Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/29/26

想象一下，他买了这些股票，却根本不知道这家公司是做什么的。

Imagine that he bought some, he didn't even know what they did.

现在你随便上谷歌一查，就能了解得比当年那个经纪人杰克告诉你的多得多。

Now you can find out more about it via Google right now than you could learn from Jack the broker back then.

National Video这家公司，其实只是给电视机生产真空管的。

National Video, you see, made vacuum tubes for TV sets.

以前电视出了问题，多半是里面某个真空管烧坏了。

In the old days, when you had a problem with your television, it was usually because a tube inside had blown.

当然，技术进步让这家公司被淘汰了，最后只好破产。

Of course, the technology left National Video behind, so it went bankrupt.

我爸买股票五年后，公司就关门了，但从他买进的第五天起，股价就一路狂跌。

Closed the stores about five years after Pop bought the stock, but it'd been going straight down since about five days after he bought it.

跌了多少次我都数不清了，但我知道，因为这支该死的National Video股票，我们家吃过好多顿沉默的饭。

The average down too many times to tell, but I know we had many a silent meal thanks to that day's decline in that godforsaken stock of national video.

我觉得我们家大部分积蓄，都是因为这支股票亏掉的。

I think we lost most of what we had as a family.

六十年代的时候，其实有很多更好的股票可以选择。

There were a host of better stocks you could have picked back in the sixties.

虽然按均线来看，大多数都没那么出色，但它们的股息很丰厚。

Most weren't that good according to the moving average, but they paid generous dividends.

现在回头看，我们最需要的其实是稳定收入。

In retrospect, what we needed more than anything else was income.

我？

Me?

单纯因为股价上涨就去买股票，这跟投资公司根本是两码事，倒更像是赌博。

The idea of picking stocks simply because they were going up was antithetical to the idea of buying stocks in companies and was more suited to dark throwing.

至少我挑的都是热门股，很多都是国防承包商，随着林登·约翰逊升级越战，它们赚得盆满钵满。

At least I picked the hot ones, many of which were defense contractors that were getting rich as LBJ escalated the Vietnam War.

对我来说，这游戏可有意思多了。

Well, for me, the game was a lot of fun.

但回头想想，我关于股票最深刻的领悟，其实来自两款三明治棋盘游戏。

But in retrospect, I learned the most about stocks from two three m board games.

是的。

Yes.

以前有那种桌游。

They used to have board games.

那些桌游叫《收购》和《股票与债券》。

Those board games were called acquire and stocks and bonds.

我父亲那时候为三M公司卖这些游戏。

My father sold games for three m back then.

那是他的工作。

This was his job.

《收购》讲的全是并购的事。

Acquire was all about mergers and acquisitions.

《股票与债券》是一款很棒的游戏，教你通过激进或保守的股票积累财富。

Stocks and bonds was a fantastic game about accumulating wealth through risky or conservative stocks.

顺便说一下，现在还能买到这些游戏。

By the way, you can get those.

在eBay上就能买到。

They're on eBay.

你就能明白我的意思了。

You can see what I mean.

现在咱们有各种股票主题的模拟游戏，但很少有能比得上《股票与债券》这款游戏的。

These days, we have whole fantasy leagues of stocks, but few of them can teach you more than that one board game, stocks and bonds.

它至今不过时。

It holds up.

现在咱们回过头想想，我当初要是换个做法会怎么样。

Now let's come back in time and think about what I could have done differently.

小时候，孩子玩的都是玩具。

First, when you're a little kid, you play with toys.

那时候要是买点泰勒哈斯bro的股票，倒是很自然的事。

It would have been natural to buy shares in Teller Hasbro.

我不是要小孩懂什么市盈率、估值倍数，或者具体盈利这些概念。

Now I'm not asking the kids to know what it means to own shares in a company in terms of price earnings, multiple, or even earnings.

我只是想说，这是一种让孩子们明白公司可以由公众持股、而你也可以拥有其中一部分的方式。

I'm simply saying it's a way to teach kids that a company can be owned by the public, and you can own a share in that company too.

他们熟悉玩具。

They know toys.

当然，这个讽刺之处我家人不可能没注意到。

Of course, the irony should not be lost on my family.

你能想象吗？要是我爸爸当年给我买过一支分红不错的股票该多好。

Can you imagine if my father had bought shares in a nice dividend stock for me?

买三支微软，而不是国家视频。

Three ms rather than National Video.

我们家每天早餐桌上都摆着一盒脆谷乐。

We had a box of Cheerios on our breakfast table every day of our lives.

我们本可以买下通用磨坊的股票。

We could have bought General Mills.

那真是支绝佳的股票。

What a fantastic stock.

还有那些特别简单的选择。

And then there were the real easy one.

哪个孩子不想去迪士尼乐园呢？

What kid doesn't wanna go to Disney World?

真正让你一直关注这只股票的，是这个因素，而不是有多少人注册了流媒体服务。

It's that factor and not how many people sign up for the streaming service that will always drive you back to the stock.

光是迪士尼的影视库就足以让你想买它的股票了，更别说主题乐园了？

The Disney library alone should be enough to make you wanna own shares in the company, but the theme park?

我的天啊。

I mean, come on.

别把这事儿想得太复杂了。

Let's not outthink this game.

我不太清楚强生的创可贴和洗发水怎么样。

I don't know about Johnson and Johnson's band aids and shampoo.

那些都是日常必需品，不过后来都被卖给了金佰利了。

They were staples and they've since been moved to Kenview.

我那时候就知道，现在也一样清楚，纸巾就是用来擦鼻子的。

I knew then as well as I know now that Kleenex is something you use to wipe your nose.

这是一家不错的企业，金佰利公司。

There's a good company, Kimberly Clark.

这些事，我们根本没人教过我们。

These are things we aren't even taught.

它们是刻在脑子里的。

They're imprinted.

爸爸常去的快餐店。

Father's fast food.

麦当劳显而易见，要是你更倾向天然一点的，那Chipotle也做得非常出色。

McDonald's is obvious or the incredibly well run Chipotle if you want something a little more organic.

说到底，给你孩子买点他们熟悉、你也了解的品牌股票吧。

Bottom line, please buy your kids a few shares in a name brand that they know and you know.

选个他们能看见、能听到、能摸到的东西，然后放好就行。

Something they can see and hear and touch, then put it away.

这只股票不一定总能赚钱。

This stock won't always work out.

但想想你小时候喜欢的东西，或者你父母小时候喜欢的品牌。

But think of what you like when you were little or when your parents like when they were little.

看看这些品牌有没有上市交易。

See if it trades.

你很可能已经找到了一个长期回报不错的投资。

You more than likely have a long term winner.

更重要的是，你找到了一个绝佳的切入点，让孩子从小养成投资的习惯。

More importantly, you've got a great hook to get your children into a lifetime of investing.

我们接一下来自德克萨斯州麦迪逊的来电。

Let's go to Madison in Texas.

麦迪逊。

Madison.

你好，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

如果我买六个月的国债能稳稳拿到超过5%的利息，那在当前市场环境下，为什么还要去炒股呢？

If I can get a guaranteed interest rate of over 5% by purchasing a six month treasury bond, why should I invest in the equities market given market conditions?

说得对。

Okay.

但六个月后，这些利率可能就降下来了。

Because six months from now, those rates may be lower.

你当然可以不断续投，但股市的长期回报远超这个水平。

You can continue to reinvest, but the stock market is far exceeded.

从长远来看，你短期能拿到的那点收益，唉，看看吧。

Longer term, anything that you're gonna get in the short term oh, look.

我并不反对5%的收益。

I'm not against 5%.

我自己也持有不少5%的国债。

I own 5% paper myself.

但我得跟你说清楚。

But I will tell you this.

你得放眼长远，买一些分红不错的股票，比如恩布里奇，或者奥尼克这样的公司，它们不仅有分红，还有增长潜力——国债可没这回事。

You wanna take the long term view, and you can buy a dividend yielding stock that is very good, like an Enbridge, you know, like a OneOak that'll have growth, not just a dividend, no growth on any treasuries.

我们来听听来自罗德岛的安妮。

Let's go to Annie in Rhode Island.

安妮。

Annie.

你好，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

很高兴能和你聊天。

Great to talk.

谢谢你做这些讲解环节。

Thanks for doing these teaching segments.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

谢谢你，安妮。

Thank you, Anne.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这是我该做的。

It's what I gotta do.

我得多讲点，接下来这段时间我打算就这么做。

I gotta teach more, and that's what I intend to do for the rest of this of the run.

怎么了？

What's going on?

嗨。

Hey.

我特别喜欢你讲的技术分析部分，我有两个问题。

Well, I really enjoy the segments you do on technical analysis, and I have two questions.

当然。

Sure.

第一个，如果你想深入学习，有哪些最好的资料？

One, what are the best resources if you wanna study this?

那业余投资者该多大程度上依赖图表，而不是基金的基本面呢？

And how much should an amateur investor rely on charts versus fund fundamentals?

这甚至算不算是专业做法？

Is it even a pro

问得好，先生。

Great question, sir.

听我说。

Look.

我觉得图表对你的分析思路至关重要。

I think charts are integral to your thinking.

我其实主要跟着拉里·威廉姆斯的方法交易。

I I think that I I really trade Larry Williams.

你去谷歌搜一下拉里·威廉姆斯。

You just Google Larry Williams.

他的内容是最好的。

His stuff is the best.

我就是从这些网站上认识了所有那些了不起的人物。

That's where I learned all of the great people we have on have websites.

但说到底，技术分析，我在我上一本书里写了一个非常不错的章节。

But in the end, technical analysis, I think I have a very good chapter in my last book.

在《谨慎致富》这本书里，我也花了大量篇幅讨论技术分析。

And in Get Rich Carefully, I spent a lot of time talking about technical analysis.

这事儿非做不可。

It must be done.

好，就在这儿。

Okay, here it is.

我刚好随身带着这本书。

I happen to have it right with me.

这是我父亲当年靠它吃饭的东西。

This is what my dad sold for a living.

你想想，要是他当初买下这家公司，而不是国家视频，会怎么样？

Can you imagine if he had bought this company three ms instead of National Video?

如果我们当时有葡萄汁的原液，就不必加水稀释了。

We might been have able to not have to dilute the grapefruit, the grape juice, had to put the water in the grape juice.

我那时候根本不知道为什么。

I didn't even know why.

因为我们那时候没有股票和债券。

It's because we didn't have stocks and bonds.

给你的孩子买几股知名品牌公司的股票，让他们能看见、听见、摸得着。

Buy your kids a few shares in a name brand, something they can see and hear and touch.

就像我通过在eBay上找到的这个股票债券游戏学到的那样。

Like I learned with this stocks and bond game that is available on eBay.

说实话，我真希望拥有这个产品的版权。

And believe me, I wish I had the rights.

我自己重新把它以数字形式发布了。

I put it out again myself digitally.

更多《疯狂金钱》的内容还在后头。

There's much more Mad Money ahead.

我今天要分享的是你一生中最重要的投资习惯——无论是青少年时期、退休之后，还是中间的任何阶段。

I'm giving you my best investing habit for the rest of your life, your teens, your retirement, and everything in between.

接下来，我会和我的同事杰夫·马克斯一起回答大家最关心的问题。

And then I'm answering all your burning questions with my colleague, Jeff Marks.

继续关注克拉默。

So stay with Cramer.

嘘——

Boo.

嘘——

Boo.

是的。

Yeah.

吉米·楚。

Jimmy Choo.

您的智慧和教导真是太棒了。

Your wisdom and teaching has been amazing.

你有一种天赋，既出众又富有教育意义。

You have a talent that is superior plus educational.

你的表现堪称顶尖之一。

Yours stands out as being one of the best.

我忍不住要感谢你这些年来的悉心教导。

I can't help but say thanks for all the good years of teachings.

你知道为什么你的节目在全球这么火吗？

You know, why your show is hot around the world?

因为你做事认真，准备充分，这才让大家都赚到了钱。

It's because you do your homework, and that's why you make everybody money.

你做事总是认真准备。

You do your homework.

青少年就是很难管教。

Teenagers are incorrigible.

他们最不想听的，就是关于股票的事。

The last thing they wanna hear about is stocks.

他们有更重要的事要忙。

They have bigger fish to fry.

对此我说，那又怎样？

To which I say, so what?

我不会告诉他们该买什么。

I'm not gonna tell them what to buy.

我要让他们告诉我。

I'm gonna let them tell me.

看这个节目的观众，都从我两个女儿与生俱来的消费洞察力中获益良多。

People watch this show have been huge beneficiaries of the innate consumer wisdom of my two daughters.

我们总是在节目里，尤其是CBC投资俱乐部里，不断寻找新的点子。

We're always searching for ideas both on air and especially for the CBC investment club.

很多点子都来自年轻人、孩子、继子女，他们的喜好和厌恶，往往能透露出很多信息。

Many of those ideas have come from young people, children, stepchildren, their likes and dislikes can tell you a great deal.

所以，我才会那么热衷于买松木多米诺骨牌这只股票，持续了十多年，股价一路走高，直到疫情末期见顶——就像这样，另一个供货渠道。

Hey, that's why I got pine dominoes so passionately for over a decade as the stock wore it higher before peaking at the end of the pandemic like this, the other delivery place.

当然。

Sure.

他刚当上首席执行官那天，我就见了帕特里克·多尔。

I met with Patrick Doyle the day he became CEO.

那时候股价是十美元。

Stock was at $10.

没错。

Yes.

在2010年他重新配方之前，那披萨吃起来真跟纸板一样。

The stuff did taste like cardboard before he reformulated the pizza in 2010.

我特别喜欢那套广告，还跟你说过我觉得这主意不错。

I love that whole line of advertising and told you I thought it was a good spec.

所以没错，我确实推荐过。

So sure, I recommended it.

但真正让这只股票成为《疯狂金钱》明星股的，不是这个。

But that's not what made this stock a Mad Money Crown Jewel.

不是。

Nah.

是技术的原因。

It was the technology.

你看，我的孩子，就像你的孩子，讨厌打电话。

See, my kids, like your kids, hate talking on the phone.

他们觉得打电话的人很落伍。

They think it's for losers.

但应用软件，他们特别喜欢。

But apps, they love them.

当我孩子发现达美乐的应用时，一下子就爱上了。

And when my kid discovered the Domino's app, well, they were sold.

不用跟可能搞错订单的人说话。

No talking to people who might get their order wrong.

也不用紧张。

No nervousness.

不用操心披萨做到哪一步了。

No worries about where their pizza was in the process.

这两点，本地那些老牌店根本做不到。

That's two things that the great local joints couldn't do.

还有给素食者提供的不加奶酪选项，那些人还会再三确认：你真的确定不要奶酪？

And a no cheese option for the vegans, the ones that asked twice about the cheese as in, are you sure you want no cheese?

我觉得这都是因为我孩子。

I think that's because of my kids.

最后，还能在配送员到之前就在线付款，这让人特别舒心。

Finally, there was the joy of being able to pay online before the delivery person got there.

孩子们不想跟钱打交道。

Kids don't wanna fuss with money.

当然，多米诺只是冰山一角。

Of course, Domino's was just the tip of the iceberg.

外卖应用后来彻底改变了整个世界。

The delivery apps went on to take over the world.

不过，这些技术对我来说完全是个谜。

All of this technology was totally lost to me though.

我从不介意打电话，总是耐心等披萨送到，对送餐员的交接也从不在意。

I never minded the phone, was always patient about when the pizza would arrive, never cared about the interchange from delivery person.

简而言之，我根本不是目标用户。

In short, I was not like the target audience.

所以我才开始说，达美乐其实是一家卖披萨的科技公司。

That's why I started calling Domino's a tech company that sells pizza.

不过现在，竞争对手直接把这活儿外包给DoorDash就行了。

Although now competitors can just outsource the darn stuff at DoorDash.

你们很多人知道我是怎么彻底爱上手机应用的。

Many of you know the story of how I got religion on app.

大约二十年前，我最小的女儿要再买一个iPod。

Roughly twenty years ago, my youngest daughter asked for a second iPod.

不是因为她弄丢了——我立刻怀疑她这么干，而是因为她想要另一个颜色的。

Not because she lost it, as I immediately accused her of doing, but because she wanted one in another color for her.

你看，那玩意儿其实是时尚配饰。

See, they were fashion accessories.

她不想让 iPod 和衣服颜色不搭。

She didn't want it to clash with her outfits.

个人电脑？

Personal computers?

我的天，这话说得也太离谱了。

I mean, come on.

我以前的公司都没怎么看好苹果，但我孩子好多年都宁死也不愿用 Windows 电脑。

My various employers have never embraced Apple, but my kids, for a long time, they'd rather be caught dead than use a Windows machine.

他们只想要苹果的产品。

They only wanted backs.

iPhone 当时更有争议。

The iPhone was more controversial.

他们就是不喜欢改变。

They don't like change.

他们不喜欢那个插头的改动。

They didn't like the plug change.

他们不想要耳机，但真正让他们反感的是三星。

They didn't want the earbuds, but what they really don't want is the Samsung.

你看，他们属于苹果生态体系，那个总被嘲笑、被忽视的苹果生态，靠它的服务和充电器逼着用户花钱存储上百万张照片。

See, they're part of the Apple ecosystem, the much derided, much ignored Apple ecosystem with its service chargers that make it so they have to pay to store all their millions of pictures.

还有别的吗？

What else?

太棒了。

Fabulous.

你去网上搜一下吧，爸。

Google it, dad.

对啊。

Yeah.

我就是这么知道谷歌的，现在叫字母表公司了。

That's how I found out about Google, now Alphabet.

后来我听孩子们说，学校不准他们搜索跟学业有关的内容。

And when I got the word from the kids, they weren't allowed to Google something that they were involved in school.

那算我一个。

Well, just count me in.

我当年在哈佛写毕业论文的时候，为了装装样子，说我们能用霍顿图书馆那帮超棒的馆员。

When I was doing my senior thesis at Harvard, to do some mindless name dropping, we had access to the fabulous librarians at Houghton.

他们的工作是什么？

Their job?

帮你找任何你想查的东西。

To look up anything you wanted.

得亲自去书库——那时候叫书库——帮你翻出你知道该去哪儿找的资料。

They had to go to the stacks for you as they were called, and find out things that you would know where to look for.

现在这些全数字化了。

Well, that's all digital now.

我孩子看新闻靠iPhone，追剧全靠Netflix。

My kids get their news from their iPhones, and they get their entertainment from Netflix.

不是。

No.

方这个东西并不是他们完全原创的。

Fang wasn't purely their creation.

我搞懂了亚马逊。

I figured out Amazon.

至于Facebook，就像我说的，它是从哈佛开始的。

But Facebook, like I said, it went to Harvard.

你大一的时候，拿到一本小册子。

When you were a freshman, got a book.

那本册子叫Facebook，里面全是大家的照片。

It was called Facebook, and it had everybody's picture in.

现在的Facebook，就是从那个小册子演变来的。

Facebook is a derivation of that Facebook.

我孩子很早就用Facebook了。

My kids were on Facebook earlier.

我最小的孩子很早就厌倦了Facebook，大概是因为我先上了这个平台。

My youngest got sick of Facebook early on, probably because I got on it.

但她后来转去了Instagram，而Facebook精明地收购了它，却还故意把它保持成独立的样子。

But then she went on to Instagram, which Facebook cleverly acquired and then kept this something separate.

所以你根本没意识到，这其实是长辈们早就发现的东西。

So you really didn't know it was part of something that older people had discovered.

我一直不觉得广告有用，直到我们被一堆红辣椒周边产品刷屏——那东西是我女儿说的，不是广告，只是个链接。

I didn't think the ads worked until we were inundated with red hot chili pepper merchandise bought on a clip for something that is my daughter said wasn't an ad, just a link.

天哪，难道别人都梦见过自己的广告被当成普通链接吗？

Oh lord, does everyone else dream that their ad is just a link?

但似乎只有马克·扎克伯格真正考虑过用户体验，所以他的广告才有效，因为它们真的说得通。

But it seems that only Mark Zuckerberg has the forethought to care about the user experience to such the extent that it works because the ads actually make sense.

你就是会想点进去。

You do wanna click on them.

那Chipotle呢？

How about Chipotle?

孩子们特别喜欢Chipotle新鲜有机的沙拉，到现在还是这样。

The kids love the fresh and organic Chipotle salads, still do.

他们是素食者。

They're vegetarians.

在那几次食物中毒事件后，我小女儿很快就又回去吃了。

My youngest returned pretty early after the food sickening incidents.

唯一的不同是，她不再堂食了，因为她不想被人看到在里面。

The only difference being that she didn't take out because she didn't want to be seen inside.

好吧。

Alright.

改成外带了。

Went take out.

那些照片其实哪儿都不完美。

Nothing's perfect about the pics.

但我还是从几百块的价位就开始推荐这只股票，一路看到两千，主要就是因为她们太喜欢了。

But I recommended this stock from the low hundreds all the way to 2,000 largely because they liked it so much.

总有一天，你的孩子会超出这个核心消费群体的年龄范围。

Eventually, your kids will age out of the key demographic.

但只要你留意他们的喜好，就能找到几十年都靠谱的投资标的。

However, if you pay attention to their likes and dislikes, you could get yourself decades worth of good stock picks.

等他们到了一定年纪，如果你想获得最新潮的点子，就得指望孙子辈了。

But once they reach a certain age, you need to pray for grandchildren if you want the freshest ideas.

要是这些产品本身并不怎么样呢？

What if the pics themselves aren't any good?

要是它们是孩子自己挑中的呢？

What if they're earned?

比如你孩子喜欢戴在头上拍照的设备，或者戴在手腕上计步的装置。

That your kid likes a device that fits on your head and takes pictures or it fits on a wrist and measures steps.

我也不确定。

I don't know.

这就是学习的代价。

Hey, that's the cost of learning.

记住，就算搞砸了，他们这辈子还长着呢，迟早能赚回来。

Remember, they have their whole lives ahead of them to make that money back if it's a screw up.

你看，这就是青少年投资的妙处。

You see, that's the beauty of teen investing.

亏了也没人会发现。

You can lose it and no one will notice.

等你年纪大了再这么干，可就真出问题了，就像我现在这样。

You pull the same kind of thing later in life and it's real consequences like here for me.

所以总的来说，从现在开始，你可以向你的青少年孩子学习。

So the bottom line is that from now, you can learn from your teenage children.

相信我。

Trust me.

和他们一起投资，你绝对不会后悔。

Invest with them, and you will not regret it.

广告后，《疯狂金钱》继续。

Mad Money is back after the break.

接下来，你是不是在纠结哪种投资适合你的年龄阶段？

Coming up, are you trying to figure out which kinds of investments are right for your age?

那就不用再找了。

Well, look no further.

接下来由克拉默教授来接手这个话题。

Professor Cramer is taking up the assignment next.

晚上好，克拉默先生。

Good evening, mister Cramer.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢你所做的一切。

Thank you for everything you do.

你的讲解一直为我们提供了宝贵的资讯。

You've been such a wonderful source of information with your teachings.

我必须说声谢谢。

I have to say thanks.

感谢你的建议，救了我们的健康。

Thank you for all your advice and saving us from our health.

你的建议让我辞掉了那份讨厌的工作。

Your advice, let me quit a job that I hated.

我真的很感激你。

I love you to death.

谢谢你所做的一切。

Thank you for everything you do.

谢谢你让我们赚了钱。

Thanks for making us money.

更重要的是，谢谢你让我们避免了亏钱。

More importantly, thanks for keeping us from losing money.

整晚我都在跟你讨论合适的投资。

All night, I've been talking to you about suitability.

考虑到你的风险承受能力，尤其是你的年龄，什么样的投资才合适？或者当你为孩子选股票、激发他们对市场的兴趣时，又该怎么做？

What's a suitable investment given your tolerance for risk and especially your age or when you're picking stocks for your kids to get them interested in the market?

那我们余下的人生呢？

So how about the rest of our lives?

可惜的是，年纪越大，选择就越少。

Sadly, as you get older, you have less flexibility.

真正适合的投资确实没那么多了。

Fewer investments are indeed suitable.

但刚开始可不是这样。

Not initially though.

你上大学的时候，我根本不会指望你存什么钱。

When you're in college, I don't expect you to put any money away at all.

大学开支实在太高了。

College costs too much.

我当年上大学、一边打工一边想重新起步时，还试着劝人买一两股股票。

When I used to be doing my college chores, trying to get back in that game, I tried to get people to buy a share or two of a stock.

可大学在财务上真的会把你榨得一干二净。

But college saps the living daylights out of you in so many financial ways.

我现在觉得，连想存钱都是一种折磨。

I now regard it as a total hardship to even contemplate savings.

但一旦踏入社会，存钱就变得至关重要了，最好通过公司提供的401(k)计划，或者更推荐自己操作的个人退休账户。

But once you're out in the real world, it's imperative that you save, preferably through a four zero one k plan at work or even better, a self directed IRA.

我更倾向后者，因为你可以自己选股票，而不是只能挑雇主提供的那几个选项，不过通常手续费很高，会严重拖累你的收益。

Now, see, I always prefer the latter because you can pick stocks, not just pick from options chosen by your employer, but typically have high fees that really knock your return down.

这个话题我们另说。

That's for another show.

这时候你就得开始把指数基金和个股搭配着投了。

This is where you have to begin the mix of index funds and individual stocks.

记住，我两个都推荐。

Remember, I prefer both.

光靠自己挑几只个股来建仓，风险实在太大了。

There's too much risk in individual stocks to just put together a portfolio of names of your own choosing.

所以，我要求你，从第一份工作的第一笔积蓄里，至少拿出十块钱投进指数基金。

So at a minimum, I am demanding that you put your first $10 of savings from your first job into an index fund.

我最喜欢的数字是500，之前也说过。

The estimate of 500 being my favorite, as I've mentioned before.

我知道有人会对此有不同意见。

Now I know that some will argue with this.

我在社交媒体上经常看到他们在争论。

I see them arguing on social media.

我不在乎。

I don't care.

我知道真相是什么。

I know the truth.

在二十多岁的时候，就因为一只糟糕的股票把你的积蓄搞垮，风险实在太高了。

The possibility of one really bad stock hurting your nest egg, even as early as in your twenties, is simply too risky.

只要有一笔像样的资金投入指数基金，单只股票甚至整个行业都没法对你造成致命打击。

With a nice slug of cash and index fund, no single stock or even sector can do that.

但在你攒够第一笔一万美元之后，剩下的钱我建议你投一些股票，而且一定要分散投资。

But with the rest of your money behind your first that after that first $10,000, I do like stocks, and I do want you to be diversified.

所以我们在节目中经常聊分散投资，我会用很简单的方式解释什么是分散投资。

And that's why we play at my diverser around here when we can, where I try to explain what diversification is in a pretty easy way.

这也是我们创建CBC投资俱乐部的原因，用我那个信托基金做例子，教你怎么投资。

It's why we created the CBC Investing Club to show you how to invest using my chapel trust as an example.

虽然这个信托基金有很多限制，防止我像《火线》里常说的那样，拿数据做手脚——那可是我最爱的剧之一。

Although the trust has a lot of restrictions to prevent me from using the show to juke the stats as they say in one of my favorites, The Wire.

但我要告诉你，如果你真想深入研究个股，这个投资俱乐部就是最好的选择，我在这档节目里经常提到它。

But I can tell you that if you want in-depth work on stocks, I frequently mention on this show, the investment club is the way to go.

我设立它，是因为我总在说‘买入并跟进’。

So I set it up because I always talk about buy and homework.

我告诉你得买股票，但买完之后你还得持续关注它。

I tell you that you need to buy a stock, but then you have to keep up with it.

光买不动可不行。

Buy and hold doesn't work.

还记得之前我讲过，做研究有多难吗？

Remember back to earlier in the show when I discussed how hard it was to do the homework?

以前还得跑去哈佛商学院图书馆，翻几个月前的微缩胶片做研究？

Those trips to the Harvard Business School Library to study months old research in microfiche?

现在太方便了，我都不得不放弃我以前的一个投资准则。

Now it's so easy that I've had to scrap one of my earlier road rules.

你不再需要每周花一小时研究每一只股票了。

You no longer need to spend an hour a week studying each of your stocks.

当然，你还是得听公司电话会议。

Sure, you need to read the conference calls.

网上能搜到的文章多到数不清。

You can Google article galore.

多到你很快就会对这事儿感到厌烦。

So many that that you'll get sick of the process very quickly.

现在文章和研究报告会主动推给你，还有图表——这些是我三十年前想都不敢想的。

You can have articles and research pushed to you along with charts that I only could have dreamed of having thirty years ago.

或者你也可以读我们投资俱乐部写的内容。

Or you can read what we write at the investing club.

让我们帮您做好功课。

Let us help you do the homework.

无论哪种方式让您在打理财务时更安心，我都支持。

Whatever makes you the most comfortable in your efforts to take charge of your money is what I favor.

记住，我希望您要么做个精明的理财者，要么做个明智的客户。

Remember, I want you to be either a good manager of your money or a good client.

我对这两种选择没有偏好。

I do not have a preference.

那我们来聊聊随着年龄增长，该怎么选股票。

So let's talk about picking stocks as you get older.

到了这个阶段，您得真正了解自己能承受多大的风险。

It it it's at this stage when you need to know thyself in terms of risk.

在您年满二十八岁之前，我建议您大胆承担风险，甚至比您觉得自己能承受的还要多——不管您喜不喜欢，因为万一亏了，您还有大半辈子的时间去赚回来。

Until you get to the late twenties at the earliest, I want you to take tons of risk, maybe more than you think you can handle, whether you like it or not because you've got your whole life to make that money back if something goes wrong.

但到了二十八岁以后，我只能请您认真想想，市场大跌时您会怎么应对。

But when you get to your late twenties, all I can do is ask you to think about what you'll do in a sell off.

你有本事在市场下跌时还能加仓买入吗？

Do you have the wherewithal to take a decline and buy more?

还是说，市场一崩你就受不了，恨不得自己一点都没投？

Or does the sell off sicken you and make you wish you had no exposure?

你能接受股票会下跌吗？

Can you accept that stocks go down?

这问题一点都不傻，毕竟股票长期来看通常是上涨的，只是中间总会时不时地跌一跌，还特别难受。

Not a silly question given how they typically do go up over a period albeit with periodic smooth periodic smoothies down that are painful.

这些关键问题，只有你自己才能回答清楚。

These are crucial questions that only you can answer about yourself.

等你攒够了第一笔一万美元的指数基金后，我希望你多承担点风险，买些有增长潜力的个股。

I would like you to take more risk and own more individual stocks that have growth characteristics once you put away that first 10,000 index fund.

但到了快三十岁的时候，我可不希望你把超过百分之二十的‘疯钱’投到高风险的成长股里。

But once you're in your late twenties, I would hate to see you commit more than 20% of your money, your Mad Money, to speculative growth stocks.

随着年纪增长，我希望你通过持有派发股息的股票，获得更多稳定收入。

As you get older, I want you to capture more income by owning stocks that pay dividends.

也许可以考虑加入一只股息收益率高于标普500的基金，但别急着下手。

Perhaps add a fund that posts of high dividends than the S and P 500 offers, but don't be too quick to do so.

事实上，我建议你等到三十岁以后再开始考虑收益型投资。

In fact, I wouldn't advise you to start investing for income until your thirties.

即便到了那时，也要慢慢来，从小额开始。

And even then, you should do it gradually and small.

只有到了四十岁，我才建议你把债券加入投资组合。

Only in your forties do I want to introduce bonds to your portfolio.

在过去，要是劝人三十岁还不开始配置固定收益资产，甚至拖到四十岁，听起来可能太激进了。

Now in the old days, would have been harsh to suggest you don't start investing in fixed income by your thirties, let alone your forties.

但这种老观念现在有两个问题。

But the problem with that is twofold.

第一，人的寿命变长了，很多人退休后活得比积蓄还久。

First, life expectancy, many people are outrunning their fortunes.

再者，债券市场本身也没多少真正低风险的固定收益选择，大多都藏着不小的风险。

And the bond market itself, There aren't always a lot of risk free fixed income alternatives that don't entail a lot of risk.

一般来说，我更愿意持有那种能不断提高分红的高收益股票，而不是一支只靠4%收益率的三十年期国债。

Generally, I'd rather own a high yielding dividend stock that can raise its payout rather than a thirty year treasury bond that yields, say, 4%.

当然，随着年龄增长，我也明白大多数债券确实有保本的特性。

Of course, as you get older, I recognize that most bonds do have that noncaveat emptor provision.

债券到期后，你的本金是能拿回来的。

You can and do get your money back.

但股票可没法保证这一点。

You can't say that with stocks.

到了六十岁左右，把一半资产配置到债券里是很自然的事，之后每过十年还可以再增加百分之十的债券比例。

As you enter your sixties, it's easy to see how you can put up to 50% of your money into bonds and take bonds up to 10% more each decade.

这就又回到了‘适配性’这个概念上。

That brings us back to the notion of suitability.

如果你承受不了风险，觉得股市已经不像过去那样可靠了——毕竟它总经历大起大落，回头一看那些恐慌似乎都被夸大了——那你就得自己判断，是该清仓，还是把股票降到最低比例。

If you can't handle the risk, if you think the stock market is simply not as legitimate an asset class as it once was, because it is prone to such deep valleys and what in retrospect look like overblown threats, then I think you have to decide yourself if cashing out or taking stocks to minimum levels is right for you.

如果真是这样，我也完全理解，毕竟股市确实是个充满不确定性的资产。

And I can't blame you if that's the case because it has been an uncertain asset.

说到底，这是你的生活，不是我的。

The bottom line, it's your life, not mine.

找到你能安心接受的方式，但在中年之前，适当冒险依然是你最好的伙伴。

So get comfortable with what you can live with, but risk at least until your middle years should remain your best friend.

我们简单带一下。

Let's dip it quick.

吉姆·克莱默，股市狂热分子。

Jim Cramer, the diehard of the dolls.

嘿，吉米。

Hey, Jimmy.

很喜欢这个节目。

Love the show.

我五岁的孙子特别爱看你的节目。

My five year old grandson loves to watch your show.

你抓住机会赚钱的时候，真得谢谢你。

I have to thank you for making us money when it's there to be made.

有你在，这个世界变得更美好了。

Our world is a better place with you in it.

我总说，我最喜欢节目的一部分，就是直接回答你们的问题。

I always say my favorite part of the show is answering questions directly from you.

今晚，我请来了杰夫·马克斯，我的投资分析师兼搭档。

And tonight, I'm bringing in Jeff Marks, my portfolio analyst and partner in crime.

让他来帮你们解答一些最迫切的问题。

Help me answer some of your most burning questions.

各位加入投资俱乐部的观众，杰夫需要做个自我介绍。

Now look, for those of you who are part of the investing club, Jeff will need to do an introduction.

还没加入的观众，我希望你们能考虑一下。

For those of you who aren't members, I hope you will yeah.

当然，我真心希望你们能加入。

Of course, I want you to join.

杰夫的见解和我们之间的互动，让我和他都能为《疯狂金钱》的观众做得更好，但更重要的是，为俱乐部的成员们提供真正有价值的内容，这正是我们一直在做的事。

I would say that Jeff's insights and our back and forth helped me do a great job and him do a great for all Mad Money viewers, but more importantly for members of the club because this is what we really do.

如果你喜欢这个，一定要点赞。我是说，就像我去餐厅吃饭，你也得这么做一样。

Now if you like this, be sure to this thing, you know, I mean, like I like when you go to like I went to a restaurant, you had to do it.

你知道的，是我的孩子们教我怎么操作的。

You know, my kids showed me how to do it.

好了。

Alright.

首先，我年纪比较大。

So first up, I'm older.

首先，我们来看看北卡罗来纳州的托尼的问题。他问，在亏损的情况下，固执己见和止损后再重新评估有什么区别？

First up, we have Tony in North Carolina who asks, in a losing position, what is the difference between being stubborn or taking the loss and then revisiting?

好的。

Okay.

这确实是个根本性的问题。

Well, this is a fundamental question.

你看，很多人最后搞混的一点是，止损。如果你发现基本面在恶化，那就应该止损。

See, in the end, what a lot of people confuse is taking a loss, you take a loss if you find that the fundamentals are deteriorating.

你不是因为实在扛不住了才割肉的。

You don't take a loss because it's like you can't take it anymore.

所以我觉得，如果一个仓位已经变了样，那你早就该离场了。

So, I think that this notion of a losing position, if it's a position where things have changed, you should have taken it.

我们有时候犯的错，就是没注意到公司内部已经发生了变化。

We have made the mistake at times of not identifying that there are changes at a company.

没错。

Right.

但我们不喜欢把公司或股票简单地贴上输家或赢家的标签，事实上，我们最成功的几笔投资，当初都是被人看衰的。

But we don't like to view a company as a loser or a winner, and a stock is loser winner because some of our greatest picks have been losers.

当然。

Sure.

确实有表现崩盘的股票。

There's broken stocks.

也有经营出问题的公司。

There's broken companies.

你得明白，如果问题是公司本身或整个行业的结构性问题，那你死扛着不放就是固执了。

What you have to identify is that if the issue at hand is a structural issue at the company, structural issue at the industry level, then that you're being stubborn if you hold on for too long.

对。

Right.

但如果你坚持下去，而公司最终能扭转局面，这反而可能是个绝佳的买入机会。

But it could present itself to be a great buying opportunity if you stick with it and the company is able to fix itself up.

我们确实有过很多这样的案例。

And we've had those, many of those over time.

好的。

Alright.

现在我们来看看你提到的几个公司。

Now we're taking a look at some of our of your mad mentions.

我们来听听艾萨克说的，吉姆博——这是家里人都这么叫我。

So let's go to Isaac who says, Jimbo, which is what everybody me at home, by way.

吉姆博，我全家都特别喜欢你的节目。

Jimbo, my whole family loves your show.

谢谢。

Thank you.

过去三十年里，我每买或卖一只股票，都会先看看你有没有提过它。

I don't think I bought or sold anything in the past thirty years without checking to see if you said anything about the stock.

这正是我最喜欢的地方。

Now this is what I love.

你看，艾萨克把我们当成一个信息来源，虽然是众多来源中的一个。

See, Isaac uses us as a resource, one of many resources.

我从没说自己是先知。

I have never claimed to be the seer.

我确实说过，顺便说一句，有人在这儿打断我说，你真是个特别会逗人开心的人。

I have claimed and by the way, someone someone stopped this point and says, you know, you're a great entertainer.

我喜欢逗大家开心，把人吸引过来。

Well, I I like to entertain you to bring people in.

但我希望，我并不仅仅是个会逗乐的人。

I'd like to think that I'm not just a great entertainer.

但我想要强调的是，你最好去查一查。

But what I would point out is that I want you to check.

你真的应该去查一下。

You should check.

也许我们之前提到过什么。

Maybe we've said something.

我们提供的是信息。

We're input.

我们就是这么个角色。

That's what we are.

我们算是一种信息来源。

We are an input.

我们是信息来源吗？

Are we the input?

不是。

No.

但我相信，我们在做股票决策时是一个重要的参考依据。

But we are an important input, I believe, in making stock decisions.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

我们是在做功课，教你怎么做，让你在家不用再从头摸索。

It's doing the homework, showing you how to do the homework so you at home don't have to.

对。

Right.

你

You

还是得自己做，但我们能给你指个方向。

still have to, but it's a it's a guiding hand.

对。

Right.

你看。

Look.

我老说，很多人觉得干脆买指数基金得了，但我不同意这个观点。

I always I always say that if you want that there are people a lot of people say just own index funds.

我不同意。

I disagree with that.

总有人想自己买股票。

There are always people gonna wanna own stocks.

你想投资股票吗？

You wanna own stocks?

看看这个节目。

Watch the show.

你还记得那个俱乐部吧。

You remember the club.

你会做得好得多。

You'll be much better at it.

好的。

Alright.

接下来是来自佛罗里达的蕾切尔的问题，她说：嗨，吉姆。

Next up, we're taking question from Rachel in Florida who says, hi, Jim.

我们的投资时间跨度超过三十年。

We have a thirty year plus time horizon.

我们继承了一笔钱，平时用不上。

We inherited some money we don't need to live on.

吉姆会建议不要把25%的资金投入标普指数，其余的都放在股票和债券里吗？

Does Jim advise against investing 25% money into S and P and the rest in stocks and bonds?

明白了。

Okay.

这非常关键。

This is really important.

对吧？

Right?

现在，三十年以上的投资周期。

Now, thirty year plus time rise.

股票，没错。

Stocks, yes.

对。

Yeah.

债券，不用。

Bonds, no.

你不到很老的时候，根本不需要买债券。

You don't need bonds until you get very old.

这正是我和大多数所谓理财专家意见完全相左的地方。

This is one of the points where I am definitely at odds with most of the so called Sears out there.

我说，当你大量买入债券时，其实是在跟自己的寿命对赌。

I say that when you buy a lot of bonds, you're betting against your life.

如果你觉得自己活不到72岁，那65岁的时候买债券确实可以。

If you think you're going to pass away and when you're 72, then it's 65, yes, buy bonds.

我希望人们能保持年轻的心态。

I want people to think young.

我知道这话听起来有点天真，但我这么说是因为，如果你二十年来一直持有债券，最后却不得不住进长期护理机构，你的钱根本不够用。

I know that sounds almost Pollyanna, but the reason why I say it is because if you have to go into a long term care facility and you own bonds for the previous twenty years, you don't have enough money.

从历史上看，股票的表现一直优于债券。

Stocks historically have outperformed bonds.

三十年的长期投资周期。

Thirty years long term time horizon.

你还有一个优势，就是不需要靠这笔钱来生活。

The key line too, you're fortunate enough where you don't need to live off that money.

这意味着你不必在市场下跌时被迫卖出资产。

That means you don't have the risk of selling it in a potential market downturn.

你可以持续持有，时间一长，收益通常会很不错。

You can stay invested in the market and over time, you should do quite well.

对。

Yeah.

我明白。

I know.

说实话，这其实是个陷阱问题，因为没人愿意谈论死亡。

Look, I I think that when you it's really a trick question because people don't really like to talk about mortality.

但真正重要的是，如果你活得久，五十岁、六十岁的时候全靠债券养老，那你迟早会穷光蛋。

But what really does matter is is that if you have a long life and you've cashed in on bonds in your fifties and sixties, you you you're gonna be broke.

你会一无所有的。

You'll be broke.

只要你坚持这个长期视角，靠股票熬过波动，你最终的表现一定会超过债券。

As long as you take that horizon, you can ride things out with stocks, and I think you outperform bonds.

总之，谢谢你，杰夫。

Anyway, thank you, Jeff.

我始终相信，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我向你保证，就在这档《疯狂金钱》节目里，我会帮你找出来。

I'd to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to try to find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默，我们下期再见。

I'm Jim Cramer, and we'll see you next time.

吉姆·克拉默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

您不应将克拉默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克拉默的观点基于他所认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证这些信息的完整性和准确性，因此不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/mad-money-disclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit c n b c dot com forward slash mad money disclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与Boardroom携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育未来的新理念与战略。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports plan.