在找不出其他理由，能解释为什么你往401(k)里存的钱，能比IRA多出三倍。

There's no other reason I can find for why you can contribute roughly three times as much money to an IRA.

抱歉，我是说，401(k)的限额是IRA的三倍。

I'm sorry, to a four zero one k as an IRA.

401(k)的额度是IRA的三倍。

Three times four zero one k over an IRA.

我们得允许大家每年至少存入一万美元，你觉得怎么样？

We need to allow people to put at least a 100 let's say, how about this?

你每年往IRA里存一万美元，这远超现在的上限，甚至比1975年刚推出这类账户时的额度，按通胀调整后还要高。

You put $10,000 in IRA per year, much more in the current cap and even a little higher than what the contribution limit would have been if you just started these accounts in 1975 and adjusted the initial guidelines for inflation.

对。

Yes.

我坚决主张：一万美元，没得商量。

I'm championing $10,000 or bust.

我是站在你这边的，这事不达成，我绝不罢休。

I am your friend on this, and I will not stop until we get it.

我之前跟你们讲过传统IRA，可以用税前收入存入，投资后收益年复一年、 decade after decade 地复利增长，退休前取钱都不用缴税。

I told you all about our regular IRA, lets you take pretax income, invest it, and then your gains can compound year after year, decade after decade, totally tax free until you decide to start withdrawing money once you retire.

但Roth IRA的机制不一样。

But a Roth IRA, that works differently.

Roth IRA是用税后收入来存钱的。

With a Roth, you make contributions using after tax income.

换句话说，和普通IRA不同，存钱进Roth IRA不会立刻帮你减税。

So in other words, unlike a regular IRA, putting money into a Roth won't decrease your tax bill, at least not upfront.

但一旦钱进了Roth IRA，以后就再也不用为它缴税了。

On the other hand, once your money's in a Roth IRA, you'll never pay taxes on it again.

只要钱一直留在账户里。

As long as your cash remains in the account.

你不用交资本利得税。

You don't pay capital gains tax.

也不用交股息税。

You don't pay dividend tax.

等你退休后，年满59岁半就可以自由取款，那时取出来的钱，一分钱所得税都不用交。

And when you withdraw it, which you can do without penalty after the age of 59 and 59, I should say, you don't pay any income tax on your withdrawals.

一分都不用。

None.

简单说，Roth就是现在缴税，省得你三十年、四十年后退休时再为收入缴税。

Basically, the Roth, you pay taxes now, so you don't have to pay any income tax thirty or forty years from now when you're retired.

还有一个关于罗斯账户的好处。

There's one more positive point about a Roth.

五年后，你可以把当初投进去的钱取出来——注意，不是收益，只是你本人缴的那部分——而且不会被罚10%，而普通退休账户在你满59岁前取钱，可是要被罚这个数的。

After five years, you can withdraw the money you've invested, not your gains, just the amount you contributed, and you won't get hit with a 10% penalty, which is what happens when you try to withdraw money from a regular RA before you hit that magic age of 59.

这跟普通IRA完全不一样，普通IRA现在缴的钱不用交税，账户里的收益也不用交税。

That's a very that's very, very different from a regular IRA, where you don't pay any taxes on your contributions now, and your gains don't get taxed within the account.

但一旦你开始取钱，每一分钱都要按普通收入税率缴税。所以当你在选罗斯IRA、401(k)还是普通IRA、401(k)的时候，关键是要想清楚：是现在交税划算，还是等退休后再交？

But once you start withdrawing the money, every penny you take out is taxed, and it's taxed at ordinary income, which means that when you're trying to decide between a Roth IRA or a four zero one k and a regular IRA or a four zero one k, you need to determine whether it makes more sense to pay income tax now with a Roth or to wait and pay income tax once you've retired with a regular account.

说白了，你得判断自己退休后是会进入更高的税档，还是更低的税档。

In short, you're trying to figure out whether you'll be in a higher tax bracket if you retired or lower one.

这当然不是个简单问题，得看你的具体情况、职业发展，还有你现在的年龄。

Obviously, is really a complicated question that has a lot to do with the specifics of your situation, your career, and simply how old you are.

不过我的一个简单建议是：如果你的边际税率在22%或以下——这其实覆盖了大多数美国人——我建议你选罗斯账户。

But my quick rule of thumb for anyone whose marginal tax rate is 22% or less, which is most of America, I think you'd go with a Roth.

与其以后让钱在账户里免税增长，不如现在就承担一点税负，长远来看更划算。

Better to take the hit upfront than allow your Roth IRA to compound tax free for the rest of your life.

记住，如果你没时间自己挑选五到十只股票来构建分散的投资组合，最明智的做法就是把退休金放进一只低成本的指数基金，跟踪标普500。等你年纪大一点，可以慢慢加些债券，但在真正退休之前，股票都应该是你退休投资的主体。

Remember, for those of you who don't have the time to pick your own diversified portfolio of five to 10 stocks, the smartest thing you do is just park your retirement money in a low cost income fund that mirrors the S and P five As you get older, you can add some bonds, but really until you actually retire, stocks should make up the lion's share of your retirement investments.

我知道我以前说过，但我还是会一直重复，直到他们把我从广播里赶出去，因为这真的太重要了。

I know I've said this before, but I'll keep repeating it until they kick me off the air because it's so necessary.

这和主流观点完全相反。

It's so contrary to the conventional wisdom.

那Roth 401(k)呢？

How about a Roth four zero one k?

好的。

Alright.

这个和Roth IRA一样。

This one works just like a Roth IRA.

意思是，你用税后收入做供款，之后这笔钱就再也不用缴税了。

Meaning, you make contributions with after tax income, and then you never pay taxes on that money again.

不过因为这是401(k)计划，它的供款上限确实比IRA高得多。

Except because it's a four one k plan, it has of, yes, again, a much higher contribution limit than an IRA.

还有一点很重要的不同。

There's one other big difference.

和罗斯IRA不同，罗斯401(k)没有任何收入门槛限制。

Unlike a Roth IRA, a Roth four zero one k doesn't have any kinds of means testing.

不管你赚多少钱，只要雇主提供这个选项，你就都能享受罗斯401(k)的好处。

No matter how much money you earn, you can take advantage of a Roth four zero one k as long as your employer decides to give you the option.

当然，这些决定都取决于你对未来的看法。

Of course, all these decisions depend on what you think the future will look like.

如果你觉得未来税率会大幅上升，那现在缴税、将来免税的罗斯401(k)就是更好的选择，哪怕你现在收入很高。

If you believe the taxes are headed ultimately hot up, much higher over the course of your lifetime, then a Roth four zero one k where you pay your taxes now and pay nothing in the future is the way to go, even if you're making a lot of money in the present.

但归根结底，这些事既超出了我们的掌控，也超出了我们的预测能力。

At the end of the day though, this is both beyond our control and beyond our ability to predict.

简单说，你现在的收入越低，税率就越低。

The bottom line, the lower your present income, then the lower your tax rate.

罗斯401(k)或者罗斯IRA让你现在以低税率缴税，以后再也不用为退休金缴税了。

A Roth four four zero one k or Roth IRA lets you pay those low rates now and never worry about taxes again for your retirement money.

所以你赚得越少，越适合选择罗斯账户。

So the less money you make, the more likely that a Roth is for you.

就是这么简单。

It's that simple.

存退休金的时候，别去操心三十四十年后可能发生什么灾难性的事。

And when you're saving for retirement, don't worry about what could go catastrophically wrong thirty or forty years in the future.

只管现在做出最好的决定。

Just worry about making the best choices right now.

他们有钱？

They have money?

广告后继续。

It's back after the break.

最近，我们听到了很多关于学生贷款沉重负担的话题。

Lately, we've heard a lot about the crushing burden of student loans.

还有政府该不该出手，帮着减轻一部分负担。

And what the government should or shouldn't do, make some of that burden go away.

疫情期间，我们经历了长达数年的还款暂停，这极大地刺激了经济。

We lived through a years long moratorium on repayments during the pandemic, which helps supercharge the economy.

多项研究都显示，毕业时没有债务的孩子，未来财富积累远超那些背负学生贷款的同学。

In study after study, kids who graduate with no debt end up being worth a lot more money than their classmates who have outstanding student loan balances.

不过，正如我之前说的，学生贷款的利率比信用卡债务低多了。

Although, as I said before, student debt is a heck of a lot cheaper than credit card debt.

所以，别太纠结于这个项目本身。

So it really don't sweat the program too much.

问题在于，这笔债务总额实在太大了，而且在破产时也无法免除。

Problem here is that it's simply that there's so darn much of it, and you can't get rid of it in bankruptcy.

所以，对于任何为人父母或打算为人父母的朋友，我现在就告诉你们：能为孩子的未来做的最值得的事之一，就是尽你所能负担他们的大学教育费用。

So for any of you who are parents or think of becoming parents, let me just tell you right now that there are very few things you can do for your kid's future that are better than paying for as much of their college education as you can afford.

当然，如果我要按马斯洛需求层次来排一排财务优先级，我会说，为自己存钱和投资退休金更重要——这也是我之前在节目中提到过的原因。

Of course, if I were to make a kind of a Maslow style hierarchy of financial needs, I tell you that's more important for you to save and invest for retirement, which is why I talked about how earlier in the show.

为什么要把自己放在孩子前面？

Why prioritize yourself over your children?

很简单。

Simple.

因为如果你没有退休金，你觉得谁来养你？

Because if you don't have that retirement money, who do you think is gonna support you?

孩子吗？

The kids?

如果你希望将来有孙子孙女，就得准备好退休金。

If ever want grandchildren, you'll need a retirement fund.

不然，你的孩子就得花上多年时间来照顾你。

Otherwise, your children will spend ages taking care of you instead.

不过，等你每年存够了退休金，就该开始考虑孩子的大学费用了，哪怕孩子还只是个幼儿。

However, after you saved enough for retirement in a given year, then it's time to start thinking about college, even if your kid's only a toddler.

存大学学费最好的方式，毫无疑问，就是使用所谓的529计划。

And the best way to save for college, hands down, is through what's known as a five twenty nine plan.

这些计划在各州有所不同，但基本规则在全国都是一样的。

Now, these plans vary by state, but the general rules apply across the country.

现在，五二九计划有两种类型。

Now, there's two kinds of five twenty nine plans.

有些州允许你把五二九计划当作对冲学费上涨的工具。

First, some states let you use a five twenty nine as a hedge, way to hedge against tuition inflation.

你可以按现在的价格购买大学学分，以后再使用。

You can buy college tuition credits at today's prices and then use them in the future.

但我说的不是这个，尤其是在现在许多政界人士都在讨论让公立大学免费的情况下。

That's not what I'm talking about, though, especially not in a world where major national politicians are talking about making tuition free public universities.

不是。

No.

我想让你用的是五二九储蓄计划。

I want you to use a five twenty nine savings plan.

这些计划都是由各州运营的。

Again, these are run by states.

但一般来说，五二九计划并不让你自己管理投资组合。

But generally speaking, a five twenty nine doesn't let you manage your own portfolio.

你得在几种不同的共同基金之间做选择，就像很多401(k)计划那样。

You have to pick between a mix of different mutual funds, just like with many four zero one k plans.

这并不是我最推荐的做法。

This is not my favorite way to do things.

我更希望你能自己掌控资产，但五二九计划的好处实在太多，这点缺点我愿意忍了。

I prefer you to have control over your assets, but five twenty nines have so much going for them that I'm willing to swallow this one flaw.

记住，如果你只能选基金，那就选成本低、跟踪市场表现的，比如标普500指数基金。

Remember, when you can only choose between funds, go for a low cost fund that mirrors the market like an s and p 500 index fund.

那五二九计划的具体规定是什么呢？

So what are the rules for a five twenty nine plan?

好吧。

Alright.

假设你刚有了第一个孩子。

Let's say you've just had your first child.

恭喜你。

Congratulations.

如果经济允许，你该立刻为孩子设立一个529计划，把他们列为受益人。

If you can afford it, you should start a five twenty nine with your kids as the beneficiary right then and there.

我就是这么做的。

That's what I did.

不过，也许可以等几天再办。

Well, maybe wait a couple of days.

毕竟你刚生完孩子。

After all, you just had a baby.

但我没等。

Although I didn't.

读过《街头交易员的自白》的人都知道，我整个生产过程都在大笔交易酒精类资产。

Anyone who's read Confessions of a Street Act knows I traded big blocks of alcohol throughout the whole birthing.

这算是我最辉煌的时刻了。

Admittedly, my finest hour.

当然，这些交易在财务上是赚了，但要是你不了解情况，其实对家里一点帮助都没有。

Although the trades only worked out financially, if not familiar, Didn't really help things at home.

五二九计划就是这么运作的。

Here's how five twenty nine works.

供款不能抵税。

The contributions are not tax deductible.

所以你是用税后收入来支付这笔费用。

So you're paying for this with after tax income.

钱一旦进入五二九账户，后续的投资收益就完全免税，可以年复一年地复利增长，这正是我最看重的地方。

Once your money's in the five twenty nine plan, you don't pay any taxes on your gains, so they can compound tax free year after year, which is what I like so much.

它跟罗斯IRA很像，只不过目的是供孩子上大学，而不是养老。

It's a lot like a World IRA, except for college rather than retirement.

根据联邦赠与税规定，单身人士每年最多可存17,000美元，已婚夫妇如果联合报税，则可存34,000美元。

Because of federal gift tax laws, you can contribute 17,000 a year if you're single, or 34,000 if you're married and you file your taxes jointly.

这可不是一笔小数目。

That is a heck of a lot of money.

对了，顺便说一句，孩子的祖父母也可以往同一个五二九账户里存钱。

Oh, and by the way, your kid's grandparents can contribute to the same five twenty nine plan too.

如果你手头没钱，祖父母也可以以你孩子为受益人，单独开设一个529计划。

And if you don't have the money, a grandparent can also start a five twenty nine with your kid as the beneficiary.

不过从申请助学金的角度来看，还是父母来操作更好一些。

Although for financial aid reasons, it's better to have a parent to do it.

假设因为某种原因，你或者你的父母手头有一大笔钱。

Now let's say for some reason you or your parents are sitting on a really huge sum of money.

529计划的一个好处是，你可以一次性存入五年份的额度，而且不会触发联邦赠与税，前提是你未来五年内不再向计划受益人打款——这其实很容易，毕竟谁会给一个七岁孩子写支票呢？

One of the cool things about a five twenty nine plan is that you can front load five years worth of contributions without incurring the federal gift tax as long as you don't write any checks to the plan's beneficiary over the next five years, which is not hard because who writes checks to a seven year old?

换句话说，单亲父母或祖父母从一开始就能一次性投入85,000美元到529计划中。

In other words, a single parent or grandparent could potentially invest $85,000 into a five twenty nine plan right from the start.

如果你已婚并联合报税，那最高可以存入17万美元。

Or if you're married and filing jointly, you can contribute a $170,000.

对于

For the

之后的五年里，你就不能再往里存钱了，否则就会被征收赠与税，而这显然是你不想看到的。

next five years after that, you won't be able to contribute anything without getting hit by the gift tax, which is something you don't want.

但说实话，一旦你往五二九账户里投了这么多钱，之后就不用再投多少了。

But honestly, once you've dropped that kind of money to a five twenty nine, you won't need to make that many more contributions.

不过关键在于，越早把钱放进孩子的五二九账户越好。

The key here though is that you want to get that money into your kid's five twenty nine as early as possible.

因为这类计划最厉害的地方，就在于复利的力量。

That's because the greatest of these plans is all about the power of compounding.

由于五二九账户内收益免税，如果你能设法一次性投入八万五千美元，再把这些钱投进一个低成本的指数基金，跟踪市场表现，通常来说，长期年化收益大约能有8%。

Given that you don't pay taxes within the five twenty nine, if you can somehow contrive to contribute $85,000 worth of bat, and you invest that money in a low cost index fund that mirrors the market, the rule of thumb is that over time, you'll make an average of roughly 8% per year.

8%。

8%.

等孩子满18岁的时候，你的本金就能翻三倍。

Then by the time your newborn is 18, you should have tripled your money.

八万五千变成三十四万美元。

85 turns into $340,000.

这足够支付一所昂贵的私立大学学费，外加法学院的一大半开销。

That's enough for an expensive private college education and a decent chunk of law school to boot.

我知道大多数人没法一次性存这么多钱到529计划里，但如果你能做到，这绝对是最佳策略。

I know most people can't front load a $5.29 plan like this, but if you can front load, it's the best strategy.

另外，对祖父母来说，这话可能听着有点沉重，但你存入529计划的钱不算在遗产税范围内。

Oh, and for grandparents, this may sound kind of grim, but your five twenty nine plan contributions won't count towards your estate tax.

借用《万世魔星》里的一句话：永远要看到死亡背后积极的一面。

Hey, to borrow a line from the life of Brian, always look on the bright side of death.

最后一点，关于为大学和研究生教育存钱：529计划里没用完的钱，可以转给其他亲属。

Last thing about saving for college and grad school, any money in a five twenty nine plan that you don't use, you can transfer to another relative.

比如兄弟姐妹、父母，甚至堂表兄弟姐妹都可以。

We're talking siblings, parents, even first cousins.

顺便说一句，如果你存了这么多钱，结果孩子不愿意上大学，你也可以直接把529账户里的钱取出来。

By the way, if you save all this money and your ungrateful kid decides not to go to college, you can just withdraw the money from your five twenty nine plan.

直接提出来就行。

You just take it.

不过，你需要为收益部分缴税，外加10%的罚款。

Although, you'll have to pay taxes on any of your gains along with a 10% penalty.

说白了就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

供孩子上大学，没你自己的退休保障重要，至少从财务角度来说是这样。

Paying for your kid's college education isn't as important as providing for yourself in retirement, at least not financially.

但如果你有孩子，等你今年的退休储蓄额度到位后，下一步就该往529大学储蓄计划里存钱了。

But if you have children, then after you've made enough retirement contributions for the year, putting money in in a 05/29 college savings plan should be the next item on your agenda.

跟着克雷默走。

Stick with Cramer.

是的。

Oh, yeah.

吉姆·克雷默。

Jim Cramer.

我是第一次打电话，也是个开心的会员。

I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.

谢谢你们为普通投资者发声。

I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.

谢谢你帮我成为百万富翁。

Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.

我总说，我最喜欢节目里的部分，就是直接回答你们的问题。

I always say my favorite part of the show is answering questions directly from you.

今天，我请来了杰夫·马克斯，我的投资组合分析搭档，一起回答你们最关心的一些问题。

Today, I'm bringing in Jeff Marks, my portfolio analyst partner in Prime, help me answer some of your most burning questions.

对于已经加入投资俱乐部的朋友们，杰夫就不用我多介绍了。

Now for those of you who are part of the investing club, Jeff will need no introduction.

对于还没加入的，我希望你们现在就加入。

For those of you who aren't members, I hope you so will.

你们赶紧加入吧。

You gotta join already.

我觉得杰夫在我们对话中的见解，帮我更好地服务了所有《疯狂金钱》的观众。

I would say Jeff's insights on our back and forth helped me do a great job for all Mad Money viewers.

我觉得，比起说出来，更重要的是——俱乐部的成员们。

And I think in some ways more important than to say it, members of the club.

如果你喜欢这样的内容，别忘了加入俱乐部。

And if you like this, be sure to join the club.

有意思的是，我得告诉你，他和我每天都会争论，而且我们从来意见不一。

What's really interesting, just so you know, is that he and I go at it every day, and we don't agree.

如果我们全都看法一致，那还有什么意思呢？

If we all if we agreed, what would be the point?

第一个问题来自加利福尼亚的格雷戈里，你好，吉姆。

First up, we're taking questions from Gregory in California who is, hi, Jim.

我两个月前加入了投资俱乐部，早该听你的了。

I started with Investing Club two months ago, and I should have trusted you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我现在认真听了。

You have my attention now.

谢谢。

Thank you.

有没有一种客观的方法来判断内在价值？

Is there an objective way to determine intrinsic value?

如果有，那关于这个话题的明确信息又在哪里呢？

If so, where is clear information on the subject again?

这一点，你和我可能看法不一样。

Now this is something that you and I may disagree on.

我更偏向于艺术。

I am more, art.

你更偏向于科学。

You are more science.

当我思考一家公司有没有内在价值时，我常常会想：没了它，行不行？

When I think about a company that has intrinsic value, I often think about, can we do without it?

它有多独特？

How special is it?

总的市场空间有多大？

What's the total addressable market?

我把市值当成机会的等价物来看待吗？

Do I value the market cap as equal to the opportunity?

这是我个人的一种看法。

That's a very my own way to look at it.

而你呢，我觉得你更理性、更严谨。

You, on the other hand, I think you're far more analytic and more precise.

条条大路通罗马。

Well, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

我觉得你可以这么看：把这家公司的市盈率和同行对比，再看看收入增长率、毛利率、自由现金流这些指标，一一比较下来。

I think one way you could do it is look at the price to earnings multiple of that company versus some of its peers, then compare things like revenue growth, gross margins, free cash flow, and can stack them up one against each other.

这样就能判断一只股票相对于同类是便宜还是贵了。

And that could be a way to term to to determine if a stock is cheap or expensive versus the group.

完全对。

Totally.

当我分析公司时，我想特别强调一下，比如礼来比百时美更值得看。

And I I think that when I I look at companies and I say that I wanna emphasize, let's say, Eli Lilly over Bristol.

我关注的是增长速率，这让我对市盈率没那么担心；但你总能把我拉回现实，提醒我市盈率如果涨得太离谱，确实会出问题。归根结底，投资靠的是信任，我们必须做对的事。

I look at the fact that the growth rate makes it so that I'm not as worried about the price to earnings ratio, but then I've got you bringing back to Earth to always remind me that sometimes price to earnings ratio, if it goes sky high, could create problems, and we are in the end at trust, and we must do what's right.

接下来是来自纽约的罗伯特提问：嗨，吉姆。

Next, we have Robert New York who asked, hi, Jim.

我不想显得太贪心，但如果我打算长期持有某只股票，既然我觉得它还有很大上涨空间，为什么还要急着获利了结呢？

I don't want to sound like a pig, but if I'm planning to hold a stock for the long term, why should I take profits in the company when I know there's an excellent chance the stock will continue to rise?

明白了。

Okay.

原因在这里。

So here's why.

你不可能变成这家公司。

You can't become the company.

当我看礼来制药时，我觉得它是全球最大的制药公司之一

When I look at an Eli Lilly, which I think has got the biggest pharmaceutical

的

of

有史以来最强的，我这已经是第二次提了。

all time, I mentioned it twice now.

抱歉，这事一直在我脑子里转。

I'm sorry, but it's on my mind.

我们很容易变成‘礼来基金’，因为它的比重实在太大了。

We could easily become the Eli Lilly fund because it becomes dominant.

我们也可能变成‘苹果基金’，因为它已经占主导地位了。

We could become the Apple fund because it's become dominant.

所以我们一直努力避免把所有筹码都押在一家公司身上，正因如此，我觉得必须适时减仓。

So what we try to do at all times is make it so that we do not swing from one company, and that's what makes us feel like you've got to do some trimming.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得减仓和清仓之间还是有区别的。

I think there's also a difference too between trimming versus selling.

从2022年我们学到的一点是，哪怕世界上最好的公司，产品再棒、财务再稳健，也躲不过大幅回调。

If we've learned anything from 2022, it's that even the best companies in the world with the best products, great balance sheet management, no one was immune to a significant pullback.

所以如果能避免这种情况，哪怕是一家非常优秀的公司，也还是更适合做些减仓。

So if you can avoid, something like that, then it it favors trimming, even if it's such a great company.

杰夫，说得太到位了。

Jeff, perfectly put.

现在我想说，市场上总有一处是牛市，我正努力帮你在这档《Mid Money》里找到它。

Now I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I'm I'm trying to find it just for you right here on Mid Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

下次再见。

See you next time.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点仅代表他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已在他之前的电视、广播、互联网或其他平台上发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与Boardroom将携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

如需获取邀请，请前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.