Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/30/26

尤其是白宫对以反垄断为由阻止这些交易几乎没什么兴趣。

Especially when the White House has very little interest in blocking these deals in any trust grounds.

反垄断的理由。

Grounds.

把这些公司加入你的关注清单，等市场像往常一样在下半年回落时，果断买入。

Put these groups on your shopping list and prepare to buy them when the market takes one of its typical second half swoons.

广告后，《疯狂金钱》继续为您带来精彩内容。

Mad Money's back after the break.

接下来，美光科技今年已成为股市表现最亮眼的股票之一。

Coming up, Micron has emerged as one of the stock market's biggest winners this year.

但这家公司还能继续创造更大的涨幅吗？

But can the company keep building even greater gains?

克拉默接下来将直接采访公司高层。

Cramer's asking the top brass next.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

请前往 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

我们得聊聊当前市场最大的热点——内存芯片短缺，正是这场短缺把美光推入了万亿俱乐部，今年至今股价已经涨了超过300%。

We need to talk about the biggest story in this market, the memory chip shortage that's propelled Micron into the trillion dollar club with its stock up more than 300% year to date.

过去，美光一直被看作是一家普通的芯片制造商。

Now in the old days, Micron was widely seen as a commodity chipmaker.

现在不一样了。

No more.

数据中心对高端内存的需求太旺盛了，而这家公司的芯片技术也更加独特。

There's so much demand for high end memory for the data center, and the company's chips are much more proprietary.

独特到如今简直是在印钞票，而且我觉得他们完全配得上。

So proprietary that they're practically printing money these days, and I think they deserve to.

上周，美光公布了远超预期的季度业绩，这是我从业以来见过最惊人的超预期表现之一，营收达到415亿美元，而华尔街原本只预期360亿。

Last week, Micron reported a blowout quarter, one of the biggest beats I've ever seen in my whole life, racking up 41,500,000,000 in revenues when Wall Street was only looking for 36,000,000,000.

这相当于上个季度增长了74%。

That's 74% growth just versus the previous quarter.

他们每股盈利25.11美元，比预期高出4美元多。

They earned $25.11 per share, more than $4 ahead of expectations.

毛利率高达85%，在科技行业里简直惊人，而且本季度的业绩还会更好，因为美光一直在和那些急着锁定芯片供应的企业签订所谓的战略合作协议。

Gross margin is 85%, staggering for tech, and the current quarter's on track to be even better because Micron keeps signing up what are called both strategic customer agreements with businesses that are desperate to lock up supply of their chips.

这里的市场需求看起来完全没有尽头。

There seems to be no end to the line of sight here for demand.

但即便经历了这么强劲的上涨，股价依然不到盈利的八倍。

But even after this incredible run, the stock sells for less than eight times earnings.

它还能继续涨下去吗？

Can it keep running?

我们来连线美光的董事长、总裁兼首席执行官桑贾伊·梅赫罗特拉，听听他的看法。

Let's check-in with Sanjay Mehrotra, the chairman, president, CEO of Micron to find out.

梅赫罗特拉先生，恭喜您取得这么好的业绩，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Mister Mehrotra, congratulations on the quarter, and welcome back to Mad Money.

谢谢您，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

能回到你的节目里，我真的很高兴。

It's great to be back on your show.

首先，我想谈一件刚刚发生的事，我觉得这充分体现了你们对国家的长远规划。

Well, first, I'm gonna start with something that just occurred that I think is really a sign of what you wanna do in with our great country.

你们投入了两亿五千万美元，支持一百万儿童、家庭，也就是未来的劳动力。

This $250,000,000 investment in Trump accounts reaching 1,000,000 children, families, the future workforce.

你们为什么要做这件事？

Why did you do it?

吉姆，值此美国建国二百五十周年之际，我们非常激动地宣布，美光将投资两亿五千万美元，支持在七个运营州、二十一个县的一百万名儿童。

Jim, we are very excited as part of America's two fiftieth celebration to announce today that Micron will be investing $250,000,000 to support 1,000,000 children in seven different states where Micron operates, 21 different counties.

我们用这二十五亿美元作为儿童信托基金的启动资金。

And we are doing this with the seed money for 200 with $250 into Trump accounts of children.

这真正是为了建设美国的未来。

And this is really to build the future of America.

儿童才是美国的未来。

The children are the future of America.

美光不仅仅是一家搞科技和商业的公司。

Micron is not a company just about technology and business.

我们更看重人和社区。

We are very much about people and about communities.

我早就知道你是这样的，而且这么多年一直都没变过。

I know that about you, and I know that to be the case for many, many years.

现在，这正是你的千亿美元时刻，桑贾伊。

Now this is your trillion dollar moment, Sanjay.

所以，跟我们说说，你是怎么走到这一步的？你觉得这种势头能持续下去吗？

So So tell us what you think how'd that come about and whether you think it's sustainable?

我很高兴看到我们五万五千名员工和华尔街团队所取得的成果。

You know, very pleased with the work that our 55,000 team members, Wall Street, have done.

美光现在是全面发力。

Micron is firing on all cylinders.

这一切都建立在存储器的价值之上。

It is based on the value of memory.

如今，内存已成为人工智能时代的关键支撑，从数据中心到边缘设备，从服务器、智能手机、个人电脑到汽车，再到工业和消费类应用，无处不在。

Memory has become today a key enabler in AI era from data center to edge, from servers to smartphones to PCs to automobiles, industrial and consumer applications.

无论AI系统运行在什么设备上，要想充分发挥其潜力，都需要更多、更快的内存。

Every AI system, regardless of the device it is in, requires more memory at higher performance in order to really bring out the full potential of AI capabilities.

过去内存一直很有价值，但今天的内存价值，早已不可同日而语。

So, of course, memory has always been valuable in the past, but the value of memory is not like it ever was.

它的价值还在持续攀升。

It's continuing to increase.

现在的内存，已经变得不可或缺。

Memory today has really become essential.

它在整个人工智能生态系统中的作用，已经提升到了全新高度。

Its role in this AI ecosystem is elevated.

吉姆，人工智能还处在非常早期的阶段。

And you know, Jim, AI is in very early innings.

没错。

Right.

未来，我们的客户还有巨大机会，通过他们的解决方案改变世界，推动全球经济增长。

There is lot of opportunity ahead for our customers to transform the world with their solutions, drive economic growth globally.

这一切都离不开内存。

It all needs memory.

需求趋势是长期、稳固且强劲的。

So the demand trends are long term secular strong demand trends.

供应方面我们谈过瓶颈，而当前供需格局表明，紧张状态将持续到2027年之后。

Supply, we have talked about the constraints, and that environment of demand and supply is such that we see it going beyond tightness, going beyond 2027.

你用了‘长期结构性增长’这个词。

You used the keyword secular, secular growth.

大家一直觉得你们公司是周期性增长的代表。

People always associate your company with cyclical growth.

即便现在市盈率已经高达八倍，还是有很多人觉得它迟早得回落。

Still, even with this eight times earnings PE multiple, there are a lot of people who think it has to come down.

但你们有战略合作，说明未必会跌，而且你一直说，根本看不到尽头。

But you have strategic agreements that would indicate that it doesn't have to, And you keep saying no end line of sight.

找不到。

Can't find it.

我们已经和客户签署了多项战略合作协议，覆盖数据中心、汽车和消费市场。

You know, we have signed these strategic customer agreements with customers addressing data center, automotive, and consumer markets.

这些协议非常重要。

So these are very important.

当然，数据中心确实是内存和存储的最大市场，但其他市场也同样庞大。

And, of course, when you look at the data center market, yes, it's become the largest market for memory and storage, but other markets are large too.

美光公司40%的营收来自消费、汽车和工业市场。

Micron has 40% of its revenue coming from consumer, automotive, and industrial markets.

这些市场同样至关重要。

So these are very important markets.

这些战略合作协议充分体现了客户对自身产品布局人工智能机遇的信心。

These strategic customer agreements reflect the confidence that the customers have across the end markets in their plans for products to address the AI opportunity.

这最能反映客户对我们内存产品的重视程度。

So this is really the best reflection of how customers value our memory.

明白了。

Okay.

那这怎么可能呢？

So how is it possible?

我记得之前跟你说过，你们那边给数据中心供货的公司，比如Lam、KLA、AMAT，根本没料到会这样。

I know I talked with you quite a bit that most of the companies in your end, the the suppliers to the data center, Lam, KLA, AMAT, really didn't see it coming.

几乎没人能预见，因为很多人都在想，等等，这到底是怎么回事？

Almost no one saw it coming because I think a lot of people are saying, wait a second.

是这些公司在囤货吗？

Are these guys hoarding?

这是不是形成了垄断？

Is it an oligopoly?

是不是垄断定价？

Is it oligopolizing pricing?

但我认为，这种需求根本不可能被预测到。

But I think that it was impossible to see this demand.

你知道，就连我们的客户也没能预测到这么高的需求。

You know, certainly, even our customers could not forecast this demand.

而且，当你回头看2023年那段时期，那时候行业里有些客户确实把我们的产品价格压得特别低。

And, you know, but certainly, when we were coming out of the 2023 time frame, which is when actually the industry, certain customers drove pricing significantly down in our industry.

这直接导致了某些客户和某些产品的毛利率严重为负。

And that, of course, resulted in significant negative gross margins, you know, for certain customers, certain products.

这严重削弱了整个行业的投资能力。

And that really impacted the investment capability of the industry.

你们公司当时亏钱了。

Your companies were losing money.

根本负担不起。

They couldn't you couldn't afford it.

说得对。

Exactly right.

我确实负担不起。

I couldn't afford it.

不过，尽管行业价格受到某些客户的影响，给我们的盈利和资产负债表带来了巨大压力，美光依然坚持投资。

However, Micron absolutely invested even with the headwinds of the industry pricing driven by certain customers in our industry, it really impacting our profitability and the balance sheet.

即使在2023年，我们也投入了整整一百亿美元，用于引领内存技术和产能的升级。

We invested even in 2023 time frame, ten billion dollars towards leading in memory technology as well as memory supply.

当然，相比前一年，这些投资大幅减少了。

Of course, those investments were significantly cut back from the year prior.

吉姆，2023年我们的价格跌到了2020年的三分之一，是客户把价格压到了这种不合理的水平，但美光依然有远见，坚持为未来布局。

Jim, in '23, our prices came down to one third of what they were in 2020 Customers drove those prices to these unproductive levels, yet Micron had the vision of investing for the future.

你们确实有远见。

You had the vision.

我记得当时想让你说准一点，你说我太乐观了，但反正你都得花钱，只是那时候现金流跟不上。

As I remember trying to pin you down, you told me I was a little too optimistic, but you're gonna have to spend anyway, but you didn't have the cash flow.

现在你们有现金流了。

Now you got the cash flow.

接下来打算怎么用？

What are you gonna do with it?

所以我要说，那个时期确实造成了不小的影响。

So I have to tell you that those that time frame definitely impacted Right.

整个行业的供应能力都受到了冲击。

The supply capability in the industry.

当然，现在我们又开始加大投入了。

Of course, now we are investing.

我们正在美国投入两千亿美元，同时在全球Micron有制造基地的各个地方同步布局。

We are investing $200,000,000,000 of investments right here in The US, investments globally across where Micron operates, has manufacturing plants.

这些投资主要是为了提升产能，但需要相当长的时间，因为得从零开始建设新工厂。

And these investments are very much geared toward trying to bring on supply, but it takes considerable period of time because that requires greenfield supply.

我们当然会继续投资业务本身。

And, of course, we will invest in the business.

我们会加大研发的投入。

We'll invest in r and d.

也会继续投资制造环节。

We'll invest in manufacturing.

我们还会投资于创新、产品领先地位，以及让供应跟上市场需求。

We'll invest in innovation, product leadership, and bringing that supply in line with the market demand.

多余的现金，我们会返还给股东。

And excess cash, we will return it to shareholders.

好的。

Alright.

先记下这一点。

Well, keep that thought.

广告结束后，我们继续邀请美光公司首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉做深入访谈。

We're gonna have more with Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron after the break.

趁着桑杰·梅赫罗特拉在场，我们得聊聊内存芯片短缺的问题什么时候能解决，或者到底能不能解决。

While we've got Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron with us, we need to talk about when, if ever, we're going to resolve this memory chip shortage.

目前，美光正在美国大力投资半导体制造和研发。

Right now, Micron is investing heavily in semiconductor manufacturing and r and d in The United States.

他们计划在美国投入两千亿美元，这个数字刚刚提到过，同时将创造九万多个就业岗位。

They plan to spend 200,000,000,000, just heard that, across The United States creating more than 90,000 jobs in the process.

不过，要等到看到成果，还得好几年。

Although it's gonna take years before we see any output.

这可能是我国历史上规模最大的和平时期就业创造项目之一。

Maybe one of the largest peacetime job creators in history of our country.

那我们赶紧请回美光公司的董事长、总裁兼首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉，因为这已经成了整个经济的重大问题。

So let's get back in it with Sanjay Mehrotra, chairman, president, CEO of Micron, because this is becoming a huge issue for the entire economy.

桑杰，我们该怎么解决这个问题？

Sanjay, how can we solve this?

吉姆，我们之前聊过内存在人工智能时代的重要性，也谈过长期需求趋势。

So, Jim, we have talked about the value of memory in the AI era, and we have talked about the secular demand trends.

现在我们来聊聊供应方面的限制。

And now let's talk about supply constraints.

这个行业需要新建产能。

The industry needs greenfield capacity.

也就是说，要新建洁净室。

That means new construction of clean rooms.

这正是美光正在大力投资的领域。

That's where Micron is investing heavily in.

从破土动工到首批晶圆产出，这些无尘车间需要很长的时间。

And those clean rooms take long time from shovel in the ground to first wafers out.

我们很早就看到了这个方向的价值，特朗普总统和他的团队确实帮助我们加快了计划和投资步伐。

We saw the had the vision of investing way back when, and president Trump and his administration actually have helped us accelerate our plans, accelerate our investments.

我们目前的重点就是加大投资，并且加速推进这些项目。

We are very much focused on invest investing as well as accelerating the investments.

我们的爱达荷工厂预计明年年中产出首批晶圆，客户认证通过后，量产将在2028年左右逐步展开。

Our Idaho fab will have first wafers out in the middle of next year, and production after qualification by customers will start ramping up in 2028 time frame primarily.

第二座爱达荷工厂，也是特朗普政府规划的项目，同样会在2028年底前建成。

Second Idaho fab, you know, planned by Trump administration, also will come about by end of twenty eight time frame.

我们在纽约的项目今年早些时候已经破土动工，今年晚些时候将开始浇筑混凝土，后续的产能爬坡会参照爱达荷工厂的节奏。

We have in New York groundbreaking occurring earlier in the year, and where that will begin concrete pour later this year, and it will follow our Idaho fabs in terms of ramping supply.

我们也在全球范围内加大投资，只为尽快提升产能。

We are investing globally as well in in order to bring supply as fast as possible.

有一点很重要，就是现在整个行业需要的芯片产能，建设起来非常耗时。

So one aspect that's important to consider is that fab capacity, new capacity that is now required across the industry, it takes a long time to build.

所以才说供应紧张的局面会持续到2027年以后。

That's why we say tightness continues beyond '27.

但另一个关键是，存储技术本身极其复杂。

But the second fact is that the technology, memory technology is very complex.

这跟以前完全不一样了。

It's not like the old days.

对吧？

Right?

HBM制造起来特别难。

HBM is hard to make.

有人管这叫技术奇迹。

This is you know, some have called it a technical marvel.

也有人说是魔法和科学的结合。

Some have called it a combination of magic and science.

这可不是你爷爷那代的内存了。

This is not your grandfather's memory.

这是极其先进的内存，非常复杂，包含大量知识产权。

This is extremely advanced memory, complex stuff, lot of intellectual property.

美光公司目前拥有的专利已经接近六万五千项。

Micron has patents that are now approaching 65,000 patents.

HBM，也就是你刚才提到的高带宽内存，生产所需的晶圆数量远超普通内存，这也给供应链带来了巨大压力。

HBM, high bandwidth memory that you just talked about, it takes a lot more wafers to produce than the standard memory, and that's putting a lot of pressure on the supply as well.

好的，Sanjay女士。

Okay, miss Sanjay.

我们知道，我们都尊敬的台积电创始人张忠谋，不认为我国能以合理且理性的方式实现这一目标。

We we know that Morris Chang, a man we all respect, the founder of TSMC, does not trust our country to make it in a reasonable logical manner.

成本比在台湾高出百分之五十。

50% higher cost than in Taiwan.

你听好了。

Listen to this.

你这么做，只会花大钱却徒劳无功。

It'll be a very expensive exercise in futility doing what you're doing.

你对此有什么话说？

What do you have to say to that?

我想告诉你的是，美光多年来在全球范围内积累了丰富的经验，参与了世界上最先进的半导体制造。

What I will tell you is that Micron has tremendous experience operating across the globes over the years in some of the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing that is out there.

我们一直都在弗吉尼亚州马纳萨斯本地生产那些所谓的长生命周期存储产品，用于汽车、国防、医疗和航空航天领域。

We, of course, have been manufacturing right here in Manassas, Virginia products for long what is called long life cycle memory products that go into automotive, defense, medical, aerospace.

顺便说一句，特朗普政府时期，我们也在那里加大了投资。

By the way, the Trump administration, we are we have increased our investments there as well.

所以美光在美国有着扎实的运营经验。

So Micron has strong experience here in The US.

但问题是，人手够吗？

But on a dagger, I mean, there enough people?

你得大量招人才行。

You need to put hire a lot of people.

我看不到有足够符合你要求的合格人才。

I don't see the people with the qualifications that you need.

你打算怎么解决这个问题？

How are gonna change that?

美光在爱达荷州博伊西拥有全球最先进的研发晶圆厂，那里也是美光的发源地。

Micron has world's most advanced r and d fab in Boise, Idaho, which is where Micron started.

公司总部也设在那里。

That's where the headquarters are.

最前沿的内存技术研发都是从那里起步的。

That's where the most advanced R and D is developed from memory.

未来，我们不仅会在博伊西扩大生产，还会把制造业务扩展到纽约和弗吉尼亚州的马纳萨斯。

And now we are doing manufacturing, bringing it to Boise, Idaho, in the future to New York, and then Manassas, Virginia.

除了之前提到的两亿五千万美元投入特朗普政府的项目，美光还承诺投入三亿美元，用于培养半导体人才梯队，包括学徒计划、社区学院合作、大学课程开发，以及主动发掘和培训人才。

We in addition to the 250,000,000 into Trump accounts we talked about, I want to point out Micron has committed to invest $300,000,000 in developing the pipeline of talent, apprenticeships, junior colleges, curriculum for semiconductors in universities, but and reaching out to the talent, training the talent.

这一点非常重要。

This is very important.

这种对人才的投资至关重要。

And that talent investment in that that talent is essential.

我们正在全国范围内致力于培养人才。

We are focused across the country in developing the talent.

明白了。

Alright.

我们不妨从更根本、更哲学的角度来思考这个问题。

Let's think about this in a little more existential philosophical way.

数据中心推高了众多产品的价格。

The data centers are bidding up a lot of things.

我可以说，它们正在引发一波通货膨胀。

I could say that they're causing a wave of inflation.

我的手机价格涨得厉害。

My cell phone is going up dramatically.

我可以说这是Micron造成的，也可以说是因为数据中心把所有东西的价格都抬高了。

I could say that it's because of Micron, or I could say that the data centers are bidding everything up.

也许他们应该给人们提供一些补贴，好让手机价格别涨得太离谱。

Maybe they should be offering some sort of stipend surplus to people to make it so that our phones don't get too expensive.

那我们该怎么办呢？

What do we do?

东西的价格涨得太快了。

Things are going up too quickly in cost.

我要指出的是，数据中心、人工智能，以及美国在人工智能领域的领导地位，对我国的经济利益和国家安全都至关重要。

So I will point out that data centers and AI and US leadership in AI is, of course, critically important for our economic interest here in the country as well as national security.

数据中心在人工智能能力上的进步非常关键，它最终让手机用户能够享受到过去不可能实现、太难实现或者太昂贵的体验。

Advancement of AI in the data center capability is really critical, ultimately enabling the consumers, users of phone devices to have the kind of experiences that in the past either were not possible, were too difficult, or were too costly.

现在，人工智能正在各个领域创造新的机会。

Now AI is creating opportunities across the board.

其次，我要说的是，在汽车这类关键市场，我们的产品定价当然比数据中心产品低。

Second, I would tell you that for our critical markets like automotive, we, of course, sell at lower prices compared to the data center.

我还要补充一点，在智能手机领域，我们的产品价格也低于数据中心产品。

I'll also say that in smartphone, our products sell for less compared to the data center products.

所以，多元化当然很重要。

So, of course, diversification is important.

所以我之前跟您提到过，我们40%的业务主要集中在汽车、智能手机和电脑这些消费市场。

That's why I was pointing out to you earlier that 40% of our business is pretty much towards consumer markets such as automotive and smartphones and PCs.

明白了。

Okay.

因此，保持这种多元化对我们来说至关重要。

So maintaining this diversification is extremely important for us.

最后一个话题。

Last concept.

最后一个问题。

Last question.

你我之前聊过很久，关于韩国在这一领域占据主导地位的说法。

You and I have talked for a long time about the notion of Korea being dominant.

你们在研发和晶圆厂方面，有没有超过SK海力士？

Have you with your r and d, have you do it with your fabs, past SK Hynix?

你们比三星更强吗？

Are you better than Samsung?

就现在，跟我说实话。

Right here, tell me.

我可以明确告诉你，如今在DRAM和NAND技术上，美光绝对是技术领先者。

I'll tell you that today, Micron, when it comes to DRAM as well as NAND technology, we are a clear technology leader.

我们已经

We have

但过去并不总是这样，尤其是在

That's not always been the case under

前任CEO任内。

under previous CEOs.

过去几年里，我们在DRAM领域连续推出了四代领先技术。

That is so over the course of last few years, we have established four successive generations of technology leadership in DRAM.

如今，我们在NAND上也是技术领先者了，不仅在DRAM、HBM，还在NAND产品上全面领先。

Today, we are a technology leader in NAND as well, not just technology, product leadership as well across DRAM, across HBM, across NAND.

我们在财报电话会上刚宣布，我们的HBM4产品——这是目前全球最难制造的内存产品——在财报发布时已经出货了。

We just announced in our earnings call that our HBM4 product, again, the most complex product in the world in terms of memory to produce, Micron shipped at the time of our earnings call.

我们提到，到目前为止，出货金额已经超过十亿美元。

We said we have already shipped to date more than $1,000,000,000.

我可以告诉你，吉姆，我们在技术、产品上的优势，加上数据中心SSD和HBM这些产品的强劲势头，充分展现了美光当前的发展动力。

And I can tell you, Jim, our technology position, our product position, our momentum on products such as data center SSDs, as well as these HBM shows Micron momentum today.

我们的竞争力非常强，位置也很有利。

We are extremely competitive, well positioned.

在我们国家，就只有你们在做这件事。

And you're the only one who's doing this in our country.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Absolutely.

目前只有我们在投入研发和制造。

We are the only ones investing in r and d and manufacturing.

我们是内存和存储领域的领军者，也是美国唯一一家还在持续投入的公司。

We are the memory and storage leader, the only company here in The US investing.

正如我们之前提到的，我们在全美范围内投资了两千亿美元用于制造和研发，并创造了九万个就业岗位。

As we said earlier, $200,000,000,000 across America in manufacturing and r and d and creating 90,000 jobs.

太棒了。

Excellent.

感谢美光科技董事长、总裁兼首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉，股票代码MU。

I wanna thank Sanjay Mehrotra, chairman, president, CEO of Micron Technology, Symbol MU.

为我们的国家感到自豪吧。

Be proud of our country.

为你们所取得的成就感到自豪吧。

Be proud of what you guys have done.

广告后，《疯狂金钱》继续为您带来精彩内容。

Mad Money's back after the break.

接下来登场的这位，是华尔街反应最快的人，我们要借助大家的力量来考验他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

接下来来个快问快答吧。

Bring on the lightning round next.

方案已经公布了。

Plan is out.

快问快答就到此结束。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

Dight 正在赶来的路上。

Dight on the way.

来自堪萨斯的凯伦。

Karen in Kansas.

凯伦。

Karen.

你好。

Hi.

你好，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

嘿，凯伦。

Hey, Karen.

你最近怎么样？

How are doing?

哦，挺好的。

Oh, great.

不过堪萨斯现在真的特别热。

Except it's really hot in Kansas right now.

我还没

I didn't

知道呢，还有那个。

know and that.

超过100度了。

Over a 100.

温度都超过一百度了。

Over a 100 to the light temperature.

是的。

Yes.

真惊人。

Wow.

炙热难耐。

Sizz lean.

我本来想说的是。

What I wanted to yes.

我想跟你聊聊超洁净技术。

What I wanted to talk to you about is ultra clean technology.

我之前离开的时候，

It's kinda I left

城里就是这样。

town right.

全球最热的股票。

Hottest stocks in the world.

只要数据中心持续火热，这只股票就能继续赚钱，但价格确实不便宜。

And as long as the data center stays hot, that stock is gonna continue to make money, but it is expensive.

我会这么操作。

Here's what I would do.

先卖出四分之一，回笼一部分成本，剩下的再持有一段时间，等涨到再高15%。

I would take a quarter of it off, get some of that cost basis out, and then let the rest run for another 15%.

接下来我们连线加州的罗宾。

Now we're going to Robin in California.

罗宾。

Robin.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

嘿，罗宾。

Hey, Robin.

关于TE公司

About TE

连接业务方面，我觉得股价应该更高才对。

connectivity by I think the stock should be higher.

我不明白为什么市盈率这么低。

I don't understand why the multiple is so low.

它理应享有市场平均水平的估值。

It should be a market multiple.

我觉得这是一只非常出色的股票。

I think there's terrific stock.

我记得它刚成立的时候就一直表现得很出色。

I remember it was I remember when it was created, it was always terrific.

我想为信托基金买入这只股票。

I wanna buy that stock for the trust.

你得进去看看。

You gotta go in there.

我一直在想这件事。

Been thinking about it.

我一直在研究。

I've been moly.

我们去爱荷华州的杰克逊吧。

Let's go to Jackson in Iowa.

杰克逊。

Jackson.

嘿，吉姆，你最近怎么样？

Hey, how are you, Jim?

我挺好的，杰克逊。

I'm doing well, Jackson.

你呢？

How about you?

我状态绝佳。

I'm amazing.

我明天就满二十三了。

So I turned 23 tomorrow.

我还年轻。

I'm young.

我现在不打算卖。

I'm not looking to sell right now.

不过话说回来，你觉得沃伊耶尔科技这家公司怎么样？

With that being said, what do you think about Voyager Technology?

好吧。

Okay.

我跟你说这些，是因为你问我了，但我得提醒你，别急着买，这家公司亏得太多了。

I'm gonna tell you that only because you told me that can I encourage you to buy it because this company is losing so much money?

他们可能要花上一辈子才能赚到钱。

It may take a lifetime before they make money.

哦，对了，生日快乐。

Oh, and by way, the happy birthday.

我的意思是，咱们这期节目里能不能让我别发火一回？

I mean, let's have one moment in this show that I'm not angry.

生日快乐。

Happy birthday.

明白吗？

Alright?

我生气是因为刚度假回来。

I'm angry because I just got back from vacation.

让你知道一下原因。

Just so you understand that.

巴里，这不就是我们该做的吗？

Barry, isn't that isn't what we're supposed

对吧？

to do?

别生气了，行吗？

Please don't be angry.

希望你有个

Hope you have a

愉快的周末。

great weekend.

我是佛罗里达的巴里，我对巴里没生气。

I'm Barry in Florida, and I'm not mad at Barry.

我对巴里真没生气。

I'm not mad at Barry.

巴里，你有什么

Barry, what do you

啊？

have?

这可是

That's a

好事。

good thing.

好的。

Okay.

俱乐部的创始成员。

Founding member of the club.

我觉得这已经是第三次我打电话了。

I think it's the third time I called.

我打来是想聊聊我大概一年前根据你们的评论做的一个分析。

I'm calling about a spec that I made about a year ago pretty much on your comments.

当时我买了一半的仓位。

And I purchased about a half a position at the time.

到了六月，我有点坐不住了，就把一半卖了。

And around June, I got a little antsy and I sold off half of it.

现在我手里还剩四分之一的仓位。

So I have about a quarter of a position now.

今天股价表现不错，涨了大约7%。

The stock actually did quite well today up about 7%.

我想知道，以我现在持有的Cybotic SYM股票，你这时候会怎么操作？

I'm curious to know what you would do at this point in time with my Cybotic SYM.

Symbotic这家公司其实已经在赚钱了，我得告诉你。

Symbotic, I have to tell you, the company is making money.

我觉得这个投资逻辑非常靠谱。

I think it's a very good spec.

我再次强调这一点。

I reiterate that.

我并不反对Symbotic。

I am not against Symbotic.

你听我说。

Look.

现在市场上那么多亏钱的公司，别人都抢着买。

Symbotic there's so many losing money companies out there that people buy.

但Symbotic不是那种公司。

This one is not.

我觉得这个参数还行。

I think it's a decent spec.

太低了。

It's too low.

接下来我们连线威斯康星州的马克。

Now we're gonna go to Mark in Wisconsin.

马克。

Mark.

克拉默医生，谢谢您接我的电话。

Doctor Cramer, thank you for taking my call.

不客气。

Oh, it's my pleasure.

我有个

I got a

我有个太阳能和半导体的股票推荐给您。

I got a stock for you in solar and semiconductor.

我持有这只股票。

I own it.

它离得也太远了。

It's way off.

已经突破了前期高点。

It's past highs.

现在这个价位，我该不该加仓？

Should I be adding to my position at these prices?

股票代码是 E N P H，N-P-H-A-S-E。

The ticker e n p h n phase.

N-P-H-A-S-E？不是。

N phase, no.

走势太不稳定，太断断续续了。

It's too erratic, too episodic.

说实话，在我看来，这只股票是全世界最难持有的股票之一。

Frankly, there is as far as I'm concerned, this thing is one of the hardest stocks in the world to own.

我得说，就是这一只。

I'm gonna have to say it's on that one.

接下来我们连线伊利诺伊州的迈克尔。

Now we're gonna go to Michael in Illinois.

迈克尔。

Michael.

吉米，吉姆·鲍，谢谢。

Jimmy Jim Bowe thank you.

好嘞。

Yo yo.

这是第二次打电话进来。

Second time caller.

就是想说，能跟这位传奇人物对话，真是我的荣幸。

Just want say it was a privilege talking to the man, the myth, the legend.

迈克尔，你知道吗？

You know something, Michael?

这话也送给你，迈克尔。

It's right back at you, Michael.

同样送给你。

Right back at you.

太棒了，老兄。

Booyah, buddy.

还有凯尔。

And Kyle.

凯尔也是。

Kyle too.

太棒了。

Booyah.

太棒了。

Booyah.

所以我想问的是，你把雪佛龙、微软、卡特彼勒、GE维诺瓦全都塞进了一个二十年的投标里。

So my question is, you got Chevron, Microsoft, Caterpillar, GE Vernova, all in that little twenty year bid.

没错。

Right.

你对GE Vernova怎么看？

What do you think about GE Vernova?

在这些公司里，我最看好GE Vernova。

GE Vernova of those is my favorite.

资本信托在这家公司里持有很大仓位。

It's one that the Capital Trust has a very big position.

我相信斯科特的判断。

I believe in Scott's.

我觉得这情况非常出色，表现一直很稳健。

I think it is a terrific situation held up very well.

我仍然看好G。

I say still by G.

E。

E.

Vernova。

Vernova.

女士们先生们，这就是本次讨论的结论。

And that ladies and gentlemen is conclusion of the.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

现在是不是可以重新关注那些被人工智能冲击得惨不忍睹的股票了？

Is it finally safe to circle back to some of the stocks that I think has been crushed by AI displacement?

担忧确实存在。

Worries.

虽然确实有一些企业因人工智能的竞争而受损，但太多无辜的公司也被连带抛弃了。

But while there are real victims of competition from artificial intelligence out there, a ton of proverbial babies got thrown out with the bathwater.

比如Paychex。

Take Paychex.

它是美国第二大薪酬处理服务商。

That's America's second largest payroll processor.

它主要面向中小型企业，但也在向大企业拓展。

It's focused on small and medium sized business, but it's going large too.

这是它主要的外包人力资源管理业务。

The major outsourced human capital management division.

这只股票一年多前曾涨到每股161美元，今年四月跌到85美元左右，如今又回升到98美元。

Here's a stock that peaked at a $161 a little over a year ago, plunging to $85 and change this April, rebound to 98 as of today.

尽管Paychex一直保持着稳健的业绩，华尔街却似乎根本不关心。

While paychecks kept reporting solid numbers the whole time, Wall Street just didn't seem to care.

但自四月触底后，最近股价终于稳住了。

But after bottoming in April, the stocks found its footing of late.

上周Paychex公布财报时，业绩不错，全年展望也很强劲，这无疑帮了大忙。

Didn't hurt that when paychecks reported last week, they delivered a good quarter with a strong full year forecast.

那么，这只股票还能继续反弹吗？

So can this one keep rebounding?

我们来听听约翰·吉布森的深入分析。

Let's dig deeper with John Gibson.

他是Paychex的总裁兼首席执行官。

He's the president and CEO of Paychex.

吉布森先生，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Mister Gibson, welcome back to Mad Money.

吉姆，能回来和你对话真好。

Jim, it's great to be back with you.

谢谢你，约翰。

Thank you, John.

我想先明确一点。

One of the things I wanna get get done right off the top.

真让人惊讶，居然有人觉得你们会被人工智能取代，但在我看来，你们用的是一套极其复杂、难度很高，但你们已经掌握得炉火纯青的人工智能系统，根本没人能超越。

It is remarkable to me that people thought you should be displaced by AI when I think you're using a very complicated, difficult, but I think you've mastered it, AI powered intelligence engine that I think can't can't be beaten.

跟我们说说背后的原因吧。

Just tell us about whys.

是的。

Yeah.

好的，吉姆。

I will, Jim.

你完全说对了。

And you're absolutely right.

我觉得这些都被夸大了。

I think all this has been overplayed.

接下来，正如你所知，我们几十年来一直在投资数据和人工智能基础设施。

Now let's talk about, as you know, we've been investing in data and AI infrastructure for decades.

我总提醒大家，2022年的时候，我们在人力资源管理技术领域获得了最佳AI应用奖。

I always remind people in 2022, we won the best use of AI in human capital management technology in the industry.

那在2022年，谁在谈人工智能呢？

Now who was talking about AI in 2022?

所以现在，我们刚刚推出了WISE。

So fast forward, we just announced WISE.

WISE代表的是‘由专业经验强化的劳动力智能’。

WISE stands for Workforce Intelligence Strengthened by Expertise.

它是一个由人工智能驱动的智能引擎，正在为全公司所有专为人力资源管理设计的解决方案提供支持。

And what it is, is the AI powered intelligence engine now that's empowering all of our built for purpose HCM solutions across the enterprise.

它基于我们自主研发的、正在申请专利的人工智能知识网络。

It leverages a patent pending AI knowledge mesh network, which we designed and developed.

这个引擎凝聚了我们五十多年积累的专业经验。

It has over five decades of our expertise in it.

它整合了超过两万六千亿个数据元素，目前已驱动了公司内六百多项人工智能功能和智能代理。

It has more than 26,000,000,000,000 data elements, And it's already powering over 600 AI features and AI agents across our entire company.

它把我们五十年来与客户互动积累的经验，以及对合规和税务的深刻理解，全都转化成了可操作的智能信息。

And what it really does is it's turning all of the fifty years of expertise and interactions we have with our clients and knowledge we have about compliance and taxes.

这些智能信息让我们的员工能更好地服务客户，同时也支持我们每天都在新增的大量数字员工代理。

It's turning that into a data of actionable intelligence for our employees to use to support our clients, and a growing number of digital workforce agents that we're deploying each and every day.

我相信，整个行业里，没有任何一家公司能像我们这样，为中小企业提供如此高水平的人工智能自主执行能力。

I really believe no one else in the industry is delivering this level of AI powered autonomous execution for small businesses than paychecks.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，约翰，

So John,

你倒是说说看，毕竟你可是亲身在一线做这件事的人。

tell tell tell me because you're you're actually you're you're boots on the ground on this.

全国上下确实有人担心会丢掉工作。

There is fear, of course, around the country of job loss.

你比谁都更了解小企业。

You know small business better than anyone.

你做的那个小企业指数，全国上下都在用。

You have your own small business index that everybody uses in this country.

现在是AI创造的岗位多，还是摧毁的岗位多？

Are more jobs being created by AI than are being destroyed by AI?

吉姆，我再说一遍，历史上每一次技术革命，都是让工作转型，而不是让工作消失。

Jim, I will continue to tell you that all technology revolutions that we've had have evolved jobs, they've not destroyed them.

我觉得，未来职场将迎来一场前所未有的创意和创新浪潮。

And I think that we're going to see a boom of creativity and innovation going on in the workforce.

你提到了那个指数。

You mentioned the index.

咱们来看看事实，别光说夸张的话。

Let's let's check-in with some facts, not hyperbole.

明白吗？

Okay?

我们今天早上刚发布了最新的指数。

So we just released our index this morning.

连续第四个月，我们旗下50人以下的客户群体，就业岗位增长速度都在提升。

For the fourth consecutive month, we've seen improvement in the pace of job growth amongst our clients under 50.

这是自2020年11月以来，首次出现连续四个月的增长。

That's the first four month consecutive increase we've seen since November 2020.

不仅如此，我们50人以上的客户群体，增长势头更强。

But in addition to that, we look at our 50 and above clients, and they're even having stronger growth.

所以我看到的不是裁员或经济衰退的迹象，反而是小企业更具韧性，增长也在加速。

So I see not only no signs of layoffs, no signs of recession, I actually see more resilience and more acceleration in small business growth.

吉姆，这份报告里有意思的是，这种增长是全面的，各个地区、各个行业都在上升。

And what was interesting, Jim, in this report, it was broad based, it was every region, it was every industry.

说实话，看到小企业复苏、展现出韧性，再结合我们刚结束的财年——截至5月31日——所积累的势头，派拓现在比以往任何时候都更有能力抓住人工智能时代在人力资源管理领域的新机遇。

So quite frankly, I look at the setup and I say, with the rebounding small business, the resiliency of small business, you look at the momentum we had coming out of our last fiscal year that just ended May 31, Paychex has never been better positioned to take take advantage of this new AI era in human capital management.

明白了。

Okay.

约翰，当我用ChatGPT或者Claude时，只要输入‘我想写一份创业计划书’，它就会告诉你怎么搞营销、怎么 setup、大概要花多少钱，甚至会分析潜在风险。

So, John, when I look at ChatGPT, when I go into Claude, if you put in that you want a business plan to start a new company, it tells you how to do social, how to set it up, how much money it'll cost, even what risk it'll have.

你有没有发现，有些客户只有三四个甚至五个人，就是靠着从Claude那里拿到的商业计划书起步的？

Are you seeing people seeing clients with three, four, five people that started like that with a business plan that they got from Claude?

吉姆，我觉得所有企业最初都源于一个愿意冒险、有想法的创业者。

Well, Jim, I think all businesses start with a owner who is an entrepreneur who's willing to take risk and has an idea.

现在他们需要的是实现这个想法的工具和支持。

Now they need the tools and support to be able to execute on that idea.

我想你会发现，这些工具会帮你整理出一份很实用的行动清单。

And what I think you'll find is a lot of these tools are going to create a nice little checklist for you to do.

我们相信，真正的价值在于把这项技术跟我们的专业经验结合起来，帮您真正把事情办成。

What we believe is the real power of this is coupling this with our expertise, where we can actually then assist you to get it done.

现在我们正在开发自主代理系统，直接帮您完成这些流程，比如协助您完成公司注册手续。

And now we're building autonomous agents to actually do it for you so we can actually help file to get your business started.

我举个例子给您听。

Let me give you an example.

7月7日，我们将推出一批新功能，把人工智能应用到我们的HR合规产品Six Fifty里。

On July 7, we're going to launch a set of new releases of leveraging AI in our HR compliance product called six fifty.

Six Fifty能追踪全美每个州、每个县、每个城市的每一项法规。

Now six fifty tracks every law in every state, every county, every city.

它里面整合了我们所有的合规数据。

It has all of our compliance data in it.

它能帮助企业生成开办公司、合法雇佣员工所必需的所有文件。

It helps businesses create documentation that they need to create a business and start a business and hire people legally and compliantly.

更厉害的是，吉姆，我们内部的HR团队已经在用这个系统来提供专业建议了。

What's even more amazing about this, Jim, we've been using this internally with our HR people that are giving the advice.

我们现在已将它整合到所有平台中。

We've now embedded it into all of our platforms.

我们还开始以独立服务的形式，向任何希望使用我们合规数据库来保障员工合规的小型企业与中型企业提供这项服务。

And we are now starting to offer it on a standalone basis to any small and medium sized business that wants to use our compliance wise database to be able to help them support their compliance with employees.

明天将是全国范围内新规集中实施的重要日子。

And so, you know, tomorrow is a big day of new regulations across the country.

这一天，大多数州都会正式施行新的劳动法规。

It's a day that most states execute new employment laws.

每个市镇也都如此。

Every municipality is doing that.

我们会在7月1日设立一个法规生效日，7月4日是独立日。

We're gonna have a regulation day on the first, Independence Day on the fourth.

而在7月7日，借助我们的Six Fifty产品，我们将帮助企业在合规的人力资源管理中获得更大的发展空间。

And on July 7, with our six fifty product, we're gonna give businesses the freedom to succeed with compliant HR.

我认为，当法规发生变化时，小企业和中型企业确实需要这样的支持。

Well, I think, small, medium sized businesses are gonna need that help with when the regulations changed.

让大多数企业倒闭的，不是利率。

The thing that puts most businesses out of business isn't interest rates.

也不是需求。

It isn't demand.

而是没能遵守法规。

It's not complying with the law.

这是帕耶克公司董事长兼首席执行官约翰·吉布森。

That is John Gibson, president and CEO of Paychex.

谢谢您，约翰。

Thank you, John.

很高兴见到您。

Great to see you.

谢谢您，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

祝您假期愉快。

I like to Have a great holiday.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你也是。

You too.

我一直说，总有一个更大的市场在等着你。

I like to say there's always a more market somewhere.

我向你保证，就在这档《疯狂金钱》节目里，我会为你找到那个机会。

Promise I'll find just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的观点仅代表他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。

Expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

您不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他视为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证这些信息的完整性和准确性，不应以此为依据做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《Mad Money》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/MadMoneyDisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/ Mad money disclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与Boardroom携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育未来的新理念与战略规划。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports plan.