Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/8/26

这家公司成立于1778年。

It's founded in 1778.

最初是做锉刀的，后来在第一和第二次工业革命期间扩展到其他铁钢产品。

Originally, it was a file making business before expanding to other iron and steel products during the first and second industrial revolutions.

之后开始为飞机发动机和燃气轮机生产金属零部件，并通过收购逐步壮大这些业务。

Eventually, started making metal parts for aircraft engines and gas turbines and slowly bolstered those businesses through acquisitions.

在2001年，Doncasters被苏格兰皇家银行私有化，之后在2006年卖给了迪拜国际资本。

Now doncasters went through a bunch of different owners before being taken private by the Royal Bank of Scotland in 2001, then sold to Dubai International Capital in 2006.

到了2020年，原来的Doncasters经历了英国版的破产重整程序。

Now in 2020, the old Doncasters went through the British equivalent of a bankruptcy proceeding.

当时债券持有人接管了公司，这才有了现在的TPC Holdings。

It's where the bondholders basically took over the business, which is how it became TPC Holdings.

如今，这家公司为航空航天和电力行业的巨头生产高度精密、至关重要的铸件部件。

Today, this is a company that makes highly engineered mission critical precision cast components for major players in aerospace and power generation.

这个行业的进入门槛非常高。

There are very high barriers to entry in this business.

其实两者都是。

So, both of them actually.

所以DPC几乎没什么竞争对手。

So DPC doesn't face much of in the way of competition.

没几家公司能做得了这种产品，通常在我们市场里，这类东西都卖得特别贵。

Not many companies can even try to make this stuff that usually they trade at huge premiums in our market.

别搞错了，航空航天发动机和燃气轮机现在可是热门市场。

And make no mistake, aerospace engines and gas turbines are hot end markets right now.

我之前看IPO招股书的时候就有点不认同，他们老用‘超级周期’这个词来形容这两个主要市场。

I actually criticized a little while reading the IPO prospectus because they kept using the term super cycle to describe both of their main end markets.

我觉得这词儿真讨厌，通常都是周期快结束了，大家才开始挂嘴边。

I see, I hate that term because you usually don't start hearing it until a cycle's coming to an end.

还记得煤炭的超级周期吗？

Remember the coal super cycle?

那 fracking砂的超级周期呢？

How about the fracking sand super cycle?

这两者都很快就会转入下行周期。

Those both quickly turn into down cycles.

但公平地说，DPC确实在煤炭、航空和发电这些超级周期中扮演了重要角色。

But in fairness, TPC's got role in the coal aerospace and power generation super cycles here.

我的意思是，这个词用得其实挺准确的。

I mean, it's an accurate descriptor.

就是听着让人有点不爽。

It just gets my hackles up.

那数据呢？

How about the numbers?

好吧。

Okay.

一方面，DPC自六年前重组以来，收入已经增长了一倍多。

On the one hand, DPC has more than doubled its revenue since its restructuring six years ago.

这得益于销量增长和价格上涨。

Thanks to strong volume growth and higher prices.

去年，他们的营收增长了百分之十二。

Last year, they put up 12% revenue growth.

到了2026年第一季度，增速进一步提升到了百分之二十六。

And in the first quarter twenty twenty six, that accelerated to 26%.

看来咱们这儿真有个营收加速增长的故事。

Looks like we can have an accelerating revenue growth story here.

就像我之前在《如何在任何市场中赚钱》里说的，这种情形正是我最看好的类型。

And as I explained in how to make money in any market, this is one of my favorite kinds of situations.

这种公司总是值得入手。

They're always ripe for buy.

一个传统工业公司能有这样的表现，真不容易。

That's impressive for an old fashioned industrial.

但另一方面，公司还没能实现盈利。

On the other end though, the company's still not back to turning a profit.

按照我们最严格的盈利标准来看，DPC去年亏损了1.72亿美元，今年第一季度又亏了4700万美元。

Based on the strictest gap standards, we like on made money, DPC lost a $172,000,000 last year and $47,000,000 in the first quarter of this quarter the first quarter of this year.

我不明白他们是怎么做到的。

I don't know how they did that.

不过，如果你看他们的损益表，亏损的主要原因是利息支出过高，这大多来自一种叫‘以股抵息’的贷款，贷款方是公司股东，也就是2020年重组时的原债权人。

However, if you look at their income statement, the main reason for the losses is elevated interest expense, which most of us from this thing called payment in kind loan due to the company's shareholders who were the old creditors for the restructuring in 2020.

还记得我之前提过的那两次重组吗？

Remember the back two restructuring I mentioned?

幸运的是，股东们早在三月就同意将这笔贷款削减85%，随后又用IPO所得资金还清了剩余部分。

Fortunately, the shareholders agreed to crunch down that loan by 85% back in March, then they used the IPO proceeds to pay off the balances.

这意味着DPC的利息支出将大幅下降，公司实际盈利远比表面看起来好得多，而这正是我们想要的。

That means DPC's interest expense will come down substantially, making the company a heck of a lot more profitable than it looks, which is exactly what we want.

再见。

Bye bye bye.

在他们的IPO招股说明书中，他们提供了调整后的净利润数据，把刚才我说的以股抵息成本，以及其他一些一次性支出都加了回去。

In their IPO prospectus, they offered adjusted net income numbers, which add back the payment in kind loan costs I just mentioned, as well as some other non repeating expenses.

用这些调整后的数字来看，DPC去年实际实现了4500万美元的净利润，今年第一季度也有1200万美元。

Using these adjusted numbers, DPC actually made 45,000,000 in net profit last year and 12,000,000 in the first quarter.

好的。

Okay.

那很好，至少没了那种利息转本金的贷款拖后腿，他们总算不亏钱了。

That that great, but at least they're they're in the black without the payment in kind loan devouring their profits.

我觉得很多人对刚才我说的还不是很清楚。

I think a lot of people are confused by what I just went over.

因为这是传统制造业，我们还会看另一个关键指标，就是EBITDA。

Since this is a smokestack industrial, we also like to look at the interest, you know, real a thing called EBITDA.

EBITDA是利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的利润，它能更真实地反映企业底层的经营状况。

That's earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, because that tells you more about the state of the business under the surface.

这些EBITDA的数据，相当扎实。

And those EBITDA numbers, they're pretty darn solid.

好的。

Okay.

我们来聊聊资产负债表，因为2020年那会儿这可是个大问题。

Let's talk about the balance sheet because that was a problem in 2020.

考虑到重组，这是一个关键因素。

It's a key factor given the restructuring.

现在他们已经处理了我之前提到的以物抵债贷款的后遗症。

Now they've handled the payment in kind loan hangover that I've mentioned.

剩下的债务负担已经 manageable 了。

What's left is a pretty manageable debt load.

调整后的净债务大约是5.42亿美元。

We're talking about $542,000,000 in adjusted net debt.

拿这个数字和DPC过去十二个月的EBITDA相比，公司的杠杆率是3.6。

Compare that to DPC's EBITDA over the past twelve months, and the company's got a leverage ratio of 3.6.

虽然这个数字偏高，但就这个节目讨论的内容来看，我们认为这个水平是可以接受的。

Now that's with the higher end, but when it comes to what they're doing on this show, we think it's an acceptable level.

这就引出了最后一个问题是：

Which brings me to the final question.

DPC在经历了相当强劲的开局后，现在还值得投资吗？

Is DPC worth owning here after its fairly strong start?

我们来看看这只股票和它最接近的独立可比公司相比表现如何。

Let's look at how the stock trades versus its closest independent comparison.

就是那个Met Aerospace，或者像我们在《疯狂金钱》里常说的Halmet Your Mother。

How met aerospace or Halmet Your Mother as we know it here on Mad Money.

我们非常看好这只股票。

We do like that stock very much.

用企业价值倍数来算，就是市值加上净债务，再除以我刚才提到的EBITDA。

Using enterprise multiple, that's the sum of the market cap and the net debt load divided by the EBITDA that I just gave you.

你可以看到，TPC的企业价值倍数是55。

You can see that TPC is an enterprise multiple of 55.

这比备受青睐的Halmet的46要贵不少。

Oh, that's a good bit more expensive than the much loved Hal Met at 46.

如果我们稍微激进一点，假设DPC今年的EBITDA能达到1.9亿美元，这个预估是合理的。

If we get a bit aggressive and create an EBITDA estimate of a $190,000,000 for DPC this year, that's fair enough.

前提是他们能保持第一季度那样的增长速度。

That's assuming they can keep growing at the same pace as the first quarter.

那么到2026年，这只股票的企业价值倍数就只有40出头了。

Then the stock would have an enterprise multiple of just over 40 on 20 26 numbers.

还是比哈尔梅特的36略高一点。

Still a little higher than helmet at 36.

所以总的来说，我觉得TPC控股或者唐卡斯特这家公司，故事非常不错。

So ultimately, I would say about TPC holdings or Doncasters is it's a great story.

主要是因为它的终端市场特别有吸引力，比如航空发动机和燃气轮机。

Mostly because of the extremely attractive end markets, aerospace engines, and gas turbines.

但我还不确定现在是不是入手这只股票的好时机。

But I'm not sure if this is the moment to embrace the stock.

你看，目前TPC的估值比老牌运营商哈尔梅特还高，可它规模小得多，盈利能力也差远了。

See, right now, TPC is trading at a premium to a tried and true operator like Halmed, even though it's a much smaller company that's far less profitable.

说白了就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

我真的很看好TPC，它所在的行业也特别棒。

I I really do like TBCI, and it's also in great businesses.

但我希望股价能再跌一点再入手。

But I'd love to see the stock come in just a bit before buying it.

比如降到42美元，低两美元怎么样？

How about at around $42, $2 lower?

那样我会更安心。

I would feel much better.

那时股价就和哈尔梅特持平了。

The stock would have the same valuation as Halmet.

你可以先建一小部分仓位。

You could put a small position on here.

不过理想情况下，我还是建议等股价跌到三十美元区间，那时候GPC相比它最接近的上市公司就明显低估了，那就是全力买入的机会。

Although, ideally, I prefer you to wait for an entry point in the thirties where the d p where where GPC would be a discount to his closest public traded companies and would be Buy buy buy.

就在那个位置。

Right there.

我们连线一下来自我家乡新泽西州的格雷格。

Let's go to Greg in my home state, New Jersey.

格雷格。

Greg.

向你致敬，吉米，新泽西州的骄傲！

Big Garden State booyah to you, Jimmy Man,

我也把新泽西的骄傲回敬给你。

right back at you with that garden state booyah.

最近怎么样？

What's going on?

损失了很多树吗？

Lose a lot of trees?

嘿，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

我欠了一些树。

I owe some trees.

吉姆，

Jim,

我打电话是想聊聊全球电力、风电和电气化领域的领军企业。

I am calling about one of the world leaders in power, wind, and electrification.

过去一年，它的股价翻了一倍。

Stock has doubled in the past year.

你觉得现在入手GE Vernova怎么样？

Do you think GE Vernova is a good to buy here?

我觉得这简直是绝佳的买入机会。

I think it's a great buy.

昨天它被狠狠打压了一把。

It was just crushed yesterday.

今天早些时候它涨得不错，可后来突然就崩了。

It was up nicely at one point today, and it gave up the ghost.

我真搞不懂这事儿。

I don't get that.

它一下子跌了三十点。

It was it was it gave up 30 points.

我觉得你该入手这只股票。

I say you want to own this.

现在就是入手的最佳时机。

You want to buy it right here.

在风机产能严重短缺的情况下，它依然是最顶尖的选择。

It remains the best when it comes to more turbines and turbines are in very short supply.

当然，我不是在说你脑子里那些东西。

And no, I'm not talking about the things in your head.

他们管那叫风机。

They call them turbines.

我也管那叫风机。

I call them turbines.

不过嘛，这么说确实太直白了，估计没人会这么想。

But no, that would make too much sense, I guess.

对。

Right.

我觉得KPC的故事挺不错的。

I think KPC is a great story.

我只是觉得，咱们可能得等它稍微回落一点，再全面入手。

I just think that maybe we got to wait for it to come down a little bit before we embrace it fully.

好的。

Alright.

但对我来说，还是先看钱袋子。

But for me, money ahead.

利维斯在财报发布后动起来了。

Levi's is on the move after earnings.

我刚跟他们的CEO聊完，就在财报刚出之后。

I'm sitting down with the CEO fresh off the company's report.

别管火箭发射了。

Then forget rocket launches.

我更看好SpaceX的投资逻辑。

I'm digging the investment case for SpaceX.

其实还真有这么一个机会，而且不只是关于火星和太空采矿。

You know, there actually is one, and and it's not just about Mars and astro mining.

当然，今晚的闪电轮播环节，你们的来电会接二连三地进来。

Of course, all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the Lighting Round.

继续关注克莱默的节目。

So stay with Cramer.

如果你仔细看交易数据，李维斯公司的营收超出了预期，利润也比预期高出4%，按固定汇率计算增长了24%。

If you look close to trading, Levi Strauss and Company reported higher than expected revenue and a 4% earnings beat off a 24% basis.

这位牛仔裤巨头在全球的表现都非常出色。

The denim kingpin put up excellent numbers around the world.

欧洲市场可能对它的单品特别着迷。

Sole obsession maybe of Europe.

稍后我会详细说说这个情况。

Find out more about that in a sec.

亚洲市场实现了12%的有机增长。

Asia had 12% organic growth.

哇哦。

Wow.

水星股价涨了7%，表现更出色。

Mercury's up 7%, even better.

管理层大幅上调了全年业绩预期。

Management raised their full year forecast pretty substantially.

同时，股息还提高了14%。

Also, pushing the dividend by 14%.

当然，这之前已经有一波强劲的涨势了。

Of course, this comes on the heels of a pretty strong run.

在本季度开始前，李维斯股价年内已上涨近18%。

Going into the quarter, Levi's was up nearly 18% year to date.

在整体表现疲软的服装股中，它脱颖而出。

It's been a standout among the otherwise challenged apparel stocks.

尽管大家对消费者信心忧心忡忡，他们的业绩却非常亮眼。

Despite all the hand wringing about the consumer, they put up excellent numbers.

我们得弄清楚原因。

We gotta find out why.

让我们请利维·斯特劳斯公司总裁兼首席执行官米歇尔·戈什来详细分析一下。

Let's take a closer look with Michelle Gosch, the president CEO of Levi Strauss and Company.

米歇尔，欢迎再次做客《疯狂金钱》。

To learn more, miss Gosch, welcome back to Mad Money.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

米歇尔，我得说，现在这行真的挺难的。

Well, Michelle, I've gotta tell you, it's such a challenge group these days.

我一向提心吊胆，但你今年一直很稳。

I'm always so afraid, but you've been consistent this year.

股价涨了百分之十七点五。

Stocks up 17 and a half percent.

你是怎么做到的？在这样一个经常让人失望的行业里，还能持续交出这么好的业绩？

How are you able just to continue to put up numbers in a group frankly that has been prone to disappointment?

是的。

Yeah.

首先我想说，我们很高兴又交出了一份强劲的季度报告，这已经是连续第七个季度实现营收和利润的双增长了。

So first I'd say, you know, we're pleased to put up another strong quarter about seven quarters of consistent top line, bottom line growth.

我们在各个地区、各个品类和所有销售渠道都实现了全面增长。

We saw broad based growth across the board geographies, categories, across channels.

我们的利润率提升了，上调了业绩预期，也为股东创造了更多价值。

We expanded our margins, we raised our guidance, we're delivering more to shareholders.

所以我们现在感觉非常乐观。

So we're feeling really good.

不过正如你所说，外部环境变化很快，我们始终紧贴消费者需求，但我想强调的是，我们的消费者依然非常坚定。

That said, as you said, there's a dynamic environment out there and we're staying really close to the consumer, but I would tell you our consumer continues to be resilient.

我们从不敢对此掉以轻心。

We don't take that for granted.

我们是零售商，每天都要重新赢得顾客的信任。

We're retailers, we get to earn it every single day.

在这样的时候，消费者往往会转向他们信赖的品牌。

I think at times like these consumers do go to brands that they trust.

我们是一个历史悠久、值得信赖、品质过硬的品牌，同时消费者也一直期待新鲜感和创新。

We are a durable heritage, trusted brand, high quality, and consumers still want newness and innovation.

而我们正不断推出这些新东西。

And we're bringing lots of that.

所以，是的，我们预计这种势头会持续下去，这也是我们上调全年业绩指引的原因。

So, yeah, we expect this momentum to continue hence why we did increase our guide for the rest of the

年。

year.

不过，我觉得还有一点很重要，你们的品牌故事虽然一直很成功，但过去主要不是针对女性。

Now, I think it's also important to point out that yes, your story brand, but not with women until now.

你们反复强调的女装和上衣品类，现在看来真的实现了突破。

Your women's and tops as you have emphasized repeatedly on the show is going to be breakout and it looks like that's happened.

是的。

Yeah.

不是。

No.

本季度女装销售额再次实现两位数增长。

Women's again up double digits for the quarter.

目前女装业务占我们总业务的四成左右，但我们不认为这会停下脚步。

It represents now about 40% of our business, but we don't see that stopping.

女装业务应该至少占到我们业务的五成。

It should be at least 50% of our business.

我们要全方位地满足女性顾客的需求，这也是我们牛仔生活方式战略的一部分。

And it is really thinking about how we can fully serve that female customer head to toe, which is part of our denim lifestyle strategy.

首先，得在裤装上取胜，无论是男装还是女装。

So first you gotta win in bottoms, both men and women.

我们正在美国市场扩大份额。

We're growing market share in The U.

S.

S.

在男装和女装领域都稳居第一，而且正在拉开差距。

In men's, in women's solidly number one, in fact separating ourselves.

说到上衣，我特别兴奋，因为我们的增长空间还很大。

And as it relates to tops, this is where I get really excited because we have so much runway ahead.

我们是个新进入者。

We're a new player.

我们已经建立了很强的能力，而且效果正在显现。

We've built a lot of capability and it's working.

我们不再只是卖T恤和工装夹克了。

And we're not just selling t shirts and truckers anymore.

我们现在卖的是女衬衫、衬衫、毛衣、背心和外套，顾客反响很好。

We're selling blouses and button downs and sweaters and tank tops and outerwear and our customer is responding.

这让我们很有信心，对于一个170年历史的品牌来说，前方依然有巨大的机会。

So it's, that gives us great confidence that there's still for a 170 year old brand, so much opportunity ahead.

不，确实有。

No, there really is.

而且我看你们确实做到了。

And I see you're delivering on it.

你们还兑现了之前对Beyond Yoga的承诺。

And you're also delivering on a promise that you made to us on Beyond Yoga.

这个数字看起来非常不错。

That number looks really good.

是的，Beyond Yoga团队也执行得很到位。

Yeah, similarly, Beyond Yoga team is executing.

他们也把产品线扩展成了更全面的生活方式系列。

They also have expanded their offerings into much more a lifestyle offering.

当然还是在卖那些超柔软的紧身裤和背心，但真正推动增长的是裤子、亚麻制品、毛衣，本季度这类产品再次实现了两位数增长。

So yes, still selling those super soft leggings and tanks, but what's really driving the growth are things like pants and linen and sweaters and up double digits again this quarter.

我们正在开设实体店，这实际上也在推动我们的电商业务。

We're building stores and that's actually fueling our e commerce business.

现在还处于早期阶段，但没理由说它不能做成一个五亿美元的生意。

So early stages, but you know, there's no reason why that can't be a half billion dollar business.

这一点很重要，因为其他品牌都在纷纷下滑。

Well, that's important to note because the others are all falling by the wayside.

在这么艰难的环境下，你们显然做对了。

So you're obviously doing it right in a tough environment.

自从总统实施关税以来，我们一直得讨论这个问题。

Now, we've always had to talk since the president tariffs.

这次看起来他们好像根本没造成什么影响。

It looks like they were kind of a nonentity this time.

这么说对吗？

Is that right to say?

关税的情况现在还是有点不确定。

You know, the the tariff situation is still a bit fluid.

所以我们还没把大部分退款入账。

So we have not booked, the majority of the refunds.

对我们来说，大概是八千万美元。

It's about $80,000,000 for us.

虽然我们本来指望能拿到关税退税，但还是有额外收入进来，所以我们上调了预期。

There's a little bit that came in, that we raised our guidance even despite counting on tariff refunds.

接下来会怎样，咱们就拭目以待吧。

So we'll see how it all plays out.

明白了。

Alright.

现在DTC占了51%，这正是我一直期待的，同比增长6%。

Now 51% DTC, which is what I've been really hoping for a comp of 6%.

电商渠道实现了17%的有机增长。

E commerce grew 17% organically.

对于一个老牌品牌来说，能有这样的双位数电商增长，确实很了不起。

Again, for an older brand, it is rather amazing to see that kind of doubledigitecom growth.

说到底，这业务还有巨大的潜力没开发出来。我们现在正进入公司发展的新阶段——过去我们主要靠批发渠道卖牛仔裤。

Well, again, goes back to such untapped potential in this business where we're starting really this, I'll call it this next chapter of the company where historically we've been a denim bottoms business sold through wholesaler.

我们现在正大力转型为一个生活方式服饰品牌。

This significant pivot to be a lifestyle apparel company.

当然，我们依然会以牛仔裤为核心，保持领先地位，但要卖得更多。

Rooted in denim, of course, we will always have that leadership, but to sell a lot more.

直接面向消费者的方式，能最好地展现品牌给顾客。

And DTC is a great way to give the consumer the biggest expression.

再说回电商，没错，增长了17%。

Back to e commerce, yes, up 17%.

但目前电商只占我们整体业务的12%左右。

It's still only about 12% of our business.

跟同行比起来，这个比例应该高得多。

It should be relative to our peers a lot higher.

这说明我们还有很大的增长空间。

So that just says there's a lot of upside there.

从整体来看，吉姆，我们已经连续17个季度实现了正增长。

And then holistically in DTC, Jim, we posted now 17 quarters of positive comp growth.

我们当然不会觉得这一切是理所当然的，但确实在稳步推进。

Again, we don't take that for granted, but we are executing.

你今天走进一家店，过去满眼都是堆得高高的牛仔裤。

You go into a store today, there used to be lots of shelves and stacks of denim.

牛仔裤我们当然还在卖，但现在你能看到从头到脚的完整搭配，女性服饰的选择丰富多了。

We still have the denim of course, but now you see head to toe wardrobing, you see a much fuller expression for women.

这些都说明，像我们这样有如此悠久历史的企业，仍有巨大的增长空间。

So all of these just say, you know, for a business with as much history as we have, there's a ton of runway.

正如我们常说的，如今我们比以往任何时候都有更多取胜的机会。

And as we like to say, today we have a lot more ways to win than we've ever had before.

明白了。

Okay.

这倒说得通。

Now fair enough.

我想让大家明白，欧洲市场下降1%的情况，可能并不完全具有可比性，对吧？

I want people to understand Europe being down 1%, that may not be an apples to apples situation, correct?

是的，很高兴你提到这一点。

Yeah, no, I'm glad you brought that up.

今年我们其实是在回顾去年，当时我们经历了一次重大的渠道调整。

So this year we're actually anniversarying last year, we had a big distribution shift.

所以第一季度和第二季度的业绩并不均衡。

So the two quarters Q1 and Q2 were uneven.

上半年我们的增长达到了中个位数，全年我们也预计会保持在这个水平。

So for the first half, we are up mid single digits and that's what we expect through the rest of the year.

这完全符合我们的预期。

So it's absolutely meeting our expectation.

同样，欧洲团队在生活方式、女装、直营以及批发业务上都表现得相当不错。

And similarly, that team in Europe is executing lifestyle, women's, direct to consumer, and our wholesale business there is doing quite well as well.

你之前提到，有一段时间汽油价格涨得很高。

Now you had a There's still a lot of Oh, now you had a period where I would say the price of gasoline went very high.

那这个季度的节奏是怎样的？

How was the cadence of the quarter?

是持续稳定，还是受到汽油价格的影响？

Was it just consistent or or was it impacted at all by gasoline?

我还是要回到我们之前聊过的消费者策略，我们主打生活方式，直接面向消费者，而李维斯这个品牌，是大家信赖的。

I go back to what we talked about regarding the consumer that we're executing our strategy, which is around lifestyle, it's direct to consumer And back to Levi's, like we're a brand that people trust.

我们的产品质量非常高，业务也做了细分。

We're so high quality and our business, is segmented.

我们有经典的红标李维斯，这也是大家最熟悉的部分。

So we've got the core Red Tab Levi's, which most people know us for.

还有Signature系列，今年上半年表现非常强劲，主要在沃尔玛、亚马逊这些渠道销售。

We have the signature brand Levi Strauss, which first half business is really strong, that's sold in like Walmart, Amazon.

另外我们推出了新的蓝标系列，定位超高端，我们称之为奢侈牛仔，卖200美元一条的牛仔裤，这个业务增长很快。

And then we've got our new blue tab, which is in this super premium, what we call it denim luxury, but we're selling jeans for $200 that business is growing.

我们在100美元以上的牛仔裤细分市场中，市场份额还在持续提升。

And we're actually gaining share in that $100 plus denim segment.

我还想补充一点，我们在这一细分市场的男装和女装领域都提升了份额，年轻人这块也不例外。

I would mention too, I mentioned gaining share in men's and women's in this part of the denim segment, also with youth.

我们在年轻人中也在扩大市场份额。

We're gaining share with youth.

这对我们的未来至关重要。

And that is so key to the future of our

业务。

business.

最重要的一点。

Number one.

明白了。

Okay.

最后一个问题，你对你们的目标消费者群体似乎很有信心，但总体来看，你觉得现在的消费者状况怎么样？

So last question, you sound, upbeat about your segment of the consumer, but do you feel just in general the consumer's okay right now?

我觉得

I

大家都在密切关注这一点。

think all watching it really closely.

消费者现在看到和感受到的东西变化很多，你提到的油价之类的，方方面面都有影响。

There is a lot of dynamic aspects to what the consumer is seeing, observing, you mentioned gas prices, what have you.

所以我们一直密切关注这些变化。

So we're present to that.

我们跟消费者和销售渠道都保持着非常紧密的联系。

We're staying super close to our consumers and our channels.

我们跟批发合作伙伴的合作也非常紧密。

We work very closely with our wholesale partners.

对我们来说，执行必须到位。

And for us, we have got to execute.

一旦消费者手头紧了，我们就得加倍努力。

When consumer wallets get tighter, we have to work harder.

对执行的要求非常高。

The bar on execution is super high.

我特别为团队感到骄傲，从产品到营销，他们做得真的很出色。

And I am just so proud of the team and how they're executing from product to marketing.

你们可能看到我们在李维斯体育场做的那个遮蔽标志，我们始终紧跟文化中心，让一线团队、员工和门店造型师真正贴近消费者，与他们互动。

You may have seen what we did with the redacted logo at Levi's Stadium, staying super relevant in the center of culture to have the teams on the ground, our associates, our stylists in our stores and how they interact with consumers.

所以我们只专注于能掌控的部分，同时对周围环境保持高度敏感。

So we're controlling what we can control, but staying very mindful of the environment

周围的环境。

around us.

你们把控得真不错。

Well, you're controlling very well.

这些数据太出色了。

These were a terrific set of numbers.

恭喜你们。

Congratulations to you.

你们之前承诺的，全都实现了。

Everything that you promised, you have delivered on.

再好的表现也不过如此了。

You can't ask for more than that.

米歇尔·戈斯，李维斯公司的总裁兼首席执行官。

Michelle Goss, president and CEO of Levi Strauss.

每次请您做客节目都特别棒。

Always great to have you on the show.

非常感谢，吉姆。

Thank you so much, Jim.

那笔钱已经回来了。

That money's back.

祝你休息得愉快。

You have a good break.

接下来，大家有问题要问。

Coming up, you've got questions.

克雷默来一一解答。

Cramer's got the answers.

接下来进入快速问答环节，准备好迎接一场火力全开的挑战吧。

Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.

接下来闪电问答就结束了。

And then the lightning round is over.

你准备好了吗？其实我也没那么在意。

Are you ready, I don't care so much.

还有佛罗里达·斯图尔特。

And Florida Stewart.

嗨，吉姆。

Hey, Jim.

来自阳光明媚的迈阿密。

Booy up from sunny Miami,

你喊的是

and you shout

别担心。

out for worry.

哦，当然了，老兄。

Oh, absolutely, man.

咱们开始干活吧。

Let's go to work.

咱们现在有什么？

What do we got?

咱们现在有什么？

What do we got?

好的。

Okay.

你提到美国门店的销量被压得很厉害，但国内数字销售额已经占到总销售额的23%，他们还在推新的AI自助点餐系统来改善利润率。

So you've hammered the stock on US traffic, but did domestic digital sales just hit 23% of their mix, and they're rolling out fresh AI drive throughs to fix margins.

新一高管团队正大力推广这项技术来降低人力成本，但数字效率的提升能赶得上温迪斯面临的美国消费者疲软吗？

With a new c suite scaling this tech to cut labor costs, can digital efficiency outrun The US consumer slump in Wendy's?

天哪。

Jeez.

我不确定。

I don't know.

你看看麦当劳的股价吧。

I I mean, take a look at McDonald's stock.

连麦当劳也受到冲击了。

Even McDonald's is getting hit.

这一整个板块都特别艰难。

This group is very, very challenged.

温迪的特许经营费根本不够强，想靠这个实现逆转，没你说的那么容易。

And Wendy's has got franchise fees that are not strong enough, think, to make this turnaround be as easy as you make it sound.

所以我不建议持有这只股票。

So I'm gonna say no to owning that stock.

我们连线纽约的比尔。

Let's go to Bill in New York.

比尔，你好。

Bill.

吉姆在纽约上州得到了来自IAF第842分会的大力支持。

Jim got a big Upstate New York bully up from the boys and I at IAF local eight forty two.

所以我平时就盯着那些按钮看，其实就是这样。

So watching buttons for, like, that's what I

我想听这个。

wanna hear.

我和我爸一起看节目，是他让我对股市产生了兴趣。

Off the show with my dad, and he sparked my interest in the market.

对。

Yes.

这正是我想要的。

That's what I want.

我看了一下，是的。

Looking yeah.

我需要一些关于 Ampreus 科技公司的建议。

Need some guidance with Ampreus Technologies.

我买入时的价格是 2.46 美元。

I got in at $2.46.

我以每股20.44美元的价格减仓了40%，把资金重新配置到了别处。

I trimmed 40% of my holdings at $20.44 a share, reinvested elsewhere.

最近的决策不错，但跌破突破位后的走势简直一塌糊涂。

The recent decisions are good, but the chart after the failed breakout is ugly all over.

我是该把剩下的仓位平掉，落袋为安，还是继续持有，等再跌一点再考虑长期加仓？

Do I trade the rest and take my gains, or do I hold it and consider buying in a further weakness long term?

不对。

No.

这情况挺好的。

This is a good situation.

这样挺好。

This is good.

我喜欢这个走势。

I I like it.

不对。

No.

我其实正打算再买一些，重新进场。

I would actually be thinking about getting back in, buy some more.

这是个不错的投机机会。

It's good spec.

我们转到马克和巴特比那里。

Let's go to Mark and Bartleby.

马克。

Mark.

嗨，吉姆。

Hi, Jim.

坦帕，佛罗里达那边涨得挺猛。

A big up of Tampa, Florida.

我知道，有印象。

Oh, I know it.

好多年前，这只股票股价超过一百美元呢。

Years ago, this stock was more than a $100 a share.

从那以后，它的走势就像心电图一样起伏不定。

It's been like an EKG monitor ever since.

后来它把股息砍了一半，还把欧洲业务卖了，套现更多资金。

It then cut its dividend in half and sold its European operations for more cash.

过去一年里，股价跌到了40块。

It dropped over the last year to 40.

最近又回升到82块，我现在觉得当初该卖了。

Recently, it came back to 82, and I feel I should have sold.

现在股价是55块。

Currently, it's 55.

我该现在卖吗？或者你认为它未来会涨到什么价位？

Should I sell, or what target price do you feel it'll be going forward?

这只股票是LYB，莱昂巴兹尔。

The stock is l y b, lion basil.

明白了。

Okay.

我觉得它已经反弹回来了。

I think it's I think bounce it's back.

它的市盈率只有六倍。

It sells the six times earnings.

这是一只重度依赖大宗商品的股票。

It's a heavy commodity stock.

它的表现其实跟中国息息相关。

It actually depends on China.

中国现在没怎么下单，但我得说一点。

China's not ordering that much, but I will say this.

现在它的价格很低，股息率有5%。

It's inexpensive right here with a 5% yield.

我对它目前的走势并不担心。

I'm not worried about what's happening with it.

但如果它再次反弹，一定要果断卖出。

But if it bounces, please make a move and Sell.

卖出。

Sell.

卖出。

Sell.

各位，这就是闪电环节的结论。

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.

闪电环节由嘉信理财赞助。

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

接下来，克拉默将聚焦一位分析师对SpaceX股票的看法，并解释这为何如此重要。

Coming up, Cramer's shining a light on one analyst's take on SpaceX's stock stock and explaining why it's so important.

接下来。

Next.

我很少会主动找研究报告的作者签名，但这次我实在忍不住，去追着摩根士丹利的杰出分析师亚当·乔纳斯要签名。他刚发布了那份题为《人工智能的最后边疆：首次覆盖，超配，目标价300美元》的报告，分析的就是SpaceX的股票。

It's not often that I seek an autograph from the author of a piece of research, but I couldn't resist pursuing Adam Jonas, the brilliant analyst of Morgan Stanley, who wrote the just released AI's Final Frontier Initiate at Overweigh, price target $300, about the stock of SpaceX.

亚当来我们节目谈了他的这份长篇报告，还有马斯克新上市的股票。和往常一样，他还是那么低调谦虚。

Adam came on our network to talk about his tome and Elon Musk's newly minted stock, and as always, he was way too self effacing.

他的工作简直太出色了，这篇报告论证严密、非常扎实。

His work is flat out excellent, and this piece was extremely rigorous and well argued.

让我来给你点评一下这份137页的报告。

So let me give you my review of this 137 page manifesto.

首先，报告的核心观点是，SpaceX能够大规模地将能源转化为智能。

First, the overarching theme of the piece is that SpaceX can convert energy into intelligence at scale.

通过这种方式，这家公司拥有——quote——在未来一年内通过多种消费和企业级解决方案实现盈利的潜力——end quote。

By doing that, the company has, and I quote, the optionality to monetize through a range of consumer enterprise solutions for the next year, end quote.

那它到底要靠什么盈利呢？

And what will it monetize?

通过Starlink进行通信，这是一个全球性的宽带系统，性能更好，因为——说白了，信号更稳定。

Communications through Starlink, which can be worldwide broadband system that works better because it's well, I've it's clearer.

延迟更低。

It has less latency.

成本也更低。

It's cheaper.

这有什么不好的？

What's not to like?

他说，个人用户特别喜欢，主要在海外。

Individuals, he says, love it, mostly overseas.

我用的就是这个。

That's where I have it.

但乔纳斯也看好企业市场的需求。

But Jonas is betting on strong enterprise demand too.

大钱就在这里面。

That's where the big money's gonna be.

还有星链的长期机会。

Then there's the long term Starlink opportunity.

所有需要传输数据的设备——无人机、机器人、自动驾驶汽车，都会用上星链。

Every data transmitting device, drones, robots, autonomous vehicles, we use Starlink.

机器人在这里的增长空间会非常大。

Robots will be a huge part of the growth here.

我知道这听起来可能有点夸张，但乔纳斯认为，到2040年，机器人数量可能达到22亿台。

I know this might seem a bit hyperbolic, but Jonas believes there might be as many as 2,200,000,000 robots by 2040.

他估算星链的连接收入将达到6880亿美元，其中34%来自机器人。

He's using a Starlink connectivity revenue number for $688,000,000,000, 34% of that coming from robots.

自动驾驶汽车、无人机、电动垂直起降飞行器，这类设备加起来占了剩下的部分。

Autonomous vehicles, drones, electric powered takeoff and landing vehicles, you know, that kind of stuff, that accounts for the rest.

SpaceX有一个关键项目叫轨道计算，意思是在太空中建立数据中心。

Now there's a key component of SpaceX called orbital compute, and that means data centers in space.

SpaceX的这个Mosaic板块最近备受关注，因为听起来简直超前得离谱。

This portion of SpaceX Mosaic has gotten a lot of publicity because it sounds, let's say, way ahead of his time.

我们知道埃隆·马斯克想把数据中心放到太空，主要是为了解决散热问题。

We know that Elon Musk wants to put data centers in space because they want to have heat problems.

太空中非常寒冷，而且在大气层外能捕获更多的太阳能。

It's really cold up there, and they can collect a lot more power from the sun outside the atmosphere.

目前，地球上一些数据中心正被这两个问题搞得焦头烂额。

Those two issues are creating havoc in some of the locals of terrestrial data centers right now.

你可能已经读过相关内容，或者很快就会看到。

You've probably read about that or maybe your next one.

只要SpaceX有足够的卫星容量把数据传回地面，一旦这些数据中心进入轨道，成本就会大幅下降。

They'll be cheaper once they get up there as long as SpaceX has the satellite capacity to beam everything back down.

一开始这似乎让乔纳斯很困惑，但随后又让他看到了希望。

And there's the trick that at first seems to bedevil Jonas, but then makes him hopeful.

SpaceX能否成功，关键在于马斯克能否降低每次发射的成本，并实现火箭的重复使用，从而实现多次甚至每日发射。

SpaceX only works if Musk can get the cost down for each launch and be able to reuse rockets so there can be multiple launches, perhaps even daily.

整个计划能否落地，核心在于执行。

The critical part of the whole operation rests on execution.

一开始看起来简直让人望而生畏。

And at first, it seems pretty darn daunting.

但当乔纳斯逐一列出马斯克迄今取得的成就，对比整个行业的其他公司时，你就没那么担心了。

Then you get comfortable as Jonas outlines success Musk has had so far versus everyone else in the industry.

当然，整个项目所需的投入将是一个惊人的数字。

Of course, the whole shebang will cost a staggering amount of money.

这感觉就像，你现在入手，就像是投进了一个靠风投推动、打算多次稀释融资才能走到目标的早期项目。

It almost feels like if you buy now, you're really getting into some sort of say early venture capital backed business that wants to do multiple dilutive financing to get to where it has to go.

但你还没来得及觉得这负担太重、自己扛不住，乔纳斯又给你来了个意外——他指出，太空业务其实只占他300美元目标价的一小部分。

But before you think maybe it's too much for you, too heavy to lift, Jonas surprises you again by explaining the space itself is actually a small part of his $300 price target.

仅占基础情景的3%。

Just 3% of the base case.

真正支撑这家公司的是海量的地面业务收入。

There's a ton of terrestrial revenue that makes this company work.

他可不是在赌火星采矿。

It's not like he's betting on Mars mining.

我们还不知道马斯克能不能做成这件事。

We don't know if Musk can pull this one off.

但如果你相信他能成，如果你意识到他的努力关乎国家利益，尤其是应对中国，而且能获得政府支持，那300美元的目标价就没那么离谱了。

But if you think he can, if you recognize that we'll recognize his effort is a national's necessity, particularly against the Chinese, and can get some government backing, then maybe the $300 price target isn't all that crazy.

这反而成了买入的理由。

That cuts in favor of buying some.

也许现在可以买一点，如果打算长期持有，等价格再低一点时再加仓。

Maybe buy some here, and then buy some a little bit lower if you're in for the long haul.

乔纳斯是个老师，甚至像先知一样，确实帮很多人赚到了钱。

Jonas is a teacher, maybe even a prophet, one who certainly helped many make a profit.

他的签名附带了一条认真的警告，不是开玩笑，而是他想传达的核心信息。

His signature came with a warning, not in jest, that he wanna communicate.

亲爱的吉姆，机器人就要来了。

Dear Jim, the robots are coming.

保持人性。

Stay human.

这话我喜欢。

I like that.

我总说， somewhere 总有个牛市存在。

I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere.

我保证，我一定能找到它。

I promise I'd find it

只是为了

just for

你在这儿看净资金情况。

you right here on net money.

我是吉姆·克拉默。

I'm Jim Cramer.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.

吉姆·克拉默在本播客中表达的所有观点均为他个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能曾通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Cramer on television, radio, internet or another medium.

您不应将克拉默的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引，而仅应将其视为他的个人看法。

You should not treat any opinion expressed by Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his opinion.

克拉默的观点基于他所认为可靠的资讯，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整或准确，也不应依赖这些信息做出决策。

Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的《疯狂金钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer。

To view the full mad money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoney disclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会会议室携手Fanatics Fest，共同探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念与战略规划。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Board Room join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.