Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/3/26 封面

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/3/26

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/3/26

本集简介

聆听吉姆·克雷默为您拨开华尔街投资迷雾的个人指南,把握机遇、规避陷阱,唯一目标:助您赚钱。 Mad Money 免责声明 由Simplecast(AdsWizz公司旗下)提供支持。有关我们为广告目的收集和使用个人信息的详情,请访问 pcm.adswizz.com。

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

这是经济的一个关键时刻。

A key moment for the economy.

Speaker 0

五月的就业数据会如何影响美联储的首次决策?

How might the May jobs data influence the first Worschfed decision?

Speaker 0

就业数据与分析。

Employment numbers and analysis.

Speaker 0

《Squawk Box》周五早上8点30分东部时间播出,CNBC Plus同步直播。

Squawk Box, Friday, 08:30AM eastern, and streaming on CNBC Plus.

Speaker 1

我的目标很简单,就是帮你赚钱。

My mission is simple, to make you money.

Speaker 1

我在这里是为了让所有投资者都能站在同一起跑线上。

I'm here to level the playing field for

Speaker 2

所有投资者。

all investors.

Speaker 2

每年夏天都有一堆功课,但我保证会帮你搞定。

There's always a homework at Summer, and I promise to help

Speaker 1

你就能找到。

you find it.

Speaker 1

《疯狂金钱》现在开始。

Mad Money starts now.

Speaker 1

嗨。

Hey.

Speaker 1

我是克莱默。

I'm Cramer.

Speaker 1

欢迎收看《疯狂金钱》。

Welcome to Mad Money.

Speaker 1

欢迎来到克莱默的世界。

Welcome to Cramer.

Speaker 1

别人交朋友,我只想帮你省点钱。

Other people make friends, I'm just trying to save you some money.

Speaker 1

我的工作不只是让你开心,更要让你学到东西,帮你度过这些艰难的日子。

My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you, get you through some of these tough days.

Speaker 1

给我打电话,号码是43 Tweet。

Call me at 43 Tweet.

Speaker 1

吉姆·克拉默。

Jim Cramer.

Speaker 1

牛市可能因为商业环境、利率或地缘政治动荡而终结。

Bull markets can be killed by business conditions or interest rates or geopolitical turmoil.

Speaker 1

但最轻易把牛市推向绝境的,往往是新股票供应过多。

But the thing that most easily leads them to the slaughterhouse is an excess of new supply.

Speaker 1

新股太多,买家却不够。

Too many new shares, not enough buyers.

Speaker 1

就像任何市场一样,供过于求时,价格就会直线下跌,买家撑不住了就撤了。

Like any market, when supply outstrips demand, prices go right down as buyers get overwhelmed and they go home.

Speaker 1

我今天看到,Anthropic正挑选承销商准备上市,而就在同一时间,Alphabet刚抛出一大笔股票,正好撞上下周即将进行的SpaceXIPO,我担心股票供应真会压垮投资者的需求。

So what I read today that anthropic is picking brokers to come public at the same time that Alphabet just placed a gigantic slug of stock right on top of the pending SpaceX IPO next week, I get concerned that stock supply will indeed overwhelm investor demand.

Speaker 1

而且,市场上还到处在传OpenAI也要紧跟着搞IPO。

Plus, there's plenty of talk about OpenAI doing an IPO right on top of the others.

Speaker 1

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 1

我觉得这可能是道指今天暴跌621点的主要原因。

I think that's maybe the major reason why the Dow lost 621 points today.

Speaker 1

标普500跌了7.4%,纳斯达克跌了8.9%。

The S and B shed point 74%, and the Nasdaq dropped point 89%.

Speaker 1

今天市场表现非常糟糕。

It was a very ugly session.

Speaker 1

听我说。

Listen.

Speaker 1

我并不怪这些公司想筹钱。

I don't blame any of these companies for wanting to raise money.

Speaker 1

事实上,如果我是他们的竞争对手,比如亚马逊或者微软,我可能也会想筹点资金。

In fact, if I were their competitor, say Amazon or Microsoft, I'd probably wanna raise some money too.

Speaker 1

至少为了不被落下,不过我得补充一句,这两家公司都没透露过要发股票。

If only to stay competitive, although I should add neither companies communicated that they might issue stock.

Speaker 1

就像思科的首席执行官查克·罗宾斯昨晚说的,这些公司别无选择。

As Chuck Robbins, the CEO of Cisco, told us last night, these companies have no choice.

Speaker 1

这关乎生死存亡。

It's existential.

Speaker 1

他们必须扩大自己的业务布局。

They need to build out their footprint.

Speaker 1

必须提升算力,不然迟早会被甩在后面,彻底输给对手。

They need to compute or else they might wither on the vine and certainly get beat by the others.

Speaker 1

所以他们非得筹钱不可,不然就干不下去。

So they have to raise money just to get the job done or else.

Speaker 1

我能理解他们为什么这么想。

I get why they feel that way.

Speaker 1

我只是担心,市场上真有那么多资金能撑住这么多IPO和增发,而不把市场进一步压到更低的水平吗?

I just wonder if there's enough money to support all these IPOs and secondary offerings without knocking back this market to maybe even much lower levels.

Speaker 1

不过,今天阿尔法贝特的股价表现,倒是可以让人稍微松口气。

Now we should be heartened by what happened to the stock of Alphabet today.

Speaker 1

他们短短时间内就筹到了450亿美元,离目标850亿还差不少,而且定价后股价还短暂上涨了。

They were able to raise some $45,000,000,000 out of 85,000,000,000 that they wanna raise totally, pretty much in a snap, and the stock even traded up briefly after the pricing.

Speaker 1

也许是因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦买了100亿美元的股份。

Perhaps that's because Berkshire Hathaway bought $10,000,000,000 worth.

Speaker 1

这算是个不错的背书,哪怕来的是格雷格·阿贝尔,而不是沃伦·巴菲特本人。

Good imprimatur, even if it's the Greg Abel brought Berkshire and not the Warren Buffett version.

Speaker 1

我觉得高盛在这笔交易上的承销做得非常出色。

I think Goldman Sachs did a remarkable job placing that deal.

Speaker 1

关键是,谷歌母公司能轻松融到大笔资金,市场对这种资金需求根本没当回事。

Point is, Alphabet could raise serious money and look at the action, the stocking problem, you know, barely notice.

Speaker 1

这算是这些公司首次尝试,开了个好头。

It was the first though in the shoot for these companies.

Speaker 1

这步棋走得真聪明。

That was a really smart move.

Speaker 1

我对SpaceX这笔融资的市场反应挺乐观的,至少目前是这样,后面再细说。

I'm heartened by the way that the SpaceX deal is being talked about, at least to a point, more on that later.

Speaker 1

我敢打赌,肯定有不少资金会涌进来,让这次IPO大获成功。

I bet there'll be plenty of money around to make that IPO a success.

Speaker 1

你知道吗,我特别看好Anthropic这家公司。

You know I'm a big fan of Anthropic.

Speaker 1

这家公司做B2B的人工智能业务,收入渠道多,赚钱潜力很大。

It looks like this company can make a lot of money as a business to business AI play with many lucrative revenue streams.

Speaker 1

如果今年就它一家大公司上市,我肯定全力跟进。

If all if it was the only big IPO this year, I'd be all over it.

Speaker 1

但夹在SpaceX和可能的OpenAI之间,我得稍微冷静一点。

But sandwiched between SpaceX and perhaps OpenAI, I I gotta be a little less enthusiastic.

Speaker 1

更让人担心的是,OpenAI看到融资这么容易,可能会趁机行动,而那家公司可是亏钱大户。

Then you have to start worrying that OpenAI will see how easy it is to raise money and decide to take advantage of the moment, and that company loses a ton of money.

Speaker 1

这可能会是个意外,但未必是好事。

Could be a real surprise, not necessarily a good one.

Speaker 1

而且我还担心,微软和亚马逊也可能像Alphabet那样抛售股票。

And again, I also fear that Microsoft and Amazon will sell some stock like Alphabet did.

Speaker 1

他们花这么多钱建数据中心,可能得靠增发股票来筹钱。

They're spending so much building building these data centers that they may need to raise equity in order to pay for it.

Speaker 1

不过呢,我这儿有个好消息。

That said, okay, I've got some good news here.

Speaker 1

让我把这事儿说清楚。

I'm gonna put this in context.

Speaker 1

我不想吓到你,或者任何人。

I don't wanna scare you or anybody.

Speaker 1

等这些公司把融资做完,2026年的大额募资就基本过去了,资金压力也能缓一缓。

Once these companies are done with their issuance, we'll have gotten through the big fundraisers for 2026, and the bulk can come back.

Speaker 1

但现在看日程,我不确定市场能不能撑住这么多融资,不被拖下水。

Right now, though, looking at the calendar, I don't know how we're gonna afford all these deals without taking the market lower.

Speaker 1

一次性涌进的资金太多了。

It's too much capital at once.

Speaker 1

这会导致一连串的增发,公司内部人和企业本身都会继续抛股票。

It's gonna lead to multiple follow on offerings, meaning more stock both from the insiders and the companies themselves.

Speaker 1

现在我来谈谈,如果你是这些公司中的一家,可能会发生什么。

Now let me go over what could happen here if you're one of these companies.

Speaker 1

你现在是在跟时间赛跑。

You're now in a race.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

你得赶在别人前面把交易搞定。

You have to get your deal done before the other guy.

Speaker 1

如果他们想继续投资AI,又不想缺钱,就得抓紧时间;拖得太久,股票价格就卖不上去了。

It's too crucial if they wanna keep spending on AI, have enough money, and if they wait too long, they won't get a good price for their stock.

Speaker 1

这正是问题的核心。

That's what this is really about.

Speaker 1

这是一场竞速赛。

It's foot a race.

Speaker 1

目前真正有资格参与的公司没几个。

We only have a few companies that are in the hunt.

Speaker 1

谷歌、亚马逊、Anthropic、微软、OpenAI 和 SpaceX。

Alphabet, Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

Speaker 1

六家公司。

Six companies.

Speaker 1

就这六家。

Six companies.

Speaker 1

这六家公司加起来,估计得筹集六万亿美元,才能支撑下一阶段数据中心的建设。

Between them, I think they possibly need to raise $600,000,000,000 to cover the next phase of the data center rollout.

Speaker 1

一千亿,甚至更多。

100,000,000,000, maybe more.

Speaker 1

真有六万亿美元的现金,随时能投进这些公司,通过各种投行和银行运作吗?

Is there $600,000,000,000 relying around in cash, ready to be put to work in these companies and all the different brokers and banks?

Speaker 1

我觉得没那么多。

I doubt it.

Speaker 1

当然了。

Sure.

Speaker 1

市场上闲置的资金很多,流动性也很充足,要不是这样,他们根本不可能这么轻松地筹到这笔钱。

There is plenty of idle cash, lots of liquidity out that couldn't have raised that money so easy if it weren't.

Speaker 1

我说过,SpaceX能轻松融到大笔资金,全靠马斯克的名气。

I've said that SpaceX will be able to raise tons of money because of the cold of Musk.

Speaker 1

但它现在亏得太厉害了。

But it's losing so much money.

Speaker 1

在一段时间内,它可能会拖累整个市场。

It could be a drain on the market for some time.

Speaker 1

Anthropic可能是最容易上市的,但OpenAI的融资可能会很惨,尤其是如果它排在最后。

Anthropic could be the easiest IPO, but OpenAI might be a miserable deal, especially if it comes last in the queue.

Speaker 1

它虽然是私营公司,但我没看到任何迹象表明它已经准备好迎接公众市场的考验。

It's private, but I'm not earning anything that tells me it's really ready for prime time.

Speaker 1

这些公司确实在私募市场融到了不少钱,但我担心,没有更大规模的资本注入,它们很难保持竞争力。

Companies been able to raise a lot of money in the private markets, but I fear not enough to stay competitive without a bigger slug of capital.

Speaker 1

那接下来会发生什么?

So what happens then?

Speaker 1

那些想参与这些投资的投资者,得靠卖掉别的资产来筹钱。

Well, the investors who wanna participate in these deals will raise money by selling something else.

Speaker 1

他们必须抛售一些表现好的股票,这就引出了一个显而易见的问题——英伟达。

Specifically, they're gonna have to sell some winners, which brings me to the elephant in the room, brings me to NVIDIA.

Speaker 1

这家公司刚在台湾办了一场非常成功的发布会,CEO黄仁勋状态正佳,大谈他们的Vera Rubin芯片有多厉害,市场接受度已经起来了。

This company just had a very successful copy text festival in Taiwan with CEO Jensen Huang at the top of his game, talking about how his Vera Rubin chips are so fantastic and they have brought acceptance already.

Speaker 1

整个故事讲得特别有说服力。

It was a very compelling story.

Speaker 1

说实话,我依然看好英伟达。

And you know, I remain a believer in Nvidia.

Speaker 1

但一看股价,那六大巨头都得卖。

But when I look at the stock, the big six need to sell.

Speaker 1

卖,卖,卖,卖。

Sell, sell, sell, sell.

Speaker 1

我猜大部分接盘的人,手上也持着英伟达的股票。

I'm betting most of the buyers will also own the stock of Nvidia.

Speaker 1

你不是特别看好数据中心这个故事吗?

You love the data center story, right?

Speaker 1

你不是特别看好英伟达吗?

You love Nvidia.

Speaker 1

这可是核心所在。

It's at the heart of it.

Speaker 1

詹森一直坚持他的理念:买了他产品的公司,都能靠它们赚钱。

Jensen's sticking by his mantra, companies that buy his wares will make money with them.

Speaker 1

当然,这些产品得放进满是服务器的巨大机房里,耗电量大,投入也大。

Of course, his wares have to be put in these gigantic warehouses full of servers and they need a lot of power and a lot of money.

Speaker 1

但整个过程可能要花上好几年。

But the whole thing could take years.

Speaker 1

这是一场大规模的建设。

It's a huge build out.

Speaker 1

所以,这些交易最自然的资金来源,不是雪佛龙、摩根大通、沃尔玛、莉莉,甚至可能也不是苹果。

So the most natural source of funds for these deals isn't a Chevron or a JPMorgan or a Walmart or a Lily or maybe even an Apple.

Speaker 1

卖家很可能会去找微软和亚马逊,指望能谈成回购股票的交易。

Sellers will most likely hit Microsoft and Amazon anticipating deals where they might be able to buy the stock back.

Speaker 1

而且我真希望他们别去筹这笔钱。

And once again, I hope they don't try to raise that money.

Speaker 1

我特别希望他们能直接说不会这么做,但这话真不好开口。

I really wish they could just come out and say they won't, but that's a tough thing to do.

Speaker 1

说到底,买家还是会靠卖英伟达的股票来筹钱。

Really though, the buyers will raise money by selling NVIDIA.

Speaker 1

我真的很担心,英伟达最后会变成一个资金来源,专门给那些想买新公司却缺钱的人输血。

I am deeply concerned that it'll become known as a market donor, a source of funds for those who wanna buy these new companies and don't have the capital to do so.

Speaker 1

我希望英伟达能有机会大手笔回购股票,那才真是好事。

I hope Nvidia gets a chance to buy back so much stock, that'll be great.

Speaker 1

但你知道吗?

But you know what?

Speaker 1

现在这事儿还真有点难办。

It's gonna be a little difficult right now.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得今天英伟达股价这么轻易就跌了8.36美元,跌幅超过62%,原因就在这儿。

That's why I believe NVIDIA stock was down so easily today, down $8.3.62 percent.

Speaker 1

卖起来实在太容易了。

It's just too easy to sell.

Speaker 1

这可能只是个开始,现在我们已经开始看到一些软件股转向下跌了。

Of course, this could be just the beginning, and we now are starting to see some software stocks roll over.

Speaker 1

就在今晚,不少半导体股和网络安全股也都跟着跌了。

We saw some some, a lot of semiconductors roll over this very evening and some cybersecurity.

Speaker 1

全都被打趴下了。

All got clubbed.

Speaker 1

明天还会看到更多半导体股票被抛售。

We're gonna see some other semi sold tomorrow.

Speaker 1

之前涨得可真够猛的。

Big gains there.

Speaker 1

拿下来太轻松了。

Easy to take.

Speaker 1

现在来看,英伟达就像是全世界最大的存钱罐。

Right now, NVIDIA is looking like the biggest piggy bank in the world.

Speaker 1

它当然不会被掏空,毕竟它的市值高达5.2万亿美元,都是别人的钱。

While it's not gonna be empty, and of course, it does have $5,200,000,000,000 of other people's money as its market cap.

Speaker 1

即便我觉得这个故事前景极好,也得做好有人提款的准备。

You gotta expect some withdrawals even as I think the story is excellent.

Speaker 1

我们持有英伟达,是为了搭上AI这趟列车。

We own NVIDIA for the travel trucks.

Speaker 1

我对人工智能作为第四次工业革命充满信心。

I have total faith in AI as the fourth industrial revolution.

Speaker 1

我对黄仁勋也完全信任。

I have total faith in Jen Swan.

Speaker 1

我会尽量坚持持有,哪怕中间有些波折,但我从不抱幻想。

I'll try to own it through this failing some deals, but I have no illusions.

Speaker 1

股东们接下来的日子不会好过。

It's gonna be a tough time for shareholders.

Speaker 1

说白了就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

Speaker 1

等熬过这段日子,看到那些卖视频设备的人赚得盆满钵满,咱们就彻底安心了。

Once we get through this period and we see that the buyers of video wearers are making fortunes, we're hope free.

Speaker 1

到那时候,这些公司根本没必要花这么多钱。

That will happen where these companies wouldn't be spending all that money in the first place.

Speaker 1

但在那之前,这简直就是战场。

Until then though, it's a battlefield.

Speaker 1

你最好全副武装,因为很可能真用得上。

And you better go don your armor because you just might need it.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下伊利诺伊州的亚当。

Let's go to Adam in Illinois.

Speaker 1

亚当。

Adam.

Speaker 3

哦,是的,吉姆。

Oh, yeah, Jim.

Speaker 3

喂。

Hey.

Speaker 3

谢谢你打来电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

Speaker 3

当然了,亚当。

Of course, Adam.

Speaker 3

你最近怎么样?

How are you?

Speaker 3

还不错。

Good.

Speaker 3

挺好。

Good.

Speaker 3

我正打算为孩子们建立一个小投资组合,想从小培养他们的投资意识,他们特别喜欢过山车。

I'm starting a small portfolio to start early encourage early investing with my kids who love roller coasters.

Speaker 3

你觉得在FUN公司完成并购、出售了表现不佳的资产后,现在入手它的股票怎么样?

What do you think of including a position in FUN post merger with the recent sale of underperforming properties?

Speaker 3

还是

Still

Speaker 1

关于杠杆和收益的一些疑问

questions of

Speaker 3

我们对杠杆和收益还有顾虑。

our around leverage and earnings.

Speaker 3

有趣的是

It's fun about

Speaker 1

这太冒险了。

the it's too dicey.

Speaker 1

我觉得这太冒险了,亚当。

I think it's too dicey, Adam.

Speaker 1

我不想这么做。

I don't wanna do that.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,我们有更多更好的房地产信托投资标的。

I mean, I think we have so many real estate investment trusts that are better.

Speaker 1

我觉得六旗这种地方,反而可能让孩子对股票产生反感。

I think six flags is the kind of thing that could make it so that your kids sour on stocks.

Speaker 1

我们不希望他们这样。

We don't want them to do that.

Speaker 1

我聊过的股票太多了,不管是哪种市场,或者在俱乐部里,怎么赚钱我都讲过。

I I have so many stocks I talk about and how to make money in any market or of course in the club.

Speaker 1

我不是在回避这个问题。

I'm not trying to dodge it.

Speaker 1

我只是喜欢的股票实在太多了。

There's just so many that I like.

Speaker 1

这个,我不喜欢。

That one, I do not.

Speaker 1

但我明白你是想找个他们可能感兴趣的标的。

But I appreciate that you're looking for something that they might want.

Speaker 1

我只是觉得这个风险太高了。

I just don't think that has that one has too much risk.

Speaker 1

那你觉得怎么样?

How about that?

Speaker 1

我们接一下加利福尼亚的梅里克。

Let's go to Merrick in California, please.

Speaker 1

梅里克。

Merrick.

Speaker 1

加利福尼亚,梅里克。

California, Merrick.

Speaker 4

你好。

Hey.

Speaker 4

吉姆,你最近怎么样?

How are doing, Jim?

Speaker 4

你最近还好吗?

How are you doing?

Speaker 1

我挺好的,梅里克。

I am doing well, Merrick.

Speaker 1

你呢?

How about you?

Speaker 4

我挺好的。

I'm doing good.

Speaker 4

我想听听你对Take Two Interactive的看法。

I wanted to hear your thoughts about Take Two Interactive.

Speaker 4

我最近开始关注,因为我是个玩家,特别喜欢《GTA 6》。

I I recently got into it because I'm a gamer, and I love GTA six.

Speaker 4

马上就要推出了。

It's coming out.

Speaker 4

这是新出的。

It's it's new.

Speaker 4

现在特别火。

It's hot.

Speaker 4

你怎么看?

What are your thoughts?

Speaker 1

我觉得这主意很棒。

I think it's a great idea.

Speaker 1

我觉得这真是个爆款。

I think got a real winner.

Speaker 1

我知道《GTA 6》很可能成为有史以来最成功的娱乐IP。

I understand that GTA six is is probably gonna be the biggest entertainment property of all time.

Speaker 1

如果你想建仓,今天它跌了六个百分点。

If you wanna start a position, it's down six today.

Speaker 1

别一下子全买进去。

I wouldn't buy it all at once.

Speaker 1

这股票波动挺大,但我跟你一样看好Take Two Interactive。

It's an erratic trader, but I share your enthusiasm for Take Two Interactive.

Speaker 1

我们现在连线纽约的伊丽莎白。

Let's go to Elizabeth in New York, please.

Speaker 1

伊丽莎白。

Elizabeth.

Speaker 5

你好。

Hey.

Speaker 1

Elizabeth。

Elizabeth.

Speaker 5

吉姆,你最近怎么样?

How are you, Jim?

Speaker 5

我想问一下

My question is

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

对。

Yep.

Speaker 5

DoorDash 的订单量创了新高,但利润还是跟不上,股价还带着溢价。

Oh, DoorDash has record order volume, but profitability is still lagging and the stock trades at a premium multiple.

Speaker 5

如果油价持续高位,消费者支出又放缓,DoorDash 还配得上成长股的估值吗?还是说这暴露了他们商业模式的短板?

If gas prices stay elevated and consumer kind of spending slows, does DoorDash still deserve a growth stock valuation, or does that kind of expose a weakness in the business model?

Speaker 1

我觉得,托尼,这个问题提得非常好。

I think, Tony this this a great question.

Speaker 1

我经常在想这个问题,因为有些公司是在市场波动期上市的,估值有时候确实不稳定。

I debate it all the time because there's a couple of stocks that came public during a period, and there's kind of wavering sometimes.

Speaker 1

我认为徐达伦把这家公司打造成行业第一,做得非常出色。

I think Tony Hsu has done a remarkable job putting together the number one company in its field.

Speaker 1

你说得完全对。

I think that you're absolutely right.

Speaker 1

它的股价目前是盈利的32倍,属于高估值。

It sells at a premium mobile 32 times earnings.

Speaker 1

也许这个价格确实偏高了。

Maybe that's too expensive.

Speaker 1

如果股价能跌到100到120美元之间,可能就更值得入手了。

Maybe the stock would be better bought if it got down to 100 to $1.20.

Speaker 1

不过话说回来,我对这家公司和管理团队非常看好。

But that said, I like the company and management very much.

Speaker 1

好了,各位。

Alright, guys.

Speaker 1

我依然看好英伟达。

I still believe in NVIDIA.

Speaker 1

我不是想贬低它。

I didn't mean to talk it down.

Speaker 1

我只是想说说实际情况。

I'm just trying to tell it as it is.

Speaker 1

我会继续持有它,还有其他一些在网络安全领域遭受重创的半导体公司,但我知道接下来会很难熬。

I'll try to keep owning it and the other some of the other semis which are getting hit very hard in cybersecurity, but I know it's gonna be a tough time.

Speaker 1

作为股东,有时候就得经历一段艰难时期。

Sometimes you have to go through tough times as shareholders.

Speaker 1

没人会跟你说这一点。

People don't tell you that.

Speaker 1

天哪。

Oh, man.

Speaker 1

不过我得说声抱歉。

But I'm sorry.

Speaker 1

艾利·利利在上个月六月大涨之后,还有可能继续涨吗?

Is it possible to still have a bookcase for Eli Lilly after June's run last month?

Speaker 1

我觉得有这个可能。

I think so.

Speaker 1

我来跟你们说说为什么我觉得它还能继续上涨。

I'm sharing why I think it can keep going higher.

Speaker 1

还有好几只航空航天领域的新股,你也值得关注。

Then there's more than one aerospace related IPO you that you should be watching.

Speaker 1

今天我重点分析的是新上市的公司,叫Applied Aerospace Defense。

That was my deep dive on today's debut time, which is a company called Applied Aerospace Defense.

Speaker 1

还有物流地产信托ProLogis,我早就看好它,最近表现特别出色。

And logistics REIT, ProLogis, which I've liked for so long, has been outperforming lately.

Speaker 1

它现在正转向建设一些数据中心。

It's pivoting to doing some data center build out.

Speaker 1

我打算跟这家公司的新首席执行官聊聊,听听他们的战略规划。

I'm gonna sit down with the company's new CEO to hear more about the strategy.

Speaker 1

我觉得你会喜欢的。

I think you'll like it.

Speaker 1

今天你每天都得这么做。

You'll do it daily today.

Speaker 1

继续关注克拉默。

Stay with Cramer.

Speaker 0

别错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一分钟。

Don't miss a second of Mad Money.

Speaker 0

在X上关注吉姆·克拉默。

Follow at Jim Cramer on x.

Speaker 0

有什么问题吗?

Have a question?

Speaker 0

给克拉默发推文吧。

Tweet Cramer.

Speaker 0

标签 #madmentions

Hashtag mad mentions.

Speaker 0

给 madmoney@CNBC.com 发邮件,或者拨打 180743 联系我们。

Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.

Speaker 0

错过什么了?

Missed something?

Speaker 0

去 madmoney.cnbc.com 查看。

Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道将携手Fanatics Fest,带来关于体育和娱乐未来走向的前瞻理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC sport and boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

Speaker 1

当油价飙升、市场像今天这样全面下跌时,你就会想起我昨晚提到的那些能抵御经济波动的投资标的。

When the price of oil spikes and most of the market rolls over like it did today, you're gonna wish you owned something that's insulated from the broader economy like I talked about last night.

Speaker 1

看看Cramer推荐的礼来公司,今天大盘这么差,它还是涨了超过1%。

Look at Cramer fave Eli Lilly, up over 1% on an otherwise ugly day.

Speaker 1

这只股票从四月下旬的低点悄然上涨了27%,再次跻身万亿美元市值俱乐部。

This is a stock that has quietly rallied 27 from its late April lows and is once again part of the trillionaire club.

Speaker 1

说实话,我早就看好这只股票了。

Now regularly, you know I've been a fan of this one for ages.

Speaker 1

过去五年里,它在孩子的信托账户里表现一直很差。

It's been a poor holding for my child trust for nearly five years.

Speaker 1

自从我们第一次买入以来,股价已经涨了超过360%。

It's up more than 360% since our first purchase.

Speaker 1

我们对这只股票很有耐心。

We have patience with this one.

Speaker 1

最棒的是,在这段上涨过程中,礼来一直有个非常清晰的故事。

Best of all, for most of this run, Lilly's had a gloriously simple story.

Speaker 1

和诺和诺德一起,他们开创了一种全新的革命性糖尿病和减重药物,你肯定听说过,就是GLP-1类药物。

Alongside Novo Nordisk, they invented a new class of revolutionary diabetes and weight loss drugs, you've heard of them, the GLP-1s.

Speaker 1

关键区别在于,礼来的执行能力一直强得多。

The big difference is that Lilly's always had much better execution.

Speaker 1

他们首款口服药在四月一日获批,相比之前的注射剂,这可是个重大升级。

Their first pill version was approved back on April 1, which should be a big upgrade from the previous injections.

Speaker 1

幕后,路易公司投入数十亿美元扩大GLP-1的产能,只为满足市场对这种神药的无限需求。

Now behind the scenes, Louie was investing billions to ramp up GLP-one production so that it could ultimately meet the insatiable demand for this wonder drug.

Speaker 1

同时,路易的管线也很强大,涵盖癌症、心脏病和自身免疫疾病等多种重磅疗法。

At the same time, Louie's got a terrific portfolio, including big treatments for cancer, heart disease, and autoimmune conditions.

Speaker 1

这些药物虽然没GLP-1那么抢眼,却为公司赚了大把钱。

These never get as much attention as GLP test one drugs, but they've made the company a ton of money.

Speaker 1

默克的营收从2020年的245亿美元飙升至去年的652亿美元,每股收益也从7.93美元涨到了24.21美元。

Mui's revenue shot up from 24,500,000,000 in 2020 to 65,200,000,000 last year, while its earnings have grown from $7.93 per share in 2020 to $24.21 per share last year.

Speaker 1

这相当于年均25%的复合增长率,简直像极了几十年前大型药企的黄金时代。

That's a compound annual growth rate of 25, like something from the big pharma heyday decades ago.

Speaker 1

首席执行官大卫·里克斯在资本配置上做得非常出色。

CEO David Ricks is a terrific steward of his shareholders' capital.

Speaker 1

但归根结底,投资逻辑很简单:礼来拥有最出色的GLP-1产品线。

Still, at the end of the day, the thesis here boiled down to the simple fact that Lilly's got the best GLP-one franchise.

Speaker 1

这意味着,一旦投资者对这个主题失去兴趣,股价就会受挫——去年年底就是这种情况,当时市场竞争加剧,更糟的是,诺和诺德抢先推出了自己的GLP-1口服药。

That means the stock gets hit whenever investors tire of that theme, as they did, by the way, late last year when the space started getting competitive and worse, Novo Nordisk beat Lilly to market with its own GLP dash one pill.

Speaker 1

所以今年年初的头几个月,股价一直难以提振。

That's why the stock had trouble finding traction the first few months of the year.

Speaker 1

但过去两周,礼来接连发布了几个重磅利好消息。

In the last two weeks though, we've gotten some major bullish catalysts from Eli Lilly.

Speaker 1

今晚我想带你们一一梳理这些进展,让你明白我为什么看好它。

I wanna walk them walk you through them tonight so you know how I feel about this.

Speaker 1

首先,5月21日,我们公布了三期临床试验的新数据。

First on May 21, we reported new data from a phase three trial.

Speaker 1

这药还没获批,但三期试验结果已经出来了,是关于他们新研发的减重药Retatrutide。

It means it hasn't been approved, phase three, right there, on their new weight loss drug called retreutide.

Speaker 1

这是一款GLP-1药物,但还结合了另外两种激素激动剂,效果有点像同时激活了GLP-1、GIP和胰高血糖素受体。

This is a GLP-one, but it's combined with two other hormone agonists that makes it kind of like it's GOP three, so to speak.

Speaker 1

试验数据显示,Retatrutide的减重效果远超目前市面上所有的GLP-1药物。

The data from this trial showed retautriide is much more effective for weight loss than the GOP-1s that we currently have.

Speaker 1

服用最高剂量的参与者在80周内平均减重70磅。

Participants who took the highest dose lost an average of 70 pounds in eighty weeks.

Speaker 1

说白了,它的减重效果跟减重手术差不多。

Basically, it's as effective as a bariatric surgery.

Speaker 1

即使是最低剂量,人们在同样时间内也减了47磅。

Even with the smallest dose, people lost 47 pounds over the same period.

Speaker 1

副作用比Zepbound稍重一些,但药效也强得多。

The side effects are a little more serious than Zepbound, but the drug's a lot more effective too.

Speaker 1

但这个故事里还有一个没明说的关键点,你得特别留心。

But an unspoken part of the story, and this is you gotta be really careful.

Speaker 1

你的基础数据并不支持这个结论。

Your base is not there's not gonna prove for this.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

问题出在肌肉流失上。

It's about muscle atrophy.

Speaker 1

共和党那些药最大的问题在于,它们会让你同时流失肌肉和脂肪。

The big problem with GOP dash ones is that they make you lose both muscle and fat.

Speaker 1

很多人猜测Retatrutide能帮你更多减脂肪、更少掉肌肉,尽管它本身并没有做出这样的宣称。

There's been a lot of speculation that retreutide will help you lose more fat and less muscle, even as the way itself is not making that claim.

Speaker 1

正因如此,才有这么多人在灰色市场购买它。

But that's why so many people are taking it in the gray market.

Speaker 1

他们弄到了未经FDA批准的配制版本,但我并不建议这么做。

They've gotten non FDA approved compounded versions of the drug, which I would not recommend.

Speaker 1

这说明,即使这药还没上市,市场需求已经大到惊人了。

But it's telling you that there's so much demand for something that isn't even out yet.

Speaker 1

它可能会成为有史以来最畅销的药物。

It could be the biggest drug of all time.

Speaker 1

你没听错,是有史以来最畅销的药物。

You heard me, biggest drug of all time.

Speaker 1

关键是,到目前为止,还没有其他公司研发出能和礼来这款药相提并论的减肥药。

The key is that, at least so far, no one else has a weight loss drug in the pipeline that's in the same league as what Lilly's working on.

Speaker 1

5月25日,礼来公司公布了另一项积极进展,他们正在测试一种新的基因疗法,用于治疗高胆固醇,初步一期试验结果不错。

Second positive development on May 25, Lilly announced some positive phase one, that's very early trial results from new gene therapy that they're testing on high cholesterol.

Speaker 1

别管这些数据还太早了。

Forget this, very early stage data.

Speaker 1

这种药在降低坏胆固醇——也就是LDL胆固醇方面,表现出了不错的潜力。

The drug showed promising results for lowering LDL cholesterol, which is the bad kind of cholesterol.

Speaker 1

其实现在根本没什么‘好’胆固醇了。

Oh, actually, there isn't any good cholesterol anymore.

Speaker 1

我们刚发现的。

We discovered that.

Speaker 1

只需一次静脉注射,目前叫Verve-102的药物,让参与者体内的LDL胆固醇最高下降了62%,效果持久,安全性也很好。

Specifically with a single single single intravenous infusion of the drug, currently called Verve-one hundred two, participants saw an up to 62% decrease in LDL cholesterol with durable effects and a clean safety trial.

Speaker 1

我觉得这简直太惊人了。

I'm calling that incredible.

Speaker 1

这些结果让‘一次性治愈高胆固醇’这个目标,看起来真实可行了。

Basically these results make the goal of a one time treatment for high cholesterol look more realistic.

Speaker 1

礼来计划在今年年底前启动二期临床试验。

Lilly plans to begin enrolling a phase two trial by the end of the year.

Speaker 1

虽然这种药离上市还早得很,但结果已经非常令人鼓舞了。

While we're still a long way from a drug like this make it to market, the results were very encouraging.

Speaker 1

在现阶段,它似乎比安进的Repatha稍微更有效一些。

At this early stage, it seems slightly more effective than Amgen's Repatha.

Speaker 1

不过,和Repatha一样,礼来的药只需注射一次。

Although, like Repatha, you only need to take Lilly's drug once.

Speaker 1

我每两周就得打一针那个东西。

I take that thing every other week.

Speaker 1

我不喜欢打,但确实管用。

I don't like it, but it's working.

Speaker 1

第三,在公布那项有希望的基因疗法数据的第二天,礼来一口气收购了三家疫苗公司。

Third, the very next day after that promising gene therapy data, Lilly announced that it was acquiring three vaccine makers in one fell swoop.

Speaker 1

这些交易都涉及 undisclosed 的前期现金付款。

The deals all included undisclosed upfront cash payment.

Speaker 1

有钱了,才能做这种大手笔的收购。

When you got a lot of money, you can do these kinds of deals.

Speaker 1

三笔交易加起来,总价值最高可达38.3亿美元。

And up to 3,830,000,000 in value cumulatively across the three transactions.

Speaker 1

前提是每家公司都能达成所有里程碑目标。

Assuming each company hits all the milestones.

Speaker 1

第一笔是收购了一家叫Curvell的公司,他们在研发一款预防成人带状疱疹的疫苗。

First deal was for a company called Curvell, which is working on a vaccine for the prevention of shingles in adults.

Speaker 1

这个市场可不小。

That's a very big market.

Speaker 1

第二笔是收购了Lematec Biologics,这家公司正在开发对抗耐药细菌的疫苗。

The second one is for a company called Lematec Biologics, which is developing vaccines against bacterial pathogens that have built up resistance to traditional antibiotics.

Speaker 1

这正是医疗系统迫切需要的东西。

Again, something that the hospital system is desperate for.

Speaker 1

第三笔是收购了一家名字挺普通的疫苗公司,他们在研发一种不使用病毒遗传物质、却能模拟病毒的疫苗技术。

The third was for the very boringly named vaccine company, which is developing technology for vaccines that mimic viruses without actually including any genetic material from those viruses.

Speaker 1

这意味着疫苗的副作用可能会更少。

That could mean vaccines with fewer side effects.

Speaker 1

简而言之,礼来正在大力进军疫苗领域,而目前它在这个领域并没有太大的布局。

In short, Lilly's making a big initial push into vaccines, an area where it doesn't have a major presence at the moment.

Speaker 1

由于RFK Jr.掌管卫生与公共服务部,现在疫苗并不是一个热门方向。

With RFK junior running the department of health and human services, vaccines are not a particularly hot area right now.

Speaker 1

看来礼来是在做一项长期的投资布局。

Seems that Lilly seems to be making a sale, a longer term bet.

Speaker 1

用GLP-1产品的一部分收益,打造一个全新的产品线。

Using a small fraction of its GLP-one proceeds to create an entire new franchise.

Speaker 1

我觉得这是个明智的决定。

I think it's a smart move.

Speaker 1

最后,还有个好消息。

Finally, here's some more good news.

Speaker 1

5月28日,我们得知礼来与美国最大的药品福利管理公司CVS Caremark达成协议,将Zepbound和Foundayo纳入医保覆盖范围。

On May 28, we learned that Lilly reached a deal with CVS Caremark, the largest pharmacy benefit manager in The US to cover both Zepbound and Foundayo.

Speaker 1

这两种都是重要的减重药物。

They're two big weight loss drugs.

Speaker 1

有了这份Caremark协议,全美三大药房福利管理公司现在都覆盖了礼来完整的肥胖症药物组合,大幅增加了通过现有医保能获得这些药物的美国人数量。

With this Caremark deal, all three of the nation's largest PBMs will cover Lilly's full obesity medicine portfolio, significantly expanding the number of Americans who can access these drugs through their existing insurance.

Speaker 1

对于符合条件的患者,这两种药每月只需支付25美元就能获得。

So for eligible patients, commercial coverage, both medicines are now available for as little as $25 per month.

Speaker 1

以前这些药一个月要一千美元,大家都说会把医保体系拖垮。

This stuff used to cost a thousand dollars per month and people are saying it's gonna bankrupt the system.

Speaker 1

不对。

Uh-uh.

Speaker 1

另外,从7月1日起,联邦医疗保险D部分的受益人通过Medicare GOP一桥计划,每月也可能只需支付50美元就能获得肥胖症药物。

Separately, Medicare Part D beneficiaries may also be eligible to pay $50 per month for their obesity medicines starting July 1 through Medicare GOP dash one bridge program.

Speaker 1

简单说,现在更多人负担得起这些药了。

Basically, many more people can now afford these things.

Speaker 1

总结一下。

Here's the bottom line.

Speaker 1

虽然礼来股价去年底和今年初一度大跌,但最近几周强势反弹,这背后是实实在在的利好驱动,不只是市场情绪在推动。

While Lilly stock had swoon late last year and early this year, it's made a big comeback in recent weeks driven by real positive cat catalyst, not just sentiment.

Speaker 1

所以我才坚定持有礼来股票,长期看好,尤其是在科技股波动加剧的时候。

That's why I'm sticking with the other Lilly for the long haul, especially during times when techs are tither.

Speaker 1

广告后,《疯狂金钱》继续为您带来精彩内容。

Mad Money's back after the break.

Speaker 0

接下来,本周还有不止一家与航天相关的IPO值得关注。

Coming up, there's more than one space related IPO you should have your eyes on this week.

Speaker 0

克雷默接下来要分析的是AADX公司。

Cramer's breaking down AADX next.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道将携手Fanatics Fest,共同呈现‘赛前计划’,探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

想获取邀请,请访问 cnbcevents.com/gameplan。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

Speaker 1

在我们等待、观望,为SpaceX的IPO激动不已的时候,我还有一个想法。

While we wait, observe, get all excited about the big SpaceX IPO, I got another idea.

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Speaker 1

我还想跟你聊聊几笔最近的交易,我觉得你值得了解一下。

We have a bunch of other recent deals that I think you should know about.

Speaker 1

可别让这些机会从眼皮底下溜走了。

I don't wanna fall through the cracks.

Speaker 1

比如Applied Aerospace和Defense这家公司。

Take Applied Aerospace and Defense.

Speaker 1

这家公司今天刚上市,动静不大,没什么人注意。

So this one came public today, not too much fanfare.

Speaker 1

虽然我手上已经有不少市场里表现最强劲的板块,但Applied Aerospace是帮航天和国防领域的客户设计和制造产品的。

Even though I have exposure to some of the strongest sectors in this market, Applied Aerospace helps their customers in the space and defense industries to design and manufacture the products.

Speaker 1

你可以把它看作是一家外包制造商,就像我们以前特别看好的Flex、Jabil、Celestica那样,只不过它做的不是电子产品,而是军工业务。

I want you to think of it as an outsourced manufacturer, like some of the real hot ones we've liked along Flex, J Bill, Celestica, except rather than electronics, it's focused on the military industrial complex.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,那三家公司的股票最近都涨得挺猛,你也知道我一向很看好这个行业。

By the way, all three of those talks have been on fire lately, and you know I'm big fans of that industry.

Speaker 1

它让我对Applied Aerospace产生了兴趣,这家公司专门制造极端环境下使用的高可靠性子系统,既服务于航天领域,也服务于军事用途。

They've got me interested in Applied Aerospace, in which, this thing builds complex mission critical subsystems for extreme operating environments, both for space and military applications.

Speaker 1

太空领域。

Space.

Speaker 1

Applied Aerospace 的几家前身公司已经存在了几十年,它们利用丰富的经验,帮助客户快速原型设计新硬件,并迅速投入生产。

Some of Applied Aerospace's predecessor companies have been around for decades and they use their expertise to help clients rapidly prototype new hardware, quickly get it to production.

Speaker 1

这可不是什么突然冒出来的新公司。

Now this is not some new player that came out of nowhere.

Speaker 1

它们与主要的航空航天防务承包商保持着长期合作关系。

They have long term relationships with the major aerospace defense contractors.

Speaker 1

和许多最近上市的公司一样,Applied Aerospace 实际上是一家由私募股权支持、通过整合多个公司而上市的企业。

Now, like many recent IPOs, Applied Aerospace is basically a private equity backed roll up coming public.

Speaker 1

一家叫 Greenbrier Equity Group 的公司自 2021 年起,陆续收购了九家相关企业,第一家是 PCX。

A firm called Greenbrier Equity Group made a series of nine acquisitions in this space starting with PCX back in 2021.

Speaker 1

一年后,他们收购了原来的 Applied Aerospace Structures 公司。

A year later, they bought the old applied aerospace structures.

Speaker 1

之后又收购了两家航空航天企业,最后把这些公司全部整合进原名为 PCX 的业务中。

Then they made two more aerospace acquisitions before combining it all with the business formerly known as PCX.

Speaker 1

在这个过程中,他们打造了一个相当有分量的公司。

In the process, they've created what I think is pretty heavy hitter.

Speaker 1

当然,即使上市后,Greenbrier 仍然持有这家公司约81%的股份,一旦他们开始套现,这就会成为问题。

Of course, even after the IPO, Greenbrier still owns roughly 81% of the business, which will be a problem the moment they start to ring the register.

Speaker 1

希望股价能高得多。

Hopefully, the stock will be much higher.

Speaker 1

但短期内不太可能实现。

That's not gonna happen anytime soon.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

我们来聊聊财务数据吧。

Let's talk about the numbers.

Speaker 1

数据有点乱。

It's a little bit noisy.

Speaker 1

因为 Applied Aerospace 一直没停止过收购。

Because Applied Aerospace never stopped making acquisitions.

Speaker 1

就在今年三月,他们收购了一家叫CBI的公司。

Just this March, they purchased a company called CBI.

Speaker 1

他们给了我实际数据和模拟数据,展示了如果2025年初完成对CBI的收购,公司会是什么样子。

They gave me both the real numbers and the pro form a numbers that show what the business would look like if they closed on the CBI deal at the beginning of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1

我们得用模拟数据,因为它更能反映公司当前的真实状况。

We have to use the pro form a numbers because they're more representative of the current state of the business.

Speaker 1

但你要记住,这里的大部分增长都不是内生的。

But I want you to keep in mind that a lot of the growth here is inorganic.

Speaker 1

比如去年,按模拟数据算,不包括CBI的贡献,Applied Aerospace的营收增长了51%。

Last year, for example, Applied Aerospace had 51% revenue growth going by the pro form a numbers without including the CBI numbers.

Speaker 1

如果不算收购,实际增长只有25%。

That would have been just 25% growth.

Speaker 1

今年第一季度,模拟营收比2025年同期增长了37%。

In the first quarter of this year, pro form a revenue was up 37% from the actual first quarter of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1

如果没有这次收购,营收同比也增长了21%,依然很不错。

Without the acquisition, revenue would have been up 21% year over year, still pretty good.

Speaker 1

至于盈利能力,我觉得问题出在这儿,情况挺复杂的。

As for profitability, again, this is what hurt it, I think, it's complicated.

Speaker 1

首先,用最严格的公认会计准则来看,应用航天公司目前是亏钱的。

First, using the most stringent GAAP numbers, Applied Aerospace is losing money.

Speaker 1

今年第一季度,公司调整后的净亏损达到七千八百八十万美元,远高于2025年第一季度的七百三十万美元。

In the first quarter of this year, the company had a pro form a net loss of 78,800,000, which was much larger than the $7,300,000 loss in the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1

我不太喜欢这个趋势。

I don't like that.

Speaker 1

不过,如果不算上CBI并购案在调整后数据里的影响,2025年全年的亏损和今年第一季度的亏损都会小得多,这说明收购推动了增长,但也拖累了盈利。

The losses for 2025 and for the first quarter would have been much smaller though if not for the CBI deal that's reflected in the pro form a numbers, indicating the acquisition bolstered growth but hurt profitability.

Speaker 1

但话说回来,如果你愿意看更宽松的调整后利润指标——也就是扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销后的EBITDA,数据就好看多了。

Now all that said, if you're willing to look at the more forgiving adjusted earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, or EBITDA numbers, now they look much better.

Speaker 1

我觉得,对于这种大量固定资产折旧的合同制造商来说,EBITDA才是更合适的评估方式。

I'd argue that EBITDA is the right way to evaluate what's essentially a contract manufacturer with lots of depreciation.

Speaker 1

去年,就算不计入CBI的业绩,应用航天公司的调整后EBITDA也增长了69%。

Applied Aerospace saw its pro form a EBITDA jump 69% last year without the CBI numbers.

Speaker 1

本来能增长百分之四十。

Would have been up 40%.

Speaker 1

今年第一季度,调整后的数据显示EBITDA增长了百分之十三。

In the first quarter of this year, the pro form a numbers show 13% EBITDA growth.

Speaker 1

如果没有CBI这笔交易,增长率只有百分之五。

Without the CBI deal, it would have been five percent growth.

Speaker 1

无论用哪种数据来看,2024年和2025年的EBITDA利润率都落在了百分之二十出头的水平。

The numbers work out to EBITDA margins in the low twenties in 2024 and 2025, no matter which numbers you use for 2025.

Speaker 1

这已经很不错了。

And that's pretty good.

Speaker 1

不过话说回来,今年第一季度公司的EBITDA利润率降到了百分之十几的高位。

That said, the company's EBITDA margin fell to the high teens in the first quarter.

Speaker 1

我倒不至于为此睡不着觉,但你看出这里面有多乱了吗?

I'm not gonna lose sleep over that, but do you see all the confusion that went into this one?

Speaker 1

真希望他们别搞得这么复杂。

I wish they didn't have it so complex.

Speaker 1

财务方面还有几件事需要提一下。

There are a couple other things to flag on the financial front.

Speaker 1

首先,Applied Aerospace披露,截至三月底,其合同积压总额达到10.6亿美元。

First, Applied Aerospace disclosed it had a 1,060,000,000 contract backlog as of end of March.

Speaker 1

这挺让人欣慰的,因为这个数字是去年收入的1.75倍。

That's encouraging because it's 1.75 times last year's revenue.

Speaker 1

但不太乐观的是,Applied Aerospace的现金流情况。

Less encouraging is Applied Aerospace's cash flow.

Speaker 1

公司在2025年和今年第一季度的经营活动现金流都是负的。

Company had negative cash flow from operations 2025 and again in the first quarter of this year.

Speaker 1

接下来我们聊聊资产负债表,这类私募股权支持的IPO公司,这通常是问题所在。

Now we're gonna talk balance sheet, which is often an issue for these private equity backed IPOs.

Speaker 1

Applied Aerospace表示,他们几乎把所有IPO募集的资金都用来偿还债务了。

Applied Aerospace says it's using its essentially all of its IPO proceeds to pay down debt.

Speaker 1

这样一来,总负债应该能从12.5亿美元降到大约6.61亿美元。

That should shrink their total liabilities from 1,250,000,000 down to more like 661,000,000.

Speaker 1

只看总债务的话,公司现在的杠杆比率应该是2.3,毕竟已经上市并且还清了一大笔债务。

Just looking at the total debt, the company should have a leverage ratio of 2.3 now that that it's come public and paid off a big chunk of debt.

Speaker 1

我觉得这个水平挺合理的。

That that strikes me as fine.

Speaker 1

最后,咱们聊聊估值。

Finally, let's talk about valuation.

Speaker 1

这次IPO的定价相当保守,定在20美元,刚好高于发行价区间的中间值。

The IPO had a rather tame pricing at this $20, which was just above the midpoint of the deal's marketed price range.

Speaker 1

今天股价也没什么大涨。

We also didn't see much of a pop today.

Speaker 1

事实上,这只股票开盘涨幅不到4%,也就是20.75美元的发行价。

In fact, after the stock opened up less than 4% from its offer price, $20.75.

Speaker 1

之后股价就跌了,跌破了发行价,最终收在19.01美元。

It fell from there, breaking below its offer price and settling at $19.01.

Speaker 1

我知道你们中有些人可能会觉得这让人泄气,但我其实挺喜欢这种破发交易的,只要我没参与就行。

Now, which some of you may find discouraging me, I actually like deals that break the print as long as I am not in them.

Speaker 1

这反而创造了不错的投资机会,让我可以静静观察,尤其是现在市值才32.5亿美元。

Tends to create bargains that I could sit back and look at, especially now the market cap's only 3,250,000,000.

Speaker 1

如果我们加上公司上市后的净债务,企业的总价值就是35.7亿美元。

If we add back the company's post IPO net debt total, we get an enterprise value of 3,570,000,000.

Speaker 1

如果我们用一个很粗略的2026年EBITDA预测值1.148亿美元——这大约是他们第一季度利润的四倍——那企业的估值倍数就是31倍。

And if we use a very crude 2026 EBITDA estimate of 114,800,000, that's four times what they made in the first quarter, then we get an enterprise multiple of 31.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,如果你用包含CBI收购的2025年调整后数据,估值倍数会降到25倍,这个数字可能更贴近实际情况。

By the way, if you use the 2025 pro form a numbers that include the CBI acquisition, you get an enterprise model of 25, that which might be more accurate here.

Speaker 1

但我还是愿意用一个更低的EBITDA估算,因为我倾向于保守一点。

But I'm okay using a lower EBITDA estimate because I wanna be conservative.

Speaker 1

我把这些数字都告诉你,是希望你心里有数。

I'm giving you all these numbers.

Speaker 1

我只是不希望你盲目地冲进去投资。

I just don't want you to blindly move into this thing.

Speaker 1

那么,31倍的企业估值,算不算合理的价格?

So is an enterprise model of 31 a good price?

Speaker 1

说实话,还是有点高。

Honestly, still a bit high.

Speaker 1

这大概就是股价跌破发行价的原因。

It's probably why the stock broke the print.

Speaker 1

你看看我提到的那三家合同制造商——Flex、Jabil 和 Cisco,过去四个月它们的股价都涨得飞快,它们的企业估值倍数在16到31之间。

If you look at this three contract manufacturers that I mentioned, the great ones Flex, Jabil, and Cisco, all of which have been rallying like crazy for the past four months, they support enterprise multiples of anywhere from 16 to 31.

Speaker 1

这么一比,这只股票就显得太贵了。

That makes this stock too expensive.

Speaker 1

不过,我也能想象一种情况:我粗略估算的EBITDA可能远远偏低,而Applied Aerospace所处的市场领域都很对路,回头一看,其实便宜不少。

That said, I can easily see a scenario where my back of the envelope EBITDA estimates turn out to be too low, possibly way too low, and applied aerospace, which is in all the right end markets, looks a whole lot cheaper in retrospect.

Speaker 1

我是这么看的。

Here's how I see it.

Speaker 1

总的来说,这个故事我很看好,只要价格合适,我愿意持有这只股票。

In general, this is a story I like and a stock I want to own at some price.

Speaker 1

理想情况下,股价能再跌个几块钱,落到十五六美元左右,那样按我们估算的EBITDA,企业估值倍数就落在二十五上下了。

Ideally, you get a couple of bucks lower, say somewhere in the mid teens where it would have a mid twenties enterprise multiple based on our rough EBITDA estimate.

Speaker 1

这样挺好。

That's good.

Speaker 1

考虑到今天股价反应平平,也不是没可能。

Based on the stocks lukewarm reception today, not impossible.

Speaker 1

不过我觉得不太可能跌到那么低。

Though I don't think you can count it getting down that low.

Speaker 1

但如果你真的很看好这个故事,那你知道吗?

But if you really like the story, then you know what?

Speaker 1

我支持你现在就入手。

You've got my blessing to buy it here.

Speaker 1

这开局不算火热。

This wasn't a super hot start.

Speaker 1

你不是在追高。

You're not chasing anything.

Speaker 1

估值不算离谱,只是稍微高了一点。

Valuation isn't crazy, just a little elevated.

Speaker 1

就像我刚说的,实际上,这只股票的真实价值比表面看起来要低不少。

And like I just told you, in reality, the stock's probably quite a bit cheaper than it looks.

Speaker 1

说白了就是这样。

Here's the bottom line.

Speaker 1

我其实挺看好这家航空航天防务公司。

I actually like the supplied aerospace defense.

Speaker 1

干嘛非得花那么多时间去抠那些数字呢?

Why spend so much time going up the numbers?

Speaker 1

如果你觉得现在这个价格能接受,那你说咋办?

If you can get the stock at a price you feel comfortable with, you know what?

Speaker 1

我觉得就该下手。

I say go for it.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下佛罗里达的约翰。

Let's go to John in Florida.

Speaker 1

约翰。

John.

Speaker 6

克莱默教授,这是第二次来电了。

Professor Cramer, second time caller.

Speaker 6

非常喜欢您的节目,感谢您为我们投资者所做的一切。

Love your show, and thank you for all you do for us investors.

Speaker 6

我准备下单成为俱乐部会员了。

And I'll be pulling the trigger on becoming a club member.

Speaker 1

今天我要说的是,我们在俱乐部里又做了一些新操作。

My call today As we work inside, we did some more stuff on the club today.

Speaker 1

我觉得我们最近每一步都做得挺对的。

I just feel like we're doing so many things right.

Speaker 1

我们刚建了一个新仓位,小心翼翼地逢低买入。

Got a new position we're putting on, doing it gingerly gingerly buying on the way down.

Speaker 1

你真得参与进来。

You gotta get involved.

Speaker 1

我觉得这主意特别好。

I think it's a great idea.

Speaker 1

有什么我可以帮您的吗?

How can I help?

Speaker 6

我今天打电话是想聊聊Axon Enterprises这家公司。

My call today regarding is regarding Axon Enterprises.

Speaker 6

我几年前在大约300美元的时候买入了Axon的股票,到今年八月已经涨到了880美元。

I took a position on Axon a couple of years ago at around $300 and wrote it all the way up to $8.80 this past August.

Speaker 6

但吉米,过去九个月真是挺煎熬的。

But, Jimmy, the last nine months has been painful.

Speaker 6

股价跌了45%。

Stock's down 45%.

Speaker 6

我手里还留着几百股。

I still own a few 100 shares.

Speaker 6

您怎么看?

What do you think?

Speaker 6

您觉得是买还是卖?

Buy, sell,

Speaker 7

还是继续持有?

or hold?

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

我希望你继续持有。

I want you to hold it.

Speaker 1

我希望你继续持有。

I want you to hold it.

Speaker 1

你听我说。

You know, look.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

我让你别卖,是因为我知道他们的产品其实表现不错,只是股价对应的市盈率太高了。

Obviously, I don't tell you to sell it is because I know that the product is, is do, you know, their products are doing well, but the problem is it sells at a very high price to earnings multiple.

Speaker 1

现在大家都不太理解这个‘M’。

Now people don't understand the M.

Speaker 1

所以我才写了《如何在市场中赚钱》这本书。

This is why I wrote how to make money in a market.

Speaker 1

M值才是关键,但现在M值太高了,大家正因为这个在抛售。

The M is the secret sauce and the M's too high and people are selling that because of it.

Speaker 1

我们来连线马萨诸塞州的比尔,比尔。

Hey, let's go to bill in Massachusetts, bill.

Speaker 6

吉米,我想买一些波音股票,但不能突破我的每股成本上限。

Jimmy, I'd like to pick up some Boeing and I don't wanna violate my cost per share.

Speaker 1

我不希望你这么做。

I don't want you to do it.

Speaker 1

我不希望你这么做。

I don't want you to do it.

Speaker 1

波音现在就像只病猫,它现在跟战争挂钩在交易。

Boeing's Boeing is a cat right now, Boeing trades with the war.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

我的意思是,本来不该这样,但确实如此,因为大家觉得旅行行业会受打击。

I mean, it shouldn't, but it does because people feel that that travel's gonna be hurt.

Speaker 1

你根本碰不了它。

You can't touch it.

Speaker 1

不行。

No.

Speaker 1

在股价再跌一点或者战争结束之前,我不会让你买。

I'm not gonna let you buy it until it goes lower or the war ends.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

它就跟好多其他因为战争而卡在半空中的股票一样。

It is just like so many other stocks that are stuck in purgatory because of the war.

Speaker 1

谢谢你的来电。

Thank you for the call.

Speaker 1

应用航空与国防领域。

Applied Aerospace and Defense.

Speaker 1

这名字真不错。

What a great name.

Speaker 1

我觉得它把所有方面都涵盖了。

I think it covers everything.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

虽然开局没什么意外,但你知道吗?

It didn't have a surprise start, but you know what?

Speaker 1

我觉得这样挺好。

I think that's good.

Speaker 1

这反而给你个机会,以比表面看起来更低的价格入手。

Gives you a good chance to buy some probably cheaper than it looks.

Speaker 1

看看我是在哪里赚到钱的,包括我和物流与数据中心REIT公司Prologis的合作,这是节目的老朋友了。

Watch where I made money at it, including my exclusive with logistics and data center REIT prologist, old friend of the show.

Speaker 1

还有几件事是市场可以做的,来保护散户投资者,比如SpaceX的IPO。

Then there's a few things the market could do to protect retail investors, such as the SpaceX IPO.

Speaker 1

我在这儿详细说说,这回我要重点推一推。

I'm gonna detail them here, and I'm gonna make this my push.

Speaker 1

我想帮大家省点钱。

I want to save people money.

Speaker 1

为了加快节奏,今晚这一轮直接进入闪电问答。

In order to cause rapid fire, tonight's decision to lightning round.

Speaker 1

继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

Speaker 1

没多久以前,ProLogistix 还只是个物流概念。

Not that long ago, ProLogistix was a logistics play.

Speaker 1

它现在是一家房地产投资信托基金。

It's a real estate investment trust.

Speaker 1

在全球二十个国家拥有并管理着十三亿平方英尺的物流设施。

Owns and manages 1,300,000,000 square feet of logistics facilities across 20 countries.

Speaker 1

有很多配送中心。

Lots of fulfillment centers.

Speaker 1

但他们后来意识到,可以把一些仓库改造成服务器机房,切入数据中心业务。

But then they realized they could take some of these warehouses and fill them full of servers, get a piece of the data center business.

Speaker 1

这种将AI基础设施融入仓储物流的转型,帮助股价在过去十二个月里上涨了30%。

This transition where AI infrastructure is a very important addition to warehousing logistics has helped the stock rally 30% over the past twelve months.

Speaker 1

我们常提到的那些超大规模云服务商,对这里都表现出了浓厚兴趣。

Have a lot of interest from the hyperscalers we talk about all the time.

Speaker 1

ProLogistix公布最新季度财报时,尽管公司正大力投入数据中心建设,业绩依然强劲。

When ProLodge reported its most recent quarter, the numbers came in strong even as the company's investing heavily in the data center build out.

Speaker 1

与此同时,核心物流业务也在好转,大型仓储空间在整个资产组合中几乎全部租满。

Meanwhile, the core logistics business is improving with large format spaces pretty much solid and sold out across the entire portfolio.

Speaker 1

这只股票还有上涨空间吗?

Could the stock have room to run?

Speaker 1

那我们来仔细看看丹·莱特。

Well, let's take a closer look at Dan Letter.

Speaker 1

他是ProLogistix的新任CEO,来聊聊具体情况,莱特先生,欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。

He's the new CEO of ProLogistix to find out, mister Letter, welcome, Mad Money.

Speaker 7

谢谢你邀请我,吉姆。

Thanks for having me, Jim.

Speaker 7

能来这里真的很高兴。

It's great to be here.

Speaker 1

首先,你接的可是个大摊子。

Well, first of all, you got big shoes.

Speaker 1

我得承认,哈米德·莫加丹是我们最早的嘉宾之一。

I have to admit, because Hamid Mogadan was one of our first guests.

Speaker 1

他真是个天才,让我学到了很多。

And what a genius he taught me so much.

Speaker 1

说说看,你打算做哪些类似的事?

Tell me what you wanna do that's similar.

Speaker 1

也许你会走不一样的路。

Maybe you've got some different courses to take.

Speaker 7

说实话,能在哈米德的团队里待了二十多年,我真是运气太好了。

I tell you, I couldn't be luckier to have been a part of Hamid's organization for over twenty two years.

Speaker 7

我是在一月一号正式接任的,之前有一套非常周密的交接计划,一路上从他身上学到了很多。

I just took the helm January 1 after a very methodical transition plan and learned a lot from him along the way.

Speaker 7

接下来你会看到的,是哈米德一手打造的追求卓越的公司文化。

What you're going to see continue is the culture of enduring excellence that Hamid built this company on.

Speaker 7

这种文化就是始终把客户放在第一位。

That culture is commitment to our customers.

Speaker 7

它强调长期主义和价值创造。

It's absolute focus on the long term and value creation.

Speaker 7

你可能会注意到的一点变化是,现在事情的推进速度比以往任何时候都快。

And what you're gonna see maybe change a bit is the fact that things are moving faster than ever.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

我们眼下面临的机遇规模,是前所未有的。

The just the size of the opportunity that we have is like we've never had before.

Speaker 1

你能不能详细说说这个?

Why don't you talk about that?

Speaker 1

因为哈米德当时很明智,没有去刻意炒作某个领域。

Because Hamid was, I think correctly, was not going to hype an area, to speak.

Speaker 1

他为人非常稳重,我相信你也是这样的人。

That's He's a very solid guy, as I'm sure you are.

Speaker 1

但这些数据中心的机会确实太好了,不容错过。

But but it does seem like such a great opportunity to do these data centers.

Speaker 7

这确实很了不起。

It's pretty amazing.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

我们的业务是围绕着全球经济布局的,全球20个国家有6000栋建筑,全都靠近最具活力的人口中心。

We built our business around the the economy where we're we have 6,000 buildings in 20 countries closest to the most dynamic population centers in the world.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

这其实也正是现代经济的运作模式。

And that is actually the blueprint for the modern economy as well.

Speaker 7

所以我们拥有并掌控着原材料、土地和建筑。

So we own and control the raw material, the land, the buildings.

Speaker 7

我们还在这些城市周边拥有14000英亩的土地,早就买下来为未来的物流建设做好了准备。

We have 14,000 acres of land also near these city centers that we we bought and positioned for future logistics build out.

Speaker 7

光是这些土地,就能再建2.4亿平方英尺的设施。

We can build out another 240,000,000 square feet from that land bank.

Speaker 7

但现在我们重点是激活这些土地的潜力。

But now we we focused on on energizing that land.

Speaker 7

没错。

Right.

Speaker 7

大概五年前,我们就开始专注这件事了。

We we really started focusing on that about five years ago or so.

Speaker 7

现在我们已经为这些土地配备了56亿瓦的电力。

And now we have 5.6 gigawatts of power that we've energized.

Speaker 1

哦,原来这么大啊。

Oh, it's how big that is.

Speaker 1

这可不是个小数目。

That's not a small amount.

Speaker 7

没错,规模相当大。

No, it's it's significant.

Speaker 7

我们有几十个项目,类型多样,从二三十兆瓦的部署,到超过一吉瓦的大项目都有。

It is, you know, it's a few dozen projects, wide ranging projects from 20 to 30 megawatt deployments to upwards of a gigawatt.

Speaker 7

这些项目规模都很大,不是小打小闹。

And these are really lumpy projects.

Speaker 7

这些项目都是经过多年积累才做成的。

And this is years in the making.

Speaker 7

再想想我们掌控的资源:六千栋建筑,一万四千英亩的土地。

And then again, think about the raw material we control, the 6,000 buildings, the 14,000 acres of land.

Speaker 7

我们手头还有比这5.6吉瓦多得多的电力潜力。

There's a lot more gigawatts behind the 5.6 we're talking about.

Speaker 1

哈米德是第一个跟我提的,你知道吗?

Now, Hamid was the first to tell me, you know what?

Speaker 1

我们有这些屋顶,可以在上面安装太阳能板。

We have these roofs, and on the roofs, we can do solar.

Speaker 1

我觉得这对你们来说是个巨大的优势。

I imagine that's a tremendous advantage for you guys.

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

这确实很了不起。

It really amazing.

Speaker 7

我们二十多年前就开始在屋顶装太阳能了,大约五年前决定不再把它当爱好,而是当成正经生意来做。

We've been putting solar on our roofs for over twenty years and we decided about five years ago to stop doing it as a hobby and make it a business.

Speaker 7

现在,我们通过太阳能和储能业务产生的电力已经达到13亿瓦。

We now actually have 1.3 gigawatts of power that we generate from our solar and our storage business.

Speaker 7

想想看,一吉瓦是什么概念。

And think about a gigawatt.

Speaker 7

一吉瓦的电力可以供应大约一百万户家庭。

Gigawatt can energize about a million homes.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

这可是个大生意。

So this is a huge business.

Speaker 7

吉姆,到目前为止,我们的屋顶才用了8%。

And Jim, it's only 8% of our roofs so far today.

Speaker 7

我们在能源领域还有巨大的发展空间。

So we have a huge runway in this energy business.

Speaker 1

meanwhile,我们通常会聊全国范围内出色的业绩表现。

Now meantime, I mean, normally, we'd be talking about the the excellent turn all over the country.

Speaker 1

我之前担心过南部地区。

I was worried about the Southland.

Speaker 1

现在看起来情况在好转。

It looks like getting better.

Speaker 1

我曾经对纽约感到担忧,但现在的业绩组合,比我在这公司这么多年里见过的都要健康。

I was worried about New York at one point, but it seems like that the portfolio is about as healthy as I've ever seen it in all the years I've said in the company.

Speaker 7

你开头就说到点子上了。

You you hit this on your intro.

Speaker 7

上个季度末,我们在13亿平方英尺的面积里,还有超过50万平方英尺的空置空间。

At the end of last quarter, we had four spaces in our 1,300,000,000 square feet, over 500,000 square feet that were available.

Speaker 7

现在大型空间已经全部租完了。

And that we're we're sold out of of large format space.

Speaker 7

过去六个季度,客户一直在持续增加需求。

We have seen customers really continue to lean in for the last six quarters.

Speaker 7

我们创下了租赁面积的新纪录。

We've broken records for leasing.

Speaker 7

第一季度我们租出了6400万平方英尺,这个季度客户还在不断做决定。

In the first quarter, we leased 64,000,000 square feet, and what we're seeing continue through this quarter is decisions are being made.

Speaker 7

客户和我们签租约时,通常会考虑五到十年的长期规划,现在他们依然在这么做。

Customers make five, seven, ten year decisions when they sign leases with us and and we're seeing them continue to do so.

Speaker 1

你觉得电商占了多大比例?

And how much would you say is e commerce?

Speaker 7

电子商务现在势头特别猛。

Ecommerce is is on fire.

Speaker 7

电子商务一直走在前面,而且有一个非常关键的点,能解释为什么它这么重要。

Ecommerce has really been leading and and one, I think, really important status that relates to why ecommerce is so important.

Speaker 7

和实体店相比,电子商务使用的仓储空间是它的三倍。

Ecommerce compared to brick and mortar uses three times more warehouse space.

Speaker 7

所有这些活动——SKU数量激增、消费者对速度和选择的高要求——最终都体现在我们的仓库里。

All those activities, the proliferation of SKUs, the desire for speed and choice that you want, as an end consumer with e commerce, work, all that activity goes into our warehouses.

Speaker 7

随着电子商务在零售总额中的占比持续提升,这对物流地产来说是个巨大的利好。

So as you see e commerce and the penetration of e commerce and retail sales continue, that's a big tailwind for logistics real estate.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

那你们是怎么找到足够靠近城市、让亚马逊这样的公司还愿意用的仓库的呢?

Now how are you doing it still finding space close enough to the cities to make it so that one of the and Amazon would still want to use?

Speaker 7

我们几十年来一直在精心打造这个资产组合。

Well, we've been curating this portfolio for decades.

Speaker 7

确实如此。

It's true.

Speaker 7

说起来挺有意思的。

You know, it's interesting.

Speaker 7

这13亿平方英尺的面积里,过去十五年我们卖出了2.2亿平方英尺,因为我们非常专注。

This 1,300,000,000 square feet, we've actually sold 220,000,000 square feet over the last fifteen years because we're very focused.

Speaker 7

我们始终把客户放在决策的核心位置。

We put the customer at the center of our decisions.

Speaker 7

我们想知道客户想去哪里。

We wanna know where the customer wants to go.

Speaker 7

我们拥有出色的客户基础,一直紧贴客户需求,这帮助我们在全球100个市场中实地寻找机会,更好地服务客户。

We we have a a fantastic customer franchise and and we stay close to them, and and that helps us with our boots on the ground strategy in a 100 markets around the world constantly be looking for those opportunities so we can service those customers.

Speaker 1

明白了。

Okay.

Speaker 1

最后一个问题。

Then last question.

Speaker 1

这个问题是问哈米德的,我很敬重他,所以才这样问你。

This for Hamid, you know, and I revere him, so I ask you like that.

Speaker 1

我想问问您,先生,我是不是太侧重数据中心,而忽略了核心业务?

I think I would say, do you think, sir, that I am emphasizing the data center too much versus the core business?

Speaker 1

我觉得核心业务才是我们的根本。

What I would say is the core business, that's our bread and butter.

Speaker 7

没错。

Right.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

我们现在的租赁合同都有公允价值调整。

We have right now a mark to market in our leases.

Speaker 7

如果我们把全部一万一千份租约作废,按当前市场价重签,利润会直接增加七亿五千万美元。

If we tore up all 11,000 leases and rewrote them to today's market, we would have $750,000,000 dropped to the bottom line.

Speaker 7

这本身就是一笔巨大的内生增长。

Just huge organic growth right there.

Speaker 7

我们平时经常聊数据中心的事吗?

Do we talk a lot about data centers?

Speaker 7

我们有经常讨论正在打造的新业务吗?

Do we talk a lot about the new business as we're building those capabilities?

Speaker 7

当然了。

Absolutely.

Speaker 7

但我认为,数据中心是公司历史上最大的价值创造机会之一。

But I see data centers as one of the largest value creation opportunities in the company's history.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's true.

Speaker 1

我们就说到这儿吧,虽然股价涨得像火箭一样,但股息率还有3%。

Let's leave it at that because the stock's been a rocket, but it still has a 3% yield.

Speaker 1

我以前总跟他说,那是2008年金融危机时最先触底的股票。

And, as I always told him, mean, first stock to bottom in the two thousand eight great recession.

Speaker 1

第一只股票。

First stock.

Speaker 1

这正是我一直这么喜欢它的原因之一。

That's one of the reasons why I've always liked it so much.

Speaker 1

丹·莱昂纳德是Pro Lodges的首席执行官,马上回来继续《疯狂金钱》。

Dan Leonard is the CEO of Pro Lodges, and Mad Money will be right back.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 0

接下来,他是华尔街反应最快的人,我们要借助大家的帮助来考验他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

Speaker 0

接下来进入闪电问答环节。

Bring on the lightning round next.

Speaker 1

闪电问答结束后。

And then the lightning round is over.

Speaker 1

你准备好了吗?

Are you ready?

Speaker 1

滑雪板马上到。

Ski deck on the way.

Speaker 1

接下来要讲的是我在新泽西和本一起做的另一个项目。

We're coming to my other start with Ben in New Jersey.

Speaker 1

本。

Ben.

Speaker 8

再次感谢你所做的一切。

Thanks again for all you do.

Speaker 8

俱乐部的活动办得真棒。

Great club meetings.

Speaker 8

样样都出色。

Great everything.

Speaker 8

我需要你帮个忙,关于杰·弗罗格。

I need your help with Jay Frog.

Speaker 8

从报价里稍微减一点怎么样?

Is it good take a little off the table?

Speaker 1

软件开发是个不错的行当,但市盈率太高了。

Software development is a good business, but the multiple's too high.

Speaker 1

明天早上你把报价稍微降一点。

I want you to take a little off the table tomorrow morning.

Speaker 1

我们转到新泽西的乔那里。

Let's go to Joe in New Jersey.

Speaker 1

乔。

Joe.

Speaker 1

乔。

Joe.

Speaker 1

你来说吧。

Go ahead.

Speaker 1

该你了,乔。

You're up, Joe.

Speaker 1

嘿,乔。

Hey, Joe.

Speaker 1

最近怎么样,克拉默?

What's up, Cramer?

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

现在什么情况?

What's going on?

Speaker 1

谢谢你接我的电话。

Thank you for taking my call.

Speaker 1

我需要在投资组合里加一家医疗健康公司。

I I need a health care company to add to my portfolio.

Speaker 1

我刚买了贝克顿·迪金森。

I just bought Beckton Dickinson.

Speaker 1

我得再买一些。

I got to buy.

Speaker 1

贝克顿狄金森现在的股价,是我见过的最低水平。

Beckton Dickinson is selling frankly at the lowest level to the market that I have ever seen.

Speaker 1

我觉得可以先买一些,然后看看他们会不会跌得更狠。

I think you buy some and then you wait to see if they even oversell it more.

Speaker 1

这只股票现在便宜得不得了。

That stock is very inexpensive.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下加利福尼亚的杰里。

Let's go to Jerry in California.

Speaker 1

杰里。

Jerry.

Speaker 8

吉姆,你不久前刚做过桑坦德银行的专题报道。

Jim great feature not too long ago on Santander Bank.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

差不多到了

Close to a

Speaker 8

这得归功于你。

credit to you.

Speaker 8

根据你的建议,这个投资的回报已经快翻了三倍。

We're we're close to a triple on that based on your recommendation.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

这个其实是按常规操作来的。

Well, that's a that was on a routine.

Speaker 1

我很欣赏她。

I think the world of her.

Speaker 1

我知道这只股票已经涨了不少。

I know that the stock has had a big run.

Speaker 1

我觉得现在它只是停下来喘口气。

I think it's paused here as it catches its breath.

Speaker 1

我不希望别人卖出它。

I don't want people to sell it.

Speaker 1

如果它跌回10块,我会建议大家买入。

If it came back to 10, I tell people to buy it.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下新泽西的玛丽尔。

Let's go to Mariel in New Jersey.

Speaker 1

玛丽尔。

Mariel.

Speaker 9

嗨,吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

Speaker 9

谢谢你今天接我的电话。

Thanks for taking my call today.

Speaker 9

我的问题是这样的。

My question is sure.

Speaker 9

没错。

Sure.

Speaker 9

我的问题关于一家叫 Backblaze 的公司。

My question is about a company called Backblaze.

Speaker 9

这是一家提供云存储服务的公司,目前在纳斯达克上市。

It's a storage a cloud storage platform currently trades on the Nasdaq.

Speaker 9

我个人一直在用他们的产品。

I use their products personally.

Speaker 9

我觉得他们的技术非常出色。

I find their technology to be excellent.

Speaker 9

所以我做了不少功课,做了一些研究,觉得可能是个买入机会,但很想听听你的看法。

So I did my homework, did a little bit of research, and I'm thinking it might be a buy, but I'd love to get your thoughts.

Speaker 1

说实话,马里奥,我对 Backblaze 不太了解。

Candidly, Mario, I do not know back place.

Speaker 1

我这就跟本·斯图托商量一下,帮你查清楚。

I'm going to huddle with Ben Stutto, and we're gonna find out for you.

Speaker 1

还是让懂行的人来回答比较好,我可不想随便应付。

It's better that, you know, a guy just I I I'm not punting.

Speaker 1

我得再多了解一下这家公司。

I just need to learn more about this company.

Speaker 1

我们连线一下爱荷华州的蒂姆。

Let's go to Tim in Iowa.

Speaker 1

蒂姆,你好。

Tim.

Speaker 8

吉姆,几年前我打开电视,听见一个人说他们什么都不知道。

Jim, several years ago, I turned on the television and heard this guy say they know nothing.

Speaker 8

我听了之后做了些研究,第二天就把钱取出来了,那是个明智的决定。

I listened and did some homework, the next morning went to cash, and that was a good decision.

Speaker 1

谢谢你的分享。

Well, thank you.

Speaker 1

8月8日快到了。

That was August 8 is coming up.

Speaker 1

那是我老朋友亚伦·伯内特和我。

That was my old friend, Aaron Burnett, and I.

Speaker 1

很高兴你听了进去,咱们这才避开了几千点的下跌。

I'm glad that you listened, and we were able to avoid, thousands of points of decline.

Speaker 1

现在我能怎么帮您?

How can I help you now?

Speaker 8

最近太空股挺热门的。

Well, space stocks are in the news.

Speaker 8

我一直在关注F Jet的走势,跌宕起伏的。

I've been watching f jet bounce around.

Speaker 8

它能撑得住吗?

Can it run?

Speaker 1

天哪。

Oh, boy.

Speaker 1

连续两次了。

Two in a row.

Speaker 1

我对F Jet一点都不了解。

I do not know F Jet.

Speaker 1

真希望我能了解。

I wish I did.

Speaker 1

大概是一家不错的公司。

Probably a good company.

Speaker 1

但再说一遍,我们还是要继续干活。

But, again, we're gonna do work.

Speaker 1

与其说‘这听起来挺有意思’,不如干脆说‘我回头再回复你’。

Always better to say, let me come back than it is to say, that seems interesting.

Speaker 1

各位,这就是闪电环节的全部内容了。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.

Speaker 0

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

Speaker 0

接下来我们会带来更多关于即将公布的SpaceX上市消息,克拉默将为大家分析他眼中的优缺点。

Coming up with more details of the looming SpaceX IPO being revealed, Cramer showcasing the good and the bad as he sees it.

Speaker 1

下一个。

Next.

Speaker 1

我觉得操办SpaceX上市的人初衷很好。

I think the people orchestrating the SpaceX IPO have really good intentions.

Speaker 1

他们计划出售超过5.55亿股股票,其中30%直接分配给了个人投资者。

With the more than 555,000,000 shares they plan to sell, they're allocating 30% of the deal directly to retail investors.

Speaker 1

投资者。

Investors.

Speaker 1

这种事在热门IPO里简直闻所未闻。

That's unheard of at a hot deal.

Speaker 1

这种做法会让股价一开盘就大幅飙升,所有个人投资者都能赚到。

The type of that that's the kind of thing that's gonna expect it to open dramatically higher, all retail investors are gonna win.

Speaker 1

通常,承销商更愿意把大笔股票给长期合作的机构投资者,而不是散户。

Generally, the book runners prefer to give big chunks of stock to loyal institutional investors, not home gamers.

Speaker 1

我喜欢这种做法。

I like this.

Speaker 1

考虑到这家公司估值高达1.77万亿美元,这样的配售规模非常到位,我为马斯克对散户的重视点赞——散户喜欢长期持有,而不是频繁交易。

Given that this is slated to be a $1,770,000,000,000 company, that's an excellent sized placement, and I salute Elon Musk for his devotion to retail, which likes to hold on, not trade.

Speaker 1

我也挺喜欢135美元这个股价的。

I like the actual dollar price of a $135 too.

Speaker 1

这个价格能吸引那些想追随马斯克、但不想沾上特斯拉汽车业务的人。

It could attract owners who want to latch onto Musk without the automobile baggage of Tesla.

Speaker 1

摩根士丹利和嘉信理财会负责处理小额订单。

Morgan Stanley and Jones E Trade will handle the small orders.

Speaker 1

这确实很棒。

Again, that's terrific.

Speaker 1

他们肯定知道该怎么操作。

They know how to do it for certain.

Speaker 1

可能已经有点晚了,但我相信有嘉信账户的人还有机会参与,这又是个好消息。

It's probably too late, but I'm sure those who have an account with E Trade have a chance to get in on the deal, which is terrific again.

Speaker 1

这是好消息。

That's the good news.

Speaker 1

接下来是不太好的消息。

Now here's the not good news.

Speaker 1

虽然太空探索技术公司的这笔交易有三分之一是留给小投资者的,但相比我预期那天会有的整体需求,这点份额简直微不足道。

While one third of the SpaceX deal is being allocated to small investors, that's a tiny piece of the overall demand I expect to happen that day.

Speaker 1

我这辈子从来没见过这么抢手的交易。

I have never in my life ever seen a deal that was this much in demand.

Speaker 1

很多人非常钦佩马斯克创造财富的能力。

There are plenty of people who revere Musk's ability to create wealth.

Speaker 1

他们并不介意他在过程中赚了大钱,因为从历史上看,他确实值这个价。

They don't mind that he makes a lot of money for himself in the process because historically he's worth it.

Speaker 1

那问题到底出在哪呢?

So what's the matter then?

Speaker 1

来找我问这件事的人——应该说,有无数人想参与这笔太空探索技术公司的交易——来自各行各业。

The people who've come up to me to ask me about this, I should say the myriad people who want to be asked about the Spaces deal, They come from all walks of life.

Speaker 1

他们都铁了心要分一杯羹。

They're determined to get a piece of the IPO.

Speaker 1

很多人以前根本没买过股票。

Many have never bought a stock before.

Speaker 1

他们不明白,摩根士丹利的E*TRADE首先有责任照顾好客户。

They don't understand that Morgan Stanley's E Trade has a responsibility to reward its clients first.

Speaker 1

他们对价格根本不敏感。

They are not price sensitive.

Speaker 1

一旦开始交易,他们会直接用市价单下单,我担心他们真的会吃亏。

They will use market orders except the any price once it starts trading, and I fear that they indeed will be hurt.

Speaker 1

我不清楚油企分完后还剩多少,但可以肯定的是,跟需求比起来,这点份额简直微不足道。

I have no idea how much will be left over after the oil rewarded, but I can tell you that it will just be a sliver versus the demand.

Speaker 1

到目前为止,还没人提过一旦SpaceX开始交易,会涌进多少市价单。

So far, haven't heard one word about the market orders that will come in over the transom once SpaceX starts trading.

Speaker 1

这些订单才是我最担心的,就是这些买家。

These are the orders that these are the people that I'm most worried about.

Speaker 1

没错,这次发行价定在1.35美元。

Sure, the deal's coming in at $1.35.

Speaker 1

我觉得可能有几十万,甚至上百万的新手投资者,都想在上市后买上一点SpaceX的股票。

I think there could be hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of people who are new to the market and want some SpaceX after it starts trading.

Speaker 1

他们会打电话给经纪人,说不管什么价格都想要一些。

They'll call the brokers and say they want some at any price.

Speaker 1

他们没意识到,如果不设限价,成交价就是开盘价。

They don't realize that unless you put a limit on it, you're gonna get the opening price.

Speaker 1

我跟你讲,绝对不可能是1.35美元。

And believe me, it will not be $1.35.

Speaker 1

如果SpaceX跟最近刚上市的Cerebras差不多,我估计开盘价至少得是135美元的两倍。

If SpaceX is anything like the recent far more prosaic Cerebras, I suspect it could open at at least double the $135 price.

Speaker 1

两倍。

Double.

Speaker 1

没错。

True.

Speaker 1

忠诚的投资者会拿到股票作为回报。

The faith will be rewarded with stock.

Speaker 1

不过,也许他们根本不在乎一开始被套得有多惨。

Although, maybe they don't care about being down big at the old at the beginning though.

Speaker 1

我觉得那些下市价单的人,会像在路易斯安那州格兰德艾尔钓上来的 tarpon 一样被狠狠宰一刀。

I think that those who put in market orders will be gaffed like a tarpon caught off at Grand Isle, Louisiana.

Speaker 1

这事儿在九十年代就发生过。

This is exactly what happened in the nineties.

Speaker 1

一群经纪商把所有市价单集中起来,定个他们觉得肯定压不住的开盘价,然后一路打压,让所有在开盘时买入的人血本无归。

A bunch of brokers batched all the market orders together, came up with a price to open that they were sure wouldn't hold short of the stock, and then walked it down to where everyone who bought it and the opening got crushed, ruined.

Speaker 1

很多人从此一蹶不振。

Many never came back.

Speaker 1

当年 TheStreet.com 首次上市时就是这么回事,我眼睁睁看着发生,却无能为力。

That was what happened with the IPO of thestreet.com and I could do nothing to stop it and I saw it happen.

Speaker 1

承销商该怎么做才对?

What should the book runners do differently?

Speaker 1

我有几个想法。

I got some ideas.

Speaker 1

他们应该做两件事。

They should do two things.

Speaker 1

首先,第一天禁止市价单,只允许限价单。

First, ban market orders in the first day, limit or nothing.

Speaker 1

其次,应该准备一批随时可以卖出的卖家,这些人愿意把握短期收益,并且已经解除持股限制。

And second, they should have a group of ready sellers, people who could be unlocked, are willing to take the short term gain and are released from restrictions to sell.

Speaker 1

他们必须能阻止股价过快飙升,别让这家估值1.77万亿美元的企业一夜之间变成4万亿美元的泡沫——这正是我最担心的事,而且我觉得迟早会发生。

They need to be able to stop the stock soaring at a reasonable level and not let this $1,770,000,000,000 enterprise turn into a proverbial $4,000,000,000,000 overnight enterprise, which is by the way my worst fear and I think it's gonna happen.

Speaker 1

我猜负责这次发行的人会说:我们不能禁市价单,克雷默疯了。

Now I'm sure there are people running the deal who say, we can't ban market orders, Cramer's crazy.

Speaker 1

我会回应说:这个政府说不定反而会赞赏你们试图保护散户免受自身冲动的伤害。

I come back and say, this particular government might be thrilled that you try to protect small investors from themselves.

Speaker 1

也有人会说:埃隆不希望任何人解禁卖出,却没意识到,如果没有自然的卖方,我们很可能重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙。

There will be others who will who will say, Elon doesn't want anyone to sell and be released from the lockups, failing to realize that without natural sellers, we could run into a .com debacle again.

Speaker 1

就拿Cerebras来说,那些在开盘时买入的人已经亏惨了,而且这个项目吸引了大量散户投资者。

As it is, Cerebras, that has been a debacle for anyone who bought any stock at the open, and that deal was flooded with retail investors.

Speaker 1

别误会我的意思。

Do not get me wrong.

Speaker 1

我喜欢SpaceX。

I like SpaceX.

Speaker 1

我是Starlink的忠实用户,我觉得它真能给现有巨头造成不小冲击。

I'm an enthusiastic user of Starlight, which I think can really play havoc with the incumbents.

Speaker 1

我相信太空站和轨道上的数据中心,但我不认同市场单,尤其是那种会让股价远超马斯克原本善意规划的订单。

I believe in the space place and the orbital data centers, but I don't believe in market orders, especially ones that will cause the stock to soar well beyond Musk's pathway of very good intentions.

Speaker 1

我常这么说,市场永远还有的是机会。

I like to say there's always more market summer.

Speaker 1

我保证,我会帮你或者你身边的人找到资金。

I promise I'll find just for you or your man money.

Speaker 1

我是吉姆·克拉默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

Speaker 1

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

Speaker 10

吉姆·克拉默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见,不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场,这些观点也可能曾在电视、广播、网络或其他媒体上发表。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

Speaker 10

不要把吉姆·克拉默的任何观点当作具体的投资建议或操作策略,它只是表达他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

Speaker 10

克拉默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息,但CNBC及其关联公司并不保证这些信息的完整或准确,因此不应以此为依据。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Speaker 10

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明,请访问 cnbc.com/MadMoney disclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/ Mad Money disclaimer.

Speaker 0

7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道将携手Fanatics Fest,共同探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

Speaker 0

请前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

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