Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/17/26

但一旦有了高效的疫苗，增长机会就消失了，这家公司很难把疫情期间赚来的钱转向其他业务。

But once we got quality vaccines, the growth opportunity evaporated, and the company struggled to use all the money it made during the pandemic to pivot into something else.

它手上有大笔现金。

They had a huge cash position.

后来，竞争对手慢慢追了上来。

Then gradually, its competitors caught up.

要跟微软、谷歌和思科竞争，实在太难了。

Very tough to go up against Microsoft and Google and Cisco.

Zoom的股价从2020年10月的高点588美元，不到两年就跌到了七十几美元。

Zoom only punched from 588 at its all time high in October 2020 down to the mid seventies less than two years later.

下跌过程中，很多人觉得这肯定抄到底了，可每次出手都踩了雷。

There were points on the way down where people assumed it had to be a bargain, but every time they did, they got burned.

如果一家公司的业务本身在转型、在放缓，你根本没法判断它的股价什么时候会见底。

Because you can't call a bottom in a stock that's in free fall if the business is changing and getting slower.

我们还看到，疫情期间受益于超低利率的那些金融科技股，也经历了完全类似的情况。

We saw something very similar to all the financial tech stocks that had roared during the period of ultra low interest rates that coincide with the pandemic.

有很多‘先买后付’的公司，其中有一家算是做得不错的。

Lots of buy now, later outfits, a firm, which is one of the better ones.

但一旦美联储警告要迅速加息，整个商业模式就受到了质疑。

But once the Federal Reserve warned that it would start rapidly raising interest rates, the whole business model was called into question.

这一类公司全军覆没。

This group was annihilated.

最惨的是家叫Upstart的公司，本来是帮人放贷的，结果在美联储推高风险的时候，却把大量贷款记在了自己账上。

The worst of these was a company called Upstart, which is really supposed to facilitate loans, but they started leaving many of these loans what's known as on the balance sheet, just as the Fed caused current risk to skyrocket.

股价从2021年底超过400美元的高点，直接崩盘。

The stock plummeted get this from just over 400, its late twenty twenty one peak.

不到两年时间，股价跌到谷底，后来才稍微回升了一点。

Capital o t's less than two years later before eventually rebounding somewhat from its lows.

另一方面，有时候股价下跌跟公司本身根本没关系。

On the other hand, sometimes the stock will sell off for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying company.

可能是受ETF操作、海外问题，或者市场恐慌情绪的影响。

It could be caused by ETFs or problems overseas or washing worries.

股价下跌并不一定意味着公司本身出了问题。

Just because the stock is down doesn't necessarily mean that there's anything wrong with the underlying business.

股价受损，公司没垮。

Damaged stock, not damaged company.

那你怎么分辨是公司出问题了，还是只是股价被误伤了？

So how do you distinguish between a broken company and a broken stock?

这事儿挺复杂的。

Complicated.

是个复杂的问题。

Complicated question.

我通常会列一张自己非常看好的股票清单。

What I like to do is develop a list of stocks I like very much.

我把这个清单叫做我们投资俱乐部慈善信托组合的候补阵容。

I call this the bullpen of my investment club charitable trust portfolio.

我们经常把这份候补名单分享给大家。

We give you the bullpen all the time.

当华尔街搞大甩卖、整个市场都在下跌时，我们就趁机买入名单上的股票——这些股票是在市场平静、无人交易时挑好的，而不是在市场动荡时仓促决定的。

When Wall Street throws a sale with the whole market coming down, we use that as an opportunity to pick up the stocks on our list made in the calm of of no trading versus the battlefield of them when the market's open.

我们早就对这些股票了如指掌。

We know these stocks ahead of time.

因为我们提前做过研究，所以很清楚这些公司的基本面没有问题。

So we know there's nothing wrong with the underlying companies because we've done the research ahead.

但说到底，你永远没法百分百确定。

But the bottom line is, you never really know.

所以这条规则和上一条是相辅相成的。

That's why this rule works in tandem with the last one.

永远别一次性全仓买入，因为你以为只是股价被错杀，结果可能是公司本身出了问题。

Never buy a position all at once because what you think is merely a damaged stock might turn out to be a damaged company.

如果你慢慢来，就不会那么容易买进一大把烂摊子了——抱歉，应该是更不容易买到一堆废品。

If you take your time, you're much more likely I'm sorry, much less likely to end up with a large quantity of broken merchandise.

记住，这行没有七天无理由退货。

And remember, there's no money back guarantee.

外界都在说，希望你能来阿姆斯特丹。

The word on the street is to have you in Amsterdam.

如果你打算构建一个由个股组成的投资组合，那得看情况——毕竟，投资低成本的标普500指数基金，获得全面的股票市场敞口，也完全没问题。

We have money's back after If you want to build portfolio of individual stocks, that's a big if since there's nothing wrong with getting all of your equity exposure from a cheap index fund that mirrors the s p 500.

你得认真对待这件事。

You gotta be rigorous about it.

这就引出了我的下一条规则：做足功课。

Which brings me to my next rule, do the homework.

听好了，安静点。

Listen, quiet.

我孩子特别讨厌做作业。

My kids hated doing the homework.

他们觉得那简直是一种惩罚。

They thought it was punishment.

有时候我看看他们学的内容，还真能理解他们为什么这么想。

Sometimes when I looked at what they were studying, I could see where they were coming from.

我是说，高中教的那些东西，到底有多大用处？

I mean, what's the relevance of most of the things they teach in high school?

这些对你以后的生活能有什么帮助？

How will it help you later in life?

何必费这个劲呢？

Why even bother?

当然，这种态度可不对。

Of course, that's a terrible attitude.

作为父母，我总是鼓励孩子好好学习，因为你永远不知道将来会对什么产生兴趣。

As a parent, I always encourage my kids to study because you never know what you'll turn out to be interested in later in life.

但我提起这个，是因为我觉得你们很多人对选股要做的研究，也有同样的想法。

But I bring this up because I think many of you have the same attitude to the homework you need to do in your stocks.

你们觉得，这些研究对你们的投资组合来说，可能就像对我孩子功课一样无关紧要。

You suspect it might be just as irrelevant to your portfolio as schoolwork seemed to my kids.

当我告诉人们，你们得去听星巴克的电话会议，或者了解分析师对奈飞的预期时，他们根本不想听。

When I tell people that they need to listen to these, let's say, Starbucks conference call or know what the analysts are expecting from Netflix, they don't wanna hear it.

他们觉得我在唠叨，但其实不是这样。

They think I'm being a scold, but that's not true.

如果你打算持有这类股票，就得做足功课。

You need to do the work if you're gonna own those kinds of stocks.

当我提醒他们，做功课意味着听电话会议、看研究报告时，他们一听就躲。

When I remind people that doing the homework means listening to conference calls, reading research reports, they want no part of it.

他们看我的眼神，就像我在一个忙碌的二十一世纪还要求他们按老规矩做事似的。

They look at me as if I'm some sort of old fashioned teacher who's asking for way too much in this busy twenty first century world.

这种想法完全不对。

That's just plain wrong.

不做好研究就买股票，说白了就是荒唐。

Owning stocks without doing the proper research, frankly, is ludicent.

但还是有人这么做，而且各有各的理由。

But people still do it, and they do it for a couple of different reasons.

一方面，有那种长期持有的投资理念。

On the one hand, there's the buy and hold school of thought.

有人觉得根本不用花什么功夫。

The idea that you don't really need to do any work.

你不用管公司那边发生了什么，反正你打算长期持有嘛。

You don't have to keep track of what's happening with the company because, hey, you're in it for the long also.

那又怎样呢？

So what?

另一方面，有些人实在抽不出时间去认真研究。

On the other hand, you got people who just don't have the time to be diligent.

如果你没时间，我有个简单的办法。

For those of you who don't have the time, I got a simple solution.

拜托，就请人帮你打理资金吧。

Get someone else to manage your money for heaven's sake.

或者听大多数专家的建议，投资一个低成本的标普500指数基金。

Or do what most experts tell you to do and invest in a low cost s and p 500 index fund.

还有第三个选择：找个人帮你做研究，同时教你如何自己管理投资组合——这正是我们CBC投资俱乐部在做的事。

Or there is a third option, find someone else to help you do the homework for you while teaching you to be your own portfolio manager, which is what we do with the CBC Investing Club.

我仍然建议会员尽可能多花点时间做自己的研究。

And I still urge members to do as much of their homework as they can.

说实话，如果你每周抽不出两三个小时来打理投资组合，那就别瞎折腾个股了，除非你加入我们的投资俱乐部——这正是我们存在的意义。

The truth is if you can't devote a couple of hours per week to your portfolio, you really shouldn't be messing around with individual stocks unless you join the Investing Club, which is what we're meant for.

投资虽然不像交易那样是全职工作，但绝对算得上是一份兼职爱好。

Investing may not be a full time job like trading, but it's definitely a part time hobby.

不过，真正更危险的是‘买入并持有’这种理念。

That said, it's the buy and hold premise that's a lot more pernicious.

上世纪九十年代，‘买入并持有’成了投资界的唯一真理。

Back during the nineteen nineties, buy and hold became the be all and end all of all investing.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我就死抱着我的CMGI不放，反正它迟早得回到我买入时的100块。

I'm just gonna hold on to my and hold on to my CMGI because it's gotta go back to a 100 where I bought it.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，专家们一直跟你说，只要长期持有，一切都会好起来的。

I mean, the experts told you that if you hold things for the long term, everything will work out.

结果呢？我的投资直接归零了。

Of course, I went to zero.

但这种理念在金融危机时遭遇重创，很多坚持买入并持有的人血本无归。

But this philosophy took a real blow during the financial crisis when so many people who practice buy and hold got obliterated.

那确实简单。

That was easy.

简直就是一场噩梦。

A house of pain.

买入并持有变得特别流行。

Buy and hold became popular.

再说，疫情期间，只要市场稍微平稳一点，这种说法就又冒出来了。

Again, during the pandemic, it keeps popping up anytime there's just a nice smooth period.

那时候资金泛滥，几乎什么东西都能涨。

When the market was flooded with cheap money and almost everything worked.

对吧？

Right?

结果全都亏进去了。

I mean, made all that money in.

再见。

Bye.

再见。

Bye.

再见。

Bye.

但等到2022年美联储终于开始收紧政策，廉价资金突然消失时，很多人又被套住了。

Once again, though, it got it got you burned when the fed finally started tightening in 2022, and the cheap money just vanished.

很多买进并持有SPAC股票的人惨遭重创，因为那些东西根本没什么价值。

A lot of people who bought and held the SPACs got crushed because there was nothing worth holding.

这简直就是SPAC的一场闹剧。

That was just a travesty of the SPACs.

所以我一直大力提倡一个新的理念，就是‘买入前做功课’。

That's why I've always been evangelists for a new concept, which is buy and homework instead.

那这个功课到底指的是什么？

What is the homework though?

在买一只股票之前，你应该去听公司的电话会议。

Before you buy a stock, you should listen to conference calls.

去公司官网看看。

Go to the company's website.

我特别喜欢这个做法。

I really like that.

说实话，我最近就吃了这个亏。

I tell you, I've been stuck with that lately.

如果能弄到研究报告，一定要读一读。

Read the research if you can get a hold of research.

多看看相关新闻报道。

Read the news stories.

这不就是谷歌的事儿吗。

That's called Google.

网上什么都能找到。

Everything's available on the web.

什么都能找到。

Everything.

现在你能接触到的信息和知识多得多了，根本没理由不花点心思。

You have so much more info available now, so much more knowledge that there's really no excuse.

你不用像我四十年前那样，就在这条街上，跑去高盛的图书馆，求人给你看三个月前的那份微不足道的财务摘要。

You aren't up there begging at the Goldman Sachs library for some micro fee statement from three months ago as I did four decades ago right down the block here.

所有信息都触手可及。

You have everything right at your fingertips.

但如果你对任何一组股票都死守买入持有策略，从不关注动态，我敢保证，你一定会被那些长期表现优异、时刻在寻找优质股票的专业基金经理远远甩在后面。

But if you fall back on a buy and hold strategy for any group of stocks and don't pay attention, I can assure you that you'll be soundly beaten by professional money managers with good track records who are actively searching for high quality stocks all the time.

我想说的是，我非常确定，任何指数基金都能打败那些从不做功课的人，这也就是为什么那么多专家建议你：别碰个股，直接买个便宜的标普500指数基金。

One of the point, I'm quite certain that any index fund can beat someone who does no homework, which is why so many experts tell you, give up on individual stocks and put your money in a cheap s p 500 index fund.

买入并持有根本算不上什么策略。

Buy and hold is not a strategy.

太懒了。

Lazy.

我不是说过了吗？对于那些有时间、有兴趣的人，我还是支持指数基金的。

I'm not I said, I am in favor of index funds for those who do have the time, the predilection.

下一个规则是我一直反复强调的关键点。

The next rule is another essential that I harp on constantly.

分散投资，再分散投资，还是要分散投资。

Diversify, diversify, and diversify.

一定要做到分散投资。

Always be diversified.

这样才能控制风险。

That controls risk.

真正理解风险，才是这个行业的终极目标。

Imagining risk is really the holy grail of this business.

那最大的风险是什么？

What's the biggest risk out there?

这叫行业风险。

It's called sector risk.

同一行业的股票，表现往往同步。

Stocks are the same industry.

尤其是在市场剧烈波动的时候，它们几乎一起动。

They tend to trade together, especially at extreme moments.

过去，一个行业里大约只有一半的涨跌是由行业整体驱动的，个股自身的影响只占一半。

In the old days, only about 50% of the action in a given sector came down to this in a given stock came down to the sector.

但自从行业ETF兴起后，这个比例已经大幅上升了。

But thanks to the rise of sector ETFs, that number's gotten much, much higher.

有些情况甚至高达百分之九十。

Some cases, like 90%.

不管2000年时某只科技股有多牛。

I don't care how great a tech stock was in 2000.

如果你把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里，那结果只能是全碎了。

If you had all your eggs in that one basket, you got scrambled.

我得避免这种情况发生。

I gotta prevent that.

2008年金融板块也是这样。

Same with the financials in 2008.

我得避免这种情况发生。

I gotta prevent that.

2014到2016年的石油股，还有2022年那段时间科技股的惨烈表现，都是如此。

The oils in 2014 through 2016, and, of course, tech during that discrete period in 2022 that was so horrible.

要避开行业风险，只有一种办法，那就是分散投资。

And there's only one thing that can keep you from getting nailed by sector sector risk, and that is diversification.

我总说，分散投资是这个行当里唯一的免费午餐。

I always say diversification is the only free lunch in this business.

它是唯一一个对所有人都有效的投资理念。

It's the only investment concept that works for everyone.

如果你的投资组合里涵盖足够多的不同行业，至少五个，那我告诉你，就算其中一个行业彻底崩盘，你也不会全军覆没。

If you mix up enough different sectors in your portfolio, at least five, well, I'll tell you, you won't be wiped out when the one group gets obliterated.

这种事发生的频率，可能比你想象的要高得多。

Something that happens far more often than you might think.

但既然分散投资这么简单明了，既然这么多年来所有顾问和评论员都在劝大家这么做，怎么还有人不分散投资呢？

But if diversification is such a no brainer, if every adviser and commentator under the sun has been telling people to do it for years, how can anyone still be undiversified?

我觉得问题还是出在功课没做够。

I think it comes back to the homework issue.

很多人根本不知道自己手里持有哪些股票。

A lot of people simply don't own don't know what stocks they own.

他们也不清楚这些公司到底是做什么的。

They don't understand what the companies do.

结果买来的股票，本质上都差不了多少。

So they end up with stocks that are finally very similar.

他们根本没意识到，一家只是陷入困境的公司，另一家却是半导体股。

I mean, they don't understand that one is just distraught company, the other is a semiconductor stock.

这真让我抓狂。

It just drives me crazy.

喂。

Hey.

你知道吗？

You know what?

而且，很多人根本不在乎熊市的历史，也不了解它如何重创各个行业。

Also, others have zero respect for the history of the bear and how it attacks individual sectors.

我到现在还经常接到一些人的电话，他们真以为持有FANG股票就算分散投资了。

I still feel quite a few calls from people who genuinely think that owning FANG is a diversified strategy.

根本不是这么回事。

Hardly.

现在Facebook、Meta、亚马逊、奈飞和谷歌，你持有的都是同一种类型的东西。

With Facebook down meta platforms, Amazon, Netflix, and Google now, you own variations of the same thing.

社交、移动、云计算，它们的走势都是一样的。

Social, mobile, cloud, they trade together.

这我才叫虚假的分散投资。

That's what I call faux diversification.

再比如，哪怕我一时挺看好石油股，我也不会把雪佛龙、派昂、自然资源这些公司算作一个投资组合，说不清它们到底能给我什么。

Or another example, no matter how much I might like the oil stocks at any given moment, I can't count as a portfolio made up of Chevron, Pioneer, Natural Resources, and I don't know what they give me.

我更倾向于用哈里伯顿，或者选两家高收益的钻探公司。

I use Halliburton or two two high yielding ones in a driller.

我从来不会选强生、礼来、百时美施贵宝、联合健康集团这么一堆股票做投资组合。

I always say no to a portfolio of J and J, Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers, UnitedHealth Group.

虽然我挺喜欢这四家公司，但它们会让你过度暴露在医疗行业的风险里，一旦行业出事，整个组合可能瞬间崩盘。

Even as I like all four companies, they just leave you way too exposed to health care risk that could overwhelm the whole group all at once.

投资组合不够分散，可不只是新手才会犯的错。

Having an undiversified portfolio is not just an amateur mistake, though.

很多专业人士其实也不愿分散投资，因为这个国家的资产管理行业运作方式太奇怪了。

Many professionals don't want to be diversified because of the bizarre way the money management business works in this country.

如果你把所有赌注都押在一个行业上，而那个行业正好起飞了——

If you concentrate all your bets in one sector, that sector takes off.

那时候你几乎把所有人都甩在身后了。

Well, you pretty much beat everybody right then.

有一个分散投资的基金。

There's a diversified fund.

这就是这个行业的本质，尽管我觉得这其实是自找的。

That is the nature of the beast, even though I think it's self founded.

所以凯西·伍德的ARK基金，2020年可能是表现最好的基金经理，到了2021年却远非顶尖，2022年更是跌到垫底。

It's why Kathy Wood of ARK Invest could be the best money manager of 2020, then far from the best in 2021 and among the worst 2022.

她的旗舰基金ARK Innovation几乎全押在高风险的成长股上。

Her flagship ARK Innovation Fund went almost all in on high risk growth stocks.

这根本算不上分散投资。

That's not diversified.

这些股票往往是一起涨跌的。

And those all stocks, they tend to trade as a group.

但正是2020年那一年的惊人表现，让她成了家喻户晓的人物。

But that one huge year in 2020 made her a household name.

一旦你成了家喻户晓的人物，那在这行里，你就算站稳脚跟了。

And once your household name, well, you do get it made in this business.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

我对凯西·伍德真有点意见。

I feel beef with Captain Wood.

她选高风险成长股确实厉害，而且她从来没说过自己在管理一个分散投资的组合，一次都没说过。

She's great at picking high risk growth stocks, and she's never claimed to be running diversified portfolio, not once.

我只是想让你明白，如果你把所有资金都押在不分散的投资上，几年内很可能会接连栽跟头。

I just want you to be aware that when you go all in on an undiversified portfolio, it is likely to blow up in your face a couple times in a, I don't a few years time.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

不管你是不是专业投资者，都得做足功课，保持投资组合的分散性。

Whether you're an amateur professional, you always need to do your homework and keep your portfolio diversified.

这种日常维护，才能让你在未来避免遭遇毁灭性的亏损。

This is the kind of routine maintenance that protects you from monster losses down the line.

记住，只要你能把亏损控制在最小，让盈利充分增长，你几乎总能赢。

Remember, if you can keep your losses to a minimum and let your gains run, you almost always come out ahead.

但别试图为这些亏损找借口，因为股票并不总能回升到原价，甚至离原价都差得远。

But don't try to rationalize those losses because stocks don't always come back to even or anywhere near that.

我们来听一下来自德克萨斯的特雷。

Let's go to Trey in Texas.

特雷。

Trey.

吉姆，有史以来第二伟大的投资者沃伦·巴菲特说，像我这样的散户就该直接买标普500。

Jim, the second greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, says individual investors like me should just buy the S and P.

我想问你的是，那位有史以来最伟大的投资者觉得我们该买什么？

My question for you is, what does the greatest investor of all time think we should buy?

首先，我不是沃伦·巴菲特，我只是一个在电视上尽力教大家的普通人。

Well, first, I I'm no Warren Buffett, and I'm a TV guy who tries to do his best to teach you.

不过还是谢谢你这么说。

I but I thank you for that.

我来跟你们说说我的看法。

Here here here's what what I have to say.

我觉得这取决于你的时间和偏好。

I think it depends on your time and predilection.

你先把前一万块放进指数基金里。

I think you put away your first 10,000 in a in an index fund.

如果你喜欢选股，那咱们就一起好好选。

If you like picking stocks, let's do it well together.

加入CNBC投资俱乐部吧。

Join join the CNBC investing club.

如果你不喜欢选股，那就让别人替你操心。

If you don't like picking stocks, then let someone else do it for you.

但如果你希望参与进来，我会教你如何成为一个优秀的投资者。

But if you wanna be involved, I will help teach you to be a good investor.

我完全可以做到。

I can do that.

我这么干了很长时间，幸运的是，我一直挺成功的。

I've done it for a very long time, and fortunately, I've been very successful.

我们来听听印第安纳州的安妮怎么说。

Let's go to Anne in Indiana.

安妮。

Anne.

你好，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

谢谢你抽出时间接我电话。

Thanks for taking my call.

别客气，安妮。

You're quite welcome, Anne.

最近怎么样？

What's up?

我是俱乐部的成员，不过最近一直在想这件事。

I'm a club member, but I've been thinking about this lately.

我一直在想，你们能不能多讲讲，当CEO做了他们说过不会做的事，或者公司犯了一堆错误，但竞争很少的时候，我们是不是该放下判断，让市场自己去推动股价？还有，如果CEO犯了大错，修复起来要花很长时间，这种情况又该怎么看？

And I wondered if you could talk more about suspending our judgment and letting the market take a stock up even when a CEO does something they said they're not gonna do or a company makes a bunch of mistakes, but they have very little competition or a CEO makes big mistakes that seem to take a long time to fix?

这确实是个很难的问题，安，因为我自己就犯过这样的错。

Well, this is a tough tough one, Ann, because I've made this mistake.

我总是对某些人坚持得太久。

I've stuck with people for too long.

我总想着，再给他们一次机会吧。

I keep thinking give them another try.

但几乎每次，结果都不理想。

Almost every case, it hasn't been working.

几乎是每一次，包括我现在正在经历的情况。

Almost every single case, including situations I'm in now.

没错。

Right.

不管你是新手还是专业人士，你总是会认真做功课，保持投资组合的分散。

Whether you're an amateur or professional, you always seem to do your homework and keep your portfolio diversified.

后面还有更多内容。

There's much more ahead.

我将用自己四十年的经验，分享CBC投资俱乐部的核心准则。

I'm putting my four decades of experience to work, sharing the key rules we follow for the CBC Investing Club.

如果你不是会员，这就相当于让你窥见幕后的一角。

Think of it as a glimpse behind the curtain if you're not a member.

继续关注克莱默吧。

So stay with Cramer.

我可不想跟你讲什么投资组合管理的禅意。

I don't wanna go all zen in the art of portfolio maintenance on you.

但当你自己打理钱的时候，往往最拖你后腿的就是你自己。

But when it comes to managing your own money, you are often your own worst enemy.

别往心里去。

Don't take it personally.

我也是自己的最大敌人。

I'm my own worst enemy too.

如果你想明智投资，就得不断对抗自己最冲动的念头。

If you wanna invest wisely, you constantly need to be fighting off your own worst impulse.

我们不是机器人。

We're not robots.

人有情绪，而这些情绪很容易让你乱了阵脚。

We have emotions, and those emotions can really throw you off your game.

这就引出了我的下一条投资准则。

Which brings me to my next rule for investing.

从来没人靠恐慌赚到过一分钱。

Nobody ever made a dime by panicking.

恐慌不是策略，但人们却总在这么做。

Panic is not a strategy, and people do it constantly.

一只股票大跌之后，投资者往往就在跌后抛售。

A stock gets hammered, then investors sell after the hammering.

市场在大幅下挫的一天里被彻底打垮。

The market gets crushed on a huge down day.

到头来，人们都选择撤退。

People bail at the end of the day.

简而言之，资产暴跌时，人根本扛不住这种痛苦。

In short, something gets annihilated, and people can't take the pain.

那他们怎么办呢？

So what do they do?

立马跑路。

They bolt.

恐慌、想逃的冲动，其实是一种本能反应。

There's something instinctive about panic, about the desire to flee.

如果你是石器时代的猎人，不小心撞见一群灰熊，恐慌确实能救你一命，但在股市里，这种情绪一点用都没有。

If you're a stone age hunter gatherer who accidentally stumbles into a family of grizzly bears, panic is a very helpful strategy, but it's not useful emotion when you're investing in the stock market.

事实上，比起让你恐慌的那个瞬间，几乎总会有更好的卖出时机。

The truth is, there almost always be a better time to sell than whatever moment inspired you to panic in the first place.

这一点，我再清楚不过了。

And don't I know it?

还记得2020年春天，新冠疫情刚爆发的时候吗？

Remember the spring of twenty twenty when COVID hit?

所有东西都停摆了。

Everything shut down.

整个股市直接崩盘。

The whole stock market collapsed.

标普500指数在一个多月内跌掉了三分之一。

The S and P five hundred lost a third of its value in a little over a month.

之后好几个月，圈里几乎人人都觉得世界末日到了。

And for months after, almost everybody in the business was convinced the world was ending.

但就在四月，著名市场历史学家拉里·威廉姆斯给出了明确信号。

That April, though, legendary market historian Larry Williams gave us the all clear.

他观察了其他国家的情况，意识到我们最晚到五月中旬就能解除封锁。

He was looking at other countries and realized we'd mostly be out of lockdown by mid May.

他劝大家趁恐慌最严重的时候进场，别跟着别人慌不择路地逃跑。

He told you to buy into the teeth of the panic, not flee with the panickers.

果然，到了夏天，标普指数就再次创出新高了。

Sure enough, the SP was making new highs again by the summer.

等到十一月疫苗上市后，市场就再也没回头过，对吧？

And once the vaccines came on that November, will the market just never look back?

所以下次再遇到大规模抛售，你心里想着赶紧逃命、再也不碰股票的时候，我希望你帮我做一件事。

So the next time there's a big market wide sell off and you feel like fleece fleeing and never touching a stock again, I want you to do something for me.

你得跟自己的冲动反着来。

I want you to take the opposite side of your own trade.

最值得做的交易，往往是那些被恐慌的人用市价单疯狂抛售之后，市场清空了筹码，而他们根本没意识到，出口没他们想的那么窄。

Most rewarding trades you can make are those where the decks have been cleared out by terrified folks using market orders who just don't get that the exit doors aren't as big as they think they are.

当然，我不是说每次市场恐慌抛售的股票都值得长期持有。

Mind you, I am absolutely not saying that every stock that gets hit with a panic sell off is worth buying for the long term.

很多时候，人们对某家公司恐慌，其实是有道理的。

Often, when people freak out about an individual company, it's with good reason.

但我说的是，大跌之后，通常都会有一波反弹，这时候如果你打算卖出，反而是个更好的时机。

But I am saying that after a big decline, you usually get some kind of bounce, which gives you a better moment to sell if that's what you want to do.

即使情况再糟，抄底的人通常也会从低点开始买入，这时候你就该离场了。

Even when things are really bad, bargain hunters will usually take it up from its lows, and that's when you get out.

所以下次你真想清仓的时候，深呼吸，等反弹再卖。

So the next time you wanna dump everything, take a deep breath and wait for the rebound before you sell.

嘿。

Hey.

说到惨不忍睹的下跌日，我再给你讲一个能帮你应对大跌的例子。

Speaking of hideous down days, I got another one that can help you handle big declines.

准备好了吗？

Ready?

当股市持续低迷时，别忘了，什么都想护着的人，最后什么也护不住。

When the stock market gets unrelentingly negative, remember that he who defends everything defends nothing.

几个世纪前，腓特烈大帝就说过这句话。

It was when Frederick the Great said that centuries ago.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

现在这句话同样成立。

It's just as true now.

所以，什么都想保的人，最终什么也保不住。

So he who defends everything defends nothing.

这到底是什么意思呢？

What exactly does it mean?

这关乎你怎么评估自己的持仓。

It's about how you evaluate your holdings.

当市场高涨、很多股票都处于牛市时，你根本不用担心大多数持仓。

When the market's flying and many stocks are in bull mode, you don't need to worry about most of your positions.

对牛市的敞口越大，情况就越好。

The more exposure to a bull market, well, let's just say, the better.

但当情况变糟、你不得不防守时，就得明白，过去好时候买进的很多股票，可能已经不适合现在的环境了。

But when things get difficult, when you're on the defensive, you need to recognize that many of the stocks you bought during better times might not fit this new environment.

简而言之，经济放缓、市场大跌时，你不能死抱着所有你喜欢的股票不放。

In short, when the economy is slowing and the market's getting slammed, you can't hang on to everything you might like.

如果你在市场转向不利时还想保住所有持仓，那简直就是自取灭亡。

If you try to defend all your positions in a market that turns against you, that's a recipe for getting blown out.

我说的‘防守’，意思是别把每个下跌的股票都当成抄底机会，这行不通。

And when I say defend, I mean, you can't treat a declining market like it's a buying opportunity in every single stock in your portfolio.

要是真这么干，很快你的资金就会耗尽，等市场继续下跌时，你就没能力再进场了——而这种情况通常都会发生。

If you do that, you'll quickly run out of capital, leaving you unprepared to buy more if we go lower still, and we usually do.

没错。

Yep.

一旦市场转跌，你就得更挑剔，把精力集中在少数关键标的上。

When the market gets negative, you need to get more selective and focus your efforts.

所以我一直给投资俱乐部的会员们排名，明确哪些股票值得信赖。

That's why I rank all my channels to trust stocks at all times for investing club members.

当你的股票被标记为‘立即买入’时，要优先选那些最弱的，而标记为‘三类’的，干脆直接卖出。

Once your stocks have buy right now, choose your stocks have buy at the weakest and threes while threes are outright sells.

有时候它们还有点反弹的力气，但只要能脱身，就是好事。

Sometimes it is some strength, but if you can get out, it's good.

这样我就能知道，在市场低迷时该坚持哪些股票，该果断抛掉哪些，把资金腾出来去布局更好的机会。

That way I'll know which stocks I should defend when things get tough and which ones I'll cut and run with and use that as a source of capital for something better.

比如说科技股现在大跌，但你认为它迟早会反弹。

So let's say tech's getting hammered, but you think it's gonna rebound.

关键是你别死抱着整个板块不放。

It's important that you don't try to hang on to the whole complex.

挑出那些最优质的科技股，趁跌势买入，其余的统统清掉，回笼资金。

Pick the best tech stocks, the ones you want to buy in the weakness, and toss out the rest to raise cash.

用这些腾出来的现金，去抄底质量更高、价格更低的科技公司股票。

Use those newfound cash reserves to buy the stocks of higher quality tech companies at lower prices.

没错。

That's right.

那些非核心的股票，没任何利好驱动，当初只是因为想蹭牛市才买的，一有风吹草动就该立刻清仓。

The non essentials, the ones that have no catalyst, and that you only owned because you wanted exposure to a bull market, they get to heave ho immediately when things turn bad.

卖，卖，卖。

Sell, sell, sell.

在我以前的对冲基金里，我们管这叫把资源集中在最看好的几只股票上。

We used to call this circling the wagons around your best names in my old hedge fund.

你刚开始这么做的时候，肯定会后悔，因为你可能会卖掉一些你本来打算长期持有的股票。

The first few times you do it, you'll curse yourself because you might be ending up putting down stocks that you love for quite some time.

但等你经历过足够多的艰难市场后，就会明白这套方法有多重要——它能帮你避开很多痛苦。

But eventually, after you experience enough difficult markets, you'll realize just how valuable this process is because it can protect you from a lot of pain.

一场痛苦的风暴。

A house of pain.

我从不同时跟超过几只亏钱的股票死磕。

I never try to battle more than a few losing names at once.

别买。

Don't buy.

别买。

Don't buy.

这确实很痛苦。

It's painful.

所以记住，你得面对大量跟你作对的股票。

So remember, you have to take on a lot of stocks that are going against you.

这会把你拖垮的。

I'll wear you it'll wear you down.

它就是会这么对你。

I it's just exactly what it's gonna do.

让你更容易在压力下崩溃，赶在最低点全抛掉。

Make it more likely that you'll crack under pressure and dump everything near the bottom.

这很人性，但你得拼死抵抗这种人性，不管用什么办法，哪怕那些老掉牙的俗语现在听起来依然有分量。

It's simply human nature, but you have to fight human nature, tooth and nail, hammer and tongs, or any of those other cliche phrases that went out of style ages ago, but still sound really solid.

说到底，优秀的投资者知道，当情绪妨碍赚钱时，该怎么无视它。

The bottom line, great investors know how to ignore their emotions when those emotions get in the way of making money.

所以下次市场大跌时，千万别慌。

So the next time the market gets slammed, please don't panic.

从来没人靠恐慌赚到过一分钱。

Nobody ever made a dime by panicking.

但也不要把你整个投资组合都押在最差的股票上。

But also don't double down your whole portfolio in the weakest.

恶劣的熊市确实会带来买入机会，但你得把资金集中在自己真正看好的标的上，而不是去追那些根本不值这个价的劣质股。

Vicious negative markets can give you buying opportunities, but you need to focus your capital on your absent favorites rather than chasing bargains in third rate merchandise that actually deserves to trade lower.

广告结束后，资金回来了。

Man money is back after the break.

欢迎回到《管好自己，别毁了自己》特别版的《Man Money》。

Welcome back to tonight's check yourself before you wreck yourself edition of Man Money.

我坚信，只要你攒下一些钱，你就掌握了自己财务命运的主动权。

I'm a big believer in the idea that once you get some money saved up, you are in control of your own financial destiny.

但这也意味着你必须格外谨慎，因为真正最有能力毁掉你财务未来的人，就是你自己。

But that also means you need to be very careful because you're the one with the most power to derail your financial future.

听好了。

Look.

投资中，犯错是不可避免的。

Mistakes will always be part of the investing game.

我只是想尽最大努力，让你别一错再错，反复犯同样的错误。

I just wanna do my best to ensure that you don't make the same mistakes twice or three times or endlessly.

所以我才定下这些规矩。

That's why I got rules.

这些投资准则能帮你避开我年轻时因为经验不足而犯过的那些错误。

Rules for investing protect you from the kind of misjudgments I used to make when I was young and inexperienced.

也就是我们在CMEC投资俱乐部里反复强调的那些原则。

The same rules we preach constantly in the CMEC Investing Club.

比如，别持有太多股票。

Rules like don't own too many stocks.

以前在石油对冲基金的时候，我每天都会花三个小时复盘前一天的错误。

Back at my oil hedge fund, I would spend three hours every day analyzing the mistakes of the day before.

我说的是真的。

I'm not kidding.

这也是我选择退休的原因之一，至少为了自己的身心健康。

One reason I'd retire, at least for my own well-being.

那是一项重大的任务。

That was a major task.

我每天早上在别人来办公室之前就完成，通常在凌晨四点到七点之间。

One that I complete every morning before anyone else came into the office, generally between 4AM and 7AM.

有些人喜欢熬夜，所以我选择早起。

Some people are night out, so I'm in early morning out.

我会仔细分析每一笔亏损的交易。

I would analyze every losing trade.

你不需要去分析盈利的交易。

You don't need to analyze the winners.

那些自己会说话。

They take care of themselves.

对吧？

Right?

然后想办法弄清楚，我怎么才能赚得更多，或者更重要的是，亏得更少。

And then try to figure out how I could have, let's say, made more money or lost less money, more importantly.

我对此简直到了走火入魔的地步。

I was, for lack of a better word, maniacal about it.

过了几年，我突然想通了。

And after a couple of years, I had an epiphany.

我意识到，业绩好其实跟持仓少直接相关，持有的股票越少越好。

I realized that good performance could be linked directly to having fewer positions, owning fewer stocks.

简单说，持有的股票越少，我们赚的钱反而越多。

In short, when we own fewer stocks, we tended to make more money.

所以从那以后，我每买一只新股票，都必须先卖掉一只旧的，哪怕是旅行信托账户里的，那也是我目前唯一能操作的渠道。

That's why ever since, I won't buy a stock without first taking a different one off the table, even from my travel trust, which is the only way I can play these days.

对。

Yep.

别一味地往更多公司里买股票。

Don't just buy shares in more and more companies.

你得控制自己的持仓数量。

You need to limit your holdings.

这种自律非常好，你得赶紧照着做。

That's a great discipline, and you should adopt it pronto.

我认识的所有糟糕的基金经理，手里都拿着几百只股票。

All the bad money managers I know have hundreds of positions.

你到底怎么管得过来这么多东西？

How the heck are you even supposed to keep track of all that?

我认识的真正优秀的基金经理，手里就那么几只股票，每一只都研究得透彻，所以他们敢在股价下跌时果断买入。

All the really good managers I know have a few names, and they know inside and out those names, which means they can confidently buy them on the way down.

所以我才说，别买太多股票。

That's why I say, please don't own too many stocks.

我知道这听起来挺受限制的。

I know it can be constraining.

你难免会卖掉一些不错的股票，去换一些没那么好的。

You'll end up selling some stocks that are good for stocks that aren't as good.

这种事确实会发生。

It does happen.

嘿。

Hey.

事后看，一切都清清楚楚。

Hindsight is twenty twenty.

但你听我说。

But take it from me.

作为一个炒股超过四十年的人，你更可能卖掉那些平平无奇的公司股票，

As someone who owns stocks for over forty years, it's far more likely you'll be selling marginal companies

去换进更好、更大、更优质的股票。

in order to get better, bigger, and in in better stocks.

这才是让投资组合真正为你服务的方式。

That's how to make portfolio really work for you.

嘿。

Hey.

顺便说一句，我当对冲基金经理时亏钱最多的一次，就是我的持仓报表厚得像砖头的时候。

By the way, the time I lost the most money as a hedge fund manager on my sheets, that's my position sheets, were thick as a brick.

我赚得最多的时候，我的持仓单就一张纸，双倍行距，却赚了几亿美金。

When I made the most money, my sheets were, well, one sheet of paper, double space, and I made hundreds of millions of dollars.

所以请记住，不管你是不是专业人士。

So please remember, when you're a pro or an amateur.

明白吗？

Okay?

不管你是谁。

Either one.

持仓太多总是有可能的。

It's always possible to have too many positions.

有个简单的原则：如果你只是为自己投资，手里的股票超过十只，就该考虑减一减了。

Rule of thumb, if you're just investing for yourself and you own more than 10 stocks, you should probably pair something back.

股票确实可以太多，但你知道吗？

So you you you can have too many stocks, but you know what?

现金倒是很难多到过剩，这正好引出我的下一条规则。

It's very hard to have too much of cash, which brings me to my next rule.

现金属于赢家。

Cash is for winners.

这个行业里人们对现金的普遍误解，真让我心痛。

The widespread version of cash in this business breaks my heart.

有时候，现金简直是完美的投资，我简直想不通，怎么这么少人会推荐它。

At times, cash is such a perfect investment that it drives me crazy how so few people ever recommend it.

现在他们讨厌市场，所以只满仓95%，不敢全仓。

Now they hate the market, so they're only 95% long instead of a 100%.

或者觉得市场不行，就拿几只热门股来对冲自己的持仓。

Or they think the market stinks, they decide to distort a few high flyers against their longs.

不对。

No.

不对。

No.

不对。

No.

作为投资者，这种做法完全是错的。

As an investor, that is absolutely the wrong way to approach things.

你不看好市场？

You don't like the market?

你不喜欢任何股票？

You don't like any stocks?

那就卖出股票吧。

Then sell stocks.

卖，卖，卖，卖股票。

Sell sell sell sell stocks.

把仓位减到和你手头的现金一样多，

Measure one as much as one,

然后把资金转成现金。

and then raise some cash.

把钱存在现金里。

Put it in cash.

别为你持有的股票买认沽期权，也别试图找出那些你肯定能赚的股票来对冲当前仓位。

Don't buy put options on the stocks you own or find out the stocks you're sure to get your current positions.

这纯粹是让你自己搞得特别复杂的东西。

That's just that's just that stuff that makes it's just too hard for you.

从概率上讲，你不可能同时在多头和空头上赢。

The odds simply do not favor you winning on both stocks, the short and the long.

这种策略的目标只是不亏不赚。

It's a strategy whose goal is mediocrity.

但如果你能腾出一些现金，等价格更低的时候再投入，这才是应对糟糕市场的最佳方式。

But if you can raise some cash and put it to work at lower levels, that's the best way to protect yourself against a lousy market.

我给你讲个小故事。

Let me tell you a little story.

我曾经是

I was one of

华尔街最大的期权交易员之一，我可以告诉你，当年我买认沽期权来对冲仓位时，几乎每次都亏钱。

the biggest option traders on Wall Street for a time, and I can tell you that when I bought put options to hedge my positions, I almost always lost money.

我什么时候赚钱了？

When did I make money?

当我买看跌期权，押注那些基本面糟糕、资金短缺，或者明显高估的股票时。

When I bought put options to profit from low quality companies with shortfalls or stocks that seem severely overvalued versus the fundamentals.

如果你对市场不满意，根本没必要把自己逼到极限去对冲下跌风险。

If you dislike the market, you don't need to bend yourself into a pencil to hedge against downside risk.

直接卖掉一些股票，转成现金，也就是期限不到一年的短期国债。

Just sell some stocks and go into cash, which is literally short term treasuries of the less than a year variety.

人们总说现金收益太低，可当美联储加息时，现金的实际回报其实高得多，他们却说不能持有现金。

People start talking about how little cash earns, although it's a lot more lucrative when the Fed's tightening, where they say it can't be it can't be in cash.

那是失败者的做法。

That's for losers.

不对。

No.

这完全错了。

That's just plain wrong.

我觉得现金是赢家的选择，尤其是当你觉得重大危机即将来临时，至于现金能赚多少利息，我根本不关心。

I say cash is for winners, especially if you think that there's a major disaster hit, and I don't care what interest you earn on that cash.

我成长的那个年代不一样。

Now I grew up in a different time.

我只在有把握的时候才会做空股票。

I only shorted stocks when I had an edge.

现在根据合约规定，我根本没法做空，连旅行信托都不行。

I can't short it all right now by contract, not even for the travel trust.

以前我还能做空的时候。

Back when I could.

我从不为了平衡持仓的多头头寸，就随便做空股票。

I didn't short stocks just for sake of having some short exposure to balance out my longs.

我不在乎是不是仓位不够。

I don't care about not having enough exposure.

我在乎的是亏钱。

I care about losing money.

我在资产管理行业算是个例外。

I was an exception in the money management business.

那才是我真正关注的重点。

That was my focus.

如果你对市场没感觉，觉得在低迷时也没啥值得入手的，那就干脆持有现金。

So if you don't like the market, if you think there's nothing compelling to buy into weakness, then just raise cash.

先站在一旁观望，等局势好转再说。

Go sit on the sidelines and wait for the situation to improve.

相信我，当你觉得市场走势完全看不懂、找不到任何让你心动的机会时，选择不操作从来都不是错的。

Believe me, it's never the wrong call when you don't like a tape where you can't find anything that truly makes sense for you.

最重要的是，千万别买太多股票，也别让现金太少。

The bottom line, always be careful not to own too many stocks and not to have too little cash.

还是跟着克莱默吧。

Stick with Cramer.

我常说，我最喜欢节目里直接回答你们的问题这一部分。

I always say my favorite part of the show is answering questions directly from you.

今天，我请来了杰夫·马克斯，我的投资组合分析搭档。

Today, I'm bringing in Jeff Marks, my portfolio analyst partner in crime.

他来帮大家解答一些最迫切的问题，因为你们的问题通常都挺有挑战性的。

Help me answer some of your most burning questions because usually have some tough ones.

对于已经加入投资俱乐部的朋友们，杰夫你们肯定不陌生。

For those of you who are part of the investing club, Jeff will need no introduction.

还没加入的，希望你们很快就会成为一员。

For those of you who aren't, I hope you will be soon.

我觉得杰夫的见解，加上我们之间的讨论，让我能更好地为《疯狂金钱》的观众和俱乐部成员服务。

I would say that Jeff's insight and our back and forth helped me to do a great job for Mad Money viewers as well as members of the club.

每个月我们开会时，都会一起做这样的分析，深入聊聊最新的投资决策。

Jeff and I do this sort of thing during all our monthly meetings where we give you an in-depth look at our latest portfolio decisions.

每一只股票都会谈到，你们关心的问题也都会一一回应。

We talk about every single stock and answer your burning questions.

如果你们喜欢这样的内容，那就赶紧加入俱乐部吧。

If you like this to be something to keep up with, I need you to join the club.

顺便说一声，非常感谢那些在街上拦住我、说喜欢这个俱乐部的人。

And thank you, by the way, to people who stop me on the street who love the club.

这对我来说意义重大。

It means the world to me.

那我们先来看迈克尔的问题，他来自我的家乡宾夕法尼亚州，问：你们怎么看股息再投资策略？

So let's start with a question from Michael, my home state of Pennsylvania, who asked, what do you think about dividend reinvestment strategies?

好的。

Okay.

杰夫，我最早学到的一件事，也是我在高盛时教过大家的，那就是这是金融行业少有的稳赚不赔的机会。

So, Jeff, one of the first things I learned and what I taught at Goldman Sachs was it it's one of the great few lunches of our business.

你只要一直持有不动，我这一辈子亲眼见过，股息再投资能带来多么惊人的回报。

You just keep letting it ride, and I have seen in my lifetime the dramatic amount of money you make from the dividend reinvestment.

没错。

Yeah.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

这就是通过每季度再投资股息，利用复利力量的方式。

That's how you take advantage of the power of compounding by reinvesting those dividends quarter after quarter.

当然，除非你需要这笔收入，具体还得看你的人生阶段，但一般来说，始终应该选择再投资。

Now unless you need the income, of course, depending on where you are in in your life, that that may be a reason not to, but always reinvest.

无论是消费日用品这类高股息股票，还是有些也派发股息的科技股，这种方法都同样有效。

And it works for high dividend stocks like a consumer packaged goods stock or even tech stocks too that offer a dividend.

拥有这种机制真的很好。

It it's a good thing to have.

这还是另一种以美元成本平均法建仓的方式。

It's another way to dollar cost average into positions

而且也很实用。

as well.

我的意思是，

I mean,

我记得以前和我已故的父亲讨论过这个，他一直坚持说，拿到钱就该赶紧花掉。

I remember going over this with my late father where he was, you know, adamant you just take the money and run.

我试着向他解释，最后总算说动了他，别那样做。

And I tried to show him and manage to convince him, no.

拿分红回来，再投进去。

Take the money and be back in.

重新投资。

Reinvest.

现在我们来回答来自加利福尼亚的约翰的问题。

Now we're taking a question from John in California.

他问，你每天都会看哪些信息来源，来了解股市和整体经济情况？

Asked, what are your source of information related to stocks in the overall market economy, sources that you go to daily?

好的。

Alright.

说实话。

Well, look.

我从不隐瞒这一点。

I I make no bones about it.

我们手头有全世界最全面的研究资料。

I we have all the research in the world.

我们运气不错的一点是，能接触到所有人的研究，我通常会让这些研究来主导决策。

And what's one of the great things of the luck that we have is we get everybody's research, and I tend to let that control things.

顺便说一句，当我紧急跟进时，我会重点看当天最重要的几通研究电话。

As, by the way, when I do the mad dash, and I talk about what may be the most important reach research calls of the day.

我们确实很幸运，能拥有这些资源。

So we we're blessed with that.

好的。

Alright.

现在我们来听一下来自马里兰州的尼诺的问题：在每个行业里，你们会不会设定一个市盈率上限，超过就不买？

Now let's go to Nino in Maryland who asked, is there a p multiple that won't that we won't buy above in each sector?

这其实挺难说的，尤其是在科技领域，我们得看未来几年的预期。

Well, this is really tricky because when you're in tech, we have to use out years.

比如英伟达，如果我死守原则，只愿意出20倍市盈率，那我早就错过它了，因为英伟达的价值在于未来的盈利潜力。

So for instance, NVIDIA, if I had discipline and said that I wouldn't pay more than 20 times earnings, I would have kept out NVIDIA for a decade because NVIDIA is about future earnings.

是的

Yeah.

我觉得你还得看看公司的增长速度。

And I think you also have to look at a company's growth rate too.

这完全是相对市盈率的问题。

It's all relative PE.

你可以把增长速度和市盈率放在一起对比着看。

So you can compare the growth rates relative to their multiples.

我不觉得真有什么固定倍数会让我直接避开。

I don't think there's necessarily one that would, keep me out.

但反过来，也不能光看市盈率低就以为是便宜货，有时候那其实是价值陷阱。

But also on the other hand, you can't look at a low multiple and two and say that's a good bargain because sometimes there's value traps.

价值陷阱。

Value traps.

它们市盈率低，肯定是有原因的。

They are low multiple for a reason.

它们的盈利可能在下滑，或者公司本身存在其他根本性问题。

They could have declining earnings, or there just might be another issue fundamentally of company.

说得很对。

Great point.

人们看汽车股的时候，历来都给它们很低的市盈率，主要靠股息回报。

I mean, when people look at the the automobile stocks, they have historically had very low multiples and trade on dividends.

要是哪天它们真能像特斯拉那样增长，股价早就涨到现在的三倍了。

If they ever really got the growth of a Tesla, the stocks are triple the way they are.

总之，谢谢你，杰夫。

So anyway, thank you, Jeff.

我总觉得，总有一个牛市在某个地方等着我们。

I'd like to say there's always bull market somewhere.

我现在就在这档《疯狂金钱》里，帮你找找看。

I'm trying to find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

下次见。

See you next time.

吉姆·克雷默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人的意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将克雷默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克雷默的观点基于他所认为可靠的资讯，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/mad-money-disclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash mad money disclaimer.

美国哪些州最适合做生意？

Which are America's top states for business?

获取全部数据和详细的各州分析。

Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.

看看你的州表现如何。

See how your state measures up.

美国最适合经商的州有哪些。

America's top states for business.

立即前往 topstates.cnbc.com 查看完整榜单。

See the full list now at topstates.cnbc.com.