Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/22/26

那好吧，我们回头再说。

So then, okay, let's go back.

因为股价从不说谎。

Because stocks tell truth.

那今天为什么跌了9%？

Why did it fall 9% today?

盈利不及预期是事实，而且股价之前已经涨得差不多了。

The earnings miss was real, and the stock had also gone practically power bogged.

你猜我对那种涨到极限的情况怎么看？

You know what I think about power bogged situations?

也就是说，GE Vernova 得拿出惊人的表现，股价才能继续往上冲。

Meaning GE Vernova needed to deliver something spectacular to keep climbing.

结果呢，他们公布的季度业绩乍一看挺让人失望，但仔细一看其实还挺扎实的。

Instead, they report a quarter that was disappointing at first glance, even if it looks pretty strong under closer examination.

另外，整个AI基础设施板块最近几周一直承压，投资者都在怀疑，大型云服务商还能撑多久大手笔花钱，有人觉得他们像醉汉一样挥霍。

Plus, broader AI infrastructure trade has been under pressure for weeks now as investors question how long hyperscalers can continue to spend some people feel like drunken sailors.

这些担忧确实有道理。

Those are legitimate concerns.

GE Vernova 现在股价对应市盈率高达 33 倍，绝对不算便宜。

The g Vernova certainly isn't a cheap stock up here at 33 times earnings.

过去十二个月涨了超过 74%，我觉得回调是迟早的事。

After gaining more than 74% in twelve months, I think you could argue it was due for a pullback.

但这一季度的财报并没有动摇我看多的根本理由。

But I don't see anything in this quarter that breaks the bull thesis.

订单量增长了 88%。

Orders increased 88%.

三个月内，未完成订单增加了 130 亿美元。

Backlog rose by 13,000,000,000 in three months.

公司预计到年底，合同内的燃气设备装机容量至少将达到 125 吉瓦。

The company expects at least a 125 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract by year end.

每季度的涡轮机产量正从约 3 吉瓦提升到 5 吉瓦。

Turbine outputs increasing from about three gigawatts per quarter to five gigawatts.

电气化业务收入有机增长了29%，利润率提升了700个基点，数据中心的订单量已经超过了去年全年的总和。

Electrification revenue grew 29% organically, and margin expanded by 700 basis points, and data center orders have already more than doubled last year's total.

你看。

Look.

现在拖后腿的，就只有风电这一块了。

It's only that wind business that's weighing this thing down.

说白了。

Here's the bottom line.

是的。

Sure.

Vernova确实没达到盈利预期，我也挺失望的，但问题出在风电上。

Gee, Vernovan did miss its earnings, and I was upset by that, but it was because of wind.

它手上有庞大的订单 backlog，这全靠涡轮机和电气化业务的强劲表现。

It's got an incredible backlog, thanks to the strength in turbines electrification.

一看订单簿和公司的扩产计划，我就对它的未来充满信心，这正是我看好今天回调的原因。

When you look at the order book and how the company's expanding production, it makes me very confident of the future, which is why I see today's decline.

确实，现在是个买入的好机会，但华尔街就是看不穿这次盈利不及预期的阴影。

Actually, yes, indeed, there's a buying opportunity, but Wall Street can't seem to look past the earnings miss.

不过我要说，如果股价一跌再跌，跌到史无前例的低位，那我完全支持你趁低吸纳。

I would say this though, if cheaper than ever keeps getting hammered, you got my blessing to keep buying on weakness.

说不定你还会发现，我的资本信托也在跟你同步买入，毕竟我们早年买入的成本低得多。

And you might find my capital trust buying right alongside you even as we have a much lower cost basis from long ago.

广告后回来继续聊这笔资金的去向。

That money is back after the break.

接下来是通用汽车，最新财报出来后，股价蠢蠢欲动，克拉默将深入剖析，看看这只股票有没有可能大幅上涨。

Coming up with GM revving its engines following its latest report, Cramer's going under the hood to see if the stock is ready to race higher.

下一个。

Next.

是什么让你有信心去尝试一件前所未有的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我从不害怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开创先河的女性，正在重塑格局。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

其中之一

One of

我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的上司的上司需要什么。

my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种不同的表现形式。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，

Life is short, and

要想成就大事，就得有大格局。

you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持 CNBC 的变革者与影响力人物节目。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

新节目每周二上线，各大播客平台都能收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

好的。

Alright.

咱们来聊聊通用汽车昨天早上公布的这个惊人季度业绩吧。

Why don't we make up this incredible quarter that General Motors reported yesterday morning?

这支股票长期表现非常出色，过去十二个月涨幅超过百分之五十，但绝大部分涨幅都集中在2025年下半年。

Here's the stock that's done very well long term, and even in the last twelve months, it's up over 50%, but pretty much all those gains were in the second half of twenty twenty five.

今年到目前为止，通用汽车的股价只涨了百分之一。

Year to date, GM's only up a percent.

今年一开始，很多人都预期美联储会降息。

Coming to this year, a lot of people expected we get fed rate cuts.

我本来也是这么想的。

And I thought I was one of those people.

降息对汽车行业来说是天大的利好，因为能让买车贷款的成本更低。

And those are a gift to the auto industry because they make it cheaper to get financing when you buy a car.

但我们根本没有降息。

But we've had no rate cuts.

相反，我们迎来了与伊朗的战争，导致油价和债券市场设定的长期利率双双飙升。

Instead, we got this war with Iran that's caused a spike in both oil prices and long term interest rates set by the bond market.

加息的可能性现在也被提上了日程。

Rate increases could be in the agenda.

四月份战争缓和时，吉姆本打算反弹。

When the war wound down in April, Jim was about to mount a comeback.

但自从上个月我们再次开火后，股价就暴跌了。

But since we once started shooting again last month, the stock got slammed.

从85美元跌到了75美元，正好回到昨天财报发布前的水平。

Fell from 85 to 75 where it was sitting right before yesterday's earnings report.

幸运的是，通用汽车昨天公布的业绩简直爆了。

Fortunately, when GM reported yesterday, they shot the lights out.

股价先是跳涨了5%，今天又再涨了3%。

And the stock shot up 5% before tacking on another 3% today.

但这家公司营收大幅超出预期，实现了近2%的增长。

Yet this company posted a sizable revenue beat putting up nearly 2% growth.

华尔街原本预期会出现小幅下滑。

Wall Street was looking for a small decline.

更棒的是。

Even better.

通用汽车每股盈利3.57美元。

GM earned $3.57 per share.

分析师原本预计是3.19美元。

Analysts will expect them to earn $3.19.

同比增长高达41%，这可真不错。

That's 41% earnings growth year over year much, thanks.

而主要原因，主要是利润率高于预期。

And, yeah, mostly it was because of higher than expected margins.

对于复杂的汽车业财报来说，华尔街特别看重利润率的增长。

Now Wall Street loves margin growth when it comes to the complicated auto earnings reports.

最棒的是，管理层连续第二个季度上调了全年预测。

Best of all, management raised their full year forecast for the second straight quarter.

提高了对汽车业务自由现金流和每股收益的预期。

Taking up its guidance for automotive free cash flow and earnings per share.

现在来说说具体进展。

Now here's the cadence.

年初时，通用汽车预计2026年每股盈利在11到13美元之间。

At the start of the year, GM flooded would earn $11 to $13 per share in 2026.

第一季度之后，他们把区间调到了11.50到13.50美元。

After the first quarter, they went to $11.50 to $13.50.

现在他们说，区间是12到14美元，中间值是13美元。

Now they are saying 12 to $14 at the $13 midpoint.

你听听这个。

Get this.

这相当于比去年增长了23%。

We represented 23% increase from last year.

他们是怎么做到的？

How'd they do it?

通用汽车本季度的强劲表现主要得益于其北美核心业务，该地区息税前利润增长了近43%。

GM's strong quarter was driven by its core North American business with earnings before interest and taxes up almost 43% in the region.

这背后完全是利润率的大幅提升。

Again, that's all about much higher margins.

在电话会议上，低调的首席执行官玛丽·巴尔表示：‘北美市场的需求保持稳定，尤其是我们的皮卡和SUV，定价也保持平稳。’

On the conference call, the self effacing CEO Mary Barr explained that, quote, customer demand in North America remains steady, including for our pickups and SUVs, and pricing is consistent, end quote.

她还补充说，尽管今年大部分时间库存都低于目标水平，但我们在美国全尺寸皮卡市场的份额上半年已超过42%，比最接近的竞争对手高出10个百分点以上。

She goes on to say, despite lower than larger, lower than target inventories for most of the year, our share of The US full size pickup market stands at more than 42 through the first half of the year, which is more than 10 percentage points above our closest competitor.

而且我们在第二季度和上半年的市场份额都实现了同比增长。'

And we grew share year over year in both the second quarter and the first half, end quote.

真厉害。

Wow.

说实话，通用汽车在皮卡业务上的强大表现，往往被低估了。

Honestly, GM rarely gets enough credit for the strength of its pickup truck business.

你瞧。

Look.

福特F-150在过去近五十年里一直是美国最畅销的皮卡。

The Ford f one fifty has been the best selling pickup in America for nearly five decades.

但雪佛兰和GMC这两个品牌加起来，通用汽车的竞争实力非常强。

But between the Chevrolet and GMC brands, General Motors is extremely competitive.

公司昨天表示，它有望连续第七年领跑全尺寸皮卡市场。

Company said yesterday that it's on track to lead the industry in full size pickups for the seventh straight years.

这可不短啊。

That's a long time.

在全尺寸SUV领域，通用汽车依然占据主导地位，把雪佛兰塔霍和苏必利尔，加上GMC育空和育空XL的销量合起来算。

And in the full size SUVs, GM remains dominant when you combine the Chevy Tahoe and Suburban with the GMC Yukon and Yukon XL.

这些SUV的销量是对手的三倍，而且优惠少、库存紧。

Those SUV sales are three times the size of the nearest competitor with very low incentives and tight inventories.

总体来看，通用汽车有望连续第五十二年领跑全尺寸SUV市场。

Overall, GM's on track to lead the industry in full size SUVs for the fifty second straight year.

跨界车的表现也很出色。

The crossovers are doing great too.

通用汽车在美国整车销量中仍位居第一，完成了五年来最好的上半年车队销售业绩。

GM also remained number one in total US fleet sales, capping off its best first half in more than five years for fleet sales.

其中包括自2009年以来最高的政府订单，以及受强劲商业需求推动的全尺寸皮卡销售纪录。

That includes its highest government sales since 2009 and record full size pickup sales driven by strong commercial demand.

今年早些时候，吉姆宣布缩减电动汽车的布局，公司因此累计计提了近110亿美元的费用，其中仅上个季度就达23亿美元。

Now earlier this year, Jim announced that it was scaling back its electric vehicle ambitions, and the company's taken cumulative charges of nearly $11,000,000,000 related to this restructuring, including $2,300,000,000 in the quarter they just reported.

但正是退出电动车领域的决定，保住了通用汽车的利润率。

But the move away from electrics is exactly what saved GM's margins.

而且，尽管电动车已不再是重点，他们在美国电动车市场仍排名第二，占有13%的份额。

Plus, even though they've made this a much lower priority, they're still the number two player in the American electric vehicle sales, 13% market share.

正如吉姆所解释的，公司整体表现强劲，有几项指标特别突出。

As Jim explained, the overall strength of the business, there were a couple of things that stood out.

首先，吉姆正凭借技术优势将自己与竞争对手区分开来。

First, Jim is separating itself from the pack with its technology.

公司的OnStar业务，也就是他们的安全与互联平台，收入达到8亿美元，同比增长20%，递延收入更是飙升了近50%。

The company's on star business, their safety and connectivity platform, and 800,000,000 in revenues up 20% year over year, and its deferred revenue was up nearly 50% year over year.

这其中一部分要归功于通用汽车的Super Cruise半自动驾驶免手扶驾驶技术。

Some of that's thanks to GM's Super Cruise semi autonomous hands free driver systems technology.

本季度Super Cruise的确认收入同比增长了70%，新增用户约7万人。

This quarter recognized revenue for Super Cruise was up 70% year over year, and the company added about 70,000 new subscribers.

第二，通用汽车在定价上一直很有竞争力。

Second, GM continues to be very competitive on pricing.

公司表示，已经连续三年保持了稳健的定价策略，也因此成为行业内促销补贴最低的车企之一。

The company said it had three consecutive years of pricing discipline, which in turn is why they now have some of the lowest incentive spending in the industry.

他们根本不需要大幅降价来吸引顾客，因为他们的价格从来就没涨得离谱过。

They don't need to cut prices deeply in order to lure you in because their pricing never got insanely out of hand to begin with.

最后，通用汽车在优化成本结构方面非常积极。

Finally, GM has been aggressive about improving its cost structure.

过去三年，公司的整体利润率提升了70个基点。

They've seen 70 basis points of total company margin expansion over the past three years.

我知道听起来不多，但你要是知道通用的主要竞争对手在同一时期利润率却缩水了400个基点，你就明白这有多厉害了。

I know that that doesn't sound like much until you realize that GM's major competitors have seen their margins shrink by 400 basis points over the same period.

明白了吧？

Get it?

总的来说，通用现在各方面都进展得相当不错。

All told, everything seems to be going pretty darn well for GM.

但说实话，这个故事最棒的地方在于，它的股价还很便宜。

But the best part of the story frankly is that the stock's cheap.

现在想找便宜的股票可不容易了。

Can't find a lot of cheap stocks right now.

对吧？

Right?

即使过去两天涨了8%，它的股价也只相当于全年盈利预测中值的6.2倍。

Even with its 8% gain over the last two days, this thing sells for 6.2 times the midpoint of full year earnings forecast.

是的。

Yeah.

市盈率6.2。

6.2 PE.

这种估值通常只出现在那种快撑不住的周期性行业里。

That's the kind of multiple you expect from a boom and bust cyclical business that's about to go bust.

吉姆的业务确实有周期性，但它的盈利是在上升，而不是下降。

Jim is very cyclical, but its earnings are going higher, not lower.

除非战争升级导致油价冲上三位数，否则我觉得这趋势还会继续。

And I'd expect that to continue unless the war of the rain gets much more extreme, sending oil to the triple digits.

研究这家公司的分析师们，普遍预计2027和2028年盈利还会继续增长。

The analysts who cover this thing certainly expect more growth in 2027 and 2028.

如果GM的股价能稍微往上重估一下，那涨幅会非常惊人。

Now if GM stock can get what we call rerated higher just a little bit, the gains, they'd be enormous.

就算它只涨到按明年盈利算的8倍市盈率，这股价从现在的82美元左右，也能涨到119美元。

Even if it only starts trading at eight times earnings based on next year's estimates, which seems reasonable, this now $82 and change stock would go to $119.

别开玩笑了。

Come on.

当然，这并不意味着市场会改变主意。

Of course, that doesn't mean the market will change its mind.

就像今年上半年我们看到的那样，这只股票受宏观因素制约，尤其是油价的剧烈波动。

As we saw in the first half of the year, the stock is hostage to macro forces, especially the volatile price of oil.

但关键是，当我们希望一定程度上分散对芯片的依赖时，我觉得通用汽车是个绝佳的选择。

But the bottom line, at a time when we're looking to diversify away from check, at least to some degree, I think General Motors is terrific idea.

尽管环境艰难，通用汽车刚刚公布了令人惊艳的季度业绩，得益于汽车业务的出色执行。

Despite a tough environment, GM just reported an amazing quarter fueled by automakers, phenomenal execution.

考虑到股价目前仅相当于未来盈利的六倍多，我坚信这里还有很大的上涨空间，尤其是如果中东能迎来和平的话。

Given that the stocks held for barely more than six times earnings, I'm betting there's plenty of upside here, especially if peace breaks out in The Middle East.

油价越高，我们的政府越有可能达成某种协议。

And the higher the price of oil goes, the more likely it is that our government will cut some kind of deal.

现在我们连线俄亥俄州的唐。

Now we wanna go to Don in Ohio.

唐。

Don.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

我当初以220美元建仓了全美保险。

I started a position in Allstate at $220.

现在股价已经超过250美元了。

It's now over $2.50.

你觉得它接下来会怎么走？

Where do you see it going?

你看啊。

Look.

全美保险这公司稳得很。

Allstate is a steady Eddie.

我平时不太提它。

I don't talk about it much.

表现一直不错。

It's been good.

我不太提它，是因为它属于低市盈率股票，而且保险这行对很多人来说太难懂了，但Allstate确实表现很出色。

The reason why don't talk about it is frankly, it's a low multiple stock and in a business that's really hard to understand for a lot of people, but Allstate's been a winner.

我只能说，恭喜你。

And all I can say is congratulations.

你做得很好。

You did a good job.

我们接下来连线纽约的丽贝卡。

Let's go to Rebecca in New York.

丽贝卡。

Rebecca.

你好。

Hi.

晚上好，克拉默先生。

Good evening, mister Cramer.

我想

I'd like

想了解一下

to know what

您对福特怎么看？

your opinion is on Ford.

过去几年，是什么让福特一直低迷呢？

It's like what was really sinking the past, like, here Well few years.

你知道吗，福特这个情况。

You know, Ford look.

我一直认为福特被严重低估了。

I I I have a long standing belief that Ford is very undervalued.

明白吗？

Okay?

它得把保修服务改进一下，我觉得现在正在好转。

It needs to get the warranty thing better, and I think it's doing that.

现在股价才相当于盈利的八倍。

It sells for only eight times earnings.

我的问题是，通用汽车更便宜，但我得说，吉姆·法利确实在尽全力扭转局面。

My problem is GM is cheaper, but I will say that I think that that Jim Farley's doing everything he can to get it right.

他接手的烂摊子比大家想的要难得多，但他正在一步步做对。

The legacy of what he inherited is a lot tougher than people thought, but he's getting it right.

从长远来看，我不明白为什么有人愿意用4%的股息去买它。

And over time, I can't seek why you buy it with a 4% yield.

你还能怎么亏钱呢？

How are gonna get hurt?

我知道这可能不合你的胃口，但过去一年股价已经涨了，我觉得并不贵。

I know that may not beat up for you, but the stock is up in past year, and I don't think it's expensive.

如果你想找点科技股之外的配置，我觉得通用汽车是个不错的选择。

Anyway, if you're looking to diversify away from tech, I think general voters is a great way to do it.

不是说它在进步，但通用汽车确实更便宜一些。

Not sliding forward, but GM is a little cheaper.

那现在，关于《疯狂金钱》和我刚做的服务-now财报专访，你怎么看？

Now, what's more Mad Money and including my post earnings exclusive with service now?

那我准许你好好琢磨琢磨，天哪，这可太能猜了。

Then I give you my blessing to, oh, boy, speculate.

只要你别瞎折腾，理智操作就行。

So long as you do it wisely.

昨晚闪电轮里有一只股票，让我想起了这一点。

One stock in last night's lightning round reminded me of that.

我知道你们有多聪明。

I know how smart you guys are.

我一直在听。

I listen.

我这就告诉你。

I'll reveal it.

当然了，今晚闪电轮的决定，你们所有的来电都算数。

And, of course, all your calls have been fired tonight's decision of the lightning round.

我是大卫·克雷默。

This is David Cramer.

过去一年多来，企业软件股一直被人工智能竞争的担忧压得喘不过气。

For over a year now, the enterprise software stocks have been crushed by worries about competition from AI.

拿ServiceNow来说，这家曾经备受青睐的公司，帮企业自动化各种IT和后台流程。

Take the stock of ServiceNow, a once beloved company that helps businesses automate all sorts of IT and back office processes.

截至今天收盘，这只股票今年已经跌了近38%，从去年一月的历史高点算起，更是跌了超过60%。

As of today's close, this stock was down almost 38% year to date and more than 60% from its all time high in January of last year.

市场根本没指望它能有什么好表现，所以一到财报前，股价就被砸得稀烂。

Nobody expected anything good here, which is why the stock got pulverized today in anticipation of earnings.

但收盘后，ServiceNow公布的业绩却超出预期，营收连续四个季度下滑后，首次出现加速增长。

But after the close, ServiceNow reported a nice top and bottom line beat with its revenue growth accelerating for the first time in four quarters.

更让人意外的是，他们还上调了全年订阅收入的预测。

On top of that, they raised their full year forecast for subscription revenue.

结果发现，生意其实挺不错，所以盘后交易中股价立马反弹了。

Turns out business is pretty good, which is why the stock bounced in after hours trading.

今晚早些时候，我有机会跟ServiceNow的董事长兼首席执行官比尔·麦克德莫特聊了聊。

Earlier tonight, I got a chance to speak with Bill McDermott, the chairman and CEO of ServiceNow.

你看看。

Take a look.

麦克德莫特先生，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

Mister McDermott, welcome back to Mad Money.

吉姆，很高兴能回来。

Jim, great to be with you.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我很好。

I'm fine.

也希望您一切顺利，先生。

I hope you are too, sir.

我很好，吉姆。

I am, Jim.

能重返你的节目，真高兴。

Great to be back on your show.

好的。

Okay.

所以，账单和收入增长都有了明显的加速。

So, bill, revenue growth, some serious acceleration.

之前大家确实有点担心。

People were concerned.

过去几个季度，增长没达到预期。

Maybe the the last couple quarters, they didn't have the growth that they wanted.

但这次季度的数据表明，你的订单量明显强劲多了。

This seemed to be the quarter where you definitely have pretty strong bookings.

表现不错。

Looks good.

确实很棒，吉姆。

It's been great, Jim.

我们是增长最快的大型企业软件公司，同时也是领先的网络安全公司，现在我们的运营效率达到了56法则。

You know, we're the fastest growing major enterprise software company and now cybersecurity company, and we're operating at the rule of 56.

公司现在全面提速，运转得非常好。

So the company's firing on all cylinders.

这个面向商业转型的AI控制塔，真正推动了人工智能的应用，同时通过各类智能代理、关键基础设施和设备，确保企业安全无虞。

This AI control tower for business reinvention, really driving AI, but keeping these companies secure with all the agents, all the critical infrastructure networks and devices.

我们做的是网络安全业务，吉姆。

We're in the cyber business, Jim.

没错。

Yes.

你看。

Look.

ServiceNow 就是智能型企业的蓝图。

The ServiceNow is blueprint for agentic business.

今天看到 OpenAI 和 Hugging Face 的动态后，我觉得这份文件简直太出色了。

After what happened today with OpenAI and Hugging Face, I thought that this was a a brilliant document.

我之前都不知道，你们居然为财富五百强中很大一部分企业提供这项服务。

And I did not know that you do this, what, for a huge percentage of the Fortune five hundred, you're involved in this.

没错。

Absolutely.

事实上，现在这个AI控制塔正帮助财富五百强企业从AI混乱走向有序管理。

In fact, right now, the AI control tower is really taking the Fortune five hundred from AI chaos to AI discipline.

比如，你知道，令牌消耗已经成了一个大问题，这一点你也清楚。

For example, you know, this token consumption has become a big issue, as you know.

我们负责管理这些，执行相关策略，应对如今媒体上关于AI的各种乱象。

We manage that, enforce those policies, and the kinds of things that are happening in the media today around AI.

我们还设置了紧急关闭机制，能立即终止失控的AI代理。

We have a kill switch that stops AI agents that go rogue.

有了这些措施，这类问题就不会发生，只要企业用了ServiceNow，就根本不用担心。

So those things don't need to happen, and they wouldn't happen when companies run ServiceNow.

明白了。

Okay.

不过我们确实得弄清楚，为什么股价一直在跌，这中间肯定有原因。

Now we do have to try to figure out there is a puzzle because the stock has been going lower.

确实有一些人提出了反对意见。

There's been a pushback by some.

我来念一个例子给你听。

I'm just gonna read you one.

有位分析师说，ServiceNow 现在看起来不错，但客户以后会签更短的合同，争取更优惠的条款，因为 AI 竞争越来越激烈。

One analyst said, sure, ServiceNow is doing fine now, but customers are going to sign shorter contracts and negotiate better terms for their deals because of the emergence of AI competition.

你之前已经反驳过这个观点了，对吧？

Now you've pushed back on this point, haven't you?

当然了，你只要看看我们的续约率就知道了，高达 98%，是业内最高的。

Of course, because all you have to do is look at, first of all, our renewal rate, which is the best in the industry at 98%.

再看我们合同的期限，实际上还在变长，这一点在 CRPO——当前剩余履约义务和公司剩余履约义务上都有明确体现，而且这些数据的增长速度跟我们的订阅收入一样快。

You look at the term of our contracts, they have actually gotten longer and that is measurable in CRPO, the current remaining performance obligations and the remaining performance obligations in the company, which are growing as fast as our subscription revenues.

所以这个说法根本不符合事实。

So that is actually factually incorrect.

吉姆，从大局来看，投资者最关心的问题到底是什么？

And Jim, when you think about the big picture here, what is the big question for investors?

他们需要一家公司，其系统能成为全球最大、最成功企业的IT核心记录系统。

They want a company that has a system of record with the IT system of record for the biggest, most successful companies in the world.

我们每年处理一万亿个工作流，八万亿笔交易。

We have 100,000,000,000 workflows, 8,000,000,000,000 transactions a year.

我们掌控并规范全球大型企业中所有人工智能的运行，所有定价都基于实际成果。

We govern and regulate all the AI in the major enterprises in the world and everything around pricing is outcome based.

尽管我们采用成果导向的模式，且一半的新客户收入来自按使用量计费，客户依然非常欣赏我们提供的定价混合可预测性。

But yet, even as we do outcome based and half of our revenue in our net new cases are going to consumption, our customers love that we give hybrid predictability in the pricing.

他们还喜欢我们统一管理所有智能代理的定价，因为我们掌控着所有代理的运行。

And they also love that we're managing the pricing on everyone's agents because we're controlling everyone's agents.

明白了。

Okay.

你可以这样想。

So think about it this way.

吉姆，人工智能只会越来越多。

Jim, there's going to be more AI.

未来会出现更多的事件。

There's going to be more incidents.

所有这些因素都会让越来越多的流量涌入ServiceNow，从而推动收入增长。

And all these things drive more and more volume to ServiceNow, which drives revenue.

这也会带动未履行合同收入，所以我们才上调了全年预期。

It drives RPO, and that's why we increased the full year guide.

因此我们告诉市场，到2030年之前，我们的市值将突破三千二百亿美元，对此我们充满信心。

That's why we told the markets we'll be a $32,000,000,000 plus company between now and 2030, and we couldn't be more confident.

明白了。

Okay.

我们正处在所有趋势的核心位置。

We're in the bull's eye of everything.

我明白你的意思。

Well, I I hear you on that.

我只是想再确认一下，让观众真正听清楚大家在说什么，因为他们可能会问：为什么股价下跌了？

I just wanna, again, be sure that our viewers are getting what people are saying because they're probably saying, why is the stock down?

我来念一段来自KeyBank分析师杰克逊·内德的内容。

I'm gonna read you, something from KeyBank analyst Jackson Nader.

他周一发布了对你们报告的点评，他说：‘我们从客户那里了解到，有些人提前九个月就续签了大合同，就是为了避开7月1日切换到新定价模式后即将上涨的费用。’

He published a review of your report on Monday, he said, quote, we have heard from customers that they renewed large contracts early, nine months early in one case, in order to avoid the large pricing increase that was going to be imposed upon them had they made the switch over to the new pricing model on July 1.

有没有可能你们把一些合同的签约时间提前了？

Is there a chance that you pulled forward some of these contracts?

不可能。

No.

绝对没有这回事，我也不清楚他提到的涨价指的是什么。

There's no chance, and I don't know what that reference is to a price increase.

事实上，我看到的唯一价格上涨，是跟我们业务量增长挂钩的。

In fact, the only prices that I can see increasing are the ones that are associated with how much more business that we are doing.

我们业务量越大，反而会降低单价。

So we are increasing the volume And when people do more business with us, we actually lower the price.

我对这些片面的说法一无所知，但我可以明确告诉你，吉姆。

So I'm unaware of these cherry picking stories, but I can tell you this, Jim.

事实胜于雄辩。

The proof is in the pudding.

还有谁像我们今天这样发布了这样的业绩？

Who else put out a print like we put out today?

还有谁在超出预期上限的同时，还上调了全年指引？

Who else has beaten the high end of their guidance and raising their annual guide?

企业圈里现在议论很多，专家也一大堆。

You know, there's a lot of talk out there in the enterprise, and there's a lot of experts.

但企业界其实有点像政坛。

But, you know, the enterprise is a little bit like politics.

说得多，做得少；我们ServiceNow进展显著，别处却没多少动静。

You know, a lot of talk, a lot of progress at ServiceNow, not a lot of progress everywhere else.

但是

But there

我想说声抱歉。

And I would like to say I'm sorry.

说吧。

Go ahead.

对不起。

I'm sorry.

请讲。

Please.

我本来想说，这事儿马上就要定下来了，就是黄仁勋那边。

Well, I was just gonna say that it's gonna close Jensen Huang.

我觉得黄仁勋的看法挺有分量的。

I think Jensen has a good one.

他说，ServiceNow 必将成为企业级 AI 代理操作平台的王者，NVIDIA 也这么说。

He says, ServiceNow is destined to be the best platform in the operating system enterprise a AI agents, NVIDIA.

在我看来，这话已经能说明问题了。

To me, that's somewhat dispositive of how things are going.

我觉得，真正代表 AI 时代声音的，就是黄仁勋，还有这家市值最高的上市公司。

I would say, you know, the ultimate voice of the AI generation is Jensen and the most valuable publicly traded company.

我在这儿的七年里，我们一直在用Jensen的AI做开发。

We've been building with Jensen AI for the seven years that I've been here.

我在这儿的每一个季度，我们都超出了预期。

We beat every single quarter that I've been here.

这次我们也超出了预期。

We beat this one.

我们上调了全年业绩指引。

We raised full year guidance.

有大量客户都非常喜欢ServiceNow。

We have so many customers that love ServiceNow.

吉姆，我们现在已经有六个独角兽企业，估值都达到十亿美元甚至上百亿美元。

We have six unicorns now, Jim, that are at $1,000,000,000 or multiple billions.

我们马上又要推出一个新的了。

We're about to launch another one.

我告诉市场，AI控制塔会成为一个大趋势，因为未来几年将有二十亿个智能代理进入全球劳动力市场。

I told the market AI control tower was going to be a big thing because there's 2,200,000,000 agents entering the global workforce in the next couple of years.

那你怎么管理这么多身份呢？

So how are you going to manage all of these identities?

那些在企业里拥有庞大安装基础和代理的优秀软件公司，你又怎么应对？

How are you going to manage the other very good software companies in the enterprise that have big install bases and their agents?

目前只有一家公司能从工作流一直覆盖到网络安全。

Well, there is only one company that goes all the way through from workflow now to cybersecurity.

我们是企业里增长最快的网络安全公司，现在也成了第八大企业级网络安全厂商。

You know, we're the fastest growing cybersecurity company in the enterprise, and now we're the eighth largest cybersecurity company in the enterprise.

想象一下，要管理整整一万亿个工作流，八万亿笔交易，对吧？

So think about managing literally a 100,000,000,000 workflows, 8,000,000,000,000 transactions Right.

七百亿台设备实时运行，还有全球最重要企业的关键基础设施，比如摩根大通和贾米在公园大道270号的办公楼，都在用Armis系统。

7,000,000,000 devices in real time, and then the critical infrastructure of the most important companies in the world, like the great JPMorgan and Jamie's building at 270 Park Avenue that's running on Armis.

维萨在管理身份，而我们则为全球最重要的企业运行所有工作流。

Visa is managing the identities, and we're running all the workflows for the most important companies in the world.

吉姆，明白了。

Jim Okay.

我们才刚刚开始。

We're just getting started.

听我说，比尔。

Well, look, Bill.

我想让每个人都了解全面的情况。

You know, look, I want everyone to know all sides.

股价确实跌了。

I mean, the stock has gotten hit.

股价会上涨。

The stock goes up.

股价也会下跌。

The stock goes down.

但我知道，你谈论公司时始终秉持着真实的原则。

But I know you are true north when you talk about your company.

我很感谢你对那些评论的反驳，那些话可能正是拖累股价的原因。

I appreciate the pushback on those comments that I read because those may have been driving the stock down.

而且没错，我相信如果黄仁勋认为你是第一，那他绝对不会轻易给出这个评价。

And, yes, I do believe that if Jensen Huang believes that you are number one, he does not award that lightly.

比尔·麦克德莫特，非常感谢你做客节目，ServiceNow的董事长兼首席执行官。

Bill McDermott, thank you so much for coming on the show, chairman and CEO of ServiceNow.

见到你真好，比尔。

Good to see you, Bill.

谢谢，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

见到你真好。

Good to see you.

《疯狂金钱》马上回来。

Mad Money is back here.

接下来，你们有问题。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克雷默来解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

接下来是一轮快速问答，准备好被点燃吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

然后这轮闪电问答就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗，滑雪？

Are you ready, skiing?

这轮是白色主题。

That's on the white round.

纽约州的斯科特，这轮结束了。

It's over Scott in New Jersey.

斯科特。

Scott.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我想问问你，你觉得这只股票是买入、卖出，还是持有？

I wanted to know whether you think this stock is a buy, sell, or hold.

从去年到现在，股价跌了百分之八十以上。

It's down over, like, 80% or more from the last year.

符号是 F I G。

Symbol f I g.

Figma。

Figma.

不是。

No.

我的意思是，你看看。

I mean, look.

Figma 上市的时候。

It Figma came public.

它就迎来了那个高光时刻。

It just had this moment.

大家都特别喜欢它。

People loved it.

这市场竞争太激烈了。

It's a very competitive market.

我不想掺和进去。

I don't want to be there.

我们转到得克萨斯的玛丽那里吧。

Let's go to Mary in Texas.

玛丽。

Mary.

对。

Yes.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

你最近怎么样？

How are you?

我挺好的，玛丽。

I'm good, Mary.

你怎么样？

How are you?

这儿挺热的，不过我还行。

It's hot here, but I'm good.

好的。

Okay.

有道理。

Fair enough.

说得对。

Good point.

电力行业，最近怎么样？

Power generation, what's up?

我想了解一下你对太阳能技术的看法。

I wanted to find out what your thoughts are on solar technology.

现在太阳能股票表现不太好，而且如果没多少盈利支撑，利率又高，眼下想在太阳能领域赚钱真的很难。

The solar stocks are not doing that well right now, and unless you have some earnings to go on, right, with higher rates, it's really tough to make some money in the solar situation right now.

我们来听听布雷特·默里尔和布雷特怎么说。

Let's go to Brett Merrill and Brett.

吉姆博，你最近怎么样？

Jimbo, how are you?

我还不错，布拉德。

I'm doing okay, Brad.

你最近还好吗？

How you been?

挺好的。

Doing pretty good.

谢谢。

Thanks.

是的。

Yeah.

我有个问题。

I had a question

关于IONQ，也就是ION量子公司。

about IONQ, ION Quantum.

我知道人工智能和量子计算这两个领域正在融合。

I know the AI and the Quantum industries are merging together.

这个

The

股票的

stock has

贝塔值和市盈率都很高，贝塔值尤其高。

a high beta or PE ratio, high beta as well.

是IO和Q吗？

This IO and Q?

对。

Yeah.

再说IO和Q的问题，利率上升的时候，这类股票真的很难持有。

The problem with IO and Q again, I mean, we're dealing with a rate when rates go up, these stocks are very tough to own.

所以我打算避开它，毕竟我看得到利率的变化，走势根本不对头。

So I am gonna steer clear of it because I see what the rates are doing, and it just they're not going in the right direction.

我们接下来看来自马萨诸塞州的杰弗里。

Let's go to Jeffrey, Massachusetts.

杰弗里。

Jeffrey.

吉姆，你最近怎么样？

How are you, Jim?

周三快乐啊。

Happy hump day.

是啊，没错。

Oh, yeah.

当然了，老兄。

Absolutely, man.

你呢？

How about you?

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

还行吧，不过我这儿有个更好的消息给你。

Not too shabby, but got a good one for you here.

在发布了强劲的第二季度财报后，现在是不是加仓INDB的好时机？

After a strong q two earnings report, would right now be a solid time to form by more INDB?

是的。

Yeah.

不错。

Good.

对。

Yes.

区域性银行表现很好，我非常看好区域性银行。

Good regionals and I really support the regionals.

我觉得还有很多值得考虑的，你看，虽然有些合并，但区域性银行一直都是个绝佳的投资选择。

I also think there could be a lot of, you know, look, don't forget, you got some consolidation, but the regional banks have been a fantastic place to be.

你看看Key这家公司的情况就知道了。

I look at, you know, for just you take a look at key.

Key从来没降过息，可大家当时并不买账。

I mean Key we had never cuts and people didn't like it.

那它的股价怎么样？

What's the stock do?

涨了。

Go up.

这才是我喜欢的。

That's what I like.

我们连线一下纽约的艾萨克。

Let's go to Isaac in New York.

艾萨克。

Isaac.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey Jim.

艾萨克来自纽约市。

Isaac from New York City.

我家已经看了你二十多年了。

My family has been watching you for over twenty years.

谢谢你所做的一切。

Thank you for everything that you do.

天哪，真没想到。

Oh, wow.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

你瞧。

Look.

我喜欢这种老式的鲤鱼。

I like these old, you know, carp.

这些股票已经彻底垮了。

These stocks have given up the ghost.

价格一路跌到了底。

They've come down all the way.

我觉得咱们得好好看看它们。

I think we gotta take a look at them.

我觉得从这儿往下看，这情况其实挺不错的。

I think that that was a that's a very good situation all the way down here.

我的意思是，你打算入手吗？

I'll I mean, are you taking a shot at it?

不打算。

No.

我们知道电力现在很紧张。

We know that power's in short supply.

康士伯特手里有货。

Constellation's got it.

哦，各位，接下来是闪电问答环节。

Oh, and that ladies and gentlemen, have the lightning round.

闪电问答环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

本周过半，克拉默将分享他的顶级建议，帮你顺利渡过难关。

Coming up at the week's halfway point, Cramer's giving his top tips to help you get over the hump.

下一个。

Next.

明天，用《街头快讯》开启你的交易日。

Tomorrow, kick off the trading day with squawk on the street.

现场直播，纽约证券交易所九点后。

Live from post nine at the NYSE.

吉姆，我们正在赶来的路上。

Jim, we're making our way.

你想聊点什么？

What what do you wanna talk about?

好好享受蛋糕吧。

Enjoy the cake.

我哥哥从来不会边开车边嘴里塞着东西。

Never my brother would I never drove with a

嘴里塞满东西。

mouthful.

好吧。

Alright.

所有内容从东部时间早上九点开始。

It all starts at 9AM eastern.

吉姆·克拉默是美元的铁杆支持者。

Jim Cramer is a diehard of the dollar.

嘿，吉米。

Hey, Jimmy.

很喜欢这个节目。

Love the show.

我五岁的

My five year

孙子特别喜欢看你的节目。

old grandson loves to watch your show.

你让我们在能赚钱的时候赚到了钱，真的非常感谢。

I have to thank you for making us money when it's there to be made.

有你在，这个世界变得更美好了。

Our world is a better place with you in it.

我长期以来一直专注于投机交易。

I've been fixated on speculation for ages.

事实上，我是电视上唯一一个持续推荐买入投机性股票的人。

In fact, I'm pretty much the only person on TV who consistently recommends buying a speculative stock.

为什么呢？

Why?

因为一旦猜对了，就能赚得盆满钵满。

Because when you get it right, you can hit it out of the park.

这就是原因。

That's why.

如果猜错了，至少股票跌到零就不再跌了，这点还算幸运。

And if you get it wrong, well, you can be grateful that stocks stop at zero on the way down.

我们都知道，要是持有的股票归零，那真是挺难受的。

We know that if you own a stock and it gets wiped out, it hurts.

多年前，我的对冲基金里持有一只两美元的股票。

I owned a $2 stock in my hedge fund years ago.

还记得那个Ex Telx吗？

Remember ex Telx?

当时我想，

Thinking, hey.

最多也就亏两美元。

All I can lose is $2.

但我一路抄底加仓，等它真跌到零的时候，我已经为基金亏了两百万美元。

But I kept buying on the way down, and by the time it did go to zero, I had lost $2,000,000 for the fund.

这疼得真够呛。

It hurts something awful.

但正如我在《如何在任何市场中赚钱》里说的，你可以先用标普500指数基金作为投资组合的基石。

But as I say in how to make money in any market, you can own a portfolio that starts with a bedrock position in s and p 500 index fund numbers.

先打下这个基础，再慢慢添上五只股票，构建你的完整组合。

Always start with that, then build out a portfolio of five stocks, which you buy gradually over time.

这就是这本书的核心策略。

That's the program of the book.

这五只股票里，有一只可以是高风险的投机标的。

One of those stocks can be speculative.

我觉得，只要把十分之一的资产放在投机股上，这种风险程度完全没问题。

I think that if one tenth of your portfolio is in a speculative stock, there's nothing wrong with that level of risk.

这是一次孤注一掷的押注。

It's a long shot.

其实我们在生活中很多地方都接受这种小概率的赌注。

We accept long shots in many parts of our lives.

你是在Calci上操作吧。

You're on Calci.

你大概也会去赌一些冷门选项。

You probably go on for a long shot.

我知道你可能会在DraftKings上玩一些串关。

I know you may do some of the parlays on DraftKings.

谁要是真想买热门的贝尔蒙特或者肯塔基德比马。

Whoever really wants to buy the favorite Bellmont or Kentucky Derby.

这是不可能的赌博吗？

Impossible games of chance?

不是。

No.

只要选对一注，这就是风险回报比极佳的机会。

It's a good opportunities that have an excellent risk reward as long as you just pick one.

这有什么不对吗？

Is that wrong?

几乎不可能。

Hardly.

过去一百年里，一些最大的赢家恰恰是冷门选项。

Some of the biggest winners over the last hundred years have been long shots.

我们知道，政府几十年来一直在打击大型烟草公司。

We know that the government has waged war against big tobacco for decades.

一代又一代的卫生总监都在大力抨击吸烟。

Surgeon General after surgeon general has railed against smoking.

但菲利普·莫里斯公司的股票，它在2000年代中期重组并拆分为卡夫、奥驰亚和菲利普·莫里斯国际公司，仍然是过去一个世纪表现最好的股票，这让我想到昨晚的节目，以及我接到的来自纽约克里斯的电话，他问到了Keele基础设施公司，拼写是K-E-E-L。

But the stock of Philip Morris, which rebranded and divided into Kraft, Altria, and Philip Morris International in the mid two thousands has still been the greatest performer of the past century, which brings me to last night's show and a call I got from Chris in New York who asked about Keele Infrastructure, simple k e e l.

我知道。

I know.

一开始，我以为他说的是Keel's。

At first, I'm thinking, Keel's.

我的意思是，他们生产爽肤水，我以前每天晚上都用它卸妆，但他们不是上市公司。

I mean, they make the astringent who used to take off my makeup every night, but they aren't public.

克里斯继续说的时候，我发现这股票才四美元。

As Chris goes on, I see it's a $4 stock.

用个不太准确的说法，这简直是赌到极致了。

And it, for lack of a better term, is the ultimate long shot.

现在它是个拥有650兆瓦获批电力的数据中心，但还没拉到任何超大规模客户。

Today, a center plate that's got 650 megawatts of approved power, but hasn't yet secured a hyperscaler as a customer.

我想起几年前，在NVIDIA的GTC大会期间，我卖掉了Nebius这家公司。

And I'm thinking of the time a couple of years ago when I sold this company, Nebius, at NVIDIA's extravaganza GTC.

那时候我也不认识他们。

I didn't know them either.

当时NVIDIA的CEO黄仁勋带我穿过会场去见他们的时候，股价大概二十美元左右。

Stock was about $20 when NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, took me across the floor to meet these guys.

现在Nebius股价涨到了218美元，NVIDIA还持有他们9.3%的股份。

Nebius is now at $218 and Nvidia owns 9.3% of the company.

Keele会不会是下一个Nebius？

Could Keele be the next Nebius?

这太简单了。

That was easy.

房子

House

享乐之屋。

of pleasure.

我查过这事儿。

I looked into it.

我知道这些超大规模客户对电力的需求确实非常大，就像今晚谷歌提到的那样。

And I know the hyperscalers are indeed voracious buyers of power, as you heard from Google tonight.

Keele 正好拥有这个优势。

Keele has it.

我知道那家眼光超前的对冲基金，Wright 持有这家公司至少两千万股，截至第一季度仍是如此。

I know the situational awareness, the high flying hedge fund that's been early and Wright owns 20,000,000 shares of this thing, at least as of the first quarter.

当然，搞投机的时候，哪有什么完美的事，不然也就谈不上投机了。

Of course, nothing is perfect when you're speculating or wouldn't be speculating.

基尔的自由现金流为负，负债高达5.77亿美元，还持有大量加密资产。

Keele has negative free cash flow, $577,000,000 in debt, and a ton of crypto exposure.

没错。

Yep.

它是一家加密矿企，以前叫Bitfarms。

It's a crypto miner, the former Bitfarms.

至少没去种生菜。

At least it didn't grow lettuce.

四月份改了名字。

Changed the name in April.

这公司啥都占全了，是吧？

This one has it all, doesn't it?

另外，知名券商BTIG认为，股价有可能从4美元涨到8美元。

Plus, BTIG, a reputable broker, says they could nearly double from $4 to $8.

还能说什么呢？

What can I say?

我倒希望我当初没买Nebius的股票？

That I don't wish I caught Nebius?

我讨厌Core Weave，因为它原本是个比特币矿机公司，现在却成了大赢家？

That I dislike core weave a huge win because it started as a Bitcoin miner?

不可能。

No way.

我确实买了。

I did.

我只能说，纽约的克里斯，我觉得你可能抓到重点了，我就说到这儿。

All I can say is Chris in New York, I think you might be onto something and leave it at that.

我一向喜欢说，牛市的夏天来了。

I like to say as always, the bull market summer.

抱歉。

I apologize.

但为了你，Radio Man，这钱我愿意花。

But just for you, radio man money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

下次再见。

See you next time.

吉姆·克莱默在本播客中表达的所有观点均属他个人意见，不代表CNBC或其母公司、关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNPC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium.

您不应将克莱默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克莱默的观点基于他所认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我从不害怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开创先河的女性，正在重塑格局。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

其中一位

One of

我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力可以有千百种不同的表现形式。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

归根结底，还是要相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得有大格局。

Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博尔森主持《CNBC变革者与权力人物》。

Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

每周二更新，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.