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7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，带来重塑体育与娱乐未来的战略规划与创新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
我的目标很简单，就是帮你赚钱。
My mission is simple, to make you money.
我在这里，是为了让所有投资者都能站在同一起跑线上。
I'm here to level the playing field for all investors.
总有一个牛市在某个地方等着你，我保证帮你找到它。
There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it.
《疯狂金钱》现在开始。
Mad Money starts now.
嗨。
Hey.
我是克莱默。
I'm Cramer.
欢迎来到《疯狂金钱》。
Welcome to Mad Money.
欢迎来到克雷默的世界。
Welcome to Cramer.
我会帮我的朋友们分析。
I'll do my friends.
我就是想帮你赚点钱。
I'm just trying to make you some money.
我的工作不仅是娱乐，更要讲清楚、讲明白。
My job in terms of to entertain, but to explain and to educate.
请拨打180743和我联系。
So call me at 180743.
在推特上关注我，Jim Cramer。
Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
我正穿过交易所附近的大道，今天早上洛杉矶的约翰拦住了我。
So I'm crossing Broadway right near the exchange, and John from Los Angeles stops me this morning.
他想拍张合照。
He wants a selfie.
嘿。
Hey.
我总是忍不住要拍合照。
I'm a come always spill into a selfie.
要是不拍，我这节目早没了。
I wouldn't have a show if I didn't.
所以，我当然很乐意配合。
So, of course, I'm gracious.
拍完照，约翰还想问我个问题，就在这时，一辆啤酒运输车正倒车朝他撞过来。
After the selfie, John wanted to ask me a question even as a beer truck was backing up right into him.
我赶紧喊他往后退，救了他一命，然后他问我：克雷默先生，这市场是不是太泡沫了？
After I saved his life by telling him to move back, he asked me, isn't this market too frothy, mister Cramer?
我说：不是。
I said, no.
尽管道指当天上涨了10点，纳指也涨了0.9%，标普涨了0.38%，我们算有个不错的一天。
Even as we had a fairly good day with the Dow rising 10 points, as we gained point 38%, Nasdaq jumped point nine o percent.
但他却说：不对，吉姆，这感觉就像1999年。
But he said, uh-uh, Jim, it seems like 1999 to me.
我说我亲历过1999年，那时候成百上千家公司上市，连盈利都没有，还有无数公司在搭建根本跑不动的互联网。
I said I lived through 1999 with hundreds of companies coming public that had no earnings and a ton of companies building out an Internet that simply wouldn't play ball.
很多公司最后倒闭了，带走了上万亿美元，让整整一代投资者被套牢，从此再也没回来。
Many of those companies went under taking trillions of dollars with them, souring a whole generation of buyers who got blown out, never to return.
我跟他说，我现在没空跟你细讲。
I told him I didn't have time to explain.
那辆该死的啤酒车又在往后倒了。
And that dastardly beer truck was backing up into again.
真是危险。
Tight spot.
所以我让他先注意那辆啤酒车，今晚再给他更完整的答复。
So I told him to watch the beer truck and watch tonight for more complete answer.
那为什么这回不是1999年呢？
So why isn't this 1999 then?
首先，比较市场的时候，你得拿同样的东西来比。
First, when you compare markets, what you have to do is you have to make them apples to apples.
明白吗？
Okay?
就像我在《如何在任何市场赚钱》里说的，你要看指数或者个股的市盈率对比。
As I say in how to make money in any market, that means you're gonna compare the price to earnings multiple of the indices or individual stocks to each other.
市盈率高，说明股票贵，除非它的增长速度特别快，能撑得起这个估值，那样倒也说得通。
A high PE multiple means a stock's expensive, unless it also has an incredibly fast growth rate to justify the valuation, in which case that could be acceptable.
你还得看看当前的利率水平，因为这是衡量股市估值和无风险收益之间关系的一个好指标。
You also need to measure prevailing interest rates because that's a good proxy for comparing the price to earnings ratio and the value of stocks versus a risk free alternative.
我先说后一点，因为今天早上有个重磅数据——CPI出乎意料地好，八点半发布的。
Let me knock out the latter first because there's pertinent information from today, from this morning, thanks to a stunningly positive consumer price index reading we got, the eight thirty.
1999年底，也就是我认为市场严重高估的转折点，十年期国债的收益率是6.4%。
At the end of nineteen ninety nine, which was I regarded as the fulcrum of the overvaluation, the yield, what you got if you owned a bond, the yield of the ten year treasury stood at 6.4%.
我再重复一遍，因为现在没人这么说了。
I'm gonna repeat that because you don't hear that anymore.
6.4%。
6.4%.
现在才不到4.6%，这意味着我们眼下根本没有当年那么高的通胀。
It's now just under 4.6%, which means among other things, we simply don't have the inflation we had back then.
而当年的高通胀可是把标普500整体价格都推上去了。
Something that would inflate the value of the entire s p 500.
很多人老在担心4.6、4.5，可6.4才是股票真正的劲敌。
We hear so many bears fret about 4.6, 4.5, but 6.4 is a very much vicious vicious competitor to stocks.
所以单从无风险收益这个角度来说，现在的股票比当年有吸引力多了。
So that cuts to making stocks a lot more compelling now than they were then on the basis of that risk free alternative.
今天CPI数据出来远低于预期，降得挺漂亮。
As I mentioned, the CPI came in very light today, much cooler than expected, and rates dropped nicely.
我们知道油价最近跌了，但撑不了多久，毕竟总统的伊朗策略还在那儿摆着。
We know that there's a dip in gasoline, but that won't last because of the president's Iran strategy.
战争一重启，油价就又上去了。
With the war back on, oil's coming back up.
但服装、二手车、汽车保险和医疗费用都出现了令人欣慰的下降，这些项目之前一直居高不下、难以回落。
But we got welcome declines in apparel, used vehicles, auto insurance, and medical care, all of which have been high and sticky until now.
我们为什么要在意这个？
Why do we care about this?
因为只要通胀保持在温和水平，美联储就不太可能觉得有必要加息。
Because as long as inflation stays fairly tame, it's unlikely that the Federal Reserve will feel the need to or feel compelled to raise interest rates.
互联网泡沫时代末期，美联储可不是我们的盟友。
At the end of the .com era, the Fed was not our friend.
当时的主席艾伦·格林斯潘在1999年6月到2000年5月之间连续六次加息。
Then chairman Alan Greenspan hiked rates six times between June 1999 and May 2000.
没有一连串大幅加息，就不会有互联网泡沫破裂，而我们现在还远没到那一步。
You don't get a .com crash scenario without a series of tremendous rate hikes, and we simply aren't there yet.
新任美联储主席凯文·莫里斯今天发表了讲话，他听起来的意思是，只要CPI维持在当前水平，就不会收紧政策。
New Fed chair Kevin Morris spoke today, and he he didn't sound he's gonna tighten if the CPI stays at these levels.
我觉得这对股市来说是非常积极的信号。
I regard that as very bullish for stocks.
说到估值，我知道约翰在2000年崩盘前最担心的是，标普500的市盈率高达25倍。
In terms of valuation, what I know John was most concerned about going into 2000, the year of the dreaded decline, the S and P five hundred was trading at 25 times forward earnings.
现在标普500的市盈率是20倍。
Right now, the S and P trades at 20 times forward earnings.
记住，得拿同样的标准来比较。
Remember, apples to apples.
这差距可不小。
That's a big difference.
虽然20倍不算便宜，但跟2000年那种高得离谱的水平完全没法比。
And while 20 isn't exactly cheap, it's certainly not expensive like 2,000.
而且单看今天的数据，离1987年崩盘前那会儿29倍的市盈率还差得远。
And the day by itself, it's nowhere near the 29 times earnings we were seeing right before the crash of eighty seven.
那是股市历史上最糟糕的单日时刻。
That was the worst single day moment in the history of the stock market.
但真正能说明问题的，还得看普通股票的表现。
But the real tale of the tape comes from the difference in everyday stocks.
咱们来看几个例子。
So let's go over a couple.
那时候很多大盘股市盈率都高得离谱，简直上天了。
Many of the major stocks back then had high really high, sky high priced earnings multiples.
思科在99年的时候市值还是市场里最大的之一，市盈率高达95倍，尽管当时的盈利已经岌岌可危。
Cisco, one of the largest stocks in the markets by market capitalization back in '99, was selling at 95 times earnings, even as those earnings were on the verge
崩盘。
collapsing.
现在
Now
市盈率已经涨到27倍，而且盈利加速的迹象越来越明显。
it's at 27 times earnings and they are on the verge of accelerating.
我可以详细说说99年时股市估值有多高、泡沫有多严重。
I can go over chapter and verse how overvalued and frothy stocks were back in '99.
我知道，因为那时候我买了一家上市公司的股票，每股19美元，结果开盘就冲到了六十几美元。
I know because I bought a company I bought a company public back then at $19 a share, but the stock opened in the low sixties.
我当时冲着承销商大喊，说他们根本没管好这单生意，难怪开盘这么高。
I screamed holy hell to the underwriters that they failed to control the deal, and that's why it opened so high.
从第一天起，这股票就被炒得离谱地高。
And it made it ridiculously overvalued from day one.
但当时公众对互联网股票疯狂追捧，这种现象太普遍了。
But the public was so crazed for .com stocks that it was a common pattern.
那会儿有330家上市公司最后都失败了。
We had 330 stocks that came public and failed.
很多情况跟街上那些公司差不多。
Many in a similar fashion to the street.
幸好我们挺过来了。
Thank heavens we survived.
它们根本没有任何盈利。
They had no earnings.
有些情况是完全没有销售。
Some cases, no sales.
现在也是这样吗？
Is that the case now?
完全不是。
Not at all.
一点都不是。
Not one bit.
不如我们聊聊今天发生了什么。
Instead, let's talk about what happened today.
我想说说一些很普通的股票，它们便宜得惊人，很能代表当前市场。我跟这些公司的首席执行官聊过，他们自己都搞不懂，为啥股价涨得这么好。
I wanna talk about some plain vanilla stocks that are shockingly cheap, that represent this market well, that and when I spoke to the CEOs of these, they don't even get, like, what their stocks are doing selling so well.
先说个再普通不过的，花旗银行，人人都知道。
Let's start plain vanilla, Bank of America, which everyone knows.
今天，他们的营收增长了15%，资产管理费上涨了19%，投资银行业务增长了50%，全球银行业务净利润提升了20%，全球市场业务净利润飙升了72%，信贷质量更好，运营效率也大幅提升。
Today, I have important revenue growth of 15%, asset management fees up 19%, investment banking up 50%, global banking net income up 20%, global market net income up 72%, much better credit quality and efficiency.
那后来怎么样了？
And what happened?
股价上涨了1.88%，创下了历史新高。
The stock went up 1.88% to an all time high.
但花旗银行的股票市盈率只有明年预期收益的12倍。
Yet Bank of America stock sells for 12 times next year's earnings.
12倍。
12.
这正好说明，像约翰那样认为市场过热的人是错的。
Well, that's exhibit a against those like John who think froth predominates.
那高盛呢？
How about Goldman Sachs?
我们后面会详细聊，不过它净利润增长了78%，每股收益涨了92%，投行业务增长55%，固定收益、大宗商品和货币交易增长了32%。
We're gonna spend a lot of time on that later, but it had 78% net income growth, 92% earnings per share growth, 55% growth in investment banking, 32% growth in fixed income commodities and currency trading.
这些业绩数据在业内几乎前所未有，是公司历史上最好的表现。
These are all pretty unheard of when it comes to the stats of the business, best in the history of the firm.
但即使今天涨了9%，股价依然只相当于盈利的18倍。
Yet even after its 9% gain today, the stock sells for around 18 times earnings.
关于这个，我见过的最惊艳的业绩爆发，多年未见，而且绝对是我在非科技领域见过的最大一次爆发，等广告回来再细说。
More on that one, the best blowout I have seen in many years and certainly the biggest non tech blowout that I have ever seen when we come back from the break.
我真没想到还能这样。
I didn't know it was possible.
那摩根大通呢？
Or how about JPMorgan?
全球最大的银行。
Biggest bank in the world.
你听好了。
Get this.
它的债务收入是所有银行里最高的，收入增长最快，存款规模最大，股本回报率最高，资本回报最多，投资收入也远超其他主要银行，今天公布的这些数据全都刷新了纪录。
It had the highest debt income of all the banks, the highest revenue growth, the highest the largest deposit base, highest return on equity, largest capital return, and the highest investment revenues of all the major banks that was sport imported today.
这只股票曾在市场低迷时跌了6美元，结果收盘时反而涨了8.36美元，涨幅2.5%，创出历史新高。
The stock, which at one point in the gloom of this market was down $6, down $6, closed up $8.36 or 2.5% at all time high.
那六美元的下跌是在市场开盘前的事了。
The down $6 was before the market traded.
人们真是糊涂透顶。
People are such dopes.
那现在股价是多少倍市盈率？
But what does it trade at?
十五倍市盈率。
15 times earnings.
十五倍。
15.
低于市场平均水平。
Below the market multiple.
全球最好的银行。
Best bank in the world.
这怎么可能？
How the heck?
总之，这些股票便宜得离谱。
Anyway so these are ridiculously cheap.
简直疯狂。
They're insane.
你觉得这算泡沫吗？
And you think that's frothy?
哦，所以你是担心科技股？
Oh, so you're worried about tech then?
你觉得它们涨得太高了？
You think it's way too high?
你有没有注意到，上周五韩国半导体公司SK海力士在我们的市场融资了265亿美元？
Have you considered the $26,500,000,000 that SK Hynix, the Korean semiconductor company, raised last Friday in our markets?
如果我告诉你，就算今天股价暴涨了41%，
What if I told you that stock even after it skyrocketed $41 today?
这地方简直像天堂。
House of pleasure.
根据巴克莱今天首次覆盖的分析，股价还在追逐明年盈利的四倍。
Still chasing about four times next year's earnings according to analysts at Barclays initiated coverage today.
没错。
Yes.
便宜到这种地步。
It's that cheap.
根本不能说便宜。
It's downright not cheap.
简直便宜得离谱。
It's like ridiculous cheap.
我的意思是，你想想，比如说……
I mean, you could like I don't know.
Gemini 那个价位都算便宜了，按理说应该涨上去，或者至少……
Gemini did it cheap, and it should come up or maybe like, I don't know.
Claude 呢？
Claude?
挑拣有利信息吗？
Cherry picking?
你觉得我在这么做？
You think I'm doing that?
哈雷。
Harley.
美光科技，另一家炙手可热的芯片制造商，市盈率只有13.5倍。
Micron, another red hot commodity chipmaker trades at 13.5 times earnings.
森萨斯今年股价已经涨了643%，但市盈率才27倍，尽管它的盈利增长非常惊人。
Sandus, stocks up 643% this year already, but only sells at 27 times earnings even though it has stupendous earnings growth.
最后，在科技领域，我们来看看英伟达，全球市值最大的公司。
Finally, in tech world, let's consider Nvidia, the world's largest stock.
按某些指标来看，它的估值略高于市场平均水平。
It looks to be trading at slightly more than a market multiple by some measure.
目前主流的说法是，它明年市盈率在23倍左右。
23 times next year's earnings is the, one that's prevailing.
戴尔从日渐衰落的IBM手里抢了不少生意，这点待会儿再细说，目前它的市盈率是25倍。
Dell, taking a lot of business from a flagging IBM, more than that one later, trades at 25 times earnings.
我觉得这些估值也太低了。
And I think those estimates are way too low.
这些股票最终会比我们想象的便宜得多。
Those stocks are gonna turn out to be much cheaper than we think.
当然，也有些股票市盈率更高，或者根本没市盈率，比如SpaceX，这更多反映的是市场的预期。
Now there are plenty of stocks that do have higher multiples or no multiples like SpaceX, which you can call the perception of the market.
我知道SpaceX听起来有点像1999年的泡沫，但人家营收规模确实很大。
I know something like SpaceX can feel very 1999, but those guys have huge revenues.
而且我觉得，市场还寄托了大量期望。
And I think a lot of hope.
说到底。
Bottom line.
其实，我不该用‘期望’这个词。
Well, I shouldn't use the word hope.
很多人觉得，总有一天他们会赚大钱。
A lot of let's say they're gonna make a lot of money one day.
你觉得呢？
How about that?
总的来说，这个市场的特点就是，许多大型股票在各个行业里都定价低廉。
Bottom line, what typifies this market is the inexpensive nature of so many big cap stocks in so many sectors.
确实有些泡沫，但那些泡沫并不是我们交易或持有的标的。
There is some froth, but the froth does not represent what we trade, what we own.
它们只是格外显眼而已，别无他意。
It just stands out like a sore thumb and nothing more.
如果你喜欢用金丝雀作比喻，那我想说，这只金丝雀是在码头上，而不是在矿井里。
Or if you're into the canary metaphor, may I just say, this one's a canary, but it's at the wharf, not in the coal mine.
来自新泽西的尼克，尼克。
Nick in New Jersey, Nick.
你好，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
我关注波士顿科学，现在股价是一块。
I'm into Boston Scientific at one
或者两块。
or two.
那我现在该怎么办？
What should I do now?
尼克，你得等两个季度。
Nick, you've got to wait two quarters.
这是我的原则。
That's my rule.
尽管我喜欢医疗保健板块，但这次的业绩差得实在离谱。
That was one of the worst misses even though I like the health care sector.
我对医疗设备板块并不特别看好。
I don't particularly like the equipment sector.
很多这类股票表现都很差。
A lot of those stocks are doing badly.
Intuitive。
Intuitive.
得跟你说一下。
Gotta tell you.
Intuitive Surgical 和 Intuit，今天本来该好好讲讲这两家。
Intuitive Surgical and Intuit, that would have been a good piece to do today.
我正看着我的执行制片人雷吉娜·吉利根。
I'm looking at my executive producer Regina Gilligan.
早该讲讲 Intuit 和 Intuitive 的。
Should have done Intuit and Intuit.
如果你选了 Intuit，那就糟了。
How if you Intuit, it's bad.
如果你觉得可能还不错。
If you think maybe it's good.
也许有欺诈行为，但这跟我们持有的标的没关系。
There might be some fraud, but it doesn't represent what we own.
我跟你说啊，别让这事压得你喘不过气，也别让啤酒车撞上你。
I'm telling you to let's say, don't let it dominate, and don't let a beer truck hit you.
今晚我手头挺宽裕。
I'm having money tonight.
IBM 刚刚经历了有史以来最糟糕的一天。
IBM just had its worst day ever.
到底是什么让这家蓝色巨人跌得这么惨？
So what sent the big blue deep into the red?
我来拆解一下他们意外的盈利失望。
I'm breaking down the surprise earnings disappointment.
这一季里，有一家银行的表现远超其他同行。
Then one bank has been outperforming the others in earning season.
我来跟你说说，我对刚才提到的高盛那季财报到底怎么看。
I'm gonna tell you where I come down on what I just mentioned, that beautiful Goldman Sachs quarter.
你猜怎么着，Zoom。
And get this, Zoom.
它刚经历了多年来最好的增长。
It just had its best growth in years.
那现在是不是入手这家市盈率15倍的公司的好时机？
So is now the time to get a piece of this 15 times earnings company?
再说一遍，没有泡沫。
Again, no froth.
我刚跟首席执行官聊过。
I'm checking in with the CEO.
继续关注克拉默的节目。
So stay with Cramer.
别错过《疯狂金钱》的任何内容。
Don't miss a second of mad money.
在X上关注吉姆·克拉默。
Follow at Jim Cramer on x.
有什么问题吗？
Have a question?
给克雷默发推文。
Tweet Cramer.
使用标签 #MadMentions。
Hashtag mad mentions.
给 jim 发邮件至 madmoney@cnbc.com，或者拨打 180743 联系我们。
Send Jim an email to madmoney@CNBC.com, or give us a call at 180743.
错过什么了？
Missed something?
前往 madmoney.cnbc.com 查看。
Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
美国哪些州最适合做生意？
Which are America's top states for business?
获取完整数据和各州详细分析。
Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.
看看你的州表现如何。
See how your state measures up.
美国最适合经商的州。
America's top states for business.
立即前往 topstates.cnbc.com 查看完整榜单。
See the full list now at topstates.cnbc.com.
今天早上本该聊聊银行的财报。
This morning was supposed to be about bank earnings.
五家大银行刚公布了业绩，结果IBM突然提前预警，业绩惨得不行，股价单日暴跌超过25%。
Five major banks reported, but then IBM preannounced some hideous numbers, and the stock got torn to pieces, down over 25% in a single session.
好吧。
Alright.
听我说。
Look.
我过去两年半一直看好IBM，可现在股价又回到了差不多两年前的水平。
I've been an optimist in IBM for two and a half years now, but the stock's back down to a level it first reached nearly two years ago.
所以我们得好好想想，到底出了什么问题。
So we have to ask what the heck happened.
首先，让我先说说背景。
First, let me set the scene.
没多久以前，IBM的软件业务正经历多年来的最佳增长，很大程度上是因为他们的软件对AI开发者来说非常实用。
Not long ago, IBM's software business was posting its best growth in ages, in large part because much of their software seemed very useful to AI developers.
同时，他们的咨询业务也势头强劲，帮助其他公司以合理成本利用人工智能。
At the same time, their consulting business was on fire as they helped other companies harness AI without spending fortunes.
一年多前，他们还推出了一款新的大型机，销量非常好。
A little over a year ago, they also launched a new mainframe model that was selling very well.
但今天，这一切都停滞了。
Today, that got derailed.
今天早上，IBM提前公布了全面低于预期的业绩数据。
This morning, IBM preannounced weaker than expected numbers pretty much across the board.
首席执行官阿尔温德·克里希纳解释说，由于IBM在第二季度正好赶上最新一代大型机的发布周年，基础设施业务面临非常严峻的同比对比。
CEO Arvind Krishna explained that because IBM was lapping the launch date of its latest generation mainframes in the second quarter, its infrastructure business was up against very tough comparisons.
但实际情况比预期更糟，主要原因是大型机及其配套软件的销售都出现了缺口。
But what played out was even worse than expected, driven by a shortfall in both mainframes and related software.
我们是这么理解的，我直接引述原文。
Here's how we put it, and I'm gonna quote.
六月的最后几周，客户们把本季度的资本支出转向了服务器、存储和内存的采购，提前囤货以应对预期的价格上涨。
In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly CapEx spend towards servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply constraint infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, end quote.
咱们平时总在说的那些科技硬件，现在全都供不应求。
Basically, there's all this tech hardware that's in short supply that we talk about all the time.
价格一路飙升。
Prices have soared.
所以公司们只能大幅削减数据中心以外的开支，来填补这部分成本。
So companies are spending a lot less outside of the data center in order to cover the cost.
他们的网络安全预算可不能砍。
They can't cut their cybersecurity budgets.
那太危险了。
That's too dangerous.
因此，所有不属于这些核心领域的支出都可能面临巨大压力，IBM也在其中。
So anything outside of these core areas could be in big trouble, and anything includes IBM.
现在，克里斯蒂安接手了Mist项目，这确实让人感到欣慰。
Now, Christian took ownership of the Mist, which was certainly nice to see.
他可不是那种对现实视而不见的CEO。
He's not one of those CEOs who's in denial about reality.
他知道IBM搞砸了，并且坦率地承认了这一点。
He knows IBM dropped the ball, and he admitted it.
接着，他提到了本季度一些有限的亮点，比如我最看好的业务——RedHat实现了两位数增长，收购的HashiCorp和Confluent表现强劲，分布式基础设施部门数据不错，咨询业务的签约量持续上升，还做了一些成本削减。
He then went on to note some of the limited highlights from the quarter, including double digit growth from my favorite business that they have, Red Hat, strong performance from its acquired businesses, HashiCorp and Confluent, good numbers from the distributed infrastructure division, continued growth in signings for the consulting business, and some cost cuts.
克里什纳还提到，公司推出了一项名为LightWell的新网络安全计划。
Krishna also noted that the company launched a new cybersecurity initiative called LightWell.
他对IBM的量子计算业务也说了些积极的话，这我之前已经跟你聊过很多次了。
And he had some positive things to say about IBM's quantum computing business as well that I have spoken to you about many times.
但当我们看到这些数据、读完克里什纳的解释后，立刻意识到：这正是我们过去几周一直在听闻的那个趋势，第一次有了实实在在的证据。
But when we saw these numbers and read Krishna's explanation, what instantly struck us is that this is the first tangible evidence of a trend that we've been hearing about for the past few weeks.
目前，负责企业IT预算的人不得不把支出集中到三个方向上。
Right now, the people in charge of corporate IT budgets are being forced to prioritize into three buckets of spending.
你们最好记下来，因为接下来这个财季，你们会听到越来越多这样的说法。
You wanna take these down if you can because you're gonna start hearing more and more of it this earnings court earnings season.
他们主要把钱花在网络安全、科技硬件和AI相关服务上。
They spend on cybersecurity, tech hardware, and AI tokens.
除此之外的其他开支，优先级都低得多，这也就解释了IBM为什么能交出这样的季度业绩。
Anything outside of these buckets is a much lower priority, which is how you get a quarter like this from IBM.
咱们一个一个来看，先说网络安全。
Let's take them one by one, starting with cybersecurity.
今年四月，Anthropic发布了他们的Mythos网络安全模型，六月正式上线，这个模型让成千上万家公司都吓了一跳，而且确实有道理。
Back in April, Anthropic released its Mythos cybersecurity model, which then fully launched in June, and this thing scared the heck out of most companies, thousands of companies, frankly, and it's for good reason.
Mythos，也就是公开版本叫Fable Five的这个模型，能发现以前任何人类或AI都做不到的安全漏洞。
Mythos or Fable five as the publicly accessible version of the model is called, has the ability to identify security vulnerabilities in a way that no human or a model has ever been able to before.
这证明了黑客一旦用上AI，真的能轻易攻破大多数企业网络，所以企业才不得不加大网络安全投入。
It's proof that hackers using AI can indeed tear through most of these corporate networks, hence the need for more cybersecurity spending.
那为什么CrowdStrike股价涨得这么多？
Why CrowdStrike was up so much?
说实话，这确实是个解决办法，不过我们这儿说的是IBM。
I'll tell you, that's one of that's the antidote, I think, but we're talking to IBM here.
第二个领域，硬件。
Second bucket, hardware.
过去一年，由于内存和存储价格暴涨，这一块的成本大幅上升。
This is a bucket that's become much more expensive over the past year because of the explosion in memory and data storage pricing.
这直接推高了美光、希捷、闪迪、西部数据、SK海力士这些公司的股价，今晚你也看到了，因为他们的产品供不应求，价格简直高得离谱。
That's caused huge gains in stocks of Micron, Seagate, SanDisk, Western Digital, SK Hynix, you saw that tonight, because their products are in very short supply to the point where they can charge insane prices for this stuff.
你要造电脑、手机、平板，更别提整个数据中心，都离不开这些东西。
And you need all this, to build a computer or a phone or a tablet, let alone an entire data center.
IBM明确表示，客户现在更愿意把钱花在这类硬件上，而不是他们的大型主机。
IBM explicitly said that customers were prioritizing this stuff over their mainframes.
大家都知道，这种短缺可能持续到2028年，价格还有可能继续上涨。
Everyone knows these shortages could last until 2028, which means prices could go ever higher.
所以大客户们现在都急着抢购，能囤多少就囤多少。
So big spenders are eager to lock in as much supply as possible right now.
所以几乎所有科技硬件都贵了不少。
So pretty much all tech hardware has gotten substantially more expensive.
而这可能才刚刚开始。
And this might just be the beginning.
对IBM来说可不是好事，这意味着IT预算里能花在IBM身上的钱更少了。
Bad news for IBM because it means there's less money left over in IT budgets for IBM.
最后，第三个有点难懂，就是AI代币，也就是企业更多地使用主流AI平台，这些平台大多转成了按使用量计费，代币就是基本计费单位。
Finally, third, little harder to understand, third bucket is AI tokens, which means more use of the leading AI platforms, which have mostly moved to a consumption based pricing model, with tokens being the basic unit of measure.
公司都不想在AI上掉队。
Companies don't wanna get left behind in AI.
对吧？
Right?
在AI时代，他们必须得跟上节奏。
In the AI era, they've got they gotta be present.
所以他们也愿意让员工自由地使用代币。
So they've been willing to let their employees use tokens liberally.
不管是用AI平台来完成一些实际工作，比如重写代码，还是只是拿AI来做实验，探索新的用法，这种情况都很常见。
Whether that means using AI platforms for some productive process, like the rewriting your software code or just experimenting with AI to try to find new ways to use it.
这种现象现在到处都能看到。
See a lot of that.
今年已经开始有人抱怨AI成本飙升了，所以未来某天可能会有人对令牌使用进行限制。
We've started to see griping about the ballooning cost of AI this year, so maybe there could be a crackdown on token usage at some point.
但目前来看，这类支出还是被允许的，甚至在某些情况下还受到支持。
But for now, that type of spending is being allowed, if not always encouraged.
当这三大类IT支出被如此优先对待时，会发生什么？
What happens when those three main buckets of IT spending get prioritized as they have been?
其他类型的支出就得往后排了。
Other types of spending need to be deprioritized.
对IBM来说，问题在于他们太多产品和服务都属于这些被边缘化的支出类别。
Unfortunately for IBM, they have too many products and services that fall into the other types of spending.
即使他们确实也有不错的AI故事，这一点我早就说过。
Even if they also have a decent overall AI narrative as I've been talking about for a long time.
所以，尽管IBM股价今天暴跌了25%，看起来确实比预期落差要夸张得多，但我没法建议你在低位买入，因为这种疲软很可能会长期持续。
So even though IBM stock plunged 25% today, which certainly seems excessive compared to the size of disappointment, I can't tell you to buy this stock in weakness because I think the weakness could very well be persistent.
对。
Sure.
现在股价确实挺便宜的。
The stock now is pretty cheap.
明白吧？
Okay?
当前股价大约是今年盈利预期的17倍，但这些预期很快就得下调。
It sells at around 17 times this year's earnings estimates, but those estimates will have to come down overnight.
是的。
Yes.
IBM的股息收益率又回到了3%以上。
IBM's dividend yield is back above the 3% level.
看着是不错，但光凭这个理由还不足以买入。
It's nice, but that's not a good enough reason to buy the stock.
我很欣赏克里斯蒂安对本季度业绩未达标主动承担责任的态度。
I like that Christian took ownership of the missed quarter.
他是个不错的人，也是位出色的管理者。
He's a good guy, good executive.
我觉得IBM依然有AI带来的利好，但这些今天全被市场忽略了。
And I think that IBM still has some AI tailwinds that were totally disregarded in today's beatdown.
但说实话，我对这些趋势太担忧了，不敢说跌到这一步就值得入手。
But frankly, I'm too worried about these trends to say that IBM is now safe to buy after this decline.
现在到了一年中，IT负责人开始规划2027年预算的时候了，你得相信我刚才说的那三个重点还会继续主导方向，这意味着其他所有领域都会很吃力。
We're at the point in the year where IT managers are putting together the budgets for 2027, and you have to assume that these three priorities that I just identified will continue to dominate, which means anything outside of them will still have a real problem.
我希望IBM只是遇到订单延迟，而不是被取消。
I hope that IBM truly is just seeing its deals get delayed and not canceled.
但我不能因为‘希望’某件事成真，就建议你去买一只股票。
But I can't tell you to buy a stock because I hope something is true.
在这里，希望不该成为决策的依据。
Hope should not be part of an equation here.
所以我直接说重点吧。
So let me give you the bottom line.
企业IT预算正被那些供不应求的硬件的天价压得喘不过气，留给IBM产品的钱自然就少了。
Corporate IT budgets are getting squeezed by sky high prices for all the hardware that's in short supply, which means less money to spend on stuff from IBM.
这就是现在的现实，我也不知道什么时候能好转，所以我没法推荐IBM，哪怕今天股价跌得这么惨。
That's the new reality, and I have no idea when it will change, which is why I can't recommend IBM, not even after today's severe decline.
广告之后回来继续。
That money is back after the break.
在今天各大银行财报主导的市场中，有一家的表现脱颖而出。
Coming up on a day dominated by big bank reports, one emerged head and shoulders above the rest.
克雷默接下来会解释是哪家。
Cramer's explaining which next.
哪些州是美国最适合做生意的地方。
Which are America's top states for business.
它们是
They're They're
最好的。
best.
今天，财报季正式拉开帷幕，各大银行纷纷公布季度业绩，我觉得全都表现得非常出色。
Today, earnings season kicked off in earnest with a parade of bank quarters, and I thought they were all terrific.
通常来说，财报季正式开始的第一天，我们只会看到三四家银行的业绩。
Typically, in the first real day of earning season, we get results from a few banks, usually three or maybe up to four.
但今天，据我记忆所及，首次在同一个早晨就收到了五家大型银行的财报。
But today, for the first time that I can recall, we got results from five major banks on a single morning.
这四家全国性商业银行都拥有庞大的投行业务，分别是摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行和花旗集团。
The first national the four the four national commercial banks with large investment banking businesses, and that's JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
我们还听到了高盛的业绩，它是顶尖的纯投行业务公司。
And we also heard from Goldman Sachs, the preeminent investment banking pure play.
唯一还没公布业绩的银行就是摩根士丹利。
The only one bank left has reported Morgan Stanley.
我们明天早上就会听到他们的消息。
We hear from them tomorrow morning.
说实话，这些银行的财报简直让我心跳加速。
Honestly, it feels like the banks are trying to give me a heart attack here.
正如我开头提到的，这些财报整体表现相当不错。
As I mentioned at the top of the show, these results were generally pretty good.
但其中有一家银行的业绩明显最亮眼，那就是我以前的雇主高盛——我本人还通过信托持有它的股票。
But one bank quarter was clearly the best of the bunch, and that's my former employer Goldman Sachs, which I happen to own for the travel trust.
高盛此前的预期已经非常高了，无论是分析师们的共识预测，还是股价在过去十二个月上涨了48%这个事实，都说明市场对它寄予厚望。
Expectations were very high for Goldman coming in, meaning both the literal consensus estimates from the analysts who cover the company and the general expectations reflected in fact that the stock was indeed up 48% over the last twelve months going into the quarter.
要让业绩再有突破，那得是惊人的表现才行。
You'd have to believe it's gonna be unbelievable to move the needle here.
说到底，大家都知道高盛的业绩会很强劲，毕竟这阵子IPO、债券发行和并购交易多得不得了。
Generally speaking, we all knew that Goldman's results would be strong because there's been a bonanza of IPOs and debt offerings and m and a transactions.
这些可都是投行的看家本领。
Those are the investment banks bread and butter.
尽管华尔街早就预期不错，但高盛还是大幅超出了预期。
But even though Wall Street had great expectations, the company still managed to surprise the upside in a major way.
再加上管理层在电话会议中讲了一个特别精彩的故事，难怪股价今天暴涨了94美元，涨幅9%，创出历史新高。
Throw in a fantastic story told by management on the conference call, and you can see why the stock shot up $94 or 9% today to another all time high.
这一季度的表现到底有多出色？
Just how great was this quarter?
我们先来看一下核心数据，简直非同寻常。
Let's start with the headline numbers, which were truly extraordinary.
本季度高盛的营收达到了203亿美元，同比增长39%，而且比预期高出40多亿美元。
Goldman generated $20,300,000,000 of revenue in the quarter, up 39% year over year and more than $4,000,000,000 ahead of its of expectations.
这超出预期的程度简直惊人。
That's an insane beat.
公司的效率比率，也就是支出占收入的百分比，数值越低越好。
The company's efficiency ratio, which is their expenses divided by revenues, giving you a percentage where lower is better.
好的。
Okay.
这一比率降到了57.4。
Lower came in at 57.4.
比前一年的63.4有所下降。
That's down from 63.4 the year before.
这种提升太惊人了，几乎不可能做到。
That is a staggering improvement, almost impossible to execute.
不用说，成本下降带来了惊人的利润。
Needless to say, decline in cost produced astonishing earnings.
高盛每股盈利20.98美元，比华尔街预期高出6美元多，几乎是前一年的两倍。
Goldman earned $20.98 per share, more than $6 higher than Wall Street was looking for, nearly double what they earned the year before.
今天早上我跟戴夫聊天的时候，心情挺低落的。
When I was speaking to Dave this morning, I was glummy.
怎么了，吉姆？
So what's the matter, Jim?
我说，我心情不好。
I said, I'm glum.
我不再在高盛工作了。
I don't work at Goldman Sachs anymore.
我的天，看看这些数字。
I mean, holy cow, with these numbers.
不管你用有形权益回报率还是权益回报率来衡量盈利能力，高盛的表现都远超预期，相比去年第二季度更是大幅跃升。
And whether you use return on tangible equity or return on equity as your preferred measure of profitability, Goldman came in well ahead of expectations and saw a huge jump from the second quarter of last year.
这些家伙，简直太厉害了，真让人佩服。
I mean, these guys, they're practically they're they're practically pretty, buddy.
高盛出色业绩的驱动力，是其投资银行和交易业务的强劲表现，高盛统称这部分为全球银行与市场业务。
The driver of Goldman's standout results was the stalwart investment banking in the sales and trading businesses, which Goldman collectively calls global banking and markets.
这一部门的收入达到155.2亿美元，同比增长53%，远超分析师预期的117.2亿美元。
That division had revenue of $15,520,000,000, up 53% year over year and well ahead of the 11,720,000,000 that the analysts were looking for.
这一部门内的所有细分领域都实现了显著增长。
Now all the subsegments within that division had substantial growth.
投资银行手续费同比增长55%，达到34亿美元。
Investment banking fees were up 55% year over year, three to up $3,400,000,000.
这都要归功于我们看到的大量并购、IPO、增发和债券发行。
Thanks to all the m and a, IPOs, secondary offering, debt offerings that we've seen.
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固定收益、货币和商品交易业务同比增长了32%。
Fixed income currency commodities trading grew 32% year over year.
这一成绩远超预期。
That beat expectations handily.
但最大的惊喜来自高盛的股票交易业务，其收入同比飙升了72%，达到74.2亿美元。
But the biggest upside surprise came from Goldman's equities trading operation, which grew an incredible 72% year over year to 7,420,000,000.
我真没想到它能有这么强的爆发力。
I never thought it could have that kind of firepower.
原本分析师只预计这一块的收入刚过50亿美元。
That unit was only expected to have just over 5,000,000,000 revenues.
与此同时，高盛较小的资产与财富管理业务也度过了一个非常出色的季度。
Meanwhile, Goldman's smaller asset and wealth management business also had a very good quarter.
收入同比增长20%，达到46亿美元，而分析师此前只预测了43亿美元。
Revenues up 20% year over year, 4,600,000,000, when the analysts were only looking for 4,300,000,000.
财富管理业务的管理费并没有增长20%，这反映了受托资产的增加；但该板块投资收入同比暴涨222%，无疑也大大助力了整体表现。
Asset and wealth management, you didn't have 20% growth in management fees, reflecting higher assets under supervision, but a 222 percent year over year surge in that segment's investments revenue certainly didn't hurt either.
这种表现极其重要，因为它不是偶然的。
This kind of performance is incredibly important because it is not episodic.
它不需要依赖大单交易。
It doesn't need big deals.
不管有没有并购，也不管是不是更多太空探索类的交易，它都能保持很高的毛利。
It's sticking with big gross margins regardless of m and a, regardless of whether they're more SpaceX deals.
在电话会议中，首席执行官大卫·所罗门解释说，公司之所以受益，是因为企业客户正寻求更大规模，以便更有效地投资和竞争。
Now when the conference call CEO David Solomon explained that his firm's benefiting as its corporate clients seek more scale to, quote, invest and compete more effectively.
这种对规模的追求，推动了交易量的显著增长——我们知道，今年上半年，大型企业并购活动增长了90%。
That desire for scale has driven a significant increase in deal making as we know with large cap corporate m and a up 90% through the first half of twenty twenty six.
他们确实分到了不小的一杯羹。
Boy, they've been getting their fair share.
此外，高盛还在受益于人工智能的兴起。
On top of that, Goldman's benefiting from the rise of artificial intelligence.
正如所罗门所说，人工智能的投资周期正在扩大资本需求，从核心技术扩展到基础设施、能源和数据中心，从而在各个行业引发连锁反应。
As Solomon said, quote, the AI investment cycle is expanding capital needs beyond core technology into infrastructure, energy, and data centers, generating a ripple effect across industries.
这为高盛创造了大量机会，使其能够在公开和私募市场中提供结构设计、融资、风险管理以及资本市场执行服务。
This is creating significant opportunities for Goldman Sachs to provide structuring, financing, risk management, and capital markets execution across both public and private markets, end quote.
顺便提一下，高盛不仅是SpaceX上市的主承销商，也就是说，他们全程主导了整个流程。
Here, it's worth noting, by way, that Goldman was not only the lead left underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, meaning they're in charge.
他们还主导了谷歌母公司Alphabet规模庞大的二次增发，那次融资曾连续一周保持史上最大股权融资的纪录，直到SpaceX上市才被超越。
It also led Alphabet's huge secondary offering, which was the largest equity offering of all time for about a week until SpaceX came public.
不管怎样，这两块业务都利润丰厚，而且毛利率相当可观。
Anyway, these are two very lucrative pieces of business, again, with terrific gross margins.
不过，即使在行情好的时候，人们也总在问：这种好日子能持续多久？
Now, Goldman, even when times are good, there's always a question of how long can the good times last.
所以高盛的股价市盈率目前大约在19左右，从来没能真正冲上去。
That's why the stock's price jury's multiple, currently around 19, never gets all that high.
它一直没超过市场整体的平均水平。
It doesn't get above the market multiple.
但有一位分析师翻出了历史数据，今天在电话会上提出来，让管理层把当前情况跟互联网泡沫时期，或者2021年那段时期做个对比。
But one analyst looked this up they put it up today on the conference call, asking them to compare the current moment to, quote, the .com era or even during the 2021 period, end quote.
言下之意是，也许我们正处在巅峰期，因为2021年恰好是IPO数量最多的年份。
The implication was, well, maybe we are at peak period, because 2021 happened to be the top of when we had a lot of IPOs.
但索罗门的回答很有意思，我觉得对双方来说都相当鼓舞人心。
But Solomon's answer was interesting, and I thought pretty encouraging if you were both.
他说，如今高盛的规模大得多，业务也多元得多——我这里大致转述一下——能够以各种截然不同的方式赚钱，所以他觉得当前的势头比过去那些短暂的投资周期要稳固得多，‘稳固’才是关键词。
He said, basically, the Goldman is so much larger now, so much more diverse, and I'm paraphrasing here, but so capable of making money in very different ways that he feels as though the current moment is much more durable, that's the keyword, than than insignificant investment cycles of the past.
我觉得这在一定程度上促成了今天强劲的反弹。
I think that helped contribute to today's terrific rally.
我们感觉更有信心了。
We felt a little more confident.
总结一下。
Here's the bottom line.
今天早上公布的五大银行财报都相当强劲，但高盛的这份报告确实脱颖而出。
The five big banks report that we got this morning were all pretty darn strong, but the report from Goldman Sachs was indeed a cut above the rest.
这家投行目前在全业务线上都展现出惊人的活力。
This investment bank is seeing incredible strength across the entire business right now.
虽然有人会问这种强劲势头能持续多久，但Magic认为，现在的业务比以往任何时候都更稳固。
And while it's fair to ask how long the strength can continue, Magic believes the business is more durable than it's ever been.
我个人觉得，我们还处在本轮融资和交易周期的相对早期阶段，这也是为什么它在慈善信托中位列前五。
And personally, I think we're still in relatively early innings of this fundraising and deal making cycle, which is why it is a top five position in the charitable trust.
这个重点我们将在本周四中午的俱乐部会议上详细讨论。
An important point we'll be discussing when we convene our club meeting this Thursday at noon.
现在就加入吧。
Join up now.
我保证，你一定不会想错过。
I'm promising you won't wanna miss it.
我们转到密歇根的Venus。
Let's go to Venus in Michigan.
Venus。
Venus.
Cramer先生。
Mister Cramer.
太棒了！
Woo hoo.
我们是来自密歇根的克拉默。
We're Cramer of Michigan.
我和我女儿卡佳。
Me and my daughter Katya.
她十岁。
She's 10.
跟大家打个招呼吧，卡佳。
Say hi, Katya.
我是克拉默先生。
I'm mister Cramer.
你没问题的。
You're okay.
你好。
Hi.
你怎么样？
How are you?
你最近还好吗？
How are you?
挺好的。
Good.
我们刚从海滩回来。
Like, we just left the beach.
状态特别棒。
We're doing awesome.
今天密歇根这儿热到一百华氏度了。
It's a 100 degrees here in Michigan today.
我现在也觉得热得像一百华氏度。
I feel like it's a 100 degrees right now.
我正被一个不太懂事的孩子逼得压力很大。
I'm under a lot of pressure from this from a kid who's got some worse sense.
让我看看你有什么本事。
Let's see what you got.
让我听听你有什么想法。
Let's see what you got in mind.
告诉他我们想了解哪只股票。
Tell him what stock we're asking about.
SoFi。
SoFi.
所以，克雷默先生，我想了解一下SoFi的情况。
So this is what I wanna know about SoFi, mister Cramer.
好的。
Okay.
她应该成为SoFi的客户。
Well, she should be a client of SoFi.
得让年轻人参与进来。
You gotta get young people involved there.
不对。
No.
别开玩笑了。
Come on.
纳森·尤多斯就是想这么做。
That's what Nathan Yodos trying to do.
让年轻人学会存钱。
Get the younger people to save.
我同意他的看法。
And I agree with him.
这只股票最近一直卡在18.5美元左右。
The stock's been stuck a little bit around the 18 and a half level.
我觉得这是个不错的入场时机。
I think that's a great level to get involved.
我觉得这远不止是一家银行那么简单。
I think that this is much more than a bank.
我觉得它更像一家做服务的公司，只是碰巧在银行业里运作。
I think it is more of a service company that happens to be in banking.
安东尼在那儿做的所有事情，我都挺欣赏的。
And I like everything that Anthony is doing there.
他是首席执行官。
He is the CEO.
明白了。
Alright.
到目前为止，各家银行的财报都很强劲，但高盛的表现尤其突出。
The bank earnings have all been strong so far but Goldman stood out even among the strong core.
是的，我觉得花旗也没那么差。
And yes, I think Citi was not that bad.
别开玩笑了。
Come on.
我觉得高盛的强势势头还能持续下去。
I think the strength in Goldman can continue.
现在我手头的资金多了不少，包括我在Zoom通信上的投资。
Now there's much more money including my scores with zoom communications.
但外面负面消息太多，连我都开始受影响了。
Then there's a lot of negativity out there that's starting to bring even me down.
我跟你说说怎么应对这些负面新闻，保持冷静，这真的不容易。
I'm telling you how to fight the negative headlines and keep your head in the game, and it is really difficult.
当然，接下来是今晚的闪电轮播，所有电话、地图和火线消息一网打尽。
Of course, all your calls, map and fire, tonight's edition of the Lightning Round.
继续关注克拉默的节目。
So stay with Cramer.
今晚我们有个特别的惊喜给你。
Oh, we got a real treat for you tonight.
我们即将对话袁征。
We're gonna be speaking with Eric Yuan.
他是Zoom通信的创始人兼首席执行官。
He's the founder and CEO of Zoom Communications.
你可能是在疫情期间第一次听说Zoom的。
Now you may first heard of Zoom during the pandemic.
那时候Zoom火得不得了，但后来疫情结束了。
Zoom was on the present, but then we got over COVID.
微软Teams和谷歌Meet这些对手迅速崛起，导致Zoom股价一路下滑，情况相当不妙。
And while Microsoft Teams and Google Meet became much bigger competitors, led to a tough, let's say tough decline in the stock.
但过去十二个月，Zoom的股价反弹了将近22%。
But over the past twelve months, Zoom stock has rallied almost 22.
但你想想，就算涨到这个位置，它的市盈率才15倍左右。
But you know that even up here, it sells for just 15 times earnings.
上个季度，公司迎来了几年来最好的增长。
In the latest quarter, the company had its best growth in years.
管理层全面上调了全年预期，还额外增加了10亿美元的股票回购额度。
Management raised their full year forecast across the board, even adding a billion dollars to their buyback authorization.
Zoom现在正大力拓展电话服务、客服中心、办公工具，还有AI产品，能自动把对话转成笔记、跟进事项和已完成的任务。
Zoom is pushing further into phone, contact center, workplace tools, AI products that can turn conversations into notes, follow ups, completed work.
对我来说，它简直像一家全新的公司。
It's like a brand new company to me.
而且，他们在2023年还投资了5100万美元给Anthropic。
Plus, made a $51,000,000 investment in anthropic back in 2023.
目前它的估值高达13亿美元。
Well, it's totally valued at 1,300,000,000.
如果将来真能上市，价值可能还会高得多。
Could be worth a lot more if we get to a, who knows, an I IPO event.
所以今晚，我想再跟埃里克聊聊他在Zoom的这段经历。
So tonight, I wanna check back with Eric about the journey he's had with Zoom.
埃里克，欢迎再次做客《范钱谈》。
Eric, welcome back to Van Money.
谢谢，吉姆。
Thank you, Jim.
感谢你邀请我。
Thank you for having me.
能回来真是太棒了。
It's so awesome to be back.
你亲自到场，我真是特别高兴。
Oh, well, I'm so thrilled you're here to have you in person.
在深入聊Zoom如何超越基础协作、推动整体现代化之前，我觉得你先跟大家讲讲Zoom是怎么起步的、这段旅程是怎么走过来的，会很有意义，毕竟很多人还不了解这个故事。
Before we go over all the things that are extending Zoom well beyond core collaboration, your broader modernization engine you've got going, I thought it might be good for you just to talk about how Zoom came about, the journey, how you got to this point, because people don't know the story.
是的。
Yes.
我2011年离开了思科。
So I left Cisco back in 2011.
然后创办了Zoom。
I started Zoom.
今天，我们刚刚庆祝了Zoom成立十五周年。
And today, we just celebrated Zoom fifteen years anniversary.
过去十五年，我们一直专注于产品，真正打造了一个让客户惊喜的好产品，现在我们正迈向Zoom 2.2的新阶段。
Over the last fifteen years, we were focusing on the product and truly build a great product to delight our customers, and we're on to a zoom2 dot 2 journey now.
我们现在谈的是一些非常棒、真正出色的AI应用场景。
Now we are talking about some tremendous, really some great AI use cases.
比如通话转录、生成摘要、甚至自动推进行动任务。
I'm talking about transcribing calls, summarizing notes, generating potentially executing next actions.
你们已经开始在企业级应用上取得不错的成果，而且进展越来越快。
You're starting to get some pretty great enterprise work and a nice acceleration.
到底是什么让企业和用户对你们现在做的事如此兴奋？
What are the things that are really making people excited, including the enterprise, about what you're doing now?
首先，
So first of
Zoom的价值远远不止于视频会议。
all, Zoom's value goes far beyond the meeting.
我们覆盖了会议前的准备、会议中的协作，以及会后的跟进执行。
We power the prepare preparation before the meeting, the collaboration during the meeting, and the action that follows.
本质上，我们把AI融入了工作、对话、协作、行动和完成的每一个环节。
Essentially, embed AI into every state of the work, conversation, collaboration, action and completion.
我们真正希望成为一套能将对话直接连结到任务完成的工作系统。
And we really want to become a system of action that can connect work from a conversation to a completion.
这就是为什么企业客户如此认同我们的使命。
That's why enterprise customers really like our mission.
比如你提到的雷蒙德·詹姆斯，那家我很欣赏的公司，现在已经成为我们的大客户了。
So, I mean, for instance, you mentioned Raymond James, the firm I really like, and that they've become a client, really very large client.
他们是通过分析客服互动，找出共性问题，还是主要用它来提升整个销售团队的业绩？
Would they be looking up, some contact center, interactions and finding out maybe some commonalities, or are they just using it to be able to figure it out, how to make it so everybody's better at sales?
具体都有哪些应用场景呢？
What's the what are the use cases there?
他们其实早就已经是我们的客户了。
So they are our customer for a long time.
当我们向他们阐述我们的AI愿景时，他们立刻就明白了——从准备到收尾，全程贯通。
When we shared our AI vision with them, they really get it, you know, from accommodation to completion.
所以他们全面采用了我们的客户AI解决方案和AI技术，来优化日常的工作流程。
That's why they deploy our customer AI company and with our AI technology to improve their day to day workflow.
那Figma呢？
And how about a Figma?
真是个不错的客户。
What a great client.
我们觉得他们在AI的这个领域可能会后来居上。
We think that they might be taking over in that particular segment of AI.
你们和他们具体是怎么合作的？
What what are you doing with them?
Figma嘛，是一家设计公司。
So, you know, Figma, right, is a design company.
他们专注在垂直领域。
They focus on the vertical market.
我们也是用AI，同样聚焦在垂直场景。
We leverage AI also focus on the vertical use cases as well.
比如我们有给销售团队用的产品，有给人力资源部门用的，还有给客服中心用的。
Like, we have a product for the sales department, product for HR department, a product for the contact center.
我们这款产品也专注于垂直领域，同样运用了人工智能。
We also the product to leverage AI focused on the vertical market as well.
明白了。
Okay.
我特别喜欢Zoom的客户体验洞察、咨询和联络功能，这些恰恰是你能一直沿用的模式。
Now, I love the the Zoom customer experience insights, the inquiries, the query contacts, and it would seem to me that these are the kinds of things that you could always take.
你拿下一个Zoom客户，就有了这套成熟的方法。
You take a Zoom client that found and you've got that great method.
让大家都去试试、体验一下。
You let everybody kinda try it and sample it.
那你怎么让他们知道这些产品呢？
And then how do you get them to know about these these products?
因为感觉你一介绍，他们就愿意用。
Because it seems like when you tell them about them, they take it.
这是个好问题。
That's a great question.
这正是我们目前面临的问题之一。
That's one for the problem we are facing.
正如我之前提到的，Zoom的价值远不止于视频会议。
As I mentioned, right, Zoom is a value, and it goes far beyond meeting.
但很多时候，他们并没有这么做。
Quite often, they do not do that.
他们有众多针对不同行业的产品，那些都是很出色的业务场景和垂直解决方案。
They have so many vertical products, you know, beautiful, those lens of the business or vertical use case.
我们的营销策略是先确保产品本身稳定好用，再逐步让客户意识到我们拥有完整的平台体系。
You know, our marketing strategy is to make sure, first of all, make sure the product works, and then gradually, let the customer understand we have we have, you know, our entire platform.
那你们有没有遇到特别强劲的竞争对手？
Now, are you do have some very tough competitors?
有的。
Yes.
是一些规模很大的公司。
Big, big companies.
你们是怎么跟他们区分开来的？
How are you distinguishing yourself from them?
既然他们都是知名度很高、已经和很多公司有合作的大企业，你们怎么还能实现快速增长呢？
And how can you have good growth knowing that they are well, let's say they're very well known companies that already have a lot of business with different companies that you might be calling on.
是的。
Yeah.
我们的策略始终是从客户的角度来看待一切。
Our strategy to always look at everything from customer perspective.
当然，我们有几个非常强大的竞争对手，但我们的策略始终是打造最好的产品，让客户感到惊喜，从而建立他们的信任。
For sure, we have a few very big competitors, but our strategy is always to build the best product to delight customers and essentially build their trust.
因为当客户使用Zoom时，他们会感到非常开心，我们的文化就是为客户带来愉悦。
Because with customer, when they are using Zoom, they feel very happy because our culture is to deliver happiness to our customers.
你们是怎么做到AI助手的付费用户在一年内增长了184%，而且在短短四个月内就达到了150万授权用户？
And how are you able to grow AI companion paid users a 184% year over year, and my notes reach 1,500,000 licensed users in just four months?
你们具体是怎么做的？
What are you doing?
首先，我们的产品本身就能正常运行。
So first of all, product just works.
其次，使用起来非常简单，尤其是AI功能已经整合到我们的产品里了。
The second thing is ease of use, and also the you know, especially like AI combining is a part of our package.
而且完全免费，不收任何费用。
It's for free at no cost.
客户特别喜欢这一点。
You know, customer love that.
功能稳定、操作简单，最重要的是还免费。
It works very well, ease of use, and also for free.
这就是为什么我们的年增长率能达到184%的原因。
That's the reason why, you know, in terms of year over year growth and 184 growth.
现在公司的增长速度，跟几年前相比简直令人惊叹。
Now the the company the growth here is rather astounding versus where it was a couple years ago.
你们是不是回购了大量股票？
Do you think that you bought back so many shares.
你什么时候才会意识到我看到的这一点？那就是现在的Zoom已经完全不同了，增长更快了？还是说，只要股价维持在这个水平，你就一直继续回购股票？
When will you get that recognition that I see, which is that this is a very new Zoom, faster growing, or will you just keep buying in the shares if they keep it at this level?
是的。
Yeah.
我们有
We have
预算安排得很扎实。
a strong budget of shape.
对。
So Yeah.
它非常灵活。
You know, it's very flexible.
你一直都有
You always had
从一开始就很稳健的财务状况。
a strong balance from the very beginning.
我知道你一直都很在意这一点。
I know you always cared about that.
对。
Yeah.
因为我们是从股东的角度来考虑的。
Because we look at it from a shareholder perspective.
对吧？
Right?
我们刚发行了十亿美元的回购计划，确保你知道，你知道，并专注于，你知道，反稀释。
We just issued a billion dollar buyback and make sure, you know, and the focus on, you know, anti dilution.
我确保你的股东，他们感到高兴。
I make sure your shareholder, they feel happy.
你知道？
You know?
是的。
Yes.
我们要确保有长期股东。
Make sure we have a long term shareholder.
所以。
So
你跟人聊的时候会发现，Zoom 已经像当年的施乐或者克林克斯一样，大家一说就直接说‘我们开个 Zoom 会’。
Well, does seem when you speak with people, Zoom became like the old Xerox or like Kleenex or these it's just one of these names where it said, let's let's just do a Zoom call.
结果发现不是 Zoom，是别的平台，立马就慌了，因为根本没人会用那些别的软件。
And then when you find out it's not a Zoom call, it's the other guys, you panic because no one knows how to use those guys.
我们都学会了怎么用它。
We all learned how to use them.
你有没有注意到，当别人说‘我想开个某某视频会’，但不是我们家的时候，这事儿特别奇怪。
Have you ever noticed that the strangest when people say, oh, I do wanna do a x call that's not yours.
大家就是只想开 Zoom 会。
People want to do a Zoom call.
吉姆，你说得对。
So, Jim, you are right.
为什么要接受其他平台的链接呢？
Why receive a link from other solutions?
我也快急了。
I'm I'm panicking too.
好消息是，刚才那几分钟确实没连上。
The good news is for the few minutes, it did not work.
另一边的埃里克，你能发我一个Zoom链接吗？
And the other side, Eric, can you send me a Zoom link?
现在能用了。
It works.
现在好像总是这样，安提科，你看到那部分的时候，是不是就感觉挺对劲的？
It always seems to now, Anthropic, did you just have a good feel about it when you you saw the part?
我知道你从一开始就是个特别有眼光的投资者。
I know you've always been a very wise investor from day one.
我非常欣赏他们正在做的事。
I'm a huge fan of what they're doing.
你知道吧，
You know,
比如大公司，从大模型入手，他们既是优秀的客户，也是出色的合作伙伴，我们非常珍惜这段合作关系。
such as greater company, start with greater model, and they are a great customer, a great partner, and yeah, we love this partnership.
你现在也是Salesforce的优秀合作伙伴。
Now you're a good partner of Salesforce too.
他们最近怎么样？
Are they doing okay?
ServiceNow，我知道你了解他们。
ServiceNow, I know you know them.
因为有些人担心这类传统软件公司。
Because some people are worried about these kinds of just traditional software companies.
他们会挺过来吗？
Will they do okay?
我的意思是，以你现在的视角，位置得天独厚，肯定看得清楚。
I mean, I know that you can really, from where you are, you sit in a good perch
让我们知道一下。
to let us know.
我觉得他们不仅过得不错，未来还会表现得非常出色。
I think not only they are doing okay, I think that they would do very well, you know, in the future as well.
我觉得市场有点反应过度了。
I think the market is sort of overreacts.
你看他们的产品，一直为客户提供巨大的价值和实际的业务影响。
I think you look at their their product, they consistently deliver huge value, a business impact to customers.
没错。
Right.
说实话，有你真是太棒了。
Well, look, I I just gotta it's just exciting to have you.
你改变了世界，我们都把你视为开创了全新沟通方式的人。
You changed the world, And we all know you as the person who created a new way that we talk to each other.
他们真该意识到，你的企业是一家实力雄厚的商业公司、企业级公司，但这一点却一直被低估了。
And they really ought to know that there's a new way that your business is a very strong corporate business, enterprise business, because it still doesn't get the credit it deserves.
这是我的看法，但我相信很快就会有更多人这么想。
That's my view, but I think it's going to be many others soon.
这是Zoom通讯公司的创始人兼首席执行官埃里克·伊奥安尼斯。
That's Eric Ioannis, the founder and CEO of Zoom Communications.
各位，我知道股价已经涨了不少，但当你考虑到
Guys, I know it's had a big move, but when you take
一定要
sure to
入手吧。
buy buy it.
它。
It.
我
I'm
我已经找到答案了。
I'm I'm going got the answers.
接下来进入一场快节奏的闪电问答环节，准备好啦。
Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.
来聊聊白色轮盘。
To talk to the white round.
默里，我马上就要打电话了。
Murray, I'm just about to call.
说这句话。
Say this.
再见。
Bye.
我们还是回到本季度的数据上吧。
So so so just return to the quarter.
股价。
Stock.
我的进展似乎抓到了五个点。
My step appears to grab some five.
我们正在玩
We're playing the
声音。
sound.
然后
And
闪电环节就结束了。
then the lighting round is over.
你准备好了吗，Ski？
Are you ready, ski?
Danny，说对了。
Danny, tell the right.
我先从Dan Majes开始。
I'm gonna start with Dan Majes.
Dan。
Dan.
嗨，吉姆。
Hi, Jim.
非常感谢你接我的电话。
You very much for taking my call.
我真的很感激。
I appreciate it.
当然。
Of course.
好的。
Okay.
我需要你对一家叫Kratos Defense and Securities（股票代码：KTO S）的公司给出最靠谱的建议。
I need your most trusted advice on a company called Kratos Defense and Securities, K T O S.
当然可以。
Absolutely.
国防类股票股价几乎腰斩了，这只股票也不例外。
Defense stocks have literally been cut in half, including this one.
我觉得他们已经被惩罚得够多了。
I think that they've been punished enough.
我其实想买Kratos这只股票。
I actually wanna buy Kratos.
我持有一季度了，时间不短了。
I've been a quarter for a long time.
没买之前，股价就已经涨到过120。
It did go up to 120 without me.
我觉得现在这个位置挺合适的。
I think it's good level here.
我们连线一下得州的戴夫。
Let's go to Dave in Texas.
戴夫。
Dave.
晚上好，吉姆。
Evening Jim.
晚上好。
Good evening.
我的问题是关于设备板块的。
My question is for question is for equipment share.
最近这只股票持续下跌，跌至两周低点，表现不如同行。
The stock continues to fall hit a two week low recently compared to its peers.
现在是买入的好时机吗？
Is it a buy?
是哪一只？
Which one is it?
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
哦，我搞错那只了。
Oh, I got that one wrong.
我查一下。
Let me check.
我弄错了。
I got that wrong.
我以为这个会像联合租赁那样，结果不是。
I thought this would be like United Rentals, and it wasn't.
这让人失望，我没法继续持有。
It's disappointing, and I can't stick with it.
我没看出它和你我预期的有什么不同，是我犯了错，抱歉。
I just didn't see the difference between this and you or I, and I made I made a mistake, and I'm sorry.
我们接下来连线康涅狄格州的汤姆。
Let's go to Tom in Connecticut.
汤姆。
Tom.
嗨，吉姆。
Hey, Jim.
汤姆，
Tom,
什么
what's
我想知道你对切尼尔和液化天然气有什么看法。
I was wondering what your thoughts are on Cheniere, LNG.
我从未对切尼尔失去过信心。
I've never lost faith in Cheniere.
我们其实是最早投资切尼尔的能源公司之一，他们至今在液化天然气领域依然表现卓越。
We actually were the first people in energy people with Cheniere, and they're still doing great things with LNG.
我想继续支持他们，因为我觉得我们将会主导全球液化天然气出口市场，因为我们拥有的资源比任何国家都多。
And I wanna continue to back them because I think we're gonna own the LNG export market because we have the most of any country in the world.
肯尼和佛罗里达，肯尼。
Kenny and Florida, Kenny.
你好，吉米叔叔。
Hello, uncle Jimmy.
天哪。
Holy shit.
德拉雷海滩，佛罗里达，真美。
Beautiful Delray Beach, Florida.
哎，侄子。
Oh, nephew.
我知道你特别喜欢那儿。
You know I love it there.
嘿。
Hey.
下次你来这儿，咱们去大西洋那边喝一杯。
Next time you're down here, let's go down to Atlantic and get a drink.
嘿。
Hey.
嗯，我跟那边那家酒店的屋顶酒吧说一声。
Well, yeah, I'll talk to the rooftop bar at that hotel right there.
好。
Okay.
好的。
Alright.
干得漂亮。
Way to go.
给我打个电话。
Give me a call.
嘿。
Hey.
我想听听你对Pico的看法，你觉得它未来会怎样？
Just want your thoughts on Pico and where you think it's going.
我
I
不清楚。
don't know.
问题是，我不清楚它到底拥有什么。
See, my problem is I don't know what it owns.
所以我很担心，这么大的涨势之后，我赶不上趟了，也没法评论它到底有什么。
And so therefore I'm afraid after this tremendous run that I'll be coming in late to the party and I can't opine on what it has.
我们来听听纽约的格伦。
Let's go to Glenn in New York Glenn.
嗨，吉姆。
Hey Jim.
我是斯塔滕岛的格伦。
It's Glenn from Staten Island.
汽油价格实在太高了。
The gasoline price is being so high.
我这假期只能在家后院待着。
I'm vacationing in my backyard.
你对Pool Corp怎么看？
What's your opinion on Pool Corp?
P-o-o-l，就是这个。
P o o l.
泳池行业在房地产交易方面需要更多活跃度，但目前交易量已经跌到四十年最低点，所以我没法推荐泳池股。
Pool needs more transactions in the housing business and transactions are at a forty year low, so I cannot recommend pool.
我们接一下来自新泽西的约翰。
Let's go to John in New Jersey.
约翰。
John.
吉姆，你最近怎么样？
Jim, how are you?
谢谢你为普通人所做的一切。
I wanna thank you for all the good that you're doing for the little guys.
哎呀，太感谢了，老兄。
Oh, thank you, man.
这正是我们的策略。
That's the game plan.
你已经掌握了关键。
You got the game plan.
有什么我可以帮您的吗？
How can I help?
谢谢您，先生。
Thank you, sir.
超微半导体，SMCI。
Super Micro, SMCI.
我觉得那支管理团队的水平实在不怎么样，太差了。
Now I think that team is I think that team is a suboptimal, suboptimal group of executives.
我更倾向于戴尔，甚至惠普，都不选他们。
I prefer either Dell or even HPE to those guys.
各位，这就是闪电环节的全部内容了。
And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the lightning round.
闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。
The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
接下来，克拉默将主动出击，正面回应那些悲观论调，让您看到市场里依然有希望。
Coming up, Cramer's going on the offensive and taking the doomsayers head on to show you there's still good in this market.
下一个。
Next.
我们都听过那些让人厌倦甚至反感的故事，只是不敢点破罢了。
We all have stories who go tired of sick of even, but are afraid to call them out.
作为四十四年来一直专注阅读财经版面的读者，我来跟你们分享几个我的例子。
As an avid reader of the business sections for the last forty four years, I'm gonna give you some of mine.
第一类故事总是开头用些花哨的说法，说股票看着便宜，但接着就搬出某个空头的数据，告诉你股票其实被高估了，赶紧撤吧。
The first are tomes that start with something cute about how stocks may look cheap, but and then there's some statistic of some short seller who tries to tell you why stocks are overvalued, and you should get out now.
这种故事，估计只有在堪萨斯的超市里才卖得出去。
These kinds of stories must be sold in Kansas at the supermarket.
这种东西实在太多了。
There's so many of them.
它们没完没了，听起来却个个都一副权威的样子。
They are endless and they always sound so darn authoritative.
昨天就有一个，说盈利预期可能太高了，或者当前的盈利数据被夸大了。
We had one yesterday talking about how the earnings estimates could prove to be far too high or the current earnings are overstated.
所有的这类文章。
All of them.
我忍不住笑了。
I had to laugh.
说实话，要是没有我当记者的经验，年轻时我可能真会受骗，把股票卖了——毕竟记者都爱报负面新闻。
I mean, as a young investor, I might have even been tempted to sell my stocks, if not from my experience as a journalist, which taught me that press loves negativity.
我自己也经营一家财经媒体，根本没法让记者写点正面的东西。
I own a cyber paper myself, so hard to get the journalist to write anything positive about anything.
还有现在这种关于半导体的故事，说它们再也不能像以前那样，只靠超预期的财报就继续上涨了。
Then there are the stories like the ones we're seeing right now about semiconductors and how they are no longer going to be able to better, let's say, only be able to go up on better than expected earnings.
那种大涨的行情已经结束了。
That's the big move is over.
没错。
Sure.
但今天股市反弹之后，我倒觉得它们可能被卖过头了。
But after today's rally, I wonder if they're getting oversold.
也许那段时间他们只是在恢复元气。
Maybe they were just recharging that whole time.
事实上，我们不知道卖方是不是快撑不住了，记者们也不知道。
Fact is, we don't know if the sellers are almost done nor do the journalists.
在信息不充分的情况下盲目抛售，很可能是个大错。
Selling without knowing more could be a big mistake.
半导体板块今天涨了将近百分之三。
Semiconductor next was up almost 3% today.
也许这才是重新启动的信号。
Maybe that's the restart.
仅仅因为股价下跌就看空整个板块，我觉得没什么道理。
To be bearish in the group just simply because it went down, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
再比如那些报道，总在强调债券市场的重要性，还有某个美联储官员——突然间大家都盯着他，只因为媒体说我们应该关注他。
How about stories covering the importance of the bond market and a given Fed honcho who we all seem to be keying on suddenly because that's what the media says we should be keying on.
之前一直不被看好的一位美联储官员，现在却主张加息了。
One Fed official who was a dog now wants rate hikes.
哇哦。
Woo.
这导致许多本来很聪明的人纷纷抛售股票，因为你根本没法跟美联储对着干，哪怕那个官员并不能代表整个美联储。
That's causing otherwise smart people to blow out of stocks because you can't fight the Fed even if that one official doesn't represent
美联储。
the Fed.
这些报道已经让不少人损失惨重，可它们却源源不断。
These stories have cost
人们损失了巨额财富，但这类故事还是层出不穷。
people fortunes, but they keep coming and coming.
事实上，这些故事正被那些自己都搞不清状况的人追捧，他们误导投资者，尤其是在CPI连续一个月下跌——这是自2020年以来的首次。
In fact, they're sought after by people who don't know their misleading investors, especially on a day when the CPI action fell month over month for the first time since 2020.
相信我，如果CPI在下降，利率就不可能上升。
Believe me, if the CPI is going down, rates aren't going up.
我真希望这些报道能被打上‘可能无关紧要’或‘错误’的标签，但没人允许我们这么做。
I wish you could sticker these stories as possible irrelevant or wrong, but they won't let you do that.
嘿，也许根本就不该突出这些内容。
Hey, maybe they just shouldn't be highlighted.
也许根本就不该这么做。
Maybe they shouldn't be done.
哦，我还有好多别的典型例子。
Oh, I got a bunch of other favorites.
有几个人多年来一直做空股票，一直持悲观态度。
There are a couple of people who are over the years have shorted stocks have been negative for ages.
他们的记录从来没人提。
Their records are never talked about.
可每当他们提到自己看空的股票时，却都被当成什么重大发现。
Yet when they bring up a stock that they hate, it's presented as something groundbreaking.
真正把股价压下去的，是媒体，不是空头。
The press, not the short sellers, then knock the stock down.
这真让人难受，尤其是没人跟进后续的时候。
It's painful, especially when there's no follow-up.
你往往会后悔自己居然当真了这些故事。
You usually end up kicking yourself for taking these stories seriously.
再比如，有个分析师冷冰冰地跑来跟你说，得卖戴尔，因为内存价格涨了，好像迈克尔·戴尔没想过这回事似的。
Or how about when there's an analyst, an ice cold one who talks to you about how you gotta say sell Dell because of the rising cost of memory price as if Michael Dell hasn't thought through.
对啊。
Yeah.
那时候你手里还拿着一百五十美元的股票。
You got a lot of those at 150.
现在呢，才四块五毛七。
Now it's at $4.57.
今天有个分析师下调了苹果的评级，可他过去好多年对苹果的判断就没准过。
We had a downgrade of Apple today from a guy who hasn't been right for Apple about Apple for ages.
他完全错过了这波行情。
He missed the whole move.
要是听他的，你可就亏大了。
Could have cost you fortress.
现在他这一下调级可真是闹得沸沸扬扬。
Now he made a splash with his downgrade.
最离谱的是，有人警告你，只要十年期利率突破5%，或者五年期超过4%，就得把所有东西全抛了。
The worst, someone who warns you that if the ten year goes over 5% or the five year goes over 4%, you gotta sell everything.
这种话我每天都能听到。
I hear this stuff every day.
简直让人难以置信。
It's incredible.
咱们来聊聊事实吧。
Now let's talk about the truth.
自从我开始听这些胡说八道以来，达索指数已经涨了五万一千点。
The Dallas gone up 51,000 points since I first started to hear this garbage.
这些说法就是故意制造恐慌。
It's meant to have an impact to garbage.
目的就是让你赶紧行动。
It's meant to make you take action.
这是在逼你离场。
It's meant you to get out.
它就是想让你抛售。
It wants you to sell.
现在新任美联储主席上任了，我听说他还是要加息，尽管今天的CPI已经稳住了。
Now that we have a new fed chief, I'm hearing he's gonna take up rates even though the CPI was tamed today.
现在到了新的财报季，我听说股价已经高得离谱了。
Now that we have a new earning season, I'm hearing the stocks already too high.
现在又开战了，我听说市场会大幅下跌。
Now that we're back at war, I'm hearing that there's huge downside.
对此我想问：你喜不喜欢你持有的那些公司？
To which I say, do you like the companies you own?
那就准备好趁这种精心营造的悲观情绪抄底吧。
Then get ready to buy more into this heavily crafted negativity.
你投资的是指数基金吗？
Are you in an index fund?
准备好再买入吧。
Get ready to buy more.
如果你做空了，那你就不用听我的了。
And if you're short, well, then you don't need me.
你有的是媒体替你造势。
You have the rest of the media to do your bidding.
我老话说，牛市夏天，大概就是让你听到市长搞混了。
I like to say as always, bull market summer, probably just for you to hear mayor muddy.
我是吉姆·克莱默。
I'm Jim Cramer.
明天见。
See you tomorrow.
吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为其个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能此前已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布。
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previous disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.
您不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.
克雷默的观点基于他所认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司并不保证这些信息的完整或准确，因此不应以此为依据做出决策。
Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。
To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.
7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与Boardroom将携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
如需获取邀请，请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
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