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经济的一个关键节点。
A key moment for the economy.
五月的就业数据会如何影响首次决策？
How might the May jobs data influence the first decision?
就业数据与分析。
Employment numbers and analysis.
《Squawk Box》明天早上8点30分东部时间播出，CNBC Plus同步直播。
Squawk Box, tomorrow 08:30AM eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.
我的目标是
My mission
简单地说，就是帮你赚钱。
is simple, to make you money.
我的使命是让所有投资者都能站在同一起跑线上。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市在某个地方，我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
现在，钱就要来了。
Man money starts now.
嗨，我是克莱默。
Hey, I'm Cramer.
欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Welcome to Mad Money.
欢迎来到克莱默的节目。
Welcome to Cramer.
我会跟我的朋友们聊聊。
I'll talk my friends.
我只是想赚点钱。
I'm just trying to make some money.
我的工作不只是娱乐，还要给大家讲清楚。
My job is not just to entertain, but to do some explaining.
请拨打180743给我打电话，或者在推特上关注我，账号是Jim Cramer。
So call me at 180743 or tweet me at Jim Cramer.
目前为止，情况还不错。
So far, so good.
关于市场如何应对盈利不及预期和新股发行，我就说这么多。
That's all I can say about how the market's taking earnings disappointments and new stock offerings.
这要归功于从重重阻力到牛市狂飙的转变。
Credits from huge obstacles to a raging bull.
昨天，Alpha公司大规模增发股票，为人工智能布局筹集资金。
Yesterday, Alpha did a gigantic equity offering to fund its AI build out.
与此同时，我们又得知博通和今晚的嘉宾CrowdStrike两家公司都传出了严重的盈利不及预期消息。
At the same time, then we learned about two very high profile alleged earnings disappointments from Broadcom and tonight's guest, CrowdStrike.
但市场对这些利空消息根本没放在心上。
But the market shook off those disappointments.
道指飙升了875点，标普500涨了0.41%，而科技股主导的纳斯达克却微跌了0.9%。
The Dow only surging 875 points, S and P jumping point 41%, and the tech laid Nasdaq dipping point on 9%.
但这可是对原本看似惨淡的一天的惊人逆转。
But it was a dramatic turnaround for what looked to be a miserable session.
痛苦之屋。
The house of pain.
愉悦之屋。
House of pleasure.
作为一个对即将涌入市场的新增股票供应非常担忧的人，偏偏赶上了不太理想的财报季。
As someone who counts himself very concerned about the new supply of stock that's about to hit the market, Right as we get not so hot earnings.
今天的反弹真是令人惊喜。
Well, today's rally is truly a welcome surprise.
财报不及预期加上大量新股抛售，通常预示着接下来的日子不会好过。
Earnings with disappointments and big chunks of equity flying around usually mean tough times are ahead.
市场上通常没有足够的资金来消化这些情况——比如 Alphabet 这笔大交易，再加上 SpaceX 那场规模惊人的 IPO，还有 Anthropic 业绩惨淡或根本没业绩，这类事情谁说得准呢？
There typically isn't enough money in the market to take care of business when business includes the aforementioned Alphabet deal plus the gigantic SpaceX IPO with its worst and lack of earnings or Anthropic, comes under the category of who knows?
但市场对此全然无视。
Yet the market shrugged it all off.
而这一切发生的时候，伊朗战争依然没有解决，以色列和黎巴嫩那帮不知谁在管事的人之间，也只有一纸脆弱的停火协议。
Even though this is coming at a time when there's still no resolution to the war in Iran and only a paper thin ceasefire between Israel and whoever the heck is supposed to be running Lebanon.
我觉得这真挺让人惊讶的。
I find that pretty amazing.
我不清楚你怎么想，尤其是现在石油公司刚放出风声，说库存已经见底，汽油价格随时可能大幅上涨。
I don't know about you, especially when you consider the oil companies are just now signaling there's no more inventory to cushion a hefty rise in the price of gasoline.
那到底是什么推动了今天的上涨呢？
So then what drove today's rally?
这里头可能有几方面原因。
Well, there are a couple things that could be at work here.
最明显的一点是，这些 disappointing 的财报可能没我们想的那么糟。
Most obvious is that the disappointing earnings may not be as crushing as we think.
这也不是 Brokem——顺便说，这可是个巨头公司——第一次提前给出保守预期，结果下个季度却大幅超预期了。
This is not the first time that Brokem, which is by the way is a gigantic company, has offered a measured forecast only to crush the numbers next quarter.
在本季度开始前，股价早就一路飙升了。
The stock had gone parabolic into the quarter.
就像我们这周在卖给 CBC 投资俱乐部成员股票时说的，股价出现这种陡峭拉升，从来都不是好兆头。
And as we told CBC Investing Club members when we sold some stock ahead of this quarter this week, A parabola is never a good sign.
另外，今晚我们和CrowdStrike的首席执行官乔治·库尔茨对话时，应该能更清楚地了解这家网络安全公司的真实状况。
Plus, when we speak with George Kurtz, the CEO of CrowdStrike tonight, I think we're gonna get a much better sense of how well the cybersecurity company's doing.
至于业绩或预测不及预期的说法，可能根本站不住脚。
And the notion of earnings or a forecast disappointment, it may be misplaced.
首先，所谓的不及预期其实也没那么糟。
So, one, the disappointments really weren't all that disappointing.
接下来我们聊聊第二点——交易热潮。
And now let's talk two, the deluge of deals.
承销流程中可能正发生一些我们很少见到的变化。
Something may be going on with the underwriting process that we haven't seen very often.
刚刚 Alphabet 的二次发行由高盛主承，表现极其出色，根本没多少人抛售，需求远超预期。
We just had a phenomenally successful alphabet secondary price, well, by Goldman Sachs to the point that it looked like we had very few flippers and a lot more demand than we expected.
这是一次巨大的成功，需求异常旺盛。
It was an outstanding success, just a huge amount of demand.
再看这个今天刚启动交易的项目。
Then look at this continuum, which just started trading today.
需求远远超出了预期。
There was so much more demand.
这家公司根本赚不到钱，可还是有人这么抢着买。
This is a back this is a company that doesn't make any money at all.
需求之大，谁都没料到。
There was so much demand than anyone expected.
承销商不得不两次大幅增加发行规模。
The underwriters had to upsize the deal dramatically twice.
今天早些时候股价涨了不少，虽然收盘前有所回落。
The stock was a big earlier today, although pulled back at close.
但最终还是收涨了，说明大多数买家都选择持有，而不是立刻抛售。
Still, finished the session in the black, meaning most of the buyers held on to their shares rather than flipping them.
这可真不是什么奇迹。
That's nothing true of miraculous.
我本来以为会是一场混乱的发行，股价涨几块钱就掉头向下，拖累整个市场。
I was prepared to see a sloppy deal that would go up a couple dollars then roll over, bringing the whole market down with it.
根本没发生。
Didn't happen.
这下可把一大担子担忧给卸掉了。
That is a huge load of worry taken off the table.
这意味着我们接下来的几场IPO，可能比预期的还要受欢迎，至少比我原先想的要好。
It suggests that the next couple IPOs ahead of us may be better received than we think, certainly than I thought.
对SpaceX来说，这是个好消息，这两项业务都在计划之中，前景非常可观。
The great news for SpaceX, that's terrific free and throbbing, both of which are on the docket.
说实话，这些公司确实需要外界的支持。
And let's be honest, these companies need the help.
我们知道SpaceX正在大量亏钱，所以大家总担心，哪怕有马斯克坐镇，买家也可能直接撤退。
We know SpaceX is losing a ton of money, and therefore, there's always a fear that buyers will just walk away, even if it is with Elon Musk.
如今，人们对AI的怀疑态度已经到了极其负面的地步。
Plus, the level of skepticism around AI has become downright toxic these days.
我老听人说，除了做芯片的英伟达，其他公司根本拿不到像样的回报。
I keep hearing that nobody's getting a real return on all that spending except for NVIDIA, which makes the chips.
但奈飞的股价现在充满了说不清道不明的劲头——我当年在高盛学到的一个术语叫‘魔力’，可它现在根本没这东西。
Yet the stock of NVIDIA has a lot of don't know what's come the technical term I learned when I was at Goldman Sachs, mojo doesn't have it.
这股票简直在跟股东们玩滑梯和爬梯的游戏。
The darn thing has been playing a game of chutes and ladders with its shareholders.
情况还在好转。
It gets better.
今天早上，人们对私募信贷的担忧又卷土重来。
This morning, the worries over private credit started all over again.
还记得以前大家怎么都说这玩意儿有多糟吗？当时还传着个人投资者因为不了解这些基金的风险而要求赎回的事。
Remember when all the intelligence had told how bad that was gonna be with the talk of redemptions by individuals who didn't know the risks of these funds?
黑石这家巨型私募巨头，在例行开放日限制了其旗舰私募信贷基金的赎回。
Blackstone, a gigantic private equity shop, limited redemptions of a flagship private credit fund during its regularly scheduled opening.
这种消息搁以前，肯定吓得市场人心惶惶，股价直线下跌，可没多久前还经常这样呢。
Normally, kind of news, oh, boy, would cause a lot of fear and send the entire market plummeting as it regularly did not that long ago.
可这次，市场偏偏选择视而不见。
Instead, the market just chose to overlook it.
就连看空的人也对这说法心存疑虑，黑石股价今天上涨了7.5%。
And in a sign that even the bears are wary of this yarn, Blackstone's stock jumped 7.5% today.
它是标普500指数中表现最好的股票。
It was the best performer in the entire S and P 500.
两个月前，它很可能才是标普500里表现最差的那一个。
Two months ago, it probably would have been the worst performer in the S and P 500.
那些唱衰的人早就该拿这个消息大做文章了。
The doomongers would have just taken this one to town.
KKR和Ares这两家私募股权公司也遭遇了赎回压力，但股价同样强劲反弹。
KKR and Ares management, two more private equity firms have been afflicted by redemptions also rallied nicely.
事实上，它们也跻身标普500指数十大表现最佳股票之列。
In fact, they're among the top 10 performers in the whole S and P 500 too.
不过我可不敢太早下结论。
Now I don't wanna get ahead of myself.
一方面，今天股市的上涨并不是由科技股带动的，而是全面开花。
For one thing, tech didn't lead today's market, but it got broad.
在Resbit这边，我们看到数据中心股一路狂飙，你猜怎么着？
And at Resbit, what we saw of the endless data center stocks running, guess what?
今天有不少非数据中心的股票也表现不错。
We saw a host of non data center stocks do well today.
我来聊聊几个让人欣慰的信号。
Let me let me go over a couple of welcome signposts.
首先，银行股涨了。
First, the banks went up.
是的。
Yep.
天啊，银行股终于涨了。
Oh, glory be the banks went up.
金融板块今年 arguably 最重要，但之前一路垫底，几乎是最差的板块。
The financials are arguably the most important sector of of the year, and if you check throughout there, and they've been the worst performers of the year.
高盛和摩根士丹利在云服务商的股票竞赛中大获全胜，拿下了最多的交易和荣誉，但它们之前一直孤军奋战。
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are both winning big in the hyperscaler stock derby running away with the honors and deals, but they have been in a club of their own.
今天我看到一些实实在在的银行，比如摩根大通、PNC、花旗，还有其他几家大银行。
Today, saw something like I I saw real life and real banks like JPMorgan, PNC, Citigroup, a bunch of the other large banks.
这说明经济可能比我们想象的要健康。
It's sign that the economy may be healthier than we think.
现在马上就要公布月度就业数据了，也许大家都在押注明天早上的就业报告会很乐观——招聘强劲，通胀低迷。
Now we're on the eve of the monthly employment numbers, so perhaps people are betting on a bullish labor report tomorrow morning, meaning decent hiring, low no inflation.
不管怎样，那些一度被看衰的银行展现出了真正的韧性，这真是个好消息。
Either way, the left for dead banks showed some real resilience, and it was a welcome sign.
过去几个月，医疗板块几乎没人碰，除了克雷默、法比安和刘莉。
Health care have been a total no fly zone for the last few months, other than Cramer, Fabian, Liuli.
这次我们看到不少制药公司和健康保险公司集体上涨，说明市场情绪正在从科技股转移开来。
Now this time we saw a host of drug companies and health insurers rally, something that shows there's a pulse away from tech.
另外，这个市场还出现了一个亮眼的表现，就是我们刚提到的货运公司——联邦快递货运，这是我们本周早些时候节目里介绍过的Alpha股。
Oh, and this market saw a standout performance in a trucking company we just featured, FedEx Freight, an Alpha we had on the show earlier this week.
一个不健康的市场，不会由一家货运公司来引领。
An unhealthy market is not led by a trucking company.
就像银行一样，运输板块也是很好的领涨板块。
Just like the banks, the transports make for great leaders.
不过我可不是个理想主义者。
I'm not a dreamer though.
我知道，如果那些Alpha级的交易表现不佳，大型机构就不太可能去投资亏损的SpaceX，光靠散户是撑不起史上最大规模的IPO的。
I know that if the Alpha deal are going poorly, you could expect the big institutions will be less inclined to buy the money losing SpaceX, and you can't pull off the biggest IPO in history with just the little guy.
你也得有大资金进场才行。
You need the big money too.
没错，我们也不确定超大规模云服务商的资金需求，但如果Anthropic真像传闻中那样快速增长，那这些担忧可能也站不住脚。
And yes, we're unsure of the capital needs of the hyperscalers, but if Anthropics growing as rapidly as we hear, maybe those words are misplaced too.
好了。
Alright.
说到这儿吧。
Enough.
我刚才跟你们说了太多让人头疼的事了。
I I throw a lot of pain glass at you.
我只能说，今天凌晨四点的时候，我们觉得今天可能会成为今年最糟糕的一天。
All I can say is that at 4AM this morning, we deemed we seem to be on track for one of the worst days of the year.
但到了下午四点，情况完全反转了。
But at 4PM this afternoon All aboard.
我们离开的时候还在想，牛市怎么能在市场看空、散户情绪低迷、还有阿尔法公司突然大规模增发股票的情况下，依然如此强势地碾压了空头。
We left here thinking, how did the bull run over the Matador in a tremendous display of power despite bull con, despite crowd strength, and despite a surprise gigantic equity offering from Alphabet that did so well.
阿尔法公司在今年第一季度回购了四百五十亿美元的股票。
Alphabet bought back $45,000,000,000 worth of stock in the first quarter of this year.
紧接着又追加了一百五十亿美元。
It snapped up another 15,000,000,000.
去年是四百五十亿，
So it's last year, 45.
今年是这一百五十亿，
This year, 15.
现在它的回购规模又回到了差不多的水平。
Now it is selling similar volumes.
你能相信吗？
Can you believe that?
全卖了。
Sold it.
他们去年买的所有股票。
All the stock they bought last year.
天啊。
Wow.
说到底就是这么回事。
Here's the bottom line.
形容现在的市场，我只能用‘胃口’这个词。
The word I have to use to describe this market is appetite.
眼下，在一些超大规模发行之前，市场胃口极大。
Right now, ahead of some gigantic underwritings, this market has a huge appetite.
哪怕面对一只熊，拿着超大剂量的GLP注射针，它还是饿得想吃更多。
One that could shrug off a bear with a gigantic GLP dash one hypodermic needle and still be hungry for more.
我们连线一下威斯康星州的吉姆。
Let's go to Jim in Wisconsin.
吉姆。
Jim.
嗨，吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
我特别喜欢你的节目，还有你的书《如何在任何市场中赚钱》。
Love your show, and I love your book, how to make money in any market.
太棒了。
Fabulous.
说来有趣，我今天刚和一位首席执行官见面，他读过这本书，说他终于明白市盈率是怎么回事了。
What a gen you are actually was was with a CEO today who read it and said, I finally understand what a price earnings multiple is.
有什么我可以帮你的吗？
How can I help you?
你让这些复杂的东西变得特别容易懂。
It makes you make it understandable.
我今天的问题是关于优步科技的。
My my question today is on Uber Technologies.
我去年一月以大约63美元买入，十二月以83美元卖出了。
I bought it back in January of last year for about $63, Sold in December for 83.
从今年二月开始，我就一直在关注它。
Now I've been watching it since February of this year.
这段时间它的股价一直在72到77之间来回波动，没什么大动静。
It's been ping ponging in a small range of about 72 to 77 with not much movement.
我对这个竞争格局很了解。
And I know this competition.
你对它未来一两年的合理增长和规模扩张怎么看？
What's your read on this reasonable growth and scale in the next year or two?
你个人觉得怎么样？
What do you what do you feel?
我觉得这得看一两年的时间。
I think that it's year or two.
你想买这只股票，然后安心持有。
You wanna buy this stock and settle down.
我喜欢那种大幅下跌但基本面依然强劲的股票。
I like a stock that's come down heavily that is still doing well.
我觉得你很有判断力。
I think you got a horse sense.
听好了，这个市场对这些新涌出的供给依然有巨大的需求。
Listen, this market still got a huge appetite for all this new supply getting thrown at it.
所以今天这波上涨，我当它是意外之喜。
So I'll take today's rally as a welcome surprise.
伙计，今晚有个情况，CrowdStrike今天股价下跌了，可它的营收和利润都超预期了。
My man, buddy, tonight, CrowdStrike sold off today despite a top and bottom line beat.
那华尔街是不是看错什么了？
So is Wall Street getting something wrong here?
我直接去找他们的CEO乔治·库尔茨，问个明白。
I'm going straight to the source CEO George Kurtz to find out.
今天，霍尼韦尔分拆出来的Continuum公司股票开始交易了。
Then shares of a Honeywell spinoff Continuum started trading today.
那你有没有考虑入手这家量子领域的公司呢？
So should you be looking to start a position in this quantum play?
我来跟你说说我的看法。
I'm sharing where I come down.
蒂姆肯看起来像是个老牌工业股，但随着美国制造业回流，它正迈入一个新时代。
And Timken might seem like an old school industrial, but it's entering a new age amid the reshoring effort in The US.
我正在从公司高层那里深入了解这家公司。
I'm learning more about this company from its top brass.
继续关注克拉默的节目。
So stay with Cramer.
别错过《疯狂金钱》的任何一秒钟。
Don't miss a second of mad money.
在X平台关注吉姆·克拉默。
Follow at Jim Cramer on x.
有问题吗？
Have a question?
给克雷默发推文吧。
Tweet Cramer.
加标签 #MadMentions。
Hashtag mad mentions.
给 Jim 发邮件到 madmoney@CNBC.com，或者拨打 180743 找我们。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
漏掉了什么吗？
Missed something?
去 madmoney.cnbc.com 看看。
Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
对经济来说是个关键时刻。
A key moment for the economy.
五月的就业数据会如何影响美联储的首次决策？
How might the May jobs data influence the first Worschfed decision?
就业数据和分析。
Employment numbers and analysis.
明天早上八点半，Squawk Box将在CNBC Plus平台直播。
Squawk Box tomorrow 08:30AM eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.
昨晚，CrowdStrike公布了我觉得非常出色的季度业绩，但今天股价却大跌，主要是因为这家网络安全公司的业绩没有像我们过去习惯的那样大幅超出预期。
Last night, CrowdStrike reported what I thought was an excellent quarter, but the stock got hammered today, mainly because the cybersecurity company didn't beat the estimates by as much as we've all become accustomed to.
他们的前景指引也很强劲，甚至还宣布了1拆4的股票分割方案——理论上这没什么影响，但实际中往往能吸引更多个人投资者。
The guidance was strong too, and they even announced a four for one stock split, which shouldn't matter in theory, but in practice tends to attract more individual investors.
我认为这
And I think this is
是
a
一个买入机会。
buying opportunity.
但别光听我说。
But don't take it from me.
今天早些时候，我有机会跟CrowdStrike的创始人兼首席执行官乔治·库尔茨聊了聊。
Earlier today, had the chance to speak with George Kurtz, the founder and CEO of CrowdStrike.
你听听这段对话。
Take a look.
乔治，欢迎再次做客《赚钱之道》。
George, welcome back to Made Money.
吉姆，很高兴来到这里。
Jim, great to be here.
乔治，我得说，自从你们公司上市以来，我一直关注着你们。你们本季度创下了新的年度经常性收入纪录，收入增速还在加快，现金流也强得没话说，自由现金流表现优异，新签的ARR也相当亮眼，可市场居然觉得这成绩不够好。
You know, George, I gotta tell you, I followed your company since you came public, and I was saw you had record new annual recurring revenue, yet accelerating revenue growth, yet record cash flow, you had free cash flow that was terrific, yet new new ARR that was great, but somehow it was regarded as disappointing.
所以我相信，你们自己可能也没想到，这个季度会被看作是令人失望的。
So I have to believe that at some level, you might have been surprised that this quarter was disappointing.
吉姆，我的看法是，我们拥有最好的产品，而且在AI日益普及、安全需求无处不在的今天，我们始终在用心服务客户。
Well, Jim, the way I look at it is we have the best products and we're taking care of our customers in an era where AI is obviously going to be pervasive and you're to need security.
所以我觉得，我们这个季度的表现简直太棒了。
So I thought we posted a fantastic quarter.
刚才已经聊了一些数据。
Obviously, went through some of the stats.
我还想提一下，我们的40规则数值达到了59。
The other stat that I'll point out to you is our rule of 40 was 59.
在我们这样的规模下，还能保持这么高的增长和现金流，简直不可思议。
So when you think about the growth and the cash flow generation, it's insane at our scale.
我们对这个季度的表现非常自豪，也对AI带来的未来趋势充满期待。
So we're very proud of the quarter and we're excited about the future and the tailwinds that we're seeing from AI.
不过我得打断一下，有件事我想说。
But let me let me pause it something.
我们最近发现了一个很糟糕的现象，好像大家普遍觉得事情已经完全失控了。
We've had this terrible discovery basically, this mythos where it looks like the things are way out of control.
我以为这则新闻一出来，你们的业务会迎来一波大增长。
And I figured that you would have a huge amount of business when this news broke.
但看起来，这并没有转化成太多实际的业务。
But it doesn't seem like maybe it it turned into a lot of business.
我是不是想错了？
Was I wrong?
吉姆，你得看看日历。
Well, Jim, you have to look at the calendar.
你提到的Meetos是在四月中旬出的事，而我们的财季是在四月底结束，对吧？
You're talking about Meetos breaking in the middle of April, our quarter ends at the end of April, right?
我们卖的是企业软件，不是直接发货的硬件。
So we're selling enterprise software, not necessarily shipping boxes.
这些产品需要时间才能真正送到客户手上。
So these things take time to get into customers hands.
得走完整个销售流程才行。
You got to go through a sales cycle.
但我想要强调的是，你得看下个季度的指引。
But what I want to point out is you have to look at the guidance of the next quarter.
我们把全年指引都上调了，净新增ARR提升了超过五千万美元，增幅超过520个基点，这可是个巨大的提升。
We raised the full year guidance across the entire year, our net new ARR guidance by over 50,000,000, over five twenty basis points, which is an incredible raise.
我们有这个信心，是因为看到了眼前的机会，也清楚客户真正需要的是CrowdStrike和我们的AIDR技术——也就是AI检测与响应，能识别出恶意AI代理，加以防护，帮助企业安全地加速AI落地。
So we have the confidence to do that because we see the opportunity that's in front of us and we see what customers are looking for, which is CrowdStrike, which is our AIDR technology, AI detection and response to be able to identify rogue AI agents and be able to protect those and allow people to actually accelerate their AI adoption in an enterprise.
我的意思是，会不会有人担心，你们没上调近期的ARR？
Well, I mean, is it possible that people are concerned that you did not raise your near term ARR?
你们报出的数字是55.1亿美元，比预期的55.03亿只高了一点，大家可能觉得，春季的乐观预期有点过头了。
You came in with 5,510,000,000 versus 5,503,000,000, and people thought that maybe the spring rally wasn't justified.
我还是要强调全年的情况，吉姆，520个基点的上调可不是小数目，我们看到这种增长会贯穿整个财年。
Well, would point you to the whole year, Jim, five twenty basis points is a big move and we see this taking place across the entirety of the year.
对于这次上调，我们非常有信心。
So we feel really good about the raise.
至于销售线索，我们更是充满期待。
I think we feel fantastic about the pipeline.
举个例子，仅在第二季度，我们的AIDR技术就进入了超过5000万美元的销售线索池。
As an example, our AIDR technology, we're entering the pipeline with over 50,000,000 in Q2 alone.
光是这一项产品，我们就实现了环比250%的增长。
We saw 250% quarter over quarter growth just in that product alone.
我从客户那里了解到，他们希望部署更多AI，而只要你需要更多AI、想更广泛地使用AI，就必然需要安全防护。
And what I know from talking to customers is they want to roll out more AI and if you need more AI, you want to consume more AI, you're going to need security.
所以，我觉得第一季度表现非常出色，我们对未来的前景和提供的指引充满信心。
So, yeah, I thought it was a great Q1 and we're excited about the future and the guidance that we provide.
没错。
Right.
我完全同意。
Well, I couldn't agree more.
所以我跟我们投资俱乐部的成员说，别轻信你看到的那些报道。
It's why I told our people who belong to the investing club don't believe what you read.
这真是一个出色的季度。
This is an amazing quarter.
我想问问上周Anthropic的那个项目。
I wanna ask about project last week from Anthropic.
我从接触过的人那里了解到，尽管Anthropic一度认为他们能自己搞定，但你们实际上已经主导了这场网络安全应对工作。
What I understand from the people I talked to, you're pretty much leading the cybersecurity efforts to try to figure out what to do here despite the fact that Anthropic thought at one point that they could handle it themselves.
我觉得保险公司并不希望Anthropic自己处理这件事，他们更希望你们来接手，因为你们真的知道怎么阻止它。
I don't think that insurance companies wanted Anthropic to handle it themselves, and I think they wanted you to do it because I think you actually know how to stop it.
吉姆，你要明白，安全是一个生态系统，要想成功，必须打造一个能帮助客户和合作伙伴的生态体系。
Jim, what's important to realize that security is an ecosystem, and to be successful, you need to have an ecosystem that's going to help customers and help partners.
你看Anthropic推出的东西，确实有很棒的模型，这没得说，但要想真正服务客户，就必须借助像CrowdStrike这样公司过去十五年建立起来的深厚关系。
So when you look at what Anthropic has come out with, they've got some great models, no doubt, but in order to be able to work with customers, you have to take advantage of those deep relationships which companies like CrowdStrike have built over the last fifteen years.
你们得用好我们Falcon技术积累的海量数据优势，还得利用我们正在帮助客户阻止重大泄露、帮非客户应对已发生的泄露，进而把他们变成客户的这个独特位置。
You have to leverage the deep data moat that we have with our Falcon technology and you have to leverage the fact that we're in the middle of helping to stop these big breaches or helping non customers respond to the breaches they have and then we turn them into customers.
所以我觉得，这个生态系统才是关键。
So I think the ecosystem is a key part.
他们也清楚这一点，我们很乐意成为这个联盟的一员，而且我们还在和OpenAI的TAC项目紧密合作。
They recognize that and we're happy to be part of that coalition And, know, again, we're also working with OpenAI in their TAC program.
我们正处在人工智能与安全的中心位置。
So we're at the epicenter of AI and security.
这充分说明了我们所处的领导地位。
And I think that goes to show you the leadership position that we have.
你能跟我讲讲 Project QuiltWorks 吗？你们现在具体在做些什么？
Well, can you talk to me about Project QuiltWorks and what you are doing there?
因为我觉得它对未来的意义，跟你们在 Glasswing 上做的工作一样重要。
Because that seems to be equally as important for the future as what you might be doing in Glasswing.
确实如此。
It is.
你想啊，Glasswing 刚推出的时候，只有寥寥几家公司在用 Methos。
Well, when you think about Glasswing when it came out, you have only a handful of companies that have access to Methos.
所以很多客户，他们的董事会、首席执行官都在问：我们该怎么办？
So you have a lot of customers, their boards, their CEO saying, what can we do?
连首席执行官半夜都给我打电话，财富百强企业直接说：Methos，帮帮我们，我们该怎么做？
Mean, CEO is calling me in the middle of the night, Fortune 10 companies going, Methos, help us, what can we do?
这一切到底是怎么运作的？我们怎么才能确保安全？
How does all this work and how do we make sure we're secure?
我们正处在这些对话的中心，机会太大了，必须组建一个联盟，像埃森哲这样的公司，用我们的技术帮客户找出潜在的风险点。
We're in the middle of these conversations and the opportunity is so large that you need to create a coalition around this, the Accenture's, the of the world, etc, where they can work using our technology to help customers understand where exposures are.
我们每进入一家公司，都会发现数以百万计的安全隐患。
We're finding millions of exposures in companies that we go into.
这些隐患需要优先处理，同时你得弄清楚像Falcon这样的防护措施是否到位，能不能有效阻止风险。
Those need to be prioritized and you need to understand what mitigating controls like Falcon are in place to be able to prevent against those.
所以这里的机会在于，我们的合作伙伴会介入到现有客户或非客户中——那些正在使用我们技术做AI readiness评估的企业，最终都会变成我们的客户。
So the great opportunity here is we have our partners drop into either customers or non customers that we turn into customers because they're using our technology as part of this AI readiness assessment.
这对我们来说，其实是一个巨大的放大效应。
So it's really a multiplier effect for us.
你有没有觉得奇怪？当初漏洞刚曝光的时候，连冬天我们都意识到有这么多问题，可当时大家居然都觉得这对CrowdStrike是坏事。我第一次看到的时候，心里想的是：天啊，这简直是送上门的机遇。
Aren't you surprised that when everything first broke, even in the winter when we realized all the different vulnerabilities, that somehow all this stuff was was a belief that it was bad for CrowdStrike when I know I know when I first saw it, I said, oh my god, bonanza.
可我之前读到的全是这种说法：CrowdStrike要完蛋了。
And yet all I'd read for so long was this is the end of CrowdStrike.
你觉得这个说法哪里出了问题？
What do you think went wrong with that narrative?
人们怎么会完全看反了呢？
How did people just get it completely backward?
吉姆，你得从安全的角度来看这个问题。
Well, Jim, you have to look at security.
安全涉及很多方面，比如在源代码里发现漏洞，只是其中之一。
There's many different facets and finding vulnerabilities in source code is one facet of it.
明白吗？
Okay?
而大型语言模型在这方面做得相当不错。
And that's what the LLM models do pretty well.
但你还要看安全的最终目标是什么。
But then you have to look at the overall purpose of security.
它的目标是阻止入侵。
It's to stop the breach.
你必须跟上节奏。
You have to be in line.
你必须做对。
You have to get it right.
你知道吗，第一次遇到威胁时，你必须能生成数据，帮助你理解发生了什么，然后用这些数据做训练。我们拥有一个庞大的专有数据优势，这可是十多年积累下来的。
You know, the first time you see a threat, you've got to be able to create data that allows you to understand what's happening and train that data and we have a massive proprietary data moat from, you know, over a decade of doing this.
归根结底，我们可以用这些大模型来更高效地服务客户、产生更大影响，但要打造像Falcon这样的安全平台，这仅仅是其中一部分工作。
So at the end of the day, we can use these LLMs to be more successful and have greater impact with our customers, but it's only one aspect of what you need to do to build a security platform like Falcon.
当初这个概念刚出来的时候，很多人误以为只要把所有漏洞都修掉，世界就安全了。
So when this came out, I think a lot of people were confused that if you got rid of all the vulnerabilities that the world would be safe.
事实并非如此。
That's not the case.
就算你把世界上所有的漏洞都补上了，依然会有入侵发生，因为还有像身份盗用这类问题。
You can get rid of all the vulnerabilities in the world and you would still have break ins because you have things like identity theft.
我的意思是，你的账号、密码、令牌被偷了，黑客登录系统后就把数据全盗走了。
What I mean by that is your credentials, your username, your password, your tokens get stolen, people log into a system and steal all that data.
入侵系统的途径有很多，利用漏洞只是其中之一，你永远不可能彻底清除所有漏洞，所以你依然需要一套完整的生命周期系统，像Falcon这样的记录系统，才能真正阻止这些入侵。
So there are many ways to get into a system, exploiting a vulnerability is just one of those and you're never gonna get rid of all of them, and you're still gonna need a full life cycle system, a system of record like Falcon to be able to stop those breaches.
而且我注意到。
And I look.
我知道我一直在把问题局限在关于人工智能和神话这一块。
I know that I'm I've been limiting my questions to this notion of what happens with with the anthropic of mythos.
但那些纯粹就是威胁要搞垮你公司、逼你付钱的攻击，一点都没减少，这正是CrowdStrike的主业。
There's been no diminution of the just plain vanilla, I'm gonna wreck your company, pay me kind of things that get CrowdStrike does for a living.
当然不是。
Absolutely not.
吉姆，我们之前已经深入聊过勒索软件这种事了，对吧？
You know, Jim, we have talked extensively about extortion where ransomware, right?
这些网络犯罪团伙会入侵大公司，甚至那些防护能力弱的小企业。
Where these cyber gangs will basically get into a large company or even small companies that don't have the level of protection.
这真的太可耻了。
It's really shameful.
他们入侵后就勒索，你必须在企业整个技术栈上都部署安全防护，明白吗？
They get in and they extort these folks and you need security up and down the entire business stack, right?
不管是小企业还是大公司，这类攻击正变得越来越多。
Whether it's a small business or whether it's a large enterprise and we're only seeing more and more of these sort of attacks.
人工智能带来的影响是，它制造了更多更精明的对手，因为他们直接利用了这些模型。
What AI has done is it's created more adversaries with greater sophistication because they're leveraging the models themselves.
那这意味着什么？
So what does that mean?
这意味着像CrowdStrike这样的公司会获得更多助力。
It means more tailwinds for companies like CrowdStrike.
明白了。
Okay.
最后一个问题是。
Last question.
我刚开始跟你聊的时候，网络安全领域有那么多人。
You you there were so many people in cybersecurity when I first started talking to you.
我现在觉得，这行已经变得太大了，威胁也太可怕了，必须得有一整套完整的解决方案。
I kinda feel like that it's gotten so big and the threats are so horrible that you need a complete suite.
除了你们之外，唯一一家能提供这么完整方案的，就是尼凯什·奥罗拉的公司，Palo Alto Networks。
And the only one other than you that has a pretty complete suite would be Nikesh Nikesh Aurora's company, Palo Alto Networks.
就你们两家吗？
Is it just you and them?
现在变成双头垄断了？
Is it just a duopoly now?
我觉得最终胜出的会是那些平台型厂商。
Well, I I think the the platform vendors are ultimately gonna win.
这个市场确实很大，竞争也很激烈，但对我们来说，能有现在的地位特别幸运——我们从零开始打造的技术本身就是原生集成的。
Obviously, it's a big market and, you know, it's a competitive market, but we like where we are given our position, given how we've built the technology from the ground up as being sort of native integrated technology.
我们靠的是不一样的创新路径，不是靠不断收购技术，但归根结底，市场上就那么几个大玩家，正如你所说，机会很多，但真正能站住脚的没几个。
We come at it just from a different approach of how we drive innovation as opposed to just acquiring a bunch of technologies, but at the end of the day, you have just a few big players that are out there and I think there's a lot of opportunity for the companies that are out there, but there's only a handful of them as you pointed out.
明白了。
Alright.
我对我们的前景很有信心。
And I I like our I like our chances.
这我完全理解。
I don't blame you.
我打算做一件至少昨晚就该有人做的事。
I'm gonna do something that I think someone at least should have done last night.
恭喜你，乔治·科尔斯，克劳德斯特里克的创始人兼首席执行官，本季度表现出色。
Congratulations on a good quarter, George Curse, founder and CEO of CrowdStrike.
很高兴和你聊天。
Good to talk to you.
非常感谢你，吉姆。
Thanks so much, Jim.
我们
We have
退款
money back
稍事休息一下。
here for a break.
接下来，今年夏天的IPO热潮正式升温。
Coming up, the summer of IPOs is officially heating up.
克拉默正在用显微镜分析今天的大热股——Quantinuum。
So Cramer's taking a microscope to today's scorcher, Quantinuum.
接下来。
Next.
这对经济来说是个关键时刻。
A key moment for the economy.
五月的就业数据可能会如何影响首次决策？
How might the May jobs data influence the first decision?
就业数据与分析。
Employment numbers and analysis.
《晨间狂飙》。
Squawk Box.
明天早上八点半东部时间，CNBC Plus直播。
Tomorrow 08:30AM eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.
大家都盯着下周的SpaceX交易，但眼下其实有不少重要的IPO正在发生。
Everybody's focused on the SpaceX deal next week, but we've got some substantial IPOs happening right now.
以Quantinuum为例，这家公司刚刚完成了16.8亿美元的融资，市场反响非常好。
Take Quantinuum, which just raised $1,680,000,000 in a deal that was pretty well received.
这是霍尼韦尔旗下分拆出来的独立量子计算公司。
This is Honeywell's former quantum computing subsidiary that's being spun off as an independent company.
由于需求太旺，他们不得不两次上调融资规模。
There was so much interest that they had to upsize the deal twice.
原本他们打算定价在45到50美元之间，但最终Quantinuum把价格定在了60美元，还多卖了近700万股。
Originally, were looking for a price between $45 and $50, but Continuum ended up pricing its deal at 60, and they sold nearly 7,000,000 shares more than they planned.
真厉害。
Wow.
简而言之，大家对这家公司热情很高，因为很多投资者依然对量子计算充满期待。
In short, there's a lot of demand for this one because many investors are still excited about quantum computing.
如果你非得投资量子计算领域，尽管这技术还处于早期阶段，但选Quantinuum绝对是个不错的选择。
And if you have to own a quantum computing play, even though the technology is still in sympathy, you can do a lot worse than quintillion.
和一般靠风投撑起来的科技初创公司不同，这家公司是霍尼韦尔早在2014年就启动的项目，目标是打造全球最先进的量子计算机。
Unlike your typical venture capital backed tech startups, this is a business that was started by Honeywell way back in 2014 with the goal of creating the world's most advanced quantum computers.
到了2021年，他们把量子业务和一家叫剑桥量子计算的英国公司合并了，那家公司专攻软件领域。
Then in 2021, they merged their quantum business with a British company called Cambridge Quantum Computing, which is all about the software side.
霍尼韦尔随后向这家新公司投入了近3亿美元，并保留了多数股权。
Honeywell then poured almost $300,000,000 into the new venture and retained a majority stake in the business.
从那以后，Quantinuum陆续推出了多代量子计算机。
Since then, Continuous launched multiple generations of quantum computers.
去年九月，他们通过一轮私募融资筹集了6亿美元，公司估值达到100亿美元。
And last September, they raised $600,000,000 in a private funding round that valued the company at $10,000,000,000.
几年前，霍尼韦尔开始拆分业务。
Now a couple years ago, Honeywell started breaking itself up.
他们把先进材料业务分拆出去，成立了索利斯蒂斯先进材料公司。
They spun off their advanced materials business as Solstice Advanced Materials.
我很看好这家公司。
I love that company.
去年秋天。
It's last fall.
他们计划在这个月内将航空业务分拆出去。
And they plan to spin off their aerospace business sometime this month.
我们把它纳入了旅行信托基金。
We own it for the travel trust.
与此同时，他们决定让量子业务继续保持上市状态。
At the same time, they decided to take continuing public.
我觉得这是个正确的决定。
Now I think it's the right move.
量子计算业务和霍尼韦尔的任何主要业务板块都很难匹配。
The quantum, computing business really doesn't fit with any of Honeywell's big divisions.
更重要的是，这是一项充满风险、目前还在亏损的投入，可能要多年后才能带来回报，但现在不行。
More importantly, it's a speculative money losing venture that might pay off big debt years down the road, but not now.
这和特种材料、航空零部件或自动化技术的业务模式完全不同。
Very different profile from special materials or aerospace parts or automation technology.
当然，霍尼韦尔还是保留了50%的少数股权。
Course, Honeywell's hanging on to a sub of 50%.
这是对Continuum的50%持股，会划归自动化业务板块，而不是航空航天板块。
That's a 50% stake in Continuum, which will go with the automation side of the final split, not the aerospace side.
只要市场能给这家公司独立估值，他们就满意了，毕竟过去几年市场对量子计算类股票的需求一直特别旺盛。
They're happy as long as the market can assign this company its own independent valuation, especially because the market can't seem to get enough of these quantum computing stocks for the last couple of years.
事情发展到这一步，那我们现在该怎么办？
That's how we get here, but what do we do now?
换句话说，QuantiNUM值不值得投资？
In other words, is QuantiNUM worth owning?
他们不仅制造真正的量子计算机，还开发配套软件，让设备能接入现实世界，Magne说这些技术未来可能对人工智能有很大帮助。
Now these guys make actual quantum computers along with the software they need to connect to real world environments, and Magne says they can potentially be a big help to artificial intelligence.
他们还对外授权部分技术，以此主导正在崛起的量子计算生态。
They also license out some of their technology in order to dominate the emerging quantum computing ecosystem.
但真正让Continuum脱颖而出的，是它的核心技术。
But what sets Continuum apart is its technology.
我就不往太深的技术细节里钻了，不过你知道，大多数量子公司都是用超导材料做微小电路，还得保持极低温环境。
Now I'm not gonna get too deep in the woods, Woodjer, Wizzer, but, you know, most of these quantum companies, they make tiny electrical circuits out of superconducting materials that need to be kept extremely cold.
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Quantinuum不一样。
Quantinuum's different.
他们用的是被电磁场固定、由激光操控的带电原子。
They use charged atoms that are held in place by electromagnetic fields and manipulated by lasers.
这跟IonQ的做法是一样的。
That's the same approach as IonQ.
说起来，IonQ现在是所有量子计算公司里估值最高的。
And for what it's worth, IonQ is the most richly valuable of all the quantum computing players right now.
当然，Quantinuum说他们的技术精度更高、系统性能更强，因此在商业应用上更有优势。
Of course, Quintinium says that their technology makes for better accuracy and system level performance, which in turn makes it more most useful for commercial applications.
这正是我们想要的。
That's what we want.
我们当然想赚钱。
We wanna make some money.
我姑且相信他们的话，但我本人没学过量子物理，上学时也特意避开了这些内容。
I'll take them at the word, but I don't candidly have a degree in quantum physics and managed to avoid those those subjects studiously when I was in college.
更重要的是，Quantinuum称他们的技术比竞争对手更易扩展。
More important, Quantinuum says their technology is more scalable than the competition.
如果这是真的，而且他们能快速提升产量，那确实意义重大。
If that's true and they can ramp up production rapidly, that really does mean something.
我们知道，美国政府刚刚给了他们一亿美元。
We know that the US government just gave them a $100,000,000.
这笔钱来自《芯片法案》，而且他们和政府早就合作多年了。
It was under the CHIPS Act, and they already have a long history of working with Uncle Sam.
但几乎所有独立的量子计算公司都拿到了类似的上亿美元资助。
But nearly all of the independent quantum computing plays got a $100,000,000 from the surrounding grants.
所以这笔钱并不能说明太多关于这家公司的实力。
So it doesn't tell you that much about the company.
而且，我真希望这笔钱是在IPO之后到账，而不是之前。
Plus, I wish it had happened after the IPO, not right before it.
不过，咱们还是来聊聊数字吧。
Still, let's talk numbers.
我之前就说过，量子领域本质上充满不确定性，而且这技术还处于非常早期的阶段。
Like I said before, anything quantum is inherently speculative, but this remains very early stage technology.
Quantinuum 去年的收入只有 3090 万美元，虽然比前一年增长了 35%，但跟它现在的股价相比，还是太低了。
Quantinuum had just $30,900,000 in revenues last year, up 35% year over year, but still a paltry number considering the stock's valuation.
今天开盘价是 68 美元，后来跌到 60 美元，收盘时才微涨 0.6%，勉强超过发行价。
After the stock opened for today at $68, it sunk to $60 and changed at the close, up just point 6% from the offer price.
即便如此，这家公司的估值还是超过了 150 亿美元。
Still at that level, the company is being valued at over $15,000,000,000.
更糟的是，这家公司正在大量亏钱。
Somewhat worse, the company's losing a ton of money.
去年，Quantinuum 的调整后净亏损高达 5.156 亿美元，主要因为研发支出达到了 3.813 亿美元。
Last year, Quantinuum had a pro form a net loss of 515,600,000, now primarily because of 381,300,000 in r and d expenses.
就算看相对宽松的 EBITDA 数据，亏损也有 1.71 亿美元。
Even when you look at the more forgiving EBITDA numbers, we're still talking about a $171,000,000 loss.
总而言之，现在这生意完全不赚钱，而且未来好几年恐怕都难有起色。
In short, this is a very unprofitable venture right now, and it will likely remain unprofitable for years to come.
今年第一季度，Quintinuum的收入是520万美元。
In the first quarter of this year, Quintinuum had $5,200,000 in revenue.
明白吗？
Okay?
同比暴跌了将近7272%，原因是去年有个一次性大单，这个季度没再发生。
That's down nearly 7272% year over year because of a lumpy transaction in a year ago, a quarter that didn't repeat.
至于盈利情况，他们这一季亏了1.306亿美元。
In terms of earnings, well, they lost a $130,600,000.
别忘了，这还只是单季的数据。
And keep in mind, that's just one quarter.
我只是想帮你理清一下这个情况。
Now I'm trying to give you I'm I'm just trying to put it in perspective.
明白吗？
Okay?
Quintinuum的资产负债表确实不错，基本没债务，但目前现金流问题非常严重。
Now Quintinuum does have a good balance sheet with basically no debt, but it's also deeply cash flow negative at this point.
你可能也猜到了，以这样的亏损速度，这些人迟早得再筹钱，要么借钱，要么增发股票。
As you might expect with those losses, Sooner or later, these guys are gonna have to raise more money either through borrowing or maybe through additional stocks.
但说实话，这些数字现在根本无关紧要，因为买家根本不在乎。
But honestly, those current numbers are basically irrelevant here because the buyers just don't care.
这纯粹是瞎猜。
This is pure rank speculation.
也许确实有这种可能，Quintinuum 未来会成为量子计算领域的领头羊。
It may very well be the case that continue that Quintinuum should be considered one of the leaders in quantum computing technology.
我学历不够，没法判断这到底是不是真的。
I don't have enough degrees to assess whether that's true or not.
但就算 Quintinuum 真的是最棒的公司，我们也不知道量子计算要多少年才能真正赚钱。
But even if Quintinuum's the best operator, we have no idea how many years it will take before quantum computing becomes commercially viable.
得做好准备，可能要连续好多年承受巨额亏损。
Think years and years of of potentially huge losses.
我从不反对别人去押注自己真心相信的故事。
Now I never wanna stop someone from speculating a story that they truly believe in.
只要他们清楚自己在做什么，那就没问题。
So as long as they understand what they're doing, it's fine.
过去一年里，我们一再看到，炒作量子科技股其实挺赚钱的。
As we've seen over and over again in the past year, speculating the quantum stocks have been pretty lucrative.
那些去年十月高位接盘的人，可就惨了。
They're not for the poor souls who bought these stocks at the top last October.
所以你得留个心眼。
So you gotta be careful.
但对我而言，这个故事太投机了，现在还不适合推荐，尤其是估值高得离谱，股票一上市就冲上天。
But for me, the story is too speculative to recommend right now, especially with the sky high valuation, the stocks getting right out of the gate.
一旦华尔街转向抛售这些投机股，这种事总会出现。
The moment Wall Street turns against the speculative stocks, we always see that happen.
去年秋天就发生过一次，到时候这股票肯定会被打得惨不忍睹。
It happened last fall, then this stock will get hammered.
所以我直接说重点吧。
So let me give you the bottom line.
Quantinuum 以前一直是霍尼韦尔的子公司，现在终于上市了。
After long existing as a sub of Honeywell, Quantinuum's finally coming finally came public.
虽然它的故事听起来不错，但目前还远谈不上是一个成熟的业务。
And while it is it's got a good story to tell, this is just not enough of an actual business yet.
如果你真想买，只拿能亏得起的钱，这简直是投机的极致形式。
If you wanna buy it, only use money you can afford to lose because this really is the most extreme form of speculation.
我只是想把这话说出来。
I just wanted to put it out there.
大家都对 Quantinuum 兴奋得不得了。
Everyone's so excited about Quintinium.
我只是想提醒大家稍微冷静一点。
I just want to invoke a little bit of caution.
来自佛蒙特州的弗农。
Vernon in Vermont.
弗农。
Vernon.
嗨，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
我今年92岁了，可能是听过你节目年纪最大的听众。
I'm 92 years old and probably the oldest person that ever called into your program.
有可能。
That could be.
我是个行动派，一直关注IBM的估值，它先跌了一百，又涨回了一百。
I'm an activist fester, and I'm concerned about the the valuation of IBM, which has gone down a 100 and then back up a 100.
我想知道，以现在三百以上的估值，IBM能撑得住盈利预期吗？
I'm do you think that at present valuations of 300 or above, IBM can meet its earnings requirements at that level.
哦，明白了，弗农。
Oh, okay, Vernon.
你提的问题确实很有意思。
Look, I think you raised a really interesting question.
你说它先涨后跌，又涨回来。
You said it was up, down, up, down.
这只股票一周内涨了大约80点。
This stock was up stock is up about 80 points in in in in in a, like, a week.
我觉得可以再给它一点时间。
I think we gotta give it a chance.
我得等它回落一点，才会真正认可，我很看好它，但现在涨得太猛了。
I want it to come down before I can give it my seal of approval, and I like it very much, but it's up on a spike.
这种暴涨走势，我不太建议追。
And, you know, I don't recommend parabolic move by.
这种行情，很少值得入手。
It's hardly ever worth.
明白了。
Okay.
Quantinuum的故事确实不错，但目前还谈不上成熟的业务。
Quantinuum's got a great story to tell, but it isn't much of a business yet.
更像一个科研项目。
Maybe a little more of it like a science project.
我现在只能建议把它当作投机仓位来操作，除此之外没什么好推荐的。
I can't recommend anything more than a speculative position in it right now.
在蒂姆肯公司的股票上赚了不少钱。
Much more made money at shares of Timken
股价已经涨了
are up
过去一年里几乎涨了90个点。
nearly 90 over the past year.
那么，这家有着125年历史的公司是如何实现自我革新的呢？
So how is this 125 year old company been able to reinvent itself?
我特意去采访了他们的CEO，想一探究竟。
I've got the CEO to find out.
我们正见证着围绕Dollar Tree这家公司的投资逻辑发生根本性的转变。
Then we are witnessing a permanent change in the investment thesis around the dollar stores.
我跟你讲，这可不是什么好消息。
I'm telling you, and it's not a good one.
我来跟你们说说我对这一批股票的看法。
I'm gonna share you how I feel about this cohort.
接下来是今晚闪电轮环节的快速问答环节，所有来电都会集中播放，别走开，马上回来。
And all your calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the Lightning Round, so stay with the break.
今天，各种非科技类工业股都大幅上涨。
Today, all sorts of non tech industrial stocks roared higher.
这让你不由得想重新关注蒂姆肯公司，他们生产各种工程轴承和工业运动设备。
That makes you wanna circle back to the Timken company, a manufacturer of all sorts of engineered bearings, industrial motion equipment.
他们让整个工业世界持续运转。
They keep the industrial world moving.
这只股票最近涨势非常猛。
This stock's actually been on a tear.
今年到目前为止，股价已经上涨了近59%，过去一个月就涨了将近25%。
It's up almost 59% year to date, including nearly 25% gain over the past month.
蒂姆·克莱默在五月初报告了他们出色的季度业绩。
And for Tim Cramer reported a blowout quarter at the beginning of May.
几周前，公司举办了一场非常令人振奋的投资者会议，管理层谈到他们有望到2028年将盈利较去年增长55%。
Couple weeks ago, company held a very exciting investor meeting where management talked about how they could grow earnings by 55% from last year through 2028.
说实话，这确实很了不起。
That's pretty impressive, if you ask me.
那这只股票还能继续上涨吗？
So can the stock keep running?
我们来连线一下卢西安·博尔代亚。
Let's check-in with Lucian Boldea.
他是蒂姆西公司的总裁兼首席执行官，我们去了解一下情况。
He is the president and CEO of the Timsea company to find out.
博尔代亚先生，欢迎来到《曼 bunny》。
Mister Boldea, welcome to Man Bunny.
谢谢您的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
很高兴能来
It's a pleasure to
在这儿。
be here.
卢西安，我们以前经常聊蒂姆肯，后来就渐渐没怎么提了。
Lucian, we we used to talk a lot about Timken, then it kinda fell off the radar screen.
现在它又回来了，不过形式不一样了。
Now it's back, but in a different formulation.
在深入讨论之前，你能先给大家介绍一下你们公司是做什么的，为什么在新工业经济中这么关键吗？
Can you tell people first before we get dig deep what you guys do and how you're so integral to the new industrial economy?
当然可以。
Absolutely.
能来这里介绍公司，我感到非常荣幸。
It's really really a pleasure to be here to describe the company.
我们是一家125年的老企业，最初是做轴承的，最近十年又新增了先进的运动技术产品线，总共完成了14次收购。
We're a hundred 25 year old company, and we started out being a bearings producer, and we really added in the last ten years an advanced motion technology portfolio, 14 acquisitions in total.
这让我们从单纯的零部件供应商——比如轴承只是个部件——升级为能设计完整系统，打造一体化的总成解决方案。
What this allows us to do is go from a component supplier, which a bearing is more of a component, to a whole system, designing a system apart of a total integral assembly.
举个例子，想想航空母舰上的齿轮箱，电力发电机里的传动减速装置，还有用于微创手术的微型机器人——这些领域我们都有涉及。
So for example, think of a gearbox on an aircraft carrier, think of a transmission gear reduction unit on a utility in power gen, think of a micro robot for microsurgery, we're in all those applications.
这些应用非常有意思，随着人工智能开始接触并影响物理世界，我们负责传递这些运动。
So very, very interesting applications that are bringing as AI touches the physical world and impacts it, we transmit that motion.
因此，我们在其中扮演着关键角色。
So we play a critical role there.
我第一次看你们的资料时，说实话，根本搞不清你们的竞争对手是谁。
Now when I first went over your documents, I frankly couldn't figure out who you compete with.
除了你们，还有别人做这些吗？
Does anyone do these things besides you?
是的。
Yeah.
我们相当独特。
We're fairly unique.
这些技术各自可能都有其他公司涉足，但当你谈到整个系统，谈到与品牌方或原始设备制造商深度合作、共同解决问题时，我们能把一系列独特的解决方案整合在一起，能做到这一点的公司寥寥无几。
You know, every one of these technologies might have other players, But when you're talking about a system, when you're talking about a component, engaging really with a brand owner, with an OEM to this to solve their problem, we bring a series of unique solutions together to where there's few people who do this.
我觉得最接近的可能是Regal Rex，他们也在类似领域。
I would say the closest would be someone like Regal Rex that is in a similar space.
不过我们那些轴承领域的老对手，可没有我们这么完整的运动系统。
But then we have our bearings legacy competitors, but they don't have all the motion systems that we have.
所以我觉得，我们的位置确实很独特。
So we're pretty uniquely positioned, I would say.
我觉得大家得明白，如果一个东西一直不停地动，它根本撑不住。
Well, I think people have to understand that if you move something constantly, it doesn't work.
机器人要是老在动，迟早会卡住，说白了就是会出问题。
You move robots around, they'll they'll gum up, so to speak.
你能说说看，在我们现在谈的这种新工厂里，有你们和没你们，会有什么不同吗？
Can you tell us what happens in a new factory, the kind of factories that we now talk about with you or and then without you, what would occur?
当然，吉姆。
Yes, Jim.
这是个非常好的问题。
That's a that's a great question.
未来的工厂可能是无人照明的工厂，也可能是全自动的工厂。
And the factory of the future could be a dark factory, could be an autonomous factory.
就在此时此刻，今天的挖掘机或矿用卡车已经是无人驾驶的了。
The excavator or the mining truck of today is a driverless truck as we sit here and speak today.
这就对可靠性和稳定性提出了完全不同的要求，因为没有维修人员或人类时刻盯着它。
That requires a totally different level of reliability and dependability because there's not a maintenance man or a human watching it all the time.
没错。
Right.
我的意思是，如果我去一家用了你们系统的工厂，可能那里一个人都没有。
Well, I mean, if I go to one of your to a factory that has you, I it may be that there's nobody else there.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
That's correct.
没错。
That's correct.
所以你需要很高的可靠性。
And so you need a level of reliability.
你需要很高的可预测性。
You need a level of predictability.
你需要一种完全不同的服务水平，这意味着作为供应商，我们必须以更深入的方式参与客户的工作，这直接体现在客户采购份额上，这也是我们战略的一部分。
You need a level of service that's completely different, which means we as suppliers need to take a different role with the customer, a bigger role with the customer, which translates into share of wallet, which is what part of our strategy is.
明白了。
Okay.
我必须相信，你提到的那些数字——比如数据中心，包括它的电力和电气化——对你来说真的非常重要，因为这是个快速增长的市场。
I have to believe that the kind of numbers you're talking about, the yes, the data center, including the power and electrification of a data center, are really going to be important to you because that's that kind of growth market.
对于数据中心的电力和电气化，你会怎么说？
What would you do do say for power and electrification in a data center?
是的。
Yeah.
在数据中心方面，我们曾在投资者日上举过一个例子。
So in a data center, we used an example at investor day.
比如，把一台燃气轮机从一个地区运到另一个地区，电网频率不同，你就得做调整，需要一个齿轮箱来匹配转速，让设备在不同频率下正常发电。
For example, if you take a gas turbine from one region to another, the frequency is different, which means you have to adapt, you have to have a gearbox to adapt that frequency to adjust for that frequency on the RPMs that it turns and generates the power.
这种齿轮箱正是我们自己生产并提供的产品。
That's a gearbox that we would make and we would supply there.
但除此之外，离合器、传动装置、联轴器，还有里面的轴承，所有这些转动部件都算在内。
But any clutches, drives, any couplings, all the things that move that turn, not to mention the bearings that are in there, they're all part of it.
然后，还得搭建一整套基础设施来支撑数据中心的运行。
Then you have all the infrastructure that needs to build to enable a data center.
这同样带动了对非公路工程设备的需求，而我们的技术正好能支持这类设备。
That also drives demand for off highway equipment that we enable with our technologies.
另外，从公司的发展历程来看，我坚信你们一直在逐步退出那些比较普通、不需要多少电气工程或高精度制造的业务。
Now, I also have to believe when I look at the evolution of the company, you've been consistently getting out of different different tasks that are very kind of prosaic, that don't require a lot of electrification engineering, don't a lot of high precision.
转而专注于更复杂、技术门槛更高的产品，这条路你们走对了。
And then moving up the food chain to things that are really much more difficult to make, and it's worked.
对吧？
Right?
你的业务已经从那些慢节奏的领域，转向了更高端的领域。
I mean, you're kind of out of the slower stuff and into the better stuff.
说得一点没错。
That's exactly right.
我们公司刚成立的时候，美国的汽车用的还是蒂姆肯的滚子，不是轴承。
I mean, we this company started when cars in America used to ride on Timken's, not bearings.
我们已经退出了那个行业。
We've exited that business.
汽车业务在我们整体业务中的占比将低于百分之四。
Automotive is going to be below 4% of our business.
汽车制造商现在转向了关键任务应用，而我们正在为手术机器人提供支持。
The automotive OEM moved into mission critical applications where now we're enabling surgical robots.
我们现在所处的领域，跟过去完全不一样了，但这个转变是逐步发生的。
We're really working on come in a completely different world than we were before, but this happened gradually.
现在我们正站在一个关键节点上，可以真正把这项事业推向新高度，实现我们的战略目标，这也是我们在投资者日上分享的内容。
We're now at a pivot point where we really can take this to the next level and really enable our strategy, and that's what we were able to share at investor day.
这其实是在充分利用我们的业务组合、所处的市场、客户聚焦点，以及这些出色的区域机会。
It's really leveraging not only the portfolio, the markets that we're in, where do we focus on our customers, and then these great regional opportunities.
我们有很多业务都是只在一个地区运营的。
We have a huge portfolio of businesses that are single region businesses.
所有这些收购来的公司，加起来占了公司收入的三分之一。
All these acquired companies, they're a third of the revenue of the company.
每一个单独来看，都是只在一个地区开展业务的公司。
Each one of them on their own is a single region business.
你可以把它们想象成一整桶自助式增长的工具。
So imagine you have really a bucket of self help.
我可以一个一个地把它们拓展到新的地区。
I can take these one at a time and take them to new regions.
明白了。
Alright.
总之，你们现在是一家跨国公司了。
Well, finally, you are a multinational company.
你不在美国。
You're not in America.
不过你在美國的业务很多。
You do a lot in America, though.
我相信这种安抚举措确实有意义。
I have to believe that the whole reassuring effort matters.
安抚措施有没有让你在美国的业务有所回升？
Have you seen a pickup in your business in America from reassuring?
有。
Yes.
确实有。
You have.
好的。
Okay.
说说看。
Tell me.
公司大部分收入仍然来自北美地区。
The the majority of the revenue as a company is still a North America revenue.
对我们来说，其中一个关键因素是产品在本地生产。
For us, for ourselves, one of the things that's helped is it's produced in regions.
我们在哪里运营，就在哪里制造。
So we produce wherever we are.
我们全球有很多工厂，但跨区域运输的产品非常少。
We have a lot of factories around the world, but we transport very little across regions.
我们在美国卖的产品，都是在美国生产的。
So what we sell in America, we make in America.
我们的客户推动了大量需求——无论是基础设施投入、数据中心建设，还是国防和航空航天开支，这些都带动了我们的业务，而回流制造无疑是一个对我们帮助很大的趋势。
And then our customers obviously are driving a lot of demand, whether it's infrastructure spend, whether it's data center build, whether it's defense and aerospace spending, all that pulls on our demand, but reshoring is definitely a big trend that's helping us.
我真希望自己 earlier 更关注贵公司，因为我知道你们股价涨得非常厉害，但要是按你们的预测来看，股价到现在几乎没怎么动，离它该有的水平还差得远。
Well, I wish that I had followed your company more closely because I know there's been a huge run-in it, but if you make the kind of a if you make those projections, I know the stock has barely moved versus where it can go.
感谢蒂姆肯公司总裁兼首席执行官卢西安·博尔代斯。
I wanna thank Lucian Boldeis, the president and CEO of Timken Company, TKR.
真希望我早点关注你们，你们的故事太精彩了。
Wish I hadn't more attracted you guys because what a great story you have.
天啊，资金又回来了
Man, money's back at
广告时段。
the break.
接下来，你们有问题，
Coming up, you've got questions.
克雷默来解答。
Cramer's got the answers.
准备好了吗？接下来是一轮快速问答。
Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.
该开始了。
It is time.
现在该和你们聊聊了。
Time to talk to you by by by by.
接下来闪电问答就结束了。
And then the lightning round is over.
你准备好了吗？
Are you ready?
克雷默，你来说。
Cramer.
我是来自科罗拉多的吉姆。
This is Jim in Colorado.
我认识你。
Know you.
我注意到 Photronics 两周前股价大跌，想听听你的看法。
I noticed Photronics was taking a dumper about two weeks ago, and I just wanted to get your opinion on
他们季度业绩确实没达标。
They missed quarter really.
他们的季度业绩差得离谱。
So they missed the quarter really badly.
遇到这种情况，我们就会把它放进观察名单，等下个季度再看，实在没法相信这种事只发生了一次。
So what we do when we have something like that we put in the penalty box until we see the next quarter because we just can't believe that there was just one.
这真的让人很失望。
It was very disappointing.
我们连线一下佐治亚州的迪普。
Let's go to deep in Georgia.
迪普。
Deep.
嗨，吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
首先，非常感谢你和你的团队所做的一切。
First of all, a very big thank you to you and your staff for everything that you do.
好的。
Okay.
谢谢。
Thank you
非常感谢。
very much.
我当初在这家公司买了少量股票，但一直没怎么听到关于它的消息。
I started a small position in this company, but I haven't heard much about it.
我想问问你对伍德沃德和WWT有什么看法？
I was wondering if you could give your opinion on Woodward, WWT.
你知道，我们今晚讨论的这家公司，属于那种非常顶尖的类型。
You know, you it's a very highly just kind of what the company we have on tonight.
我个人觉得这是一家非常出色的企业。
I I happen to think it's a very, very good company.
你别指望能以低于30倍市盈率买到，现在都快到40倍了，但人家做工业发动机和工程产品，现在这届政府下正吃香，我强烈推荐。
You're not gonna get this coming for less than 30 it's gonna be 40 times earnings, which it is, but to engineer products, industrial engines, it's what's working now, during this administration, and I recommend it.
我们连线纽约的卡特里娜。
Let's go to Katrina in New York.
卡特里娜。
Katrina.
嗨，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
普亚。
Puya.
普亚，卡特琳娜。
Puya, Katrina.
谢谢你们。
I thank you.
我的问题是关于人类的。
My question is about mankind.
这是最近获批的。
That's a recent approval.
我想听听你的看法。
I'd like to know your opinion.
完全是投机。
100% speculation.
这完全是猜测。
A total speculate.
在我的书里，我提到过，你可以有一个猜测，然后你得把那些被认为更注重盈利的股票都算上。
In my book, I talk about how you can have one speculation, and then you have to have all their stocks that are, you know, considered to be a little bit more earnings oriented.
这个正好符合那种猜测的性质。
This would fit as that speculation.
所以我只认可它在这一点上的意义。
So I bless it for that purpose only.
我们接下来请阿德里安和玛丽莲发言。
Let's go to Adrian and Marilyn.
阿德里安。
Adrian.
好的。
Yes.
你好，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
希望你一切都好，感谢你分享这么多内容。
I hope all is well with you, and thank you for everything that you share.
哦，谢谢你。
Oh, thank you.
我这边挺好的。
Things are good.
我也希望你那边一切顺利。
I hope the same.
有什么我可以帮你的吗？
How can I help?
我打电话是想聊聊西方石油公司。
I'm calling about Occidental Petroleum.
你对这家公司怎么看？
What's your take on that?
好的。
Okay.
现在这个时候，我可不想让人觉得我是在站队支持或反对战争，但我还是得说清楚。
You at this point, I don't wanna make it sound like I'm pro war anti war geez, but I'm gonna say it.
如果战争结束，这只股票肯定会大跌。
If the war ends, that stock's gonna go down a lot.
明白吗？
Okay?
你得这么看问题，我只是给你这个建议。
And that's the way you have to look at it, and I just offer that advice.
各位，这就是闪电环节的全部内容了。
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.
闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助播出。
The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
接下来，克拉默将深入分析华尔街正在上演的‘ dollar store末日’，看看这些股票是否还有反弹的可能。
Coming up, Cramer's dissecting what is becoming a dollar store doomsday on Wall Street and whether any of these stocks can bounce back next.
吉姆·克拉默。
Jim Cramer.
我是第一次打电话，也是个开心的会员。
I'm a first time caller, a happy club member.
感谢你为普通投资者挺身而出。
I wanna thank you for being the people's champion of investing.
谢谢你帮我实现了百万富翁的目标。
Thank you for helping me become a millionaire.
这一季度，我们是不是不再把 Dollar Store 当成经济低迷时的受益股了？
Was this the quarter when we lost the dollar stores as places that benefit from a weaker economy?
以前我们一直觉得，消费者手头紧的时候，就会去 dollar store 买东西，所以我们就会买这些店的股票。
For the longest time, we assumed that when the consumer's feeling hard pressed, they go to the dollar stores, and we'd go for the dollar store stocks.
但这次情况完全不一样了。
But it didn't happen this time.
事实上，情况正好相反。
In fact, the opposite occurred.
一家接一家的低价连锁店都表示，手头拮据的消费者让他们的销售额下滑，这些股票在华尔街已经没人要了。
One after another, the bargain chains talked about how their sales were hurt by the cash strapped consumer, and the stocks had become pariahs on Wall Street.
以前我当对冲基金经理的时候，消费者一拮据，我第一个就买这些股票。
Back when I was hedge fund manager, these stocks were exactly what I reached for when the consumer was struggling.
这本来是铁律，但这个季度这个策略彻底失效了，低收入顾客根本没拿闲钱来光顾这些店。
It's axiomatic, but this was the quarter where that that trade just blew up because the lower income shoppers just didn't flock to them with their spare dollars.
来看看这些低价商品巨头们的说法。
Consider these statements from the kings of low priced merchandise.
这是Dollar Tree的首席执行官迈克尔·克里德。
This is Michael Creed, CEO of Dollar Tree.
他说：我们意识到，消费环境依然充满变数，尤其是低收入家庭正面临燃油价格上涨和整体经济不确定性。
Quote, we recognize the consumer environment remains dynamic, especially for lower income households navigating higher fuel costs and broader macro uncertainty.
这是他的原话。
End quote.
换句话说，手头紧的消费者，来这儿买东西的没我们原先想的那么多。
Translation, a strappy consumer isn't shopping here as much as we thought.
Dollar General的首席执行官托德·瓦索斯也提到：我们的核心客户依然经济紧张，哪怕有退税的好处，也被更高的油费和食品券补贴减少抵消了。
Todd Vasos, CEO of Dollar General noted, quote, our core customer continued to be financially constrained as any benefit from tax benefits was largely offset by higher fuel prices and reductions in SNAP benefit payments, SNAP being food stamps.
特别是本季度，许多核心客户表示，由于油价上涨，他们削减了其他家庭开支，包括食品采购。
Those on notably, during the quarter, many of our core customers reported cutting back on other household expenses, including food purchases, for rising gas prices.
这种压力在农村地区的顾客身上更为明显，他们努力减少出行次数，在追求日常实惠和性价比时不得不做出取舍。
This pressure has been more pronounced on customers in rural communities as they work to minimize trip distances and and make trade offs in their search for everyday affordability and value, end quote.
我以为这种压力反而会吸引更多人来购物，而不是让常客减少购买。
I thought that pressure brought more shoppers in, not kept the regular shoppers from shopping as much.
那这些低价促销商品呢？
How about all these bargain ad lit holdings?
这是CEO埃里克·范德瓦尔说的：第一季度，环境变化非常快，油价飙升迅速改变了消费者的购物模式，大家更倾向于一次性采购更多物品。
I mean, here's CEO Eric Vander Vaal, quote, in the first quarter, the environment shifted very quickly with surging gas prices impacting shopping patterns with a focus on trip consolidation, end quote.
一次性采购，其实就是减少出门购物的次数。
Trip consolidation lacked short in for less shopping.
最后看看曾经的市场宠儿Five Below，它昨晚刚发布了财报。
Finally considered former market darling Five Below, which reported just last night.
虽然它的定价稍高一些，但一直被认为是休闲玩具类的真正性价比之选。
Now here's a story with a little higher price point, but it's been viewed as the real bargain for discretionary toys.
但正如首席财务官丹尼尔·沙利文昨晚在电话会议中指出的，我们对宏观环境、消费者情绪和购买行为仍保持谨慎。
But as CFO Daniel Sullivan pointed out in the conference call last night, quote, we remain cautious with respect to the macro environment, consumer sentiment, and buying behaviors.
因此，我们维持了对下半年可比销售额的预期，与之前指引一致。
As such, we have left our half two comparable sales assumptions unchanged from our previous guidance, end quote.
难怪今天股价跌了近14%。
And you wonder why the stock fell almost 14 today.
我们早就习惯了他们上调预期。
We're used to having them raise guides.
现在我们来看看这些消费行为变化带来的影响。
Now let's consider the consequence of these consumer works.
我们一直在节目中讨论过K型经济。
First, we talk about a k shaped economy on the network all the time.
我觉得这个说法可能有点不够准确，因为经济底层正直线下滑。
I think the letter may be a little, let's say, less descriptive because the bottom half of the economy is going straight down.
如果低价零售商都这么艰难，那全国肯定有大量人群日子过得非常不好。
If the lowest price retailers are struggling like this, then a huge number of people must be doing very badly in the country.
其次，多年来一直能卖一美元商品的店铺，如今被通胀和关税——尤其是针对中国商品的关税——彻底打垮了。
Second, after years of being able to offer $1 items, the combination of inflation and tariffs, particularly on China, has totally busted the buck.
Dollar Store 再也感觉不到便宜了。
The dollar stores no longer feel like bargains.
Ollie's 的价格也不够低了。
Ollie's isn't low priced enough either.
Five Below 原本就只是勉强便宜，现在连这点吸引力都没了。
Five below is barely below its barely below it's lost its luster.
毕竟，经济不好的时候，这些公司通常是最受益的，因为消费者会转向更便宜的选择。
After all, when the economy is doing badly, these are the companies that normally do well as consumers trade down.
连它们都撑不住了，那说明老百姓真的被压得喘不过气了。
If even they're getting hurt, you know people are really feeling the squeeze.
这种局面，现在根本不可能再出现了。
It's it's just just not happening anymore.
你可能会说，等等，这不对吧。
Now you might be saying, wait a second.
那TGX呢？
How about TGX?
那家一直挺稳的。
That's been aware.
那是个折扣店。
That's a discount.
明白吧？
Alright?
不过你要知道，TGX主打的不是低价，而是商品种类丰富。
Well, you need to know, TGX is not a play on price as much as it is about selection.
当很多正价商店急于清库存时，TJX就占优势了。
When there are a lot of full price outlets trying to offload inventory, TJX is the winner.
这家店能以远低于预期的价格买到超值商品。
That chain can offer great value for much less than expected.
你花小钱买到的是质量不错的货，跟 dollar store 完全不一样。
You're getting quality goods on the cheap, very different from the dollar stores.
这就是为什么它的股价还能撑着，而其他那些股票却再也提不起劲了。
That's why its stock hangs in while these others just don't seem to have the traction anymore.
事实上，我再进一步说一点。
In fact, let me go one step further.
或许在经历了通胀、关税和石油危机之后，这些折扣店已经不再那么划算了。
Perhaps the bargain stores after inflation, after tariffs, after the oil shock just aren't bargains anymore.
曾经这些股票是应对经济疲软的首选，可能真的已经成过去式了。
The days when these stocks were the go to way to play a weaker economy may just be over.
它曾经表现得非常出色，那段日子真不错。
It's terrific while it lasted.
我常说，总有一个牛市在某个地方，我向你保证，就在这档《疯狂金钱》里，我一定能帮你找到。
I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise I'll find it just for you right here on mad money.
我是吉姆·克莱默。
I'm Jim Cramer.
明天见。
See you tomorrow.
吉姆·克拉默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人看法，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.
您不应将克拉默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人见解。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克拉默的观点基于他所认为可靠的资讯，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证这些资讯的完整性和准确性，因此不应依赖这些资讯做出决策。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。
To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.
7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育未来的新理念与战略规划。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports plan.
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