Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 6/5/26

所以并不是在降低成本，而是在让整个过程更快、更聪明。

So it's not really reducing cost, it's becoming more faster, smarter in the way you do it.

比如在设计新药时，不仅能更快地找到方案、发现新靶点，还能优化分子结构，剔除可能带来副作用的成分，AI 就是在帮我们做这些。

So in the way you design a new medicine, a new drug, you can actually find, do it faster of course, doing smarter, come up with new targets, but also you can optimize your molecule, remove what you think is going to be potentially side effects from the molecule and AI helps you do this.

AI 还帮助我们在药物研发过程中做出更明智的决策。

AI also helps us, making smarter choices in how we develop drugs.

我们和一家叫 Tempus 的公司合作，他们总部在芝加哥。

We have a partnership with a company called Tempus based in Chicago.

我们和他们共同成立了一个叫 Pathos 的项目，开发了一个工具，能把临床数据和实验室数据整合起来，预测一款药物在三期临床试验中成功的概率。

We've done a joint venture with them called Pathos and we are developing, we have developed, an agent that takes all this data together, clinical data, laboratory data and helps us predict the probability of success of a You Phase III know, think about a Phase III trial.

我们为一次临床试验投入了 30.41 亿美元。

We spent $304,105 100,000,000 on the trial.

如果能提高成功的概率，带来的效益提升是巨大的。

If you increase the probability of success, the predictive improvement is enormous.

这关系到的是人命。

Well, that's lives.

这救的是人命。

That's lives saved.

这正是我们想要的。

And that's what we want.

这已经超过了莱尔·索里奥。

That has surpassed Kyle Sorio.

他是阿斯利康的执行董事兼首席执行官，这家公司股票代码是AZN，我们长期支持它。

He's the Executive Director and CEO of AstraZeneca, AZN listed here, and a company that we have supported for a very long time.

谢谢，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

我能把钱拿回来吗？

May I money back in here?

接下来，是什么让运动休闲股跌出了排行榜？

Coming up, what has knocked athleisure stocks down in the standings?

克拉默正在回看录像，想找出原因。

Cramer is studying the tape to find out.

下一个。

Next.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道将亮相Fanatics Fest，探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

运动休闲品类还能再差到什么地步？

How much worse can the athleisure space get?

如果说这个品类已经过时了，那都算客气的了。

If I say this group's going out of style, that is putting it lightly.

昨晚又曝出一个令人失望的季度财报，今天股价直接暴跌。

Last night, reported yet still one more disappointing quarter, and the stock got crushed today.

跌幅超过8%。

Coming more than 8%.

到现在，露露业绩不及预期我都不觉得奇怪了。

At this point, I'm no longer surprised when Lulu misses numbers.

大概这就是常态了吧。

Comes with a stink pants, I guess.

今年到目前为止，股价已经跌了45%，过去十二个月更是跌了65%，但它们可不是孤例。

Stock's down 45% year to date, 65% over the last twelve months, and they're hardly alone.

盖普的运动业务部门刚刚报告，净销售额下降了12%。

Gap's athletic division just reported net sales down 12%.

他们请来了一位前耐克高管来力挽狂澜。

They brought in some former Nike executive to ride the ship.

但到目前为止，还没见起色。

So far, it hasn't worked.

现在还太早了。

It's early.

事实上，耐克本身也让我感到越来越真实，因为我们通过慈善信托持有它的股票。

In fact, Nike itself has become a real something at all too real for me because we own it for the charitable trust.

怪我。

My bad.

几年前，运动休闲风

A few years ago, athleisure was

其中

one of

那是当时最火的消费趋势。

the that was it was the best consumer trend out there.

现在的运动休闲风，比迪斯科还火。

Athleisure now, better than disco.

当年运动休闲风势不可挡的时候，感觉像是一场生活方式的变革。

Back when athleisure seemed unstoppable, it felt like a lifestyle shift.

人们在家工作时穿运动裤，穿健身服和运动鞋去吃饭。

People were wearing sweatpants while working from home, wearing workout clothes and sneakers to dinner.

Lululemon 是当时的高端赢家。

Lululemon was the premium winner.

Athleta原本被寄予厚望，是盖普的增长引擎。

Athleta was supposed to be Gap's growth engine.

耐克则是掌控运动员运动文化的巨头。

Nike was the behemoth that owned athletes' performance sports culture.

疫情一来，运动休闲风几乎成了全民标配。

Once COVID hit, athleisure practically became the uniform of the pandemic.

但也许正是这样，让这个趋势看起来比实际更持久。

Maybe that made this trend look more durable than it really was though.

可一旦生活回归正常，人们又回到办公室，重新穿起了正装。

But once the world went back to normal, people went back to the office and started wearing regular clothes again.

他们手头早就堆满了运动裤和昂贵的健身装备，再买Lululemon或Athleta的意愿就没那么高了。

They don't seem too eager to shop at Lululemon or Athleta when they already have closets full of leggings expensive workout gear.

更大的问题其实是竞争。

The bigger problem though is competition.

这一点对Lululemon来说尤其明显。

And that goes double for Lululemon.

几年前，Lululemon还显得很特别。

Few years ago, Lulu felt unique.

现在人人都在做时尚健身服和功能性运动装。

Now everyone makes trendy workout apparel and performance clothes.

Alo Yoga、Hoka、Nike、Adidas、Athleta，名单能列一长串。

Aloe Viore, on HOKA, Nike, Adidas, Athleta, and the list goes on and on.

当大家都想分一杯羹的时候，除非你的品牌真的无可替代，否则只能打价格战。

When everyone wants a piece of a given industry, you gotta race to the bottom unless your brand is truly untouchable.

归根结底，Lululemon不是路易威登。

And at the end of the day, Lululemon is not Louis Vuitton.

他们品牌确实不错，但要是别人花更少的钱就能买到差不多的东西，大家自然会去别处买，比如好市多，尤其是现在油价、食品和房租都涨了。

They may have a great brand, but if people can get similar stuff for less money elsewhere, then they're gonna go elsewhere, including Costco, especially when gas, groceries, and rent have all gotten more expensive.

数据上已经能看出这种转变了。

You can see the shift in the numbers.

Lululemon最新季度的表现嘛，虽然谈不上灾难，但预期本来就很低。

On the service Lululemon latest quarter was well, it wasn't a disaster, although expectations were pretty low.

他们的销售额和利润都略高于预期，但未来的指引却非常糟糕。

Their sales and earnings both came in a little higher than expected, but the guidance was dismal.

本季度，管理层预计每股盈利76.81美分，而华尔街原本期待的是2.68美元。

For the current quarter, management expects to earn a dollar $76.81 when Wall Street was looking for $2.68.

这让他们大跌眼镜。

That hurt it.

全年来看，管理层下调了收入预测，还大幅削减了利润预期，这才是致命一击。

For the full year, management cut their revenue forecast and totally slashed their earnings forecast, and that's what killed it.

到底问题出在哪里？

What exactly is the problem here?

好吧。

Okay.

Lululemon的国际业务依然稳健。

Woo's international business is still holding up.

同店销售额增长了13%，按固定汇率计算也有8%。

Same store sales up 13% or 8% on a constant currency basis.

但美洲地区——他们最大也最重要的市场——同店销售额按固定汇率计算下降了5%到6%。

But The Americas, their largest and most important regions, saw same store sales down five or 6% on a constant currency basis.

Magic Express预计客户数量将继续下滑，本季度降幅为个位数中较低水平，全年则高达个位数高位，这对零售业来说简直是致命一击。

Magic Express sees the clients to continue, falling by a low double digit percentage in the current quarter, the kiss of death for retail, and by high single digit performance for the full year.

太糟糕了。

Awful.

不过还是希望他们能挺过来。

Hope they can do it, though.

以前这可是露露柠檬的根据地。

This used to be Lululemon's fortress.

现在北美市场拖垮了整个公司。

Now North America is dragging down the whole company.

我们之前还聊过逆风因素，比如关税对毛利率下滑的影响。

Imagine we talked about headwinds, the tariff impact on declining gross margins.

他们得重新激发产品活力，把还没做完的工作补上，才能重新点燃增长。

They need to strengthen the product energy and the work that they still need to do in order to reignite the growth.

他们还得加快整个新品开发的流程。

They also have to speed up their whole system of developing new clothes.

这种话，投资者本来就不想听，尤其是股价已经腰斩的公司。

That's not what investors wanna hear from a stock that already been cut in half.

现在 Athleta 也讲着同样的故事。

Now Athleta tells the same story.

Gap 整体表现还行，但 Athleta 始终是短板。

The Gap overall has been doing better, but Athleta remains the weak link.

在 Gap 最近一个季度里，Athleta 的净销售额下降了百分之十二。

In the the Gap's latest quarter, Athleta's net sales fell 12%.

同店销售额也跌了百分之十一。

Same store sales were down 11%.

太差了。

Awful.

上个季度，Athleta 的同店销售额就已经下降了百分之十。

In the previous quarter, Athleta's same store sales were down 10%.

Gap说他们正在重建这个品牌，下半年推出了全新的产品线，我想总比什么都不做强吧。

Gap says it's rebuilding the brand, launched a reimaged assortment in the second half, which I guess is better than doing nothing.

Athleta本来应该是增长型品牌，但现在看来，这更像是个长期翻身的工程。

Athleta was supposed to be a growth brand though, but now it seems like a long turnaround project.

在华尔街，我们可不喜欢这种项目。

We don't like those on Wall Street.

明白了。

Okay.

还有耐克。

Then there's then there's Nike.

它可不只是另一家服装公司。

Not just another apparel company.

耐克曾经是全球运转的机器，体育界最响亮的标志。

Nike used to be a global machine, the biggest logo in sports.

但就连耐克也遇到了同样的大问题：竞争激烈、产品老化、新品不足，消费者再也不愿为贴个勾勾就抬高价格的东西买单了。

But even Nike's been struggling with the same broader issues, competition, stale products, not enough freshers, and a consumer is no longer willing to pay up for anything with a swoosh of jacked up prices.

上个季度，耐克的收入按货币中性计算下降了3%。

In its last quarter, Nike's revenue was down 3% on a currency neutral basis.

耐克直营收入按货币中性计算下滑了7%。

Nike direct revenue fell 7% currency neutral.

耐克的线上业务下降了9%。

Nike digital was down 9%.

匡威的收入暴跌了35%。

Converse was down 35%.

这简直太糟糕了。

That's catastrophic.

他们的利润率，也就是毛利率，下降了130个基点，降到40.2%。

Their profit their gross margin fell a 130 basis points to 40.2%.

这可不是投资者当初爱上的那个耐克。

This is not the Nike investors fell in love with.

这也不是我认识的耐克。

It's not the Nike I knew.

我知道新上任的首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔正在努力扭转局面。

Now I know that Elliot Hill, the relatively new CEO is trying to turn things around.

我愿意给他一点时间，但转型总是比我们预期的要慢。

I'm give him a little chance here, but the turns turns take longer than we'd like.

这其中一部分原因在于运动休闲风的整体疲软。

And part of that is the overall weakness in athleisure.

这真是个令人沮丧的状况。

It is a depressing situation.

也许这一切本该早就显而易见了。

Maybe this all should have been obvious.

我们谈的是时尚，而时尚从来都在变。

We're talking about fashion here, and fashion always changes.

嗯，说起来。

Hey.

你看看维多利亚的秘密。

Look at Victoria's Secret.

五年前，他们看起来快要破产了。

Five years ago, they seemed in danger of going bankrupt.

花了点时间，但后来又火起来了。

Took a while, but eventually got hot again.

股价一路飙升，强势反弹。

The stock came roaring back.

现在的年轻消费者穿衣风格，和当年Lululemon崛起时千禧一代的穿法不一样了。

The younger consumer is not dressed in the same way millennials did when Lululemon was becoming a monster stock.

市场上的紧身休闲服饰太多了，实在泛滥了。

Market became oversaturated with light fitting ath light fitting I'm sorry, with tight fitting leisure wear.

如今年轻买家更喜欢穿牛仔裤和宽松款式的衣服。

And now younger shoppers wear different styles like denim and baggier clothes.

紧身裤和运动裤没消失，只是不再流行了。

Leggings and sweatpants didn't disappear, but they are out of style.

所以这不只是Lululemon的问题，也不只是运动品牌的问题，而是整个行业的问题。

That's why this is not just the Lululemon issue, an athletic issue, Nike issue.

疫情把需求提前透支了，竞争一下子爆发，定价越来越难，风格也变了，消费者变得更挑剔，那些曾经主导运动休闲风的品牌，现在看起来没那么特别了。

COVID pulled demand forward, competition exploded, pricing got harder, styles changed, consumers got more selective, and the companies that used to own the athleisure trend started to look a lot less special.

现在这个价位，Lululemon 明显比以前便宜多了。

Now at these levels, Lululemon is obviously a lot cheaper than it used to be.

股价目前大约是今年预期盈利的10倍，这在Lululemon的辉煌时期是根本不敢想的。

Stock now trades at about 10 times this year's earnings estimate, which is not something you could say about Lou Lemon in the glory days.

以前它股价动不动就是盈利的30倍，巅峰时期甚至更高。

It used to trade at more like 30 times earnings and even higher in its prime years.

增长能带来这种溢价，但没人愿意为没有增长的东西买单。

That's what growth can do for you, but nobody pays up for nongrowth.

与此同时，Athleta的母公司Gap估值更低，市盈率只有9倍。

Meanwhile, Gap, the parent of Athleta, is even lower, trading at nine times earnings.

另一方面，耐克的市盈率是24倍。

Nike, on the other hand, sells for 24 times earnings.

这个水平有点偏高了。

That's a little high.

这一点很重要，因为它的表现其实更好了。

That's important because it is doing better.

没错，长远来看，RULO 可能会变得有吸引力，前提是业务能稍微回暖，但目前还没见起色。

So, yes, eventually, RULO could get interesting and and if the business turns around a little bit, but it hasn't.

光便宜可不够，盈利预期还在下调，股价却像在往天上掉。

Cheap alone is not enough, and the estimates are still coming down, the stocks acting like a falling up.

我在这本书里花了大量篇幅讲什么是便宜、什么是真正的价值，就是不想让人误把价值陷阱当成了好机会。

I spent a huge amount of time talking about what's cheap and what's value in this book because I didn't want people to buy value traps as they call them.

其他公司也是一样。

Same goes for the rest of the group.

耐克要是能真正扭转局面，产品重新变得有吸引力，还是有戏的。

Nike can work if the turnaround becomes visible and the product feels strong again.

阿迪达斯要是能靠盖普重新打造产品线，也还有机会。

Athletic can work if Gap rebuilds the assortment.

但现在，证明自己的责任在他们身上。

But right now, the burden of proof is on them.

市场不会因为运动休闲袜以前卖得好，就继续给它奖励。

The market's not gonna reward athleisure socks just because they used to be great.

这年头讲究的是你最近干了啥，而最近这行业只会让你亏钱。

This is a what have you done for me lately kind of business, and lately this industry's only lost you money.

所以，在这个相当严峻的情况下，咱们来总结一下关键点。

So here's the bottom line in a very sobering situation.

Athleta可能还没彻底完蛋，但它恰恰是某种东西过时后的真实写照。

Athletesia may not be totally dead, but it's a technical example of what happens when something goes out of style.

这个品类从需求不足，变成了过度竞争。

Category went from underpenetrated to overcompetitive.

疫情期间，牛仔裤的需求被提前透支了。

The pandemic created a huge pull forward of denim, the of demand.

后来消费者变了，高端定价的能力也就没了。

Then the consumer changed, and the premium pricing power vanished.

Lululemon未来或许值得再看看，毕竟现在价格已经跌得够低了。

Lululemon might eventually be worth a look again because it's gotten so much cheaper.

但我猜这种情况在更低的层级也在发生，甚至可能低得多。

But I bet that happens at a lower level, maybe much lower.

目前，有太多更好的地方可以淘便宜货了。

For now, there are just a lot better places to go bargain hunting.

我得跟阿肯色州的约翰谈谈。

I need to speak to John in Arkansas.

约翰。

John.

太棒了。

Booyah.

向克莱默送上祝贺。

Happy cries to Cramer.

约翰，很高兴你上线了。

John great to have you on the line.

现在情况怎么样？

What's happening?

我担心的是No。

I'm worried about No.

你没必要担心麦当劳。

You don't need to worry about McDonald's.

麦当劳确实有个牛肉成本的问题。

McDonald's, it does have a beef issue.

牛肉太贵了，但回报率有2.6。

Beef is too expensive, but it yields 2.6.

它口碑很好，市盈率高达21倍。

It's got a great reputation and it sells at 21 times earnings.

股价有可能跌到18.90美元。

It can get down to $18.90.

这是你该怎么用美元操作的。

Here's what you do with dollars.

你买了100股。

You bought it by a 100 shares.

你以每股2.80美元买25股。

You buy 25 at $2.80.

顺便说一下，我最近就是这样操作我部分股票的。

This is what I'm doing, by the way, with some of my stocks in my.

我买得很少，价格也低得多。

I'm buying really small amounts, way down.

这样能摊低你的成本。

Get a better basis.

25股2.79美元，25股2.70美元，20股2.65美元，如果跌到2.60美元，再买50股，到时候你的成本就漂亮了，收益也会非常可观。

25 and $2.79, 25 and $2.70, 20 five and two sixty five, and then 50 with if it does get the $2.60, and then you'll have a great basis and you'll be doing just terrifically.

运动休闲风这个概念现在走下坡路了，我觉得市场上有更多值得投资的地方。

Look, the athleisure story has changed for the worse, and I think there are better places for you to put your money to work in this market.

后面还有更大的机会。

Much more money ahead.

标普指数不会把那些大型IPO公司纳入标普500指数，它们会放在其他指数里。

The S and P won't be adding the mega IPOs to the S and P 500 split these some other indices.

那这会不会改变投资者对指数基金的看法？

So could this change the way investors approach index funds?

我来跟你们说说我的立场。

I'm sharing where I come down.

分散投资总是有好处的。

Then it always pays to be diversified.

今天科技股暴跌，纳斯达克创下历史最大单日跌幅，这正好说明了为什么分散投资对你们这些散户来说至关重要。

And I'm using today's meltdown in the tech sector, worst point decline in Nasdaq history, to highlight just how important that lesson is for you home givers.

接下来，今晚的‘闪电复盘’环节将快速为大家梳理要点。

And what it calls rapid fire tonight's session of the Lighting Wrap.

继续关注克莱默。

So stay with Cramer.

昨晚，标普道琼斯指数公司宣布，与纳斯达克100不同，他们不会修改规则让即将上市的巨型IPO快速加入标普500。

Last night, S and P Dow Jones Indices announced that unlike the Nasdaq one hundred, they won't be changing the rules to allow for the upcoming mega IPOs to quickly join the S and P five hundred.

这其实我之前提过，现在我想详细跟你们捋一捋，因为这个决定彻底改变了SpaceX和后续那些巨型IPO的布局逻辑。

Now this is something I talked about before, and I wanna walk you through it because the announcement changes the calculus for SpaceX and the mega IPOs that will follow.

记住，我一直说，如果不够谨慎，供应量暴增会彻底打压牛市。

Remember, always said that a deluge of supply is gonna really kill the bull if we're not careful.

这正是整个故事的一部分。

This is part of the story.

记得吧，纳斯达克全球产业指数决定修改规则，让像SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI这样的巨头公司，在上市后能快速进入纳斯达克100指数。

Remember, Nasdaq Global Industries decided to change the rules to give giant companies like SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI that list on the Nasdaq early entry into the Nasdaq 100.

简单说，只要你的市值足够大，能排进指数前40名，上市后三周内就能加入指数。

Basically, if your market capitalization is big enough to be in top 40 of the index, you can join the index within three weeks of your IPO.

上周，管理着广为人知的罗素3000、2000和1000指数的富时罗素也跟进，推出了自己的快速入编机制。

Last week, FTSE Russell, which manages the well known Russell's 3,000, 2,000, and 1,000 indices followed suit, creating its own fast entry process.

他们这么做，就是为了给这三笔超级IPO腾出空间。

Again, they're making room for the three mega deals.

晨星和明晟早就设好了快速通道规则。

Morningstar and MSCI already had fast track rules in place.

标普道琼斯是最后一个没改的，很多人原本以为他们也会跟进，尤其是四月底公司刚表示正在考虑这件事的时候。

SMB was the last holdout, and a lot of people expected they do the same thing, especially after the company said they were considering it at the end of April.

但昨晚，SMB表示，他们不会做任何改变。

But last night, SMB said basically that that it's not gonna change anything.

这让很多人感到意外。

Did surprise a lot of people.

相反，他们坚持自己的原则。

Instead, they're standing on principle.

几个月前，当纳斯达克宣布规则调整时，许多持怀疑态度的人认为，他们这么做只是为了把SpaceX的上市从纽约证券交易所抢过来，从而更有力地争取Anthropic和OpenAI。

When Nasdaq announced its rule changes a few months ago, many cynical voices said they were just doing that in order to win the s the SpaceX listing from here, the New York Stock Exchange, and put themselves in a stronger position to get anthropic in OpenAI.

我认为这些说法大体上没错，但事情还有另一面。

I think the cities here are mostly right, but there's another side to the story.

正如纳斯达克首席经济学家菲尔·麦金托什昨晚在《每周做市商通讯》中指出的，主要指数应当真实反映市场状况。

As Nasdaq chief economist Phil McIntosh articulated in the weekly market maker's newsletter last night, the major indices are supposed to be representative of the market.

如果一家市值两万亿美元的公司上市，而你却把它拒之门外，那你就谈不上代表性了。

And if a $2,000,000,000,000 company comes public, well, you're not very representative.

你不能把它排除在指数之外。

You keep it out of the index.

不过，光是这个理由似乎还不足以说服标普，毕竟标普不像纳斯达克那样运营证券交易所。

Apparently, that argument alone was not enough though to convince the S and P, which crucially doesn't have a stock exchange to run unlike Nasdaq.

他们没必要去讨好SpaceX。

They have no reason to butter up SpaceX.

他们也不是在跟其他交易所抢上市资源，而且他们明确指出，这些规则的存在是有道理的。

They aren't trying to win a listing from another exchange, and they make that very point that these rules exist for a reason.

那这到底意味着什么？

So what does it mean?

这对你来说又意味着什么？

What does it mean for you?

首先，除了我们之前提到的那些情况之外。

First, I mean, other than what we saw earlier.

第一点是关于SpaceX本身的。

First was SpaceX specifically.

它得再等一年，才能加入标普500指数。

It needs to wait a year before it can join the S and P 500.

这意味着指数基金的被动买入会减少。

That means there'll be less forced buying from index funds.

之前我们以为他们会把观察期缩短到六个月，那样SpaceX大概能在十二月加入，正好赶上内部人士锁定期到期，而不是由这些买家推动股价。

Previously, we thought they'd shorten the seasoning period to six months, which would have let SpaceX in around December, right, when their first big lockup on insider expiration instead of selling these buyers.

现在我们知道，SpaceX最早也要到明年六月才能进入标普指数，所以锁定期到期更可能对股价造成压力。

Now we know SpaceX won't be in the S and P until next June at the earliest, so the lockup expirations are more likely to be to hurt the share price.

那是不是意味着明年夏天，当包括马斯克在内的所有内部人士锁定期完全到期时，我们会看到一波强制性的指数基金买入？

Does that mean we're looking at a bunch of forced index fund buying sometime next summer, right around when the full lockup on insider selling expires, including lockup on Elon Musk?

别急。

Not so fast.

标普500对新入成分股还有盈利要求。

The SBM fighter also has a profitability requirement for new entrants.

根据SpaceX招股书里的数据，公司在会计准则下的盈利距离达标还很远。

Based on the numbers in the SpaceX prospectus, the company's got a long way to go from GAAP profitability.

如果他们继续大力投资星舰火箭、星链卫星网络，最重要的是人工智能基础设施，公司短期内还是会继续亏损。

And if they plan to keep investing heavily in things like their Starship rocket program, Starlink satellite constellation, and most importantly, AI infrastructure, the company will keep losing money.

说实话，我也不知道SpaceX要多久才能实现连续十二个月的GAAP盈利，而这正是它加入标普500所必需的条件。

I honestly have no idea how long it'll take for SpaceX to achieve GAAP profitability over a trailing twelve month period, which is what they need to do to join the s p five hundred.

要求可真不少。

A lot of requirements there.

顺便说一句，Anthropic和OpenAI也是一样。

By the way, the same goes for Anthropic and OpenAI.

对整个股市来说，这里头的影响可不小。

For the broader stock market, there are some big time implications here.

首先，我们很可能会看到主要股票指数之间的差距进一步拉大。

For starters, we're likely to see an even larger divergence between the major equity indices.

这种现象我们每天都在经历。

This is something we already deal with every day.

比如今天市场大跌时，纳斯达克的表现就远比道指和标普差。

For example, in today's beatdown, the Nasdaq did much worse than Dow or the S and

500。

P five

一百。

hundred.

记住，很多人可能想用旧科技换新科技。

Remember, lots of people might want to sell like for like.

把老设备换成更前沿的技术。

Roaming their old tech for the more, I'd say, go must tech.

顺便说一句，这种现象到处都在发生。

And I think, by the way, that's happening everywhere.

这正是今天我们跌得这么惨的原因之一。

That's one of the reasons why we're down so much today.

我们常提到道琼斯工业平均指数，或者科技股占主导的纳斯达克——这么说其实更含蓄一些。

We often talk about the stay Dow Jones industrial average or the tech heavy Nasdaq, which is more of a subtle way of putting it.

本质上，道指风险较低、回报也较低，而纳斯达克风险更高、回报也更高。

Essentially, the Dow is a lower risk, lower reward index, and the Nasdaq is a higher risk, higher reward index.

这一点从数据上就能看得很清楚。

That's obvious from the numbers.

道琼斯指数今年迄今上涨了5.8%，但今天只跌了1.4%。

The Dow is up 5.8% year to date, but it's only down 1.4% today.

纳斯达克100指数今年迄今涨了140.7%，但今天暴跌了4.8%，简直惨不忍睹。

Nasdaq one hundred is up 140.7% year to date, but it was down a hideous 4.8% today.

卖出，卖出，赶紧卖出。

Sell, sell, sell.

标普500指数历来处于两者之间。

The S and P 500 historically falls somewhere in the middle.

它理论上代表了整个市场，但同时对科技股的敞口也很大。

It's technically is representative of the entire market, but at the same time, it has ton of tech exposure.

科技板块在标普500中的权重官方说是38.6%，但这还没算上亚马逊、特斯拉、谷歌和Meta这些公司。

The tech sector officially accounts for 38.6% of the S and P 500, but that's without counting Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta platforms.

前两家被归类为可选消费股，后两家则属于通信类股票。

The first two are considered consumer discretionary stocks, and the latter two are communications names.

把这些也算进去，标普500里科技股的比重就超过五成了。

Throw those in and the S and P is more than 50% tech.

但纳斯达克100指数调整了规则，为SpaceX等公司腾出空间，而标普500却保持不变，我觉得这意味着标普500以后会更像道琼斯工业平均指数。

But with the Nasdaq one hundred changing its rules to make room for SpaceX and its while the S and five hundred stays the same, I think that means the S and P will end up trading more like the Dow Jones industrial average.

它会成为一个风险更低、回报也更低的指数，相比纳斯达克100，这可能对年轻投资者特别有利——你现在投入一笔钱，人生还很长，未来很可能大有收获。

It'll be lower risk, lower reward index compared to the Nasdaq one hundred, which may be really good for younger investors than Nasdaq one hundred, which is gonna it's when you can spend let's say, you put some money in it now, you got your whole life ahead of you, could be a real, real win.

但即使是那些只想把钱放进指数基金、然后彻底不管的被动投资者，也得认真考虑该选哪个指数了。

But even for passive investors who just wanna park their money in an index and forget about it, they'll have to think harder about which index they wanna put the money in.

他们是想要高风险高回报的纳斯达克100——我建议年轻人选这个——还是更安全、回报可能较低的标普500——我建议年纪大一点的人选这个？

Do they want the higher risk reward indexes I for net like the Nasdaq, which I recommend for younger people, or the safer and potentially lower return S and P five hundred, which I recommend for people who are a little bit older?

如果你只是把钱放进指数基金，其实没必要追求高风险高回报。

If you're parking your money in an index fund, you don't necessarily want high risk, high reward.

只有年轻人才适合选这种高风险的。

Only younger people should choose that.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

昨晚，标普道琼斯打破了同行的做法，决定不修改规则，不让这些即将上市的巨头公司快速加入标普500。

Last night, S and P Dow Jones broke from its index keeper brethren and elected not to change its rules to allow these upcoming mega IPOs to quickly join the S and five hundred.

这一决定可能导致这些股票在上市第一年甚至更长时间里表现稍差，因为它们还保留了盈利要求。

It's a move that could mean that these stocks do incrementally worse in their first year of trading or longer because they're also keeping the profitability requirement.

这意味着，即使你是被动型指数基金投资者，也得认真思考自己的风险偏好，毕竟纳斯达克100指数现在比以往更激进了，你该选哪个指数得重新掂量。

And it means that even if you're a passive index fund investor, you're gonna have to think a lot more about what your risk profile is, and thus which index you wanna be at now that the Nasdaq 100 will be even more turbocharged than ever.

广告结束后他们可能会回来。

They might be back after the break.

接下来，他是华尔街反应最快的人，我们要借助你们的帮助来考验他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

接下来进入闪电问答环节。

Bring on the lightning round next.

现在是

Is time

来聊聊闪电问答环节。

to talk to the Lightning Round.

闪电问答环节结束了。

Then the Lightning Round is over.

你准备好了吗，Ski？

Are you ready, ski?

爸爸，说吧。

Dad, tell

闪电问答结束了。

the Lightning is over.

在纽约。

In New York.

鲍勃。

Bob.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

这位首席执行官可能是你如果重启羞耻墙后的首位人选，我真希望你能这么做。

This CEO might be the first candidate for the wall of shame should you decide to bring it back, and I hope you do.

多年来我一直听你推荐的财报电话会议。

I listen to conference calls that you suggested over the years.

这位首席执行官早就放任自流了，只会找各种借口，十二年多没涨过股息。

This CEO seems to have checked out and offers nothing but excuses, hasn't raised the dividend in over twelve years.

我再重复一遍。

Let me repeat that.

十二年多都没涨过。

Hasn't raised it in over twelve years.

你一直支持他，可他偏偏上其他CNBC的节目，就是不上你的。

You've been a supporter of his, yet he chooses to go on other CNBC shows, but not yours.

也许你让他有点怕。

Maybe you intimidate him.

吉姆，星岛和巴里·斯特恩利希到底怎么了？

Jim, what on earth is wrong with Starwood and Barry Sternlich?

巴里人不错。

Barry's a good guy.

他手上有不少物业，都在一些不太理想的都市里，你知道的，都是商业地产。

It's got a lot of properties that are, you know, commercial real estate properties in cities that aren't that good.

但并不是他不愿意上我的节目。

But you know it's not that he doesn't come on my show.

我敢肯定，要是我打电话请他来，他一定会很礼貌、很感激，也很得体。

I'm sure if I called him and asked him to he's a very polite great grateful guy and graceful.

但说实话，这只股票表现一直不好。

But no it's not been a good stock.

我能说什么呢？

And what can I say?

我从来没推荐过它。

I have not been recommending it.

这已经是我能说的最好的话了。

That's the best thing I can say about it.

我们接一下来自俄勒冈的亚历克斯。

Let's go to Alex in Oregon.

亚历克斯。

Alex.

谢谢吉姆接我的电话。

Thanks Jim for taking my call.

当然，这家股票是从福蒂斯分拆出来的。

Of course, stock that spun off

大概一年前从福蒂斯分拆出来的。

from Fortis about a year ago.

他们刚公布了非常亮眼的季度业绩，不是那种回购操作。

They just had a great quarter, not some buyback.

他们业务覆盖航空航天、公用事业和半导体测试设备领域。

They operate in the aerospace utility and semiconductor testing equipment space.

我打电话是想聊聊阿里尔·拉利安特。

I'm calling about Ariel Ralliant.

这是一家不错的公司。

That is a good company.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

这股票涨得太猛了。

It's going parabolic.

股价涨得简直失控了。

The stock's going parabolic.

我得说，我们节目一直强调，现在别去追这种暴涨股。

And I've got to tell you, the show's dedicated idea of you don't seek parabolas right now.

千万别去追。

Just don't seek them.

要不你去看看萨姆·马萨诸塞的这家公司。

How about you go to Sam Massachusetts.

萨姆。

Sam.

吉姆这儿有个挺有意思的信息要告诉你。

Jim got an interesting one for you.

大家都知道博格华纳，主要是因为他们的定制电动驱动系统。

So everyone knows BorgWarner for the custom electric drivetrain.

你知道他们生产的发动机零部件吧

You know the engine components that they make

但这只股票现在涨得太猛了

but the stock is in a ten

今年突然爆发，是因为他们转型搞了燃气轮机。

year breakout and that's because of a pivot and a gas turbine.

考虑到他们即将生产的这些燃气轮机的需求，你怎么看博格华纳？

I'm curious what you think about BorgWarner given the need for these gas powered turbines that they're going to be.

这股票确实表现极佳，但说到底，它又是另一只暴涨股。

It's been an absolute winner, but again, it's it's another parabola stock.

现在是72，可能转眼就跌到60，那时候我们就得重新评估了。

So what will happen is it's a 72, it could be at 60 in a heartbeat and that's when we're gonna have to look at it.

我们连线一下佛罗里达的阳光。

Let's go to sunshine in Florida.

嗨，阳光。

Hey sunshine.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

我是来自佛罗里达的阳光。

This is sunshine from Florida.

我是一名教师。

I'm a school

同时是第二次来电的听众，晚上还做投资。

counselor, a second time caller and an investor by night.

在问问题之前，我想先谢谢你。

Before I ask my question, I just wanna thank you.

我最近读了你的新书《如何在任何市场中赚钱》，从中学到了很多。

I recently read your new book, how to make money in any market, and I've learned so much from you.

哦，老师，我真的很欣赏优秀的教育者。

Oh, counselor, I truly appreciate appreciate great teachers.

我已故的母亲是一位了不起的老师，而你也为无数投资者当过老师。

My late mother was an incredible teacher, and you've been one for countless investors.

哦，谢谢你。

Oh, thank you.

谢谢您，约翰。

Thank you, John.

不客气。

You're welcome.

我的问题是关于Reddit，股票代码RDDT。

My question is about Reddit, ticker RDDT.

您觉得这是买入、卖出，还是

Is it a buy, sell, or I

它。

it.

我喜欢这只股票。

I like it.

我觉得它确实有个非常独特的优势，但你不能一下子全买进，因为它的市盈率高达29倍。

I think it's got a very very good unique property but you can't buy it all at once because it sells at 29 times earnings.

谢谢你把我跟你妈妈相提并论。

Thank you for putting me in the league with your mom.

这真是太好了。

That is terrific.

要是有人在路上拦住我说，我读过你的书，里面全是干货。

I someone stopped me in the street and said you know I read your book it's filled with education.

没错，本来就是这样的。

That's what it was.

现在还是这样。

That's what it is.

你这本书也做到了。

And you got that too.

我真的很感激。

And I really appreciate it.

不过我们会慢慢买入Reddit，不会急着下手。

But we're going to buy Reddit very slowly not aggressively.

我得去一趟新泽西的杰瑞德。

I need to go to Jared New Jersey.

杰瑞德。

Jared.

嗨，吉姆，下午好。

Hey Jim good afternoon.

谢谢你接我电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

好的。

All right.

我有个问题想问你。

Got a question for you.

我正在构建一个高股息收益的投资组合。

I'm working towards building a high yield dividend portfolio.

我很喜欢 MLPs，比如能源转移之类的，但现在集中度太高了，得开始适当分散一下。

I love the MLPs, you know, energy transfer and so on, but too heavily concentrated, I need to start diversifying a little bit.

好的。

Okay.

我正在关注一家从事私人信贷的公司，目前交易价格比净资产价值低了大约20%。

A company I'm looking at in the private credit space, currently trading about 20% discount to net asset value.

它的股价刚刚突破五年来的高位。

It's trading slightly above its five year high.

年化收益率达到了11%。

Paids about 11% annual yield.

这家公司叫OBDC，也就是蓝猫资本公司。

Company is OBDC, Blue Owl Capital Corporation.

蓝猫资本。

Blue Owl Capital.

那是他们的业务发展公司，我得说清楚，这确实是他们的主营业务。

That's their well, I gotta tell you, it's their business development company.

我以前从没推荐过任何一家业务发展公司。

I've not recommended anybody's business development company.

我现在没法开始做这件事。

I can't start doing it now.

不好意思。

I'm sorry.

我不清楚他们持有哪些资产，也不想知道。

I don't know what they own and I don't want to.

这些投资有多糟糕，可见一斑。

That's how bad these things have been.

也许这次是个例外，但我可不想往狮子嘴里钻。

Maybe this is the exception, but I'm not gonna put my head in that lion's den.

好了，女士们，闪电环节到此结束。

And that, ladies and conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

没多久以前，我们还开过一次CBC投资俱乐部的会议。

Not that long ago, we had a CBC investing club meeting.

你记得我们每个月做的那个事吗？

You know, that monthly thing we do?

我一直在抱怨，那些糟糕的管理者总爱孤注一掷，只追最热门的东西。

I was lamenting that bad managers like to throw all caution to win and just go with whatever's really hot.

当时最火的，当然是数据中心。

What was hot, of course, was the data center.

那些股票啊，啥都能涨。

The stocks you know, can do anything.

它们支撑起了人工智能时代的发展。

It helps make the era of artificial intelligence work.

如果你全押在热门股上，短期确实能赚不少，但我从不这么做，因为我知道迟早会翻车。

Now you can make good money for a while if you go all in on what's hot, but I never do it because I know it'll eventually blow up in your face.

那可是痛苦之屋。

The house of pain.

所以我们投资俱乐部一直坚持分散投资。

That's why we run a diversified fund for the investing club.

只要你分散投资，总有些持仓会表现不佳，至少有些股票暂时没起色。

When you're diversified at any given moment, you're gonna own some losers though, or at least some stocks that aren't working.

当数据中心股票一路狂飙时，这些股票可能拖后腿，但一旦热门股遭遇暴跌，它们能让你不至于崩溃。

These stocks will lag while the data center roars, but they preserve your sanity when you get a tsunami like sell off in the hottest stocks out there.

现在，数据中心股票的抛售潮真的来了。

Well, the tsunami of data center selling is here.

今天我特别庆幸，当初没把慈善信托全押在数据中心上，而是坚持了分散配置。

And today's the day where I'm kinda patting myself on the back for keeping the charitable trust diversified, not going all in on the data center complex.

今天真是该感谢我们持有的强生股票。

That's today's the day when we're grateful for our Johnson and Johnson position.

新药业务利润相当可观。

Great new drug profits.

确实如此。

Yeah.

它的资产负债表是AAA级，比美国政府还稳健。

Triple a balance sheet better than United States.

今天真是宝洁在信托基金里表现亮眼的一天。

Today's the day that Procter and Gamble sure plays well in the trust.

没错。

Sure.

它没像我们希望的那样大放异彩，但这也说明不了什么新情况。

It's not like doing not doing as well as we'd like, but that means nothing new in this tape.

今天我要为自己坚持持有联邦快递货运这家新分拆公司感到骄傲，它有可能从一家普通的零担运输企业，成长为全球顶尖的运营商。

Today's the day when I'm proud that we held on to our FedEx Freight, the new spin off that could go from a decent less than truckload play into one of the best operators in the world.

我们根本不关心钱是哪家公司赚的。

Remember, we don't care what kind of company makes the money.

不一定要是数据中心这种赚钱的生意。

Doesn't have to be a data center moneymaker.

这是问题的另一面，明白吧。

The other side of the equation, alright.

咱们来聊聊抛物线吧。

Well, let's talk about parabolas.

我早就反复提醒过你们了，多到你们可能都听腻了，那些暴涨的股票最后会怎么样。

Now I have been warning you endlessly to the point you're probably sick about hearing about what happens to stocks that make parabolic moves.

如果股价几乎是直线上升，那迟早也会直线回落。

If it goes up practically in a straight line, then eventually it's gonna come down in a straight line.

实际上，它们跌起来往往比涨的时候快得多。

In fact, they tend to come down a lot faster than when they went up.

我知道会员们看到我们减持一些盈利股会觉得困惑，但我们别无选择。

I know club members get confused when we trim some of the winners, but we have no choice.

涨上去的，至少得跌得更快，甚至翻倍地跌。

What goes up must come down twice as fast, if not as faster.

所以如果你不趁早落袋为安——我管这叫‘小香肠’——那最后可能连本带利全吐回去。

So if you don't take something off the table, little schnitzel as I call it, well, you could give the whole thing back.

连续九周上涨之后，人就开始把一切当成理所当然了。

Now when you're up nine weeks straight, you start taking a lot of things for granted.

拿Arm Hole来说吧。

Take Arm Hole.

这是我们的心头好之一。

It's one of our favorite stocks.

它给旅行信托带来了巨额回报，我们曾在3.1美元时卖掉一部分，结果它又涨到了400。

Been a huge winner for the Travel Trust, so we sold some at $3.10, but then it went up to 400.

但我们后来失去了纪律，再也没做任何减仓。

We lost discipline though, and we didn't do any more selling.

这做法太蠢了。

That was bad.

就是这么简单。

Just plain and simple.

不是被迷住了，也不是被催眠了。

Mesmerized, hypnotized, no.

问题是我们一开始就没拿够足够的仓位。

We just didn't own enough of the arm to start with.

就算多卖一点，那点收益也微不足道。

It would be too small a matter if we sold more.

但今天ARM跌了超过12%，感觉真是挺关键的。

But it sure feels like it mattered today with arm down more than 12%.

我真希望自己当初直接清仓了。

I wish I had kicked it out altogether.

不过说实话，这波下跌太猛了，简直像是人为制造的。

I'll tell you though, the decline has been so heavy and almost to me artificial.

人们都在抛售这些股票，好凑钱投资SpaceX，可这时候再卖，可能已经晚了。就算他们觉得该卖，也可能得一直卖到所有大型云服务商都筹够钱为止，到时候市场会很难看。

People are dumping these stocks to raise money for make room for SpaceX that it might be too late to sell some of the stocks even if they think they're selling could go on until all the hyperscalers raise the money they need, and that's gonna make for an ugly tape.

我们得慢慢适应这种节奏。

We gotta get used to it.

大家要看得明白，吸取教训。

See the lessons clear, people.

你投资组合里的PNG和J、J类股票，能让你更安心地持有科技股。

The PNGs and the J and Js in your portfolio allow you to safely own the techs.

它们就像通行证一样。

They're kind of like permits.

但如果你在科技股涨得很多的时候还不拿一部分出来，我觉得你以后肯定会后悔。

But if you don't take something off the table of the techs when you're up big, I think you're gonna live to regret it.

我不是说我们在这波行情里把事情处理得有多完美，恰恰相反。

I'm not saying we handled this move perfectly from the trust, far from it.

我的意思是，尽管出现了抛售，我并不觉得懊恼。

I'm saying that despite this sell off, I'm not kicking myself.

我做了该做的事，这为我的旅行信托带来了回报，也希望对俱乐部的会员们同样有利。

I did what was right, and I it paid off for my travel trust, and hopefully, it paid off for club members alike.

正如我所说，总有一个牛市在某个地方等着你，我向你保证，我会马上在这档《Mid Money》节目里帮你找出来。

Like I said, there's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to start to find just for you right here on Mid Money.

我是吉姆·克雷默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

周一见。

See you Monday.

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点也可能出现在克雷默的电视、广播、网络或其他媒体平台上。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been by Cramer television, radio, internet or another medium.

请不要把吉姆·克拉默的任何观点当作具体的投资建议或操作策略，而应仅视作他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克拉默的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司并不保证这些信息的完整或准确，因此请勿以此为依据做决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会会议室将携手Fanatics Fest，共同呈现‘赛前策略’，探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新锐理念。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Board room join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

如需获取邀请，请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.