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7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest,带来重塑体育与娱乐未来的游戏策略与创新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
我的
My
目标很简单,就是帮你赚钱。
mission is simple, to make you money.
我在这里,是为了让所有投资者都能站在同一起跑线上。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市在等着你,我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
《疯狂金钱》现在开始。
Mad Money starts now.
你好。
Hey.
我是克莱默。
I'm Cramer.
欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Welcome to Mad Money.
欢迎来到克莱默世界。
Welcome to Cramerica.
除了朋友之外,我就是想赚点小钱。
Other than my friends, I'm just trying to make a little bit of money.
我的工作不只是逗你开心,更要教你东西。
My job is not just to entertain you, but to teach.
请拨打180743给我打电话。
So call me at 180743.
在推特上关注我,账号是Jim Cramer。
Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
真正的牛市总有领头羊,而这些领头羊都有出色的特点。
A real bull market has leaders, and those leaders have terrific characteristics.
它们赚了很多钱。
They make a lot of money.
这类公司数量有限,而且股票流通量也不多,因为这些公司一直在回购自家股票——这是它们能做的事。
There's a limited number of them, and there aren't too many shares around because these companies constantly buy those shares Something they can do.
为什么呢?
Why?
因为它们现金流充沛,资产负债表也非常健康。
Because they're spewing cash and have beautiful balance sheets.
就在几个月前,这几乎描述了所有大型科技股的情况。
As recently as a few months ago, that described pretty much all the mega cap tech stocks.
但现在我们得寻找新的领头羊了,因为科技股已经不再可靠。
But now we're searching for new leadership because tech can no longer be trusted.
这就是为什么今天会出现这样的行情:纳斯达克一整天大部分时间都深陷绿盘,直到下午晚些时候才反弹。
That's how you get a day like today where the Nasdaq spent most of the session deep in the red for a late afternoon rebound.
道琼斯指数最终上涨了86点。
Dow finished up 86 points.
标普500下跌了0.26%。
S and P declined point 26%.
但即使经过反弹,纳斯达克还是跌了0.97%。
But even after the rebound, the Nasdaq sunk point 97%.
你好好想想。
Just think about it.
自从2023年春天那场小型银行危机以来,科技股就一直是市场的领头羊。
Tech stocks have been the key leaders of this market ever since the mini bank crisis in the spring of twenty twenty three, ever since.
我们常常忘了,就是那时候‘七巨头’正式成型的。
We tend to forget, but that's when the magnificent 70 merged.
也就是从那时起,我们开始看到半导体领域的竞争。
That's when we began to see the semiconductors war.
企业软件也在这时飞速崛起。
It's when the enterprise software soared.
所有科技相关板块都带动了芯片制造商,它们一下子全冲上去了。
Everything tech saved the commodity chipmakers just took off.
它们具备完美的领导力,增长稳健,资产负债表出色,持续回购,还具有稀缺性价值。
They had perfect leadership qualities, good growth, fantastic balance sheet, steady buyback, scarcity value.
其他市场板块则显得迟缓而可疑,增长不稳定、时断时续。
The rest of the market seems sluggish and suspect with uncertain, inconsistent, episodic growth.
但我们现在所处的环境,已经大不相同了,对吧?
But now we're in a very different moment, aren't we?
科技股的稀缺性已经不复存在了。
There's there there's no longer scarcity of tech.
接下来将迎来有史以来规模最大的几轮IPO。
We have some of the biggest IPOs of all time coming.
首先是SpaceX,然后是Anthropic、OpenAI,还有Heading Up三号。
First, SpaceX, then Anthropic, OpenAI, Heading Up three.
如今唯一表现稳定的科技公司,反而是当年最差劲的那些基础半导体企业。
The only consistent techs are the ones that were the worst back then, the commodity semis.
和往常一样,它们今天强劲反弹,因为供应极度短缺,而热钱最爱的就是短缺。
As usual, they bounce back hard today because they are acute shortage, but hot money loves a shortage.
当年‘七巨头’风光无限的时候,大家都喜欢这些科技巨头赚得盆满钵满。
Back in the heydays of Magnificent Seven, everybody loved that these tech titans were immensely profitable.
但我们现在推崇的这三大新星——SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI,它们可是要亏掉天文数字的钱。
But the new big three that we revere, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, they'll lose a bazillions of dollars.
如果 SpaceX 想继续推进它的太空绿色计划,就得不断融资,一轮接一轮。
SpaceX will have to do multiple rounds of fundraising if the company's gonna keep paying for its green ambitions in space.
这没关系。
That's fine.
但这跟我们 2023 年喜欢科技股的方式完全不一样了。
But it's not what we liked about tech back in 2023.
另外两家,谁说得准呢?
The other two, who knows?
它们根本没工夫考虑盈利。
They don't have time for profits.
当年‘七巨头’的标志,就是坚如磐石的资产负债表。
The hallmark of the magnificent seven bulletproof balance sheets.
正因如此,他们才能大手笔回购股票。
That's what allowed them to have these robust buybacks.
他们的财务非常紧实。
They were tight.
很少出现连锁反应。
They tended not to cascade.
这些公司体量巨大,但市场上流通的股票却一直不多。
These were huge companies, but there wasn't ever a lot of stock for sale.
二级市场?开什么玩笑?
Secondaries, are you kidding me?
现在除了苹果和英伟达,其他公司几乎都撑得筋疲力尽。
Now with the exception of Apple and Nvidia, we have stretched balance sheets galore.
谷歌要是继续靠发新股来回购,说不定就成了七巨头里唯一需要融资的那一个。
Alphabet, if years of buying back stock issued stock, they might not be the only one of the seven that needs to raise money.
我甚至能说清楚,亚马逊、Meta、微软,可能都打算增发股票。
I could look, I can make a case that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, all might wanna sell some equity.
如果我来掌舵,说实话,我不确定。
If I were running the show, I don't know.
我可不想带着一把小刀去参加超大规模云服务商的枪战。
I don't wanna show up at a hyperscaler gunfight with a penknife.
大型科技公司还保有稀缺性价值吗?
Is there still scarcity value of the big tech?
不是在SpaceX之后,还有Anthropic和OpenAI这些公司。
And not after SpaceX, then anthropic, and opening.
我又去追了另一家。
I went after another another.
我们不太清楚后两家什么时候上市,但我觉得这些交易可能比我们想象的来得更快。
We don't really know when the latter two will come public, but I think those deals could happen sooner than we think.
他们需要资金。
They need the money.
彭博社说,AI领域的投资管道高达3.6万亿美元。
Bloomberg says there's a $3,600,000,000,000 AI pipeline.
这根本行不通。
That's just no good.
一点都行不通。
No good at all.
这里根本谈不上什么稀缺价值。
No scarcity value here whatsoever.
我一再强调,高利率确实会打压牛市,但真正能把牛市击垮的,是股票供应过剩。
I've said over and over and over again that that higher interest rates can can certainly hurt a bull market, but nothing kills a bull market like oversupply of stock.
我们马上就要看到竞争对手大量释放股票了。
We're about to have supply coming out of our peers.
情况糟到今天我甚至开始怀疑,SpaceX这笔交易能不能像我想的那样顺利。
It's so bad that today I found myself wondering if the SpaceX deal is even gonna work as well as I thought.
也许他们定价太高,直接对标英伟达,估值五万亿美元,结果一上市就一泻千里。
Maybe they open it too high as high as Nvidia, $5,000,000,000,000 valuation because of market orders, and then it goes to Hades in a handbag.
全是那些不懂行的人用市价单疯狂抛售,一股脑儿往外倒股票。
Just a gusher of stocks sold by losers who use market orders and are furiously dumping it because they didn't know what they're doing to begin with.
唯一还算有点好处的是,很多打算买SpaceX股票的人,以前都亏过钱,因为他们炒比特币和杠杆ETF。
The only saving grace, many of the people who are buying it, who who intend to buy SpaceX, well, they used to lose the money because they're in Bitcoin and levered ETFs.
对。
Yes.
都是冲着SpaceX这笔交易来的热钱。
It's the hot money that wants in on the SpaceX deal.
最糟糕的那种。
The worst kind.
顺便说一句,所有加密货币的图表,说实话,是我职业生涯里见过最差的之一。
Meanwhile, all the crypto charts, I gotta tell you, they are maybe among the worst I have ever seen in my career.
今天整个市场都崩了,尤其是企业软件板块。
Whole areas are overwhelmed today, especially the enterprise software space.
只要其中一家公司业绩稍有不及预期,情况就会恶化。
Once again, all that had to happen was for one of their number to disappoint.
又是SailPoint,一家没人听过的网络安全公司,但我们知道他们背了不少债。
It was SailPoint again, a cybersecurity company nobody ever heard of, but we know that they have debt.
我们知道他们找了托马斯·布拉沃。
We know they went to Toma Bravo.
我们知道那个领域的情况很糟。
We know that things are bad in that area.
你知道后来怎么样了吗?
And then you know what?
他们根本没上调预期。
They didn't raise their forekicks.
这才是真正发生的事。
That's what really happened.
这就像一记致命一击,迅速波及了整个板块。
The kiss of death that was extrapolated to the rest of the group.
SharePoint暴跌超过11%,ServiceNow跌了6%,Adobe也跌了3%。
SharePoint plunged over 11%, ServiceNow down 6%, Adobe down 3%.
可他们根本不是同一类业务。
And they're not even the same business.
Salesforce一路暴跌。
Salesforce all the way back down.
我们来看看。
Let's see.
供应过剩,资产负债表破败,Gunnar股东们,根本谈不上稀缺。
Too much supply, tattered balance sheets, Gunnar shareholders, no scarcity there.
和当初‘七巨头’被捧上神坛时完全相反。
Exact opposite of when the mag seven were anointed.
那我们当时是怎么说的?
And what led us to say?
这其实很简单。
Well, that's pretty simple.
有这么个名字,股价理应涨10%才对。
With a name like this, it's gotta be up 10%.
没错。
That's right.
JM Smucker
JM Smucker.
K
K.
这其实是个隐喻。
This is a little bit of a metaphor here.
这家公司卖宠物食品、咖啡、无皮三明治、花生酱、果酱,还有烤过的奶油蛋糕——对了,奶油蛋糕卖得不错。
It's a pastiche of pet food, coffee, uncrustables, peanut butter, fruit spreads, toasted Twinkies, by the way, Twinkies did well.
这家公司和其他类似企业,早就被人当成要完蛋了。
This company and others have been left for dead.
对吧?
Right?
它们被通货膨胀、健康担忧,还有GLP-1药物冲击得够呛。
Victims of rampant inflation, health concerns, GLP dash one.
但仔细想想,食品类股票其实有稀缺性,资产负债表也还算稳健,只是增长确实不快。
But when you think about it, the food stocks do have scarcity value and decent balance sheets, although not a lot of growth.
明白吧?
Okay?
这确实让它们吸引力下降了一些,显而易见。
And that it makes them a little less attractive, obviously.
其他几个板块,比如金融和医疗,比食品行业要好得多。
The other leadership groups are a little more palatable than me, financials and health care.
金融板块增长有限,但股价便宜,之前因为信贷担忧和利率下降被压得很低。
The former have limited growth, but their stocks are cheap, having beaten down by credit worries and lower rates.
信贷问题可能还存在,但利率未来会趋于稳定或上升,这对银行是好事。
Credit can still be an issue, but rates will be going stable or higher, and that's good for the banks.
医疗板块。
Health care.
找到了,就是这个。
Eureka, I found it.
这才是我们一直在找的领涨板块。
This is the leadership group that we've been looking for.
看看强生公司。
Take Johnson and Johnson.
它一直在剥离增长缓慢的业务,比如肯维尤消费产品部门和普通的骨科业务,专注发展增长迅速的药品板块。
It's been shedding slower growing divisions like Kenview, its consumer products business as well as its commodity orthopedic operations Focusing on fast growing drugs.
我喜欢这种做法。
I like that.
它手里的药品品种多得不得了。
It's got a ton of them.
它的资产负债表是AAA级,比美国政府还稳健。
It's got a triple a balance sheet better than the US government.
我很看好这些制药股。
I like the drug stocks here.
联合健康这家我也很喜欢。
I like The United Health here.
我看好所有这些公司,它们在生物科技领域不是随便做做,而是真正深耕其中。
I like all the companies that I think would just be even just not flabbing at biotech, but a lot of biotech.
我们还买了与住房相关的股票,因为二手房销售数据很强劲,是今年最好的一次。
We also saw buying housing related stocks because we got a strong existing home sales number, best of the year.
我不太看重这一块,但看到它有起色还是挺好的,哪怕最后可能又回落了。
I discount this group, but it's nice to see it as a pulse even if it goes like this in the end.
楼市好,影响的不只是房地产本身。
Good housing markets impact more than just housing.
不会吧。
No.
确实会。
They do.
对零售业也有帮助。
They help retail.
你注意到没?
Did you see that?
比如威廉姆森这样的公司。
I mean, like William Sonoma.
太棒了。
Terrific.
完全赞成。
Two thumbs up.
现在的买家明显预期接下来还会有多项利好的房地产数据。
Today's buyers are clearly anticipating multiple good housing numbers.
祝你好运。
Good luck.
我要是能像你这么乐观就好了。
I wish I could be that bullish.
这个周末,我为投资俱乐部的会员写了一篇文章,稍后会详细讲,里面提到我对市场的看法越来越悲观。
This weekend, I penned a piece for members of the investing club and talk about more of that later, saying that I grew increasingly negative about the market.
我一再强调过,我们得大幅减少买入,确实也做了不少抛售,因为我太担心股票供应会泛滥。
I've said over and over and over again that we'd have to cut back buying rather dramatically, and we did some serious selling because I'm so worried about this flood of stock supply.
供过于求的唯一解决办法就是降价。
The only cure for too much supply is lower prices.
低到连公司都不想再卖股票了,对我们来说,其他所有东西都显得更有吸引力。
So low that companies don't want to sell stock anymore, and everything else seems attractive to you and me.
我们还没到那一步。
We are not there yet.
现在才刚进入供过于求的第二天,但这些交易不通过审核,我们啥也做不了。
We're only on day two of the period of oversupply, but there's not much that can be done until these deals get through the python.
还有一件怪事。
One last oddity.
很多科技公司上市,是因为急需资金来建设他们的数据中心网络。
Many of these tech companies are coming public because they need money to build out their data center networks.
有意思的是,唯一能从这些IPO中受益的回购公司,其实是英伟达,可它现在也跟其他股票一样惨遭抛售。
It's telling it the one company with a buyback that's cheap that will actually benefit from all these these IPOs is NVIDIA, and it is being slaughtered like everything else.
这才是该买的那个。
That's the one to buy.
等这波低迷过去,第一个反弹的肯定会是它。
That's the one that snaps back first out of this morass.
接下来是苹果公司。
And then the next one is Apple.
它的资产负债表依然非常强劲。
Still has balance sheet that's fantastic.
回购计划也还在继续。
Still has the buyback.
它依然有我们大家都喜欢的产品。
It still has products we all love.
哎呀,华尔街,别抱怨了。
Oh, Wall Street, stop complaining.
你们急着想捧着新理论当宝贝。
You can't wait to get your hands on the new theory.
闭嘴吧。
Shut up.
总之,别再谈什么margin了。
The bottom line, let's get off margin.
咱们别再瞎炒了,也别瞎猜了。
Let's stop the gunning and the speculating.
趁现在势头好,赶紧回笼一些资金。
Let's raise some cash in the strength.
你绝对不会后悔的。
You won't regret it.
来自西弗吉尼亚的谢莉。
Shelly in West Virginia.
谢莉。
Shelly.
嗨,吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
就像我上次上节目时说的,我们在西弗吉尼亚特别喜欢你。
As I mentioned last time I was on the show, we absolutely love you in West Virginia.
哦,谢谢。
Oh, thank you.
整个州。
The whole state.
整个州。
The whole state.
这太棒了。
That's fantastic.
我喜欢那个峡谷。
I like that gorge there.
我很高兴我去过那个峡谷。
I like that I've been to the gorge.
怎么回事?
What's going on?
奈飞最近没什么动静。
So Netflix is not moving much at all.
我想问的是,奈飞遇到的最大阻力有哪些?
And my question is, what has been some of Netflix's biggest headwinds?
另外,这股票是买进、卖出,还是持有?
And additionally, is it a buy, sell, or hold?
明白了。
Okay.
我想买Netflix的股票。
I wanna buy Netflix.
最大的阻力是他们曾经想收购华纳兄弟,结果大家都觉得他们根本搞不清自己在干嘛。
The biggest headwind is that they went and got involved with trying to buy the Warner Brothers studio, and everyone thinks, oh, they don't know what they're doing.
我觉得他们其实是利用了手里的选择权。
I think they took the optionality that they had.
他们认真讨论过这个问题。
They debated it.
最后做出决定,不买了,因为他们自己就能做得很好。
They made a decision, and they decided not to do it because they're gonna do fine.
我觉得回头一看,我会想,我当时是在股价跌了13%的时候买的。
I think we're look back and think, well, I bought it down 13%.
还不错。
Not bad.
谢谢。
Thank you.
西弗吉尼亚明显是给恋人准备的。
And West Virginia's clearly for lovers.
我们请加州的Vish连线。
Let's go to Vish in California, please.
Vish。
Vish.
你好。
Hi.
我是来自加州的Vish,第一次打电话进来。
This is Vish from California, first time caller.
太好了。
Excellent.
吉姆,你觉得博通的财报怎么样?
Jim Jim, what did you think about Broadcom's earnings?
好吧。
Okay.
明白了。
Okay.
博通的财报表现不太好。
Broadcom's earnings were were not good.
我的信托基金亏了一大笔钱,我真的很难过。
And, my trust lost a huge amount of money and I feel really badly about it.
这可能会让你重新考虑回来。
It can make you come back.
我希望里面还有买入的机会。
I hope there's some inside of buying.
他们的业绩确实没达到预期。
They did miss the numbers.
但如果你想知道Broadcom对我意味着什么,那简直像熬了一周的地狱。
But if you wanna ask what Broadcom was like for me, Broadcom was like a week at a hell.
我回到家,只说了一句:我搞砸了。
I got home and I just said, I screwed up.
我在Broadcom这件事上彻底搞砸了。
I screwed up on Broadcom.
这感觉就像1982年我在市场上犯错那时候一样。
It was just like 1982 when I got something wrong in the market.
什么都没变。
Nothing changed.
我不喜欢这种感觉。
I don't like that.
说到底,过剩供应的唯一解法就是降价,可惜我觉得现在还没到那一步。
Look, the only cure for too much supply is lower prices, and unfortunately, I don't think we're there yet.
今晚《疯狂金钱》节目中,美泰正在推出一项新计划,应对美国技术人才短缺的问题,我会从公司高层那里了解这个计划的详情。
On Mad Money tonight, Met is launching a new initiative to address the shortage of skilled workers in The US, and I'm learning more about the plan from the company's top brass.
接下来,我会和 Cloudflare 的首席执行官马修·普林斯聊聊,看看这家网络安全公司在今年五月大规模裁员后,如何应对人工智能时代带来的挑战。
Then I'm sitting down with the CEO of Cloudflare, Matthew Prince, to get an update on how the cybersecurity outfits navigating the AI era following its high profile round of layoffs in early May.
能源股涨幅超过 18%,是今年迄今表现最好的板块之一。
And then shares of energy up more than 18% as utility so far this year.
这种涨势还能持续下去吗?
Can it keep powering higher?
我会从这家公司的首席执行官那里,了解这是一家真正具有增长潜力的公用事业股。
I'm gonna get the latest from the company's CEO on a true growth stock that happens to be utility.
他叫大卫·克莱默。
It's David Cramer.
错过《Mad Money》的任何一分钟?
Miss a second of Mad Money.
关注 Jim Cramer 在 X 上的账号。
Follow at Jim Cramer on x.
有什么问题吗?
Have a question?
在X上给Cramer发推文。
Tweet Cramer.
使用标签 #MadMentions。
Hashtag Mad Mentions.
给Jim发邮件到 madmoney@CNBC.com,或者拨打180743联系我们。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
错过了什么吗?
Missed something?
前往 madmoney.cnbc.com 查看。
Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
7月18日星期四,CNBC Sports与Boardroom将亮相Fanatics Fest,探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
访问 cnbcevents.com/gameplan 申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
每当听说数据中心大规模建设带来的问题,总离不开电价上涨和水资源消耗这些说法。
Whenever you hear about the problems caused by the great data center build out, it's always that they push up the price of electricity or consume scarce resources like water.
但说实话,真正的问题是他们造成了技术工人的短缺。
But honestly, the real problem is they're causing a shortage in skilled labor.
如果没有几十万更多的光纤技术员、焊工、水管工和电工,我们根本不可能完成所有这些项目。
We're simply not gonna be able to complete all these projects without hundreds of thousands more fiber technicians, welders, plumbers, electricians.
我提起这个,是因为Meta Platforms刚刚宣布了一项新计划,与知名电视主持人迈克·罗共同发起‘美国劳动力学院’,这是美国历史上私营部门对技术职业最大的承诺。
I bring this up because Meta Platforms just announced a new initiative teaming up with legendary TV host Mike Rowe to launch America's Workforce Academy, the largest private sector commitment to the skilled trades in American history.
这本质上是一个带薪的职业培训项目。
It's basically a paid job training program.
该项目由Meta提供了1.15亿美元的启动资金,帮助人们获得从事这些工作所需的认证。
It started with a $115,000,000 in funding from Meta that will help people get the certificate they need to do these jobs.
这是新出现的。
This is new.
它不一样,而且在这个充满 cynicism 的时代,我觉得它出奇地积极有建设性。
It is different, and in a really cynical time in this country, I'm calling it refreshingly constructive.
今天早些时候,我有机会向Dina Powell McCormick和Mike Rowe了解了更多关于‘美国劳动力学院’的情况,前者担任Meta的总裁兼副主席,后者是MicroWorks基金会的首席执行官。
Earlier today, got the chance to learn more about America's Workforce Academy from Dina Powell McCormick, met as president and vice chairman, and Mike Rowe, CEO of MicroWorks Foundation.
你来看一下。
Take a look.
Dina 和 Mike,欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Dina and Mike, welcome to Mad Money.
谢谢您邀请我们,吉姆。
Thank you for having us, Jim.
很高兴能来参加。
Great to be had.
有你们两位在真是太好了。
It's terrific to have you guys.
吉姆,我想先从你开始。
Jim, I'd like to start with you.
我想请你说明一下,美国劳动力学院要解决的是什么问题。
I want you to define the problem that America's Workforce Academy is addressing.
你们到底面临什么样的实际困难,又打算怎么克服?
What's the actual difficulty here that you're that I think you can conquer?
当然。
Sure.
我们在Meta这边已经为此努力一段时间了。
Well, we've been working on this for a while at Meta.
我们发现,关键是为美国人提供一条通道,让他们能真正参与到你每天都在谈的这场经济转型中来。
And what we really have seen is that it's so important to focus on giving Americans a pathway to be part of this economic transformation that you talk about every single day, Jim.
现在的问题是,从水管工、电工、焊工到光纤技术员,有成千上万的岗位空缺等着人填补。
The problem is that there are hundreds of thousands of open jobs that are needed to build America's infrastructure from plumbers to electricians to welders to fiber technicians.
同时,也有成千上万的美国人非常想从事这些工作。
And there are also hundreds of thousands of Americans who would love to be in those jobs.
但他们往往只能靠发工资过日子,勉强维持生计。
But they are often working paycheck to paycheck.
比如网约车司机、超市店员、服务员这些职业。
Uber drivers, grocery clerks, waitresses.
我上大学的时候,就是靠当服务员赚学费的。
I waitressed my way through college.
我知道那种为了凑齐那一周的工资而拼命工作的感觉。
I know what that's like to pay to be focused on just making sure you get the paycheck that week.
这样一来,你就根本不敢请假。
And that means you can afford to take time off work.
你付不起去学这些技能的培训费,更不敢赌上了培训却找不到工作。
You can't afford the training to get into these fields, and you can't afford to do it if you don't have a job at the end of it.
所以,美国劳动力学院就是为了消除这些障碍而设立的。
And so America's Workforce Academy is really meant to address those barriers.
完成这五周高强度的培训后,你就能直接上岗了。
When you graduate from this five week, very intensive program, you become job site ready.
你可以直接去建筑工地或基础设施现场工作,之后再根据需要专攻电力、光纤铺设、管道安装或焊接这些领域。
You can actually go on a construction and infrastructure site and, of course, after that, you've got to specialize in electricity, in fiber laying, in pipe laying, in weldership.
但我们发现,只要能让人先踏上工地,再给一个有保障的职位和认证,就能解决一个巨大的难题。
But what we saw is that if you can just get them on the job site and give them that credential with a guaranteed job, you really solve an enormous problem.
而这些人,目前根本没机会参与塑造美国在人工智能领域的领先地位。
And you have people that right now are not part of what is going to make America lead in AI.
我们还真是太需要这个了。
Boy, do we ever need it?
迈克,为什么没更多人去从事技术工种呢?
Mike, why aren't more people going into skilled trades?
有哪些障碍呢?
What are the barriers?
我一直在想,你做得比全国任何人都要好的一件事,就是尊严。
And what I'm trying to figure out here also is the something that you've done better than believe it's better than anyone in the country, dignity.
你一再强调,这些工作关乎尊严,我们希望每个人在这片土地上都能拥有这份尊严。
You have said over and over again, these jobs are about dignity, and we want people to have that in this country.
在我看来,有尊严的工作,最终是能造福他人而非仅仅惠及工作者的工作。
Dignified jobs, in my estimation, are jobs that ultimately bless somebody other than the worker.
对吧?
Right?
只要对国家整体或你所在的社区有积极影响,就是有尊严的工作。
Anything that has a positive impact on the country writ large or your own ZIP code is a dignified job.
这正是《脏活累活》节目的核心理念,也是我们最新计划的出发点。
That was the whole thesis of dirty jobs, and that's certainly the thesis that's behind this most recent initiative.
我个人觉得,吉姆,微工作更靠近漏斗的顶端。
I think personally, Jim, you know, microworks is closer to the top of the funnel.
我们面对的是那些偏见、刻板印象、谣言和误解,它们联手让整整一代孩子根本不愿意认真考虑技工职业。
We deal with stigmas, stereotypes, myths, misperceptions that, in my estimation, have conspired to keep a whole generation of kids from giving the trades an honest look.
过去二十年,我大部分时间都在努力破除这些误解,为真正存在的工作正名。
So I've spent most of the last twenty years trying to debunk some of those misperceptions and make a more persuasive case for the jobs that actually exist.
梅德正在做的,是帮助那些已经愿意接受但被经济障碍拦住的人。
What Med is doing is dealing with that cohort of people who are ready to be persuaded but have run into some kind of financial impediment.
她提出的方案完全免费。
There is zero cost to what she's proposing.
他们负责交通费用。
They pay for transportation.
他们负责餐饮费用。
They pay for food.
他们还承担你的培训费用。
They pay for your training.
你结业时,不仅拿到认证,还能 guaranteed 一份元宇宙内的工作。
When you leave, you have your credential and a guaranteed job within the metaverse.
但如果你打算离开元宇宙,也可以带着这份认证走人。
But if you wanna leave the metaverse, you go and you take your accreditation with you.
他们实际上彻底消除了以往所有阻碍人们入行的障碍。
So they've literally eliminated all of those roadblocks that have existed up until today.
这对劳动力市场意味着什么,现在还不好说。
So what this means for the workforce is anybody's guess.
我特别期待看到事情会怎么发展。
I can't wait to see how the needle moves.
但对你接下来要邀请的嘉宾们来说,这意味着标准已经提高了。
But what it also means for a lot of the guests that you're about to have on your program is that the bar has been set.
挑战书已经扔出来了。
The gauntlet has been thrown down.
我觉得,那些在财富500强里最具影响力、最重要的公司都会受到审视,大家都会好奇,你们打算怎么做来填补技能缺口?
And I think the biggest most consequential companies in the Fortune 500 are going to be looked at, and people are gonna wonder, what are you guys doing to close the skills gap?
没错。
Right.
而且他们的回答必须得让人信服。
And the answer better be persuasive.
嗯,我觉得康
Well, I think Can
我补充一点,吉姆,关于尊严这个问题。
I add to that, Jim, by just saying something about the the point on dignity?
我觉得我们在工地现场看到,人们希望美国能为他们所做的工作感到自豪。
I think that's something that we have seen on our job sites that people want to feel that America is proud of what they're doing.
如果你还记得的话,二战期间,美国人齐心协力,亲手建造了击败全球暴政的军备库。
And if you remember, during World War two, Americans came together to physically build the arsenal that defeated tyranny in the world.
而今天,这些在工地一线的美国英雄们,正在建设基础设施,帮助美国在这场关乎国家安全和经济安全的关键竞赛中获胜。
Well, today, those frontline American heroes on these job sites are building the infrastructure that's gonna help America win in this critical race for our country's national and economic security.
所以我觉得这份尊严感非常重要。
And so I think that dignity piece is important.
而且这确实是实实在在的。
It also is very real.
如果我们不真正让这些女性和男性进入这些领域并参与建设,美国就赢不了,人工智能也别想领先。
We're not gonna win, and American AI is not gonna lead if we don't actually build these sites with these women and men who are getting, into these fields.
让我们特别受鼓舞的是,你根本不需要大学文凭,甚至不需要高中文凭。
And I think the thing that's really inspiring to us is that you do not have to have not just a college diploma, you don't have to have a high school diploma.
只要通过这个认证,就能直接胜任现场工作。
You can actually get through this certification, become job site ready.
在如今人们对人工智能发展充满疑问的时候,这些劳动者没有被落下,这一点特别重要。
And I think it's really important in this time when there's a lot of questions about what's happening in AI that these are individuals that are not being left behind.
他们正在说,我们也希望他们相信,未来属于每一个人。
They are saying, and I think we're hoping that they believe that the future is for everyone.
对。
Yep.
我听你这么说,肯定有人觉得我太软了,对你不够严厉。
When I listen to you, I'm sure there are people who say that I'm being a soft boy here, that I'm not being tough enough on you.
但迈克,你知道有些问题根本不是共和党或民主党能定义的。
But Mike, you know, there are some issues that are not Republican, that are not Democrat.
有些问题,是属于美国的。
There's some issues that are American.
我当然可以挑刺,找漏洞。
I can try to poke holes in this.
但有时候,抱着怀疑一切的态度,并不值得。
But there are there are times when it's not doesn't pay to be cynical.
你觉得呢?
Wouldn't you wouldn't you agree?
我认为,一个失衡的团队,根本算不上团队。
I would say that an imbalanced workforce is not a workforce at all.
蓝领和白领,其实是同一枚硬币的两面。
Blue and white collar are two sides of the same coin.
我们之所以出现这么严重的技能缺口,部分原因在于过去四十年里,我们一直告诉整整一代孩子,大多数人最好的出路就是拿个四年制学位。
And part of the reason we have such a massive skills gap is that we've spent the last forty years telling a whole generation of kids that the best path for the most people comes with a four year degree.
你不觉得这会带来巨大的意外后果吗?尤其是当高中同时取消了木工、金工这类实践课的时候。
If don't you think that's gonna have a massive unintended consequence, especially when you take shop class out of high school at the same time.
我们刚才其实聊到过这个。
You know, we were talking earlier.
我可以很清楚地看到,眼下我们面临的许多根本性问题,都跟这个有关——比如高达1.79万亿美元的学生贷款债务,目前七百五十万个空缺职位,还有将近七百万身体健全却根本不参与劳动力的男性。
I I can draw a pretty straight line to a number of existential dramas right now that are plaguing us, including $1,790,000,000,000 in outstanding student debt, seven and a half million open jobs right now, and nearly 7,000,000 able-bodied men who are not engaged in the workforce.
他们既不工作,也不在找工作。
They're not working and they're not looking for work.
这种事在我们国家历史上从未发生过,至少在和平时期从来没有。
That's never happened in our country, not not in peacetime anyway.
现在有太多问题亟待解决,而且不可能用一刀切的通用办法来应对。
So there's a lot of stuff going on that's gonna require a solution, and it's not gonna be a cookie cutter broad based thing.
这需要像Meta这样的企业参与进来。
It's gonna involve companies like Meta.
这还得靠联邦政府参与。
It's gonna involve the feds.
关于这一点,后面再细说。
More on that later.
还得靠各个学区一起行动。
And it's gonna involve school districts.
你要重新定义什么是好工作,重新思考如何培训我们迫切需要的劳动力。
It's you're talking about redefining the definition of a good job and reimagining the way you train the labor for which we're in such desperate need.
说这件事需要像曼哈顿计划那样的规模,并不是夸张。
It's a it it it's it's not hyperbolic to invoke the Manhattan Project.
虽然我自己没经历过,但我读过大量相关资料。
And now I don't remember it, but I read all about it.
那是一场大规模的行动,而我们现在正面对下一个挑战。
It was a big And this and and we're looking at what's next.
这是一场万亿美元级别的基础设施建设。
It's a $10,000,000,000,000 infrastructure build out.
这事儿的分量可不轻。
The stakes are pretty high.
说实话,我希望这事儿还远没结束。
Well, look, I can't I I hope this is not the last we hear this.
纳迪娜知道我对小企业有多上心。
And Nadina knows how passionate I am about small business.
她也明白这背后意味着什么。
As she is and have what this can mean.
我希望大家都认同这一点。
I hope everybody's bought in.
我希望工会也参与进来。
I hope the unions are in.
我希望大型公用事业公司也加入。
I hope the the big utilities are in.
我们得让所有人都参与进来,因为这事不能小打小闹。
We need everybody in because it can't be small.
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这件事必须做大才能成功。
It has to be big in order to work.
我要感谢Meta公司的总裁、副主席迪娜·鲍威尔·麦考密克,还有Works基金会的首席执行官迈克·罗。
I wanna thank Meta Platform's president, vice chairman, Dina Powell McCormick, and Mike Rowe, Works Foundation CEO, Mike Rowe.
你们的支持真的非常重要。
Guys, it means a lot.
明白吗?
Okay?
现在是时候好好谈谈这件事了,不能只盯着季度业绩。
We this is it's time to talk about this, not just about the quarter.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
谢谢
Thank
谢谢你,吉姆。
you, Jim.
谢谢
Thank you
邀请我们来。
for having us.
当然。
Absolutely.
今天《疯狂金钱》节目就在那边。
Mad Money's back there today.
接下来,Cloudflare的首席执行官将加入克拉默的节目,阐述为什么尽管有传言称‘SASPocalypse’来临,公司股票仍值得买入。
Coming up, Cloudflare's CEO is joining Cramer to make the case why his company stock should be a buy despite the rumored sasspocalypse.
下一个。
Next.
7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与董事会频道将携手Fanatics Fest,带来‘赛前计划’,探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新颖理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
过去几周对Cloudflare来说真是跌宕起伏,这家公司主营互联网基础设施,同时在网络安全领域也有重要布局。
Well, it's been a whirlwind few weeks for Cloudflare, the Internet infrastructure play with a major cybersecurity business.
今年五月公司公布财报时,数据非常亮眼。
When the company reported in early May, the numbers were excellent.
那是个典型的超预期且上调指引的季度,但他们也宣布了大规模裁员,裁掉了大约20%的员工。
It was a textbook beat and raise quarter, but they also announced some big layoffs and managed to roughly 20% of the workforce.
这很令人遗憾,但当时不得不这么做。
It was done sadly, but they had to do it.
我马上跟你解释为什么。
And I'm gonna tell you why in a second.
股价一度暴跌,在连续三个交易日里跌了超过27%。
Stocks sold off hard, down over 27% in a three day losing streak every quarter.
但紧接着就强势反弹回来了。
Then it snapped right back.
我觉得,它根本没必要跌到那个地步。
I would argue it should never been down.
到了上周,Cloudflare 刚刚创下历史新高,但自从上周五开始的科技股抛售潮袭来,股价又跌了近15%,从高点回落了不少。
By last week, Cloudflare was setting the fresh all time highs with the but with the tech led sell off that started last Friday, it's now getting hit again, down almost 15% from its size.
这种波动真的很难跟得上。
This stuff is very hard to keep track of.
今天,Cloudflare 在纽约证券交易所举办了一场非常成功的投资者日活动。
Today, Cloudflare held a very successful Investor Day event here at the New York Stock Exchange.
虽然这没能挽救科技股今天整体惨淡的走势,但我还是想让你直接听听他们怎么说。
And while it wasn't enough to save the stock on a very tough day for tech, I want you to hear the story straight from the source.
我们来听听 Cloudflare 的联合创始人兼首席执行官马修·普林斯怎么说。
So let's check-in with Matthew Prince, the cofounder and CEO of Cloudflare.
他今天刚敲响了收盘钟。
He just rang the closing bell today.
普林斯先生,欢迎回来,恭喜您敲响收盘钟。
Mister Prince, welcome back, and congratulations for ringing the closing bell.
非常感谢,吉姆。
Thank you so much, Jim.
能来这里真的很棒。
It's great to be here.
好的。
Okay.
那说说长期投资的理由吧,短期波动咱们都懂,明天可能跌,周四又涨回来,没啥意思。
So give me the long term investment case because we can do this short term stuff, and it could be wrong tomorrow and right by Thursday.
讲讲长期逻辑。
Long term case.
我觉得长期来看,Cloudflare 正在打造支撑未来互联网的基础设施。
I think that the long term case is Cloudflare is building the infrastructure to power the future.
我们已经建好了一个可以持续扩展的平台。
We've built a platform that allows us to continue to scale.
现在看到互联网又开始复苏了。
What we're seeing is the Internet is growing again.
好多年没见了,现在又冒出大量新网站和新应用。
For the first time in years, new websites are being created, new applications.
但更重要的是,访问网站的流量实际上在增加,而这完全是人工智能推动的,Cloudflare 的平台正好能应对这种需求。
But even more importantly, there's actually more traffic going to the websites, and that's all being driven by AI, and Cloudflare is the power the platform that can keep up with that demand.
我注意到你说过,智能代理的流量增长得太快了,线上机器人流量第一次超过了人类流量。
Well, I saw you said agent traffic is growing so fast that the bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in that history.
你得给我们讲讲,这个趋势意味着什么,对 Cloudflare 来说又意味着什么。
I mean, you gotta tell us what that trend means and how and what it means for Cloudflare
特别是这一点。
in particular.
这种变化的速度远超我们的预期。
It's happening so much faster than we anticipated.
去年我还预测,机器人流量要到 2027 年底才会超过人类流量。
I predicted last year, it'd be the end of twenty twenty seven when bot traffic would exceed human traffic.
三个月前我把它更新到了 2027 年上半年,结果前几天就发现,实际上在 2026 年上半年就已经超过了。
I updated that three months ago to say that it's been the first half of twenty twenty seven, and just the other day, it actually crossed it in in the first half of twenty twenty six.
我们现在看到的是,智能代理正在大幅推高线上的流量。
What we're seeing is that agents just drive more traffic online.
你可以这么想:如果我自己在线买数码相机,可能会逛五个网站再做决定。
The way to think about it is if I'm shopping for a digital camera online, I might visit five websites and then pick one.
但如果有个智能代理帮我做,它可能会访问五千个网站,只为做出更明智的选择。
If I have an agent that's doing it, I might visit 5,000 different websites in order to make a much more informed decision.
这些智能代理需要强大的基础设施支持,而提供这个支持的公司就是Cloudflare。
Someone has to power the infrastructure to power those bots, and that company is Cloudflare.
天哪。
Wow.
这可是一笔巨大的生意。
Well, that's just a huge amount of business.
这也说明,如果一个人能掌控这么多事情,我们就得彻底改变工作方式了。
Now that also tells me that if one person's can in control of all those things, we have to change the way we do our work force.
公司里的运作模式也得跟着变。
Have to change what we do at our company.
我觉得你在这件事上眼光非常前瞻,裁员其实不是示弱,反而是明智之举。
I think you took a very forward approach to this, and it was not a sign of weakness when you lay people off.
但你刚才也提到了我们的人——开发人员、销售人员,还有那些衡量指标。
But you also talked about our people, builders, sellers, measures.
你能说说,为什么我们该预期这些效率工具会让我们公司不需要那么多人吗?从投资角度看怎么解释?
Can you lay out the investment case for why we should all be expecting that these force multipliers may mean that we don't need as many people at the company?
我觉得我们可能还是需要这么多人。
Well, I I think we might need just as many people.
只是可能换成不同的人了。
I think it might just be different people.
我回想起彼得·德鲁克,他写过不少商业领域的奠基性著作,他说企业里其实只有三类人。
And so I go back to Peter Drucker who wrote some of the seminal books on business, and Peter really described that there were three types of people at companies.
一类是做产品的人。
There were the people that built products.
一类是卖产品的人,剩下的全是其他杂事,他管这叫‘衡量’,比如做审计的人。
There are the people that sell the products, and then there's all the other stuff, which he described as measures, the people that do audits or Right.
还有收入确认,或者那些各种各样的后台工作。
Revenue recognition or all of those different things.
结果发现,我们需要大量的人来搞开发。
It turns out that we need a ton of people building.
如果一个工程师的效率提升了十倍,我会尽可能多地招工程师。
If I have an engineer that's now 10 times as productive, I'm gonna hire as many engineers as I can.
没错。
Right.
我们还需要人来卖这些产品。
We need people to sell those products.
毕竟,销售还是得靠人,而且因为我们提供的工具,我们的销售团队现在效率比以往都高。
Like, because people still are needed in order to sell it, and our salespeople are more productive than ever because of the tools that we provide them.
但衡量所有这些工作,AI其实特别擅长。
But measuring all of that work, turns out that's what AI is extremely good at.
我们在 Cloudflare 的经验是,很多不直接创造收入、不开发产品的职能,完全可以被工具取代。
And what we've seen at Cloudflare is that we can replace a lot of those functions that aren't generating revenue, aren't generating products with actual tools that do this.
我觉得,这将是未来商业的走向。
And I think this is gonna be the future of business.
多些创造者,多些销售,少些管控。
More builders, more sellers, fewer measures.
我觉得你是个先驱,因为你做了别人迟早都得做的事。
Well, I think that you are a pioneer in the sense that you did something that others will have to do.
因为你率先这么做了,所以大家反而觉得这是软弱的表现。
Somehow because you did it among the first.
可实际上,无论是文件还是财务数据,都看不出任何问题,反而处处显示公司很强劲。
It was regarded as weakness even as there was nothing in the documents, in the financials that indicate anything other than strength.
这到底是怎么回事?
What happened?
人们这才意识到,天啊,公司不仅没垮,反而比以前更强了,股价马上就反弹了?
People like realized, well, holy cow, the business is as good as ever, if not stronger, and the stock came right back?
我觉得大家终于明白,Cloudflare 的表现简直太出色了。
I I, you know, I think that people digested that Clefler is doing incredibly well.
对。
Right.
他们其实挺理智的。
And they were actually being very sensible.
我跟同行聊的时候,发现几乎所有财富500强里的科技圈人士都清楚自己迟早得这么做,也明白必须改变现状,但坦白说,他们现在都不急着做决定,因为想等别人先动手。
When I talk to peers, almost everyone in tech across the fortune 500 knows that they're going to have to do this, knows that they're going to have to change what's going on, but a lot of them are frankly not making the decision right now because they wanna wait for everyone else to do it.
我觉得这挺懦弱的。我觉得对即将被裁的员工来说,最仁慈的做法就是尽早做决定,这样团队成员才能有时间去找新工作。
I think that's cowardly because I think the kindest thing that you can do to an employee that you're gonna lay off is do make the decision as early as possible because those team members, were finding jobs.
但客户似乎打算利用这笔遣散费帮他们找工作。
But the client seems to give them I was gonna say use them for severance and finding jobs.
现在,有多少
Now how
这样的人
many of
你觉得?
those people have that you think?
难以置信,竟然有人
Incredibly, someone who is
在 Cloudflare 做中层管理的人,到了初创公司可能就是高级经理。
a middle manager at Cloudflare can be a senior manager at a startup.
现在找工作比将来要容易得多。
And it's much easier to find a job today than it will be in
你得记住,你以前跟我说过,那里大概是地球上最难找工作的地方之一。
second remember because you once told me how it's probably the hardest one of among the hardest places on earth to get a job.
没错。
That's right.
所以我以为,那些本来就有能力找到新工作的人,早一点行动会更有利。
So I figured that anyone who's who is prequalified to get other jobs so that they would get
他们会找到工作的。
jobs.
他们会找到工作的。
Jobs.
市场上正急着招这类人。
There's gonna be and people are clamoring to hire those people.
我们帮他们争取了非常优厚的离职补偿。
We're helping them make sure we gave one of the most generous severance packages.
我们真心希望这些人未来能顺利发展。
We wanna make sure that those people succeed.
他们都是非常优秀的人。
They're great people.
只是他们不再适合我们下一阶段云优先增长的需求。
They just are not the people that we needed for the next stage of cloud first growth.
我们所做的并不是裁员。
And what we're doing is not eliminating workforce.
未来我们会雇佣更多人,但会是完全不同的人选。
We're gonna have more people going forward, but those people are gonna be different.
他们会是做产品的团队。
They're gonna be people building products.
他们会是卖产品的人,这样我们才能真正推动Cloudflare实现更大的增长。
They're gonna be people selling those products, and that's gonna mean that we're gonna be able to actually just drive more and more growth across Cloudflare's.
这正是我们为股东们所追求的。
Well, that's what we wanted for shareholders.
现在我想聊聊Project Glasswing的背景,以及它向你揭示了什么。
Now I wanna talk about Project Glasswing mythos and what it showed you.
我知道你一直参与其中,试图摸索出该怎么做才对。
And the I I know you've been in on it to try to figure out the way that things should be done.
我觉得这个团队确实让我们挺紧张的。
I think that this outfit does scare us quite a bit.
是的。
Yep.
Anthropic让我忍不住想,等等,有点不对劲。
The Anthropic makes me feel like, well, wait a second.
随时都有可能,我的生活会突然出大问题。
At any given moment, something's gonna change badly in my life.
是不是有点太夸张了?
Too extreme?
你知道吧,我们几乎和所有大型AI公司都有合作。
You know, I think we've been partnered with almost all of the big AI companies.
OpenAI、Anthropic,都是我们的客户。
OpenAI, Anthropic, all customers of ours.
差不多80%的AI公司都是我们的客户,我们很早就接触到了Mythos,做了测试,确实非常出色。
Almost 80% of the AI companies are customers of ours, and we had access to Mythos very early on, tested it, and it's a pretty amazing thing.
它能发现其他工具根本发现不了的软件漏洞。
It's able to find new vulnerabilities in software unlike anything else.
我预测未来两年,网络安全公司会比以往任何时候都更忙。
And I would predict for the next two years, cybersecurity companies are gonna be busier than ever.
但好消息是,它帮我们打造了更安全的软件。
But the good news is that it's helping us build better software.
我给你举个例子。
I'll give you an example.
好的。
Okay.
在 Cloudflare,我们把模型训练成能分析我们遇到过的所有事件,包括那些大张旗鼓的公开事件,也包括那些悄无声息发生在后台的小问题。
At Cloudflare, we took models and we trained them on all the incidents we've ever had, the big public ones, but also the little quiet ones that happened behind the scenes.
我们给团队展示了一张图,上面的事件数量原本像往常一样上下波动,结果突然断崖式下跌。
And we showed a graph to our team where the incidents were kind of bouncing along like they normally were, and then they fell off a cliff.
我们其实搭建了系统,用来评估代码质量,主动寻找漏洞,正是这些系统发现了问题。
What happened was we actually built systems that measured how good our code was, that looked for vulnerabilities, that found that.
当我们启用这些系统后,我们的系统稳定性大幅提升。
And the incident that we turn those on, our reliability went up massively.
所以我觉得未来两年,所有网络安全公司的电话都会被打爆。
And so I think for the next two years, every cybersecurity company's phone's gonna be ringing off the off the off the hook.
但两年后,如果你在做应用安全这类业务,恐怕会越来越难做下去,因为我们写的软件会越来越安全。
But two years from now, I think, actually, if you're doing something like like application security, it's actually gonna get a lot harder for that to be a real business because we're gonna just write better software.
像 Cloudflare 这样的平台,能帮助我们写出更安全的软件,确保它们被顺利部署,全球都能用上,并且轻松扩展。
That's where the platform like Cloudflare that can build that better software, they can make sure this is deployed, they can make sure it's available everywhere in the world and can scale.
我觉得这才是我们业务真正的未来。
I think that's a real future for our business.
但说真的,你之前教我的那些超大规模云服务商,没你介入之前,他们就是啥都抓。
But listening up, the hyperscalers you taught me, until you got involved and started doing it, they were just scraping everything.
对。
Mhmm.
现在我发现,有些超大规模云服务商用的数据源质量,还不如我期望的高。
I now find some of the hyperscalers don't use high as higher quality sources I'd like.
没错。
Yep.
是不是因为那些更好的数据源都在用你的服务,他们没得选,只能退而求其次,用次一点的,或者付更多钱?
Is that because basically that a lot of the better sources use you and they have no choice but to default to not as good one or pay up.
或者多付钱。
Or pay up.
而且我
And I
我觉得未来互联网的商业模式会彻底不一样。
think that that's what's gonna happen is that the Internet is gonna have a different business model going forward.
我预测五年内,代理流量会增长十倍甚至百倍。
I would predict that in five years, we're gonna have 10, a 100 times more agent traffic, which is going on.
所以我们需要一种方式,来补偿像你这样的内容创作者,为你们生产的内容付费。
So we need some way to compensate content creators like you for the content that you're creating.
我们跟那些AI公司聊的时候,听到的说法是:如果能建立一个系统,让他们以极小的费用访问海量内容,他们全都愿意这么做。
And what we hear when we talk to the AI companies is if we can build a system where they pay, you know, maybe a small amount to access a piece of content, but a huge scale, that that's something that they're all willing to do.
未来五年,互联网会出现一种全新的商业模式,而Cloudflare将会处于这个模式的核心。
And so there's a new business model of the Internet that's gonna emerge over the next five years, and Cloudflare is gonna be at the center of
创造。
creating.
我
I
作为在这个行业干了多年的人,如果你没成功,最后可能只剩下两家公司。
think as someone who's been in this business for many, many years, if you don't succeed, there'll only be two papers.
连两家都未必有。
Not even two.
我的意思是,我都不确定这种模式真存在,毕竟得有个商业模型,而互联网的未来肯定不是靠广告驱动的。
I mean, I don't I'm I'm not even sure that that exists because you need some business model, and the future business model of the Internet is not gonna be driven by ads.
肯定不是我们现在理解的那种广告,因为机器人根本不会点广告,而未来的流量恰恰来自这些机器人。
There's certainly not ads like we think because bots don't click on ads, and bots are how we're gonna get all of this traffic.
所以我们得想出新的办法,就像当年谷歌发明了支撑互联网过去二十七年的商业模式一样。
So we have to come up with something different in the same way that Google invented the business model that's powered the last twenty seven years of the Internet.
Cloudflare 将会创造出支撑未来二十七年的商业模式。
Cloudflare's gonna invent the business model that powers the next twenty seven.
这么说的话,就会诞生一个新的产业,我觉得这对美国是好事。
Well, I that means that there'll be a business, and I think that's good for America.
没错。
That's right.
我们想要的,正是建国先贤们说过的——一个强大的新闻业。
We want a what we want we want what the founding father said, which is a strong press.
这是 Cloudflare 的联合创始人兼首席执行官马修·普林斯,他的股票别看短期涨跌。
That's Matthew Prince, co founder and CEO of Cloudflare with a stock that has been don't look at the ups and downs.
看看长期趋势,这前景简直太棒了。
Look at the longer term direction because it's pretty fabulous.
广告后,《疯狂金钱》继续回来。
Mad Money's back after the break.
接下来,克莱默将联系能源公司的首席执行官,了解他们如何应对数据中心的需求。
Coming up, Cramer's checking in with Energy's CEO to see how the company is handling the demand of data centers.
接下来。
Next.
多亏了数据中心的大规模建设。
Thanks to the great data center build out.
一些电力公司生意火爆。
Business is booming for some of the electric utilities.
总部位于新奥尔良的受监管电力公司Tech Energy,股价今年迄今上涨了18%,过去十二个月涨幅达32%,我们从我女儿上图兰大学起就一直推荐这只股票。
Tech Energy, a regulated electric utility based in New Orleans, with the stock that's up more than 18% year to date, 32% over the past twelve months, proud that we've been recommending it ever since my daughter went to Tulane.
今天公司举办了投资者日活动,管理层公布了若干积极的长期财务目标。
The company held its investor day today where management laid out some bullish long term financial targets.
这要部分归功于Meta在路易斯安那州东北部的大规模数据中心项目,还有其他几个大型项目。
Thanks in part to Meta's big data center project in Northeast Louisiana, but also some other big projects.
能源公司甚至制定了一项计划,让数据中心支付更高的电费,以此为普通用户争取更公平的电价。
Energy even came up with a plan for data centers to pay more for electricity in order to offer a fair deal to ratepayers.
得益于他们与这些行业巨头签订的电力服务协议,未来二十年内,他们能为客户节省高达70亿美元的费用。
Thanks to their electric service agreements with the heavy hitters, they should be able to deliver $7,000,000,000 worth of savings to their customers over the next two decades.
接下来,让我们请能源公司的董事长兼首席执行官德鲁·马什,深入了解一下情况。
So let's take a closer look with Drew Marsh, the chair and CEO of Energy to learn more.
马什先生,欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。
Mister Marsh, welcome back to Mad Money.
谢谢,吉姆。
Thanks, Jim.
我非常期待和您聊聊。
I'm super excited to talk.
鉴于你们刚刚出色的投资者日活动,我想问你一个问题。
So I'm gonna ask you something in light of your excellent analyst day.
你觉得公用事业公司应该被看作是稳健型股票,还是应该被视为能提供良好股息的长期增长型股票?
Do you think it's right that utilities are considered to be stayed solid, or should they be considered to be secular growth stocks that pay good dividends?
我们既是稳健增长型股票。
We're stayed solid growth stocks.
明白了。
Okay.
我明白了。
I'll take
我们两者都是。
We're both.
我们确实还在派发股息,也预计能提供稳定可预测的回报,而且现在的收益率比过去高多了。
You know, we have we certainly are still paying dividends, and we do predict you produce steady predictable returns, but they're a lot higher than they have been in the past.
你们确实有一项庞大的资本支出计划。
But you do have a gigantic capital plan.
我第一次看到这个增幅时,心里还嘀咕:他们真能负担得起这么多吗?
And I think when I first saw the increase, I said, gulp, are they gonna be able to afford all that?
是的。
Yes.
过去两年里,我们的资本支出翻了一番,达到了670亿美元。
So our capital plan has doubled in the last two years to $67,000,000,000.
确实不小。
It's pretty big.
但其中大部分都投入到了数据中心,以及为它们提供支持的基础设施上。
And but it's most of that is going to data centers and supporting the infrastructure needed for them.
正如你所说,我们也承担了应有的一部分份额。
And as you mentioned, we have our fair share plus pledge.
对。
Right.
所谓应有份额,就是指他们要在合同期内承担所有新增的基础设施成本。
The fair share part says that they are going to pay all of the incremental infrastructure costs during the life of their contract.
这些都是为了支持他们所需的投入。
This need to support them.
但额外的部分是,他们还承担了一部分固定成本。
Well But the plus part is that they are also covering some of the fixed costs.
也就是说,像运营开支和自然灾害带来的额外支出,这些原本都是我们现有客户在承担的。
So that means overhead costs and storm costs that our existing customers would have already been paying.
那七百亿中的很大一部分,就是来自这里,
That's where the $7,000,000,000 of that Well,
我觉得这真的非常重要。
I I mean, I think that's incredibly important.
而且,增长是好事。
Also, growth is good.
它能创造更多就业机会,让老百姓有饭吃,有医疗保障。
It allows more people to be put to work, food on the table, health care.
今天早些时候,我们请来了迈克·罗和吉娜·鲍威尔·麦科米克,聊了聊Meta的美国劳动力学院,他们计划投入115亿美元用于职业培训项目。
Earlier today, we had Mike Rowe and Gina Powell McCormick on to talk about Meta's America's Workforce Academy, and they're talking about funding a $115,000,000 for training program.
你们觉得会用到他们培训出来的人才吗?还是说现在的人手已经足够应付所有工作了?
Are you do you think you'll be able to use some of their people or you got enough people to do all your jobs right now?
不是。
No.
当然了。
Absolutely.
这种合作正是我们乐于参与的。
And that's the kind of thing we like to partner on.
没错。
Right.
它在推动职业培训项目的发展。
You know, it's creating a workforce development programs.
所以我们正和他们合作,同时也和AWS、谷歌等其他大型数据中心客户联手,共同推动本地区人才队伍建设。
And so we are partnering with them, and we're partnering with some of our other large data center customers like AWS and Google to find ways to continue to build the workforce in our region.
这可不只是数据中心的事。
Because it's not just data centers.
还有,你知道的,液化天然气终端、化工厂、钢铁厂等等。
It's also, as you know, LNG terminals, petrochemical facilities, steel mills.
外面对技术型劳动力的需求非常大。
There is a need for a lot of skilled labor out there.
你上次电话会议里提到,很多人对此很感兴趣,这让人挺安心的。
Well, in your last conference call, you talked about how reassuring a lot of people are interested.
我觉得他们不只是感兴趣。
I was thinking I I think they're more than interested.
我觉得路易斯安那州的人均建设工程量,可能比美国任何其他州都多。
I think you've got probably more construction going on in Louisiana per capita than any other state in the country.
你觉得这有可能吗?
You think that's possible?
我觉得有可能。
I do.
我确信就是这样。
I believe that is Yes.
好的。
Alright.
没错。
I do.
这建设规模真是惊人。
It's incredible, the amount of construction.
确实不错。
It is great.
我总是跟这些政客说,他们总觉得公用事业公司给他们开了不公平的价。
Now also, I always tell these politicians that you they think that the utilities give them bad deals.
你知道你该怎么做吗?
Well, you know what you should do?
试着去谈判。
Try negotiating.
你认为是不是很多人没明白,这其实是个互相妥协的过程?他们根本没意识到,为用户争取利益能做些什么,而你早就看出来了?
Do you think that there's just a lot of people who didn't understand that, look, it's a give and take process and they just didn't recognize what could be done on behalf of the ratepayers, but you saw it coming?
我觉得这得益于数据中心都希望成为好邻居。
Well, I think it helps that the data centers really wanna be good neighbors.
没错。
Right.
他们很在意自己的声誉。
They have reputations that they wanna protect.
没错。
Right.
他们也希望融入当地社区。
And they want to be part of the community.
他们愿意为社区做投资。
They want to invest in the community.
我觉得这特别有帮助。
I think that's really helpful.
像Meta、AWS和谷歌这样的公司都希望做个好邻居,上周我还见到了谷歌的露丝·波拉特。
So when you have companies like Meta, AWS, and Google wanting to be good neighbors, and and I saw Ruth Porat at Google last week.
是吗?
You did?
她人挺聪明的。
She and she She's pretty smart.
她非常聪明,每次亮相都在大力推广这个话题。
She is very smart, and she was very much promoting that that topic for Google at every stop.
这太好了。
That's terrific.
我们请她再来节目做客。
We tell her to come back on the show.
我很想见见她。
I would love to see her.
好的。
Alright.
接下来我想聊聊能源结构。
So I wanna talk about energy mix.
你多次提到,希望重新考虑增加核电。
You mentioned several times that you do want to revisit the idea of more nuke.
但我们知道核电成本很高,不过它很清洁。
But we know nuke's very expensive, but nuke is clean.
你已经拥有现成的核电设施了。
You already have an existing nuke footprint.
对。
Mhmm.
既然如此,为什么不直接在现有的核电站旁边新建呢?我猜这样在审批上会顺利很多。
Wouldn't it be behoove you not to just be saying, listen, we're gonna start putting some up right next to other nukes because I imagine you have an easier time getting them through the regulatory
确实如此。
We do.
我们确实有一些这样的地点,就像你提到的,我们在大湾核电站就有。
There are sites that we have, as you mentioned, in fact, at our Grand Gulf Nuclear Station.
我刚才想的就是这个。
That's what I was thinking.
我们已经拿到了核管理委员会的早期选址许可,相当于已经站在了起跑线上,为新建核电项目打好了基础。
There is an early site permit that we already have with the NRC that's, you know, basically starting on first base for towards building a new nuclear project.
但你知道,我们还得控制成本,以及由此带来的不确定性。
But, you know, we still need to manage the cost and the cost uncertainty associated with that.
我们是一家受监管的公用事业公司,没错。
We're a rate regular utility Right.
而且我们也清楚,建这个项目,哪怕不是全部,至少很大一部分动力来自数据中心。
And, you know, we know that building this is probably going to be in part if not completely driven by the data centers.
是的。
Yeah.
这必须如此,说实话,我都想问你,你开什么玩笑?
It has to be because frankly, I would say to you, are you kidding me?
你是全美天然气资源最丰富的州。
You're the best natural gas state in the union.
没错。
Right.
对。
Yeah.
我们确实如此。
We are.
德克萨斯和路易斯安那那边有大量的天然气涌出来。
There's a lot of natural gas, you know, coming out of Texas and in Louisiana.
管道四通八达,遍布各地。
There are pipelines going all over the place.
今天在我们的分析师日材料里,我们展示过一张图,详细标出了所有交叉的管道。
We had a map and our materials today for our Analyst Day that talked about all the intersecting pipelines.
在很多地方,我们的设施正好位于全国每日天然气供应量的10%流经的线路上。
At many points, are we are built you know, we have 10% of the nation's natural gas supply on a daily basis flowing right past particular
你有没有担心过?
Are you ever concerned?
我知道你们一直在忙LNG的事,但总有一天,我们会出口太多,或者天然气多到根本用不完,那时候该怎么办?
I know you have been doing all the work with the LNG that that there'll come a time when we're exporting too much or we're just so is it just so bountiful we shouldn't work?
某个时候,确实会。
At some point, yes.
但那还早着呢。
But that's way out in the future.
好的。
Alright.
很好。
Good.
最后,关于那个宏观交易本身。
And then then finally, just in terms of of the meta deal itself.
我们持有旅行信托的股票。
This is we own the stock for the travel trust.
你怎么做到让他们做得好,同时你自己也能受益呢?
How do you make it so they do well and you do well?
对我来说,你得找到一个平衡点,但我知道纳税人会说,听着,我不喜欢Meta。
Because it to me, you gotta find a balance, but I know the rate payers wanna say, listen, I don't like meta.
我想要尽可能多的钱。
I want as much money as possible.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我们得合作,这本来就是个伙伴关系。
Well, I mean, we had to it's a partnership.
而且,那些数据中心以及他们正在做的那些事,确实蕴含着巨大的经济价值。
And certainly, the data centers and the things that they are doing with that, there's a lot of economic value in all that.
我们会获得监管机构批准的回报,他们也清楚这一点。
We are gonna get a rate regulator return, and they know that.
所以,这个合作最棒的地方在于,我们可以坦诚相告:一切都在明处。
So, you know, the really great thing about the partnership is we can say, here's an open book.
我们打算做的每一件事,全都公开给你看。
This is everything that we're going to do.
所有信息一目了然。
You can see it all.
我们只是在这些基础上,再争取监管机构批准的合理回报。
All we're going to do is earn our rate regulator return on top of that.
这事儿就变得特别简单了。
It makes it really simple.
得说一句,德鲁,要是大家都像你这样,我其实挺喜欢很多公用事业公司的。
Well, have to tell you, Drew, If they were all like you, and I'm not I like a lot of utility.
大家都清楚我喜欢不少商人,但这种合情合理的做法,能让全国各地那些对流程不满的参议员明白:不是这样的。
Everyone knows I like so many business people, but this is the common sense thing that would make it so that senators from all over the country who are angry at the process would realize, no.
跟人讲道理。
Reason with people.
事情自然就能办成。
You'll get it done.
要是他们不愿跟您讲道理,那就去别的州吧。
And if they don't like if they don't reason with you, then go to another state.
我真希望我们能这么处理这事,既为用户着想,也为顾客着想。
I wish that were the way we approach this so that you do the best for ratepayers and you do the best for the customers.
这才应该是正确的做法。
That's how that should be.
这是安德鲁·马什,能源公司的董事长兼首席执行官。
That's Andrew Marsh, chair and CEO of Energy.
各位,如果要选一家公用事业公司,很难找到比ETR更靠谱的了。
Guys, if you want a utility, you can do a lot worse than ETR.
我们从2012年就开始看好它了。
It's one that we've liked since 2012.
就是这样。
There we go.
《疯狂金钱》节目现在回来继续。
Mad Money's back here for the break.
接下来是快速问答环节。
Lightning round next.
我们有吉姆。
We have Jim.
看看TRI这家公司。
Look at T R I.
华尔街把汤森路透当成传统出版商来定价,是不是完全搞错了?
Is Wall Street dead wrong for pricing Thompson Reuters like a legacy publisher?
我跟你说实话。
I'll tell you the truth.
华尔街做得挺到位的。
Wall Street great.
听我说。
Look.
我明白你为什么觉得华尔街错了,但问题是,这属于媒体行业,而媒体业已经被人工智能冲击得七零八落,我实在没法看好它。
I understand why you think the Wall Street is wrong, but the problem is is that this is media, and media has been decimated by all things AI and I can't get behind it.
这对我来说太难了。
It's just too hard for me.
我不想碰这个。
I don't wanna do it.
我们连线一下亚利桑那州的本。
Let's go to Ben in Arizona.
本。
Ben.
你好,吉姆。
Hi Jim.
谢谢你抽出时间接我电话,
Thanks for taking my call and
当然。
Of course.
感谢你为我们所做的一切。
Thanks for all you do for us out here.
哦,谢谢你。
Oh, thank you.
我很感激。
I appreciate it.
不客气。
You're welcome.
我有一只特别股票,你说我们都该持有一只特别股票。
I have a a spec stock, and you say we should all have a spec stock.
对。
Yep.
我这是用公司的钱在操作。
And I'm playing with the house's money.
这次就算打平了,说不定还能拿个奖金。
So this one's even, maybe a bonus.
这家公司叫Xeris,股票代码是XERS。
The company is called Xeris, symbol x e r s.
我知道,因为它是注射类药物相关的企业。
I know because it's injectables.
明白了。
Okay.
我恰好参与了一些其他事情,所以对它有所了解,那些我不能说,但我可以告诉你,这正是我希望你去做的。
Because I happen to be involved in some other stuff that I would realize about it and I don't talk about, but I will tell you this that's precisely what I want you to do.
这正是你需要的。
That's precisely what you need.
但其中有一个,就一个就够了,能解决你所有想追涨杀跌的冲动。不用什么双重三重杠杆,一个特选股票就足够,我就欣赏这种态度。
But one of them just one that takes care of all the Jonesing you're doing respectfully none of that double triple action leverages of just one spec will do it for you, and I like that attitude.
我们连线纽约的JJ。
Let's go to JJ in New York.
JJ。
JJ.
我有。
I do.
是的。
Yeah.
克拉默。
Cramer.
JJ,你说什么?
What am JJ?
一家军用无人机制造商,股票代码是 O N D S。
A military drone manufacturer on this symbol, o n d s.
是 DOS。
On DOS.
天哪。
Oh my god.
这哥们儿,这根本就是个网络迷因股。
This is a sir, this is a this is a meme stock.
就是个跟自主系统迷因挂钩的网络迷因股。
It it it's just a meme stock that it's about with the autonomous system meme.
我没法支持这种迷因股。
I can't get behind a meme stock.
这市场太糟了。
This market 's too horrible.
我的意思是,它能让你生不如死。
I mean it means I could rip your lungs out.
我可不想这种事情发生在我身上。
I'm not going to that happen to me.
咱们去纽约吧。
Let's go to join in New York.
朱利安。
Julian.
嘿,吉姆·克莱默。
Hey Jim Cramer.
我有点担心,真想上你的节目聊聊。
I'm afraid I'm and I want to grab me on the show.
我想听听你对Nebius集团的看法。
I want to know your thoughts on Nebius Group.
好的。
Okay.
在市场变糟之前,Nebius一直是我最看好的股票之一。
Until this market turned ugly, Nebius is one of my favorite stocks.
现在我得退一步了,因为整个市场的状况已经变了。
Now I gotta pull back because the facts of this entire market have changed.
现在它的走势不再适合拿 Nebius 做投机了。
It's no longer got the right coloration to be able to speculate on Nebius.
等它跌一跌,我们再看看。
Let that buddy come down, and then we'll take a look.
先让它跌一跌。
That let it come down.
现在我想连线德州的凯文。
Now I want to go to Kevin in Texas.
凯文。
Kevin.
是的,吉姆。
Oh yeah Jim.
我有个问题想问关于 Wickes 的。
I got a question about Wickes.
我想
I want to
知道这是否是。
know if it's a.
好的。
Okay.
我有个叫扎克的同事在楼上,他能复制威克斯的所有功能,但成本只有零头,还每件只收十美元。
I got a guy Zack upstairs and he can duplicate whatever Wickes does and he comes at a fraction of the cost and they charge $10 a thing.
开玩笑的。
Just kidding.
扎克的价值远高于威克斯。
And Zack Zack's worth a lot more than than Wickes.
行了。
All right.
我们来听听JD和扎克的,JD是谁,吉米·奇尔?
Let's go to JD and Zack on JD Who are Jimmy Chill.
谢谢你的真知灼见。
Thank you for your wisdom.
最近怎么样?
What's up.
我从每股10美元的时候就开始持有这只股票了。
I this stock since it was $10 a share.
今天收盘价是27.73美元,两周后就要公布财报了。
It closed today at $27.73 and has upcoming earnings in two weeks.
依你看,是该全仓卖出,等它涨到34美元再买回来吗?
In your opinion, sell a whole carnival and wait for $34
每股。
a share.
明白了。
Okay.
这对我来说挺纠结的,因为我挺看好 carnival 这家公司。
So this is very complicated for me because I like carnival.
市盈率虽然低,但我认为维京这家公司的股票值得长期持有。
It's low multiple, but I think Viking is the one you can sell home in.
我觉得未来五年都可以放心持有维京的股票。
I think come sell away with Viking for the next five years.
女士们,先生们,闪电轮到此结束。
And that ladies and conclusion of the lightning round.
闪电轮由嘉信理财冠名赞助。
The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
在我们结束又一个忙碌的日子之前,克莱默有一些最后的见解。
Coming up as we wrap up another busy day, Cramer has some final thoughts.
别错过他接下来的即兴点评。
Don't miss his no huddle, next.
嘿,吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
你的建议在我们家取得了非常好的效果。
Your mission has been very successful in our family.
我每周都会听好几遍你的节目,为了学习投资知识。
I listen to your show multiple times a week for investing knowledge.
我只是想说声谢谢。
I just wanna say thanks.
我特别喜欢你的节目。
I love your show.
谢谢你一直为投资者着想。
Thanks for always looking out for the world back.
非常感谢你为我成为更好的投资者所做的一切。
A huge thank you for all you've done to make me a better investor.
我得给克雷默打个电话,因为我做任何投资决定都离不开他。
I gotta call Cramer because I can't make a move without this guy.
我想帮助更多人成为更好的投资者。
I want to make people better investors.
如果他们能赚到钱,那就再好不过了。
If they make money, fantastic.
咱们开始干活吧。
Let's go to work.
你瞧。
Look.
任何看过我节目的人都知道,我不喜欢说消极的话。
Anyone who's ever seen me on air knows I dislike being negative.
但这个周末,我在花园里除草、在运河边钓鱼——这些本来是我放松的地方,可我满脑子想的都是:这市场真让人不爽。
Yet when I was weaning in the garden this weekend, when I was tossing a line in the canal, places of sanctuary for me, all I could think about was how I just didn't like this market.
这些地方本来是我刻意让自己放空、什么都不想的。
Now these are locations where I try to have no thoughts whatsoever.
我就听听贝多芬,除草的时候特别喜欢听第六交响曲,或者听听迪伦、尼尔·杨,有时候就安静地听蜜蜂嗡嗡飞过。
Just listen to some Beethoven, I like the six when I'm pulling the weeds, or Dylan or Neil Young, or maybe nothing but the bees when they swing around.
这对我特别有帮助。
That's great for me.
但这个周末,我就是特别烦躁。
This weekend though, oh, I was just ornery.
就当这个市场一直开着,专心盯着它。
Focus on this market as if they were open the whole time.
相信我,我妻子丽莎很清楚。
Believe me, my wife Lisa knew it.
周日我写那篇给CNBC投资俱乐部的评论时,她都躲着我。
She tried to stay away from me Sunday when I wrote that think piece I do for the CNBC investing club.
我改了四稿,每次都想把语气缓和一点,别那么尖锐。
I did four drafts, each time trying to be a little less caustic, a little more hedge.
我删掉了更多尖锐的措辞。
I I dropped less caving.
比如第一稿里,我说SpaceX会是一笔划时代的交易,但我等不了那么久。
For example, in the first draft, I talked about how SpaceX will be a deal for the ages, but I don't have time for the ages.
我希望在我们这一代人有生之年内就能回本。
I wanna return within the expected lifetime of my generation.
我想知道哪部科幻片最贴切地讲过移民火星、开采矿产,能帮我理清这些想法。
I wonder which sci fi movie best talked about colonizing on Mars, digging up the minerals so I could make more sense of the perspectives.
不过话说回来,怕又怎样呢?
Then again, fear, why bother?
我一直是Starlink的重度用户。
I'm a huge user of Starlink.
真的特别棒。
It's fantastic.
性价比最高,产品也最出色。
Best value, best product.
我喜欢埃隆·马斯克。
I like Elon Musk.
他早就说过了,短期内公司根本不可能盈利,所以我根本不在乎。
He's made it clear there's nothing near term that could make the company profitable, so I was decided fine.
喂。
Hey.
你知道吗?
You know what?
随遇而安吧。
Live and let live.
会好起来的。
It's gonna be okay.
那我怎么还觉得这么悲观呢?
So then why am I feeling bearish?
让我烦心的是好几件事混在一起,就像有只蚊子在后背正中间叮了一口。
What bothers me a combination of things, and they're like a mosquito bite square between my shoulder blades.
不管我怎么努力,就是够不着它。
No matter what I do, I can't seem to get to it.
首先,我看着比特币一路持续下跌。
First, I'm watching this relentless decline in Bitcoin.
我心里直嘀咕:天哪。
I'm saying to myself, holy cow.
我们得重视这个问题。
We gotta focus on this.
这个市场里头,投机行为一直这么多吗?
Is there ever a lot of speculation in this market?
比我原先想的还要多。
More than I realized.
比特币的图表简直差得离谱,难看得要命。
The charts for Bitcoin are so bad, so ugly.
我看这东西要大幅下跌,尤其是那些高杠杆的比特币持仓策略,可能再也像过去几年那样有效撑住价格了。
I can see this thing coming down big, especially since some highly levered Bitcoin stockpile like strategy might not be able to keep it propped up as effective as it's done over the last few years.
市场里头到处都是两倍、三倍杠杆的比特币ETF押注。
The leverage extends all these two and three times ETF bets in the market.
人们干嘛非得用这种东西?
Why the heck do people have to use this stuff?
太危险了。
It's so dangerous.
根本就不该允许它存在。
Should never have been allowed to begin with.
别再用杠杆了,大家。
Get off a leverage, people.
别再用保证金了。
Get off a margin.
还有这些IPO和增发股票。
Then there's all these IPOs and secondary offerings.
这才是真正的毒药。
That's the real poison.
你还没意识到吗?
It it hasn't dawned on you.
这里弥漫着一股浓浓的绝望气息。
There's a smell of desperation here that's truly rank.
SpaceX可能都算不上最糟的问题。
SpaceX might be the least of our problems.
居然有这么多散户被吸引进来,这可真不妙。
The fact that must invited a lot of retail in, that's terrific.
但我开始觉得,这些钱进来得太猛了,就像比特币那边疯狂抛售的钱一样。
But I'm beginning to think that a lot of that money is coming in too hot, like the money furiously being dumped out of Bitcoin.
我们都觉得SpaceX这笔交易肯定会大获成功。
We all assume the SpaceX deal will be fabulous.
但如果因为过度狂热,一堆市价单涌进来,股价一开盘就涨到五万亿美元呢?
But what if the stock opens at, say, $5,000,000,000,000 versus because of over enthusiasm and all those market orders coming in?
然后股价直接腰斩,就像大伙儿都知道的Cerebras那笔惨败的交易一样。
And then the stock is just cut in half, similar to the ill fated Cerebras deal that everyone knows was a bomb.
那些开盘时用市价单买入的人,全都亏得血本无归。
People who bought at the opening with market orders, they lost fortunes on that one.
你答应我,别对SpaceX也干同样的事。
Promise me you won't do the same thing with SpaceX.
你答应我。
Promise me.
如果SpaceX没按预期走,其他那些交易又会怎么样?
How will all these other deals go if SpaceX doesn't go perfectly?
我知道马斯克的业绩一直很好,但这次涉及的因素实在太多了。
Know Musk has a great track record, but there are an awful lot of moving parts here.
第三个问题是战争。
Third issue of the war.
总统的创始人说事情几天内就会缓和,诸如此类的话。
The president's founder saying that things will be winding down just a few days, whatever.
唯一确定的是,伊朗人似乎非常愿意继续打下去。
The only thing that's been certain though is that the Iranians seem pretty eager to keep fighting.
和平需要双方都愿意参与。
You need two sides of peace.
最后,我很好奇,OpenAI 和 Anthropic 当初是怎么在私募融资中估值飙升到那么高的?
Finally, I'm wondering how did OpenAI and Anthropic get up to these incredibly vaunted levels in the private fundraising rounds to begin with?
Anthropic 确实有实实在在的企业收入,增长得飞快,但 OpenAI 给我的感觉更像投机。
Anthropic is real enterprise revenue that's growing like a weed, but OpenAI feels a lot more speculative than me.
它们俩在私募市场上全靠空谈一路暴涨,结果却可能亏得血本无归。
They've both been going up so much on nothing in the private market, and they lose fortunes.
还是那些富人和公司,还有他们的跟班,互相抬高彼此的仓位,一路往上冲。
Just the same rich people and companies and their minions bidding up their own positions along with other fellow travelers up and up and up.
但他们从来没想过,私募市场和公开市场可能根本不一样。
The one thing they never thought of though is that the private markets could be different from the public markets.
等到那时候,公开市场可能已经没多少资金能让这些人脱身了。
And the public markets may not have enough money left to to let these people get out of their shares.
等我们真到那一步,可能已经亏掉太多钱了。
Maybe too much money will have been lost by the time we get there.
也许太多资金已经被押在其他投机性的股票、加密货币、期权和杠杆ETF上,整个体系再也撑不住这么大的交易了。
Maybe there's too much invested in many other speculative stocks and coins and options and leveraged ETFs, and the edifice can't handle any more deals of this size.
这些想法让我在运河边钓鱼时根本静不下心来。
These are the scenarios that interrupted my ability to cast in the middle of the canal.
尽管花园打理得干干净净,美得让人心醉,我还是觉得特别难受。
It made me miserable despite the beauty of a well weeded garden.
希望下周能好点,但经历了今天这种疯狂的一天,我真不敢抱太大指望。
I hope next week's better, but after Crazy Day Out today, I can't bet on it.
我说了,总会有另一个更活跃的市场。
Like I said, there's always a more market somewhere.
在《疯狂金钱》这里,炒作对你来说没问题。
Pumps are fine just for you here at Mad Money.
我是吉姆·克雷默。
I'm Jim Cramer.
明天见。
See you tomorrow.
吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见,不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场,这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.
您不应将克雷默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引,而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克雷默的观点基于他所认为可靠的信息,但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性,不应依赖这些信息做出决策。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看《疯狂金钱》的完整免责声明,请访问cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。
To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.
7月16日星期四,CNBC体育与Boardroom携手参与Fanatics Fest,探讨塑造体育未来的新理念和战略布局。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports plan.
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