Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/27/26

美联储下一步会怎么走？

What will be the Fed's next move?

政策声明和美联储主席给投资者的信号。

The policy statement and Fed chairman message to investors.

明天午间午餐直播，东部时间播出，CNBC Plus同步直播。

Power lunch tomorrow, two eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.

大约一个月前，霍尼韦尔终于拆分成了两家公司：一家是霍尼韦尔科技，主营建筑控制和工业自动化；另一家是霍尼韦尔航空航天，负责为商用航空市场生产各种零部件。

About one month ago, Honeywell finally broke itself up into Honeywell Technologies for building controls and industrial automation, and Honeywell Aerospace, where they make all sorts of components for the commercial aerospace market.

我早就推荐过霍尼韦尔，部分原因是我特别看重企业的备份能力。

I've been recommending Honeywell for ages, in part, well, because of I'm a big believer in backups.

我一直觉得，一家公司的价值远不止它当前的股价所体现的那些。

Always think that there's much more than the what the thing is trading at from the beginning.

我觉得市场还没充分认识到它旗下那些被埋没的业务的价值。

I I don't think the company's getting enough credit for the businesses buried inside of it.

这叫作‘分部估值’。

It's called the sum of the parts.

它们的价值更高，因为原本不该挤在同一个屋檐下，有些业务拆开才更值钱。

They're worth more because they didn't belong under the same roof, s o t p, some of the parts.

华尔街一直偏爱规模更小、更容易消化的公司，这几十年来一直如此。

Wall Street preferred smaller, more bite sized companies, and that's been true for decades.

现在依然是这样。

It's true now.

去年秋天，霍尼韦尔就开始拆分业务，把旗下的特种化学品业务分拆出来，成立了索利斯先进材料公司，时间是十月底。

Honeywell started breaking stuff up last fall when it spun off its special chemicals business as Solstice Advanced Materials at the end of October.

一开始，索利斯表现亮眼，股价从最初的不到50美元，短短几个月内就涨到了九十多美元。

Initially, it was a big win with Solstice, jumping from below $50 on the first day to the nineties a few just a few months later.

后来公司宣布要和元素解决方案公司合并，从那以后，股价又回落到了六十美元出头。

Then the company announced a big merger with Element Solutions, and since then, the stock's fallen back to 60 and change.

我依然觉得这是个买入机会，只是走势不太顺利。

I still think it's a buy, but it has not

确实不太顺。

been smooth

挺顺的。

sailing.

更让人沮丧的是，霍尼韦尔科技和霍尼韦尔航空航天自六月底分拆以来，表现一直平平。

What's more frustrating is that Honeywell Technologies and Honeywell Aerospace haven't exactly been great performers since they separated at the end of June.

霍尼韦尔航空航天一开始涨得挺猛，但热情很快就消退了。

Honeywell Aerospace shot higher first, but the excitement quickly faded.

它在6月29日首个交易日收盘价是220美元，大约一周后冲到最高点266美元左右。

The stock ended its first official day of trading, June 29, at $220, then it made its highest $266 and change about a week later.

但最近几周走势相当难看，股价一路回落到210美元。

But it's since come all the way back down to $210 for some really ugly trading over the past couple of weeks.

油价飙升时，持有航空股确实很难受，不过现在油价又回落了。

Tough to own aerospace stocks when the price of oil soars, although now it's coming right back down.

与此同时，霍尼韦尔科技的经历却完全相反。

Meanwhile, Honeywell Technologies had the exact opposite experience.

这股票一开始，我本来想说被嫌弃，但还是用‘不被看好’更合适。

The stock was initially I should say I was gonna say hated, but let let's go with unloved.

到了七月，股价也跟着变了方向。

Then July turned and the stock turned with it.

霍尼韦尔科技上周刚公布了强劲的季度业绩。

Honeywell Technologies reported a strong quarter last weekend.

股价直接飙升，截至今天已经涨到了245美元以上。

The stock just bolded, jumping to $245 and change as of today.

作为独立公司，霍尼韦尔科技的每股收益达到了1.95美元。

On a standalone basis, Honeywell Technologies earned a dollar 95 per share.

华尔街当时的预期股价只有83美元。

Wall Street was only looking for a buck 83.

这算是同比上涨了10%，销售额也超出了预期。

That's an increase of 10% year over Sales came in higher than expected too.

这得益于楼宇自动化和工业自动化这两大业务板块的强劲表现。

Thanks to strength in both building automation and industrial automation, both divisions.

利润率也因为成本削减和生产效率提升而大幅改善，大多数人没料到会这么快见效。

Margins also got a real boost from cost cuts and productivity improvement, and most people did not expect that to happen so quickly.

还有丰厚的订单储备。

Then there's the generous order book.

有机季度增长了16%。

Organic quarters were up 16%.

各个业务板块的短期订单都在以两位数的速度增长。

Short cycle orders growing at a double digit pace across every segment of business.

总积压订单增加了9%，达到约200亿美元。

Total backlog increased 9% to approximately $20,000,000,000.

又是一个意外。

Another surprise.

当霍尼韦尔科技开始独立交易时，投资者还以为它只是个增长缓慢、由一堆工业剩资产组成的公司。

When Honeywell Technology started trading independently, investors looked at this thing as a slow growth collection of leftover industrial assets.

有些人甚至说它是杂牌军。

Some even said cats and dogs.

但事实上，这家公司却实现了订单加速增长、利润率扩大、成本控制得力，以及不断扩大的积压订单。

Instead, the company delivered accelerating orders, expanding margins, strong cost discipline, and a growing backlog.

这使得管理层全面上调了全年预测，而且上调的幅度相当可观。

That allowed management to raise their full year forecast across the board, and these were substantial number bumps.

现在看来，霍尼韦尔科技真能实现其长期财务目标，而这些目标以前看起来有点过于乐观。

Now it looks like Honeywell Technologies can truly hit its long term financial targets, which previously seemed like they were on the optimistic side.

如果真能达成这些目标，它的估值理应像工业领域那些更优质的同行一样，获得更高的市盈率。

And if it can hit those targets, it deserves to trade at a higher price to raise multiple, like it's higher quality peers in the industrial space.

所以我们一直持有这只股票，用于查佩尔信托，不过现在股价涨了这么多，我很难再推荐了。

That's why we stuck with it for the Chappell Trust, although it's much harder for me to recommend at these levels now the stocks had a big run.

不过，这确实是我现在最欣赏的那种科技股的典型例子。

It's a great example of the kind of tech I like best right now, though.

好了。

Alright.

那更复杂的霍尼韦尔航空业务呢？

Now how about the more complicated Honeywell Aerospace?

奎克尔。

Quizkull.

尽管这个月股价大跌，但航空业务一直是老霍尼韦尔的王牌，这一点从未改变。

Even though the stock got slammed this month, the aerospace business was the crown jewel of the old Honeywell, and that hasn't changed.

公司为商用航空、公务机、国防、航天甚至直升机生产各种高科技零部件。

The company makes all sorts of high-tech components for commercial aviation business jets, defense, space, even helicopters.

这是一个规模庞大、难以复制的航空业务体系。

This is a big, hard to replicate aerospace franchise.

业务组合在三大板块之间分布得相当均衡。

The portfolio is divided fairly even among three businesses.

电子解决方案占销售额的39%左右。

Electronic solutions represents about 39% of sales.

发动机与动力系统占31%，控制系统占剩下的30%。

Engines and power systems represent 31% and control systems accounts for remaining 30%.

超过七成的商用航班都是靠霍尼韦尔的发动机启动系统开始运行的。

More than 75 of commercial flights begin with one of Honeywell's engine start systems.

一旦拥有如此庞大的装机量，就意味着你能持续多年获得服务收入。

Once you have such an enormous installed base, it means you get many years of service revenue.

波音和空客现在订单都排满了，未来十年的产能基本都已被锁定。

These guys have enormous backlogs at both Boeing and Airbus, which are pretty much fully booked for the next decade.

他们的国防和航天业务让他们能受益于更高的军费开支，尤其是导弹项目和装备更新换代的投入。

Their defense and space business gives them exposure to higher military budgets, especially missile programs and fleet modernization spending.

这正是我们迫切需要的。

That's something we desperately need.

你清楚，自从和伊朗发生冲突之后。

You know that after the conflict with Iran.

上个月的投资者日，管理层详细阐述了长期持有这只股票的理由。

At last month's investor day, management laid out the long term case for owning the stock.

到2030年，霍尼韦尔航空航天部门预计每年有机销售收入增长6%到8%，目标是实现超过65亿美元的息税前利润，且利润增速将快于收入增速。

Through 2030, Honeywell Aerospace expects to generate organic sales growth of six to 8% annually and targeting more than $6,500,000,000 of earnings before interest and taxes, with earnings growing faster than revenue.

没错。

That's right.

我觉得这些目标完全可实现，而且可能还有进一步提升的空间。

Those targets look achievable to me, and there may be actually room for upside, I think.

商用飞机的交付量到本十年末还会继续增长。

Commercial aircraft delivery should continue increasing through the end of the decade.

售后市场会受益于航空流量的增长，而且所有飞机的服役周期都在延长。

The aftermarket should benefit from growing air traffic and the fact that all planes are being kept in service longer.

国防支出依然强劲。

Defense spending remains strong.

霍尼韦尔的产品很多都是关键任务部件、独家供应，或者深度集成在飞机里，所以它有很强的定价能力。

Honeywell also has pricing power because so many of its products are mission critical, sole source, or deeply integrated into an aircraft.

这一点我早就清楚了。

I've known this for years.

大多数产品并不是给其他公司用的。

Most aren't for other guys.

最大的问题在于执行能力。

The biggest question is execution.

霍尼韦尔航空部门接到的订单已经超出了它的产能。

Honeywell Aerospace has more demand than it can handle.

这本该是掌声才对。

Well, that's supposed to be applause.

问题出在哪儿？

Where is a problem?

它现在能拿到足够的零部件，也按时交货。

It's getting enough parts and hitting its deadlines.

不过我觉得，现在它成了独立公司，应该会更容易些。

But I think that should be easier now that this is an independent company.

他们现在的目标是通过把供应链当作一个整体来管理，稳定生产节奏。

They're now aiming to stabilize production by managing the supply chain as one integrated system.

分析师们似乎觉得这根本做不到。

The analysts don't seem to think that's possible.

但真的可以。

It is.

现在，霍尼韦尔航空航天在8月5日公布了被拆分后的首个独立季度财报。

Now Honeywell Aerospace reports its first stand alone quarter after the close, August 5.

这份首份报告可能会有些干扰，毕竟没法和以前霍尼韦尔航空业务的数据直接对比。

The first report could contain some noise because it won't be apples to apples with the aerospace numbers from the old Honeywell.

但我认为，财报公布前股价的疲软，才是真正的机会。

But I think the stock's weakness heading to the earnings, that's the real opportunity.

这玩意儿现在的股价大约是明年预期收益的21倍。

The darn thing trades at roughly 21 times next year's earnings estimates.

相比之下，通用电气航空——我知道大家都喜欢它——股价却是收益的40倍。

By contrast, GE Aerospace, which I know what everybody loves, it trades at 40 times earnings.

RTX旗下的普惠和柯林斯航空，同样是不错的竞争对手，市盈率也只有28倍。

RTX printer Pratt and Whitney and Collins Aerospace, good competitor, sells for 28 times earnings.

霍尼韦尔航空是一家非常优秀的企业。

Honeywell Aerospace is a great company.

它不该比RTX还便宜。

Doesn't deserve to trade a discount to RTX.

所以我旗下的基金才趁这次回调加仓，说实话，这波下跌出乎我的意料，因为相比同行业其他公司，它的估值实在低得太离谱了。

That's why my travel trust has been using this pullback, which I have to tell you is very surprising to add their position because it's just too going cheap versus the rest of the stocks in its group.

最终，霍尼韦尔科技终于开始获得市场对其业务实力的认可，但霍尼韦尔航空却没这待遇。

In the end, Honeywell Technologies finally starting to get credit for the strength of its business, but Honeywell Aerospace, uh-uh.

最近油价飙升，导致它的股价一路下滑。

It's seen its stock fall by the wayside thanks to the recent jump in oil prices.

让我来给你总结一下这个复杂的情况。

So let me give you a bottom line here on this very complicated story.

我依然坚信霍尼韦尔分拆是个绝佳的决定。

See, I'm still a huge believer in the great Honeywell breakup.

我们知道霍尼韦尔科技表现稳健，而现在，霍尼韦尔航空正提供一个绝佳的买入机会。

We know Honeywell Technologies is doing just fine, and now you're getting an incredible buying opportunity in Honeywell Aerospace.

说实话，我倒希望下周财报出来时，它的股价被狠狠打压一下。

Honestly, I'm hoping the latter actually gets slammed on reports next week.

为什么？

Why?

这样我们就能趁低多买一些了。

So we can buy some more on weakness.

我知道我们CNBC投资俱乐部还没买够这只股票。

I know we at the CNBC Investing Club haven't been able to get enough stock in.

如果价格再跌，我们一定会和你一起进场。

If it goes lower, we will be certainly buying beside you.

我需要大家提问。

I need questions.

我现在连线肯塔基州的凯文。

I'm going to Kevin in Kentucky.

凯文。

Kevin.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我关注这只股票已经二十年了。

I've been watching for twenty years.

感谢你一直以来的分享。

Thanks for all that you do.

谢谢，老兄。

Thank you, man.

谢谢。

Thank you.

关于太空领域。

Around space.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我的问题是关于SpaceX的。

My question is around SpaceX.

我以1.5美元的价格买入，之后股价跌了。

I bought in at $1.50, and it has gone down.

我又加了一些仓，想听听你对目前股价的看法。

I bought some more, and I wanted to get your thoughts on where

现在的情况怎么样。

it's at.

这事儿挺复杂的，很高兴你问我。

This is complicated, and I'm glad you asked me about it.

我们花太多时间在自我纠结上了。

We're spending a lot of time thinking about ourselves.

你得明白，凡是 Elon Musk 做的事，总有一批人长期看好。

What you have to understand is there are long long term believers in anything Elon Musk does.

我要是跟你说现在卖了，等跌了再买回来，你肯定要问：为啥你这么干？Elon 不是总能猜对吗？

So if I tell you to sell it and then get back in lower, you're gonna say, well, why did you do that when Elon gets it right?

我的看法是，我们不是因为信任才买，而是因为 Elon Musk 本人。

So my take is we're not gonna buy buy it for the trust, but it's Elon Musk.

只要你信 Elon，你就信太空科技的未来。

And if you believe in Elon, you believe in space exploration tech.

这算是在赌吗？

Is that a punt?

不算。

No.

你就该这么看待这家公司。

That is exactly how you should look at that company.

我本人依然看好，霍尼韦尔的分拆也很不错，现在入手价格挺合适。

I'm still a great woman, great Honeywell breakup, and I think can get in at a great price here.

也许你可以等季度结束后再看。

Maybe you wait for after the quarter.

很快就会有消息了。

Coming up soon.

留意一下《疯狂金钱》的动向。

Watch where Mad Money is headed.

数据中心的增长故事，是不是真像我之前在节目里说的，开始出现裂痕了？

Is the data center growth story finally facing some cracks in his facade like I told you in the show?

我会分析当前形势，给你一些保持稳健的建议，这对你作为粉丝特别重要。

I'm gonna survey the face, give you my advice for staying afloat, and it's important as personal fans.

接下来我会一一回答大家的电话提问，快速问答、深夜剪刀手，还有闪电轮。

Then I'm taking all your calls, rapid fires, night scissors, and lightning round.

不过在那之前，我们从CRH开始，别走开。

But first Coming to you from CRH, don't go anywhere.

这会非常精彩。

It's gonna be a blast.

今天早些时候，我有机会去了一趟CRH。

Earlier today, I had a chance to visit CRH.

那是北美最大的骨料——也就是石料生产商，位于新泽西州北部的芒特霍普采石场。

That's the largest producer of aggregates, rocks, in North America at their Mount Hope Quarry in Northern New Jersey.

我们谈的是经济最基础的建筑材料。

We're talking the literal basic building blocks of the economy here.

石头和碎石。

Rocks, gravel.

这只股票长期表现非常出色，自三年前在纽约证券交易所上市以来，涨幅超过80%。

This stock's been a great long term performer, up over 80% since it listed on the New York Stock Exchange nearly three years ago.

但今年它受到重创，下跌了近18%，原因大家都知道：油价上涨和利率上升拖累了整个建材板块。

But it's been hard hit this year, down nearly 18%, thanks to higher oil prices and higher interest rates that have weighed on the entire building materials cohort, as you know.

公司这个月三十号要公布财报，但我们想在财报发布前，先从更长远的角度看看这家公司的业务。

The company reports on the thirtieth of this month, but we wanna take a longer term view on the company's business ahead of the report.

所以我才想约上吉姆·明特恩聊聊。

And that's why I wanted to check-in with Jim Mintern.

他是CRH的首席执行官。

He's the CEO of CRH.

一起来看看。

Take a look.

吉姆，这可不是我平时的背景。

Jim, this is not my usual backdrop.

我们到底在哪儿？

Where the heck are we?

欢迎来到我们在新泽西的芒特霍普工厂，吉姆。

Welcome, Jim, to our Mount Hope Facility here in New Jersey.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们在美国一共有大约800个设施。

This is we have about 800 aggregate facilities in The US.

这个设施在规模上排第三。

This actually ranks three in terms of size.

所以。

So

这里的‘合计’指的是石料。

And that's aggregate being rock.

对，就是石料。

That's rock.

我们每年生产大约四百万吨。

We produce about 4,000,000 tons a year.

这是离曼哈顿最近的采石场之一，也是我们网络中非常关键的一环。

This is one of the closest quarries to Manhattan, and it's a hugely part of our network.

同时，我知道这并不是什么新项目。

At at the same time, I understand it's not new.

确实不是新建的。

It's not new.

这地方的历史可以追溯到十八世纪初。

This history goes back to the early eighteenth century.

事实上，这里以前是个铁矿设施，还生产过华盛顿大陆军所需的部分弹药。

In fact, this was an iron ore facility and actually made some of the, you know, the blast for Washington's Continental Army.

这个铁矿一直运营到1960年。

They iron ore facility right up to 1960.

好的。

Okay.

后来在1960年变成了采石场，大概在2001年左右成为了CRH的一部分。

And then became a quarry in 1960 and became part of CRH in around 2001.

那如果我们现在在曼哈顿四处看看，你觉得有多少材料是出自这里的呢？

Now if we were to look around in in Manhattan, how much would we think that find out is from right here?

大部分都来自这里，吉姆。

A lot of it, Jim.

我觉得曼哈顿一半以上的建材，都来自这个采石场和它的配套网络。

I'd say well over half of Manhattan has been built by rock coming out of this quarry and some of the network.

你想想那些标志性的工程——玛丽亚科莫桥、拉瓜迪亚机场、哈德逊园区，还有下东区的加固工程，都是用这里的石头建的。

And you think some of the real iconic projects, the Mariacomo Bridge, LaGuardia, Hudson Yards, the the reinforcement of the Lower East Side.

这些材料全都是从这里和它周边的采石场开采出来的。

It's rock coming out of here and its network of quarries, which is supplying all that material.

让我觉得特别有意思的是，你们这行用的还是十八世纪的老方法。

Now one of the things that intrigues me about your business is here we are, something that was used in the eighteenth century.

那为什么到现在还没挖完呢？

Why hasn't it run out?

我的意思是，今天我们就要炸一炮，

I mean, we're gonna blow something up today.

可怎么还有这么多石头能炸呢？

How come there's still something to blow up?

我们每年在这里开采大约四千万吨，目前还有整整一百二十年的储量。

We do about 4,000,000 tons here a year, and we have still a hundred and twenty years reserves left.

这块场地有一千英亩。

So this is a 1,000 acre site.

这是个很大的设施。

It's a big facility.

我们待会儿就能去实地看看了，确实，储量非常可观。

We're gonna have a chance to see it shortly, but, yeah, it's a lot of reserves

在这儿。

here.

但你们一直在补充资源，或者规模越来越大。

But you are always replenishing or getting bigger.

你们现在手头有个在Zarcosa的大收购案。

You've got a huge acquisition on the table in the Zarcosa.

我觉得有些人可能不太理解，他们可能会问，听着。

I think some people don't really understand it, or they might say, listen.

你们为什么一直不停地买呢？

Why do you keep buying things?

但实际上，你们的历史上有很多收购案例并不成功。

But, actually, your history is filled with acquisitions that haven't worked.

对。

Yeah.

我们是美国最大的骨料生产商。

We we have we're the number one producer of aggregates in The US.

我们每年的产量大约是2.3亿吨。

We do about 230,000,000 tons a year.

我们在美国拥有大约240亿吨的岩石储量。

We own about about 24,000,000,000 tons of rock in The US.

这次收购阿科萨的交易，对我们来说简直是正中靶心，非常合适。

Now the Arcosa deal for us, it was straight down the middle of the fairway.

这笔交易带来了3500万吨的骨料资源，还让我们进入了达拉斯和凤凰城这两个高增长的新市场，而之前我们在这两个地方是没有业务的。

It is 35,000,000 tons of ags and bringing us into two new high growth markets in Dallas and Phoenix, which we weren't in.

可以说，这是两个什么样的市场呢？

Arguably, two of what?

全国前五大市场？

The top five markets in the country?

肯定是其中两个，就算算上前十名，也是增长和变现潜力最大的。

Certainly, two of the top, probably 10 anyhow, in terms of growing, in terms of monetization.

对我们来说，特别重要。

For us, particularly significant.

另外，Arcosa 还有一个次要业务，就是电力传输领域。

Now also, Arcosa had a secondary business, which is their in their energy transmission.

这和我们目前与大型公用事业公司的业务高度互补。

It's hugely complementary to what we do today with the large utility companies.

就是路边那些看起来像大铁塔的东西？

So those things we see on the side of the road that look like big men?

没错，就是它们。

They are.

正是这些，而且随着电力传输基础设施的全面建设，这正是当前增长最快的领域之一。

That's exactly them, and that's obviously an area with the whole development of the energy transmission infrastructure, which is a high growth area right now.

明白了。

Okay.

所以我们听到的是骨料。

So we hear aggregates.

脑子里就想到石头。

We think rocks.

就觉得没什么附加值。

Therefore, no value added.

好像这行谁都能做，但这种想法完全错了，对吧？

Therefore, can anybody in this business but that's precisely wrong, isn't it?

没错。

It is.

当然了。

Absolutely.

对我们来说，我们管这叫协同型业务组合。

And that may be you know, for us, we operate we call it connected portfolio.

所以我们做的是联动型投资组合。

So Connected portfolio.

没错。

Yeah.

我们根本不生产骨料。

We just don't produce aggregates.

我们在这里把那些骨料加工成沥青，就在我们身后。

So we here, we take those aggregates, we convert it into asphalt here behind us.

我们从山之希望工厂每年生产大约一百万吨沥青。

We do about a million tons a year from the Mount Hope facility.

用这些沥青，我们铺设道路。

We with that asphalt, we pave roads.

我们是美国最大的道路铺设公司。

We're the largest paver of roads in The US.

考虑到美国整个州际公路系统的规模，我们铺设的道路量相当于另外五家竞争对手的总和。

Now you take the scale and the size of The US inter interstate program at the whole highway network, we pave as much as the next five competitors together.

我们还会把这种石料用在其他方面。

We've also then take that stone.

把它转化成供水设施和能源设施，正是这种全方位的联动，让我们每年的业绩都能保持稳定。

We convert it into water infrastructure and energy infrastructure, and it's really that connected nature which drives the consistency of our performance year in, year out.

我们都清楚，现在正处在资本投资的黄金时代。

Now we all know that we're in the, in fact, the golden age of capital investment.

制造业正在回流。

We have reshoring.

大型数据中心正在大量建设。

We have giant data centers.

各种建筑也在不断拔地而起。

We have buildings going up.

比如在俄亥俄州，那里以前什么基础设施都没有，全是草原和农田。

For instance, in Ohio, the where there was no infrastructure at all, where it's just prairie fields.

只要我们打算建点什么，首先就得修路。

When we want to build something, we need roads.

我们需要为它们提供骨料。

We need aggregate for them.

考虑到你们在全国各地的广泛布局，你们很可能已经覆盖了这些企业的需求。

You're probably there given your dispersal in the country for a lot of those businesses.

是的，吉姆，我们确实如此。

We are, Jim.

我们在全国有大约两千个站点。

We have about 2,000 locations.

我觉得在美国，我们雇了五万名员工。

I think across The US, we have 50,000 employees.

因此，我们距离美国今天正在建设的每一个数据中心，几乎都在25英里范围内。

So we're actually within 25 miles of almost 90% of every data center that's being built in The US today.

你提到了俄亥俄州。

You mentioned Ohio.

近几年，我们在俄亥俄州参与了一个大型半导体工厂的项目，这恰恰体现了我们核心业务的本质。

We're we're on a we're on one of the very big semiconductor plants up in in Ohio in the last number of years, and that's, again, strikes to the core what we are doing.

我们提供的不只是骨料。

We're not just supplying the aggregates.

我们通常是最早进场的，先铺设地下能源和水管设施，然后用我们的水泥类产品来稳固地基。

We're often the very first person on-site putting in the subterranean energy and water infrastructure, then we come in with our cementitious product to stabilize the site.

等到这时候，我们才会进场供应骨料、石料或岩石。

And it's only then we bring in our aggregates, our stone, or our rock.

接着才是我们的混凝土。

Then we have our concrete.

所以这些项目对我们来说都是长达数年的工程。

So these are multiyear projects for us.

而且呢，

And Well,

让我跟你说说。

let me tell you.

你提到了一个词，我知道只要一提到它，你就没法回避——那就是水务基础设施。

You triggered a word that I know you can't leave by mention when you mention it, water infrastructure.

很多人以为数据中心会耗尽大量水资源。

Many people in the country think that a data center makes its ruins the water.

我在这方面做了很多研究，一再跟人解释，事实根本不是这样。

I've done a lot of work on this, and I have told people over and over again, that's not the case.

但我只是个电视上的普通人。

But I'm just some TV guy.

你能解释一下吗？

Will you explain?

因为你就在这个核心领域里。

Because you're at the heart of it.

这并不意味着水资源被蒸发了。

It doesn't mean water despolation.

不是的。

No.

对我们来说，说到基础设施，我们在水资源的收集和初期水质处理方面处于领先地位。

I mean, for us, in terms of infrastructure, we have a leading position of water infrastructure, primarily in the collection and the early stage quality treatment in water.

对吧？

Right?

从这个角度看，数据中心确实耗水很多，但对我们来说，这和我们的工作是高度互补的，吉姆。

Now data centers consume a lot of water, you know, from that perspective, but for us, it's hugely complementary to what we do, Jim, from that perspective.

但我想说一下。

But I think listen.

我觉得我们都同意，对吧？要建设21世纪的经济，不能靠20世纪的基础设施。

I think we can all agree, right, that, you know, the investment that's required in US infrastructure, you can't build a twenty first century economy with 20 with a 20 century, you know, infrastructure.

因此，交通、水利和能源基础设施都需要大量投资。

So there's very significant investment needed in transport, in water, and indeed energy infrastructure.

你刚才提到了公路。

Now, you talked about roads.

很多人对采石公司很担心。

A lot of people get worried about rock companies.

它们和房地产挂钩，所以表现起伏很大。

They seem to be so hit or miss because of their connected with housing.

我们知道房地产对利率非常敏感，但我们也知道，修路这件事对利率并不敏感。

Now we know that housing is very interest rate sensitive, but what we know also is that road building is not interest rate sensitive.

沥青这种重复性业务的特性，以及道路必须持续维护的需求，可能正是你们的一大优势。

And the the nature of the repetitive business that is asphalt and how roads must be maintained could be a secret weapon for you.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

这也正是我们大概四十年前进入这个领域的原因。

And that's exactly why we got into it maybe, you know, forty years ago.

对吧？

Right?

这种可重复性和可预测性，尤其是在新泽西州这边。

That that repeatability, the predictability, particularly up here in New Jersey.

你想想那里的冬天有多冷，你知道的，对吧，吉姆？

You think of the severity of the winters you know it well, Jim?

当然。

Sure.

冻融循环。

The freeze thaw.

冬天把道路搞得坑坑洼洼，所以修路补路几乎成了稳定、可预期的收入来源，像年金一样。

The roads get torn up by the winter, so that it's almost a repeatable recurring, almost annuity like income stream in terms of pay repaving the war the roads.

说到新建铁路，你们刚才提到了。

Now for us, you mentioned new build rails.

在CRH美国业务里，新建铁路是我们最小的一个板块。

That's the single smallest segment we have in CRH in The US.

所以我们更依赖公共和私人投资的基础设施项目。

So, you know, we're we are way more dependent on publicly funded infrastructure and indeed private funded infrastructure.

这次收购确实帮你们切入了增长最快的一些领域。

Now this acquisition again, that helped you in areas that that are really the the highest growth.

但这些收购是否直接转化成了公司利润的提升呢？

But does that necessarily translate into you've done a lot of acquisitions into profits for for your company?

确实如此。

It does.

是的

Yeah.

我的意思是，正如我所说，我们对科斯塔这笔交易非常兴奋。

I mean, Costa deal, as I said, is that we're super excited about it.

我们已经完成了大约1200笔收购。

You know, we've done about 1,200 acquisitions.

这么说吧，五十多年来，平均每两周就完成一笔。

That's that's one every two two weeks for over fifty years to put it in context.

对吧？

Right?

你明白吧？

So you know?

很多业务都源自像这样的地方。

And a lot of it stems from places like this.

就拿我们在新泽西的蒂尔康公司来说。

You take TillCon here in New Jersey.

你知道的，负责Tilcon的总裁有一个明确的任务，就是通过并购来推动业务增长。

You know, the president who runs Tilcon, he has a mandate to go out and grow the business through m and a.

我们努力在地方层面培养这种创业精神。

We try to foster that entrepreneurial spirit at a local level.

所以去年就是一个非常好的例子。

So last year is a very good example.

我们在2025年完成了38笔交易。

We did 38 deals in '25.

其中30家是从这类渠道找到的。

30 of them bubbled up from locations like this.

你知道的，如果是家族企业出售业务，我们不会更改他们的品牌名称。

You know, if you're a family business selling your business, we don't change the name.

我们在将家族成员融入高层管理团队方面有着出色的记录，这一点非常重要。

We've a tremendous record of integrating family members into our own senior leadership team, and that's very significant.

现在还有大量独家接触的机会吗？

Are there still a lot of exclusive looks.

在全国各地，当你看到这些大块空缺时，仍然有不少独立的经营者。

You're still parties that are independent around the country when you see these big holes.

说不定哪天这些就归你了。

It might be owned by you one day.

事实上，只有少数几家。

In fact, only yeah.

前十名岩石企业的业主加起来，只占总产量的三成左右。

The top 10 owners of rock only account for about 30% of total production.

所以美国这个行业的分散程度依然很高。

So it's still a very fragmented industry across The US.

你知道我建议我们该怎么做吗？

Well, you know what I think we ought to do?

我觉得我们应该炸掉一些东西，让你亲眼看看会发生什么。

I think that we should blow some stuff up so you can tell us what happens when we do.

走吧，吉姆，咱们去炸一炸。

Let's go have a blast, Jim.

好的。

Alright.

开始吧。

Forward to it.

谢谢，吉姆。

Thank you, Jim.

我是CRH公司的内部首席执行官。

Intern CRH CEO.

吉姆，接下来我们要做的是，给你倒计时十秒，然后——

What we're gonna do here, Jim, while we give you the ten second countdown Right.

你在这里把这把钥匙转一下。

You're gonna turn this key here.

你开玩笑吧。

You're kidding me.

明白。

Okay?

好了。

Alright.

好了。

Alright.

真恶心。

Yucky.

然后你按一下开机键。

And then you're gonna hit the on button.

好了。

Alright.

你再说一遍

And you're gonna say

别现在就按。

Don't don't press it now.

它会启动的。

It'll go.

要开始了。

Fire in the hole.

好。

Alright.

咱们开始吧。

Here we go.

好。

Alright.

这是我的第二个警报。

It's my second siren.

那是一分钟。

That's one minute.

它累了。

It's it's tired.

它转了。

It's turned.

小心爆炸。

Fire in the hole.

接下来登场的是华尔街反应最快的人，我们要借助大家的力量来考考他。

Coming up, he's the fastest mind on Wall Street, so we're putting him to the test with your help.

下面进入闪电问答环节。

Bring on the lightning round next.

听到这个声音时，我的步伐会变得非常激进。

My step is very aggressive in the fly when you hear this sound.

闪电问答环节结束了。

Then the lightning round is over.

准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

Ski从白石公园回到家了。

Ski got home from the White Rock.

Rachel在纽约那边。

It's going to Rachel in New York.

拉切尔。

Rachel.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi Jim.

我很喜欢你的节目。

Love your show.

谢谢

Thank

不客气。

you.

K。

K.

我的问题是关于Cerebras，股票代码是CBRS。

My question is about Cerebras, ticker symbol CBRS.

上周，CrowdStrike选择了Cerebras来驱动他们实时的Falcon AI检测系统。

So last week, CrowdStrike chose Cerebras to power their real time Falcon AI detection.

当乔治·库尔茨为你背书时，推理速度这么快，难道不是时候把Cerebras（股票代码CBRS）当作上市后的交易标的来关注了吗？

When George Kurtz vouches for you, inference speed, isn't it time to stop reading Cramer like a post IPO trade.

我

I

我觉得说它跌了这么多，而且市盈率也不算高，这当然是很合理的。

think that it's certainly reasonable to say you know what's down so much and the P.

市盈率确实不高。

Mobile is not that high.

我其实不太想买太多科技股。

I just I don't want to buy a lot of tech.

我现在只买了英特尔，我觉得它的前景比Cerebras更好。

The only one that I'm currently buying is Intel which I think has better prospects than Cramer.

不过我挺认同你的逻辑。

But I like your logic.

接下来我们听听比尔的看法，不只是比尔一个人。

Let's go to Bill and not just Bill.

吉米，我想特别提一下雷吉娜·吉兰，当你邀请我参加那场与英伟达CEO的月度会议时。

Jimmy I just want to do an honorable mention about Regina Gilligan when when you invited me down to the monthly meeting with the Gentleman, the CEO of NVIDIA.

对。

Yes.

我从来没想过这节目制作起来这么不容易。

I never imagined how hard the show was produced.

我对你和她都充满敬意。

Nothing but respect to you and her.

吉姆，我对一家地区性银行——第一远景银行很感兴趣。

Jim, I'm interested in a regional bank, First Horizon for sure.

首先，我得跟你说实话。

Well first I'm going to tell you the truth.

没有她，这节目根本办不下去。

This show doesn't work without her.

明白了。

Okay.

你看到的就是这样。

And that's what you saw.

没有她这节目根本转不动。

Doesn't work without her.

接下来回答你的问题。

Now to your question.

First Horizon 我觉得这只股票非常棒，价格也很便宜，你应该买入。

First Horizon I think it's a terrific stock very inexpensive and I think you should buy it.

我们连线纽约的玛丽安。

Let's go to Mary Ann in New York.

玛丽安。

Maryann.

你好，吉姆。

Hi Jim.

我很想

I'd love

听听你的想法。

to get your thoughts.

你好。

Hi.

你怎么样？

How are you.

挺好的。

Good.

你最近怎么样？

How are you doing.

挺好的。

Good.

不错。

Good.

我想听听你对耐克股票的看法。

I'd love to get your thoughts on Nike.

我觉得他表现还行。

I think that he's okay.

我的意思是，耐克的问题在于他们太想扭转局面了，但竞争对手实在太多了。

I mean the problem with Nike is it's trying so hard to get things turned around, but there's a lot of competition.

我觉得也就那样吧。

I think it's just okay.

我们在旅行测试里把它卖掉了，因为表现也就那样，我们不想持有这种平庸的资产。

I we sold it for the travel test because it's just okay and we don't want to own just okay.

我们连线科罗拉多的威尔。

Let's go to Will in Colorado.

威尔。

Will.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

现在市场波动这么大，我得来瓶你那儿最好的家酿梅斯卡尔。

I need a bottle of your better house mezcal with all this market volatility now.

我改天真得试试看，不过我想听听你对Kemper保险和KNPR的看法。

I gotta give that a try sometime, but I wanna know your thoughts about, Kemper insurance, KNPR.

首先，如果你真想的话，不妨试着推动一下，干脆把它砍掉。

Well, first, I think you should try to you should try to push for to kill if you want.

不过这事儿还得看卡罗琳的婚礼安排。

But it will and Caroline's wedding.

这周表现太出色了。

It was dynamite this week.

是的，我的步骤已经上来了。

Yes my steps up.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

我现在就得告诉你，Kemper根本不是个值得持有的股票。

I need to say to you right now that Kemper is not a stock one.

我不想去拥有那4%的收益率。

I don't want to own that 4% yield.

我需要的是增长。

I need growth.

我现在没有增长。

I don't have growth.

所以我不打算继续持有。

So I'm not going to stick with it.

但我还是会关注克莱默。

But I will stick with Cramer.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，克莱默将对数据中心股票发出严重警告。

Coming up, Cramer is issuing a dire warning about data center stocks.

你最好认真听一听。

You would be wise to listen.

下一个。

Next.

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

你的建议在我们家真的帮了大忙。

Your mission has been very successful in our family.

我每周都会反复听你的节目，学习投资知识。

I listen to your show multiple times a week for investing knowledge.

我就是想道个谢。

I just wanna say thanks.

我很喜欢你的节目。

I love your show.

谢谢你一直为普通投资者着想。

Thanks for always looking out for the world's back.

非常感谢你为我所做的一切，

A huge thank you for all you've done to make me

让我成为了一个更好的投资者。

a better investor.

我得给克莱默打个电话，没他我什么都干不了。

I gotta call Cramer because I can't make a move without this guy.

我想帮更多人成为更好的投资者。

I want to make people better investors.

要是他们能赚到钱，那就太棒了。

If they make money, fantastic.

咱们开工吧。

Let's go to work.

嘿。

Hey.

你们公司有多少业务是数据中心相关的？

How much of your business is a data center?

每次我见到CEO，基本上除了那些明显的服务型公司，我总会想知道他们有多少业务比例是流向那波最大的建筑热潮的，也就是这些价值数十亿美元、能产生巨大算力的庞然大物的建设黄金期。

Anytime I met a CEO, pretty much any CEO except for the obvious service companies, I always wanted to know the percentage of their business that flowed back to the greatest building boom, the golden age, the construction of these multibillion dollar behemoths that generate all that compute.

很长一段时间里，这都是一个毋庸置疑的利好因素。

For a long time, it was an unnegated positive.

所以我才问了这个问题。

That's why I asked the question.

不过现在，我得弄清楚一家公司有多少业务来自数据中心，不是因为增长，而是因为需要减少对数据中心的依赖。

These days, though, I have to know how much of a company's business is data center, not because of the growth, but because of the need to diversify away from the data center.

有太多公司都在参与建设这些项目，万一出了问题——比如某个客户是超大规模云服务商，决定不再继续投入或者负担不起——那这家公司的股价可能就崩了。

So many companies are involved in building these projects that if something goes awry, some customer may be a hyperscaler, decides it doesn't want to keep spending or can't afford to keep spending, then that company's stock could be in tatters.

今天我问了一家采石公司的CEO，他的业务中有多少来自数据中心。

Today, I asked the CEO of a rock company how much the data center business he has.

他说占比很小，有点帮助，但他的石料主要都用在修路上。

He said in a small amount, it helps, but his stones primarily end up in roads.

路可不能任由它破败下去。

You can't let the roads run down.

大家都懂路面坑洼的理论。

We all know pothole theory.

你得靠CRH这样的公司用石料重新铺路，不然坑洼会把你的车给颠坏。

You need CRH for the stones to resurface roads so the potholes don't break your car.

没错，石头可以作为数据中心的地基，但同样也能用在桥梁、办公楼群、半导体晶圆厂的底层。

Yes, it provides the rock can be at the base of a data center, but rock could be at the base of anything, bridges, office complexes, semiconductor foundries.

他们分散投资，是因为聪明。

They diversify because they're smart.

眼下，我们更需要的是聪明的做法。

At this moment, we want smart.

听我说，我管理着一个慈善信托基金。

Look, I run a charitable trust.

我们持有那些当前处境艰难的数据中心相关股票。

We own positions in data center plays where the pain is immense right now.

但我们已经在不少项目上获利了，有时候甚至觉得是在用别人的钱在玩。

But we've taken profits in so many of them that I sometimes feel like we're playing with the house's money.

我们持有的其他股票，比如苹果，其实受益于整个算力浪潮，因为他们根本没在AI上大笔投入。

Other stocks we own like Apple are beneficiaries of all this compute because they never spent big on AI.

据说他们每年付给谷歌一百亿美元，用来把谷歌设为iPhone的默认搜索引擎，但这还不到谷歌从苹果那里拿到的200亿美元收入的零头。

They're reportedly paying Google a billion dollars to use their AI model, just a fraction of the 20,000,000,000 or so that Google pays to them as to be the default search engine on their iPhones.

软件股又开始走强了，因为它们更偏向AI领域，而且股价已经跌了很多。

Software stocks are gaining steam again because they are more oriented to, well, AI, and their stocks have come down so much.

我今天早上就跟大家说了，我们还是要关注科技股，但不是投资者以前那种买法。

I told people this morning that once again that we want tech, but not the kind of big tech investors used to buy.

我们要的是材料科技，还有科学科技。

We want materials tech, and we want science tech.

今天早些时候我在节目里看到一位嘉宾。

I saw a guest on the show earlier today.

市场里一大块都是数据中心，但好像没什么别的可买的了。

It said a huge amount of the market is data center, but there's not much else to buy.

我说，别这么想。

I say, come on.

其实只要你稍微多花点心思去找，还是有的。

There's you just gotta hunt a little for it.

这不代表市场有多好，但股票市场上总有一些会涨得更高。

That doesn't mean it's a terrific market, but it's a market of stocks, and there's some that's gonna go higher.

看看今天的道琼斯指数。

Look at the Dow today.

我一直在说这个，怎么在任何市场里赚钱，因为我们现在面临的这种市场，正是我当初写文章时所预测的那种。

I talk about this endlessly and how to make money in any market because the kind of market, well, that we have is exactly what I was writing for.

如果你持有优质的科技股，而且没用杠杆，那问题不大，前提是你能承受一点波动。

Now if you own terrific tech stocks and you're not on margin, you could be fine, assuming you have can handle a little pain.

如果你用了杠杆，赶紧撤出来。

If you're on margin, get off it.

我知道你觉得自己能全身而退。

I know you feel that you're gonna get out alive.

如果你在投机，我知道很多人都是，那就别贪多，根据你的资金规模，只投一两只股票就够了。

If you're speculating, I know many of you are, then make it so that you're speculating only one or two stocks depending on the size of portfolio.

听好了。

Listen.

每当我看到科技股现在的走势，就不由得想起1999年我买那家互联网上市公司时的情景。

When I see what's happening in tech, I can't help think of what happened when I bought a .com public company public in 1999.

当时有太多的互联网公司，还有相关的企业，都特别自信，觉得在那种环境下自己能做得很好。

So many .com companies, adjacent companies were so confident that they'd do well in that environment.

他们买东西基本上用的是近乎白来的钱，或者他们自己觉得那就是白来的钱。

They were paying for things with basically free money or they thought it was.

他们还搞供应商融资，所以不管是谁，只要是客户，都能负担得起继续为产品买单。

They were giving vendor financing so everybody, any customer could afford to keep paying for the product.

这跟咱们现在听到的一些大公司的情况很像，当时看起来一切都棒极了。

Similar to what we're hearing right now with some of the big dogs, it all seemed terrific.

然后在2000年3月，市场突然来了个急转弯。

Then in March 2000, the market turned on a dime.

到了4月份，很明显那些看起来信用风险很高的公司都要撑不下去了，其中超过330家都倒闭了。

By April, it was obvious that the companies that looked like great credit risk were going to go under more than 330 of them did.

这种事会重演吗？

Could it happen again?

我也不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得有可能，但不会是那些高增长的医疗公司、材料公司或者零售企业。

I say maybe, but it won't be growth health companies or growth materials companies or growth retailers.

这类公司很容易找。

These are easy to find.

要是你实在找不到，那就加入CBC投资俱乐部吧。

If you can't find any, join the CBC Investing Club.

如果你正在借钱买跟数据中心相关的东西，好吧，接下来你该这么做。

And if you are borrowing money to buy something related to the data center, okay, here's what you're gonna do.

明天早上九点半，不管发生什么，赶紧卖掉。

Tomorrow morning, 09:30AM, sell it no matter what.

你绝对不会后悔的。

You will not regret it.

我想说的是，不管市场怎么变，总有个板块是在走牛市的。

I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere.

我保证，帮你找到那个板块，就在今晚的《Mad Money》节目里。

Promise to find it just for you right here on Mad Money.

我是吉姆·克莱默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克莱默在这个播客中表达的所有观点仅代表他个人的看法，并不反映CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能此前已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

你不应该把克莱默表达的任何观点当作进行特定投资或采取特定策略的具体建议，而仅应将其视为他个人的意见表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克勒姆的观点基于他认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证信息的完整性和准确性，因此不应将其作为事实依据。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看《Mad Money》节目的完整免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer.

是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

我根本不怕失败。

I have no fear of failure.

开拓女性，改变游戏规则。

Trailblazing women changing the game.

我

One of my

最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你的老板的老板需要什么。

favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.

领导力的表现形式多种多样。

Leadership can look in many, many different forms.

说到底，关键就是相信自己。

It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

人生苦短，

Life is short,

所以你得敢想大事，才能做成大事。

and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.

朱莉娅·博里斯汀主持CNBC的《变革者与关键人物》节目。

Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.

New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.